Modified Reference Point Index (mRPI) and a decision tree for deriving uncertainty factors: A practical approach to cumulative risk assessment of food contaminant mixtures

Probabilistic assessment of the cumulative risk from dietary heavy metal exposure in Chongqing, China using a hazard-driven approach

Cumulative risk assessment is significant for evaluating the combined exposure to multiple substances, but its widespread acceptance and application have been limited due to the complexity of clarifying and assessing actual exposure. In this study, we conducted a cumulative risk assessment based on hazard-driven criteria to evaluate the co-exposure to elemental contaminants in the diet of the population in Chongqing Municipality. The cumulative risk was calculated and evaluated using Monte Carlo modeling and the modified Reference Point Index (mRPI) method. Neurotoxicity and nephrotoxicity were identified as the main toxic endpoints, and the final evaluation elements included were Pb, Cd, As, and Hg. The results showed that the combined mRPI values for neurotoxicity and nephrotoxicity, resulting from exposure to the four heavy metals, ranged from 0.922 to 4.835 and 1.306 to 7.031, respectively. Cd and Pb were the primary contributors to nephrotoxicity, while Pb was the main contributor to neurotoxicity. The results indicated that combined dietary exposure to Pb, Cd, As, and Hg may pose risks of neurotoxicity and nephrotoxicity, with the combined exposure likely amplifying this risk compared to exposure to individual heavy metal elements. mRPI proves to be a more suitable index for cumulative risk assessment using a hazard-driven approach compared to other indexes, as it is derived based on specific studies and endpoints.

Review of the Terminology, Approaches, and Formulations Used in the Guidelines on Quantitative Risk Assessment of Chemical Hazards in Food

This paper reviews the published terminology, mathematical models, and the possible approaches used to characterise the risk of foodborne chemical hazards, particularly pesticides, metals, mycotoxins, acrylamide, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The results confirmed the wide variability of the nomenclature used, e.g., 28 different ways of referencing exposure, 13 of cancer risk, or 9 of slope factor. On the other hand, a total of 16 equations were identified to formulate all the risk characterisation parameters of interest. Therefore, the present study proposes a terminology and formulation for some risk characterisation parameters based on the guidelines of international organisations and the literature review. The mathematical model used for non-genotoxic hazards is a ratio in all cases. However, the authors used the probability of cancer or different ratios, such as the margin of exposure (MOE) for genotoxic hazards. For each effect studied per hazard, the non-genotoxic effect was mostly studied in pesticides (79.73%), the genotoxic effect was mostly studied in PAHs (71.15%), and both effects were mainly studied in metals (59.4%). The authors of the works reviewed generally opted for a deterministic approach, although most of those who assessed the risk for mycotoxins or the ratio and risk for acrylamide used the probabilistic approach.

Combined chronic dietary exposure to four nephrotoxic metals exceeds tolerable intake levels in the adult population of 10 European countries

A mixture risk assessment (MRA) for four metals relevant to chronic kidney disease (CKD) was performed. Dietary exposure to cadmium or lead alone exceeded the respective reference values in the majority of the 10 European countries included in our study. When the dietary exposure to those metals and inorganic mercury and inorganic arsenic was combined following a classical or personalised modified reference point index (mRPI) approach, not only high exposure (95th percentile) estimates but also the mean exceeded the tolerable intake of the mixture in all countries studied. Cadmium and lead contributed most to the combined exposure, followed by inorganic arsenic and inorganic mercury. The use of conversion factors for inorganic arsenic and inorganic mercury from total arsenic and total mercury concentration data was a source of uncertainty. Other uncertainties were related to the use of different principles to derive reference points. Yet, MRA at the target organ level, as performed in our study, could be used as a way to efficiently prioritise assessment groups for higher-tier MRA. Since the combined exposure to the four metals exceeded the tolerable intake, we recommend a refined MRA based on a common, specific nephrotoxic effect and relative potency factors (RPFs) based on a similar effect size.

A case study of neurodevelopmental risks from combined exposures to lead, methyl-mercury, inorganic arsenic, polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers and fluoride

We performed a mixture risk assessment (MRA) case study of dietary exposure to the food contaminants lead, methylmercury, inorganic arsenic (iAs), fluoride, non-dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (NDL-PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), all substances associated with declines in cognitive abilities measured as IQ loss. Most of these chemicals are frequently measured in human biomonitoring studies. A component-based, personalised modified reference point index (mRPI) approach, in which we expressed the exposures and potencies of our chosen substances as lead equivalent values, was applied to perform a MRA for dietary exposures. We conducted the assessment for four different age groups (toddlers, children, adolescents, and women aged 18-45 years) in nine European countries. Populations in all countries considered exceeded combined tolerable levels at median exposure levels. NDL-PCBs in fish, other seafood and dairy, lead in grains and fruits, methylmercury in fish and other seafoods, and fluoride in water contributed most to the combined exposure. We identified uncertainties for the likelihood of co-exposure, assessment group membership, endpoint-specific reference values (ESRVs) based on epidemiological (lead, methylmercury, iAs, fluoride and NDL-PCBs) and animal data (PBDE), and exposure data. Those uncertainties lead to a complex pattern of under- and overestimations, which would require probabilistic modelling based on expert knowledge elicitation for integration of the identified uncertainties into an overall uncertainty estimate. In addition, the identified uncertainties could be used to refine future MRA for cognitive decline.

Priorities and Challenges in Methodology for Human Health Risk Assessment from Combined Exposure to Multiple Chemicals

This paper reviews key elements in the assessment of human health effects from combined exposure to multiple chemicals taking into consideration current knowledge and challenges to identify areas where scientific advancement is mostly needed and proposes a decision-making scheme on the basis of existing methods and tools. The assumption of dose addition and estimation of the hazard index (HI) is considered as a starting point in component-based risk assessments. When, based on the generic HI approach, an unacceptable risk is identified, more specific risk assessment options may be implemented sequentially or in parallel depending on problem formulation, characteristics of the chemical group under assessment, exposure levels, data availability and resources. For prospective risk assessments, the reference point index/margin of exposure (RPI/MOET) (Option 1) or modified RPI/normalized MOET (mRPI/nMOET) (Option 2) approaches may be implemented focusing on the specific mixture effect. Relative potency factors (RPFs) may also be used in the RPI approach since a common uncertainty factor for each mixture component is introduced in the assessment. Increased specificity in the risk assessment may also be achieved when exposure of selected population groups is considered (Option 3/exposure). For retrospective risk assessments, human biomonitoring data available for vulnerable population groups (Option 3/susceptibility) may present more focused scenarios for consideration in human health risk management decisions. In data-poor situations, the option of using the mixture assessment factor (MAF) is proposed (Option 4), where an additional uncertainty factor is applied on each mixture component prior to estimating the HI. The magnitude of the MAF may be determined by the number of mixture components, their individual potencies and their proportions in the mixture, as previously reported. It is acknowledged that implementation of currently available methods and tools for human health risk assessment from combined exposure to multiple chemicals by risk assessors will be enhanced by ongoing scientific developments on new approach methodologies (NAMs), integrated approaches to testing and assessment (IATA), uncertainty analysis tools, data sharing platforms, risk assessment software as well as guideline development to meet legislative requirements.

Data-Driven Analysis of Risk-Assessment Methods for Cold Food Chains

The problem of cold-chain food safety is becoming increasingly prominent. Cold food chain risk assessment is an important way to ensure cold-chain food safety. Using CiteSpace, this study analyzes the knowledge map of research hotspots in the field of cold-chain food safety over the past 18 years, identifies the research keywords, presents the centrality statistics, and calculates the cluster values and average cluster contour values. Adopting a data-driven perspective, risk-assessment methods for cold food chains are summarized based on qualitative risk assessment, quantitative risk assessment, and comprehensive qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. The advantages and disadvantages of each are summarized. Finally, the problems and challenges in current cold food chain risk-assessment research are summarized in three aspects: the data credibility of cold food chain traceability systems, cold-chain food safety audit methods, and nontraditional cold food chain risk assessment. Suggestions are given for strengthening the cold food chain risk-assessment system to provide a decision-making reference to help regulatory authorities take risk prevention and control measures.

Microbiological Risk Assessment in Foods: Background and Tools, with a Focus on Risk Ranger

Risk assessment is an important phase of the food production path; it is strictly related to the processing chain as a necessary step for safe foods. This paper represents a contribution to understanding what is and how risk assessment could be conducted; it aims to provide some information on the structure of risk assessment, the tools for its identification and measurement and the importance of risk assessment for correct communication. In this context, after a focus on the background and on some commonly used tools (Risk Ranger, FDA-iRisk, decision tree, among others), the paper describes how to perform risk assessment through three case studies: lettuce (for Listeria monocytogenes), chicken salad (for Escherichia coli), and fresh egg pasta (for Staphylococcus aureus) in the first step, and then a comparison of risk for chicken salad contaminated by different pathogens (E. coli O157:H7, Campylobacter spp. and Salmonella sp.). As a final step, a critical evaluation of Risk Ranger was carried out, pointing out its pros and cons.

A preliminary cumulative risk assessment of Diethylhexyl phthalate and Dibutyl phthalate based on the inhibition of embryonic development via the PPARγ pathway

BACKGROUND

Diethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) and dibutyl phthalate (DBP) are the two most widely used plasticizers (PAEs) that may act as endocrine disruptors and cause developmental toxicity.

METHODS

We measured intrauterine exposure to DEHP and DBP which are the two most widely used phthalates (PAEs) in the cord blood of 50 postpartum women using ultra-HPLC-tandem mass spectrometry and solid-phase extraction. The embryotoxicity of DEHP and DBP was evaluated using the human embryonic stem cell test (hEST). Based on the intrauterine exposure concentration of DEHP and DBP in pregnant women and the reference point of toxic effects in hEST, we used the reference point index (RPI) method to assess the cumulative risk of DBP and DEHP.

RESULTS

The mean concentrations of DEHP and DBP were 99.9 μg/L and 24.7 μg/L, respectively. DEHP and DBP were weakly embryotoxic, and the benchmark dose lower confidence intervals were 29.99 and 0.99 μg/mL, respectively, as determined using hEST. Both DEHP and DBP inhibited embryonic development via PPAR/PTEN/Akt signal pathway.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that the cumulative risk in pregnant women with a high level of exposure should receive more attention in the future.

Risk Assessment of Dietary Exposure to Organophosphorus Flame Retardants in Children by Using HBM-Data

Due to their extensive usage, organophosphorus flame retardants (OPFRs) have been detected in humans and in the environment. Human are exposed to OPFRs via inhalation of indoor air, dust uptake or dietary uptake through contaminated food and drinking water. Only recently, few studies addressing dietary exposure to OPFRs were published. In this study, we used human biomonitoring (HBM) data of OPFRs to estimate how much the dietary intake may contribute to the total exposure. We estimated by reverse dosimetry, the daily intake of tris (2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP), tris (1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TCIPP), tris (1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCIPP) for children using HBM data from studies with sampling sites in Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Slovenia and Slovakia. For estimating the dietary exposure, a deterministic approach was chosen. The occurrence data of selected food categories were used from a published Belgium food basket study. Since the occurrence data were left-censored, the Lower bound (LB)—Upper bound (UB) approach was used. The estimated daily intake (EDI) calculated on the basis of urine metabolite concentrations ranged from 0.03 to 0.18 µg/kg bw/d for TDCIPP, from 0.05 to 0.17 µg/kg bw/d for TCIPP and from 0.02 to 0.2 µg/kg bw/d for TCEP. Based on national food consumption data and occurrence data, the estimated dietary intake for TDCIPP ranged from 0.005 to 0.09 µg/kg bw/d, for TCIPP ranged from 0.037 to 0.2 µg/kg bw/d and for TCEP ranged from 0.007 to 0.018 µg/kg bw/d (summarized for all countries). The estimated dietary intake of TDCIPP contributes 11–173% to the EDI, depending on country and LB-UB scenario. The estimated dietary uptake of TCIPP was in all calculations, except in Belgium and France, above 100%. In the case of TCEP, it is assumed that the dietary intake ranges from 6 to 57%. The EDI and the estimated dietary intake contribute less than 3% to the reference dose (RfD). Therefore, the estimated exposure to OPFRs indicates a minimal health risk based on the current knowledge of available exposure, kinetic and toxicity data. We were able to show that the dietary exposure can have an impact on the general exposure based on our underlying exposure scenarios.

Combined Exposure to Multiple Mycotoxins: An Example of Using a Tiered Approach in a Mixture Risk Assessment

Humans are exposed to mycotoxins on a regular basis. Exposure to a mixture of mycotoxins may, therefore, result in a combination of adverse effects, or trigger the same effects. This should be accounted for when assessing the combined risk of multiple mycotoxins. Here, we show the outcome of using different approaches in assessing the risks related to the combined exposure to mycotoxins. We performed a tiered approach using assessment groups with a common target organ (kidney, liver and haematologic system), or a common adverse effect (phenomenon) (reduced white blood cell count), to combine the exposure to mycotoxins. The combined exposure was calculated for the individuals in this assessment, using the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) tool. The risk related to this combined exposure was assessed using toxicological reference values, e.g., health based guidance values. We show that estimating the combined risk by adding the single compounds' risk distributions slightly overestimates the combined risk in the 95th percentile, as compared to combining the exposures at an individual level. We also show that relative potency factors can be used to refine the mixture risk assessment, as compared to ratios of toxicological reference values with different effect sizes and assessment factors.

Integrating Selection and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures: A Novel Approach Applied to a Breast Milk Survey

BACKGROUND

One of the main challenges of modern risk assessment is to account for combined exposure to the multitude of various substances present in food and the environment.

OBJECTIVE

The present work proposes a methodological approach to perform chemical risk assessment of contaminant mixtures across regulatory silos regarding an extensive range of substances and to do so when comprehensive relevant data concerning the specific effects and modes of action of the mixture components are not available.

METHODS

We developed a complete step-by-step approach using statistical methods to prioritize substances involved in combined exposure, and we used a component-based approach to cumulate the risk using dose additivity. The most relevant toxicological end point and the associated reference point were selected from the literature to construct a toxicological threshold for each substance.

DISCUSSION

By applying the proposed method to contaminants in breast milk, we observed that among the 19 substances comprising the selected mixture, ∑DDT, ∑PCBi, and arsenic were main joint contributors to the risk of neurodevelopmental and thyroid effects for infants. In addition, ∑PCCD/F contributed to the thyroid effect and ∑aldrin-dieldrin to the neurodevelopmental effect. Our case study on contaminants in breast milk demonstrated the importance of crossing regulatory silos when studying mixtures and the importance of identifying risk drivers to regulate the risk related to environmental contamination. Applying this method to another set of data, such as human biomonitoring or in ecotoxicology, will reinforce its relevance for risk assessment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8262.

Guidance Document on Scientific criteria for grouping chemicals into assessment groups for human risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals

This guidance document provides harmonised and flexible methodologies to apply scientific criteria and prioritisation methods for grouping chemicals into assessment groups for human risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals. In the context of EFSA's risk assessments, the problem formulation step defines the chemicals to be assessed in the terms of reference usually through regulatory criteria often set by risk managers based on legislative requirements. Scientific criteria such as hazard-driven criteria can be used to group these chemicals into assessment groups. In this guidance document, a framework is proposed to apply hazard-driven criteria for grouping of chemicals into assessment groups using mechanistic information on toxicity as the gold standard where available (i.e. common mode of action or adverse outcome pathway) through a structured weight of evidence approach. However, when such mechanistic data are not available, grouping may be performed using a common adverse outcome. Toxicokinetic data can also be useful for grouping, particularly when metabolism information is available for a class of compounds and common toxicologically relevant metabolites are shared. In addition, prioritisation methods provide means to identify low-priority chemicals and reduce the number of chemicals in an assessment group. Prioritisation methods include combined risk-based approaches, risk-based approaches for single chemicals and exposure-driven approaches. Case studies have been provided to illustrate the practical application of hazard-driven criteria and the use of prioritisation methods for grouping of chemicals in assessment groups. Recommendations for future work are discussed.

Probabilistic modelling techniques in dietary exposure assessment: application on the risk assessment of cadmium for Austrian adults

Probabilistic exposure and risk assessment of chemical hazards in the diet have increasingly gained ground in recent years as a pragmatic approach for the approximation of reality. This work presents the outcomes of a project which aimed at applying probabilistic techniques for basic modelling of chronic dietary exposure to food contaminants following EFSA guidance. These techniques, based on Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software and on the programming language R, were employed for the risk assessment of cadmium for Austrian adults, enabling the validation and the critical comparison of the two approaches. Harmonisation and optimisation of procedures, refinement of exposure assessment skills and confidence in the results were the main benefits. Data amount and validity were identified as critical parameters, influencing the precision of the results. Cadmium was selected as a case study due to its toxicological properties, its ubiquitous presence in food and the availability of Austrian occurrence data. Similar exposure and risk estimates were generated through MCRA and R in alternative optimistic and pessimistic exposure scenarios, suggesting low levels of concern, except for vegetarians, whose upper tail exposures are close to the established Tolerable Weekly Intake. However, as occurrence data gaps have been identified as the major element of uncertainty, the estimated exposure and risk levels are characterised as underestimated. Grains and grain-based products, potatoes and leafy vegetables are the main contributors to the intake. The results will contribute to risk management and to a future refinement of the assessment.

Chemical Mixture Calculator - A novel tool for mixture risk assessment

Humans are continuously exposed to complex chemical mixtures from foods and the environment. Experimental models in vivo and in vitro have increased our knowledge on how we can predict mixture effects. To accommodate a need for tools for efficient mixture risk assessment across different chemical classes and exposure sources, we have developed fit-for-purpose criteria for grouping of chemicals and a web-based tool for mixture risk assessment. The Chemical Mixture Calculator (available at www.chemicalmixturecalculator.dk) can be used for mixture risk assessment or identification of main drivers of risk. The underlying database includes hazard and exposure estimates for more than 200 chemicals in foods and environment. We present a range of cumulative assessment groups for effects on haematological system, kidney, liver, nervous system, developmental and reproductive system, and thyroid. These cumulative assessment groups are useful for grouping of chemicals at several levels of refinement depending on the question addressed. We present a mixture risk assessment case for phthalates, evaluated with and without contributions from other chemicals with similar effects. This case study shows the usefulness of the tool as a starting point for mixture risk assessment by the risk assessor, and emphasizes that solid scientific insight regarding underlying assumptions and uncertainties is crucial for result interpretation.

A tiered approach to cumulative risk assessment for reproductive and developmental toxicity of food contaminants for the austrian population using the modified Reference Point Index (mRPI)

Through our daily diet, we are exposed to a variety of food contaminants. Yet, assessing the cumulative health risk of chemical mixtures remains a challenge. Using a recently developed method, the modified Reference Point Index (mRPI), the cumulative risks posed by contaminant mixtures were assessed for their effects on reproduction and development. Since these effects can be quite diverse, a tiered approach was adopted to elucidate the risks at a more detailed level based on specific toxicological endpoints. An additional analysis was performed using the modified Maximum Cumulative Ratio (mMCR), which provides the determination of risk-dominating substances in the mixture. Our method represents a novel useful tool to screen and prioritise contaminant mixtures regarding their potential health risks. We found, that in the majority of the calculated scenarios a single substance dominates the cumulative risks. Lead was found to be the primary factor for adverse effects on reproduction and neuronal development of children. Perchlorate was identified as the most prominent risk factor for child development in generalCumulative risks of trichothecenes were dominated by deoxynivalenol. Concerning the impact on pre- and neonatal development, the co-exposure of several substances resulted in increased risks, with none of the considered contaminants dominating substantially.

Cumulative dietary risk assessment overarching different regulatory silos using a margin of exposure approach: A case study with three chemical silos

Risk assessment of chemicals occurring in our diet is commonly performed for single chemicals without considering exposure to other chemicals. We performed a case study on risk assessment of combined dietary exposure to chemicals from different regulatory silos, i.e. pesticides (PPRs), persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and food additives (FAs). Chemicals were grouped into the cumulative assessment group (CAG) liver steatosis using a component-based approach. Based on literature, the CAG included 144 PPRs, 49 POPS and 7 FAs for which concentration data were available. For each silo, chronic combined dietary exposure was assessed for adults and children of nine European countries following the most commonly used exposure methodologies in Europe and by using a relative potency factor approach. For risk characterization, a Margin of Exposure (MOE) was calculated. To overarch the risk across silos, a normalised combined margin of exposure (nMOET) approach was proposed. This case study demonstrated that risk assessment of combined exposure to chemicals can be performed within regulatory silos. It also highlighted important differences in the conservatism of exposure scenarios, the derivation of point of departures and the subsequent acceptable MOEs between the silos. To overarch the risk despite these differences, a nMOET approach can be used.