Climate change produces winners and losers: Differential responses of amphibians in mountain forests of the Near East

Global patterns of human-wildlife spatial associations and implications for differentiating conservation strategies

Understanding the global patterns of human and wildlife spatial associations is essential for pragmatic conservation implementation, yet analytical foundations and indicator-based assessments that would further this understanding are lacking. We integrated the global distributions of 30,664 terrestrial vertebrates and human pressures to map human-nature index (HNI) categories that indicate the extent and intensity of human-wildlife interactions. Along the 2 dimensions of biodiversity and human activity, the HNI allowed placement of terrestrial areas worldwide in one of 4 HNI categories: anthropic (human-dominated areas), wildlife-dominated (little human influence and rich in wildlife), co-occurring (substantial presence of humans and wildlife), and harsh-environment (limited presence of humans and wildlife) areas. The HNI varied considerably among taxonomic groups, and the leading driver of HNI was global climate patterns. Co-occurring regions were the most prevalent (35.9%), and wildlife-dominated and anthropic regions encompassed 26.45% and 6.50% of land area, respectively. Our results highlight the necessity for customizing conservation strategies to regions based on human-wildlife spatial associations and the distribution of existing protected area networks. Human activity and biodiversity should be integrated for complementary strategies to support conservation toward ambitious and pragmatic 30×30 goals.

A synoptic review of the Amphibians of Iran: bibliography, taxonomy, synonymy, distribution, conservation status, and identification key to the eggs, larvae, and adults

This study provides an illustrated account, a comprehensive update of the systematics, and a bibliography of the 15 species of anurans in five families, eight genera; and of the six species of urodeles in two families, four genera in Iran. Bufonidae, with eight species, is the most diverse family; Salamandridae has five species and Ranidae has four species. This study also presents updated identification keys for the eggs, larvae, and metamorphosed amphibians of Iran. We designated specimen NMW 19855.1 as neotype of Pelophylax persicus (Schneider, 1799) comb. nov.. Along with distribution maps obtained from all the reliable localities and museum specimens known at this time, the modelled habitat of species, and for the first time, the National Red List of amphibians based on the IUCN red list categories and criteria. Based on our evaluation we propose to categorize Bufo eichwaldi, Paradactylodon persicus, Neurergus derjugini, and N. kaiseri as Vulnerable at National Red List, and to move Bufotes (Calliopersa) luristanicus, B. (C.) surdus, Firouzophrynus olivaceus, and Rana pseudodalmatina from the category of Least Concern (LC) to Near Threatened (NT). The National Red List of amphibians that we propose has significant implications for endangered species management and conservation. Forty-one percent of amphibian species in Iran are endemic to the country, and more than forty percent of the Iranian amphibians are at risk of extinction. Zagros Mountain forest and Hyrcaniain forests have more than 80% (i.e. 18 species) of the diversity of Iranian amphibians. A considerable amount of scientific literature published on Iranian amphibians in Persian language is not easily accessible to researchers outside Iran. This monograph attempts to remedy the situation and provides broader access to international herpetology. We recognize that taxonomy is always in a state of flux, and the names and synonymies used here reflect our current view.

Potential Geographic Range of the Endangered Reed Parrotbill Paradoxornis heudei under Climate Change

The phenomenon of global climate change can impact the geographic range and biodiversity, thereby heightening the vulnerability of rare species to extinction. The reed parrotbill (Paradoxornis heudei David, 1872) is endemic to central and eastern China, it is mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain and the Northeast Plain. In this study, eight of ten algorithms of the species distribution model (SDM) were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. heudei under current and future climate scenarios and to analyze the possible related climate factors. After checking the collected data, 97 occurrence records of P. heudei were used. The relative contribution rate shows that among the selected climatic variables, temperature annual range (bio7), annual precipitation (bio12), and isothermality (bio3) were the principal climatic factors to limit the habitat suitability of P. heudei. The suitable habitat for P. heudei is primarily concentrated in the central–eastern and northeast plains of China, particularly in the eastern coastal region, spanning a mere area of 57,841 km2. The habitat suitability of P. heudei under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios was predicted to be different under future climatic conditions, but all of them had a larger range than the current one. The species distribution range could expand by more than 100% on average compared with the current range under the four scenarios in 2050, while it could contract by approximately 30% on average relative to the 2050 range in 2070 under different climate change scenarios. In the future, northeastern China may serve as a potential suitable habitat for P. heudei. The changes in the spatial and temporal distributions of P. heudei’s range are of utmost importance in identifying high-priority conservation regions and devising effective management strategies for its preservation.

Distribution update of water deer (Hydropotes inermis) and prediction of their potential distribution in Northeast China

Human interventions have a great potential of spatially cornering and limiting species, therefore investigating the species distribution is one of the most crucial issues for managing wildlife populations and suggesting robust conservation strategies. Water deer (Hydropotes inermis) are widespread in China throughout history and are endemic to East Asia. However, they disappeared from Northeast China for years. We rediscovered the water deer in a previous study in Jilin Province, China. Then, we conducted further research in Northeast China to determine their distribution status, supplying fundamental data for the recovery and expansion of their population. An interview survey, line transect survey and infrared camera monitoring were carried out in some counties/cities in Northeast China from June to December 2021. The results showed that the water deer were distributed in Wuchang city of Heilongjiang Province, Changbai Korean Autonomous County, Baishan Municipal District, Ji'an city, Hunchun city, Huadian city, Antu County and Helong County of Jilin Province, Benxi Manchu Autonomous County, Huanren Manchu Autonomous County, Kuandian Manchu Autonomous County, Fengcheng city and Donggang city of Liaoning Province. The ensemble species distribution model constructed by sdm within the TSS of various models that were set as weight revealed that the potential distribution area of the water deer in the study area was 8764.66 km² (28.77% of the study area). Combining recent studies concerning the distribution of water deer and the current study, we updated the distribution of wild water deer in Northeast China, which is vital for their conservation worldwide.

Ecotoxicological assessment of complex environmental matrices from the lower Paraná River basin

Sediments of aquatic ecosystems constitute the fate of most atmospheric and terrestrial pollutants. Since aquatic organisms, such as amphibians, interact with sediments, the presence of pollutants may affect their survival, growth and reproduction. So, the aim of this study was to evaluate, the sediment and water quality of five sites from the lower basin of the Paraná River (Buenos Aires, Argentina) with different anthropic impacts: Morejón stream (S1), de la Cruz stream upstream (S2) and downstream (S3), Arrecifes river (S4), tributary stream of Arrecifes river (S5). Physicochemical parameters were measured in situ (water) and in laboratory (water and sediment samples). Also, a screening of metals and pesticides was performed. Chronic (504 h) lethal toxicity bioassays were performed exposing Rhinella arenarum larvae to sediment and water samples. Oxidative stress (catalase, superoxide dismutase, glutathione S transferase, reduced glutathione and lipid peroxidation) and genotoxicity (micronuclei test) biomarkers were analyzed at acute (96 h) exposure. According to the calculated water quality index, S1 and S3 showed excellent quality, S2 good quality and, S4 and S5 poor quality. Dissolved oxygen was low in all sites (2.26-5.63 mg/L) and S5 had the highest organic matter content. Copper levels exceeded the limit for the protection of aquatic life in S2 and S4; arsenic levels exceeded its limit in S4; and selenium levels exceeded its limit in S4 and S5. Pesticides were mainly detected in water samples. Sediment from S5 showed higher sulfide and organic matter concentrations. At 504 h, no significant mortality was observed in the control group while S5 caused the greatest mortality (80%), followed by S2 (66.67%), S1 (63.33%), S3 (46.67%) and S4 (43.4%). All samples caused oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation, and samples from S4 also caused genotoxicity. The analysis of sediment and water samples was a suitable approach to assess the effects of water bodies on a native amphibian species.

Does a Moderately Warming Climate Compensate for the Negative Effects of UV-B Radiation on Amphibians at High Altitudes? A Test of Rana kukunoris Living on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Simple Summary

Both the warming climate and ultraviolet-B radiation are notable environmental factors affecting tadpole development. However, the phenotypes of tadpoles living at high altitudes may be improved by moderately warming temperatures, reducing or eliminating the negative effects of oxidative damage caused by cool temperatures or strong ultraviolet-B radiation. To verify this hypothesis, Rana kukunoris tadpoles, which live at high altitudes, were exposed to ultraviolet-B radiation and ultraviolet-B radiation-free environments at 14 (cool temperature) and 22 °C (warm temperature), respectively. Ultraviolet-B radiation and a warm temperature had opposite influences on several traits of the tadpoles, and the moderate temperature could compensate for or override the negative effects of ultraviolet-B radiation by increasing the tadpoles’ preferred body temperature and critical tolerance temperature, thus enhancing the locomotion ability and thermal sensitivity of their antioxidant systems. The dark skin coloration and aggregation behavior of R. kukunoris tadpoles may also be effective strategies for allowing them to resist ultraviolet-B radiation and helping them to better adapt to a warming environment with stronger ultraviolet-B radiation. Thus, a moderate degree of warming may increase the capacity of living organisms to adapt to environmental changes and thus have positive effects on the development of tadpoles living at high altitudes.

Abstract

Both the warming climate and ultraviolet-B radiation (UVBR) are considered to be notable environmental factors affecting amphibian population decline, with particular effects on tadpole development. However, the phenotypes of tadpoles living at high altitudes may be improved by moderately warming temperatures, reducing or eliminating the negative effects of oxidative damage caused by cool temperatures or strong UVBR at high altitudes. To verify this hypothesis, Rana kukunoris tadpoles, which live at high altitudes, were used to test the effect of the interaction of temperature and UVBR on their development and antioxidant systems in a fully factorial design. The tadpoles were exposed to UVBR and UVBR-free environments at 14 (cool temperature) and 22 °C (warm temperature), respectively. UVBR and a warm temperature had opposite influences on several traits of the tadpoles, including their survival, developmental rate, individual size, preferred body temperature, thermal tolerance temperature, oxidative damage, and enzymatic and nonenzymatic antioxidant systems. The moderate temperature could compensate for or override the negative effects of UVBR by increasing the tadpoles’ preferred body temperature and critical tolerance temperature, thus enhancing the locomotion ability and thermal sensitivity of their antioxidant systems. Furthermore, the dark skin coloration and aggregation behavior of R. kukunoris tadpoles may also be effective strategies for allowing them to resist UVBR and helping them to better adapt to a warming environment with stronger UVBR. Thus, it is possible that a moderate degree of warming may increase the capacity of living organisms to adapt to environmental changes and thus have positive effects on the development of tadpoles living at high altitudes.

Ecological niche modelling and climate change in two species groups of huntsman spider genus Eusparassus in the Western Palearctic

The huntsman spiders' genus Eusparassus are apex arthropod predators in desert ecosystems of the Afrotropical and Palearctic ecoregions. The Eusparassus dufouri and E. walckenaeri clades are two distinct taxonomic, phylogenetic, and geographic units concerning morphology, molecular phylogeny, and spatial data; but little is known about their ecological niche. We applied the maximum-entropy approach and modelled ecologic niches of these two phylogenetically closely related clades. Ecological niches of the two clades were compared using identity and background tests and two different metrics, the Schooner's D and Warren's I. We also predicted the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the two clades. The results of the identity test showed that the ecological niches of the two clades were different in geographic space but were similar in environmental space. While results of the background test revealed that the ecological niches of the two clades were similar in geographic and environmental space. This indicated that "niche conservatism" had an important role over the evolutionary time of allopatric diversification. However, the normalized difference vegetation index vs. topographic heterogeneity had influenced the niches of the dufouri and walckenaeri clades, respectively. The analyses recovered that the two clades' climatically suitable habitats will increase under future climate (the year 2070). However, since the two clades are characterized by the narrow range of environmental optimum and the accordingly high limits of tolerance, they are vulnerable to climate change.

Estimating the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Garuga forrestii, an Endemic Species in China

Understanding how species have adapted and responded to past climate provides insights into the present geographical distribution and may improve predictions of how biotic communities will respond to future climate change. Therefore, estimating the distribution and potentially suitable habitats is essential for conserving sensitive species such as Garuga forrestii W.W.Sm., a tree species endemic to China. The potential climatic zones of G. forrestii were modelled in MaxEnt software using 24 geographic points and nine environmental variables for the current and future (2050 and 2070) conditions under two climate representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The resulting ecological niche models (ENMs) demonstrated adequate internal assessment metrics, with all AUC and TSS values being >0.79 and a pROC of >1.534. Our results also showed that the distribution of G. forrestii was primarily influenced by temperature seasonality (% contribution = 12%), elevation (% contribution = 27.5%), and precipitation of the wettest month (% contribution = 35.6%). Our findings also indicated that G. forrestii might occupy an area of 309,516.2 km2 in southwestern China. We note that the species has a potential distribution in three provinces, including Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guangxi. A significant decline in species range is observed under the future worst case of high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), with about 19.5% and 20% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. Similarly, higher elevations shift northward to southern parts of Sichuan province in 2050 and 2070. Thus, this study helps highlight the vulnerability of the species, response to future climate and provides an insight to assess habitat suitability for conservation management.

Declines in rodent abundance and diversity track regional climate variability in North American drylands

Regional long-term monitoring can enhance the detection of biodiversity declines associated with climate change, improving future projections by reducing reliance on space-for-time substitution and increasing scalability. Rodents are diverse and important consumers in drylands, regions defined by the scarcity of water that cover 45% of Earth's land surface and face increasingly drier and more variable climates. We analyzed abundance data for 22 rodent species across grassland, shrubland, ecotone, and woodland ecosystems in the southwestern USA. Two time series (1995-2006 and 2004-2013) coincided with phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which influences drought in southwestern North America. Regionally, rodent species diversity declined 20%-35%, with greater losses during the later time period. Abundance also declined regionally, but only during 2004-2013, with losses of 5% of animals captured. During the first time series (wetter climate), plant productivity outranked climate variables as the best regional predictor of rodent abundance for 70% of taxa, whereas during the second period (drier climate), climate best explained variation in abundance for 60% of taxa. Temporal dynamics in diversity and abundance differed spatially among ecosystems, with the largest declines in woodlands and shrublands of central New Mexico and Colorado. Which species were winners or losers under increasing drought and amplified interannual variability in drought depended on ecosystem type and the phase of the PDO. Fewer taxa were significant winners (18%) than losers (30%) under drought, but the identities of winners and losers differed among ecosystems for 70% of taxa. Our results suggest that the sensitivities of rodent species to climate contributed to regional declines in diversity and abundance during 1995-2013. Whether these changes portend future declines in drought-sensitive consumers in the southwestern USA will depend on the climate during the next major PDO cycle.

Species distribution models for predicting the habitat suitability of Chinese fire-bellied newt Cynops orientalis under climate change

Climate change influences species geographical distribution and diversity pattern. The Chinese fire-bellied newt (Cynops orientalis) is an endemic species distributed in East-central China, which has been classified as near-threatened species recently due to habitat destruction and degradation and illegal trade in the domestic and international pet markets. So far, little is known about the spatial distribution of the species. Based on bioclimatic data of the current and future climate projections, we modeled the change in suitable habitat for C. orientalis by ten algorithms, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. In this study, 46 records of C. orientalis from East China and 8 bioclimatic variables were used. Among the ten modeling algorithms, four (GAM, GBM, Maxent, and RF) were selected according to their predictive abilities. The current habitat suitability showed that C. orientalis had a relatively wide but fragmented distribution, and it encompassed 41,862 km2. The models suggested that precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio6) had the highest contribution to the model. This study revealed that C. orientalis is sensitive to climate change, which will lead to a large range shift. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of range shifts for C. orientalis should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for amphibians in East China.

Potential Distribution of Amphibians with Different Habitat Characteristics in Response to Climate Change in South Korea

Simple Summary

Amphibian species are one of one of the groups most vulnerable to climate change according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Limited research has been conducted investigating the effects of climate change on amphibian species in South Korea. In our study, we aimed to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of 16 of the 18 species of amphibians currently reported in South Korea. Altogether, 30,281 occurrence points, six bioclimatic variables, and one environmental variable (altitude) were used in modeling. Moreover, we classified 16 Korean amphibians into three groups based on their habitat characteristics: wetland amphibians (Group 1), migrating amphibians (Group 2), and forest-dwelling amphibians (Group 3). Altitude has been predicted to be a major factor in present amphibian distributions in South Korea. In general, our results show that the seven species in Group 1 should be the most resistant to climate change. The five migrating amphibians (Group 2) should decline with preferred habitat reductions. The forest-dwelling amphibian species (Group 3) are the most vulnerable to climate change and their protection requires the immediate implementation of conservation strategies. We will continue to refine our model as it evolves into a useful tool for our endeavor to preserve South Korea’s amphibians as climate change progresses.

Abstract

Amphibian species are highly vulnerable to climate change with significant species decline and extinction predicted worldwide. However, there are very limited studies on amphibians in South Korea. Here, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on different habitat groups (wetland amphibians, Group 1; migrating amphibians, Group 2; and forest-dwelling amphibians, Group 3) under future climate change and land cover change in South Korea using a maximum entropy modelling approach. Our study revealed that all amphibians would suffer substantial loss of suitable habitats in the future, except Lithobates catesbeianus, Kaloula borealis, and Karsenia koreana. Similarly, species richness for Groups 2 and 3 will decline by 2030, 2050, and 2080. Currently, amphibian species are widely distributed across the country; however, in future, suitable habitats for amphibians would be concentrated along the Baekdudaegan Mountain Range and the southeastern region. Among the three groups, Group 3 amphibians are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change; therefore, immediate conservation action is needed to protect them. We expect this study could provide crucial baseline information required for the government to design climate change mitigation strategies for indigenous amphibians.

Applying species distribution models in public health research by predicting snakebite risk using venomous snakes' habitat suitability as an indicating factor

Snakebite envenoming is an important public health problem in Iran, despite its risk not being quantified. This study aims to use venomous snakes' habitat suitability as an indicator of snakebite risk, to identify high-priority areas for snakebite management across the country. Thus, an ensemble approach using five distribution modelling methods: Generalized Boosted Models, Generalized Additive Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling, Generalized Linear Models, and Random Forest was applied to produce a spatial snakebite risk model for Iran. To achieve this, four venomous snakes' habitat suitability (Macrovipera lebetinus, Echis carinatus, Pseudocerastes persicus and Naja oxiana) were modelled and then multiplied. These medically important snakes are responsible for the most snakebite incidents in Iran. Multiplying habitat suitability models of the four snakes showed that the northeast of Iran (west of Khorasan-e-Razavi province) has the highest snakebite risk in the country. In addition, villages that were at risk of envenoming from the four snakes were identified. Results revealed that 51,112 villages are at risk of envenoming from M. lebetinus, 30,339 from E. carinatus, 51,657 from P. persicus and 12,124 from N. oxiana. Precipitation seasonality was identified as the most important variable influencing distribution of the P. persicus, E. carinatus and M. lebetinus in Iran. Precipitation of the driest quarter was the most important predictor of suitable habitats of the N. oxiana. Since climatic variables play an important role in shaping the distribution of the four venomous snakes in Iran, thus their distribution may alter with changing climate. This paper demonstrates application of species distribution modelling in public health research and identified potential snakebite risk areas in Iran by using venomous snakes' habitat suitability models as an indicating factor. Results of this study can be used in snakebite and human-snake conflict management in Iran. We recommend increasing public awareness of snakebite envenoming and education of local people in areas which identified with the highest snakebite risk.

High-Mountain Lakes, Indicators of Global Change: Ecological Characterization and Environmental Pressures

Though mountain lakes are generally much less influenced by human activities than other habitats, global and local anthropogenic threats can alter their natural condition. The most alarming threats are climate change, water exploitation and abstraction, alien species introduction, and the medium-long range atmospheric transport of contaminates. Moreover, tourism and mountain farming are two other major sources of organic pollutants that can pose a threat to local aquatic biodiversity. Papers submitted to this Special Issue should be original contributions, with a focus on ecological and morphological characterization, environmental pressures (i.e., alien species introduction, environmental contaminates), and the use of bioindicators/tracers to inform adequate management plans.