Ecological niche modelling for the conservation of endemic threatened squamates (lizards and snakes) in the Western Ghats

Potential distribution of endemic lizards from Brazilian restingas: The present announcing the end

The restinga habitats are coastal psammophilous environments, with only 0.47% of the original area remaining in Brazil. This environment embraces at least 36 known species of lizards, 7 of them being endemic. Besides direct anthropogenic impacts, climate change raises new cautions on Brazilian restingas-endemic lizards conservation. We evaluated the current and future potential distribution of the endemic lizards from Brazilian restingas, considering different climate change scenarios. We hypothesized shifts in the potential distribution of the restinga-endemic lizards. We conducted ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of Brazilian restingas-endemic lizards. Here, we used an ensemble of three modeling algorithms (Bioclim, GLM, and SVM). In predicting the effects of climate change on their future distributions, we used intermediate and pessimistic socio-economic pathway scenarios (SSP3 70 and SSP5 85, respectively) considering projections for 2081-2100. Furthermore, we calculate the extent of future potential distribution covered by the current spatial configuration of integral protection areas to assess if they will still be effective in conserving the species in the future. We did this by binarizing predicted potential distribution with a threshold of 0.8. Our data pointed out that the species will have their potential distribution area altered for 2081-2100, considering climate change scenarios. Tropidurus hygomi, Glaucomastix abaetensis, and G. itabaianensis overlapped along their predicted potential distribution for the present and future. The same was found to Ameivula nativo and Liolaemus lutzae. Moreover, our results showed a potential marked reduction of potential distribution covered PAs. The recognition of potential distribution areas discussed here enables focal and urgent conservation strategies, besides bringing up alerts on protected areas' role in conserving these species under climate change scenarios. We propose creating planning policies using space and time criteria and developing long-term studies, besides promoting educational programs aiming at environmental conservation. Thus, we expect our research to contribute to the protection of the land over Brazilian restingas-endemic lizards' distribution.

Future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia

Climate change majorly impacts biodiversity in diverse regions across the world, including South Asia, a megadiverse area with heterogeneous climatic and vegetation regions. However, climate impacts on bats in this region are not well-studied, and it is unclear whether climate effects will follow patterns predicted in other regions. We address this by assessing projected near-future changes in climatically suitable areas for 110 bat species from South Asia. We used ensemble ecological niche modelling with four algorithms (random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and maximum entropy) to define climatically suitable areas under current conditions (1970-2000). We then extrapolated near future (2041-2060) suitable areas under four projected scenarios (combining two global climate models and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2: middle-of-the-road and SSP5: fossil-fuelled development). Projected future changes in suitable areas varied across species, with most species predicted to retain most of the current area or lose small amounts. When shifts occurred due to projected climate change, new areas were generally northward of current suitable areas. Suitability hotspots, defined as regions suitable for >30% of species, were generally predicted to become smaller and more fragmented. Overall, climate change in the near future may not lead to dramatic shifts in the distribution of bat species in South Asia, but local hotspots of biodiversity may be lost. Our results offer insight into climate change effects in less studied areas and can inform conservation planning, motivating reappraisals of conservation priorities and strategies for bats in South Asia.

Protecting isolated reptile populations outside their main area of distribution: a predictive model of the Dice snake, Natrixtessellata, distribution in the Czech Republic

Marginal populations of animals are highly susceptible to environmental pressures associated with climatic changes. Understanding their distribution and ecological requirements is, thus, essential for the development of efficient conservation strategies. The dice snake, Natrixtessellata, is listed as critically endangered in the Czech Republic. In certain regions (Bohemia and Silesia), its populations are located beyond the northern border of the continuous range of the species, while the south Moravian populations are connected to it. Based on the statewide database of the Czech Nature Conservation Agency, we created a predictive model and determined key factors influencing the species distribution. The most relevant factors were: watercourses and bodies, average annual temperatures, altitude, slope inclination and precipitation seasonality. The model fits the presence records well and is applicable in both theory and practice of the species conservation - for example, focusing faunistic research to certain areas, critical analysis of controversial presence reports and as an input for species management in the form of repatriation and introduction.

A new species of the Miniopterus australis species complex (Chiroptera: Miniopteridae) from the Western Ghats, India

The genus Miniopterus is highly diverse in cryptic species. Based on integrated approaches of morphometrics, echolocation call analysis, and molecular phylogenetics, we present evidence of a hitherto undescribed species, Srini's Bent-winged bat Miniopterus srinii sp. nov.. The new species, found in the Western Ghats of southern Karnataka, India, closely resembles the Small Bent-winged bat Miniopterus pusillus, found elsewhere in Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, India. Although it shows external similarity with Miniopterus pusillus sensu stricto from the Nicobar Islands, the new species is relatively larger and distinct in craniodental measurements and echolocation call parameters, despite slight overlaps. Importantly, Miniopterus srinii exhibits morphological convergence with Miniopterus pusillus as despite similarities in morphologies, there is a significant genetic distance of 10.84 ± 0.22%. The new cryptic species shares distribution with Miniopterus phillipsi and Miniopterus pusillus in the Western Ghats, further highlighting the need to study both the genus' cryptic diversity, and the region's conservation importance.

Landscape Ecological Analysis of Green Network in Urban Area Using Circuit Theory and Least-Cost Path

Quantitative securing of green space in already developed cities has many practical limitations due to socio-economic limitations. Currently, South Korea is planning a green network to secure and inject effective green space, but it is difficult to reflect it in the actual space plan due to the abstract plan. This study utilizes circuit theory and least-cost path methods for presenting a green network that is objectified and applicable to spatial planning. First, an analysis of the Least-cost Path revealed 69 least-cost paths between 43 core green areas of the study site. Most least-cost paths have been identified as passing through small green areas and streams in the city. Using the circuit theory, it was also possible to distinguish areas other than least-cost paths from areas with high potential for development, areas where target species are concentrated within corridors. In particular, areas with relatively high green network improvement effects were derived within and around corridors. This study is most significant in establishing and evaluating existing urban green networks, overcoming the limitations discussed at the linear level and expanding to the area level. To increase the utilization of this study in the future, field surveys and monitoring studies on target species need to be supplemented.