Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus McGregor in China using MaxEnt

Distribution patterns of Phytoseiulus persimilis in response to climate change

BACKGROUND

The biological control agent Phytoseiulus persimilis is a commercialized specialist predator of two agricultural pest mite species Tetranychus urticae and Tetranychus evansi. Biocontrol of these pest species by P. persimilis has achieved success in biological control in some areas. However, the lack of precise information about the influence of global climate change on the worldwide distribution of this biocontrol agent hampers international efforts to manage pest mites with P. persimilis. With 276 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables, this study investigated the potential global distribution of P. persimilis.

RESULTS

The results demonstrated that the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model performed well, with the area under the curve being 0.956, indicating the high accuracy of this model. Two variables, the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio_6) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio_19) were the most important environmental variables that influenced the distribution of P. persimilis, contributing more than 30% to the model, respectively. The suitable area currently occupies 21.67% of the world's land area, spanning latitudes between 60°S and 60°N. Under shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 (high-carbon emissions), the low suitable area would increase by 1.31% until the 2050s.

CONCLUSION

This study successfully identified that south-eastern China, parts of countries in the Mediterranean coastal regions, including Libya, Algeria, Portugal, Spain, and France, are climatically favorable regions for P. persimilis, providing valuable information about the potential areas where it can be effectively exploited as biocontrol agents in classical biological control programs to manage pest spider mites environmentally friendly. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change

Introduction

Goji berry (Lycium barbarum L.) is a famous edible and medicinal herb worldwide with considerable consumption. The recent cultivation of goji berries in the Daodi region was seriously reduced due to increased production costs and the influence of policy on preventing nongrain use of arable land in China. Consequently, production of Daodi goji berry was insufficient to meet market demands for high-quality medicinal materials. Searching for regions similar to the Daodi region was necessary.

Methods

The MaxEnt model was used to predicted the current and future potential regions suitable for goji berry in China based on the environmental characteristics of the Daodi region (including Zhongning County of Zhongwei prefecture-level city, and its surroundings), and the ArcGIS software was used to analyze the changes in its suitable region.

Results

The results showed that when the parameters were FC = LQHP and RM = 2.1, the MaxEnt model was optimal, and the AUC and TSS values were greater than 0.90. The mean temperature and precipitation of the coldest quarter were the most critical variables shaping the distribution of Daodi goji berries. Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the Daodi goji berry were 45,973.88 km2, accounting for 0.48% of China's land area, which were concentrated in the central and western Ningxia Province (22,589.42 km2), and the central region of Gansu Province (18,787.07 km2) bordering western Ningxia. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was higher than that under current climate conditions and reached the maximum under RCP 6.0 (91,256.42 km2) in the 2050s and RCP 8.5 (82,459.17 km2) in the 2070s. The expansion regions were mainly distributed in the northeast of the current suitable ranges, and the distributional centroids were mainly shifted to the northeast. The moderately and highly suitable overlapping habitats were mainly distributed in Baiyin (7,241.75 km2), Zhongwei (6,757.81 km2), and Wuzhong (5, 236.87 km2) prefecture-level cities.

Discussion

In this stduy, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to predict and analyze the suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change. Our results indicate that climate warming is conducive to cultivating Daodi goji berry and will not cause a shift in the Daodi region. The goji berry produced in Baiyin could be used to satisfy the demand for high-quality medicinal materials. This study addresses the insufficient supply and guides the cultivation of Daodi goji berry.

Reassessing the presence of alien predatory mites and their prospects in the face of future climate change

BACKGROUND

Climate change poses uncertainties in the effectiveness of classical biological control (CBC), and there is a lack of information on the establishment of natural enemy populations under present and future climatic conditions. The objective is to explore current traces of two alien predators (Neoseiulus californicus and Neoseiulus fallacis; introduced for the CBC program in the 1980s) and their future expansion under climate change in Taiwan.

RESULTS

The results indicated that N. californicus was present in alpine orchards (e.g., Lishan and Meifeng) but N. fallacis was not found. Under current climate condition, most areas in Taiwan were deemed highly suitable for N. californicus, but not for N. fallacis, which may explain the outcomes of the CBC program. With intensifying climate change, the ranges of both species are projected to contract to varying extents in Taiwan but expand in some countries.

CONCLUSION

The findings from this study can provide insights for evaluating and developing future CBC programs worldwide, and can help predict the implications of climate change on biological control efforts. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Assessment of suitable cultivation region for Pepino (Solanum muricatum) under different climatic conditions using the MaxEnt model and adaptability in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau

Pepino (Solanum muricatum), a member of the Solanaceae family originating from South America, is cultivated globally. However, the cultivation range and suitable habitat of Pepino have not been extensively studied, which hampers the further development of its cultivation industry. Therefore, we aimed at enrich and expand the planting scope of Pepino. Currently, the main cultivation areas of Pepino in China are the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Loess Plateau, where the altitude is above 1000 m. In this study, ArcGIS combined with the MaxEnt model was used for prediction, whose area under curve value was 0.949. The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of Pepino are temperature seasonality, annual means temperature, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, elevation, isothermality, and the climate factors, and their cumulative contribution rate of 87.6%. Pepino's main potential distribution areas are located in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Yunnan Province, Hexi Corridor of Loess Plateau, and low altitude areas of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The main distribution ranges from 1000 to 2000 m above sea level, and the total suitable area accounts for 20.09% of China's total land area. The prediction results reveal an expanded potential area for Pepino, with no significant migration in the central region of the main potential distribution area by 2050 and 2070. No studies have been conducted on the open-area cultivation of Pepino in northern China. Our findings revealed that the yield and quality in the four experimental sites and final actual cultivation conditions were consistent with the predicted results of MaxEnt. The yiel d per plant in Xunhua and Minhe was significantly different from that in Xining, which was low, and that in Minhe was the highest. Overall, the fruit quality in the Xining region was the lowest among the three regions, which was related to the climatic differences in each region. These results align with the predicted outcomes, indicating that Xining is the least suitable area. Further, these data verify the accuracy of the prediction results. The climate data of the four regions were analyzed simultaneously to elucidate the influence of different climate conditions on the growth of Pepino. Our findings are of considerable significance for introducing characteristic horticultural crops in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and using the MaxEnt model to predict the cultivation range of crops.

Dulong People's Traditional Knowledge of Caryota obtusa (Arecaceae): a Potential Starch Plant with Emphasis on Its Starch Properties and Distribution Prediction

The greatest global challenge is to ensure that all people have access to adequate and nutritious food. Wild edible plants, particularly those that provide substitutes for staple foods, can play a key role in enhancing food security and maintaining a balanced diet in rural communities. We used ethnobotanical methods to investigate traditional knowledge on Caryota obtusa, a substitute staple food plant of the Dulong people in Northwest Yunnan, China. The chemical composition, morphological properties, functional, and pasting properties of C. obtusa starch were evaluated. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict the potential geographical distribution of C. obtusa in Asia. Results revealed that C. obtusa is a vital starch species with cultural significance in the Dulong community. There are large areas suitable for C. obtusa in southern China, northern Myanmar, southwestern India, eastern Vietnam, and other places. As a potential starch crop, C. obtusa could substantially contribute to local food security and bring economic benefit. In the future, it is necessary to study the breeding and cultivation of C. obtusa, as well as the processing and development of starch, to solve long-term and hidden hunger in rural areas.

Distribution patterns and drivers of nonendemic and endemic glires species in China

Spatial patterns and determinants of species richness in complex geographical regions are important subjects of current biogeography and biodiversity conservation research. Glires are small herbivorous mammal species with limited migratory ability that may serve as an indicator of biodiversity and ecosystems. Herein, we aimed to evaluate how multiple ecological hypotheses could explain the species richness patterns of glires in China. Initially, we constructed a mapping grid cell operating units of 80 × 80 km2 which covered China's land mass and mapped the distribution ranges of the 237 glires species that had recorded. The glires taxa were separated into three response variables based on their distribution: (a) all species, (b) nonendemic species, and (c) endemic species. The species richness patterns of the response variables were evaluated using four predictor sets: (a) hydrothermal characteristics, (b) climatic seasonality, (c) habitat heterogeneity, and (d) human factors. We performed regression tree analysis, multiple linear regression analysis, and variation partitioning analyses to determine the effects of predictors on spatial species patterns. The results showed that the distribution pattern of species richness was the highest in the Hengduan Mountains and surrounding areas in southwest China. However, only a few endemic species adapted to high-latitude environments. It was found that there are differences about the determinants between nonendemic and endemic species. Habitat heterogeneity was the most influential determinant for the distribution patterns of nonendemic species richness. Climatic seasonality was the best predictor to determine the richness distribution pattern of endemic species, whereas this was least affected by human factors. Furthermore, it should be noted that hydrothermal characteristics were not strong predictors of richness patterns for all or nonendemic species, which may be due to the fact that there are also more species in some areas with less precipitation or energy. Therefore, glires are likely to persist in areas with characteristics of high habitat heterogeneity and stable climate.

Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios

Neoseiulus californicus is a predatory mite with a wide global distribution that can effectively control a variety of pest mites. In this study, MaxEnt was used to analyse the potential distribution of N. californicus in China and the BCC-CSM2-MR model was used to predict changes in the suitable areas for the mite from 2021 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The results showed that (1) the average of area under curve value of the model was over 0.95, which demonstrated an excellent model accuracy. (2) Annual mean temperature (Bio1), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were the main climatic variables that affected and controlled the potential distribution of N. californicus, with suitable ranges of 6.97–23.27 °C, 71.36–3924.8 mm, and 41.94–585.08 mm, respectively. (3) The suitable areas for N. californicus were mainly distributed in the southern half of China, with a total suitable area of 226.22 × 10⁴ km² in current. Under the future climate scenario, compared with the current scenario, lowly and moderately suitable areas of N. californicus increased, while highly suitable areas decreased. Therefore, it may be necessary to cultivate high-temperature resistant strains of N. californicus to adapt to future environmental changes.

Simulation of the potential distribution of rare and endangered Satyrium species in China under climate change

Satyrium is an endangered and rare genus of plant that has various pharmacodynamic functions. In this study, optimized MaxEnt models were used in analyzing potential geographical distributions under current and future climatic conditions (the 2050s and 2070s) and dominant environmental variables influencing their geographic distribution. The results provided reference for implementation of long-term conservation and management approaches for the species. The results showed that the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium ciliatum (S. ciliatum) in China is 32.51 × 104 km2, the total suitable habitat area for Satyrium nepalense (S. nepalense) in China is 61.76 × 104 km2, and the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium yunnanense (S. yunnanense) in China is 89.73 × 104 km2 under current climatic conditions. The potential suitable habitat of Satyrium is mainly distributed in Southwest China. The major environmental variables influencing the geographical distribution of S. ciliatum were isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11). Environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) affected the geographical distribution of S. nepalense; and environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and lower temperature of coldest month (bio6) affected the geographical distribution of S. yunnanense. The distribution range of Satyrium was extended as global warming increased, showing emissions of greenhouse gases with lower concentration (SSP1-2.6) and higher concentration (SSP5-8.5). According to the study, the distribution of suitable habitat will shift with a change to higher elevation areas and higher latitude areas in the future.