Cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer in high-risk areas of China: a modeling study

Cost-effectiveness of universal esophageal cancer screening for newly diagnosed oral cancer patients

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Oral and esophageal cancers are globally prevalent, especially in East Asia. Over half of head and neck cancer patients developing second primary esophageal cancer (SPEC) were initially diagnosed with oral cavity cancer (OCC). This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of universal endoscopic screening for early SPEC prevention in newly diagnosed OCC patients at different stages.

METHODS

This study employed Markov cohort models to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of endoscopic SPEC screening post-OCC diagnosis (stages 0 to IV) between screened and non-screened groups. Four surveillance frequencies were assessed: (i) one time, (ii) annual for 3 years, (iii) annual for 10 years, and (iv) annual for life. A hypothetical cohort of 100 000 cases across stages was compared for costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted annually at 3%.

RESULTS

All four screening strategies were beneficial for all OCC stages, especially for early-stage patients, resulting in higher QALYs. Lifetime/annual screening from the payer's perspective proved most favorable, with incremental QALYs of 1.23 at stage 0 and 0.06 at stage IV. Incremental costs for this strategy ranged from NTD 121 331 (USD 4044) at stage 0 to NTD 13 032 (USD 434) at stage IV. Both incremental costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) values indicated cost savings from a societal perspective. The ICER values ranged from NTD -626 440 (USD -20 881) at stage 0 and NTD -475 021 (USD -15 834) at stage IV.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our study provided cost-effectiveness evidences to understanding the cost-effectiveness of endoscopic screening in OCC patients, particularly emphasizing the benefits of early and consistent screening.

Effectiveness of Risk-Adapted Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Screening in China: Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Previous studies have proved the effectiveness of endoscopic screening in rural areas; however, long-term, high-quality evidence regarding the effectiveness of risk-adapted upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) sequential screening strategies in resource-rich regions is currently lacking.

Objective

The objectives were to validate the effectiveness of risk-adapted sequential screening strategies in UGC prevention and control and assess the potential of sequential screening to lower mortality rates.

Methods

Based on the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China, a prospective, large-scale cohort study based on population was conducted to recruit individuals from 4 cities in China from 2013-2019. Those identified as having a high risk of UGC according to a validated risk-score model were advised to undergo endoscopy tests. Follow-up outcomes were tracked until June 2021. Incidence of UGC, UGC-related mortality, and all-cause mortality were evaluated between the screened and nonscreened cohorts.

Results

The study included 153,079 participants at baseline. In total, 113,916 (74.42%) of the participants were designated as low risk of UGC. The remaining 39,163 (25.68%) participants were deemed to be at high risk of UGC and were offered gastroscopy tests. Among the high-risk participants, 9627 (compliance rate 24.6%) adhered to the gastroscopy tests. Over a median follow-up of 6.05 (IQR 3.06-7.06) years, 622 UGC cases, 180 UGC deaths, and 1958 all-cause death cases were traced. The screened cohort exhibited the highest cumulative incidence of UGC (119.2 per 100,000 person-years), followed by the nonscreened and low-risk cohorts. Obvious reductions in both all-cause mortality and UGC mortality were observed between those who undertook screening (153.7 and 4.7 per 100,000 person-years, respectively) and the nonscreened group (245.3 and 27 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). The screening population showed a significant 36% and 82% reduction in both all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% CI 0.49-0.83, P<.001) and UGC mortality (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.04-0.74, P=.02), respectively, compared to the nonscreened group. Reductions of 35% in all-cause mortality (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.49-0.86, P=.003) and 81% in UGC mortality (HR 0.19, 95% CI 0.05-0.80, P=.02) were observed in participants aged older than 55 years in the screened group compared to the nonscreened group. The reductions in all-cause mortality and UGC mortality were statistically significant in males (all-cause mortality: HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47-0.88, P=.005; UGC mortality: HR 0.10, 95% CI 0.01-0.72, P=.02), but significant reductions were not observed in females (all P values were >.05).

Conclusions

Our study suggests the significance of one-off risk-adapted UGC screening in reducing both all-cause mortality and UGC mortality, particularly among high-risk individuals, indicating its effectiveness in UGC prevention and management.

The spatiotemporal associations between esophageal and gastric cancers provide evidence for its joint endoscopic screening in China: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The spatiotemporal epidemiological evidence supporting joint endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer (EC) and gastric cancer (GC) remains limited. This study aims to identify combined high-risk regions for EC and GC and determine optimal areas for joint and separate endoscopic screening.

METHODS

We analyzed the association of incidence trends between EC and GC in cancer registry areas across China from 2006 to 2016 using spatiotemporal statistical methods. Based on these analyses, we divided different combined risk regions for EC and GC to implement joint endoscopic screening.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2016, national incidence trends for both EC and GC showed a decline, with an average annual percentage change of -3.15 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -5.33 to -0.92) for EC and -3.78 (95% CI: -4.98 to -2.56) for GC. A grey comprehensive correlation analysis revealed a strong temporal association between the incidence trends of EC and GC, with correlations of 79.00% (95% CI: 77.85 to 80.14) in males and 77.62% (95% CI: 76.50 to 78.73) in females. Geographic patterns of EC and GC varied, demonstrating both homogeneity and heterogeneity across different regions. The cancer registry areas were classified into seven distinct combined risk regions, with 33 areas identified as high-risk for both EC and GC, highlighting these regions as priorities for joint endoscopic screening.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates a significant spatiotemporal association between EC and GC. The identified combined risk regions provide a valuable basis for optimizing joint endoscopic screening strategies for these cancers.

Nationwide survey analysis of esophagogastric varices in portal hypertension based on endoscopic management in China

Aims

The endoscopic treatment of esophagogastric varices is challenging, and the nationwide application of endoscopic therapies for various types of esophagogastric varices and different clinical scenarios remains unclear. This study investigated the use of endoscopic therapy for portal hypertension in China.

Methods

This study used a questionnaire survey initiated by the Liver Health Consortium in China to investigate the use of endoscopic therapies for portal hypertension. Questionnaires were released online from January 30, 2023 to February 28, 2023 and filled out by chief physicians or senior instructors responsible for endoscopic therapies in participating hospitals across 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China. Comparisons of guideline adherence between primary and referral medical centers were performed using the chi‐square test or Fisher's exact test.

Results

In total, 836 hospitals participated in the survey. For primary and secondary prophylaxis of esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB), adherence to the national guidelines was 72.5% (606/836) and 39.2% (328/836), respectively. Significant differences were observed in the rate of adherence between the primary and referral centers for primary (79.9% [111/139] vs. 71.0% [495/697], p = 0.033) and secondary prophylaxis (27.3% [38/139] vs. 41.6% [290/697], p = 0.002). Of the hospitals, 78.2% (654/836) preferred endoscopic therapies for acute EGVB, and the timing of endoscopy was usually within 12 h (48.5%, 317/654) and 12–24 h (36.9%, 241/654) after bleeding. Endoscopic therapy was more likely to be the first choice of treatment for acute EGVB in referral centers than in primary centers (82.6% [576/697] vs. 56.1% [78/139], p < 0.001). Regarding the management of gastroesophageal varices type 2 and isolated gastric varices type 1, the most prevalent procedures were cyanoacrylate injection combined with sclerotherapy (48.2% [403/836] and 29.9% [250/836], respectively); however, substantial hospitals preferred clip‐assisted therapies (12.4% [104/836] and 26.4% [221/836], respectively). Nonselective beta‐blockers were routinely used in 73.4% (614/836) of hospitals during the perioperative period of EGVB management, and propranolol (88.8%, 545/614) and carvedilol (37.5%, 230/614) were the most widely used nonselective beta‐blockers.

Conclusions

This survey clarified that various endoscopic procedures have been implemented nationwide in China. Participating hospitals have actively performed emergent endoscopy for acute EGVB; however, these hospitals do not adequately follow recommendations regarding primary and secondary prophylaxis of EGVB. In the future, standardizing the selection of endoscopic procedures and improving compliance with guidelines is crucial.

Early diagnosis of esophageal cancer: How to put "early detection" into effect?

This editorial comments on the article by Qu et al in a recent edition of World Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology, focusing on the importance of early diagnosis in managing esophageal cancer and strategies for achieving "early detection". The five-year age-standardized net survival for esophageal cancer patients falls short of expectations. Early detection and accurate diagnosis are critical strategies for improving the treatment outcomes of esophageal cancer. While advancements in endoscopic technology have been significant, there seems to be an excessive emphasis on the latest high-end endoscopic devices and various endoscopic resection techniques. Therefore, it is imperative to redirect focus towards proactive early detection strategies for esophageal cancer, investigate the most cost-effective screening methods suitable for different regions, and persistently explore practical solutions to improve the five-year survival rate of patients with esophageal cancer.

Diagnosis of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma by High-Performance Serum Metabolic Fingerprints: A Retrospective Study

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a highly prevalent and aggressive malignancy, and timely diagnosis of ESCC contributes to an increased cancer survival rate. However, current detection methods for ESCC mainly rely on endoscopic examination, limited by a relatively low participation rate. Herein, ferric-particle-enhanced laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (FPELDI MS) is utilized to record the serum metabolic fingerprints (SMFs) from a retrospective cohort (523 non-ESCC participants and 462 ESCC patients) to build diagnostic models toward ESCC. The PFELDI MS achieved high speed (≈30 s per sample), desirable reproducibility (coefficients of variation < 15%), and high throughput (985 samples with ≈124 200 data points for each spectrum). Desirable diagnostic performance with area-under-the-curves (AUCs) of 0.925-0.966 is obtained through machine learning of SMFs. Further, a metabolic biomarker panel is constructed, exhibiting superior diagnostic sensitivity (72.2-79.4%, p < 0.05) as compared with clinical protein biomarker tests (4.3-22.9%). Notably, the biomarker panel afforded an AUC of 0.844 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.806-0.880) toward early ESCC diagnosis. This work highlighted the potential of metabolic analysis for accurate screening and early detection of ESCC and offered insights into the metabolic characterization of diseases including but not limited to ESCC.

Plasma cell-free DNA 5-hydroxymethylcytosine and whole-genome sequencing signatures for early detection of esophageal cancer

Esophageal cancer is a highly incidence and deadly disease with a poor prognosis, especially in developing countries. Owing to the lack of specific symptoms and early diagnostic biomarkers, most patients are diagnosed with advanced disease, leading to a 5-year survival rate of less than 15%. Early (n = 50) and middle-advanced (n = 50) esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients, as well as 71 healthy individuals, underwent 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC) sequencing on their plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA). A Northern Chinese cohort of cfDNA 5hmC dataset of 150 ESCC patients and 183 healthy individuals were downloaded for validation. A diagnostic model was developed using cfDNA 5hmC signatures and then improved by low-pass whole genome sequencing (WGS) features of cfDNA. Conserved cfDNA 5hmC modification motifs were observed in the two independent ESCC cohorts. The diagnostic model with 5hmC features achieved an AUC of 0.810 and 0.862 in the Southern and Northern cohorts, respectively, with sensitivities of 69.3-74.3% and specificities of 82.4-90.7%. The performance was well maintained in Stage I to Stage IV, with accuracy of 70-100%, but low in Stage 0, 33.3%. Low-pass WGS of cfDNA improved the AUC to 0.934 with a sensitivity of 82.4%, a specificity of 88.2%, and an accuracy of 84.3%, particularly significantly in Stage 0, with an accuracy up to 80%. 5hmC and WGS could efficiently differentiate very early ESCC from healthy individuals. These findings imply a non-invasive and convenient method for ESCC detection when clinical treatments are available and may eventually prolong survival.

Long-term esophageal cancer risk and distinct surveillance intervals after a single endoscopy screening: a multicentre population-based cohort study

Background

Endoscopy surveillance is recommended for mild-moderate dysplasia and negative endoscopy findings every 3 years and 5 years, respectively, but evidence is limited. This study aimed to assess long-term esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality after a single endoscopy screening.

Methods

We included individuals at high risk of EC aged 40-69 years who underwent endoscopy screening in 2007-2012 at six centres in rural China and had a baseline diagnosis of negative endoscopy findings, mild dysplasia, or moderate dysplasia. Participants were followed up for EC incidence and mortality. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates of EC were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analyses. Cox regression models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between baseline endoscopy diagnosis and the risk of EC incidence and mortality. EC incidence and mortality after a single endoscopy screening were compared with those of the population in rural China by the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR).

Findings

A total of 42,827 participants (40,977 with negative endoscopy findings, 1562 with mild dysplasia, and 288 with moderate dysplasia) were included; 268 EC cases and 128 EC deaths were identified during a median follow-up of 10.62 years. The cumulative EC incidence at 10 years was 0.45% (0.38-0.52) in the group with negative endoscopy findings, 2.39% (1.62-3.16) in the mild dysplasia group, and 8.90% (5.57-12.24) in the moderate dysplasia group, and the cumulative EC mortality at 10 years was 0.23% (0.18-0.27), 0.96% (0.46-1.46), and 2.50% (0.67-4.33), respectively. Compared with individuals with negative endoscopy findings, the HRs for EC incidence and mortality in the mild dysplasia group were 3.52 (2.49-4.97) and 2.43 (1.41-4.19), and those in the moderate dysplasia group were 13.18 (8.78-19.76) and 6.46 (3.13-13.29), respectively. The SIR was 0.53 (0.40-0.70) for the group with negative endoscopy findings, 1.95 (1.69-2.24) for the mild dysplasia group, and 6.75 (6.25-7.28) for the moderate dysplasia group, with the SMRs of 0.43 (0.31-0.58), 1.07 (0.88-1.29) and 2.67 (2.36-3.01), respectively.

Interpretation

Individuals with negative endoscopy findings after a single endoscopy screening had a lower EC risk than the general population for up to 10.62 years, while those with mild-moderate dysplasia had an elevated risk. Our results support endoscopy surveillance for mild-moderate dysplasia every 3 years and suggest extending the interval to 10 years after a negative endoscopy finding.

Funding

National Key R&D Programme of China, Special Project of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation, and Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen.

Public Preference Heterogeneity and Predicted Uptake Rate of Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Screening Programs in Rural China: Discrete Choice Experiments and Latent Class Analysis

BACKGROUND

Rapid increases in the morbidity and mortality of patients with upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) in high-incidence countries in Asia have raised public health concerns. Screening can effectively reduce the incidence and mortality of patients with UGC, but the low population uptake rate seriously affects the screening effect.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the characteristics that influence residents' preference heterogeneity for a UGC-screening program and the extent to which these characteristics predict residents' uptake rates.

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment was conducted in 1000 residents aged 40-69 years who were randomly selected from 3 counties (Feicheng, Linqu, and Dongchangfu) in Shandong Province, China. Each respondent was repeatedly asked to choose from 9 discrete choice questions of 2 hypothetical screening programs comprising 5 attributes: screening interval, screening technique, regular follow-up for precancerous lesions, mortality reduction, and out-of-pocket costs. The latent class logit model was used to estimate residents' preference heterogeneity for each attribute level, their willingness to pay, and the expected uptake rates.

RESULTS

Of the 1000 residents invited, 926 (92.6%) were included in the final analyses. The mean age was 57.32 (SD 7.22) years. The best model contained 4 classes of respondents (Akaike information criterion=7140.989, Bayesian information criterion=7485.373) defined by different preferences for the 5 attributes. In the 4-class model, out of 926 residents, 88 (9.5%) were assigned to class 1, named as the negative latent type; 216 (3.3%) were assigned to class 2, named as the positive integrated type; 434 (46.9%) were assigned to class 3, named as the positive comfortable type; and 188 (20.3%) were assigned to class 4, named as the neutral quality type. For these 4 latent classes, "out-of-pocket cost" is the most preferred attribute in negative latent type and positive integrated type residents (45.04% vs 66.04% importance weights), whereas "screening technique" is the most preferred factor in positive comfortable type residents (62.56% importance weight) and "screening interval" is the most valued attribute in neutral quality type residents (47.05% importance weight). Besides, residents in different classes had common preference for painless endoscopy, and their willingness to pay were CNY ¥385.369 (US $59.747), CNY ¥93.44 (US $14.486), CNY ¥1946.48 (US $301.810), and CNY ¥3566.60 (US $552.961), respectively. Residents' participation rate could increase by more than 89% (except for the 60.98% in class 2) if the optimal UGC screening option with free, follow-up for precancerous lesions, 45% mortality reduction, screening every year, and painless endoscopy was implemented.

CONCLUSIONS

Public preference heterogeneity for UGC screening does exist. Most residents have a positive attitude toward UGC screening, but their preferences vary in selected attributes and levels, except for painless endoscopy. Policy makers should consider these heterogeneities to formulate UGC-screening programs that incorporate the public's needs and preferences to improve participation rates.

Profiles and Findings of Population-Based Esophageal Cancer Screening With Endoscopy in China: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Population-based esophageal cancer (EC) screening trials and programs have been conducted in China for decades; however, screening strategies have been adopted in different regions and screening profiles are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We performed a meta-analysis to profile EC screening in China by positivity rate, compliance rate, and endoscopy findings, aiming to provide explicit evidence and recommendations for EC screening programs.

METHODS

English (PubMed, Embase) and Chinese (China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang) language databases were systematically searched for population-based EC screening studies in the Chinese population until December 31, 2022. A meta-analysis was performed by standard methodology using a random-effects model. Pooled prevalence rates were calculated for three groups: high-risk areas with a universal endoscopy strategy, rural China with a risk-stratified endoscopic screening (RSES) strategy, and urban China with an RSES strategy. Positive cases included lesions of severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, intramucosal carcinoma, submucosal carcinoma, and invasive carcinoma.

RESULTS

The pooled positivity rate of the high-risk population was higher in rural China (44.12%) than in urban China (23.11%). The compliance rate of endoscopic examinations was the highest in rural China (52.40%), followed by high-risk areas (50.11%), and was the lowest in urban China (23.67%). The pooled detection rate of positive cases decreased from 1.03% (95% CI 0.82%-1.30%) in high-risk areas to 0.48% (95% CI 0.25%-0.93%) in rural China and 0.12% (95% CI 0.07%-0.21%) in urban China. The pooled detection rate of low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN) was also in the same order, being the highest in high-risk areas (3.99%, 95% CI 2.78%-5.69%), followed by rural China (2.55%, 95% CI 1.03%-6.19%) and urban China (0.34%, 95% CI 0.14%-0.81%). Higher detection rates of positive cases and LGIN were observed among males than among females and at older ages. The pooled early detection rate was 81.90% (95% CI 75.58%-86.88%), which was similar to the rates in high-risk areas (82.09%), in rural China (80.76%), and in urban China (80.08%).

CONCLUSIONS

Under the current screening framework, a higher screening benefit was observed in high-risk areas than in other regions. To promote EC screening and reduce the current inequality of screening in China, more focus should be given to optimizing strategies of high-risk individual assessment and surveillance management to improve compliance with endoscopic examination.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022375720; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=375720.

The NCC mathematical modeling framework for decision-making of six major cancers

Objective

Mathematical modeling and simulation is a useful research method to inform decision-making. This article aims to describe the National Cancer Center (NCC) modeling framework and how well it reproduces observed empirical data for six major cancers.

Methods

We developed the NCC modeling framework for six major cancers in China (lung, liver, stomach, colorectal, esophageal, and breast), which simulates the life-histories represented by states among normal, precancerous lesion, stage-specific invasive cancer, and death for six cancers separately. Each NCC simulation model could be illustrated as an integrated framework of 3 modules: a demography module, natural history module, and screening module. Combined with costs and health utilities data, the models could have many detailed outputs for informing decisions, including the harm of screening (e.g., false positives, complications, and overdiagnosis), healthcare costs, and benefits (quality-adjusted life years gained, cancer incidence and mortality, and investment returns). We calibrated the models to Chinese population-based observations on cancer incidence, mortality, and stage distribution. All models are validated by comparing model simulated results to data observed from nationwide cancer registration and a large prospective cohort study.

Results

The simulated results from the calibrated models consistently match the epidemiological patterns in six major cancer incidence, mortality, and stage distributions in China. Model projected age-specific cancer incidence and mortality were close to the observed data in the national cancer registration. The NCC modeling framework reproduced the cumulative cancer cases and deaths observed in the prospective cohort study at 7.0 and 10.8 years of follow-up. Model estimated net survival rates also consistent with population-based statistics.

Conclusion

The NCC modeling framework's ability to reproduce the observed population-level cancer statistics and the cancer cases in a prospective cohort study suggests its results are reliable to inform decision-making related to six major cancers in China.

Cost-effectiveness of precision screening for esophageal cancer based on individualized risk stratification in China: Real-world evidence from the ESECC trial

BACKGROUND

Conventional universal endoscopic screening with pathology-based endoscopic re-examination for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is in need of reform in China. We established a "two-step" precision screening strategy using two risk prediction models and have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this precision strategy compared with the traditional strategy based on a large population-level randomized controlled trial from a healthcare provider's perspective.

METHODS

Four precision screening strategies with different risk cutoffs at baseline screening and endoscopic surveillance were constructed, and then compared with traditional strategy through modeling using subjects from the screening cohort of the ESECC (Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China) trial. Total screening costs and the number of SDA (severe dysplasia and above in lesions of the esophagus) cases were obtained to calculate the average screening cost per SDA detected, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and protection rates. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate uncertainties.

RESULTS

Compared to traditional strategy, all precision screening strategies have much lower average costs for detection of one SDA case ($7,148~$11,537 vs. $14,944). In addition, precision strategies 1&2 (strategies 1,2,3,4 described below) achieved higher effectiveness (143~150 vs. 136) and higher protection rates (87.7%~92.0% vs. 83.4%) at lower cost ($1,649,727~$1,672,221 vs. $2,032,386), generating negative ICERs (-$54,666/SDA~-$25,726/SDA) when compared to the traditional strategy. The optimal strategies within different willingness-to-pay (WTP) ranges were all precision screening strategies, and higher model sensitivities were adopted as WTP increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Precision screening strategy for esophageal cancer based on risk stratification is more cost-effective than use of traditional screening strategy and has practical implications for esophageal cancer screening programs in China.

Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Esophagus

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is common in the developing world with decreasing incidence in developed countries and carries significant morbidity and mortality. Major risk factors for ESCC development include significant use of alcohol and tobacco. Screening for ESCC can be recommended in high-risk populations living in highly endemic regions. The treatment of ESCC ranges from endoscopic resection therapy or surgery in localized disease to chemoradiotherapy in metastatic disease, and prognosis is directly related to the stage at diagnosis. New immunotherapies and molecular targeted therapies may improve the dismal survival outcomes in patients with metastatic ESCC.

Clinical Benefit and Cost Effectiveness of Risk-Stratified Gastric Cancer Screening Strategies in China: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

A new gastric cancer screening scoring system (NGCS) strategy was recommended for the early gastric cancer (GC) screening process in China. The current study aimed to assess the clinical benefits and the cost effectiveness of the NGCS strategy in GC high-risk areas of China from a societal perspective.

METHODS

A Markov microsimulation model was developed to evaluate 30 alternative screening strategies with varying initiation age, including the NGCS strategy, the modified NGCS strategy, and the endoscopic screening strategy with various screening intervals. The primary outcomes included GC mortality, number of endoscopies, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Cost estimates were reported in 2021 USD (US$) and both costs and benefits were discounted at 5% annually. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate model uncertainty.

RESULTS

Screening with the NGCS strategy from age 40 years (40-NGCS) reduced the GC incidence by 86.4%, which provided the greatest benefit across strategies. Compared with all strategies, at a willingness-to pay threshold of US$17,922 per QALY, the 40-NGCS strategy was a leading cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of US$15,668 per QALY. Results were robust in univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The probability of the 40-NGCS strategy being cost effective was 0.863.

CONCLUSIONS

The 40-NGCS strategy was an effective and cost-effective strategy to reduce GC incidence and mortality in China. The findings provide important evidence for decision makers to formulate and optimize targeted approaches for GC prevention and control policies in China.