Development and validation of a major adverse transplant event (MATE) score to predict late graft loss in pediatric heart transplantation

Clinical prediction models in children that use repeated measurements with time-varying covariates: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence suggests that clinical prediction models that use repeated (time-varying) measurements within each patient may have higher predictive accuracy than models that use patient information from a single measurement.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the breadth of the published literature reporting the development of clinical prediction models in children that use time-varying predictors.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included studies reporting the development of a multivariable clinical prediction model in children, with or without validation, to predict a repeatedly measured binary or time-to-event outcome and utilizing at least one repeatedly measured predictor.

SYNTHESIS METHODS

We categorized included studies by the method used to model time-varying predictors.

RESULTS

Of 99 clinical prediction model studies that had a repeated measurements data structure, only 27 (27%) used methods that incorporated the repeated measurements as time-varying predictors in a single model. Among these 27 time-varying prediction model studies, we grouped model types into nine categories: time-dependent Cox regression, generalized estimating equations, random effects model, landmark model, joint model, neural network, K-nearest neighbor, support vector machine and tree-based algorithms. Where there was comparison of time-varying models to single measurement models, using time-varying predictors improved predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Various methods have been used to develop time-varying prediction models in children, but there is a paucity of pediatric time-varying models in the literature. Incorporating time-varying covariates in pediatric prediction models may improve predictive accuracy. Future research in pediatric prediction model development should further investigate whether incorporation of time-varying covariates improves predictive accuracy.

DQB1 antigen matching improves rejection-free survival in pediatric heart transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

Presence of donor-specific antibodies (DSAs), particularly to class II antigens, remains a major challenge in pediatric heart transplantation. Donor-recipient human leukocyte antigen (HLA) matching is a potential strategy to mitigate poor outcomes associated with DSAs. We evaluated the hypothesis that antigen mismatching at the DQB1 locus is associated with worse rejection-free survival.

METHODS

Data were collected from Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients for all pediatric heart transplant recipients 2010-2021. Only transplants with complete HLA typing at the DQB1 locus for recipient and donor were included. Primary outcome was rejection-free graft survival through 5 years.

RESULTS

Of 5,115 children, 4,135 had complete DQB1 typing and were included. Of those, 503 (12%) had 0 DQB1 donor-recipient mismatches, 2,203 (53%) had 1, and 1,429 (35%) had 2. Rejection-free survival through 5 years trended higher for children with 0 DQB1 mismatches (68%), compared to those with 1 (62%) or 2 (63%) mismatches (pairwise p = 0.08 for both). In multivariable analysis, 0 DQB1 mismatches remained significantly associated with improved rejection-free graft survival compared to 2 mismatches, while 1 DQB1 mismatch was not. Subgroup analysis showed the strongest effect in non-Hispanic Black children and those undergoing retransplant.

CONCLUSIONS

Matching at the DQB1 locus is associated with improved rejection-free survival after pediatric heart transplant, particularly in Black children, and those undergoing retransplant. Assessing high-resolution donor typing at the time of allocation may further corroborate and refine this association. DQB1 matching may improve long-term outcomes in children stabilized either with optimal pharmacotherapy or supported with durable devices able to await ideal donors.

Echocardiographic assessment of pediatric heart transplantation: A single-center experience in China

BACKGROUND

Pediatric heart transplant (HT) has become the standard of care for end-stage heart failure in children worldwide. Serial echocardiographic evaluations of graft anatomy and function during follow-up are crucial for post-HT management. However, evolution of cardiac structure and function after pediatric HT has not been well described, especially during first year post-HT. This study aimed to characterize the evolution of cardiac structure and function after pediatric HT and investigate the correlation between biventricular function with adverse clinical outcomes.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective study of echocardiographic data obtained among 99 pediatric HT patients was conducted. Comprehensive echocardiographic examination was performed in all patients at 1-, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-months post-HT. We obtained structural, functional and hemodynamic parameters from both left- and right-side heart, such as left ventricular stroke volume (LVSV), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), right ventricular fractional area change (RVFAC), etc. The cardiac evolution of pediatric HT patients during first post-HT year was described and compared between different time points. We also explored the correlation between cardiac function and major adverse transplant events (MATEs).

RESULTS

1) Evolution of left heart parameters: left atrial length, mitral E velocity, E/A ratio, LVSV and LVEF significantly increased while mitral A velocity significantly decreased over the first year after HT (P < .05). Compared with 1 month after HT, interventricular septum (IVS) and left ventricular posterior wall (LVPW) decreased at 3 months but increased afterwards. (2) Evolution of right heart parameters: right ventricular base diameter and mid-diameter; right ventricular length diameter, tricuspid E velocity, E/A ratio, tricuspid annular velocity e' at free wall, and RVFAC increased, while tricuspid A velocity decreased over the first year after HT (P < .05). (3) Univariate logistic regression model suggests that biventricular function parameters at 1-year post-HT (LVEF, RVFAC, tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion and tricuspid lateral annular systolic velocity) were associated with MATEs.

CONCLUSION

Gradual improvement of LV and RV function was seen in pediatric HT patients within the first year. Biventricular function parameters associated with MATEs. The results of this study pave way for designing larger and longer follow-up of this population, potentially aiming at using multiparameter echocardiographic prediction of adverse events.

Major Adverse Dystrophinopathy Events (MADE) Score as Marker of Cumulative Morbidity and Risk for Mortality in Boys with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

Background

Overlapping symptoms from cardiomyopathy, respiratory insufficiency, and skeletal myopathy confound assessment of heart failure in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy. We developed an ordinal scale of multiorgan clinical variables that reflect cumulative disease burden-the Major Adverse Dystrophinopathy Event (MADE) Score. We hypothesized that a higher MADE score would be associated with increased mortality in boys with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy. The Cooperative International Neuromuscular Research Group Duchenne Natural History Study dataset was utilized for validation.

Methods

Duchenne Natural History Study variables were selected based on clinical relevance to prespecified domains: Cardiac, Pulmonary, Myopathy, Nutrition. Severity points (0-4) were assigned and summed for study visits. MADE score for cohorts defined by age, ambulatory status, and survival were compared at enrollment and longitudinally.Associations between MADE score and mortality were examined.

Results

Duchenne Natural History Study enrolled 440 males, 12.6 ±6.1 years old, with 3,559 visits over 4.6 ±2.8 years, 45 deaths. MADE score increased with age and nonambulatory status. Mean MADE score per visit was 19 ±10 for those who died vs. 9.8 ±9.3 in survivors p=0.03. Baseline MADE score >12 predicted mortality independent of age (78% sensitivity, CPE.70). Rising MADE score trajectory was associated with mortality in models adjusted for enrollment age, follow-up time, and ambulatory status, all p<.001.

Conclusion

A multiorgan severity score, MADE, was developed to track cumulative morbidities that impact heart failure in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. MADE score predicted Duchenne Natural History Study mortality. MADE score can be used for serial heart failure assessment in males and may serve as an endpoint for Duchenne muscular dystrophy clinical research.

The teammate trial: Study design and rationale tacrolimus and everolimus against tacrolimus and MMF in pediatric heart transplantation using the major adverse transplant event (MATE) score

BACKGROUND

Currently there are no immunosuppression regimens FDA-approved to prevent rejection in pediatric heart transplantation (HT). In recent years, everolimus (EVL) has emerged as a potential alternative to standard tacrolimus (TAC) as the primary immunosuppressant to prevent rejection that may also reduce the risk of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection. However, the 2 regimens have never been compared head-to-head in a randomized trial. The study design and rationale are reviewed in light of the challenges inherent in rare disease research.

METHODS

The TEAMMATE trial (IND 127980) is the first multicenter randomized clinical trial (RCT) in pediatric HT. The primary purpose is to evaluate the safety and efficacy of EVL and low-dose TAC (LD-TAC) compared to standard-dose TAC and mycophenolate mofetil (MMF). Children aged <21 years at HT were randomized (1:1 ratio) at 6 months post-HT to either regimen, and followed for 30 months. Children with recurrent rejection, multi-organ transplant recipients, and those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <30 mL/min/1.73m² were excluded. The primary efficacy hypothesis is that, compared to TAC/MMF, EVL/LD-TAC is more effective in preventing 3 MATEs: acute cellular rejection (ACR), CKD and CAV. The primary safety hypothesis is that EVL/LD-TAC does not have a higher cumulative burden of 6 MATEs (antibody mediated rejection [AMR], infection, and post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder [PTLD] in addition to the 3 above). The primary endpoint is the MATE score, a composite, ordinal surrogate endpoint reflecting the frequency and severity of MATEs that is validated against graft loss. The study had a target sample size of 210 patients across 25 sites and is powered to demonstrate superior efficacy of EVL/LD-TAC. Trial enrollment is complete and participant follow-up will be completed in 2023.

CONCLUSION

The TEAMMATE trial is the first multicenter RCT in pediatric HT. It is anticipated that the study will provide important information about the safety and efficacy of everolimus vs tacrolimus-based regimens and will provide valuable lessons into the design and conduct of future trials in pediatric HT.

Multimodality Imaging to Detect Rejection, and Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy in Pediatric Heart Transplant Recipients—An Illustrative Review

The three most common modalities of graft surveillance in pediatric heart transplant (HT) recipients include echocardiography, coronary angiography, and endomyocardial biopsy (EMB). The survival outcomes after HT in children have improved considerably in recent years. However, allograft rejection and cardiac allograft vasculopathy remain the leading cause of death or re-transplantation. The routine surveillance by EMB and coronary angiography are invasive and risky. Newer noninvasive echocardiographic techniques, including tissue Doppler imaging (TDI), 2-D speckle tracking echocardiography, CT coronary angiography (CTCA), cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), and positron emission tomography (PET) and invasive techniques such as intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), functional flow reserve (CFR) of coronary arteries, optical coherence tomography (OCT), have emerged as powerful tools which may help early recognition of sub-clinical rejection, response to treatment, early detection, and progression of CAV. The multimodality imaging approach, including noninvasive and invasive tests, is the future for the transplanted heart to detect dysfunction, rejections, and early CAV. This review illustrates noninvasive and invasive imaging techniques currently used or could be considered for clinical use in detecting heart transplant rejection, dysfunction, and CAV in children.

External validation and comparison of risk score models in pediatric heart transplants

BACKGROUND

Pediatric heart transplant (PHT) patients have the highest waitlist mortality of solid organ transplants, yet more than 40% of viable hearts are unutilized. A tool for risk prediction could impact these outcomes. This study aimed to compare and validate the PHT risk score models (RSMs) in the literature.

METHODS

The literature was reviewed to identify RSMs published. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) registry was used to validate the published models identified in a pediatric cohort (<18 years) transplanted between 2017 and 2019 and compared against the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) 2021 model. Primary outcome was post-transplant 1-year mortality. Odds ratios were obtained to evaluate the association between risk score groups and 1-year mortality. Area under the curve (AUC) was used to compare the RSM scores on their goodness-of-fit, using Delong's test.

RESULTS

Six recipient and one donor RSMs published between 2008 and 2021 were included in the analysis. The validation cohort included 1,003 PHT. Low-risk groups had a significantly better survival than high-risk groups as predicted by Choudhry (OR = 4.59, 95% CI [2.36-8.93]) and Fraser III (3.17 [1.43-7.05]) models. Choudhry's and SRTR models achieved the best overall performance (AUC = 0.69 and 0.68, respectively). When adjusted for CHD and ventricular assist device support, all models reported better predictability [AUC > 0.6]. Choudhry (AUC = 0.69) and SRTR (AUC = 0.71) remained the best predicting RSMs even after adjustment.

CONCLUSION

Although the RSMs by SRTR and Choudhry provided the best prediction for 1-year mortality, none demonstrated a strong (AUC ≥ 0.8) concordance statistic. All published studies lacked advanced analytical approaches and were derived from an inherently limited dataset.

The complication rate of intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) in a multicenter pediatric heart transplant population: A study of the international pediatric IVUS consortium

BACKGROUND

Our purpose was to determine the complication rate from intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) in a large, multicenter cohort of pediatric heart transplant (PHT) patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed all PHT who underwent IVUS at 5 institutions (2006-2014). Rates of major and minor complications were calculated. All adverse events (AE) were graded from 1 to 5 using a previously published AE severity scale.

RESULTS

There were 1380 catheterizations in 505 patients and 32 AE (2.3%); 9 major (0.6%) and 23 AE (1.7%). The major AE attributed to IVUS were all coronary artery vasospasm (7). Major and minor AE rates directly related to IVUS were 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. Minor AE possibly attributable to IVUS included excessive fluoroscopy (3) and transient ST segment changes (7). Of AE related to IVUS, only 3 were of moderate severity. The rest were ≤ minor in severity. There were no reports of coronary artery dissection or death.

CONCLUSION

Most AE during routine PHT coronary evaluation with IVUS were minor and not directly related to the use of IVUS. The number of coronary related AE was similar to a registry-based report of coronary angiography alone. Efforts to minimize IVUS-related complications should be focused on preventing coronary artery vasospasm.

Children with heart transplants: Lessons learned from 774 visits at a primary community clinic

Aims Unexpected decompensation of PHTRs may surprise, when the patient is at home. If the PHTR lives a distance from transplant center, the task of identifying risk factors of allograft rejection/dysfunction falls primarily on the PCP in the PCC, whether or not they are knowledgeable toward pediatric heart-transplantation. Methods We reviewed the medical reports of three heart-transplanted children in our periphery clinic between the years 2005 and 2019. Results The unexpected death of one patient, hours after he left our health facility, was the impetus for writing this article. Another heart transplant child attended our periphery clinic for 774 visits. Majority of visits were casual, others were scheduled, and the rest were for administrative affairs. We referred the PHTR to the transplantation center in 9% of all visits. In remaining 91% visits, we handled problems locally. Conclusions One of the important lessons we have learned through handling the PHTR at the PCC is that, during daily workflows and dealing with the occasional visits of a heart transplant child, related critical clinical information to allograft rejection or its dysfunction can easily evade from awareness of the attending physician. Through this study, we demonstrated that a program of summoning the PHTR to "initiated monthly visits" at the PCC enables the PCP to be maximally aware of critical clinical information, in addition to limiting futile referrals of 91% of the visits to specialized centers, without adversely affecting the prognosis.

Pediatric heart transplantation in the current era

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To provide an international perspective and current review of pediatric heart transplantation (PHTx).

RECENT FINDINGS

Waitlist survival and long-term outcomes in PHTx continue to improve. Strategies to maximize donor pool utilization include ABO incompatible listing for infants and expanded donor-to-recipient weight ranges. However, there is a high degree of practice variation internationally, from listing strategies and donor acceptance practices to chronic immunosuppression regimens, long-term graft surveillance, and consideration for retransplantation.

SUMMARY

Common indications for PHTx include end-stage congenital heart disease and cardiomyopathy. Current median graft survival among PHTx recipients ranges from 13 to 22 years. Common morbidities include infection, rejection, renal dysfunction, coronary allograft vasculopathy, and posttransplant lymphoproliferative disease. International registry data, collaborative initiatives to standardize management, and multicenter studies continue to improve knowledge and advancement of the field.

Neutropenia in pediatric heart transplant recipients

Neutropenia has been reported in pediatric heart transplant recipients, but its association with infectious morbidity and mortality is unknown. We sought to determine neutropenia's prevalence and impact on infection, rejection, and survival. A retrospective analysis of pediatric heart transplant recipients from March 2005 to August 2015 was performed. Demographics, medications, infection, and rejection data were collected. Of 142 pediatric heart transplant recipients, 77 (54.2%) developed neutropenia within 4.7 months [3.3-12.1 months] of transplant. In all patients, the adjusted 5-year cumulative incidence of neutropenia was 30.2%. Fifty-one patients (66.2%) had recurrent neutropenia. Six of 14 tested had positive antineutrophil antibodies. Medications associated with neutropenia were decreased in 15 (19.5%) and discontinued in 42 (54.4%) patients with no change in 1-year rejection rates compared to published data. Fifteen patients developed infection within 30 days of neutropenia and two from 30 days to 1 year, with an infection rate similar to the non-neutropenic group. There was no significant difference in survival, ANC, rate of rejection or PTLD in neutropenic patients with and without infection at median follow-up (5.5 years). Neutropenia is common in pediatric heart transplant recipients. Neutropenia had <20% risk of associated infection, similar to non-neutropenic patients. Infection in neutropenic patients did not increase mortality.

Current state of pediatric cardiac transplantation

Pediatric heart transplantation is standard of care for children with end-stage heart failure. The diverse age range, diagnoses, and practice variations continue to challenge the development of evidence-based practices and new technologies. Outcomes in the most recent era are excellent, especially with the more widespread use of ventricular assist devices (VADs). Waitlist mortality remains high and knowledge of risk factors for death while waiting and following transplantation contributes to decision-making around transplant candidacy and timing of listing. The biggest gap impacting both waitlist and overall survival remains mechanical support options for infants and patients with single ventricle physiology. Though acute rejection has decreased progressively, both diagnosis and management of antibody-mediated rejection has become increasingly challenging and complex, as has the ability to understand the implication of anti-HLA antibodies detected both pre- and post-transplantation-including when and how to intervene. Trends in immunosuppression protocols include more use of induction therapy and steroid avoidance or withdrawal protocols. Common long-term morbidities include renal insufficiency, which can be mitigated with surveillance and renal-sparing strategies, and infections. Functional outcomes are excellent, but significant psychosocial challenges exist in relation to neurodevelopment, non-adherence, and transition from child-centered to adult-centered care. Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) remains a barrier to long-term survival, though it is more apparent that objective evidence of an impact on the allograft is important with regards to impact on outcomes. Retransplantation is rare in pediatric heart transplant recipients. Pediatric heart transplantation continues to evolve in order to address the challenges of the diverse group of patients that reach end-stage heart failure during childhood.