Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

Current and Future Spatial Distribution of the Aedes aegypti in Peru Based on Topoclimatic Analysis and Climate Change Scenarios

Dengue, a febrile disease that has caused epidemics and deaths in South America, especially Peru, is vectored by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Despite the seriousness of dengue fever, and the expanding range of Ae. aegypti, future distributions of the vector and disease in the context of climate change have not yet been clearly determined. Expanding on previous findings, our study employed bioclimatic and topographic variables to model both the present and future distribution of the Ae. aegypti mosquito using the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results indicate that 10.23% (132,053.96 km2) and 23.65% (305,253.82 km2) of Peru's surface area possess regions with high and moderate distribution probabilities, respectively, predominantly located in the departments of San Martín, Piura, Loreto, Lambayeque, Cajamarca, Amazonas, and Cusco. Moreover, based on projected future climate scenarios, it is anticipated that areas with a high probability of Ae. aegypti distribution will undergo expansion; specifically, the extent of these areas is estimated to increase by 4.47% and 2.99% by the years 2070 and 2100, respectively, under SSP2-4.5 in the HadGEM-GC31-LL model. Given the increasing dengue epidemic in Peru in recent years, our study seeks to identify tools for effectively addressing this pressing public health concern. Consequently, this research serves as a foundational framework for assessing areas with the highest likelihood of Ae. aegypti distribution in response to projected climate change in the second half of the 21st century.

A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-Term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk

BACKGROUND

Climate change is predicted to profoundly impact dengue transmission risk, yet a thorough review of evidence is necessary to refine understanding of climate scenarios, projection periods, spatial resolutions, and modeling approaches.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a state-of-the-science review to comprehensively understand long-term dengue risk predictions under climate change, identify research gaps, and provide evidence-based guidelines for future studies.

METHODS

We searched three medical databases (PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science) up to 5 December 2024 to extract relevant modeling studies. An a priori search strategy, predefined eligibility criteria, and systematic data extraction procedures were implemented to identify and evaluate studies.

RESULTS

Of 5,035 studies retrieved, 57 met inclusion criteria. Prediction for dengue risk ranged from 1950 to 2115, and 52.63% (n = 30 ) of all studies used Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Specifically, RCP 8.5 (34.94%; n = 29 ), Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2 (32.35%; n = 11 ), and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1 (58.33%; n = 7 ) were utilized the most among all the RCPs, SSPs, and SRES climate change scenarios. Most studies (57.89%; n = 33 ) used only climatic variables for the prediction, and 21.05% (n = 12 ) of studies employed fine spatial resolution (≈ 1 km ) for the climate data. We identified that correlative approach was used mostly across the studies for modeling the future risk (61.40%; n = 35 ). Among mechanistic models, 35% (n = 7 ) lacked outcome validation, and 75% (n = 15 ) did not report model evaluation metrics.

DISCUSSION

We identified the urgent need to strengthen dengue databases, use finer spatial resolutions to integrate big data, and incorporate potential socioenvironmental factors such as human movement, vegetation, microclimate, and vector control efficacy in modeling. Utilizing appropriate spatiotemporal models and validation techniques will be crucial for developing functional climate-driven early warning systems for dengue fever. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14463.

Mapping environmental suitability changes for arbovirus mosquitoes in Southeast Asia: 1960-2020

Spatial epidemiology recognizes the impact of environmental factors on human infectious diseases through disease vectors. The expansion of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus raises concerns about health risks due to their changing distribution. However, current mosquito mapping methods have low spatial resolution and limited focus on long-term trends and factors. This study develops a high-resolution framework (500 m) to map mosquito distribution in Southeast Asia from 1960 to 2020. It includes a species distribution model, a spatial autocorrelation model, and a geographical detector model. The study produces Southeast Asia's first 500 m resolution map of mosquito suitability, revealing significant increases in mosquito suitability in most cities over the past 60 years. The analysis indicates a shift in high-suitability areas from coastal to inland regions, with nighttime land surface temperature playing a key role. These findings are crucial for regional risk assessments and mitigation strategies related to vector-borne diseases.

Impact of climate change on Colombian Pacific coast mangrove bivalves distribution

The mangrove bivalves, Anadara tuberculosa and Anadara similis, are pivotal for the Colombian Pacific coast mangrove ecosystems and economies. In this study, the current and future potential distribution of these bivalves is modeled considering climate change. The future models (2030 and 2050) were projected considering the new climate scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5) proposed by the IPCC in its sixth report. Our findings reveal areas in the Colombian Pacific coast, notably Nariño, Cauca, southern Valle del Cauca, and Chocó, with high environmental suitability for these bivalves. However, the 2050 projections, especially under the pessimistic SSP5 scenario, indicate potential adverse impacts from climate change. By 2030 and 2050, the species might lean more toward a southwesterly distribution in the Colombian Pacific coast. Climate-induced spatiotemporal mismatches could occur between the bivalves and the mangroves in some areas. These insights are crucial for effective conservation and management strategies for these species.

Predicting the current and future distribution of Monochamus carolinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) based on the maximum entropy model

BACKGROUND

Monochamus carolinensis is an important vector of pinewood nematodes in North America that is under quarantine in several countries worldwide. The distribution of M. carolinensis was previously thought to be limited to North America; however, we discovered it during trapping in China in 2022. Using this discovery and information regarding the area of origin, we applied a machine-learning algorithm based on the maximum entropy principle to predict the current and future (2050s, 2070s) potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis using bioclimatic variables.

RESULTS

The biological suitability of M. carolinensis was mainly driven by precipitation factors (BIO18, BIO15, BIO19), with 87.18% of the potential distribution areas located in South America, Asia, North America and Africa. Future potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis are predicted to expand to high latitudes, with an average increase of 10 245 874.88 km2 , and only 6.89% of the current suitable areas will become unsuitable. The potential distribution areas in 2070 are largest under the SSP585 scenario, with a 41.40% predicted increase (52 309 803.61 km2 ) above the current distribution, mainly reflecting an increase of the marginally and highly suitable areas.

CONCLUSION

The determination of dominant climatic factors and potential distribution areas will help provide an early warning for an M. carolinensis invasion, as well as provide a scientific basis for the spread and outbreak, facilitating development of effective governmental prevention and control measures. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

Risk of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya transmission in the metropolitan area of Cucuta, Colombia: cross-sectional analysis, baseline for a cluster-randomised controlled trial of a novel vector tool for water containers

BACKGROUND

Arbovirus diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya are a public health threat in tropical and subtropical areas. In the absence of a vaccine or specific treatment, vector management (in this case the control of the primary vector Aedes aegypti) is the best practice to prevent the three diseases. A good understanding of vector behaviour, ecology, human mobility and water use can help design effective vector control programmes. This study collected baseline information on these factors for identifying the arbovirus transmission risk and assessed the requirements for a large intervention trial in Colombia.

METHODS

Baseline surveys were conducted in 5,997 households, randomly selected from 24 clusters (neighbourhoods with on average 2000 houses and 250 households inspected) in the metropolitan area of Cucuta, Colombia. The study established population characteristics including water management and mobility as well as larval-pupal indices which were estimated and compared in all clusters. Additionally, the study estimated disease incidence from two sources: self-reported dengue cases in the household survey and cases notified by the national surveillance system.

RESULTS

In all 24 study clusters similar social and demographic characteristics were found but the entomological indicators and estimated disease incidence rates varied. The entomological indicators showed a high vector infestation: House Index = 25.1%, Container Index = 12.3% and Breteau Index = 29.6. Pupae per person Index (PPI) as an indicator of the transmission risk showed a large range from 0.22 to 2.04 indicating a high transmission risk in most clusters. The concrete ground tanks for laundry -mostly outdoors and uncovered- were the containers with the highest production of Ae. aegypti as 86.3% of all 17,613 pupae were identified in these containers. Also, the annual incidence of dengue was high: 841.6 self-reported cases per 100,000 inhabitants and the dengue incidence notified by the National surveillance system was 1,013.4 cases per 100,000 in 2019. Only 2.2% of the households used container water for drinking. 40.3% of the study population travelled during the day (when Aedes mosquitoes bite) outside their clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

The production of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes occurred almost exclusively in concrete ground tanks for laundry (lavadero), the primary intervention target. The baseline study provides necessary evidence for the design and implementation of a cluster randomized intervention trial in Colombia.

Assessing the impact of climate conditions on the distribution of mosquito species in Qatar

Qatar is a peninsular country with predominantly hot and humid weather, with 88% of the total population being immigrants. As such, it leaves the country liable to the introduction and dissemination of vector-borne diseases, in part due to the presence of native arthropod vectors. Qatar's weather is expected to become warmer with the changing climatic conditions across the globe. Environmental factors such as humidity and temperature contribute to the breeding and distribution of different types of mosquito species in a given region. If proper and timely precautions are not taken, a high rate of particular mosquito species can result in the transmission of various vector-borne diseases. In this study, we analyzed the environmental impact on the probability of occurrence of different mosquito species collected from several different sites in Qatar. The Naive Bayes model was used to calculate the posterior probability for various mosquito species. Further, the resulting Naive Bayes predictions were used to define the favorable environmental circumstances for identified mosquito species. The findings of this study will help in the planning and implementation of an active surveillance system and preventive measures to curb the spread of mosquitoes in Qatar.

Larvicidal, antioxidant and biotoxicity assessment of (2-(((2-ethyl-2 methylhexyl)oxy)carbonyl)benzoic acid isolated from Bacillus pumilus against Aedes aegypti, Anopheles stephensi and Culex quinquefasciatus

Mosquitoes are a vector for many dreadful diseases known for their public health concern. The continued use of synthetic insecticides against vector control has led to serious environmental impacts, human health problems, and the development of insect resistance. Hence, alternative mosquito control methods are needed to protect the environment and human health. In the present study, the bioefficacy of (2-(((2-ethyl-2 methylhexyl)oxy)carbonyl) benzoic acid isolated from Bacillus pumilus were tested against Aedes aegypti, Culex quinquefasciatus and Anopheles stephensi. The isolated bioactive compound was characterized through thin layer chromatography (TLC), UV-visible spectroscopy (UV), Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis. The pure compound caused a high percent mortality rate in a dose-dependent manner, the obtained values were 96, 82, 69, 50 and 34%; 86, 72, 56, 43, and 44%; 100, 90, 83, 70 and 56% against Ae. aegypti, Cx. quinquefasciatus, and An. stephensi respectively. The effective lethal concentration values (LC₅₀) were 13.65, 14.90 and 9.64 ppm against Ae. aegypti, Cx. quinquefasciatus, An. Stephensi, respectively. The effect of (2-(((2-ethyl-2 methylhexyl)oxy)carbonyl) benzoic acid significantly increased the superoxide dismutase, catalase, α, β esterase and Glutathione-S-transferase level after 24 h of the treatment period. The comet assay confirmed that isolated compound causes DNA damage in all tested insects. Histopathological examinations of treated larvae showed shrunken body posture, damaged epithelial cells and microvillus as compared to control organisms. The biosafety of the isolated compound was assessed against G. affinis and did not produce mortality which confirmed that the activity of the isolated compound is species specific. The current study concludes that the critical success factors of new insecticidal agent development are based on the eco-compatibility and alternative tools for the pesticide producing industry.

Local-scale virome depiction in Medellín, Colombia, supports significant differences between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Aedes spp. comprise the primary group of mosquitoes that transmit arboviruses such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses to humans, and thus these insects pose a significant burden on public health worldwide. Advancements in next-generation sequencing and metagenomics have expanded our knowledge on the richness of RNA viruses harbored by arthropods such as Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Increasing evidence suggests that vector competence can be modified by the microbiome (comprising both bacteriome and virome) of mosquitoes present in endemic zones. Using an RNA-seq-based metataxonomic approach, this study determined the virome structure, Wolbachia presence and mitochondrial diversity of field-caught Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes in Medellín, Colombia, a municipality with a high incidence of mosquito-transmitted arboviruses. The two species are sympatric, but their core viromes differed considerably in richness, diversity, and abundance; although the community of viral species identified was large and complex, the viromes were dominated by few virus species. BLAST searches of assembled contigs suggested that at least 17 virus species (16 of which are insect-specific viruses [ISVs]) infect the Ae. aegypti population. Dengue virus 3 was detected in one sample and it was the only pathogenic virus detected. In Ae. albopictus, up to 11 ISVs and one plant virus were detected. Therefore, the virome composition appears to be species-specific. The bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia was identified in all Ae. albopictus samples and in some Ae. aegypti samples collected after 2017. The presence of Wolbachia sp. in Ae. aegypti was not related to significant changes in the richness, diversity, or abundance of this mosquito’s virome, although it was related to an increase in the abundance of Aedes aegypti To virus 2 (Metaviridae). The mitochondrial diversity of these mosquitoes suggested that the Ae. aegypti population underwent a change that started in the second half of 2017, which coincides with the release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Medellín, indicating that the population of wMel-infected mosquitoes released has introduced new alleles into the wild Ae. aegypti population of Medellín. However, additional studies are required on the dispersal speed and intergenerational stability of wMel in Medellín and nearby areas as well as on the introgression of genetic variants in the native mosquito population.

Changes in Mangrove Carbon Stocks and Exposure to Sea Level Rise (SLR) under Future Climate Scenarios

Mangrove ecosystems are threatened by a variety of anthropogenic changes, including climate change. The main aim of this research is to quantify the spatial variation in the different mangrove carbon stocks, aboveground carbon (AGC), belowground carbon (BGC), and soil carbon (SOC), under future climate scenarios. Additionally, we sought to identify the magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) exposure with the view of identifying the mangrove regions most likely to face elevated inundation. Different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) ranging from the most optimistic (RCP 2.6) to medium emissions (RCP 4.5) and the most pessimistic (RCP 8.5) were considered for 2070. We used the Marine Ecoregions of the World (MEOW), a biogeographical classification of coastal ecosystems, to quantify the variation in future carbon stocks at a regional scale and identify areas of potential carbon stock losses and gains. Here, we showed that the mangroves of Central and Western Indo-Pacific islands (Andamans, Papua New Guinea, and Vanuatu), the west African coast, and northeastern South America will be the worst hit and are projected to affect all three carbon stocks under all future scenarios. For instance, the Andaman ecoregion is projected to have an 11–25% decline in SOC accumulation, while the Western Indo-Pacific realm is projected to undergo the sharpest declines, ranging from 10% to 12% under all three scenarios. Examples of these areas are those in Amazonia and the eastern part of South Asia (such as in the Northern Bay of Bengal ecoregion). Based on these findings, conservation management of mangroves can be conducted.

Aedes aegypti in the Mediterranean container ports at the time of climate change: A time bomb on the mosquito vector map of Europe

In the past, Aedes aegypti was present in Southern Europe. Although the mosquito was eradicated from the Mediterranean region, its regional ecotype survived the second half of the 20th century in the eastern Black Sea area. The aim of the study was to model the changes in the altering climatic suitability, ontogenetic development time and the survival rate of Aedes aegypti from first-stage larvae to adulthood in Southern Europe. The modelled present climatic suitability patterns of the mosquito show that large areas of the lower altitude Mediterranean regions, including the coastal areas of the Balkan Peninsula, South France, and large regions of the Apennines and the Iberian Peninsulas could be suitable for Ae. aegypti. The future (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) projections predict the potential northward shift of the northern occurrence of the species in the circum-Mediterranean and Black Sea areas. Both, the potential development time, and survival rate of Ae. aegypti in the late 19th and the early 20th century could be like in the present times along the Mediterranean coast. The current climatic conditions cannot explain the absence of the mosquito in wide areas of the Mediterranean and sub-Mediterranean ecoregions. The future models predict the notable increase in the development time and survival rate of the mosquito in the southern and central regions of Europe. In general, the container ports of the Alboran, Balearic, and Aegean seas seem to be the most suitable sites for the re-colonization of the mosquito, and such northern parts of the Mediterranean Sea like the Gulf of Lion, the Ligurian, and Adriatic Seas are in less extent.

Climatic and socio-economic factors supporting the co-circulation of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in three different ecosystems in Colombia

Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are diseases of global health significance caused by arboviruses and transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, which is of worldwide circulation. The arrival of the Zika and chikungunya viruses to South America increased the complexity of transmission and morbidity caused by these viruses co-circulating in the same vector mosquito species. Here we present an integrated analysis of the reported arbovirus cases between 2007 and 2017 and local climate and socio-economic profiles of three distinct Colombian municipalities (Bello, Cúcuta and Moniquirá). These locations were confirmed as three different ecosystems given their contrasted geographic, climatic and socio-economic profiles. Correlational analyses were conducted with both generalised linear models and generalised additive models for the geographical data. Average temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed were strongly correlated with disease incidence. The transmission of Zika during the 2016 epidemic appeared to decrease circulation of dengue in Cúcuta, an area of sustained high incidence of dengue. Socio-economic factors such as barriers to health and childhood services, inadequate sanitation and poor water supply suggested an unfavourable impact on the transmission of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in all three ecosystems. Socio-demographic influencers were also discussed including the influx of people to Cúcuta, fleeing political and economic instability from neighbouring Venezuela. Aedes aegypti is expanding its range and increasing the global threat of these diseases. It is therefore vital that we learn from the epidemiology of these arboviruses and translate it into an actionable local knowledge base. This is even more acute given the recent historical high of dengue cases in the Americas in 2019, preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, which is itself hampering mosquito control efforts.

Botanical insecticide-based nanosystems for the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti larvae

Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti is a cosmopolitan species that transmits arbovirus of medical importance as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. The main strategy employed for the control of this mosquito is the use of larvicidal agents. However, the overuse of synthetic chemical larvicides has led to an increase in resistant insects, making management difficult. Therefore, the use of botanical insecticide-based nanosystems as an alternative to the use of synthetic agents for the control of Ae. aegypti has gained more considerable attention in the last years, mainly due to the advantages of nanostructured delivery systems, such as (a) controlled release; (b) greater surface area; (c) improvement of biological activity; (d) protection of natural bioactive agents from the environment and thus achieving stability; and (e) lipophilic drugs are easier dispersed even in aqueous vehicles. This review summarizes the current knowledge about botanical insecticide-based nanosystems as larvicidal against Ae. aegypti larvae. The majority of papers used metallic nanoparticles (NPs) as larvicidal agents, mainly silver nanoparticles (AgNPs), showing potential for their use as an alternative, followed by nanoemulsions containing vegetable oils, most essential oils, nanosystems that allow the dispersion of this high hydrophobic product in water, the environment of larval development. The final section describes scientific findings about the mode of action of these NPs, showing the gap about this subject in literature.