Socioeconomic factors analysis for COVID-19 US reopening sentiment with Twitter and census data

Analysis of the evolving factors of social media users' emotions and behaviors: a longitudinal study from China's COVID-19 opening policy period

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered citizen panic and social crises worldwide. The Chinese government was the first to implement strict prevention and control policies. However, in December 2022, the Chinese government suddenly changed its prevention and control policies and completely opened up. This led to a large-scale infection of the epidemic in a short period of time, which will cause unknown social impacts. This study collected 500+ epidemic-related hotspots and 200,000+ data from November 1, 2022, to March 1, 2023. Using a sentiment classification method based on pre-trained neural network models, we conducted inductive analysis and a summary of high-frequency words of various emotions. This study focuses on the inflection point of the emotional evolution of social media users and the evolution of "hot topic searches" events and emotional behavioral factors after the sudden open policy. Our research results show that, first of all, the positive emotions of social media users are divided into 4 inflection points and 5 time periods, and the negative emotions are divided into 3 inflection points and 4 time periods. Behavioral factors are different at each stage of each emotion. And the evolution patterns of positive emotions and negative emotions are also different. Secondly, the evolution of behavioral elements deserves more attention. Continue to pay attention: The treatment of diseases, the recovery of personal health, the promotion of festive atmosphere, and the reduction of publicity on the harm of "new crown sequelae and second infections" are the behavioral concerns that affect users' emotional changes. Finally, it is necessary to change the "hot topic searches" event by guiding the user's behavioral focus to control the inflection point of the user's emotion. This study helps governments and institutions understand the dynamic impact of epidemic policy changes on social media users, thereby promoting policy formulation and better coping with social crises.

Governmental anti-pandemic policies, vaccination, population mobility, Twitter narratives, and the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the European Union countries

We provide large-scale empirical evidence on the effects of multiple governmental regulatory and health policies, vaccination, population mobility, and COVID-19-related Twitter narratives on the spread of a new coronavirus infection. Using multiple-level fixed effects panel data model with weekly data for 27 European Union countries in the period of March 2020-June 2021, we show that governmental response policies were effective both in reducing the number of COVID-19 infection cases and deaths from it, particularly, in the countries with higher level of rule of law. Vaccination expectedly helped to decrease the number of virus cases. Reductions in population mobility in public places and workplaces were also powerful in fighting the pandemic. Next, we identify four core pandemic-related Twitter narratives: governmental response policies, people's sad feelings during the pandemic, vaccination, and pandemic-related international politics. We find that sad feelings' narrative helped to combat the virus spread in EU countries. Our findings also reveal that while in countries with high rule of law international politics' narrative helped to reduce the virus spread, in countries with low rule of law the effect was strictly the opposite. The latter finding suggests that trust in politicians played an important role in confronting the pandemic.

A study on the emotional and attitudinal behaviors of social media users under the sudden reopening policy of the Chinese government

Introduction

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government has implemented a series of strict prevention and control policies to prevent the spread of the virus. Recently, the Chinese government suddenly changed its approach and lifted all prevention and control measures. This sudden change in policy is expected to lead to a widespread outbreak of COVID-19 in China, and the public and local governments are not adequately prepared for the unknown impact on society. The change in the "emergency" prevention and control policy provides a unique research perspective for this study.

Methods

The purpose of this study is to analyze the public's attitudes and emotional responses to COVID-19 under the sudden opening policy, identify the key factors that contribute to these attitudes and emotions, and propose solutions. In response to this sudden situation, we conducted data mining on topics and discussions related to the opening of the epidemic on Sina Weibo, collecting 125,686 interactive comments. We used artificial intelligence technology to analyze the attitudes and emotions reflected in each data point, identify the key factors that contribute to these attitudes and emotions, explore the underlying reasons, and find corresponding solutions.

Results

The results of the study show that in the face of the sudden release of the epidemic, the public mostly exhibited negative emotions and behaviors, with many people experiencing anxiety and panic. However, the gradual resumption of daily life and work has also led some people to exhibit positive attitudes.

Conclusion

The significance of this study is to help the government and institutions understand the impact of policy implementation on users, and to enable them to adjust policies in a timely manner to respond to potential social risks. The government, emergency departments, and the public can all prepare for similar situations based on the conclusions of this study.

Pandemic vulnerability index of US cities: A hybrid knowledge-based and data-driven approach

Cities become mission-critical zones during pandemics and it is vital to develop a better understanding of the factors that are associated with infection levels. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted many cities severely; however, there is significant variance in its impact across cities. Pandemic infection levels are associated with inherent features of cities (e.g., population size, density, mobility patterns, socioeconomic condition, and health & environment), which need to be better understood. Intuitively, the infection levels are expected to be higher in big urban agglomerations, but the measurable influence of a specific urban feature is unclear. The present study examines 41 variables and their potential influence on the incidence of COVID-19 infection cases. The study uses a multi-method approach to study the influence of variables, classified as demographic, socioeconomic, mobility and connectivity, urban form and density, and health and environment dimensions. This study develops an index dubbed the pandemic vulnerability index at city level (PVI-CI) for classifying the pandemic vulnerability levels of cities, grouping them into five vulnerability classes, from very high to very low. Furthermore, clustering and outlier analysis provides insights on the spatial clustering of cities with high and low vulnerability scores. This study provides strategic insights into levels of influence of key variables upon the spread of infections, along with an objective ranking for the vulnerability of cities. Thus, it provides critical wisdom needed for urban healthcare policy and resource management. The calculation method for the pandemic vulnerability index and the associated analytical process present a blueprint for the development of similar indices for cities in other countries, leading to a better understanding and improved pandemic management for urban areas, and more resilient planning for future pandemics in cities across the world.

Sentiment Analysis on Multimodal Transportation during the COVID-19 Using Social Media Data

This paper aims to leverage Twitter data to understand travel mode choices during the pandemic. Tweets related to different travel modes in New York City (NYC) are fetched from Twitter in the two most recent years (January 2020–January 2022). Building on these data, we develop travel mode classifiers, adapted from natural language processing (NLP) models, to determine whether individual tweets are related to some travel mode (subway, bus, bike, taxi/Uber, and private vehicle). Sentiment analysis is performed to understand people’s attitudinal changes about mode choices during the pandemic. Results show that a majority of people had a positive attitude toward buses, bikes, and private vehicles, which is consistent with the phenomenon of many commuters shifting away from subways to buses, bikes and private vehicles during the pandemic. We analyze negative tweets related to travel modes and find that people were worried about those who did not wear masks on subways and buses. Based on users’ demographic information, we conduct regression analysis to analyze what factors affected people’s attitude toward public transit. We find that the attitude of users in the service industry was more easily affected by MTA subway service during the pandemic.

A global portrait of expressed mental health signals towards COVID-19 in social media space

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has induced a mental health crisis. Social media data offer a unique opportunity to track the mental health signals of a given population and quantify their negativity towards COVID-19. To date, however, we know little about how negative sentiments differ across countries and how these relate to the shifting policy landscape experienced through the pandemic. Using 2.1 billion individual-level geotagged tweets posted between 1 February 2020 and 31 March 2021, we track, monitor and map the shifts in negativity across 217 countries and unpack its relationship with COVID-19 policies. Findings reveal that there are important geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic disparities of negativity across continents, different levels of a nation's income, population density, and the level of COVID-19 infection. Countries with more stringent policies were associated with lower levels of negativity, a relationship that weakened in later phases of the pandemic. This study provides the first global and multilingual evaluation of the public's real-time mental health signals to COVID-19 at a large spatial and temporal scale. We offer an empirical framework to monitor mental health signals globally, helping international authorizations, including the United Nations and World Health Organization, to design smart country-specific mental health initiatives in response to the ongoing pandemic and future public emergencies.

Using Twitter Data to Estimate the Prevalence of Symptoms of Mental Disorders in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Ecological Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Existing research and national surveillance data suggest an increase of the prevalence of mental disorders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Social media platforms, such as Twitter, could be a source of data for estimation owing to its real-time nature, high availability, and large geographical coverage. However, there is a dearth of studies validating the accuracy of the prevalence of mental disorders on Twitter compared to that reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to verify the feasibility of Twitter-based prevalence of mental disorders symptoms being an instrument for prevalence estimation, where feasibility is gauged via correlations between Twitter-based prevalence of mental disorder symptoms (ie, anxiety and depressive symptoms) and that based on national surveillance data. In addition, this study aims to identify how the correlations changed over time (ie, the temporal trend).

METHODS

State-level prevalence of anxiety and depressive symptoms was retrieved from the national Household Pulse Survey (HPS) of the CDC from April 2020 to July 2021. Tweets were retrieved from the Twitter streaming application programming interface during the same period and were used to estimate the prevalence of symptoms of mental disorders for each state using keyword analysis. Stratified linear mixed models were used to evaluate the correlations between the Twitter-based prevalence of symptoms of mental disorders and those reported by the CDC. The magnitude and significance of model parameters were considered to evaluate the correlations. Temporal trends of correlations were tested after adding the time variable to the model. Geospatial differences were compared on the basis of random effects.

RESULTS

Pearson correlation coefficients between the overall prevalence reported by the CDC and that on Twitter for anxiety and depressive symptoms were 0.587 (P<.001) and 0.368 (P<.001), respectively. Stratified by 4 phases (ie, April 2020, August 2020, October 2020, and April 2021) defined by the HPS, linear mixed models showed that Twitter-based prevalence for anxiety symptoms had a positive and significant correlation with CDC-reported prevalence in phases 2 and 3, while a significant correlation for depressive symptoms was identified in phases 1 and 3.

CONCLUSIONS

Positive correlations were identified between Twitter-based and CDC-reported prevalence, and temporal trends of these correlations were found. Geospatial differences in the prevalence of symptoms of mental disorders were found between the northern and southern United States. Findings from this study could inform future investigation on leveraging social media platforms to estimate symptoms of mental disorders and the provision of immediate prevention measures to improve health outcomes.

The Turing Teacher: Identifying core attributes for AI learning in K-12

Introduction

Artificial intelligence in the educational domain has many uses; however, using AI specifically to enhance education and teaching in a K-12 environment poses the most significant challenges to its use. Beyond usage and application, the quality of the education is made even more arduous due to the dynamics of teaching primary and secondary school children, whose needs far exceed mere fact recollection. Utilizing prior research using AI in education and online education in the K-12 space, we explore some of the hurdles that AI applications face in K-12 teaching and provide core attributes for a "Turing Teacher," i.e., an AI powered technology for learning, specifically targeting the K-12 space.

Methods

Using a survey, which included qualitative responses during the implementation of online learning during the Covid Pandemic, we analyze the results using univariate and multivariate tests and analyzed the qualitative responses to create core attributes needed for AI powered teaching technology.

Results

The results present the challenges faced by any technology in an education setting and show that AI technology must help overcome negative feelings about technology in education. Further, the core attributes identified in the research must be addressed from the three stakeholder perspectives of teachers, parents and students.

Discussion

We present our findings and lay the groundwork for future research in the area of AI powered education. The Turing Teacher must be able to adapt and collaborate with real teachers and address the varying needs of students. In addition, we explore the use of AI technology as a means to close the digital divide in traditionally disadvantaged communities.

Nowcasting unemployment rate during the COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter data: The case of South Africa

The global economy has been hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many countries are experiencing a severe and destructive recession. A significant number of firms and businesses have gone bankrupt or been scaled down, and many individuals have lost their jobs. The main goal of this study is to support policy- and decision-makers with additional and real-time information about the labor market flow using Twitter data. We leverage the data to trace and nowcast the unemployment rate of South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we create a dataset of unemployment-related tweets using certain keywords. Principal Component Regression (PCR) is then applied to nowcast the unemployment rate using the gathered tweets and their sentiment scores. Numerical results indicate that the volume of the tweets has a positive correlation, and the sentiments of the tweets have a negative correlation with the unemployment rate during and before the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the now-casted unemployment rate using PCR has an outstanding evaluation result with a low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Symmetric MAPE (SMAPE) of 0.921, 0.018, 0.018, respectively and a high R²-score of 0.929.

Enhanced sentiment analysis regarding COVID-19 news from global channels

For a healthy society to exist, it is crucial for the media to focus on disease-related issues so that more people are widely aware of them and reduce health risks. Recently, deep neural networks have become a popular tool for textual sentiment analysis, which can provide valuable insights and real-time monitoring and analysis regarding health issues. In this paper, as part of an effort to develop an effective model that can elicit public sentiment on COVID-19 news, we propose a novel approach Cov-Att-BiLSTM for sentiment analysis of COVID-19 news headlines using deep neural networks. We integrate attention mechanisms, embedding techniques, and semantic level data labeling into the prediction process to enhance the accuracy. To evaluate the proposed approach, we compared it to several deep and machine learning classifiers using various metrics of categorization efficiency and prediction quality, and the experimental results demonstrate its superiority with 0.931 testing accuracy. Furthermore, 73,138 pandemic-related tweets posted on six global channels were analyzed by the proposed approach, which accurately reflects global coverage of COVID-19 news and vaccination.

Public sentiments toward COVID-19 vaccines in South African cities: An analysis of Twitter posts

Amidst the COVID-19 vaccination, Twitter is one of the most popular platforms for discussions about the COVID-19 vaccination. These types of discussions most times lead to a compromise of public confidence toward the vaccine. The text-based data generated by these discussions are used by researchers to extract topics and perform sentiment analysis at the provincial, country, or continent level without considering the local communities. The aim of this study is to use clustered geo-tagged Twitter posts to inform city-level variations in sentiments toward COVID-19 vaccine-related topics in the three largest South African cities (Cape Town, Durban, and Johannesburg). VADER, an NLP pre-trained model was used to label the Twitter posts according to their sentiments with their associated intensity scores. The outputs were validated using NB (0.68), LR (0.75), SVMs (0.70), DT (0.62), and KNN (0.56) machine learning classification algorithms. The number of new COVID-19 cases significantly positively correlated with the number of Tweets in South Africa (Corr = 0.462, P < 0.001). Out of the 10 topics identified from the tweets using the LDA model, two were about the COVID-19 vaccines: uptake and supply, respectively. The intensity of the sentiment score for the two topics was associated with the total number of vaccines administered in South Africa (P < 0.001). Discussions regarding the two topics showed higher intensity scores for the neutral sentiment class (P = 0.015) than for other sentiment classes. Additionally, the intensity of the discussions on the two topics was associated with the total number of vaccines administered, new cases, deaths, and recoveries across the three cities (P < 0.001). The sentiment score for the most discussed topic, vaccine uptake, differed across the three cities, with (P = 0.003), (P = 0.002), and (P < 0.001) for positive, negative, and neutral sentiments classes, respectively. The outcome of this research showed that clustered geo-tagged Twitter posts can be used to better analyse the dynamics in sentiments toward community-based infectious diseases-related discussions, such as COVID-19, Malaria, or Monkeypox. This can provide additional city-level information to health policy in planning and decision-making regarding vaccine hesitancy for future outbreaks.

Associations between COVID-19 Pandemic, Lockdown Measures and Human Mobility: Longitudinal Evidence from 86 Countries

Recognizing an urgent need to understand the dynamics of the pandemic's severity, this longitudinal study is conducted to explore the evolution of complex relationships between the COVID-19 pandemic, lockdown measures, and social distancing patterns in a diverse set of 86 countries. Collecting data from multiple sources, a structural equation modeling (SEM) technique is applied to understand the interdependencies between independent variables, mediators, and dependent variables. Results show that lockdown and confinement measures are very effective to reduce human mobility at retail and recreation facilities, transit stations, and workplaces and encourage people to stay home and thereby control COVID-19 transmission at critical times. The study also found that national contexts rooted in socioeconomic and institutional factors influence social distancing patterns and severity of the pandemic, particularly with regard to the vulnerability of people, treatment costs, level of globalization, employment distribution, and degree of independence in society. Additionally, this study portrayed a mutual relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and human mobility. A higher number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths reduces human mobility and the countries with reduced personal mobility have experienced a deepening of the severity of the pandemic. However, the effect of mobility on pandemic severity is stronger than the effect of pandemic situations on mobility. Overall, the study displays considerable temporal changes in the relationships between independent variables, mediators, and dependent variables considering pandemic situations and lockdown regimes, which provides a critical knowledge base for future handling of pandemics. It has also accommodated some policy guidelines for the authority to control the transmission of COVID-19.

The impact of COVID-19 on tertiary educational institutions and students in Bangladesh

The COVID-19 forced to transform face-to-face mode of teaching to virtual in educational institutions around the globe that not only impact institutional stakeholders, but also posed as a threat to entire humanity because, all parties related to education had to change their activities. The intentions of this study therefore firstly, to determine the content analysis by interviewing tertiary students and secondly, to determine the frequency distribution by questionnaire developed from results of the content analysis. To better understand the consequences of this outbreak, we took an interview from forty respondents, including undergraduate and postgraduate students across Bangladesh. Results of Content analysis revealed that stakeholders of tertiary education are encountering severe problems in mental health, financial, technical, and study. A questionnaire was designed based on results were obtained through content analysis and distributed using email, WhatsApp, LinkedIn, Telegram, Facebook, and Instagram from May 20 to May 30, 2021. A total number of 505 valid questionnaires were received from respondents. Frequency distribution analysis disclosed that 60% respondents have no separate reading rooms. Laptops and desktops are commonly used for online classes, but unfortunately, 21% respondents have no personal electronic gadgets. Moreover, 55% reported spending less time to study during the coronavirus outbreak. Furthermore, 88% respondents reported experiencing mental health-related stress, anxiety, and depression problems. The proportion that suffered financial crisis, family disruptions, internet and technology related problems were 79%, 83% and 72% respectively. Since coronavirus pandemic is a totally new phenomenon in the world, not much empirical literature exist. So we fill the gap, investigating the issue empirically using content and frequency distribution analysis. Policy implications and recommendations are discussed accordingly.

Sentiment Analysis in Social Media Data for Depression Detection Using Artificial Intelligence: A Review

Sentiment analysis is an emerging trend nowadays to understand people's sentiments in multiple situations in their quotidian life. Social media data would be utilized for the entire process ie the analysis and classification processes and it consists of text data and emoticons, emojis, etc. Many experiments were conducted in the antecedent studies utilizing Binary and Ternary Classification whereas Multi-class Classification gives more precise and precise Classification. In Multi-class Classification, the data would be divided into multiple sub-classes predicated on the polarities. Machine Learning and Deep Learning Techniques would be utilized for the classification process. Utilizing Social media, sentiment levels can be monitored or analysed. This paper shows a review of the sentiment analysis on Social media data for apprehensiveness or dejection detection utilizing various artificial intelligence techniques. In the survey, it was optically canvassed that social media data which consists of texts,emoticons and emojis were utilized for the sentiment identification utilizing various artificial intelligence techniques. Multi Class Classification with Deep Learning Algorithm shows higher precision value during the sentiment analysis.

Spatio-temporal prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic in US counties: modeling with a deep LSTM neural network

Prediction of complex epidemiological systems such as COVID-19 is challenging on many grounds. Commonly used compartmental models struggle to handle an epidemiological process that evolves rapidly and is spatially heterogeneous. On the other hand, machine learning methods are limited at the beginning of the pandemics due to small data size for training. We propose a deep learning approach to predict future COVID-19 infection cases and deaths 1 to 4 weeks ahead at the fine granularity of US counties. The multi-variate Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network is trained on multiple time series samples at the same time, including a mobility series. Results show that adding mobility as a variable and using multiple samples to train the network improve predictive performance both in terms of bias and of variance of the forecasts. We also show that the predicted results have similar accuracy and spatial patterns with a standard ensemble model used as benchmark. The model is attractive in many respects, including the fine geographic granularity of predictions and great predictive performance several weeks ahead. Furthermore, data requirement and computational intensity are reduced by substituting a single model to multiple models folded in an ensemble model.

Unmasking People’s Opinions behind Mask-Wearing during COVID-19 Pandemic—A Twitter Stance Analysis

Wearing a mask by the general public has been a controversial issue from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic as the public authorities have had mixed messages, either advising people not to wear masks if uninfected, to wear as a protective measure, to wear them only when inside a building/room with insufficient air flow or to wear them in all the public places. To date, the governments have had different policies regarding mask-wearing by the general public depending on the COVID-19 pandemic evolution. In this context, the paper analyzes the general public’s opinion regarding mask-wearing for the one-year period starting from 9 January 2020, when the first tweet regarding mask-wearing in the COVID-19 context has been posted. Classical machine learning and deep learning algorithms have been considered in analyzing the 8,795,633 tweets extracted. A random sample of 29,613 tweets has been extracted and annotated. The tweets containing news and information related to mask-wearing have been included in the neutral category, while the ones containing people’s opinions (for or against) have been marked using a symmetrical approach into in favor and against categories. Based on the analysis, it has been determined that most of the mask tweets are in the area of in favor or neutral, while a smaller percentage of tweets and retweets are in the against category. The evolution of the opinions expressed through tweets can be further monitored for extracting the public perspective on mask-wearing in times of COVID-19.

Public perception of COVID-19 vaccines from the digital footprints left on Twitter: analyzing positive, neutral and negative sentiments of Twitterati

Purpose

Twitter is gaining popularity as a microblogging and social networking service to discuss various social issues. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic and is discussed worldwide. Social media is an instant platform to deliberate various dimensions of COVID-19. The purpose of the study is to explore and analyze the public sentiments related to COVID-19 vaccines across the Twitter messages (positive, neutral, and negative) and the impact tweets make across digital social circles.

Design/methodology/approach

To fetch the vaccine-related posts, a manual examination of randomly selected 500 tweets was carried out to identify the popular hashtags relevant to the vaccine conversation. It was found that the hashtags “covid19vaccine” and “coronavirusvaccine” were the two popular hashtags used to discuss the communications related to COVID-19 vaccines. 23,575 global tweets available in public domain were retrieved through “Twitter Application Programming Interface” (API), using “Orange Software”, an open-source machine learning, data visualization and data mining toolkit. The study was confined to the tweets posted in English language only. The default data cleaning and preprocessing techniques available in the “Orange Software” were applied to the dataset, which include “transformation”, “tokenization” and “filtering”. The “Valence Aware Dictionary for sEntiment Reasoning” (VADER) tool was used for classification of tweets to determine the tweet sentiments (positive, neutral and negative) as well as the degree of sentiments (compound score also known as sentiment score). To assess the influence/impact of tweets account wise (verified and unverified) and sentiment wise (positive, neutral, and negative), the retweets and likes, which offer a sort of reward or acknowledgment of tweets, were used.

Findings

A gradual decline in the number of tweets over the time is observed. Majority (11,205; 47.52%) of tweets express positive sentiments, followed by neutral (7,948; 33.71%) and negative sentiments (4,422; 18.75%), respectively. The study also signifies a substantial difference between the impact of tweets tweeted by verified and unverified users. The tweets related to verified users have a higher impact both in terms of retweets (65.91%) and likes (84.62%) compared to the tweets tweeted by unverified users. Tweets expressing positive sentiments have the highest impact both in terms of likes (mean = 10.48) and retweets (mean = 3.07) compared to those that express neutral or negative sentiments.

Research limitations/implications

The main limitation of the study is that the sentiments of the people expressed over one single social platform, that is, Twitter have been studied which cannot generalize the global public perceptions. There can be a variation in the results when the datasets from other social media platforms will be studied.

Practical implications

The study will help to know the people's sentiments and beliefs toward the COVID-19 vaccines. Sentiments that people hold about the COVID-19 vaccines are studied, which will help health policymakers understand the polarity (positive, negative, and neutral) of the tweets and thus see the public reaction and reflect the types of information people are exposed to about vaccines. The study can aid the health sectors to intensify positive messages and eliminate negative messages for an enhanced vaccination uptake. The research can also help design more operative vaccine-advocating communication by customizing messages using the obtained knowledge from the sentiments and opinions about the vaccines.

Originality/value

The paper focuses on an essential aspect of COVID-19 vaccines and how people express themselves (positively, neutrally and negatively) on Twitter.

Spatial association of mobility and COVID-19 infection rate in the USA: A county-level study using mobile phone location data

INTRODUCTION

Human mobility has been a central issue in the discussion from the beginning of COVID-19. While the body of literature on the relationship of COVID transmission and mobility is large, studies mostly captured a relatively short timeframe. Moreover, spatial non-stationarity has garnered less attention in these explorative models. Therefore, the major concern of this study is to see the relationship of mobility and COVID on a broader temporal scale and after mitigating this methodological gap.

OBJECTIVE

In response to this concern, this study first explores the spatiotemporal pattern of mobility indicators. Secondly, it attempts to understand how mobility is related to COVID infection rate and how this relationship has been changed over time and space after controlling several sociodemographic characteristics, spatial heterogeneity, and policy-related changes during different phases of Coronavirus.

DATA AND METHOD

This study uses GPS-based mobility data for a wider time frame of six months (March 20-August'20) divided into four tiers and carries analysis for all the US counties (N = 3142). Space-time cube is used to generate the spatiotemporal pattern. For the second objective, Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Spatial Error Model (SEM), and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) were used.

RESULT

The spatial-temporal pattern suggests that the trip rate, out-of-county trip rate, and miles/person traveled were mostly plummeted till the first wave reached its peak, and subsequently, all of these mobility matrices started to rise. From spatial models, infection rates were found negatively correlated with miles traveled and out-of-county trips. Highly COVID infected areas mostly had more people working from home, low percentages of aged people and educated people, and high percentages of poor people.

CONCLUSION

This study, with necessary policy implications, provides a comprehensive understanding of the shifting pattern of mobility and COVID. Spatial models outperform OLS with better fits and non-clustered residuals.

Analysis of lockdown perception in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

Containment measures have been applied throughout the world to halt the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, several forms of lockdown have been adopted in different parts of the country, leading to heterogeneous epidemiological, social, and economic effects. Here, we present a spatio-temporal analysis of a Twitter dataset comprising 1.3 million geo-localized Tweets about lockdown, from January to May 2020. Through sentiment analysis, we classified Tweets as expressing positive or negative emotions about lockdown, demonstrating a change in perception during the course of the pandemic modulated by socio-economic factors. A transfer entropy analysis of the time series of Tweets unveiled that the emotions in different parts of the country did not evolve independently. Rather, they were mediated by spatial interactions, which were also related to socio-ecomomic factors and, arguably, to political orientations. This study constitutes a first, necessary step toward isolating the mechanisms underlying the acceptance of public health interventions from highly resolved online datasets.

Public Perceptions of COVID-19 Vaccines: Policy Implications from US Spatiotemporal Sentiment Analytics

There is a compelling and pressing need to better understand the temporal dynamics of public sentiment towards COVID-19 vaccines in the US on a national and state-wise level for facilitating appropriate public policy applications. Our analysis of social media data from early February and late March 2021 shows that, despite the overall strength of positive sentiment and despite the increasing numbers of Americans being fully vaccinated, negative sentiment towards COVID-19 vaccines still persists among segments of people who are hesitant towards the vaccine. In this study, we perform sentiment analytics on vaccine tweets, monitor changes in public sentiment over time, contrast vaccination sentiment scores with actual vaccination data from the US CDC and the Household Pulse Survey (HPS), explore the influence of maturity of Twitter user-accounts and generate geographic mapping of tweet sentiments. We observe that fear sentiment remained unchanged in populous states, whereas trust sentiment declined slightly in these same states. Changes in sentiments were more notable among less populous states in the central sections of the US. Furthermore, we leverage the emotion polarity based Public Sentiment Scenarios (PSS) framework, which was developed for COVID-19 sentiment analytics, to systematically posit implications for public policy processes with the aim of improving the positioning, messaging, and administration of vaccines. These insights are expected to contribute to policies that can expedite the vaccination program and move the nation closer to the cherished herd immunity goal.

Machine Learning on the COVID-19 Pandemic, Human Mobility and Air Quality: A Review

The ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic is touching every facet of human lives (e.g., public health, education, economy, transportation, and the environment). This novel pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions of lockdown and confinement implemented citywide, regionally or nationally are affecting virus transmission, people's travel patterns, and air quality. Many studies have been conducted to predict the diffusion of the COVID-19 disease, assess the impacts of the pandemic on human mobility and on air quality, and assess the impacts of lockdown measures on viral spread with a range of Machine Learning (ML) techniques. This literature review aims to analyze the results from past research to understand the interactions among the COVID-19 pandemic, lockdown measures, human mobility, and air quality. The critical review of prior studies indicates that urban form, people's socioeconomic and physical conditions, social cohesion, and social distancing measures significantly affect human mobility and COVID-19 viral transmission. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many people are inclined to use private transportation for necessary travel to mitigate coronavirus-related health problems. This review study also noticed that COVID-19 related lockdown measures significantly improve air quality by reducing the concentration of air pollutants, which in turn improves the COVID-19 situation by reducing respiratory-related sickness and deaths. It is argued that ML is a powerful, effective, and robust analytic paradigm to handle complex and wicked problems such as a global pandemic. This study also explores the spatio-temporal aspects of lockdown and confinement measures on coronavirus diffusion, human mobility, and air quality. Additionally, we discuss policy implications, which will be helpful for policy makers to take prompt actions to moderate the severity of the pandemic and improve urban environments by adopting data-driven analytic methods.