Assessment of the linkages between ecosystem service provision and land use/land cover change in Fincha watershed, North-Western Ethiopia

Application of parametric survival analysis to women patients with breast cancer at Jimma University Medical Center

Public health systems in both industrialized and undeveloped countries continue to struggle with the worldwide problem of breast cancer. In sub-Saharan African countries, notably Ethiopia, it is the form of cancer that strikes women the most commonly. Despite the extreme difficulties, the causes of mortality in Ethiopia have not yet been identified. In addition, little study has been done in this area. Therefore, the major objective of this analysis was to pinpoint the factors that were most responsible for the decreased life expectancy of breast cancer patients at the University of Jimma Medical Center. 552 women who had been treated for breast cancer at Jimma University Medical Center between October 2018 and December 2022 were included in this study, which used a retrospective cohort study design and five-year follow-up data. The most frequent and widely used test for comparing the probability of survival curves between several categorical independent variables was the log-rank test. Next, semi-parametric methods for multivariable analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model were used. Furthermore, a parametric strategy that includes fully parametric survival models better achieves the goal of the analysis. Among covariate, age of patient (ϕ = 254.06; 95% CI (3.95, 7.13), P-value = 0.000), patient live in urban (ϕ = 0.84; 95% CI (-0.35,-0.00), P-value = 0.047), preexisting comorbidity (ϕ = 2.46; 95% CI (0.39, 1.41), P-value = 0.001), overweight women cancer patient (ϕ = 0.05; 95% CI(-4.41,-1.57), P-value = 0.000, positive Axillary Node status cancer patient (ϕ = 0.04; 95% CI(-4.45,-1.88), P-value = 0.000), both surgery and chemotropic baseline treatment patient (ϕ = 0.53; 95% CI(-1.12,-0.16), P-value = 0.009) significantly affected the survival of women breast cancer. Age of breast cancer patient, patient education level, place of residence, marital status, pre-existing comorbidity, axillary node status, estrogen receptor, tumor size, body mass index at diagnosis, stage of cancer, and baseline treatment were found to have a significant effect on time to survive for women with breast cancer at the University of Jimma Medical Center, Oromia region, Ethiopia. However, the covariate histologic grade, number of positive lymph nodes involved, and type of hormone used were insignificant to the survival of breast cancer patients.

Impact of land use land cover change using remote sensing with integration of socio-economic data on Rural Livelihoods in the Nashe watershed, Ethiopia

Land use/land cover is an important component in understanding the interactions of human activities with the environment and is necessary to recognize the changes in order to monitor and maintain a sustainable environment. The main objectives of this study were to analyze changes in land cover in the Nashe-watershed for the period 2010-2020, analyze household demographic and livelihood characteristics and identify the impact of the construction of the DAM and changes in land cover on the environment. Since the dam of the Nashe watershed was built in 2012, the socioeconomic characteristics of the area were used to interpret the causes of land use and land cover changes, which cause changes in their life and environment. Purposively 156 households were selected who were more than 40 years old from the total households (1222) in three kebele and for land use land cover of 2010, Land sat 7 were used whereas for 2020, land sat 8 was used. The socioeconomic data were analyzed with Excel and integrated with biophysical data. The 2010-2020 ten-year period showed that cultivated land and forest land were reduced from 73% to 62% and 18%-14%, respectively, and swampy areas fully converted to Water Bodies, alternately increasing Water Bodies and grazing land also converted from 43.9% to 54.5% and 0.04%-17.96% respectively. The reason for this change was the construction of dams, human encroachment, and expansion of cultivated land which were bringing LULCC in study area. However, government could not gave these people adequate compensation for their lands, properties that conquered by water. Hence, the Nashe watershed is identified as an area highly affected by land use and land cover change, the livelihoods were suffered by Dam construction, also environmental sustainability is hindering still now. Therefore it is necessary to closely monitor land use/land cover, giving consideration for HHs who affected by Dam, and to maintain a sustainable environmental resource for the future sustainable development is a critical issue in the Ethiopia in general, particularly in the study area.

Land use/land cover dynamics driven changes in woody species diversity and ecosystem services value in tropical rainforest frontier: A 20-year history

Land use/land cover (LULC) change is a prominent problem in tropical forests. However, the fundamental question of how much woody species diversity was lost and ecosystem services value (ESV) changed in response to LULC conversion has rarely been studied. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the impact of LULC change on woody species diversity and ecosystem service value in the last two decades in the tropical rainforest frontier taking the case of Sheka Forest Biosphere Reserve (SFBR), Southwest Ethiopia. Supervised image classification with a maximum likelihood approach was employed and 90 quadrants were laid for the woody species inventory. Diversity indices and descriptive statistics were computed and the non-parametric test (Kruskal-Wallis) was used to test the effect of LULC change on woody species diversity. The benefit transfer method was used to estimate the monetary value of ecosystem services adopting coefficients from empirical studies. The woody species richness, diversity, and evenness varied (X2 = 71.887, p < 0.05) across LULC types. The highest diversity was observed in the forest followed by cropland, coffee plantation, homegarden, and tea plantation. The estimated total ecosystem service value (ESV) was reduced by 21.56% from 309.11 million US$ in 1999 to 242.47 million US$ in 2020. Transition to mono-crop like tea plantations to maximize income not only altered native woody species but also induced the expansion of exotic species and reduced ESV, indicating a detrimental impact of LULC change on ecosystem integrity and stability in the future. Although LULC conversion destruct woody species diversity, cropland, coffee plantation and the homegardens were the refuge for some endemic and conservation priority species. Further, addressing contemporary challenges of LULC conversion through introducing mechanisms such as payment for ecosystem services that increase the economic and livelihood benefits of natural forests to local communities is important. Effective conservation and sustainable use approaches in which such species are systematically integrated into land use practices have to be planned and implemented. This could contribute to strengthening the conservation effectiveness of the SFBR of UNESCO and serve as a showcase for such conservation areas around the globe. The LULC challenges, particularly those emanating from local livelihood needs, could impede our efforts to conserve biodiversity, jeopardize the reliability of future projections, and have an impact on the conservation of threatened ecosystems, if it is not adequately addressed in time.

Assessing impact of land use change on ecosystem service value in Dasi River Basin of China based on an improved evaluation model

The aim of this study was to provide a new method for dynamic and continuous assessment of ecosystem service value (ESV) and reveal the impact of land use change on ESV in Dasi River Basin within Jinan's startup area from replacing old growth drivers with new ones. Based on four remote sensing images from 2002 to 2020, four ecological indicators were extracted, and the ecological environmental quality index (EEQI) was obtained through the approach of principal component analysis (PCA). Then, the traditional ESV evaluation method was modified by using the EEQI, grain yield, the biomass factor of cropland ecosystem, and the consumer price index (CPI). Finally, the impact of land use change on ESV was further analyzed based on the improved evaluation model. The result showed that (1) during 2002-2020, the area of forestland, grassland, and built-up land showed an increasing trend. The area of cropland and bare land showed a decreasing trend, and the water body area showed a slightly decreasing trend. (2) The total ESV_S overall increased by 2.1759 × 10⁷ yuan; the increased ESV_S from air quality regulation, maintain biodiversity, and climate regulation were the main reasons for the increased of total ESV_S, with contribution rates of 53.18%, 12.46%, and 11.29% respectively. (3) The sensitivity of ecosystem services to land use change showed a decreasing trend, and the order of elasticity index of different land use types was cropland > water body > forestland > grassland > bare land. The conversion of cropland and bare land to forestland was the main type of ESVs increase, with contribution rates of 18.35% and 10.13%, respectively. The cropland reclamation and built-up land expansion were the most significant land use changes that lead to the decline of ESV_S, with contribution rates of 20.14% and 19.03% respectively. (4) The ESV showed a significant positive auto-correlation in terms of spatial distribution. The area of high-high region was mainly distributed in water body, forestland, and its surrounding areas. The area of low-low region was mainly distributed in built-up land and wasteland areas where human disturbance is relatively serious. The high-low and low-high regions were affected by landscape transition process and randomly distributed around the low-low and high-high regions, respectively. This study cannot only put forward a new method for the dynamic continuous evaluation of ESV, but also provide a reference for the rational allocation of land resources in the startup area to realize the balanced development of regional environment and economy.

Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes in the Ethiopian Fincha Sub-Basin

The increasing human pressure on African regions is recognizable when looking at Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change maps, generally derived from satellite imagery. Using the Ethiopian Fincha watershed as a case study, the present work focuses on (i) identifying historical LULC change in the period 1989–2019; (ii) estimating LULC in the next thirty years, combining Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with Land Change Modelling (LCM). Landsat 5/8 images were combined with field evidence to map LULC in three reference years (1989, 2004, 2019), while the Multi-Layer Markov Chain (MPL-MC) model of LCM was applied to forecast LULC in 2030, 2040, and 2050. The watershed was classified into six classes: waterbody, grass/swamp, built-up, agriculture; forest; and shrub. The results have shown that, in the past 30 years, the Fincha watershed experienced a reduction in forest and shrubs of about −40% and −13%, respectively, mainly due to ever-increasing agricultural activities, and such a trend is also expected in the future. In fact, for the period 2019–2050, LCM simulated a significant decrease in both forest and shrubs (around −70% and −20%, respectively), in favor of more areas covered by grass (19%) and built-up (20%). It is worth noting that a decrease in natural forests can drive an increase in soil erosion, fostering siltation in the water reservoirs located in the sub-basin. The study pointed out the urgency of taking actions in the sub-basin to counteract such changes, which can eventually lead to a less sustainable environment.

Spatial-Temporal Responses of Ecosystem Services to Land Use Transformation Driven by Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China

Exploring the changes of ecosystem services value caused by land use transformation driven by urbanization is crucial for ensuring the safety of the regional ecological environment and for enhancing the value of ecosystem services. Based on the land use remote sensing data during the rapid urbanization development period of Hubei Province from 1995 to 2015, this study analyzed the characteristics of land use/land cover change and land use transformation. The spatial-temporal response characteristics and evolution of ecosystem services value (ESV) to land use transformation driven by urbanization were measured by equivalent factor method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, hot spot analysis and gravity model. We found that: (1) Driven by urbanization, the most significant feature of land use transformation in Hubei Province was the expansion of the built-up land and the significant reduction of cropland and forest, among which 90% of the new built-up land was converted from cropland and forest. (2) This land use transformation became the main source of ESV losses. Especially, the sharp increase of the built-up land from 2010 to 2015, occupying cropland and forest, resulted in ESV losses of nearly USD 320 million. The service capacity of climate regulation, soil conservation, gas regulation and food production undertaken by cropland and forest decreased. (3) The ecosystem services value in the study area showed spatial distribution characteristics of high in the west and low in the middle and east regions. The center of gravity of ESV shifted from northwest to southeast. Due to the sharp increase of the built-up land from 2010 to 2015, the center of gravity shift rebounded. This study can help policymakers better understand the trade-offs between land use transformation and ecosystem services driven by urbanization.

Hydrological Responses to Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Fincha’a Watershed, Ethiopia

Land use land cover (LULC) changes are highly pronounced in African countries, as they are characterized by an agriculture-based economy and a rapidly growing population. Understanding how land use/cover changes (LULCC) influence watershed hydrology will enable local governments and policymakers to formulate and implement effective and appropriate response strategies to minimize the undesirable effects of future land use/cover change or modification and sustain the local socio-economic situation. The hydrological response of the Ethiopia Fincha’a watershed to LULCC that happened during 25 years was investigated, comparing the situation in three reference years: 1994, 2004, and 2018. The information was derived from Landsat sensors, respectively Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM, and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS. The various LULC classes were derived via ArcGIS using a supervised classification system, and the accuracy assessment was done using confusion matrixes. For all the years investigated, the overall accuracies and the kappa coefficients were higher than 80%, with 2018 as the more accurate year. The analysis of LULCC revealed that forest decreased by 20.0% between the years 1994–2004, and it decreased by 11.8% in the following period 2004–2018. Such decline in areas covered by forest is correlated to an expansion of cultivated land by 16.4% and 10.81%, respectively. After having evaluated the LULCC at the basin scale, the watershed was divided into 18 sub-watersheds, which contained 176 hydrologic response units (HRUs), having a specific LULC. Accounting for such a detailed subdivision of the Fincha’a watershed, the SWAT model was firstly calibrated and validated on past data, and then applied to infer information on the hydrological response of each HRU on LULCC. The modelling results pointed out a general increase of average water flow, both during dry and wet periods, as a consequence of a shift of land coverage from forest and grass towards settlements and build-up areas. The present analysis pointed out the need of accounting for past and future LULCC in modelling the hydrological responses of rivers at the watershed scale.