1
|
Khain E. Spatial spread of epidemic with Allee effect. Phys Rev E 2023; 107:064303. [PMID: 37464683 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.107.064303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2022] [Accepted: 05/19/2023] [Indexed: 07/20/2023]
Abstract
The spatial spread of an epidemic is investigated in the case of a bistable dynamics, where the effective transmission rate depends on the fraction of infected and the state of no epidemic is linearly stable. The front propagation phenomenon is investigated both numerically and theoretically, by an analysis in a four-dimensional phase plane. A good agreement between numerical and theoretical results has been found both for the front profiles and for the speed of invasion. We discovered a novel phenomenon of front stoppage: In some regime of parameters, the front solution ceases to exist, and the propagating pulse of infection decays despite the initial outbreak.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Evgeniy Khain
- Department of Physics, Oakland University, Rochester, Michigan 48309, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Cui P, Zou P, Ju X, Liu Y, Su Y. Research Progress and Improvement Ideas of Anti-Epidemic Resilience in China's Urban Communities. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:15293. [PMID: 36430012 PMCID: PMC9690367 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192215293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2022] [Revised: 11/14/2022] [Accepted: 11/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
In the post-epidemic era, China's urban communities are at the forefront of implementing the whole chain of accurate epidemic prevention and control. However, the uncertainty of COVID-19, the loopholes in community management and people's overly optimistic judgment of the epidemic have led to the frequent rebound of the epidemic and serious consequences. Existing studies have not yet formed a panoramic framework of community anti-epidemic work under the concept of resilience. Therefore, this article first summarizes the current research progress of resilient communities from three perspectives, including ideas and perspectives, theories and frameworks and methods and means, and summarizes the gap of the current research. Then, an innovative idea on the epidemic resilience of urban communities in China is put forward: (1) the evolution mechanism of community anti-epidemic resilience is described through the change law of dynamic networks; (2) the anti-epidemic resilience of urban communities is evaluated or predicted through the measurement criteria; (3) a simulation platform based on Multi-Agent and dynamic Bayesian networks simulates the interactive relationship between "epidemic disturbance-cost constraint--epidemic resilience"; (4) the anti-epidemic strategies are output intelligently to provide community managers with decision-making opinions on community epidemic prevention and control.
Collapse
|
3
|
Waites W, Pearson CAB, Gaskell KM, House T, Pellis L, Johnson M, Gould V, Hunt A, Stone NRH, Kasstan B, Chantler T, Lal S, Roberts CH, Goldblatt D, Marks M, Eggo RM. Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK. Sci Rep 2022; 12:8550. [PMID: 35595824 PMCID: PMC9121858 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-12517-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2021] [Accepted: 05/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Some social settings such as households and workplaces, have been identified as high risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Identifying and quantifying the importance of these settings is critical for designing interventions. A tightly-knit religious community in the UK experienced a very large COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, reaching 64.3% seroprevalence within 10 months, and we surveyed this community both for serological status and individual-level attendance at particular settings. Using these data, and a network model of people and places represented as a stochastic graph rewriting system, we estimated the relative contribution of transmission in households, schools and religious institutions to the epidemic, and the relative risk of infection in each of these settings. All congregate settings were important for transmission, with some such as primary schools and places of worship having a higher share of transmission than others. We found that the model needed a higher general-community transmission rate for women (3.3-fold), and lower susceptibility to infection in children to recreate the observed serological data. The precise share of transmission in each place was related to assumptions about the internal structure of those places. Identification of key settings of transmission can allow public health interventions to be targeted at these locations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- William Waites
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK.
- Department of Computer and Information Sciences, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, UK.
| | - Carl A B Pearson
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
| | - Katherine M Gaskell
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
| | - Thomas House
- School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Lorenzo Pellis
- School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Marina Johnson
- Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health Biomedical Research Centre, University College London, London, UK
| | - Victoria Gould
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
| | - Adam Hunt
- Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health Biomedical Research Centre, University College London, London, UK
| | - Neil R H Stone
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
- Hospital for Tropical Diseases, University College London Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Ben Kasstan
- Centre for Health, Law and Society, University of Bristol Law School, Bristol, UK
- Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Tracey Chantler
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
| | - Sham Lal
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
| | - Chrissy H Roberts
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
| | - David Goldblatt
- Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health Biomedical Research Centre, University College London, London, UK
| | - Michael Marks
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
- Hospital for Tropical Diseases, University College London Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Rosalind M Eggo
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Guo AH, Diaz-Caturan MV, Reis C, Carritte D, Smith BMT, Wester YO, Hall SL. Practical Strategies and Tools for Use by Occupational and Environmental Medicine Departments During COVID-19 Pandemic Surges. J Occup Environ Med 2022; 64:10-18. [PMID: 34538840 PMCID: PMC8715935 DOI: 10.1097/jom.0000000000002390] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Occupational and environmental medicine (OEM) departments in healthcare institutions can be quickly overwhelmed when COVID-19 infection rates rapidly and simultaneously increase in the workforce and the patients served. Our goal is to present a detailed toolkit of practical approaches for use by front-line OEM specialists to address workforce management tasks during pandemic surges. METHODS Specific focus is on tasks related to employee symptom triage, exposure risk assessment, workplace contact tracing, and work restrictions. RESULTS Tools include strategies used by customer call centers, two decision support algorithms (exposure due to cohabitation or non-cohabitation), a color-coded employee case tracking tool, a contact tracing protocol, and documentation templates that serve as memory aids for encounters. CONCLUSIONS These tools are created with commonly used software. Implementation is feasible in most front-line OEM settings, including those with limited resources.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Andrew H Guo
- Veterans Affairs Loma Linda Healthcare System, Loma Linda, California (Dr Guo, Diaz-Caturan, Dr Reis, Dr Carritte, Dr Smith, Dr Wester, Dr Hall), Loma Linda University, School of Medicine, Loma Linda, California (Dr Guo, Dr Reis, Dr Carritte, Dr Hall), Linda University, School of Public Health Loma Linda, California (Dr Reis, Dr Hall), Southern California University of Health Sciences (Dr Smith), Loma Linda University Health (Dr Wester)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
5
|
Sevimli S, Sevimli BS. Challenges and Ethical Issues Related to COVID-19 Contact Tracing Teams in Turkey. J Multidiscip Healthc 2021; 14:3151-3159. [PMID: 34803383 PMCID: PMC8594897 DOI: 10.2147/jmdh.s327302] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2021] [Accepted: 10/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective The purpose of this study was to determine and evaluate the challenges and ethical issues faced by COVID-19 filiation (contact tracing) teams and report the experiences of team members. Methods This is a descriptive study conducted to evaluate the performance of contact tracing field teams established by the Ministry of Health to identify, refer, and follow-up persons who tested positive for COVID-19 and their contacts. Reports were collected from various Turkish medical associations, the Turkish Ministry of Health, online news sources, and online interviews published between 11 March 2020 and 18 April 2021. Results A total of 32 reports published by the Turkish Ministry of Health, various medical associations in Turkey, and the Turkish Academy of Science, together with a number of online media reports on issues involving contact tracing teams, were reviewed. While the activities of the teams were overall found to be of benefit during the pandemic, numerous factors negatively impacting their success were identified. These factors included insufficient social support, wherein the fundamental bioethical values of solidarity, responsibility, respect, and trust were not adopted on a societal level, as well as issues involving the teams themselves, such as lack of time to properly conduct their work, inadequate communication skills and/or personal issues. Conclusion Studies conducted by the contact tracing teams were of vital importance in managing the pandemic. The teams were especially effective in reaching both educated and uneducated segments of the society, in diagnosing cases, and in informing the public regarding the pandemic. Evaluating the experiences of the contact tracing teams deployed in Turkey is of vital importance to ensure better preparation for any future pandemics.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sukran Sevimli
- Department of Medical History and Ethics, Van Yuzuncu Yıl University, Medical School, Van, Turkey.,Department of Periodontology, Hacettepe University Faculty of Dentistry, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Barış Sarp Sevimli
- Department of Periodontology, Hacettepe University Faculty of Dentistry, Ankara, Turkey
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Sahoo DP, Singh AK, Sahu DP, Pradhan SK, Patro BK, Batmanabane G, Mishra B, Behera B, Das A, Dora GS, Anand L, Azhar SM, Nair J, Panigrahi S, Akshaya R, Sahoo BK, Sahu S, Sahoo S. Hospital-Based Contact Tracing of Patients With COVID-19 and Health Care Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Eastern India: Cross-sectional Study. JMIR Form Res 2021; 5:e28519. [PMID: 34596569 PMCID: PMC8534486 DOI: 10.2196/28519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2021] [Revised: 08/15/2021] [Accepted: 09/18/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The contact tracing and subsequent quarantining of health care workers (HCWs) are essential to minimizing the further transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection and mitigating the shortage of HCWs during the COVID-19 pandemic situation. Objective This study aimed to assess the yield of contact tracing for COVID-19 cases and the risk stratification of HCWs who are exposed to these cases. Methods This was an analysis of routine data that were collected for the contact tracing of COVID-19 cases at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, in Odisha, India. Data from March 19 to August 31, 2020, were considered for this study. COVID-19 cases were admitted patients, outpatients, or HCWs in the hospital. HCWs who were exposed to COVID-19 cases were categorized, per the risk stratification guidelines, as high-risk contacts or low-risk contacts Results During contact tracing, 3411 HCWs were identified as those who were exposed to 360 COVID-19 cases. Of these 360 cases, 269 (74.7%) were either admitted patients or outpatients, and 91 (25.3%) were HCWs. After the risk stratification of the 3411 HCWs, 890 (26.1%) were categorized as high-risk contacts, and 2521 (73.9%) were categorized as low-risk contacts. The COVID-19 test positivity rates of high-risk contacts and low-risk contacts were 3.8% (34/890) and 1.9% (48/2521), respectively. The average number of high-risk contacts was significantly higher when the COVID-19 case was an admitted patient (number of contacts: mean 6.6) rather than when the COVID-19 case was an HCW (number of contacts: mean 4.0) or outpatient (number of contacts: mean 0.2; P=.009). Similarly, the average number of high-risk contacts was higher when the COVID-19 case was admitted in a non–COVID-19 area (number of contacts: mean 15.8) rather than when such cases were admitted in a COVID-19 area (number of contacts: mean 0.27; P<.001). There was a significant decline in the mean number of high-risk contacts over the study period (P=.003). Conclusions Contact tracing and risk stratification were effective and helped to reduce the number of HCWs requiring quarantine. There was also a decline in the number of high-risk contacts during the study period. This indicates the role of the implementation of hospital-based, COVID-19–related infection control strategies. The contact tracing and risk stratification approaches that were designed in this study can also be implemented in other health care settings.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Durgesh Prasad Sahoo
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Arvind Kumar Singh
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Dinesh Prasad Sahu
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Somen Kumar Pradhan
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Binod Kumar Patro
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | | | - Baijayantimala Mishra
- Department of Microbiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Bijayini Behera
- Department of Microbiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Ambarish Das
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - G Susmita Dora
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - L Anand
- College of Nursing, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - S M Azhar
- College of Nursing, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Jyolsna Nair
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Sasmita Panigrahi
- College of Nursing, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - R Akshaya
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Bimal Kumar Sahoo
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Subhakanta Sahu
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Suchismita Sahoo
- College of Nursing, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Hong P, Herigon JC, Uptegraft C, Samuel B, Brown DL, Bickel J, Hron JD. Use of clinical data to augment healthcare worker contact tracing during the COVID-19 pandemic. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2021; 29:142-148. [PMID: 34623426 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocab231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2021] [Revised: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 10/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This work examined the secondary use of clinical data from the electronic health record (EHR) for screening our healthcare worker (HCW) population for potential exposures to patients with coronavirus disease 2019. MATERIALS AND METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study at a free-standing, quaternary care pediatric hospital comparing first-degree, patient-HCW pairs identified by the hospital's COVID-19 contact tracing team (CTT) to those identified using EHR clinical event data (EHR Report). The primary outcome was the number of patient-HCW pairs detected by each process. RESULTS Among 233 patients with COVID-19, our EHR Report identified 4,116 patient-HCW pairs, including 2,365 (30.0%) of the 7,890 pairs detected by the CTT. The EHR Report also revealed 1,751 pairs not identified by the CTT. The highest number of patient-HCW pairs per patient was detected in the inpatient care venue. Nurses comprised the most frequently identified HCW role overall. CONCLUSION Automated methods to screen HCWs for potential exposure to patients with COVID-19 using clinical event data from the EHR are likely to improve epidemiologic surveillance by contact tracing programs and represent a viable and readily available strategy which should be considered by other institutions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Peter Hong
- Division of General Pediatrics, Department of Pediatrics, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Joshua C Herigon
- Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Children's Mercy Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri, USA.,Department of Pediatrics, University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Medicine, USA, Kansas City, Missouri
| | - Colby Uptegraft
- Health Informatics Branch, Defense Health Agency, Falls Church, Virginia, USA
| | - Bassem Samuel
- Information Services Department, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - D Levin Brown
- Information Services Department, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Jonathan Bickel
- Division of General Pediatrics, Department of Pediatrics, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Information Services Department, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Jonathan D Hron
- Division of General Pediatrics, Department of Pediatrics, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| |
Collapse
|