Estimates for Lyme borreliosis infections based on models using sentinel canine and human seroprevalence data

Lyme borreliosis diagnosis: state of the art of improvements and innovations

With almost 700 000 estimated cases each year in the United States and Europe, Lyme borreliosis (LB), also called Lyme disease, is the most common tick-borne illness in the world. Transmitted by ticks of the genus Ixodes and caused by bacteria Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, LB occurs with various symptoms, such as erythema migrans, which is characteristic, whereas others involve blurred clinical features such as fatigue, headaches, arthralgia, and myalgia. The diagnosis of Lyme borreliosis, based on a standard two-tiered serology, is the subject of many debates and controversies, since it relies on an indirect approach which suffers from a low sensitivity depending on the stage of the disease. Above all, early detection of the disease raises some issues. Inappropriate diagnosis of Lyme borreliosis leads to therapeutic wandering, inducing potential chronic infection with a strong antibody response that fails to clear the infection. Early and proper detection of Lyme disease is essential to propose an adequate treatment to patients and avoid the persistence of the pathogen. This review presents the available tests, with an emphasis on the improvements of the current diagnosis, the innovative methods and ideas which, ultimately, will allow more precise detection of LB.

Predictive Model of Lyme Disease Epidemic Process Using Machine Learning Approach

Lyme disease is the most prevalent tick-borne disease in Eastern Europe. This study focuses on the development of a machine learning model based on a neural network for predicting the dynamics of the Lyme disease epidemic process. A retrospective analysis of the Lyme disease cases reported in the Kharkiv region, East Ukraine, between 2010 and 2017 was performed. To develop the neural network model of the Lyme disease epidemic process, a multilayered neural network was used, and the backpropagation algorithm or the generalized delta rule was used for its learning. The adequacy of the constructed forecast was tested on real statistical data on the incidence of Lyme disease. The learning of the model took 22.14 s, and the mean absolute percentage error is 3.79%. A software package for prediction of the Lyme disease incidence on the basis of machine learning has been developed. Results of the simulation have shown an unstable epidemiological situation of Lyme disease, which requires preventive measures at both the population level and individual protection. Forecasting is of particular importance in the conditions of hostilities that are currently taking place in Ukraine, including endemic territories.