Complete blood cell count risk score as a predictor of in-hospital mortality and morbidity among patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass

Intermittent fasting and changes in clinical risk scores: Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial

Background

Intermittent fasting may increase longevity and lower cardiometabolic risk. This study evaluated whether fasting modifies clinical risk scores for mortality [i.e., Intermountain Mortality Risk Score (IMRS)] or chronic diseases [e.g., Pooled Cohort Risk Equations (PCRE), Intermountain Chronic Disease score (ICHRON)].

Methods and results

Subjects (N = 71) completing the WONDERFUL trial were aged 21-70 years, had ≥1 metabolic syndrome criteria, elevated cholesterol, and no anti-diabetes medications, statins, or chronic diseases. The intermittent fasting arm underwent 24-h water-only fasting twice-per-week for 4 weeks and once-per-week for 22 weeks (26 weeks total). Analyses examined the IMRS change score at 26 weeks vs. baseline between intermittent fasting (n = 38) and ad libitum controls (n = 33), and change scores for PCRE, ICHRON, HOMA-IR, and a metabolic syndrome score (MSS). Age averaged 49 years; 65% were female. Intermittent fasting increased IMRS (0.78 ± 2.14 vs. controls: -0.61 ± 2.56; p = 0.010) but interacted with baseline IMRS (p-interaction = 0.010) to reduce HOMA-IR (but not MSS) more in subjects with higher baseline IMRS (median HOMA-IR change: fasters, -0.95; controls, +0.05) vs. lower baseline IMRS (-0.29 vs. -0.32, respectively). Intermittent fasting reduced ICHRON (-0.92 ± 2.96 vs. 0.58 ± 3.07; p = 0.035) and tended to reduce PCRE (-0.20 ± 0.22 vs. -0.14 ± 0.21; p = 0.054).

Conclusions

Intermittent fasting increased 1-year IMRS mortality risk, but decreased 10-year chronic disease risk (PCRE and ICHRON). It also reduced HOMA-IR more in subjects with higher baseline IMRS. Increased IMRS suggests fasting may elevate short-term mortality risk as a central trigger for myriad physiological responses that elicit long-term health improvements. Increased IMRS may also reveal short-term fasting-induced safety concerns.

Association of the Intermountain Risk Score with major adverse health events in patients positive for COVID-19: an observational evaluation of a US cohort

OBJECTIVES

The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS), composed using published sex-specific weightings of parameters in the complete blood count (CBC) and basic metabolic profile (BMP), is a validated predictor of mortality. We hypothesised that IMRS calculated from prepandemic CBC and BMP predicts COVID-19 outcomes and that IMRS using laboratory results tested at COVID-19 diagnosis is also predictive.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING

Primary, secondary, urgent and emergent care, and drive-through testing locations across Utah and in sections of adjacent US states. Viral RNA testing for SARS-CoV-2 was conducted from 3 March to 2 November 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≥18 years were evaluated if they had CBC and BMP measured in 2019 and tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was a composite of hospitalisation or mortality, with secondary outcomes being hospitalisation and mortality separately.

RESULTS

Among 3883 patients, 8.2% were hospitalised and 1.6% died. Subjects with low, mild, moderate and high-risk IMRS had the composite endpoint in 3.5% (52/1502), 8.6% (108/1256), 15.5% (152/979) and 28.1% (41/146) of patients, respectively. Compared with low-risk, subjects in mild-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups had HR=2.33 (95% CI 1.67 to 3.24), HR=4.01 (95% CI 2.93 to 5.50) and HR=8.34 (95% CI 5.54 to 12.57), respectively. Subjects aged <60 years had HR=3.06 (95% CI 2.01 to 4.65) and HR=7.38 (95% CI 3.14 to 17.34) for moderate and high risks versus low risk, respectively; those ≥60 years had HR=1.95 (95% CI 0.99 to 3.86) and HR=3.40 (95% CI 1.63 to 7.07). In multivariable analyses, IMRS was independently predictive and was shown to capture substantial risk variation of comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

IMRS, a simple risk score using very basic laboratory results, predicted COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality. This included important abilities to identify risk in younger adults with few diagnosed comorbidities and to predict risk prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The Summit Score Stratifies Mortality and Morbidity in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Introduction

Tobacco use and other cardiovascular risk factors often accompany chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study derived and validated the Summit Score to predict mortality in people with COPD and cardiovascular risks.

Methods

SUMMIT trial subjects (N=16,485) ages 40–80 years with COPD were randomly assigned 50%/50% to derivation (N=8181) and internal validation (N=8304). Three external COPD validations from Intermountain Healthcare included outpatients with cardiovascular risks (N=9251), outpatients without cardiovascular risks (N=8551), and inpatients (N=26,170). Cox regression evaluated 40 predictors of all-cause mortality. SUMMIT treatments including combined fluticasone furoate (FF) 100μg/vilanterol 25μg (VI) were not included in the score.

Results

Mortality predictors were FEV₁, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, age, smoking pack-years, prior COPD hospitalizations, myocardial infarction, heart failure, diabetes, anti-thrombotics, anti-arrhythmics, and xanthines. Combined in the Summit Score (derivation: c=0.668), quartile 4 vs 1 had HR=4.43 in SUMMIT validation (p<0.001, 95% CI=3.27, 6.01, c=0.662) and HR=8.15 in Intermountain cardiovascular risk COPD outpatients (p<0.001, 95% CI=5.86, 11.34, c=0.736), and strongly predicted mortality in the other Intermountain COPD populations. Among all SUMMIT subjects with scores 14–19, FF 100μg/VI 25μg vs placebo had HR=0.76 (p=0.0158, 95% CI=0.61, 0.95), but FF 100μg/VI 25μg was not different from placebo for scores <14 or >19.

Conclusion

In this post hoc analysis of SUMMIT trial data, the Summit Score was derived and validated in multiple Intermountain COPD populations. The score was used to identify a subpopulation in which mortality risk was lower for FF 100μg/VI 25μg treatment.

Trial Registration

The SUMMIT trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as number NCT01313676.

Comparative evaluation of the clinical laboratory-based Intermountain risk score with the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices for mortality prediction

Background

The Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices are mortality predictors often used in clinical, administrative, and research applications. The Intermountain Mortality Risk Scores (IMRS) are validated mortality predictors that use all factors from the complete blood count and basic metabolic profile. How IMRS, Charlson, and Elixhauser relate to each other is unknown.

Methods

All inpatient admissions except obstetric patients at Intermountain Healthcare’s 21 adult care hospitals from 2010–2014 (N = 197,680) were examined in a observational cohort study. The most recent admission was a patient’s index encounter. Follow-up to 2018 used hospital death records, Utah death certificates, and the Social Security death master file. Three Charlson versions, 8 Elixhauser versions, and 3 IMRS formulations were evaluated in Cox regression and the one of each that was most predictive was used in dual risk score mortality analyses (in-hospital, 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year mortality).

Results

Indices with the strongest mortality associations and selected for dual score study were the age-adjusted Charlson, the van Walraven version of the acute Elixhauser, and the 1-year IMRS. For in-hospital mortality, Charlson (c = 0.719; HR = 4.75, 95% CI = 4.45, 5.07), Elixhauser (c = 0.783; HR = 5.79, CI = 5.41, 6.19), and IMRS (c = 0.821; HR = 17.95, CI = 15.90, 20.26) were significant predictors (p<0.001) in univariate analyses. Dual score analysis of Charlson (HR = 1.79, CI = 1.66, 1.92) with IMRS (HR = 13.10, CI = 11.53, 14.87) and of Elixhauser (HR = 3.00, CI = 2.80, 3.21) with IMRS (HR = 11.42, CI = 10.09, 12.92) found significance for both scores in each model. Results were similar for 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year mortality.

Conclusions

IMRS provided the strongest ability to predict mortality, adding to and attenuating the predictive ability of the Charlson and Elixhauser indices whose mortality associations remained statistically significant. IMRS uses common, standardized, objective laboratory data and should be further evaluated for integration into mortality risk evaluations.

Risk score-guided multidisciplinary team-based Care for Heart Failure Inpatients is associated with lower 30-day readmission and lower 30-day mortality

OBJECTIVE

Using augmented intelligence clinical decision tools and a risk score-guided multidisciplinary team-based care process (MTCP), this study evaluated the MTCP for heart failure (HF) patients' 30-day readmission and 30-day mortality across 20 Intermountain Healthcare hospitals.

BACKGROUND

HF inpatient care and 30-day post-discharge management require quality improvement to impact patient health, optimize utilization, and avoid readmissions.

METHODS

HF inpatients (N = 6182) were studied from January 2013 to November 2016. In February 2014, patients began receiving care via the MTCP based on a phased implementation in which the 8 largest Intermountain hospitals (accounting for 89.8% of HF inpatients) were crossed over sequentially in a stepped manner from control to MTCP over 2.5 years. After implementation, patient risk scores were calculated within 24 hours of admission and delivered electronically to clinicians. High-risk patients received MTCP care (n = 1221), while lower-risk patients received standard HF care (n = 1220). Controls had their readmission and mortality scores calculated retrospectively (high risk: n = 1791; lower risk: n = 1950).

RESULTS

High-risk MTCP recipients had 21% lower 30-day readmission compared to high-risk controls (adjusted P = .013, HR = 0.79, CI = 0.66, 0.95) and 52% lower 30-day mortality (adjusted P < .001, HR = 0.48, CI = 0.33, 0.69). Lower-risk patients did not experience increased readmission (adjusted HR = 0.88, P = .19) or mortality (adjusted HR = 0.88, P = .61). Some utilization was higher, such as prescription of home health, for MTCP recipients, with no changes in length of stay or overall costs.

CONCLUSIONS

A risk score-guided MTCP was associated with lower 30-day readmission and 30-day mortality in high-risk HF inpatients. Further evaluation of this clinical management approach is required.

Clinically feasible stratification of 1-year to 3-year post-myocardial infarction risk

Objective

Post-myocardial infarction (MI) care is crucial to preventing recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), but can be complicated to personalise. A tool is needed that effectively stratifies risk of cardiovascular (CV) events 1–3 years after MI but is also clinically usable.

Methods

Patients surviving ≥1 year after an index MI with ≥1 risk factor for recurrent MI (ie, age ≥65 years, prior MI, multivessel coronary disease, diabetes, glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m²) were studied. Cox regression derived sex-specific Intermountain Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (IMACE) risk scores for the composite of 1-year to 3-year MACE (CV death, MI or stroke). Derivation was performed in 70% of subjects (n=1342 women; 3047 men), with validation in the other 30% (n=576 women; 1290 men). Secondary validations were also performed.

Results

In women, predictors of CV events were glucose, creatinine, haemoglobin, platelet count, red cell distribution width (RDW), age and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP); among men, they were potassium, glucose, blood urea nitrogen, haematocrit, white blood cell count, RDW, mean platelet volume, age and BNP. In the primary validation, in women, IMACE ranged from 0 to 11 (maximum possible: 12) and had HR=1.44 per +1 score (95% CI 1.29 to 1.61; P<0.001); men had IMACE range 0–14 (maximum: 16) and HR=1.29 per +1 score (95% CI 1.20 to 1.38; P<0.001). IMACE ≥5 in women (≥6 in men) showed strikingly higher MACE risk.

Conclusions

Sex-specific risk scores strongly stratified 1-year to 3-year post-MI MACE risk. IMACE is an inexpensive, dynamic, electronically delivered tool for evaluating and better managing post-MI patient care.