Lifetime competing risks between coronary heart disease mortality and other causes of death during 50 years of follow-up

Cardiovascular Risk Factors Predicting Cardiovascular and Cancer Deaths in a Middle-Aged Population Followed-Up for 61 Years until Extinction

BACKGROUND AND AIM

To study the relationships of cardiovascular risk factors with cancer and cardiovascular mortality in a cohort of middle-aged men followed-up for 61 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A rural cohort of 1611 cancer- and cardiovascular disease-free men aged 40-59 years was examined in 1960 within the Italian Section of the Seven Countries Study, and 28 risk factors measured at baseline were used to predict cancer (n = 459) and cardiovascular deaths (n = 678) that occurred during 61 years of follow-up until the extinction of the cohort with Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

A model with 28 risk factors and cancer deaths as the end-point produced eight statistically significant coefficients for age, smoking habits, mother early death, corneal arcus, xanthelasma and diabetes directly related to events, and arm circumference and healthy diet inversely related. In the corresponding models for major cardiovascular diseases and their subgroups, only the coefficients of age and smoking habits were significant among those found for cancer deaths, to which healthy diet can be added if considering coronary heart disease alone. Following a competing risks analysis by the Fine-Gray method, risk factors significantly common to both conditions were only age, smoking, and xanthelasma.

CONCLUSIONS

A sizeable number of traditional cardiovascular risk factors were not predictors of cancer death in a middle-aged male cohort followed-up until extinction.

Competing Risks of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality versus Other Causes of Death in 10 Cohorts of Middle-Aged Men of the Seven Countries Study Followed for 60 Years to Extinction

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether competing risks help explain why regions with initially high serum cholesterol have higher mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and lower mortality from stroke and other major heart diseases, while the reverse is found for those with initially lower serum cholesterol.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Ten cohorts of men (N = 9063) initially aged 40-59 in six countries were examined and followed for fatal outcomes for 60 years. Major cardiovascular disease (CVD) groups were CHD, stroke, and other Heart Diseases of Uncertain Etiology (HDUE), or the combination of stroke and HDUE (STHD), along with all other causes of death. Fine-Gray competing risk analysis was applied with CHD versus all other causes of death or STHD (direct mode) and all other causes of death or STHD versus CHD (inverse mode), and the effects of 19 covariates (of which 3 references) on the cause-specific hazard of the outcomes were assessed, thus investigating potential etiologic roles. A systematic comparison with results obtained by running the Cox model in direct and inverse modes with the same end-point results was also performed and illustrated graphically.

RESULTS

CHD mortality is bound to different risk factor relationships when compared with all other causes of death and with STHD. The role of serum cholesterol is crucial since, in both comparisons, by Fine-Gray, its coefficients are positive and significant for CHD and negative and significant for all other causes of death and STHD. Risk factor capabilities in specific outcome types of the CVD domain (CHD versus STHD) are different depending on the outcome types considered. Risk factor coefficients are smaller in Fine-Gray modelling and larger in the Cox model. Fine-Gray detects different risk factors whose coefficients may have opposite algebraic signs.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report whereby a large group of risk factors are investigated in connection with life-long CVD outcomes by Fine-Gray competing risk analysis, and a systematic comparison is performed with results obtained by Cox models in both direct and inverse modes. Subtypes of CVD mortality should be summed with full awareness that some risk factors vary by pathology, and they should at least be disentangled into CHD and STHD.

What was the impact of tobacco taxes on smoking prevalence and coronary heart disease mortality in the United States -2005-2016, and did it vary by race and gender?

Tobacco taxes have reduced smoking and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, yet few studies have examined heterogeneity of these associations by race and gender. We constructed a yearly panel (2005-2016) that included age-adjusted cigarette smoking prevalence and CHD mortality rates across all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiological Research. We examined associations between changes in total cigarette excise taxes (i.e., federal and state) and changes in smoking prevalence and CHD mortality, using linear regression models with state and year fixed effects. Each dollar of tobacco tax was associated with a reduction in age-adjusted smoking prevalence 1 year later of -0.4 [95% CIs: -0.6, -0.2] percentage points; and a relative reduction in the rate of CHD mortality 2 years later of -2.0% [95% CIs: -3.7%, -0.3%], or -5 deaths/100,000 in absolute terms. Associations between tobacco taxes and smoking prevalence were statistically significantly different by race and gender and were strongest among Black non-Hispanic women (-1.2 [95% CIs: -1.6, -0.8] percentage points). Associations between tobacco taxes and CHD mortality were not statistically significantly different by race and gender, but point estimates for percent changes were highest among Black non-Hispanic men (-2.9%) and Black non-Hispanic women (-3.5%) compared to White non-Hispanic men (-1.8%) and White non-Hispanic women (-1.5%). These findings suggest that tobacco taxation is an effective intervention for reducing smoking prevalence and CHD mortality among White and Black non-Hispanic populations in the United States.

Cardiovascular Mortality in 10 Cohorts of Middle-Aged Men Followed-Up 60 Years until Extinction: The Seven Countries Study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate mortalities from three major groups of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in a pooled cohort and followed up until extinction.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Ten cohorts of men (N = 9063) initially aged 40-59, in six countries, were examined and followed-up for 60 years. The major CVD groups were coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular diseases (STROKE) and other heart diseases of uncertain etiology (HDUE).

RESULTS

Death rates from CHD were higher in countries with high serum cholesterol levels (USA, Finland and The Netherlands) and lower in countries with low cholesterol levels (Italy, Greece and Japan), but the opposite was observed for STROKE and HDUE, which became the most common CVD mortalities in all countries during the last 20 years of follow-up. Systolic blood pressure and smoking habits were, at an individual level, the common risk factors for the three groups of CVD conditions, while serum cholesterol level was the most common risk factor only for CHD. Overall, death rates for the pooled CVDs were 18% higher in North American and Northern European countries, while CHD rates were 57% higher in the same countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in lifelong CVD mortalities across different countries were smaller than expected due to the different rates of the three groups of CVD, and the indirect determinant of this seemed to be baseline serum cholesterol levels.

Heart Diseases of Uncertain Etiology: A New Definition of Heart Failure for Epidemiological Studies

It has been a long time since, in the spectrum of ischemic (IHD) or coronary (CHD) heart diseases, a differentiation was performed between the forms presenting with and those without pain [...].

Cardiovascular mortality in Northern and Southern European cohorts of the Seven Countries Study at 60-year follow-up

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to describe and interpret differences in major cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality during 60 years between Northern European and Southern European cohorts of the Seven Countries Study of Cardiovascular Diseases.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Northern Europe included two cohorts from Finland and one from the Netherlands, and Southern Europe included two cohorts from Italy and two from Greece, for a total of 2360 and 2792 CVD-free men, respectively, at entry examination. Coronary heart disease (CHD), STROKE and other Heart Diseases of Uncertain Etiology (HDUE) deaths were the outcomes and Cox models were solved separately based on 12 risk factors.

RESULTS

In 60 years, overall death rates were 99.8% in both Northern and Southern Europe and the pooled CVD rates were 46.9% (significantly higher) and 42.2%, respectively: CHD mortality was higher in Northern Europe, whereas STROKE and HDUE mortality were higher in Southern Europe. Significant Cox coefficients for both areas (but not significantly different between areas) were age, smoking habits, SBP and serum cholesterol for CHD, and only age and SBP did so for STROKE and HDUE. Age at death was lower for CHD, intermediate for STROKE and higher for HDUE in both areas.

CONCLUSION

The advantage for Southern Europe was small in terms of overall CVD death rates, but definitely larger in terms of expectancy of life due to the differences in age at death in the three types of CVD mortality. Mean entry levels of serum cholesterol, 50 mg/dl higher in Northern Europe than in Southern Europe are a major culprit of these outcomes.

Lifestyle behaviours predicting major cardiovascular diseases mortality in a practically extinct cohort of middle-aged men followed-up for 61 years

To study lifetime relationships of three major lifestyle behaviours with cardiovascular mortality in a cohort of middle-aged men that reached practical extinction. In the Italian Areas of the Seven Countries Study of Cardiovascular Diseases (SCS), 1712 men were enrolled and examined in 1960, and behavioural habits were measured: smoking habits, physical activity and diet each divided into three classes. Follow-up for mortality was extended for 61 years. Three groups of major cardiovascular diseases (CVD) were used for analysis, coronary heart disease (CHD), STROKE and other Heart Diseases of Uncertain Aetiology (HDUE). Kaplan-Meier curves, death rates in classes of behaviours and Cox proportional hazard models were computed, the last ones adjusted for other major risk factors.In 61 years of follow-up, 1708 men died and 727 were cases of CVD as defined above. Clear separation of classes in Kaplan-Meier survival curves were seen only for physical activity and diet in CHD, and physical activity for STROKE. Cox proportional hazard ratios (HR, adjusted for age, blood pressure and serum cholesterol) showed the significant protective effect on CHD of Mediterranean diet (HR = 0.72), vigorous physical activity (0.55), never smoking (0.73); on STROKE of vigorous physical activity (0.67); on HDUE of never smoking (0.57). Combination of three healthy versus three unhealthy behaviours was associated for CHD to a lower mortality of 39%. This comparison was not coherent for STROKE and HDUE.Lifetime healthy behaviours are clearly beneficial versus CHD mortality but not necessarily for mortality from HDUE and STROKE that probably represent different morbid conditions.

Nomogram to predict cause-specific mortality of patients with rectal adenocarcinoma undergoing surgery: a competing risk analysis

BACKGROUND

Rectal adenocarcinoma is one of major public health problems, severely threatening people's health and life. Cox proportional hazard models have been applied in previous studies widely to analyze survival data. However, such models ignore competing risks and treat them as censored, resulting in excessive statistical errors. Therefore, a competing-risk model was applied with the aim of decreasing risk of bias and thereby obtaining more-accurate results and establishing a competing-risk nomogram for better guiding clinical practice.

METHODS

A total of 22,879 rectal adenocarcinoma cases who underwent primary-site surgical resection were collected from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database. Death due to rectal adenocarcinoma (DRA) and death due to other causes (DOC) were two competing endpoint events in the competing-risk regression analysis. The cumulative incidence function for DRA and DOC at each time point was calculated. Gray's test was applied in the univariate analysis and Gray's proportional subdistribution hazard model was adopted in the multivariable analysis to recognize significant differences among groups and obtain significant factors that could affect patients' prognosis. Next, A competing-risk nomogram was established predicting the cause-specific outcome of rectal adenocarcinoma cases. Finally, we plotted calibration curve and calculated concordance indexes (c-index) to evaluate the model performance.

RESULTS

22,879 patients were included finally. The results showed that age, race, marital status, chemotherapy, AJCC stage, tumor size, and number of metastasis lymph nodes were significant prognostic factors for postoperative rectal adenocarcinoma patients. We further successfully constructed a competing-risk nomogram to predict the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year cause-specific mortality of rectal adenocarcinoma patients. The calibration curve and C-index indicated that the competing-risk nomogram model had satisfactory prognostic ability.

CONCLUSION

Competing-risk analysis could help us obtain more-accurate results for rectal adenocarcinoma patients who had undergone surgery, which could definitely help clinicians obtain accurate prediction of the prognosis of patients and make better clinical decisions.

Effect of Cytochrome P450 Family 2 Subfamily R Member 1 Variants on the Predisposition of Coronary Heart Disease in the Chinese Han Population

Propose: Cytochrome P450 family 2 subfamily R member 1 (CYP2R1) variations can affect the activity of 25-hydroxylase, resulting in the deficiency of 25(OH)D, which leads to an increased incidence and mortality of coronary heart disease (CHD). The purpose is to assess the influence of CYP2R1 variants on CHD risk among the Chinese Han population.

Methods: A total of 508 CHD patients and 510 healthy controls were enrolled. The MassARRAY platform completed genotyping of CYP2R1 variants. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using logistic regression analysis.

Results: Rs6486205 (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.05–1.50, p = 0.014), rs10741657 (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.08–1.54, p = 0.005), and rs2060793 (OR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.06–1.51, p = 0.009) were associated with the increased susceptibility to CHD in the whole subjects. Interestingly, the relationships between these variants and CHD risk were observed in the subjects with age >60 years, males or non-smoker. Additionally, the haplotypes A_rs10741657A_rs2060793 and G_rs10741657G_rs2060793 had the higher risk of CHD, and the combination (rs6486205 and rs10741657) was the best multi-locus model.

Conclusion: Our study suggested the contribution of CYP2R1 polymorphisms to the increased CHD predisposition in the Chinese Han population. Furthermore, the risk association was related to confounding factors for CHD, including age, sex, and smoking. These findings might help to strengthen the understanding of the CYP2R1 gene in the occurrence of CHD.

Age at death in elderly cohorts of four European countries of the Seven Countries Study: the role of comorbidities

PURPOSE

To study age at death (AD) in elderly men as a function of risk factors and morbid conditions in a 25-year follow-up.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Men enrolled in the Seven Countries Study belonging to 8 cohorts in 4 European countries (Finland, The Netherlands, Italy and Serbia) were examined between 1984 and 1989 (aged 65-84 years) with measurement of some cardiovascular risk factors and recording of a few major morbid conditions. AD was measured after 25-year follow-up and used in multiple linear regression (MLR) models as dependent variable; while, risk factors and morbid conditions had the role of independent variables.

RESULTS

Out of 2457 men, 2290 died during 25-year follow-up. Overall mean AD was of 82.0 years and slightly different across cohorts, the lowest being recorded in Finland. Age at entry examination and HDL cholesterol were directly associated with AD; while, blood pressure, heart rate, smoking habits and morbid conditions (major cardiovascular diseases, either independently or combined together with diabetes, chronic bronchitis, cancer and silent ECG abnormalities) were inversely related to AD. Body mass index had a parabolic relation with AD with longer survival for levels around 24 units; while, total serum cholesterol was not related to AD. However, only three independent variables were statistically significant when tested in each individual country (age, heart rate and stroke). In a MLR model, where a comorbidity score was entered as independent variable (everything else being equal), the presence of 1 morbid condition was associated with a reduced AD by 1.87 years that increased up to 6.39 years when 4 morbid conditions were present.

CONCLUSION

AD seems a valuable indicator of all-cause mortality when the study population has reached or approached the extinction.

Association of serum cholesterol with coronary heart disease mortality during 50-year follow-up in ten cohorts of the seven countries study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The association of serum cholesterol levels with the occurrence of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality during a follow-up of 50 years was rarely investigated previously. Thus, we took advantage of results at hand in 10 pooled cohorts of men aged 40-59 years from the Seven Countries Study (9063 individuals and 2057 CHD fatal events) and we assessed this.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Cox proportional hazards models were run with CHD fatal events (as dependent variable) and cholesterol levels (as independent variables) at years 0, 10, and 25 (in 5 cohorts). Cumulative events during subsequent decades (cumulative approach: CA) and separately in each subsequent decade (partitioned approach: PA) were analyzed. The ecological correlation of average baseline serum cholesterol levels with CHD mortality was very high (R = 0.97). Serum cholesterol and CHD mortality for 50 years were associated at the individual level, and the association estimated by the Cox's coefficients (and related hazards ratios) was initially strong in both CA and PA, but slightly declined during later decades. Hazards ratios (for a difference of 40 mg/dl) ranged from 1.39 to 1.20 for CA and from 1.39 to 0.80 for PA. Coefficients were larger for CA than for PA and the decline was more evident for the latter. Partitioned coefficient became negative and significant in the last decade (from year 40-50). Coefficients derived from cholesterol levels measured at year 10 of follow-up showed similar trends but their magnitude was smaller.

CONCLUSION

Thus, the relationship of serum cholesterol levels with CHD mortality remained relatively stable during at least 40 years after a single cholesterol measurement at baseline in middle-aged men.

Identification of N-benzothiazolyl-2-benzenesulfonamides as novel ABCA1 expression upregulators

ATP binding cassette transporter A1 (ABCA1) is a critical transporter that mediates cellular cholesterol efflux from macrophages to apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I). Therefore, increasing the expression level of ABCA1 is anti-atherogenic and ABCA1 expression upregulators have become novel choices for atherosclerosis treatment. In this study, a series of N-benzothiazolyl-2-benzenesulfonamides, based on the structure of WY06 discovered in our laboratory, were designed and synthesized as novel ABCA1 expression upregulators. Based on an in vitro ABCA1 upregulatory cell model, ABCA1 upregulation of target compounds was evaluated. Compounds 6c, 6d, and 6i have good upregulated ABCA1 expression activities, with EC₅₀ values of 0.97, 0.37, and 0.41 μM, respectively. A preliminary structure-activity relationship is summarized. Replacing the methoxy group on the benzothiazole moiety of WY06 with a fluorine or chlorine atom and exchanging the ester group with a cyano group resulted in more potent ABCA1 upregulating activity. Moreover, compound 6i increased ABCA1 mRNA and protein expression and significantly promoted cholesterol efflux in RAW264.7 cells. In conclusion, N-benzothiazolyl-2-benzenesulfonamides were identified as novel ABCA1 expression upregulators.

How the Seven Countries Study contributed to the launch and development of cardiovascular epidemiology in Italy. A historical perspective

The Italian research group of the Seven Countries Study of Cardiovascular Diseases (SCS), through the independent use of the national cohorts and data, had the lucky opportunity, starting in the early 1960, to launch the Italian research in epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). In this way, the Italian Section of that international study became the first investigation with baseline measurements in various cohorts, subsequent re-examinations, systematic search for morbid events, and follow-up for mortality up to 50 years. A large number of scientific aspects has been tackled including estimates of morbidity and mortality rates, the association of risk factors with cardiovascular events and total mortality, the role of risk factor changes, the use of multivariable models, the role of lifestyle behavior, the determinants of all-cause mortality including risk factors rarely measured in other studies, the identification of characteristics of a condition called Heart Disease of Uncertain Etiology (HDUE), the production of predictive tools for practical use and several other issues. All this has been enhanced by the availability of extremely long follow-up data rarely found in other studies. Field work organization, measurement techniques, diagnostic criteria, data handling and computing had the limitations and difficulties typical of those times, the mid of last century, when CVD epidemiology was at its beginning. All this represented anyhow the start of CVD epidemiology research in the country and was the stimulus to the start of other studies and a valuable collaboration with some of them.

Epidemiology of Heart Disease of Uncertain Etiology: A Population Study and Review of the Problem

Background and objectives: Previous epidemiological studies have identified a group of heart diseases (here called heart diseases of uncertain etiology-HDUE) whose characteristics were rather different from cases classified as coronary heart disease (CHD), but frequently confused with them. This analysis had the purpose of adding further evidence on this issue based on a large population study. Materials and Methods: Forty-five Italian population samples for a total of 25,272 men and 21,895 women, free from cardiovascular diseases, were examined with measurement of some risk factors. During follow-up, CHD deaths were those manifested as myocardial infarction, other acute ischemic attacks, and sudden death of probable coronary origin, after reasonable exclusion of other causes. Cases of HDUE were those manifested only as heart failure, chronic arrhythmia, and blocks in the absence of typical coronary syndromes. Cox proportional hazards models were computed separately for CHD and HDUE, with 11 risk factors as possible predictors. Results: During an average of 7.4 years (extremes 1-16) there were 223 CHD and 150 HDUE fatal events. Male sex, age, smoking habits, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, and plasma glucose were significantly and directly related to CHD events, while high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol was so in an inverse way. The same risk factors were predictive of HDUE events except serum cholesterol and HDL cholesterol. Multivariable hazards ratio of serum cholesterol (delta = 1 mmol/L) was higher in the CHD model (1.24, 95% CI 1.11-1.39) than in the HDUE model (1.03, 0.5% C.I. 0.89-1.19) and the difference between the respective coefficients was statistically significant (p = 0.0444). Age at death was not different between the two end-points. Conclusions: CHD and HDUE are probably two different morbid conditions, only the first one is likely bound to gross atherosclerotic lesions of coronary arteries and linked to blood lipid levels. We reviewed the problem in epidemiological investigations and addressed inflammation as a potential cofactor to differentiate between CHD and HDUE.

Competing risks and cause-specific mortality in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Currently, there are no competing risk analyses of cause-specific mortality in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We estimated a cumulative incidence function for cause-specific mortality. The first nomogram for predicting cause-specific mortality was constructed using a proportional subdistribution hazard model, validated using bootstrap cross-validation, and evaluated with decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

Sex, age, positive lymph node status, metastasis, surveillance, epidemiology, and end results historic stage, grade, and surgery strongly predicted cause-specific mortality. The discrimination performance of Fine-Gray models was evaluated using the c-index, which was 0.864. In addition, the calibration plot of the developed nomogram demonstrated good concordance between the predicted and actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis yielded a range of threshold probabilities (0.014-0.779) at which the clinical net benefit of the risk model was greater than that in hypothetical all-screening or no-screening scenarios.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram allows selection of a patient population at high risk for cancer-specific mortality and thus facilitates the design of prevention trials for the affected population.

Age at death of major cardiovascular diseases in 13 cohorts. The seven countries study of cardiovascular diseases 45-year follow-up

OBJECTIVES

To explore age at death (AD) for major cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and their risk factors in originally middle-aged men followed nearly to extinction in the Seven Countries Study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Thirteen cohorts of men aged 40-59 years (N = 10,628) in seven countries (USA, Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Serbia, Greece, Japan) were enrolled in late 1950s and early 1960s and were followed 45 years for mortality. AD was computed for coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke (STR), heart disease of uncertain aetiology (HDUE) and for all-causes. AD was compared across CHD-HDUE-STR. Cox models were computed for each end-point using baseline age, cigarettes smoking, systolic blood pressure and serum cholesterol.

RESULTS

After 45 years 92.9% of men had died. The most common CVD death was CHD in most cohorts except some Mediterranean and Japanese cohorts where STR or HDUE were most prevalent. In 13 cohorts mean AD was 74.5, 73.5, 75.7 and 79.1 years, respectively, for all-cause, CHD, STR and HDUE mortality (all possible differences were significant). The difference, across cohorts, between the highest and the lowest mean AD was 12.9, 9.0 and 4.7 years for CHD, HDUE and STR mortality, respectively. Risk factors explored were significant predictors of all three CVD end-points, except serum cholesterol, specific to CHD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

AD is a useful indicator of previous health and aging populations. STR and HDUE are diseases appearing later in life, thus being associated with a higher AD compared with CHD mortality.

Coronary heart disease mortality trends during 50 years as explained by risk factor changes: The European cohorts of the Seven Countries Study

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to relate risk factor changes during decades with 50-year coronary heart disease mortality in European cohorts of middle-aged men of the Seven Countries Study.

Material and methods

In the 1950s–early 1960s, nine cohorts of 6518 men aged 40–59 years were examined in five European countries. Smoking habits, systolic blood pressure and serum cholesterol were measured at entry and five times during the next 35 years and a comprehensive Risk Factor Change Score was created. Coronary heart disease mortality data was collected during a 50-year follow-up, modelled by the Weibull distribution, whose shape (Weibull shape) was related to the Risk Factor Change Score by linear regression.

Results

The Risk Factor Change Score showed slight declines in the Finnish and Dutch cohorts, moderate or large increases in the other cohorts. These effects were related to a decrease of smoking habits in all cohorts, an increase of blood pressure in all cohorts except East Finland, a decrease of serum cholesterol in Finland and the Netherlands, whereas serum cholesterol increases were slight in Italy and large in Serbia and Greece. Weibull distribution shape for coronary heart disease mortality showed slight deceleration in one Finnish and the Dutch cohorts, large acceleration in the Serbian and Greek cohorts. The correlation coefficient of the Risk Factor Change Score versus Weibull shape for the nine cohorts was 0.78 ( R2 = 0.60; p = 0.0132).

Conclusions

Spontaneous long-term changes of major coronary risk factor levels were associated with changes in the same direction of coronary heart disease mortality risk modelled by the Weibull distribution, expressing a kind of ‘natural experiment’ with an outcome that matches those of controlled preventive trials.

Depression Levels Following Discharge Predict Quality of Life in Heart Disease Patients

Abstract Depression and stress have been related with poor Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) prognosis. However, it is not clear when these depressive symptoms should be measured. A sample of 177 Coronary Heart Disease patients were followed for 15 months aimed to compare the effect of depression and stress measure at time of hospitalization and three months later on the physical HRQoL trajectory. Linear growth models’ results showed that depression and stress after discharge are negatively correlated with the physical HRQoL and depressive symptoms negatively affect the prognosis of these patients.

Age at death in cohorts of middle-aged men followed-up until nearly extinction: the European areas of the Seven Countries Study

OBJECTIVES

To describe age at death (AD) in ten cohorts of middle-aged men followed-up until nearly extinction as a function of personal characteristics measured at baseline.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Cohorts of men aged 40-59 years in five European countries (Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Serbia, Greece) were examined and then followed-up for mortality during 45 (3 cohorts) or 50 years (7 cohorts). Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were computed with AD as dependent variable and 35 personal characteristics as independent variables.

RESULTS

Out of 7047 men, 6798 (96.5%) died in 45-50 years. Average AD was 74.4 (median 75) years. Only five variables were significant in all the five countries when tested by MLR. By pooling together all countries and selecting variables by a stepwise technique, 20 were significant (p < .05): age at entry examination, being married, being a never smoker or an ex-smoker (versus current smokers), forced expiratory volume, high socio-economic status, arm circumference, subscapular skinfold, having moderate or vigorous physical activity (all with a positive relationship with AD); father early mortality, laterality/linearity index, high systolic blood pressure, high serum cholesterol, having a major cardiovascular disease, diabetes or chronic bronchitis (these with a negative relationship), while body mass index, subdivided into four classes, showed a parabolic relationship (versus a reference class). Each factor was associated with a difference of months or a few years to AD, while their combinations were associated with several years of greater or smaller AD.

CONCLUSIONS

The availability of a relatively small number of risk factors measured in middle-aged men allows making rough estimates of AD as related to all-cause mortality during a follow-up of 50 years. AD is also a valuable metrics to describe past health in nearly extinct populations. Key messages We aimed at studying the age at death (AD) of middle-aged men of the European cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, followed-up 45-50 years until nearly extinction, as a function of personal characteristics measured at baseline. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were computed with AD as dependent variable and 35 personal characteristics or risk factors as independent variables and only five were significant in all individual countries, whereas pooling together all countries, 20 variables were significant as selected by stepwise MLR. Each factor was associated with differences of months or a few years to AD, while their combinations were associated with several years of greater or smaller AD. AD is a valuable metrics to describe past health in nearly extinct populations: it might also be used to communicate years of life gained by preventive measures on modifiable variables.

Can we still learn from the Seven Countries Study?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The Seven Countries Study (SCS) of Cardiovascular Diseases started midway last century and was the pioneer investigation of coronary heart disease (CHD) at international level. The 16 cohorts of middle-aged men enrolled in eight nations of seven countries allowed to show large differences of CHD incidence and mortality across different cultures, partly explained by average levels of serum cholesterol and dietary habits, that is, Western type patterns in the high-risk populations, and Mediterranean or Oriental type in Southern Europe and Japan. Later, critics to the validity of the study were largely based on fake news, wrong or distorted information uncritically transmitted in a cascade of media.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent analyses based on 45-50 years of follow-up showed and confirmed that diet patterns were associated with all-cause mortality and age at death; that multivariate coefficients of major risk factors of CHD were not heterogeneous across different populations and cultures; that analysis of competing risks of CHD versus other conditions identified serum cholesterol as the critical determinant; that true CHD manifestations had different determinants compared with Heart Diseases of Uncertain Etiology frequently confused with CHD.

SUMMARY

The SCS can still teach investigators and scholars of cardiovascular epidemiology, if old contributions are carefully read and interpreted; it is still recognized as the seminal study in this area at international level although it had limits as any other study but represented the first step into the identification of the relationship of diet with CHD and mortality across populations, and of the Mediterranean diet.

Challenges in Sex- and Gender-Centered Prevention and Management of Cardiovascular Disease: Implications of Genetic, Metabolic, and Environmental Paths

The recognition of cardiovascular disease (CVD) as a "male" privilege has been a commonly held concept. However, emerging data describe another reality. Heterogeneities have been convincingly demonstrated regarding CVD manifestations, risk factor burden, and prognosis between males and females. The aim of the present narrative review was to highlight sex- and gender-related discrepancies in primary and secondary CVD prevention, underscoring plausible underlying mechanisms. Manifestation of CVD in women is characterized by atypical symptoms/signs and inadequately studied pathophysiology features challenging accurate diagnosis and effective treatment. Regarding CVD risk assessment, the burden and effect size of conventional, novel, and female-specific risk factors needs better clarification. Hitherto outcomes are nonconsistent, while most importantly, the interpretation of the attendant metabolic paths remains a challenge; the interactions among genetic, metabolic, and environmental factors are of high complexity regulated by genomic and nongenomic sex hormones effects. To deal with these key points, the National Institutes of Health currently calls upon investigators to provide a sex- and gender-specific reporting in all health research hypotheses. The implementation of high-quality studies addressing these issues is an imperative need to maximize cost-effectiveness in prevention and management strategies.

Incidence and mortality of kidney cancer: temporal patterns and global trends in 39 countries

We tested the hypotheses that kidney cancer incidence was increasing globally whilst its mortality was reducing; and its incidence was positively correlated with country-specific socioeconomic development. The incidence and mortality figures of each country were projected to 2030. Data on age-standardized incidence/mortality rates were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN in 2012. Temporal patterns were examined for 39 countries from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents volumes I-X and other national registries. We evaluated the correlation between the incidence/mortality rates and Human Development Index (HDI)/Gross Domestic Product (GDP]). The average annual percent change of its incidence and mortality in the most recent 10 years was obtained from joinpoint regression. The highest incidence rates were observed in Eastern Europe and North America, while its mortality rates were the highest in European countries. Incidence was positively correlated with HDI and GDP per capita. Many countries experienced incidence rise over the most recent 10 years, and a substantial reduction in mortality rates was observed for a significant number of countries, yet increases in mortality rates were observed in Eastern Europe. By 2030, Brazil and Ecuador may have the greatest rise in incidence both in men and women, which requires urgent need for planning healthcare resources.

Is Corneal Arcus Independently Associated With Incident Cardiovascular Disease in Asians?

PURPOSE

To examine the longitudinal relationship between baseline corneal arcus (CA) and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in ethnic Indian and Malay adults in Singapore.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

METHODS

Indian and Malay adults aged 40-80 years were recruited for baseline and 6-year follow-up visits between 2004-2009 and 2010-2015, respectively (follow-up response rate 73.9%). CA was assessed by ophthalmologists using slit-lamp biomicroscopy. The main outcome was self-reported incident CVD, defined as new myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, or stroke, which developed between baseline and follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed independent associations between baseline CA and incident CVD, adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors including age, sex, serum cholesterol, hypertension, diabetes, and smoking. We further conducted sex-stratified analyses to identify possible effect modifications.

RESULTS

Of the total 3637 participants (overall mean [SD] age: 56 [9] years, 46% male) with available follow-up data, without history of CVD at baseline, 208 (5.7%) incident CVD cases were reported. Participants with CA were more likely to have incident CVD (7.5%) than those without (4.9%). After controlling for traditional CVD risk factors, CA was independently associated with incident CVD (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.52 [1.07-2.16]) in adjusted models. In sex-stratified models, associations between CA and incident CVD were seen in men (1.73 [1.12-2.67]) and not in women (1.05 [0.56-1.97]).

CONCLUSIONS

CA is associated with incident CVD, independent of serum lipids and traditional CVD risk factors, in ethnic Malay and Indian men. Our finding suggests that CA is an additional observable indicator of CVD in men.

The fate of patients with intermittent claudication in the 21st century revisited - results from the CAVASIC Study

Patients with intermittent claudication carry a high risk for cardiovascular complications. The TransAtlantic Inter-Society Consensus (TASC) Group estimated a five-year overall mortality of 30% for these patients, the majority dying from cardiovascular causes. We investigated whether this evaluation is still applicable in nowadays patients. We therefore prospectively followed 255 male patients with intermittent claudication from the CAVASIC Study during 7 years for overall mortality, vascular morbidity and mortality and local PAD outcomes. Overall mortality reached 16.1% (n = 41). Most patients died from cancer (n = 20). Half of patients (n = 22; 8.6%) died within the first five years. Incident cardiovascular events were observed among 70 patients (27.5%), 54 (21.2%) during the first five years. Vascular mortality was low with 5.1% (n = 13) for the entire and 3.1% for the first five years of follow-up. Prevalent coronary artery disease did not increase the risk to die from all or vascular causes. PAD symptoms remained stable or improved in the majority of patients (67%). In summary, compared to TASC, the proportion of cardiovascular events did not markedly decrease over the last two decades. Vascular mortality, however, was low among our population. This indicates that nowadays patients more often survive cardiovascular events and a major number dies from cancer.

Association of high normal HbA1c and TSH levels with the risk of CHD: a 10-year cohort study and SVM analysis

This study aimed to determine the association between the clinical reference range of serum glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and thyrotropin (TSH) and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in non-diabetic and euthyroid patients. We examined baseline HbA1c and TSH in 538 healthy participants, and then analyzed the associations and potential value of these indicators for predicting CHD using Cox proportional hazard and support vector machine analyses. During the median follow-up of 120 months, 39 participants later developed CHD. The baseline HbA1c and TSH within the reference range were positively associated with CHD risk. No correlation and interaction were found between the baseline HbA1c and TSH for the development of CHD. Disease event-free survival varied among participants with different baseline HbA1c quintiles, whereas disease event-free survival was similar for different TSH tertiles. The combination of these baselines showed sensitivity of 87.2%, specificity of 92.7%, and accuracy of 92.3% for identifying the participants who will later develop CHD. Relatively high but clinically normal HbA1c and TSH levels may increase the risk of CHD. Therefore, the combination of these indicators can serve as a biomarker for identifying healthy individuals from those who would later develop CHD.