The epidemiology of 32 selected communicable diseases in Iraq, 2004-2016

The impact of conflict on infectious disease: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Conflict situations, armed or not, have been associated with emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. This review aims to identify the pathways through which infectious diseases emerge within conflict situations and to outline appropriate infectious disease preparedness and response strategies.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed representing published evidence from January 2000 to October 2023. Ovid Medline and Embase were utilised to obtain literature on infectious diseases in any conflict settings. The systematic review adhered to PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis). No geographical restrictions were imposed.

FINDINGS

Our review identified 51 studies covering AIDS, Hepatitis B, Tuberculosis, Cholera, Coronavirus 2, Ebola, Poliomyelitis, Malaria, Leishmaniasis, Measles, Diphtheria, Dengue and Acute Bacterial Meningitis within conflict settings in Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Africa since October 2023. Key factors contributing to disease emergence and transmission in conflict situations included population displacement, destruction of vital infrastructure, reduction in functioning healthcare systems and healthcare personnel, disruption of disease control programmes (including reduced surveillance, diagnostic delays, and interrupted vaccinations), reduced access by healthcare providers to populations within areas of active conflict, increased population vulnerability due to limited access to healthcare services, and disruptions in the supply chain of safe water, food, and medication. To mitigate these infectious disease risks reported preparedness and response strategies included both disease-specific intervention strategies as well as broader concepts such as the education of conflict-affected populations through infectious disease awareness programmes, investing in and enabling health care in locations with displaced populations, intensifying immunisation campaigns, and ensuring political commitment and intersectoral collaborations between governments and international organisations.

CONCLUSION

Conflict plays a direct and indirect role in the transmission and propagation of infectious diseases. The findings from this review can assist decision-makers in the development of evidence-based preparedness and response strategies for the timely and effective containment of infectious disease outbreaks in conflict zones and amongst conflict-driven displaced populations.

FUNDING

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control under specific contract No. 22 ECD.13,154 within Framework contract ECDC/2019/001 Lot 1B.

Economic sanctions and spread of infectious diseases

Economic sanctions can induce economic crises and compromise the determinants of health. In the literature, economic crises have been found to increase the risk of infectious disease outbreaks. Presumably, sanctions can increase the risk of infectious disease spreads, indirectly. However, non-economic factors can fuel the adverse impact of sanctions, including political consequences of sanctions and civil war. We performed a systematic literature review of articles in Embase, MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and the grey literature to assess empirically the impact of economic sanctions on the spread of infectious diseases within and beyond the borders of sanctioned countries. Our review did not identify any study meeting our inclusion criteria. Most of the studies did not control for major socio-political events, particularly armed conflicts in the sanctioned countries. This discovery underscores a notable gap in the examination of the impact of economic sanctions on the propagation of infectious diseases, presenting a threat to global health. Using the social-ecological model, we hypothesize how the economic crisis resulting from economic sanctions affects determinants of health, increases the risk of the spread of infectious diseases and hinders the response capacity of health systems.

The lessons of COVID-19 pandemic for communicable diseases surveillance system in Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Objectives

This study aimed to determine the opportunities of and barriers to communicable diseases surveillance system (CDSS) during the COVID-19 pandemic and the extent to which the disease integrated into the CDSS in the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

Study design

A descriptive qualitative approach was applied.

Methods

We conducted seven semi-structured interviews and seven interviewee in a focus group discussion (FGD) with purposefully identified Key Informants (KI) from June to December 2020. All interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed verbatim. We adopted a mixed deductive-inductive approach for thematic data analysis, facilitated by using MAXQDA20 software for data management.

Results

Although the CDSS was considered appropriate and flexible, the COVID-19 was interpreted not to be integrated into the system due to political influence. The main concerns regarding core and support activities were the lack of epidemic preparedness, timeliness, and partial cessation of training and supervision during the pandemic. The existence of reasonable surveillance infrastructure, i.e., trained staff, was identified as an opportunity for improvement. The main challenges include staff deficiency, absence of motivation and financial support for present staff, scarce logistics, managerial and administrative issues, and lack of cooperation, particularly among stakeholders and surveillance staff.

Conclusion

Our findings revealed that the CDSS in the Kurdistan region requires substantial enhancement in epidemic preparedness, strengthening human resources, and logistics. the system can be developed by fostering meaningful intersectoral collaboration. We advocate that the health authorities and policy-makers prioritise the surveillance and effective management of communicable diseases.

Association Between Subnational Vaccine Coverage, Migration, and Incident Cases of Measles, Mumps, and Rubella in Iraq, 2001–2016

Objective

This analysis examines governorate-level disease incidence as well as the relationship between incidence and the number of persons of concern for three vaccine-preventable diseases—measles, mumps, and rubella—between 2001 and 2016.

Methods

Using Iraqi Ministry of Health and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) data, we performed descriptive analyses of disease incidence and conducted a pooled statistical analysis with a linear mixed effects regression model to examine the role of vaccine coverage and migration of persons of concern on subnational disease incidence.

Results

We found large variability in governorate-level incidence, particularly for measles (on the order of 100x). We identified decreases in incident measles cases per 100,000 persons for each additional percent vaccinated (0.82, 95% CI: [0.64, 1.00], p-value < 0.001) and for every additional 10,000 persons of concern when incorporating displacement into our model (0.26, 95% CI: [0.22, 0.30], p-value < 0.001). These relationships were insignificant for mumps and rubella.

Conclusions

National level summary statistics do not adequately capture the high geospatial disparity in disease incidence between 2001 and 2016. This variability is complicated by MMR vaccine coverage and the migration of “persons of concern” (refugees) during conflict. We found that even when vaccine coverage was constant, measles incidence was higher in locations with more displaced persons, suggesting conflict fueled the epidemic in ways that vaccine coverage could not control.

Pediatric Infectious Diseases Encountered During Wartime-Part 1: Experiences and Lessons Learned From Armed Conflict in the Modern Era

Purpose of Review

Armed conflicts occur globally, with some regions experiencing heightened instability for many years. A better understanding of the infectious disease impact on children in armed conflict will allow aid organizations to anticipate and mitigate the most serious problems.

Recent Findings

Armed conflicts are estimated to have caused approximately 30 million civilian deaths during the past 27 years, with two-thirds occurring in women and children. Children are extremely vulnerable to the mass population displacements, experiencing a combined loss of safety, nutrition, shelter, hygiene, and health care. Under these circumstances, the emergence and prevalence of multiple infectious diseases can result in heightened morbidity and mortality long after active conflict ceases.

Summary

Factors leading to increased infectious diseases in populations in crisis due to armed conflict and lessons learned from recent outbreaks are discussed in detail. Acute respiratory infections, diphtheria, measles, varicella, and cholera are a few of the more common infectious diseases that take advantage of populations displaced or disrupted by conflict. Key issues include the ability of countries or non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to keep up with basic childhood immunizations, and how rapidly disease outbreaks are recognized and addressed with disease-specific interventions.

Assessment of core and support functions of the communicable disease surveillance system in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Early detection and prompt response are crucial measures to prevent and control outbreaks. Public health agencies, therefore, designed the Communicable Disease Surveillance System (CDSS) to obtain essential data instantaneously to be used for appropriate action. However, a periodic evaluation of CDSS is indispensable to ensure the functionality of the system. For this reason, this study aims to assess the performance of the core and support functions of the CDSS in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. A descriptive cross‐sectional study was used. From a total of 291 health facilities HFs (Primary health care centers and Hospitals) in the Kurdistan region of Iraq that have surveillance activities, 74 HFs were selected using a random stratified sampling approach. The World Health Organization (WHO) generic questionnaire has been used to interview the surveillance staff, together with direct collection of the data. Our analysis shows a lack of surveillance guiding manual in the HFs. Even at the district level, where a surveillance manual existed, case definitions, thresholds, and control measures were still missing. To note, more than 93% of HFs had organized and comprehensive patients registers for the collection of their clinical and secondary data. Also, all HFs had functioning laboratories. The majority of them (almost 93%) were equipped to collect, process, and store blood, stool, and urine specimens. About 72% of these laboratories were also able to transport timely the specimens to more specialized laboratories. At all levels, data reporting to the higher level exceeded the recommended minimum rate of 80%. The reporting system at the district level was based on emails, while in the periphery on hand‐delivered in paper‐based formats (50%), telephone (22%), and social media (22%). Furthermore, our analysis highlights the lack of data analysis: only 3.8% of Primary Health Care Centers conduct simple data analysis regularly, while hospitals do not do any sort of analysis. Also, only a few HFs investigated an outbreak, though using system routine sources to capture these public health events. Our findings show a lack in epidemic preparedness (3%), in feedback (53%), in standard guidelines, training, supervision, and resource allocations in HFs (0%). Taken together, our data show the importance of strengthening the CDSS in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, by reinforcing the surveillance system with continuous feedback, supervision, well‐trained and motivated staff, technical support, and coordination between researchers and physicians.

Secular Seasonality and Trend Forecasting of Tuberculosis Incidence Rate in China Using the Advanced Error-Trend-Seasonal Framework

Objective

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in China, and contriving a long-term forecast is a useful aid for better launching prevention initiatives. Regrettably, such a forecasting method with robust and accurate performance is still lacking. Here, we aim to investigate its potential of the error-trend-seasonal (ETS) framework through a series of comparative experiments to analyze and forecast its secular epidemic seasonality and trends of TB incidence in China.

Methods

We collected the TB incidence data from January 1997 to August 2019, and then partitioning the data into eight different training and testing subsamples. Thereafter, we constructed the ETS and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models based on the training subsamples, and multiple performance indices including the mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-squared error, and mean error rate were adopted to assess their simulation and projection effects.

Results

In the light of the above performance measures, the ETS models provided a pronounced improvement for the long-term seasonality and trend forecasting in TB incidence rate over the SARIMA models, be it in various training or testing subsets apart from the 48-step ahead forecasting. The descriptive results to the data revealed that TB incidence showed notable seasonal characteristics with predominant peaks of spring and early summer and began to be plunging at on average 3.722% per year since 2008. However, this rate reduced to 2.613% per year since 2015 and furthermore such a trend would be predicted to continue in years ahead.

Conclusion

The ETS framework has the ability to conduct long-term forecasting for TB incidence, which may be beneficial for the long-term planning of the TB prevention and control. Additionally, considering the predicted dropping rate of TB morbidity, more particular strategies should be formulated to dramatically accelerate progress towards the goals of the End TB Strategy.