Predicting hospitalization of pediatric asthma patients in emergency departments using machine learning

AI model for predicting asthma prognosis in children

Background

Childhood asthma often continues into adulthood, but some children experience remission. Utilizing electronic health records (EHRs) to predict asthma prognosis can aid health care providers and patients in developing effective prioritized care plans.

Objective

We aimed to develop artificial intelligence (AI) models using various clinical variables extracted from EHRs to predict childhood asthma prognosis (remission vs no remission) in different age groups.

Methods

We developed AI models utilizing patients' EHRs during the first 6, 9, or 12 years of their lives to predict their asthma prognosis status at ages 6 to 9, 9 to 12, or 12 to 15 years, respectively. We first developed the models based on a manually annotated birth cohort (n = 900). We then leveraged a larger birth cohort (n = 29,594) labeled automatically (with weak labels) by a previously validated natural language processing algorithm for asthma prognosis. Different models (logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost [eXtreme Gradient Boosting]) were tested with diverse clinical variables from structured and unstructured EHRs.

Results

The best AI models of each age group produced a prediction performance with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.85 to 0.93. The prediction model at age 12 showed the highest performance. Most of the AI models with weak labels showed enhanced performance, and models using the top 10 variables performed similarly to those using all of the variables.

Conclusions

The AI models effectively predicted asthma prognosis for children by using EHRs with a relatively small number of variables. This approach demonstrates the potential to enhance prioritized care plans and patient education, improving disease management and quality of life for asthmatic patients.

Applications of machine learning approaches for pediatric asthma exacerbation management: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Pediatric asthma is a common chronic respiratory disease worldwide, and its acute exacerbation events significantly impact children's health and quality of life. Machine learning, an advanced data analysis technique, has shown great potential in healthcare applications in recent years. This systematic review aims to assess the application of ML techniques in pediatric asthma exacerbation and explore their effectiveness and potential value.

METHODS

Studies from four electronic databases, including PubMed, EBSCO, Elsevier, and Web of Science, from Jan 2000 to Jan 2025, were searched. Studies applying the ML methods for pediatric asthma exacerbation and published in English were eligible. The risk of bias and applicability of the included studies was assessed using the Effective Public Health Practice Project (EPHPP) quality assessment tool.

RESULTS

A total of 23 studies were selected for inclusion in this review, covering different ML models such as decision trees, neural networks, and support vector machines. These studies focused on analyzing risk factors for asthma exacerbation, diagnosing and predicting, optimizing and allocating healthcare resources, and comprehensive asthma management. The results show that ML techniques have significant advantages in the application of pediatric asthma exacerbation and in the provision of personalized health care.

CONCLUSIONS

ML techniques show great promise for application in pediatric asthma exacerbations. With further research and clinical validation, these techniques are expected to provide strong support for diagnosis, personalized treatment, and long-term management of pediatric asthma exacerbation.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

Not applicable, Prospero registration number CRD42024559232.

Exploring Machine Learning Applications in Pediatric Asthma Management: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

The integration of machine learning (ML) in predicting asthma-related outcomes in children presents a novel approach in pediatric health care.

OBJECTIVE

This scoping review aims to analyze studies published since 2019, focusing on ML algorithms, their applications, and predictive performances.

METHODS

We searched Ovid MEDLINE ALL and Embase on Ovid, the Cochrane Library (Wiley), CINAHL (EBSCO), and Web of Science (core collection). The search covered the period from January 1, 2019, to July 18, 2023. Studies applying ML models in predicting asthma-related outcomes in children aged <18 years were included. Covidence was used for citation management, and the risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool.

RESULTS

From 1231 initial articles, 15 met our inclusion criteria. The sample size ranged from 74 to 87,413 patients. Most studies used multiple ML techniques, with logistic regression (n=7, 47%) and random forests (n=6, 40%) being the most common. Key outcomes included predicting asthma exacerbations, classifying asthma phenotypes, predicting asthma diagnoses, and identifying potential risk factors. For predicting exacerbations, recurrent neural networks and XGBoost showed high performance, with XGBoost achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.76. In classifying asthma phenotypes, support vector machines were highly effective, achieving an AUROC of 0.79. For diagnosis prediction, artificial neural networks outperformed logistic regression, with an AUROC of 0.63. To identify risk factors focused on symptom severity and lung function, random forests achieved an AUROC of 0.88. Sound-based studies distinguished wheezing from nonwheezing and asthmatic from normal coughs. The risk of bias assessment revealed that most studies (n=8, 53%) exhibited low to moderate risk, ensuring a reasonable level of confidence in the findings. Common limitations across studies included data quality issues, sample size constraints, and interpretability concerns.

CONCLUSIONS

This review highlights the diverse application of ML in predicting pediatric asthma outcomes, with each model offering unique strengths and challenges. Future research should address data quality, increase sample sizes, and enhance model interpretability to optimize ML utility in clinical settings for pediatric asthma management.

Clinical performance of automated machine learning: A systematic review

Introduction

Automated machine learning (autoML) removes technical and technological barriers to building artificial intelligence models. We aimed to summarise the clinical applications of autoML, assess the capabilities of utilised platforms, evaluate the quality of the evidence trialling autoML, and gauge the performance of autoML platforms relative to conventionally developed models, as well as each other.

Method

This review adhered to a prospectively registered protocol (PROSPERO identifier CRD42022344427). The Cochrane Library, Embase, MEDLINE and Scopus were searched from inception to 11 July 2022. Two researchers screened abstracts and full texts, extracted data and conducted quality assessment. Disagreement was resolved through discussion and if required, arbitration by a third researcher.

Results

There were 26 distinct autoML platforms featured in 82 studies. Brain and lung disease were the most common fields of study of 22 specialties. AutoML exhibited variable performance: area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUCROC) 0.35-1.00, F1-score 0.16-0.99, area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) 0.51-1.00. AutoML exhibited the highest AUCROC in 75.6% trials; the highest F1-score in 42.3% trials; and the highest AUPRC in 83.3% trials. In autoML platform comparisons, AutoPrognosis and Amazon Rekognition performed strongest with unstructured and structured data, respectively. Quality of reporting was poor, with a median DECIDE-AI score of 14 of 27.

Conclusion

A myriad of autoML platforms have been applied in a variety of clinical contexts. The performance of autoML compares well to bespoke computational and clinical benchmarks. Further work is required to improve the quality of validation studies. AutoML may facilitate a transition to data-centric development, and integration with large language models may enable AI to build itself to fulfil user-defined goals.

Predicting pediatric severe asthma exacerbations: an administrative claims-based predictive model

OBJECTIVE

Previous machine learning approaches fail to consider race and ethnicity and social determinants of health (SDOH) to predict childhood asthma exacerbations. A predictive model for asthma exacerbations in children is developed to explore the importance of race and ethnicity, rural-urban commuting area (RUCA) codes, the Child Opportunity Index (COI), and other ICD-10 SDOH in predicting asthma outcomes.

METHODS

Insurance and coverage claims data from the Arkansas All-Payer Claims Database were used to capture risk factors. We identified a cohort of 22,631 children with asthma aged 5-18 years with 2 years of continuous Medicaid enrollment and at least one asthma diagnosis in 2018. The goal was to predict asthma-related hospitalizations and asthma-related emergency department (ED) visits in 2019. The analytic sample was 59% age 5-11 years, 39% White, 33% Black, and 6% Hispanic. Conditional random forest models were used to train the model.

RESULTS

The model yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 72%, sensitivity of 55% and specificity of 78% in the OOB samples and AUC of 73%, sensitivity of 58% and specificity of 77% in the training samples. Consistent with previous literature, asthma-related hospitalization or ED visits in the previous year (2018) were the two most important variables in predicting hospital or ED use in the following year (2019), followed by the total number of reliever and controller medications.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive models for asthma-related exacerbation achieved moderate accuracy, but race and ethnicity, ICD-10 SDOH, RUCA codes, and COI measures were not important in improving model accuracy.

Machine Learning-Based Asthma Attack Prediction Models From Routinely Collected Electronic Health Records: Systematic Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

An early warning tool to predict attacks could enhance asthma management and reduce the likelihood of serious consequences. Electronic health records (EHRs) providing access to historical data about patients with asthma coupled with machine learning (ML) provide an opportunity to develop such a tool. Several studies have developed ML-based tools to predict asthma attacks.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to critically evaluate ML-based models derived using EHRs for the prediction of asthma attacks.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed and Scopus (the search period was between January 1, 2012, and January 31, 2023) for papers meeting the following inclusion criteria: (1) used EHR data as the main data source, (2) used asthma attack as the outcome, and (3) compared ML-based prediction models' performance. We excluded non-English papers and nonresearch papers, such as commentary and systematic review papers. In addition, we also excluded papers that did not provide any details about the respective ML approach and its result, including protocol papers. The selected studies were then summarized across multiple dimensions including data preprocessing methods, ML algorithms, model validation, model explainability, and model implementation.

RESULTS

Overall, 17 papers were included at the end of the selection process. There was considerable heterogeneity in how asthma attacks were defined. Of the 17 studies, 8 (47%) studies used routinely collected data both from primary care and secondary care practices together. Extreme imbalanced data was a notable issue in most studies (13/17, 76%), but only 38% (5/13) of them explicitly dealt with it in their data preprocessing pipeline. The gradient boosting-based method was the best ML method in 59% (10/17) of the studies. Of the 17 studies, 14 (82%) studies used a model explanation method to identify the most important predictors. None of the studies followed the standard reporting guidelines, and none were prospectively validated.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review indicates that this research field is still underdeveloped, given the limited body of evidence, heterogeneity of methods, lack of external validation, and suboptimally reported models. We highlighted several technical challenges (class imbalance, external validation, model explanation, and adherence to reporting guidelines to aid reproducibility) that need to be addressed to make progress toward clinical adoption.

Automated detection of airflow obstructive diseases: A systematic review of the last decade (2013-2022)

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Obstructive airway diseases, including asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), are two of the most common chronic respiratory health problems. Both of these conditions require health professional expertise in making a diagnosis. Hence, this process is time intensive for healthcare providers and the diagnostic quality is subject to intra- and inter- operator variability. In this study we investigate the role of automated detection of obstructive airway diseases to reduce cost and improve diagnostic quality.

METHODS

We investigated the existing body of evidence and applied Preferred Reporting Items for Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines to search records in IEEE, Google scholar, and PubMed databases. We identified 65 papers that were published from 2013 to 2022 and these papers cover 67 different studies. The review process was structured according to the medical data that was used for disease detection. We identified six main categories, namely air flow, genetic, imaging, signals, and miscellaneous. For each of these categories, we report both disease detection methods and their performance.

RESULTS

We found that medical imaging was used in 14 of the reviewed studies as data for automated obstructive airway disease detection. Genetics and physiological signals were used in 13 studies. Medical records and air flow were used in 9 and 7 studies, respectively. Most papers were published in 2020 and we found three times more work on Machine Learning (ML) when compared to Deep Learning (DL). Statistical analysis shows that DL techniques achieve higher Accuracy (ACC) when compared to ML. Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is the most common DL classifier and Support Vector Machine (SVM) is the most widely used ML classifier. During our review, we discovered only two publicly available asthma and COPD datasets. Most studies used private clinical datasets, so data size and data composition are inconsistent.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review results indicate that Artificial Intelligence (AI) can improve both decision quality and efficiency of health professionals during COPD and asthma diagnosis. However, we found several limitations in this review, such as a lack of dataset consistency, a limited dataset and remote monitoring was not sufficiently explored. We appeal to society to accept and trust computer aided airflow obstructive diseases diagnosis and we encourage health professionals to work closely with AI scientists to promote automated detection in clinical practice and hospital settings.

Intelligent Framework for Early Detection of Severe Pediatric Diseases from Mild Symptoms

Children's health is one of the most significant fields in medicine. Most diseases that result in children's death or long-term morbidity are caused by preventable and treatable etiologies, and they appear in the child at the early stages as mild symptoms. This research aims to develop a machine learning (ML) framework to detect the severity of disease in children. The proposed framework helps in discriminating children's urgent/severe conditions and notifying parents whether a child needs to visit the emergency room immediately or not. The model considers several variables to detect the severity of cases, which are the symptoms, risk factors (e.g., age), and the child's medical history. The framework is implemented by using nine ML methods. The results achieved show the high performance of the proposed framework in identifying serious pediatric diseases, where decision tree and random forest outperformed the other methods with an accuracy rate of 94%. This shows the reliability of the proposed framework to be used as a pediatric decision-making system for detecting serious pediatric illnesses. The results are promising when compared to recent state-of-the-art studies. The main contribution of this research is to propose a framework that is viable for use by parents when their child suffers from any commonly developed symptoms.

Data harnessing to nurture the human mind for a tailored approach to the child

Big data in pediatrics is an ocean of structured and unstructured data. Big data analysis helps to dive into the ocean of data to filter out information that can guide pediatricians in their decision making, precision diagnosis, and targeted therapy. In addition, big data and its analysis have helped in the surveillance, prevention, and performance of the health system. There has been a considerable amount of work in pediatrics that we have tried to highlight in this review and some of it has been already incorporated into the health system. Work in specialties of pediatrics is still forthcoming with the creation of a common data model and amalgamation of the huge "omics" database. The physicians entrusted with the care of children must be aware of the outcome so that they can play a role to ensure that big data algorithms have a clinically relevant effect in improving the health of their patients. They will apply the outcome of big data and its analysis in patient care through clinical algorithms or with the help of embedded clinical support alerts from the electronic medical records. IMPACT: Big data in pediatrics include structured, unstructured data, waveform data, biological, and social data. Big data analytics has unraveled significant information from these databases. This is changing how pediatricians will look at the body of available evidence and translate it into their clinical practice. Data harnessed so far is implemented in certain fields while in others it is in the process of development to become a clinical adjunct to the physician. Common databases are being prepared for future work. Diagnostic and prediction models when incorporated into the health system will guide the pediatrician to a targeted approach to diagnosis and therapy.

Predicting the behavioral intentions of hospice and palliative care providers from real-world data using supervised learning: A cross-sectional survey study

Background

Hospice and palliative care (HPC) aims to improve end-of-life quality and has received much more attention through the lens of an aging population in the midst of the coronavirus disease pandemic. However, several barriers remain in China due to a lack of professional HPC providers with positive behavioral intentions. Therefore, we conducted an original study introducing machine learning to explore individual behavioral intentions and detect factors of enablers of, and barriers to, excavating potential human resources and improving HPC accessibility.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was designed to investigate healthcare providers' behavioral intentions, knowledge, attitudes, and practices in hospice care (KAPHC) with an indigenized KAPHC scale. Binary Logistic Regression and Random Forest Classifier (RFC) were performed to model impacting and predict individual behavioral intentions.

Results

The RFC showed high sensitivity (accuracy = 0.75; F1 score = 0.84; recall = 0.94). Attitude could directly or indirectly improve work enthusiasm and is the most efficient approach to reveal behavioral intentions. Continuous practice could also improve individual confidence and willingness to provide HPC. In addition, scientific knowledge and related skills were the foundation of implementing HPC.

Conclusion

Individual behavioral intention is crucial for improving HPC accessibility, particularly at the initial stage. A well-trained RFC can help estimate individual behavioral intentions to organize a productive team and promote additional policies.

Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Predict the Airway Disorders Illness: A Systematic Review

Airway disease is a major healthcare issue that causes at least 3 million fatalities every year. It is also considered one of the foremost causes of death all around the globe by 2030. Numerous studies have been undertaken to demonstrate the latest advances in artificial intelligence algorithms to assist in identifying and classifying these diseases. This comprehensive review aims to summarise the state-of-the-art machine and deep learning-based systems for detecting airway disorders, envisage the trends of the recent work in this domain, and analyze the difficulties and potential future paths. This systematic literature review includes the study of one hundred fifty-five articles on airway diseases such as cystic fibrosis, emphysema, lung cancer, Mesothelioma, covid-19, pneumoconiosis, asthma, pulmonary edema, tuberculosis, pulmonary embolism as well as highlights the automated learning techniques to predict them. The study concludes with a discussion and challenges about expanding the efficiency and machine and deep learning-assisted airway disease detection applications.

Implementation of prognostic machine learning algorithms in paediatric chronic respiratory conditions: a scoping review

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for predicting clinical outcomes in heterogeneous chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) affecting children, where timely individualised treatments offer opportunities for health optimisation. This paper identifies rate-limiting steps in ML prediction model development that impair clinical translation and discusses regulatory, clinical and ethical considerations for ML implementation. A scoping review of ML prediction models in paediatric CRDs was undertaken using the PRISMA extension scoping review guidelines. From 1209 results, 25 articles published between 2013 and 2021 were evaluated for features of a good clinical prediction model using the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines.Most of the studies were in asthma (80%), with few in cystic fibrosis (12%), bronchiolitis (4%) and childhood wheeze (4%). There were inconsistencies in model reporting and studies were limited by a lack of validation, and absence of equations or code for replication. Clinician involvement during ML model development is essential and diversity, equity and inclusion should be assessed at each step of the ML pipeline to ensure algorithms do not promote or amplify health disparities among marginalised groups. As ML prediction studies become more frequent, it is important that models are rigorously developed using published guidelines and take account of regulatory frameworks which depend on model complexity, patient safety, accountability and liability.

Principles for Designing and Developing a Workflow Monitoring Tool to Enable and Enhance Clinical Workflow Automation

BACKGROUND

Automation of health care workflows has recently become a priority. This can be enabled and enhanced by a workflow monitoring tool (WMOT).

OBJECTIVES

We shared our experience in clinical workflow analysis via three cases studies in health care and summarized principles to design and develop such a WMOT.

METHODS

The case studies were conducted in different clinical settings with distinct goals. Each study used at least two types of workflow data to create a more comprehensive picture of work processes and identify bottlenecks, as well as quantify them. The case studies were synthesized using a data science process model with focuses on data input, analysis methods, and findings.

RESULTS

Three case studies were presented and synthesized to generate a system structure of a WMOT. When developing a WMOT, one needs to consider the following four aspects: (1) goal orientation, (2) comprehensive and resilient data collection, (3) integrated and extensible analysis, and (4) domain experts.

DISCUSSION

We encourage researchers to investigate the design and implementation of WMOTs and use the tools to create best practices to enable workflow automation and improve workflow efficiency and care quality.

Machine learning: A modern approach to pediatric asthma

Among modern methods of statistical and computational analysis, the application of machine learning (ML) to healthcare data has been gaining recognition in helping us understand the heterogeneity of asthma and predicting its progression. In pediatric research, ML approaches may provide rapid advances in uncovering asthma phenotypes with potential translational impact in clinical practice. Also, several accurate models to predict asthma and its progression have been developed using ML. Here, we provide a brief overview of ML approaches recently proposed to characterize pediatric asthma.

Digital Healthcare for Airway Diseases from Personal Environmental Exposure

Digital technologies have emerged in various dimensions of human life, ranging from education to professional services to well-being. In particular, health products and services have expanded by the use and development of artificial intelligence, mobile health applications, and wearable electronic devices. Such advancements have enabled accurate and updated tracking and modeling of health conditions. For instance, digital health technologies are capable of measuring environmental pollution and predicting its adverse health effects. Several health conditions, including chronic airway diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, can be exacerbated by pollution. These diseases impose substantial health burdens with high morbidity and mortality. Recently, efforts have been made to develop digital technologies to alleviate such conditions. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has facilitated the application of telemedicine and telemonitoring for patients with chronic airway diseases. This article reviews current trends and studies in digital technology utilization for investigating and managing environmental exposure and chronic airway diseases. First, we discussed the recent progression of digital technologies in general environmental healthcare. Then, we summarized the capacity of digital technologies in predicting exacerbation and self-management of airway diseases. Concluding these reviews, we provided suggestions to improve digital health technologies' abilities to reduce the adverse effects of environmental exposure in chronic airway diseases, based on personal exposure-response modeling.

Correction of the travel time estimation for ambulances of the red cross Tijuana using machine learning

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the response time to a medical emergency, specifically from the Red Cross of Tijuana (RCT), which provides most of the emergency medical services (EMS) in the city of Tijuana, Mexico. For institutions with low funding, such as the RCT, relying on free or open source mapping systems to estimate travel times is necessary but also error prone because these systems are not tuned for ambulance movements within a city. Therefore, this work formulates a supervised machine learning problem where the goal is to predict the difference in travel time between the ground truth travel time provided by a GPS and the approximation offered by two mapping systems, Google Maps (GM) and Open Source Routing Machine (OSRM). To this end, this work develops a new dataset based on the EMS logs of the RCT, considering calls from January 2017 to April 2017. The posed learning problem is solved under different scenarios, including using an off-the-shelf default configuration of a Random Forest classifier, applying a hyper-parameter optimization process and using an Auto Machine Learning (AutoML) system. Considering all of the dataset for GM, test accuracy was 69.6% for the first two learning approaches and 71.6% using AutoML. For OSRM, performance was 64.6%, 65.2% and 66.4% for each of the learning approaches, respectively. Results show that it is possible to predict the level by which a mapping system over or under estimates the true travel time of an ambulance. Finally, the impact of the model is demonstrated by using it to solve the ambulance location problem, with notable differences in ambulance deployments and percentage of double coverage achieved relative to using the standard mapping system. Results show that without correcting the travel time the percentage of double coverage is 83.90%; on the other hand, double coverage reaches 100% when applying travel time correction.