Plague transforms positive effects of precipitation on prairie dogs to negative effects

Prairie dog responses to vector control and vaccination during an initial Yersinia pestis invasion

We evaluated the invasion of plague bacteria Yersinia pestis into a population of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus; BTPDs) in South Dakota. We aimed to ascertain if Y. pestis invaded slowly or rapidly, and to determine if vector (flea) control or vaccination of BTPDs assisted in increasing survival rates. We sampled BTPDs in 2007 (before Y. pestis documentation), 2008 (year of confirmed invasion), and 2009 (after invasion). We estimated annual BTPD re-encounter rates on three 9-ha plots treated annually with deltamethrin dust for flea control and three 9-ha plots lacking dust. In 2007 and 2008, approximately half the adult BTPDs live-trapped were injected subcutaneously with either an experimental plague vaccine (F1-V fusion protein) or placebo formulation; the remaining individuals were not inoculated. From 2007 to 2009, we sampled 1559 BTPDs on 2542 occasions. During 2007-2008, the prevalence and intensity of fleas on BTPDs were 69-97% lower on the dusted vs. no dust plots. From 2007 to 2008, the annual re-encounter rate of non-inoculated BTPDs was 150% higher on the dusted vs. no dust plots. During the same interval on the dusted plots, the re-encounter rate was 55% higher for vaccinated adult female BTPDs vs. nonvaccinated adult females, but the annual re-encounter rate was 19% lower for vaccinated adult males. By late August 2008, BTPDs were nearly extirpated from the no dust plots. During 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 on the dusted plots, which persisted, the BTPD re-encounter rate was 41% higher for vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated adult females but 35% lower for vaccinated adult males. Yersinia pestis erupted with vigor as it invaded. Flea control enhanced BTPD survival but did not offer full protection. Flea control and F1-V vaccination seemed to have additive, positive effects on adult females. Annual re-encounter rates were reduced for vaccinated adult males; additional experimentation is needed to further evaluate this trend.

Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China

The incidence of plague has rebounded in the Americas, Asia, and Africa alongside rapid globalization and climate change. Previous studies have shown local climate to have significant nonlinear effects on plague dynamics among rodent communities. We analyzed an 18-year database of plague, spanning 1998 to 2015, in the foci of Mongolia and China to trace the associations between marmot plague and climate factors. Our results suggested a density-dependent effect of precipitation and a geographic location-dependent effect of temperature on marmot plague. That is, a significantly positive relationship was evident between risk of plague and precipitation only when the marmot density exceeded a certain threshold. The geographical heterogeneity of the temperature effect and the contrasting slopes of influence for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and other regions in the study (nQTP) were primarily related to diversity of climate and landscape types.

Disease and weather induce rapid shifts in a rangeland ecosystem mediated by a keystone species (Cynomys ludovicianus)

Habitat loss and changing climate have direct impacts on native species but can also interact with disease pathogens to influence wildlife communities. In the North American Great Plains, black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are a keystone species that create important grassland habitat for numerous species and serve as prey for predators, but lethal control driven by agricultural conflict has severely reduced their abundance. Novel disease dynamics caused by epizootic plague (Yersinia pestis) within prairie dog colonies have further reduced prairie dog abundances, in turn destabilizing associated wildlife communities. We capitalized on a natural experiment, collecting data on prairie dog distributions, vegetation structure, avian abundance, and mesocarnivore and ungulate occupancy before (2015-2017) and after (2018-2019) a plague event in northeastern Wyoming, USA. Plague decimated black-tailed prairie dog populations in what was then the largest extant colony complex, reducing colony cover in the focal area from more than 10,000 ha to less than 50 ha. We documented dramatic declines in mesocarnivore occupancy and raptor abundance post-plague, with probability of occupancy or abundance approaching zero in species that rely on prairie dogs for a high proportion of their diet (e.g., ferruginous hawk [Buteo regalis], American badger [Taxidea taxus], and swift fox [Vulpes velox]). Following the plague outbreak, abnormally high precipitation in 2018 hastened vegetation recovery from prairie dog disturbance on colonies in which constant herbivory had formerly maintained shortgrass structure necessary for certain colony-associates. As a result, we observed large shifts in avian communities on former prairie dog colonies, including near-disappearance of mountain plovers (Charadrius montanus) and increases in mid-grass associated songbirds (e.g., lark bunting [Calamospiza melanocorys]). Our research highlights how precipitation can interact with disease-induced loss of a keystone species to induce drastic and rapid shifts in wildlife communities. Although grassland taxa have co-evolved with high spatiotemporal variation, fragmentation of the remaining North American rangelands paired with higher-than-historical variability in climate and disease dynamics are likely to destabilize these systems in the future.

Oral Sylvatic Plague Vaccine Does Not Adequately Protect Prairie Dogs (Cynomys spp.) for Endangered Black-Footed Ferret (Mustela nigripes) Conservation

The plague bacterium Yersinia pestis is lethal to endangered black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes, BFF) and the prairie dogs (Cynomys spp., PD) on which they depend for habitat and prey. We assessed the effectiveness of an oral sylvatic plague vaccine delivered in baits to black-tailed PD (Cynomys ludovicianus, BTPD) from 2013 to 2017 on the Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) in northcentral Montana. We permanently marked BTPD on four paired vaccine (N = 1,349 individuals) and placebo plots (N = 926; 7,027 total captures). We analyzed capture–recapture data under a Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to estimate annual apparent survival. Overall, survival averaged 0.05 lower on vaccine plots than on paired placebo plots. Immediately before noticeable die-offs and detecting plague on pairs CMR1 and CMR2, 89% of BTPD sampled on vaccine plots had consumed at least one bait and the immune systems of 40% were likely boosted by consuming baits over multiple years. Survival to the following year was 0.16 and 0.05 on the vaccine plots and 0.19 and 0.06 on the placebo plots for pairs CMR1 and CMR2, respectively. These rates were markedly lower than 0.63, the overall average estimate on those same plots during the previous 3 years. PD populations subjected to such large die-offs would not be expected to sustain a BFF population. An overriding limitation to achieving sufficient protection rests with vaccine delivery constraints. Late summer/fall bait distribution results in the highest bait uptake rates. However, the PD birth pulse each spring can double the size of populations in most years, greatly reducing the proportion of vaccinates in populations and diminishing potential herd immunity benefits. In addition to nonvaccinated juveniles and PD that do not consume bait, incomplete vaccine protection and time required for immunity to develop leaves a large majority of PD populations vulnerable to plague for 6–7 months or more each year.

Utah prairie dog population dynamics on the Awapa Plateau: precipitation, elevation, and plague

Utah prairie dogs (UPDs, Cynomys parvidens) are colonial, herbivorous rodents listed under the Endangered Species Act as threatened. Little is known about UPD population dynamics at higher elevations in the species’ range. From 2013 through 2016, we studied UPDs on five colonies at 2,645 to 2,873 m elevation on the Awapa Plateau, Utah, USA. Primary production increases with precipitation and precipitation increases with elevation on the plateau. We hypothesized that UPD body condition, reproduction, survival, and population growth all would vary directly with precipitation and elevation. Each year, we live-trapped UPDs from late-Jun through Aug, weighing each UPD, aging it as adult or pup, measuring its right hind foot, marking it for unique identification, and releasing it at point of capture. Fleas from live-trapped UPDs and opportunistically collected rodent carcasses, and rodent carcasses themselves, were tested for the agent of sylvatic plague (Yersinia pestis), a lethal invasive pathogen. Adult UPD body condition (mass:foot) increased with elevation. In addition, UPD reproduction (pups:adults) and population growth (λ) increased with precipitation. Annual survival declined from 0.49 in 2013–2014 to 0.24 in 2015–2016. We captured 421 UPDs in 2013 but only 149 in 2016. Sylvatic plague may have contributed to population declines. Notwithstanding, plague detection (yes/no by colony and year) had no statistical effect on population growth or annual survival, raising suspicion about the predictive value of binary plague detection variables. Generally speaking, efforts to conserve UPDs may benefit from the restoration and preservation of large colonies at mesic sites.