Subclinical thyroid dysfunction does not affect one-year mortality in elderly patients after hip fracture: a prospective longitudinal study

Development of machine-learning algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in the elderly with femoral neck fractures based on the HEALTH and FAITH trials

To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making.

Thyroid dysfunction and electrocardiographic changes in subjects without arrhythmias: a cross-sectional study of primary healthcare subjects from Copenhagen

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the present study was to investigate associations of both overt and subclinical thyroid dysfunction with common ECG parameters in a large primary healthcare population.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The study population comprised of primary healthcare patients in Copenhagen, Denmark, who had a thyroid function test and an ECG recorded within 7 days of each other between 2001 and 2011.

DATA SOURCES

The Danish National Patient Registry was used to collect information regarding baseline characteristics and important comorbidities.

OUTCOME MEASURE AND STUDY GROUPS

Common ECG parameters were determined using Marquette 12SL software and were compared between the study groups. The study population was divided into five groups based on their thyroid status. Euthyroid subjects served as the reference group in all analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 132 707 patients (age 52±17 years; 50% female) were included. Hyperthyroidism was significantly associated with higher heart rate and prolonged QTc interval with significant interaction with age (p<0.009) and sex (p<0.001). These associations were less pronounced for patients with higher age. Subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with higher heart rate among females, and a similar trend was observed among males. Hypothyroidism was associated with slower heart rate and shorter QTc but only in women. Moreover, longer P-wave duration, longer PR interval and low voltage were observed in patients with both subclinical and overt hypothyroidism. However, the presence of low voltage was less pronounced with higher age (p=0.001).

CONCLUSION

Both overt and subclinical thyroid disorders were associated with significant changes in important ECG parameters. Age and gender have significant impact on the association of thyroid dysfunction particularly on heart rate and QTc interval.

The impact of social deprivation on mortality following hip fracture in England and Wales: a record linkage study

We used routine hospital data to investigate whether socially deprived patients had an increased risk of dying following hip fracture compared with affluent patients. We found that the most deprived patients had a significantly increased risk of dying at 30, 90 and 365 days compared with the most affluent patients.

INTRODUCTION

To identify whether social deprivation has any effect on mortality risk after emergency admission with hip fracture and to determine whether any increased mortality observed among deprived groups was associated with patient and hospital-related factors.

METHODS

We used routine, linked hospital inpatient and mortality data for emergency admissions with a hip fracture in both England and Wales between 2004 and 2011. Mortality rates at 30, 90 and 365 days were reported. Logistic regression was used to identify any significant increases in mortality with higher levels of social deprivation and the influence of other risk factors on any increased mortality among the most deprived group.

RESULTS

Mortality rates at 30, 90 and 365 days were 9.3, 17.4 and 29.0 % in England and 8.3, 16.1 and 27.9 % in Wales. Social deprivation was significantly associated with increased mortality in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived quintile at 30, 90 and 365 days in England (OR = 1.187, 1.185 and 1.154, respectively) and at 90 and 365 days in Wales (1.135 and 1.203). There was a little interaction between deprivation and other risk factors influencing 30- and 365-day mortality except for patient age, pre-fracture residence and hospital size.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated a positive association between social deprivation and increased mortality at 30 days post-admission for hip fracture in both England and Wales that was still evident at 90 and 365 days. We found little influence of other factors on social inequalities in mortality risk at 30 and 365 days post-admission.

Bone health and clinical results after hip fracture surgery in patients with subclinical hypothyroidism

Background

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction might influence a bone health. We evaluated whether subclinical hypothyroidism adversely affects bone health including bone mineral density (BMD), level of vitamin D, and bone turnover status in patients with hip fracture.

Methods

We evaluated 471 patients aged 50 years or older, who underwent hip fracture surgeries. BMD, level of vitamin D, bone turnover status, and one-year mortality were compared between subclinical hypothyroidism group and control group.

Results

BMD of femur and the level of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D (25-[OH]D) were similar in the two groups. There were no significant differences in bone turnover markers according to thyroid function. No significant differences were observed between the groups in utilization of intensive care unit (ICU), length of hospital stay, mobility, and one-year mortality.

Conclusions

Subclinical hypothyroidism was not associated with reduced bone health, including BMD, the level of 25-(OH)D, and bone turnover marker.

Preoperative thyroid dysfunction predicts 30-day postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip fracture

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the relationship between thyroid function and short-term outcomes in elderly patients undergoing surgery for hip fracture.

METHODS

Patients aged >60 years admitted from July 2009 to June 2010 who underwent surgical fixation of low-energy hip fracture, excluding those with pathological or periprosthetic fracture, were enrolled in a retrospective observational cohort study. Patients were classified as having biochemically overt or subclinical hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism, normal thyroid function, or nonclassifiable state based on preoperative thyroid-stimulating hormone and free thyroxine values. Outcome data were collected from hospital records. Biochemical thyroid dysfunction was not systematically treated. Outcomes measured were length of stay (LOS), 30-day postoperative complications, readmissions, and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 254 patients were analyzed; 64 (25.2%) were male and mean age was 77.8 years. There were 128 (50.4%) patients with euthyroid, 68 (26.8%) nonclassifiable, 13 (5.1%) overtly hyperthyroid, 20 (7.9%) subclinically hyperthyroid, 4 (1.6%) overtly hypothyroid, and 21 (8.3%) subclinically hypothyroid. The 30-day postoperative complication rate was 38% (96 patients). The most common complication was urinary tract infection (12.6%), followed by cardiac events (8.3%) and delirium (5.5%). Patients with overt hyperthyroidism had an increased risk of complications in multivariate analysis (odds ratio 3.75, 95% confidence interval 1.10-12.84). Complications in this group were similar to those in the overall cohort. Thyroid function did not predict LOS, readmissions, or mortality.

CONCLUSION

Older patients frequently develop complications following surgery for hip fractures. This risk appears to be increased by preoperative biochemically overt hyperthyroidism. Further study is warranted to confirm this finding and to determine whether preoperative treatment improves outcomes.

Preoperative predictors for mortality following hip fracture surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hip fractures are always associated with a high postoperative mortality, the preoperative predictors for mortality have neither been well identified or summarised. This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to identify the preoperative non-interventional predictors for mortality in hip fracture patients, especially focused on 1 year mortality.

METHODS

Non-interventional studies were searched in Pubmed, Embase, Cochrane central database (all to February 26th, 2011). Only prospective studies and retrospective studies with prospective collected data were included. Qualities of included studies were assessed by a standardised scale previous reported for observational studies. The effects of individual studies were combined with the study quality score using a previous reported model of best-evidence synthesis. The hazard ratios of strong evidence predictors were combined only by high quality studies.

RESULTS

75 included studies with 94 publications involving 64,316 patients were included and the available observations was a heterogeneous group. The overall inpatient or 1 month mortality was 13.3%, 3-6 months was 15.8%, 1 year 24.5% and 2 years 34.5%. There were strong evidence for 12 predictors, including advanced age, male gender, nursing home or facility residence, poor preoperative walking capacity, poor activities of daily living, higher ASA grading, poor mental state, multiple comorbidities, dementia or cognitive impairment, diabetes, cancer and cardiac disease. We also identified 7 moderate evidence and 12 limited evidence mortality predictors, and only the race was identified as the conflicting evidence predictor.

CONCLUSION

Whilst there is no conclusive evidence of the preoperative predictors for mortality following hip fractures, special attention should be paid to the above 12 strong evidence predictors. Future researches were still needed to evaluate the effects of these predictors.

Hypothyroidism in the elderly: diagnosis and management

Thyroid disorders are highly prevalent, occurring most frequently in aging women. Thyroid-associated symptoms are very similar to symptoms of the aging process; thus, improved methods for diagnosing overt and subclinical hypothyroidism in elderly people are crucial. Thyrotropin measurement is considered to be the main test for detecting hypothyroidism. Combined evaluations of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and free-thyroxine can detect overt hypothyroidism (high TSH with low free-thyroxine levels) and subclinical hypothyroidism (high TSH with normal free-thyroxine levels). It is difficult to confirm the diagnosis of thyroid diseases based only on symptoms, but presence of symptoms could be an indicator of who should be evaluated for thyroid function. The most important reasons to treat overt hypothyroidism are to relieve symptoms and avoid progression to myxedema. Overt hypothyroidism is classically treated using L-thyroxine; elderly patients require a low initial dose that is increased every 4 to 6 weeks until normalization of TSH levels. After stabilization, TSH levels are monitored yearly. There is no doubt about the indication for treatment of overt hypothyroidism, but indications for treatment of subclinical disease are controversial. Although treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism may result in lipid profile improvement, there is no evidence that this improvement is associated with decreased cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in elderly patients. In patients with a high risk of progression from subclinical to overt disease, close monitoring of thyroid function could be the best option.