GlycA Levels Independently Predict Coronary Artery Calcium Incidence and Progression in the ELSA-Brasil Cohort (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health)

Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory disease. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a marker of atherosclerotic disease events and mortality risk. Elevated GlycA, an emerging marker of inflammation, is associated with a higher risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). However, there is conflicting evidence on whether GlycA predicts subclinical CAD progression. We hypothesized that GlycA can predict subclinical CAC incidence/progression in healthy individuals. We included 2,690 ELSA-Brasil cohort participants without cardiovascular/chronic inflammatory disease not receiving statin therapy who had GlycA levels measured and two interval CAC assessments between 2010 through 2018. Multivariable logistic and linear regression models were computed to evaluate GlycA as a predictor of CAC incidence and progression. CAC incidence required a baseline CAC of 0. CAC progression required a baseline CAC > 0. The mean age of participants was 48.6 ± 7.7 years, 56.7% were female, 54.6% and 16.1% (429/2690) were White and Black, respectively. The mean CAC interscan period was 5.1 ± 0.9 years, the mean GlycA level was 414.7 ± 65 μmol/L, and the incidence of CAC was 13.1% (280/2,129). GlycA level odds ratio (OR) for CAC incidence was 1.002 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0005-1.005, p=0.016] adjusted for demographics, lifestyle, a family history of early CAD (≤60 years), lipids, and comorbidities. The GlycA (≤p25 vs ≥p75) OR for CAC progression (Berry definition) was 1.77 (95% CI 1.07-2.96, p=0.03) in a similar multivariable-adjusted model. Higher GlycA levels were associated with CAC incidence and progression in a healthy Brazilian cohort.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Home-Use Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation for the Treatment of a Major Depressive Episode: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is moderately effective for depression when applied by trained staff. It is not known whether self-applied tDCS, combined or not with a digital psychological intervention, is also effective.

Objective

To determine whether fully unsupervised home-use tDCS, combined with a digital psychological intervention or digital placebo, is effective for a major depressive episode.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a double-blinded, sham-controlled, randomized clinical trial with 3 arms: (1) home-use tDCS plus a digital psychological intervention (double active); (2) home-use tDCS plus digital placebo (tDCS only), and (3) sham home-use tDCS plus digital placebo (double sham). The study was conducted between April 2021 and October 2022 at participants' homes and at Instituto de Psiquiatria do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil. Included participants were aged 18 to 59 years with major depression and a Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, 17-item version (HDRS-17), score above 16, a minimum of 8 years of education, and access to a smartphone and internet at home. Exclusion criteria were other psychiatric disorders, except for anxiety; neurologic or clinical disorders; and tDCS contraindications.

Interventions

tDCS was administered in 2-mA, 30-minute prefrontal sessions for 15 consecutive weekdays (1-mA, 90-second duration for sham) and twice-weekly sessions for 3 weeks. The digital intervention consisted of 46 sessions based on behavioral therapy. Digital placebo was internet browsing.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Change in HDRS-17 score at week 6.

Results

Of 837 volunteers screened, 210 participants were enrolled (180 [86%] female; mean [SD] age, 38.9 [9.3] years) and allocated to double active (n = 64), tDCS only (n = 73), or double sham (n = 73). Of the 210 participants enrolled, 199 finished the trial. Linear mixed-effects models did not reveal statistically significant group differences in treatment by time interactions for HDRS-17 scores, and the estimated effect sizes between groups were as follows: double active vs tDCS only (Cohen d, 0.05; 95% CI, -0.48 to 0.58; P = .86), double active vs double sham (Cohen d, -0.20; 95% CI, -0.73 to 0.34; P = .47), and tDCS only vs double sham (Cohen d, -0.25; 95% CI, -0.76 to 0.27; P = .35). Skin redness and heat or burning sensations were more frequent in the double active and tDCS only groups. One nonfatal suicide attempt occurred in the tDCS only group.

Conclusions and Relevance

Unsupervised home-use tDCS combined with a digital psychological intervention or digital placebo was not found to be superior to sham for treatment of a major depressive episode in this trial.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04889976.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Thyroid hormone homeostasis in levothyroxine-treated patients: Findings from ELSA-Brasil

CONTEXT

The effectiveness of levothyroxine (LT4) in restoring thyroid hormone (TH) homeostasis, particularly serum thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3) levels, remains debatable.

OBJECTIVE

To assess TH homeostasis in LT4-treated individuals using data from the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health in Brazil (ELSA-Brasil) study.

METHODS

The ELSA-Brasil study follows 15,105 adult Brazilians (aged 35 to 74 years) over 8.2 years (2008-2019) with 3 observation points assessing health parameters including serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free T4 (FT4), and free T3 (FT3) levels. We analyzed 186 participants that initiated treatment with LT4 during the study, and 243 individuals continuously treated with LT4 therapy.

RESULTS

Initiation of therapy with LT4 resulted in a 11-19% decrease in TSH, a ∼19% increase in FT4, and a 7% reduction in FT3 serum levels (FT3 dropped >10% in ∼40% of the LT4-treated patients). This was associated with an increase in triglyceride levels and utilization of hypolipidemic and anti-diabetic medications. Participants continuously treated with LT4 exhibited a stable elevation in serum FT4 and, a reduction in serum FT3 and TSH levels. While 115 participants (47.3%) had at least one serum FT4 levels above the control reference range (>1.52 ng/dL), 38 participants (15.6%) had at least one serum FT3 below the reference range (<0.23 ng/dL).

CONCLUSION

The present results challenge the dogma that treatment with LT4 for hypothyroidism restores TH homeostasis in all patients. A substantial number of LT4-treated patients exhibit repeated FT4 and FT3 levels outside the normal reference range, despite normal TSH levels. Further studies are needed to define the clinical implications of these findings.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association between branched-chain amino acids and renal function in the ELSA-Brasil study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Epidemiologic studies show high circulating Branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) are associated with excess body weight, impaired fasting glucose, insulin resistance, high blood pressure, and dyslipidemia. There is scarce data on the association between renal function and circulating levels of BCAA. Therefore, we aim to study this association in a sample of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adults (ELSA-Brasil) METHODS: We analyzed participants who had at the baseline BCAA: valine, isoleucine, and leucine measured through nuclear magnetic resonance. The outcomes evaluated were estimated glomerular function (eGFR - CKD-EPI without race) and 12h-albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR). In addition, we built unadjusted and adjusted multivariable linear regression models to investigate the association between the BCAA (total and individual) and eGFR and ACR.

RESULTS

We studied 4912 participants (age 51.7(±9.0) years, 53.4% women, 59.5% White (59.5%), 32.7% hypertension, and 18.2% diabetes). The mean BCAA level was 429.15 ± 87.15. The mean eGFR was 84.95 ± 15 ml/min/1.73 m2, and the median ACR was 6.5 (1.8-4920) mg/g. Descriptive analyses comparing eGFR stratified <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and ACR≥30 mg/g demonstrate that BCAA levels are higher in patients with eGFR<60 and ACR ≥30. Regarding eGFR, an inverse association was detected with BCAA levels when adjusted for demographic variables, and it is not maintained after adjustments for other confounders. Also, a positive association was found for ACR≥30 mg/g, and BCAA levels, and this association is not confirmed after adjustments.

CONCLUSIONS

BCAA levels were inversely associated with eGFR and positively associated with ACR. Further studies are necessary to allow the comprehension of those associations.

Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

METHODS

Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9-42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Carotid intima-media thickness and incident hypertension: the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health

BACKGROUND

High blood pressure (BP) increases carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT). On the other hand, it is not clear whether the vascular abnormalities reflected in high CIMT may predict incident hypertension. The present study aims to investigate the association between CIMT and incident hypertension after 4 years of follow-up in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), a multiethnic sample of middle-aged adults from six Brazilian cities.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 6682 ELSA-Brasil participants (aged 35-74) without hypertension and with complete CIMT data at baseline. After 4 years of follow-up, we describe hypertension incidence, stratifying the sample according to age, sex, and race-specific CIMT quartiles. We also built crude and adjusted Poisson regression models to analyze the association between mean and maximal CIMT values and incident hypertension.

RESULTS

We found incident hypertension in 987 (14.8%) participants. According to mean CIMT quartile groups, hypertension incidence varied from 10.2% (first quartile group) to 22.4% (fourth quartile group; P for trend <0.001). In fully adjusted models, 0.1 mm increments in mean CIMT values were associated with a 16% [relative risk (RR):1.16; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.10-1.21; P  < 0.001] higher risk of incident hypertension, respectively. Results were similar when maximal CIMT values were considered instead of mean CIMT values.

CONCLUSION

CIMT values at baseline strongly predicted incident hypertension after 4 years of follow-up in this large multiethnic cohort. This highlights the relationship between CIMT and BP and may provide important insights into the significance of this ultrasound measurement.

Incident Coronary Calcium Score in Patients With OSA With and Without Excessive Sleepiness: Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty exists about the impact of OSA and its phenotypes on cardiovascular disease.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Are OSA and clinical features such as daytime sleepiness associated with incident subclinical coronary atherosclerosis?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

In this prospective community-based cohort study, we administered a sleepiness questionnaire, actigraphy, and home sleep studies at baseline. Coronary artery calcium (CAC; 64-slice multidetector CT scan imaging) was measured at two different time points throughout the study (baseline, between 2010 and 2014, and follow-up, between 2016 and 2018). Incidence of subclinical atherosclerosis was defined as baseline CAC of 0 followed by CAC of > 0 at a 5-year follow-up visit. The association of incident CAC outcome was assessed using logistic regression. Stratified analyses based on excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) were performed.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1,956 participants with available CAC scores at baseline (mean age, 49 ± 8 years; 57.9% female; 32.4% with OSA). In covariate-adjusted analyses (n = 1,247; mean follow-up, 5.1 ± 0.9 years), we found a significant association between OSA and incidence of subclinical atherosclerosis (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.06-1.48), with stronger effects among those reporting EDS (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.30-2.12; P = .028 for interaction). Interestingly, EDS per se was not associated with any CAC outcome. An exploratory analysis of the square root of CAC progression (baseline CAC > 0 followed by a numerical increase in scores at follow-up; n = 319) showed a positive association for both OSA (β = 1.084; 95% CI, 0.032-2.136; P = .043) and OSA with EDS (β = 1.651; 95% CI, 0.208-3.094; P = .025).

INTERPRETATION

OSA, particularly with EDS, predicts the incidence and progression of CAC. These results support biological plausibility for the increased cardiovascular risk observed among patients with OSA with excessive sleepiness.

Generalisability of and lessons learned from a mixed-methods study conducted in three low- and middle-income countries to identify care pathways for atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Identifying existing care pathways is the first step for understanding how services can be improved to enable early diagnosis and effective follow-up care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, evidence on how care pathways can and should be identified in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To describe generalisability and lessons learned from recruitment and data collection for the quantitative component of a mixed methods study designed to determine the care pathway for atrial fibrillation (AF) in Brazil, China and Sri Lanka.

METHODS

Adults (≥18 years) that spoke the local language and with an AF diagnosis were eligible. We excluded anyone with a hearing or cognitive impairment or ineligible address. Eligible participants were identified using electronic records in Brazil and China; in Sri Lanka, researchers attended the outpatient clinics to identify eligible participants. Data were collected using two quantitative questionnaires administered at least 2-months apart. A minimum sample size of 238 was required for each country.

RESULTS

The required sample size was met in Brazil (n = 267) and China (n = 298), but a large proportion of AF patients could not be contacted (47% and 27%, respectively) or refused to participate (36% and 38%, respectively). In Sri Lanka, recruitment was challenging, resulting in a reduced sample (n = 151). Mean age of participants from Brazil, China and Sri Lanka was 69 (SD = 11.3), 65 (SD = 12.8) and 58 (SD = 11.7), respectively. Females accounted for 49% of the Brazil sample, 62% in China and 70% in Sri Lanka.

CONCLUSIONS

Generalisability was an issue in Brazil and China, as was selection bias. Recruitment bias was highlighted in Sri Lanka. Additional or alternative recruitment methods may be required to ensure generalisability and reduce bias in future studies aimed at identifying NCD care pathways in LMICs.

Life's Essential 8 is associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease but not venous thromboembolism in men: a prospective cohort study

Background: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) shares several risk factors with venous thromboembolism (VTE). The American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7 (LS7), which included seven health and behavioural factors for CVD prevention, has recently been upgraded to Life's Essential 8 (LE8) score. We aimed to examine the prospective association between LE8 and the risks of ASCVD and VTE in Finland.Methods: We utilized data based on 1899 men aged 42-61 years in the Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease (KIHD) prospective study. The LE8 score was generated from baselines measures of four health behaviours (physical activity, diet, nicotine exposure and sleep health) and four health factors (BMI, blood lipids, blood glucose and blood pressure). Each factor was scored from 0 to 100 and summed into a composite score. Participants were classified into quartiles (Q) based on the total LE8 score - Q1, ≤ 420; Q2, >420 to 485; Q3, >485 to 550; Q4, >550. Multivariable Cox regression models were utilized to determine the hazard ratios (HRs) along with the 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ASCVD and VTE.Results: After median follow-up durations of 24 and 25 years, 889 ASCVD and 127 VTE events were recorded, respectively. The risk of ASCVD was found to be 58% lower in men belonging to the highest LE8 quartile compared to those in the lowest quartile (HR:0.42; 95%CI: 0.34-0.51). There was no significant evidence of an association between LE8 and VTE risk (Q4 vs Q1, HR:1.02; 95%CI: 0.60-1.74).Conclusion: The risk of ASCVD was significantly lower in middle-aged and older Finnish men who had a high LE8 score, but there was no significant association with VTE. Further large-scale prospective studies conducted in women and other population groups are necessary to confirm these findings.

The impact of diabetes and subclinical hypothyroidism association with coronary artery calcium: results from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)

Objective

We aimed to analyze the association of diabetes and subclinical hypothyroidism with subclinical atherosclerosis measured by coronary artery calcium (CAC) in the baseline of the ELSA-Brasil study.

Materials and methods

CAC was measured using a 64-detector computed tomographic scanner. The association of CAC > 0 was presented as an odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) in logistic models and as β (95%CI) in linear models after multivariable adjustment for confounders.

Results

We analyzed 3,809 participants (mean-age (SD) 50.5 (8.8); 51.7% women). In the main analysis, we did not find an association of diabetes and subclinical hypothyroidism with CAC. However, in stratified analysis according to age strata, we found no significative interaction terms, an important heterogeneity between the groups, with the younger age strata showing an association of the group with both diseases and CAC > 0 (OR 7.16; 95%CI, 1.14; 44.89) with a wide but significative 95%CI, suggesting that the smaller number of participants in the younger group may influence the results. Our findings also showed an association of CAC > 0 and log (CAC+1) with diabetes in logistic (OR, 1.31; 95%CI, 1.05-1.63) and linear models (β, 0.24, 0.16, 0.40), respectively. Diabetes was independently associated with CAC > 0 in linear models.

Discussion

In conclusion, our results showed a great heterogeneity in stratified analysis based on age in the younger age strata. Although we found no significant interaction factors, the smaller sample size for the analysis may influence the negative findings.

Anaemia and its causes at the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health: a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data

BACKGROUND

Most anaemia studies focus on children and women of childbearing age. We assessed the frequency and main aetiologies of anaemia according to sociodemographic characteristics at the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), a cohort of middle-aged adults.

METHODS

The primary analyses included 15,051 participants aged 35-74 years with a valid blood cell count. We built logistic models to analyse the association between socioeconomic characteristics and anaemia diagnosis. We also described the main aetiologies in a subset (n = 209) of participants with anaemia.

RESULTS

Anaemia was present in 3.0% (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 2.6-3.4%) of men and 7.4% (95%CI: 6.9-8.0%) of women. The frequency of anaemia diagnosis was higher in women in all subgroups except for the oldest age stratum (65-74 years). The frequency of anaemia was particularly high in Blacks (6.0% and 15.5% in men and women, respectively). The most common causes of anaemia were iron deficiency (in women), chronic kidney disease, and chronic inflammation (in men). The frequency of unexplained anaemia was respectively 33.3% and 34.2% for men and women, and this condition was more frequent among participants of Black or Mixed races.

CONCLUSIONS

Anaemia was associated with age, female sex, Black race, and low socioeconomic status. Unexplained anaemia was common and more frequent in individuals of Black and Mixed races. ELSA-Brasil follow-up data may provide further insight into the relevance of unexplained anaemia in this setting.

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.

Findings

Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).

Interpretation

Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Identifying and understanding the care pathway of patients with atrial fibrillation in Brazil and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for stroke. To enable improvements to AF diagnosis and follow-up care, understanding current patient pathways and barriers to optimal care are essential. We investigated the patient care pathways and their drivers, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patient pathways in a middle-income country setting, Brazil.

METHODS

This mixed-methods study in São Paulo, included adults (≥18y) with AF from 13 primary/secondary healthcare facilities. Surveys using baseline, follow-up (administered ≥two months after baseline) and COVID-19 questionnaires (quantitative), and three focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted. Minimum sample size for the quantitative component was 236 and we aimed to reach saturation with at least three FGDs for the qualitative component. Descriptive statistics were used for quantitative data and a content analysis was used for qualitative data to identify themes related to AF diagnosis and follow-up care.

RESULTS

267 participants completed the baseline questionnaire: 25% were diagnosed in primary care, 65% in an emergency or inpatient department. At follow-up (n = 259), 31% visited more than one facility for AF care, and 7% had no follow-up. Intervals between international normalised ratio (INR) tests were increased during the pandemic, and the number of healthcare visits and availability of medication were reduced. Seventeen patients participated in three FGDs and revealed that AF diagnosis often occurred following a medical emergency and patients often delay care-seeking due to misconceptions about AF symptoms. Long waiting times, doctor/patient interactions and health system factors, such as doctor availability and the referral system, influence where participants visited for follow-up care.

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of public awareness and underdeveloped primary healthcare lead to delayed diagnosis, which impacts clinical outcomes and excess patient and healthcare system costs. Health system, care-provider, and pandemic factors disrupt timely and effective continuity of care.

GlycA as a Novel Biomarker of Systemic Inflammation in Hypothyroidism

Background: GlycA is a novel glycoprotein biomarker of systemic inflammation and cardiovascular risk. Our objective was to assess the levels of GlycA in individuals with hypothyroidism. We also explored whether levothyroxine (LT4)-treated patients had different levels of GlycA, with attention to thyrotropin (TSH) levels. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis, using baseline data from the ELSA-Brasil cohort study. We included only participants with serum TSH and GlycA levels measurements, using magnetic resonance spectroscopy (n = 4745). We excluded individuals with endogenous hyperthyroidism and those using drugs impacting thyroid function. Participants not taking LT4 and whose serum TSH was 0.4-4.0 mIU/L were classified as euthyroid (EU) and those with elevated TSH as undiagnosed hypothyroidism (UH). For those on LT4 (n = 345), adequacy of treatment was defined as TSH within the reference range. Those with TSH <0.4 mIU/L were considered over-treated (OT), and those >4.0 mIU/L, under-treated (UT). Both (UT+OT) were considered inadequately treated (IT). Group comparisons were performed by Kruskal-Wallis, adjusted Chi-square, and the post hoc Dunn test. Additional subgroup analysis were performed in patients with circulating thyroperoxidase antibodies (TPO-Ab+). Respective multivariable analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship between thyroid-related variables and GlycA levels (Generalized Linear Model), as well as an abnormal GlycA (>400 μmol/L; Logistic Binary Regression). Results: The prevalence rate of UH was 9.8% (467/4745) and, among those on LT4, only 61.7% (213/345) were adequately treated (AT). GlycA levels were higher in IT in comparison to EU (429 vs. 410 μmol/L, p < 0.01) but did not differ between UH (413 μmol/L) and euthyroidism. However, the subgroup analysis of those TPO-Ab+ showed that not only those with IT, but also those with UH, had higher levels of GlycA in comparison to euthyroidism (423 and 424 vs. 402 μmol/L, p = 0.04). This association between higher levels of GlycA and IT was maintained even in multivariable analysis (odds ratio 1.53, confidence interval 1.03 to 2.31) Lower levels of GlycA were detected in AT (405 μmol/L,) compared with OT (432 μmol/L, 0.04) and UT (423 μmol/L, p = 0.02). Conclusions: Patients with IT, both OT and UT, had higher GlycA levels, which may be associated with low-grade systemic inflammation and, possibly, increased cardiovascular risk.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Combined Association of Novel and Traditional Inflammatory Biomarkers With Carotid Artery Plaque: GlycA Versus C-Reactive Protein (ELSA-Brasil)

Elevated levels of glycoprotein acetylation (GlycA) and C-reactive protein (CRP) have been associated with carotid artery plaque (CAP). However, it is not yet established if elevations in both inflammatory biomarkers provide incremental association with CAP. This study aimed evaluate the cross-sectional association of high CRP and GlycA with CAP at baseline participants from the ELSA-Brasil adult cohort. Participants with information on CRP, GlycA, and CAP with neither previous cardiovascular disease nor CRP >10 mg/L were included. High GlycA and CRP were defined as values within upper quintile and >3 mg/L, respectively. Participants were classified into 4 groups: 1. nonelevated CRP/GlycA (reference group); 2. elevated CRP alone; 3. elevated GlycA alone; and 4. both elevated. The analysis included 4,126 participants with median age of 50 years-old, being 54.2% of women. Prevalence of CAP was 36.1%. Participants with high CRP had the highest frequency of obesity, whereas participants with high GlycA presented higher cardiovascular risk factor burden and were more likely to have CAP than the reference group (odds ratio [OR] 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11 to 1.73), persisting after multivariable adjustment (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.83). Participants with both elevated CRP and GlycA were more likely to have CAP in crude (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.65) but not in adjusted models. The findings suggest potential different biologic pathways between inflammation and carotid atherosclerosis: high GlycA was associated with CAP whereas high CRP was more associated with obesity.

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.

METHODS

Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function defined by the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Reference intervals of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) are statistically defined by the 2·5-97·5th percentiles, without accounting for potential risk of clinical outcomes. We aimed to define the optimal healthy ranges of TSH and FT4 based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality.

METHODS

This systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis identified eligible prospective cohorts through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration, supplemented with a systematic search via Embase, MEDLINE (Ovid), Web of science, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Google Scholar from Jan 1, 2011, to Feb 12, 2017 with an updated search to Oct 13, 2022 (cohorts found in the second search were not included in the IPD). We included cohorts that collected TSH or FT4, and cardiovascular outcomes or mortality for adults (aged ≥18 years). We excluded cohorts that included solely pregnant women, individuals with overt thyroid diseases, and individuals with cardiovascular disease. We contacted the study investigators of eligible cohorts to provide IPD on demographics, TSH, FT4, thyroid peroxidase antibodies, history of cardiovascular disease and risk factors, medication use, cardiovascular disease events, cardiovascular disease mortality, and all-cause mortality. The primary outcome was a composite outcome including cardiovascular disease events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure) and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were the separate assessment of cardiovascular disease events, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality. We performed one-step (cohort-stratified Cox models) and two-step (random-effects models) meta-analyses adjusting for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017057576.

FINDINGS

We identified 3935 studies, of which 53 cohorts fulfilled the inclusion criteria and 26 cohorts agreed to participate. We included IPD on 134 346 participants with a median age of 59 years (range 18-106) at baseline. There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with the composite outcome and secondary outcomes, with the 20th (median 13·5 pmol/L [IQR 11·2-13·9]) to 40th percentiles (median 14·8 pmol/L [12·3-15·0]) conveying the lowest risk. Compared with the 20-40th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for FT4 in the 80-100th percentiles was 1·20 (95% CI 1·11-1·31) for the composite outcome, 1·34 (1·20-1·49) for all-cause mortality, 1·57 (1·31-1·89) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 1·22 (1·11-1·33) for cardiovascular disease events. In individuals aged 70 years and older, the 10-year absolute risk of composite outcome increased over 5% for women with FT4 greater than the 85th percentile (median 17·6 pmol/L [IQR 15·0-18·3]), and men with FT4 greater than the 75th percentile (16·7 pmol/L [14·0-17·4]). Non-linear associations were identified for TSH, with the 60th (median 1·90 mIU/L [IQR 1·68-2·25]) to 80th percentiles (2·90 mIU/L [2·41-3·32]) associated with the lowest risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Compared with the 60-80th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR of TSH in the 0-20th percentiles was 1·07 (95% CI 1·02-1·12) for the composite outcome, 1·09 (1·05-1·14) for all-cause mortality, and 1·07 (0·99-1·16) for cardiovascular disease mortality.

INTERPRETATION

There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with cardiovascular disease and mortality. Low concentrations of TSH were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. The 20-40th percentiles of FT4 and the 60-80th percentiles of TSH could represent the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality, with more than 5% increase of 10-year composite risk identified for FT4 greater than the 85th percentile in women and men older than 70 years. We propose a feasible approach to establish the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function, allowing for better identification of individuals with a higher risk of thyroid-related outcomes.

FUNDING

None.

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.

Findings

In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8-241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7-15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40-2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41-0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5-29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6-45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3-81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6-10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8-39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050.

Interpretation

Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Gender Modulated the Association of Sleep Apnea and Sleep Duration with Arterial Stiffness: The ELSA-Brasil Study

Increased arterial stiffness is independently associated with cardiovascular risk. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and sleep duration (SDUR) may contribute to increased arterial stiffness, but it is unclear whether this association is modulated by gender. We aimed to evaluate the potential impact of gender in modulating the association of OSA and SDUR with arterial stiffness. Participants from the ELSA-Brasil study performed sleep assessments with portable polygraph to define OSA severity and SDUR by 1-week wrist actigraphy. Pulse wave velocity (PWV) was measured using a standard technique without access to the sleep data. We studied 1863 participants (42.2% male, age: 49±8 years, respiratory disturbance index (RDI): 9.9 (4.5-19.4) events/h, SDUR: 6.5 (5.9-7.1) hours, mean PWV: 7.3 ± 1.2 m/s). We found that men had higher PWV, higher frequency of diabetes, and higher blood pressure when compared to women. The regression analysis showed an independent association between increased RDI and PWV in men (ß: 0.007; 95% CI: 0.001-0.012), but not in women. In contrast, an independent association between SDUR and increased arterial stiffness was observed only in women (ß: 0.068; 95% CI: 0.002-0.134). In conclusion, the association of sleep disorders with arterial stiffness showed a distinct gender pattern depending on the sleep variable studied.

Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021-30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050.

Methods

In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model.

Findings

Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535-656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8-8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3-134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4-89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9-67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7-105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1-135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7-557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6-10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3-510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8-6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0-9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI -1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling.

Interpretation

Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Association between carotid intima-media thickness and cognitive decline differs by race

INTRODUCTION

Common carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis and is associated with cognitive decline. Although carotid atherosclerosis is more frequent in White than in Black participants, little is known whether race modifies the association between cIMT and cognitive decline.

METHODS

In this longitudinal analysis of the ELSA-Brasil, we assessed cIMT using ultrasound and cognitive performance using different domain tests. We used linear mixed models, interaction analysis, and race stratified analyses.

RESULTS

Baseline high IMT values were associated with memory (p < 0.001), verbal fluency (p < 0.001), TMT-B (p < 0.001)), and global cognitive decline (p < 0.001). Race was an effect modifier in the association between IMT and global cognitive decline (0.043), with stronger association in White (p < 0.001) than in Black (p = 0.009) participants.

DISCUSSION

Baseline IMT was associated with global and domain-specific cognitive decline and race modified this relationship, with stronger associations in White participants.

HIGHLIGHTS

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) was associated with cognitive decline. cIMT and cognitive decline association was stronger in White than in Black participants. We used inverse probability weighting to address attrition bias.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association between psoriasis and thyroid function: results from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adults Health (ELSA-Brasil)

Objective

To determine the relationship between psoriasis, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4), free triodothyronine (FT3), thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb), and subclinical thyroid dysfunctions in middle-aged and older adults.

Materials and methods

Cross-sectional analyses included a self-reported medical diagnosis of psoriasis and thyroid function from the 3rd visit (2017-2019) of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). TSH, FT4, and FT3 levels were analyzed as continuous variables and quintiles, and TPOAb positivity and subclinical hypothyroidism as a yes/no variable. Logistic regression models were built as crude and adjusted by main confounders (age, sex, education level, race/ethnicity, and smoking).

Results

From 9,649 participants (52.3% women; 59.2 ± 8.7 years old), the prevalence of psoriasis was 2.8% (n = 270). TSH, FT4, TPOAb positivity, and subclinical hypothyroidism were not associated with psoriasis in the main analyses. In the stratified analysis, our findings showed positive associations of the lowest (OR = 2.01; 95% CI 1.05-3.84; p = 0.036) and the highest (OR = 2.13; 95% CI 1.12-4.05; p = 0.022) quintiles of FT4 and a protective association of TPOAb positivity (OR = 0.43; 95% CI 0.19-0.98; p = 0.046) with prevalent psoriasis in women. In the logistic regression for FT3, participants in the 1st quintile showed a statistically significant association with psoriasis for the whole sample (OR = 1.66; 95% CI 1.11-2.46; p = 0.013) and for men (OR = 2.25; 95% CI 1.25-4.04; p = 0.007) in the sex-stratified analysis.

Conclusions

The present study showed that the association of FT4 levels with psoriasis are different according to sex, with a possible U-shaped curve in women but not in men. Although there were some associations of FT3 with psoriasis, they may be a consequence of non-thyroidal illness syndrome. Further prospective data may clarify the association of thyroid function and psoriasis.

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dietary folate intake and its association with longitudinal changes in cognition function

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Folate (vitamin B9) is an essential co-factor for one-carbon metabolism. Controversial evidence has emerged regarding the association between folate and cognitive performance. The aim of the study was to investigate the association between baseline dietary folate intake and cognitive decline in a population exposed to mandatory fortification during a median follow-up of 8 years.

METHODS

Multicenter, prospective cohort study involving 15,105 public servants aged 35-74 years old, both sexes, from The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). Baseline dietary intake was assessed by a Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). Six cognitive tests were performed in the three waves to assess memory, executive function and global cognition. Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess the association between dietary folate intake at baseline and changes in cognition over time.

RESULTS

Data from 11,276 participants were analyzed. The mean (SD) age was 51.7 (9) years, 50% were women, 63% were overweight/obese, and 56% had graduated from college or more. Overall dietary folate intake was not associated with cognitive decline; neither vitamin B12 intake was a modifier of this association. General dietary supplements and specifically multivitamins use did not affect these findings. Natural food folate group was associated with a slower rate of global cognitive decline (β (95% CI): 0.001 (0.000; 0.002), P = 0.015). There was no association between fortified food group and cognition scores.

CONCLUSION

Overall dietary folate intake was not associated with cognitive function in this Brazilian population. However, folate naturally occurring in food sources may slow global cognitive decline.

Association between objective sleep measures and cognitive performance: a cross-sectional analysis in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) study

Sleep disturbances often co-exist, which challenges our understanding of their potential impact on cognition. We explored the cross-sectional associations of insomnia and objective measures of sleep with cognitive performance in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) study stratified by middle-aged and older adults. Participants aged ≥55 years underwent cognitive evaluations, polygraphy for 1 night, and actigraphy for 7 days. Insomnia was evaluated using the Clinical Interview Scheduled Revised. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and short sleep duration (SSD) were defined by an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) of ≥15 events/h and <6 h/ night, respectively. In 703 participants (mean [SD] age 62 [6] years, 44% men), cognition was evaluated using a 10-word list, verbal fluency, and trail-making tests. The frequencies of insomnia, SSD, and OSA were 11%, 24%, and 33%, respectively. In all, 4% had comorbid OSA and insomnia, and 11% had both OSA and SSD. Higher wake after sleep onset (β = -0.004, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.008, -0.001) and the number of awakenings (β = -0.006, 95% CI -0.012, -0.001) were associated with worse verbal fluency performance. Compared to those without insomnia, older participants with insomnia had worse global performance (β = -0.354, 95% CI -0.671, -0.038). Insomnia was an effect modifier in the associations between AHI and executive function performance (p for the interaction between insomnia and AHI = 0.004) and between oxygen saturation <90% and memory performance (p for the interaction between insomnia and oxygen saturation = 0.02). Although some associations between sleep measures and cognition were significant, they should be considered with caution due to the large sample size and multiple testing performed in this study.

Sleep irregularity and the association with hypertension and blood pressure levels: the ELSA-Brasil study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the associations of sleep irregularity with hypertension (HTN) and blood pressure (BP) levels.

METHODS

Adult participants from the ELSA-Brasil performed a clinical evaluation including objective sleep duration (actigraphy), insomnia, and a sleep study for defining obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA). To quantify sleep irregularity, we used two parameters obtained through actigraphy: 7-day standard deviation (SD) of sleep duration and 7-day SD of sleep-onset timing. A multivariate analysis was used to determine the independent associations of sleep irregularity with HTN and SBP/DBP values.

RESULTS

We studied 1720 participants (age 49 ± 8 years; 43.4% men) and 27% fulfilled the HTN diagnosis. After adjustments for age, gender, race, BMI, excessive alcohol consumption, physical activity intensity, urinary sodium excretion, insomnia, objective sleep duration and OSA (apnoea-hypopnoea index ≥15 events/h), we found that the continuous analysis of 7-day SD of sleep duration was modestly associated with prevalent HTN. However, 7-day SD of sleep duration more than 90 min was independently associated with SBP [ β : 1.55; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23-2.88] and DBP ( β : 1.07; 95% CI 0.12-2.01). Stratification analysis excluding participants with OSA revealed that a 7-day SD of sleep duration greater than 90 min was associated with a 48% higher chance of having HTN (OR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.05-2.07). No significant associations were observed for the SD of sleep-onset timing.

CONCLUSION

Objective measurement of sleep irregularity, evaluated by SD of sleep duration for 1 week, was associated with HTN and higher BP levels, especially in participants without OSA.

Serum Uric Acid Levels and Subclinical Atherosclerosis: Results From the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)

High serum uric acid (sUA) has been associated with coronary artery calcium (CAC) and increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in people at high cardiovascular risk. However, association is unclear in apparently healthy individuals. Our study aims to evaluate association between sUA and subclinical atherosclerosis measures: CAC and increased cIMT, in apparently healthy adults enrolled in ELSA-Brasil. A total of 4096 participants without previous coronary artery disease, stroke, and use of urate-lowering drugs, underwent CAC and cIMT assessment. All analyses were stratified by sex. Serum uric acid categorized by quintiles was the exposure variable. Thorough cardiovascular risk factor evaluation was performed, and association between sUA quintiles and CAC and cIMT was analyzed by linear regression using ln(CAC + 1) and cIMT, both as continuous variables. Median age of the sample was 49.0 (44.0-56.0) years (women: 55.1%; 59.1% were white). Mean values of sUA were 6.5 ± 1.4 mg/dL for men, and 4.9 ± 1.2 mg/dL for women. The highest quintile (Q5) of sUA was independently associated with cIMT in women (beta-coefficient: 0.022; 95% CI: 0.007-0.036; P = 0.003) and men (beta-coefficient: 0.020; 95% CI: 0.002-0.038; P = 0.032). Regarding CAC, no association was found: men's Q5 (beta-coefficient: -0.142; 95% CI: -0.436 to 0.153; P = 0.347) and women's Q5 (beta-coefficient: 0.046; 95% CI: -0.152 to 0.245; P = 0.647). In this cohort, the highest sUA quintiles were independently associated with cIMT in both women and men. No association was found between sUA and the presence of CAC.

Abstract P675: GlycA, but Not C-reactive Protein is Associated With Baseline Carotid Artery Plaque in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)

Introduction: Elevated GlycA and C-reactive protein (CRP) are associated with carotid artery plaque (CAP). However, it is not yet established if the presence of both inflammatory biomarkers provides incremental association with CAP.

Objective: We cross-sectionally analyzed the association of high CRP and GlycA with CAP at baseline in the ELSA-Brasil cohort.

Methods: Participants with information on CRP, GlycA, and CAP with no previous cardiovascular disease nor CRP greater than 10mg/L were included. GlycA was measured by nuclear magnetic resonance and values in the upper quintile were defined as high. CRP was measured by immunoassay and defined as high if greater than 3mg/L. Participants were classified into 4 groups: i. non-elevated CRP/GlycA (reference); ii. elevated CRP alone; iii. elevated GlycA alone; and iv. both elevated. The association with CAP was analyzed by logistic regression models and presented in odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) both crude and adjusted for sex, age, ethnicity, education attainment, private health insurance, body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and medical diagnosis of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia.

Results: The analysis included 4,126 participants (50.0 [45.0 - 57.0] median years-old, 54.2% women). The prevalence of CAP, elevated CRP, and elevated GlycA was 36.1%, 25.5%, and 20.1%, respectively. Males showed higher prevalence of CAP than females (42.8% vs. 30.3%, p<0.001), but had lower prevalence of elevated CRP (20.7% vs. 29.6%, p<0.001) and of elevated GlycA (17.1% vs. 22.7%, p<0.001). Comparing groups, participants with high CRP were mostly women and had the highest frequency of obesity, while participants with high GlycA presented with less socioeconomic support and higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factor (CVRF) burden. Participants with CAP were older, mostly men, non-Whites, with low education attainment, current smokers, with high levels of CVRF and GlycA than participants without CAP (p<0.001 for all). Participants with high GlycA were more likely to have CAP than the reference group (OR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.11 - 1.73; p=0.004), even after multivariable adjustment (OR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.84; p=0.038). In contrast, no association was observed between high CRP and CAP (OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.71 - 1.04; p=0.110). Participants with both elevated CRP and GlycA were more likely to have CAP in crude (OR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.10 - 1.65; p=0.003) but not in adjusted model (OR: 1.32; 95% CI: 0.99 - 1.77; p=0.059).

Conclusions: The findings suggest that elevations in different serum markers of inflammation correlate with different disease states, where high GlycA is associated with CAP while high CRP is more associated with obesity.

Abstract P676: Association of Lipoprotein Subfractions With Atherosclerosis in the Baseline Sample of ELSA-Brasil Cohort Study - A Cross-Sectional Analysis

Introduction: The association between lipoprotein subparticles and atherosclerosis is not consistent in literature. For example, it is still unclear whether low-density lipoprotein particles (LDLP), high-density lipoprotein particles (HDLP), and triglyceride-rich lipoprotein particles (TRLP) were associated with carotid artery plaque (CAP) in adult population.

Objective: We analyzed the cross-sectional association of LDLP, HDLP, and TRLP subparticles with CAP at ELSA-Brasil baseline.

Methods: Data from 3801 participants (median age of 50.0[44.0-57.0] years, 54.3% of women) with no previous cardiovascular (CV) disease and without using lipid-lowering medications were analyzed. CAP presence was assessed by ultrasound images, while LDLP (total, large, medium and small), HDLP (total, large, medium and small) and TRLP (total, very large, large, medium, small and very small) were analyzed by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Logistic regression models included all lipoprotein subparticles simultaneously and were adjusted by sociodemographic (age, sex, ethnicity, education, private health insurance) and CV risk factors (body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, family history of CV disease, diabetes, hypertension), with odds ratios (OR) and respective 95% confidence interval according to 1 standard deviation increase in the predictor.

Results: The prevalence of CAP was 33.9% (n=1287). Participants with CAP had higher age (median 55.0 vs. 47.0, p<0.001), higher prevalence of males (55.7% vs. 40.6%, p<0.001), of non-Whites (57.4% vs. 53.7%, p=0.028), and of lower education attainment (22.3% vs. 12.3%, p<0.001), as well as greater burden of CV risk factors than participants without CAP (current smoking [22.1% vs. 14.1%], family history of CV disease [29.7% vs. 23.6%], diabetes [20.1% vs. 11.9%] and hypertension [38.7% vs. 21.8%], p<0.001), LDL-Cholesterol [median 127.3 vs. 115.2, p<0.001] and Triglycerides [median 112.4 vs. 100.5, p<0.001]). Lipoprotein subparticles were majority correlated (p<0.05). Among the lipoprotein classes (total TRLP, LDLP and HDLP), only total LDLP (OR: 1.89 [1.47; 2.44], p<0.001) was associated with CAP. All the LDLP subparticles were associated with CAP: large (OR: 1.64 [1.27; 2.11], p<0.001), medium (OR: 1.38 [1.08; 1.76], p=0.010) and small (OR: 1.58 [1.20; 2.07], p=0.001). The TRLP subparticles of small (OR: 1.42 [1.11; 1.82], p=0.006) and very small size (OR: 1.37 [1.05; 1.79], p=0.022) were also associated with CAP.

Conclusion: The LDLP (large, medium and small) and TRLP (small and very small) were associated with CAP beyond sociodemographic and CV risk factors. This finding is in line with CV risk burden of large LDLP besides small LDLP and highlights a potential role of TRLP in atherosclerosis. However, further investigation between LDLP and TRLP with CAP progression is still needed.

Abstract P104: Association of Thyroid Peroxidase Antibodies and Mortality Risk in Participants of the ELSA-Brasil Cohort Study

Introduction: Thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) has been considered a new indicator of low-grade inflammation. The presence of TPOAb was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases and mortality in previous studies.

Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that there is an association of TPOAb and risk of mortality in middle-aged participants from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil).

Methods: Baseline data of 6,115 men and 7,265 women (median age of 50 years-old) were analyzed. Fasting serum TPOAb levels were determined and categorized as detectable (> 5.00 IU/mL) and positive (≥ 34.00 IU/mL). All-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer-related mortality data up to December 2018 were confirmed by death certificate. The association of TPOAb levels, detectability and positivity with mortality was determined by Cox regression, using hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The final model was adjusted for age, sex, research center, TSH, smoking status, natural log transformed (ln) BMI, alcohol intake, diabetes mellitus, (ln) serum CRP, (ln) serum LDL cholesterol, and hypertension.

Results: After a median follow-up of 9 years, the number of events was 296, 86 and 112 for men, and 182, 50, and 85 for women, for all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer-related mortality, respectively. For men, higher levels of TPOAb were significantly associated with cancer-related mortality (HR: 1.25; CI: 1.00-1.57; p=0.049). There was no association of TPOAb levels with all-cause (HR: 1.07; CI: 0.92-1.25) and cardiovascular (HR: 0.73; CI: 0.50-1.08) mortality risk; neither of TPOAb positivity and detectability with any overall or specific mortality risk (p>0.05). For women, the results showed no significant association of TPOAb levels with all-cause (HR: 1.10; CI: 0.97-1.25), cardiovascular (HR: 1.05; CI: 0.81-1.35), and cancer-related (HR: 1.08; CI: 0.89-1.31) mortality. No significant associations were seen between TPOAb detectability and positivity and mortality risk (p>0.05).

Conclusions: In conclusion, higher levels of TPOAb were associated with a trend for increased risk of cancer-related mortality among men. Despite this interesting association, a longer period of follow-up is necessary to confirm those results. ELSA-Brasil is a cohort with relatively younger participants and low rates of mortality.

Abstract P661: Potential Determinants Are Associated With Thyroid Peroxidase Antibodies Titers in Men and Women Participants of the ELSA-Brasil Study

Introduction: Recently, TPOAb has been highlighted as an indicator of autoimmune diseases in general and low-grade inflammation. However, little is known about the distribution of TPOAb categories according to sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics.

Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that potential determinants are associated with multiple categories of TPOAb in euthyroid individuals, according to sex.

Methods: We analyzed the data of 4,977 males and 5,197 females (median age of 50 years-old), without thyroid diseases, from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) cohort study. Fasting serum TPOAb levels were determined and categorized as undetectable (≤ 5.00 IU/mL), low detectable (5.01-14.99 IU/mL), high detectable (15.00-33.99 IU/mL), and positive (34.00-600.00 IU/mL). Thyrotropin and potential determinants (age, natural log body mass index (lnBMI), self-reported race, education, smoking, and alcohol intake) were also assessed. Adjusted multinomial regression models were applied to determine odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), separately for males and females, using the undetectable TPOAb as reference category.

Results: For males, multivariate analyses showed that higher lnBMI levels were associated with higher odds of having low detectable (OR=2.61, CI=1.13-5.99) and positive (OR=3.11, CI=1.03-9.42) TPOAb. White race and current smokers were associated with low detectable, high detectable, and positive TPOAb (ORs range from 2.05 to 4.58). Participants with higher education were less likely to present TPOAb low and high detectability and positivity, when compared to those with lower education (ORs range from 0.31 to 0.51). Moreover, those with intermediate education and heavy drinkers presented lower odds of TPOAb high detectability (OR=0.58, CI=0.36-0.93) TPOAb positivity (OR=0.52, CI=0.28-0.95), respectively. In the female group, White race and current smokers were associated with higher odds of having low detectable (OR race =2.27, CI=1.71-3.02; OR smoking =5.33, CI=2.32-12.24), high detectable (OR race =2.43, CI=1.78-3.31; OR smoking =11.15, CI=4.80-25.92) and positive (OR race =2.59, CI=1.85-3.63; OR smoking =5.97, CI=2.49-14.33) TPOAb, comparing to non-White race and those that never smoked, respectively. Furthermore, participants with higher and intermediate education, compared to lower education, and heavy drinkers compared to non-drinkers were less likely to present TPOAb detectability and positive (ORs range from 0.23 to 0.47). Age was not significantly associated with TPOAb (p>0.05).

Conclusions: In conclusion, self-reported race, education attainment, smoking status, and alcohol intake were determinants of TPOAb detectability and positivity for euthyroid men and women. Moreover, higher BMI was associated with low detectable and positive TPOAb only for the male sex.

Abstract P662: Thyroid Peroxidase Antibodies is Associated With Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health

Introduction: There is an association between thyroid autoimmunity and the cardiovascular system, however, it remains unclear whether detectability and positivity of thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) could contribute to the development of atherosclerosis.

Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that there is an association of multiple categories of TPOAb with increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in participants from the ELSA-Brasil study.

Methods: This is a cross-sectional study using baseline data of 9651 participants (mean age of 51.5 years-old, 55.8% women), without a history of cardiovascular disease. Fasting serum TPOAb levels were determined (Roche Diagnostics) and categorized as undetectable (≤ 5.00 IU/mL), low detectable (5.01-14.99 IU/mL), high detectable (15.00-33.99 IU/mL), and positive (34.00-600.00 IU/mL). Values of cIMT above the 75th percentile (≥0.68) were classified as “increased cIMT”. We performed logistic regression models, univariate and adjusted (for sex, age, BMI, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and family history of cardiovascular disease), to determine odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results: Increased cIMT was prevalent in 24.4% of our sample, without statistically significant difference among the categories of TPOAb (p=0.066). Compared to undetectable TPOAb, low detectable category was associated with higher odds of having increased cIMT in univariate (OR=1.37, CI= 1.04-1.82) and remained associated after the adjustment for all confounders (OR=1.39, CI= 1.01-1.91). TPOAb high detectability was associated with increased cIMT only in the univariate (OR=1.40, CI= 1.04-1.88) and after adjustment for sex, age and BMI (OR=1.42, CI= 1.02-1.97). No association was seen for TPOAb positivity and cIMT (OR= 1.29, CI= 0.91-1.83).

Conclusions: In conclusion, the modest association of low detectable TPOAb with cIMT may suggest a possible role of TPOAb in the atherosclerotic process.

Association Between Consumption of Ultraprocessed Foods and Cognitive Decline

Importance

Although consumption of ultraprocessed food has been linked to higher risk of cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome, and obesity, little is known about the association of consumption of ultraprocessed foods with cognitive decline.

Objective

To investigate the association between ultraprocessed food consumption and cognitive decline in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a multicenter, prospective cohort study with 3 waves, approximately 4 years apart, from 2008 to 2017. Data were analyzed from December 2021 to May 2022. Participants were public servants aged 35 to 74 years old recruited in 6 Brazilian cities. Participants who, at baseline, had incomplete food frequency questionnaire, cognitive, or covariate data were excluded. Participants who reported extreme calorie intake (<600 kcal/day or >6000 kcal/day) and those taking medication that could negatively interfere with cognitive performance were also excluded.

Exposures

Daily ultraprocessed food consumption as a percentage of total energy divided into quartiles.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Changes in cognitive performance over time evaluated by the immediate and delayed word recall, word recognition, phonemic and semantic verbal fluency tests, and Trail-Making Test B version.

Results

A total of 15 105 individuals were recruited and 4330 were excluded, leaving 10 775 participants whose data were analyzed. The mean (SD) age at the baseline was 51.6 (8.9) years, 5880 participants (54.6%) were women, 5723 (53.1%) were White, and 6106 (56.6%) had at least a college degree. During a median (range) follow-up of 8 (6-10) years, individuals with ultraprocessed food consumption above the first quartile showed a 28% faster rate of global cognitive decline (β = -0.004; 95% CI, -0.006 to -0.001; P = .003) and a 25% faster rate of executive function decline (β = -0.003, 95% CI, -0.005 to 0.000; P = .01) compared with those in the first quartile.

Conclusions and Relevance

A higher percentage of daily energy consumption of ultraprocessed foods was associated with cognitive decline among adults from an ethnically diverse sample. These findings support current public health recommendations on limiting ultraprocessed food consumption because of their potential harm to cognitive function.

Dietary patterns and subclinical atherosclerosis incidence and progression: Results from ELSA-Brasil

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the main cause of disease burden worldwide. Coronary artery calcification (CAC) score is a subclinical atherosclerosis marker able to predict the risk of CVD in asymptomatic patients, and few studies have investigated the association between dietary patterns (DP) and CAC score prospectively. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate the association between baseline DP and CAC score incidence and progression on the ELSA-Brasil cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study is a longitudinal prospective analysis of the ELSA-Brasil participants who underwent a CAC exam on baseline and follow-up (n = 2,824). CAC incidence was defined as a baseline CAC score equal to zero (n = 2,131) and subsequent follow-up CAC score greater than zero. CAC progression was defined according to the Hokanson method for the individuals who presented a CAC score greater than zero at the baseline (n = 639). Dietary data were assessed at the baseline using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), and factor analysis was applied to identify DP. Poisson regression models with robust variance and linear regression models were applied to estimate the association between baseline DP and CAC incidence and progression. The incidence of CAC was 14.6%, while 60.3% of the individuals presented CAC progression. Three DP were identified: convenience, Brazilian traditional, and prudent. We did not find a significant association between baseline DP and CAC incidence or progression.

CONCLUSION

Our findings from this longitudinal prospective analysis showed that baseline DP are not associated with CAC incidence or progression.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes: a systematic review and an individual participant data analysis of prospective cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

Few prospective studies have assessed whether individuals with subclinical thyroid dysfunction are more likely to develop diabetes, with conflicting results. In this study, we conducted a systematic review of the literature and an individual participant data analysis of multiple prospective cohorts to investigate the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of the literature in Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from inception to February 11, 2022. A two-stage individual participant data analysis was conducted to compare participants with subclinical hypothyroidism and subclinical hyperthyroidism vs euthyroidism at baseline and the adjusted risk of developing diabetes at follow-up.

RESULTS

Among 61 178 adults from 18 studies, 49% were females, mean age was 58 years, and mean follow-up time was 8.2 years. At the last available follow-up, there was no association between subclinical hypothyroidism and incidence of diabetes (odds ratio (OR) = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.88-1.17, I2 = 0%) or subclinical hyperthyroidism and incidence of diabetes (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.82-1.30, I2 = 0%), in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Time-to-event analysis showed similar results (hazard ratio for subclinical hypothyroidism: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.87-1.11; hazard ratio for subclinical hyperthyroidism: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.88-1.29). The results were robust in all sub-group and sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the largest systematic review and individual participant data analysis to date investigating the prospective association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and diabetes. We did not find an association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. Our results do not support screening patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction for diabetes.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Evidence is conflicting regarding whether an association exists between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. We therefore aimed to investigate whether individuals with subclinical thyroid dysfunction are more prone to develop diabetes in the long run as compared to euthyroid individuals. We included data from 18 international cohort studies with 61 178 adults and a mean follow-up time of 8.2 years. We did not find an association between subclinical hypothyroidism or subclinical hyperthyroidism at baseline and incident diabetes at follow-up. Our results have clinical implications as they neither support screening patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction for diabetes nor treating them in the hope of preventing diabetes in the future.

Cardiovascular Health and Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter: A Cross-Sectional Study from ELSA-Brasil

BACKGROUND

The association between ideal cardiovascular health (ICVH) status and atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) diagnosis has been less studied compared to other cardiovascular diseases.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association between AFF diagnosis and ICVH metrics and scores in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil).

METHODS

This study analyzed data from 13,141 participants with complete data. Electrocardiographic tracings were coded according to the Minnesota Coding System, in a centralized reading center. ICVH metrics (diet, physical activity, body mass index, smoking, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and total cholesterol) and scores were calculated as proposed by the American Heart Association. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regression models were built to analyze the association of ICVH metrics and scores with AFF diagnosis. Significance level was set at 0.05.

RESULTS

The sample had a median age of 55 years and 54.4% were women. In adjusted models, ICVH scores were not significantly associated with prevalent AFF diagnosis (odds ratio [OR]:0.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]:0.80-1.16; p=0.70). Ideal blood pressure (OR:0.33; 95% CI:0.15-0.74; p=0.007) and total cholesterol (OR:1.88; 95% CI:1.19-2.98; p=0.007) profiles were significantly associated with AFF diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

No significant associations were identified between global ICVH scores and AFF diagnosis after multivariable adjustment in our analyses, at least partially due to the antagonistic associations of AFF with blood pressure and total cholesterol ICVH metrics. Our results suggest that estimating the prevention of AFF burden using global ICVH scores may not be adequate, and ICVH metrics should be considered in separate.

Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE): first steps in the process of the engagement in research projects in Brazil

Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE) – sometimes called Community Engagement and Involvement (CEI) – comes as a big challenge but one that can be very helpful for health care professionals and stakeholders in planning better health policies for attending to the main needs of the community. PPIE involves three pillars: public involvement, public engagement, and participation. Public involvement occurs when members of the general population are actively involved in developing the research question, designing, and conducting the research. Public engagement tells people about new studies, why they are important, the impact of results, the possible implication of the main findings for the community, and the possible impact of these new findings in society, as well as, in the dissemination of knowledge to the general population. Participation is being a volunteer in the study. Our experience with PPIE, to the best of our knowledge the first initiative in Brazil, is a partnership with the University of Birmingham, the University of Liverpool, and the NIHR Global Health Group on Atrial Fibrillation (AF) Management focusing on the AF care pathway exploring the important aspects of diagnosis and treatment in the primary care system from a low-middle income area in São Paulo. The involvement of patients/public in the research represents a new step in the process of inclusion of all segments of our society based on patient illness and the gaps in knowledge aiming to open new horizons for continuous improvement and better acceptance of research projects.

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990-2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.

METHODS

We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure-response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68-4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117-223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49-17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73-17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22-9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81-8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5.

INTERPRETATION

Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone and Thyroid Hormones and Incidence of Diabetes: Prospective Results of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-BRASIL)

Background: There are conflicting data regarding the association of thyroid function with incident diabetes. We prospectively investigated thyrotropin (TSH), free thyroxine (fT4), free triiodothyronine (fT3), and its conversion ratio (fT3:fT4) with the risk of developing diabetes in euthyroid subjects and those with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. Our hypothesis is that this relationship is a U-shaped curve since both subclinical thyroid diseases may be associated with diabetes. Methods: ELSA-Brasil is a highly admixed cohort study of 35-74 years old at baseline (2008-2010). Levels of TSH, fT4, fT3, and fT3:fT4 ratio were evaluated at baseline and incident diabetes was estimated over an 8.2-year follow-up (2017-2019). Diabetes was identified based on medical diagnosis, prescriptions, and laboratory tests. The risk of diabetes was evaluated according to quintiles of TSH, fT4, fT3, and fT3:fT4 ratio using Poisson regression with robust variance presented as relative risk (RR) with confidence interval [CI] of 95% after multivariable adjustment for sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk factors (reference third quintile), and as continuous variables. Results: We included 7948 participants (mean age, 50.2 [standard deviation 8.6] years; 54.4% female): 7177 euthyroid, 726 with subclinical hypothyroidism, and 45 with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Incidence of diabetes was 14.8%. No association was found for TSH, fT4, fT3, and fT3:fT4 ratio quintiles with incident diabetes. Using continuous variables, the increase of 1-unit (1-U) of fT4 decreased the risk of diabetes (RR 0.94 [CI 0.91-0.99]), while the increase of 1-U of the fT3:fT4 ratio increased the diabetes risk (RR 1.37 [CI 1.15-1.63]). The increase of 1-U of fT3 was associated with an increased risk of diabetes, but without significance after multivariable adjustment. In body mass index-stratified analysis, people with overweight or obesity presented a modest significantly higher risk of diabetes in the lowest quintile of fT4 (RR 1.04 [CI 1.01-1.07]) and an inverse association with incident diabetes in the first quintile of fT3:fT4 ratio (RR, 0.95 [CI 0.93-0.98]). The analyses using continuous variables presented similar findings. Conclusion: These findings suggest that fT4 and fT3 levels and the conversion rate might be additional risk factors associated with incident diabetes, especially in the presence of overweight or obesity. However, they need to be confirmed in future studies. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02320461).

A study protocol for an ongoing multi-arm, randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled clinical trial with digital features, using portable transcranial electrical stimulation and internet-based behavioral therapy for major depression disorders: The PSYLECT study

BACKGROUND

Transcranial electrical stimulation (tES) is considered effective and safe for depression, albeit modestly, and prone to logistical burdens when performed in external facilities. Investigation of portable tES (ptES), and potentiation of ptES with remote psychological interventions have shown positive, but preliminary, results.

RESEARCH DESIGN

We report the rationale and design of an ongoing multi-arm, randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled clinical trial with digital features, using ptES and internet-based behavioral therapy (iBT) for major depressive disorder (MDD) (NCT04889976).

METHODS

We will evaluate the efficacy, safety, tolerability and usability of (1) active ptES + active iBT ('double-active'), (2) active ptES + sham iBT ('ptES-only'), and (3) sham ptES + sham iBT ('double-sham'), in adults with MDD, with a Hamilton Depression Rating Scale - 17 item version (HDRS-17) score ≥ 17 at baseline, during 6 weeks. Antidepressants are allowed in stable doses during the trial.

RESULTS

We primarily co-hypothesize changes in HDRS-17 will be greater in (1) 'double-active' compared to 'ptES-only,' (2) 'double-active' compared to 'double-sham,' and (3) 'ptES-only' compared to 'double-sham.' We aim to enroll 210 patients (70 per arm).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results should offer new insights regarding the efficacy and scalability of combined ptES and iBT for MDD, in digital mental health.

ELSA-Brasil: a 4-year incidence of hearing loss in adults with and without hypertension

OBJECTIVE

To compare the incidence of hearing loss among adults stratified by the occurrence of hypertension, and to investigate the association between hypertension and hearing loss.

METHODS

Longitudinal observational study, part of the Estudo Longitudinal da Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil, Longitudinal Study on Adult’s Health). Data from the first and second waves were analyzed, including information from audiological assessment and general health of the subjects. As outcome, we considered the presence of hearing loss (hearing thresholds above 25 dBHL at frequencies from 500 Hz to 8 kHz) and, as exposure variable, hypertension (report of medical diagnosis of hypertension; and/or use of drugs to treat hypertension; and/or pressure systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg; or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mmHg). As covariables for adjustment were considered: sex, age, education, race / ethnicity, income, smoking, diabetes, and occupational exposure to noise. Poisson regression analysis was conducted, estimating the crude and adjusted relative risks, with 95% confidence intervals, in order to assess the factors associated with hearing loss.

RESULTS

In crude analyses, the incidence of hearing loss was higher for subjects with hypertension (9.7% versus 5.4%). The crude relative risks for hearing loss was almost double (1.93; 95%CI: 1.10–3.39) for subjects with hypertension in the right ear. In the adjusted analyses, the relative risks was not significant for the hypertension variable (1.42; 95%CI: 0.75–2.67). Being 60 years or older (RR: 5.41; 95%CI: 2.79–10.50) showed a statistically significant association with hearing loss, indicating that older adults have higher relative risks for hearing loss.

CONCLUSION

In the adjusted analyses controlled for multiple risk factors there was no association between hypertension and hearing loss. The dichotomous variable age (being 60 years or older), on the other hand, has shown a significant association with hearing loss.

Chronic inflammatory diseases, subclinical atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular diseases: Design, objectives, and baseline characteristics of a prospective case-cohort study ‒ ELSA-Brasil

OBJECTIVES

This analysis describes the protocol of a study with a case-cohort to design to prospectively evaluate the incidence of subclinical atherosclerosis and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) in Chronic Inflammatory Disease (CID) participants compared to non-diseased ones.

METHODS

A high-risk group for CID was defined based on data collected in all visits on self-reported medical diagnosis, use of medicines, and levels of high-sensitivity C-Reactive Protein >10 mg/L. The comparison group is the Aleatory Cohort Sample (ACS): a group with 10% of participants selected at baseline who represent the entire cohort. In both groups, specific biomarkers for DIC, markers of subclinical atherosclerosis, and CVD morbimortality will be tested using weighted Cox.

RESULTS

The high-risk group (n = 2,949; aged 53.6 ± 9.2; 65.5% women) and the ACS (n=1543; 52.2±8.8; 54.1% women) were identified. Beyond being older and mostly women, participants in the high-risk group present low average income (29.1% vs. 24.8%, p < 0.0001), higher BMI (Kg/m2) (28.1 vs. 26.9, p < 0.0001), higher waist circumference (cm) (93.3 vs. 91, p < 0.0001), higher frequencies of hypertension (40.2% vs. 34.5%, p < 0.0001), diabetes (20.7% vs. 17%, p = 0.003) depression (5.8% vs. 3.9%, p = 0.007) and higher levels of GlycA a new inflammatory marker (p < 0.0001) compared to the ACS.

CONCLUSIONS

The high-risk group selected mostly women, older, lower-income/education, higher BMI, waist circumference, and of hypertension, diabetes, depression, and higher levels of GlycA when compared to the ACS. The strategy chosen to define the high-risk group seems adequate given that multiple sociodemographic and clinical characteristics are compatible with CID.