Coexistence of large mammals and humans is possible in Europe's anthropogenic landscapes

Perspectives on wolves after their recolonization in Flanders, Belgium

At the time of the wolf's (Canis lupus) recolonization in Flanders, public perspectives on this species were not well understood. To address this gap, we conducted a survey gathering demographic and contextual data to explore the relationship between these factors and public perspectives on wolves. We defined perspectives as: attitudes towards wolves, perceptions as whether they belong in Belgium, their mode of arrival, and attitudes towards wolf-related conflicts. Using redundancy analysis, we identified key explanatory variables, including hunting, residency, education, age, gender and dog ownership. Although these factors were significantly associated with perspectives on wolves, their explanatory power was limited, except for being a hunter. Notably, hunters generally had negative perspectives on wolves; however, hunters who stated they had negative attitudes towards hunting showed more positive perspectives on wolves. Conversely, non-hunters with positive attitudes towards hunting showed more negative perspectives. Attitudes towards hunting emerged as the strongest explanatory variable and may serve as a useful proxy for researchers studying wolf perspectives. Recognizing the diversity of stakeholder perspectives, particularly attitudes towards hunting, and underlying ethics could enhance the effectiveness of wolf conservation management.

Environmental variability across space and time drives the recolonization pattern of a historically persecuted large carnivore

Wildlife populations are not static. Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect individuals, which lead to spatiotemporal variation in population density and range. Yet, dynamics in density and their drivers are rarely documented, due in part to the inherent difficulty of studying long-term population-level phenomena at ecologically meaningful scales. We studied the spatiotemporal density dynamics in a recolonizing large carnivore population, the wolverine Gulo gulo, across the Scandinavian Peninsula over nine years. We fitted open-population spatial capture-recapture models to noninvasive genetic sampling data collected across Norway and Sweden to estimate annual density surfaces and their drivers. This approach allowed us to model sex-specific changes in wolverine density and the effect of landscape-level environmental determinants over time. Our results revealed that, as wolverines successfully recolonized many parts of their historical range in Scandinavia, the relationship with spatial determinants of density has changed over time. We also found support for sex-specific responses of the Scandinavian wolverine to the environmental determinants of density and differences in the temporal dynamics of their relationships, indicating disproportionate recolonization ability and anthropogenic pressures. We observed significant changes in the relationship of female wolverine density with several determinants during the study period, suggesting still ongoing expansion of female wolverines whereas males might have already reached the range limits. These findings show that the Scandinavian wolverine population is still recovering from centuries of persecution and severe range contraction. Our study sheds light on the dynamics and challenges of recolonizing large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes across time and space.

Coexisting with large carnivores based on the Volterra principle

Coexistence with large carnivores represents one of the world's highest profile conservation challenges. Ecologists have identified ecological benefits derived from large carnivores (and large herbivores), yet livestock depredation, perceived competition for shared game, risks to pets and humans, and social conflicts often lead to demands for reduction of predator numbers from a range of stakeholder groups. Nearly 100 years ago, Vito Volterra predicted that increased mortality on both prey and predators results in increased abundance of prey and decreased abundance of predators. This principle appears to be robust and often consistent with the objectives of wildlife management. Although seldom recognized, and rarely tested in the field, the Volterra principle is a fundamental outcome of ecological theory with important implications for conservation.

Living with wolves: A worldwide systematic review of attitudes

This systematic review of peer reviewed articles on attitudes towards gray wolves (Canis lupus), shows that attitudes are mainly measured either by mean values of attitudes or by proportional differences in attitudes. This may impact on how attitudes are perceived and interpreted across studies and areas. However, independent of method used, we found that people living in areas where wolves always have existed, are more negative towards wolves compared to people living in areas where there are no wolves, or where wolves have recovered after years of absence. People who express fear, or being directly affected by having wolves, such as farmers and hunters, report more negative attitudes compared to other groups of respondents. For wolf conservation we recommend politicians and management authorities to prepare local societies of the different consequences of living in wolf areas. We recommend using dialogues and conflict management methods to minimize the level of conflicts.

Future changes in society and climate may strongly shape wild large-herbivore faunas across Europe

Restoring wild communities of large herbivores is critical for the conservation of biodiverse ecosystems, but environmental changes in the twenty-first century could drastically affect the availability of habitats. We projected future habitat dynamics for 18 wild large herbivores in Europe and the relative future potential patterns of species richness and assemblage mean body weight considering four alternative scenarios of socioeconomic development in human society and greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP5-RCP8.5). Under SSP1-RCP2.6, corresponding to a transition towards sustainable development, we found stable habitat suitability for most species and overall stable assemblage mean body weight compared to the present, with an average increase in species richness (in 2100: 3.03 ± 1.55 compared to today's 2.25 ± 1.31 species/area). The other scenarios are generally unfavourable for the conservation of wild large herbivores, although under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario there would be increase in species richness and assemblage mean body weight in some southern regions (e.g. + 62.86 kg mean body weight in Balkans/Greece). Our results suggest that a shift towards a sustainable socioeconomic development would overall provide the best prospect of our maintaining or even increasing the diversity of wild herbivore assemblages in Europe, thereby promoting trophic complexity and the potential to restore functioning and self-regulating ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Large-Scale Sheep Losses to Wolves (Canis lupus) in Germany Are Related to the Expansion of the Wolf Population but Not to Increasing Wolf Numbers

Recovery of predator populations triggers conflicts due to livestock depredation losses, particularly in Germany where the wolf (Canis lupus) population grows exponentially and livestock (especially sheep) losses raise public concerns and motivate the authorities to control wolf numbers. Yet, the effects of wolf numbers and alternative factors, such as abundance of prey and livestock, on livestock losses in this country are not investigated. In this study, we collected and analyzed data on the numbers of reproductive units of wolves (packs and pairs together) as a surrogate of adult wolf numbers, sheep killed by wolves, living sheep, red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and wild boar (Sus scrofa) in every German state and year from 2002 to 2019. We applied a negative binomial Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to estimate the effects of these predictors on the numbers of sheep killed by wolves. We also examined the relationships between the percentages of killed/living sheep and the numbers of living sheep. Ranking of 63 models based on the Akaike information criterion revealed that sheep losses were determined by state, year, and number of living sheep, not by wolf numbers, at high precision and accuracy. The number of sheep killed by wolves increased consistently by 41% per year and by 30% for every additional 10,000 sheep, mainly in the north where most wolf territories are concentrated. This means that sheep are protected insufficiently and/or ineffectively. The percentages of killed/living sheep consistently increased by 0.02–0.05% per state and year, with the maximum percentage of 0.7%, on a backdrop of decreasing numbers of living sheep. In conclusion, we demonstrate that sheep losses in Germany have been driven by the expansion of the wolf population, not by wolf numbers, and by the number of sheep available. We suggest that Germany’s wolf conservation policy should focus on alternative non-lethal interventions, enforcement and standardization of intervention monitoring, and promotion of wolf tolerance rather than on lethal control of wolf population size.