Compound events and associated impacts in China

Differential responses of vegetation phenology to climatic elements during extreme events on the Chinese loess plateau

Extreme, dry events have major impacts on vegetation phenology worldwide. However, the differential responses of vegetation phenology to climatic elements during these extreme events remain unclear. We investigated the response of vegetation phenology to climatic factors during extreme events in arid and semi-arid regions of the Chinese Loess Plateau, using the climate water deficit method, to identify extremely dry and wet events. The results revealed that extremely wet events extended the vegetation growth periods in addition to global warming, whereas extremely dry events did not completely counteract this effect. During different extreme events, phenological changes in vegetation on the Loess Plateau were primarily influenced by the interactive effects of climatic factors. During extremely dry events, a 100 mm increase in precipitation advanced the start of the season by 3.0, 9.2, and 16.7 days in forest, shrubland, and grassland, respectively. During extremely wet events, a 1 °C rise in temperature delayed the end of the season by 1.6, 0.6, and 3.8 days in forest, shrubland, and grassland, respectively. These findings provide crucial guidance for improving predictions of plant phenology changes under extreme climatic events and unraveling biosphere-atmosphere feedback cycles.

Management of resilient urban integrated energy system: State-of-the-art and future directions

The urban integrated energy system (UIES) is the fundamental infrastructure supporting the operation of resilient cities. The resilience of UIES plays a critical role in effectively responding to extreme events. We provide a comprehensive review on the management of resilient UIES. Firstly, we examine the existing studies on the resilience of UIES through quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Secondly, it points out that the coupling characteristics of UIES have a dual impact on resilience. The definition of UIES resilience can be understood from three perspectives, namely partial resilience versus total resilience, physical resilience versus digital resilience, and current resilience versus future resilience. Thirdly, this review summarizes the strategies for improving the resilience of UIES across three distinct stages, namely before, during, and after extreme events. The resilience of UIES can be enhanced by effective measures to prediction, adaptation, and assessment. Finally, the challenges faced by management of resilient UIES are presented and discussed, in terms of mitigating compound risks, modeling complex systems, addressing data collection and quality issue, and collaborating within multi stakeholders.

The characteristic of compound drought and saltwater intrusion events in the several major river estuaries worldwide

Compound Drought and Saltwater intrusion Events (CDSEs) refer to hydrologic drought and saltwater intrusion occurring simultaneously or consecutively in estuaries, and exacerbate the negative impacts resulting from an individual extreme event. CDSEs have been drawing increasing attention due to their potential adverse impacts on water resources, crop production, and food security. A new Standardized compound Drought and Saltwater intrusion Index (SDSI) was developed in this study to systematically detect changes in the severity of CDSEs in six estuaries (Little Back, Ebro, Rhine, Orange, Pearl River and Murray). The results illustrated that (1) compared to the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), SDSI effectively characterizes and quantifies the occurrences and severity of CDSEs in major river estuaries worldwide. (2) Temporally, the SDSI trend varied across estuaries. Specifically, a decreasing trend was observed in the Little Back, Ebro, and Orange estuaries, with corresponding Zs values of -2.43, -3.63, and -3.23. (3) Spatially, moderate CDSEs occurred more frequently among different estuaries, and their frequency, duration and severity varied in different estuaries. Notably, Ebro, Rhine and Murray River estuaries had the highest probability of CDSEs, nearing 60%. Among them, the Murray Estuary had the longest average duration, spanning 7.68 months, and the highest severity was 5.94. (4) According to the contributions analysis, saltwater intrusion plays a dominant role in influencing SDSI severity, accounting for a substantial percentage (54%-95.30%) compared to runoff. Notably, the Orange Estuary experienced the greatest impact from saltwater intrusion (81.54%-95.30%), while the Murray Estuary had relatively equal contributions from hydrological drought and saltwater intrusion.

Extreme low-temperature events can alleviate micronutrient deficiencies while increasing potential health risks from heavy metals in rice

Despite global warming, extreme low-temperature stress (LTS) events pose a significant threat to rice production (especially in East Asia) that can significantly impact micronutrient and heavy metal elements in rice. With two billion people worldwide facing micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) and widespread heavy metal pollution in rice, understanding these impacts is crucial. We conducted detailed extreme LTS experiments with two rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivars (Huaidao 5 and Nanjing 46) grown under four temperature levels (from 21/27 °C to 6/12 °C) and three LTS durations (three, six, and nine days). We observed significant interaction effects for LTS at different growth stages, durations and temperature levels on the contents and accumulation of mineral elements. The contents of most mineral elements (such Fe, Zn, As, Cu, and Cd) increased significantly under severe LTS at flowering, but decreased under LTS at the grain-filling stage. The accumulations of all mineral elements decreased at the three growth stages under LTS due to decreased grain weight. The contents and accumulation of mineral elements were more sensitive to LTS at the peak flowering stage than at the other two stages. Furthermore, the contents of most mineral elements in Nanjing 46 show larger variation under LTS compared to Huaidao 5. Accumulated cold degree days (ACDD, °C·d) were found to be suitable for quantifying the effects of LTS on the relative contents and accumulations of mineral elements. LTS at the flowering stage will help alleviate MNDs, but may also increase potential health risks from heavy metals. These results provide valuable insights for evaluating future climate change impacts on rice grain quality and potential health risks from heavy metals.

Correcting biases in regional climate model boundary variables for improved simulation of high-impact compound events

Although climate models have been used to assess compound events, the combination of multiple hazards or drivers poses uncertainties because of the systemic biases present. Here, we investigate multivariate bias correction for correcting systemic bias in the boundaries that form the inputs of regional climate models (RCMs). This improves the representation of physical relationships among variables, essential for accurate characterization of compound events. We address four types of compound events that result from eight different hazards. The results show that while the RCM simulations presented here exhibit similar performance for some event types, the multivariate bias correction broadly improves the RCM representation of compound events compared to no correction or univariate correction, particularly for coincident high temperature and high precipitation. The RCM with uncorrected boundaries tends to produce a negative bias in the return period of these events, suggesting a tendency to over-simulate compound events with respect to observed events.

Anthropogenic climate change exacerbates the risk of successive flood-heat extremes: Multi-model global projections based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

The successive flood-heat extreme (SFHE) event, which threatens the securities of human health, economy, and building environment, has attracted extensive research attention recently. However, the potential changes in SFHE characteristics and the global population exposure to SFHE under anthropogenic warming remain unclear. Here, we present a global-scale evaluation of the projected changes and uncertainties in SFHE characteristics (frequency, intensity, duration, land exposure) and population exposure under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 6.0 scenarios, based on the multi-model ensembles (five global water models forced by four global climate models) within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project 2b framework. The results reveal that, relative to the 1970-1999 baseline period, the SFHE frequency is projected to increase nearly globally by the end of this century, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (>20 events/30-year) and the tropical regions (e.g., northern South America, central Africa, and southeastern Asia, >15 events/30-year). The projected higher SFHE frequency is generally accompanied by a larger model uncertainty. By the end of this century, the SFHE land exposure is expected to increase by 12 % (20 %) under RCP2.6 (RCP6.0), and the intervals between flood and heatwave in SFHE tend to decrease by up to 3 days under both RCPs, implying the more intermittent SFHE occurrence under future warming. The SFHE events will lead to the higher population exposure in the Indian Peninsula and central Africa (<10 million person-days) and eastern Asia (<5 million person-days) due to the higher population density and the longer SFHE duration. Partial correlation analysis indicates that the contribution of flood to the SFHE frequency is greater than that of heatwave for most global regions, but the SFHE frequency is dominated by the heatwave in northern North America and northern Asia.

Addressing path dependencies in decision-making processes for operationalizing compound climate-risk management

The need for a compound risk governance system and management practice is argued in this paper. We find that, historically, risk management strategies have been developed for single hazards and are often subject to path dependency. It is thus difficult to adapt them to a situation that has compound risks. The lack of attention to compound risks in current risk management practices often leads to potential side effects-positive or negative-on other risks and can also result in related management strategies being overlooked. This can ultimately cause barriers to larger transformational adaptation efforts and lead to the intensification of existing societal inequalities or to the creation of new ones. To alert policy- and decision-makers to the need to move toward compound-risk management strategies, we argue that risk management must explicitly highlight various elements of path dependencies, the positive and negative side effects of single-hazard risk management, the appearance of new social inequalities, and the intensification of existing ones.

Regional thermal environment changes: Integration of satellite data and land use/land cover

Land surface temperature (LST) is subject to location and environmental influences, which makes quantification difficult in terms of timeliness. Based on 10-d geostationary satellite LST TCI products, we quantitatively evaluated the thermal environment differentiation of various ground objects in North, South, and Northwest China from 2017 to 2021. We found that the thermal condition index (TCI) in Northwest China decreased, whereas it increased in North and South China. In contrast, Moran's I index increased in Northwest and South China, with strong spatial agglomeration. The TCI for artificial surfaces decreased from North (0.633) to Northwest (0.554) and South China (0.384). The bare land TCI was always the lowest among the land use/land cover (LULC) types in each region. Our results reflect the LULC thermal environment of China against the background of new urbanization and provide theoretical support for scientific planning to improve the ecological environment.