Suicide time-series structural change analysis in Portugal (1913-2018): Impact of register bias on suicide trends

Cluster analysis of suicidal ideation and influencing factors among Spanish teachers

Suicidal ideation signals a higher suicide risk, particularly among teachers, affecting their well-being and impacting student development and academic success. This study, the first to use standardized measures with Spanish teachers, examines suicidal ideation among 1,251 educators from 107 schools. It analyzes suicidal thoughts and their associated risk and protective factors using a cross-sectional design. Results show an 18.86% prevalence of suicidal ideation, with 12.39% occurring in females. Anxiety and depression may act as risk factors, while emotional intelligence and resilience might serve as protective factors in identifying teachers with and without suicidal thoughts. The analyses identified four clusters based on suicidal ideation severity and psychological traits, indicating a need for enhanced targeted interventions. Main limitations include the cross-sectional design, reliance on self-reported data, and the lack of a broader perspective on sociocultural variables. Evidence highlights the need for tailored interventions to reduce teachers' suicidal thoughts and improve their well-being.

Understanding the Fluctuations in Korea's Suicide Rates: A Change-Point Analysis and Interrupted Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

Korea has witnessed significant fluctuations in its suicide rates in recent decades, which may be related to modifications in its death registration system. This study aimed to explore the structural shifts in suicide trends, as well as accidental and ill-defined deaths in Korea, and to analyze the patterns of these changes.

METHODS

We analyzed age-adjusted death rates for suicides, deaths due to transport accidents, falls, drowning, fire-related incidents, poisonings, other external causes, and ill-defined deaths in Korea from 1997 to 2021. We identified change-points using the 'breakpoints' function from the 'strucchange' package and conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess trends before and after these change-points.

RESULTS

Korea's suicide rates had three change-points in February 2003, September 2008, and June 2012, characterized by stair-step changes, with level jumps at the 2003 and 2008 change-points and a sharp decline at the 2012 change-point. Notably, the 2003 and 2008 spikes roughly coincided with modifications to the death ascertainment process. The trend in suicide rates showed a downward slope within the 2003-2008 and 2008-2012 periods. Furthermore, ill-defined deaths and most accidental deaths decreased rapidly through several change-points in the early and mid-2000s.

CONCLUSION

The marked fluctuations in Korea's suicide rate during the 2000s may be largely attributed to improvements in suicide classification, with potential implications beyond socio-economic factors. These findings suggest that the actual prevalence of suicides in Korea in the 2000s might have been considerably higher than officially reported.

Perinatal Depression and Risk of Suicidal Behavior

Importance

Suicidal ideation is common among women with perinatal depression (PND). However, prospective data are limited on the risk, particularly long-term risk, of suicidal behavior (suicide attempt and completed suicide) among women with perinatal depression.

Objective

To examine the association between PND and risk of short- and long-term suicidal behavior.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A nationwide population-matched cohort study was conducted in Sweden including 86 551 women with PND from 2001 to 2017 and 865 510 unaffected women individually matched on age and calendar year at delivery. Sibling comparison was used to account for familial confounding. Data were analyzed from January 2022 to November 2023.

Exposure

PND was identified through depression diagnosis or filled prescriptions of antidepressants from pregnancy to 1 year post partum in registers.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All women were followed up for the first event of suicidal behavior recorded in registers. Hazard ratios (HR) of suicidal behavior were estimated using time-to-event analysis.

Results

Women with PND (86 551 participants) received a diagnosis at a mean (SD) age of 30.67 (5.23) years. During a median (IQR) follow-up of 6.91 (3.62-10.88) years, 3604 events of suicidal behavior (incidence rate [IR], 5.62 per 1000 person-years) were identified among women with PND and 6445 (IR, 1.01 per 1000 person-years) among population-unaffected women. Women with PND had an elevated risk of suicidal behavior when compared with matched unaffected women (HR, 3.15; 95% CI, 2.97-3.35). Comparable, albeit somewhat attenuated, associations were yielded when comparing PND women with their PND-free sisters (HR, 2.75; 95% CI, 2.10-3.61). In the population-matched cohort, the association was greater for postnatal depression and among women without a history of psychiatric disorders. The excess risk was pronounced during the first year after diagnosis (HR, 7.20; 95% CI, 6.07-8.54), yet remained statistically significant during 5 to 18 years of follow-up (HR, 2.34; 95% CI, 2.12-2.57).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this nationwide cohort study, women with PND were at an increased risk of suicidal behavior, particularly within the first year after diagnosis with persistent risk elevations throughout the 18 years of follow-up, highlighting the need for vigilant clinical monitoring of this vulnerable group.

Suicide mortality in Portugal after 4 mediatized suicides from 1996 to 2020

Many international studies describe a relation between prominent and sensational suicide reporting and subsequent rises in suicide rates - the Werther effect -, especially when involving celebrities, but that relation has never been investigated in Portugal. In this article, we intend to examine whether there were increases in suicides in Portugal in the 3 and 5 months following four national mediatized suicides, including a triple youth suicide and the suicides of two famous entertainment celebrities and a well-known journalist. We used monthly suicide count data for Portugal from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) for the period of January 1990 to December 2020, stratified by sex, method, and age group. We conducted a Poisson regression model to determine if there were changes in suicide mortality in the 3 and 5 months after the selected suicides. We found statistically significant increases in total, male, and same age group suicides after the death of actor Pedro Lima and a rise in total, female, same age group, and poisoning suicides following the death of singer Cândida Branca Flor. However, in the latter case, the rises coincide with a major change in the suicide counting system. No such statistically significant increases in suicides were found in the months following the other two suicide cases, either by method, sex, or age group. Our findings show that the Werther Effect appears to occur in some, but not all, cases of mediatized suicides in Portugal, but these results should be considered amid several contextual factors. They provide an opportunity to alert media professionals to the importance of making suicide reporting in Portugal more responsible.

Trends in suicide mortality in Spain, 2000-2019: Moderation by foreign-born status

BACKGROUND

Suicide rates in Spain remained stable during the early 21st century. Suicide rates among specific socially vulnerable groups, however, remain unknown, and there are no data on suicide mortality rates and trends among migrants living in Spain.

METHODS

We analyzed Spain's 2000-2019 suicide mortality data by migration status (native- vs. foreign-born), examining crude and age-standardized rates and trends overall and by sex, age-group, suicide method, Spanish citizenship status, and country of origin, using joinpoint regression models.

RESULTS

Annual crude suicide mortality rates were higher among native- than foreign-born individuals (9.2 versus 6.2 por 100.000 inhabitants, respectively). While suicide rates decreased among native-born men and remained roughly stable among native-born women - with slight decreases among older native-born women, they increased after 2010 among foreign-born men aged 15-44 and ≥65 years and foreign-born women aged ≥65 years. Increases in suicide trends among foreign-born residents in Spain were largely driven by increases specific to individuals without Spanish citizenship.

LIMITATIONS

Suicide mortality data are subject to potential errors due to underreporting of suicide in death certificates CONCLUSIONS: Between 2010-2019, suicide in Spain increased only among foreign-born residents. These findings should enhance our understanding of the dynamics and potential actionable causes of suicide among migrants living in Spain.

Trends in drowning mortality in Portugal from 1992 to 2019: comparing Global Burden of Disease and national data

INTRODUCTION

Imprecise data systems hinder understanding of drowning burden, even in high-income countries like Portugal, that have a well-implemented death certificate system. Consequently, national studies on drowning mortality are scarce. We aimed to explore drowning mortality in Portugal using national data and to compare these to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) for 1992-2019, using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 and ICD-10 codes, by sex, age group and cause (unintentional; water transport and intentional). GBD unintentional drowning data were obtained online. Age-standardised drowning rates were calculated and compared.

RESULTS

INE data showed 6057 drowning deaths, 4327 classified as unintentional (75.2% male; 36.7% 35-64 years; 31.5% 65+years; 15.2% 0-19 years). Following 2001, an increase in accidental drowning mortality and corresponding decrease in undetermined intent was observed, coincident with Portugal's ICD-10 implementation. GBD modelled estimates followed a downward trend at an overall rate of decrease of -0.41/decade (95% CI (-0.45 to -0.37); R² _adj=0.94; p<0.05). Conversely, INE data showed an increase in the rate of drowning deaths over the last decade (0.35/decade; 95% CI (-0.18 to 0.89)). GBD estimates were significantly different from the INE dataset (alpha=0.05), either underestimating as much as 0.567*INE in 1996 or overestimating as much as 1.473*INE in 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

While GBD mortality data estimates are valuable in the absence of routinely collected data, they smooth variations, concealing key advocacy opportunities. Investment in country-level drowning registries enables in-depth analysis of incident circumstances. Such data are essential to informing National Water Safety Plans.