Predictive analysis of Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) distribution in South Korea using CLIMEX software

Predicting suitable areas for Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) under climate change and implications for management

Climate change is a prominent factor reshaping the distribution of invasive species. Metcalfa pruinosa (Say 1830) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), native to North America, has invaded other continents and poses a serious threat to various agricultural crops and the human residential environment. Understanding the distribution of M. pruinosa based on climatic conditions is a critical first step to prevent its further invasion. Therefore, based on its occurrence records and associated environmental variables, a Maxent model was developed to predict suitable areas for this species in the present and future on a global scale. The model exhibited outstanding performance, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistic values of 0.9329 and 0.926, respectively. The model also indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12) and max temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) were the key environmental variables limiting the distribution of M. pruinosa. Moreover, the model revealed that the current suitable area is 1.01 × 107 km2 worldwide, with southern China, southern Europe, and the eastern United States predicted to be the primary and highly suitable areas in the latter 2 regions. This area is expected to increase under future climate scenarios, mainly in the northern direction. The study's findings contribute to our understanding of climate change's impact on M. pruinosa distribution, and they will aid governments in developing appropriate pest management strategies, including global monitoring and strict quarantine measures.

Phenology model development for Neodryinus typhlocybae: Evaluation of phenological synchrony with its host, Metcalfa pruinosa

The invasive species Metcalfa pruinosa has inflicted significant economic losses in various European and Asian regions. To combat this pest, the parasitoid wasp Neodryinus typhlocybae has been effectively introduced in Europe. Despite its success, research on the field occurrence patterns of N. typhlocybae, particularly its phenology, remains scarce. This study aims to develop a degree-day model for predicting the adult emergence of N. typhlocybae from overwintering cocoons and to assess the phenological synchrony between N. typhlocybae adults and the nymphal stages of M. pruinosa in Korea. In this study, we estimated the thermal parameters of N. typhlocybae under field temperatures and six constant temperatures (13.92, 17.71, 18.53, 20.53, 22.78, and 24.03 °C) conditions. The lower developmental temperature was estimated using the values of the coefficient of variation for the cumulative degree days of emerged individual adults. The estimated lower developmental threshold temperature was 12.3 °C. With this developmental threshold, a degree-day model was developed, and this model well-predicted emergence in field conditions. By simulating this developed model with the actual occurrence of the nymphal stages of its host, M. pruinosa, adult wasp emergence was estimated to be 1.5 weeks later than the first instar nymph of the host but faster than other nymphal stages of M. pruinosa. Thus, the findings in this study would be helpful in determining the possibility of establishing N. typhlocybae and improving the management efficiency of M. pruinosa.

Ensemble evaluation of the potential risk areas of yellow-legged hornet distribution

Invasion of alien species facilitated by climate change and human assistant is one of global threats that cause irreversible damages on the local flora and fauna. One of these issued species, Vespa velutina nigrithorax du Buysson, 1905 (Hymenoptera:Vespidae), is a significant threat to entomofauna, including honeybees, in the introduced regions. This wasp is still expanding its habitats, prioritizing the development of a reliable species distribution model based on recently updated occurrence data. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the potential areas that are climatically exposed to V. v. nigrithorax invasion globally and in South Korea, where the wasp has caused severe damage to local ecosystems and apiculture after its recent introduction. We developed a new global scale ensemble model based on CLIMEX and Maxent models and applied it to South Korea using field survey data. As a result, risky areas were predicted to be temperate and subtropical climate regions, including the eastern USA, western Europe, Far East Asia, and small areas in South America and Australia. In particular, South Korea has a high potential risk throughout the country. We expect that this study would provide fundamental data for monitoring the environmental risks caused by V. v. nigrithorax using advanced species distribution modeling.

Occurrence Prediction of the Citrus Flatid Planthopper (Metcalfa pruinosa (Say, 1830)) in South Korea Using a Random Forest Model

Invasive species cause a severe impact on existing ecosystems. The citrus flatid planthopper (CFP; Metcalfa pruinosa (Say, 1830)) is an invasive species in many countries. Predicting potential occurrence areas of the species related to environmental conditions is important for effective forest ecosystem management. In this study, we evaluated the occurrence patterns of the CFP and predicted its potential occurrence areas in South Korea using a random forest model for a hazard rating of forests considering meteorological and landscape variables. We obtained the occurrence data of the CFP in South Korea from literature and government documents and extracted seven environmental variables (altitude, slope, distance to road (geographical), annual mean temperature, minimum temperature in January, maximum temperature in July, and annual precipitation (meteorological)) and the proportion of land cover types across seven categories (urban, agriculture, forest, grassland, wetland, barren, and water) at each occurrence site from digital maps using a Geographic Information System. The CFP occurrence areas were mostly located at low altitudes, near roads and urbanized areas. Our prediction model also supported these results. The CFP has a high potential to be distributed over the whole of South Korea, excluding high mountainous areas. Finally, factors related to human activities, such as roads and urbanization, strongly influence the occurrence and dispersal of the CFP. Therefore, we propose that these factors should be considered carefully in monitoring and surveillance programs for the CFP and other invasive species.