Statistical outbreak detection by joining medical records and pathogen similarity

The future of automated infection detection: Innovation to transform practice (Part III/III)

Current methods of emergency-room-based syndromic surveillance were insufficient to detect early community spread of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the United States, which slowed the infection prevention and control response to the novel pathogen. Emerging technologies and automated infection surveillance have the potential to improve upon current practice standards and to revolutionize the practice of infection detection, prevention and control both inside and outside of healthcare settings. Genomics, natural language processing, and machine learning can be leveraged to improve identification of transmission events and aid and evaluate outbreak response. In the near future, automated infection detection strategies can be used to advance a true "Learning Healthcare System" that will support near-real-time quality improvement efforts and advance the scientific basis for the practice of infection control.

Genomic Diversity of Hospital-Acquired Infections Revealed through Prospective Whole-Genome Sequencing-Based Surveillance

Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) cause mortality, morbidity, and waste of health care resources. HAIs are also an important driver of antimicrobial resistance, which is increasing around the world. Beginning in November 2016, we instituted an initiative to detect outbreaks of HAIs using prospective whole-genome sequencing-based surveillance of bacterial pathogens collected from hospitalized patients. Here, we describe the diversity of bacteria sampled from hospitalized patients at a single center, as revealed through systematic analysis of bacterial isolate genomes. We sequenced the genomes of 3,004 bacterial isolates from hospitalized patients collected over a 25-month period. We identified bacteria belonging to 97 distinct species, which were distributed among 14 groups of related species. Within these groups, isolates could be distinguished from one another by both average nucleotide identity (ANI) and principal-component analysis of accessory genes (PCA-A). Core genome genetic distances and rates of evolution varied among species, which has practical implications for defining shared ancestry during outbreaks and for our broader understanding of the origins of bacterial strains and species. Finally, antimicrobial resistance genes and putative mobile genetic elements were frequently observed, and our systematic analysis revealed patterns of occurrence across the different species sampled from our hospital. Overall, this study shows how understanding the population structure of diverse pathogens circulating in a single health care setting can improve the discriminatory power of genomic epidemiology studies and can help define the processes leading to strain and species differentiation. IMPORTANCE Hospitalized patients are at increased risk of becoming infected with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used whole-genome sequencing to survey and compare over 3,000 clinical bacterial isolates collected from hospitalized patients at a large medical center over a 2-year period. We identified nearly 100 different bacterial species, which we divided into 14 different groups of related species. When we examined how genetic relatedness differed between species, we found that different species were likely evolving at different rates within our hospital. This is significant because the identification of bacterial outbreaks in the hospital currently relies on genetic similarity cutoffs, which are often applied uniformly across organisms. Finally, we found that antibiotic resistance genes and mobile genetic elements were abundant and were shared among the bacterial isolates we sampled. Overall, this study provides an in-depth view of the genomic diversity and evolutionary processes of bacteria sampled from hospitalized patients, as well as genetic similarity estimates that can inform hospital outbreak detection and prevention efforts.

Whole-genome sequencing surveillance and machine learning for healthcare outbreak detection and investigation: A systematic review and summary

BACKGROUND

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has traditionally been used in infection prevention to confirm or refute the presence of an outbreak after it has occurred. Due to decreasing costs of WGS, an increasing number of institutions have been utilizing WGS-based surveillance. Additionally, machine learning or statistical modeling to supplement infection prevention practice have also been used. We systematically reviewed the use of WGS surveillance and machine learning to detect and investigate outbreaks in healthcare settings.

METHODS

We performed a PubMed search using separate terms for WGS surveillance and/or machine-learning technologies for infection prevention through March 15, 2021.

RESULTS

Of 767 studies returned using the WGS search terms, 42 articles were included for review. Only 2 studies (4.8%) were performed in real time, and 39 (92.9%) studied only 1 pathogen. Nearly all studies (n = 41, 97.6%) found genetic relatedness between some isolates collected. Across all studies, 525 outbreaks were detected among 2,837 related isolates (average, 5.4 isolates per outbreak). Also, 35 studies (83.3%) only utilized geotemporal clustering to identify outbreak transmission routes. Of 21 studies identified using the machine-learning search terms, 4 were included for review. In each study, machine learning aided outbreak investigations by complementing methods to gather epidemiologic data and automating identification of transmission pathways.

CONCLUSIONS

WGS surveillance is an emerging method that can enhance outbreak detection. Machine learning has the potential to identify novel routes of pathogen transmission. Broader incorporation of WGS surveillance into infection prevention practice has the potential to transform the detection and control of healthcare outbreaks.

Whole Genome Sequencing Surveillance and Machine Learning of the Electronic Health Record for Enhanced Healthcare Outbreak Detection

BACKGROUND

Most hospitals use traditional infection prevention (IP) methods for outbreak detection. We developed the Enhanced Detection System for Healthcare-Associated Transmission (EDS-HAT), which combines whole genome sequencing (WGS) surveillance and machine learning (ML) of the electronic health record (EHR) to identify undetected outbreaks and the responsible transmission routes, respectively.

METHODS

We performed WGS surveillance of healthcare-associated bacterial pathogens from November 2016 to November 2018. EHR ML was used to identify the transmission routes for WGS-detected outbreaks, which were investigated by an IP expert. Potential infections prevented were estimated and compared to traditional IP practice during the same period.

RESULTS

Of 3,165 isolates, there were 2,752 unique patient isolates in 99 clusters involving 297 (10.8%) patient isolates were identified by WGS; clusters ranged from 2-14 patients. At least one transmission route was detected for 65.7% of clusters. During the same time, traditional IP investigation prompted WGS for 15 suspected outbreaks involving 133 patients, for which transmission events were identified for 5 (3.8%). If EDS-HAT had been running in real-time, 25-63 transmissions could have been prevented. EDS-HAT was found to be cost-saving and more effective than traditional IP practice, with overall savings of $192,408 - $692,532.

CONCLUSION

EDS-HAT detected multiple outbreaks not identified using traditional IP methods, correctly identified the transmission routes for most outbreaks, and would save the hospital substantial costs. Traditional IP practice misidentified outbreaks for which transmission did not occur. WGS surveillance combined with EHR ML has the potential to save costs and enhance patient safety.

Outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Infections from a Contaminated Gastroscope Detected by Whole Genome Sequencing Surveillance

BACKGROUND

Traditional methods of outbreak investigations utilize reactive whole genome sequencing (WGS) to confirm or refute the outbreak. We have implemented WGS surveillance and a machine learning (ML) algorithm for the electronic health record (EHR) to retrospectively detect previously unidentified outbreaks and to determine the responsible transmission routes.

METHODS

We performed WGS surveillance to identify and characterize clusters of genetically-related Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections during a 24-month period. ML of the EHR was used to identify potential transmission routes. A manual review of the EHR was performed by an infection preventionist to determine the most likely route and results were compared to the ML algorithm.

RESULTS

We identified a cluster of 6 genetically related P. aeruginosa cases that occurred during a 7-month period. The ML algorithm identified gastroscopy as a potential transmission route for 4 of the 6 patients. Manual EHR review confirmed gastroscopy as the most likely route for 5 patients. This transmission route was confirmed by identification of a genetically-related P. aeruginosa incidentally cultured from a gastroscope used on 4of the 5 patients. Three infections, 2 of which were blood stream infections, could have been prevented if the ML algorithm had been running in real-time.

CONCLUSIONS

WGS surveillance combined with a ML algorithm of the EHR identified a previously undetected outbreak of gastroscope-associated P. aeruginosa infections. These results underscore the value of WGS surveillance and ML of the EHR for enhancing outbreak detection in hospitals and preventing serious infections.

Method for Economic Evaluation of Bacterial Whole Genome Sequencing Surveillance Compared to Standard of Care in Detecting Hospital Outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) surveillance and electronic health record data mining have the potential to greatly enhance the identification and control of hospital outbreaks. The objective was to develop methods for examining economic value of a WGS surveillance-based infection prevention (IP) program compared to standard of care (SoC).

METHODS

The economic value of a WGS surveillance-based IP program was assessed from a hospital's perspective using historical outbreaks from 2011-2016. We used transmission network of outbreaks to estimate incremental cost per transmission averted. The number of transmissions averted depended on the effectiveness of intervening against transmission routes, time from transmission to positive culture results and time taken to obtain WGS results and intervene on the transmission route identified. The total cost of an IP program included cost of staffing, WGS, and treating infections.

RESULTS

Approximately 41 out of 89 (46%) transmissions could have been averted under the WGS surveillance-based IP program, and it was found to be a less costly and more effective strategy than SoC. The results were most sensitive to the cost of performing WGS and the number of isolates sequenced per year under WGS surveillance. The probability of the WGS surveillance-based IP program being cost-effective was 80% if willingness to pay exceeded $2400 per transmission averted.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed economic analysis is a useful tool to examine economic value of a WGS surveillance-based IP program. These methods will be applied to a prospective evaluation of WGS surveillance compared to SoC.

Outbreak of Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium in Interventional Radiology: Detection Through Whole-genome Sequencing-based Surveillance

BACKGROUND

Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) are a major cause of hospital-acquired infections. The risk of infection from interventional radiology (IR) procedures is not well documented. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) surveillance of clinical bacterial isolates among hospitalized patients can identify previously unrecognized outbreaks.

METHODS

We analyzed WGS surveillance data from November 2016 to November 2017 for evidence of VRE transmission. A previously unrecognized cluster of 10 genetically related VRE (Enterococcus faecium) infections was discovered. Electronic health record review identified IR procedures as a potential source. An outbreak investigation was conducted.

RESULTS

Of the 10 outbreak patients, 9 had undergone an IR procedure with intravenous (IV) contrast ≤22 days before infection. In a matched case-control study, preceding IR procedure and IR procedure with contrast were associated with VRE infection (matched odds ratio [MOR], 16.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01 to 138.73; P = .009 and MOR, 39.35; 95% CI, 7.85 to infinity; P < .001, respectively). Investigation of IR practices and review of the manufacturer's training video revealed sterility breaches in contrast preparation. Our investigation also supported possible transmission from an IR technician. Infection prevention interventions were implemented, and no further IR-associated VRE transmissions have been observed.

CONCLUSIONS

A prolonged outbreak of VRE infections related to IR procedures with IV contrast resulted from nonsterile preparation of injectable contrast. The fact that our VRE outbreak was discovered through WGS surveillance and the manufacturer's training video that demonstrated nonsterile technique raise the possibility that infections following invasive IR procedures may be more common than previously recognized.

Lean back and wait for the alarm? Testing an automated alarm system for nosocomial outbreaks to provide support for infection control professionals

Introduction

Outbreaks of communicable diseases in hospitals need to be quickly detected in order to enable immediate control. The increasing digitalization of hospital data processing offers potential solutions for automated outbreak detection systems (AODS). Our goal was to assess a newly developed AODS.

Methods

Our AODS was based on the diagnostic results of routine clinical microbiological examinations. The system prospectively counted detections per bacterial pathogen over time for the years 2016 and 2017. The baseline data covers data from 2013–2015. The comparative analysis was based on six different mathematical algorithms (normal/Poisson and score prediction intervals, the early aberration reporting system, negative binomial CUSUMs, and the Farrington algorithm). The clusters automatically detected were then compared with the results of our manual outbreak detection system.

Results

During the analysis period, 14 different hospital outbreaks were detected as a result of conventional manual outbreak detection. Based on the pathogens’ overall incidence, outbreaks were divided into two categories: outbreaks with rarely detected pathogens (sporadic) and outbreaks with often detected pathogens (endemic). For outbreaks with sporadic pathogens, the detection rate of our AODS ranged from 83% to 100%. Every algorithm detected 6 of 7 outbreaks with a sporadic pathogen. The AODS identified outbreaks with an endemic pathogen were at a detection rate of 33% to 100%. For endemic pathogens, the results varied based on the epidemiological characteristics of each outbreak and pathogen.

Conclusion

AODS for hospitals based on routine microbiological data is feasible and can provide relevant benefits for infection control teams. It offers in-time automated notification of suspected pathogen clusters especially for sporadically occurring pathogens. However, outbreaks of endemically detected pathogens need further individual pathogen-specific and setting-specific adjustments.

Evolution of Outbreak-Causing Carbapenem-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae ST258 at a Tertiary Care Hospital over 8 Years

Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) strains belonging to sequence type 258 (ST258) are frequent causes of hospital-associated outbreaks and are a major contributor to the spread of carbapenemases. This genetic lineage emerged several decades ago and remains a major global health care challenge. In this study, genomic epidemiology was used to investigate the emergence, evolution, and persistence of ST258 carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae outbreak-causing lineages at a large tertiary care hospital over 8 years. A time-based phylogenetic analysis of 136 ST258 isolates demonstrated the succession of multiple genetically distinct ST258 sublineages over the 8-year period. Ongoing genomic surveillance identified the emergence and persistence of several distinct clonal ST258 populations. Patterns of multidrug resistance determinants and plasmid replicons were consistent with continued evolution and persistence of these populations. Five ST258 outbreaks were documented, including three that were caused by the same clonal lineage. Mutations in genes encoding effectors of biofilm production and iron acquisition were identified among persistent clones. Two emergent lineages bearing K. pneumoniae integrative conjugative element 10 (ICEKp10) and harboring yersiniabactin and colibactin virulence factors were identified. The results show how distinct ST258 subpopulations have evolved and persisted within the same hospital over nearly a decade.IMPORTANCE The carbapenem class of antibiotics is invaluable for the treatment of selected multidrug-resistant Gram-negative pathogens. The continued transmission of carbapenem-resistant bacteria such as ST258 K. pneumoniae is of serious global public health concern, as treatment options for these infections are limited. This genomic epidemiologic investigation traced the natural history of ST258 K. pneumoniae in a single health care setting over nearly a decade. We found that distinct ST258 subpopulations have caused both device-associated and ward-associated outbreaks, and some of these populations remain endemic within our hospital to the present day. The finding of virulence determinants among emergent ST258 clones supports the idea of convergent evolution of drug-resistant and virulent CRKP strains and highlights the need for continued surveillance, prevention, and control efforts to address emergent and evolving ST258 populations in the health care setting.

Use of online tools for antimicrobial resistance prediction by whole-genome sequencing in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE)

OBJECTIVES

The antimicrobial resistance (AMR) crisis represents a serious threat to public health and has resulted in concentrated efforts to accelerate development of rapid molecular diagnostics for AMR. In combination with publicly available web-based AMR databases, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) offers the capacity for rapid detection of AMR genes. Here we studied the concordance between WGS-based resistance prediction and phenotypic susceptibility test results for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) clinical isolates using publicly available tools and databases.

METHODS

Clinical isolates prospectively collected at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center between December 2016 and December 2017 underwent WGS. The AMR gene content was assessed from assembled genomes by BLASTn search of online databases. Concordance between the WGS-predicted resistance profile and phenotypic susceptibility as well as the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each antibiotic/organism combination, using the phenotypic results as gold standard.

RESULTS

Phenotypic susceptibility testing and WGS results were available for 1242 isolate/antibiotic combinations. Overall concordance was 99.3%, with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 98.7% (95% CI 97.2-99.5%), 99.6% (95% CI 98.8-99.9%), 99.3% (95% CI 98.0-99.8%) and 99.2% (95% CI 98.3-99.7%), respectively. Additional identification of point mutations in housekeeping genes increased the concordance to 99.4%, sensitivity to 99.3% (95% CI 98.2-99.8%) and NPV to 99.4% (95% CI 98.4-99.8%).

CONCLUSION

WGS can be used as a reliable predicator of phenotypic resistance both for MRSA and VRE using readily available online tools.

Automated data mining of the electronic health record for investigation of healthcare-associated outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Identifying routes of transmission among hospitalized patients during a healthcare-associated outbreak can be tedious, particularly among patients with complex hospital stays and multiple exposures. Data mining of the electronic health record (EHR) has the potential to rapidly identify common exposures among patients suspected of being part of an outbreak.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 9 hospital outbreaks that occurred during 2011-2016 and that had previously been characterized both according to transmission route and by molecular characterization of the bacterial isolates. We determined (1) the ability of data mining of the EHR to identify the correct route of transmission, (2) how early the correct route was identified during the timeline of the outbreak, and (3) how many cases in the outbreaks could have been prevented had the system been running in real time.

RESULTS

Correct routes were identified for all outbreaks at the second patient, except for one outbreak involving &gt;1 transmission route that was detected at the eighth patient. Up to 40 or 34 infections (78% or 66% of possible preventable infections, respectively) could have been prevented if data mining had been implemented in real time, assuming the initiation of an effective intervention within 7 or 14 days of identification of the transmission route, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Data mining of the EHR was accurate for identifying routes of transmission among patients who were part of the outbreak. Prospective validation of this approach using routine whole-genome sequencing and data mining of the EHR for both outbreak detection and route attribution is ongoing.