Onset and progression of kidney disease in type 2 diabetes among multi-ethnic Asian population

Development and deployment of a nationwide predictive model for chronic kidney disease progression in diabetic patients

Aim

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major complication of diabetes and a significant disease burden on the healthcare system. The aim of this work was to apply a predictive model to identify high-risk patients in the early stages of CKD as a means to provide early intervention to avert or delay kidney function deterioration.

Materials and methods

Using the data from the National Diabetes Database in Singapore, we applied a machine-learning algorithm to develop a predictive model for CKD progression in diabetic patients and to deploy the model nationwide.

Results

Our model was rigorously validated. It outperformed existing models and clinician predictions. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of our model is 0.88, with the 95% confidence interval being 0.87 to 0.89. In recognition of its higher and consistent accuracy and clinical usefulness, our CKD model became the first clinical model deployed nationwide in Singapore and has been incorporated into a national program to engage patients in long-term care plans in battling chronic diseases. The risk score generated by the model stratifies patients into three risk levels, which are embedded into the Diabetes Patient Dashboard for clinicians and care managers who can then allocate healthcare resources accordingly.

Conclusion

This project provided a successful example of how an artificial intelligence (AI)-based model can be adopted to support clinical decision-making nationwide.

Kidney function trajectories, associated factors, and outcomes in multiethnic Asian patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

We examined the trajectory of estimated glomerular filtrate rate (eGFR), associated risk factors, and its relationship with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among a multiethnic patient population with type 2 diabetes in Singapore.

METHODS

A follow-up study included 62 080 individuals with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years in a multi-institutional SingHealth Diabetes Registry between 2013 and 2019. eGFR trajectories were analyzed using latent class linear mixed models. Factors associated with eGFR trajectories were evaluated using multinomial logistic regression. The association of eGFR trajectories with ESKD was assessed via competing risk models.

RESULTS

Trajectory of kidney function, determined by eGFR, was nonlinear. The trajectory pattern was classified as stable initially then gradual decline (75%), progressive decline (21.9%), and rapid decline (3.1%). Younger age, female sex, Malay ethnicity, lower-income housing type, current smoking, higher glycated hemoglobin, lower low-density lipoprotein, higher triglyceride, uncontrolled blood pressure, albuminuria, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher eGFR levels each were associated with progressive or rapid decline. Compared with the trajectory of stable initially then gradual eGFR decline, progressive decline increased the hazard of ESKD by 6.14-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.96-7.61)) and rapid decline by 82.55 folds (95% CI: 55.90-121.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Three nonlinear trajectory classes of kidney function were identified among multiethnic individuals with type 2 diabetes in Singapore. About one in four individuals had a progressive or rapid decline in eGFR. Our results suggest that eGFR trajectories are correlated with multiple social and modifiable risk factors and inform the risk of ESKD.

Associations of non-invasive indices of liver steatosis and fibrosis with progressive kidney impairment in adults with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

Longitudinal data linking non-alcoholic fatty liver disease to kidney dysfunction in type 2 diabetes (T2D) are limited. This study evaluated the associations of non-invasive indices of liver steatosis and liver fibrosis with kidney impairment, and the mediatory role of the pro-angiogenic factor leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein 1 (LRG1).

METHODS

T2D adults (n = 2057) were followed for a mean period of 6.1 ± 1.6 years. Baseline liver steatosis [(hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and Zhejiang University index (ZJU)] and liver fibrosis [aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase ratio (AAR) and BARD] indices derived from composite scoring systems were calculated. Plasma LRG1 levels were quantified using immunoassay. The study outcomes were progressive kidney function decline defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline of ≥ 40% and albuminuria progression defined as an increase in albuminuria category.

RESULTS

Cross-sectionally, liver steatosis and liver fibrosis indices were associated with increased albuminuria (urinary albumin/creatinine ratio ≥ 30 µg/mg) and reduced renal function (eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m²) after covariate adjustment, respectively. Approximately 32% of the participants experienced progressive kidney function decline, while 38% had albuminuria worsening over time. Longitudinal analysis revealed that baseline AAR (hazard ratio: 1.56; 95% CI 1.15-2.11) and BARD (hazard ratio: 1.16, 95% CI 1.04-1.28) predicted progressive kidney function decline, partly mediated by LRG1. In contrast, liver steatosis (HSI and ZJU) but not liver fibrosis (AAR and BARD) indices were independently associated with albuminuria progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased liver steatosis scores were associated with albuminuria deterioration. Conversely, liver fibrosis indices may be associated with progressive kidney function decline, potentially driven by increased inflammation and angiogenesis.

Establishment and validation of the cut-off values of estimated glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio for diabetic kidney disease: A multi-center, prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to study the cut-off values of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the urinary albumin creatinine ratio (UACR) in the normal range for diabetic kidney disease (DKD).

METHODS

In this study, we conducted a retrospective, observational cohort study included 374 type 2 diabetic patients who had baseline eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m² and UACR <30 mg/g with up to 6 years of follow-up. The results were further validated in a multi-center, prospective cohort study.

RESULTS

In the development cohort, baseline eGFR (AUC: 0.90, cut-off value: 84.8 mL/min/1.73 m², sensitivity: 0.80, specificity: 0.85) or UACR (AUC: 0.74, cut-off value: 15.5mg/g, sensitivity: 0.69, specificity: 0.63) was the most effective single predictor for DKD. Moreover, compared with eGFR or UACR alone, the prediction model consisted of all of the independent risk factors did not improve the predictive performance (P >0.05). The discrimination of eGFR at the cut-off value of 84.80 mL/min/1.73 m2 or UACR at 15.5mg/g with the largest Youden's index was further confirmed in the validation cohort. The decrease rate of eGFR was faster in patients with UACR ≥15.5mg/g (P <0.05). Furthermore, the decrease rate of eGFR or increase rate of UACR and the incidence and severity of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were higher in patients with eGFR ≤84.8 mL/min/1.73 m² or UACR ≥15.5mg/g (P <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, eGFR ≤84.8mL/min/1.73 m² or UACR ≥15.5mg/g in the normal range may be an effective cut-off value for DKD and may increase the incidence and severity for CVD in type 2 diabetic patients.

Establishment and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Early Diabetic Kidney Disease Based on a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 20 Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Identifying patients at high risk of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) helps improve clinical outcome.

PURPOSE

To establish a model for predicting DKD.

DATA SOURCES

The derivation cohort was from a meta-analysis. The validation cohort was from a Chinese cohort.

STUDY SELECTION

Cohort studies that reported risk factors of DKD with their corresponding risk ratios (RRs) in patients with type 2 diabetes were selected. All patients had estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m² and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) <30 mg/g at baseline.

DATA EXTRACTION

Risk factors and their corresponding RRs were extracted. Only risk factors with statistical significance were included in our DKD risk prediction model.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Twenty cohorts including 41,271 patients with type 2 diabetes were included in our meta-analysis. Age, BMI, smoking, diabetic retinopathy, hemoglobin A_1c, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, UACR, and eGFR were statistically significant. All these risk factors were included in the model except eGFR because of the significant heterogeneity among studies. All risk factors were scored according to their weightings, and the highest score was 37.0. The model was validated in an external cohort with a median follow-up of 2.9 years. A cutoff value of 16 was selected with a sensitivity of 0.847 and a specificity of 0.677.

LIMITATIONS

There was huge heterogeneity among studies involving eGFR. More evidence is needed to power it as a risk factor of DKD.

CONCLUSIONS

The DKD risk prediction model consisting of nine risk factors established in this study is a simple tool for detecting patients at high risk of DKD.

The role of hypertriglyceridemia and treatment patterns in the progression of IgA nephropathy with a high proportion of global glomerulosclerosis

PURPOSE

Many studies have focused on finding predictors for mild IgAN progression. However, the cases of severe IgAN with a high proportion of global glomerulosclerosis have received inadequate attention.

METHODS

A group of 172 primary IgAN patients with 50-75% global glomerulosclerosis was studied retrospectively between April 2007 and October 2017. Patients were divided into three groups according to the serum triglyceride tertiles:  < 1.42 µmol/L (Group 1), 1.42-2.29 µmol/L (Group 2), and > 2.29 µmol/L (Group 3). Groups 1 and 2 comprised non-hypertriglyceridemia subjects, while Group 3 was defined as the hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) group. The patients were followed for 4-96 months (median 39.43 months). The study end point was defined as a 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or ESRD.

RESULTS

A high proportion of global glomerulosclerosis is not absolutely correlated with severe clinical features and poor renal outcome. In our retrospective observation, eGFR decreased by less than 10% of the baseline during follow-up in 43.6% of the patients. However, in our patients with HTG, the cumulative renal survival rate was significantly lower compared to those without HTG. Multivariate Cox regression analysis also showed that triglyceride is an independent predictor of poor renal outcomes. Furthermore, in the HTG group, the cumulative renal survival rates were higher in patients treated with Tripterygium wilfordii Hook F (TwHF) compared to those without TwHF.

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion of global glomerulosclerosis combined with HTG at biopsy have better predictive validity for the disease progression of IgAN than global glomerulosclerosis alone. TwHF may partially affect the renal outcome of severe IgAN with HTG, and this may relate to its regulation of lipid metabolism and immunoinflammatory response.

Relationship of chronic kidney disease of the with glycemic status, cardiovascular diseases and laboratory indicators in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Aim. To study the relationship of chronic kidney disease parameters with glycemic control, subclinical and clinical signs of cardiovascular diseases and laboratory parameters.

Material and methods. The study included 528 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) aged 30-69 years. All respondents answered questions from the ARIC questionnaire about T2DM and cardiovascular diseases. We determined the ankle-brachial index, sonographic left ventricular hypertrophy, intima-media thickness and defined hypertensive, diabetic angiopathy and polyneuropathy. The levels of glycemia, lipid spectrum, creatinine, uric acid, glycohemoglobin were evaluted. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was calculated using the Cockroft-Gault method, and microalbuminuria (MAU) was determined using Micral tests.

Results. Glycohemoglobin did not depend on MAU (p=0,564), a decrease in GFR was accompanied by an improvement in glycemic control (p=0,393). There was a direct association between MAU and the duration of diabetes (p=0,001), in patients with a longer course of the disease GFR was reduced (p=0,001). With increasing of systolic blood pressure, MAU progressed (p=0,016), while GFR decreased (p<0,01). In patients with hypertensive angiopathy, MAU of 100 mg/dl (p=0,001) and stage 2 of chronic kidney disease (p=0,048) occurred with the highest incidence (1/4) (p=0,048). According to the survey, angina was found in patients with MAU of 100 mg/dl (p=0,006). Chronic heart failure led to the progression of albuminuria (p=0,007), in patients with clinical signs of atherosclerosis of the lower extremities, the frequency of MAU was 72-87,5% (p=0,032). The highest intima-media thickness of the right carotid artery in patients with GFR 89-60 ml/min and MAU 100 mg/dL (respectively, 1,77±0,41, 1,33±0,49) were determined. Sonographic signs of left ventricular hypertrophy were observed in 84,6% of patients with an MAU of 300 mg/dL (p=0,022), as the severity of albuminuria increased, the ejection fraction of the left ventricle decreased (p=0,003). Albuminuria increased the level of myocardial remodeling (p<0,05) and this indicator showed a direct relationship with the severity of MAU. With an increase in albuminuria, the degree of triglyceridemia increased. An increase of MAU level and a decrease in GFR was accompanied by an increase in creatininemia (p<0,001). A direct relationship was found between lithemia and MAU. Conversely, a decrease in GFR contributed to the progression of MAU (p<0,001).

Conclusion. Reduction of GFR and MAU are the major risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Azerbaijani population with T2DM. We suppose that periodic monitoring of these parameters for primary and secondary prevention of diabetic nephropathy plays an important role.

Elevated triglycerides rather than other lipid parameters are associated with increased urinary albumin to creatinine ratio in the general population of China: a report from the REACTION study

Background

Dyslipidaemia has always been regarded as the cornerstone of arteriosclerosis and is related to the pathogenesis of renal insufficiency. However, it is unclear which routinely available lipid parameter is related to urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). The purpose of this study was to examine the lipid abnormalities associated with UACR in the general population in China.

Methods

The present study was nested in an ongoing Risk Evaluation of cAncers in Chinese diabetic Individuals: A lONgitudinal (REACTION) study, which was designed to demonstrate the association of abnormal glucose metabolism with the risk of cancer in the Chinese population. This cross-sectional study included 34, 569 subjects (11, 390 males and 23, 179 females) from 8 different regional community cohorts, with an average age of 57.9 years. The UACR data were divided into the < 25% group, the 25–49% group, the 50–74% group, and the ≥ 75% group according to the quartile division of the centre where the subjects visited. The lipid classes were defined according to the guidelines for the prevention and treatment of dyslipidaemia in Chinese adults. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association of the lipid parameters and UACR.

Results

Multivariable regression analysis revealed that compared with the other lipid parameters, triglycerides (TG) showed an adjusted odds ratio that was significant in model 1–4. This relationship was attenuated after adjusting for Haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and blood pressure (BP), but TG ≥ 2.3 mmol/L was still significantly associated with UACR in total subjects and in both men and women (OR: 1.131, 95% CI 1.065–1.203, P < 0.001 in total subjects; OR: 1.134, 95% CI 1.022–1.258, P = 0.017 in men; OR: 1.129, 95% CI 1.046–1.219, P = 0.002 in women). In the stratified analysis, elevated TG was significantly associated with increased urinary albumin in subjects with eGFR ≥ 90 mL/min per 1.73 m², 5.6 ≤ FBG < 7.0 or 7.8 ≤ PBG < 11.1 mmol/L, 24 ≤ BMI < 28 kg/m², 120 ≤ SBP < 140 and/or 80 ≤ DBP < 90 mmHg.

Conclusions

We conclude that high TG levels rather than total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels are associated with UACR in the general population in China.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12933-019-0863-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Gain in adiposity over 3 years is associated with progressive renal decline in multi-ethnic South-east Asians with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated the association between gain in adiposity and renal decline in a large prospective multiethnic South-east Asian cohort with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

Three years after the baseline visit, 2057 T2DM subjects were recalled for reassessment. The final cohort comprised 1014 subjects and was categorized into tertiles based on changes in body weight (ΔWt), body mass index (ΔBMI), visceral fat area (ΔVFA), and BMI-adjusted VFA (ΔVFA_BMI ). Outcomes included annual and rapid (≥3 mL/min per 1.73 m² per year) decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and progression of albuminuria.

RESULTS

Participants (mean [±SD] age 57 ± 11 years, 48.8% women, BMI 27.7 ± 5.4 kg/m² ) exhibited a median annual decline in eGFR of 1.0 mL/min per 1.73 m² . Compared with the lower tertiles, Tertile 3 of ΔWt, ΔBMI, ΔVFA, and ΔVFA_BMI had the highest anthropometric increase, albeit of modest magnitude, and this was accompanied by the worst renal outcomes (all P < 0.05). The relationship between annual eGFR decline and Tertile 3 of ΔWt, ΔBMI, and ΔVFA_BMI persisted after multivariate adjustment in men but not in women. In addition, Tertile 3 of ΔWt, ΔBMI, ΔVFA, and ΔVFA_BMI predicted rapid eGFR decline. Anthropometric gains were also associated with progression of albuminuria.

CONCLUSIONS

Modest longitudinal gain in adiposity was associated with progressive renal decline in T2DM patients, suggesting that increased adiposity over time adversely affects renal outcomes. Therefore, a carefully designed weight-neutral or -loss antidiabetic treatment regimen is important when managing T2DM in the clinic.

Long-term outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes attending a multidisciplinary diabetes kidney disease clinic

BACKGROUND

The best model of care to retard diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in the clinic is underexplored. In this study we investigated the long-term renal outcomes of a joint endocrinologist-nephrologist clinic.

METHODS

The present study was a nested case-control study derived from a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) seen prospectively at a secondary care diabetes center (DC). Cases ("DKD clinic group") were patients seen at the CKD clinic after being referred by physicians in DCs for management of DKD. Controls ("non-DKD clinic group") were patients from the same DC (i.e. same source population) with the same inclusion criteria of Stages 3-4 chronic kidney disease (CKD) at baseline but not seen at the DKD clinic. The outcome was Stage 5 CKD, defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <15 mL/min per 1.73 m² .

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 3.0 years (interquartile range 1.2-5.1 years), 240 patients (28.7%) reached Stage 5 CKD, with 45.8% and 54.2% of those reaching Stage 5 CKD in the DKD and non-DKD clinic groups, respectively. Multivariable Cox regression revealed that the DKD clinic group had a lower risk of progressing to Stage 5 CKD (hazard ratio 0.55; 95% confidence interval 0.36-0.83; P = 0.004) compared with the non-DKD clinic group.

CONCLUSIONS

Multidisciplinary endocrinology and nephrology care in the DKD clinic is associated with a lower risk of end-stage renal disease. These findings may inform future management strategies targeted at patients with T2DM and CKD, especially with regard to joint specialist management involving endocrinologists and nephrologists.