Cost-Effectiveness of a Multicomponent Primary Care Intervention for Hypertension

BACKGROUND

The SingHypertension primary care clinic intervention, which consisted of clinician training in hypertension management, subsidized single-pill combination medications, nurse-delivered motivational conversations and telephone follow-ups, improved blood pressure control and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores relative to usual care among patients with uncontrolled hypertension in Singapore. This study quantified the incremental cost-effectiveness, in terms of incremental cost per unit reduction disability-adjusted life years, of SingHypertension relative to usual care for patients with hypertension from the health system perspective.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We developed a Markov model to simulate CVD events and associated outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of patients over a 10-year period. Costs were measured in US dollars, and effectiveness was measured in disability-adjusted life years averted. We present base-case results and conducted deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of US $55 500 per DALY averted, SingHypertension was cost-effective for patients with hypertension (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: US $24 765 per disability-adjusted life year averted) relative to usual care. This result held even if risk reduction was assumed to decline linearly to 0 over 10 years but not sooner than 7 years. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were most sensitive to the magnitude of the reduction in CVD risk; at least a 0.13% to 0.16% point reduction in 10-year CVD risk is required for cost-effectiveness. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates that SingHypertension has a 78% chance of being cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

SingHypertension represents good value for the money for reducing CVD incidence, morbidity, and mortality and should be considered for wide-scale implementation in Singapore and possibly other countries.

REGISTRATION INFORMATION

REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02972619.

Social Determinants of Health and Disparities in Hypertension and Cardiovascular Diseases

High blood pressure causes over 10 million preventable deaths annually globally. Populations in low- and middle-income countries suffer the most, experiencing increased uncontrolled blood pressure and cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Despite improvements in high-income countries, disparities persist, notably in the United States, where Black individuals face up to 4× higher CVD mortality than White individuals. Social determinants of health encompass complex, multidimensional factors linked to an individual's birthplace, upbringing, activities, residence, workplaces, socioeconomic and environmental structures, and significantly affect health outcomes, including hypertension and CVD. This review explored how social determinants of health drive disparities in hypertension and related CVD morbidity from a socioecological and life course perspective. We present evidence-based strategies, emphasizing interventions tailored to specific community needs and cross-sector collaboration to address health inequalities rooted in social factors, which are key elements toward achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 for reducing premature CVD mortality by 30% by 2030.

Heterogeneity by age and gender in the association of kidney function with mortality among patients with diabetes - analysis of diabetes registry in Singapore

BACKGROUND

We aimed to explore the three-way interaction among age, gender, and kidney function on the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

In a retrospective cohort study, patients aged > 40 years with T2D with serum creatinine and urine albumin measured from 2013 to 2019 were included from a multi-institutional diabetes registry. The exposure was estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), outcomes were all-cause mortality (primary outcome) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality (secondary outcome). We applied multivariable cox proportional hazards regression analysis to compute the association between eGFR and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 36,556 patients were followed for up to 6 years during which 2492 (6.82%) died from all causes, and 690 (1.9%) died from CVD. We observed a significant three-way interaction (p = 0.021) among age (younger, < 65; older, ≥65 years), gender and eGFR for the risk of all-cause mortality. Using age- and gender-specific eGFR of 90 ml/min/1.73m2 as the reference point, the adjusted hazard rate (HR) (95% CI) for all-cause mortality at eGFR of 40 ml/min/1.73m2 was 3.70 (2.29 to 5.99) in younger women and 1.86 (1.08 to 3.19) in younger men. The corresponding adjusted HRs in older women and older men were 2.38 (2.02 to 2.82) and 2.18 (1.85 to 2.57), respectively. Similar results were observed for CVD deaths, although the three-way interaction was not statistically significant. Sensitivity analysis yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

In this T2D population, younger women with reduced kidney function might be more susceptible to higher risks of all-cause mortality and CVD mortality than younger men.

Kidney function trajectories, associated factors, and outcomes in multiethnic Asian patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

We examined the trajectory of estimated glomerular filtrate rate (eGFR), associated risk factors, and its relationship with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among a multiethnic patient population with type 2 diabetes in Singapore.

METHODS

A follow-up study included 62 080 individuals with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years in a multi-institutional SingHealth Diabetes Registry between 2013 and 2019. eGFR trajectories were analyzed using latent class linear mixed models. Factors associated with eGFR trajectories were evaluated using multinomial logistic regression. The association of eGFR trajectories with ESKD was assessed via competing risk models.

RESULTS

Trajectory of kidney function, determined by eGFR, was nonlinear. The trajectory pattern was classified as stable initially then gradual decline (75%), progressive decline (21.9%), and rapid decline (3.1%). Younger age, female sex, Malay ethnicity, lower-income housing type, current smoking, higher glycated hemoglobin, lower low-density lipoprotein, higher triglyceride, uncontrolled blood pressure, albuminuria, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher eGFR levels each were associated with progressive or rapid decline. Compared with the trajectory of stable initially then gradual eGFR decline, progressive decline increased the hazard of ESKD by 6.14-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.96-7.61)) and rapid decline by 82.55 folds (95% CI: 55.90-121.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Three nonlinear trajectory classes of kidney function were identified among multiethnic individuals with type 2 diabetes in Singapore. About one in four individuals had a progressive or rapid decline in eGFR. Our results suggest that eGFR trajectories are correlated with multiple social and modifiable risk factors and inform the risk of ESKD.

Lifestyle management of hypertension: International Society of Hypertension position paper endorsed by the World Hypertension League and European Society of Hypertension

Hypertension, defined as persistently elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) >140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) at least 90 mmHg (International Society of Hypertension guidelines), affects over 1.5 billion people worldwide. Hypertension is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (e.g. coronary heart disease, heart failure and stroke) and death. An international panel of experts convened by the International Society of Hypertension College of Experts compiled lifestyle management recommendations as first-line strategy to prevent and control hypertension in adulthood. We also recommend that lifestyle changes be continued even when blood pressure-lowering medications are prescribed. Specific recommendations based on literature evidence are summarized with advice to start these measures early in life, including maintaining a healthy body weight, increased levels of different types of physical activity, healthy eating and drinking, avoidance and cessation of smoking and alcohol use, management of stress and sleep levels. We also discuss the relevance of specific approaches including consumption of sodium, potassium, sugar, fibre, coffee, tea, intermittent fasting as well as integrated strategies to implement these recommendations using, for example, behaviour change-related technologies and digital tools.

Real-World Systolic and Diastolic Blood Pressure Levels and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes-Results From a Large Registry Cohort in Asia

BACKGROUND

Elevated blood pressure (BP) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. However, there is ongoing debate whether intensive BP lowering may paradoxically increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), especially in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We investigated the association of BP with risk of CVD mortality in patients with T2D.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data on 83 721 patients with T2D from a multi-institutional diabetes registry in Singapore from 2013 to 2019. BP was analyzed as categories and restricted cubic splines using Cox multivariable regression analysis stratified by preexisting CVD and age (<65 years versus ≥65 years). The primary outcome was CVD mortality, determined via linkage with the national registry. Among 83 721 patients with T2D (mean age 65.3 years, 50.6% women, 78.9% taking antihypertensive medications), 7.6 per 1000 person-years experienced the primary outcome. Systolic BP had a graded relationship with a significant increase in CVD mortality at levels >120 to 129 mm Hg. Diastolic BP levels >90 mm Hg were significantly associated with CVD mortality in those aged ≥65 years. In addition, diastolic BP <70 mm Hg was associated with a significantly higher risk of CVD mortality in all patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with T2D, clinic systolic BP levels ≥130 mm Hg or diastolic BP levels ≥90 mm Hg are associated with higher risk of CVD mortality. Diastolic BP <70 mm Hg is also associated with the risk of adverse CVD outcomes, although reverse causality cannot be ruled out.

A meta-analysis of GFR slope as a surrogate endpoint for kidney failure

Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline is causally associated with kidney failure and is a candidate surrogate endpoint for clinical trials of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. Analyses across a diverse spectrum of interventions and populations is required for acceptance of GFR decline as an endpoint. In an analysis of individual participant data, for each of 66 studies (total of 186,312 participants), we estimated treatment effects on the total GFR slope, computed from baseline to 3 years, and chronic slope, starting at 3 months after randomization, and on the clinical endpoint (doubling of serum creatinine, GFR < 15 ml min-1 per 1.73 m2 or kidney failure with replacement therapy). We used a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression model to relate treatment effects on GFR slope with those on the clinical endpoint across all studies and by disease groups (diabetes, glomerular diseases, CKD or cardiovascular diseases). Treatment effects on the clinical endpoint were strongly associated with treatment effects on total slope (median coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.97 (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) 0.82-1.00)) and moderately associated with those on chronic slope (R2 = 0.55 (95% BCI 0.25-0.77)). There was no evidence of heterogeneity across disease. Our results support the use of total slope as a primary endpoint for clinical trials of CKD progression.

Impact of COVID-19 on perceived wellbeing, self-management and views of novel modalities of care among medically vulnerable patients in Singapore

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to examine the impact of COVID-19 measures on wellbeing and self-management in medically vulnerable non-COVID patients and their views of novel modalities of care in Singapore.

METHODS

Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, chronic kidney disease, diabetes and cancer were recruited from the SingHealth cluster and national cohort of older adults. Data on demographics, chronic conditions and perceived wellbeing were collected using questionnaire. We performed multivariable regression to examine factors associated with perceived wellbeing. Qualitative interviews were conducted to elicit patient's experience and thematically analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 91 patients participated. Male patients compared with female patients perceived a lower impact of the pandemic on subjective wellbeing. Patients with CVD compared to those having conditions other than CVD perceived a lower impact. Impacts of the pandemic were primarily described in relation to emotional distress and interference in maintaining self-care. Hampering of physical activity featured prominently, but most did not seek alternative ways to maintain activity. Despite general willingness to try novel care modalities, lack of physical interaction and communication difficulties were perceived as main barriers.

DISCUSSION

Findings underline the need to alleviate emotional distress and develop adaptive strategies to empower patients to maintain wellbeing and self-care.

Change in Albuminuria and GFR Slope as Joint Surrogate End Points for Kidney Failure: Implications for Phase 2 Clinical Trials in CKD

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Changes in albuminuria and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression, and studies have demonstrated that each is associated with treatment effects on clinical end points. In this study, the authors sought to develop a conceptual framework that combines both surrogate end points to better predict treatment effects on clinical end points in Phase 2 trials. The results demonstrate that information from the combined treatment effects on albuminuria and GFR slope improves the prediction of treatment effects on the clinical end point for Phase 2 trials with sample sizes between 100 and 200 patients and duration of follow-up ranging from 1 to 2 years. These findings may help inform design of clinical trials for interventions aimed at slowing CKD progression.

BACKGROUND

Changes in log urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression. Whether combining these surrogate end points might strengthen inferences about clinical benefit is unknown.

METHODS

Using Bayesian meta-regressions across 41 randomized trials of CKD progression, we characterized the combined relationship between the treatment effects on the clinical end point (sustained doubling of serum creatinine, GFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , or kidney failure) and treatment effects on UACR change and chronic GFR slope after 3 months. We applied the results to the design of Phase 2 trials on the basis of UACR change and chronic GFR slope in combination.

RESULTS

Treatment effects on the clinical end point were strongly associated with the combination of treatment effects on UACR change and chronic slope. The posterior median meta-regression coefficients for treatment effects were -0.41 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval, -0.64 to -0.17) per 1 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year for the treatment effect on GFR slope and -0.06 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval, -0.90 to 0.77) for the treatment effect on UACR change. The predicted probability of clinical benefit when considering both surrogates was determined primarily by estimated treatment effects on UACR when sample size was small (approximately 60 patients per treatment arm) and follow-up brief (approximately 1 year), with the importance of GFR slope increasing for larger sample sizes and longer follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

In Phase 2 trials of CKD with sample sizes of 100-200 patients per arm and follow-up between 1 and 2 years, combining information from treatment effects on UACR change and GFR slope improved the prediction of treatment effects on clinical end points.

It is strongly recommended to not conduct, fund, or publish research studies that use spot urine samples with estimating equations to assess individuals' sodium (salt) intake in association with health outcomes: a policy statement of the World Hypertension League, International Society of Hypertension and Resolve to Save Lives

Spot urine samples with estimating equations have been used to assess individuals' sodium (salt) intake in association with health outcomes. There is large random and systematic error in estimating sodium intake using this method and spurious health outcome associations. Substantial controversy has resulted from false claims the method is valid. Hence, the World Hypertension League, International Society of Hypertension and Resolve to Save Lives, supported by 21 other health organizations, have issued this policy statement that strongly recommends that research using spot urine samples with estimating equations to assess individuals' sodium (salt) intake in association with health outcomes should not be conducted, funded or published. Literature reviews on the health impacts of reducing dietary sodium that include studies that have used spot and short duration timed urine samples with estimating equations need to explicitly acknowledge that the method is not recommended to be used and is associated with spurious health outcome associations.

Sex disparity in left ventricular hypertrophy in South Asians with hypertension: influence of central obesity and high blood pressure

Women have been reported to be at greater risk of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) than men in South Asia, but whether the sex disparity is affected by central obesity and blood pressure has not been well studied. We examined prospectively the interaction of sex with waist circumference and systolic blood pressure at baseline on LVH measured after a median of 8-year follow-up among 539 individuals with hypertension in Karachi, Pakistan, and found that the risk of LVH for women vs men increased with higher baseline waist circumference and systolic blood pressure. Our results underscore the urgency for public health programs to prevent obesity and control hypertension in women in South Asia.

Addressing global disparities in blood pressure control: perspectives of the International Society of Hypertension

ABSTRACT

Raised blood pressure (BP) is the leading cause of preventable death in the world. Yet, its global prevalence is increasing, and it remains poorly detected, treated, and controlled in both high- and low-resource settings. From the perspective of members of the International Society of Hypertension based in all regions, we reflect on the past, present, and future of hypertension care, highlighting key challenges and opportunities, which are often region-specific. We report that most countries failed to show sufficient improvements in BP control rates over the past three decades, with greater improvements mainly seen in some high-income countries, also reflected in substantial reductions in the burden of cardiovascular disease and deaths. Globally, there are significant inequities and disparities based on resources, sociodemographic environment, and race with subsequent disproportionate hypertension-related outcomes. Additional unique challenges in specific regions include conflict, wars, migration, unemployment, rapid urbanization, extremely limited funding, pollution, COVID-19-related restrictions and inequalities, obesity, and excessive salt and alcohol intake. Immediate action is needed to address suboptimal hypertension care and related disparities on a global scale. We propose a Global Hypertension Care Taskforce including multiple stakeholders and societies to identify and implement actions in reducing inequities, addressing social, commercial, and environmental determinants, and strengthening health systems implement a well-designed customized quality-of-care improvement framework.

Evaluation of Variation in the Performance of GFR Slope as a Surrogate End Point for Kidney Failure in Clinical Trials that Differ by Severity of CKD

BACKGROUND

The GFR slope has been evaluated as a surrogate end point for kidney failure in meta-analyses on a broad collection of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in CKD. These analyses evaluate how accurately a treatment effect on GFR slope predicts a treatment effect on kidney failure. We sought to determine whether severity of CKD in the patient population modifies the performance of GFR slope.

METHODS

We performed Bayesian meta-regression analyses on 66 CKD RCTs to evaluate associations between effects on GFR slope (the chronic slope and the total slope over 3 years, expressed as mean differences in ml/min per 1.73 m2/yr) and those of the clinical end point (doubling of serum creatinine, GFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2, or kidney failure, expressed as a log-hazard ratio), where models allow interaction with variables defining disease severity. We evaluated three measures (baseline GFR in 10 ml/min per 1.73 m2, baseline urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio [UACR] per doubling in mg/g, and CKD progression rate defined as the control arm chronic slope, in ml/min per 1.73 m2/yr) and defined strong evidence for modification when 95% posterior credible intervals for interaction terms excluded zero.

RESULTS

There was no evidence for modification by disease severity when evaluating 3-year total slope (95% credible intervals for the interaction slope: baseline GFR [-0.05 to 0.03]; baseline UACR [-0.02 to 0.04]; CKD progression rate [-0.07 to 0.02]). There was strong evidence for modification in evaluations of chronic slope (95% credible intervals: baseline GFR [0.02 to 0.11]; baseline UACR [-0.11 to -0.02]; CKD progression rate [0.01 to 0.15]).

CONCLUSIONS

These analyses indicate consistency of the performance of total slope over 3 years, which provides further evidence for its validity as a surrogate end point in RCTs representing varied CKD populations.

Longitudinal HbA1c trajectory modelling reveals the association of HbA1c and risk of hospitalization for heart failure for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Inconsistent conclusions in past studies on the association between poor glycaemic control and the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) have been reported largely due to the analysis of non-trajectory-based HbA1c values. Trajectory analysis can incorporate the effects of HbA1c variability across time, which may better elucidate its association with macrovascular complications. Furthermore, studies analysing the relationship between HbA1c trajectories from diabetes diagnosis and the occurrence of HHF are scarce.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study of the SingHealth Diabetes Registry (SDR). 17,389 patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from 2013 to 2016 with clinical records extending to the end of 2019 were included in the latent class growth analysis to extract longitudinal HbA1c trajectories. Association between HbA1c trajectories and risk of first known HHF is quantified with the Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) model.

RESULTS

5 distinct HbA1c trajectories were identified as 1. low stable (36.1%), 2. elevated stable (40.4%), 3. high decreasing (3.5%), 4. high with a sharp decline (10.8%), and 5. moderate decreasing (9.2%) over the study period of 7 years. Poorly controlled HbA1c trajectories (Classes 3, 4, and 5) are associated with a higher risk of HHF. Using the diabetes diagnosis time instead of a commonly used pre-defined study start time or time from recruitment has an impact on HbA1c clustering results.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that tracking the evolution of HbA1c with time has its importance in assessing the HHF risk of T2DM patients, and T2DM diagnosis time as a baseline is strongly recommended in HbA1c trajectory modelling. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to identify an association between HbA1c trajectories and HHF occurrence from diabetes diagnosis time.

Post-intervention acceptability of multicomponent intervention for management of hypertension in rural Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka- a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

COBRA-BPS (Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation-Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), a multicomponent, community health-worker (CHW)-led hypertension management program, has been shown to be effective in rural communities in South Asia. This paper presents the acceptability of COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention among the key stakeholders.

METHODS

We conducted post-implementation interviews of 87 stakeholder including 23 community health workers (CHWs), 19 physicians and 45 patients in 15 rural communities randomized to COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention in in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. We used Theoretical Framework for Acceptability framework (TFA) with a focus on affective attitude, burden, ethicality, intervention coherence, opportunity cost, perceived effectiveness and self-efficacy.

RESULTS

COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention was acceptable to most stakeholders. Despite some concerns about workload, most CHWs were enthusiastic and felt empowered. Physicians appreciated the training sessions and felt trusted by their patients. Patients were grateful to receive the intervention and valued it. However, patients in Pakistan and Bangladesh expressed the need for supplies of free medicines from the primary health facilities, while those in Sri Lanka were concerned about supplies' irregularities. All stakeholders favoured scaling-up COBRA-BPS at a national level.

CONCLUSIONS

COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention is acceptable to the key stakeholders in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Community engagement for national scale-up of COBRA-BPS is likely to be successful in all three countries.

Including measures of chronic kidney disease to improve cardiovascular risk prediction by SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP

AIMS

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention categorizes moderate and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) as high and very-high CVD risk status regardless of other factors like age and does not include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria in its algorithms, systemic coronary risk estimation 2 (SCORE2) and systemic coronary risk estimation 2 in older persons (SCORE2-OP), to predict CVD risk. We developed and validated an 'Add-on' to incorporate CKD measures into these algorithms, using a validated approach.

METHODS

In 3,054 840 participants from 34 datasets, we developed three Add-ons [eGFR only, eGFR + urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) (the primary Add-on), and eGFR + dipstick proteinuria] for SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. We validated C-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI), accounting for competing risk of non-CVD death, in 5,997 719 participants from 34 different datasets.

RESULTS

In the target population of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP without diabetes, the CKD Add-on (eGFR only) and CKD Add-on (eGFR + ACR) improved C-statistic by 0.006 (95%CI 0.004-0.008) and 0.016 (0.010-0.023), respectively, for SCORE2 and 0.012 (0.009-0.015) and 0.024 (0.014-0.035), respectively, for SCORE2-OP. Similar results were seen when we included individuals with diabetes and tested the CKD Add-on (eGFR + dipstick). In 57 485 European participants with CKD, SCORE2 or SCORE2-OP with a CKD Add-on showed a significant NRI [e.g. 0.100 (0.062-0.138) for SCORE2] compared to the qualitative approach in the ESC guideline.

CONCLUSION

Our Add-ons with CKD measures improved CVD risk prediction beyond SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. This approach will help clinicians and patients with CKD refine risk prediction and further personalize preventive therapies for CVD.

Range and Consistency of Cardiovascular Outcomes Reported by Clinical Trials in Kidney Transplant Recipients: A Systematic Review

Cardiovascular disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in kidney transplant recipients. Trial evidence to improve cardiovascular outcomes is limited by inconsistent reporting of outcomes, which may also lack patient-relevance. This study aimed to assess the range and consistency of cardiovascular outcomes reported by contemporary trials in kidney transplant recipients.

Methods

A systematic review of all randomized controlled trials involving adult kidney transplant recipients that reported at least 1 cardiovascular outcome from January 2012 to December 2019 was performed, including Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane, and ClinicalTrials.gov electronic databases. Trial characteristics were extracted and all levels of specification of the cardiovascular outcome measures reported were analyzed (the measure definition, metric' and method of aggregation). Measures assessing a similar aspect of cardiovascular disease were categorized into outcomes.

Results

From 93 eligible trials involving 27 609 participants, 490 outcome measures were identified. The outcome measures were grouped into 38 outcomes. A cardiovascular composite was the most common outcome reported (40 trials, 43%) followed by cardiovascular mortality (42%) and acute coronary syndrome (31%). Cardiovascular composite was also the most heterogeneous outcome with 77 measures reported followed by cardiovascular mortality (n = 58) and inflammatory biomarkers (n = 51). The most common cardiovascular composite outcome components reported were major cardiovascular events (18 trials), stroke unspecified (11 trials), and myocardial infarction unspecified (10 trials).

Conclusions

There is substantial heterogeneity in cardiovascular outcome reporting in kidney transplant trials.

Defining measures of kidney function in observational studies using routine health care data: methodological and reporting considerations

The availability of electronic health records and access to a large number of routine measurements of serum creatinine and urinary albumin enhance the possibilities for epidemiologic research in kidney disease. However, the frequency of health care use and laboratory testing is determined by health status and indication, imposing certain challenges when identifying patients with kidney injury or disease, when using markers of kidney function as covariates, or when evaluating kidney outcomes. Depending on the specific research question, this may influence the interpretation, generalizability, and/or validity of study results. This review illustrates the heterogeneity of working definitions of kidney disease in the scientific literature and discusses advantages and limitations of the most commonly used approaches using 3 examples. We summarize ways to identify and overcome possible biases and conclude by proposing a framework for reporting definitions of exposures and outcomes in studies of kidney disease using routinely collected health care data.

Opportunities and challenges to non-communicable disease (NCD) research and training in Pakistan: a qualitative study from Pakistan

INTRODUCTION

Most of the global non-communicable disease (NCD)-related death burden is borne by low and middle-income countries (LMICs). In LMICs like Pakistan, however, a major gap in responding to NCDs is a lack of high-quality research leading to policy development and implementation of NCDs. To assess institutional opportunities and constraints to NCD research and training we conducted a situational analysis for NCD research and training at Aga Khan University Pakistan.

METHODS

We conducted a descriptive exploratory study using grounded theory as a qualitative approach: semistructured interviews of 16 NCD stakeholders (three excluded) and two focus group discussions with postgraduate and undergraduate trainees were conducted. A simple thematic analysis was done where themes were identified, and then recurring ideas were critically placed in their specific themes and refined based on the consensus of the investigators.

RESULTS

The major themes derived were priority research areas in NCDs; methods to improve NCD research integration; barriers to NCD research in LMICs like Pakistan; design of NCD research programme and career paths; and NCD prevention at mass level, policy and link to the government. In general, participants opined that while there was an appetite for NCD research and training, but few high-quality research training programmes in NCDs existed, such programmes needed to be established. The ideal NCD research and training programmes would have in-built protected time, career guidance and dedicated mentorship. Most participants identified cardiovascular diseases as a priority thematic area and health information technology and data science as key methodological approaches to be introduced into research training.

CONCLUSION

We conclude from this qualitative study on NCD research and training that high-quality research training programmes for NCDs are rare. Such programmes need to be established with in-built protected time, career guidance and mentorship for the trainees to improve their research capacity in Pakistan.

Baseline characteristics of participants in the Pre-Diabetes Interventions and Continued Tracking to Ease-out Diabetes (Pre-DICTED) Program

OBJECTIVE

The Pre-Diabetes Interventions and Continued Tracking to Ease-out Diabetes (Pre-DICTED) Program is a diabetes prevention trial comparing the diabetes conversion rate at 3 years between the intervention group, which receives the incentivized lifestyle intervention program with stepwise addition of metformin, and the control group, which receives the standard of care. We describe the baseline characteristics and compare Pre-DICTED participants with other diabetes prevention trials cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Participants were aged between 21 and 64 years, overweight (body mass index (BMI) ≥23.0 kg/m²), and had pre-diabetes (impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and/or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT)).

RESULTS

A total of 751 participants (53.1% women) were randomized. At baseline, mean (SD) age was 52.5 (8.5) years and mean BMI (SD) was 29.0 (4.6) kg/m². Twenty-three per cent had both IFG and IGT, 63.9% had isolated IGT, and 13.3% had isolated IFG. Ethnic Asian Indian participants were more likely to report a family history of diabetes and had a higher waist circumference, compared with Chinese and Malay participants. Women were less likely than men to meet the physical activity recommendations (≥150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week), and dietary intake varied with both sex and ethnicity. Compared with other Asian diabetes prevention studies, the Pre-DICTED cohort had a higher mean age and BMI.

CONCLUSION

The Pre-DICTED cohort represents subjects at high risk of diabetes conversion. The study will evaluate the effectiveness of a community-based incentivized lifestyle intervention program in an urban Asian context.

Strengthening urban primary healthcare service delivery using electronic health technologies: A qualitative study in urban Nepal

Background

Nepal is a South Asian country with a high burden of non-communicable diseases. Electronic health technologies are a promising strategy to mitigate the rising burden of non-communicable diseases by strengthening primary healthcare center service delivery. However, electronic health implementation in Nepal is limited. Furthermore, electronic health use at the primary healthcare center level is chronically understudied. This qualitative study seeks to understand the perceived awareness, benefits, and determinants of electronic health uptake in Nepal, focusing on primary healthcare center-level non-communicable disease management.

Methods

We conducted in-depth interviews with 27 participants including policymakers, health experts, facility administrators, providers, and non-communicable diseases patients in 2019. We selected six urban primary healthcare center facilities via cluster convenience sampling for recruiting facility administrators, providers, and patients, and used convenience sampling to recruit policymakers and experts. We conducted thematic data analysis inductively and deductively using the electronic health readiness assessment framework to understand perceived barriers and facilitators of electronic health implementation.

Results

While there was general awareness and acceptance of electronic health, multiple barriers impede readiness for implementation. These include policy making gaps, language barriers, low user technical literacy, concerns of overreliance on technology, and inadequate training for administrators and providers. Stakeholder suggestions include creating electronic health interfaces that meet the needs of end users (providers and patients), providing training to enable end users to effectively use electronic health technologies, and strong policy support at the national level.

Conclusion

We identify several determinants for effectively promoting the use of electronic health for non-communicable diseases service delivery at the primary healthcare center level in Nepal.

Healthcare professionals' perspectives on facilitators of and barriers to CKD management in primary care: a qualitative study in Singapore clinics

INTRODUCTION

The burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is rising globally including in Singapore. Primary care is the first point of contact for most patients with early stages of CKD. However, several barriers to optimal CKD management exist. Knowing healthcare professionals' (HCPs) perspectives is important to understand how best to strengthen CKD services in the primary care setting. Integrating a theory-based framework, we explored HCPs' perspectives on the facilitators of and barriers to CKD management in primary care clinics in Singapore.

METHODS

In-depth interviews were conducted on a purposive sample of 20 HCPs including 13 physicians, 2 nurses and 1 pharmacist from three public primary care polyclinics, and 4 nephrologists from one referral hospital. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim and thematically analyzed underpinned by the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) version 2.

RESULTS

Numerous facilitators of and barriers to CKD management identified. HCPs perceived insufficient attention is given to CKD in primary care and highlighted several barriers including knowledge and practice gaps, ineffective CKD diagnosis disclosure, limitations in decision-making for nephrology referrals, consultation time, suboptimal care coordination, and lack of CKD awareness and self-management skills among patients. Nevertheless, intensive CKD training of primary care physicians, structured CKD-care pathways, multidisciplinary team-based care, and prioritizing nephrology referrals with risk-based assessment were key facilitators. Participants underscored the importance of improving awareness and self-management skills among patients. Primary care providers expressed willingness to manage early-stage CKD as a collaborative care model with nephrologists. Our findings provide valuable insights to design targeted interventions to enhance CKD management in primary care in Singapore that may be relevant to other countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The are several roadblocks to improving CKD management in primary care settings warranting urgent attention. Foremost, CKD deserves greater priority from HCPs and health planners. Multipronged approaches should urgently address gaps in care coordination, patient-physician communication, and knowledge. Strategies could focus on intensive CKD-oriented training for primary care physicians and building novel team-based care models integrating structured CKD management, risk-based nephrology referrals coupled with education and motivational counseling for patients. Such concerted efforts are likely to improve outcomes of patients with CKD and reduce the ESKD burden.

Acute Treatment Effects on GFR in Randomized Clinical Trials of Kidney Disease Progression

BACKGROUND

Acute changes in GFR can occur after initiation of interventions targeting progression of CKD. These acute changes complicate the interpretation of long-term treatment effects.

METHODS

To assess the magnitude and consistency of acute effects in randomized clinical trials and explore factors that might affect them, we performed a meta-analysis of 53 randomized clinical trials for CKD progression, enrolling 56,413 participants with at least one estimated GFR measurement by 6 months after randomization. We defined acute treatment effects as the mean difference in GFR slope from baseline to 3 months between randomized groups. We performed univariable and multivariable metaregression to assess the effect of intervention type, disease state, baseline GFR, and albuminuria on the magnitude of acute effects.

RESULTS

The mean acute effect across all studies was -0.21 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (95% confidence interval, -0.63 to 0.22) over 3 months, with substantial heterogeneity across interventions (95% coverage interval across studies, -2.50 to +2.08 ml/min per 1.73 m2). We observed negative average acute effects in renin angiotensin system blockade, BP lowering, and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor trials, and positive acute effects in trials of immunosuppressive agents. Larger negative acute effects were observed in trials with a higher mean baseline GFR.

CONCLUSION

The magnitude and consistency of acute GFR effects vary across different interventions, and are larger at higher baseline GFR. Understanding the nature and magnitude of acute effects can help inform the optimal design of randomized clinical trials evaluating disease progression in CKD.

Patient Decision Aid Development for Older Adults With End-Stage Kidney Disease in Singapore

Introduction

In managing end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), older adults face a decision regarding whether to undergo dialysis or manage symptoms through kidney supportive care (KSC). This article describes the development of a patient decision aid (PDA) that is designed specifically for older adults with ESKD.

Methods

The decision context of the PDA was to choose a treatment between hemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, and KSC. The development process used insights obtained from qualitative interviews with patients, informal caregivers, and health care providers. The PDA was then developed in English and Mandarin and was pilot-tested with patients, caregivers, and health care providers. We finalized the PDA based on feedback from pilot testing and performed a preliminary evaluation based on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDASi v4.0) criteria.

Results

The final PDA consists of 2 booklets and a video. During pilot testing, patients and caregivers reported high levels of ease of understanding and usefulness with ≥92.5% providing agree/strongly agree responses for the "Content"-related criteria, and ≥75% providing agree/strongly agree responses for the "Development Process and Effectiveness"-related criteria. The final PDA met 10 of 12 IPDASi v4.0 criteria.

Conclusions

This PDA was found useful during pilot-testing. It will be used during renal counseling in Singapore to help older adults with ESKD and their caregivers make informed decisions on which treatment option is best for the patients.

Association of Systolic and Diastolic Blood Pressure With All-Cause Mortality Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Prospective Observational Study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the association of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) with mortality among older adults in Singapore.

METHODS

Association of SBP and DBP measured in 2009 for 4443 older adults (69.5±7.4 years; 60-97 years) participating in a nationally representative study with mortality risk through end-December 2015 was assessed using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Higher mortality risk was observed at the lower and upper extremes of SBP and DBP. With SBP of 100-119 mmHg as the reference, multivariable mortality hazard ratios [HRs (95% confidence interval)] were SBP <100 mmHg: 2.41 (1.23-4.72); SBP 160-179 mmHg: 1.51 (1.02-2.22); and SBP ≥180 mmHg: 1.78 (1.12-2.81). With DBP of 70-79 mmHg as the reference, HRs were DBP <50 mmHg: 2.41 (1.28-4.54) and DBP ≥110 mmHg: 2.16 (1.09-4.31).

DISCUSSION

Management of high blood pressure among older adults will likely reduce their mortality risk. However, the association of excessively low SBP and DBP values with mortality risk needs further evaluation.

Trends in cardiovascular risk factors and treatment goals in patients with diabetes in Singapore-analysis of the SingHealth Diabetes Registry

Background

Asian populations are at high risk of diabetes and related vascular complications. We examined risk factor control, preventive care, and disparities in these trends among adults with diabetes in Singapore.

Methods

The sample included 209,930 adults with diabetes aged≥18 years from a multi-institutional SingHealth Diabetes Registry between 2013 and 2019 in Singapore. We performed logistic generalized estimating equations (GEEs) regression analysis and used linear mixed effect modeling to evaluate the temporal trends.

Results

Between 2013 and 2019, the unadjusted control rates of glycated hemoglobin (4.8%, 95%CI (4.4 to 5.1) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (11.5%, 95%CI (11.1 to 11.8)) improved, but blood pressure (BP) control worsened (systolic BP (SBP)/diastolic BP (DBP) <140/90 mmHg: -6.6%, 95%CI (-7.0 to -6.2)). These trends persisted after accounting for the demographics including age, gender, ethnicity, and housing type. The 10-year adjusted risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) (3.4%, 95% (3.3 to 3.5)) and stroke (10.4%, 95% CI (10.3 to 10.5)) increased. In 2019, the control rates of glycated hemoglobin, BP (SBP/DBP<140/90 mmHg), LDL-C, each, and all three risk factors together, accounted for 51.5%, 67.7%, 72.2%, and 24.4%, respectively.

Conclusions

Trends in risk factor control improved for glycated hemoglobin and LDL-C, but worsened for BP among diabetic adults in Singapore from 2013 to 2019. Control rates for all risk factors remain inadequate.

Effect of a Multicomponent Intervention on Antihypertensive Medication Intensification in Rural South Asia: Post Hoc Analysis of a Cluster RCT

BACKGROUND

Inadequate treatment of hypertension is a widespread problem, especially in South Asian countries where cardiovascular disease mortality rates are high. We aimed to explore the effect of a multicomponent intervention (MCI) on antihypertensive medication intensification among rural South Asians with hypertension.

METHODS

A post hoc analysis of a 2-year cluster-randomized controlled trial including 2,645 hypertensives aged ≥40 years from 30 rural communities, 10 each, in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Independent assessors collected information on participants' self-reports and physical inspection of medications. The main outcomes were the changes from baseline to 24 months in the following: (i) the therapeutic intensity score (TIS) for all (and class-specific) antihypertensive medications; (ii) the number of antihypertensive medications in all trial participants.

RESULTS

At 24 months, the mean increase in the TIS score of all antihypertensive medications was 0.11 in the MCI group and 0.03 in the control group, with a between-group difference in the increase of 0.08 (95% confidence interval (CI, 0.03, 0.12); P = 0.002). In MCI compared with controls, a greater increase in the TIS of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockers (0.05; 95% CI (0.02, 0.07); P < 0.001) and calcium channel blockers (0.03; 95% CI (0.00, 0.05); P = 0.031), and in the number of antihypertensive medications (0.11, 95% CI (0.02, 0.19); P = 0.016) was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, MCI led to a greater increase in antihypertensive medication intensification compared with the usual care among adults with hypertension.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

Trial Number NCT02657746.

Chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease is a progressive disease with no cure and high morbidity and mortality that occurs commonly in the general adult population, especially in people with diabetes and hypertension. Preservation of kidney function can improve outcomes and can be achieved through non-pharmacological strategies (eg, dietary and lifestyle adjustments) and chronic kidney disease-targeted and kidney disease-specific pharmacological interventions. A plant-dominant, low-protein, and low-salt diet might help to mitigate glomerular hyperfiltration and preserve renal function for longer, possibly while also leading to favourable alterations in acid-base homoeostasis and in the gut microbiome. Pharmacotherapies that alter intrarenal haemodynamics (eg, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone pathway modulators and SGLT2 [SLC5A2] inhibitors) can preserve kidney function by reducing intraglomerular pressure independently of blood pressure and glucose control, whereas other novel agents (eg, non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists) might protect the kidney through anti-inflammatory or antifibrotic mechanisms. Some glomerular and cystic kidney diseases might benefit from disease-specific therapies. Managing chronic kidney disease-associated cardiovascular risk, minimising the risk of infection, and preventing acute kidney injury are crucial interventions for these patients, given the high burden of complications, associated morbidity and mortality, and the role of non-conventional risk factors in chronic kidney disease. When renal replacement therapy becomes inevitable, an incremental transition to dialysis can be considered and has been proposed to possibly preserve residual kidney function longer. There are similarities and distinctions between kidney-preserving care and supportive care. Additional studies of dietary and pharmacological interventions and development of innovative strategies are necessary to ensure optimal kidney-preserving care and to achieve greater longevity and better health-related quality of life for these patients.

The Pre-Diabetes Interventions and Continued Tracking to Ease-out Diabetes (Pre-DICTED) program: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Community-based diabetes prevention programs varied widely in effectiveness, and the intervention strategy consisting of lifestyle interventions, stepwise addition of metformin, and financial incentives has not been studied in real-world clinical practice settings. The Pre-Diabetes Interventions and Continued Tracking to Ease-out Diabetes (Pre-DICTED) trial is a pragmatic trial that aims to compare the effectiveness of a community-based stepwise diabetes prevention program with added financial incentives (intervention) versus the standard of care (control) in reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes over 3 years among overweight or obese individuals with pre-diabetes.

METHODS

This is an open-label, 1:1 randomized controlled trial which aims to recruit 846 adult individuals with isolated impaired fasting glucose (IFG), isolated impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), or both IFG and IGT from Singapore. Intervention arm participants attend 12 group-based sessions (2 nutrition workshops, 9 exercise sessions, and a goal-setting workshop) delivered at community sites (weeks 1 to 6), receive weekly physical activity and nutrition recommendations delivered by printed worksheets (weeks 7 to 12), and receive monthly health tips delivered by text messages (months 4 to 36). From month 6 onwards, intervention arm participants who remain at the highest risk of conversion to diabetes are prescribed metformin. Intervention arm participants are also eligible for a payment/rewards program with incentives tied to attendance at the group sessions and achievement of the weight loss target (5% of baseline weight). All participants are assessed at baseline, month 3, month 6, and every 6 months subsequently till month 36. The primary endpoint is the proportion of participants with diabetes at 3 years. Secondary endpoints include the mean change from baseline at 3 years in fasting plasma glucose, 2-hour plasma glucose, HbA1c, body weight, body mass index, physical activity, and dietary intake.

DISCUSSION

The Pre-DICTED trial will provide evidence of the effectiveness and feasibility of a community-based stepwise diabetes prevention program with added financial incentives for individuals with pre-diabetes in Singapore. The study will provide data for a future cost-effectiveness analysis, which will be used to inform policymakers of the value of a nationwide implementation of the diabetes prevention program.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03503942 . Retrospectively registered on April 20, 2018. Protocol version: 5.0 Date: 1 March 2019.

Socioeconomic status and ethnic variation associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients with uncontrolled hypertension in Singapore

INTRODUCTION

The burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and related vascular complications is particularly high in Asians and ethnic minorities living in the West. However, the association of T2DM with socioeconomic status (SES) and ethnicity has not been widely studied in populations living in Asia. Therefore, we investigated these associations among the multiethnic population with uncontrolled hypertension in Singapore.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In a cross-sectional study using baseline data of a 2-year randomized trial in Singapore, we obtained demographic, SES, lifestyle and clinical factors from 915 patients aged ≥40 years with uncontrolled hypertension. T2DM was defined as having either: (i) self-reported 'physician-diagnosed diabetes confirmed through medical records' or taking antidiabetes medications, (ii) fasting blood glucose levels ≥7.0 mmol/dL or (iii) hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%. The SES proxies included education, employment status, housing ownership and housing type, and the ethnicities were Chinese, Malays and Indians. Logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the association of T2DM with SES and ethnicity.

RESULTS

Higher proportion of T2DM was observed in Malays (40.0%) and Indians (56.0%) than Chinese (26.8%) (p<0.001), and in patients with lower SES (ranging from 25.7% to 66.2% using different proxies) than those with higher SES (19.4% to 32.0%). In a multivariate model comprising age, gender, ethnicity and SES, Malay ethnicity (OR 1.59; 95% CI 1.04 to 2.44, p=0.031) or Indian ethnicity (OR 3.65; 95% CI 2.25 to 5.91, p<0.001) versus Chinese and housing type (residing in one to three rooms (OR 2.00; 95% CI 1.16 to 3.43, p=0.012) or four to five rooms public housing (OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.13 to 3.04, p=0.013) vs private housing) were associated with higher T2DM odds. The associations of Indians and one to three rooms public housing with T2DM met the significance after accounting for multiple testing (p≤0.0125).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that housing type and ethnic variation are independently associated with higher T2DM risk in patients with uncontrolled hypertension in Singapore. Further studies are needed to validate our results.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02972619.

Performance and Determinants of Serum Creatinine and Cystatin C-Based GFR Estimating Equations in South Asians

INTRODUCTION

The creatinine-based Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) equation was calibrated for the general Pakistan population (eGFRcr-PK) to eliminate bias and improve accuracy. Cystatin C-based CKD-EPI equations (eGFRcys and eGFRcr-cys) have not been assessed in this population, and non-GFR determinants of cystatin C are unknown.

METHODS

We assessed eGFRcys, eGFRcr-cys, and non-GFR determinants of cystatin C in a cross-sectional study of 557 participants (≥40 years of age) from Pakistan. We compared bias (median difference in measured GFR [mGFR] and eGFR), precision (interquartile range [IQR] of differences), accuracy (percentage of eGFR within 30% of mGFR), root mean square error (RMSE), and classification of mGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] and net reclassification index [NRI]) among eGFR equations.

RESULTS

We found that eGFRcys underestimated mGFR (bias, 12.7 ml/min/1.73 m2 [95% confidence interval {CI} 10.7-15.2]). eGFRcr-cys did not improve performance over eGFRcr-PK in precision (P = 0.52), accuracy (P = 0.58), or RMSE (P = 0.49). Results were consistent among subgroups by age, sex, smoking, body mass index (BMI), and eGFR. NRI was 7.31% (95% CI 1.52%-13.1%; P < 0.001) for eGFRcr-cys versus eGFRcr-PK, but AUC was not improved (0.92 [95% CI 0.87-0.96] vs. 0.90 [95% CI 0.86-0.95]; P = 0.056). Non-GFR determinants of higher cystatin C included male sex, smoking, higher BMI and total body fat, and lower lean body mass.

CONCLUSION

eGFRcys underestimated mGFR in South Asians and eGFRcr-cys did not offer substantial advantage compared with eGFRcr-PK. Future studies are warranted to better understand the large bias in eGFRcys and non-GFR determinants of cystatin C in South Asians.

Budget impact and cost-effectiveness analyses of the COBRA-BPS multicomponent hypertension management programme in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND

COBRA-BPS (Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation-Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), a multi-component hypertension management programme that is led by community health workers, has been shown to be efficacious at reducing systolic blood pressure in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. In this study, we aimed to assess the budget required to scale up the programme and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

METHODS

In a cluster-randomised trial of COBRA-BPS, individuals aged 40 years or older with hypertension who lived in 30 rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka were deemed eligible for inclusion. Costs were quantified prospectively at baseline and during 2 years of the trial. All costs, including labour, rental, materials and supplies, and contracted services were recorded, stratified by programme activity. Incremental costs of scaling up COBRA-BPS to all eligible adults in areas covered by community health workers were estimated from the health ministry (public payer) perspective.

FINDINGS

Between April 1, 2016, and Feb 28, 2017, 11 510 individuals were screened and 2645 were enrolled and included in the study. Participants were examined between May 8, 2016, and March 31, 2019. The first-year per-participant costs for COBRA-BPS were US$10·65 for Bangladesh, $10·25 for Pakistan, and $6·42 for Sri Lanka. Per-capita costs were $0·63 for Bangladesh, $0·29 for Pakistan, and $1·03 for Sri Lanka. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were $3430 for Bangladesh, $2270 for Pakistan, and $4080 for Sri Lanka, per cardiovascular disability-adjusted life year averted, which showed COBRA-BPS to be cost-effective in all three countries relative to the WHO-CHOICE threshold of three times gross domestic product per capita in each country. Using this threshold, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves predicted that the probability of COBRA-BPS being cost-effective is 79·3% in Bangladesh, 85·2% in Pakistan, and 99·8% in Sri Lanka.

INTERPRETATION

The low cost of scale-up and the cost-effectiveness of COBRA-BPS suggest that this programme is a viable strategy for responding to the growing cardiovascular disease epidemic in rural communities in low-income and middle-income countries where community health workers are present, and that it should qualify as a priority intervention across rural settings in south Asia and in other countries with similar demographics and health systems to those examined in this study.

FUNDING

The UK Department of Health and Social Care, the UK Department for International Development, the Global Challenges Research Fund, the UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust.

Statistical analysis plan for management of hypertension and multiple risk factors to enhance cardiovascular health in Singapore: the SingHypertension pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease (O'Lone E, Viecelli AK, Craig JC, Tong A, Sautenet B, Herrington WG, et al., Am J Kidney Dis 76(1):109-20, 2020) remains the leading cause of death in Singapore. Uncontrolled hypertension confers the highest attributable risk of CVD and remains a significant public health issue with sub-optimal blood pressure (BP) control rates. The aim of the trial is to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a multicomponent intervention (MCI) versus usual care on lowering BP among adults with uncontrolled hypertension visiting primary care clinics in Singapore. This article describes the statistical analysis plan for the primary and secondary objectives related to intervention effectiveness.

METHODS

The study is a cluster randomized trial enrolling 1000 participants with uncontrolled hypertension aged ≥ 40 years from eight primary care clinics in Singapore. The unit of randomization is the clinic, with eight clusters (clinics) randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either MCI or usual care. All participants will be assessed at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months with measurements of systolic and diastolic BP, antihypertensive and statin medication use, medication adherence, physical activity level, anthropometric parameters, smoking status, and dietary habits. The primary objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of MCI versus usual care on mean SBP at the 2-year follow-up. The primary outcome is SBP at 24 months. SBP at baseline, 12, and 24 months will be modeled at the subject level using a likelihood-based, linear mixed-effects model repeated measures (MMRM) analysis with treatment group and follow-up as fixed effects, random cluster (clinic) effects, Gaussian error distribution, and adjustment to degrees of freedom using the Satterthwaite approximation. Secondary outcomes will be analyzed using a similar modeling approach incorporating generalized techniques appropriate for the type of outcome.

DISCUSSION

The trial will allow us to determine whether the MCI has an impact on BP and cardiovascular risk factors over a 2-year follow-up period and inform recommendations for health planners in scaling up these strategies for the benefit of society at large. A pre-specified and pre-published statistical analysis plan mitigates reporting bias and data driven approaches.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02972619 . Registered on 23 November 2016.

Identifying critically important cardiovascular outcomes for trials in hemodialysis: an international survey with patients, caregivers and health professionals

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in people on hemodialysis (HD). Cardiovascular outcomes are reported infrequently and inconsistently across trials in HD. This study aimed to identify the priorities of patients/caregivers and health professionals (HPs) for CVD outcomes to be incorporated into a core outcome set reported in all HD trials.

METHODS

In an international online survey, participants rated the absolute importance of 10 cardiovascular outcomes (derived from a systematic review) on a 9-point Likert scale, with 7-9 being critically important. The relative importance was determined using a best-worst scale. Likert means, medians and proportions and best-worst preference scores were calculated for each outcome. Comments were thematically analyzed.

RESULTS

Participants included 127 (19%) patients/caregivers and 549 (81%) HPs from 53 countries, of whom 530 (78%) completed the survey in English and 146 (22%) in Chinese. All but one cardiovascular outcome ('valve replacement') was rated as critically important (Likert 7-9) by all participants; 'sudden cardiac death', 'heart attack', 'stroke' and 'heart failure' were all rated at the top by patients/caregivers (median Likert score 9). Patients/caregivers ranked the same four outcomes as the most important outcomes with mean preference scores of 6.2 (95% confidence interval 4.8-7.5), 5.9 (4.6-7.2), 5.3 (4.0-6.6) and 4.9 (3.6-6.3), respectively. The same four outcomes were ranked most highly by HPs. We identified five themes underpinning the prioritization of outcomes: 'clinical equipoise and potential for intervention', 'specific or attributable to HD', 'severity or impact on the quality of life', 'strengthen knowledge and education', and 'inextricably linked burden and risk'.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients and HPs believe that all cardiovascular outcomes are of critical importance but consistently identify sudden cardiac death, myocardial infarction, stroke and heart failure as the most important outcomes to be measured in all HD trials.

Healthful dietary patterns and risk of end-stage kidney disease: the Singapore Chinese Health Study

BACKGROUND

Although adherence to healthful dietary patterns has been associated with a lower risk of kidney function decline in Western populations, evidence in Asian populations remains scanty.

OBJECTIVES

We examined predefined dietary patterns, namely, the Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010), the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), and the alternate Mediterranean diet (aMED), in relation to risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD).

METHODS

We included 56,985 Chinese adults (aged 45-74 y) in the Singapore Chinese Health Study who were free of cancer, stroke, coronary artery disease, and ESKD at recruitment (1993-1998). Dietary pattern scores were calculated based on a validated 165-item FFQ. AHEI-2010 and aMED scores were modified by excluding the alcohol intake component because daily drinking has been associated with a higher risk of ESKD in our study population. We identified 1026 ESKD cases over a median follow-up of 17.5 y via linkage with the nationwide Singapore Renal Registry. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to compute HRs and their 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Higher scores of all 3 dietary patterns were associated with lower ESKD risk in a dose-dependent manner. Compared with the lowest quintiles, the multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of ESKD were 0.75 (0.61, 0.92) for the highest quintile of AHEI-2010, 0.67 (0.54, 0.84) for DASH, and 0.73 (0.59, 0.91) for aMED (all P-trend ≤ 0.004). These inverse associations were stronger with increasing BMI (in kg/m2), and the HRs for the diet-ESKD association were lowest in the obese (BMI ≥ 27.5), followed by the overweight (BMI = 25 to <27.5) participants, compared with those in lower BMI categories; the P-interaction values between BMI and diet scores were 0.03 for AHEI-2010, 0.004 for aMED, and 0.06 for DASH.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to healthful dietary patterns was associated with a lower ESKD risk in an Asian population, especially in overweight or obese individuals.

Factors associated with psychological distress during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the predominantly general population: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has escalated the burden of psychological distress. We aimed to evaluate factors associated with psychological distress among the predominantly general population during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, and World Health Organization COVID-19 databases (Dec 2019-15 July 2020). We included cross-sectional studies that reported factors associated with psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic. Primary outcomes were self-reported symptoms of anxiety and depression. Random-effects models were used to pool odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (#CRD42020186735).

FINDINGS

We included 68 studies comprising 288,830 participants from 19 countries. The prevalence of anxiety and depression was 33% (95% CI: 28%-39%) and 30% (26%-36%). Women versus men (OR: 1.48 [95% CI: 1.29-1.71; I2 = 90.8%]), younger versus older (< versus ≥35 years) adults (1.20 [1.13-1.26]; I2 = 91.7%), living in rural versus urban areas (1.13 [1.00-1.29]; I2 = 82.9%), lower versus higher socioeconomic status (e.g. lower versus higher income: 1.45 [1.24-1.69; I2 = 82.3%]) were associated with higher anxiety odds. These factors (except for residential area) were also associated with higher depression odds. Furthermore, higher COVID-19 infection risk (suspected/confirmed cases, living in hard-hit areas, having pre-existing physical or mental conditions) and longer media exposure were associated with higher odds of anxiety and depression.

INTERPRETATION

One in three adults in the predominantly general population have COVID-19 related psychological distress. Concerted efforts are urgently needed for interventions in high-risk populations to reduce urban-rural, socioeconomic and gender disparities in COVID-19 related psychological distress.

Prescribing Patterns of Antihypertensive Medications in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

Hypertension is highly prevalent, but its pharmacological management has not been well evaluated in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This review examined the prescribing patterns of antihypertensives in LMICs. Data were extracted from a total of 26 studies spanning the time period 2000 to 2018. In 10 studies, calcium channel blockers (CCBs) were the most frequently prescribed medication for managing hypertension (range = 33% to 72%); in six studies, renin angiotensin system (RAS) blockers (range = 25% to 83%); in five studies, diuretics (range = 39% to 99%); and in five studies, β-blockers (BBs; range = 26% to 49%) were the most commonly prescribed antihypertensive medications. Prescribing sedatives and sublingual administration of captopril for controlling hypertension was also reported in 3 studies. Only 10 studies presented their findings in light of national or international guidelines. This review calls for further antihypertensive utilization and dispensation studies and a better understanding of clinician's perception and practice of hypertension management guidelines in LMICs.

Perceived barriers and facilitators to chronic kidney disease care among patients in Singapore: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

To outline the facilitators and barriers to patients' self-management of predialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD).

DESIGN

Qualitative.

SETTING

Three polyclinics in a public primary care institution in Singapore.

PARTICIPANTS

20 patients entered and completed the study. Inclusion criteria were: (1) English speaking, (2) aged 40 years and above, (3) identified by clinical coding as 'DM (diabetes mellitus) nephropathy-overt' and 'DM nephropathy-incipient', by their physicians in the polyclinic, with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m² (based on electronic health records) and (4) aware of their CKD illness. Exclusion criteria were: (1) receiving dialysis or had received a kidney transplant, (2) suffered from any visual, auditory or cognitive impairment which could hinder their ability to participate in the study or (3) pregnant.

RESULTS

We found that the major barriers to CKD management were a lack of knowledge and awareness of CKD, a passive attitude toward self-management and insufficient patient-physician communication. Major facilitators included patient trust and satisfaction with the physician and family support. Many patients reported that there was an overload of information and too little guidance on how to manage their condition, especially regarding dietary recommendations.

CONCLUSION

We identified several barriers and facilitators to the management of predialysis CKD among patients. A multi-pronged approach for raising CKD awareness is required: improving patient-physician communication, implementing CKD workshops and home-visits and disseminating accurate online information about CKD. Strategies should also focus on increasing patient engagement and optimising family support by involving family members in patients' care. Furthermore, clear dietary recommendations and patient-specific advice are needed to empower patients to manage their own condition.

Incorporating kidney disease measures into cardiovascular risk prediction: Development and validation in 9 million adults from 72 datasets

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) are frequently assessed in clinical practice and improve the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet most major clinical guidelines do not have a standardized approach for incorporating these measures into CVD risk prediction. "CKD Patch" is a validated method to calibrate and improve the predicted risk from established equations according to CKD measures.

METHODS

Utilizing data from 4,143,535 adults from 35 datasets, we developed several "CKD Patches" incorporating eGFR and albuminuria, to enhance prediction of risk of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and CVD mortality by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The risk enhancement by CKD Patch was determined by the deviation between individual CKD measures and the values expected from their traditional CVD risk factors and the hazard ratios for eGFR and albuminuria. We then validated this approach among 4,932,824 adults from 37 independent datasets, comparing the original PCE and SCORE equations (recalibrated in each dataset) to those with addition of CKD Patch.

FINDINGS

We confirmed the prediction improvement with the CKD Patch for CVD mortality beyond SCORE and ASCVD beyond PCE in validation datasets (Δc-statistic 0.027 [95% CI 0.018-0.036] and 0.010 [0.007-0.013] and categorical net reclassification improvement 0.080 [0.032-0.127] and 0.056 [0.044-0.067], respectively). The median (IQI) of the ratio of predicted risk for CVD mortality with CKD Patch vs. the original prediction with SCORE was 2.64 (1.89-3.40) in very high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 30-44 ml/min/1.73m² with albuminuria ≥30 mg/g), 1.86 (1.48-2.44) in high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 45-59 ml/min/1.73m² with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), and 1.37 (1.14-1.69) in moderate risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 60-89 ml/min/1.73m² with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), indicating considerable risk underestimation in CKD with SCORE. The corresponding estimates for ASCVD with PCE were 1.55 (1.37-1.81), 1.24 (1.10-1.54), and 1.21 (0.98-1.46).

INTERPRETATION

The "CKD Patch" can be used to quantitatively enhance ASCVD and CVD mortality risk prediction equations recommended in major US and European guidelines according to CKD measures, when available.

FUNDING

US National Kidney Foundation and the NIDDK.