Occupational Sitting Time, Leisure Physical Activity, and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality

Importance

For the first time, the 2020 World Health Organization guidelines on physical activity recommended reducing sedentary behaviors owing to their health consequences. Less is known on the specific association of prolonged occupational sitting with health, especially in the context of low physical activity engagement.

Objective

To quantify health risks associated with prolonged occupational sitting and to determine whether there is a certain threshold of physical activity that may attenuate it.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective cohort study included participants in a health surveillance program in Taiwan who were followed-up between 1996 and 2017. Data on occupational sitting, leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) habits, lifestyle, and metabolic parameters were collected. Data analysis was performed in December 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality associated with 3 occupational sitting volumes (mostly sitting, alternating sitting and nonsitting, and mostly nonsitting) were analyzed applying multivariable Cox regression models to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for all participants and by subgroups, including 5 LTPA levels and a personal activity intelligence (PAI)-oriented metric. Deaths occurring within the initial 2 years of follow-up were excluded to prevent reverse causality.

Results

The total cohort included 481 688 participants (mean [SD] age, 39.3 [12.8] years; 256 077 women [53.2%]). The study recorded 26 257 deaths during a mean (SD) follow-up period of 12.85 (5.67) years. After adjusting for sex, age, education, smoking, drinking, and body mass index, individuals who mostly sat at work had a 16% higher all-cause mortality risk (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.11-1.20) and a 34% increased mortality risk from CVD (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.22-1.46) compared with those who were mostly nonsitting at work. Individuals alternating sitting and nonsitting at work did not experience increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with individuals mostly nonsitting at work (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.97-1.05). For individuals mostly sitting at work and engaging in low (15-29 minutes per day) or no (<15 minutes per day) LTPA, an increase in LTPA by 15 and 30 minutes per day, respectively, was associated with a reduction in mortality to a level similar to that of inactive individuals who mostly do not sit at work. In addition, individuals with a PAI score exceeding 100 experienced a notable reduction in the elevated mortality risk associated with prolonged occupational sitting.

Conclusions and Relevance

As part of modern lifestyles, prolonged occupational sitting is considered normal and has not received due attention, even though its deleterious effect on health outcomes has been demonstrated. In this study, alternating between sitting and nonsitting at work, as well as an extra 15 to 30 minutes per day of LTPA or achieving a PAI score greater than 100, attenuated the harms of prolonged occupational sitting. Emphasizing the associated harms and suggesting workplace system changes may help society to denormalize this common behavior, similar to the process of denormalizing smoking.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Adverse Outcomes: An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis

Importance

Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US.

Objective

To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021.

Exposures

The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses.

Results

Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations.

Association of sleep duration and sleeping pill use with mortality and life expectancy: A cohort study of 484,916 adults

OBJECTIVES

To compare mortality risk and life expectancy among individuals with different sleep durations and sleeping pill use.

METHODS

A cohort of 484,916 community-dwelling adults in Taiwan was recruited into a health screening program from 1994 to 2011. Subjects were categorized by daily sleep duration into 4 groups: extremely short (<4 hours), short (4-6 hours), medium (6-8 hours), and long (>8 hours). Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the associations of mortality risk with sleep duration and sleeping pill use. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle, and comorbidities. Life expectancy tables were calculated among sleeping pill users and nonusers with different sleep durations.

RESULTS

With 6- 8 hours of daily sleep, sleeping pill nonusers had the lowest mortality risk. Sleeping pill users, even with this optimal amount of sleep, had a 55% (p < .001, 95% CI, 1.38-1.73) higher mortality risk than nonusers. The life expectancy of 30-year-old male sleeping pill users with extremely short or long sleep durations was 12-13 years shorter than sleeping pill nonusers who had 6-8 hours of sleep. On average, life expectancy in individuals using sleeping pills (vs. nonusers) was shorter by 5.3 (95% CI, 4.10-6.32) years in men and 5.7 (95% CI, 5.28-7.98) years in women.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that the use of sleeping pills is associated with an increased risk of mortality and shortened life expectancy, especially in extreme sleepers. Regular users should be aware of potential harms from sleeping pills.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities.

BACKGROUND

The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 .

METHODS

Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death.

RESULTS

The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall.

CONCLUSIONS

The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.

Including measures of chronic kidney disease to improve cardiovascular risk prediction by SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP

AIMS

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention categorizes moderate and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) as high and very-high CVD risk status regardless of other factors like age and does not include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria in its algorithms, systemic coronary risk estimation 2 (SCORE2) and systemic coronary risk estimation 2 in older persons (SCORE2-OP), to predict CVD risk. We developed and validated an 'Add-on' to incorporate CKD measures into these algorithms, using a validated approach.

METHODS

In 3,054 840 participants from 34 datasets, we developed three Add-ons [eGFR only, eGFR + urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) (the primary Add-on), and eGFR + dipstick proteinuria] for SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. We validated C-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI), accounting for competing risk of non-CVD death, in 5,997 719 participants from 34 different datasets.

RESULTS

In the target population of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP without diabetes, the CKD Add-on (eGFR only) and CKD Add-on (eGFR + ACR) improved C-statistic by 0.006 (95%CI 0.004-0.008) and 0.016 (0.010-0.023), respectively, for SCORE2 and 0.012 (0.009-0.015) and 0.024 (0.014-0.035), respectively, for SCORE2-OP. Similar results were seen when we included individuals with diabetes and tested the CKD Add-on (eGFR + dipstick). In 57 485 European participants with CKD, SCORE2 or SCORE2-OP with a CKD Add-on showed a significant NRI [e.g. 0.100 (0.062-0.138) for SCORE2] compared to the qualitative approach in the ESC guideline.

CONCLUSION

Our Add-ons with CKD measures improved CVD risk prediction beyond SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. This approach will help clinicians and patients with CKD refine risk prediction and further personalize preventive therapies for CVD.

Associations of Prolonged Occupational Sitting with the Spectrum of Kidney Disease: Results from a Cohort of a Half-Million Asian Adults

BACKGROUND

Kidney diseases are viewed as continuously progressing diseases from microalbuminuria and chronic kidney disease (CKD), to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and its mortality including deaths. The report on the association between prolonged sitting and kidney diseases is limited.

METHODS

We examined a cohort of 455,506 participants in a screening program in Taiwan conducted between 1996 and 2017. Data on occupational sedentary behavior and physical activity were collected with a standardized questionnaire. The outcomes of ESRD and death were identified by linking with the Catastrophic Illness Dataset and Cause of Death Data. The association between prolonged sitting and CKD, the incidence of ESRD, and death were assessed using logistic regression models to compute odds ratios (ORs) and Cox proportional hazards models for hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

More than half of the participants, i.e., 265,948 (58.4%), were categorized as "prolonged sitting" during their work. During a median of 13 years of follow-up, we identified 2227 individuals undergoing dialysis and 25,671 deaths. Prolonged occupational sitting was significantly associated with a higher risk of CKD (OR: 1.26, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 1.31), ESRD (HR: 1.19, 95% CI 1.03, 1.38), and kidney-specific mortality (HR: 1.43, 95% CI 1.07, 1.91) compared to mostly standing participants after controlling for physical activity and other risk factors. Inactive prolonged sitting carries a significantly higher risk of ESRD than physically active mostly standing participants (HR: 1.34, 95% CI 1.04, 1.73). However, active prolonged sitting decreased the risk of ESRD (HR: 1.03, 95% CI 0.79, 1.34) compared to inactive prolonged sitting.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that prolonged occupational sitting is associated with a greater risk of the spectrum of kidney disease, proteinuria, CKD, dialysis (ESRD), and mortality for all causes and kidney diseases. Physical activity, even at a minimal level of 15 min/day (90 min/week) of moderate-intensity exercise, was associated with a reduction in these risks.

Development and Validation of Prediction Models of Adverse Kidney Outcomes in the Population With and Without Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To predict adverse kidney outcomes for use in optimizing medical management and clinical trial design.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this meta-analysis of individual participant data, 43 cohorts (N = 1,621,817) from research studies, electronic medical records, and clinical trials with global representation were separated into development and validation cohorts. Models were developed and validated within strata of diabetes mellitus (presence or absence) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; ≥60 or <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) to predict a composite of ≥40% decline in eGFR or kidney failure (i.e., receipt of kidney replacement therapy) over 2-3 years.

RESULTS

There were 17,399 and 24,591 events in development and validation cohorts, respectively. Models predicting ≥40% eGFR decline or kidney failure incorporated age, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, history of heart failure, coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation, smoking status, and BMI, and, in those with diabetes, hemoglobin A1c, insulin use, and oral diabetes medication use. The median C-statistic was 0.774 (interquartile range [IQR] = 0.753, 0.782) in the diabetes and higher-eGFR validation cohorts; 0.769 (IQR = 0.758, 0.808) in the diabetes and lower-eGFR validation cohorts; 0.740 (IQR = 0.717, 0.763) in the no diabetes and higher-eGFR validation cohorts; and 0.750 (IQR = 0.731, 0.785) in the no diabetes and lower-eGFR validation cohorts. Incorporating the previous 2-year eGFR slope minimally improved model performance, and then only in the higher-eGFR cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel prediction equations for a decline of ≥40% in eGFR can be applied successfully for use in the general population in persons with and without diabetes with higher or lower eGFR.

The effects of modest drinking on life expectancy and mortality risks: a population-based cohort study

Modest drinking has been repeatedly discussed in scientific papers as protective against certain diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, but in most cases, alcohol worsens health conditions, especially when consumed at high risk levels. The complexity of the risk relationship between alcohol and health conditions has confused clinicians as to whether it should be recommended. The study aims to balance the risks and benefits of modest drinking. This retrospective cohort study of 430,016 adults recruited from a standard health-screening program since 1994, with 11,031 deaths identified as of 2008. Drinking distinguished “modest drinker” (no more than one drink a day) from “regular drinker”. Mortality risks including all-cause mortality and diseases-specific mortality with hazard ratio (HR) were calculated by adjusting for 15 confounders. Life table was used for life expectancy. Risk predictors were subjected to Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to identify significant predictors in multivariate models and life expectancy analysis. Nearly one out of 4 males (23%) was a modest drinker, who gained 0.94 year (95% CI 0.65–1.23 year) in life over non-drinker and had 8% reduction in adjusted all-cause mortality (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86–0.97). In contrast, regular drinkers had 43% increase in overall mortality (HR 1.43, CI 1.35–1.52) and shortened life by 6.9 years (95% CI 6.6–7.1 years). As most drinkers also smoked, 59% in modest and 75% in regular, the combined effect shortened life by 2.0 years (95% CI 1.6–2.4 years) in modest drinker and 10.3 years (95% CI 9.8–10.7 years) in regular drinker. Cancer were increased in modest drinkers for oral (HR 2.35, CI 1.38–4.01) and esophageal (HR 3.83, CI 1.90–7.73) cancer. The gain of one year by modest drinkers was erased by a two to fourfold increase in oral and esophageal cancer and that drinking beyond modest amount led to a large loss of life expectancy. Given that drinkers are prone to cross the line of drinking, clinicians should balance the risks and benefits of drinking, as well as the understanding of whether the patient is at risk for addiction.

Role of Physical Activity in Lowering Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between the amount and intensity of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

METHODS

The study examined a cohort of 543,667 participants aged 20 years and older who participated in a health screening program from January 1, 1996, through December 31, 2017. We identified 2520 individuals undergoing dialysis or who had a kidney transplant by linking participants' encrypted personal identification with the registry for ESRD with a median follow-up of 13 years. We classified participants into 5 categories measured by metabolic equivalent of tasks. Within each category, we analyzed the effect of moderate- and vigorous-intensity LTPA in reducing risk of ESRD. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to calculate hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

We observed a dose-response relationship between LTPA and the risk of ESRD. The fully active group had a 12% lower hazard of ESRD compared with the no reported LTPA group (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.98) adjusting for covariates including baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria. Within the same category of LTPA, vigorous-intensity exercise carried a 35% lower HR for ESRD compared with moderate-intensity exercise (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.81). The effect was observed stronger among men, younger participants, and participants with diabetes or hyperlipidemia.

CONCLUSION

Sustained LTPA (≥ 150 minutes per week), particularly with vigorous intensity, significantly lowered the ESRD risk, even among individuals with comorbidities such as diabetes or hyperlipidemia. This finding suggested that patients with no reported LTPA with cardiovascular risks should engage in more LTPA to lower their risk of ESRD.

A prediction model with lifestyle factors improves the predictive ability for renal replacement therapy: a cohort of 442,714 participants Asian adults

Background

There are limited renal replacement therapy (RRT) prediction models with good performance in the general population. We developed a model that includes lifestyle factors to improve predictive ability for RRT in the population at large.

Methods

We used data collected between 1996 and 2017 from a medical screening in a cohort comprising 442 714 participants aged 20 years or over. After a median follow-up of 13 years, we identified 2212 individuals with end-stage renal disease (RRT, n: 2091; kidney transplantation, n: 121). We built three models for comparison: model 1: basic model, Kidney Failure Risk Equation with four variables (age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria); model 2: basic model + medical history + lifestyle risk factors; and model 3: model 2 + all significant clinical variables. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to construct a points-based model and applied the C statistic.

Results

Adding lifestyle factors to the basic model, the C statistic improved in model 2 from 0.91 to 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.94, 0.95). Model 3 showed even better C statistic value i.e., 0.95 (0.95, 0.96). With a cut-off score of 33, model 3 identified 3% of individuals with RRT risk in 10 years. This model detected over half of individuals progressing to RRT, which was higher than the sensitivity of cohort participants with stage 3 or higher chronic kidney disease (0.53 versus 0.48).

Conclusions

Our prediction model including medical history and lifestyle factors improved the predictive ability for end-stage renal disease in the general population in addition to chronic kidney disease population.

Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Mortality in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage in Taiwan

Objective: Lower serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels are associated with increased intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) risk. However, reverse causality and residual confounding has not attracted public attention. Therefore, we assessed whether people with LDL-C have increased risk of mortality adjusting for potential confounders using two large Taiwan cohorts.

Methods: The Mei-Jhao (MJ) cohort has 414,372 adults participating in a medical screening program with 378 ICH deaths within 15 years of follow-up (1994–2008). Cox proportional hazards regressions estimated hazard death ratios according to LDL-C levels. We identified 4,606 ICH patients from the Taiwan Stroke Registry (TSR) and analyzed the impact of LDL-C on 3-month mortality.

Results: Low cholesterol (LDL-C <100 mg/dL), found in 1/4 of the MJ cohort, was highly prevalent (36%) among young adults (age 20–39). There was a graded relationship between cholesterol and mortality for ICH [Hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.13–2.16]. Compared with patients with an LDL-C of 110–129 mg/dL in TSR, the risk for mortality was 1.84 (95% CI, 1.28–2.63) with an LDL-C of <100 mg/dL.

Conclusion: Lower serum LDL-C level independently predicts higher mortality after acute ICH. While its causative role may vary, low cholesterol may pose potential harms in Taiwan.

Incorporating kidney disease measures into cardiovascular risk prediction: Development and validation in 9 million adults from 72 datasets

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) are frequently assessed in clinical practice and improve the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet most major clinical guidelines do not have a standardized approach for incorporating these measures into CVD risk prediction. "CKD Patch" is a validated method to calibrate and improve the predicted risk from established equations according to CKD measures.

METHODS

Utilizing data from 4,143,535 adults from 35 datasets, we developed several "CKD Patches" incorporating eGFR and albuminuria, to enhance prediction of risk of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and CVD mortality by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The risk enhancement by CKD Patch was determined by the deviation between individual CKD measures and the values expected from their traditional CVD risk factors and the hazard ratios for eGFR and albuminuria. We then validated this approach among 4,932,824 adults from 37 independent datasets, comparing the original PCE and SCORE equations (recalibrated in each dataset) to those with addition of CKD Patch.

FINDINGS

We confirmed the prediction improvement with the CKD Patch for CVD mortality beyond SCORE and ASCVD beyond PCE in validation datasets (Δc-statistic 0.027 [95% CI 0.018-0.036] and 0.010 [0.007-0.013] and categorical net reclassification improvement 0.080 [0.032-0.127] and 0.056 [0.044-0.067], respectively). The median (IQI) of the ratio of predicted risk for CVD mortality with CKD Patch vs. the original prediction with SCORE was 2.64 (1.89-3.40) in very high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 30-44 ml/min/1.73m² with albuminuria ≥30 mg/g), 1.86 (1.48-2.44) in high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 45-59 ml/min/1.73m² with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), and 1.37 (1.14-1.69) in moderate risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 60-89 ml/min/1.73m² with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), indicating considerable risk underestimation in CKD with SCORE. The corresponding estimates for ASCVD with PCE were 1.55 (1.37-1.81), 1.24 (1.10-1.54), and 1.21 (0.98-1.46).

INTERPRETATION

The "CKD Patch" can be used to quantitatively enhance ASCVD and CVD mortality risk prediction equations recommended in major US and European guidelines according to CKD measures, when available.

FUNDING

US National Kidney Foundation and the NIDDK.

[Endovascular embolization for pulmonary artery pseudoaneurysms with massive hemoptysis]

Objective: To investigate the efficacy and safety of transcatheter embolization for the treatment of pulmonary artery pseudoaneurysms (PAPs) with massive hemoptysis via both arterial and venous access. Methods: The clinical data of 15 patients of pulmonary tuberculosis presenting with massive hemoptysis, who were confirmed by CTA/DSA with PAPs at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University from January 2016 to February 2018, were retrospectively analyzed. The imaging presentation, technical and clinical success of endovascular treatment, and recurrence of hemoptysis within 1 year was recorded. Results: A total of 15 PAPs were involved. Fourteen PAPs were confirmed by pulmonary CTA and one by angiography. Six PAPs were visualized during bronchial artery angiography, 4 PAPs during pulmonary artery angiography, and 4 PAPs both. One PAP was not shown during catheter-directed angiography. Except for one patient who died of asphyxia due to severe hemoptysis undergoing embolization, hemoptysis relapse was achieved in 14 patients after endovascular treatment. During 12 months follow-up, one patient underwent surgical resection because of recurrent hemoptysis 2 weeks after embolization, and another patient with recurrence hemoptysis 3 months after embolization received repeated intervention and hemoptysis relapsed. Conclusion: Transcatheter embolization via dual access is effective and feasible for the treatment of PAPs with massive hemoptysis in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, but still some risks.

Smoking Paradox in Stroke Survivors?: Uncovering the Truth by Interpreting 2 Sets of Data

Background and Purpose- The observation that smokers with stroke could have better outcome than nonsmokers led to the term "smoking paradox." The controversy of such a complex claim has not been fully settled, even though different case mix was noted. Analyses were conducted on 2 independent data sets to evaluate and determine whether such a paradox truly exists. Methods- Taiwan Stroke Registry with 88 925 stroke cases, and MJ cohort with 541 047 adults participating in a medical screening program with 1630 stroke deaths developed during 15 years of follow-up (1994-2008). Primary outcome for stroke registry was functional independence at 3 months by modified Rankin Scale score ≤2, for individuals classified by National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission. For MJ cohort, mortality risk by smoking status or by stroke history was assessed by hazard ratio. Results- A >11-year age difference in stroke incidence was found between smokers and nonsmokers, with a median age of 60.2 years for current smokers and 71.6 years for nonsmokers. For smokers, favorable outcome in mortality and in functional assessment in 3 months with modified Rankin Scale score ≤2 stratified by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was present but disappeared when age and sex were matched. Smokers without stroke history had a ≈2-fold increase in stroke deaths (2.05 for ischemic stroke and 1.53 for hemorrhagic stroke) but smokers with stroke history, 7.83-fold increase, overshadowing smoking risk. Quitting smoking at earlier age reversed or improved outcome. Conclusions- "The more you smoke, the earlier you stroke, and the longer sufferings you have to cope." Smokers had 2-fold mortality from stroke but endured stroke disability 11 years longer. Quitting early reduced or reversed the harms.

Comparison Between Aspirin and Clopidogrel in Secondary Stroke Prevention Based on Real-World Data

Background

Clopidogrel was thought to be superior to aspirin for secondary prevention of vascular diseases in clinical trials. In this study we assessed the safety and efficacy of clopidogrel versus aspirin in real‐world practice by using the Taiwan Stroke Registry.

Methods and Results

Patients with ischemic stroke (2006–2016) on aspirin or clopidogrel for secondary stroke prevention were identified in the Taiwan Stroke Registry. Stroke recurrence and mortality rates in patients receiving aspirin (N=34 679) were compared with those receiving clopidogrel (N=7611) during a 12‐month follow‐up period. Propensity score matching and conditional Cox proportional hazards regression model were applied to control confounding factors with 6443 patients in each group. After propensity score matching, stroke recurrence rates were comparable between groups, with 223 patients in the aspirin (3.46%) and 244 in the clopidogrel group (3.79%) (hazard ratio=1.13, 95% confidence interval=0.89–1.43, P=0.311). However, the mortality rate was significantly higher in the clopidogrel group (362 patients, 5.62%) than in the aspirin group (302 patients, 4.69%) (hazard ratio=1.30, 95% confidence interval=1.07–1.58, P=0.008). Results were consistent before and after propensity score matching.

Conclusions

Clopidogrel was as effective as aspirin for prevention of recurrent stroke in real‐world practice. However, the mortality rate was significantly higher in the clopidogrel than in the aspirin group.

Change in albuminuria and subsequent risk of end-stage kidney disease: an individual participant-level consortium meta-analysis of observational studies

BACKGROUND

Change in albuminuria as a surrogate endpoint for progression of chronic kidney disease is strongly supported by biological plausibility, but empirical evidence to support its validity in epidemiological studies is lacking. We aimed to assess the consistency of the association between change in albuminuria and risk of end-stage kidney disease in a large individual participant-level meta-analysis of observational studies.

METHODS

In this meta-analysis, we collected individual-level data from eligible cohorts in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (CKD-PC) with data on serum creatinine and change in albuminuria and more than 50 events on outcomes of interest. Cohort data were eligible if participants were aged 18 years or older, they had a repeated measure of albuminuria during an elapsed period of 8 months to 4 years, subsequent end-stage kidney disease or mortality follow-up data, and the cohort was active during this consortium phase. We extracted participant-level data and quantified percentage change in albuminuria, measured as change in urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) or urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (PCR), during baseline periods of 1, 2, and 3 years. Our primary outcome of interest was development of end-stage kidney disease after a baseline period of 2 years. We defined an end-stage kidney disease event as initiation of kidney replacement therapy. We quantified associations of percentage change in albuminuria with subsequent end-stage kidney disease using Cox regression in each cohort, followed by random-effects meta-analysis. We further adjusted for regression dilution to account for imprecision in the estimation of albuminuria at the participant level. We did multiple subgroup analyses, and also repeated our analyses using participant-level data from 14 clinical trials, including nine clinical trials not in CKD-PC.

FINDINGS

Between July, 2015, and June, 2018, we transferred and analysed data from 28 cohorts in the CKD-PC, which included 693 816 individuals (557 583 [80%] with diabetes). Data for 675 904 individuals and 7461 end-stage kidney disease events were available for our primary outcome analysis. Change in ACR was consistently associated with subsequent risk of end-stage kidney disease. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for end-stage kidney disease after a 30% decrease in ACR during a baseline period of 2 years was 0·83 (95% CI 0·74-0·94), decreasing to 0·78 (0·66-0·92) after further adjustment for regression dilution. Adjusted HRs were fairly consistent across cohorts and subgroups (ie, estimated glomerular filtration rate, diabetes, and sex), but the association was somewhat stronger among participants with higher baseline ACR than among those with lower baseline ACR (p_interaction<0·0001). In individuals with baseline ACR of 300 mg/g or higher, a 30% decrease in ACR over 2 years was estimated to confer a more than 1% absolute reduction in 10-year risk of end-stage kidney disease, even at early stages of chronic kidney disease. Results were generally similar when we used change in PCR and when study populations from clinical trials were assessed.

INTERPRETATION

Change in albuminuria was consistently associated with subsequent risk of end-stage kidney disease across a range of cohorts, lending support to the use of change in albuminuria as a surrogate endpoint for end-stage kidney disease in clinical trials of progression of chronic kidney disease in the setting of increased albuminuria.

FUNDING

US National Kidney Foundation and US National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Tobacco control within and beyond WHO MPOWER: outcomes from Taiwan SimSmoke

Introduction

Adult smoking prevalence in Taiwan rapidly declined from 26.5% in 2005 to 20.0% in 2015. Nevertheless, future projections on smoking-attributable deaths and current per capita consumption do not paint an equally bright picture.

Methods

We used SimSmoke, a tobacco control simulation model to assess the impact of tax increases and other policies by predicting past and projecting over future decades smoking rates and smoking-attributable mortality.

Results

The model accurately depicts the decline in smoking prevalence observed in Taiwan from 2000 to 2015. Nonetheless, under the ‘status quo’ scenario, smoking-attributable mortality is projected to continue growing, peaking at 26 602 annual deaths in 2039 and cumulative deaths >1 million by 2044. By comparing projections with current policies with a counterfactual scenario based on the 2000 policy levels, SimSmoke estimates that tobacco control in Taiwan has been able to reduce smoking prevalence by 30% in 2015 with 450 000 fewer smoking-attributable deaths by 2060. Modified scenarios show that doubling the retail price of cigarettes and fully implementing the remaining MPOWER measures would avert approximately 45 000 lives by 2040 and 130 000 by 2060.

Conclusions

Tobacco will be a leading cause of death in Taiwan for the coming decades, showing yet again the long-term consequences of smoking on public health. The MPOWER package, even if adopted at the highest level with a large tax increase, is unlikely to reduce smoking prevalence to the endgame goal of 5% in the next five decades.

Defining a global research and policy agenda for betel quid and areca nut

Betel quid and areca nut are known risk factors for many oral and oesophageal cancers, and their use is highly prevalent in the Asia-Pacific region. Additionally, betel quid and areca nut are associated with health effects on the cardiovascular, nervous, gastrointestinal, metabolic, respiratory, and reproductive systems. Unlike tobacco, for which the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provides evidence-based policies for reducing tobacco use, no global policy exists for the control of betel quid and areca nut use. Multidisciplinary research is needed to address this neglected global public health emergency and to mobilise efforts to control betel quid and areca nut use. In addition, future research is needed to advance our understanding of the basic biology, mechanisms, and epidemiology of betel quid and areca nut use, to advance possible prevention and cessation programmes for betel quid and areca nut users, and to design evidence-based screening and early diagnosis programmes to address the growing burden of cancers that are associated with use.

Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION

This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cholesterol Levels Are Associated with 30-day Mortality from Ischemic Stroke in Dialysis Patients

BACKGROUND

We investigated the impact of serum cholesterol levels on 30-day mortality after ischemic stroke in dialysis patients.

METHODS

From the Taiwan Stroke Registry data, we identified 46,770 ischemic stroke cases, including 1101 dialysis patients and 45,669 nondialysis patients from 2006 to 2013.

RESULTS

Overall, the 30-day mortality was 1.46-fold greater in the dialysis group than in the nondialysis group (1.75 versus 1.20 per 1000 person-days). The mortality rates were 1.64, .62, 2.82, and 2.23 per 1000 person-days in dialysis patients with serum total cholesterol levels of <120 mg/dL, 120-159 mg/dL, 160-199 mg/dL, and ≥200 mg/dL, respectively. Compared to dialysis patients with serum total cholesterol levels of 120-159 mg/dL, the corresponding adjusted hazard ratios of mortality were 4.20 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-17.4), 8.06 (95% CI = 2.02-32.2), and 6.89 (95% CI = 1.59-29.8) for those with cholesterol levels of <120 mg/dL, 160-199 mg/dL, and ≥200 mg/dL, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Dialysis patients with serum total cholesterol levels of ≥160 mg/dL or <120 mg/dL on admission are at an elevated hazard of 30-day mortality after ischemic stroke.

Mortality Experience in a Rapidly Developing Economy in Taiwan: Infant Mortality, Gender Gap, and Occupational Risks

Mortality data of Taiwan for 1981 through 1986 were analyzed using three different statistics in order to assess the role of environmental and lifestyle factors in causing mortality variations. Infant mortality rates from different geographic regions generally correlated well with overall mortality from all ages, suggesting that there are many common risk factors affecting the entire age range of the population. The mortality rates of tobacco-and alcohol-related causes of death and cancers were much higher in males than females. A number of cancer sites, including the lung, the liver, the stomach, and the nasopharynx, showed more than twofold excesses in males. In contrast, females had a tenfold excess of genital cancer and a 33% higher rate of diabetes. With rapid industrialization, occupational hazards played an increasing role in the development of cancer and other causes of death. During the study period, fishermen showed increased risk for cancers of the stomach, the esophagus, and the liver, while construction workers had an increased risk for cancer of the esophagus. Peasants and soldiers had an elevated suicide mortality. Among apprentices, fatal injuries were high. Findings from this study are useful in setting priorities for health and safety programs and directing efforts such as health education programs and other preventive strategies against disease.

Heart rate and suicide: findings from two cohorts of 533 000 Taiwanese and 75 000 Norwegian adults

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of resting heart rate with suicide in two large cohorts.

METHOD

The MJ cohort (Taiwan) included 532 932 adults from a health check-up programme (1994-2008). The HUNT cohort (Norway) included 74 977 adults in the Nord-Trøndelag County study (1984-1986), followed up to 2004. In both cohorts heart rate was measured at baseline, and suicide was ascertained through linkage to cause-of-death registers. Risk of suicide was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

There were 569 and 188 suicides (average follow-up period of 8.1 and 16.9 years) in the MJ and HUNT cohorts respectively. Sex- and age-adjusted hazard ratio for every 10 beat increase in heart rate per minute was 1.08 (95% Confidence Interval 1.00-1.16) and 1.24 (1.12-1.38) in the MJ and HUNT cohorts, respectively. In the MJ cohort this association was confined to individuals with a history of heart diseases vs. those without such a history (P for interaction = 0.008). In the HUNT cohort the association did not differ by history of heart diseases and was robust to adjustment for health-related life style, medication use, and symptoms of anxiety and depression.

CONCLUSION

Elevated resting heart rate may be a marker of increased suicide risk.

High-peak-power optically-pumped AlGaInAs eye-safe laser with a silicon wafer as an output coupler: comparison between the stack cavity and the separate cavity

An intrinsic silicon wafer is exploited as an output coupler to develop a high-peak-power optically-pumped AlGaInAs laser at 1.52 μm. The gain chip is sandwiched with the diamond heat spreader and the silicon wafer to a stack cavity. It is experimentally confirmed that not only the output stability but also the conversion efficiency are considerably enhanced in comparison with the separate cavity in which the silicon wafer is separated from other components. The average output power obtained with the stack cavity was 2.02 W under 11.5 W average pump power, corresponding to an overall optical-to-optical efficiency of 17.5%; the slope efficiency was 18.6%. The laser operated at 100 kHz repetition rate and the pulse peak power was 0.4 kW.

A Retrospective Cohort Study Comparing Stroke Recurrence Rate in Ischemic Stroke Patients With and Without Acupuncture Treatment

Little was known about the effects of acupuncture on stroke recurrence. The aim of this study is to investigate whether ischemic stroke patients receiving acupuncture treatment have a decreased risk of stroke recurrence. A retrospective cohort study of 30,058 newly diagnosed cases of ischemic stroke in 2000 to 2004 was conducted based on the claims of Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The use of acupuncture treatment and stroke recurrence were identified during the follow-up period from 2000 to 2009. This study compared the risk of stroke recurrence between ischemic stroke cohorts with and without acupuncture treatment by calculating adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of acupuncture associated with stroke recurrence in the Cox proportional hazard model. The stroke recurrence rate per 1000 person-years decreased from 71.4 without to 69.9 with acupuncture treatment (P < 0.001). Acupuncture treatment was associated with reduced risk of stroke recurrence (HR 0.88; 95% CI 0.84-0.91). The acupuncture effect was noted in patients with or without medical treatment for stroke prevention but its impact decreased with aging of stroke patients. Compared with stroke patients without acupuncture treatment and medication therapy, the hazard ratios of stroke recurrence for those had medication therapy only, acupuncture only, and both were 0.42 (95% CI 0.38-0.46), 0.50 (95% CI 0.43-0.57), and 0.39 (95% CI 0.35-0.43), respectively. This study raises the possibility that acupuncture might be effective in lowering stroke recurrence rate even in those on medications for stroke prevention. Results suggest the need of prospective sham-controlled and randomized trials to establish the efficacy of acupuncture in preventing stroke.

Exploring the influence of high order transverse modes on the temporal dynamics in an optically pumped mode-locked semiconductor disk laser

We quantitatively investigate the influence of high-order transverse modes on the self-mode locking (SML) in an optically pumped semiconductor laser (OPSL) with a nearly hemispherical cavity. A physical aperture is inserted into the cavity to manipulate the excitation of high-order transverse modes. Experimental measurements reveal that the laser is operated in a well-behaved SML state with the existence of the TEM(0,0) mode and the first high-order transverse mode. While more high-order transverse modes are excited, it is found that the pulse train is modulated by more beating frequencies of transverse modes. The temporal behavior becomes the random dynamics when too many high-order transverse modes are excited. We observe that the temporal trace exhibits an intermittent mode-locked state in the absence of high-order transverse modes.

Exploring the resonant vibration of thin plates: Reconstruction of Chladni patterns and determination of resonant wave numbers

The Chladni nodal line patterns and resonant frequencies for a thin plate excited by an electronically controlled mechanical oscillator are experimentally measured. Experimental results reveal that the resonant frequencies can be fairly obtained by means of probing the variation of the effective impedance of the exciter with and without the thin plate. The influence of the extra mass from the central exciter is confirmed to be insignificant in measuring the resonant frequencies of the present system. In the theoretical aspect, the inhomogeneous Helmholtz equation is exploited to derive the response function as a function of the driving wave number for reconstructing experimental Chladni patterns. The resonant wave numbers are theoretically identified with the maximum coupling efficiency as well as the maximum entropy principle. Substituting the theoretical resonant wave numbers into the derived response function, all experimental Chladni patterns can be excellently reconstructed. More importantly, the dispersion relationship for the flexural wave of the vibrating plate can be determined with the experimental resonant frequencies and the theoretical resonant wave numbers. The determined dispersion relationship is confirmed to agree very well with the formula of the Kirchhoff-Love plate theory.

ABO blood types and cancer risk--a cohort study of 339,432 subjects in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

The associations of laboratory-based ABO phenotypes with cancer risks and mortality have not been systematically determined.

METHODS

The study subjects were 339,432 healthy individuals with laboratory-based blood types from a Taiwan cohort.

RESULTS

Compared to blood type O, blood type A was significantly associated with an elevated risk of stomach cancer incidence (Hazard Ratio [HR], 1.38 [95% CI, 1.11-1.72]) and mortality (HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.02-1.86]) compared with blood type O, after adjusting for age, sex, education, smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity, and body mass index. Non-O blood types were associated with an elevated risk of pancreatic cancer, with blood type B reaching statistical significance for incidence (HR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.02-2.48]) and mortality (HR, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.02-2.60]). In contrast, kidney cancer risk was inversely associated with blood type AB (HR, 0.41 [95% CI, 0.18-0.93]) compared to type O.

CONCLUSION

Cancer risks vary in people with different ABO blood types, with elevated risks of stomach cancer associated with blood type A and pancreatic cancer associated with non-O blood types (A, B, and AB).

The ability of bilirubin in identifying smokers with higher risk of lung cancer: a large cohort study in conjunction with global metabolomic profiling

PURPOSE

We aimed to identify serum metabolites as potential valuable biomarkers for lung cancer and to improve risk stratification in smokers.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

We performed global metabolomic profiling followed by targeted validation of individual metabolites in a case-control design of 386 lung cancer cases and 193 matched controls. We then validated bilirubin, which consistently showed significant differential levels in cases and controls, as a risk marker for lung cancer incidence and mortality in a large prospective cohort composed of 425,660 participants.

RESULTS

Through global metabolomic profiling and following targeted validation, bilirubin levels consistently showed a statistically significant difference among healthy controls and lung cancer cases. In the prospective cohort, the inverse association was only seen in male smokers, regardless of smoking pack-years and intensity. Compared with male smokers in the highest bilirubin group (>1 mg/dL), those in the lowest bilirubin group (<0.75 mg/dL) had 55% and 66% increase in risks of lung cancer incidence and mortality, respectively. For every 0.1 mg/dL decrease of bilirubin, the risks for lung cancer incidence and mortality increased by 5% and 6% in male smokers, respectively (both P < 0.001). There was a significant interaction between low serum bilirubin level and smoking on lung cancer risk (Pinteraction = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Low levels of serum bilirubin are associated with higher risks of lung cancer incidence and mortality in male smokers and can be used to identify higher risk smokers for lung cancer.

Increased risk of stroke after septicaemia: a population-based longitudinal study in Taiwan

Inflammation and infection have been noted to increase stroke risk. However, the association between septicaemia and increased risk of stroke remains unclear. This population-based cohort study, using a National Health Insurance database, aimed to investigate whether patients with septicaemia are predisposed to increased stroke risk. The study included all patients hospitalised for septicaemia for the first time between 2000 and 2003 without prior stroke. Patients were followed until the end of 2010 to evaluate incidence of stroke. An age-, gender- and co-morbidities-matched cohort without prior stroke served as the control. Cox's proportional hazards regressions were used to assess differences in stroke risk between groups. Based on hazard ratios (HRs), patients with septicaemia had greater stroke risk, especially in the younger age groups (age <45: HR = 4.16, 95% CI: 2.39-7.24, p<0.001; age 45-64: HR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.41-2.19, p<0.001; age ≥ 65: HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.91-1.22, p>0.05). Haemorrhagic stroke was the dominant type (ischaemic stroke: HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.06-1.37, p<0.01; haemorrhagic stroke: HR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.35-2.46, p<0.001) and patients without co-morbidities were at slightly higher risk (without co-morbidities: HR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.02-2.17, p<0.05; with co-morbidities: HR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.10-1.41, p<0.001). The impact of septicaemia on stroke risk was highest within 6 months of the event and gradually declined over time. Our results suggest that septicaemia is associated with an increase in stroke risk, which is greatest in haemorrhagic stroke. Closer attention to patients with history of septicaemia may be warranted for stroke preventive measures, especially for younger patients without co-morbidities.

Exploring the distinction between experimental resonant modes and theoretical eigenmodes: from vibrating plates to laser cavities

Experimentally resonant modes are commonly presumed to correspond to eigenmodes in the same bounded domain. However, the one-to-one correspondence between theoretical eigenmodes and experimental observations is never reached. Theoretically, eigenmodes in numerous classical and quantum systems are the solutions of the homogeneous Helmholtz equation, whereas resonant modes should be solved from the inhomogeneous Helmholtz equation. In the present paper we employ the eigenmode expansion method to derive the wave functions for manifesting the distinction between eigenmodes and resonant modes. The derived wave functions are successfully used to reconstruct a variety of experimental results including Chladni figures generated from the vibrating plate, resonant patterns excited from microwave cavities, and lasing modes emitted from the vertical cavity.

The role of physical activity in chronic kidney disease in the presence of diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Although the effect of exercise on health is well established, nephrologists seldom consider physical activity in the treatment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) or CKD in the presence of diabetes mellitus (DM/CKD). The aim of the present study was to analyze the benefits of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) in DM/CKD.

METHODS

A total of 445,075 adult participants who underwent a medical screening program between 1996 and 2008 were prospectively recruited. Of these, 7,863 DM/CKD subjects were identified. Each participant was categorized according to LTPA level (a product of duration and intensity) as inactive, low-active or fully active. Hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality risk were calculated.

RESULTS

Fully active LTPA was associated with lower odds of DM/CKD development and lower risk of mortality among patients with DM/CKD in a dose-response relationship. The fully active and low-active DM/CKD groups had a 26% (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.66-0.85) and 13% (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.75-1.01) lower risk of all-cause mortality, respectively, in comparison to the inactive group. The association of exercise with mortality rate reduction was more pronounced among DM/CKD subjects (mortality rate reduction of 446.5 per 100,000 person-years) than among subjects with diabetes alone or CKD alone.

CONCLUSION

Exercise, at the recommended level or more, is associated not only with lower odds of DM/CKD but also with a 26% lower mortality risk among DM/CKD patients. Nephrologists should encourage all DM/CKD subjects to be physically active

Association between hypertensive disorders during pregnancy and end-stage renal disease: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Studies into the association between hypertensive disorders during pregnancy and end-stage renal disease are limited. We investigated the risk of end-stage renal disease after delivery among women with hypertensive disorders during pregnancy.

METHODS

We used insurance claims data from 1998 to 2009 to identify 26,651 women aged 19-40 years old who experienced hypertensive disorders during pregnancy; these women had no history of hypertension, diabetes, kidney disease or lupus. We also randomly selected 213,397 women without hypertensive disorders during pregnancy as a comparison cohort; the frequency was matched by age and index year of pregnancy. We compared the incidence of end-stage renal disease in the 2 cohorts. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) after controlling for demographic and clinical factors.

RESULTS

Women with hypertensive disorders during pregnancy had a greater risk of chronic kidney disease and end-stage renal disease, with adjusted HRs of 9.38 (95% CI 7.09-12.4) and 12.4 (95% CI 8.54-18.0), respectively, after controlling for urban status, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, hyperlipidemia and abruption. The HR for end-stage renal disease was 2.72 (95% CI 1.76-4.22) after we also controlled for hypertension and diabetes. Women with preeclampsia or eclampsia had a higher risk of end-stage renal disease (adjusted HR 14.0, 95% CI 9.43-20.7) than women who had gestational hypertension only (adjusted HR 9.03, 95% CI 5.20-15.7).

INTERPRETATION

Women with hypertensive disorders during pregnancy were at a high risk of end-stage renal disease. The risk was much greater for women who had preeclampsia or eclampsia than those who had gestational hypertension only.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction model for the general population: the predictive power of transaminases

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma are available for individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections who are at high risk but not for the general population with average or unknown risk. We developed five simple risk prediction models based on clinically available data from the general population.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of 428 584 subjects from a private health screening firm in Taiwan was divided into two subgroups-one with known HCV test results (n = 130 533 subjects) and the other without (n = 298 051 subjects). A total of 1668 incident hepatocellular carcinomas occurred during an average follow-up of 8.5 years. Model inputs included age, sex, health history-related variables; HBV or HCV infection-related variables; serum levels of alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), and alfa-fetoprotein (AFP), as well as other variables of routine blood panels for liver function. Cox proportional hazards regression method was used to identify risk predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess discriminatory accuracy of the models. Models were internally validated. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

Age, sex, health history, HBV and HCV status, and serum ALT, AST, AFP levels were statistically significant independent predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma risk (all P < .05). Use of serum transaminases only in a model showed a higher discrimination compared with HBV or HCV only (for transaminases, area under the curve [AUC] = 0.912, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.909 to 0.915; for HBV, AUC = 0.840, 95% CI = 0.833 to 0.848; and for HCV, AUC = 0.841, 95% CI = 0.834 to 0.847). Adding HBV and HCV data to the transaminase-only model improved the discrimination (AUC = 0.933, 95% CI = 0.929 to 0.949). Internal validation showed high discriminatory accuracy and calibration of these models.

CONCLUSION

Models with transaminase data were best able to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk even among subjects with unknown or HBV- or HCV-negative infection status.

Cohort profile: the chronic kidney disease prognosis consortium

The Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (CKD-PC) was established in 2009 to provide comprehensive evidence about the prognostic impact of two key kidney measures that are used to define and stage CKD, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria, on mortality and kidney outcomes. CKD-PC currently consists of 46 cohorts with data on these kidney measures and outcomes from >2 million participants spanning across 40 countries/regions all over the world. CKD-PC published four meta-analysis articles in 2010-11, providing key evidence for an international consensus on the definition and staging of CKD and an update for CKD clinical practice guidelines. The consortium continues to work on more detailed analysis (subgroups, different eGFR equations, other exposures and outcomes, and risk prediction). CKD-PC preferably collects individual participant data but also applies a novel distributed analysis model, in which each cohort runs statistical analysis locally and shares only analysed outputs for meta-analyses. This distributed model allows inclusion of cohorts which cannot share individual participant level data. According to agreement with cohorts, CKD-PC will not share data with third parties, but is open to including further eligible cohorts. Each cohort can opt in/out for each topic. CKD-PC has established a productive and effective collaboration, allowing flexible participation and complex meta-analyses for studying CKD.

Age and association of kidney measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease

CONTEXT

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent in older individuals, but the risk implications of low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high albuminuria across the full age range are controversial.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate possible effect modification (interaction) by age of the association of eGFR and albuminuria with clinical risk, examining both relative and absolute risks.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Individual-level meta-analysis including 2,051,244 participants from 33 general population or high-risk (of vascular disease) cohorts and 13 CKD cohorts from Asia, Australasia, Europe, and North/South America, conducted in 1972-2011 with a mean follow-up time of 5.8 years (range, 0-31 years).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) according to eGFR and albuminuria were meta-analyzed across age categories after adjusting for sex, race, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, body mass index, and smoking. Absolute risks were estimated using HRs and average incidence rates.

RESULTS

Mortality (112,325 deaths) and ESRD (8411 events) risks were higher at lower eGFR and higher albuminuria in every age category. In general and high-risk cohorts, relative mortality risk for reduced eGFR decreased with increasing age; eg, adjusted HRs at an eGFR of 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 vs 80 mL/min/1.73 m2 were 3.50 (95% CI, 2.55-4.81), 2.21 (95% CI, 2.02-2.41), 1.59 (95% CI, 1.42-1.77), and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.23-1.48) in age categories 18-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years, respectively (P <.05 for age interaction). Absolute risk differences for the same comparisons were higher at older age (9.0 [95% CI, 6.0-12.8], 12.2 [95% CI, 10.3-14.3], 13.3 [95% CI, 9.0-18.6], and 27.2 [95% CI, 13.5-45.5] excess deaths per 1000 person-years, respectively). For increased albuminuria, reduction of relative risk with increasing age was less evident, while differences in absolute risk were higher in older age categories (7.5 [95% CI, 4.3-11.9], 12.2 [95% CI, 7.9-17.6], 22.7 [95% CI, 15.3-31.6], and 34.3 [95% CI, 19.5-52.4] excess deaths per 1000 person-years, respectively by age category, at an albumin-creatinine ratio of 300 mg/g vs 10 mg/g). In CKD cohorts, adjusted relative hazards of mortality did not decrease with age. In all cohorts, ESRD relative risks and absolute risk differences at lower eGFR or higher albuminuria were comparable across age categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Both low eGFR and high albuminuria were independently associated with mortality and ESRD regardless of age across a wide range of populations. Mortality showed lower relative risk but higher absolute risk differences at older age.

Associations of kidney disease measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease in individuals with and without diabetes: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease is characterised by low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high albuminuria, and is associated with adverse outcomes. Whether these risks are modified by diabetes is unknown.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis of studies selected according to Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium criteria. Data transfer and analyses were done between March, 2011, and June, 2012. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) associated with eGFR and albuminuria in individuals with and without diabetes.

FINDINGS

We analysed data for 1,024,977 participants (128,505 with diabetes) from 30 general population and high-risk cardiovascular cohorts and 13 chronic kidney disease cohorts. In the combined general population and high-risk cohorts with data for all-cause mortality, 75,306 deaths occurred during a mean follow-up of 8·5 years (SD 5·0). In the 23 studies with data for cardiovascular mortality, 21,237 deaths occurred from cardiovascular disease during a mean follow-up of 9·2 years (SD 4·9). In the general and high-risk cohorts, mortality risks were 1·2-1·9 times higher for participants with diabetes than for those without diabetes across the ranges of eGFR and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). With fixed eGFR and ACR reference points in the diabetes and no diabetes groups, HR of mortality outcomes according to lower eGFR and higher ACR were much the same in participants with and without diabetes (eg, for all-cause mortality at eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) [vs 95 mL/min per 1·73 m(2)], HR 1·35; 95% CI 1·18-1·55; vs 1·33; 1·19-1·48 and at ACR 30 mg/g [vs 5 mg/g], 1·50; 1·35-1·65 vs 1·52; 1·38-1·67). The overall interactions were not significant. We identified much the same findings for ESRD in the chronic kidney disease cohorts.

INTERPRETATION

Despite higher risks for mortality and ESRD in diabetes, the relative risks of these outcomes by eGFR and ACR are much the same irrespective of the presence or absence of diabetes, emphasising the importance of kidney disease as a predictor of clinical outcomes.

FUNDING

US National Kidney Foundation.

Comparison of risk prediction using the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD study equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate

CONTEXT

The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation more accurately estimates glomerular filtration rate (GFR) than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation using the same variables, especially at higher GFR, but definitive evidence of its risk implications in diverse settings is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate risk implications of estimated GFR using the CKD-EPI equation compared with the MDRD Study equation in populations with a broad range of demographic and clinical characteristics.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A meta-analysis of data from 1.1 million adults (aged ≥ 18 years) from 25 general population cohorts, 7 high-risk cohorts (of vascular disease), and 13 CKD cohorts. Data transfer and analyses were conducted between March 2011 and March 2012.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause mortality (84,482 deaths from 40 cohorts), cardiovascular mortality (22,176 events from 28 cohorts), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (7644 events from 21 cohorts) during 9.4 million person-years of follow-up; the median of mean follow-up time across cohorts was 7.4 years (interquartile range, 4.2-10.5 years).

RESULTS

Estimated GFR was classified into 6 categories (≥90, 60-89, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, and <15 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) by both equations. Compared with the MDRD Study equation, 24.4% and 0.6% of participants from general population cohorts were reclassified to a higher and lower estimated GFR category, respectively, by the CKD-EPI equation, and the prevalence of CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) was reduced from 8.7% to 6.3%. In estimated GFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the MDRD Study equation, 34.7% of participants were reclassified to estimated GFR of 60 to 89 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the CKD-EPI equation and had lower incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) for the outcomes of interest (9.9 vs 34.5 for all-cause mortality, 2.7 vs 13.0 for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.5 vs 0.8 for ESRD) compared with those not reclassified. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86) for all-cause mortality, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.82) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.27-0.88) for ESRD. Similar findings were observed in other estimated GFR categories by the MDRD Study equation. Net reclassification improvement based on estimated GFR categories was significantly positive for all outcomes (range, 0.06-0.13; all P < .001). Net reclassification improvement was similarly positive in most subgroups defined by age (<65 years and ≥65 years), sex, race/ethnicity (white, Asian, and black), and presence or absence of diabetes and hypertension. The results in the high-risk and CKD cohorts were largely consistent with the general population cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The CKD-EPI equation classified fewer individuals as having CKD and more accurately categorized the risk for mortality and ESRD than did the MDRD Study equation across a broad range of populations.

Abstract LB-324: The cancer risks and life shortening effect of low and very low cholesterol among Asians

Background: Attention has been focused on the increased risk of high cholesterol, but the effect of low cholesterol remains unclear and receives little attention. Method: The study cohort, 537,430 adults in Taiwan who went through a medical screening program between 1996 and 2008, was followed up for an average of 8.5 years for mortality and cancer incidence, with 18,745 deaths and 17,714 cancer cases identified. Low and very low cholesterol or LDL were defined as &lt; 180 and &lt;160, or &lt;110 and &lt;90 mg/dL, respectively. Cox proportionate model was used for hazard ratio (HR) calculation, by controlling for all relevant risk factors (Age, gender, BMI, smoking, drinking, blood pressure, blood sugar, physical activity and anemia) Results: One out of four (24.6%) had low cholesterol and 7.5% had very low cholesterol, in contrast to 10.4% with high cholesterol. Increases in all cancer mortality were found for those with low cholesterol (HR:1.41, with 95% 1.3-1.5) and very low cholesterol (HR: 1.58 with 95% 1.4-1.7), with 180-239 mg/dL as reference. Similar results were seen for cancer incidence. The increase came prominently from liver cancer (HR:2.86), and the increases remained after all deaths or all cancer incidences within the first 3 years were excluded (HR: 1.31), or after HBV carriers were excluded (HR: 1.33). All cancer mortality increased by 1% for every unit decrease of cholesterol across all levels. With 60% increase in all-cause mortality, the life span of very low cholesterol was shortened by 5-6 years. Conclusion: Found in 1/4 of adult Asians, subjects with low cholesterol (&lt;180 mg/dL), a level commonly reached by those taking statins or on vegetarian diet, had approximately 50% increase in cancer risks. The inverse relationship existed across all levels of cholesterol, with 10% increase for every 10-unit decrease. Those with very low cholesterol had their life span shortened by 5-6 years. While reverse causation with pre-clinical cancer cases could be responsible, the fact that the cancer risks remained after excluding first three years of cancer implied low cholesterol is an independent risk factor or risk marker for all cancer. In this Asian community, low cholesterol should receive as much attention as high cholesterol.

Citation Format: {Authors}. {Abstract title} [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 103rd Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2012 Mar 31-Apr 4; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2012;72(8 Suppl):Abstract nr LB-324. doi:1538-7445.AM2012-LB-324

Abstract 5509: Liver cancer risk prediction model from a large prospective cohort in Taiwan

Models predicting liver cancer are only available for the high risk population with hepatitis carriers but not for the general population. we developed risk prediction models for liver cancer using data collected from a large health screening program in Taiwan with long term follow up. The cohort included 444,023 subjects at baseline. During a median follow up time of 7.4 years, 1,668 subjects developed liver cancer. Epidemiologic data, medical history and routine blood panel including serum transaminases data were collected with optional additional testing for HBV or HCV status. Liver cancer cases were ascertained by computerized record linkage with both the National Cancer Registry and the National Death Certification profiles in Taiwan. Stepwise Cox regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors in the multivariate models. Individualized risk of developing liver cancer in 10 years was calculated from baseline probability and relative risk profile estimated from the Cox regression model. Models were developed separately to provide risk prediction for subjects who chose to have HCV tested (130,533 subjects at baseline and 416 liver cancer cases) and who chose otherwise (313,490 subjects and 1,252 liver cancer cases). Since the results for both sub-cohorts are comparable and we only reported results for the sub-cohort with HCV tested. In the sub-cohort with HCV tested, the model with only questionnaire data identified significant main effects for male gender, older age, prior history of diabetes, pack year of smoking, alcohol use, and physical inactivity. This epidemiologic model had an AUC of 0.798 (95% CI=0.772-0.815) for 10-year risk prediction. With only data from measures of Transaminases, the model achieved an AUC of 0.927 (95% CI=0.911-0.938), a significant increase as compared to the model with only epidemiologic variables. The addition of HBV improved the AUC to 0.936 (95% CI=0.913-0.958). Similar results were obtained for sub-cohort without HCV testing. The addition of HCV status in combination with HBV status, the AUC improve to 0.941 (95% CI=0.918-0.967). Among models using key history and blood panels, the use of serum Transaminases only, available in routine health check-ups, was able to provide most information needed in predicting liver cancer in the general public. Additional testing of HBV and /or HCV further increased the prediction power. This simple transaminase-based model for the general public can be valuable in clinical practice for identifying high risk individuals.

Citation Format: {Authors}. {Abstract title} [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 103rd Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2012 Mar 31-Apr 4; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2012;72(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 5509. doi:1538-7445.AM2012-5509

Estimated glomerular filtration rate and the risk of major vascular events and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis

Background

Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) has been associated with an increased risk of major vascular events (MVEs) and death, but differences in methodology make between-study comparisons difficult. We used a novel method to summarise the published results.

Methods and Findings

Studies assessing the relationship between baseline eGFR and subsequent MVEs or all cause mortality were identified using Pubmed. Those which involved at least 500 individuals, planned at least 1 year of follow-up, reported age and sex adjusted relative risks, and provided the mean eGFR in each category (or sufficient information to allow its estimation) were included. To take account of differences in underlying risk between studies, proportional within-study differences in eGFR (rather than absolute eGFR values) were related to risk. Fifty studies (2 million participants) assessing MVEs and 67 studies (5 million participants) assessing all cause mortality were eligible. There was an inverse relationship between lower eGFR and the risk of MVEs and of death. In studies among people without prior vascular disease, a 30% lower eGFR level was on average associated with a 29% (SE 0.2%) increase in the risk of a MVE and a 31% (SE 0.2%) increase in the risk of death from any cause. In studies among people with prior vascular disease, these estimates were 26% (SE 1.0%) and 23% (SE 0.2%) respectively. While there was substantial statistical heterogeneity between the results of individual studies, a 30% lower eGFR was consistently associated with a 20-30% higher risk of both outcomes, irrespective of prior history of vascular disease or study design.

Conclusions

Lower eGFR was consistently associated with a moderate increase in the risk of death and MVEs. If these relationships are causal and continuous, then around one fifth of vascular events among those over 70 years might be attributable to renal impairment.

Cigarette smoking and proteinuria in Taiwanese men with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

AIMS

Cigarette smoking is a well-known risk factor associated with diabetic nephropathy. The objective of this study was to further investigate the dose-response effect of tobacco exposure on proteinuria in males with Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Five hundred and nine males with Type 2 diabetes were selected from a cohort participating in a glucose control study in Taiwan. Pack-years of cigarette smoking were calculated to define tobacco exposure. Proteinuria was identified if albumin-to-creatinine ratio was > or = 30 mg/g in at least two of three consecutive urine tests. Logistic regression and trend tests were used to delineate the association between smoking status and proteinuria.

RESULTS

Compared with non-smokers, those who had smoked 15-30 or more than 30 pack-years were respectively 2.78 (95% CI 1.34-5.76, P < 0.01) and 3.20 (95% CI 1.74-5.86, P < 0.001) times more likely to develop proteinuria. The dose-response effect of tobacco exposure on the development of proteinuria is highly significant in all subjects (P = 0.001) and in subgroups with relatively short duration of diabetes mellitus (P < 0.001), good blood pressure control (P = 0.001) and those of young age (P = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

The current study shows a clear dose-response effect of cigarette smoking on development of proteinuria in male Type 2 diabetic patients. These findings reinforce the urgent need to encourage diabetic patients to stop smoking regardless of age, duration of diabetes mellitus or status of blood pressure control.

Abstract A23: PSA testing and prostate cancer mortality in an Asian population: Linking prevalence of elevated PSA and mortality rate

Background: In Asian populations, prostate cancer mortality (PCM) has been increasing with the increasing use of PSA testing.

Objectives: 1) To establish prevalence of elevated PSA at different cutpoints in Taiwan and to assess the predictive relationship of PSA with PCM. 2) To compare PCM between those with PSA tested and not tested from a cohort study.

Methods: Among the cohort, 231,937, who received standard medical screening examination between 1994 and 2006 at a private screening clinic, 46,951 subjects, aged at least 50 years old, had PSA test results. Age and education were adjusted to those of Taiwan to arrive at national PSA prevalence. PCM was compared between the PSA untested (38,596) and PSA tested group (24,176), with the latter including those with a self-reported history of prostate cancer (1,675).

Results: National prevalence of PSA was 8.8% (threshold at 4) and 1.9% (threshold at 10). With national mortality rate at 30.1/100,000, the chance of dying in ten years was 3.4%, 15.8% or 27.9% among those above threshold at 4, 10, or 15, respectively, yielding false positives rates, with mortality as the outcome, 96.4%, 84.2% or 72.1%, and false negative rates, 12%, 33% or 50%, respectively. Having PSA tested, when compared with not tested, was not associated with decreased mortality from prostate cancer, even though PSA tested group, a higher educational class, had significantly decreased mortality from all cause. Increasing PSA levels were associated with increasing HRs.

Conclusion: PSA value above standard threshold of 4 is common in this Asian population (one out of 11 for age 50 and older), but only one in 29 tested positive was expected to die from prostate cancer within the next 10 years. This 10-year probability increased when threshold was 10 (1/6) but was still low. The high false positive rate of PSA (97%) and the harm associated with intervention among Asians should be communicated to the elderly patients, in view of the particularly low mortality rate of this cancer.

Citation Information: Cancer Prev Res 2010;3(1 Suppl):A23.