Assisting the implementation of screening for type 1 diabetes by using artificial intelligence on publicly available data

The type 1 diabetes community is coalescing around the benefits and advantages of early screening for disease risk. To be accepted by healthcare providers, regulatory authorities and payers, screening programmes need to show that the testing variables allow accurate risk prediction and that individualised risk-informed monitoring plans are established, as well as operational feasibility, cost-effectiveness and acceptance at population level. Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to contribute to solving these issues, starting with the identification and stratification of at-risk individuals. ASSET (AI for Sustainable Prevention of Autoimmunity in the Society; www.asset.healthcare ) is a public/private consortium that was established to contribute to research around screening for type 1 diabetes and particularly to how AI can drive the implementation of a precision medicine approach to disease prevention. ASSET will additionally focus on issues pertaining to operational implementation of screening. The authors of this article, researchers and clinicians active in the field of type 1 diabetes, met in an open forum to independently debate key issues around screening for type 1 diabetes and to advise ASSET. The potential use of AI in the analysis of longitudinal data from observational cohort studies to inform the design of improved, more individualised screening programmes was also discussed. A key issue was whether AI would allow the research community and industry to capitalise on large publicly available data repositories to design screening programmes that allow the early detection of individuals at high risk and enable clinical evaluation of preventive therapies. Overall, AI has the potential to revolutionise type 1 diabetes screening, in particular to help identify individuals who are at increased risk of disease and aid in the design of appropriate follow-up plans. We hope that this initiative will stimulate further research on this very timely topic.

Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study

AIMS

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence.

CONCLUSION

Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

An interplay between a hydrogen atmosphere and dislocation characteristics in BCC Fe from time-averaged molecular dynamics

The interplay between hydrogen and dislocations (e.g., core and elastic energies, and dislocation-dislocation interactions) has implications on hydrogen embrittlement but is poorly understood. Continuum models of hydrogen enhanced local plasticity have not considered the effect of hydrogen on dislocation core energies. Energy minimization atomistic simulations can only resolve dislocation core energies in hydrogen-free systems because hydrogen motion is omitted so hydrogen atmosphere formation can't occur. Additionally, previous studies focused more on face-centered-cubic than body-centered-cubic metals. Discrete dislocation dynamics studies of hydrogen-dislocation interactions assume isotropic elasticity, but the validity of this assumption isn't understood. We perform time-averaged molecular dynamics simulations to study the effect of hydrogen on dislocation energies in body-centered-cubic iron for several dislocation character angles. We see atmosphere formation and highly converged dislocation energies. We find that hydrogen reduces dislocation core energies but can increase or decrease elastic energies of isolated dislocations and dislocation-dislocation interaction energies depending on character angle. We also find that isotropic elasticity can be well fitted to dislocation energies obtained from simulations if the isotropic elastic constants are not constrained to their anisotropic counterparts. These results are relevant to ongoing efforts in understanding hydrogen embrittlement and provide a foundation for future work in this field.

Association of omega 3 polyunsaturated fatty acids with incident chronic kidney disease: pooled analysis of 19 cohorts

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prospective associations of circulating levels of omega 3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (n-3 PUFA) biomarkers (including plant derived α linolenic acid and seafood derived eicosapentaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid) with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD).

DESIGN

Pooled analysis.

DATA SOURCES

A consortium of 19 studies from 12 countries identified up to May 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Prospective studies with measured n-3 PUFA biomarker data and incident CKD based on estimated glomerular filtration rate.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Each participating cohort conducted de novo analysis with prespecified and consistent exposures, outcomes, covariates, and models. The results were pooled across cohorts using inverse variance weighted meta-analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome of incident CKD was defined as new onset estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. In a sensitivity analysis, incident CKD was defined as new onset estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and <75% of baseline rate.

RESULTS

25 570 participants were included in the primary outcome analysis and 4944 (19.3%) developed incident CKD during follow-up (weighted median 11.3 years). In multivariable adjusted models, higher levels of total seafood n-3 PUFAs were associated with a lower incident CKD risk (relative risk per interquintile range 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86 to 0.98; P=0.009, I2=9.9%). In categorical analyses, participants with total seafood n-3 PUFA level in the highest fifth had 13% lower risk of incident CKD compared with those in the lowest fifth (0.87, 0.80 to 0.96; P=0.005, I2=0.0%). Plant derived α linolenic acid levels were not associated with incident CKD (1.00, 0.94 to 1.06; P=0.94, I2=5.8%). Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analysis. The association appeared consistent across subgroups by age (≥60 v <60 years), estimated glomerular filtration rate (60-89 v ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2), hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart disease at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher seafood derived n-3 PUFA levels were associated with lower risk of incident CKD, although this association was not found for plant derived n-3 PUFAs. These results support a favourable role for seafood derived n-3 PUFAs in preventing CKD.

Including measures of chronic kidney disease to improve cardiovascular risk prediction by SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP

AIMS

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention categorizes moderate and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) as high and very-high CVD risk status regardless of other factors like age and does not include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria in its algorithms, systemic coronary risk estimation 2 (SCORE2) and systemic coronary risk estimation 2 in older persons (SCORE2-OP), to predict CVD risk. We developed and validated an 'Add-on' to incorporate CKD measures into these algorithms, using a validated approach.

METHODS

In 3,054 840 participants from 34 datasets, we developed three Add-ons [eGFR only, eGFR + urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) (the primary Add-on), and eGFR + dipstick proteinuria] for SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. We validated C-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI), accounting for competing risk of non-CVD death, in 5,997 719 participants from 34 different datasets.

RESULTS

In the target population of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP without diabetes, the CKD Add-on (eGFR only) and CKD Add-on (eGFR + ACR) improved C-statistic by 0.006 (95%CI 0.004-0.008) and 0.016 (0.010-0.023), respectively, for SCORE2 and 0.012 (0.009-0.015) and 0.024 (0.014-0.035), respectively, for SCORE2-OP. Similar results were seen when we included individuals with diabetes and tested the CKD Add-on (eGFR + dipstick). In 57 485 European participants with CKD, SCORE2 or SCORE2-OP with a CKD Add-on showed a significant NRI [e.g. 0.100 (0.062-0.138) for SCORE2] compared to the qualitative approach in the ESC guideline.

CONCLUSION

Our Add-ons with CKD measures improved CVD risk prediction beyond SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. This approach will help clinicians and patients with CKD refine risk prediction and further personalize preventive therapies for CVD.

The association between short-term, chronic localized and chronic widespread pain and risk for cardiovascular disease in the UK Biobank

AIMS

The interplay between pain of different chronicity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is incompletely understood. We aimed to investigate the association between different levels of chronic or nonchronic pain and risk of CVD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants in the UK Biobank who reported pain at baseline were divided into three groups according to pain duration and widespreadness. Participants reporting no pain were controls. Multivariable Cox regression was used to investigate the association between pain and incidence of myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, cardiovascular mortality, and composite CVD (defined as any of the before-mentioned cardiovascular events). Of 475 171 participants, 189 289 reported no pain, 87 830 reported short-term pain, 191 716 chronic localized pain, and 6336 chronic widespread pain (CWP). During a median of 7.0 years' follow-up, participants with chronic localized pain and CWP had, after adjustment for age, sex, established cardiovascular risk factors, physical activity, anxiety, depression, cancer, chronic inflammatory/painful disease, pain/anti-inflammatory medication, socioeconomic status, a significantly increased risk for composite CVD [hazard ratio (HR) 1.14, confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.21, P < 0.001; and HR 1.48, CI 1.28-1.73, P < 0.001, respectively] compared with controls, with similar results when using the different specific CVDs as outcomes. Population attributable risk proportion for chronic pain as a risk factor for composite CVD was comparable with that of diabetes (8.6 vs. 7.3%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Chronic pain is associated with an increased risk for myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and cardiovascular death independent of established cardiovascular risk factors, socioeconomic factors, comorbidities and medication. Our study, the largest to date, confirms and extends our understanding of chronic pain as an underestimated cardiovascular risk factor with important public health implications.

Phase III, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of rhGAD65 to preserve endogenous beta cell function in adolescents and adults with recently diagnosed type 1 diabetes, carrying the genetic HLA DR3-DQ2 haplotype: the DIAGNODE-3 study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is an autoimmune disease leading to the destruction of the insulin-producing beta cells resulting in insulin deficiency and hyperglycaemic. Today, no approved therapy exists to halt this detrimental immunologic process. In a recent phase 2b study, intralymphatic administration of recombinant human glutamic acid decarboxylase 65 kDa (rhGAD65) adsorbed to Alhydrogel adjuvant to individuals recently diagnosed with T1D and carrying the HLA DR3-DQ2 haplotype showed promising results in preserving endogenous insulin secretion, confirming the results of a large meta-analysis of three randomised placebo-controlled trials of subcutaneous rhGAD65. The aim of the current precision medicine phase 3 study is to determine whether intralymphatic administration of rhGAD65 preserves insulin secretion and improves glycaemic control in presumed responder individuals with recently diagnosed T1D carrying HLA DR3-DQ2.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Individuals ≥12 and <29 years recently diagnosed with T1D (<6 months) will be screened for the HLA DR3-DQ2 haplotype, endogenous insulin production estimated by fasting C-peptide and presence of GAD65 antibodies. 330 patients are planned to be randomised to 3 monthly intralymphatic injections of rhGAD65 or placebo (both accompanied by oral vitamin D supplementation), followed by 22 months of follow-up. The study is powered to detect a treatment effect in the two coprimary endpoints; change from baseline in AUC_(0-120min) C-peptide levels during a mixed meal tolerance test, and change from baseline in glycaemic control estimated by haemoglobin A1c at 24 months. Secondary endpoints include effects on glucose patterns collected by masked continuous glucose monitoring, proportion of patients in partial remission and number of episodes of severe hypoglycaemia and/or diabetic ketoacidosis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial is approved by Ethics Committees in Poland (124/2021), the Netherlands (R21.089), Sweden (2021-05063), Czech Republic (EK-1144/21), Germany (2021361) and Spain (21/2021). Results will be published in international peer-reviewed scientific journals and presented at national and international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

EudraCT identifier: 2021-002731-32, NCT identifier: NCT05018585.

An online atlas of human plasma metabolite signatures of gut microbiome composition

Human gut microbiota produce a variety of molecules, some of which enter the bloodstream and impact health. Conversely, dietary or pharmacological compounds may affect the microbiota before entering the circulation. Characterization of these interactions is an important step towards understanding the effects of the gut microbiota on health. In this cross-sectional study, we used deep metagenomic sequencing and ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography linked to mass spectrometry for a detailed characterization of the gut microbiota and plasma metabolome, respectively, of 8583 participants invited at age 50 to 64 from the population-based Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study. Here, we find that the gut microbiota explain up to 58% of the variance of individual plasma metabolites and we present 997 associations between alpha diversity and plasma metabolites and 546,819 associations between specific gut metagenomic species and plasma metabolites in an online atlas (https://gutsyatlas.serve.scilifelab.se/). We exemplify the potential of this resource by presenting novel associations between dietary factors and oral medication with the gut microbiome, and microbial species strongly associated with the uremic toxin p-cresol sulfate. This resource can be used as the basis for targeted studies of perturbation of specific metabolites and for identification of candidate plasma biomarkers of gut microbiota composition.

Here, Dekkers et al. characterize associations of 1528 gut metagenomic species with the plasma metabolome in 8583 participants of the SCAPIS Study, and find that gut microbiota explain up to 58% of the variance of individual plasma metabolites.

Intralymphatic GAD-Alum (Diamyd®) Improves Glycemic Control in Type 1 Diabetes With HLA DR3-DQ2

AIMS

Residual beta cell function in type 1 diabetes (T1D) is associated with lower risk of complications. Autoantigen therapy with GAD-alum (Diamyd) given in 3 intralymphatic injections with oral vitamin D has shown promising results in persons with T1D carrying the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) DR3-DQ2 haplotype in the phase 2b trial DIAGNODE-2. We aimed to explore the efficacy of intralymphatic GAD-alum on blood glucose recorded by continuous glucose monitoring (CGM).

METHODS

DIAGNODE-2 (NCT03345004) was a multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of 109 recent-onset T1D patients aged 12 to 24 years with GAD65 antibodies and fasting C-peptide > 0.12 nmol/L, which randomized patients to 3 intralymphatic injections of 4 μg GAD-alum and oral vitamin D, or placebo. We report results for exploratory endpoints assessed by 14-day CGM at months 0, 6, and 15. Treatment arms were compared by mixed-effects models for repeated measures adjusting for baseline values.

RESULTS

We included 98 patients with CGM recordings of sufficient quality (DR3-DQ2-positive patients: 27 GAD-alum-treated and 15 placebo-treated). In DR3-DQ2-positive patients, percent of time in range (TIR, 3.9-10 mmol/L) declined less between baseline and month 15 in GAD-alum-treated compared with placebo-treated patients (-5.1% and -16.7%, respectively; P = 0.0075), with reduced time > 13.9 mmol/L (P = 0.0036), and significant benefits on the glucose management indicator (P = 0.0025). No differences were detected for hypoglycemia. GAD-alum compared to placebo lowered the increase in glycemic variability (standard deviation) observed in both groups (P = 0.0219). Change in C-peptide was correlated with the change in TIR.

CONCLUSIONS

Intralymphatic GAD-alum improves glycemic control in recently diagnosed T1D patients carrying HLA DR3-DQ2.

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10-24 years in the EU, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Disability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU.

METHODS

Estimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Causes of NCDs were analysed at three different levels of the GBD 2019 hierarchy, for which mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted. Estimates, with the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were retrieved for EU Member States from 1990 to 2019, three age subgroups (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years), and by sex. Spearman's correlation was conducted between DALY rates for NCDs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of each EU Member State.

FINDINGS

In 2019, NCDs accounted for 86·4% (95% uncertainty interval 83·5-88·8) of all YLDs and 38·8% (37·4-39·8) of total deaths in adolescents aged 10-24 years. For NCDs in this age group, neoplasms were the leading causes of both mortality (4·01 [95% uncertainty interval 3·62-4·25] per 100 000 population) and YLLs (281·78 [254·25-298·92] per 100 000 population), whereas mental disorders were the leading cause for YLDs (2039·36 [1432·56-2773·47] per 100 000 population) and DALYs (2040·59 [1433·96-2774·62] per 100 000 population) in all EU Member States, and in all studied age groups. In 2019, among adolescents aged 10-24 years, males had a higher mortality rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs than females (11·66 [11·04-12·28] vs 7·89 [7·53-8·23]), whereas females presented a higher DALY rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs (8003·25 [5812·78-10 701·59] vs 6083·91 [4576·63-7857·92]). From 1990 to 2019, mortality rate due to NCDs in adolescents aged 10-24 years substantially decreased (-40·41% [-43·00 to -37·61), and also the YLL rate considerably decreased (-40·56% [-43·16 to -37·74]), except for mental disorders (which increased by 32·18% [1·67 to 66·49]), whereas the YLD rate increased slightly (1·44% [0·09 to 2·79]). Positive correlations were observed between DALY rates and SDIs for substance use disorders (r_s=0·58, p=0·0012) and skin and subcutaneous diseases (r_s=0·45, p=0·017), whereas negative correlations were found between DALY rates and SDIs for cardiovascular diseases (r_s=-0·46, p=0·015), neoplasms (r_s=-0·57, p=0·0015), and sense organ diseases (r_s=-0·61, p=0·0005).

INTERPRETATION

NCD-related mortality has substantially declined among adolescents in the EU between 1990 and 2019, but the rising trend of YLL attributed to mental disorders and their YLD burden are concerning. Differences by sex, age group, and across EU Member States highlight the importance of preventive interventions and scaling up adolescent-responsive health-care systems, which should prioritise specific needs by sex, age, and location.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Epigenome-wide association study of serum urate reveals insights into urate co-regulation and the SLC2A9 locus

Elevated serum urate levels, a complex trait and major risk factor for incident gout, are correlated with cardiometabolic traits via incompletely understood mechanisms. DNA methylation in whole blood captures genetic and environmental influences and is assessed in transethnic meta-analysis of epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of serum urate (discovery, n = 12,474, replication, n = 5522). The 100 replicated, epigenome-wide significant (p < 1.1E-7) CpGs explain 11.6% of the serum urate variance. At SLC2A9, the serum urate locus with the largest effect in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), five CpGs are associated with SLC2A9 gene expression. Four CpGs at SLC2A9 have significant causal effects on serum urate levels and/or gout, and two of these partly mediate the effects of urate-associated GWAS variants. In other genes, including SLC7A11 and PHGDH, 17 urate-associated CpGs are associated with conditions defining metabolic syndrome, suggesting that these CpGs may represent a blood DNA methylation signature of cardiometabolic risk factors. This study demonstrates that EWAS can provide new insights into GWAS loci and the correlation of serum urate with other complex traits.

Meta-analyses identify DNA methylation associated with kidney function and damage

Chronic kidney disease is a major public health burden. Elevated urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio is a measure of kidney damage, and used to diagnose and stage chronic kidney disease. To extend the knowledge on regulatory mechanisms related to kidney function and disease, we conducted a blood-based epigenome-wide association study for estimated glomerular filtration rate (n = 33,605) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (n = 15,068) and detected 69 and seven CpG sites where DNA methylation was associated with the respective trait. The majority of these findings showed directionally consistent associations with the respective clinical outcomes chronic kidney disease and moderately increased albuminuria. Associations of DNA methylation with kidney function, such as CpGs at JAZF1, PELI1 and CHD2 were validated in kidney tissue. Methylation at PHRF1, LDB2, CSRNP1 and IRF5 indicated causal effects on kidney function. Enrichment analyses revealed pathways related to hemostasis and blood cell migration for estimated glomerular filtration rate, and immune cell activation and response for urinary albumin-to-creatinineratio-associated CpGs.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The genomics of heart failure: design and rationale of the HERMES consortium

Aims

The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targetS) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure.

Methods and results

The consortium currently includes 51 studies from 11 countries, including 68 157 heart failure cases and 949 888 controls, with data on heart failure events and prognosis. All studies collected biological samples and performed genome‐wide genotyping of common genetic variants. The enrolment of subjects into participating studies ranged from 1948 to the present day, and the median follow‐up following heart failure diagnosis ranged from 2 to 116 months. Forty‐nine of 51 individual studies enrolled participants of both sexes; in these studies, participants with heart failure were predominantly male (34–90%). The mean age at diagnosis or ascertainment across all studies ranged from 54 to 84 years. Based on the aggregate sample, we estimated 80% power to genetic variant associations with risk of heart failure with an odds ratio of ≥1.10 for common variants (allele frequency ≥ 0.05) and ≥1.20 for low‐frequency variants (allele frequency 0.01–0.05) at P < 5 × 10⁻⁸ under an additive genetic model.

Conclusions

HERMES is a global collaboration aiming to (i) identify the genetic determinants of heart failure; (ii) generate insights into the causal pathways leading to heart failure and enable genetic approaches to target prioritization; and (iii) develop genomic tools for disease stratification and risk prediction.

Albuminuria Testing in Hypertension and Diabetes: An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis in a Global Consortium

Albuminuria is an under-recognized component of chronic kidney disease definition, staging, and prognosis. Guidelines, particularly for hypertension, conflict on recommendations for urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) measurement. Separately among 1 344 594 adults with diabetes and 2 334 461 nondiabetic adults with hypertension from the chronic kidney disease Prognosis Consortium, we assessed ACR testing, estimated the prevalence and incidence of ACR ≥30 mg/g and developed risk models for ACR ≥30 mg/g. The ACR screening rate (cohort range) was 35.1% (12.3%-74.5%) in diabetes and 4.1% (1.3%-20.7%) in hypertension. Screening was largely unrelated to the predicted risk of prevalent albuminuria. The median prevalence of ACR ≥30 mg/g across cohorts was 32.1% in diabetes and 21.8% in hypertension. Higher systolic blood pressure was associated with a higher prevalence of albuminuria (odds ratio [95% CI] per 20 mm Hg in diabetes, 1.50 [1.42-1.60]; in hypertension, 1.36 [1.28-1.45]). The ratio of undetected (due to lack of screening) to detected ACR ≥30 mg/g was estimated at 1.8 in diabetes and 19.5 in hypertension. Among those with ACR <30 mg/g, the median 5-year incidence of ACR ≥30 mg/g across cohorts was 23.9% in diabetes and 21.7% in hypertension. Incident albuminuria was associated with initiation of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (incidence-rate ratio [95% CI], diabetes 3.09 [2.71-3.53]; hypertension 2.87 [2.29-3.59]). In conclusion, despite similar risk of albuminuria to those with diabetes, ACR screening in patients with hypertension was low. Our findings suggest that regular albuminuria screening should be emphasized to enable early detection of chronic kidney disease and initiation of treatment with cardiovascular and renal benefits.

Association between Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Circulating Proteins in 50-Year-Old Swedish Men and Women: a Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A strong cardiorespiratory fitness is suggested to have beneficial effects on cardiovascular risk; the exact mechanisms underlying the cardioprotective effects of fitness remain uncertain. Our aim was to investigate associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and multiple plasma proteins, in order to obtain insights about physiological pathways associated with the effects of exercise on cardiovascular health.

METHODS

In the Prospective investigation of Obesity, Energy and Metabolism (POEM) study (n=444 adults aged 50 years, 50% women), cardiorespiratory fitness was measured by a maximal exercise test on bicycle ergometer with gas exchange (VO₂peak) normalized for body lean mass (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)). We measured 82 cardiovascular proteins associated with cardiovascular pathology and inflammation in plasma samples with a proximity extension assay.

RESULTS

In sex-adjusted linear regression, VO₂peak was associated with 18 proteins after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing (p<0.0006). Following additional adjustment for fat mass (DXA), fasting glucose (mmol/L), low-density lipoprotein (LDL, mmol/L), smoking status, waist/hip ratio, blood pressure (mmHg), education level, and lpnr (lab sequence number), higher VO₂peak was significantly associated with lower levels of 6 proteins: fatty-acid binding protein-4 (FABP4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), leptin, cystatin-B (CSTB), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA), and growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), and higher levels of 3 proteins: galanin, kallikrein-6 (KLK6), and heparin-binding EGF-like growth factor (HB-EGF), at nominal p-values (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified multiple novel associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and plasma proteins involved in several atherosclerotic processes and key cellular mechanisms such as inflammation, energy homeostasis, and protease activity, which shed new light on how exercise asserts its beneficial effects on cardiovascular health. Our findings encourage additional studies in order to understand the underlying causal mechanisms for these associations.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Synthetic biology as driver for the biologization of materials sciences

Materials in nature have fascinating properties that serve as a continuous source of inspiration for materials scientists. Accordingly, bio-mimetic and bio-inspired approaches have yielded remarkable structural and functional materials for a plethora of applications. Despite these advances, many properties of natural materials remain challenging or yet impossible to incorporate into synthetic materials. Natural materials are produced by living cells, which sense and process environmental cues and conditions by means of signaling and genetic programs, thereby controlling the biosynthesis, remodeling, functionalization, or degradation of the natural material. In this context, synthetic biology offers unique opportunities in materials sciences by providing direct access to the rational engineering of how a cell senses and processes environmental information and translates them into the properties and functions of materials. Here, we identify and review two main directions by which synthetic biology can be harnessed to provide new impulses for the biologization of the materials sciences: first, the engineering of cells to produce precursors for the subsequent synthesis of materials. This includes materials that are otherwise produced from petrochemical resources, but also materials where the bio-produced substances contribute unique properties and functions not existing in traditional materials. Second, engineered living materials that are formed or assembled by cells or in which cells contribute specific functions while remaining an integral part of the living composite material. We finally provide a perspective of future scientific directions of this promising area of research and discuss science policy that would be required to support research and development in this field.

Estimated salt intake and risk of atrial fibrillation in a prospective community-based cohort

INTRODUCTION

Hypertension predisposes to atrial fibrillation (AF) - a major risk factor for ischaemic stroke. Since a high dietary salt consumption is associated with hypertension, we investigated the association between urinary sodium excretion as a marker for dietary sodium intake and risk of new-onset AF in community-dwelling adults.

METHOD

The UK Biobank includes 40- to 69-year-old British residents recruited 2006-2010. Participants were divided into sex-specific quintiles according to 24-hour sodium excretion estimated based on spot samples with the Kawasaki equation. We excluded participants with AF at baseline. Cox regression adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors was used to assess associations with risk of AF, using the third quintile as reference.

RESULTS

A total of 257 545 women and 215 535 men were included. During up to 10 years' follow-up, 2221 women and 3751 men were diagnosed with AF. There was a tendency for an increased risk of AF in the lowest and highest quintiles of estimated daily salt intake in both women and men. In the fully adjusted model, significant associations were seen amongst men in the lowest and highest quintiles of sodium excretion (hazard ratio, HR_Qv1 , 1.20; 95% CI, 1.08-1.32, P < 0.001, and HR_Qv5 1.15, 95% CI, 1.03-1.27, P = 0.011).

CONCLUSION

We found evidence for a U-shaped association between estimated daily salt intake and AF risk amongst men. A suggestive J-shaped association in women was not statistically confirmed, but analyses were likely underpowered. Our results suggest that above a certain physiological minimum level progressively higher salt intake is associated with increasing risk of AF.

Plasma proteomics and lung function in four community-based cohorts

BACKGROUND

Underlying mechanism leading to impaired lung function are incompletely understood.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether protein profiling can provide novel insights into mechanisms leading to impaired lung function.

METHODS

We used four community-based studies (n = 2552) to investigate associations between 79 cardiovascular/inflammatory proteins and forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted (FEV₁%) assessed by spirometry. We divided the cohorts into discovery and replication samples and used risk factor-adjusted linear regression corrected for multiple comparison (false discovery rate of 5%). We performed Mendelian randomization analyses using genetic and spirometry data from the UK Biobank (n = 421,986) to assess causality.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In cross-sectional analysis, 22 proteins were associated with lower FEV₁% in both the discovery and replication sample, regardless of stratification by smoking status. The combined proteomic data cumulatively explained 5% of the variation in FEV₁%. In longitudinal analyses (n = 681), higher plasma levels of growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) predicted a more rapid 5-year decline in lung function (change in FEV₁% per standard deviation of protein level -1.4, (95% CI, -2.5 to -0.3) for GDF-15, and -0.8, (95% CI, -1.5 to -0.2) for IL-6. Mendelian randomization analysis in UK-biobank provided support for a causal effect of increased GDF-15 levels and reduced FEV₁%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our combined approach identified GDF-15 as a potential causal factor in the development of impaired lung function in the general population. These findings encourage additional studies evaluating the role of GDF-15 as a causal factor for impaired lung function.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Incorporating kidney disease measures into cardiovascular risk prediction: Development and validation in 9 million adults from 72 datasets

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) are frequently assessed in clinical practice and improve the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet most major clinical guidelines do not have a standardized approach for incorporating these measures into CVD risk prediction. "CKD Patch" is a validated method to calibrate and improve the predicted risk from established equations according to CKD measures.

METHODS

Utilizing data from 4,143,535 adults from 35 datasets, we developed several "CKD Patches" incorporating eGFR and albuminuria, to enhance prediction of risk of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and CVD mortality by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The risk enhancement by CKD Patch was determined by the deviation between individual CKD measures and the values expected from their traditional CVD risk factors and the hazard ratios for eGFR and albuminuria. We then validated this approach among 4,932,824 adults from 37 independent datasets, comparing the original PCE and SCORE equations (recalibrated in each dataset) to those with addition of CKD Patch.

FINDINGS

We confirmed the prediction improvement with the CKD Patch for CVD mortality beyond SCORE and ASCVD beyond PCE in validation datasets (Δc-statistic 0.027 [95% CI 0.018-0.036] and 0.010 [0.007-0.013] and categorical net reclassification improvement 0.080 [0.032-0.127] and 0.056 [0.044-0.067], respectively). The median (IQI) of the ratio of predicted risk for CVD mortality with CKD Patch vs. the original prediction with SCORE was 2.64 (1.89-3.40) in very high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 30-44 ml/min/1.73m² with albuminuria ≥30 mg/g), 1.86 (1.48-2.44) in high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 45-59 ml/min/1.73m² with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), and 1.37 (1.14-1.69) in moderate risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 60-89 ml/min/1.73m² with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), indicating considerable risk underestimation in CKD with SCORE. The corresponding estimates for ASCVD with PCE were 1.55 (1.37-1.81), 1.24 (1.10-1.54), and 1.21 (0.98-1.46).

INTERPRETATION

The "CKD Patch" can be used to quantitatively enhance ASCVD and CVD mortality risk prediction equations recommended in major US and European guidelines according to CKD measures, when available.

FUNDING

US National Kidney Foundation and the NIDDK.

Kidney Disease Biomarkers Improve Heart Failure Risk Prediction in the General Population

BACKGROUND

The kidneys play an important role in heart failure (HF), but it is unclear if renal biomarkers improve HF risk prediction beyond established risk factors. We aimed to assess whether adding biomarkers of kidney disease to conventional risk factors improved 10-year risk prediction for incident HF in a contemporary community sample.

METHODS

We included 450 212 participants in the UK Biobank aged 39 to 70 years without HF who had been assessed in 2006 to 2010 with the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on serum creatinine and cystatin C. There were 1701 incident cases of HF during up to 10.3 years of follow-up (mean 8.2±0.7 years). We used the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study heart failure risk score excluding natriuretic peptides as the base model to which we added eGFR and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. Harrell's C-statistic of ARIC-HF was 0.845 (95% CI, 0.831-0.859).

RESULTS

Each combination of added kidney measures (creat-eGFR, cysC-eGFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio) led to significant improvement in risk discrimination, calibration, and reclassification. The optimal pair of added kidney measures was cysC-eGFR and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ΔC=0.019 [95% CI, 0.015-0.022]). Addition of cysC-eGFR made the largest contribution to reclassification improvement (continuous net reclassification improvement 0.323 [95% CI, 0.278-0.360]).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large community sample, the addition of kidney disease markers to conventional risk factors improved prediction of 10-year HF risk. Our results support including kidney disease markers in the identification of persons at highest risk of HF and demonstrate a possible role of impaired kidney function in HF development in asymptomatic persons.

The association between plasma proteomics and incident cardiovascular disease identifies MMP-12 as a promising cardiovascular risk marker in patients with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous proteomics efforts in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have predominantly evaluated urinary protein levels. Therefore, our aim was to investigate the association between plasma levels of 80 cardiovascular disease-related proteins and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with CKD.

METHODS

Individuals with CKD stages 3-5 (eGFR below 60 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2) from three community-based cohorts (PIVUS, ULSAM, SAVA), one diabetes cohort (CARDIPP) and one cohort with peripheral artery disease patients (PADVA) with information on 80 plasma protein biomarkers, assessed with a proximity extension assay, and follow-up data on incident MACE, were used as discovery sample. To validate findings and to asses generalizability to patients with CKD in clinical practice, an outpatient CKD-cohort (Malnutrition, Inflammation and Vascular Calcification (MIVC)) was used as replication sample.

RESULTS

In the discovery sample (total n = 1316), 249 individuals experienced MACE during 7.0 ± 2.9 years (range 0.005-12.9) of follow-up, and in the replication sample, 71 MACE events in 283 individuals over a mean ± SD change of 2.9 ± 1.2 years (range 0.1-4.0) were documented. Applying Bonferroni correction, 18 proteins were significantly associated with risk of MACE in the discovery cohort, adjusting for age and sex in order of significance, GDF-15, FGF-23, REN, FABP4, IL6, TNF-R1, AGRP, MMP-12, AM, KIM-1, TRAILR2, TNFR2, CTSL1, CSF1, PlGF, CA-125, CCL20 and PAR-1 (p < 0.000625 for all). Only matrix metalloproteinase 12 (MMP-12) was significantly associated with an increased risk of MACE in the replication sample (hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.36, 95% CI (1.07-1.75), p = 0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

Our proteomics analyses identified plasma MMP-12 as a promising cardiovascular risk marker in patients with CKD.

Atherosclerotic Aortic Calcification-Associated Polymorphism in HDAC9 and Associations with Mortality, Cardiovascular Disease, and Kidney Disease

Histone deacetylase 9 (HDAC9) has recently been demonstrated as a key regulator of vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) phenotype and is associated with abdominal aortic calcification, myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke. It is uncertain whether HDAC9 is also implicated in other VSMC-driven diseases. Our objective was to assess associations between abdominal aortic calcification-associated genetic variation in HDAC9 and VSMC-associated phenotypes. In this prospective population study of 335,146 adults enrolled in the UK Biobank, the abdominal aortic calcification-associated risk allele of a genetic variant in HDAC9 was associated with increased risk of systolic hypertension, non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke. There was a suggestive protective association with kidney disease outcomes that did not reach experiment-wise significance. These genetic results lend further support for HDAC9 as a potential therapeutic target for arterial stenotic and calcific disease.

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout.

METHODS

The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, -1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, -1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function.

INTERPRETATION

Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a potential biomarker of both diabetic kidney disease and future cardiovascular events in cohorts of individuals with type 2 diabetes: a proteomics approach

Background: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a leading risk factor for end-stage renal disease and is one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes. It is possible that novel markers portraying the pathophysiological underpinning processes may be useful.Aim: To investigate the associations between 80 circulating proteins, measured by a proximity extension assay, and prevalent DKD and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in type 2 diabetes.Methods: We randomly divided individuals with type 2 diabetes from three cohorts into a two-thirds discovery and one-third replication set (total n = 813, of whom 231 had DKD defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mg/mL/1.73 m² and/or urinary albumin-creatinine ratio ≥3 g/mol). Proteins associated with DKD were also assessed as predictors for incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in persons with DKD at baseline.Results: Four proteins were positively associated with DKD in models adjusted for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, glucose control, and diabetes medication: kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1, odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation increment, 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27-2.14); growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15, OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-1.69); myoglobin (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.30-1.91), and matrix metalloproteinase 10 (MMP-10, OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.17-1.74). In patients with DKD, GDF-15 was significantly associated with increased risk of MACE after adjustments for baseline age, sex, microalbuminuria, and kidney function and (59 MACE events during 7 years follow-up, hazard ratio per standard deviation increase 1.43 [95% CI 1.03-1.98]) but not after further adjustments for cardiovascular risk factors.Conclusion: Our proteomics approach confirms and extends previous associations of higher circulating levels of GDF-15 with both micro- and macrovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes. Our data encourage additional studies evaluating the clinical utility of our findings.

Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein-A as a Cardiovascular Risk Marker in Patients with Stable Coronary Heart Disease During 10 Years Follow-Up-A CLARICOR Trial Sub-Study

Elevated pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) is associated with mortality in acute coronary syndromes. Few studies have assessed PAPP-A in stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and results are conflicting. We assessed the 10-year prognostic relevance of PAPP-A levels in stable CAD. The CLARICOR trial was a randomized controlled clinical trial including outpatients with stable CAD, randomized to clarithromycin versus placebo. The placebo group constituted our discovery cohort (n = 1.996) and the clarithromycin group the replication cohort (n = 1.975). The composite primary outcome was first occurrence of cardiovascular event or death. In the discovery cohort, incidence rates (IR) for the composite outcome were higher in those with elevated PAPP-A (IR 12.72, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 11.0-14.7 events/100 years) compared to lower PAPP-A (IR 8.78, 8.25-9.34), with comparable results in the replication cohort. Elevated PAPP-A was associated with increased risk of the composite outcome in both cohorts (discovery Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.45, 95% CI 1.24-1.70; replication HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.10-1.52). In models adjusted for established risk factors, these trends were attenuated. Elevated PAPP-A was associated with higher all-cause mortality in both cohorts. We conclude that elevated PAPP-A levels are associated with increased long-term mortality in stable CAD, but do not improve long-term prediction of death or cardiovascular events when added to established predictors.

In search of causal pathways in diabetes: a study using proteomics and genotyping data from a cross-sectional study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes is not fully understood. We investigated whether circulating levels of preselected proteins were associated with the outcome 'diabetes' and whether these associations were causal.

METHODS

In 2467 individuals of the population-based, cross-sectional EpiHealth study (45-75 years, 50% women), 249 plasma proteins were analysed by the proximity extension assay technique. DNA was genotyped using the Illumina HumanCoreExome-12 v1.0 BeadChip. Diabetes was defined as taking glucose-lowering treatment or having a fasting plasma glucose of ≥7.0 mmol/l. The associations between proteins and diabetes were assessed using logistic regression. To investigate causal relationships between proteins and diabetes, a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomisation was performed based on large, genome-wide association studies belonging to the DIAGRAM and MAGIC consortia, and a genome-wide association study in the EpiHealth study.

RESULTS

Twenty-six proteins were positively associated with diabetes, including cathepsin D, retinal dehydrogenase 1, α-L-iduronidase, hydroxyacid oxidase 1 and galectin-4 (top five findings). Three proteins, lipoprotein lipase, IGF-binding protein 2 and paraoxonase 3 (PON-3), were inversely associated with diabetes. Fourteen of the proteins are novel discoveries. The Mendelian randomisation study did not disclose any significant causal effects between the proteins and diabetes in either direction that were consistent with the relationships found between the protein levels and diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The 29 proteins associated with diabetes are involved in several physiological pathways, but given the power of the study no causal link was identified for those proteins tested in Mendelian randomisation. Therefore, the identified proteins are likely to be biomarkers for type 2 diabetes, rather than representing causal pathways.

Cathepsin D improves the prediction of undetected diabetes in patients with myocardial infarction

Background: Newer therapeutic agents for type 2 diabetes mellitus can improve cardiovascular outcomes, but diabetes remains underdiagnosed in patients with myocardial infarction (MI). We sought to identify proteomic markers of undetected dysglycaemia (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, or diabetes mellitus) to improve the identification of patients at highest risk for diabetes. Materials and methods: In this prospective cohort, 626 patients without known diabetes underwent oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) during admission for MI. Proximity extension assay was used to measure 81 biomarkers. Multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for risk factors, was used to evaluate the association of biomarkers with dysglycaemia. Subsequently, lasso regression was performed in a 2/3 training set to identify proteomic biomarkers with prognostic value for dysglycaemia, when added to risk factors, fasting plasma glucose, and glycated haemoglobin A1c. Determination of discriminatory ability was performed in a 1/3 test set. Results: In total, 401/626 patients (64.1%) met the criteria for dysglycaemia. Using multivariable logistic regression, cathepsin D had the strongest association with dysglycaemia. Lasso regression selected seven markers, including cathepsin D, that improved prediction of dysglycaemia (area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] 0.848 increased to 0.863). In patients with normal fasting plasma glucose, only cathepsin D was selected (AUC 0.699 increased to 0.704). Conclusions: Newly detected dysglycaemia, including manifest diabetes, is common in patients with acute MI. Cathepsin D improved the prediction of dysglycaemia, which may be helpful in the a priori risk determination of diabetes as a motivation for confirmatory OGTT.

The metabolites urobilin and sphingomyelin (30:1) are associated with incident heart failure in the general population

Aims

We aimed to investigate whether metabolomic profiling of blood can lead to novel insights into heart failure pathogenesis or improved risk prediction.

Methods and results

Mass spectrometry‐based metabolomic profiling was performed in plasma or serum samples from three community‐based cohorts without heart failure at baseline (total n = 3924; 341 incident heart failure events; median follow‐up ranging from 4.6 to 13.9 years). Cox proportional hazard models were applied to assess the association of each of the 206 identified metabolites with incident heart failure in the discovery cohorts Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) (n = 920) and Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) (n = 1121). Replication was undertaken in the independent cohort TwinGene (n = 1797). We also assessed whether metabolites could improve the prediction of heart failure beyond established risk factors (age, sex, body mass index, low‐density and high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, lipid medication, diabetes, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, blood pressure medication, glomerular filtration rate, smoking status, and myocardial infarction prior to or during follow‐up). Higher circulating urobilin and lower sphingomyelin (30:1) were associated with incident heart failure in age‐adjusted and sex‐adjusted models in the discovery and replication sample. The hazard ratio for urobilin in the replication cohort was estimated to 1.29 per standard deviation unit, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.03–1.63), and for sphingomyelin (30:1) to 0.72 (95% CI 0.58–0.89). Results remained similar after further adjustment for established heart failure risk factors in meta‐analyses of all three cohorts. Urobilin concentrations were inversely associated with left ventricular ejection fraction at baseline in the PIVUS cohort (β = −0.70, 95% CI −1.03 to −0.38). No major improvement in risk prediction was observed when adding the top 2 metabolites (C‐index 0.787, 95% CI 0.752–0.823) or nine Lasso‐selected metabolites (0.790, 95% CI 0.754–0.826) to a modified Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities heart failure risk score model (0.780, 95% CI 0.745–0.816).

Conclusions

Our metabolomic profiling of three community‐based cohorts study identified associations of circulating levels of the haem breakdown product urobilin, and sphingomyelin (30:1), a cell membrane component involved in signal transduction and apoptosis, with incident heart failure.

Circulating proteins as predictors of cardiovascular mortality in end-stage renal disease

Introduction

Proteomic profiling of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients could lead to improved risk prediction and novel insights into cardiovascular disease mechanisms. Plasma levels of 92 cardiovascular disease-associated proteins were assessed by proximity extension assay (Proseek Multiplex CVD-1, Olink Bioscience, Uppsala, Sweden) in a discovery cohort of dialysis patients, the Mapping of Inflammatory Markers in Chronic Kidney disease cohort [MIMICK; n = 183, 55% women, mean age 63 years, 46 cardiovascular deaths during follow-up (mean 43 months)]. Significant results were replicated in the incident and prevalent hemodialysis arm of the Salford Kidney Study [SKS dialysis study, n = 186, 73% women, mean age 62 years, 45 cardiovascular deaths during follow-up (mean 12 months)], and in the CKD5-LD-RTxcohort with assessments of coronary artery calcium (CAC)-score by cardiac computed tomography (n = 89, 37% women, mean age 46 years).

Results

In age and sex-adjusted Cox regression in MIMICK, 11 plasma proteins were nominally associated with cardiovascular mortality (in order of significance: Kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), Matrix metalloproteinase-7, Tumour necrosis factor receptor 2, Interleukin-6, Matrix metalloproteinase-1, Brain-natriuretic peptide, ST2 protein, Hepatocyte growth factor, TNF-related apoptosis inducing ligand receptor-2, Spondin-1, and Fibroblast growth factor 25). Only plasma KIM-1 was associated with cardiovascular mortality after correction for multiple testing, but also after adjustment for dialysis vintage, cardiovascular risk factors and inflammation (hazard ratio) per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.84, 95% CI 1.26–2.69, p = 0.002. Addition of KIM-1, or nine of the most informative proteins to an established risk-score (modified AROii CVM-score) improved discrimination of cardiovascular mortality risk from C = 0.777 to C = 0.799 and C = 0.823, respectively. In the SKS dialysis study, KIM-1 predicted cardiovascular mortality in age and sex adjusted models (hazard ratio per SD increase 1.45, 95% CI 1.03–2.05, p = 0.034) and higher KIM-1 was associated with higher CACscores in the CKD5-LD-RTx-cohort.

Conclusions

Our proteomics approach identified plasma KIM-1 as a risk marker for cardiovascular mortality and coronary artery calcification in three independent ESRD-cohorts. The improved risk prediction for cardiovascular mortality by plasma proteomics merit further studies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s40620-018-0556-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A Mendelian randomization study of the effects of blood lipids on breast cancer risk

Observational studies have reported inconsistent associations between circulating lipids and breast cancer risk. Using results from >400,000 participants in two-sample Mendelian randomization, we show that genetically raised LDL-cholesterol is associated with higher risk of breast cancer (odds ratio, OR, per standard deviation, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.18, P = 0.020) and estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer (OR 1.14 [1.05-1.24] P = 0.004). Genetically raised HDL-cholesterol is associated with higher risk of ER-positive breast cancer (OR 1.13 [1.01-1.26] P = 0.037). HDL-cholesterol-raising variants in the gene encoding the target of CETP inhibitors are associated with higher risk of breast cancer (OR 1.07 [1.03-1.11] P = 0.001) and ER-positive breast cancer (OR 1.08 [1.03-1.13] P = 0.001). LDL-cholesterol-lowering variants mimicking PCSK9 inhibitors are associated (P = 0.014) with lower breast cancer risk. We find no effects related to the statin and ezetimibe target genes. The possible risk-promoting effects of raised LDL-cholesterol and CETP-mediated raised HDL-cholesterol have implications for breast cancer prevention and clinical trials.

Endothelial dysfunction is associated with impaired lung function in two independent community cohorts

BACKGROUND

Prior studies investigating the association between endothelial dysfunction and impaired lung function have been small and inconsistent. The primary aim was to investigate the association between endothelial function and lung function in two community-based cohorts.

METHODS

We used a discovery/replication approach to study the association between endothelial function and lung function in the Prospective investigation of Obesity, Energy and Metabolism (POEM, discovery cohort, n = 490, mean age 50.3 ± 0.2 years) and the Prospective Study of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS, replication cohort, n = 892, mean age 70.2 ± 0.15 years). Spirometry and three different measures of endothelial function were performed including both the invasive forearm technique (endothelium-dependent and endothelium-independent vasodilation [EDV and EIDV, respectively] and noninvasive flow mediated dilation [FMD]).

RESULTS

An age and sex adjusted association between lower EDV and lower FEV₁ was found in POEM and replicated in PIVUS. After merging the two cohorts, 1 standard deviation decrease in EDV was associated with 1.57% lower FEV₁ after additional adjustment for smoking status, body mass index, exercise level, and C-reactive protein (95% confidence intervals 0.63-2.51, p = 0.001). The association was slightly lower albeit still statistically significant after excluding participants without cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease and appeared stronger among previous/current smokers vs. non-smokers and in men vs. women (p for interaction = 0.2 and 0.02 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that even individuals with sub-clinical impairments of lung function in the community have concomitant endothelial dysfunction.

Multiplex proteomics for prediction of major cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Multiplex proteomics could improve understanding and risk prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in type 2 diabetes. This study assessed 80 cardiovascular and inflammatory proteins for biomarker discovery and prediction of MACE in type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We combined data from six prospective epidemiological studies of 30-77-year-old individuals with type 2 diabetes in whom 80 circulating proteins were measured by proximity extension assay. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used in a discovery/replication design to identify biomarkers for incident MACE. We used gradient-boosted machine learning and lasso regularised Cox regression in a random 75% training subsample to assess whether adding proteins to risk factors included in the Swedish National Diabetes Register risk model would improve the prediction of MACE in the separate 25% test subsample.

RESULTS

Of 1211 adults with type 2 diabetes (32% women), 211 experienced a MACE over a mean (±SD) of 6.4 ± 2.3 years. We replicated associations (<5% false discovery rate) between risk of MACE and eight proteins: matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-12, IL-27 subunit α (IL-27a), kidney injury molecule (KIM)-1, fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-23, protein S100-A12, TNF receptor (TNFR)-1, TNFR-2 and TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor (TRAIL-R)2. Addition of the 80-protein assay to established risk factors improved discrimination in the separate test sample from 0.686 (95% CI 0.682, 0.689) to 0.748 (95% CI 0.746, 0.751). A sparse model of 20 added proteins achieved a C statistic of 0.747 (95% CI 0.653, 0.842) in the test sample.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

We identified eight protein biomarkers, four of which are novel, for risk of MACE in community residents with type 2 diabetes, and found improved risk prediction by combining multiplex proteomics with an established risk model. Multiprotein arrays could be useful in identifying individuals with type 2 diabetes who are at highest risk of a cardiovascular event.

Glucose challenge metabolomics implicates medium-chain acylcarnitines in insulin resistance

Insulin resistance (IR) predisposes to type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease but its causes are incompletely understood. Metabolic challenges like the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) can reveal pathogenic mechanisms. We aimed to discover associations of IR with metabolite trajectories during OGTT. In 470 non-diabetic men (age 70.6 ± 0.6 years), plasma samples obtained at 0, 30 and 120 minutes during an OGTT were analyzed by untargeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry metabolomics. IR was assessed with the hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp method. We applied age-adjusted linear regression to identify metabolites whose concentration change was related to IR. Nine trajectories, including monounsaturated fatty acids, lysophosphatidylethanolamines and a bile acid, were significantly associated with IR, with the strongest associations observed for medium-chain acylcarnitines C10 and C12, and no associations with L-carnitine or C2-, C8-, C14- or C16-carnitine. Concentrations of C10- and C12-carnitine decreased during OGTT with a blunted decline in participants with worse insulin resistance. Associations persisted after adjustment for obesity, fasting insulin and fasting glucose. In mouse 3T3-L1 adipocytes exposed to different acylcarnitines, we observed blunted insulin-stimulated glucose uptake after treatment with C10- or C12-carnitine. In conclusion, our results identify medium-chain acylcarnitines as possible contributors to IR.

10-Year Associations Between Tumor Necrosis Factor Receptors 1 and 2 and Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Stable Coronary Heart Disease: A CLARICOR (Effect of Clarithromycin on Mortality and Morbidity in Patients With Ischemic Heart Disease) Trial Substudy

BACKGROUND

We aimed to assess the associations and predictive powers between the soluble receptors for tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α (TNFR1 and TNFR2) and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with stable coronary heart disease.

METHODS AND RESULTS

CLARICOR (Effect of Clarithromycin on Mortality and Morbidity in Patients With Ischemic Heart Disease) is a randomized clinical trial comparing clarithromycin with placebo in patients with stable coronary heart disease. The primary outcome was a composite of nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina pectoris, cerebrovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. Patients were followed up for 10 years; discovery sample, those assigned placebo (1204 events in n=1998); and replication sample, those assigned clarithromycin (1220 events in n=1979). We used Cox regression adjusted for C-reactive protein level, established cardiovascular risk factors, kidney function, and cardiovascular drugs. After adjustments, higher serum levels of TNFR1 and TNFR2 were associated with the composite outcome in the discovery sample (hazard ratio per SD increase, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.22; P=0.001 for TNFR1; hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.24; P<0.001 for TNFR2). The associations were similar in the replication sample. The associations with the composite outcome were mainly driven by acute myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality, and noncardiovascular mortality. The addition of TNFR1 and TNFR2 to established cardiovascular risk factors improved prediction only modestly (<1%).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased concentrations of circulating TNFR1 and TNFR2 were associated with increased risks of cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with stable coronary heart disease. Yet, the utility of measuring TNFR1 and TNFR2 to improve risk prediction in these patients appears limited.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00121550.