Cost-effectiveness of high-dose influenza vaccination in the Netherlands: Incorporating the impact on both respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations

OBJECTIVES

We assess the cost-effectiveness of switching from standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccination (SD-QIV) to high-dose vaccination (HD-QIV) for Dutch adults aged 60 years and older.

METHODS

A health-economic model was used to compare the scenario where HD-QIV was implemented compared to the current standard, SD-QIV. This model used a lifetime horizon and assessed the cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective. A recently published meta-analysis was used to incorporate the benefits of HD-QIV, including cardiorespiratory hospitalizations, in analyses considering RCT only or combining RCT and RWE estimates in a scenario analysis.

RESULTS

Implementing HD-QIV is cost effective at its list price, with an ICER of €5,400 per QALY gained. The main driver of these results is the prevention of cardiorespiratory hospitalizations. Other public health benefits are the prevention of GP consults and deaths. HD-QIV is highly likely to be cost-effective, reaching a 100% probability of being cost effective at the Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing HD-QIV for adults aged 60 and over within the existing influenza vaccination campaign is highly cost effective. HD-QIV may support alleviating potential capacity issues in Dutch hospitals in the winter respiratory season.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The value of artificial intelligence for the treatment of mechanically ventilated intensive care unit patients: An early health technology assessment

PURPOSE

The health and economic consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) systems for mechanically ventilated intensive care unit patients often remain unstudied. Early health technology assessments (HTA) can examine the potential impact of AI systems by using available data and simulations. Therefore, we developed a generic health-economic model suitable for early HTA of AI systems for mechanically ventilated patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Our generic health-economic model simulates mechanically ventilated patients from their hospitalisation until their death. The model simulates two scenarios, care as usual and care with the AI system, and compares these scenarios to estimate their cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

The generic health-economic model we developed is suitable for estimating the cost-effectiveness of various AI systems. By varying input parameters and assumptions, the model can examine the cost-effectiveness of AI systems across a wide range of different clinical settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the proposed generic health-economic model, investors and innovators can easily assess whether implementing a certain AI system is likely to be cost-effective before an exact clinical impact is determined. The results of the early HTA can aid investors and innovators in deployment of AI systems by supporting development decisions, informing value-based pricing, clinical trial design, and selection of target patient groups.

Can Cyprus Afford Luspatercept? A Budget Impact Analysis of the Reimbursement of Luspatercept for the Management of Thalassaemia in Cyprus

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to estimate the budget impact of luspatercept reimbursement as an adjuvant to the standard management of β-thalassaemia major in Cyprus, from a societal perspective, and assess the financial feasibility of its inclusion in the β-thalassaemia armamentarium.

METHODS

A 5-year horizon budget impact model was developed to determine the budget impact of reimbursing luspatercept for the management of β-thalassaemia major in Cyprus. Two treatment discontinuation scenarios were elaborated. In the first scenario, luspatercept is reimbursed complementary to best supportive care, and a dropout rate of 40% is assumed based on published real-world data, while for the second scenario a dropout rate of 25%, is assumed as per the clinical trial data. Input parameters were retrieved from the phase III clinical trial of luspatercept, literature, and expert opinion consensus. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted for both scenarios.

RESULTS

The addition of luspatercept to the standard management of β-thalassaemia major in Cyprus imparted an incremental budget impact ranging from €21,300,643 to €25,834,368, depending on the drop-out rate scenario assumed. Results were sensitive to the number of eligible patients and dose per patient.

CONCLUSION

The potential reimbursement of luspatercept will wield a substantial impact on Cyprus total pharmaceutical expenditure and it is therefore imperative to affix a reimbursement framework that will allow the payer to mitigate uncertainty stemming out of the scarce clinical data and the inherently complex therapeutic landscape of β-thalassemia management.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Inter-reviewer reliability of human literature reviewing and implications for the introduction of machine-assisted systematic reviews: a mixed-methods review

OBJECTIVES

Our main objective is to assess the inter-reviewer reliability (IRR) reported in published systematic literature reviews (SLRs). Our secondary objective is to determine the expected IRR by authors of SLRs for both human and machine-assisted reviews.

METHODS

We performed a review of SLRs of randomised controlled trials using the PubMed and Embase databases. Data were extracted on IRR by means of Cohen's kappa score of abstract/title screening, full-text screening and data extraction in combination with review team size, items screened and the quality of the review was assessed with the A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews 2. In addition, we performed a survey of authors of SLRs on their expectations of machine learning automation and human performed IRR in SLRs.

RESULTS

After removal of duplicates, 836 articles were screened for abstract, and 413 were screened full text. In total, 45 eligible articles were included. The average Cohen's kappa score reported was 0.82 (SD=0.11, n=12) for abstract screening, 0.77 (SD=0.18, n=14) for full-text screening, 0.86 (SD=0.07, n=15) for the whole screening process and 0.88 (SD=0.08, n=16) for data extraction. No association was observed between the IRR reported and review team size, items screened and quality of the SLR. The survey (n=37) showed overlapping expected Cohen's kappa values ranging between approximately 0.6-0.9 for either human or machine learning-assisted SLRs. No trend was observed between reviewer experience and expected IRR. Authors expect a higher-than-average IRR for machine learning-assisted SLR compared with human based SLR in both screening and data extraction.

CONCLUSION

Currently, it is not common to report on IRR in the scientific literature for either human and machine learning-assisted SLRs. This mixed-methods review gives first guidance on the human IRR benchmark, which could be used as a minimal threshold for IRR in machine learning-assisted SLRs.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42023386706.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost of Illness Analysis of Invasive Meningococcal Disease Caused by Neisseria Meningitidis Serogroup B in the Netherlands-a Holistic Approach

INTRODUCTION

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) caused by Neisseria meningitidis is a rapidly progressing, rare disease that often presents as meningitis or sepsis. It mostly affects infants and adolescents, with high fatality rates or long-term sequelae. In the Netherlands, serogroup B (MenB) is most prevalent. We aimed to estimate the economic burden of MenB-related IMD between 2015 and 2019, including direct and indirect medical costs from short- and long-term sequelae, from a societal perspective.

METHODS

IMD incidence was based on laboratory-based case numbers from the Netherlands Reference Laboratory for Bacterial Meningitis (Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, the Netherlands); there were 74 MenB cases on average per year in the study period 2015-2019. Case-fatality rate (3.8%) and percentage of patients discharged with sequelae (46%) were derived from literature. Direct costs included treatment costs of the acute phase, long-term sequelae, and public health response. Indirect costs were calculated using the human capital (HCA) and friction costs (FCA) approaches, in which productivity losses were estimated for patients and parents during the acute and sequelae phases. Costs were discounted by 4% yearly.

RESULTS

Estimated costs due to MenB IMD in an annual cohort were €3,094,199 with FCA and €9,480,764 with HCA. Direct costs amounted to €2,974,996, of which 75.2% were related to sequelae. Indirect costs related to sequelae were €52,532 with FCA and €5,220,398 with HCA.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis reflects the high economic burden of MenB-related IMD in the Netherlands. Sequelae costs represent a high proportion of the total costs. Societal costs were dependent on the applied approach (FCA or HCA).

Comprehensive childhood vaccination and its determinants: Insights from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS)

BACKGROUND

Immunization is the most effective intervention for reducing morbidity and mortality rates associated with vaccine-preventable diseases. Despite the Indonesian government's inclusion of several childhood vaccinations in the national immunization program (NIP), the number of unvaccinated or partially vaccinated children remains high. This observational study aimed to determine the completeness of childhood immunization and the factors influencing it in Indonesia.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the fifth wave of the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS). The sample (n = 16,236) consists of children residing in 13 provinces, representing over 80% of Indonesia's population. The difference between groups was tested using the chi-square test. Logistic regression was performed to identify the variables associated with the completeness of basic immunization. Immunization is categorized as complete when children have received all the mandatory vaccines recommended by the Ministry of Health. We examined and compared the results using complete case analysis, inverse probability weighting, and multiple imputations.

RESULTS

The highest percentages of complete vaccinations were polio, tuberculosis, and DPT. Children who live in Sumatera and Kalimantan were more likely to be fully immunized, with ORs of 0.6 (95%CI 0.48-0.74) and 0.54 (0.37-0.80), respectively. Children who live in urban areas, have mothers who received the tetanus vaccine during pregnancy, have mothers with a higher level of education and health insurance, have fathers aged 41-50, and live with a large number of family members were more likely to be fully immunized (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Socioeconomic determinants were strongly correlated with the completeness of childhood vaccination in Indonesia.

Vaccine hesitancy and equity: lessons learned from the past and how they affect the COVID-19 countermeasure in Indonesia

INTRODUCTION

Indonesia has made progress in increasing vaccine coverage, but equitable access remains challenging, especially in remote areas. Despite including vaccines in the National Immunization Program (NIP), coverage has not met WHO and UNICEF targets, with childhood immunization decreasing during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 vaccination has also experienced hesitancy, slowing efforts to end the pandemic.

SCOPE

This article addresses the issue of vaccine hesitancy and its impact on vaccination initiatives amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. This article utilizes the vaccine hesitancy framework to analyze previous outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases and their underlying causes, ultimately providing recommendations for addressing the current situation. The analysis considers the differences between the pre-pandemic circumstances and the present and considers the implementation of basic and advanced strategies.

KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION

Vaccine hesitancy is a significant challenge in the COVID-19 pandemic, and public health campaigns and community engagement efforts are needed to promote vaccine acceptance and uptake. Efforts to address vaccine hesitancy promote trust in healthcare systems and increase the likelihood of individuals seeking preventive health services. Vaccine hesitancy requires a comprehensive, culturally sensitive approach that considers local contexts and realities. Strategies should be tailored to specific cultural and societal contexts and monitored and evaluated.

Culturally adapted training for community volunteers to improve their knowledge, attitude and practice regarding non-communicable diseases in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

The burden of non-communicable diseases is becoming unmanageable by primary healthcare facilities in low- and middle-income countries. Community-based approaches are promising for supporting healthcare facilities. In Vietnam, community health volunteers are trained in providing health promotion and screening in a culturally adapted training. This study aims to assess the change in knowledge, attitude and practice regarding NCD prevention and management after a culturally adapted training, and the potential mechanisms leading to this change.

METHODS

The Knowledge Attitude and Practice survey was assessed before and after an initial training, and before and after a refresher training (n = 37). We used a focus group discussion with community health volunteers (n = 8) to map potential mechanisms of the training and applying learned knowledge in practice. Data were collected in the districts Le Chan and An Duong of Hai Phong, Vietnam, in November 2021 and May 2022.

RESULTS

We found that knowledge increased after training (mean = 5.54, 95%-confidence interval = 4.35 to 6.74), whereas attitude and practice did not improve. Next, knowledge decreased over time (m=-12.27;-14.40 to -10.11) and did not fully recover after a refresher training (m=-1.78;-3.22 to -0.35). As potential mechanisms for change, we identified the use of varying learning methods, enough breaks, efficient coordination of time located for theory and practice, handout materials, large group size and difficulty in applying a digital application for screening results.

CONCLUSION

Culturally adapted trainings can improve knowledge among community health volunteers which is important for the support of primary healthcare in low- and middle-income countries. Using a digital screening application can be a barrier for the improvement of knowledge, attitude and practice and we suggest using an intergenerational or age-friendly approach, with the supervision of primary healthcare professionals. Future research on behavioral change should include additional components such as self-efficacy and interrelationships between individuals.

Differences in evidentiary requirements for oncology drug effectiveness assessments among six European health technology assessment bodies - can alignment be improved?

OBJECTIVES

Evidentiary requirements for relative effectiveness assessment vary among European health technology assessment (HTA) bodies, affecting the time to HTA decision-making and potentially delaying time to patient access. Improved alignment may reduce this time; therefore, we aim to analyze the differences in evidentiary requirements for oncology drug assessments among European HTA bodies and provide recommendations toward an increased alignment.

METHODS

Interviews were conducted with stakeholders in drug assessments of Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, England and Wales, and Sweden about evidentiary requirements for several subdomains to identify differences and obtain recommendations for addressing differences. The interview results were analyzed on degrees of evidence acceptability per HTA body and alignment on evidentiary requirements among HTA bodies.

RESULTS

Subdomains demonstrating noteworthy differences concerned the acceptability of extrapolation to other populations, class effects, progression-free survival and (other) surrogate endpoints as outcomes, the absence of quality-of-life data, single-arm trials, cross-over trial designs, short trial duration, and the clinical relevance of effect size.

CONCLUSION

Alignment can be enhanced to reduce time to decision-making and to improve equity in patient access. Proposed recommendations to achieve this included joint early dialogues, intensified collaboration and exchange between countries, joint relative effectiveness assessments, and the use of access agreements.

Societal costs of sepsis in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a life-threatening syndrome characterized by acute loss of organ function due to infection. Sepsis survivors are at risk for long-term comorbidities, have a reduced Quality of Life (QoL), and are prone to increased long-term mortality. The societal impact of sepsis includes its disease burden and indirect economic costs. However, these societal costs of sepsis are not fully understood. This study assessed sepsis's disease-related and indirect economic costs in the Netherlands.

METHODS

Sepsis prevalence, incidence, sepsis-related mortality, hospitalizations, life expectancy, QoL population norms, QoL reduction after sepsis, and healthcare use post-sepsis were obtained from previous literature and Statistics Netherlands. We used these data to estimate annual Quality-adjusted Life Years (QALYs), productivity loss, and increase in healthcare use post-sepsis. A sensitivity analysis was performed to analyze the burden and indirect economic costs of sepsis under alternative assumptions, resulting in a baseline, low, and high estimated burden. The results are presented as a baseline (low-high burden) estimate.

RESULTS

The annual disease burden of sepsis is approximately 57,304 (24,398-96,244; low-high burden) QALYs. Of this, mortality accounts for 26,898 (23,166-31,577) QALYs, QoL decrease post-sepsis accounts for 30,406 (1232-64,667) QALYs. The indirect economic burden, attributed to lost productivity and increased healthcare expenditure, is estimated at €416.1 (147.1-610.7) million utilizing the friction cost approach and €3.1 (0.4-5.7) billion using the human capital method. Cumulatively, the combined disease and indirect economic burdens range from €3.8 billion (friction method) to €6.5 billion (human capital method) annually within the Netherlands.

CONCLUSIONS

Sepsis and its complications pose a substantial disease and indirect economic burden to the Netherlands, with an indirect economic burden due to production loss that is potentially larger than the burden due to coronary heart disease or stroke. Our results emphasize the need for future studies to prevent sepsis, saving downstream costs and decreasing the economic burden.

Mechanical ventilation as a major driver of COVID-19 hospitalization costs: a costing study in a German setting

BACKGROUND

While COVID-19 hospitalization costs are essential for policymakers to make informed health care resource decisions, little is known about these costs in western Europe. The aim of the current study is to analyze these costs for a German setting, track the development of these costs over time and analyze the daily costs.

METHODS

Administrative costing data was analyzed for 598 non-Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients and 510 ICU patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at the Frankfurt University hospital. Descriptive statistics of total per patient hospitalization costs were obtained and assessed over time. Propensity scores were estimated for length of stay (LOS) at the general ward and mechanical ventilation (MV) duration, using covariate balancing propensity score for continuous treatment. Costs for each additional day in the general ward and each additional day in the ICU with and without MV were estimated by regressing the total hospitalization costs on the LOS and the presence or absence of several treatments using generalized linear models, while controlling for patient characteristics, comorbidities, and complications.

RESULTS

Median total per patient hospitalization costs were €3,010 (Q1 - Q3: €2,224-€5,273), €5,887 (Q1 - Q3: €3,054-€10,879) and €21,536 (Q1 - Q3: €7,504-€43,480), respectively, for non-ICU patients, non-MV and MV ICU patients. Total per patient hospitalization costs for non-ICU patients showed a slight increase over time, while total per patient hospitalization costs for ICU patients decreased over time. Each additional day in the general ward for non-ICU COVID-19 patients costed €463.66 (SE: 15.89). Costs for each additional day in the general ward and ICU without and with mechanical ventilation for ICU patients were estimated at €414.20 (SE: 22.17), €927.45 (SE: 45.52) and €2,224.84 (SE: 70.24).

CONCLUSIONS

This is, to our knowledge, the first study examining the costs of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Germany. Estimated costs were overall in agreement with costs found in literature for non-COVID-19 patients, except for higher estimated costs for mechanical ventilation. These estimated costs can potentially improve the precision of COVID-19 cost effectiveness studies in Germany and will thereby allow health care policymakers to provide better informed health care resource decisions in the future.

Analysis of Health-Related Quality of Life and Incurred Costs Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Tuberculosis, and Tuberculosis/HIV Coinfected Outpatients in Indonesia

OBJECTIVES

A growing interest in healthcare costs and patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL) exists in the context of the increasing importance of health technology assessment in countries with high numbers of the HIV and tuberculosis (TB) patient populations, such as Indonesia. This study aimed to analyze the HRQoL and out-of-pocket (OOP) costs of HIV, TB, and TB/HIV coinfected participants in a city in Indonesia with a high prevalence of HIV and TB.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in the voluntary counseling and testing and lung clinics of Bekasi City Public Hospital (Indonesia) from January to March 2018. Patients' HRQoL was measured using the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire, whereas OOP costs were extracted from a semistructured questionnaire.

RESULTS

Of the 460 eligible participants, 82% resided in the city, 48% of them were married, and their median age was 34 years. Less than half were insured, and more than half had no source of income. The median values of health utilities for participants with HIV, TB, and TB/HIV were perceived as potentially high (1.0, 0.9, and 0.8, respectively). The TB/HIV coinfected outpatients had the highest OOP costs (US$94.5), with the largest contribution coming from direct medical OOP expenditures. Taking loans from family members was adopted as a financial strategy to overcome inadequate household incomes and high treatment costs.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that TB/HIV coinfection potentially lowers HRQoL and increases healthcare costs and the need for economic analysis to underpin cost-effective treatment in such patients.

The clinical effectiveness of one-dose vaccination with an HPV vaccine: A meta-analysis of 902,368 vaccinated women

BACKGROUND

The comprehensive effectiveness of the HPV vaccine has been widely acknowledged. However, challenges such as dosing adherence and limited budgets have led to delays in HPV vaccination implementation in many countries. A potential solution to these issues could lie in a one-dose vaccination with an HPV vaccine, as indicated by promising outcomes in multiple studies.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we examine the comparative effectiveness of the one-dose vaccination with an HPV vaccine against two- and three-dose regimens. Our investigation focuses on clinical efficacy, encompassing the prevention of HPV16, HPV18, and hrHPV infections, HSIL or ASC-H incidence, and CIN2/3 incidence.

RESULTS

Our analysis suggests that a single-dose HPV vaccine may offer effectiveness on par with two- or three-dose schedules. This conclusion is drawn from its capacity to confer immunogenic protection for at least 8 years of follow-up, coupled with its ability to mitigate infections and pre-cancerous occurrences.

CONCLUSION

While our findings underscore the potential of the one-dose vaccination with an HPV vaccine, further research and prolonged study durations are necessary to establish robust evidence supporting this recommendation. As such, continued investigation will be critical for informing vaccination strategies.

Personalizing the Use of a Intermittently Scanned Continuous Glucose Monitoring Device in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes: A Cost-Effectiveness Perspective in the Netherlands (FLARE-NL 9)

AIMS

Intermittently scanned continuous glucose monitoring (isCGM) is a method to monitor glucose concentrations without using a finger prick. Among persons with type 1 diabetes (T1D), isCGM results in improved glycemic control, less disease burden and improved health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, it is not clear for which subgroups of patients isCGM is cost-effective. We aimed to provide a real-world cost-effectiveness perspective.

METHODS

We used clinical data from a 1-year nationwide Dutch prospective observational study (N = 381) and linked these to insurance records. Health-related quality of life was assessed with the EQ-5D-3L questionnaire. Individuals were categorized into 4 subgroups: (1) frequent hypoglycemic events (58%), (2) HbA1c > 70 mmol/mol (8.5%) (19%), (3) occupation that requires avoiding finger pricks and/or hypoglycemia (5%), and (4) multiple indications (18%). Comparing costs and outcomes 12 months before and after isCGM initiation, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for the total cohort and each subgroup from a societal perspective (including healthcare and productivity loss costs) at the willingness to pay of €50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

From a societal perspective, isCGM was dominant in all subgroups (ie higher HRQoL gain with lower costs) except for subgroup 1. From a healthcare payer perspective, the probabilities of isCGM being cost-effective were 16%, 9%, 30%, 98%, and 65% for the total cohort and subgroup 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Most sensitivity analyses confirmed these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparing subgroups of isCGM users allows to prioritize them based on cost-effectiveness. The most cost-effective subgroup was occupation-related indications, followed by multiple indications, high HbA1c and the frequent hypoglycemic events subgroups. However, controlled studies with larger sample size are needed to draw definitive conclusions.

Economic Evaluations of Screening Programs for Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this review is to appraise and assimilate evidence from studies that have reported on the cost-effectiveness of screening programs for chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

The study protocol was registered on International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO). The final search was conducted on 18 January 2023 using 7 databases. Screening of articles, data extraction, and quality assessment was performed by 2 independent reviewers. The ISPOR-AMCP-NPC checklist was used to assess the credibility of the included studies.

RESULTS

From 4948 retrieved studies, a final total of 20 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis. Studies found that screening in diabetic populations was cost-effective (n = 8, 57%) or even cost-saving (n = 6, 43%). Four studies (67%) found that screening in hypertensive populations was also cost-effective. For the general population, findings were inconsistent across studies in which many found screening to be cost-effective (n = 11, 69%), some cost-saving (n = 2, 12%), and others not cost-effective (n = 3, 19%). The most influential parameters identified were prevalence of CKD and cost of screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for CKD in patients with diabetes or hypertension is recommended from a cost-effectiveness point of view. For the general population, despite some inconsistent findings, the majority of studies demonstrated that screening in this population is cost-effective, depending mainly on the prevalence and the costs of screening. Healthcare decision makers need to consider the prevalence, stratification strategies, and advocate for lower screening costs to reduce the burden on healthcare budgets and to make screening even more favorable from the health-economic perspective.

Cost-effectiveness of volume computed tomography in lung cancer screening: a cohort simulation based on Nelson study outcomes

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening (LCS) with volume-based low-dose computed tomography (CT) versus no screening for an asymptomatic high-risk population in the United Kingdom (UK), utilising the long-term insights provided by the NELSON study, the largest European randomized control trial investigating LCS.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a decision tree and a state-transition Markov model to simulate the identification, diagnosis, and treatments for a lung cancer high-risk population, from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Eligible participants underwent annual volume CT screening and were compared to a cohort without the option of screening. Screen-detected lung cancers, costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were predicted.

RESULTS

Annual volume CT screening of 1.3 million eligible participants resulted in 96,474 more lung cancer cases detected in early stage, and 73,825 fewer cases in late stage, leading to 53,732 premature lung cancer deaths averted and 421,647 QALYs gained, compared to no screening. The ICER was £5,455 per QALY. These estimates were robust in sensitivity analyses.

LIMITATIONS

Lack of long-term survival data for lung cancer patients; deficiency in rigorous micro-costing studies to establish detailed treatment costs inputs for lung cancer patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual LCS with volume-based low-dose CT for a high-risk asymptomatic population is cost-effective in the UK, at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY, representing an efficient use of NHS resources with substantially improved outcomes for lung cancer patients, as well as additional societal and economic benefits for society as a whole. These findings advocate evidence-based decisions for the potential implementation of a nationwide LCS in the UK.

A clinical and economic assessment of adjuvanted trivalent versus standard egg-derived quadrivalent influenza vaccines among older adults in the United States during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 influenza seasons

BACKGROUND

Clinical evidence supports use of enhanced influenza vaccines in older adults. Few economic outcome studies have compared adjuvanted trivalent inactivated (aIIV3) and standard egg-derived quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4e).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted leveraging deidentified US hospital data linked to claims data during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 influenza seasons. Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) was compared in adults aged ≥ 65 years receiving aIIV3 or IIV4e using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and Poisson regression. An economic assessment quantified potential real-world cost savings.

RESULTS

The study included 715,807 aIIV3 and 320,991 IIV4e recipients in the 2018-19 and 844,169 aIIV3 and 306,270 IIV4e recipients in the 2019-20 influenza seasons. aIIV3 was significantly more effective than IIV4e in preventing cardiorespiratory disease (2018-19 rVE = 6.2%; and 2019-20 rVE = 6.0%) and respiratory disease (2018-19 rVE = 8.9%; and 2019-20 rVE = 10.1%). During the 2018-19 influenza season cardiorespiratory hospitalization cost savings for the aIIV3 population were $392 M, and $221 M for the 2019-20 season. Respiratory hospitalization cost savings for the aIIV3 population were $145 M and $97 M, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that aIIV3 provides clinical and economic advantages versus IIV4e in the elderly.

Impaired health-related quality of life due to elevated risk of developing diabetes: A cross-sectional study in Indonesia

BACKGROUND

This study investigated the association between elevated risk of developing diabetes and impaired health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in the Indonesian population.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted on 1,336 Indonesians from the general population who had no previous diagnosis of diabetes. Utility score to represent HRQoL was measured using the EuroQol 5-dimension, while the risk for developing diabetes was determined using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) instrument. All participants underwent a blood glucose test after fasting for 8 hours. The association between FINDRISC score and HRQoL adjusted for covariates was analysed using multivariate Tobit regression models. Minimal clinically important differences were used to facilitate interpretation of minimal changes in utility score that could be observed.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range) of the overall FINDRISC score was 6 (7), while the mean (95% confidence intervals) of the EQ-5D utility score was 0.93 (0.93-0.94). Once adjusted for clinical parameters and socio-demographic characteristics, participants with a higher FINDRISC score showed a significantly lower HRQoL. No significant association was detected between fasting blood glucose level categories and HRQoL. A difference of 4-5 points in the FINDRISC score was considered to reflect meaningful change in HRQoL in clinical practice.

CONCLUSION

An elevated risk of developing diabetes is associated with a lower HRQoL. Therefore, attention should be paid not only to patients who have already been diagnosed with diabetes, but also to members of the general population who demonstrate an elevated risk of developing diabetes. This approach will assist in preventing the onset of diabetes and any further deterioration of HRQoL in this segment of the Indonesian population.

Cost-effectiveness of ravulizumab compared with eculizumab for the treatment of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ravulizumab compared with eculizumab for the treatment of adult patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) in the Netherlands.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted based on a Markov cohort model simulating the course of patients with PNH with clinical symptom(s) indicative of high disease activity, or who are clinically stable after having been treated with eculizumab for at least the past six months. Costs, quality of life, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were estimated over a lifetime horizon from a Dutch societal perspective. Several additional analyses were performed, including a one-way sensitivity analysis, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and scenario analysis.

RESULTS

When compared with eculizumab, ravulizumab saves €266,833 and 1.57 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) are gained, resulting in a dominant ICER. Drug costs account for the majority of the total costs in both intervention groups. Cost savings were driven by the difference in total treatment costs of ravulizumab compared with eculizumab caused by the reduced administration frequency, accounting for 98% of the total cost savings. The QALY gain with ravulizumab is largely attributable to the improved quality of life associated with less frequent infusions and BTH events. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000/QALY, there is a 76.6% probability that ravulizumab would be cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost reduction and QALY gain associated with the lower rates of BTH and less frequent administration make ravulizumab a cost-saving and clinically beneficial substitute for eculizumab for adults with PNH in the Netherlands.

Cost-effectiveness of finerenone in chronic kidney disease associated with type 2 diabetes in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND

In the Netherlands, more than one million patients have type 2 diabetes (T2D), and approximately 36% of these patients have chronic kidney disease (CKD). Yearly medical costs related to T2D and CKD account for approximately €1.3 billion and €805 million, respectively. The FIDELIO-DKD trial showed that the addition of finerenone to the standard of care (SoC) lowers the risk of CKD progression and cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with CKD stages 2-4 associated with T2D. This study investigates the cost-effectiveness of adding finerenone to the SoC of patients with advanced CKD and T2D compared to SoC monotherapy.

METHODS

The validated FINE-CKD model is a Markov cohort model which simulates the disease pathway of patients over a lifetime time horizon. The model was adapted to reflect the Dutch societal perspective. The model estimated the incremental costs, utilities, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to assess the effect of parameter uncertainty on model robustness.

RESULTS

When used in conjunction with SoC, finerenone extended time free of CV events and renal replacement therapy by respectively 0.30 and 0.31 life years compared to SoC alone, resulting in an extension of 0.20 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The reduction in renal and CV events led to a €6136 decrease in total lifetime costs per patient compared to SoC alone, establishing finerenone as a dominant treatment option. Finerenone in addition to SoC had a 83% probability of being dominant and a 93% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000.

CONCLUSION

By reducing the risk of CKD progression and CV events, finerenone saves costs to society while gaining QALYs in patients with T2D and advanced CKD in the Netherlands.

The knowledge mapping of HIV/AIDS in Indonesians living on six major islands using the Indonesian version of the HIV-KQ-18 instrument

Indonesia's total number of HIV/AIDS cases is still high. Inadequate knowledge about the risk of HIV infection will influence HIV prevention and therapy. This study aimed to map the level of HIV-related knowledge among Indonesians living on six major islands in Indonesia and investigate the relationship between socio-demographic characteristics and HIV/AIDS knowledge. This cross-sectional study used the Bahasa Indonesia version of the HIV Knowledge Questionnaire-18 items (HIV-KQ-18) Instrument. Data collection was done online through the Google form application. A total of 5,364 participants were recruited. The participants from Java had the highest degree of HIV/AIDS knowledge, which was 12.5% higher than participants from Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Papua, and Maluku. Linear regression showed that region, educational level, monthly expenditure, occupation, background in health sciences, and workshop attendance were significantly correlated with HIV knowledge. Participants typically understand that "HIV/AIDS transmission" only happens when sex partners are changed. Additionally, the government still needs improvement in HIV/AIDS education, particularly in the HIV incubation period, HIV transmission from pregnant women to the fetus, and condom use as one method of protection. There are disparities in HIV/AIDS knowledge levels among the major islands of Indonesia. Based on these findings, the government's health promotion program to increase public awareness of HIV/AIDS must be implemented vigorously. Additionally, in line with our research findings, it is essential to broaden the scope of HIV/AIDS education and promotion materials.

Cost-effectiveness of non-communicable disease prevention in Southeast Asia: a scoping review

Background

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) on prevention of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are necessary to guide decision makers to allocate scarce healthcare resource, especially in Southeast Asia (SEA), where many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are in the process of scaling-up preventive interventions. This scoping review aims to summarize the cost-effectiveness evidence of primary, secondary, or tertiary prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) as well as of major NCDs risk factors in SEA.

Methods

A scoping review was done following the PRISMA checklist for Scoping Reviews. Systematic searches were performed on Cochrane Library, EconLit, PubMed, and Web of Science to identify CEAs which focused on primary, secondary, or tertiary prevention of T2DM, CVDs and major NCDs risk factors with the focus on primary health-care facilities and clinics and conducted in SEA LMICs. Risks of bias of included studies was assessed using the Consensus of Health Economic Criteria list.

Results

This study included 42 CEAs. The interventions ranged from screening and targeting specific groups for T2DM and CVDs to smoking cessation programs, discouragement of smoking or unhealthy diet through taxation, or health education. Most CEAs were model-based and compared to a do-nothing scenario. In CEAs related to tobacco use prevention, the cost-effectiveness of tax increase was confirmed in all related CEAs. Unhealthy diet prevention, mass media campaigns, salt-reduction strategies, and tax increases on sugar-sweetened beverages were shown to be cost-effective in several settings. CVD prevention and treatment of hypertension were found to be the most cost-effective interventions. Regarding T2DM prevention, all assessed screening strategies were cost-effective or even cost-saving, and a few strategies to prevent T2DM complications were found to be cost-effective in certain settings.

Conclusion

This review shows that the cost-effectiveness of preventive strategies in SEA against T2DM, CVDs, and their major NCDs risk factors are heterogenous in both methodology as well as outcome. This review combined with the WHO "best buys" could guide LMICs in SEA in possible interventions to be considered for implementation and upscaling. However, updated and country-specific information is needed to further assess the prioritization of the different healthcare interventions.

Systematic review registration

https://osf.io, identifier: 10.17605/OSF.IO/NPEHT.

Multidisciplinary tuberculosis care: leveraging the role of hospital pharmacists

INTRODUCTION

Optimal pharmacological treatment of tuberculosis (TB) requires a multidisciplinary team, yet the hospital pharmacist's role is unclear. We aimed to analyse hospital pharmacist-provided clinical pharmacy services (CPS) implementation in TB care.

METHOD

A nationwide survey-based online cross-sectional study was conducted on hospital pharmacists in Indonesia from 1 November 2022 to 22 November 2022. Outcomes were the extent of pharmacists' involvement in multidisciplinary TB care, TB-related CPS provided and views on TB-related CPS. The probability of pharmacists' involvement in multidisciplinary TB teams was assessed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

In total, 439 pharmacists (mean age 31.2±6.22 years, 78% female) completed the survey. Thirty-six per cent were part of multidisciplinary TB care, and 23% had TB-related tasks. Adherence monitoring (90%) and drug use evaluation (86%) were the most conducted TB-related CPS. Pharmacists' views on TB-related CPS implementation were generally positive, except for financial incentives. Work experience (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.09 to 3.61), ever received TB-related training (OR 3.51, 95% CI 2.03 to 6.14) and specific assignments to provide TB-related CPS (OR 8.42, 95% CI 4.99 to 14.59) significantly increased pharmacist involvement in multidisciplinary TB care.

CONCLUSION

Around one-third of hospital pharmacists are part of multidisciplinary TB care, with medication adherence and drug use monitoring as primary tasks. Pharmacists' experience, training, assignment to provide TB-related CPS and financial incentives are key elements for further implementation in multidisciplinary TB care. Pharmacists should proactively support current TB care and conduct operational research, sharing data with healthcare peers and fostering a collaborative multidisciplinary TB care team.

Model and Empirical Data-Based Cost-Utility Studies of Continuous Glucose Monitoring in Individuals with Type 1 Diabetes: A Protocol of a Systematic Review on Methodology and Quality

INTRODUCTION

This review aims to critically appraise differences in methodology and quality of model-based and empirical-data-based cost-utility studies to address key limitations, opportunities, and challenges to inform future cost-utility analyses of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) in type 1 diabetes. This protocol is registered at PROSPERO (CRD42023391284).

METHODS

The review will be conducted in accordance with the PRISMA guideline for systematic reviews. Searches will be conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Econlit from 2000 to January 2023. Model and empirical data-based studies evaluating the cost-utility of any CGM system in type 1 diabetes will be considered for inclusion. Studies that only report on cost per life year or any other clinical outcome, or reporting only costs or only clinical outcomes studies in type 2 diabetes populations, and studies on bi-hormonal closed loops and do-it-yourself hybrid closed loop devices will be excluded. Two reviewers will independently screen each study for inclusion. Data on the intervention, population, model settings (such as perspective, time horizon), model type and structure, clinical outcomes used to populate the model, validation, and uncertainty will be extracted and qualitatively synthesised. Quality will be assessed using the Philips et al. 2006 (model-based studies) or Consensus Health Economic Criteria (empirical data-based studies) checklists. Model validation will be assessed using the AdViSHE checklist.

DISCUSSION

Now that CGM is being used more broadly in practice, critical appraisal of existing cost-utility methodology and quality is important to inform future cost-utility analyses of CGM in type 1 diabetes in various settings.

Reply to Standaert, B. Comment on "Postma et al. Predicted Public Health and Economic Impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination with Variable Duration of Protection for Adults ≥60 Years in Belgium"

We have read the commentary from Baudouin Standaert [...].

Comparison of different scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality for patients with Fournier gangrene

PURPOSE

To compare different scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with Fournier gangrene (FG).

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was performed to find all scoring systems that have been proposed previously as a predictor for in-hospital mortality in patients with FG. Data of all patients with FG who were hospitalized in one of Indonesia's largest tertiary referral hospitals between 2012 and 2022 were used. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the scoring systems.

RESULTS

Ten scoring systems were found, i.e., Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index (FGSI), Uludag FGSI, simplified FGSI, NUMUNE Fournier score (NFS), Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis, age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick SOFA, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II, and surgery APGAR score (SAS). Of 164 FG patients included in the analyses, 26.4% died during hospitalization. All scoring systems except SAS could predict in-hospital mortality of patients with FG. Three scoring systems had areas under the ROC curve (AUROC) higher than 0.8, i.e., FGSI (AUROC 0.905, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.860-0.950), SOFA (AUROC 0.830, 95% CI 0.815-0.921), and NFS (AUROC 0.823, 95% CI 0.739-0.906). Both FGSI and SOFA had sensitivity and NPV of 1.0, whereas NFS had a sensitivity of 0.74 and an NPV of 0.91.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that FGSI and SOFA are the most reliable scoring systems to predict in-hospital mortality in FG, as indicated by the high AUROC and perfect sensitivity and NPV.

Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of Digital Inhaler Adherence Technologies in Difficult-to-Treat Asthma

BACKGROUND

Digital inhalers can monitor inhaler usage, support difficult-to-treat asthma management, and inform step-up treatment decisions yet their economic value is unknown, hampering wide-scale implementation.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of digital inhaler-based medication adherence management in difficult-to-treat asthma.

METHODS

A model-based cost-utility analysis was performed. The Markov model structure was determined by biological and clinical understanding of asthma and was further informed by guideline-based assessment of model development. Internal and external validation was performed using the Assessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic (AdViSHE) tool. The INCA (Inhaler Compliance Assessment) Sun randomized clinical trial data were incorporated into the model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of digital inhalers. Several long-term clinical case scenarios were assessed (reduced number of exacerbations, increased asthma control, introduction of biosimilars [25% price-cut on biologics]).

RESULTS

The long-term modelled cost-effectiveness based on a societal perspective indicated 1-year per-patient costs for digital inhalers and usual care (ie, regular inhalers) of €7,546 ($7,946) and €10,752 ($11,322), respectively, reflecting cost savings of €3,207 ($3,377) for digital inhalers. Using a 10-year intervention duration and time horizon resulted in cost savings of €26,309 ($27,703) for digital inhalers. In the first year, add-on biologic therapies accounted for 69% of the total costs in the usual care group and for 49% in the digital inhaler group. Scenario analyses indicated consistent cost savings ranging from €2,287 ($2,408) (introduction biosimilars) to €4,581 ($4,824) (increased control, decreased exacerbations).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with difficult-to-treat asthma, digital inhaler-based interventions can be cost-saving in the long-term by optimizing medication adherence and inhaler technique and reducing add-on biologic prescriptions.

The Use of eHealth for Pharmacotherapy Management With Patients With Respiratory Disease, Cardiovascular Disease, or Diabetes: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

eHealth is increasingly considered an important tool for supporting pharmacotherapy management.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess the (1) use of eHealth in pharmacotherapy management with patients with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, or cardiovascular disease (CVD); (2) effectiveness of these interventions on pharmacotherapy management and clinical outcomes; and (3) key factors contributing to the success of eHealth interventions for pharmacotherapy management.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping review) statement. Databases searched included Embase, MEDLINE (PubMed), and Cochrane Library. Screening was conducted by 2 independent researchers. Eligible articles were randomized controlled trials and cohort studies assessing the effect of an eHealth intervention for pharmacotherapy management compared with usual care on pharmacotherapy management or clinical outcomes in patients with asthma or COPD, CVD, or diabetes. The interventions were categorized by the type of device, pharmacotherapy management, mode of delivery, features, and domains described in the conceptual model for eHealth by Shaw at al (Health in our Hands, Interacting for Health, Data Enabling Health). The effectiveness on pharmacotherapy management outcomes and patient- and clinician-reported clinical outcomes was analyzed per type of intervention categorized by number of domains and features to identify trends.

RESULTS

Of 63 studies, 16 (25%), 31 (49%), 13 (21%), and 3 (5%) included patients with asthma or COPD, CVD, diabetes, or CVD and diabetes, respectively. Most (38/63, 60%) interventions targeted improving medication adherence, often combined for treatment plan optimization. Of the 16 asthma or COPD interventions, 6 aimed to improve inhaled medication use. The majority (48/63, 76%) of the studies provided an option for patient feedback. Most (20/63, 32%) eHealth interventions combined all 3 domains by Shaw et al, while 25% (16/63) combined Interacting for Health with Data Enabling Health. Two-thirds (42/63, 67%) of the studies showed a positive overall effect. Respectively, 48% (23/48), 57% (28/49), and 39% (12/31) reported a positive effect on pharmacotherapy management and clinician- and patient-reported clinical outcomes. Pharmacotherapy management and patient-reported clinical outcomes, but not clinician-reported clinical outcomes, were more often positive in interventions with ≥3 features. There was a trend toward more studies reporting a positive effect on all 3 outcomes with more domains by Shaw et al. Of the studies with interventions providing patient feedback, more showed a positive clinical outcome, compared with studies with interventions without feedback. This effect was not seen for pharmacotherapy management outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a wide variety of eHealth interventions combining various domains and features to target pharmacotherapy management in asthma or COPD, CVD, and diabetes. Results suggest feedback is key for a positive effect on clinician-reported clinical outcomes. eHealth interventions become more impactful when combining domains.

Budget and health impact of switching eligible patients with atrial fibrillation to lower- dose dabigatran

Objectives: To assess the comparative budget and health impact of lower-dose dabigatran versus reduced doses of apixaban and rivaroxaban in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients eligible for a lower-/reduced-dose due to individual patient characteristics in the Netherlands. Methods: A budget impact model was developed in accordance with ISPOR guidelines. A 3-year-time horizon was considered, and analyses were conducted from a Dutch healthcare payer's perspective. The model applies published data to local AF-epidemiology, allowing calculations to estimate clinical events (strokes and haemorrhages) and costs. The analyses were based on real-world outcomes from patients with AF receiving a first direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) prescription for low-dose dabigatran (110 mg) and a reduced dose of apixaban (2.5 mg) or rivaroxaban (15 mg). Two situations of switching treatments from one to another DOAC were modelled: switching from apixaban to dabigatran and from rivaroxaban to dabigatran. Base case results were given as savings per 100 patient-year, per total Dutch population, and events avoided. A univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the uncertainty around epidemiological and event costs input data. Scenario analyses were performed to estimate the effect of different market shares and potential price reductions due to future patent expiry for the total real-world population from the Netherlands. Results: The 3-years outcomes of switching patients eligible for a lower-/reduced-dose due to individual patient characteristics from apixaban or rivaroxaban to dabigatran resulted in cost savings estimated at €157 or €72 thousand per 100 patient-years, respectively, or €146 million per total Dutch population. Looking into the clinical events, dabigatran reflected the lowest number of mortalities, ischemic strokes, major bleeding, non-major bleeding, and haemorrhagic stroke compared to apixaban and rivaroxaban. The sensitivity analysis consistently reflected cost savings, with the ischeamic stroke events having the biggest impact. Accounting for the Dutch situation, both scenarios showed total savings ranging from €45 to €229 million over 3 years. Conclusions: Switching eligible AF-patients from reduced-dose apixaban or rivaroxaban to lower-dose dabigatran has the potential to reduce healthcare payer's budget expenditures and provide health gains. Cost savings can potentially be further enhanced by market share adjustments and further price reductions.

Hepatitis B and C in Europe: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In 2016, the World Health Assembly adopted the resolution to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. This study aims to provide an overview of the burdens of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Europe and their changes from 2010 to 2019 using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used GBD 2019 estimates of the burden associated with HBV-related and HCV-related diseases: acute hepatitis, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, and liver cancer. We report total numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 for mortality, prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2010 to 2019. For each HBV-related and HCV-related disease and each measure, we analysed temporal changes and percentage changes for the 2010-19 period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, across all age groups, there were an estimated 2·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·66 to 2·54) incident cases of acute hepatitis B and 0·49 million (0·42 to 0·57) of hepatitis C in Europe. There were an estimated 8·24 million (7·56 to 8·88) prevalent cases of HBV-related cirrhosis and 11·87 million (9·77 to 14·41) of HCV-related cirrhosis, with 24·92 thousand (19·86 to 31·03) deaths due to HBV-related cirrhosis and 36·89 thousand (29·94 to 45·56) deaths due to HCV-related cirrhosis. Deaths were estimated at 9·00 thousand (6·88 to 11·62) due to HBV-related liver cancer and 23·07 thousand (18·95 to 27·31) due to HCV-related liver cancer. Between 2010 and 2019, the age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis B decreased (-22·14% [95% UI -35·44 to -5·98]) as did its age-standardised mortality rate (-33·27% [-43·03 to -25·49]); the age-standardised prevalence rate (-20·60% [-22·09 to -19·10]) and mortality rate (-33·19% [-37·82 to -28·13]) of HBV-related cirrhosis also decreased in this time period. The age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis C decreased by 3·24% (1·17 to 5·02) and its age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 35·73% (23·48 to 47·75) between 2010 and 2019; the age-standardised prevalence rate (-6·37% [-8·11 to -4·32]), incidence rate (-5·87% [-11·24 to -1·01]), and mortality rate (-11·11% [-16·54 to -5·53]) of HCV-related cirrhosis also decreased. No significant changes were observed in age-standardised rates of HBV-related and HCV-related liver cancer, although we observed a significant increase in numbers of cases of HCV-related liver cancer across all ages between 2010 and 2019 (16·41% [2·81 to 30·91] increase in prevalent cases). Substantial reductions in DALYs since 2010 were estimated for acute hepatitis B (-27·82% [-36·92 to -20·24]), acute hepatitis C (-27·07% [-15·97 to -39·34]), and HBV-related cirrhosis (-30·70% [-35·75 to -25·03]). A moderate reduction in DALYs was estimated for HCV-related cirrhosis (-6·19% [-0·19 to -12·57]). Only HCV-related liver cancer showed a significant increase in DALYs (10·37% [4·81-16·63]). Changes in age-standardised DALY rates closely resembled those observed for overall DALY counts, except for HCV-liver related cancer (-2·84% [-7·75 to 2·63]).

INTERPRETATION

Although decreases in some HBV-related and HCV-related diseases were estimated between 2010 and 2019, HBV-related and HCV-related diseases are still associated with a high burden, highlighting the need for more intensive and coordinated interventions within European countries to reach the goal of elimination by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health-economic evaluation of meniscus tear treatments: a systematic review

PURPOSE

To evaluate the overall evidence of published health-economic evaluation studies on meniscus tear treatment.

METHODS

Our systematic review focuses on health-economic evaluation studies of meniscus tear treatment interventions found in PubMed and Embase databases. A qualitative, descriptive approach was used to analyze the studies' results and systematically report them following PRISMA guidelines. The health-economic evaluation method for each included study was categorized following one of the four approaches: partial economic evaluation (PEE), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), cost-benefit analysis (CBA), or cost-utility analysis (CUA). The quality of each included study was assessed using the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria (CHEC) list. Comparisons of input variables and outcomes were made, if applicable.

RESULTS

Sixteen studies were included; of these, six studies performed PEE, seven studies CUA, two studies CEA, and one study combined CBA, CUA, and CEA. The following economic comparisons were analyzed and showed the respective comparative outcomes: (1) meniscus repair was more cost-effective than arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (meniscectomy) for reparable meniscus tear; (2) non-operative treatment or physical therapy was less costly than meniscectomy for degenerative meniscus tear; (3) physical therapy with delayed meniscectomy was more cost-effective than early meniscectomy for meniscus tear with knee osteoarthritis; (4) meniscectomy without physical therapy was less costly than meniscectomy with physical therapy; (5) meniscectomy was more cost-effective than either meniscus allograft transplantation or meniscus scaffold procedure; (6) the conventional arthroscopic instrument cost was lower than laser-assisted arthroscopy in meniscectomy procedures.

CONCLUSION

Results from this review suggest that meniscus repair is the most cost-effective intervention for reparable meniscus tears. Physical therapy followed by delayed meniscectomy is the most cost-effective intervention for degenerative meniscus tears. Meniscus scaffold should be avoided, especially when implemented on a large scale.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Systematic review of level IV studies.

Early Detection of Breast Cancer in Indonesia: Barriers Identified in a Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND

The lack of early detection in breast cancer management has been identified as the primary factor contributing to the high mortality rate. The introduction of BPJS Kesehatan, Indonesia's national health insurance, was intended to ensure the provision of adequate health services for breast cancer patients. This study aimed to investigate the current state of health services in Indonesia concerning the early detection of breast cancer, following the implementation of BPJS Kesehatan introduction.

METHODS

The study was conducted in 2017 in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Subjects were recruited using a purposive sampling technique with maximum variation. The sample comprised breast cancer patients, health care professionals (HCPs), and healthy women from the general population with no history of breast cancer. The subjects' experiences and knowledge of health services regarding the early detection of breast cancer were investigated through in-depth interviews. Thematic analysis was used to synthesize the results from interviews with 25 participants.

RESULT

This study identified several issues that hinder the timely detection of breast cancer. The lack of both screening and diagnostic procedures emerged as a prominent obstacle in breast cancer management. The study identified the following barriers: (1) limited community knowledge about early detection; (2). lack of urgency among patients to seek medical treatment; (3) limited access to health facilities; and (4) inconsistent adherence among health care professionals to guidelines for both screening and diagnostic procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed multiple factors contributing to the delay in breast cancer detection in Indonesia, leading to suboptimal management of the disease. It is crucial for the government to prioritize the improvement of enabling factors across all levels of care for early detection. These factors include initiatives to increase public awareness, improve access to health services, strengthen the referral system, and enhance health facilities.

Responsiveness of the Indonesian Versions of the Anterior Cruciate Ligament-Return to Sport After Injury Score, the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Form, and the Lysholm Score in Patients With ACL Injury

Background

The Indonesian versions of the Anterior Cruciate Ligament-Return to Sport after Injury (ACL-RSI), International Knee Documentation Committee subjective knee form (IKDC), and the Lysholm scores are considered valid and reliable for Indonesian-speaking patients with anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury.

Purpose/Hypothesis

The purpose of this study was to determine the responsiveness of the ACL-RSI, IKDC, and Lysholm scores in an Indonesian-speaking population with ACL injury. It was hypothesized that they would have good responsiveness.

Study Design

Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2.

Methods

Between March 1, 2021, and February 28, 2022, patients with an ACL injury at a single hospital in Indonesia were asked to complete the ACL-RSI, IKDC, and Lysholm scores before either reconstruction surgery or nonoperative treatment. At 6 months after treatment, the patients completed all 3 scores a second time, plus a global rating of change question. The distribution-based and the anchor-based methods were used to study responsiveness. For each scale, the standardized response mean, minimal clinically important difference (MCID), and minimal detectable change (MDC; at the group [MDCgr] and individual [MDCind] levels) for each scale were determined.

Results

Of 80 eligible patients, 75 (93.8%) completed the study. The standardized response means for the ACL-RSI, IKDC, and Lysholm scores were 1.59, 1.72, and 1.51, respectively, indicating good responsiveness. The MCIDs for the ACL-RSI, IKDC, and Lysholm scores were 6.8, 7.8, and 4.8, respectively; all MCIDs were larger than that of the MDCgr (1.1, 0.7, and 0.6, respectively). At the individual level, the MCID for the IKDC was larger than the MDCind (7.8 vs 5.8). However, the MCIDs for ACL-RSI and Lysholm scores were smaller than those of the MDCind (6.8 vs 10.9 and 4.8 vs 5.1, respectively).

Conclusion

The Indonesian ACL-RSI, IKDC, and Lysholm scores indicated good responsiveness and can be used in the follow-up of patients after ACL injury, especially at the group level. In individual patients, IKDC was found to be more efficient than the ACL-RSI or Lysholm scores for detecting clinically important changes over time after ACL treatment.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Economic analysis of open versus laparoscopic versus robot-assisted versus transanal total mesorectal excision in rectal cancer patients: A systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Minimally invasive total mesorectal excision is increasingly being used as an alternative to open surgery in the treatment of patients with rectal cancer. This systematic review aimed to compare the total, operative and hospitalization costs of open, laparoscopic, robot-assisted and transanal total mesorectal excision.

METHODS

This systematic review was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement (PRISMA) (S1 File) A literature review was conducted (end-of-search date: January 1, 2023) and quality assessment performed using the Consensus Health Economic Criteria.

RESULTS

12 studies were included, reporting on 2542 patients (226 open, 1192 laparoscopic, 998 robot-assisted and 126 transanal total mesorectal excision). Total costs of minimally invasive total mesorectal excision were higher compared to the open technique in the majority of included studies. For robot-assisted total mesorectal excision, higher operative costs and lower hospitalization costs were reported compared to the open and laparoscopic technique. A meta-analysis could not be performed due to low study quality and a high level of heterogeneity. Heterogeneity was caused by differences in the learning curve and statistical methods used.

CONCLUSION

Literature regarding costs of total mesorectal excision techniques is limited in quality and number. Available evidence suggests minimally invasive techniques may be more expensive compared to open total mesorectal excision. High-quality economical evaluations, accounting for the learning curve, are needed to properly assess costs of the different techniques.

Cost-effectiveness model of trastuzumab deruxtecan as second-line treatment in HER2-positive unresectable and/or metastatic breast cancer in Finland

OBJECTIVES

Trastuzumab deruxtecan (T-DXd) was recently recommended by the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use as a treatment for adult patients with unresectable or metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer, who had received a prior anti-HER2-based regimen. In our study, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of T-DXd compared with ado-trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) for this indication in Finland.

METHODS

A three-state partitioned survival analysis model was developed with a payer's perspective. Time to event data from the DESTINY-Breast03 (DB-03) trial were extrapolated over a lifetime horizon either directly-for progression-free survival and time to treatment discontinuation-or using an alternative approach utilizing long-term T-DM1 survival data and DB-03 data-for overall survival. Discount rates of 3% were applied for costs and effects. Inputs were sourced from the Medicinal Products Database from Kela, Helsinki University Hospital service price list, Finnish Medicines Agency assessments, clinical experts, and DB-03. Sensitivity analyses were performed to characterize and demonstrate parameter uncertainties in the model.

RESULTS

Total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and life years (LYs) gained for T-DXd compared with T-DM1 were 1.93 and 2.56, respectively. Incremental costs for T-DXd compared with T-DM1 were €106,800, resulting in an ICER of €55,360 per QALY gained and an ICER of €41,775 per LY gained. One-way sensitivity analysis showed the hazard ratio of T-DXd vs T-DM1 for OS was the most influential parameter. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed similar results to the base case.

CONCLUSIONS

T-DXd is cost-effective based on surrogate WTP thresholds of €72,000 and €139,000 per QALY.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Implementing a Managed Entry Agreement Framework in Cyprus

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to explore the current practice in Cyprus regarding the introduction and reimbursement of innovative pharmaceuticals through Managed Entry Agreements (MEA), assess its operational context, and suggest approaches toward spanning the knowledge gap consequential to these efforts, especially the barriers of a small country context.

AREAS COVERED

The recent introduction of a National Health System (NHS), brought about fundamental reforms in Cyprus' Healthcare sector. Among such reforms, of particular interest, has been the introduction of a Managed Entry Agreements (MEA) mechanism. The first preliminary results indicate that despite being a small and unattractive market, Cyprus can apply a substantial MEA program. Concomitantly, it annotates the need to design an operational framework which should include, the definition of important technical parameters, clear demarcation of the scope, cooperation principles ensuring the effective operation of scientific committees, and clear delineation of what 'value' is. Moreover, in the context of the unified healthcare market, budget transfers should be considered, which could alleviate the inordinate budget impact of new products, which nevertheless will cut down on hospital expenditures. Narrative synthesis and health policy analysis-related resources were used.

EXPERT OPINION

The implementation of MEA in Cyprus provides an ideal testing ground for innovative reimbursement approaches. This will streamline the country's efforts toward reimbursement of innovation, while concomitantly add to the collective MEA experience.

Non-restrictive open vial policy combined with the home visit vaccinations for improving BCG coverage in a high-incidence outreach region: A model-based cost-effectiveness analysis for Indonesia

Background

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination is recommended at birth or in the first week of life to achieve the most beneficial effects in protecting against the most severe type of tuberculosis (TB) disease in children. However, delayed vaccination is commonly reported, especially in outreach or rural areas. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of combining non-restrictive open vial and home visit vaccination strategies in order to increase timely BCG vaccination in a high-incidence outreach setting.

Methods

We applied a simplified Markov model for the Papua setting, which resembled a high-incidence outreach setting in Indonesia, to assess the cost-effectiveness of these strategies from a health care and a societal perspective. A moderate increase (75% wastage rate and 25% home vaccination) and a large increase (95% wastage rate and 75% home vaccination) scenario were assessed in the analysis. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) based on the incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained by comparing the two strategies to the base case scenario (35% wastage rate and no home vaccination).

Results

The costs per vaccinated child were US$10.25 in the base case scenario, increasing slightly in the moderate (US$10.54) and large increase scenarios (US$12.38). The moderate increase scenario was predicted to prevent 5783 TB-related deaths and 790 TB cases while the large increase scenario predicted the prevention of 9865 TB-related deaths and 1348 TB cases for the entire lifespan of our cohort. From a health care perspective, the ICERs were predicted to be US$288/QALY and US$487/QALY, respectively, for the moderate and large increase scenarios. Using Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) per person as a threshold, both strategies were considered to be cost-effective.

Conclusions

We found that the allocation of resources for timely BCG vaccination based on combining home vaccination and a less restrictive open vial strategy could substantially reduce childhood TB cases and TB-related mortality. Although outreach activities are more expensive than vaccination at a health care facility only, these activities proved to be cost-effective. These strategies might also be beneficial in other high-incidence outreach settings.

Anticipated barriers and facilitators for implementing smart inhalers in asthma medication adherence management

Smart inhalers are electronic monitoring devices which are promising in increasing medication adherence and maintaining asthma control. A multi-stakeholder capacity and needs assessment is recommended prior to implementation in healthcare systems. This study aimed to explore perceptions of stakeholders and to identify anticipated facilitators and barriers associated with the implementation of smart digital inhalers in the Dutch healthcare system. Data were collected through focus group discussions with female patients with asthma (n = 9) and healthcare professionals (n = 7) and through individual semi-structured interviews with policy makers (n = 4) and smart inhaler developers (n = 4). Data were analysed using the Framework method. Five themes were identified: (i) perceived benefits, (ii) usability, (iii) feasibility, (iv) payment and reimbursement, and (v) data safety and ownership. In total, 14 barriers and 32 facilitators were found among all stakeholders. The results of this study could contribute to the design of a tailored implementation strategy for smart inhalers in daily practice.

Predicted Public Health and Economic Impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination with Variable Duration of Protection for Adults ≥60 Years in Belgium

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory infection (ARI) in older adults. This study used a static, cohort-based decision-tree model to estimate the public health and economic impact of vaccination against RSV in Belgians aged ≥60 years compared with no vaccination for different vaccine duration of protection profiles from a healthcare payer perspective. Three vaccine protection durations were compared (1, 3, and 5 years), and several sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed. Results showed that an RSV vaccine with a 3-year duration of protection would prevent 154,728 symptomatic RSV-ARI cases, 3688 hospitalizations, and 502 deaths over three years compared to no vaccination in older adults and would save EUR 35,982,857 in direct medical costs in Belgium. The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one RSV-ARI case was 11 for the 3-year duration profile, while it was 28 and 8 for the 1- and 5-year vaccine duration profiles, respectively. The model was generally robust in sensitivity analyses varying key input values. This study suggested that vaccination could substantially decrease the public health and economic burden of RSV in adults ≥60 years in Belgium, with benefits increasing with a longer duration of vaccine protection.

Evaluating the reactogenicity of COVID-19 vaccines from network-meta analyses

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based reassurances addressing vaccine-related concerns are crucial to promoting primary vaccination, completion of the primary series, and booster vaccination. By summarizing and comparing the reactogenicity of COVID-19 vaccines authorized by the European Medicines Agency, this analysis aims to support in-formed decision-making by the lay public and help overcome vaccine hesitancy.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A systematic literature review identified 24 records reporting solicited adverse events for AZD1222, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, NVX-Cov2373, and VLA2001 in individuals aged 16 or older. Network meta-analyses were conducted for each solicited adverse events reported for at least two vaccines that were not compared head-to-head but could be connected through a common comparator.

RESULTS

A total of 56 adverse events were investigated through network meta-analyses within a Bayesian framework with random-effects models. Overall, the two mRNA vaccines were found to be the most reactogenic vaccines. VLA2001 had the highest likelihood of being the least reactogenic vaccine after the first and second vaccine dose, especially for systemic adverse events after the first dose.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduced chance of experiencing an adverse event with some COVID-19 vaccines may help to overcome vaccine hesitancy in population groups with concerns about the side effects of vaccines.

Translation, Validity, and Reliability of the Indonesian Version of the Anterior Cruciate Ligament-Return to Sport After Injury Scale

Background

The Anterior Cruciate Ligament-Return to Sport After Injury (ACL-RSI) scale measures athletes' emotion, confidence, and risk appraisal when returning to sports after an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury and/or ACL reconstruction (ACLR).

Purpose

To translate the ACL-RSI into the Indonesian language and to assess its validity and reliability in Indonesian-speaking patients after ACLR.

Study Design

Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2.

Methods

After a forward-and-backward translation procedure, the validity and reliability of the Indonesian version of the ACL-RSI (I-ACL-RSI) were investigated. Patients who had undergone ACLR at a single hospital were asked to complete 4 questionnaires: I-ACL-RSI, Injury-Psychological Readiness to Return to Sport, Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia, and International Knee Documentation Committee. After a 2-week interval, patients were asked to complete the I-ACL-RSI a second time. Following the COSMIN reporting guidelines (Consensus-Based Standards for the Selection of Health Measurement Instruments), we determined construct validity using hypothesis testing, as well as test-retest reliability, internal consistency, floor and ceiling effects, and measurement error.

Results

Of 200 eligible patients, 102 (51%) were included in the analysis. All predefined hypotheses on correlations between the I-ACL-RSI and the other questionnaires were confirmed, indicating good construct validity. An intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.90 (2-way random, type agreement) was found for the first and second I-ACL-RSI scores, indicating good test-retest reliability. A Cronbach α of 0.95 indicated good internal consistency, and no floor or ceiling effects were found. The standard error of measurement was 3.9, with the minimal detectable change calculated as 10.9 points at the individual level and 1.1 points at the group level.

Conclusion

Based on the study findings, the I-ACL-RSI can be considered a valid and reliable questionnaire for Indonesian-speaking patients after ACL injury and/or ACLR.

Investing in the Prevention of Communicable Disease Outbreaks: Fiscal Health Modelling-The Tool of Choice for Assessing Public Finance Sustainability

National strategies for preparedness for future outbreaks of COVID-19 often include timely preparedness with vaccines. Fiscal health modelling (FHM) has recently been brought forward as an additional analysis by defining the public economic impact from a governmental perspective. As governments are the main decision-makers concerning pandemic preparedness, this study aimed to develop an FHM framework for infectious diseases in the Netherlands. Based on the Dutch COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 and 2021 and publicly available data on tax income and gross domestic product (GDP), the fiscal impact of COVID-19 was assessed using two approaches. Approach I: Prospective modelling of future fiscal impact based on publicly available laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases; and Approach II: Retrospective assessment of the extrapolated tax and benefit income and GDP. Approach I estimated the consequences that can be causally linked to the population counts reducing income taxes by EUR 266 million. The total fiscal loss amounted to EUR 164 million over 2 years (excluding pension payments averted). The total losses in terms of tax income (2020 and 2021) and GDP (2020) (Approach II), were estimated at, respectively, EUR 13.58 billion and EUR 96.3 billion. This study analysed different aspects of a communicable disease outbreak and its influence on government public accounts. The choice of the two presented approaches depends on the perspective of the analysis, the time horizon of the analysis and the availability of data.

Reducing Hospital Capacity Needs for Seasonal Respiratory Infections: The Case of Switching to High-Dose Influenza Vaccine for Dutch Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

Influenza is responsible for considerable health and economic burden every year. Especially older adults are vulnerable for influenza infection and its complications due to immunosenescence and often-underlying medical conditions. Recently, the innovative quadrivalent high-dose influenza vaccine (QIV-HD) has become available in Europe. Through its enhanced immunogenicity, QIV-HD offers improved protection for older adults against respiratory as well as cardiovascular complications. We estimated the potential impact-specifically in terms of hospital admissions and related costs-of a hypothetical past switch from QIV-Standard dose (SD) to QIV-HD in The Netherlands.

METHODS

Estimates of hospitalizations for the older adults vaccinated with QIV-SD were derived from the seasons 2010/2011-2017/2018. Subsequently, the number of respiratory infections and cardiovascular complications of influenza were estimated for the year 2019/2020 for both QIV-SD and QIV-HD. To calculate the overall corresponding savings, costs for hospital complications, derived from literature, were used.

RESULTS

When QIV-HD would have been used instead of QIV-SD during the season 2019/2020, an additional 220 hospitalizations would have been averted among older adults of 60 years and older in the Netherlands. This corresponds to savings of €1 219 779 (uncertainty interval: 1 089 813-1 348 549), of which 69% is attributable to cardiovascular-related hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate that a relevant improvement in influenza vaccination among older adults in The Netherlands can be achieved by switching from the current QIV-SD to QIV-HD. Not only comes a switch from QIV-SD to QIV-HD with a significant reduction in pressure on hospital capacity but also with notable cost savings.

Pralsetinib for RET Fusion-Positive Advanced Non-small-Cell Lung Cancer: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer (Roche) of pralsetinib (Gavreto^®), as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process, to submit evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of pralsetinib for the treatment of adult patients with rearranged during transfection (RET) fusion-positive advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) not previously treated with a RET inhibitor. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd, in collaboration with University Medical Center Groningen, was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper summarizes the company submission (CS), presents the ERG's critical review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence in the CS, highlights the key methodological considerations, and describes the development of the NICE guidance by the Appraisal Committee. The CS reported data from the ARROW trial. ARROW is a single-arm, multicenter, non-randomized, open-label, multi-cohort study in patients with RET fusion-positive NSCLC and other advanced solid tumors. The CS included both untreated and pre-treated RET fusion-positive NSCLC patients, among other disease types. The comparators in the untreated population were pembrolizumab + pemetrexed + chemotherapy and pembrolizumab monotherapy. The comparators for the pre-treated population were docetaxel monotherapy, docetaxel + nintedanib, and platinum-based chemotherapy ± pemetrexed. As no comparators were included in ARROW, an indirect treatment comparison was conducted to estimate relative effectiveness. The ERG's concerns included the immaturity of data, small sample size, and lack of comparative safety evidence. The ERG considers the clinical evidence presented to be insufficiently robust to inform the economic model. Even when all the ERG preferred assumptions were implemented in the model, uncertainty remained on a number of issues, such as the appropriateness of the hazard ratios and the methods and data used to derive them, long-term efficacy of pralsetinib, and direct evidence for health-related quality of life (HRQoL). NICE did not recommend pralsetinib within its marketing authorization for treating RET fusion-positive advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in adults who have not had a RET inhibitor before. The uncertainty of the clinical evidence and the estimates of cost effectiveness were too high to be considered a cost-effective use of NHS resources. Therefore, pralsetinib was not recommended for routine use.