Phenomewide Association Study of Health Outcomes Associated With the Genetic Correlates of 25 Hydroxyvitamin D Concentration and Vitamin D Binding Protein Concentration

While it is known that vitamin D deficiency is associated with adverse bone outcomes, it remains unclear whether low vitamin D status may increase the risk of a wider range of health outcomes. We had the opportunity to explore the association between common genetic variants associated with both 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) and the vitamin D binding protein (DBP, encoded by the GC gene) with a comprehensive range of health disorders and laboratory tests in a large academic medical center. We used summary statistics for 25OHD and DBP to generate polygenic scores (PGS) for 66,482 participants with primarily European ancestry and 13,285 participants with primarily African ancestry from the Vanderbilt University Medical Center Biobank (BioVU). We examined the predictive properties of PGS25OHD, and two scores related to DBP concentration with respect to 1322 health-related phenotypes and 315 laboratory-measured phenotypes from electronic health records. In those with European ancestry: (a) the PGS25OHD and PGSDBP scores, and individual SNPs rs4588 and rs7041 were associated with both 25OHD concentration and 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D concentrations; (b) higher PGS25OHD was associated with decreased concentrations of triglycerides and cholesterol, and reduced risks of vitamin D deficiency, disorders of lipid metabolism, and diabetes. In general, the findings for the African ancestry group were consistent with findings from the European ancestry analyses. Our study confirms the utility of PGS and two key variants within the GC gene (rs4588 and rs7041) to predict the risk of vitamin D deficiency in clinical settings and highlights the shared biology between vitamin D-related genetic pathways a range of health outcomes.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quantifying the Relative Importance of Genetics and Environment on the Comorbidity between Mental- and Cardiometabolic Disorders: A Comprehensive Analysis of National Register Data from 17 million Scandinavians

Mental disorders (MDs) are leading causes of disability and premature death worldwide, partly due to high comorbidity with cardiometabolic disorders (CMDs). Reasons for this comorbidity are still poorly understood. We leverage nation-wide health records and complete genealogies of Denmark and Sweden (n=17 million) to reveal the genetic and environmental contributions underlying the observed comorbidity between six MDs and 14 CMDs. Genetic factors contributed about 50% to the comorbidity of schizophrenia, affective disorders, and autism spectrum disorder with CMDs, whereas the comorbidity of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and anorexia with CMDs was mainly or fully driven by environmental factors. These findings provide causal insight to guide clinical and scientific initiatives directed at achieving mechanistic understanding as well as preventing and alleviating the consequences of these disorders.

The Role of Socioeconomic Position in the Association Between Mental Disorders and Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Studies are lacking summarizing how the association between mental disorders and mortality varies by socioeconomic position (SEP), particularly considering different aspects of SEP, specific types of mental disorders, and causes of death.

Objective

To investigate the role of SEP in the association between mental disorders and mortality and the association between SEP and mortality among people with mental disorders.

Data Sources

MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science were searched from January 1, 1980, through April 3, 2023, and a snowball search of reference and citation lists was conducted.

Study Selection

Inclusion criteria were observational studies estimating the associations between different types of mental disorders and mortality, stratified by SEP and between SEP and mortality in people with mental disorders.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Pairs of reviewers independently extracted data using a predefined data extraction form and assessed the risk of bias using the adapted Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Graphical analyses of the dose-response associations and random-effects meta-analyses were performed. Heterogeneity was explored through meta-regressions and sensitivity analyses.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Results

Of 28 274 articles screened, 71 including more than 4 million people with mental disorders met the inclusion criteria (most of which were conducted in high-income countries). The relative associations between mental disorders and mortality were similar across SEP levels. Among people with mental disorders, belonging to the highest rather than the lowest SEP group was associated with lower all-cause mortality (pooled relative risk [RR], 0.79; 95% CI, 0.73-0.86) and mortality from natural causes (RR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.62-0.85) and higher mortality from external causes (RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.99-1.41). Heterogeneity was high (I2 = 83% to 99%). Results from subgroup, sensitivity, and meta-regression analyses were consistent with those from the main analyses. Evidence on absolute scales, specific diagnoses, and specific causes of death was scarce.

Conclusion and Relevance

This study did not find a sufficient body of evidence that SEP moderated the relative association between mental disorders and mortality, but the underlying mortality rates may differ by SEP group, despite having scarcely been reported. This information gap, together with our findings related to SEP and a possible differential risk between natural and external causes of death in individuals with specific types of mental disorders, warrants further research.

The correlates of neonatal complement component 3 and 4 protein concentrations with a focus on psychiatric and autoimmune disorders

Complement components have been linked to schizophrenia and autoimmune disorders. We examined the association between neonatal circulating C3 and C4 protein concentrations in 68,768 neonates and the risk of six mental disorders. We completed genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for C3 and C4 and applied the summary statistics in Mendelian randomization and phenome-wide association studies related to mental and autoimmune disorders. The GWASs for C3 and C4 protein concentrations identified 15 and 36 independent loci, respectively. We found no associations between neonatal C3 and C4 concentrations and mental disorders in the total sample (both sexes combined); however, post-hoc analyses found that a higher C3 concentration was associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia in females. Mendelian randomization based on C4 summary statistics found an altered risk of five types of autoimmune disorders. Our study adds to our understanding of the associations between C3 and C4 concentrations and subsequent mental and autoimmune disorders.

Polygenic Risk of Mental Disorders and Subject-Specific School Grades

BACKGROUND

Education is essential for socioeconomic security and long-term mental health; however, mental disorders are often detrimental to the educational trajectory. Genetic correlations between mental disorders and educational attainment do not always align with corresponding phenotypic associations, implying heterogeneity in the genetic overlap.

METHODS

We unraveled this heterogeneity by investigating associations between polygenic risk scores for 6 mental disorders and fine-grained school outcomes: school grades in language and mathematics in ninth grade and high school, as well as educational attainment by age 25, using nationwide-representative data from established cohorts (N = 79,489).

RESULTS

High polygenic liability of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder was associated with lower grades in language and mathematics, whereas high polygenic risk of anorexia nervosa or bipolar disorder was associated with higher grades in language and mathematics. Associations between polygenic risk and school grades were mixed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder and neutral for autism spectrum disorder.

CONCLUSIONS

Polygenic risk scores for mental disorders are differentially associated with language and mathematics school grades.

Cat Ownership and Schizophrenia-Related Disorders and Psychotic-Like Experiences: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

It has been proposed that cat ownership may be a risk-modifying factor for schizophrenia-related disorders and psychotic-like experiences (PLE). This study aimed to systematically review and meta-analyze publications that reported the relationship between cat ownership and schizophrenia-related outcomes.

METHODOLOGY

We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, and gray literature for publications between January 1, 1980, and May 30, 2023, regardless of geographical location and language. Backward citation search methods were used to locate additional articles. We included studies that reported original data on cat ownership and schizophrenia-related outcomes. We meta-analyzed estimates based on broad definitions (cat ownership, cat bites, and cat contact) with estimates with or without covariate adjustments. We pooled comparable estimates using random-effects models and assessed the risk of bias, heterogeneity, and study quality.

RESULTS

We identified 1915 studies, of which 106 were chosen for full-text review, ultimately resulting in the inclusion of 17 studies. We found an association between broadly defined cat ownership and increased odds of developing schizophrenia-related disorders. The unadjusted pooled odds ratio (OR) was 2.35 (95% CI: 1.38-4.01), while the adjusted pooled estimate was 2.24 (95% CI: 1.61-3.12). We were unable to aggregate the estimates for the PLE outcomes because of the broad range of measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support an association between cat exposure and an increased risk of broadly defined schizophrenia-related disorders; however, the findings related to PLE as an outcome are mixed. There is a need for more high-quality studies in this field.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION

PROSPERO 2023 CRD42023426974. Available from: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42023426974.

Cross-ancestry analyses identify new genetic loci associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D

Vitamin D status-a complex trait influenced by environmental and genetic factors-is tightly associated with skin colour and ancestry. Yet very few studies have investigated the genetic underpinnings of vitamin D levels across diverse ancestries, and the ones that have, relied on small sample sizes, resulting in inconclusive results. Here, we conduct genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD)-the main circulating form of vitamin D-in 442,435 individuals from four broad genetically-determined ancestry groups represented in the UK Biobank: European (N = 421,867), South Asian (N = 9,983), African (N = 8,306) and East Asian (N = 2,279). We identify a new genetic determinant of 25OHD (rs146759773) in individuals of African ancestry, which was not detected in previous analysis of much larger European cohorts due to low minor allele frequency. We show genome-wide significant evidence of dominance effects in 25OHD that protect against vitamin D deficiency. Given that key events in the synthesis of 25OHD occur in the skin and are affected by pigmentation levels, we conduct GWAS of 25OHD stratified by skin colour and identify new associations. Lastly, we test the interaction between skin colour and variants associated with variance in 25OHD levels and identify two loci (rs10832254 and rs1352846) whose association with 25OHD differs in individuals of distinct complexions. Collectively, our results provide new insights into the complex relationship between 25OHD and skin colour and highlight the importance of diversity in genomic studies. Despite the much larger rates of vitamin D deficiency that we and others report for ancestry groups with dark skin (e.g., South Asian), our study highlights the importance of considering ancestral background and/or skin colour when assessing the implications of low vitamin D.

Comorbidity between major depressive disorder and physical diseases: a comprehensive review of epidemiology, mechanisms and management

Populations with common physical diseases - such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer and neurodegenerative disorders - experience substantially higher rates of major depressive disorder (MDD) than the general population. On the other hand, people living with MDD have a greater risk for many physical diseases. This high level of comorbidity is associated with worse outcomes, reduced adherence to treatment, increased mortality, and greater health care utilization and costs. Comorbidity can also result in a range of clinical challenges, such as a more complicated therapeutic alliance, issues pertaining to adaptive health behaviors, drug-drug interactions and adverse events induced by medications used for physical and mental disorders. Potential explanations for the high prevalence of the above comorbidity involve shared genetic and biological pathways. These latter include inflammation, the gut microbiome, mitochondrial function and energy metabolism, hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis dysregulation, and brain structure and function. Furthermore, MDD and physical diseases have in common several antecedents related to social factors (e.g., socioeconomic status), lifestyle variables (e.g., physical activity, diet, sleep), and stressful live events (e.g., childhood trauma). Pharmacotherapies and psychotherapies are effective treatments for comorbid MDD, and the introduction of lifestyle interventions as well as collaborative care models and digital technologies provide promising strategies for improving management. This paper aims to provide a detailed overview of the epidemiology of the comorbidity of MDD and specific physical diseases, including prevalence and bidirectional risk; of shared biological pathways potentially implicated in the pathogenesis of MDD and common physical diseases; of socio-environmental factors that serve as both shared risk and protective factors; and of management of MDD and physical diseases, including prevention and treatment. We conclude with future directions and emerging research related to optimal care of people with comorbid MDD and physical diseases.

ADuLT: An efficient and robust time-to-event GWAS

Proportional hazards models have been proposed to analyse time-to-event phenotypes in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, little is known about the ability of proportional hazards models to identify genetic associations under different generative models and when ascertainment is present. Here we propose the age-dependent liability threshold (ADuLT) model as an alternative to a Cox regression based GWAS, here represented by SPACox. We compare ADuLT, SPACox, and standard case-control GWAS in simulations under two generative models and with varying degrees of ascertainment as well as in the iPSYCH cohort. We find Cox regression GWAS to be underpowered when cases are strongly ascertained (cases are oversampled by a factor 5), regardless of the generative model used. ADuLT is robust to ascertainment in all simulated scenarios. Then, we analyse four psychiatric disorders in iPSYCH, ADHD, Autism, Depression, and Schizophrenia, with a strong case-ascertainment. Across these psychiatric disorders, ADuLT identifies 20 independent genome-wide significant associations, case-control GWAS finds 17, and SPACox finds 8, which is consistent with simulation results. As more genetic data are being linked to electronic health records, robust GWAS methods that can make use of age-of-onset information will help increase power in analyses for common health outcomes.

Age of onset and cumulative risk of mental disorders: a cross-national analysis of population surveys from 29 countries

BACKGROUND

Information on the frequency and timing of mental disorder onsets across the lifespan is of fundamental importance for public health planning. Broad, cross-national estimates of this information from coordinated general population surveys were last updated in 2007. We aimed to provide updated and improved estimates of age-of-onset distributions, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk.

METHODS

In this cross-national analysis, we analysed data from respondents aged 18 years or older to the World Mental Health surveys, a coordinated series of cross-sectional, face-to-face community epidemiological surveys administered between 2001 and 2022. In the surveys, the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured psychiatric diagnostic interview, was used to assess age of onset, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk of 13 DSM-IV mental disorders until age 75 years across surveys by sex. We did not assess ethnicity. The surveys were geographically clustered and weighted to adjust for selection probability, and standard errors of incidence rates and cumulative incidence curves were calculated using the jackknife repeated replications simulation method, taking weighting and geographical clustering of data into account.

FINDINGS

We included 156 331 respondents from 32 surveys in 29 countries, including 12 low-income and middle-income countries and 17 high-income countries, and including 85 308 (54·5%) female respondents and 71 023 (45·4%) male respondents. The lifetime prevalence of any mental disorder was 28·6% (95% CI 27·9-29·2) for male respondents and 29·8% (29·2-30·3) for female respondents. Morbid risk of any mental disorder by age 75 years was 46·4% (44·9-47·8) for male respondents and 53·1% (51·9-54·3) for female respondents. Conditional probabilities of first onset peaked at approximately age 15 years, with a median age of onset of 19 years (IQR 14-32) for male respondents and 20 years (12-36) for female respondents. The two most prevalent disorders were alcohol use disorder and major depressive disorder for male respondents and major depressive disorder and specific phobia for female respondents.

INTERPRETATION

By age 75 years, approximately half the population can expect to develop one or more of the 13 mental disorders considered in this Article. These disorders typically first emerge in childhood, adolescence, or young adulthood. Services should have the capacity to detect and treat common mental disorders promptly and to optimise care that suits people at these crucial parts of the life course.

FUNDING

None.

Multi-PGS enhances polygenic prediction by combining 937 polygenic scores

The predictive performance of polygenic scores (PGS) is largely dependent on the number of samples available to train the PGS. Increasing the sample size for a specific phenotype is expensive and takes time, but this sample size can be effectively increased by using genetically correlated phenotypes. We propose a framework to generate multi-PGS from thousands of publicly available genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with no need to individually select the most relevant ones. In this study, the multi-PGS framework increases prediction accuracy over single PGS for all included psychiatric disorders and other available outcomes, with prediction R2 increases of up to 9-fold for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder compared to a single PGS. We also generate multi-PGS for phenotypes without an existing GWAS and for case-case predictions. We benchmark the multi-PGS framework against other methods and highlight its potential application to new emerging biobanks.

Depression pathophysiology, risk prediction of recurrence and comorbid psychiatric disorders using genome-wide analyses

Depression is a common psychiatric disorder and a leading cause of disability worldwide. Here we conducted a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of six datasets, including >1.3 million individuals (371,184 with depression) and identified 243 risk loci. Overall, 64 loci were new, including genes encoding glutamate and GABA receptors, which are targets for antidepressant drugs. Intersection with functional genomics data prioritized likely causal genes and revealed new enrichment of prenatal GABAergic neurons, astrocytes and oligodendrocyte lineages. We found depression to be highly polygenic, with ~11,700 variants explaining 90% of the single-nucleotide polymorphism heritability, estimating that >95% of risk variants for other psychiatric disorders (anxiety, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) were influencing depression risk when both concordant and discordant variants were considered, and nearly all depression risk variants influenced educational attainment. Additionally, depression genetic risk was associated with impaired complex cognition domains. We dissected the genetic and clinical heterogeneity, revealing distinct polygenic architectures across subgroups of depression and demonstrating significantly increased absolute risks for recurrence and psychiatric comorbidity among cases of depression with the highest polygenic burden, with considerable sex differences. The risks were up to 5- and 32-fold higher than cases with the lowest polygenic burden and the background population, respectively. These results deepen the understanding of the biology underlying depression, its disease progression and inform precision medicine approaches to treatment.

Schizophrenia spectrum disorders in Denmark between 2000 and 2018: Incidence and early diagnostic transition

BACKGROUND

Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) comprise a group of related mental disorders, which share clinical features and common genetic disposition, but it is unknown if there is a diagnostic transition between these disorders over time. We aimed to study the incidence at the first SSD diagnosis between 2000 and 2018, defined as schizophrenia, schizotypal or schizoaffective disorder, and the early diagnostic transition between these disorders.

METHODS

Using Danish nationwide healthcare registers, we identified all individuals aged 15-64 years during the period from 2000 to 2018 in Denmark and calculated the yearly incidence rates for the specific SSDs. We studied the diagnostic pathways from the first ever diagnosis of an SSD across the subsequent two treatment courses with an SSD diagnosis to evaluate early diagnostic stability, and explore potential changes over time.

RESULTS

Among 21,538 patients, yearly incidence rates per 10,000 individuals were similar during the observation period for schizophrenia (2000: 1.8; 2018: 1.6), lower for schizoaffective disorder (2000: 0.3; 2018: 0.1) and increasing for schizotypal disorder (2000: 0.7; 2018: 1.3). Among the subgroup of 13,417 individuals with three separate treatment courses, early diagnostic stability was present among 89.9% which differed between the disorders (schizophrenia: 95.4%; schizotypal disorder: 78.0%; schizoaffective disorder: 80.5%). Among 1352 (10.1%) experiencing an early diagnostic transition, 398 (3.0%) were diagnosed with schizotypal disorder after a schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

This study provides comprehensive incidence rates for SSDs. The majority of patients experienced early diagnostic stability, but sizable proportions of people with initial schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder are subsequently diagnosed with schizotypal disorder.

Agreement between survey- and register-based measures of depression in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Register-based studies of major depressive disorder (MDD) do not capture all prevalent cases, as untreated cases and diagnoses made by general practitioners are not recorded in the registers. We examined the prevalence and agreement of survey- and register-based measures of depression, and explored sociodemographic and health-related factors that may have influenced this agreement.

METHODS

All 32,407 participants in the 2017 Central Denmark Region How are you? survey were linked to hospital and prescription records. A checklist for depressive symptoms within the last 14 days (Major Depression Inventory; MDI) from the survey was compared with register-based assessment of hospital-diagnosed MDD and/or prescriptions for antidepressants. We estimated agreement between survey-based and register-based measures for depression and used logistic regression models to explore selected associated factors.

RESULTS

In total, 5.9% of How are you? survey participants screened positive for current depression on the MDI. Of these, 51.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 49.0-53.6) filled a prescription for an antidepressant medication during the 10 years prior or 2 years following the administration of the survey, and 14.5% (95% CI: 12.9-16.2) were treated for MDD in a psychiatric hospital-based setting. When using a higher threshold of the MDI indicating more severe current depression, 22.8% (95% CI: 19.6-26.1) of those who screened positive also received an MDD diagnosis and 63.4% (95% CI: 59.7-67.2) were prescribed antidepressants during this 12-year period. Among those with current depression, female sex, older age, chronic diseases, hospital-treated self-harm, and being permanently outside the workforce were associated with having a register-based MDD diagnosis or antidepressant prescription. Among those with a register-based depression record, female sex, younger age, hospital-treated self-harm, stress, and severe loneliness were associated with current depression.

CONCLUSION

We found that as few as 15% of individuals with current depression in the general Danish population were captured by the psychiatric hospital register, while 51% of these individuals were identifiable in the prescription register. These findings demonstrate that register-based measures significantly underestimate the true prevalence of depression by identifying only the cases that are most severe.

Antidepressant use in low- middle- and high-income countries: a World Mental Health Surveys report

BACKGROUND

The most common treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD) is antidepressant medication (ADM). Results are reported on frequency of ADM use, reasons for use, and perceived effectiveness of use in general population surveys across 20 countries.

METHODS

Face-to-face interviews with community samples totaling n = 49 919 respondents in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys asked about ADM use anytime in the prior 12 months in conjunction with validated fully structured diagnostic interviews. Treatment questions were administered independently of diagnoses and asked of all respondents.

RESULTS

3.1% of respondents reported ADM use within the past 12 months. In high-income countries (HICs), depression (49.2%) and anxiety (36.4%) were the most common reasons for use. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), depression (38.4%) and sleep problems (31.9%) were the most common reasons for use. Prevalence of use was 2-4 times as high in HICs as LMICs across all examined diagnoses. Newer ADMs were proportionally used more often in HICs than LMICs. Across all conditions, ADMs were reported as very effective by 58.8% of users and somewhat effective by an additional 28.3% of users, with both proportions higher in LMICs than HICs. Neither ADM class nor reason for use was a significant predictor of perceived effectiveness.

CONCLUSION

ADMs are in widespread use and for a variety of conditions including but going beyond depression and anxiety. In a general population sample from multiple LMICs and HICs, ADMs were widely perceived to be either very or somewhat effective by the people who use them.

Bidirectional Associations Between Asthma and Types of Mental Disorders

BACKGROUND

Asthma and mental disorders frequently co-occur. Studies of their comorbidity have generally focused on associations related to a subset of mental disorders.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate bidirectional associations between asthma and 10 broad types of mental disorders.

METHODS

In a population-based cohort study, including all individuals born in Denmark between 1955 and 2011 (N = 5,053,471), we considered diagnoses of comorbid mental disorders among those with asthma, and vice versa, between 2000 and 2016. We used Cox regression models to calculate overall and time-dependent hazard ratios for mental disorder-asthma pairs and competing-risks survival analyses to estimate absolute risks.

RESULTS

Altogether, 376,756 individuals were identified as having an incident mental disorder and 364,063 incident asthma during follow-up. An increased risk was seen for all bidirectional mental disorder-asthma pairs. Following an asthma diagnosis, adjusted hazard ratios for different subsequent mental disorders ranged from 1.75 (95% CI, 1.64-1.87) for organic disorders to 2.75 (95% CI, 2.69-2.81) for personality disorders. Following a prior mental disorder diagnosis, hazard ratios for asthma ranged from 1.06 (95% CI, 1.00-1.12) for developmental disorders to 2.33 (95% CI, 2.28-2.39) for substance use disorders. Risks varied with time since prior disorder diagnosis but remained elevated. Cumulative incidence of (1) asthma after a mental disorder and (2) a mental disorder after asthma was higher in those with prior disorders than in matched reference groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide evidence of bidirectional associations between asthma and each of the mental disorder types, suggesting possible shared etiological factors or pathophysiologic processes.

Genetic correlates of vitamin D-binding protein and 25-hydroxyvitamin D in neonatal dried blood spots

The vitamin D binding protein (DBP), encoded by the group-specific component (GC) gene, is a component of the vitamin D system. In a genome-wide association study of DBP concentration in 65,589 neonates we identify 26 independent loci, 17 of which are in or close to the GC gene, with fine-mapping identifying 2 missense variants on chromosomes 12 and 17 (within SH2B3 and GSDMA, respectively). When adjusted for GC haplotypes, we find 15 independent loci distributed over 10 chromosomes. Mendelian randomization analyses identify a unidirectional effect of higher DBP concentration and (a) higher 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration, and (b) a reduced risk of multiple sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis. A phenome-wide association study confirms that higher DBP concentration is associated with a reduced risk of vitamin D deficiency. Our findings provide valuable insights into the influence of DBP on vitamin D status and a range of health outcomes.

Development and evaluation of a risk algorithm predicting alcohol dependence after early onset of regular alcohol use

AIMS

Likelihood of alcohol dependence (AD) is increased among people who transition to greater levels of alcohol involvement at a younger age. Indicated interventions delivered early may be effective in reducing risk, but could be costly. One way to increase cost-effectiveness would be to develop a prediction model that targeted interventions to the subset of youth with early alcohol use who are at highest risk of subsequent AD.

DESIGN

A prediction model was developed for DSM-IV AD onset by age 25 years using an ensemble machine-learning algorithm known as 'Super Learner'. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) assessed variable importance.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Respondents reporting early onset of regular alcohol use (i.e. by 17 years of age) who were aged 25 years or older at interview from 14 representative community surveys conducted in 13 countries as part of WHO's World Mental Health Surveys.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome to be predicted was onset of life-time DSM-IV AD by age 25 as measured using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured diagnostic interview.

FINDINGS

AD prevalence by age 25 was 5.1% among the 10 687 individuals who reported drinking alcohol regularly by age 17. The prediction model achieved an external area under the curve [0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.74-0.81] higher than any individual candidate risk model (0.73-0.77) and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.22. Overall calibration was good [integrated calibration index (ICI) = 1.05%]; however, miscalibration was observed at the extreme ends of the distribution of predicted probabilities. Interventions provided to the 20% of people with highest risk would identify 49% of AD cases and require treating four people without AD to reach one with AD. Important predictors of increased risk included younger onset of alcohol use, males, higher cohort alcohol use and more mental disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

A risk algorithm can be created using data collected at the onset of regular alcohol use to target youth at highest risk of alcohol dependence by early adulthood. Important considerations remain for advancing the development and practical implementation of such models.

The association between mental disorders and subsequent years of working life: a Danish population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Mental disorders can affect workforce participation via a range of mechanisms. In this study, we aimed to estimate the association between different types of mental disorders and working years lost, defined as the number of years not actively working or enrolled in an educational programme.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we included all people aged 18-65 years (mean 38·0 [SD 13·9]) in the Danish Civil Registration System from Jan 1, 1995 to Dec 31, 2016. Information on mental disorders was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register and information on labour market characteristics was obtained from administrative registers. Follow-up started at age 18 years, immigration to Denmark, or on Jan 1, 1995, whichever came later; and it ended at age 65 years, death, emigration from Denmark, disability pension, voluntary early retirement, or Dec 31, 2016 (whichever came earlier). As the main outcome, we estimated working years lost for those diagnosed with any mental disorder and 24 types of mental disorders, as well as for the general population of same age and sex. We decomposed total working years lost into periods of unemployment or sick leave, disability pension, voluntary early retirement, or death. Data on ethnicity were not available through administrative registers.

FINDINGS

A total of 5 163 321 individuals, 2 642 383 men and 2 520 938 women, were followed up for 65·4 million person-years. Overall, 488 775 (9·47%) individuals were diagnosed with a mental disorder. On average, individuals with mental disorders lost an additional 10·52 (95% CI 10·48-10·57) years of working life compared with the general Danish population. Receiving a disability pension (7·54 [7·49-7·59] years) and longer periods of unemployment (2·24 [2·21-2·27] years) accounted for most of this difference.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings foreground the substantial impact of mental disorders on workforce participation. There is a need to invest in programmes that reduce the burden of working years lost and assist people with mental disorders in returning to the workforce.

FUNDING

Lundbeck Foundation and Danish National Research Foundation.

The contribution of general medical conditions to the non-fatal burden of mental disorders: register-based cohort study in Denmark

BACKGROUND

General medical conditions (GMCs) often co-occur with mental and substance use disorders (MSDs).

AIMS

To explore the contribution of GMCs to the burden of disease in people with MSDs, and investigate how this varied by age.

METHOD

A population-based cohort of 6 988 507 persons living in Denmark during 2000-2015 followed for up to 16 years. Danish health registers were used to identify people with MSDs and GMCs. For each MSD, years lived with disability and health loss proportion (HeLP) were estimated for comorbid MSDs and GMCs, using a multiplicative model for disability weights.

RESULTS

Those with any MSD lost the equivalent of 43% of healthy life (HeLP = 0.43, 95% CI 0.40-0.44) after including information on GMCs, which was an increase from 25% before including GMCs (HeLP = 0.25, 95% CI 0.23-0.27). Schizophrenia was associated with the highest burden of disease (HeLP = 0.77, 95% CI 0.68-0.85). However, within each disorder, the relative contribution of MSDs and GMCs varied. For example, in those diagnosed with schizophrenia, MSDs and GMCs accounted for 86% and 14% of the total health loss; in contrast, in those with anxiety disorders, the same proportions were 59% and 41%. In general, HeLP increased with age, and was mainly associated with increasing rates of pulmonary, musculoskeletal and circulatory diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

In those with mental disorders, the relative contribution of comorbid GMCs to the non-fatal burden of disease increases with age. GMCs contribute substantially to the non-fatal burden of disease in those with MSDs.

The health care cost of comorbidity in individuals with mental disorders: A Danish register-based study

AIM

The aim of the study was to estimate the annual health care cost by number of comorbid mental and somatic disorders in persons with a mental disorder.

METHODS

All persons living in Denmark between 2004 and 2017 with a hospital diagnosis of a mental disorder were identified. We investigated the cost of different health care services: psychiatric hospitals, somatic hospitals, primary health care (e.g. general practitioners, psychologists and so on) and subsidised prescriptions. Within those with at least one mental disorder, we examined the costs for people with (a) counts of different types of mental disorders (e.g. exactly 1, exactly 2 and so on up to 8 or more) and (b) counts of different types of somatic disorders (e.g. no somatic disorders, exactly 1, exactly 2 and so on up to 15 or more). The estimates are reported in average cost per case and nationwide annual cost in Euro 2017.

RESULTS

In total, 447,209 persons (238,659 females and 208,550 males) were diagnosed with at least one mental disorder in the study period. The average annual health care cost per case and nationwide cost was 4471 Euros and 786 million Euro, respectively, for persons with exactly one mental disorder, and 33,273 Euro and 3.6 million Euro for persons with eight or more mental disorders. The annual health care cost was 4613 Euro per case and 386 million Euro for persons without any somatic disorders, while the cost per case was 16,344 Euro and 0.7 million Euro in nationwide cost for persons with 15 or more disorders. The amount and proportion of the different health care costs varied by type of comorbidity and count of disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

The annual health care cost per case was higher with increasing number of comorbid mental and somatic disorders, while the nationwide annual health care cost was lower with increasing number of comorbid disorders for persons with a mental disorder in Denmark.

Perceived helpfulness of treatment for social anxiety disorder: findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

PURPOSE

To investigate the prevalence and predictors of perceived helpfulness of treatment in persons with a history of DSM-IV social anxiety disorder (SAD), using a worldwide population-based sample.

METHODS

The World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys is a coordinated series of community epidemiological surveys of non-institutionalized adults; 27 surveys in 24 countries (16 in high-income; 11 in low/middle-income countries; N = 117,856) included people with a lifetime history of treated SAD.

RESULTS

In respondents with lifetime SAD, approximately one in five ever obtained treatment. Among these (n = 1322), cumulative probability of receiving treatment they regarded as helpful after seeing up to seven professionals was 92.2%. However, only 30.2% persisted this long, resulting in 65.1% ever receiving treatment perceived as helpful. Perceiving treatment as helpful was more common in female respondents, those currently married, more highly educated, and treated in non-formal health-care settings. Persistence in seeking treatment for SAD was higher among those with shorter delays in seeking treatment, in those receiving medication from a mental health specialist, and those with more than two lifetime anxiety disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

The vast majority of individuals with SAD do not receive any treatment. Among those who do, the probability that people treated for SAD obtain treatment they consider helpful increases considerably if they persisted in help-seeking after earlier unhelpful treatments.

Developmental exposure to vitamin D deficiency and subsequent risk of schizophrenia

Over the last half century, a body of convergent evidence has accumulated linking disruption of early brain development with an increased risk of mental disorders, including schizophrenia. The orderly cascade of brain development may be disrupted by exposure to suboptimal concentrations of a range of biological substrates and micronutrients. We hypothesized that those exposed to vitamin D deficiency during early life, have an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders, including schizophrenia. The hypothesis was based on the link between an increased risk of schizophrenia in (a) those born in winter and spring, when vitamin D deficiency is more prevalent, and (b) the offspring of dark-skinned migrants living in cold climates, who have a markedly increased risk of vitamin D deficiency. In this review, we summarize evidence from analytic epidemiology related to this hypothesis. Two case-control studies based on Danish neonatal dried blood spots have found that neonatal vitamin deficiency is associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia. However, recent genetic analyses have also suggested that common variants linked to schizophrenia may lead to lower vitamin D concentrations (possibly mediated via reduced outdoor activity). We summarize limitations of the current evidence and outline suggestions that can guide future research. Based on currently available data, there is insufficient evidence to support public health recommendations related to this topic. However, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the provision of vitamin D supplementation to pregnant women and/or offspring in groups vulnerable to vitamin D deficiency may subsequently reduce the incidence of schizophrenia in the offspring.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comorbidity between mood and substance-related disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Evidence indicates that mood disorders often co-occur with substance-related disorders. However, pooling comorbidity estimates can be challenging due to heterogeneity in diagnostic criteria and in the overall study design. The aim of this study was to systematically review and, where appropriate, meta-analyse estimates related to the pairwise comorbidity between mood disorders and substance-related disorders, after sorting these estimates by various study designs.

METHODS

We searched PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, CINAHL and Web of Science for publications between 1980 and 2017 regardless of geographical location and language. We meta-analysed estimates from original articles in 4 broadly defined mood and 35 substance-related disorders.

RESULTS

After multiple eligibility steps, we included 120 studies for quantitative analysis. In general, regardless of variations in diagnosis type, temporal order or use of adjustments, there was substantial comorbidity between mood and substance-related disorders. We found a sixfold elevated risk between broadly defined mood disorder and drug dependence (odds ratio = 5.7) and fivefold risk between depression and cannabis dependence (odds ratio = 4.9) while the highest pooled estimate, based on period prevalence risk, was found between broadly defined dysthymic disorder and drug dependence (odds ratio = 11.3). Based on 56 separate meta-analyses, all pooled odds ratios were above 1, and 46 were significantly greater than 1 (i.e. the 95% confidence intervals did not include 1).

CONCLUSION

This review found robust and consistent evidence of an increased risk of comorbidity between many combinations of mood and substance-related disorders. We also identified a number of under-researched mood and substance-related disorders, suitable for future scrutiny. This review reinforces the need for clinicians to remain vigilant in order to promptly identify and treat these common types of comorbidity.

A method to correct for the influence of bovine serum albumin-associated vitamin D metabolites in protein extracts from neonatal dried blood spots

Objective

We developed an assay to measure the concentration of 25 hydroxyvitamin D₂ and D₃ in protein extracts derived from stored neonatal dried blood spots. During this study, we postulated that these samples had been contaminated with exogenous vitamin D metabolites because of the addition of bovine serum albumin (BSA) as part of an extraction step undertaken 7 years earlier. The aim of the current study was to develop methods in order to adjust for this contamination.

Results

We identified between-plate variations in 25 hydroxyvitamin D₂ and D₃ concentrations which suggested the presence of three different BSA batches. Based on repeat extraction (without the addition of BSA) and testing of 395 samples, we developed models to correct for the exogenous 25 hydroxyvitamin D₂ and D_3. The regression models were Diff_25OHD3 = − 8.2 + 1.8* Diff_25OHD2 for low contamination, Diff_25OHD3 = 23.8 + 1.7* Diff_25OHD2 for middle contamination, and Diff_25OHD3 = 14.3 + 3.0* Diff_25OHD2 for high contamination. After these corrections, the three subsamples had comparable distributions within the expected range for both 25 hydroxyvitamin D₂ and D₃.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13104-022-06077-1.

Temporal changes in sex- and age-specific incidence profiles of mental disorders-A nationwide study from 1970 to 2016

OBJECTIVE

Information on mental disorders over time is critical for documenting changes in population burden, and aiding understanding of potential causal and non-causal factors. The aim of this study was to provide temporal changes in the sex- and age-specific incidence rates (IR) of mental disorders diagnosed in Danish hospitals during five decades and investigate whether such changes may be attributable to changes in administrative reporting practice.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study included all people living in Denmark between 1970 and 2016. Mental disorders diagnoses were obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register. We estimated the IR of each mental disorder (all persons, and sex- and age-specific IRs) and examined the impact of two administrative changes.

RESULTS

Our study included 9 107 157 people, followed for 233.0 million person-years. During follow-up, 9.5% were diagnosed with at least one mental disorder. The IR for any mental disorder was 39.0 per 10,000 person-years. Despite fluctuations, this increased between 1970-84 and 2005-2016, from 28.9 to 63.0 per 10,000 person-years. Increases were most pronounced for younger age groups. Administrative changes did appear to influence incidence rates.

CONCLUSION

Mental disorder IRs have increased in Denmark since 1970, with age of diagnosis shifting downwards. Both trends were likely impacted by administrative changes, while the latter is likely to be (partly) attributable to earlier detection and increased reporting of child-onset conditions. Our findings may provide valuable context of the epidemiology of mental disorders across age groups for comparison with other studies and populations.

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10-24 years in the EU, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Disability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU.

METHODS

Estimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Causes of NCDs were analysed at three different levels of the GBD 2019 hierarchy, for which mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted. Estimates, with the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were retrieved for EU Member States from 1990 to 2019, three age subgroups (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years), and by sex. Spearman's correlation was conducted between DALY rates for NCDs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of each EU Member State.

FINDINGS

In 2019, NCDs accounted for 86·4% (95% uncertainty interval 83·5-88·8) of all YLDs and 38·8% (37·4-39·8) of total deaths in adolescents aged 10-24 years. For NCDs in this age group, neoplasms were the leading causes of both mortality (4·01 [95% uncertainty interval 3·62-4·25] per 100 000 population) and YLLs (281·78 [254·25-298·92] per 100 000 population), whereas mental disorders were the leading cause for YLDs (2039·36 [1432·56-2773·47] per 100 000 population) and DALYs (2040·59 [1433·96-2774·62] per 100 000 population) in all EU Member States, and in all studied age groups. In 2019, among adolescents aged 10-24 years, males had a higher mortality rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs than females (11·66 [11·04-12·28] vs 7·89 [7·53-8·23]), whereas females presented a higher DALY rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs (8003·25 [5812·78-10 701·59] vs 6083·91 [4576·63-7857·92]). From 1990 to 2019, mortality rate due to NCDs in adolescents aged 10-24 years substantially decreased (-40·41% [-43·00 to -37·61), and also the YLL rate considerably decreased (-40·56% [-43·16 to -37·74]), except for mental disorders (which increased by 32·18% [1·67 to 66·49]), whereas the YLD rate increased slightly (1·44% [0·09 to 2·79]). Positive correlations were observed between DALY rates and SDIs for substance use disorders (r_s=0·58, p=0·0012) and skin and subcutaneous diseases (r_s=0·45, p=0·017), whereas negative correlations were found between DALY rates and SDIs for cardiovascular diseases (r_s=-0·46, p=0·015), neoplasms (r_s=-0·57, p=0·0015), and sense organ diseases (r_s=-0·61, p=0·0005).

INTERPRETATION

NCD-related mortality has substantially declined among adolescents in the EU between 1990 and 2019, but the rising trend of YLL attributed to mental disorders and their YLD burden are concerning. Differences by sex, age group, and across EU Member States highlight the importance of preventive interventions and scaling up adolescent-responsive health-care systems, which should prioritise specific needs by sex, age, and location.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Analysis of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders in Denmark, 2000 to 2018: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The provision of different types of mortality metrics (e.g., mortality rate ratios [MRRs] and life expectancy) allows the research community to access a more informative set of health metrics. The aim of this study was to provide a panel of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders and to design a web page to visualize all results.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In a population-based cohort of all 7,378,598 persons living in Denmark at some point between 2000 and 2018, we identified individuals diagnosed at hospitals with 1,803 specific categories of disorders through the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) in the National Patient Register. Information on date and cause of death was obtained from the Registry of Causes of Death. For each of the disorders, a panel of epidemiological and mortality metrics was estimated, including incidence rates, age-of-onset distributions, MRRs, and differences in life expectancy (estimated as life years lost [LYLs]). Additionally, we examined models that adjusted for measures of air pollution to explore potential associations with MRRs. We focus on 39 general medical conditions to simplify the presentation of results, which cover 10 broad categories: circulatory, endocrine, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, urogenital, musculoskeletal, hematologic, mental, and neurologic conditions and cancer. A total of 3,676,694 males and 3,701,904 females were followed up for 101.7 million person-years. During the 19-year follow-up period, 1,034,273 persons (14.0%) died. For 37 of the 39 selected medical conditions, mortality rates were larger and life expectancy shorter compared to the Danish general population. For these 37 disorders, MRRs ranged from 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09 to 1.10) for vision problems to 7.85 (7.77 to 7.93) for chronic liver disease, while LYLs ranged from 0.31 (0.14 to 0.47) years (approximately 16 weeks) for allergy to 17.05 (16.95 to 17.15) years for chronic liver disease. Adjustment for air pollution had very little impact on the estimates; however, a limitation of the study is the possibility that the association between the different disorders and mortality could be explained by other underlying factors associated with both the disorder and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we show estimates of incidence, age of onset, age of death, and mortality metrics (both MRRs and LYLs) for a comprehensive range of disorders. The interactive data visualization site (https://nbepi.com/atlas) allows more fine-grained analysis of the link between a range of disorders and key mortality estimates.

The cost of mental disorders in Denmark: a register-based study

The aim of the study was to undertake a detailed analysis of healthcare cost, public transfer payments, and income loss associated with a broad range of mental disorders in Denmark. Based on all persons living in Denmark, we identified those with a hospital diagnosis of one of 18 types of mental disorders and 10 age- and sex-matched controls per case. For each mental disorder, the outcomes were nationwide totals, cost per case, and cost per capita, investigated by sex, age strata, and the number of years after diagnosis. We found a substantial annual income loss of 5 billion Euros and excess healthcare cost of 1 billion Euros for persons with any mental disorder. Each mental disorder was associated with an income loss, excess healthcare cost, and excess public transfer payments compared to matched controls. An interactive data visualisation site with summary data is available at https://nbepi.com/cost .

Mortality Associated With Mental Disorders and Comorbid General Medical Conditions

IMPORTANCE

Premature mortality has been observed among people with mental disorders. Comorbid general medical conditions contribute substantially to this reduction in life expectancy.

OBJECTIVE

To provide an analysis of mortality associated with comorbidity between a broad range of mental disorders and general medical conditions.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Population-based cohort study of 5 946 800 individuals born in Denmark from 1900 to 2015 and residing in the country at the start of follow-up (January 1, 2000, or their date of birth, whichever occurred later).

EXPOSURES

Danish health registers were used to identify people with mental disorders and general medical conditions.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Considering pairs of mental disorders and general medical conditions, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) and differences in life expectancy (ie, life-years lost) to assess the association of mortality with both disorders of interest compared with the mental disorder of interest, the general medical condition of interest, and neither disorder of interest.

RESULTS

The study population comprised 2 961 397 males and 2 985 403 females, with a median (IQR) age of 32.0 years (7.3-52.9) at start of follow-up and 48.9 years (42.5-68.8) at the end. Based on all pairs of comorbid mental disorders and general medical conditions, the mean MRR compared with people without these conditions was 5.90 (median, 4.94; IQR, 3.80-7.30), and the mean reduction of life expectancy compared with the general population was 11.35 years (median, 11.08; range, 5.27-23.53; IQR, 8.22-13.72). The association with general medical condition comorbidity in those with mental disorders varied by general medical condition; for example, the addition of a neurological condition for each of the mental disorders was associated with a mean MRR of 1.22, whereas for cancer, the mean MRR for all mental disorders was 4.07.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, shorter life expectancy was associated with comorbid mental disorders and general medical conditions compared with the entire population and also when compared with patients who had either mental disorders only or general medical conditions only. Prevention and early detection of comorbidities could reduce premature mortality in patients with mental disorders.

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time.

Methods

Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated.

Findings

In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 - 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432-912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9-412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (-29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (-27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs.

Interpretation

Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people.

Funding

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comorbidity between eating disorders and psychiatric disorders

OBJECTIVE

Previous literature has established an increased risk of eating disorders among individuals with other psychiatric disorders and vice versa. However, often studies have focused on eating disorders as a single diagnostic entity and/or investigated selected psychiatric comorbidities. We conducted a comprehensive study, exploring bidirectional associations between different types of eating disorders and broad groups of all other psychiatric disorders, to identify patterns of comorbidity.

METHOD

We included all people born in Denmark 1963-2010. We collected information on eating disorders and considered the risk of subsequent psychiatric disorders using Cox-proportional hazards regression. Absolute risks were calculated using competing risks survival analyses. We also considered prior psychiatric disorders and subsequent eating disorders.

RESULTS

An increased risk was seen for almost all disorder pairs of diagnoses evaluated. Following an anorexia nervosa (AN) diagnosis, the median hazard ratio for the different subsequent psychiatric disorders was 3.80 (range 2.48-6.15); following an other eating disorder (OED) diagnosis, it was 3.16 (range 2.05-5.14). After different psychiatric disorder diagnoses, the median hazard ratio was 2.66 for later AN (range 1.21-5.31), and 2.51 for later OED (range 1.25-4.10). Absolute risk of eating disorders was also higher among those with other psychiatric disorders than those without.

DISCUSSION

In this broad examination, we identified bidirectional increases in risk of comorbidity for those with both eating disorder diagnoses and psychiatric disorder diagnoses. Although our findings indicate different patterns of comorbidity between eating disorders, these variations were generally small.

Mapping genomic loci implicates genes and synaptic biology in schizophrenia

Schizophrenia has a heritability of 60-80%1, much of which is attributable to common risk alleles. Here, in a two-stage genome-wide association study of up to 76,755 individuals with schizophrenia and 243,649 control individuals, we report common variant associations at 287 distinct genomic loci. Associations were concentrated in genes that are expressed in excitatory and inhibitory neurons of the central nervous system, but not in other tissues or cell types. Using fine-mapping and functional genomic data, we identify 120 genes (106 protein-coding) that are likely to underpin associations at some of these loci, including 16 genes with credible causal non-synonymous or untranslated region variation. We also implicate fundamental processes related to neuronal function, including synaptic organization, differentiation and transmission. Fine-mapped candidates were enriched for genes associated with rare disruptive coding variants in people with schizophrenia, including the glutamate receptor subunit GRIN2A and transcription factor SP4, and were also enriched for genes implicated by such variants in neurodevelopmental disorders. We identify biological processes relevant to schizophrenia pathophysiology; show convergence of common and rare variant associations in schizophrenia and neurodevelopmental disorders; and provide a resource of prioritized genes and variants to advance mechanistic studies.

Accounting for age of onset and family history improves power in genome-wide association studies

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have revolutionized human genetics, allowing researchers to identify thousands of disease-related genes and possible drug targets. However, case-control status does not account for the fact that not all controls may have lived through their period of risk for the disorder of interest. This can be quantified by examining the age-of-onset distribution and the age of the controls or the age of onset for cases. The age-of-onset distribution may also depend on information such as sex and birth year. In addition, family history is not routinely included in the assessment of control status. Here, we present LT-FH++, an extension of the liability threshold model conditioned on family history (LT-FH), which jointly accounts for age of onset and sex as well as family history. Using simulations, we show that, when family history and the age-of-onset distribution are available, the proposed approach yields statistically significant power gains over LT-FH and large power gains over genome-wide association study by proxy (GWAX). We applied our method to four psychiatric disorders available in the iPSYCH data and to mortality in the UK Biobank and found 20 genome-wide significant associations with LT-FH++, compared to ten for LT-FH and eight for a standard case-control GWAS. As more genetic data with linked electronic health records become available to researchers, we expect methods that account for additional health information, such as LT-FH++, to become even more beneficial.

Sensitive and Robust LC-MS/MS Assay to Quantify 25-Hydroxyvitamin D in Leftover Protein Extract from Dried Blood Spots

Neonatal dried blood spots (DBS) provide a remarkable resource for biobanks. These microsamples can provide information related to the genetic correlates of disease and can be used to quantify a range of analytes, such as proteins and small molecules. However, after routine neonatal screening, the amount of DBS sample available is limited. To optimize the use of these samples, there is a need for sensitive assays which are integrated across different analytic platforms. For example, after DNA extraction, protein extracts are available for additional analyses. We describe a sensitive and robust LC-MS/MS method for 25-hydroxyvitamin D₂ and 25-hydroxyvitamin D₃ optimized for leftover protein extracts from DBS, which has excellent recovery, precision, and accuracy.

Factors that contribute to urban-rural gradients in risk of schizophrenia: Comparing Danish and Western Australian registers

INTRODUCTION

An association between schizophrenia and urbanicity has long been observed, with studies in many countries, including several from Denmark, reporting that individuals born/raised in densely populated urban settings have an increased risk of developing schizophrenia compared to those born/raised in rural settings. However, these findings have not been replicated in all studies. In particular, a Western Australian study showed a gradient in the opposite direction which disappeared after adjustment for covariates. Given the different findings for Denmark and Western Australia, our aim was to investigate the relationship between schizophrenia and urbanicity in these two regions to determine which factors may be influencing the relationship.

METHODS

We used population-based cohorts of children born alive between 1980 and 2001 in Western Australia (N = 428,784) and Denmark (N = 1,357,874). Children were categorised according to the level of urbanicity of their mother's residence at time of birth and followed-up through to 30 June 2015. Linkage to State-based registers provided information on schizophrenia diagnosis and a range of covariates. Rates of being diagnosed with schizophrenia for each category of urbanicity were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for covariates.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 1618 (0.4%) children in Western Australia and 11,875 (0.9%) children in Denmark were diagnosed with schizophrenia. In Western Australia, those born in the most remote areas did not experience lower rates of schizophrenia than those born in the most urban areas (hazard ratio = 1.02 [95% confidence interval: 0.81, 1.29]), unlike their Danish counterparts (hazard ratio = 0.62 [95% confidence interval: 0.58, 0.66]). However, when the Western Australian cohort was restricted to children of non-Aboriginal Indigenous status, results were consistent with Danish findings (hazard ratio = 0.46 [95% confidence interval: 0.29, 0.72]).

DISCUSSION

Our study highlights the potential for disadvantaged subgroups to mask the contribution of urban-related risk factors to risk of schizophrenia and the importance of stratified analysis in such cases.

Developmental Vitamin D Deficiency in Pregnant Rats Does Not Induce Preeclampsia

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy disorder characterized by hypertension. Epidemiological studies have associated preeclampsia with an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders in offspring, such as autism and schizophrenia. Preeclampsia has also been linked with maternal vitamin D deficiency, another candidate risk factor also associated with autism. Our laboratory has established a gestational vitamin-D-deficient rat model that shows consistent and robust behavioural phenotypes associated with autism- and schizophrenia-related animal models. Therefore, we explored here whether this model also produces preeclampsia as a possible mediator of behavioural phenotypes in offspring. We showed that gestational vitamin D deficiency was not associated with maternal blood pressure or proteinuria during late gestation. Maternal and placental angiogenic and vasculogenic factors were also not affected by a vitamin-D-deficient diet. We further showed that exposure to low vitamin D levels did not expose the placenta to oxidative stress. Overall, gestational vitamin D deficiency in our rat model was not associated with preeclampsia-related features, suggesting that well-described behavioural phenotypes in offspring born to vitamin-D-deficient rat dams are unlikely to be mediated via a preeclampsia-related mechanism.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Bidirectional associations between treatment-resistant depression and general medical conditions

Depression is associated with general medical conditions (GMCs), but it is not known if treatment-resistant depression (TRD) affects GMC risk and vice versa. We estimated bidirectional associations between TRD and GMCs (prior and subsequent). All individuals aged 18-69 years, born and living in Denmark, with a first-time prescription for an antidepressant between 2005 and 2012 were identified in the Danish Prescription Registry (N = 154,513). TRD was defined as at least two shifts in treatment regimes. For prior GMCs, we estimated odds ratios (ORs) using conditional logistic regression comparing TRD patients with matched non-TRD controls adjusted for other GMCs and number of other GMCs. For subsequent GMCs, we used Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) in TRD vs. non-TRD patients adjusted for age at first prescription, calendar time, other GMCs and number of other GMCs. Patients with TRD had higher prevalence of prior GMCs related to the immune or neurological systems; musculoskeletal disorders (women aOR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.26-1.46, men aOR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.19-1.42) and migraine (women aOR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.09-1.36, men aOR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.00-1.56). Subsequent GMCs were related to a broader spectrum; cardiovascular (women aHR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.32-1.54, men aHR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.19-1.43), endocrine (women aHR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.37-1.67, men aHR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.07-1.44), and neurological disorders (women aHR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.13-1.35, men aHR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.07-1.34). Our study presents a broad overview of comorbid medical conditions in patients with TRD and further studies are needed to explore the associations in detail.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

307Association between patterns of comorbid mental disorders and mortality-related estimates. A Danish register-based cohort study

Background

Comorbidity within mental disorders is common, and people with two or more types of mental disorders have shorter life expectancy compared to those with exactly one type. The aims of this study were to: (a) describe the prevalence of combinations of mental disorders; and (b) estimate the excess mortality for each of these combinations.

Methods

We conducted a population-based cohort study including all 7,505,576 persons living in Denmark in 1995-2016. Using national registers, we described the most common combinations of mental disorders and investigated excess mortality by means of mortality rate ratios (MRRs) and differences in life expectancy.

Results

At the end of the 22-year observation, 6.2% individuals were diagnosed with exactly one disorder, and 5.3% with two or more types. People with any combination of disorders had higher mortality rates than those without any diagnosis (MRRs ranging from 1.10 [95% CI 0.67 – 1.84] to 5.97 [95% CI 5.52 – 6.45]) and shorter life expectancies compared to the general population (estimates ranging from 5.06 years [95% CI 5.01 – 5.11] to 17.46 years [95% CI 16.86 – 18.03]).

Conclusions

Mood disorders and neurotic disorders commonly co-occur, and contribute to many different sets of comorbid mental disorders. The association between mental disorders comorbidity and mortality revealed the prominent role of substance use disorders.

Key messages

Our study provides prevalence estimates of the most common sets of mental disorders. In light of the substantial contribution of substance use disorders to premature mortality, efforts related to the ‘primary prevention of secondary comorbidity’ warrant added scrutiny.