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Asaye MM, Gelaye KA, Matebe YH, Lindgren H, Erlandsson K. Experience and perceptions of healthcare providers on clinical management and care of near-miss infants: a qualitative content analysis. BMC Health Serv Res 2023; 23:1403. [PMID: 38093259 PMCID: PMC10720054 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-023-10097-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2022] [Accepted: 09/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Neonatal Near Miss (NNM) refers to neonates with severe complications who almost died but survived immediately after birth. In Ethiopia, the prevalence of NNM has been assessed using a validated Neonatal Near-Miss Assessment Scale. However, understanding the experiences and perceptions of healthcare providers in the clinical management and care of NNM infants remains unexplored. The aim was to investigate the determinants contributing to the survival of neonatal near-miss babies and to identify any barriers encountered, as reported by the experiences of healthcare providers in public hospitals of Amhara Regional State, northwest Ethiopia. METHODS Semi structured interviews were used to collect data from 25 midwives, nurses, and pediatricians with at least six months of prior experience in one of the labor wards or neonatal intensive care units at one of the four public health hospitals in the Amhara Regional state of northwest Ethiopia included in a large intervention study assessing a NNM scale. Purposeful sampling was used, selecting participants based on their experiences related to the aim of this study. The participants had a varying level of education and years of experience to care for NNM infants. The average age of the healthcare providers was 31 years, with 7 years of work experience. The transcripts of the interviews with the healthcare providers were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS The experience and perceptions of healthcare providers was described in the main category "A sense of hopelessness when caring for the baby" capturing a broader emotional and professional aspect, while the subcategories "Unclear responsibilities discharging one's mission", "Provision of kangaroo mother care" and "Quick action required at birth" are more specific and practical. Healthcare providers perceived a sense of hopelessness when caring for the NNM infant, particularly providing Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) and quick actions when required at birth to save the life of the infant. CONCLUSION Unclear responsibilities and a sense of hopelessness could have acted as barriers, hindering the ability of healthcare providers to fulfill their mission of taking swift actions and providing KMC to NNM infants, thus impacting their ability to save the lives of these infants. Healthcare providers' and parents' attitudes must be changed towards hope rather than hopelessness when caring for NNM infants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengstu Melkamu Asaye
- Department of Women and Family Health, School of Midwifery, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
| | - Kassahun Alemu Gelaye
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Yohannes Hailu Matebe
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, School of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Helena Lindgren
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden
- Sofiahemmet University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Kerstin Erlandsson
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, Solna, Sweden.
- School of Health and Welfare, Karolinska Institute, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden.
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Källberg AS, Berg LM, Skogli S, Bjurbo C, Muntlin Å, Ehrenberg A. Prevalence of frailty and associated factors in older adults seeking care at Swedish emergency departments. BMC Geriatr 2023; 23:798. [PMID: 38049748 PMCID: PMC10694934 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-023-04545-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Internationally, prolonged length of stay for older adults in the emergency department (ED) is associated with increased risk of in-hospital adverse events. In Sweden patients 65 years and older account for 35% of emergency visits, and according to consensus from an international expert group, all persons over 70 should be screened for frailty. This is not routinely done in Swedish EDs, and therefore, knowledge about prevalence, characteristics and clinical outcomes associated with frailty is limited. AIM To describe the prevalence of frailty and associated factors in older adults seeking care at Swedish EDs. METHODS The study has a cross-sectional design. Data was collected at three hospital-based EDs, varying in level and size of setting, for one month. Patients age 70 and older presenting at the EDs and agreed to participate were screened for frailty using the FRail Elderly Support researcH group (FRESH) instrument. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics to assess the distribution of patient characteristics and clinical outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression was used to model the association between frailty and demographic characteristics, and Cox regression was used to model the association between frailty and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 3101 patients were eligible for inclusion; of these, 984 (32%) were included and screened for frailty. Of the final sample, 57.3% were assessed as frail. Characteristics significantly associated with frailty were living in a residential care facility, age (> 80 years), being a woman and arriving with emergency medical service (EMS). There was a significant association between frailty and admittance to in-hospital care. CONCLUSION Our study shows a high prevalence of frailty in older people. Factors associated with frailty were living in a residential care facility, age ≥ 80 years, being a woman and arriving with EMS to the ED and being admitted to in-hospital care. Frailty screening should be incorporated in the triage system to identify frail patients who need tailored interventions. More studies using the FRESH instrument are needed to further confirm our findings and to develop the methods for screening for frailty in the ED.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ann-Sofie Källberg
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, SE-791 88, Sweden.
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Falun Hospital and Centre for Clinical Research Dalarna, Nissers väg 3, Falun, SE-791 82, Sweden.
| | - Lena M Berg
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, SE-791 88, Sweden
| | - Sara Skogli
- Department of Internal Medicine, Falun Hospital, Falun, SE-791 82, Sweden
| | - Charlotte Bjurbo
- Department of Emergency Care and Internal Medicine, Uppsala University Hospital, entrance 40, level 5, Uppsala, SE-751 85, Sweden
| | - Åsa Muntlin
- Department of Emergency Care and Internal Medicine, Uppsala University Hospital, entrance 40, level 5, Uppsala, SE-751 85, Sweden
- Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala University Hospital, entrance 40, level 5, Uppsala, SE-751 85, Sweden
| | - Anna Ehrenberg
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, SE-791 88, Sweden
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Gelin M, Gesar B, Källberg AS, Ehrenberg A, Gustavsson C. Introducing a triage and Nurse on Call model in primary health care - a focus group study of health care staff's experiences. BMC Health Serv Res 2023; 23:1299. [PMID: 38001493 PMCID: PMC10675943 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-023-10300-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 11/26/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND With the increased demand for health care services and with simultaneous staff shortages, new work models are needed in primary health care. In November 2015, a Swedish primary health care centre introduced a work model consisting of a structured patient sorting system with triage and Nurse on Call. The aim of this study was to describe the staff's experiences of introducing the triage and Nurse on Call model at the primary health care centre. METHODS Five focus group discussions with staff (n = 39) were conducted 4 years after the introduction of the work model. Groups were divided by profession: medical secretaries, nursing assistants, physicians, primary health care nurses, and registered nurses. The transcribed text from the discussions was analysed using qualitative inductive content analysis. RESULTS The analysis generated one overarching theme: The introduction of triage and Nurse on Call addresses changed preconditions in primary health care, but the work culture, organization, and acquisition of new knowledge are lagging behind. The overarching theme had five categories: (1) Changed preconditions in primary health care motivate new work models; (2) The triage and Nurse on Call model improves teamwork and may increase the quality of care; (3) Unclear purpose and vague leadership make introducing the work model difficult; (4) Difficulties to adopt the work model as it challenges professional autonomy; and (5) The triage and Nurse on Call model requires more knowledge and competence from nurses in primary health care. CONCLUSIONS This study contributes with knowledge about implications of a new work model in primary health care from the perspective of health care staff. The work model using triage and Nurse on Call in primary health care was perceived by participants to increase availability and optimize the use of resources. However, before introduction of new work models, it is important to identify barriers to and facilitators for successful improvements in the local health care context. Additional education for the health care staff is important if the transition is to be successful. Complementary skills and teamwork, supported by a facilitator seems important to ensure a well-prepared workforce.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Gelin
- Center for Clinical Research Dalarna, Uppsala University, Nissers väg 3, SE-79182, Falun, Sweden.
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, SE-79188, Sweden.
| | - Berit Gesar
- Center for Clinical Research Dalarna, Uppsala University, Nissers väg 3, SE-79182, Falun, Sweden
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, SE-79188, Sweden
- Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Ann-Sofie Källberg
- Center for Clinical Research Dalarna, Uppsala University, Nissers väg 3, SE-79182, Falun, Sweden
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, SE-79188, Sweden
| | - Anna Ehrenberg
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, SE-79188, Sweden
| | - Catharina Gustavsson
- Center for Clinical Research Dalarna, Uppsala University, Nissers väg 3, SE-79182, Falun, Sweden
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, SE-79188, Sweden
- Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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Gyllensten H, Tistad M, Fridberg H, Wallin L. Analysis on personnel costs and working time for implementing a more person-centred care approach: a case study with embedded units in a Swedish region. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e073829. [PMID: 37821128 PMCID: PMC10582865 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-073829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Our aim was to describe the time and costs used during the implementation of a more person-centred care (PCC) approach as part of ordinary practice. DESIGN A case study with embedded units. SETTING Region Dalarna, Sweden. PARTICIPANTS The Department for Development (DD) staff who provided a central support function in the implementation and six healthcare units: nephrology, two geriatric care and rehabilitation units, two psychiatry units and primary care. INTERVENTIONS More PCC. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES Working days and related salary costs reported by categories indicating costs for implementation strategies, service delivery, and research/development costs. RESULTS The healthcare units logged on average 5.5 working days per staff member. In the healthcare units, 6%-57% of the time reported was used for implementation strategies, 40%-90% for service delivery and 2%-12% for research/development. Of the time reported by the DD, 88% was assigned to implementation strategies. Costs associated with reported time indicated 23% of costs for this implementation occurred in the DD. Using the budgeted cost, this proportion increased to 48%. The budget for the DD corresponded to SEK 2.30 per citizen per year and 0.009% of the total healthcare budget of the region. CONCLUSIONS The study found that a large part of resources used for this implementation of more PCC occurred in the DD, although at least half of the costs occurred in the healthcare units. Moreover, the cost of providing a central support function corresponds to a tiny proportion of the total health budget.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hanna Gyllensten
- Institute of Health and Care Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- University of Gothenburg Centre for Person-Centred Care, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Malin Tistad
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden
- Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Helena Fridberg
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden
| | - Lars Wallin
- Institute of Health and Care Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden
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Åberg AC, Petersson JR, Giedraitis V, McKee KJ, Rosendahl E, Halvorsen K, Berglund L. Prediction of conversion to dementia disorders based on timed up and go dual-task test verbal and motor outcomes: a five-year prospective memory-clinic-based study. BMC Geriatr 2023; 23:535. [PMID: 37660032 PMCID: PMC10475186 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-023-04262-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND While assessment tools can increase the detection of cognitive impairment, there is currently insufficient evidence regarding clinical outcomes based on screening for cognitive impairment in older adults. METHODS The study purpose was to investigate whether Timed Up and Go dual-task test (TUGdt) results, based on TUG combined with two different verbal tasks (name different animals, TUGdt-NA, and recite months in reverse order, TUGdt-MB), predicted dementia incidence over a period of five years among patients (N = 186, mean = 70.7 years; 45.7% female) diagnosed with Subjective Cognitive Impairment (SCI) and Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) following assessment at two memory clinics. Associations between TUG parameters and dementia incidence were examined in Cox regression models. RESULTS During follow-up time (median (range) 3.7 (0.1-6.1) years) 98 participants converted to dementia. Novel findings indicated that the TUGdt parameter words/time, after adjustment for age, gender, and education, can be used for the prediction of conversion to dementia in participants with SCI or MCI over a period of five years. Among the TUG-related parameters investigated, words/time showed the best predictive capacity, while time scores of TUG and TUGdt as well as TUGdt cost did not produce significant predictive results. Results further showed that the step parameter step length during TUGdt predicts conversion to dementia before adjustment for age, gender, and education. Optimal TUGdt cutoffs for predicting dementia at 2- and 4-year follow-up based on words/time were calculated. The sensitivity of the TUGdt cutoffs was high at 2-year follow-up: TUGdt-NA words/time, 0.79; TUGdt-MB words/time, 0.71; reducing respectively to 0.64 and 0.65 at 4-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS TUGdt words/time parameters have potential as cost-efficient tools for conversion-to-dementia risk assessment, useful for research and clinical purposes. These parameters may be able to bridge the gap of insufficient evidence for such clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05893524: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS gov/study/NCT05893524?id=NCT05893524&rank=1 .
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Cristina Åberg
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, 791 88, Falun, Sweden.
- Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Geriatrics, Uppsala Universit, y, Box 564, 52 37, UPPSALA, Sweden.
| | - Johanna R Petersson
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, 791 88, Falun, Sweden
- Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Geriatrics, Uppsala Universit, y, Box 564, 52 37, UPPSALA, Sweden
| | - Vilmantas Giedraitis
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, 791 88, Falun, Sweden
- Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Geriatrics, Uppsala Universit, y, Box 564, 52 37, UPPSALA, Sweden
| | - Kevin J McKee
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, 791 88, Falun, Sweden
| | - Erik Rosendahl
- Department of Community Medicine and Rehabilitation, Physiotherapy, Umeå University, 90187, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Kjartan Halvorsen
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, 791 88, Falun, Sweden
- Department of Mechatronics, School of Engineering and Sciences, Campus Estado de Mexico, Tecnologico de Monterrey, Atizapan, Mexico, Carretera Lago de Guadalupe Km 3.5, 52926, Atizapan, Estado de Mexico, Mexico
| | - Lars Berglund
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, 791 88, Falun, Sweden
- Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Geriatrics, Uppsala Universit, y, Box 564, 52 37, UPPSALA, Sweden
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Nyassi S, Abdi YA, Minto J, Osman F. "Helping Mentally Ill, a Reward Both in this Life and After": A Qualitative Study Among Community Health Professionals in Somaliland. Community Ment Health J 2023; 59:1051-1063. [PMID: 36602699 PMCID: PMC10289922 DOI: 10.1007/s10597-022-01085-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
This study aimed to describe the experiences of community mental health workers, predominantly female, nurses and doctors providing community-based mental health services in Borama, Somaliland. A qualitative explorative study using focus group discussions was conducted. Data were collected from three focus group discussions with 22 female community health workers, two medical doctors, and two registered nurses and analyzed using content analysis with an inductive approach. Three main categories were identified from the analysis: (1) bridging the mental health gap in the community; (2) working in a constrained situation; and (3) being altruistic. Overall, the community mental health workers felt that their role was to bridge the mental health gap in the community. They described their work as a rewarding and motivated them to continue despite challenges and improving community healthcare workers' work conditions and providing resources in mental health services will contribute to strengthening mental health services in Somaliland.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sungkutu Nyassi
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, 79188 Falun, Sweden
| | - Yakoub Aden Abdi
- College of Health Science, Amoud University, Amoud Valley, Borama, Somaliland Somalia
| | - John Minto
- University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, Scotland
| | - Fatumo Osman
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, 79188 Falun, Sweden
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Erlandsson K, Jha P, Sharma B, Bogren M. Contextual factors influencing the implementation of a new midwife education programme in India: a qualitative study. BMC Med Educ 2022; 22:755. [PMID: 36333775 PMCID: PMC9636670 DOI: 10.1186/s12909-022-03814-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2022] [Accepted: 10/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The Indian Government has committed to educate 90,000 midwives in accordance with international norms. This goal is critical as midwives provide evidence-based, high-quality midwifery care. There is a need to explore the contextual factors influencing this new midwifery education programme. Hence, the aim of this study is to explore contextual factors influencing the implementation of the national midwifery education programme for midwifery educators and the future Nurse Practitioners in Midwifery (NPMs) in India. A qualitative research design was used, with data collected through focus group discussions (n = 8) with a total of 27 participants representing seven national and international organisations supporting the Indian Government in its midwifery initiative. Transcribed interviews were analysed using content analysis. This study on contextual factors influencing the implementation of the new midwifery education programme in India showed that organisational and administrative processes are complex and the development of midwifery educators and nurse practitioners in midwifery needs to be fast tracked. The education of educators and future midwives in India, and elsewhere in similar settings, could benefit from efforts to simplify the organisational and administration processes and, in parallel, mobilize innovative teaching and learning approaches to bridge theory and practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kerstin Erlandsson
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden.
- Department for Women's and Children's health, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden.
| | - Paridhi Jha
- Foundation for Research in Health Systems, Bangalore, Karnataka, India
| | - Bharati Sharma
- Foundation for Research in Health Systems, Bangalore, Karnataka, India
- Indian Institute of Public Health Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
| | - Malin Bogren
- Institute of Health and Care Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
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Dahlberg L, McKee KJ, Lennartsson C, Rehnberg J. A social exclusion perspective on loneliness in older adults in the Nordic countries. Eur J Ageing 2022; 19:175-188. [PMID: 35663913 PMCID: PMC9156591 DOI: 10.1007/s10433-022-00692-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Several factors associated with loneliness are also considered indicators of social exclusion. While loneliness has been proposed as an outcome of social exclusion, there is limited empirical evidence of a link. This study examines the associations between social exclusion indicators and loneliness in older adults (60+ years) in four Nordic countries. Data from four waves of the European Social Survey were pooled, providing a total of 7755 respondents (Denmark n = 1647; Finland n = 2501, Norway n = 1540; Sweden n = 2067). Measures of loneliness, demographic characteristics, health, and eight indicators of social exclusion were selected from the survey for analysis. Country-specific and total sample hierarchical logistic regression models of loneliness were developed. Significant model improvement occurred for all models after social exclusion indicators were added to models containing only demographic and health variables. Country models explained between 15.1 (Finland) and 21.5% (Sweden) of the variance in loneliness. Lower frequency of social contacts and living alone compared to in a two-person household was associated with a higher probability of loneliness in all countries, while other indicators were associated with loneliness in specific countries: lower neighbourhood safety (Sweden and Denmark); income concern (Sweden and Finland); and no emotional support (Denmark, Finland, and Sweden). A robust relationship was apparent between indicators of social exclusion and loneliness with the direction of associations being highly consistent across countries, even if their strength and statistical significance varied. Social exclusion has considerable potential for understanding and addressing risk factors for loneliness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lena Dahlberg
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, 791 88 Falun, Sweden
- Aging Research Center, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Tomtebodavägen 18A, 171 65 Solna, Sweden
| | - Kevin J. McKee
- School of Health and Welfare, Dalarna University, 791 88 Falun, Sweden
| | - Carin Lennartsson
- Aging Research Center, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Tomtebodavägen 18A, 171 65 Solna, Sweden
- Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Johan Rehnberg
- Aging Research Center, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Tomtebodavägen 18A, 171 65 Solna, Sweden
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Zhao J, Han M, Wang Z, Wan B. Autoregressive count data modeling on mobility patterns to predict cases of COVID-19 infection. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 2022; 36:4185-4200. [PMID: 35765667 PMCID: PMC9223272 DOI: 10.1007/s00477-022-02255-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/18/2022] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
At the beginning of 2022 the global daily count of new cases of COVID-19 exceeded 3.2 million, a tripling of the historical peak value reported between the initial outbreak of the pandemic and the end of 2021. Aerosol transmission through interpersonal contact is the main cause of the disease's spread, although control measures have been put in place to reduce contact opportunities. Mobility pattern is a basic mechanism for understanding how people gather at a location and how long they stay there. Due to the inherent dependencies in disease transmission, models for associating mobility data with confirmed cases need to be individually designed for different regions and time periods. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive count data model under the framework of a generalized linear model to illustrate a process of model specification and selection. By evaluating a 14-day-ahead prediction from Sweden, the results showed that for a dense population region, using mobility data with a lag of 8 days is the most reliable way of predicting the number of confirmed cases in relative numbers at a high coverage rate. It is sufficient for both of the autoregressive terms, studied variable and conditional expectation, to take one day back. For sparsely populated regions, a lag of 10 days produced the lowest error in absolute value for the predictions, where weekly periodicity on the studied variable is recommended for use. Interventions were further included to identify the most relevant mobility categories. Statistical features were also presented to verify the model assumptions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Zhao
- School of Business Administration, Xi’an Eurasia University, Yanta District, Xi’an, China
| | - Mengjie Han
- School of Information and Engineering, Dalarna University, 79188 Falun, Sweden
| | - Zhenwu Wang
- Department of Computer Science and Technology, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, 100083 China
| | - Benting Wan
- School of Software and IoT Engineering, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, 330013 China
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Nowak C, Carlsson AC, Östgren CJ, Nyström FH, Alam M, Feldreich T, Sundström J, Carrero JJ, Leppert J, Hedberg P, Henriksen E, Cordeiro AC, Giedraitis V, Lind L, Ingelsson E, Fall T, Ärnlöv J. Multiplex proteomics for prediction of major cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes. Diabetologia 2018; 61:1748-1757. [PMID: 29796748 PMCID: PMC6061158 DOI: 10.1007/s00125-018-4641-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2018] [Accepted: 04/18/2018] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS Multiplex proteomics could improve understanding and risk prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in type 2 diabetes. This study assessed 80 cardiovascular and inflammatory proteins for biomarker discovery and prediction of MACE in type 2 diabetes. METHODS We combined data from six prospective epidemiological studies of 30-77-year-old individuals with type 2 diabetes in whom 80 circulating proteins were measured by proximity extension assay. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used in a discovery/replication design to identify biomarkers for incident MACE. We used gradient-boosted machine learning and lasso regularised Cox regression in a random 75% training subsample to assess whether adding proteins to risk factors included in the Swedish National Diabetes Register risk model would improve the prediction of MACE in the separate 25% test subsample. RESULTS Of 1211 adults with type 2 diabetes (32% women), 211 experienced a MACE over a mean (±SD) of 6.4 ± 2.3 years. We replicated associations (<5% false discovery rate) between risk of MACE and eight proteins: matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-12, IL-27 subunit α (IL-27a), kidney injury molecule (KIM)-1, fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-23, protein S100-A12, TNF receptor (TNFR)-1, TNFR-2 and TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor (TRAIL-R)2. Addition of the 80-protein assay to established risk factors improved discrimination in the separate test sample from 0.686 (95% CI 0.682, 0.689) to 0.748 (95% CI 0.746, 0.751). A sparse model of 20 added proteins achieved a C statistic of 0.747 (95% CI 0.653, 0.842) in the test sample. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION We identified eight protein biomarkers, four of which are novel, for risk of MACE in community residents with type 2 diabetes, and found improved risk prediction by combining multiplex proteomics with an established risk model. Multiprotein arrays could be useful in identifying individuals with type 2 diabetes who are at highest risk of a cardiovascular event.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christoph Nowak
- Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS), Karolinska Institutet, Alfred Nobels Allé 23, SE 14183, Huddinge, Sweden
| | - Axel C Carlsson
- Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS), Karolinska Institutet, Alfred Nobels Allé 23, SE 14183, Huddinge, Sweden
- Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Carl Johan Östgren
- Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
| | - Fredrik H Nyström
- Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
| | - Moudud Alam
- School of Technology and Business Studies/Statistics, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden
| | - Tobias Feldreich
- School of Health and Social Studies, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden
| | - Johan Sundström
- Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Juan-Jesus Carrero
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jerzy Leppert
- Centre for Clinical Research, Uppsala University, Västerås, Sweden
| | - Pär Hedberg
- Centre for Clinical Research, Uppsala University, Västerås, Sweden
| | - Egil Henriksen
- Centre for Clinical Research, Uppsala University, Västerås, Sweden
| | - Antonio C Cordeiro
- Department of Hypertension and Nephrology, Dante Pazzanese Institute of Cardiology, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Vilmantas Giedraitis
- Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Geriatrics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Lars Lind
- Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Erik Ingelsson
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Tove Fall
- Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Johan Ärnlöv
- Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS), Karolinska Institutet, Alfred Nobels Allé 23, SE 14183, Huddinge, Sweden.
- School of Health and Social Studies, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden.
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