Comparison of outcomes and characteristics of patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 and other community-acquired pneumonia based on propensity score matching

OBJECTIVE

To compare the similarities and differences between patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and those with other community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), utilizing propensity score matching (PSM), regarding hospitalization expenses, treatment options, and prognostic outcomes, aiming to inform the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19.

METHODS

Patients admitted to the ICU of the Third People's Hospital of Datong City, diagnosed with COVID-19 from December 2022 to February 2023, constituted the observation group, while those with other CAP admitted from January to November 2022 formed the control group. Basic information, clinical data at admission, and time from symptom onset to admission were matched using PSM.

RESULTS

A total of 70 patients were included in the COVID-19 group and 119 in the CAP group. The patients were matched by the propensity matching method, and 37 patients were included in each of the last two groups. After matching, COVID-19 had a higher failure rate than CAP, but the difference was not statistically significant (73% vs. 51%, p = 0.055). The utilization rate of antiviral drugs (40% vs. 11%, p = 0.003), γ-globulin (19% vs. 0%, p = 0.011) and prone position ventilation (PPV) (27% vs. 0%, p < 0.001) in patients with COVID-19 were higher than those in the CAP, and the differences were statistically significant. The total hospitalization cost of COVID-19 patients was lower than that of CAP patients, and the difference was statistically significant (27889.5 vs. 50175.9, p = 0.007). The hospital stay for COVID-19 patients was shorter than for CAP patients, but the difference was not statistically significant (10.9 vs. 16.6, p = 0.071).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that limited medical resources influenced patient outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Addressing substantial demands for ICU capacity and medications during this period could have potentially reduced the mortality rate among COVID-19 patients.

Serum Krebs von den Lungen-6 is associated with in-Hospital mortality of patients with severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Currently, no ideal biomarker can accurately stratify the risk of patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP). This study aimed to evaluate the role of serum Krebs von den Lungen-6 (sKL-6) in predicting in-hospital mortality in adults with SCAP.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, 249 severe pneumonia adult patients were recruited between 6 May 2021 to 30 April 2023 in Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. The sKL-6 level within 48 h of admission was measured, and the primary outcome assessed was in-hospital mortality. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Survival curves were plotted and subgroup analyses were conducted, stratified by relevant covariates.

RESULTS

A total of 249 patients were included in the study,with 124 patients having normal sKL-6 levels, and 125 patients having abnormal sKL-6 levels. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 28.9% (72 out of 249 patients). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the patients with abnormal sKL-6 levels had a higher risk of in-hospital mortality compared to those with normal sKL-6 levels, both in the total SCAP patient population (OR: 5.38, 95%CI: 2.41-12.01, P < 0.001) and the non-COVID-19 SCAP patients subgroup (OR: 8.12, 95%CI: 3.16-20.84, P < 0.001). Subgroup and interaction analyses confirmed the stability of the relationship between sKL-6 levels and in-hospital mortality(P for interaction > 0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that patients with abnormal sKL-6 levels had a higher in-hospital mortality rate than those with normal sKL-6 levels (P < 0.05). However, the results of restricted cubic spline plots(RCS) analysis demonstrated a nonlinear association between sKL-6 levels (as a continuous variable) and in-hospital mortality in patients with SCAP. Similar results were observed in non-COVID-19 SCAP patients. Furthermore, the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis revealed that sKL-6 had superior predictive performance compared to existing biomarkers (e.g., APACHE-II, SOFA, BUN/Cr, PCT, and D-dimer) for in-hospital mortality in non-COVID-19 SCAP patients.

CONCLUSION

sKL-6 is a practical and useful biomarker for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with SCAP.

Incidence and clinical outcomes of pneumonia in persons with down syndrome in the United States

BACKGROUND

Persons with Down syndrome (DS) experience an increased risk of pneumonia. We determined the incidence and outcomes of pneumonia and relationship to underlying comorbidities in persons with and without DS in the United States.

METHODS

This retrospective matched cohort study used de-identified administrative claims data from Optum. Persons with DS were matched 1:4 to persons without DS on age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Pneumonia episodes were analyzed for incidence, rate ratios and 95 % confidence intervals, clinical outcomes, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

During 1-year follow-up among 33796 persons with and 135184 without DS, the incidence of all-cause pneumonia (pneumonia) was substantially higher among people with DS than those without DS (12427 vs. 2531 episodes/100000 person-years; 4.7-5.7 fold increase). Persons with DS and pneumonia were more likely to be hospitalized (39.4 % vs. 13.9 %) or admitted to the ICU (16.8 % vs. 4.8 %). Mortality was higher 1 year after first pneumonia (5.7 % vs. 2.4 %; P < 0.0001). Results were similar for episodes of pneumococcal pneumonia. Specific comorbidities were associated with pneumonia, particularly heart disease in children and neurologic disease in adults, which only partially mediated the effect of DS on pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

Among persons with DS, incidence of pneumonia and associated hospitalizations were increased; mortality among those with pneumonia was comparable at 30 days, but higher at 1 year. DS should be considered an independent risk condition for pneumonia.

Hydrocortisone in Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Whether the antiinflammatory and immunomodulatory effects of glucocorticoids may decrease mortality among patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia is unclear.

METHODS

In this phase 3, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial, we assigned adults who had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for severe community-acquired pneumonia to receive intravenous hydrocortisone (200 mg daily for either 4 or 7 days as determined by clinical improvement, followed by tapering for a total of 8 or 14 days) or to receive placebo. All the patients received standard therapy, including antibiotics and supportive care. The primary outcome was death at 28 days.

RESULTS

A total of 800 patients had undergone randomization when the trial was stopped after the second planned interim analysis. Data from 795 patients were analyzed. By day 28, death had occurred in 25 of 400 patients (6.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.9 to 8.6) in the hydrocortisone group and in 47 of 395 patients (11.9%; 95% CI, 8.7 to 15.1) in the placebo group (absolute difference, -5.6 percentage points; 95% CI, -9.6 to -1.7; P = 0.006). Among the patients who were not undergoing mechanical ventilation at baseline, endotracheal intubation was performed in 40 of 222 (18.0%) in the hydrocortisone group and in 65 of 220 (29.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.86). Among the patients who were not receiving vasopressors at baseline, such therapy was initiated by day 28 in 55 of 359 (15.3%) of the hydrocortisone group and in 86 of 344 (25.0%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.82). The frequencies of hospital-acquired infections and gastrointestinal bleeding were similar in the two groups; patients in the hydrocortisone group received higher daily doses of insulin during the first week of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia being treated in the ICU, those who received hydrocortisone had a lower risk of death by day 28 than those who received placebo. (Funded by the French Ministry of Health; CAPE COD ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02517489.).

Predictors of in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients and the role of telemetry in an internal medicine ward during the third phase of the pandemic

OBJECTIVE

The first pandemic phase of COVID-19 in Italy was characterized by high in-hospital mortality ranging from 23% to 38%. During the third pandemic phase there has been an improvement in the management and treatment of COVID-19, so mortality and predictors may have changed. A prospective study was planned to identify predictors of mortality during the third pandemic phase.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From 15 December 2020 to 15 May 2021, 208 patients were hospitalized (median age: 64 years; males: 58.6%); 83% had a median of 2 (IQR,1-4) comorbidities; pneumonia was present in 89.8%. Patients were monitored remotely for respiratory function and ECG trace for 24 hours/day. Management and treatment were done following the timing and dosage recommended by international guidelines.

RESULTS

79.2% of patients necessitated O2-therapy. ARDS was present in 46.1% of patients and 45.4% received non-invasive ventilation and 11.1% required ICU treatment. 38% developed arrhythmias which were identified early by telemetry and promptly treated. The in-hospital mortality rate was 10%. At multivariate analysis independent predictors of mortality were: older age (R-R for≥70 years: 5.44), number of comorbidities ≥3 (R-R 2.72), eGFR ≤60 ml/min (RR 2.91), high d-Dimer (R-R for≥1,000 ng/ml:7.53), and low PaO2/FiO2 (R-R for <200: 3.21).

CONCLUSIONS

Management and treatment adherence to recommendations, use of telemetry, and no overcrowding appear to reduce mortality. Advanced age, number of comorbidities, severe renal failure, high d-Dimer and low P/F remain predictors of poor outcome. The data help to identify current high-risk COVID-19 patients in whom management has yet to be optimized, who require the greatest therapeutic effort, and subjects in whom vaccination is mandatory.

Integrated Sustainable childhood Pneumonia and Infectious disease Reduction in Nigeria (INSPIRING) through whole system strengthening in Jigawa, Nigeria: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Child mortality remains unacceptably high, with Northern Nigeria reporting some of the highest rates globally (e.g. 192/1000 live births in Jigawa State). Coverage of key protect and prevent interventions, such as vaccination and clean cooking fuel use, is low. Additionally, knowledge, care-seeking and health system factors are poor. Therefore, a whole systems approach is needed for sustainable reductions in child mortality.

METHODS

This is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with integrated process and economic evaluations, conducted from January 2021 to September 2022. The trial will be conducted in Kiyawa Local Government Area, Jigawa State, Nigeria, with an estimated population of 230,000. Clusters are defined as primary government health facility catchment areas (n = 33). The 33 clusters will be randomly allocated (1:1) in a public ceremony, and 32 clusters included in the impact evaluation. The trial will evaluate a locally adapted 'whole systems strengthening' package of three evidence-based methods: community men's and women's groups, Partnership Defined Quality Scorecard and healthcare worker training, mentorship and provision of basic essential equipment and commodities. The primary outcome is mortality of children aged 7 days to 59 months. Mortality will be recorded prospectively using a cohort design, and secondary outcomes measured through baseline and endline cross-sectional surveys. Assuming the following, we will have a minimum detectable effect size of 30%: (a) baseline mortality of 100 per 1000 livebirths, (b) 4480 compounds with 3 eligible children per compound, (c) 80% power, (d) 5% significance, (e) intra-cluster correlation of 0.007 and (f) coefficient of variance of cluster size of 0.74. Analysis will be by intention-to-treat, comparing intervention and control clusters, adjusting for compound and trial clustering.

DISCUSSION

This study will provide robust evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based participatory learning and action, with integrated health system strengthening and accountability mechanisms, to reduce child mortality. The ethnographic process evaluation will allow for a rich understanding of how the intervention works in this context. However, we encountered a key challenge in calculating the sample size, given the lack of timely and reliable mortality data and the uncertain impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN 39213655 . Registered on 11 December 2019.

Matrix Metalloproteinase 3: a Novel Effective Biomarker for Predicting the Mortality and the Severity of Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Matrix metalloproteinase 3 (MMP3) is known as an inflammatory factor; however, the effectiveness of MMP3 for diagnosis of pneumonia and predicting outcomes is unclear. We evaluated the diagnostic and prognostic value of serum MMP3 in patients with pneumonia.

METHODS

One hundred and eighty-five patients with pneumonia and 52 healthy controls were enrolled. Serum MMP3, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), interleukin 6 (IL-6), procalcitonin (PCT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations were measured at admission. The patients were followed up for 90 days.

RESULTS

Compared with healthy controls, the concentrations of MMP3, NGAL, and IL-6 at admission were significantly higher in patients with pneumonia (p < 0.05). The median concentrations of MMP3, NGAL, and IL-6 were significantly higher in the patients with severe pneumonia than the group of non-severe pneumonia (p < 0.05). Compared with PCT (AUC = 0.778), CRP (AUC = 0.719), and IL-6 (AUC = 0.726), MMP3 (AUC = 0.846) and NGAL (AUC = 0.826) had significantly higher AUC values for distinguishing the severity of pneumonia. The ROC of the combination of MMP3, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and D-dimer showed the best performance of predicting pneumonia severity, which gave an AUC of 0.956. The AUC of MMP3 (0.950) for predicting mortality was highest, followed by NLR (AUC = 0.945), D-dimer (AUC = 0.938), and NGAL (AUC = 0.913). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed MMP3, D-dimer, and NLR were the independent predictors of hospital mortality in patients with pneumonia. Patients with MMP3 concentration > 124.3 ng/mL had a significantly higher risk of mortality (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

MMP3 is a valuable biomarker in assessment of the severity and prediction of mortality in patients with pneumonia.

E-cigarette-associated Severe Pneumonia in Korea Using Data Linkage between the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES, 2013-2019) and the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) Claims Database

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the association between e-cigarette (EC) use and development of acute severe pneumonia in the Korean population using a national database.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis using linkage of data between the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) and the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) administrative claims database. The primary endpoint of this study was development of severe pneumonia requiring hospital admission according to EC use during the study period. The secondary endpoints were in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, ventilator care, and days of hospital stay.

RESULTS

The final analysis included 28,950 individuals, of which 578 (2.0%) were EC users. EC users were younger and more often male than non-EC users. The EC users showed higher level of education and household income and had fewer comorbidities. Severe pneumonia was noted in 37 of 28,372 non-EC users (0.13%), but there were no occurrences of severe pneumonia in EC users. The incidence of pneumonia occurrence was not different between the two groups (P = 1.000).

CONCLUSIONS

Since e-cigarette or vaping use-associated lung injury (EVALI) is most likely included in acute severe pneumonia occurring within 3 months of EC use, it is considered that there might be no EVALI patients in Korea during the investigation period. A large-scale, prospective study is necessary to evaluate the association between EC use and acute lung injury.

Racial/Ethnic Differences in 30-Day Mortality for Heart Failure and Pneumonia in the Veterans Health Administration Using Claims-based, Clinical, and Social Risk-adjustment Variables

BACKGROUND

Prior studies have identified lower mortality in Black Veterans compared with White Veterans after hospitalization for common medical conditions, but these studies adjusted for comorbid conditions identified in administrative claims.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this study were to compare mortality for non-Hispanic White (hereafter, "White"), non-Hispanic Black (hereafter, "Black"), and Hispanic Veterans hospitalized for heart failure (HF) and pneumonia and determine whether observed mortality differences varied according to whether claims-based comorbid conditions and/or clinical variables were included in risk-adjustment models.

RESEARCH DESIGN

This was an observational study.

SUBJECTS

The study cohort included 143,520 admissions for HF and 127,782 admissions for pneumonia for Veterans hospitalized in 132 Veterans Health Administration (VA) Medical Centers between January 2009 and September 2015.

MEASURES

The primary independent variable was racial/ethnic group (ie, Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White), and the outcome was all-cause mortality 30 days following admission. To compare mortality by race/ethnicity, we used logistic regression models that included different combinations of claims-based, clinical, and sociodemographic variables. For each model, we estimated the average marginal effect (AME) for Black and Hispanic Veterans relative to White Veterans.

RESULTS

Among the 143,520 (127,782) hospitalizations for HF (pneumonia), the average patient age was 71.6 (70.9) years and 98.4% (97.1%) were male. The unadjusted 30-day mortality rates for HF (pneumonia) were 7.2% (11.0%) for White, 4.1% (10.4%) for Black and 8.4% (16.9%) for Hispanic Veterans. Relative to White Veterans, when only claims-based variables were used for risk adjustment, the AME (95% confidence interval) for the HF [pneumonia] cohort was -2.17 (-2.45, -1.89) [0.08 (-0.41, 0.58)] for Black Veterans and 1.32 (0.49, 2.15) [4.51 (3.65, 5.38)] for Hispanic Veterans. When clinical variables were incorporated in addition to claims-based ones, the AME, relative to White Veterans, for the HF [pneumonia] cohort was -1.57 (-1.88, -1.27) [-0.83 (-1.31, -0.36)] for Black Veterans and 1.50 (0.71, 2.30) [3.30 (2.49, 4.11)] for Hispanic Veterans.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with White Veterans, Black Veterans had lower mortality, and Hispanic Veterans had higher mortality for HF and pneumonia. The inclusion of clinical variables into risk-adjustment models impacted the magnitude of racial/ethnic differences in mortality following hospitalization. Future studies examining racial/ethnic disparities should consider including clinical variables for risk adjustment.

Hospital-level factors associated with death during pneumonia-associated hospitalization among adults-New York City, 2010-2014

Background

In New York City (NYC), pneumonia is a leading cause of death and most pneumonia deaths occur in hospitals. Whether the pneumonia death rate in NYC reflects reporting artifact or is associated with factors during pneumonia-associated hospitalization (PAH) is unknown. We aimed to identify hospital-level factors associated with higher than expected in-hospital pneumonia death rates among adults in NYC.

Methods

Data from January 1, 2010–December 31, 2014 were obtained from the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System and the American Hospital Association Database. In-hospital pneumonia standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated for each hospital as observed PAH death rate divided by expected PAH death rate. To determine hospital-level factors associated with higher in-hospital pneumonia SMR, we fit a hospital-level multivariable negative binomial regression model.

Results

Of 148,172 PAH among adult NYC residents in 39 hospitals during 2010–2014, 20,820 (14.06%) resulted in in-hospital death. In-hospital pneumonia SMRs varied across NYC hospitals (0.77–1.23) after controlling for patient-level factors. An increase in average daily occupancy and membership in the Council of Teaching Hospitals were associated with increased in-hospital pneumonia SMR.

Conclusions

Differences in in-hospital pneumonia SMRs between hospitals might reflect differences in disease severity, quality of care, or coding practices. More research is needed to understand the association between average daily occupancy and in-hospital pneumonia SMR. Additional pneumonia-specific training at teaching hospitals can be considered to address higher in-hospital pneumonia SMR in teaching hospitals.

Bacterial and fungal growth in sputum cultures from 165 COVID-19 pneumonia patients requiring intubation: evidence for antimicrobial resistance development and analysis of risk factors

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 causes COVID-19 illness which can progress to severe pneumonia. Empiric antibacterials are often employed though frequency of bacterial coinfection superinfection is debated and concerns raised about selection of bacterial antimicrobial resistance. We evaluated sputum bacterial and fungal growth from 165 intubated COVID-19 pneumonia patients. Objectives were to determine frequency of culture positivity, risk factors for and outcomes of positive cultures, and timing of antimicrobial resistance development.

METHODS

Retrospective reviews were conducted of COVID-19 pneumonia patients requiring intubation admitted to a 1058-bed four community hospital system on the east coast United States, March 1 to May 1, 2020. Length of stay (LOS) was expressed as mean (standard deviation); 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was computed for overall mortality rate using the exact binomial method, and overall mortality was compared across each level of a potential risk factor using a Chi-Square Test of Independence. All tests were two-sided, and significance level was set to 0.05.

RESULTS

Average patient age was 68.7 years and LOS 19.9 days. Eighty-three patients (50.3% of total) originated from home, 10 from group homes (6.1% of total), and 72 from nursing facilities (43.6% of total). Mortality was 62.4%, highest for nursing home residents (80.6%). Findings from 253 sputum cultures overall did not suggest acute bacterial or fungal infection in 73 (45%) of 165 individuals sampled within 24 h of intubation. Cultures ≥ 1 week following intubation did grow potential pathogens in 72 (64.9%) of 111 cases with 70.8% consistent with late pneumonia and 29.2% suggesting colonization. Twelve (10.8% of total) of these late post-intubation cultures revealed worsened antimicrobial resistance predominantly in Pseudomonas, Enterobacter, or Staphylococcus aureus.

CONCLUSIONS

In severe COVID-19 pneumonia, a radiographic ground glass interstitial pattern and lack of purulent sputum prior to/around the time of intubation correlated with no culture growth or recovery of normal oral flora ± yeast. Discontinuation of empiric antibacterials should be considered in these patients aided by other clinical findings, history of prior antimicrobials, laboratory testing, and overall clinical course. Continuing longterm hospitalisation and antibiotics are associated with sputum cultures reflective of hospital-acquired microbes and increasing antimicrobial resistance.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not applicable as this was a retrospective chart review study without interventional arm.

Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for treating very severe pneumonia in Aotearoa New Zealand: a 16-year experience

AIM

We sought to describe the aetiology, demographics and outcomes of patients with pneumonia undergoing venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) in Aotearoa New Zealand.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study.

RESULTS

Between January 2004 and August 2020, 133 patients underwent VV-ECMO for pneumonia. This VV-ECMO cohort is representative of the geographic and ethnic distribution of the population of Aotearoa New Zealand. Six-month survival was 85/133 (64%). A primary viral aetiology was identified in 63/133 cases (47%) with bacterial co-infection present in 34/63 viral pneumonias (54%). Primary bacterial pneumonia was identified in 48/133 cases (36%). Twenty-three (17%) of 133 patients developed necrotising pneumonia. The most commonly identified microorganisms were influenza A, Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae. Infection with Staphylococcus aureus or Streptococcus species was strongly associated with necrotising pneumonia (OR 10.18, 95% CI 3.52-37.13, P<0.0001). Necrotising pneumonia was more common in Māori and Pacific Peoples than in other ethnic groups (OR 3.08, 95% CI 1.16-7.96, P=0.02).

DISCUSSION

Outcomes from VV-ECMO for pneumonia in Aotearoa New Zealand are comparable to large international series. Although the use of VV-ECMO was matched to the ethnic distribution of the population of Aotearoa New Zealand, Māori may have reduced access because they have higher rates of pneumonia than non-Māori.

Institutional mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological transition, touted as occurring in Ghana, requires research that tracks the changing patterns of diseases in order to capture the trend and improve healthcare delivery. This study examines national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018.

METHODS

Institutional mortality data and cause of death from 2014-2018 were sourced from the Ghana Health Service's District Health Information Management System. The latter collates healthcare service data routinely from government and non-governmental health institutions in Ghana yearly. The institutional mortality rate was estimated using guidelines from the Ghana Health Service. Percent change in mortality was examined for 2014 and 2018. In addition, cause of death data were available for 2017 and 2018. The World Health Organisation's 11th International Classification for Diseases (ICD-11) was used to group the cause of death.

RESULTS

Institutional mortality decreased by 7% nationally over the study period. However, four out of ten regions (Greater Accra, Volta, Upper East, and Upper West) recorded increases in institutional mortality. The Upper East (17%) and Volta regions (13%) recorded the highest increase. Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were the leading cause of death in 2017 (25%) and 2018 (20%). This was followed by certain infectious and parasitic diseases (15% for both years) and respiratory infections (10% in 2017 and 13% in 2018). Among the NCDs, hypertension was the leading cause of death with 2,243 and 2,472 cases in 2017 and 2018. Other (non-ischemic) heart diseases and diabetes were the second and third leading NCDs. Septicaemia, tuberculosis and pneumonia were the predominant infectious diseases. Regional variations existed in the cause of death. NCDs showed more urban-region bias while infectious diseases presented more rural-region bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This study examined national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana. Ghana recorded a decrease in institutional mortality throughout the study. NCDs and infections were the leading causes of death, giving a double-burden of diseases. There is a need to enhance efforts towards healthcare and health promotion programmes for NCDs and infectious diseases at facility and community levels as outlined in the 2020 National Health Policy of Ghana.

Community-acquired pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia is not usually considered a high-priority problem by the public, although it is responsible for substantial mortality, with a third of patients dying within 1 year after being discharged from hospital for pneumoniae. Although up to 18% of patients with community-acquired pneumonia who were hospitalised (admitted to hospital and treated there) have at least one risk factor for immunosuppression worldwide, strong evidence on community-acquired pneumonia management in this population is scarce. Several features of clinical management for community-acquired pneumonia should be addressed to reduce mortality, morbidity, and complications related to community-acquired pneumonia in patients who are immunocompetent and patients who are immunocompromised. These features include rapid diagnosis, microbiological investigation, prevention and management of complications (eg, respiratory failure, sepsis, and multiorgan failure), empirical antibiotic therapy in accordance with patient's risk factors and local microbiological epidemiology, individualised antibiotic therapy according to microbiological data, appropriate outcomes for therapeutic switch from parenteral to oral antibiotics, discharge planning, and long-term follow-up. This Seminar offers an updated view on community-acquired pneumonia in adults, with suggestions for clinical and translational research.

RDW-based clinical score to predict long-term survival in community-acquired pneumonia: a European derivation and validation study

An excess long-term mortality has been observed in patients who were discharged after a community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), even after adjusting for age and comorbidities. We aimed to derive and validate a clinical score to predict long-term mortality in patients with CAP discharged from a general ward. In this retrospective observational study, we derived a clinical risk score from 315 CAP patients discharged from the Internal Medicine ward of Cuneo Hospital, Italy, in 2015-2016 (derivation cohort), which was validated in a cohort of 276 patients discharged from the pneumology service of the Barakaldo Hospital, Spain, from 2015 to 2017, and from two internal medicine wards at the Turin University and Cuneo Hospital, Italy, in 2017. The main outcome was the 18-month follow-up all-cause death. Cox multivariate analysis was used to identify the predictive variables and develop the clinical risk score in the derivation cohort, which we applied in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort (median age: 79 years, 54% males, median CURB-65 = 2), 18-month mortality was 32%, and 18% in the validation cohort (median age 76 years, 55% males, median CURB-65 = 2). Cox multivariate analysis identified the red blood cell distribution width (RDW), temperature, altered mental status, and Charlson Comorbidity Index as independent predictors. The derived score showed good discrimination (c-index 0.76, 95% CI 0.70-0.81; and 0.83, 95% CI 0.78-0.87, in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively), and calibration. We derived and validated a simple clinical score including RDW, to predict long-term mortality in patients discharged for CAP from a general ward.

Six Month Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 and Non-COVID-19 Viral Pneumonitis Managed with Veno-Venous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

A significant proportion of patients with COVID-19 develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with high risk of death. The efficacy of veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) for COVID-19 on longer-term outcomes, unlike in other viral pneumonias, is unknown. In this study, we aimed to compare the 6 month mortality of patients receiving VV-ECMO support for COVID-19 with a historical viral ARDS cohort. Fifty-three consecutive patients with COVID-19 ARDS admitted for VV-ECMO to the Royal Brompton Hospital between March 17, 2020 and May 30, 2020 were identified. Mortality, patient characteristics, complications, and ECMO parameters were then compared to a historical cohort of patients with non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia. At 6 months survival was significantly higher in the COVID-19 than in the non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia cohort (84.9% vs. 66.0%, p = 0.040). Patients with COVID-19 had an increased Murray score (3.50 vs. 3.25, p = 0.005), a decreased burden of organ dysfunction (sequential organ failure score score [8.76 vs. 10.42, p = 0.004]), an increased incidence of pulmonary embolism (69.8% vs. 24.5%, p < 0.001) and in those who survived to decannulation longer ECMO runs (19 vs. 11 days, p = 0.001). Our results suggest that survival in patients supported with EMCO for COVID-19 are at least as good as those treated for non-COVID-19 viral ARDS.

Lymphopenia and lung complications in patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19): A retrospective study based on clinical data

A rapid outbreak of novel coronavirus, coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), has made it a global pandemic. This study focused on the possible association between lymphopenia and computed tomography (CT) scan features and COVID-19 patient mortality. The clinical data of 596 COVID-19 patients were collected from February 2020 to September 2020. The patients' serological survey and CT scan features were retrospectively explored. The median age of the patients was 56.7 ± 16.4 years old. Lung involvement was more than 50% in 214 COVID-19 patients (35.9%). The average blood lymphocyte percentage was 20.35 ± 10.16 (normal range, 20%-50%). Although the levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) were high in more than 80% of COVID-19 patients; CRP, ESR, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) may not indicate the in-hospital mortality of COVID-19. Patients with severe lung involvement and lymphopenia were found to be significantly associated with increased odds of death (odds ratio, 9.24; 95% confidence interval, 4.32-19.78). These results indicated that lymphopenia < 20% along with pulmonary involvement >50% impose a multiplicative effect on the risk of mortality. The in-hospital mortality rate of this group was significantly higher than other COVID-19 hospitalized cases. Furthermore, they meaningfully experienced a prolonged stay in the hospital (p = .00). Lymphocyte count less than 20% and chest CT scan findings with more than 50% involvement might be related to the patient's mortality. These could act as laboratory and clinical indicators of disease severity, mortality, and outcome.

BMI and pneumonia outcomes in critically ill covid-19 patients: An international multicenter study

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies have unveiled a relationship between the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia and obesity. The aims of this multicenter retrospective cohort study were to disentangle the association of BMI and associated metabolic risk factors (diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and current smoking status) in critically ill patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

Patients admitted to intensive care units for COVID-19 in 21 centers (in Europe, Israel, and the United States) were enrolled in this study between February 19, 2020, and May 19, 2020. Primary and secondary outcomes were the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and 28-day mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 1,461 patients were enrolled; the median (interquartile range) age was 64 years (40.9-72.0); 73.2% of patients were male; the median BMI was 28.1 kg/m² (25.4-32.3); a total of 1,080 patients (73.9%) required IMV; and the 28-day mortality estimate was 36.1% (95% CI: 33.0-39.5). An adjusted mixed logistic regression model showed a significant linear relationship between BMI and IMV: odds ratio = 1.27 (95% CI: 1.12-1.45) per 5 kg/m² . An adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression model showed a significant association between BMI and mortality, which was increased only in obesity class III (≥40; hazard ratio = 1.68 [95% CI: 1.06-2.64]).

CONCLUSIONS

In critically ill COVID-19 patients, a linear association between BMI and the need for IMV, independent of other metabolic risk factors, and a nonlinear association between BMI and mortality risk were observed.

Introduction to the Site-specific Etiologic Results From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study

The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study evaluated the etiology of severe and very severe pneumonia in children hospitalized in 7 African and Asian countries. Here, we summarize the highlights of in-depth site-specific etiology analyses published separately in this issue, including how etiology varies by age, mortality status, malnutrition, severity, HIV status, and more. These site-specific results impart important lessons that can inform disease control policy implications.

Factors associated with serious outcomes of pneumonia among children in a birth cohort in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Child hospitalization for pneumonia remains common, and pneumonia is a major cause of child mortality. Early identification of clinical factors associated with serious outcomes may help target risk-mitigation strategies.

METHODS

Pneumonia cases occurring in the Drakenstein Child Health Study, a prospective birth cohort outside Cape Town, South Africa were analysed, and factors associated with serious outcomes of pneumonia were identified. Pregnant women were enrolled antenatally, followed through pregnancy, and mother-child pairs from birth to 2 years. Active surveillance for pneumonia was done. Children hospitalized with pneumonia had chest radiography and blood drawn for inflammatory markers; course, outcome and duration of hospitalization were investigated. Serious outcomes were defined as in-hospital mortality or admission to intensive care unit (ICU). Prolonged hospitalization was also explored as a proxy for severity. Features associated with serious outcomes or prolonged hospitalization were analysed using modified Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Among 1143 live born infants, there were 174 hospitalized pneumonia events in 133 children under 2 years. Three children (1.7%) died, 14 (8%) required ICU admission for respiratory support. In modified Poisson regression, age < 2 months, preterm birth, or hypoxia (oxygen saturation <92%) were significantly associated with serious outcomes. Preterm birth, low birth weight, HIV exposure, stunting, or underweight-for-age (UWFA) were associated with prolonged hospitalization. Chest radiography, elevated C reactive protein, white blood cell and neutrophil counts were not useful to predict death or ICU admission in children hospitalized with pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort, death from pneumonia was rare, but clinical features associated with serious outcomes and prolonged hospitalization were identified. These may help with risk stratification, to identify children who may benefit from enhanced monitoring or earlier escalation to respiratory support.

Postmortem Study of Cause of Death Among Children Hospitalized With Respiratory Illness in Kenya

BACKGROUND

In resource-limited settings, acute respiratory infections continue to be the leading cause of death in young children. We conducted postmortem investigations in children <5 years hospitalized with a clinical diagnosis of respiratory disease at Kenya's largest referral hospital.

METHODS

We collected respiratory and other tissues postmortem to examine pathologic processes using histology, molecular and immunohistochemistry assays. Nasopharyngeal, trachea, bronchi and lung specimens were tested using 21-target respiratory pathogen real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays deployed on Taqman Array Cards. Expert panels reviewed all findings to determine causes of death and associated pathogens.

RESULTS

From 2014 to 2015, we investigated 64 pediatric deaths (median age 7 months). Pneumonia was determined as cause of death in 70% (42/52) of cases where death was associated with an infectious disease process. The main etiologies of pneumonia deaths were respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (n = 7, 19%), Pneumocystis jirovecii (n = 7, 19%), influenza A (n = 5, 14%) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (n = 5, 14%)-10% of cases had multi-pathogen involvement. Among the other 10 deaths associated with a nonpneumonia infectious process, 4 did not have an etiology assigned, the others were associated with miliary tuberculosis (2), cerebral thrombosis due to HIV (1), Enterobacteriaceae (1), rotavirus (1), and 1 case of respiratory infection with severe hypokalemia associated with RSV.

CONCLUSIONS

In spite of well-established vaccination programs in Kenya, some deaths were still vaccine preventable. Accelerated development of RSV monoclonal antibodies and vaccines, introduction of seasonal influenza vaccination, and maintenance or improved uptake of existing vaccines can contribute to further reductions in childhood mortality.

Long-term metformin use and risk of pneumonia and related death in type 2 diabetes: a registry-based cohort study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The long-term effects of metformin in individuals with type 2 diabetes who are at increased risk of severe respiratory infections are unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of metformin use on the risk of first pneumonia hospitalisation and pneumonia-related death in a cohort of Chinese individuals with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of a consecutive cohort of 22,638 individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Hong Kong Diabetes Register enrolled between 2001 and 2018, with follow-up until 31 December 2019. Overlap propensity-score weighting was performed to balance baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

Of 22,638 individuals with type 2 diabetes, after excluding those who had not been prescribed any glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) and/or with eGFR ≤30 ml min^-1 [1.73 m]^-2 or treated by dialysis and/or treated with insulin at baseline, we identified 15,784 either prevalent or incident metformin users and 917 users of other GLDs during a mean follow-up period of 7.5 years. Overlap-weighted analysis showed an HR of 0.63 (95% CI 0.52, 0.77) for first pneumonia hospitalisation and 0.49 (95% CI 0.33, 0.73) for pneumonia-related death in metformin users vs users of other GLDs; similar observations resulted following stratification by sex and kidney function. There was also a negative association between metformin exposure over time (proportion of duration of metformin prescriptions during the total follow-up time) and pneumonia events using the penalised spline analysis. Metformin users had a lower neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio at first pneumonia hospitalisation vs non-metformin users (mean [95% CI]: 12.8 [12.1, 13.5] vs 14.8 [12.3, 17.3], p = 0.032). The rate of metformin-associated lactic acidosis was 2.5 per 100,000 person-years. The lower risk of pneumonia events was also observed among incident metformin users vs other GLD users.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Long-term use of metformin was associated with reduced risk of pneumonia and pneumonia-related death among Chinese individuals with diabetes. The relevance of these results to other respiratory infections merits further investigation.

Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor-Related Pneumonitis in Lung Cancer: Real-World Incidence, Risk Factors, and Management Practices Across Six Health Care Centers in North Carolina

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are standard treatments for advanced non-small cell lung cancer and have expanded use in small cell lung cancer. Although generally better tolerated than traditional chemotherapy, immune-related adverse events, such as immune checkpoint inhibitor-related pneumonitis (ICI-P), remain poorly understood toxicities that limit ICI treatment and can result in considerable morbidity. In this retrospective case-control study, we assessed a lung cancer cohort to identify ICI-P risk factors.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What are the risk factors, clinical presentations, radiographic findings, and outcomes for ICI-P in a real-world lung cancer cohort? Do chronic pulmonary diseases confer increased risk for ICI-P?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Medical records from lung cancer patients receiving nivolumab, pembrolizumab, or combination ipilimumab and nivolumab at six centers in North Carolina were reviewed (January 2004-July 2017). Patients with ICI-P and control participants were characterized, and logistic regression was used to assess for ICI-P risk factors.

RESULTS

Three hundred fifteen lung cancer patients who predominantly received nivolumab (76.5%) or pembrolizumab (22%) were included. The incidence of ICI-P was 9.5%, with a median time to diagnosis of 52.5 days. Most patients with ICI-P had cases of high severity, and eight patients (27%) died with ongoing ICI-P treatment. Development of ICI-P was independently associated with the presence of baseline fibrosis on chest CT scan (adjusted OR [aOR], 6.61; 95% CI, 2.48-17.7), a composite measure of obstructive lung disease (aOR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.07-7.29), and treatment with pembrolizumab (aOR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.08-6.11).

INTERPRETATION

In this cohort, ICI-P was more common and severe than previously reported and carried an unexpectedly high mortality rate. Risk for ICI-P was shown to be independently associated with several chronic pulmonary diseases, which may account for the higher incidence of ICI-P in patients with lung cancer.

The possible effects of iron loss from bloodletting on mortality from pneumonia in the nineteenth century

OBJECTIVE

To estimate iron losses and disease severity following 19th century bloodletting in patients with pneumonia.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Benefits of bloodletting in pneumonia patients were contested during the 19th century. Although large blood volumes during infection were removed there was no systematic data collection assessing efficacy and knowledge of iron composition of blood was rudimentary. This observational analysis of historical data quantifies iron losses in pneumonia cases in relation to disease severity.

RESULTS

Based on one detailed case series average blood volume removed for survivors was 830 mL (range 114-2272 mL), and mean recovery times were shorter in patients bled within 2 days of illness (P < 0.001). Average iron removed was 446 mg with phlebotomy done ≤2 days of illness presentation and 347 mg after >2 days of illness (P = 0.012). Across several European hospitals average case fatality in pneumonia patients receiving phlebotomy was higher than in those treated without phlebotomy (19.9% vs. 12.8%, OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.38-1.74, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Variable efficacy for bloodletting could at least in part be explained by altered iron status.

Population-based incidence and mortality of community-acquired pneumonia in Germany

Background

Little information on the current burden of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in adults in Germany is available.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a representative healthcare claims database of approx. 4 million adults to estimate the incidence rates (IR) and associated mortality of CAP in 2015. IR and mortality were stratified by treatment setting, age group, and risk group status. A pneumonia coded in the primary diagnosis position or in the second diagnosis position with another pneumonia-related condition coded in the primary position was used as the base cases definition for the study. Sensitivity analyses using broader and more restrictive case definitions were also performed.

Results

The overall IR of CAP in adults ≥18 years was 1,054 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation. In adults aged 16 to 59 years, IR for overall CAP, hospitalized CAP and outpatient CAP was 551, 96 and 466 (with a hospitalization rate of 17%). In adults aged ≥60 years, the respective IR were 2,032, 1,061 and 1,053 (with a hospitalization rate of 52%). If any pneumonia coded in the primary or secondary diagnosis position was considered for hospitalized patients, the IR increased 1.5-fold to 1,560 in the elderly ≥60 years. The incidence of CAP hospitalizations was substantially higher in adults ≥18 years with at-risk conditions and high-risk conditions (IR of 608 and 1,552, respectively), compared to adults without underlying risk conditions (IR 108). High mortality of hospitalized CAP in adults ≥18 was observed in-hospital (18.5%), at 30 days (22.9%) and at one-year (44.5%) after CAP onset. Mortality was more than double in older adults in comparison to younger patients.

Conclusion

CAP burden in older adults and individuals with underlying risk conditions was high. Maximizing uptake of existing vaccines for respiratory diseases may help to mitigate the disease burden, especially in times of strained healthcare resources.

The Associations of Serum IL-37 With the Severity and Prognosis in Patients With Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Recent evidences suggested that IL-37 may participate in the pathophysiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Nevertheless, its exact biological role was unknown. The objective of this study was to determine the associations of serum IL-37 with the severity and prognosis in CAP patients based on a retrospective cohort study.

Methods

The whole of 120 healthy subjects and 240 CAP patients were summoned. Peripheral blood was collected and IL-37 was detected using ELISA.

Results

Serum IL-37 was obviously decreased in CAP patients on admission. In addition, serum IL-37 was gradually decreased in parallel with CAP severity scores. Correlative analysis revealed that serum IL-37 was negatively associated with CAP severity scores and inflammatory cytokines. Further logistical regression found that reduction of serum IL-37 augmented the severity of CAP patients. Moreover, the follow-up research was performed in CAP patients. Serum lower IL-37 on admission prolonged the hospital stay in CAP patients. Serum IL-37 combination with PSI and CURB-65 had a stronger predictive capacity for death than IL-37 and CAP severity score alone in CAP patients.

Conclusion

There are remarkably negative correlations between serum IL-37 with the severity and prognosis in CAP patients. Serum IL-37 on admission prolongs the hospital stay, demonstrating that IL-37 may involve in the process of CAP. Serum IL-37 may be regarded as a biomarker for diagnosis and prognosis for CAP patients.

Incorporating Present-on-Admission Indicators in Medicare Claims to Inform Hospital Quality Measure Risk Adjustment Models

Importance

Present-on-admission (POA) indicators in administrative claims data allow researchers to distinguish between preexisting conditions and those acquired during a hospital stay. The impact of adding POA information to claims-based measures of hospital quality has not yet been investigated to better understand patient underlying risk factors in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision setting.

Objective

To assess POA indicator use on Medicare claims and to assess the hospital- and patient-level outcomes associated with incorporating POA indicators in identifying risk factors for publicly reported outcome measures used by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This comparative effectiveness study used national CMS claims data between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2018. Six hospital quality measures assessing readmission and mortality outcomes were modified to include POA indicators in risk adjustment models. The models using POA were then compared with models using the existing complications-of-care algorithm to evaluate changes in risk model performance. Patient claims data were included for all Medicare fee-for-service and Veterans Administration beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with inpatient hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or pneumonia within the measurement period. Data were analyzed between September 2019 and March 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Changes in patient-level (C statistics) and hospital-level (quintile shifts in risk-standardized outcome rates) model performance after including POA indicators in risk adjustment.

Results

Data from a total of 6 027 988 index admissions were included for analysis, ranging from 491 366 admissions (269 209 [54.8%] men; mean [SD] age, 78.2 [8.3] years) for the acute myocardial infarction mortality outcome measure to 1 395 870 admissions (677 158 [48.5%] men; mean [SD] age, 80.3 [8.7] years) for the pneumonia readmission measure. Use of POA indicators was associated with improvements in risk adjustment model performance, particularly for mortality measures (eg, the C statistic increased from 0.728 [95% CI, 0.726-0.730] to 0.774 [95% CI, 0.773-0.776] when incorporating POA indicators into the acute myocardial infarction mortality measure).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this quality improvement study suggest that leveraging POA indicators in the risk adjustment methodology for hospital quality outcome measures may help to more fully capture patients' risk factors and improve overall model performance. Incorporating POA indicators does not require extra effort on the part of hospitals and would be easy to implement in publicly reported quality outcome measures.

Excess Mortality Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic-Los Angeles County, March-September 2020

OBJECTIVE

To more comprehensively estimate COVID-19-related mortality in Los Angeles County by determining excess all-cause mortality and pneumonia, influenza, or COVID (PIC) mortality.

DESIGN

We reviewed vital statistics data to identify deaths registered in Los Angeles County between March 15, 2020, and August 15, 2020. Deaths with an ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision) code for pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 listed as an immediate or underlying cause of death were classified as PIC deaths. Expected deaths were calculated using negative binomial regression. Excess mortality was determined by subtracting the expected from the observed number of weekly deaths. The Department of Public Health conducts surveillance for COVID-19-associated deaths: persons who died of nontraumatic/nonaccidental causes within 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test result were classified as confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Deaths without a reported positive SARS-Cov-2 polymerase chain reaction result were classified as probable COVID-19 deaths if COVID-19 was listed on their death certificate or the death occurred 60 to 90 days of a positive test. We compared excess PIC deaths with the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths ascertained by surveillance.

SETTING

Los Angeles County.

PARTICIPANTS

Residents of Los Angeles County who died.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Excess mortality.

RESULTS

There were 7208 excess all-cause and 5128 excess PIC deaths during the study period. The Department of Public Health also reported 5160 confirmed and 323 probable COVID-19-associated deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of excess PIC deaths estimated by our model was approximately equal to the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths identified by surveillance. This suggests our surveillance definition for confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths might be sufficiently sensitive for capturing the true burden of deaths caused directly or indirectly by COVID-19.

Mortality, neurodevelopmental impairments, and economic outcomes after invasive group B streptococcal disease in early infancy in Denmark and the Netherlands: a national matched cohort study

Background

Group B Streptococcus (GBS) disease is a leading cause of neonatal death, but its long-term effects have not been studied after early childhood. The aim of this study was to assess long-term mortality, neurodevelopmental impairments (NDIs), and economic outcomes after infant invasive GBS (iGBS) disease up to adolescence in Denmark and the Netherlands.

Methods

For this cohort study, children with iGBS disease were identified in Denmark and the Netherlands using national medical and administrative databases and culture results that confirmed their diagnoses. Exposed children were defined as having a history of iGBS disease (sepsis, meningitis, or pneumonia) by the age of 89 days. For each exposed child, ten unexposed children were randomly selected and matched by sex, year and month of birth, and gestational age. Mortality data were analysed with the use of Cox proportional hazards models. NDI data up to adolescence were captured from discharge diagnoses in the National Patient Registry (Denmark) and special educational support records (the Netherlands). Health care use and household income were also compared between the exposed and unexposed cohorts.

Findings

2258 children—1561 in Denmark (born from Jan 1, 1997 to Dec 31, 2017) and 697 in the Netherlands (born from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2017)—were identified to have iGBS disease and followed up for a median of 14 years (IQR 7–18) in Denmark and 9 years (6–11) in the Netherlands. 366 children had meningitis, 1763 had sepsis, and 129 had pneumonia (in Denmark only). These children were matched with 22 462 children with no history of iGBS disease. iGBS meningitis was associated with an increased mortality at age 5 years (adjusted hazard ratio 4·08 [95% CI 1·78–9·35] for Denmark and 6·73 [3·76–12·06] for the Netherlands). Any iGBS disease was associated with an increased risk of NDI at 10 years of age, both in Denmark (risk ratio 1·77 [95% CI 1·44–2·18]) and the Netherlands (2·28 [1·64–3·17]). A history of iGBS disease was associated with more frequent outpatient clinic visits (incidence rate ratio 1·93 [95% CI 1·79–2·09], p<0·0001) and hospital admissions (1·33 [1·27–1·38], p<0·0001) in children 5 years or younger. No differences in household income were observed between the exposed and unexposed cohorts.

Interpretation

iGBS disease, especially meningitis, was associated with increased mortality and a higher risk of NDIs in later childhood. This previously unquantified burden underlines the case for a maternal GBS vaccine, and the need to track and provide care for affected survivors of iGBS disease.

Funding

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Translations

For the Dutch and Danish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Association Between Chronic Inflammatory Diseases and Stroke-Associated Pneumonia - An Epidemiological Study

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia, the most common post-acute ischemic stroke (AIS) infection, accounts for up to 30% of deaths after a stroke. Multiple chronic inflammatory diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and inflammatory bowel disease, are associated with increased risk of stroke and stroke morbidity. This study assessed the relationship between chronic inflammatory diseases and stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP).

METHODS

Using data from the 2015-2017 National Inpatient Sample, we classified hospital discharges with a diagnosis of AIS as having ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus, other chronic inflammatory diseases, multiple chronic inflammatory diseases, or none. With multivariable logistic regression, we assessed for associations between chronic inflammatory disease and in-hospital SAP or death.

RESULTS

Among AIS discharges, there was a decreased risk of SAP among those with psoriasis or other chronic inflammatory diseases (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.70, 95%CI 0.63-0.99; aOR 0.64, 95%CI, 0.46-0.89, respectively), compared to those without psoriasis and without other chronic inflammatory disease, respectively. Rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and other chronic inflammatory diseases were associated with reduced in-hospital mortality (aOR 0.89, 95%CI 0.78-1.00; aOR 0.77, 95%CI 0.59-1.00; aOR 0.69, 95%CI 0.50-0.94, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of SAP and in-hospital mortality varies by chronic inflammatory disease - psoriasis and other chronic inflammatory diseases are associate with reduced rates of SAP, whereas rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis and other chronic inflammatory disease were associated with reduced in-hospital mortality. Further investigations are needed to determine a relationship between the potential role of immunomodulation and the reduction in SAP and mortality in chronic inflammatory diseases.

Activity of daily living upon admission is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality in older patients with community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Older patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) are at high risk for short-term mortality. Activity of daily living (ADL) is associated with clinical outcomes in older patients. We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of ADL upon admission on the in-hospital mortality in older patients with CAP.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving patients aged ≥65 years admitted to Beijing Chao-Yang hospital due to CAP between June 2012 and June 2020. ADL evaluation upon admission was performed by Barthel Index (BI). Data from all patients were extracted from the electronic medical records.

RESULTS

Four thousand eight hundred eighty patients were included, 131 patients (2.7%) died during their hospitalization. Median BI in the Deceased group was 45 (20-65), Deceased group had lower BI scores than Survivors group (p < 0.001). Low BI (< 60) was more frequent in patients who died in the hospital than in patients discharged alive (69.5% vs. 13%, p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was higher among patients with worse ADL upon admission (BI< 60) compared to those BI≥60 (12.6% vs. 0.9%). The worse ADL upon admission (BI< 60) was associated with an increase in the risk of death during CAP hospitalization, worse ADL upon admission (BI< 60) showed an odds ratio (OR) for in-hospital mortality of 7.53 (95%CI: 2.77-20.48; P < 0.01). This association remained significant after adjustment for age, comorbid conditions, respiratory failure, pathogens and laboratory findings (OR, 3.74; 95%CI, 2.37-5.91; P < 0.01). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve revealed that BI upon admission is a predictor related to in-hospital mortality in elderly patients, the area under the ROC curve of BI in predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.81 (with 95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.85). The predictive value of ADL upon admission was better than age in our study population.

CONCLUSION

Activity of daily living upon admission is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality in older patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

Developing the Pneumonia-Optimized Ratio for Community-acquired pneumonia: An easy, inexpensive and accurate prognostic biomarker

Introduction

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is still a major public health problem. Prognostic scores at admission in tertiary services may improve early identification of severity and better allocation of resources, ultimately improving survival. Herein, we aimed at evaluating prognostic biomarkers of CAP and a Pneumonia-Optimized Ratio was created to improve prognostic performance.

Methods

In this retrospective study, all patients with suspected Community-acquired pneumonia aged 18 or older admitted to a public hospital from January 2019 to February 2020 were included in this study. Blood testing and clinical information at admission were collected, and the primary outcome was overall survival. CURB-65 scores and prognostic biomarkers were measured, namely Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Cell Ratio (NLCR), Platelet to Lymphocyte ratio (PLR), Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR). A Pneumonia-Optimized Ratio (POR) score was created by selecting the biomarker with larger accuracy (NLCR) and multiplying it by the patients’ CURB-65 score. Multivariate regression model was performed and ROC curves were created for each biomarker.

Results

Our sample consisted of 646 individuals (median 66 years [IQR, 18–103], 53.9% females) with complete blood testing at the time of admission. Patients scored 0–1 (323, 50%), 2 (187, 28.9%), or 3 or above (122, 18.9%) in the CURB-65, and 65 (10%) presented the primary outcome of death. POR exhibited the highest Area Under Curve (AUC) in the ROC analysis (AUC = 0.753), when compared with NLCR (AUC = 0.706), PLR (AUC = 0.630) and MLR (AUC = 0.627). POR and NLCR presented increased crude mortality rate in the fourth quartile in comparison with the first quartile, and the fourth quartile of NLCR had more days of hospitalization than the first quartile (11.06±15.96 vs. 7.02±8.39, p = 0.012).

Conclusion

The Pneumonia-Optimized Ratio in patients with CAP showed good prognostic performance of mortality at the admission of a tertiary service. The NLCR may also be used as an estimation of days of hospitalization. Prognostic biomarkers may provide important guidance to resource allocation in resource-limited settings.

The prognostic value of IL-8 for the death of severe or critical patients with COVID-19

Inflammation has been believed to contribute to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Risk factors for death of COVID-19 pneumonia have not yet been well established.In this retrospective cohort study, we included the deceased patients in COVID-19 specialized ICU with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Guanggu hospital area of Tongji Hospital from February 8th to March 30th. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records using a standard data collection form. We used Spearman rank correlation and Cox regression analysis to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death, especially the association between inflammatory cytokines and death.A total of 205 severe/critical COVID-19 pneumonia patients were admitted in the COVID-19 specialized ICU and 75 deceased patients were included in the final analysis. The median age of the deceasing patients was 70 years (IQR 65-79). The common symptoms were fever (78.9%), cough (70.4%), and expectoration (39.4%). The BNP and CRP levels were far beyond the normal reference range. In the Spearman rank correlation analysis, IL-8 was found to be significantly associated with the time from onset to death (rs= -0.30, P = .034) and that from admission to death (rs= -0.32, P = .019). Cox regression showed after adjusting age and sex, IL-8 levels were still significantly associated with the time from onset to death (P = .003) and that from admission to death (P  = .01).IL-8 levels were associated with in-hospital death in severe/critical COVID-19 patients, which could help clinicians to identify patients with high risk of death at an early stage.

Excess mortality in Wuhan city and other parts of China during the three months of the covid-19 outbreak: findings from nationwide mortality registries

OBJECTIVE

To assess excess all cause and cause specific mortality during the three months (1 January to 31 March 2020) of the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) outbreak in Wuhan city and other parts of China.

DESIGN

Nationwide mortality registries.

SETTING

605 urban districts and rural counties in China's nationally representative Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) system.

PARTICIPANTS

More than 300 million people of all ages.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Observed overall and weekly mortality rates from all cause and cause specific diseases for three months (1 January to 31 March 2020) of the covid-19 outbreak compared with the predicted (or mean rates for 2015-19) in different areas to yield rate ratio.

RESULTS

The DSP system recorded 580 819 deaths from January to March 2020. In Wuhan DSP districts (n=3), the observed total mortality rate was 56% (rate ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 1.87) higher than the predicted rate (1147 v 735 per 100 000), chiefly as a result of an eightfold increase in deaths from pneumonia (n=1682; 275 v 33 per 100 000; 8.32, 5.19 to 17.02), mainly covid-19 related, but a more modest increase in deaths from certain other diseases, including cardiovascular disease (n=2347; 408 v 316 per 100 000; 1.29, 1.05 to 1.65) and diabetes (n=262; 46 v 25 per 100 000; 1.83, 1.08 to 4.37). In Wuhan city (n=13 districts), 5954 additional (4573 pneumonia) deaths occurred in 2020 compared with 2019, with excess risks greater in central than in suburban districts (50% v 15%). In other parts of Hubei province (n=19 DSP areas), the observed mortality rates from pneumonia and chronic respiratory diseases were non-significantly 28% and 23% lower than the predicted rates, despite excess deaths from covid-19 related pneumonia. Outside Hubei (n=583 DSP areas), the observed total mortality rate was non-significantly lower than the predicted rate (675 v 715 per 100 000), with significantly lower death rates from pneumonia (0.53, 0.46 to 0.63), chronic respiratory diseases (0.82, 0.71 to 0.96), and road traffic incidents (0.77, 0.68 to 0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Except in Wuhan, no increase in overall mortality was found during the three months of the covid-19 outbreak in other parts of China. The lower death rates from certain non-covid-19 related diseases might be attributable to the associated behaviour changes during lockdown.

Pneumonia scoring systems for severe COVID-19: which one is better

PURPOSE

To investigate the predictive significance of different pneumonia scoring systems in clinical severity and mortality risk of patients with severe novel coronavirus pneumonia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 53 cases of severe novel coronavirus pneumonia were confirmed. The APACHE II, MuLBSTA and CURB-65 scores of different treatment methods were calculated, and the predictive power of each score on clinical respiratory support treatment and mortality risk was compared.

RESULTS

The APACHE II score showed the largest area under ROC curve in both noninvasive and invasive respiratory support treatment assessments, which is significantly different from that of CURB-65. Further, the MuLBSTA score had the largest area under ROC curve in terms of death risk assessment, which is also significantly different from that of CURB-65; however, no difference was noted with the APACHE II score.

CONCLUSION

For patients with COVID, the APACHE II score is an effective predictor of the disease severity and mortality risk. Further, the MuLBSTA score is a good predictor only in terms of mortality risk.

Calculated decisions: Drug resistance in pneumonia (DRIP) score

A review of the uses and evidence for the DRIP score, which predicts risk for community-acquired pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens.

Association of α1-Blocker Receipt With 30-Day Mortality and Risk of Intensive Care Unit Admission Among Adults Hospitalized With Influenza or Pneumonia in Denmark

IMPORTANCE

Alpha 1-adrenergic receptor blocking agents (α1-blockers) have been reported to have protective benefits against hyperinflammation and cytokine storm syndrome, conditions that are associated with mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and other severe respiratory tract infections. However, studies of the association of α1-blockers with outcomes among human participants with respiratory tract infections are scarce.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between the receipt of α1-blockers and outcomes among adult patients hospitalized with influenza or pneumonia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based cohort study used data from Danish national registries to identify individuals 40 years and older who were hospitalized with influenza or pneumonia between January 1, 2005, and November 30, 2018, with follow-up through December 31, 2018. In the main analyses, patients currently receiving α1-blockers were compared with those not receiving α1-blockers (defined as patients with no prescription for an α1-blocker filled within 365 days before the index date) and those currently receiving 5α-reductase inhibitors. Propensity scores were used to address confounding factors and to compute weighted risks, absolute risk differences, and risk ratios. Data were analyzed from April 21 to December 21, 2020.

EXPOSURES

Current receipt of α1-blockers compared with nonreceipt of α1-blockers and with current receipt of 5α-reductase inhibitors.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Death within 30 days of hospital admission and risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission.

RESULTS

A total of 528 467 adult patients (median age, 75.0 years; interquartile range, 64.4-83.6 years; 273 005 men [51.7%]) were hospitalized with influenza or pneumonia in Denmark between 2005 and 2018. Of those, 21 772 patients (4.1%) were currently receiving α1-blockers compared with a population of 22 117 patients not receiving α1-blockers who were weighted to the propensity score distribution of those receiving α1-blockers. In the propensity score-weighted analyses, patients receiving α1-blockers had lower 30-day mortality (15.9%) compared with patients not receiving α1-blockers (18.5%), with a corresponding risk difference of -2.7% (95% CI, -3.2% to -2.2%) and a risk ratio (RR) of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.83-0.88). The risk of ICU admission was 7.3% among patients receiving α1-blockers and 7.7% among those not receiving α1-blockers (risk difference, -0.4% [95% CI, -0.8% to 0%]; RR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.90-1.00]). A comparison between 18 280 male patients currently receiving α1-blockers and 18 228 propensity score-weighted male patients currently receiving 5α-reductase inhibitors indicated that those receiving α1-blockers had lower 30-day mortality (risk difference, -2.0% [95% CI, -3.4% to -0.6%]; RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.82-0.96]) and a similar risk of ICU admission (risk difference, -0.3% [95% CI, -1.4% to 0.7%]; RR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.83-1.10]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study's findings suggest that the receipt of α1-blockers is associated with protective benefits among adult patients hospitalized with influenza or pneumonia.

Epicardial adipose tissue is associated with extent of pneumonia and adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19

AIM

We sought to examine the association of epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) quantified on chest computed tomography (CT) with the extent of pneumonia and adverse outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

We performed a post-hoc analysis of a prospective international registry comprising 109 consecutive patients (age 64 ± 16 years; 62% male) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and noncontrast chest CT imaging. Using semi-automated software, we quantified the burden (%) of lung abnormalities associated with COVID-19 pneumonia. EAT volume (mL) and attenuation (Hounsfield units) were measured using deep learning software. The primary outcome was clinical deterioration (intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, or vasopressor therapy) or in-hospital death.

RESULTS

In multivariable linear regression analysis adjusted for patient comorbidities, the total burden of COVID-19 pneumonia was associated with EAT volume (β = 10.6, p = 0.005) and EAT attenuation (β = 5.2, p = 0.004). EAT volume correlated with serum levels of lactate dehydrogenase (r = 0.361, p = 0.001) and C-reactive protein (r = 0.450, p < 0.001). Clinical deterioration or death occurred in 23 (21.1%) patients at a median of 3 days (IQR 1-13 days) following the chest CT. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, EAT volume (OR 5.1 [95% CI 1.8-14.1] per doubling p = 0.011) and EAT attenuation (OR 3.4 [95% CI 1.5-7.5] per 5 Hounsfield unit increase, p = 0.003) were independent predictors of clinical deterioration or death, as was total pneumonia burden (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.6, p = 0.002), chronic lung disease (OR 1.3 [95% CI 1.1-1.7], p = 0.011), and history of heart failure (OR 3.5 [95% 1.1-8.2], p = 0.037).

CONCLUSIONS

EAT measures quantified from chest CT are independently associated with extent of pneumonia and adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19, lending support to their use in clinical risk stratification.

Estimated impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia mortality in South Africa, 1999 through 2016: An ecological modelling study

BACKGROUND

Data on the national-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction on mortality are lacking from Africa. PCV was introduced in South Africa in 2009. We estimated the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in South Africa, while controlling for changes in mortality due to other interventions.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used national death registration data in South Africa from 1999 to 2016 to assess the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in all ages, with the exclusion of infants aged <1 month. We created a composite (synthetic) control using Bayesian variable selection of nondiarrheal, nonpneumonia, and nonpneumococcal deaths to estimate the number of expected all-cause pneumonia deaths in the absence of PCV introduction post 2009. We compared all-cause pneumonia deaths from the death registry to the expected deaths in 2012 to 2016. We also estimated the number of prevented deaths during 2009 to 2016. Of the 9,324,638 deaths reported in South Africa from 1999 to 2016, 12·6% were pneumonia-related. Compared to number of deaths expected, we estimated a 33% (95% credible interval (CrI) 26% to 43%), 23% (95%CrI 17% to 29%), 25% (95%CrI 19% to 32%), and 23% (95%CrI 11% to 32%) reduction in pneumonia mortality in children aged 1 to 11 months, 1 to 4 years, 5 to 7 years, and 8 to 18 years in 2012 to 2016, respectively. In total, an estimated 18,422 (95%CrI 12,388 to 26,978) pneumonia-related deaths were prevented from 2009 to 2016 in children aged <19 years. No declines were estimated observed among adults following PCV introduction. This study was mainly limited by coding errors in original data that could have led to a lower impact estimate, and unmeasured factors could also have confounded estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that the introduction of PCV was associated with substantial reduction in all-cause pneumonia deaths in children aged 1 month to <19 years. The model predicted an effect of PCV in age groups who were eligible for vaccination (1 months to 4 years), and an indirect effect in those too old (8 to 18 years) to be vaccinated. These findings support sustaining pneumococcal vaccination to reduce pneumonia-related mortality in children.

Calculated decisions: PSI/PORT score: pneumonia severity index for community-acquired pneumonia

A review of the uses and evidence for the PSI/PORT score, which estimates mortality for adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

Calculated decisions: SMART-COP score for pneumonia severity

A review of the uses and evidence for the SMART-COP score, which predicts the need for intensive respiratory or vasopressor support in community-acquired pneumonia.

Calculated decisions: CURB-65 score for pneumonia severity

A review of the uses and evidence for the the CURB-65 score, which estimates mortality risk for community-acquired pneumonia and helps guide inpatient versus outpatient treatment decisions.

Dementia and the risk of short-term readmission and mortality after a pneumonia admission

BACKGROUND

At time of discharge after a pneumonia admission, care planning for older persons with dementia is essential. However, care planning is limited by lack of knowledge on the short-term prognosis.

AIM

To investigate 30-day mortality and readmission after hospital discharge for pneumonia in persons with versus without dementia, and to investigate how these associations vary with age, time since discharge, and medication use.

METHODS

Using the Danish registries, we investigated 30-day mortality and readmission in persons (+65 years) discharged after pneumonia in 2000-2016 (N = 298,872). Adjusted mortality rate ratios (aMRRs) and incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) were calculated for persons with versus without dementia, and we investigated if these associations varied with use of benzodiazepines, opioids, and antipsychotics, and with age and time since discharge.

RESULTS

Among 25,948 persons with dementia, 4,524 died and 5,694 were readmitted within 30 days. The risk of 30-day mortality was 129% higher (95% CI 2.21-2.37) in persons with versus without dementia after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, admission-related factors, and comorbidities. Further, the highest mortality risk was found in persons with both dementia and use of antipsychotics (aMRR: 3.39, 95% CI 3.19-3.59); 16% of deaths in this group could not be explained by the independent effect of each exposure. In those with dementia, the highest aMRRs were found for the youngest and for the first days after discharge. The risk of 30-day readmission was 7% higher (95% CI 1.04-1.10) in persons with versus without dementia. In those with dementia, the highest aIRRs were found for the first days after discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Dementia was associated with higher short-term mortality after pneumonia, especially in users of antipsychotics, and with slightly higher readmission, especially in the first days after discharge. This is essential knowledge in the care planning for persons with dementia who are discharged after a pneumonia admission.

Community-setting pneumonia-associated hospitalizations by level of urbanization-New York City versus other areas of New York State, 2010-2014

Background

New York City (NYC) reported a higher pneumonia and influenza death rate than the rest of New York State during 2010–2014. Most NYC pneumonia and influenza deaths are attributed to pneumonia caused by infection acquired in the community, and these deaths typically occur in hospitals.

Methods

We identified hospitalizations of New York State residents aged ≥20 years discharged from New York State hospitals during 2010–2014 with a principal diagnosis of community-setting pneumonia or a secondary diagnosis of community-setting pneumonia if the principal diagnosis was respiratory failure or sepsis. We examined mean annual age-adjusted community-setting pneumonia-associated hospitalization (CSPAH) rates and proportion of CSPAH with in-hospital death, overall and by sociodemographic group, and produced a multivariable negative binomial model to assess hospitalization rate ratios.

Results

Compared with non-NYC urban, suburban, and rural areas of New York State, NYC had the highest mean annual age-adjusted CSPAH rate at 475.3 per 100,000 population and the highest percentage of CSPAH with in-hospital death at 13.7%. NYC also had the highest proportion of CSPAH patients residing in higher-poverty-level areas. Adjusting for age, sex, and area-based poverty, NYC residents experienced 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–1.4), non-NYC urban residents 1.4 (95% CI, 1.3–1.6), and suburban residents 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1–1.3) times the rate of CSPAH than rural residents.

Conclusions

In New York State, NYC as well as other urban areas and suburban areas had higher rates of CSPAH than rural areas. Further research is needed into drivers of CSPAH deaths, which may be associated with poverty.

Amenable mortality within the New Zealand homeless population: we can do better!

AIM

To describe the context surrounding the deaths of homeless people in New Zealand and to determine the proportion of deaths that could be considered amenable to healthcare.

METHOD

We used coroners' findings related to 171 deaths of persons with "no fixed abode" at the time of death, from 2008 to 2019. Recent lists of amenable mortality from the New Zealand Ministry of Health and the Office of National Statistics in the UK were combined to determine the rate of amenable mortality.

RESULTS

The life expectancy of homeless persons identified in this sample was 30 years shorter than in the housed population, with a mean age of death of 45.7 years. Deaths occurred mainly alone, in public spaces (56.1%) or in private vehicles (14%). Three-quarters (75.8%) of homeless persons died from conditions amenable to timely and effective healthcare interventions, mostly from natural causes (45.7%) and suicide (41.5%).

CONCLUSION

Homeless people experience considerable challenges when accessing the healthcare system, as uncovered by the dramatic rate of amenable mortality. Our findings highlight the urgent need to implement specific models of care that are designed to meet the social and healthcare needs of homeless persons and address the significant health inequalities they experience.

Underreporting of Death by COVID-19 in Brazil's Second Most Populous State

The COVID-19 pandemic brings to light the reality of the Brazilian health system. The underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in the state of Minas Gerais (MG), where the second largest population of the country is concentrated, reveals government unpreparedness, as there is a low capacity of testing in the population, which prevents the real understanding of the general panorama of SARS-CoV-2 dissemination. The goals of this research are to analyze the causes of deaths in different Brazilian government databases (Civil Registry Transparency Portal and InfoGripe) and to assess whether there are sub-records showing an unexpected increase in the frequency of deaths from causes clinically similar to COVID-19. A descriptive and quantitative analysis of the number of deaths by COVID-19 and similar causes was performed in different databases. Our results demonstrate that different official sources had a discrepancy of 109.45% between these data referring to the same period. There was also a 758.57% increase in SARI deaths in 2020, when compared to the average of previous years. Finally, it was shown that there was an increase in the rate of pneumonia and respiratory insufficiency (RI) by 6.34 and 6.25%, respectively. In conclusion, there is an underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in MG due to the unexplained excess of deaths caused by SARI, respiratory insufficiency, and pneumonia compared to previous years.

Evaluation of Changes in Veterans Affairs Medical Centers' Mortality Rates After Risk Adjustment for Socioeconomic Status

IMPORTANCE

Socioeconomic factors are associated with worse outcomes after hospitalization, but neither the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) nor the Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system adjust for socioeconomic factors in profiling hospital mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate changes in Veterans Affairs medical centers' (VAMCs') risk-standardized mortality rates among veterans hospitalized for heart failure and pneumonia after adjusting for socioeconomic factors.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional study, retrospective data were used to assess 131 VAMCs' risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates with or without adjustment for socioeconomic covariates. The study population included 42 892 veterans hospitalized with heart failure and 39 062 veterans hospitalized with pneumonia from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2014. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2019, to April 1, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was 30-day mortality after admission. Socioeconomic covariates included neighborhood disadvantage, race/ethnicity, homelessness, rurality, nursing home residence, reason for Medicare eligibility, Medicaid and Medicare dual eligibility, and VA priority.

RESULTS

The study population included 42 892 veterans hospitalized with heart failure (98.2% male; mean [SD] age, 71.9 [11.4] years) and 39 062 veterans hospitalized with pneumonia (96.8% male; mean [SD] age, 71.0 [12.4] years). The addition of socioeconomic factors to the CMS models modestly increased the C statistic from 0.77 (95% CI, 0.77-0.78) to 0.78 (95% CI, 0.78-0.78) for 30-day mortality after heart failure and from 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72-0.73) to 0.74 (95% CI, 0.73-0.74) for 30-day mortality after pneumonia. Mortality rates were highly correlated (Spearman correlations of ≥0.98) in models that included or did not include socioeconomic factors. With the use of the CMS model for heart failure, VAMCs in the lowest quintile had a mean (SD) mortality rate of 6.0% (0.4%), those in the middle 3 quintiles had a mean (SD) mortality rate of 7.2% (0.4%), and those in the highest quintile had a mean (SD) mortality rate of 8.8% (0.6%). After the inclusion of socioeconomic covariates, the adjusted mean (SD) mortality was 6.1% (0.4%) for hospitals in the lowest quintile, 7.2% (0.4%) for those in the middle 3 quintiles, and 8.6% (0.5%) for those in the highest quintile. The mean absolute change in rank after socioeconomic adjustment was 3.0 ranking positions (interquartile range, 1.0-4.0) among hospitals in the highest quintile of mortality after heart failure and 4.4 ranking positions (interquartile range, 1.0-6.0) among VAMCs in the lowest quintile. Similar findings were observed for mortality rankings in pneumonia and after inclusion of clinical covariates.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study suggests that adjustments for socioeconomic factors did not meaningfully change VAMCs' risk-adjusted 30-day mortality rates for veterans hospitalized for heart failure and pneumonia. The implications of such adjustments should be examined for other quality measures and health systems.

Environmental Cadmium and Mortality from Influenza and Pneumonia in U.S. Adults

BACKGROUND

Environmental cadmium exposure is widespread. In humans, cadmium is poorly excreted, triggers pulmonary inflammation, reduces pulmonary function, and enhances lung injury by respiratory syncytial virus.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association of cadmium burden with mortality related to influenza or pneumonia.

METHODS

This prospective analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) included 7,173 and 8,678 participants ≥ 45 years of age enrolled in NHANES-III and NHANES 1999-2006, respectively. Associations were evaluated between cadmium and mortality from influenza or pneumonia during a median follow-up of 17.3 y (NHANES-III, based on creatinine-corrected urine cadmium) and 11.4 y (NHANES 1999-2006, based on blood cadmium). Survey-weighted Cox proportional hazard models were used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) comparing the mortality of individuals at the 80th vs. the 20th percentile of cadmium concentrations.

RESULTS

In NHANES-III, after adjustment for sex, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, serum cholesterol, hypertension, and NHANES phase (or cycle), the HR comparing influenza or pneumonia mortality among participants with creatinine-corrected urinary cadmium in the 80th vs. 20th percentile was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.26; p = 0.002 ) in the population as a whole and 1.27 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.43; p = 0.002 ) among never smokers. In NHANES 1999-2006, adjusted HRs for the 80th vs. 20th percentile of blood cadmium were 1.14 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.36; p = 0.15 ) for the overall population and 1.71 (95% CI: 0.95, 3.09; p = 0.07 ) in never smokers.

DISCUSSION

Among middle-aged and older adults in the United States, higher cadmium burdens are associated with higher mortality from influenza or pneumonia. This raises the possibility that cadmium may worsen outcomes from COVID-19 infections. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7598.

Risk factors for mortality from severe community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized children transferred to the pediatric intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Some children hospitalized due to severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) require to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) because of severe complications. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors for mortality in this patient population.

METHODS

This study evaluated the medical records of 113 hospitalized children with severe CAP, who were transferred to the PICU within 48 h of admission at the Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center between 2013 and 2017.

RESULTS

The study group consisted of 87 boys (77%) and 26 girls (33%), aged between 1 month and 9 years; 72.6% (82/113) of patients were aged <12 months. The mortality rate was 12.3% (14/113). The most common viral and bacterial pathogens isolated were adenovirus (17.7%, 20/113) and Haemophilus influenzae (8.8%, 10/113). Wheezing, cyanosis, oxygen saturation <90%, Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) >3 on admission, not receiving corticosteroid therapy prior to admission, the need for mechanical ventilation, septic shock, multi-organ dysfunction (MODS), and acute renal failure (ARF) occurring prior to transfer to the PICU, increased alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate transaminase (AST) levels, and decreased hemoglobin and albumin (ALB) levels were associated with mortality (P < 0.05). Non-survivors were more likely to have an oxygen saturation <90% on admission and lower levels of ALB prior to transfer to the PICU than survivors (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed that hospitalized children with severe CAP who were transferred to the PICU within 48 h of hospital admission were mainly aged <1 year. Additionally, an oxygen saturation <90% and decreased ALB levels were early prognostic variables independently associated with death.