Secondary attack rates and determinants of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) household transmission in Pakistan: A case-ascertained prospective, longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Households are considered ideal settings for studying the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease.

METHODS

A prospective study was conducted, based on the World Health Organization FFX protocol from October 2020 to January,2021. Household contacts of laboratory-confirmed index cases were followed up for their symptomatic history, nasal swabs for RT-PCR,and blood samples for anti-SARS CoV-2 antibodies were collected at enrollment and days 7, 14 and 28. We estimated secondary attack rate (SAR), effective household case cluster size and determinants of secondary infection among susceptible household contacts using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

We enrolled 77 index cases and their 543 contacts. Out of these, 252 contacts were susceptible at the time of enrollment. There were 77 household clusters, out of which, transmission took place in 20 (25.9%) giving rise to 34 cases. The acquired secondary attack rate (SAR) was 14.0% (95% CI 9.0-18.0). The effective household case cluster size was 0.46 (95%CI 0.33,0.56). Reported symptoms of nausea and vomiting (aOR, 7.9; 95% CI, 1.4-45.5) and fatigue (aOR, 9.3; 95% CI, 3.8-22.7) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a low SARS-CoV-2 secondary attack rate in the backdrop of high seroprevalence and asymptomatic transmission among households in Karachi, Pakistan.

Genomic analysis of clinical Aeromonas isolates reveals genetic diversity but little evidence of genetic determinants for diarrhoeal disease

Aeromonas spp. are associated with a number of infectious syndromes in humans including gastroenteritis and dysentery. Our understanding of the genetic diversity, population structure, virulence determinants and antimicrobial resistance of the genus has been limited by a lack of sequenced genomes linked to metadata. We performed a comprehensive analysis of the whole genome sequences of 447 Aeromonas isolates from children in Karachi, Pakistan, with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) and from matched controls without diarrhoea that were collected as part of the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). Human-associated Aeromonas isolates exhibited high species diversity and extensive antimicrobial and virulence gene content. Aeromonas caviae, A. dhankensis, A. veronii and A. enteropelogenes were all significantly associated with MSD in at least one cohort group. The maf2 and lafT genes that encode components of polar and lateral flagella, respectively, exhibited a weak association with isolates originating from cases of gastroenteritis.

Early to mid-pregnancy HbA1c levels and its association with adverse pregnancy outcomes in three low middle-income countries in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Hyperglycemia during pregnancy leads to adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Thus, strict monitoring of blood glucose levels is warranted. This study aims to determine the association of early to mid-pregnancy HbA1c levels with the development of pregnancy complications in women from three countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of the AMANHI (Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement) cohort, which enrolled 10,001 pregnant women between May 2014 and June 2018 across Sylhet-Bangladesh, Karachi-Pakistan, and Pemba Island-Tanzania. HbA1c assays were performed at enrollment (8 to < 20 gestational weeks), and epidemiological data were collected during 2-3 monthly household visits. The women were followed-up till the postpartum period to determine the pregnancy outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed the association between elevated HbA1c levels and adverse events while controlling for potential confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 9,510 pregnant women were included in the analysis. The mean HbA1c level at enrollment was found to be the highest in Bangladesh (5.31 ± 0.37), followed by Tanzania (5.22 ± 0.49) and then Pakistan (5.07 ± 0.58). We report 339 stillbirths and 9,039 live births. Among the live births were 892 preterm births, 892 deliveries via cesarean section, and 532 LGA babies. In the multivariate pooled analysis, maternal HbA1c levels of ≥ 6.5 were associated with increased risks of stillbirths (aRR = 6.3, 95% CI = 3.4,11.6); preterm births (aRR = 3.5, 95% CI = 1.8-6.7); and Large for Gestational Age (aRR = 5.5, 95% CI = 2.9-10.6).

CONCLUSION

Maternal HbA1c level is an independent risk factor for predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes such as stillbirth, preterm birth, and LGA among women in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These groups may benefit from early interventional strategies.

Environmental surveillance for COVID-19 using SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater - a study in District East, Karachi, Pakistan

Background

Wastewater-based surveillance is used to track the temporal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in communities. Viral RNA particle detection in wastewater samples can indicate an outbreak within a catchment area. We describe the feasibility of using a sewage network to monitor SARS-CoV-2 trend and use of genomic sequencing to describe the viral variant abundance in an urban district in Karachi, Pakistan. This was among the first studies from Pakistan to demonstrate the surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 from a semi-formal sewage system.

Methods

Four sites draining into the Lyari River in District East, Karachi, were identified and included in the current study. Raw sewage samples were collected early morning twice weekly from each site between June 10, 2021 and January 17, 2022, using Bag Mediated Filtration System (BMFS). Secondary concentration of filtered samples was achieved by ultracentrifugation and skim milk flocculation. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in the samples were estimated using PCR (Qiagen ProMega kits for N1 & N2 genes). A distributed-lag negative binomial regression model within a hierarchical Bayesian framework was used to describe the relationship between wastewater RNA concentration and COVID-19 cases from the catchment area. Genomic sequencing was performed using Illumina iSeq100.

Findings

Among the 151 raw sewage samples included in the study, 123 samples (81.5%) tested positive for N1 or N2 genes. The average SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in the sewage samples at each lag (1-14 days prior) were associated with the cases reported for the respective days, with a peak association observed on lag day 10 (RR: 1.15; 95% Credible Interval: 1.10-1.21). Genomic sequencing showed that the delta variant dominated till September 2022, while the omicron variant was identified in November 2022.

Interpretation

Wastewater-based surveillance, together with genomic sequencing provides valuable information for monitoring the community temporal trend of SARS-CoV-2.

Funding

PATH, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Global Innovation Fund.

Strain features of pneumococcal isolates in the pre- and post-PCV10 era in Pakistan

Pakistan is amongst the four countries with the highest number of pneumococcal deaths. While the PCV10 vaccine was introduced in Pakistan in October 2012, data regarding the impact of the vaccine on the population dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae in Pakistan remain obscure. Using whole genome sequencing of 190 isolates (nasopharyngeal carriage=75, disease=113, unknown sites=2) collected between 2002 and 2020, this study presents characteristics of pneumococcal strains in Pakistan in the pre- and post-vaccine era. The isolates were characterized on the basis of serotype distribution, genetic lineages (or Global Pneumococcal Sequence Cluster, GPSC) and antibiotic resistance. A high level of diversity in serotype and genetic lineages of pneumococci was observed in Pakistan. Among 190 isolates, we identified 54 serotypes, 67 GPSCs and 116 sequence types (STs) including 23 new STs. The most prevalent GPSCs and their associated serotypes in nasopharyngeal carriage were GPSC54 (expressing serotype 9V), GPSC5 (15A and 7B, and serogroup 24), GPSC25 (15B/15C), GPSC67 (18C) and GPSC376 (6A and 6D). Similarly, among 113 disease-causing isolates, the most prevalent GPSC/serotype combinations were GPSC2 (serotype 1), GPSC10 (serotypes 14, 10A, 19A and 19F), GPSC43 (serotypes 13, 11A, 23B, 35A and 9V), GPSC67 (serotypes 18A and 18C) and GPSC642 (serotype 11A). Of the 190 isolates, the highest levels of resistance were observed against penicillin (58.9 %, n=122), erythromycin (29.5 %, n=56), clindamycin (13.2 %, n=25), co-trimoxazole (94.2 %, n=179) and tetracycline/doxycycline (53.2 %, n=101). A higher proportion of disease-causing isolates were multidrug resistant as compared to carriage isolates (54 % vs 25 %). Our data suggest limited coverage of PCV10 in nasopharyngeal (21.6 %, 16/74) as well as disease-causing (38.1 %, 16/42) isolates among children ≤5 years old; however, higher valent vaccine PCV13 would increase the coverage rates to 33.8 % in nasopharyngeal and 54.8 % in disease-causing isolates, whereas PCV24/25 would offer the highest coverage rates. Owing to the diversity of serotypes observed during the post-vaccine period, the suggested inclusion of serotype in future vaccine formulations will require investigations with larger data sets with an extended temporal window. This article contains data hosted by Microreact.

Cohort profile: the Pregnancy Risk Infant Surveillance and Measurement Alliance (PRISMA) - Pakistan

PURPOSE

Pakistan has disproportionately high maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. There is a lack of detailed, population-representative data to provide evidence for risk factors, morbidities and mortality among pregnant women and their newborns. The Pregnancy Risk, Infant Surveillance and Measurement Alliance (PRISMA) is a multicountry open cohort that aims to collect high-dimensional, standardised data across five South Asian and African countries for estimating risk and developing innovative strategies to optimise pregnancy outcomes for mothers and their newborns. This study presents the baseline maternal and neonatal characteristics of the Pakistan site occurring prior to the launch of a multisite, harmonised protocol.

PARTICIPANTS

PRISMA Pakistan study is being conducted at two periurban field sites in Karachi, Pakistan. These sites have primary healthcare clinics where pregnant women and their newborns are followed during the antenatal, intrapartum and postnatal periods up to 1 year after delivery. All encounters are captured electronically through a custom-built Android application. A total of 3731 pregnant women with a mean age of 26.6±5.8 years at the time of pregnancy with neonatal outcomes between January 2021 and August 2022 serve as a baseline for the PRISMA Pakistan study.

FINDINGS TO DATE

In this cohort, live births accounted for the majority of pregnancy outcomes (92%, n=3478), followed by miscarriages/abortions (5.5%, n=205) and stillbirths (2.6%, n=98). Twenty-two per cent of women (n=786) delivered at home. One out of every four neonates was low birth weight (<2500 g), and one out of every five was preterm (gestational age <37 weeks). The maternal mortality rate was 172/100 000 pregnancies, the neonatal mortality rate was 52/1000 live births and the stillbirth rate was 27/1000 births. The three most common causes of neonatal deaths obtained through verbal autopsy were perinatal asphyxia (39.6%), preterm births (19.8%) and infections (12.6%).

FUTURE PLANS

The PRISMA cohort will provide data-driven insights to prioritise and design interventions to improve maternal and neonatal outcomes in low-resource regions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05904145.

Substitution spectra of SARS-CoV-2 genome from Pakistan reveals insights into the evolution of variants across the pandemic

Changing morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19 across the pandemic has been linked with factors such as the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination. Mutations in the Spike glycoprotein enhanced viral transmission and virulence. We investigated whether SARS-CoV-2 mutation rates and entropy were associated COVID-19 in Pakistan, before and after the introduction of vaccinations. We analyzed 1,705 SARS-CoV-2 genomes using the Augur phylogenetic pipeline. Substitution rates and entropy across the genome, and in the Spike glycoprotein were compared between 2020, 2021 and 2022 (as periods A, B and C). Mortality was greatest in B whilst cases were highest during C. In period A, G clades were predominant, and substitution rate was 5.25 × 10-4 per site per year. In B, Delta variants dominated, and substitution rates increased to 9.74 × 10-4. In C, Omicron variants led to substitution rates of 5.02 × 10-4. Genome-wide entropy was the highest during B particularly, at Spike E484K and K417N. During C, genome-wide mutations increased whilst entropy was reduced. Enhanced SARS-CoV-2 genome substitution rates were associated with a period when more virulent SARS-CoV-2 variants were prevalent. Reduced substitution rates and stabilization of genome entropy was subsequently evident when vaccinations were introduced. Whole genome entropy analysis can help predict virus evolution to guide public health interventions.

Newborn weight nomograms in selected low and middle-income countries

Growth impairment is common in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and may begin during early infancy, increasing morbidity and mortality. To ensure healthy infant growth, healthcare providers in high-income countries (HIC) track newborn weight change using tools developed and validated in HIC. To understand the utility of these tools for LMIC, we conducted a secondary analysis to compare weight trajectories in the first 5 days of life among newborns born in our LMIC cohort to an existing HIC newborn weight tool designed to track early weight change. Between April 2019 and March 2020, a convenience sample of 741 singleton healthy breastfeeding newborns who weighed ≥ 2000 g at birth were enrolled at selected health facilities in Guinea-Bissau, Nepal, Pakistan, and Uganda. Using a standardized protocol, newborn weights were obtained within 6 h of birth and at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 days, and nomograms depicting newborn weight change were generated. The trajectories of early newborn weight change in our cohort were largely similar to published norms derived from HIC infants, with the exceptions that initial newborn weight loss in Guinea-Bissau was more pronounced than HIC norms and newborn weight gain following weight nadir was more pronounced in Guinea-Bissau, Pakistan, and Uganda than HIC norms. These data demonstrate that HIC newborn weight change tools may have utility in LMIC settings.

Sequential viral introductions and spread of BA.1 across Pakistan provinces during the Omicron wave

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 waves caused by specific SARS-CoV-2 variants have occurred globally at different times. We focused on Omicron variants to understand the genomic diversity and phylogenetic relatedness of SARS-CoV-2 strains in various regions of Pakistan.

METHODS

We studied 276,525 COVID-19 cases and 1,031 genomes sequenced from December 2021 to August 2022. Sequences were analyzed and visualized using phylogenetic trees.

RESULTS

The highest case numbers and deaths were recorded in Sindh and Punjab, the most populous provinces in Pakistan. Omicron variants comprised 93% of all genomes, with BA.2 (32.6%) and BA.5 (38.4%) predominating. The first Omicron wave was associated with the sequential identification of BA.1 in Sindh, then Islamabad Capital Territory, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK), Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Balochistan. Phylogenetic analysis revealed Sindh to be the source of BA.1 and BA.2 introductions into Punjab and Balochistan during early 2022. BA.4 was first introduced in AJK and BA.5 in Punjab. Most recent common ancestor (MRCA) analysis revealed relatedness between the earliest BA.1 genome from Sindh with Balochistan, AJK, Punjab and ICT, and that of first BA.1 from Punjab with strains from KPK and GB.

CONCLUSIONS

Phylogenetic analysis provides insights into the introduction and transmission dynamics of the Omicron variant in Pakistan, identifying Sindh as a hotspot for viral dissemination. Such data linked with public health efforts can help limit surges of new infections.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices toward seasonal influenza vaccination among healthcare workers and pregnant women in Pakistan: A mixed methods approach

Vaccine hesitancy is a significant public health issue globally. We aim to document the barriers toward seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among healthcare workers (HCWs) and pregnant women (PW) in Pakistan. We performed a concurrent mixed methods study in four cities (Karachi, Islamabad, Quetta, and Peshawar) across Pakistan from September to December 2021. The quantitative component consisted of independent cross-sectional surveys for PW and HCWs, and the qualitative component comprised of in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) among HCWs. Simple linear regression was used to determine the association of sociodemographic variables with knowledge, attitudes, and practices. Overall, 750 PW and 420 HCWs were enrolled. Among the PW, 44% were willing to receive the vaccine if available free of cost. Only 44% of the HCWs were vaccinated; however, 86% intended to get vaccinated and were willing to recommend the vaccine to their patients. HCWs refused vaccine due to side-effects (65%), cost (57%), and allergies (36%). An education level of secondary school and above was predictive of higher attitude and knowledge scores while having received the COVID-19 vaccine was associated with higher practice scores for both PW and HCWs. Several themes emerged from the interviews: 1) HCWs' knowledge of influenza and its prevention, 2) HCWs' perception of motivators and barriers to influenza vaccine uptake and 3) HCWs' attitudes towrd vaccine promotion. We report low influenza vaccine coverage among HCWs and PW in Pakistan. Educational campaigns addressing misconceptions, and improving affordability and accessibility through government interventions, can improve vaccine uptake.

Multiomic signals associated with maternal epidemiological factors contributing to preterm birth in low- and middle-income countries

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of death in children under five, yet comprehensive studies are hindered by its multiple complex etiologies. Epidemiological associations between PTB and maternal characteristics have been previously described. This work used multiomic profiling and multivariate modeling to investigate the biological signatures of these characteristics. Maternal covariates were collected during pregnancy from 13,841 pregnant women across five sites. Plasma samples from 231 participants were analyzed to generate proteomic, metabolomic, and lipidomic datasets. Machine learning models showed robust performance for the prediction of PTB (AUROC = 0.70), time-to-delivery (r = 0.65), maternal age (r = 0.59), gravidity (r = 0.56), and BMI (r = 0.81). Time-to-delivery biological correlates included fetal-associated proteins (e.g., ALPP, AFP, and PGF) and immune proteins (e.g., PD-L1, CCL28, and LIFR). Maternal age negatively correlated with collagen COL9A1, gravidity with endothelial NOS and inflammatory chemokine CXCL13, and BMI with leptin and structural protein FABP4. These results provide an integrated view of epidemiological factors associated with PTB and identify biological signatures of clinical covariates affecting this disease.

Co-carriage of Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae among children younger than 2 years of age in a rural population in Pakistan

Objectives

Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae are common colonizers of the human nasopharynx. In this study, we describe S. aureus nasopharyngeal carriage and evaluate its association with S. pneumoniae carriage post-10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) introduction in Pakistan.

Methods

A serial cross-sectional study was undertaken from 2014 to 2018, children <2 years were randomly selected, and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected using standard WHO guidelines. S. aureus and S. pneumoniae isolates were identified using standard methods and tested for antimicrobial susceptibility by the standard Kirby-Bauer disk-diffusion method as per Clinical & Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) recommendations. Regression analysis was used to determine predictors associated with S. aureus carriage.

Results

We enrolled 3140 children. S. aureus carriage prevalence was 5.6% (176/3140), and 50.1% (81/176) of the isolates were methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). S. aureus carriage was higher in the absence of pneumococcus compared to isolates in which pneumococcus was present (7.5% vs 5.0%). S. aureus carriage was negatively associated with pneumococcal carriage, being in 3rd and 4th year of enrollment, and vaccination with two and three PCV10 doses, in addition, fast breathing, ≥2 outpatients visits, and rainy season were positively associated. The following resistance rates were observed: 98.9% for penicillin, 74.4% for fusidic acid, and 23.3% for gentamicin, 10.2% for erythromycin, and 8.5% for cotrimoxazole. All isolates were susceptible to amikacin.

Conclusions

Overall S. aureus carriage prevalence was low, PCV10 vaccine was protective against the carriage. The proportion of MRSA carriage and antimicrobial resistance was high in this community warranting continuous monitoring for invasive infections.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards seasonal influenza vaccination among pregnant women and healthcare workers: A cross‐sectional survey in Afghanistan

Background

Despite recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO), influenza vaccination coverage among high‐risk groups remains suboptimal in Afghanistan. This study aims to document the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among two priority groups, pregnant women (PWs) and healthcare workers (HCWs).

Methods

This cross‐sectional study enrolled PWs and HCWs in Kabul, Afghanistan, from September to December 2021. Data on vaccine intention and uptake, knowledge, and attitudes towards vaccination were collected. Simple linear regression was used to predict the impact of sociodemographic characteristics on the KAP score.

Results

A total of 420 PWs were enrolled in Afghanistan. The majority (89%) of these women had never heard of the influenza vaccine but 76% intended to receive the vaccine. Of the 220 HCWs enrolled, 88% were unvaccinated. Accessibility and cost were factors which encouraged vaccination among HCWs. Fear of side effects and affordability were identified as key barriers. HCWs reported high level of vaccine intention (93%). PWs aged under 18 years (β: 6.5, P = 0.004), between 18 and 24 years (β: 2.9, P = 0.014), currently employed (β: 5.8, P = 0.004), and vaccinated against COVID‐19 (β: 2.8, P = 0.01) were likely to have a higher attitude score. Among HCWs, being female was a predictor for poor vaccination practice (β: −1.33, P < 0.001) whereas being vaccinated against COVID‐19 was a predictor for higher practice score (β: 2.4, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

To increase influenza vaccination coverage among priority groups, efforts should be made to address issues such as lack of knowledge, limited availability, and cost barriers.

Differential coverage for vaccines in the expanded program on immunization (EPI) among children in rural Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Pakistan has a well-established Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) however vaccine-preventable diseases still account for high infant and child mortality rates. This study describes the differential vaccine coverage and determinants of vaccine uptake in rural Pakistan.

METHODS

From October 2014 to September 2018, we enrolled children younger than 2 years of age from the Matiari Demographic Surveillance System in Sindh, Pakistan. Socio-demographic and vaccination history were collected from all participants. Vaccine coverage rates and timeliness were reported. Socio-demographic variables for missed and untimely vaccination were studied in multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of the 3140 enrolled children, 48.4 % received all EPI recommended vaccines. Only 21.2 % of these were age appropriate. Around 45.4 % of the children were partially vaccinated, and 6.2 % were unvaccinated. Highest coverage was seen for the first dose of pentavalent (72.8 %), 10-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV10) (70.4 %) and Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) (69.2 %) and the lowest coverage was for measles (29.3 %) and rotavirus (1.8 %) vaccines. Primary caretakers and wage earners with a higher level of education were protective against missed and untimely vaccination. Enrollment in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th study year was negatively associated with being unvaccinated whereas distance from a major road was positively associated with non-adherence to schedule.

CONCLUSION

Vaccine coverage was low among children in Matiari, Pakistan, and majority received delayed doses. Parents' education status and year of study enrollment was protective against vaccine dropout and delayed vaccination whereas geographical distance from a major road was a predictor. Vaccine promotion and outreach efforts may have had a beneficial impact on vaccine coverage and timeliness.

Harmonization of maternal balanced energy-protein supplementation studies for individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses - finding and creating similarities in variables and data collection

BACKGROUND

Public health and clinical recommendations are established from systematic reviews and retrospective meta-analyses combining effect sizes, traditionally, from aggregate data and more recently, using individual participant data (IPD) of published studies. However, trials often have outcomes and other meta-data that are not defined and collected in a standardized way, making meta-analysis problematic. IPD meta-analysis can only partially fix the limitations of traditional, retrospective, aggregate meta-analysis; prospective meta-analysis further reduces the problems.

METHODS

We developed an initiative including seven clinical intervention studies of balanced energy-protein (BEP) supplementation during pregnancy and/or lactation that are being conducted (or recently concluded) in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, India, Nepal, and Pakistan to test the effect of BEP on infant and maternal outcomes. These studies were commissioned after an expert consultation that designed recommendations for a BEP product for use among pregnant and lactating women in low- and middle-income countries. The initiative goal is to harmonize variables across studies to facilitate IPD meta-analyses on closely aligned data, commonly called prospective meta-analysis. Our objective here is to describe the process of harmonizing variable definitions and prioritizing research questions. A two-day workshop of investigators, content experts, and advisors was held in February 2020 and harmonization activities continued thereafter. Efforts included a range of activities from examining protocols and data collection plans to discussing best practices within field constraints. Prior to harmonization, there were many similar outcomes and variables across studies, such as newborn anthropometry, gestational age, and stillbirth, however, definitions and protocols differed. As well, some measurements were being conducted in several but not all studies, such as food insecurity. Through the harmonization process, we came to consensus on important shared variables, particularly outcomes, added new measurements, and improved protocols across studies.

DISCUSSION

We have fostered extensive communication between investigators from different studies, and importantly, created a large set of harmonized variable definitions within a prospective meta-analysis framework. We expect this initiative will improve reporting within each study in addition to providing opportunities for a series of IPD meta-analyses.

Protocol for validation of the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) for children under 3 years of age in seven countries

INTRODUCTION

Children's early development is affected by caregiving experiences, with lifelong health and well-being implications. Governments and civil societies need population-based measures to monitor children's early development and ensure that children receive the care needed to thrive. To this end, the WHO developed the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) to measure children's early development up to 3 years of age. The GSED includes three measures for population and programmatic level measurement: (1) short form (SF) (caregiver report), (2) long form (LF) (direct administration) and (3) psychosocial form (PF) (caregiver report). The primary aim of this protocol is to validate the GSED SF and LF. Secondary aims are to create preliminary reference scores for the GSED SF and LF, validate an adaptive testing algorithm and assess the feasibility and preliminary validity of the GSED PF.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct the validation in seven countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Pakistan, The Netherlands, People's Republic of China, United Republic of Tanzania), varying in geography, language, culture and income through a 1-year prospective design, combining cross-sectional and longitudinal methods with 1248 children per site, stratified by age and sex. The GSED generates an innovative common metric (Developmental Score: D-score) using the Rasch model and a Development for Age Z-score (DAZ). We will evaluate six psychometric properties of the GSED SF and LF: concurrent validity, predictive validity at 6 months, convergent and discriminant validity, and test-retest and inter-rater reliability. We will evaluate measurement invariance by comparing differential item functioning and differential test functioning across sites.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has received ethical approval from the WHO (protocol GSED validation 004583 20.04.2020) and approval in each site. Study results will be disseminated through webinars and publications from WHO, international organisations, academic journals and conference proceedings.

REGISTRATION DETAILS

Open Science Framework https://osf.io/ on 19 November 2021 (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/KX5T7; identifier: osf-registrations-kx5t7-v1).

Identification of potential therapeutic intervening targets by in-silico analysis of nsSNPs in preterm birth-related genes

Prematurity is the foremost cause of death in children under 5 years of age. Genetics contributes to 25-40% of all preterm births (PTB) yet we still need to identify specific targets for intervention based on genetic pathways. This study involved the effect of region-specific non-synonymous variations and their transcript level mutational impact on protein functioning and stability by various in-silico tools. This investigation identifies potential therapeutic targets to manage the challenge of PTB, corresponding protein cavities and explores their binding interactions with intervening compounds. We searched 20 genes coding 55 PTB proteins from NCBI. Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) of concerned genes were extracted from ENSEMBL, and filtration of exonic variants (non-synonymous) was performed. Several in-silico downstream protein functional effect prediction tools were used to identify damaging variants. Rare coding variants were selected with an allele frequency of ≤1% in 1KGD, further supported by South Asian ALFA frequencies and GTEx gene/tissue expression database. CNN1, COL24A1, IQGAP2 and SLIT2 were identified with 7 rare pathogenic variants found in 17 transcript sequences. The functional impact analyses of rs532147352 (R>H) of CNN1 computed through PhD-SNP, PROVEAN, SNP&GO, PMut and MutPred2 algorithms showed impending deleterious effects, and the presence of this pathogenic mutation in CNN1 resulted in large decrease in protein structural stability (ΔΔG (kcal/mol). After structural protein identification, homology modelling of CNN1, which has been previously reported as a biomarker for the prediction of PTB, was performed, followed by the stereochemical quality checks of the 3D model. Blind docking approach were used to search the binding cavities and molecular interactions with progesterone, ranked with energetic estimations. Molecular interactions of CNN1 with progesterone were investigated through LigPlot 2D. Further, molecular docking experimentation of CNN1 showed the significant interactions at S102, L105, A106, K123, Y124 with five selected PTB-drugs, Allylestrenol (-7.56 kcal/mol), Hydroxyprogesterone caproate (-8.19 kcal/mol), Retosiban (-9.43 kcal/mol), Ritodrine (-7.39 kcal/mol) and Terbutaline (-6.87 kcal/mol). Calponin-1 gene and its molecular interaction analysis could serve as an intervention target for the prevention of PTB.

Opportunities and challenges to non-communicable disease (NCD) research and training in Pakistan: a qualitative study from Pakistan

INTRODUCTION

Most of the global non-communicable disease (NCD)-related death burden is borne by low and middle-income countries (LMICs). In LMICs like Pakistan, however, a major gap in responding to NCDs is a lack of high-quality research leading to policy development and implementation of NCDs. To assess institutional opportunities and constraints to NCD research and training we conducted a situational analysis for NCD research and training at Aga Khan University Pakistan.

METHODS

We conducted a descriptive exploratory study using grounded theory as a qualitative approach: semistructured interviews of 16 NCD stakeholders (three excluded) and two focus group discussions with postgraduate and undergraduate trainees were conducted. A simple thematic analysis was done where themes were identified, and then recurring ideas were critically placed in their specific themes and refined based on the consensus of the investigators.

RESULTS

The major themes derived were priority research areas in NCDs; methods to improve NCD research integration; barriers to NCD research in LMICs like Pakistan; design of NCD research programme and career paths; and NCD prevention at mass level, policy and link to the government. In general, participants opined that while there was an appetite for NCD research and training, but few high-quality research training programmes in NCDs existed, such programmes needed to be established. The ideal NCD research and training programmes would have in-built protected time, career guidance and dedicated mentorship. Most participants identified cardiovascular diseases as a priority thematic area and health information technology and data science as key methodological approaches to be introduced into research training.

CONCLUSION

We conclude from this qualitative study on NCD research and training that high-quality research training programmes for NCDs are rare. Such programmes need to be established with in-built protected time, career guidance and mentorship for the trainees to improve their research capacity in Pakistan.

Profile: Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System in peri-urban areas of Karachi, Pakistan

A Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System (MCHSS) was set up by the department of pediatrics and child health, Aga Khan University, Pakistan in peri-urban areas of Karachi to provide a platform for various research projects. It was established in five low-socioeconomic communities in a stepwise manner between  2003 and 2014. The total area currently under surveillance is 18.6 km2 covering a population of 302,944. We maintain a record of all births, deaths, pregnancies, and migration events by two monthly household visits. Verbal autopsies for stillbirths, deaths of children under the age of five years and adult female deaths are also conducted. For over a decade, the MCHSS has been a platform for a variety of studies describing the burden of various infectious diseases like typhoid, pneumonia and diarrhea, evaluation of effectiveness of various treatment regimens for neonatal sepsis, assessment of the acceptance of hospitalized care, determination of the etiology of moderate to severe diarrhea, assessment of burden and etiology of neonatal sepsis and a multi-center cohort study measuring the burden of stillbirths, neonatal and maternal deaths. More recently we have also established a bio-repository of the well-characterized maternal and newborn cohort. Through a well-established MCHSS, we aim to provide concrete evidence base to guide policy makers to make informed decisions at local, national, and international levels.

Pneumococcal Carriage in Infants Post-PCV10 Introduction in Pakistan: Results from Serial Cross-Sectional Surveys

The 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine was introduced in Pakistan’s Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in 2013 as a 3 + 0 schedule without catchup. We conducted three annual cross-sectional surveys from 2014−2016 to measure vaccine-type (VT) carriage in infants from a rural part of Pakistan. Nasopharyngeal specimens were collected by random sampling of infants from two union councils of Matiari. Samples were then transported to the Infectious Disease Research Laboratory (IDRL) at the Aga Khan University within 6−8 h of collection. Serotypes were established using sequential multiplex PCR. Of the 665 children enrolled across three surveys, 547 were culture-positive for pneumococcus. VT carriage decreased from 21.8% in 2014 to 12.7% in 2016 (p-value for trend <0.001). Those who were not vaccinated or partially vaccinated were found to be at higher risk of carrying a VT serotype ((aOR 2.53, 95% CI 1.39, 4.63 for non-vaccinated) and (aOR 3.35, 95% CI 1.82, 6.16 for partially vaccinated)). On the other hand, being enrolled in the most recent survey was negatively associated with VT carriage (aOR 0.51, 95% CI 0.28, 0.93). We found that PCV10 was effective in decreasing the carriage of vaccine-type serotypes in Pakistani infants.

Serotype-specific effectiveness against pneumococcal carriage and serotype replacement after ten-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV10) introduction in Pakistan

Objective

Pakistan was one of the first South-Asian countries to introduce the ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) at the national level, using a 3+0 schedule without catchup, in 2013.

Methods

From 2014–18, fifteen children <2 years old were recruited every week in Matiari, Sindh, and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected. The samples were cultured, and pneumococcus was further serotyped through multiplex PCR at the Aga Khan University Hospital as per the method described by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, USA.

Results

Pneumococcus was detected in 2370/3140 (75%) children. Vaccine type (VT) and non-vaccine type (NVT) serotypes were carried by 379 and 1990 children. There was a significant decline in VT carriage (by 40.3%, p-value <0.001), whereas overall NVT carriage remained the same. The prevalence of VT serotypes 6B, 9V/9A, and 19F showed a significant decline by 58.8%, 79.3%, and 56%, respectively. The prevalence of NVT serotypes 19A, 21, and 10A increased by 70%, 33.3%, and 65.6%, respectively, whereas serotypes 13 and 9N/9L decreased by 53.4% and 51.8%, respectively. Serotype-specific vaccine effectiveness estimates that reached statistical significance were for 9V/9A (VE = 65.0, 95% CI 26.0–83.5%), 19F (VE = 55.3, 95% CI 15.5–76.4%) and for the vaccine related serotype 6A (VE = 28.4, 95% CI 0.9–48.2%).

Conclusion

The emergence of NVT serotypes, primarily 19A replacing VT serotypes in this rural community, necessitates continuous monitoring of serotypes in the carriage and invasive disease to evaluate the utility of existing vaccine formulations.

Methods for estimating the direct and indirect effect of 10 valent pneumococcal vaccine on nasopharyngeal carriage in children under 2 years in Matiari, Pakistan

Pneumonia is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children worldwide. The ten valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in Pakistan's Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in 2012 as a 3 + 0 schedule without catchup immunization. Nasopharyngeal carriage is taken as a surrogate marker to measure the impact of pneumococcal vaccine on populations. Carriage surveys are necessary to monitor the persistence of Vaccine Type (VT) serotypes, the emergence of Non-Vaccine Type (NVT) serotypes, and their role in both transmission and disease. This article describes various troubleshooting measures which we undertook to adopt the protocol to our setting. We also used an innovative approach to describe various epidemiological parameters of vaccine effectiveness against carriage. It is important to publish these methods to allow for valid regional and temporal comparisons of results in different settings. Thus, in this article, we describe the following methods for isolating upper airway pneumococcal carriage:•Methods for the collection, transport, and storage of nasopharyngeal samples.•Methods for identification and serotyping of pneumococci.•Methods for estimation of the direct and indirect effects of pneumococcal vaccines on nasopharyngeal carriage.

Young infant clinical signs study--, Pakistan: a data note

Neonatal sepsis is the leading cause of child death globally with most of these deaths occurring in the first week of life. It is of utmost public health importance that clinical signs predictive of severe illness and need for referral are identified early in the course of illness. From 2002-2005, a multi country trial called the Young Infant Clinical Signs Study (YICSS) was conducted in seven sites across three South-Asian (Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan), two African (Ghana, and South Africa), and one South American (Bolivia) country. The study aimed to develop a simplified algorithm to be used by primary healthcare workers for the identification of sick young infants needing prompt referral and treatment. The main study enrolled 8,889 young infants between the ages of 0-59 days old. This dataset contains observations on 2950 young infants aged 0-59 days from the Pakistan site. The data was collected between 2003-2004 with information on the most prevalent signs and symptoms. The data from this study was used to update the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness guidelines. The World Health Organisation (WHO) seven-sign algorithm has been used in other major community-based trials to study possible serious bacterial infection and its treatment regimens.

Unveiling and addressing implementation barriers to routine immunization in the peri-urban slums of Karachi, Pakistan: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Great disparities in immunization coverage exist in Pakistan between urban and rural areas. However, coverage estimates for large peri-urban slums in Sindh are largely unknown and implementation challenges remain unexplored. This study explores key supply- and demand-side immunization barriers in peri-urban slums, as well as strategies to address them. It also assesses immunization coverage in the target slums.

METHODS

Conducted in four peri-urban slums in Karachi, this mixed-methods study consists of a baseline cross-sectional coverage survey of a representative sample of 840 caregivers of children aged 12-23 months, and 155 in-depth interviews (IDIs) through purposive sampling of respondents (caregivers, community influencers and immunization staff). After identifying the barriers, a further six IDIs were then conducted with immunization policy-makers and policy influencers to determine strategies to address these barriers, resulting in the development of an original validated implementation framework for immunization in peri-urban slums. A thematic analysis approach was applied to qualitative data.

RESULTS

The survey revealed 49% of children were fully vaccinated, 43% were partially vaccinated and 8% were unvaccinated. Demand-side immunization barriers included household barriers, lack of knowledge and awareness, misconceptions and fears regarding vaccines and social and religious barriers. Supply-side barriers included underperformance of staff, inefficient utilization of funds, unreliable immunization and household data and interference of polio campaigns with immunization. The implementation framework's policy recommendations to address these barriers include: (1) improved human resource management; (2) staff training on counselling; (3) re-allocation of funds towards incentives, outreach, salaries and infrastructure; (4) a digital platform integrating birth registry and vaccination tracking systems for monitoring and reporting by frontline staff; (5) use of digital platform for immunization targets and generating dose reminders; and (6) mutual sharing of resources and data between the immunization, Lady Health Worker and polio programmes for improved coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation framework is underpinned by the study of uncharted immunization barriers in complex peri-urban slums, and can be used by implementers in Pakistan and other developing countries to improve immunization programmes in limited-resource settings, with possible application at a larger scale. In particular, a digital platform integrating vaccination tracking and birth registry data can be expanded for nationwide use.

Direct maternal morbidity and the risk of pregnancy-related deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa: A population-based prospective cohort study in 8 countries

BACKGROUND

Maternal morbidity occurs several times more frequently than mortality, yet data on morbidity burden and its effect on maternal, foetal, and newborn outcomes are limited in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to generate prospective, reliable population-based data on the burden of major direct maternal morbidities in the antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal periods and its association with maternal, foetal, and neonatal death in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This is a prospective cohort study, conducted in 9 research sites in 8 countries of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted population-based surveillance of women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years) to identify pregnancies. Pregnant women who gave consent were include in the study and followed up to birth and 42 days postpartum from 2012 to 2015. We used standard operating procedures, data collection tools, and training to harmonise study implementation across sites. Three home visits during pregnancy and 2 home visits after birth were conducted to collect maternal morbidity information and maternal, foetal, and newborn outcomes. We measured blood pressure and proteinuria to define hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and woman's self-report to identify obstetric haemorrhage, pregnancy-related infection, and prolonged or obstructed labour. Enrolled women whose pregnancy lasted at least 28 weeks or those who died during pregnancy were included in the analysis. We used meta-analysis to combine site-specific estimates of burden, and regression analysis combining all data from all sites to examine associations between the maternal morbidities and adverse outcomes. Among approximately 735,000 women of reproductive age in the study population, and 133,238 pregnancies during the study period, only 1.6% refused consent. Of these, 114,927 pregnancies had morbidity data collected at least once in both antenatal and in postnatal period, and 114,050 of them were included in the analysis. Overall, 32.7% of included pregnancies had at least one major direct maternal morbidity; South Asia had almost double the burden compared to sub-Saharan Africa (43.9%, 95% CI 27.8% to 60.0% in South Asia; 23.7%, 95% CI 19.8% to 27.6% in sub-Saharan Africa). Antepartum haemorrhage was reported in 2.2% (95% CI 1.5% to 2.9%) pregnancies and severe postpartum in 1.7% (95% CI 1.2% to 2.2%) pregnancies. Preeclampsia or eclampsia was reported in 1.4% (95% CI 0.9% to 2.0%) pregnancies, and gestational hypertension alone was reported in 7.4% (95% CI 4.6% to 10.1%) pregnancies. Prolonged or obstructed labour was reported in about 11.1% (95% CI 5.4% to 16.8%) pregnancies. Clinical features of late third trimester antepartum infection were present in 9.1% (95% CI 5.6% to 12.6%) pregnancies and those of postpartum infection in 8.6% (95% CI 4.4% to 12.8%) pregnancies. There were 187 pregnancy-related deaths per 100,000 births, 27 stillbirths per 1,000 births, and 28 neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births with variation by country and region. Direct maternal morbidities were associated with each of these outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings imply that health programmes in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia must intensify their efforts to identify and treat maternal morbidities, which affected about one-third of all pregnancies and to prevent associated maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study is not a clinical trial.

Serial population-based serosurveys for COVID-19 in two neighbourhoods of Karachi, Pakistan

OBJECTIVE

To determine population-based estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a densely populated urban community of Karachi, Pakistan.

METHODS

Three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in April, June and August 2020 in low- and high-transmission neighbourhoods. Participants were selected at random to provide blood for Elecsys immunoassay for detection of anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 antibodies. A Bayesian regression model was used to estimate seroprevalence after adjusting for the demographic characteristics of each district.

RESULTS

In total, 3005 participants from 623 households were enrolled in this study. In Phase 2, adjusted seroprevalence was estimated as 8.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1-13.1] and 15.1% (95% CI 9.4-21.7) in low- and high-transmission areas, respectively, compared with 0.2% (95% CI 0-0.7) and 0.4% (95% CI 0-1.3) in Phase 1. In Phase 3, it was 12.8% (95% CI 8.3-17.7) and 21.5% (95% CI 15.6-28) in low- and high-transmission areas, respectively. The conditional risk of infection was 0.31 (95% CI 0.16-0.47) and 0.41 (95% CI 0.28-0.52) in low- and high-transmission neighbourhoods, respectively, in Phase 2. Similar trends were observed in Phase 3. Only 5.4% of participants who tested positive for COVID-19 were symptomatic. The infection fatality rate was 1.66%, 0.37% and 0.26% in Phases 1, 2 and 3, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Continuing rounds of seroprevalence studies will help to improve understanding of secular trends and the extent of infection during the course of the pandemic.

Feasibility, usability and acceptability of paediatric lung ultrasound among healthcare providers and caregivers for the diagnosis of childhood pneumonia in resource-constrained settings: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

Paediatric pneumonia burden and mortality are highest in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC). Paediatric lung ultrasound (LUS) has emerged as a promising diagnostic tool for pneumonia in LMIC. Despite a growing evidence base for LUS use in paediatric pneumonia diagnosis, little is known about its potential for successful implementation in LMIC. Our objectives were to evaluate the feasibility, usability and acceptability of LUS in the diagnosis of paediatric pneumonia.

DESIGN

Prospective qualitative study using semistructured interviews SETTING: Two referral hospitals in Mozambique and Pakistan PARTICIPANTS: A total of 21 healthcare providers (HCPs) and 20 caregivers were enrolled.

RESULTS

HCPs highlighted themes of limited resource availability for the feasibility of LUS implementation, including perceived high cost of equipment, maintenance demands, time constraints and limited trained staff. HCPs emphasised the importance of policymaker support and caregiver acceptance for long-term success. HCP perspectives of usability highlighted ease of use and integration into existing workflow. HCPs and caregivers had positive attitudes towards LUS with few exceptions. Both HCPs and caregivers emphasised the potential for rapid, improved diagnosis of paediatric respiratory conditions using LUS.

CONCLUSIONS

This was the first study to evaluate HCP and caregiver perspectives of paediatric LUS through qualitative analysis. Critical components impacting feasibility, usability and acceptability of LUS for paediatric pneumonia diagnosis in LMIC were identified for initial deployment. Future research should explore LUS sustainability, with a particular focus on quality control, device maintenance and functionality and adoption of the new technology within the health system. This study highlights the need to engage both users and recipients of new technology early in order to adapt future interventions to the local context for successful implementation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03187067.

Impact of 10-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV10) on nasopharyngeal carriage in children 2 years of age: Data from a four-year time series cross-sectional study from Pakistan

The dataset described in this paper was collected for a time-series cross-sectional study exploring the impact of 10-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV10) on nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage in children under 2 years of age from a rural population in Sindh, Pakistan. The study was carried out in two union councils of Matiari - Khyber and Shah Alam Shah Jee Wasi (Latitude 25.680298 / Longitude 68.502711). Data was collected on socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and vaccination status using android phone-based application. NP samples were collected using standard World Health Organisation (WHO) techniques, culture and serotyping was done using sequential Multiplex PCR described by Centre for Disease Control, USA. We looked at the carriage rate of vaccine type (VT) and non-vaccine type (NVT) serotypes over time in vaccinated and unvaccinated children. We additionally looked at the predictors for pneumococcal carriage. The uploaded dataset, available on Mendeley data repository (Nisar, Muhammad Imran (2021), “Impact of PCV10 on nasopharyngeal carriage in children in Pakistan”, Mendeley Data, V1, doi:10.17632/t79h6g97gr.1), has 3140 observations in CSV format. Additional files uploaded include a data dictionary and the set of questionnaires. The dataset and accompanying files can be used by other interested researchers to replicate our analysis, carry similar analysis under varying set of assumptions or perform additional exploratory or metanalysis

Performance of lung ultrasound in the diagnosis of pediatric pneumonia in Mozambique and Pakistan

INTRODUCTION

Improved pneumonia diagnostics are needed in low-resource settings (LRS); lung ultrasound (LUS) is a promising diagnostic technology for pneumonia. The objective was to compare LUS versus chest radiograph (CXR), and among LUS interpreters, to compare expert versus limited training with respect to interrater reliability.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, observational study among children with World Health Organization (WHO) Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) chest-indrawing pneumonia at two district hospitals in Mozambique and Pakistan, and assessed LUS and CXR examinations. The primary endpoint was interrater reliability between LUS and CXR interpreters for pneumonia diagnosis among children with WHO IMCI chest-indrawing pneumonia.

RESULTS

Interrater reliability was excellent for expert LUS interpreters, but poor to moderate for expert CXR interpreters and onsite LUS interpreters with limited training.

CONCLUSIONS

Among children with WHO IMCI chest-indrawing pneumonia, expert interpreters may achieve substantially higher interrater reliability for LUS compared to CXR, and LUS showed potential as a preferred reference standard. For point-of-care LUS to be successfully implemented for the diagnosis and management of pneumonia in LRS, the clinical environment and amount of appropriate user training will need to be understood and addressed.

Direct and indirect effect of 10 valent pneumococcal vaccine on nasopharyngeal carriage in children under 2 years of age in Matiari, Pakistan

Background

Pakistan introduced Ten-valent pneumococcal-conjugate-vaccine PCV10 in 2012 as a 3 + 0 schedule without catch-up.

Methods

Children <2 years old in Matiari, Sindh provided nasopharyngeal swabs between 2014 and 2018, which were cultured for pneumococcus and serotyped through multiplex PCR at the Aga Khan University Hospital. Carriage rates over time for Vaccine-Type (VT) and Non-VT (NVT) serotypes were used to estimate direct, indirect, total and overall effects of vaccination. Regression analysis was used to determine factors associated with VT carriage.

Results

Pneumococcus was detected in 2370/3140 (75%). VT carriage decreased overall, 16.1–9.6% (p-trend <0.001); vaccinated (all 3 doses of PCV10 received) 11.3–8.1% (p-trend 0.031) and unvaccinated (no PCV10 dose received) 17.4–10.3% (p-trend 0.003) with a decline in serotypes 6B, 9V/9A and 19F. Immunization increased from 41.0% to 68.4% (p-trend 0.001). Direct effect of vaccine was 32.8% (95% CI 14.7–47.0%) and indirect effect 44.6%(95% CI 40.6–48.6%). Factors associated with decreased VT colonization were education 1–5 years (aOR 0.7, 95%CI 0.6–1.0), history of difficulty breathing (aOR 0.7, 95%CI 0.5–1.0), exposure to smoke (aOR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6–1.0), child fully immunized (aOR 0.7, 95%CI 0.5–1.0) and enrolled in 3rd (aOR 0.6, 95%CI 0.4–0.8) and 4th (aOR 0.6, 95%CI 0.5–0.9) year of the study whereas history of runny nose (aOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2–1.9) was positively associated.

Conclusions

Decrease in VT pneumococcal carriage in vaccinated and unvaccinated children indicates herd immunity. Sustained increase in vaccine coverage and close long-term surveillance is warranted.

Multiomics Characterization of Preterm Birth in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

IMPORTANCE

Worldwide, preterm birth (PTB) is the single largest cause of deaths in the perinatal and neonatal period and is associated with increased morbidity in young children. The cause of PTB is multifactorial, and the development of generalizable biological models may enable early detection and guide therapeutic studies.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the ability of transcriptomics and proteomics profiling of plasma and metabolomics analysis of urine to identify early biological measurements associated with PTB.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This diagnostic/prognostic study analyzed plasma and urine samples collected from May 2014 to June 2017 from pregnant women in 5 biorepository cohorts in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs; ie, Matlab, Bangladesh; Lusaka, Zambia; Sylhet, Bangladesh; Karachi, Pakistan; and Pemba, Tanzania). These cohorts were established to study maternal and fetal outcomes and were supported by the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement and the Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth biorepositories. Data were analyzed from December 2018 to July 2019.

EXPOSURES

Blood and urine specimens that were collected early during pregnancy (median sampling time of 13.6 weeks of gestation, according to ultrasonography) were processed, stored, and shipped to the laboratories under uniform protocols. Plasma samples were assayed for targeted measurement of proteins and untargeted cell-free ribonucleic acid profiling; urine samples were assayed for metabolites.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The PTB phenotype was defined as the delivery of a live infant before completing 37 weeks of gestation.

RESULTS

Of the 81 pregnant women included in this study, 39 had PTBs (48.1%) and 42 had term pregnancies (51.9%) (mean [SD] age of 24.8 [5.3] years). Univariate analysis demonstrated functional biological differences across the 5 cohorts. A cohort-adjusted machine learning algorithm was applied to each biological data set, and then a higher-level machine learning modeling combined the results into a final integrative model. The integrated model was more accurate, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.91) compared with the models derived for each independent biological modality (transcriptomics AUROC, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.61-0.83]; metabolomics AUROC, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.47-0.72]; and proteomics AUROC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.64-0.85]). Primary features associated with PTB included an inflammatory module as well as a metabolomic module measured in urine associated with the glutamine and glutamate metabolism and valine, leucine, and isoleucine biosynthesis pathways.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found that, in LMICs and high PTB settings, major biological adaptations during term pregnancy follow a generalizable model and the predictive accuracy for PTB was augmented by combining various omics data sets, suggesting that PTB is a condition that manifests within multiple biological systems. These data sets, with machine learning partnerships, may be a key step in developing valuable predictive tests and intervention candidates for preventing PTB.

Nutritional support for lactating women with or without azithromycin for infants compared to breastfeeding counseling alone in improving the 6-month growth outcomes among infants of peri-urban slums in Karachi, Pakistan-the protocol for a multiarm assessor-blinded randomized controlled trial (Mumta LW trial)

Background

Globally, 45% of under-five deaths are either directly or indirectly attributable to malnutrition, and most of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Children are particularly vulnerable in the first 6 months of life. An estimated 4.7 million infants under the age of 6 months are moderately wasted, whereas 3.8 million are severely wasted. Although the children of malnourished women have an increased risk of stunting and wasting, there is little information on this issue.

Methods

This is a community-based, open-label, multiarm randomized controlled trial that will include parallel group assignments with a 1:1:1 allocation ratio in low-income squatter settlements in urban Karachi, Pakistan. The women in the control group (control arm) will receive standard counseling only, whereas the lactating women in the first intervention group (intervention arm 1) will receive two sachets of balanced energy protein (BEP) supplementation per day from enrollment until the infant reaches 6 months of age. The lactating women in the second intervention group (intervention arm 2) will receive the same BEP supplementation as those in intervention arm 1 while their babies will also receive a single stat dose (20 mg/kg orally) of azithromycin at 42 days. The primary outcome will be the relative length velocity from 0 to 6 months by intervention arm. The primary analysis will be intention-to-treat analysis.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03564652. Registered on 21 June 2018

Randomized Trial of Amoxicillin for Pneumonia in Pakistan

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends oral amoxicillin for patients who have pneumonia with tachypnea, yet trial data indicate that not using amoxicillin to treat this condition may be noninferior to using amoxicillin.

METHODS

We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled noninferiority trial involving children at primary health care centers in low-income communities in Karachi, Pakistan. Children who were 2 to 59 months of age and who met WHO criteria for nonsevere pneumonia with tachypnea were randomly assigned to a 3-day course of a suspension of amoxicillin (the active control) of 50 mg per milliliter or matched volume of placebo (the test regimen), according to WHO weight bands (500 mg every 12 hours for a weight of 4 to <10 kg, 1000 mg every 12 hours for a weight of 10 to <14 kg, or 1500 mg every 12 hours for a weight of 14 to <20 kg). The primary outcome was treatment failure during the 3-day course of amoxicillin or placebo. The prespecified noninferiority margin was 1.75 percentage points.

RESULTS

From November 9, 2014, through November 30, 2017, a total of 4002 children underwent randomization (1999 in the placebo group and 2003 in the amoxicillin group). In the per-protocol analysis, the incidence of treatment failure was 4.9% among placebo recipients (95 of 1927 children) and 2.6% among amoxicillin recipients (51 of 1929 children) (between-group difference, 2.3 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9 to 3.7). Results were similar in the intention-to-treat analysis. The presence of fever and wheeze predicted treatment failure. The number needed to treat to prevent one treatment failure was 44 (95% CI, 31 to 80). One patient (<0.1%) in each group died. Relapse occurred in 40 children (2.2%) in the placebo group and in 58 children (3.1%) in the amoxicillin group.

CONCLUSIONS

Among children younger than 5 years of age with nonsevere pneumonia, the frequency of treatment failure was higher in the placebo group than in the amoxicillin group, a difference that did not meet the noninferiority margin for placebo. (Funded by the Joint Global Health Trials Scheme [of the Department for International Development, Medical Research Council, and Wellcome] and others; RETAPP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02372461.).

Recurrence of WHO-defined fast breathing pneumonia among infants, its occurrence and predictors in Pakistan: a nested case-control analysis

OBJECTIVES

Studies in low-income and middle-income countries have shown an adverse association between environmental exposures including poverty. There is little literature from South Asia. We aimed to test the associations between housing, indoor air pollution and children's respiratory health and recurrent fast breathing pneumonia in a poor urban setting in Pakistan.

SETTING

Primary health centres in a periurban slum in Karachi, Pakistan.

METHODS

Nested matched case-control study within a non-inferiority randomised controlled trial of fast breathing pneumonia (Randomised Trial of Amoxicillin vs Placebo for Pneumonia (RETAPP)) in periurban slums of Karachi, Pakistan. Cases were children aged 2-60 months enrolled in RETAPP with fast breathing pneumonia who presented again with fast breathing between 8 weeks and 12 months after full recovery. Controls, selected in a 2:1 ratio, were age-matched participants who did not represent. Multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis was undertaken to explore associations with potentially modifiable environmental predictors including housing type, indoor air quality, exposure to tobacco smoke, outdoor pollution, household crowding, water and sanitation quality, nutritional status, immunisation completeness, breast feeding and airways hyperactivity.

RESULTS

Fast breathing recurred in 151 (3.7%) of children out of the total (4003) enrolled in the trial. Poor-quality housing of either katcha or mixed type strongly predicted recurrence with adjusted matched ORs 2.43 (95% CI 1.02 to 5.80) and 2.44 (1.11 to 5.38), respectively. Poor air quality, cooking fuel, inadequate ventilation, nutritional status, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) index, wheeze at first presentation and group of initial trial assignment were not independently predictive of recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Poor-quality housing independently predicted recurrence of fast breathing pneumonia.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02372461.

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years.

FINDINGS

Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1-87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1-74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2-15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6-10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8-8·4).

INTERPRETATION

Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae in children under 5 years of age before introduction of pneumococcal vaccine (PCV10) in urban and rural districts in Pakistan

Background

Benefits of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programs have been linked to the vaccine’s ability to disrupt nasopharyngeal carriage and transmission. The 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV10) was included in the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in Sindh, Pakistan in February 2013. This study was carried out immediately before PCV10 introduction to establish baseline pneumococcal carriage and prevalent serotypes in young children and to determine if carriage differed in urban and rural communities.

Methods

Nasopharyngeal specimens were collected from a random sample of children 3-11 and 12-59 months of age in an urban community (Karachi) and children 3-11 months of age in a rural community (Matiari). Samples were processed in a research laboratory in Karachi. Samples were transported in STGG media, enriched in Todd Hewitt broth, rabbit serum and yeast extract, cultured on 5% sheep blood agar, and serotyped using the CDC standardized sequential multiplex PCR assay. Serotypes were categorized into PCV10-type and non-vaccine types.

Results

We enrolled 670 children. Pneumococci were detected in 73.6% and 79.5 % of children in the infant group in Karachi and Matiari, respectively, and 78.2% of children 12 to 59 months of age in Karachi. In infants, 38.9% and 33.5% of those carrying pneumococci in Karachi and Matiari, respectively, had PCV10 types. In the older age group in Karachi, the proportion was 30.7%, not significantly different from infants. The most common serotypes were 6A, 23F, 19A, 6B and 19F.

Conclusion

We found that about 3 of 4 children carried pneumococci, and this figure did not vary with age group or urban or rural residence. Planned annual surveys in the same communities will inform change in carriage of PCV10 serotype pneumococci after the introduction and uptake of PCV10 in these communities

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3608-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Profile: Health and Demographic Surveillance System in peri-urban areas of Karachi, Pakistan

The Aga Khan University’s Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in peri urban areas of Karachi was set up in the year 2003 in four low socioeconomic communities and covers an area of 17.6 square kilometres. Its main purpose has been to provide a platform for research projects with the focus on maternal and child health improvement, as well as educational opportunities for trainees. The total population currently under surveillance is 249,128, for which a record of births, deaths, pregnancies and migration events is maintained by two monthly household visits. Verbal autopsies for stillbirths, deaths of children under the age of five years and adult female deaths are conducted. For over a decade, the HDSS has been a platform for a variety of studies  including, calculation of the incidence of various infectious diseases like typhoid bacteremia, pneumonia and diarrhea, evaluation of effectiveness of various treatment regimens for neonatal sepsis, assessment of the acceptance of hospitalized care, determination of the etiology of moderate to severe diarrhea, assessment of burden and etiology of neonatal sepsis and a multi-centre cohort study measuring the burden of stillbirths, neonatal and maternal deaths. We have also established a bio-repository of a well-defined maternal and newborn cohort. Through a well-established HDSS rooted in maternal and child health we aim to provide concrete evidence base to guide policy makers to make informed decisions at local, national and international levels.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Neonatal mortality within 24 hours of birth in six low- and lower-middle-income countries

Objective

To estimate neonatal mortality, particularly within 24 hours of birth, in six low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Methods

We analysed epidemiological data on a total of 149 570 live births collected between 2007 and 2013 in six prospective randomized trials and a cohort study from predominantly rural areas of Bangladesh, Ghana, India, Pakistan, the United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia. The neonatal mortality rate and mortality within 24 hours of birth were estimated for all countries and mortality within 6 hours was estimated for four countries with available data. The findings were compared with published model-based estimates of neonatal mortality.

Findings

Overall, the neonatal mortality rate observed at study sites in the six countries was 30.5 per 1000 live births (range: 13.6 in Zambia to 47.4 in Pakistan). Mortality within 24 hours was 14.1 per 1000 live births overall (range: 5.1 in Zambia to 20.1 in India) and 46.3% of all neonatal deaths occurred within 24 hours (range: 36.2% in Pakistan to 65.5% in the United Republic of Tanzania). Mortality in the first 6 hours was 8.3 per 1000 live births, i.e. 31.9% of neonatal mortality.

Conclusion

Neonatal mortality within 24 hours of birth in predominantly rural areas of six low- and lower-middle-income countries was higher than model-based estimates for these countries. A little under half of all neonatal deaths occurred within 24 hours of birth and around one third occurred within 6 hours. Implementation of high-quality, effective obstetric and early newborn care should be a priority in these settings.