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Standvoss K, Kazezian V, Lewke BR, Bastian K, Chidambaram S, Arafat S, Alsharif U, Herrera-Melendez A, Knipper AD, Seco BMS, Soto NN, Rakitzis O, Steinecker I, van Kronenberg Till P, Zarebidaki F, Abbasi P, Weissgerber TL. Shortcut citations in the methods section: Frequency, problems, and strategies for responsible reuse. PLoS Biol 2024; 22:e3002562. [PMID: 38564513 PMCID: PMC10986953 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3002562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Methods sections are often missing essential details. Methodological shortcut citations, in which authors cite previous papers instead of describing the method in detail, may contribute to this problem. This meta-research study used 3 approaches to examine shortcut citation use in neuroscience, biology, and psychiatry. First, we assessed current practices in more than 750 papers. More than 90% of papers used shortcut citations. Other common reasons for using citations in the methods included giving credit or specifying what was used (who or what citation) and providing context or a justification (why citation). Next, we reviewed 15 papers to determine what can happen when readers follow shortcut citations to find methodological details. While shortcut citations can be used effectively, they can also deprive readers of essential methodological details. Problems encountered included difficulty identifying or accessing the cited materials, missing or insufficient descriptions of the cited method, and shortcut citation chains. Third, we examined journal policies. Fewer than one quarter of journals had policies describing how authors should report previously described methods. We propose that methodological shortcut citations should meet 3 criteria; cited resources should provide (1) a detailed description of (2) the method used by the citing authors', and (3) be open access. Resources that do not meet these criteria should be cited to give credit, but not as shortcut citations. We outline actions that authors and journals can take to use shortcut citations responsibly, while fostering a culture of open and reproducible methods reporting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Standvoss
- Department of Psychiatry, Charité–Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience, Charité—Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Einstein Center for Neurosciences Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Vartan Kazezian
- QUEST Center for Responsible Research, Berlin Institute of Health at Charité–Universitätsmedizin–Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Britta R. Lewke
- Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Shambhavi Chidambaram
- Department of Life Sciences, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Berlin, Germany
| | - Subhi Arafat
- Einstein Center for Neurosciences Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Neurology, Charité—Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Ubai Alsharif
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Dortmund General Hospital, Dortmund, Germany
| | - Ana Herrera-Melendez
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Campus Benjamin Franklin, Charité–Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Anna-Delia Knipper
- German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR), Department of Biological Safety, Berlin, Germany
| | - Bruna M. S. Seco
- Former affiliation: Department of Biomolecular Systems, Max Planck Institute of Colloids and Interfaces, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Nina Nitzan Soto
- Institute du Cerveau–Paris brain institute (ICM), Paris, France; École doctorale Cerveau, cognition, comportement (ED3C), Sorbonne Université Paris, Paris, France
| | - Orestis Rakitzis
- Department of Psychiatry and Neurosciences, Charité–Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Isa Steinecker
- Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience, Charité—Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Biological Psychology and Neuroergonomics, Berlin Institute of Technology, Berlin, Germany
| | - Philipp van Kronenberg Till
- Berlin Institute of Health and Neuroscience Research Center, Charité–Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Fereshteh Zarebidaki
- Former affiliation: Institute of Neurophysiology, Charité—Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Parya Abbasi
- QUEST Center for Responsible Research, Berlin Institute of Health at Charité–Universitätsmedizin–Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Tracey L. Weissgerber
- QUEST Center for Responsible Research, Berlin Institute of Health at Charité–Universitätsmedizin–Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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Cunha ARD, Compton K, Xu R, Mishra R, Drangsholt MT, Antunes JLF, Kerr AR, Acheson AR, Lu D, Wallace LE, Kocarnik JM, Fu W, Dean FE, Pennini A, Henrikson HJ, Alam T, Ababneh E, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdoun M, Abidi H, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Adane TD, Addo IY, Ahmad A, Ahmad S, Ahmed Rashid T, Akonde M, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Al-Maweri SA, Alsharif U, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anwar SL, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Aruleba RT, Asaad M, Ashraf T, Athari SS, Attia S, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Badar M, Baghcheghi N, Banach M, Bardhan M, Barqawi HJ, Bashir NZ, Bashiri A, Benzian H, Bernabe E, Bhagat DS, Bhojaraja VS, Bjørge T, Bouaoud S, Braithwaite D, Briko NI, Calina D, Carreras G, Chakraborty PA, Chattu VK, Chaurasia A, Chen MX, Cho WCS, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Darwesh AM, Debela SA, Derbew Molla M, Dessalegn FN, Dianati-Nasab M, Digesa LE, Dixit SG, Dixit A, Djalalinia S, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Enyew DB, Erku DA, Ezzeddini R, Fagbamigbe AF, Falzone L, Fetensa G, Fukumoto T, Gaewkhiew P, Gallus S, Gebrehiwot M, Ghashghaee A, Gill PS, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gomez RS, Gorini G, Guimaraes ALS, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Halwani R, Hanif A, Hariyani N, Harorani M, Hasani H, Hassan AM, Hassanipour S, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Herrera-Serna BY, Holla R, Horita N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hussain S, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Isola G, Jaiswal A, Jani CT, Javaheri T, Jayarajah U, Jayaram S, Joseph N, Kadashetti V, Kandaswamy E, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khanali J, Khatib MN, Khayat Kashani HR, Khazeei Tabari MA, Kim MS, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Kumar GA, Kurmi OP, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Ledda C, Lee YH, Libra M, Lim SS, Listl S, Lopukhov PD, Mafi AR, Mahumud RA, Malik AA, Mathur MR, Maulud SQ, Meena JK, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mestrovic T, Mirfakhraie R, Misganaw A, Misra S, Mithra P, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi M, Mohammadi E, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Moraga P, Morrison SD, Mozaffari HR, Mubarik S, Murray CJL, Nair TS, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negru SM, Nggada HA, Nouraei H, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Olagunju AT, Omar Bali A, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pandey A, Pardhan S, Patel J, Pezzani R, Piracha ZZ, Rabiee N, Radhakrishnan V, Radhakrishnan RA, Rahmani AM, Rahmanian V, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rath GK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghinia MS, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Riad A, Roberts TJ, Romero-Rodríguez E, Roshandel G, S M, S N C, Saddik B, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safaei M, Sahebazzamani M, Sahebkar A, Salek Farrokhi A, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Šekerija M, Senthilkumaran S, Seylani A, Shafaat O, Shahsavari HR, Shamsoddin E, Sharew MM, Sharifi-Rad J, Shetty JK, Shivakumar KM, Shobeiri P, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Singh P, Singh JA, Singh G, Sinha DN, Solomon Y, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Taheri Abkenar Y, Talaat IM, Tan KK, Tbakhi A, Thiyagarajan A, Tiyuri A, Tovani-Palone MR, Unnikrishnan B, Vo B, Volovat SR, Wang C, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Xiao H, Yu C, Yuce D, Yunusa I, Zadnik V, Zare I, Zhang ZJ, Zoladl M, Force LM, Hugo FN. The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. JAMA Oncol 2023; 9:1401-1416. [PMID: 37676656 PMCID: PMC10485745 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.2960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023]
Abstract
Importance Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning. Objective To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. Evidence Review The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019. Findings In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia. Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kelly Compton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Rixing Xu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Data and Tooling, Sage Bionetworks, Seattle, Washington
| | - Rashmi Mishra
- Department of Oral Medicine, School of Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mark Thomas Drangsholt
- Department of Oral Medicine, School of Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle
- Oral Medicine Clinic, School of Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Alexander R Kerr
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Pathology, Radiology, and Medicine, College of Dentistry, New York University, New York, New York
| | - Alistair R Acheson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Dan Lu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lindsey E Wallace
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Jonathan M Kocarnik
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Weijia Fu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Frances E Dean
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Mathematics, University of California, Berkeley
| | - Alyssa Pennini
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Tahiya Alam
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Emad Ababneh
- Pathology and Laboratory Medicine Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Sherief Abd-Elsalam
- Tropical Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt
| | - Meriem Abdoun
- Department of Medicine, University of Setif Algeria, Setif, Algeria
| | - Hassan Abidi
- Laboratory Technology Sciences Department, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran
| | - Hiwa Abubaker Ali
- Department of Banking and Finance, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Eman Abu-Gharbieh
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Tigist Demssew Adane
- Department of Clinical and Psychosocial Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Isaac Yeboah Addo
- Centre for Social Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Quality and Systems Performance Unit, Cancer Institute NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Aqeel Ahmad
- Department of Medical Biochemistry, Shaqra University, Shaqra, Saudi Arabia
| | - Sajjad Ahmad
- Department of Health and Biological Sciences, Abasyn University, Peshawar, Pakistan
| | - Tarik Ahmed Rashid
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Kurdistan Hewler, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Maxwell Akonde
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia
| | - Hanadi Al Hamad
- Geriatric and Long Term Care Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Rumailah Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Fares Alahdab
- Evidence-Based Practice Center Program, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, Minnesota
| | - Yousef Alimohamadi
- Health Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Vahid Alipour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Health Economics, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Zahedan, Iran
| | - Sumadi Lukman Anwar
- Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | | | - Jalal Arabloo
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Aleksandr Y Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Applied Mathematics, College of Arts & Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Raphael Taiwo Aruleba
- Department of Molecular and Cell Biology, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Malke Asaad
- Department of Plastic Surgery, University of Texas, Houston
| | - Tahira Ashraf
- University Institute of Radiological Sciences and Medical Imaging Technology, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - Sameh Attia
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany
| | - Sina Azadnajafabad
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Muhammad Badar
- Gomal Center of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan
| | - Nayereh Baghcheghi
- Department of Nursing, Saveh University of Medical Sciences, Saveh, Iran
| | - Maciej Banach
- Department of Hypertension, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
- Polish Mothers' Memorial Hospital Research Institute, Lodz, Poland
| | - Mainak Bardhan
- Department of Molecular Microbiology and Bacteriology, National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases, Kolkata, India
- Department of Molecular Microbiology, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Hiba Jawdat Barqawi
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Nasir Z Bashir
- School of Oral and Dental Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, England, United Kingdom
| | - Azadeh Bashiri
- Health Information Management, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Habib Benzian
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, College of Dentistry, New York University, New York, New York
| | - Eduardo Bernabe
- Faculty of Dentistry, Oral & Craniofacial Sciences, King's College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Devidas S Bhagat
- Department of Forensic Chemistry, Government Institute of Forensic Science, Aurangabad, India
| | - Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja
- Department of Anatomy, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland Medical, University of Bahrain, Busaiteen, Bahrain
| | - Tone Bjørge
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | - Souad Bouaoud
- Department of Medicine, University Ferhat Abbas of Setif, Setif, Algeria
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, University Hospital Saadna Abdenour, Setif, Algeria
| | - Dejana Braithwaite
- Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions and College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville
- Cancer Control and Population Sciences Program, University of Florida Health Cancer Center, Gainesville
| | - Nikolay Ivanovich Briko
- Department of Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Daniela Calina
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
| | - Giulia Carreras
- Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network, Florence, Italy
| | - Promit Ananyo Chakraborty
- School of Population and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Vijay Kumar Chattu
- Department of Community Medicine, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Sawangi, India
- Saveetha Medical College and Hospitals, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences (SIMATS), Chennai, India
| | - Akhilanand Chaurasia
- Department of Oral Medicine and Radiology, King George's Medical University, Lucknow, India
| | - Meng Xuan Chen
- Department of Oral Biological and Medical Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - William C S Cho
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong, China
| | - Dinh-Toi Chu
- Center for Biomedicine and Community Health, International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Eunice Chung
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Natália Cruz-Martins
- Department of Therapeutic and Diagnostic Technologies, Polytechnic and University Higher Education Cooperative, Gandra, Portugal
- Institute for Research and Innovation in Health, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Omid Dadras
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Section Global Health and Rehabilitation, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Bergen, Norway
| | - Xiaochen Dai
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
- Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Rakhi Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland
- Department of Pathology, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | | | - Aso Mohammad Darwesh
- Department of Information Technology, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | | | | | - Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Madda Walabu University, Bale Goba, Ethiopia
| | - Mostafa Dianati-Nasab
- Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Lankamo Ena Digesa
- Department of Comprehensive Nursing, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia
| | - Shilpi Gupta Dixit
- Department of Anatomy, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Abhinav Dixit
- Department of Physiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Shirin Djalalinia
- Development of Research and Technology Center, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Iman El Sayed
- Department of Biomedical Informatics and Medical Statistics, Medical Research Institute, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Maha El Tantawi
- Department of Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health, Faculty of Dentistry, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | | | - Daniel Asfaw Erku
- Centre for Applied Health Economics, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - Rana Ezzeddini
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- The Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Luca Falzone
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit, National Cancer Institute IRCCS Fondazione G. Pascale, Naples, Italy
- Department of Biomedical and Biotechnological Sciences, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Getahun Fetensa
- Department of Nursing, College of Medical and Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
| | | | - Piyada Gaewkhiew
- Department of Community Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Thailand
- Population and Patient Health Group, King's College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Silvano Gallus
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Milan, Italy
| | - Mesfin Gebrehiwot
- Department of Environmental Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
| | - Ahmad Ghashghaee
- School of Public Health, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
| | - Paramjit Singh Gill
- Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, England, United Kingdom
| | - Mahaveer Golechha
- Department of Health Systems and Policy Research, Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, India
| | - Pouya Goleij
- Department of Genetics, Sana Institute of Higher Education, Sari, Iran
| | - Ricardo Santiago Gomez
- Department of Oral Surgery and Pathology, School of Dentistry, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Giuseppe Gorini
- Oncological Network, Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Bhawna Gupta
- Department of Public Health, Torrens University Australia, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sapna Gupta
- Toxicology Department, Shriram Institute for Industrial Research, Delhi, India
| | - Veer Bala Gupta
- School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Vivek Kumar Gupta
- Faculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Arvin Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Obesity Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Esam S Halboub
- College of Dentistry, Jazan University, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
- School of Dentistry, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - Rabih Halwani
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
- College of Medicine, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Asif Hanif
- University Institute of Public Health, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Ninuk Hariyani
- Department of Dental Public Health, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia
- Australian Research Centre for Population Oral Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Mehdi Harorani
- Department of Nursing, School of Nursing, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
| | - Hamidreza Hasani
- Department of Ophthalmology, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Abbas M Hassan
- Department of Plastic Surgery, University of Texas, Houston
| | - Soheil Hassanipour
- Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
- Caspian Digestive Disease Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Mohammed Bheser Hassen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- National Data Management Center for Health (NDMC), Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Khezar Hayat
- Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
- Department of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | | | - Ramesh Holla
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Nobuyuki Horita
- Department of Pulmonology, Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Japan
- National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
- Department of Computer Science, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Salman Hussain
- Czech National Centre for Evidence-Based Healthcare and Knowledge Translation, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
- Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi
- Department of Community Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Department of Community Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Irena M Ilic
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Milena D Ilic
- Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
| | - Gaetano Isola
- Department of General Surgery and Surgical-Medical Specialties, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Abhishek Jaiswal
- Centre for Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Chinmay T Jani
- Department of Internal Medicine, Mount Auburn Hospital, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
| | - Tahereh Javaheri
- Health Informatics Lab, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Umesh Jayarajah
- Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka
- Department of Surgery, National Hospital of Sri Lanka, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Shubha Jayaram
- Department of Biochemistry, Government Medical College, Mysuru, India
| | - Nitin Joseph
- Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Vidya Kadashetti
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Pathology, Krishna Vishwa Vidyapeeth (Deemed to be University), Karad, India
| | - Eswar Kandaswamy
- Department of Periodontics, School of Dentistry, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans
| | | | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- School of Health Professions and Human Services, Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York
| | - Joonas H Kauppila
- Surgery Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Mohammad Keykhaei
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Students' Scientific Research Center (SSRC), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yousef Saleh Khader
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | - Himanshu Khajuria
- Amity Institute of Forensic Sciences, Amity University, Noida, India
| | - Javad Khanali
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib
- Global Consortium for Public Health Research, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education and Research, Wardha, India
| | | | - Mohammad Amin Khazeei Tabari
- Department of Medicine, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- MAZUMS Office, Universal Scientific Education and Research Network, Tehran, Iran
| | - Min Seo Kim
- Department of Genomics and Digital Health, Samsung Advanced Institute for Health Sciences & Technology (SAIHST), Seoul, South Korea
- Public Health Center, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Wando, South Korea
| | - Farzad Kompani
- Children's Medical Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hamid Reza Koohestani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Saveh University of Medical Sciences, Saveh, Iran
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Om P Kurmi
- Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Coventry University, Coventry, England, United Kingdom
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Carlo La Vecchia
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | | | - Iván Landires
- Unit of Genetics and Public Health, Institute of Medical Sciences, Las Tablas, Panama
- Ministry of Health, Herrera, Panama
| | - Savita Lasrado
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Father Muller Medical College, Mangalore, India
| | - Caterina Ledda
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Yo Han Lee
- Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Massimo Libra
- Department of Biomedical and Biotechnological Sciences, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Stefan Listl
- Department of Dentistry, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
- Department of Translational Health Economics, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Platon D Lopukhov
- Department of Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Ahmad R Mafi
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rashidul Alam Mahumud
- NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Ahmad Azam Malik
- University Institute of Public Health, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
- Rabigh Faculty of Medicine, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Manu Raj Mathur
- Department of Health Policy Research, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
- Institute of Population Health Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, England, United Kingdom
| | - Sazan Qadir Maulud
- Department of Biology, College of Science, Salahaddin University, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Jitendra Kumar Meena
- Department of Preventive Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Tomislav Mestrovic
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- University Centre Varazdin, University North, Varazdin, Croatia
| | - Reza Mirfakhraie
- Department of Genetics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Awoke Misganaw
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- National Data Management Center for Health, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Sanjeev Misra
- Department of Surgical Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Prasanna Mithra
- Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Yousef Mohammad
- Internal Medicine Department, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mokhtar Mohammadi
- Department of Information Technology, Lebanese French University, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Esmaeil Mohammadi
- Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Faculty of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mohammad Ali Moni
- School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Shane Douglas Morrison
- Division of Facial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hamid Reza Mozaffari
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Medicine, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Sumaira Mubarik
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Hasan Nassereldine
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Zuhair S Natto
- Department of Dental Public Health, Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Oral Health Policy and Epidemiology, School of Dental Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | - Serban Mircea Negru
- Department of Oncology, Victor Babes University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Timisoara, Romania
| | - Haruna Asura Nggada
- Department of Histopathology, University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, Maiduguri, Nigeria
- Department of Human Pathology, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria
| | - Hasti Nouraei
- Department of Medical Mycology and Parasitology, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Virginia Nuñez-Samudio
- Unit of Microbiology and Public Health, Institute of Medical Sciences, Las Tablas, Panama
- Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Herrera, Panama
| | - Bogdan Oancea
- Department of Applied Economics and Quantitative Analysis, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Andrew T Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Clinical Science, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Ahmed Omar Bali
- Diplomacy and Public Relations Department, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | | | - Jagadish Rao Padubidri
- Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | | | - Shahina Pardhan
- Vision and Eye Research Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
| | - Jay Patel
- Global Health Governance Programme, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
- School of Dentistry, University of Leeds, Leeds, England, United Kingdom
| | - Raffaele Pezzani
- Endocrinology Unit, Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
- Associazione Italiana Ricerca Oncologica di Base (AIROB), Padova, Italy
| | | | - Navid Rabiee
- School of Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea
| | | | | | - Amir Masoud Rahmani
- Future Technology Research Center, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Yunlin, Taiwan
| | - Vahid Rahmanian
- Department of Public Health, Torbat Jam Faculty of Medical Sciences, Torbat Jam, Iran
| | - Chythra R Rao
- Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Manipal, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Sowmya J Rao
- Department of Oral Pathology and Microbiology, Sharavathi Dental College and Hospital, Shimogga, India
| | - Goura Kishor Rath
- Department of Radiation Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - David Laith Rawaf
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training, Imperial College London, London, England, United Kingdom
- Inovus Medical, St Helens, England, United Kingdom
| | - Salman Rawaf
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, England, United Kingdom
- Academic Public Health England, Public Health England, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Reza Rawassizadeh
- Department of Computer Science, College of Arts & Sciences, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia
- Department of Immunology and Laboratory Sciences, Sirjan School of Medical Sciences, Sirjan, Iran
- Department of Immunology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Nazila Rezaei
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Negar Rezaei
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Nima Rezaei
- Research Center for Immunodeficiencies, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Network of Immunity in Infection, Malignancy and Autoimmunity (NIIMA), Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN), Tehran, Iran
| | - Aziz Rezapour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abanoub Riad
- Department of Public Health, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
- Czech National Centre for Evidence-based Healthcare and Knowledge Translation, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Thomas J Roberts
- Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Esperanza Romero-Rodríguez
- Clinical and Epidemiological Research in Primary Care (GICEAP), Maimonides Biomedical Research Institute of Cordoba (IMIBIC), Cordoba, Spain
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Manjula S
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, JSS Academy of Higher Education and Research, Mysore, India
| | - Chandan S N
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, JSS Academy of Higher Education and Research, Mysore, India
| | - Basema Saddik
- Sharjah Institute for Medical Research, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Mohammad Reza Saeb
- Department of Polymer Technology, Faculty of Chemistry, Gdańsk University of Technology, Gdańsk, Poland
| | - Umar Saeed
- International Center of Medical Sciences Research, Islamabad, Pakistan
- Multidisciplinary Laboratory Foundation University School of Health Sciences (FUSH), Foundation University, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Mohsen Safaei
- Advanced Dental Sciences Research Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Maryam Sahebazzamani
- Department of Medical Biochemistry, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran
- Medical Laboratory Sciences, Sirjan School of Medical Sciences, Sirjan, Iran
| | - Amirhossein Sahebkar
- Applied Biomedical Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
- Biotechnology Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | | | - Abdallah M Samy
- Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
- Medical Ain Shams Research Institute (MARSI), Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Milena M Santric-Milicevic
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
- School of Public Health and Health Management, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Brijesh Sathian
- Geriatric and Long Term Care Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Faculty of Health and Social Sciences, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, England, United Kingdom
| | - Maheswar Satpathy
- UGC Centre of Advanced Study in Psychology, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, India
- Udyam-Global Association for Sustainable Development, Bhubaneswar, India
| | - Mario Šekerija
- Department of Medical Statistics, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
- Department of Epidemiology and Prevention of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases, Croatian Institute of Public Health, Zagreb, Croatia
| | | | - Allen Seylani
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Omid Shafaat
- Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland
- Department of Radiology and Interventional Neuroradiology, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Hamid R Shahsavari
- Department of Chemistry, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Zanjan, Iran
| | - Erfan Shamsoddin
- Department of Oral Health, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center (NCDRC), Tehran, Iran
- Non-Communicable Diseases Committee, National Institute for Medical Research Development (NIMAD), Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Jeevan K Shetty
- Department of Biochemistry, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland Medical University of Bahrain, Busaiteen, Bahrain
| | - K M Shivakumar
- Department of Public Health Dentistry, Krishna Vishwa Vidyapeeth (Deemed to be University), Karad, India
| | - Parnian Shobeiri
- Faculty of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of International Studies, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center (NCDRC), Tehran, Iran
| | - Seyed Afshin Shorofi
- Department of Medical-Surgical Nursing, Nasibeh School of Nursing and Midwifery, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Sunil Shrestha
- School of Pharmacy, Monash University, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia
| | | | - Paramdeep Singh
- Department of Radiodiagnosis, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bathinda, India
| | - Jasvinder A Singh
- Heersink School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham
- Department of Medicine Service, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Birmingham, Alabama
| | - Garima Singh
- Department of Community Medicine, Lady Hardinge Medical College, New Delhi, India
- Department of Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Dhirendra Narain Sinha
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Preventive Oncology, Patna, India
- Department of Epidemiology, Healis Sekhsaria Institute for Public Health, Mumbai, India
| | - Yonatan Solomon
- Department of Nursing, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
| | - Muhammad Suleman
- Center for Biotechnology and Microbiology, University of Swat, Mingora, Pakistan
- School of Life Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | | | | | - Iman M Talaat
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
- Pathology Department, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Ker-Kan Tan
- Department of Surgery, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Abdelghani Tbakhi
- Department of Cell Therapy and Applied Genomics, King Hussein Cancer Center, Amman, Jordan
| | - Arulmani Thiyagarajan
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology, Bremen, Germany
| | - Amir Tiyuri
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone
- Saveetha Dental College and Hospitals, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences (SIMATS), Chennai, India
- Modestum LTD, Eastbourne, England, United Kingdom
| | - Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Bay Vo
- Faculty of Information Technology, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HUTECH), Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Simona Ruxandra Volovat
- Department of Medical Oncology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Grigore T Popa" Iaşi, Iaşi, Romania
- Department of Medical Oncology, Regional Institute of Oncology, Iaşi, Romania
| | - Cong Wang
- Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Ronny Westerman
- Competence Center of Mortality-Follow-Up of the German National Cohort, Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
| | - Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Allied Sciences, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, Anuradhapura, Sri Lanka
| | - Hong Xiao
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang, China
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Deniz Yuce
- Hacettepe University Cancer Institute, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, College of Pharmacy, University of South Carolina, Columbia
| | - Vesna Zadnik
- Epidemiology and Cancer Registry Sector, Institute of Oncology Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Iman Zare
- Research and Development Department, Sina Medical Biochemistry Technologies, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Zhi-Jiang Zhang
- School of Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Mohammad Zoladl
- Department of Nursing, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran
| | - Lisa M Force
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Division of Hematology-Oncology, Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Fernando N Hugo
- Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
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Hakim SG, Taubitz C, Hoppe S, Steller D, Rades D, Ribbat-Idel J, Alsharif U, Falougy M. Prognostic impact of the loss of E-cadherin and de novo expression of N-cadherin at the invasive front of primary and recurrent oral squamous cell carcinoma. Front Oncol 2023; 13:1151879. [PMID: 37265789 PMCID: PMC10231494 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1151879] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Accepted: 05/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/03/2023] Open
Abstract
The epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a biological mechanism in multiple pathophysiological diseases. Related alterations in cadherin expression play a crucial role in carcinogenesis, progression, angiogenesis, and immune response. EMT cells exhibit a transition from an epithelial to a mesenchymal phenotype (cadherin-switch). This process is characterized by the de novo development of N-cadherin (N-CAD), which replaces E-cadherin (E-CAD) and signifies an increased migratory capacity and malignant transformation. The cadherin switch is a hallmark of EMT and has been studied in various cancer entities. We predicted that the cadherin switch in the primary and recurrent oral squamous cell carcinoma (re-OSCC) tissues is an inherent characteristic of the tumor, affects the biologic behavior, and further reflects the post-recurrence survival outcome of these patients. Survival outcome was analyzed by calculating the post-recurrence survival of the high-risk group and correlating the standardized h-score-based IHC expression of both cadherin types with the clinical follow-up. 94 patients with re-OSCC were observed within the cohort. Tissue samples from both primary and recurring tumors were collected. There was a significant association between loss of E-CAD expression and both oral cancer-specific and overall survival, (HR=2.72, CI:1.50-4.95, p=0.001) and (HR=3.84, CI:1.93-7.63, p=0.001), respectively, for expression loss higher than 60%. There was no statistically significant correlation between N-CAD de novo expression and Overall, oral cancer-specific and disease-free post-recurrence survival. The current study clearly shows that cadherin-switch, identified as E-CAD loss and N-CAD de novo expression in the invasion front of a re-OSCC, appears to be an inherent histological hallmark that does not change from primary manifestation to recurrence within the same tumor, regardless of the form of adjuvant therapy used for the primary tumor. The loss of E-CAD expression in re-OSCC is an independent risk factor for poor survival, and may be used to stratify therapy and de/escalate the multimodal treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samer George Hakim
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Head and Neck Cancer Center, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, Germany
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Helios Medical Center, Schwerin, Germany
| | - Clara Taubitz
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Head and Neck Cancer Center, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, Germany
| | - Steffen Hoppe
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Head and Neck Cancer Center, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, Germany
| | - Daniel Steller
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Head and Neck Cancer Center, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, Germany
| | - Dirk Rades
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, Germany
| | - Julika Ribbat-Idel
- Institute of Pathology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, Germany
| | - Ubai Alsharif
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Dortmund General Hospital, Dortmund, and Faculty of Health, Witten/Herdecke University, Witten, Germany
| | - Mohamed Falougy
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Head and Neck Cancer Center, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, Germany
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Alsharif U, Steller D, Falougy M, Tharun L, Rades D, Hakim SG. The Benefit of Postoperative Radiotherapy and Extending Neck Dissection in pT1-2 Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma With a Single Ipsilateral Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis (pN1). Anticancer Res 2022; 42:97-104. [PMID: 34969714 DOI: 10.21873/anticanres.15462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Revised: 11/07/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIM We compared postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) to surgery only (SO), and supraomohyoidal neck dissection (SOHND) to modified radical neck dissection (MRND) in patients with pT1-T2 squamous cell carcinomas of the oral cavity (OSCC) and a single cervical lymph node metastasis (pN1) in terms of overall survival (OS), oral cancer specific survival (OCSS), and regional recurrence-free survival (RRFS), in a prospective cohort study. PATIENTS AND METHODS We included patients with pT1-T2 pN1 OSCC with no distant metastasis and estimated the survival probabilities using the Kaplan-Meier method and calculated hazards ratios (HR) for PORT vs. SO and MRND vs. SOHND using adjusted Cox regression models. RESULTS A total of 51 patients (26 SO vs. 25 PORT, 9 SOHND vs. 42 MRND) were evaluated. Patients who received PORT were more likely to be younger and healthier. OS at 5 years was 41% and 87% in the SO and PORT groups, respectively. OS at 5 years was 52% and 67% in the in the SOHND and MRND groups, respectively. Both OCSS and RRFS were improved by PORT. Extending neck dissection was not associated with improved OS (HR = 0.83). CONCLUSION PORT is associated with preferable OS, OCSS, and RRFS in pT1-2 pN1 oral cancer and should be recommended regularly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ubai Alsharif
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany.,Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Dortmund General Hospital, Dortmund, Germany.,School of Dentistry, Faculty of Health, Witten/Herdecke University, Witten, Germany
| | - Daniel Steller
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Mohamed Falougy
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Lars Tharun
- Institute of Pathology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Dirk Rades
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Samer G Hakim
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
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Alsharif U, Hofmann M, Gebhard M, Tharun L, Rades D, Sieg P, Hakim SG. Double Positivity for HPV DNA/P16 INK4a Does Not Influence Survival of Patients With Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma. Anticancer Res 2021; 41:5557-5568. [PMID: 34732426 DOI: 10.21873/anticanres.15369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2021] [Revised: 10/01/2021] [Accepted: 10/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIM We investigated the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) in a prospective cohort of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity (OSCC) using both p16INK4a and HPV DNA, i.e., double positivity, as a definition criterion. Additionally, we examined the association of HPV with survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS Samples from 280 OSCC patients were analyzed for HPV-positivity using p16INK4a immunohistochemistry (IHC) and in situ hybridization (ISH)/LCD arrays, for HPV low and high-risk types. Only patients positive for both p16INK4a and HPV DNA were considered as HPV-positive. Survival probabilities and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess HPV association with disease-free survival (DFS), cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in a competing risks scenario. RESULTS Specimen from 30 (10.7%) patients were p16+ and HPV DNA+, while 31 (11.0%) were either p16+ or HPV DNA+ only. OS probabilities at five years for HPV-positive and -negative groups were 50.9% (35.4%-73.1%) and 52.9% (47.0%-59.5%), respectively. HPV double positivity influenced neither OS, CSS nor DFS: HR=0.84 (0.43-1.63), 1.64 (0.76-3.54) and 1.13 (0.55-2.35), respectively. CONCLUSION In contrast to oropharyngeal cancer, the prevalence of HPV in OSCC is low and the presence of HPV does not influence survival outcomes. Hence, there is no evidence to support a parallel transfer of therapy regimen for HPV-positive OPC to OSCC, in terms of therapy de-escalation and/or vaccination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ubai Alsharif
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany.,Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Dortmund General Hospital, Dortmund, Germany
| | - Marvin Hofmann
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany.,Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital of Giessen and Marburg (Campus Marburg), Marburg, Germany
| | - Maximilian Gebhard
- Institute of Pathology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Lars Tharun
- Institute of Pathology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Dirk Rades
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Peter Sieg
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Samer G Hakim
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany;
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Hakim SG, von Bialy R, Falougy M, Steller D, Tharun L, Rades D, Sieg P, Alsharif U. Impact of stratified resection margin classification on local tumor control and survival in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma. J Surg Oncol 2021; 124:1284-1295. [PMID: 34416792 DOI: 10.1002/jso.26655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2021] [Revised: 06/29/2021] [Accepted: 08/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Guidelines recommended for resection of oral cancer define a free margin of ≥5 mm as clear and safe (R0). This statement was questioned recently based on the assumption that different surgical margins may hold different risk categories. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of stratification of the surgical margins on the survival outcome of patients with oral cancer. METHODS In a cohort of 753 patients, the hazard ratio for local recurrence-free survival (LRFS), overall survival (OS), and oral cancer-specific survival (OCSS) were estimated for R0 resection, the close margin of 1-4 mm, involved resection borders but with free frozen sections. Competing risk factors were considered in the statistical regression model. RESULTS One hundred seventy-three (23%) patients developed local recurrence and 316 (42%) died in the 5 follow-up years. There was a gradual improvement in the LRFS, OCSS, OS with the increase of clear margin. OS showed a similar tendency. CONCLUSION Not all patients with an R0cm status carry the same risk for impaired LRFS, OCSS, and OS. Their risk to develop recurrence is higher than those patients with R0 ≥5 mm but stratified risk management can be recommended according to the presented results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samer G Hakim
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Robert von Bialy
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Mohamed Falougy
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Daniel Steller
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Lars Tharun
- Institute of Pathology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Dirk Rades
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Peter Sieg
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany
| | - Ubai Alsharif
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein (Campus Lübeck), Lübeck, Germany.,Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Dortmund General Hospital, Dortmund, Germany
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7
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Haagsma JA, James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Liu Z, Lucchesi LR, Roberts NLS, Sylte DO, Adebayo OM, Ahmadi A, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Alahdab F, Alghnam SA, Aljunid SM, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Arora A, Asayesh H, Assadi R, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Balalla S, Banstola A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Borges G, Borschmann R, Bose D, Boufous S, Brazinova A, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Crowe CS, Dalal K, Daryani A, Davitoiu DV, Degenhardt L, De Leo D, De Neve JW, Deribe K, Dessie GA, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Doan LP, Dolan KA, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, El Sayed Zaki M, Endries AY, Eskandarieh S, Faro A, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Gezae KE, Gill TK, Goulart AC, Grada A, Guo Y, Gupta R, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Haro JM, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hendrie D, Henok A, Híjar M, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hossain N, Hostiuc S, Hu G, Igumbor EU, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Ivers RQ, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Jayatilleke AU, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jorjoran Shushtari Z, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kalani R, Kasaeian A, Kelbore AG, Kengne AP, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khan EA, Khoja AT, Kiadaliri AA, Kim YE, Kim D, Kisa A, Koyanagi A, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar M, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Leasher JL, Li S, Linn S, Lunevicius R, Machado FR, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahotra NB, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malik MA, Malta DC, Manda AL, Mansournia MA, Massenburg BB, Maulik PK, Meheretu HAA, Mehndiratta MM, Melese A, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadibakhsh R, Mohammed S, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Mondello S, Montero-Zamora PA, Moodley Y, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Velásquez IM, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mousavi SM, Murthy S, Musa KI, Naik G, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Ndwandwe DE, Negoi I, Nguyen TH, Nguyen SH, Nguyen LH, Nguyen HLT, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Orpana HM, Otstavnov SS, P A M, Pakhale S, Park EK, Patton GC, Pesudovs K, Phillips MR, Polinder S, Prakash S, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahimi S, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Ramezanzadeh K, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaeian S, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Sabde YD, Saddik B, Salamati P, Salimi Y, Salz I, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez Riera L, Santric Milicevic MM, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Sawyer SM, Saxena S, Saylan M, Schneider IJC, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sheikh A, Shen J, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shiue I, Silva JP, Singh JA, Sinha DN, Soares Filho AM, Soriano JB, Soshnikov S, Soyiri IN, Starodubov VI, Stein DJ, Stokes MA, Sufiyan MB, Sunshine JE, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Tran KB, Tran BX, Tudor Car L, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Waheed Y, Wang YP, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Yadav P, Yano Y, Yenesew MA, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zafar S, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zhao Y, Zodpey S, Hay SI, Lopez AD, Mokdad AH, Vos T. Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Inj Prev 2020; 26:i12-i26. [PMID: 31915273 PMCID: PMC7571356 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2019] [Revised: 08/08/2019] [Accepted: 08/12/2019] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. RESULTS For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juanita A Haagsma
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Spencer L James
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Chris D Castle
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Zachary V Dingels
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Jack T Fox
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Erin B Hamilton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Zichen Liu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Lydia R Lucchesi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Nicholas L S Roberts
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Dillon O Sylte
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | - Alireza Ahmadi
- Department of Anesthesiology, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | | | | | - Fares Alahdab
- Evidence Based Practice Center, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Suliman A Alghnam
- Department of Population Health Research, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Syed Mohamed Aljunid
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Kuwait University, Safat, Kuwait
- International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, National University of Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Malaysia
| | - Rajaa M Al-Raddadi
- Department of Family and Community Medicine, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ubai Alsharif
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Knappschaftskrankenhaus Bochum, Bochum, Germany
| | | | - Mina Anjomshoa
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran
| | - Carl Abelardo T Antonio
- Department of Health Policy and Administration, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
- Department of Applied Social Sciences, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
| | - Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah
- Department of Sociology and Social Work, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
- Center for International Health, Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich, Germany
| | - Olatunde Aremu
- School of Health Sciences, Birmingham City University, Birmingham, UK
| | - Amit Arora
- School of Science and Health, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Oral Health Services, Sydney Local Health District, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Reza Assadi
- Education Development Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | | | - Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla
- The Judith Lumley Centre, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- General Office for Research and Technological Transfer, Peruvian National Institute of Health, Lima, Peru
| | - Shivanthi Balalla
- School of Public Health, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Amrit Banstola
- Department of Research, Public Health Perspective Nepal, Pokhara-Lekhnath Metropolitan City, Nepal
| | | | - Till Winfried Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi
- Department of Psychiatry, Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science, Los Angeles, California, USA
- Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Neeraj Bedi
- Department of Community Medicine, Gandhi Medical College Bhopal, Bhopal, India
| | - Masoud Behzadifar
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
| | - Meysam Behzadifar
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
| | - Corina Benjet
- Department of Epidemiology and Psychosocial Research, Ramón de la Fuente Muñiz National Institute of Psychiatry, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Derrick A Bennett
- Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Isabela M Bensenor
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Centre for Global Child Health, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Ali Bijani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Guilherme Borges
- Department of Epidemiology and Psychosocial Research, Ramón de la Fuente Muñiz National Institute of Psychiatry, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Rohan Borschmann
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Dipan Bose
- Transport & Digital Development, World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Soufiane Boufous
- Transport and Road Safety (TARS) Research Department, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon
- National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
- School of Medicine, University of the Valley of Cuernavaca, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Rosario Cárdenas
- Department of Population and Health, Metropolitan Autonomous University, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Juan J Carrero
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela
- Colombian National Health Observatory, National Institute of Health, Bogota, Colombia
- Epidemiology and Public Health Evaluation Group, National University of Colombia, Bogota, Colombia
| | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain
- Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jee-Young J Choi
- Department of Biochemistry and Biomedical Science, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | | | - Koustuv Dalal
- Institute of Public Health Kalyani, Kalyani, India
- School of Health Science, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Ahmad Daryani
- Toxoplasmosis Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Dragos Virgil Davitoiu
- Department of General Surgery, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Surgery, Clinical Emergency Hospital Sf. Pantelimon, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Louisa Degenhardt
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Diego De Leo
- Australian Institute for Suicide Research and Prevention, Griffith University, Mount Gravatt, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jan-Walter De Neve
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Kebede Deribe
- Department of Global Health and Infection, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Brighton, UK
- School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | | | - Gabrielle Aline deVeber
- Centre for Global Child Health, The Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
| | - Linh Phuong Doan
- Center of Excellence in Health Service Management, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | - Kate A Dolan
- University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Tim Robert Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Manisha Dubey
- United Nations World Food Programme, New Delhi, India
| | - Ziad El-Khatib
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
- World Health Programme, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, Canada
| | | | | | - Aman Yesuf Endries
- Public Health Department, Saint Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Sharareh Eskandarieh
- Multiple Sclerosis Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Andre Faro
- Department of Psychology, Federal University of Sergipe, Sao Cristovao, Brazil
| | - Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad
- Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
- Division of Neurology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Irina Filip
- Psychiatry Department, Kaiser Permanente, Fontana, California, USA
- School of Health Sciences, A.T. Still University, Mesa, Arizona, USA
| | - Florian Fischer
- Department of Population Medicine and Health Services Research, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
| | - Richard Charles Franklin
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Science, James Cook University, Douglas, Queensland, Australia
| | - Takeshi Fukumoto
- Gene Expression & Regulation Program, The Wistar Institute, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Department of Dermatology, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan
| | | | - Tiffany K Gill
- Adelaide Medical School, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Alessandra C Goulart
- Center for Clinical and Epidemiological Research, University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
- Internal Medicine Department, University Hospital, University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Ayman Grada
- School of Medicine, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Rahul Gupta
- March of Dimes, Arlington, Virginia, USA
- School of Public Health, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA
| | | | - Arvin Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Obesity Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Arya Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Radiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Randah R Hamadeh
- Department of Family and Community Medicine, Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain
| | - Samer Hamidi
- School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - Josep Maria Haro
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network (CiberSAM), Madrid, Spain
- Research and Development Unit, San Juan de Dios Sanitary Park, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
| | - Hadi Hassankhani
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Independent Consultant, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Hamid Yimam Hassen
- Department of Public Health, Mizan-Tepi University, Teppi, Ethiopia
- Unit of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University Hospital Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Rasmus Havmoeller
- Clinical Sciences, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Delia Hendrie
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Andualem Henok
- Department of Public Health, Mizan-Tepi University, Teppi, Ethiopia
| | - Martha Híjar
- Research Coordination, AC Environments Foundation, Cuernavaca, Mexico
- CISS, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Michael K Hole
- Department of Pediatrics, Dell Medical School, University of Texas Austin, Austin, Texas, USA
| | - Enayatollah Homaie Rad
- Guilan Road Trauma Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Naznin Hossain
- Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Dhaka Medical College, Dhaka University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Department of Pharmacology, Bangladesh Industrial Gases Limited, Tangail, Bangladesh
| | - Sorin Hostiuc
- Faculty of Dentistry, Department of Legal Medicine and Bioethics, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
- Clinical Legal Medicine Department, National Institute of Legal Medicine Mina Minovici, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Guoqing Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Ehimario U Igumbor
- School of Public Health, University of the Western Cape, Bellville, Cape Town, South Africa
- Department of Public Health, Walter Sisulu University, Mthatha, South Africa
| | | | - Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani
- Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam
- Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia
- Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Rebecca Q Ivers
- Injury Division, The George Institute for Global Health, Newtown, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Kathryn H Jacobsen
- Department of Global and Community Health, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA
| | - Nader Jahanmehr
- School of Management and Medical Education, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mihajlo Jakovljevic
- Department for Health Care and Public Health, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Achala Upendra Jayatilleke
- Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka
- Faculty of Graduate Studies, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Ravi Prakash Jha
- Department of Community Medicine, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
| | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Opole, Opole, Poland
| | - Mikk Jürisson
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ali Kabir
- Minimally Invasive Surgery Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rizwan Kalani
- Department of Neurology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Pars Advanced and Minimally Invasive Medical Manners Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Andre Pascal Kengne
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Unit, Medical Research Council South Africa, Cape Town, South Africa
- Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Yousef Saleh Khader
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Ramtha, Jordan
| | - Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Nauman Khalid
- School of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Ejaz Ahmad Khan
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics Department, Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Abdullah T Khoja
- Department of Public Health, Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Young-Eun Kim
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Daniel Kim
- Department of Health Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Adnan Kisa
- School of Health Sciences, Kristiania University College, Oslo, Norway
| | - Ai Koyanagi
- CIBERSAM, San Juan de Dios Sanitary Park, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Barthelemy Kuate Defo
- Department of Demography, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Burcu Kucuk Bicer
- Department of Public Health, Yuksek Ihtisas University, Ankara, Turkey
- Department of Public Health, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Manasi Kumar
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
- Division of Psychology and Language Sciences, University College London, London, UK
| | - Ratilal Lalloo
- School of Dentistry, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Hilton Lam
- Institute of Health Policy and Development Studies, National Institutes of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Faris Hasan Lami
- Department of Community and Family Medicine, University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq
| | - Van C Lansingh
- HelpMeSee, New York City, New York, USA
- International Relations Department, Mexican Institute of Ophthalmology, Queretaro, Mexico
| | - Janet L Leasher
- College of Optometry, Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, USA
| | - Shanshan Li
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shai Linn
- School of Public Health, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
| | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- Department of General Surgery, Aintree University Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK
- Department of Surgery, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Flavia R Machado
- Anesthesiology, Pain and Intensive Care Department, Federal University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Marek Majdan
- Department of Public Health, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia
| | - Azeem Majeed
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Manzoor Ahmad Malik
- Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, Haridwar, India
- Department of Development Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | - Deborah Carvalho Malta
- Department of Maternal and Child Nursing and Public Health, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Ana-Laura Manda
- Surgery Department, Emergency University Hospital Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Mohammad Ali Mansournia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Pallab K Maulik
- Research Department, The George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
- School of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Hailemariam Abiy Alemu Meheretu
- Department of Nursing, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
- School of Public Health, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Man Mohan Mehndiratta
- Neurology Department, Janakpuri Super Specialty Hospital Society, New Delhi, India
- Neurology Department, Govind Ballabh Institute of Medical Education and Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Addisu Melese
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Walter Mendoza
- Peru Country Office, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Lima, Peru
| | | | - Tuomo J Meretoja
- Breast Surgery Unit, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
- University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Atte Meretoja
- Neurocenter, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
- School of Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Tomislav Mestrovic
- Clinical Microbiology and Parasitology Unit, Zora Profozic Polyclinic, Zagreb, Croatia
- University Centre Varazdin, University North, Varazdin, Croatia
| | - Tomasz Miazgowski
- Department of Propedeutics of Internal Diseases & Arterial Hypertension, Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland
| | - Ted R Miller
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
- Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland, USA
| | - G K Mini
- Achutha Menon Centre for Health Science Studies, Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Trivandrum, India
- Global Institute of Public Health (GIPH), Ananthapuri Hospitals and Research Centre, Trivandrum, India
| | - Erkin M Mirrakhimov
- Faculty of Internal Medicine, Kyrgyz State Medical Academy, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
- Department of Atherosclerosis and Coronary Heart Disease, National Center of Cardiology and Internal Disease, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
| | - Babak Moazen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Institute of Addiction Research (ISFF), Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Frankfurt, Germany
| | | | | | - Shafiu Mohammed
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
| | - Mariam Molokhia
- Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Stefania Mondello
- Department of Biomedical and Dental Sciences and Morphofunctional Imaging, University of Messina, Messina, Italy
- Department of Neurology, Oasi Research Institute, Troina, Italy
| | - Pablo A Montero-Zamora
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA
- Center for Health Systems Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Yoshan Moodley
- Department of Public Health Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Mahmood Moosazadeh
- Health Sciences Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Ghobad Moradi
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Lidia Morawska
- International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | | | - Marilita M Moschos
- 1st Department of Ophthalmology, University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- Biomedical Research Foundation, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Seyyed Meysam Mousavi
- Health Management Reserach Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Health Management and Economics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Srinivas Murthy
- Department of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Kamarul Imran Musa
- School of Medical Sciences, Science University of Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia
| | - Gurudatta Naik
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA
| | - Farid Najafi
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | | | - Bruno Ramos Nascimento
- Hospital of the Federal University of Minas Gerais, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | - Ionut Negoi
- Department of General Surgery, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
- General Surgery Department, Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Trang Huyen Nguyen
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | - Son Hoang Nguyen
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | - Long Hoang Nguyen
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | | | - Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum
- Public Health Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Kota Semarang, Indonesia
- Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei City, Taiwan
| | | | - Richard Ofori-Asenso
- Centre of Cardiovascular Research and Education in Therapeutics, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Independent Consultant, Accra, Ghana
| | - Felix Akpojene Ogbo
- Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
| | - In-Hwan Oh
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Dongdaemun-gu, South Korea
| | - Olanrewaju Oladimeji
- HAST, Human Sciences Research Council, Durban, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Namibia, Osakhati, Namibia
| | - Andrew T Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Tinuke O Olagunju
- Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Pedro R Olivares
- Institute of Physical Activity and Health, Autonomous University of Chile, Talca, Chile
| | - Heather M Orpana
- Applied Research Division, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- School of Psychology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Stanislav S Otstavnov
- Analytical Center, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russia
- Committee for the Comprehensive Assessment of Medical Devices and Information Technology, Health Technology Assessment Association, Moscow, Russia
| | - Mahesh P A
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Jagadguru Sri Shivarathreeswara Academy of Health Education and Research, Mysore, India
| | - Smita Pakhale
- Department of Medicine, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Eun-Kee Park
- Department of Medical Humanities and Social Medicine, Kosin University, Busan, South Korea
| | - George C Patton
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Population Health Department, Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Konrad Pesudovs
- School of Optometry and Vision Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Michael R Phillips
- Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
- Department of Psychiatry, Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Suzanne Polinder
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Swayam Prakash
- Department of Nephrology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India
| | - Amir Radfar
- College of Medicine, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA
- College of Graduate Health Sciences, A.T. Still University, Mesa, Arizona, USA
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Alireza Rafiei
- Department of Immunology, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- Molecular and Cell Biology Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Siavash Rahimi
- Faculty of Medicine, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Muhammad Aziz Rahman
- School of Nursing and Healthcare Professions, Federation University, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
- National Centre for Farmer Health, Deakin University, Waurn Ponds, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rajesh Kumar Rai
- Society for Health and Demographic Surveillance, Suri, India
- Department of Economics, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Kiana Ramezanzadeh
- Department of Pharmacology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Salman Rawaf
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Academic Public Health Department, Public Health England, London, UK
| | - David Laith Rawaf
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training, Imperial College London, London, UK
- University College London Hospitals, London, UK
| | - Andre M N Renzaho
- Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Social Sciences and Psychology, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Serge Resnikoff
- Brien Holden Vision Institute, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Organization for the Prevention of Blindness, Paris, France
| | | | - Leonardo Roever
- Department of Clinical Research, Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, Brazil
| | - Luca Ronfani
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Yogesh Damodar Sabde
- National Institute for Research in Environmental Health, Indian Council of Medical Research, Bhopal, India
| | - Basema Saddik
- College of Medicine, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Payman Salamati
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yahya Salimi
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
- Social Development & Health Promotion Research Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Inbal Salz
- Health and Disability Intelligence Group, Ministry of Health, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Abdallah M Samy
- Department of Entomology, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Juan Sanabria
- Department of Surgery, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia, USA
- Department of Nutrition and Preventive Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
| | - Lidia Sanchez Riera
- Rheumatology Department, University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK
- Institute of Bone and Joint Research, University of Sydney, Syndey, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Milena M Santric Milicevic
- Institute of Social Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
- Centre-School of Public Health and Health Management, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Maheswar Satpathy
- UGC Centre of Advanced Study in Psychology, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, India
- Udyam-Global Association for Sustainable Development, Bhubaneswar, India
| | - Monika Sawhney
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, USA
| | - Susan M Sawyer
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sonia Saxena
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Mete Saylan
- Market Access Department, Bayer, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Ione J C Schneider
- School of Health Sciences, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Ararangua, Brazil
| | - David C Schwebel
- Department of Psychology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA
| | - Soraya Seedat
- Department of Psychiatry, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | | | - Mehran Shams-Beyranvand
- School of Medicine, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- School of Medicine, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Morteza Shamsizadeh
- Chronic Diseases (Home Care) Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
| | - Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Centre for Medical Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Division of General Internal Medicine and Primary Care, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Jiabin Shen
- Center for Pediatric Trauma Research, Research Institute at Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, Ohio, USA
| | | | - Rahman Shiri
- Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ivy Shiue
- Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
| | | | - Jasvinder A Singh
- Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA
- Medicine Service, US Department of Veteran Affairs, Birmingham, Alabama, USA
| | - Dhirendra Narain Sinha
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Preventive Oncology, Patna, India
- Department of Epidemiology, Healis Sekhsaria Institute for Public Health, Mumbai, India
| | - Adauto Martins Soares Filho
- Department of Diseases and Noncommunicable Diseases and Health Promotion, Federal Ministry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil
| | - Joan B Soriano
- Hospital Universitario de la Princesa, Autonomous University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Madrid, Spain
| | - Sergey Soshnikov
- Department of Research Development, Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of the Ministry of Health (FRIHOI), Moscow, Russia
| | - Ireneous N Soyiri
- Hull York Medical School, University of Hull, Hull City, UK
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Vladimir I Starodubov
- Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of the Ministry of Health (FRIHOI), Moscow, Russia
| | - Dan J Stein
- Department of Epidemiology, Healis Sekhsaria Institute for Public Health, Mumbai, India
- Department of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Mark A Stokes
- Department of Psychology, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Jacob E Sunshine
- Department of Anesthesiology & Pain Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Bryan L Sykes
- Department of Criminology, Law and Society, University of California Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos
- Department of Medicine, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
- Carlos III Health Institute, Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network (CiberSAM), Madrid, Spain
| | - Karen M Tabb
- School of Social Work, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois, USA
| | - Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Community Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Gizachew Assefa Tessema
- Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Jarnail Singh Thakur
- School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - Khanh Bao Tran
- Molecular Medicine and Pathology Department, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Clinical Hematology and Toxicology, Military Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Bach Xuan Tran
- Department of Health Economics, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Lorainne Tudor Car
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
| | | | | | - Pascual R Valdez
- Argentine Society of Medicine, Buenos Aires, Argentina
- Velez Sarsfield Hospital, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Elena Varavikova
- Central Research Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of the Ministry of Health (FRIHOI), Moscow, Russia
| | - Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos
- Department of Statistics, University of Brasília, Brasília, Brazil
- Directorate of Social Studies and Policies, Federal District Planning Company, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian
- Raffles Neuroscience Centre, Raffles Hospital, Singapore
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Francesco S Violante
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
- Occupational Health Unit, Sant'Orsola Malpighi Hospital, Bologna, Italy
| | - Vasily Vlassov
- Department of Health Care Administration and Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
| | - Yasir Waheed
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Yuan-Pang Wang
- Department of Psychiatry, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tissa Wijeratne
- Department of Psychology and Counselling, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Medicine, University of Melbourne, St Albans, Victoria, Australia
| | - Andrea Sylvia Winkler
- Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Neurology, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Priyanka Yadav
- Centre for the Study of Regional Development, Jawahar Lal Nehru University, New Delhi, India
| | - Yuichiro Yano
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | | | - Paul Yip
- Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Department of Social Work and Social Administration, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Engida Yisma
- School of Allied Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Psychopharmacology, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mustafa Z Younis
- Health Economics & Finance, Jackson State University, Jackson, Mississippi, USA
- School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
- Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Shamsa Zafar
- Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, A.C.S. Medical College and Hospital, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Zoubida Zaidi
- Department of Epidemiology, University Hospital of Setif, Setif, Algeria
| | - Sojib Bin Zaman
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Department of Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Mohammad Zamani
- Student Research Committee, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Yong Zhao
- School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Sanjay Zodpey
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Alan D Lopez
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Queensland, Australia
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Lalloo R, Lucchesi LR, Bisignano C, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Liu Z, Roberts NLS, Sylte DO, Alahdab F, Alipour V, Alsharif U, Arabloo J, Bagherzadeh M, Banach M, Bijani A, Crowe CS, Daryani A, Do HP, Doan LP, Fischer F, Gebremeskel GG, Haagsma JA, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hoang CL, Irvani SSN, Kasaeian A, Khader YS, Khalilov R, Khoja AT, Kiadaliri AA, Majdan M, Manaf N, Manafi A, Massenburg BB, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Morrison SD, Nguyen TH, Nguyen SH, Nguyen CT, Olagunju TO, Otstavnov N, Polinder S, Rabiee N, Rabiee M, Ramezanzadeh K, Ranganathan K, Rezapour A, Safari S, Samy AM, Sanchez Riera L, Shaikh MA, Tran BX, Vahedi P, Vahedian-Azimi A, Zhang ZJ, Pigott DM, Hay SI, Mokdad AH, James SL. Epidemiology of facial fractures: incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. Inj Prev 2020; 26:i27-i35. [PMID: 31915268 PMCID: PMC7571355 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2019] [Revised: 08/07/2019] [Accepted: 08/12/2019] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has historically produced estimates of causes of injury such as falls but not the resulting types of injuries that occur. The objective of this study was to estimate the global incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to facial fractures and to estimate the leading injurious causes of facial fracture. METHODS We obtained results from GBD 2017. First, the study estimated the incidence from each injury cause (eg, falls), and then the proportion of each cause that would result in facial fracture being the most disabling injury. Incidence, prevalence and YLDs of facial fractures are then calculated across causes. RESULTS Globally, in 2017, there were 7 538 663 (95% uncertainty interval 6 116 489 to 9 493 113) new cases, 1 819 732 (1 609 419 to 2 091 618) prevalent cases, and 117 402 (73 266 to 169 689) YLDs due to facial fractures. In terms of age-standardised incidence, prevalence and YLDs, the global rates were 98 (80 to 123) per 100 000, 23 (20 to 27) per 100 000, and 2 (1 to 2) per 100 000, respectively. Facial fractures were most concentrated in Central Europe. Falls were the predominant cause in most regions. CONCLUSIONS Facial fractures are predominantly caused by falls and occur worldwide. Healthcare systems and public health agencies should investigate methods of all injury prevention. It is important for healthcare systems in every part of the world to ensure access to treatment resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ratilal Lalloo
- School of Dentistry, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Lydia R Lucchesi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Catherine Bisignano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Chris D Castle
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Zachary V Dingels
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Jack T Fox
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Erin B Hamilton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Zichen Liu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Nicholas L S Roberts
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Dillon O Sylte
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Fares Alahdab
- Evidence Based Practice Center, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Vahid Alipour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Tehran, Iran
- Health Economics Department, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ubai Alsharif
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Knappschaftskrankenhaus Bochum, Bochum, Germany
| | - Jalal Arabloo
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Maciej Banach
- Department of Hypertension, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
- Polish Mothers' Memorial Hospital Research Institute, Lodz, Poland
| | - Ali Bijani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | | | - Ahmad Daryani
- Toxoplasmosis Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Huyen Phuc Do
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | - Linh Phuong Doan
- Center of Excellence in Health Service Management, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | - Florian Fischer
- School of Public Health Medicine, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
| | - Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel
- Nursing Department, College of Health Science, Aksum University, Aksum, Ethiopia
- Nursing Department, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | - Juanita A Haagsma
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Arvin Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Obesity Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Arya Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Radiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Samer Hamidi
- School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - Chi Linh Hoang
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | - Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani
- Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Hematologic Malignancies Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yousef Saleh Khader
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Ramtha, Jordan
| | - Rovshan Khalilov
- Department of Physiology, Baku State University, Baku, Azerbaijan
| | - Abdullah T Khoja
- Department of Public Health, Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Marek Majdan
- Department of Public Health, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia
| | - Navid Manaf
- Ophthalmology Department, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Ophthalmology Department, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Ali Manafi
- Plastic Surgery Department, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Trang Huyen Nguyen
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | - Son Hoang Nguyen
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
| | - Cuong Tat Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Tinuke O Olagunju
- Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Nikita Otstavnov
- Laboratory of Public Health Indicators Analysis and Health Digitalization, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russia
- Academic Department, Unium Ltd, Moscow, Russia
| | - Suzanne Polinder
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Navid Rabiee
- Chemistry Department, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Rabiee
- Biomedical Engineering Department, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kiana Ramezanzadeh
- Department of Pharmacology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Aziz Rezapour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Saeed Safari
- Emergency Department, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abdallah M Samy
- Department of Entomology, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Lidia Sanchez Riera
- Rheumatology Department, University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK
- Institute of Bone and Joint Research, University of Sydney, Syndey, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Bach Xuan Tran
- Department of Health Economics, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Parviz Vahedi
- Assistant Professor of Anatomical Sciences, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
| | - Amir Vahedian-Azimi
- Trauma Research Center, Nursing Faculty, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Zhi-Jiang Zhang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Spencer L James
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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9
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Fitzmaurice C, Abate D, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdelalim A, Abdoli A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulle ASM, Abebe ND, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abualhasan A, Adedeji IA, Advani SM, Afarideh M, Afshari M, Aghaali M, Agius D, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadian E, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed MB, Akbari ME, Akinyemiju T, Al-Aly Z, AlAbdulKader AM, Alahdab F, Alam T, Alamene GM, Alemnew BTT, Alene KA, Alinia C, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Bakeshei FA, Almadi MAH, Almasi-Hashiani A, Alsharif U, Alsowaidi S, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini E, Amini S, Amoako YA, Anbari Z, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansariadi A, Appiah SCY, Arab-Zozani M, Arabloo J, Arefi Z, Aremu O, Areri HA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ashagre AF, Assadi R, Ataeinia B, Atalay HT, Ataro Z, Atique S, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awoke N, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayanore MA, Ayele HT, Babaee E, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bagherzadeh M, Bagli E, Balakrishnan S, Balouchi A, Bärnighausen TW, Battista RJ, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belay YB, Belayneh YM, Berfield KKS, Berhane A, Bernabe E, Beuran M, Bhakta N, Bhattacharyya K, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bin Sayeed MS, Birungi C, Bisignano C, Bitew H, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Bogale KA, Bojia HA, Borzì AM, Bosetti C, Bou-Orm IR, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Briko AN, Briko NI, Bustamante-Teixeira MT, Butt ZA, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castro C, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chanie WF, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chauhan NS, Chehrazi M, Chiang PPC, Chichiabellu TY, Chido-Amajuoyi OG, Chimed-Ochir O, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Constantin MM, Costa VM, Crocetti E, Crowe CS, Curado MP, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Darwish AH, Daryani A, das Neves J, Demeke FM, Demis AB, Demissie BW, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Derakhshani A, Deribe KS, Desai R, Desalegn BB, Desta M, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Dinberu MTT, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Drake TM, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Ebrahimi H, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, El Sayed I, Zaki MES, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Elemineh DA, Elkout H, Ellenbogen RG, Elsharkawy A, Emamian MH, Endalew DA, Endries AY, Eshrati B, Fadhil I, Fallah Omrani V, Faramarzi M, Farhangi MA, Farioli A, Farzadfar F, Fentahun N, Fernandes E, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Force LM, Foroutan M, Freitas M, Fukumoto T, Futran ND, Gallus S, Gankpe FG, Gayesa RT, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremeskel GG, Gedefaw GA, Gelaw BK, Geta B, Getachew S, Gezae KE, Ghafourifard M, Ghajar A, Ghashghaee A, Gholamian A, Gill PS, Ginindza TTG, Girmay A, Gizaw M, Gomez RS, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Ribeiro Guerra M, Guimaraes ALS, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Hadkhale K, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hanfore LK, Haro JM, Hasankhani M, Hasanzadeh A, Hassen HY, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Hidru HD, Hoang CL, Hole MK, Hoogar P, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hussen MM, Ileanu B, Ilic MD, Innos K, Irvani SSN, Iseh KR, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jafari Balalami N, Jafarinia M, Jahangiry L, Jahani MA, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman S, Jee SH, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jonnagaddala J, Joo T, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kamangar F, Karch A, Karimi N, Karimian A, Kasaeian A, Kasahun GG, Kassa B, Kassa TD, Kassaw MW, Kaul A, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore AG, Kerbo AA, Khader YS, Khalilarjmandi M, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khatab K, Khater A, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaee-Pool M, Khazaei S, Khoja AT, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kianipour N, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Komaki H, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Bicer BK, Kugbey N, Kumar V, Kuupiel D, La Vecchia C, Lad DP, Lake EA, Lakew AM, Lal DK, Lami FH, Lan Q, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Lazarus JV, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Liao Y, Limenih MA, Listl S, Lopez AD, Lopukhov PD, Lunevicius R, Madadin M, Magdeldin S, El Razek HMA, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Manafi A, Manafi N, Manamo WA, Mansourian M, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Maroufizadeh S, Martini SMS, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Massenburg BB, Maswabi MT, Mathur MR, McAlinden C, McKee M, Meheretu HAA, Mehrotra R, Mehta V, Meier T, Melaku YA, Meles GG, Meles HG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Merat S, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Mihretie KMM, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mir SM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei HR, Mishra R, Moazen B, Mohammad DK, Mohammad KA, Mohammad Y, Darwesh AM, Mohammadbeigi A, Mohammadi H, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadoo-Khorasani M, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed AS, Mohammed JA, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moosazadeh M, Moossavi M, Moradi G, Moradi-Joo M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradpour F, Morawska L, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morisaki N, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Mousavi SM, Muche AA, Muhammed OSS, Musa J, Nabhan AF, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nam HS, Nasiri N, Nazari J, Negoi I, Neupane S, Newcomb PA, Nggada HA, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nikniaz L, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nojomi M, Nosratnejad S, Shiadeh MN, Obsa MS, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Oluwasanu MM, Omonisi AE, Onwujekwe OE, Oommen AM, Oren E, Ortega-Altamirano DDV, Ota E, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Park EK, Parsian H, Pashaei T, Patel S, Patil ST, Pennini A, Pereira DM, Piccinelli C, Pillay JD, Pirestani M, Pishgar F, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Prakash S, Prasad N, Qorbani M, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi M, Rahman MA, Rajati F, Rana SM, Raoofi S, Rath GK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Reiner RC, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Ribeiro AI, Ribeiro D, Ronfani L, Roro EM, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Saad RS, Sabbagh P, Sabour S, Saddik B, Safiri S, Sahebkar A, Salahshoor MR, Salehi F, Salem H, Salem MR, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Sayyah M, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Sepehrimanesh M, Seyedmousavi S, Shaahmadi F, Shabaninejad H, Shahbaz M, Shaikh MA, Shamshirian A, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi H, Sharafi Z, Sharif M, Sharifi A, Sharifi H, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Shirkoohi R, Shukla SR, Si S, Siabani S, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Singh A, Singh JA, Sisay S, Sitas F, Sobngwi E, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Stathopoulou V, Sufiyan MB, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Takahashi K, Tamtaji OR, Tarawneh MR, Tassew SG, Taymoori P, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Tesfay BE, Tesfay FH, Teshale MY, Tessema GA, Thapa S, Tlaye KG, Topor-Madry R, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tsadik AG, Ullah I, Uthman OA, Vacante M, Vaezi M, Varona Pérez P, Veisani Y, Vidale S, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vu GT, Vujcic IS, Wabinga H, Wachamo TM, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Weldegebreal F, Weldesamuel GT, Wijeratne T, Wondafrash DZ, Wonde TE, Wondmieneh AB, Workie HM, Yadav R, Yadegar A, Yadollahpour A, Yaseri M, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yeshaneh A, Yimam MA, Yimer EM, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousefi B, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zabeh E, Zadnik V, Moghadam TZ, Zaidi Z, Zamani M, Zandian H, Zangeneh A, Zaki L, Zendehdel K, Zenebe ZM, Zewale TA, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Murray CJL. Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. JAMA Oncol 2019; 5:1749-1768. [PMID: 31560378 PMCID: PMC6777271 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2019.2996] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1437] [Impact Index Per Article: 287.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Importance Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Christina Fitzmaurice
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Division of Hematology, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Naghmeh Abbasi
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Hedayat Abbastabar
- Iranian Center of Neurological Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Omar Abdel-Rahman
- Department of Oncology, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Department of Oncology, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | | | - Amir Abdoli
- Department of Parasitology and Mycology, Jahrom University of Medical Sciences, Jahrom, Iran
- Research Center for Non-communicable Diseases, Jahrom University of Medical Sciences, Jahrom, Iran
| | - Ibrahim Abdollahpour
- Department of Epidemiology, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
- Multiple Sclerosis Research Center, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abdishakur S M Abdulle
- Public Health Research Center, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Nebiyu Dereje Abebe
- School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Department of Public Health, Wachemo University, Hossana, Ethiopia
| | | | - Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad
- Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | - Shailesh M Advani
- Social Behavioral Research Branch, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
- Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Georgetown University, Washington, DC
| | - Mohsen Afarideh
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Mohammad Aghaali
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
| | - Dominic Agius
- Department of Health, Directorate for Health Information and Research, Pieta, Malta
| | - Sutapa Agrawal
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
- Vital Strategies, Gurugram, India
| | - Ayat Ahmadi
- Knowledge Utilization Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elham Ahmadian
- Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Ehsan Ahmadpour
- Department of Parasitology and Mycology, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | | | | | - Tomi Akinyemiju
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Ziyad Al-Aly
- John T. Milliken Department of Internal Medicine, Washington University in St. Louis, St Louis, Missouri
- Clinical Epidemiology Center, VA Saint Louis Health Care System, Department of Veterans Affairs, St Louis, Missouri
| | - Assim M AlAbdulKader
- Department of Family and Community Medicine, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Fares Alahdab
- Evidence-Based Practice Research Center, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, Minnesota
| | - Tahiya Alam
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Birhan Tamene T Alemnew
- Department of Health Sciences, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Parasitology, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Kefyalew Addis Alene
- Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
- Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capitol Territory, Australia
| | - Cyrus Alinia
- Department of Health Care Management and Economics, Urmia University of Medical Science, Urmia, Iran
| | - Vahid Alipour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Health Economics, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Syed Mohamed Aljunid
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Kuwait University, Safat, Kuwait
- International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, National University of Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Malaysia
| | | | - Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almadi
- Department of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, McGill University, Montreal, Québec, Canada
| | | | - Ubai Alsharif
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital Knappschaftskrankenhaus Bochum, Bochum, Germany
| | - Shirina Alsowaidi
- College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | - Nelson Alvis-Guzman
- Research Group in Health Economics, Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena, Colombia
- Research Group in Hospital Management and Health Policies, Universidad de la Costa, Barranquilla, Colombia
| | - Erfan Amini
- Department of Urology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Saeed Amini
- Department of Health Services Management, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
| | - Yaw Ampem Amoako
- Department of Internal Medicine, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Zohreh Anbari
- Department of Health Services Management, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
| | | | | | - Mina Anjomshoa
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran
| | - Fereshteh Ansari
- Research Center for Evidence Based Medicine, Health Management and Safety Promotion Research Institute, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | | | - Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah
- Department of Sociology and Social Work, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
- Center for International Health, Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich, Germany
| | - Morteza Arab-Zozani
- Department of Healthcare Management, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Jalal Arabloo
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Zohreh Arefi
- Department of Health Education and Health Promotion, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olatunde Aremu
- School of Health Sciences, Birmingham City University, Birmingham, England, United Kingdom
| | - Habtamu Abera Areri
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Al Artaman
- Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | | | | | | | - Reza Assadi
- Education Development Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Bahar Ataeinia
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Zerihun Ataro
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Suleman Atique
- University Institute of Public Health, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
- College ofPublic Health, University of Hail, Hail, Saudi Arabia
| | - Marcel Ausloos
- School of Business, University of Leicester, Leicester, England, United Kingdom
| | - Leticia Avila-Burgos
- Center for Health Systems Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Euripide F G A Avokpaho
- Bénin Clinical Research Institute, Abomey-Calavi, Benin
- Contrôle des Maladies Infectieuses, Laboratory of Studies and Research-Action in Health, Porto Novo, Benin
| | - Ashish Awasthi
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, India
| | - Nefsu Awoke
- Department of Nursing, Wolaita Sodo University, Sodo, Ethiopia
| | - Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla
- The Judith Lumley Centre, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- General Office for Research and Technological Transfer, Peruvian National Institute of Health, Lima, Peru
| | - Martin Amogre Ayanore
- Department of Family and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana
| | - Henok Tadesse Ayele
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Québec, Canada
- Public Health Department, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia
| | - Ebrahim Babaee
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Umar Bacha
- School of Health Sciences, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Alaa Badawi
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Eleni Bagli
- Department of Ophthalmology, University Hospital of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece
- Institute of Molecular Biology & Biotechnology, Foundation for Research & Technology, Ioannina, Greece
| | | | - Abbas Balouchi
- School of Nursing and Allied Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Till Winfried Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | - Masoud Behzadifar
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
| | | | - Bayu Begashaw Bekele
- Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
- Public Health Department, Mizan-Tepi University, Teppi, Ethiopia
| | - Yared Belete Belay
- Department of Pharmacoepidemiology and Social Pharmacy, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
- AC Environments Foundation, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | | | | | - Adugnaw Berhane
- School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Eduardo Bernabe
- Dental Institute, King's College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Mircea Beuran
- Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Nickhill Bhakta
- Department of Global Pediatric Medicine, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee
| | - Krittika Bhattacharyya
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani, India
| | - Belete Biadgo
- Department of Clinical Chemistry, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Ali Bijani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed
- National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmacology, University of Dhaka, Ramna, Bangladesh
| | - Charles Birungi
- The UCL Centre for Global Health Economics, University College London, London, England, United Kingdom
- Fast-Track Implementation Department, United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Gaborone, Botswana
| | - Catherine Bisignano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Helen Bitew
- School of Pharmacy, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | - Tone Bjørge
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | - Archie Bleyer
- Department of Radiation Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland
- Department of Pediatrics, The University of Texas, Houston
| | | | - Hunduma Amensisa Bojia
- School of Pharmacy, College of Medicine and Health Science, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Antonio M Borzì
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Biomedicine, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Cristina Bosetti
- Department of Oncology, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Milan, Italy
| | | | - Hermann Brenner
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jerry D Brewer
- Department of Dermatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota
| | | | - Nikolay Ivanovich Briko
- Department of Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | | | - Zahid A Butt
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Al Shifa School of Public Health, Al Shifa Trust Eye Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Giulia Carreras
- Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network, Florence, Italy
| | - Juan J Carrero
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Félix Carvalho
- Applied Molecular Biosciences Unit, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Institute of Public Health, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Clara Castro
- Department of Epidemiology, Portuguese Oncology Institute of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- EpiUnit, Instituto de Saúde Pública, University of Cartagena, Cartagena, Colombia
| | - Franz Castro
- Department of Research and Health Technology Assessment, Gorgas Memorial Institute for Health Studies, Panama City, Panama
| | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain
- Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Ester Cerin
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Yazan Chaiah
- College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Vijay Kumar Chattu
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- China Institute, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Pankaj Chaturvedi
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India
| | - Neelima Singh Chauhan
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, People's College of Medical Sciences and Research Centre, Bhopal, India
| | - Mohammad Chehrazi
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
- Epidemiology Research Center, Royan Institute, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Onyema Greg Chido-Amajuoyi
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics, and Environmental Sciences, The University of Texas, Houston
| | - Odgerel Chimed-Ochir
- Institute of Industrial Ecological Science, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan
| | - Jee-Young J Choi
- Departments ofBiochemistry and Biomedical Science, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Dinh-Toi Chu
- Faculty of Biology, Hanoi National University of Education, Hanoi, Vietnam
- Department of Cancer Immunology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Maria-Magdalena Constantin
- Department of Dermatology, 2nd Clinic of Dermatology, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
- 2nd Department of Dermatology, Colentina Clinical Hospital, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Vera M Costa
- UCIBIO/REQUIMTE, Laboratory of Toxicology, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Emanuele Crocetti
- Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori (IRST) IRCCS, Meldola, Italy
| | | | - Maria Paula Curado
- Department of Epidemiology, A. C. Camargo Cancer Center, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Saad M A Dahlawi
- Department of Environmental Health, College of Public Health, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | - Giovanni Damiani
- Department of Dermatology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | | | - Ahmad Daryani
- Toxoplasmosis Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - José das Neves
- Institute for Research and Innovation in Health (i3S), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Institute of Biomedical Engineering (INEB), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Feleke Mekonnen Demeke
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis
- Nursing Department, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
- Department of Nursing, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
| | | | - Gebre Teklemariam Demoz
- School of Pharmacy, Aksum University, Aksum, Ethiopia
- Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez
- Center for Nutrition and Health Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Afshin Derakhshani
- Department of Immunology, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran
| | | | - Rupak Desai
- Division of Cardiology, Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Decatur, Georgia
| | | | - Melaku Desta
- Department of Midwifery, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Autonomous University of Sinaloa, Culiacán Rosales, Mexico
| | | | - Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
| | - Meghnath Dhimal
- Health Research Section, Nepal Health Research Council, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Daniel Diaz
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Autonomous University of Sinaloa, Culiacán Rosales, Mexico
- Center of Complexity Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | - Shirin Djalalinia
- Research and Technology, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - David Teye Doku
- Department of Population and Health, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
- Faculty of Social Sciences, Health Sciences, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland
| | - Thomas M Drake
- Department of Clinical Surgery, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Manisha Dubey
- United Nations World Food Programme, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Eyasu Ejeta Duken
- College of Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
- Mycobacteriology Research Center, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
| | - Hedyeh Ebrahimi
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Liver and Pancreaticobiliary Disease Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Andem Effiong
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Aziz Eftekhari
- Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Department of Basic Sciences, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
| | - Iman El Sayed
- Medical Research Institute, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | | | | | - Ziad El-Khatib
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Hajer Elkout
- Department of Community Medicine, Tripoli University, Tripoli, Libya
- Department of Health Information, World Health Organization, Tripoli, Libya
| | - Richard G Ellenbogen
- Department of Neurology, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Surgery, Seattle Children's Hospital, Seattle, Washington
| | - Aisha Elsharkawy
- Endemic Medicine and Hepatogastroenterology Department, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Mohammad Hassan Emamian
- Ophthalmic Epidemiology Research Center, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran
| | | | - Aman Yesuf Endries
- Public Health Department, St Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Babak Eshrati
- Center of Communicable Disease Control, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
- School of Public Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
| | - Ibtihal Fadhil
- Department of Non-communicable Diseases, Ministry of Public Health, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | | | | | | | - Andrea Farioli
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Netsanet Fentahun
- Department of Public Health Nutrition, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | | | - Garumma Tolu Feyissa
- Department of Health Education and Behavioral Sciences, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
- Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
| | - Irina Filip
- Department of Psychiatry, Kaiser Permanente, Fontana, California
- School of Health Sciences, A.T. Still University, Mesa, Arizona
| | - Florian Fischer
- School of Public Health Medicine, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
| | - James L Fisher
- James Cancer Hospital, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio
| | - Lisa M Force
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Oncology, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee
| | | | - Marisa Freitas
- Department of Chemical Sciences, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Takeshi Fukumoto
- Gene Expression and Regulation Program, Cancer Institute, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- Department of Dermatology, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan
| | - Neal D Futran
- Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Silvano Gallus
- Department of Environmental Health Science, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Milan, Italy
| | - Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe
- Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy of Fez, University Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah, Fez, Morocco
- Non-communicable Disease Department, Laboratory of Studies and Research-Action in Health, Porto Novo, Benin
| | | | | | | | - Getnet Azeze Gedefaw
- Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
- Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
| | | | - Birhanu Geta
- Department of Pharmacy, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
| | - Sefonias Getachew
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Institute of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Informatics, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
| | | | - Mansour Ghafourifard
- Medical Surgical Department, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Alireza Ghajar
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston
| | - Ahmad Ghashghaee
- Department of Health Services Management, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Asadollah Gholamian
- Physiology Department, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Medical Department, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
| | - Paramjit Singh Gill
- Unit of Academic Primary Care, University of Warwick, Coventry, England, United Kingdom
| | - Themba T G Ginindza
- Department of Public Health Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Alem Girmay
- Department of Nursing, A.C.S. Medical College and Hospital, Aksum, Ethiopia
| | - Muluken Gizaw
- School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | | | - Sameer Vali Gopalani
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Oklahoma, Oklahoma City
- Department of Health and Social Affairs, Government of the Federated States of Micronesia, Palikir, Federated States of Micronesia
| | - Giuseppe Gorini
- Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Section, Cancer Prevention and Research Institute, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Ayman Grada
- School of Medicine, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | | | - Prakash C Gupta
- Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
- Department of Epidemiology, Healis Sekhsaria Institute for Public Health, Mumbai, India
| | - Rahul Gupta
- West Virginia Bureau for Public Health, Charleston
- Department of Health Policy, Management & Leadership, West Virginia University, Morgantown
| | | | - Arvin Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Obesity Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Arya Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Radiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Randah R Hamadeh
- Department of Family and Community Medicine, Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain
| | - Samer Hamidi
- School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | | | - Josep Maria Haro
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network, Madrid, Spain
- Research and Development Unit, San Juan de Dios Sanitary Park, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
| | - Milad Hasankhani
- School of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Amir Hasanzadeh
- Department of Microbiology, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
- Department of Microbiology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hamid Yimam Hassen
- Public Health Department, Mizan-Tepi University, Teppi, Ethiopia
- Unit of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University Hospital Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Roderick J Hay
- International Foundation for Dermatology, London, England, United Kingdom
- St John's Institute of Dermatology, King's College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Nathaniel J Henry
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Claudiu Herteliu
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Hagos D Hidru
- Department of Epidemiology, Adigrat University, Adigrat, Ethiopia
| | - Chi Linh Hoang
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | - Praveen Hoogar
- Transdisciplinary Centre for Qualitative Methods, Manipal University, Manipal, India
| | - Nobuyuki Horita
- Department of Pulmonology, Yokohama City University, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Japan
- National Human Genome Research Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - H Dean Hosgood
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY
| | - Mostafa Hosseini
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
- Department of Computer Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Computer Science, University of Human Development, Sulaimaniyah, Iraq
| | - Mihaela Hostiuc
- Department of General Surgery, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Internal Medicine, Bucharest Emergency Hospital, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Sorin Hostiuc
- Faculty of Dentistry, Department of Legal Medicine and Bioethics, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Clinical Legal Medicine, National Institute of Legal Medicine Mina Minovici, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Mowafa Househ
- Division of Information and Computing Technology, College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
- Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - Bogdan Ileanu
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
- Center for Health Outcomes & Evaluation, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Milena D Ilic
- Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
| | - Kaire Innos
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kufre Robert Iseh
- Department of Surgery, Usmanu Danfodiyo University Teaching Hospital, Sokoto, Nigeria
| | - Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam
- Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia
- Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Farhad Islami
- Surveillance and Health Services Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | | | - Morteza Jafarinia
- ,Department of Immunology, School of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Leila Jahangiry
- Health Education and Health Promotion Department, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | | | - Nader Jahanmehr
- School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Spencer L James
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Sudha Jayaraman
- Department of Surgery, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond
| | - Sun Ha Jee
- Department of Public Health, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Ensiyeh Jenabi
- Faculty of Nursing & Midwifery, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
| | - Ravi Prakash Jha
- Department of Community Medicine, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
| | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Jitendra Jonnagaddala
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- NSW Health, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Tamas Joo
- Health Services Management Training Centre, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | | | - Mikk Jürisson
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ali Kabir
- Minimally Invasive Surgery Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Farin Kamangar
- Department of Biology, Morgan State University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - André Karch
- Institute for Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Münster, Germany
| | - Narges Karimi
- Immunogenetics Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- Department of Neurology, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Ansar Karimian
- Cellular and Molecular Biology Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
- Drug Applied Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Hematologic Malignancies Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Belete Kassa
- Department of Pharmacology and Clinical Pharmacy, Addis Ababa University, Dessie, Ethiopia
| | | | - Mesfin Wudu Kassaw
- Nursing Department, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
- Department of Public Health, Amhara Public Health Institute, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Anil Kaul
- School of Health Care Administration, Oklahoma State University, Tulsa
- Health Care Delivery Sciences, University of Tulsa, Tulsa, Oklahoma
| | | | | | - Amene Abebe Kerbo
- Department of Public Health, Madda Walabu University, Goba, Ethiopia
- School of Public Health, Wolaita Sodo University, Wolaita Sodo, Ethiopia
| | - Yousef Saleh Khader
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Ramtha, Jordan
| | - Maryam Khalilarjmandi
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Ejaz Ahmad Khan
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics Department, Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Gulfaraz Khan
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Immunology, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | - Young-Ho Khang
- Division of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Khaled Khatab
- Faculty of Health and Wellbeing, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, United Kingdom
- College of Arts and Sciences, Ohio University, Zanesville
| | - Amir Khater
- Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology Department, National Hepatology and Tropical Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Maryam Khayamzadeh
- Cancer Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Academy of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Maryam Khazaee-Pool
- Department of Public Health, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- Health Sciences Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Salman Khazaei
- Department of Epidemiology, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
| | - Abdullah T Khoja
- Department of Public Health, Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Mohammad Hossein Khosravi
- Student Research Committee, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- International Otorhinolaryngology Research Association, Tehran, Iran
| | - Jagdish Khubchandani
- Department of Nutrition and Health Science, Ball State University, Muncie, Indiana
| | - Neda Kianipour
- Department of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Daniel Kim
- Department of Health Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Yun Jin Kim
- School of Medicine, Xiamen University Malaysia, Sepang, Malaysia
| | - Adnan Kisa
- Department of Health Management and Health Economics, Kristiania University College, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Health Services Policy & Management, University of South Carolina, Columbia
| | - Sezer Kisa
- Department of Nursing and Health Promotion, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Hamidreza Komaki
- Neurophysiology Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
- Brain Engineering Research Center, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ai Koyanagi
- Networking Center for Mental Health Network, San Juan de Dios Sanitary Park, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Kristopher J Krohn
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Burcu Kucuk Bicer
- Department of Public Health, Yüksek Ihtisas University, Ankara, Turkey
- Department of Public Health, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Nuworza Kugbey
- Department of Family and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana
- Department of Psychology and Health Promotion, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Vivek Kumar
- Department of Medicine Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Desmond Kuupiel
- Department of Public Health Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Nursing, St. John of God Hospital, Duayaw Nkwanta, Ghana
| | - Carlo La Vecchia
- Clinical Medicine and Community Health, A.C.S. Medical College and Hospital, Milan, Italy
| | - Deepesh P Lad
- Department of Internal Medicine, Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - Eyasu Alem Lake
- Department of Nursing, Wolaita Sodo University, Sodo, Ethiopia
| | - Ayenew Molla Lakew
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | | | - Faris Hasan Lami
- Department of Community and Family Medicine, Academy of Medical Science, Baghdad, Iraq
| | - Qing Lan
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Savita Lasrado
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Father Muller Medical College, Mangalore, India
| | - Paolo Lauriola
- Institute of Clinical Physiology, Italian National Research Council, Pisa, Italy
| | | | - James Leigh
- Asbestos Diseases Research Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Yu Liao
- Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
- Alliance for Improving Health Outcomes, Inc, Quezon City, Philippines
| | | | - Stefan Listl
- Department of Dentistry, Radboud University, Nijmegen, Netherlands
- Section for Translational Health Economics, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Alan D Lopez
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Queensland, Australia
| | - Platon D Lopukhov
- Department of Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- Department of General Surgery, Aintree University Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, England, United Kingdom
- Department of Surgery, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, England, United Kingdom
| | - Mohammed Madadin
- Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | - Sameh Magdeldin
- Proteomics and Metabolomics Unit, Suez Canal University, Cairo, Egypt
- Department of Physiology, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt
| | | | - Azeem Majeed
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Afshin Maleki
- Department of Environmental Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Ali Manafi
- Department of Plastic Surgery, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Navid Manafi
- Department of Ophthalmology, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | | | - Morteza Mansourian
- Department of Health Education and Promotion, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Ali Mansournia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Saman Maroufizadeh
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Santi Martini S Martini
- Department of Epidemiology, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia
- Indonesian Public Health Association, Surabaya, Indonesia
| | | | | | | | - Manu Raj Mathur
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Colm McAlinden
- Department of Ophthalmology, Hywel Dda University Health Board, Carmarthen, Wales, United Kingdom
| | - Martin McKee
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Hailemariam Abiy Alemu Meheretu
- Department of Nursing, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
- School of Public Health, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Ravi Mehrotra
- Department of Preventive Oncology, National Institute of Cancer Prevention and Research, Noida, India
| | - Varshil Mehta
- Department of Internal Medicine, SevenHills Hospital, Mumbai, India
| | - Toni Meier
- Institute for Agricultural and Nutritional Sciences, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
- Innovation Office, Competence Cluster for Nutrition and Cardiovascular Health, Halle, Germany
| | - Yohannes A Melaku
- Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
- Adelaide Medical School, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | | | | | - Addisu Melese
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Mulugeta Melku
- Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Peter T N Memiah
- Department of Public Health, University of West Florida, Pensacola, Florida
| | - Walter Mendoza
- Peru Country Office, United Nations Population Fund, Lima, Peru
| | - Ritesh G Menezes
- Forensic Medicine Division, Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | - Shahin Merat
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Tuomo J Meretoja
- Breast Surgery Unit, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
- University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Tomislav Mestrovic
- Clinical Microbiology and Parasitology Unit, Dr. Zora Profozic Polyclinic, Zagreb, Croatia
- University Centre Varazdin, University North, Varazdin, Croatia
| | - Bartosz Miazgowski
- Center for Innovation in Medical Education, Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland
- Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland
| | - Tomasz Miazgowski
- Department of Hypertension, Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland
| | | | - Ted R Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Edward J Mills
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Seyed Mostafa Mir
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
- Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Golestan, Iran
| | - Hamed Mirzaei
- Research Center for Biochemistry and Nutrition in Metabolic Diseases, Kashan University of Medical Sciences, Kashan, Iran
| | - Hamid Reza Mirzaei
- Department of Medical Immunology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rashmi Mishra
- Department of Oral Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Babak Moazen
- Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Institute of Addiction Research, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Frankfurt, Germany
| | - Dara K Mohammad
- Department of Biology, Salahaddin University, Erbil, Iraq
- Department of Medicine, Huddinge, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Yousef Mohammad
- Department of Internal Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Aso Mohammad Darwesh
- Department of Information Technology, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
| | - Hiwa Mohammadi
- Department of Neurology, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Moslem Mohammadi
- Department of Physiology and Pharmacology, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Mahdi Mohammadian
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Bushehr University of Medical Sciences, Bushehr, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Ammas Siraj Mohammed
- School of Pharmacy, College of Medicine and Health Science, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | | | - Shafiu Mohammed
- Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
| | - Farnam Mohebi
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Iran National Institute of Health Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Yoshan Moodley
- Department of Public Health Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Mahmood Moosazadeh
- Health Sciences Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Maryam Moossavi
- Department of Molecular Medicine, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran
| | - Ghobad Moradi
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Mohammad Moradi-Joo
- Department of Economics and Management Sciences for Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Farhad Moradpour
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Lidia Morawska
- International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Naho Morisaki
- Department of Social Medicine, National Center for Child Health and Development, Setagaya, Japan
| | | | - Abbas Mosapour
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Seyyed Meysam Mousavi
- Department of Health Management and Economics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Oumer Sada S Muhammed
- Department of Pharmacology and Clinical Pharmacy, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Jonah Musa
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Jos, Jos, Nigeria
- Center for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Ashraf F Nabhan
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
- Knowledge Translation and Utilization, Egyptian Center for Evidence Based Medicine, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Mehdi Naderi
- School of Paramedical Sciences, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan
- Department of Research and Analytics, Initiative for Financing Health and Human Development, Chennai, India
- Department of Research and Analytics, Bioinsilico Technologies, Chennai, India
| | - Gabriele Nagel
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany
| | - Azin Nahvijou
- Cancer Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Gurudatta Naik
- O'NealComprehensive Cancer Center, University of Alabama at Birmingham
| | - Farid Najafi
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Luigi Naldi
- Department of Dermatology, San Bortolo Hospital, Vicenza, Italy
- GISED Study Center, Bergamo, Italy
| | - Hae Sung Nam
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Chungnam National University School of Medicine, Daejeon, South Korea
- Daejeon Regional Cancer Center, Chungnam National University Hospital, Daejeon, South Korea
| | - Naser Nasiri
- Department of Public Health, School of Public Health, Jiroft University of Medical Sciences, Jiroft, Iran
| | - Javad Nazari
- Department of Pediatrics, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
- Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ionut Negoi
- Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Subas Neupane
- Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland
| | - Polly A Newcomb
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Haruna Asura Nggada
- Department of Histopathology, University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, Maiduguri, Nigeria
- Department of Human Pathology, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria
| | | | - Cuong Tat Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Leila Nikniaz
- Tabriz Health Services Management Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum
- Department of Public Health Sciences, State University of Semarang, Semarang, Indonesia
- Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei City, Taiwan
| | | | - Molly R Nixon
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Chukwudi A Nnaji
- Cochrane South Africa, South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Marzieh Nojomi
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Community and Family Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Shirin Nosratnejad
- Department of Health Economics, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | | | | | - Richard Ofori-Asenso
- Centre of Cardiovascular Research and Education in Therapeutics, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Independent consultant, Accra, Ghana
| | - Felix Akpojene Ogbo
- Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
| | - In-Hwan Oh
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Dongdaemun-gu, South Korea
| | - Andrew T Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Tinuke O Olagunju
- Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mojisola Morenike Oluwasanu
- Department of Health Promotion and Education, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Abidemi E Omonisi
- Department of Anatomic Pathology, Ekiti State University, Ado- Ekiti, Nigeria
- Department of Anatomic Pathology, Ekiti State University Teaching Hospital, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria
| | - Obinna E Onwujekwe
- Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu, Nigeria
| | - Anu Mary Oommen
- Department of Community Health, Christian Medical College, Vellore, India
| | - Eyal Oren
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle
- Graduate School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, California
| | | | - Erika Ota
- Department of Global Health Nursing, St. Luke's International University, Chuo-ku, Japan
| | | | - Mayowa Ojo Owolabi
- Institute for Advanced Medical Research and Training, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Mahesh P A
- Department of TB & Respiratory Medicine, Jagadguru Sri Shivarathreeswara University, Mysore, India
| | | | - Smita Pakhale
- Department of Medicine, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Amir H Pakpour
- Department of Public Health, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
- Department of Nursing, Jönköping University, Jönköping, Sweden
| | - Adrian Pana
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
- Center for Health Outcomes & Evaluation, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Eun-Kee Park
- Department of Medical Humanities and Social Medicine, Kosin University, Busan, South Korea
| | - Hadi Parsian
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Tahereh Pashaei
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Shanti Patel
- Department of Medicine, Maimonides Medical Center, Brooklyn, New York
| | - Snehal T Patil
- Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences, Deemed University, Karad, India
| | - Alyssa Pennini
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - David M Pereira
- Requimte/LAQV, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- University of Cartagena, Cartagena, Colombia
| | - Cristiano Piccinelli
- ReferenceCenter for Epidemiology and Cancer Prevention, CPO Piedmont, Torino, Italy
| | - Julian David Pillay
- Basic Medical Sciences Department, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa
| | - Majid Pirestani
- Departments of Parasitology and Entomology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Farhad Pishgar
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Uro-Oncology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Maarten J Postma
- University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
| | - Hadi Pourjafar
- Department of Public Health, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
- Department of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
| | - Farshad Pourmalek
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Akram Pourshams
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Swayam Prakash
- Department of Nephrology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India
| | - Narayan Prasad
- Department of Nephrology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India
| | - Mostafa Qorbani
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Mohammad Rabiee
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
| | - Navid Rabiee
- Department of Chemistry, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
- Divisions of Chemistry and Diseases, Advanced Technologies Research Group, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Alireza Rafiei
- Department of Immunology, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- Molecular and Cell Biology Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Fakher Rahim
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Thalassemia and Hemoglobinopathy Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Mahdi Rahimi
- Drug Applied Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Muhammad Aziz Rahman
- Austin Health Clinical School of Nursing, La Trobe University, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
- National Centre for Farmer Health, Deakin University, Waurn Ponds, Victoria, Australia
| | - Fatemeh Rajati
- Department of Health Education and Promotion, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Saleem M Rana
- Department of Public Health, Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
- Public Health Department, University of Health Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Samira Raoofi
- Department of Health Services Management, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Goura Kishor Rath
- Department of Radiation Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - David Laith Rawaf
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training, Imperial College London, London, England, United Kingdom
- University College London Hospitals, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Salman Rawaf
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, England, United Kingdom
- Academic Public Health, Public Health England, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Andre M N Renzaho
- School of Social Sciences and Psychology, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Nima Rezaei
- Research Center for Immunodeficiencies, Children's Medical Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Network of Immunity in Infection, Malignancy, and Autoimmunity, Universal Scientific Education and Research Network, Tehran, Iran
| | - Aziz Rezapour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ana Isabel Ribeiro
- Epidemiology Research Unit, Institute of Public Health, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Daniela Ribeiro
- Department of Applied Chemistry, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Luca Ronfani
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Elias Merdassa Roro
- School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Department of Public Health, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Ali Rostami
- Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | | | - Parisa Sabbagh
- Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Siamak Sabour
- Department of Epidemiology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Basema Saddik
- Medical Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Saeid Safiri
- Managerial Epidemiology Research Center, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
| | - Amirhossein Sahebkar
- Biotechnology Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
- Neurogenic Inflammation Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | | | - Farkhonde Salehi
- Taleghani Hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Hosni Salem
- Department of Urology, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Marwa Rashad Salem
- Public Health and Community Medicine Department, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
| | - Hamideh Salimzadeh
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Joshua A Salomon
- Center for Health Policy and Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Abdallah M Samy
- Department of Entomology, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Juan Sanabria
- Department of Surgery, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia
- Departments of Nutrition and Preventive Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | | | - Benn Sartorius
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Arash Sarveazad
- Colorectal Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Brijesh Sathian
- Surgery Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Faculty of Health & Social Sciences, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, England, United Kingdom
| | - Maheswar Satpathy
- UGC Centre of Advanced Study in Psychology, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, India
- Udyam-Global Association for Sustainable Development, Bhubaneswar, India
| | | | - Monika Sawhney
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte
| | - Mehdi Sayyah
- Education Development Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Ione J C Schneider
- School of Health Sciences, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Ararangua, Brazil
| | - Ben Schöttker
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Mario Sekerija
- Department of Medical Statistics, Epidemiology and Medical Informatics, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
- Division of Epidemiology and Prevention of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases, Croatian Institute of Public Health, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Masood Sepehrimanesh
- Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi
- Center of Expertise in Microbiology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Invasive Fungi Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Faramarz Shaahmadi
- Department of Health Promotion and Education, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Hosein Shabaninejad
- Department of Health Policy, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Shahbaz
- Department of Epidemiology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Amir Shamshirian
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Morteza Shamsizadeh
- Chronic Diseases (Home Care) Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
| | - Heidar Sharafi
- Department of Molecular Hepatology, Middle East Liver Disease Center, Tehran, Iran
| | - Zeinab Sharafi
- Razi Herbal Medicines Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
| | - Mehdi Sharif
- Department of Basic Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Sari, Iran
- Department of Laboratory Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Sari, Iran
| | - Ali Sharifi
- Department of Ophthalmology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Hamid Sharifi
- HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Rajesh Sharma
- University School of Management and Entrepreneurship, Delhi Technological University, New Delhi, India
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
- Division of General Internal Medicine and Primary Care, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Reza Shirkoohi
- Cancer Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Cancer Biology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Sharvari Rahul Shukla
- Symbiosis Institute of Health Sciences, Symbiosis International University, Pune, Maharashtra, India
| | - Si Si
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Soraya Siabani
- Imam Ali Cardiovascular Research Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
- Faculty of Health, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira
- University of Brasília, Brasília, Brazil
- Department of the Health Industrial Complex and Innovation in Health, Ministry of Health, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Ambrish Singh
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- Global Patient Outcome and Real World Evidence, Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana
| | - Jasvinder A Singh
- Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Alabama at Birmingham
| | - Solomon Sisay
- Medical Department, German Leprosy and TB Relief Association, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Freddy Sitas
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Eugène Sobngwi
- Department of Internal Medicine and Specialties, University of Yaoundé I, Yaoundé, Cameroon
- Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Central Hospital of Yaoundé, Yaoundé, Cameroon
| | - Moslem Soofi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Joan B Soriano
- Hospital Universitario de la Princesa, Autonomous University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Vasiliki Stathopoulou
- Department of Occupational Therapy, Athens University of Applied Sciences, Athens, Greece
| | | | - Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos
- Department of Medicine, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain
| | - Takahiro Tabuchi
- Cancer Control Center, Osaka International Cancer Institute, Osaka, Japan
| | - Ken Takahashi
- Asbestos Diseases Research Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Omid Reza Tamtaji
- Research Center for Biochemistry and Nutrition in Metabolic Diseases, Kashan University of Medical Sciences, Kashan, Iran
| | | | | | - Parvaneh Taymoori
- Department of Public Health, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Community Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohamad-Hani Temsah
- College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Pediatrics, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Omar Temsah
- College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Fisaha Haile Tesfay
- Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
- Southgate Institute for Health, Society and Equity, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | | | - Gizachew Assefa Tessema
- Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Subash Thapa
- Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
| | | | - Roman Topor-Madry
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland
- The Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Tariff System, Warsaw, Poland
| | | | - Eugenio Traini
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Bach Xuan Tran
- Department of Health Economics, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Khanh Bao Tran
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Pathology, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Department of Clinical Hematology and Toxicology, Military Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Irfan Ullah
- Gomal Center of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan
| | - Olalekan A Uthman
- Division of Health Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, England, United Kingdom
| | - Marco Vacante
- Department of General Surgery and Medical-Surgical Specialties, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Maryam Vaezi
- Women's Reproductive Health Research Center, A.C.S. Medical College and Hospital, Tabriz, Iran
- Alzahra Teaching Hospital, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Patricia Varona Pérez
- Department for International Development, Health Network of Cuba, Havana, Cuba
- Centre of Research in Environmental Epidemiology, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Yousef Veisani
- Psychosocial Injuries Research Center, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran
| | - Simone Vidale
- Department of Neurology & Stroke Unit, Sant'Anna Hospital, Como, Italy
| | - Francesco S Violante
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
- Occupational Health Unit, Sant'Orsola Malpighi Hospital, Bologna, Italy
| | - Vasily Vlassov
- Department of Health Care Administration and Economy, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
| | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Kia Vosoughi
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Giang Thu Vu
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | - Henry Wabinga
- Department of Pathology, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | | | - Yasir Waheed
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Fitsum Weldegebreal
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | | | - Tissa Wijeratne
- Department of Psychology and Counselling, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Medicine, University of Melbourne, St Albans, Victoria, Australia
| | - Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash
- Department of Pharmacology and Clinical Pharmacy, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | | | - Adam Belay Wondmieneh
- Department of Nursing, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
- Department of Nursing, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | | | - Rajaram Yadav
- Department of Population Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | - Abbas Yadegar
- Foodborne and Waterborne Diseases Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali Yadollahpour
- Department of Medical Physics, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Mehdi Yaseri
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Ophthalmic Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi
- Department of Health Management, Policy, and Economics, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
- Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Engida Yisma
- School of Allied Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Neuropsychopharmacology, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mustafa Z Younis
- Health Economics & Finance, Global Health, Jackson State University, Jackson, Mississippi
- Department of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Bahman Yousefi
- Drug Applied Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Mahmoud Yousefifard
- Physiology Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
- Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Erfan Zabeh
- Department of Electrical Engineering, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Electrical Engineering, Bioelectric Group, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
| | - Vesna Zadnik
- Epidemiology and Cancer Registry Sector, Institute of Oncology, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Telma Zahirian Moghadam
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Ardabil University of Medical Science, Ardabil, Iran
| | - Zoubida Zaidi
- Department of Epidemiology, University Hospital of Setif, Setif, Algeria
| | - Mohammad Zamani
- Student Research Committee, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Hamed Zandian
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Ardabil University of Medical Science, Ardabil, Iran
| | - Alireza Zangeneh
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Leila Zaki
- Department of Parasitology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kazem Zendehdel
- Cancer Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Taye Abuhay Zewale
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Arash Ziapour
- Health Promotion Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
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James SL, Theadom A, Ellenbogen RG, Bannick MS, Montjoy-Venning W, Lucchesi LR, Abbasi N, Abdulkader R, Abraha HN, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Alebel A, Alghnam SA, Ali BA, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Ariani F, Asefa NG, Asgedom SW, Atique S, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Badali H, Badawi A, Balalla S, Banstola A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay YA, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Beuran M, Bhalla A, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biffino M, Bijani A, Bililign N, Birungi C, Boufous S, Brazinova A, Brown AW, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang JC, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Cooper C, Crowe CS, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Davitoiu DV, Degefa MG, Demoz GT, Deribe K, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doku DT, Drake TM, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, El-Khatib Z, Ofori-Asenso R, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Ganji M, Gankpe FG, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gezae KE, Gopalkrishna G, Goulart AC, Haagsma JA, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Haro JM, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hegazy MI, Hendrie D, Henok A, Hibstu DT, Hoffman HJ, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hosseini SM, Hostiuc S, Hu G, Hussen MA, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Jakovljevic M, Jayaraman S, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jones KM, Jorjoran Shushtari Z, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kahsay A, Kahssay M, Kalani R, Karch A, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kengne AP, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khalil I, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khang YH, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kim D, Kim YE, Kisa A, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Lalloo R, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Laryea DO, Latifi A, Leshargie CT, Levi M, Li S, Liben ML, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Mahotra NB, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manda AL, Mansournia MA, Massenburg BB, Mate KKV, Mehndiratta MM, Mehta V, Meles H, Melese A, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Mengistu G, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohammadi M, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mousavi SM, Murthy S, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Naghavi M, Naik G, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Negoi I, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nyasulu PS, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pakhale S, Pandey AR, Pesudovs K, Pinilla-Monsalve GD, Polinder S, Poustchi H, Prakash S, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajati F, Ram U, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Reiner RC, Reis C, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Saddik B, Safari H, Safiri S, Sahraian MA, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MMM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savuon K, Schneider IJC, Schwebel DC, Sepanlou SG, Shabaninejad H, Shaikh MAA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Shariful Islam SM, She J, Sheikh A, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shoman H, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Sinha DN, Smith M, Soares Filho AM, Sobhani S, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Stein DJ, Stokes MA, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sunshine JE, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Te Ao BJ, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Topor-Madry R, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tudor Car L, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Wagnew FWS, Waheed Y, Wang YP, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wyper GMA, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yost MG, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zenebe ZM, Zodpey S, Feigin VL, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Neurol 2019; 18:56-87. [PMID: 30497965 PMCID: PMC6291456 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(18)30415-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 908] [Impact Index Per Article: 181.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2018] [Revised: 10/02/2018] [Accepted: 10/30/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. FINDINGS In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. INTERPRETATION TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abdurahman AA, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Agrawal A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MLCB, Ahmed S, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Anlay DZ, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asadi-Lari M, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atey TMM, Athari SS, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Attia EF, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awuah B, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhatia E, Bhatt S, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bose D, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brant LC, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton G, Brugha T, Burke KE, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Çavlin A, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chen W, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Cohen AJ, Collado-Mateo D, Constantin MM, Conti S, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cucu A, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Weaver ND, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, Dayama A, Courten BD, De la Hoz FP, De leo D, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Dolan KA, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Drake TM, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, Elfaramawi M, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar IRF, Enayati A, Endries AYY, Er B, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Feizy F, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Feyissa GT, Fijabi DO, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Ford JA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Galan A, Gallus S, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpe FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gebre T, Gebre AK, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gelano TF, Gelaw YA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gessner BD, Getachew S, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghiasvand H, Ghimire M, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goli S, Gomez RS, Gomez-Cabrera MC, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi I, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Horino M, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hostiuc M, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ikeda CT, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Isehunwa OO, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain R, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman S, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, K M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kahssay M, Kalani R, Kapil U, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi N, Karimi SM, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kassebaum NJ, Katibeh M, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazemeini H, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, K C P, Kebede S, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khanna T, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kibret GDD, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim JY, Kim YE, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinra S, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kissoon N, Kivimäki M, Kleber ME, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosek MN, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krishnaswami S, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kumsa FA, Kutz MJ, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lami FH, Lan Q, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Laryea DO, Lassi ZS, Latifi A, Lavados PM, Laxmaiah A, Lazarus JV, Lebedev G, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Leta S, Levi M, Li S, Li Y, Li X, Liang J, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lonsdale C, Lorch SA, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Mabika C, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Maddison R, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malik MA, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manamo WA, Manda AL, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marina S, Martinez-Raga J, Martins SCO, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Marzan MB, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Masiye F, Massenburg BB, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehendale SM, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonen T, Mekonnen TC, Meles HG, Meles KG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miangotar Y, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Moazen B, Moges NA, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M, Mohammed S, Mohammed MA, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Moschos MM, Mousavi SM, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Mullany EC, Muller K, Murhekar M, Murphy TB, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Nair S, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Nawaz H, Ncama BP, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen TH, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nisar MI, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nsoesie EO, Nyasulu PS, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogah OS, Ogbo FA, Oh 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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1684-1735. [PMID: 30496102 PMCID: PMC6227504 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31891-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 575] [Impact Index Per Article: 95.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Revised: 07/14/2018] [Accepted: 08/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:2091-2138. [PMID: 30496107 PMCID: PMC6227911 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 264] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2018] [Revised: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. FINDINGS The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. INTERPRETATION The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Shupler MS, Si S, Siabani S, Sibai AM, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Skirbekk V, Smith DL, Smith M, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Somayaji R, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spinelli A, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Starodubov VI, Steckling N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stevanovic G, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Sturua L, Subart ML, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew SG, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekelemedhin SW, Tekle MG, Temesgen H, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thankappan KR, Theis A, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas HJ, Thomas ML, Thomas N, Thurston GD, Tilahun B, Tillmann T, To QG, Tobollik M, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Tran KB, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tymeson HD, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Valdez PR, Van Donkelaar A, Varavikova E, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Venkateswaran V, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vu GT, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Waller SG, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegebreal F, Werdecker A, Werkneh AA, West JJ, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wiyeh AB, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wong TY, Wu S, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang AL, Zhang H, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1923-1994. [PMID: 30496105 PMCID: PMC6227755 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32225-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2618] [Impact Index Per Article: 436.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2018] [Revised: 08/31/2018] [Accepted: 09/05/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations. METHODS We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. FINDINGS In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. INTERPRETATION By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sardana M, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Saroshe S, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schaeffner E, Schelonka K, Schneider IJC, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shakir RA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi H, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shukla SR, Si S, Siabani S, Sibai AM, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singam NSV, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Starodubov VI, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Strong M, Subart ML, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadakamadla SK, Tandon N, Tassew AA, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tawye NY, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomson AJ, Tilahun B, To QG, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tovani-Palone MR, Toyoshima H, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathy SP, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsegay A, Tsilimparis N, Tudor Car L, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford H, Widecka J, Widecka K, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wyper GMA, Xu G, Yamada T, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang X, Zhao XJ, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Lopez AD, Lim SS. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1995-2051. [PMID: 30496106 PMCID: PMC6227915 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 243] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2018] [Revised: 09/07/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. FINDINGS From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. INTERPRETATION Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Fitzmaurice C, Akinyemiju TF, Al Lami FH, Alam T, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Allen C, Alsharif U, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini E, Anderson BO, Aremu O, Artaman A, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Awasthi A, Ba Saleem HO, Barac A, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Bhakta N, Brenner H, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Curado MP, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Doku DT, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Ebrahimi H, Edessa D, El-Khatib Z, Endries AY, Fischer F, Force LM, Foreman KJ, Gebrehiwot SW, Gopalani SV, Grosso G, Gupta R, Gyawali B, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Harvey J, Hassen HY, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Heibati B, Hiluf MK, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Ilesanmi OS, Innos K, Islami F, Jakovljevic MB, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Kasaeian A, Kassa TD, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kopec JA, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Lad DP, Lafranconi A, Lan Q, Legesse Y, Leigh J, Linn S, Lunevicius R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mantovani LG, McMahon BJ, Meier T, Melaku YA, Melku M, Memiah P, Mendoza W, Meretoja TJ, Mezgebe HB, Miller TR, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moosazadeh M, Moraga P, Mousavi SM, Nangia V, Nguyen CT, Nong VM, Ogbo FA, Olagunju AT, Pa M, Park EK, Patel T, Pereira DM, Pishgar F, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Roshandel G, Safiri S, Salimzadeh H, Sanabria JR, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sepanlou SG, Shackelford KA, Shaikh MA, Sharif-Alhoseini M, She J, Shin MJ, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sinke AH, Sisay M, Sligar A, Sufiyan MB, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tessema GA, Topor-Madry R, Tran TT, Tran BX, Ukwaja KN, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Weiderpass E, Williams HC, Yimer NB, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Murray CJL, Naghavi M. Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2016: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. JAMA Oncol 2018; 4:1553-1568. [PMID: 29860482 PMCID: PMC6248091 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2018.2706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1054] [Impact Index Per Article: 175.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE The increasing burden due to cancer and other noncommunicable diseases poses a threat to human development, which has resulted in global political commitments reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases. To determine if these commitments have resulted in improved cancer control, quantitative assessments of the cancer burden are required. OBJECTIVE To assess the burden for 29 cancer groups over time to provide a framework for policy discussion, resource allocation, and research focus. EVIDENCE REVIEW Cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were evaluated for 195 countries and territories by age and sex using the Global Burden of Disease study estimation methods. Levels and trends were analyzed over time, as well as by the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Changes in incident cases were categorized by changes due to epidemiological vs demographic transition. FINDINGS In 2016, there were 17.2 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.9 million deaths. Cancer cases increased by 28% between 2006 and 2016. The smallest increase was seen in high SDI countries. Globally, population aging contributed 17%; population growth, 12%; and changes in age-specific rates, -1% to this change. The most common incident cancer globally for men was prostate cancer (1.4 million cases). The leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (1.2 million deaths and 25.4 million DALYs). For women, the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was breast cancer (1.7 million incident cases, 535 000 deaths, and 14.9 million DALYs). In 2016, cancer caused 213.2 million DALYs globally for both sexes combined. Between 2006 and 2016, the average annual age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 130 of 195 countries or territories, and the average annual age-standardized death rates decreased within that timeframe in 143 of 195 countries or territories. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Large disparities exist between countries in cancer incidence, deaths, and associated disability. Scaling up cancer prevention and ensuring universal access to cancer care are required for health equity and to fulfill the global commitments for noncommunicable disease and cancer control.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Christina Fitzmaurice
- Division of Hematology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | | | | | - Tahiya Alam
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Reza Alizadeh-Navaei
- Gastrointestinal Cancer Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Christine Allen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ubai Alsharif
- Charite University Medicine Berlin, Charité Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nelson Alvis-Guzman
- ALZAK Foundation-Universidad de la Costa, Universidad de Cartagena, Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia
| | - Erfan Amini
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Uro-Oncology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Olatunde Aremu
- Birmingham City, University Department of Public Health and Therapies, Birmingham, England
| | - Al Artaman
- University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | | | - Reza Assadi
- Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | | | | | - Ashish Awasthi
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
| | | | - Aleksandra Barac
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - James R Bennett
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | | | - Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela
- Colombian National Health Observatory, Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogota, Bogota, DC, Colombia
- Epidemiology and Public Health Evaluation Group, Public Health Department, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia
| | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- Department of Medicine, University of Valencia, INCLIVA Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain
- Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Jee-Young Jasmine Choi
- Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
- Seoul National University Medical Library, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Sheng-Chia Chung
- The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England
| | - Maria Paula Curado
- Accamargo Cancer Center, Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
- International Prevention Research Institute, Ecully, France
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - Rakhi Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - José das Neves
- INEB-Instituto de Engenharia Biomédica, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- i3S-Instituto de Investigação e Inovação em Saúde, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Samath D Dharmaratne
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
| | - David Teye Doku
- University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
- University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland
| | - Tim R Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Manisha Dubey
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - Hedyeh Ebrahimi
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Liver and Pancreaticobiliary Diseases Research Center, Digestive Disease Research Institute, Shariati Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Ziad El-Khatib
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Kigali, Rwanda
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Florian Fischer
- School of Public Health, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
| | - Lisa M Force
- St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee
| | - Kyle J Foreman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Imperial College London, London, England
| | | | - Sameer Vali Gopalani
- Department of Health and Social Affairs, Government of the Federated States of Micronesia, Palikir, Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia
| | - Giuseppe Grosso
- University Hospital Policlinico "Vittorio Emanuele," Catania, Italy
- NNEdPro Global Centre for Nutrition and Health, Cambridge, England
| | - Rahul Gupta
- West Virginia Bureau for Public Health, Charleston
| | | | | | - Samer Hamidi
- Haan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - James Harvey
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Roderick J Hay
- International Foundation for Dermatology, London, England
- King's College London, London, England
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, England
| | - Behzad Heibati
- Air Pollution Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Nobuyuki Horita
- Department of Pulmonology, Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - H Dean Hosgood
- Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York, USA
| | | | - Kaire Innos
- National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Farhad Islami
- Surveillance and Health Services Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Mihajlo B Jakovljevic
- Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Central Serbia, Serbia
- Center for Health Trends and Forecasts, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematologic Malignancies Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Yousef Saleh Khader
- Department of Community Medicine, Public Health and Family Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | | | - Gulfaraz Khan
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, College of Medicine & Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Young-Ho Khang
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Mohammad Hossein Khosravi
- Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- International Otorhinolaryngology Research Association (IORA), Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN), Tehran, Iran
| | - Jagdish Khubchandani
- Department of Nutrition and Health Science, Ball State University, Muncie, Indiana
| | - Jacek A Kopec
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - Michael Kutz
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | - Qing Lan
- National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | | | - James Leigh
- University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- Aintree University Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, England
- School of Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, England
| | - Azeem Majeed
- Department of Primary Care & Public Health, Imperial College London, London, England
| | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Toni Meier
- Competence Cluster for Nutrition and Cardiovascular Health (nutriCARD), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Saale, Germany
| | - Yohannes Adama Melaku
- School of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | | | | | | | - Tuomo J Meretoja
- Comprehensive Cancer Center, Breast Surgery Unit, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
- University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Ted R Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Shafiu Mohammed
- Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
- Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Baden Wuettemberg, Germany
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mahmood Moosazadeh
- Health Science Research Center, Addiction Institute, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Paula Moraga
- Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, England
| | - Seyyed Meysam Mousavi
- Department of Health Management and Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Cuong Tat Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Vuong Minh Nong
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Felix Akpojene Ogbo
- Centre for Health Research, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Andrew Toyin Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry, College of Medicine, University of Lagos, Lagos, Lagos State, Nigeria
- Department of Psychiatry, Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria
- Discipline of Psychiatry, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Mahesh Pa
- JSS Medical College (PA), JSS University, Mysore, Karnataka, India
| | - Eun-Kee Park
- Department of Medical Humanities and Social Medicine, College of Medicine, Kosin University, Busan, South Korea
| | - Tejas Patel
- White Plains Hospital, White Plains, New York
| | - David M Pereira
- REQUIMTE/LAQV, Laboratório de Farmacognosia, Departamento de Química, Faculdade de Farmácia, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Farhad Pishgar
- Uro-Oncology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Maarten J Postma
- University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
- University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | | | - Mostafa Qorbani
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan
- Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - David Laith Rawaf
- North Hampshire Hospitals, Basingstroke, England
- University College London Hospitals, London, England
- WHO Collaborating Centre, Imperial College of London, London, England
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Saeid Safiri
- Managerial Epidemiology Research Center, Department of Public Health, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
| | | | - Juan Ramon Sanabria
- Joan C. Edwards School of Medicine, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia
- Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Milena M Santric Milicevic
- Centre School of Public Health and Health Management, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
- Institute of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Benn Sartorius
- Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- UKZN Gastrointestinal Cancer Research Centre, South African Medical Research Council, Durban, South Africa
| | - Maheswar Satpathy
- Centre of Advanced Study in Psychology, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, India
| | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Jun She
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital (She), Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Min-Jeong Shin
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Ivy Shiue
- Alzheimer Scotland Dementia Research Centre, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
- Institut für Medizinische Epidemiologie, Biometrie und Informatik, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Saale, Germany
| | | | | | | | - Amber Sligar
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Bryan L Sykes
- Departments of Criminology, Law & Society, Sociology, and Public Health, University of California, Irvine
| | - Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos
- Department of Medicine, University of Valencia, INCLIVA Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain
| | - Gizachew Assefa Tessema
- University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
- University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Roman Topor-Madry
- Institute of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Kraków, Poland
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Wroclaw Medical University, Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Tung Thanh Tran
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Bach Xuan Tran
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
- Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja
- Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
| | | | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, Folkhälsan Research Center, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Hywel C Williams
- Centre of Evidence-Based Dermatology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, England
| | | | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | | | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
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Fullman N, Yearwood J, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abreu DMX, Abu-Raddad LJ, Adane AA, Adedoyin RA, Adetokunboh O, Adhikari TB, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agius D, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Aichour MTE, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al Lami FH, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam T, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali SD, Alijanzadeh M, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Alomari MA, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amenu K, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber N, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Antonio CAT, Araújo VEM, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Asghar RJ, Ashebir MM, Asseffa NA, Atey TM, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayalew AA, Ayele HT, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi P, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Babalola TK, Badali H, Badawi A, Banach M, Banerjee A, Banstola A, Barber RM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Bernstein RS, Beuran M, Bhalla A, Bhatt P, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bizuneh H, Bolliger IW, Bolt K, Bou-Orm IR, Bozorgmehr K, Brady OJ, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton G, Brugha TS, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Car J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chalek J, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Colombara D, Conti S, Cooper C, Cornaby L, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Costa Pereira A, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Daryani M, Das J, Das SK, das Neves J, Davis Weaver N, Davletov K, de Courten B, De Leo D, De Neve JW, Dellavalle RP, Demoz G, Deribe K, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Dolan K, Dorsey ER, dos Santos KPB, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duncan BB, Echko M, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Ehrlich JR, Eldrenkamp E, El-Khatib ZZ, Endres M, Endries AY, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Fakhar M, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Faraon EJA, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fatusi A, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Fijabi DO, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Flor LS, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frostad JJ, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Gallus S, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Ganji M, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gelaw YA, Geleijnse JM, Geremew D, Gething PW, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Gill PS, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Goli S, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goryakin Y, Goulart AC, Grada A, Griswold M, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta T, Gupta V, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harewood HC, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, He J, Hearps SJC, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henry NJ, Herrera Ballesteros VH, Herteliu C, Hibstu DT, Hiluf MK, Hoek HW, Homaie Rad E, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hosseini M, Hosseini SR, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idris F, Igumbor EU, Ikeda C, Ileanu BV, Ilesanmi OS, Innos K, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islami F, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jain R, Jain SK, Jakovljevic MB, Jalu MT, Jamal AA, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Jóúwiak J, John O, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshua V, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Kar C, Karanikolos M, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimi SM, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Kebede S, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Kereselidze M, Ketema EB, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan MN, Khan MA, Khanal MN, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khoja ATA, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kibret GD, Kiirithio DN, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinra S, Kisa A, Kissoon N, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kumar P, Kutz M, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lan Q, Lang JJ, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larsson A, Latifi A, Lazarus JV, Leasher JL, Lee PH, Legesse Y, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Leta S, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Liang J, Liben ML, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lind M, Linn S, Listl S, Liu P, Liu S, Lodha R, Lopez AD, Lorch SA, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Lurton G, Lyons RA, Maalouf F, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manhertz T, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Margono C, Martinez-Raga J, Martins SCO, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Meier T, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Meles KG, Melku M, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengiste DA, Mengistu DT, Menota BG, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski T, Micha R, Milam R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mini GK, Minnig S, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mitchell PB, Mlashu FW, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadibakhsh R, Mohammed E, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Molokhia M, Momeniha F, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Moosazadeh M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velasquez I, Mori R, Morrison SD, Moses M, Mousavi SM, Mueller UO, Murhekar M, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nagata C, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naik GA, Naik N, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nansseu JRN, Narayan KMV, Nascimento BR, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Newton CR, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen G, Nguyen L, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nolte E, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Nyandwi A, Obermeyer CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Oliveira PPVD, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong K, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Ozdemir R, PA M, Pain AW, Palone MRT, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Park EK, Parsian H, Patel T, Pati S, Patil ST, Patle A, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paudel D, Pedroso MDM, Pedroza SP, Pereira DM, Perico N, Peterson H, Petzold M, Peykari N, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Piradov MA, Polinder S, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Prakash S, Prakash V, Prasad N, Prasad NM, Purcell C, Qorbani M, Quintana HK, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Raju SB, Ram U, Rana SM, Rankin Z, Rasella D, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Razo-García CA, Reddy P, Reiner RC, Reis C, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro AL, Rios Blancas MJ, Rivera JA, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salama J, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sancheti PK, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sarker AR, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan MI, Schaeffner E, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schumacher AE, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shafieesabet A, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Shams-Beyranvand M, Sharafi H, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shfare MT, Shi P, Shields C, Shigematsu M, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Shukla SR, Siabani S, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh L, Singh NP, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sinke AH, Sisay M, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Smith A, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BHA, Somai M, Soneji S, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stokes MA, Sturua L, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tadesse AH, Taffere GR, Tandon N, Tariku AT, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temam Shifa G, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Tesema AG, Tesfaye DJ, Tessema B, Thakur JS, Thomas N, Thompson MJ, Tillmann T, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Torre A, Tortajada M, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi A, Tripathy SP, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tsoi D, Tudor Car L, Tuem KB, Tyrovolas S, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Updike R, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, Valdez PR, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagnew F, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weaver MR, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss J, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, West TE, Westerman R, White RG, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wondimkun YA, Workicho A, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yimer NB, Yin P, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zenebe ZM, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zimsen SRM, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL, Lozano R. Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2018; 391:2236-2271. [PMID: 29893224 PMCID: PMC5986687 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)30994-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 504] [Impact Index Per Article: 84.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2018] [Revised: 03/23/2018] [Accepted: 04/18/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. METHODS Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. FINDINGS In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. INTERPRETATION GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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ER, dos Santos KPB, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, El-Khatib ZZ, Ellerstrand J, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fanuel FBB, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Flor LS, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Franklin RC, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Ganji M, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Ghajar A, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gold AL, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Goulart AC, Griswold M, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hailu AD, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hanson SW, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Haro JM, Harvey J, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hay RJ, 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Leshargie CT, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Li Kappe D, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim SS, Linn S, Liu PY, Liu A, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Logroscino G, London SJ, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Low N, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Macarayan ERK, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Manhertz T, Mantilla A, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marczak LB, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Mathur MR, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGaughey M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McNellan C, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen TC, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistie MA, Mengistu DT, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mitchell PB, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohanty SK, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Mori R, Morozoff C, Morrison SD, Moses M, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mruts KB, Mueller UO, Muller K, Murdoch ME, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negasa DE, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Newton CR, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen TH, Nguyen QL, Nguyen CT, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nolte S, Nong VM, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, O'Donnell MJ, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju TO, Olagunju AT, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong K, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Osman M, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pacella RE, Pana A, Panda BK, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paulson K, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Plass D, Pletcher MA, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Prasad N, Purcell C, Qorbani M, Quansah R, Quintanilla BPA, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Rankin Z, Rao PC, Rao PV, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Ribeiro AL, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Saadat S, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Salama J, Saleem HOB, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Setegn T, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shi P, Shields C, Shifa GT, Shigematsu M, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shirude S, Shishani K, Shrime MG, Sibai AM, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Skirbekk V, Slepak EL, Sligar A, Smith DL, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Sorensen RJD, Sousa TCM, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein MB, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Stovner LJ, Strub B, Subart M, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Sylte DO, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Taffere GR, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Taylor HR, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Terkawi AS, Tesfaye DJ, Tesssema B, Thamsuwan O, Thomas KE, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tollanes MC, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Tortajada M, Touvier M, Tran BX, Tripathi S, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tsoi D, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venkatesh S, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wang YP, Weaver M, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Woolf AD, Workicho A, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zegeye EA, Zenebe ZM, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1211-1259. [PMID: 28919117 PMCID: PMC5605509 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32154-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4400] [Impact Index Per Article: 628.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2017] [Revised: 07/22/2017] [Accepted: 07/26/2017] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. METHODS We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). INTERPRETATION The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
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Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adetifa IMO, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Aggarwal R, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akanda AS, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al Lami FH, Alabed S, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alasfoor D, Aldridge RW, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkaabi JM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allam SD, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber N, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Assaye AM, Atey TM, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Babalola TK, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Balalla S, Barac A, Barber RM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Benson J, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bidgoli HH, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Bjerregaard P, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brugha TS, Bukhman G, Bulto LNB, Bumgarner BR, Burch M, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Car J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro FF, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Chen H, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colquhoun SM, Coresh J, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, de Courten B, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, Dixit P, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, dos Santos KPB, Douwes-Schultz D, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Dwivedi LK, Ebrahimi H, El Bcheraoui C, Ellingsen CL, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshetie S, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fanuel FBB, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frank T, Franklin RC, Fraser M, Friedman J, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpé FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebrekidan KG, Gebremichael MW, Gelaye AA, Geleijnse JM, Gemechu BL, Gemechu KS, Genova-Maleras R, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Girma BW, Giussani G, Goenka S, Gomez B, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Goulart AC, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hakuzimana A, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hambisa MT, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He F, Heredia-Pi IB, Herteliu C, Hilawe EH, Hoek HW, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Huang H, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ileanu BV, Inoue M, Irenso AA, Irvine CMS, Islam SMS, Islam N, Jacobsen KH, Jaenisch T, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jin Y, John D, John O, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimi SM, Karthikeyan G, Kasaeian A, Kassaw NA, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Ketema EB, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja ATA, Khosravi MH, Kibret GD, Kieling C, Kim YJ, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim P, Kim S, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kishawi S, Kissoon N, Kivimaki M, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kumar P, Kumsa FA, Kutz M, Lachat C, Lagat AK, Lager ACJ, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lambert N, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Lavados PM, Laxmaiah A, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Liao Y, Liben ML, Lim SS, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lorch SA, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Macarayan ER, Machado IE, Mackay MT, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marczak LB, Marks GB, Martin EA, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Massano J, Maulik PK, Mayosi BM, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehta KM, Meier T, Mekonnen TC, Meles KG, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistie MA, Mengistu DT, Menon GR, Menota BG, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Mikesell J, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mohanty SK, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Mooney MD, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Mori R, Morrison SD, Mruts KB, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagata C, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naidoo KS, Nanda L, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Ningrum DNA, Nisar MI, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Nyakarahuka L, O'Donnell MJ, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Ota E, Owolabi MO, Oyekale AS, PA M, Pacella RE, Pakhale S, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Park EK, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petri WA, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Postma MJ, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad N, Purwar M, Qorbani M, Quintanilla BPA, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rao PV, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Rego MAS, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro AL, Rivas JC, Rokni MB, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Saadat S, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salama J, Salamati P, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan MI, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schulhofer-Wohl S, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Seid AM, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shen J, Shetty BP, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shifa GT, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Sindi S, Singh JA, Singh PK, Singh A, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skarbek KAK, Skiadaresi E, Sligar A, Smith DL, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stöckl H, Stokes MA, Strong M, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tadese F, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tarajia M, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Tekle DY, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Tesema CL, Tesssema B, Theis A, Thomas N, Thompson AH, Thomson AJ, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tortajada M, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tsilimparis N, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, van Boven JFM, Varakin YY, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Velasquez IM, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vishnu A, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Waid JL, Wakayo T, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Wesana J, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Workicho A, Workie SB, Xavier D, Xu G, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang AL, Zhang X, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1084-1150. [PMID: 28919115 PMCID: PMC5605514 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)31833-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 488] [Impact Index Per Article: 69.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2017] [Revised: 05/21/2017] [Accepted: 06/07/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. INTERPRETATION Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
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Gakidou E, Afshin A, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Adedeji IA, Adetokunboh O, Afarideh M, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Ali K, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Ansari H, Antó JM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arian N, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Ballew SH, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Batis C, Battle KE, Baumgarner BR, Baune BT, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhansali A, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Bou-Orm IR, Brauer M, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brugha TS, Bulto LNB, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chang HY, Charlson FJ, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Comfort H, Cooper C, Coresh J, Cornaby L, Cortesi PA, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, de Courten B, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deshpande A, Dharmaratne SD, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donkelaar AV, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Duncan S, Ebrahimi H, El-Khatib ZZ, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fay K, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Ganji M, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleijnse JM, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Ghajar A, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goryakin Y, Goulart AC, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Guo J, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hanson SW, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hedayati MT, Hendrie D, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernandez JCM, Hoek HW, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang JJ, Huang H, Ibrahim NM, Iburg KM, Ikeda C, Inoue M, Irvine CMS, Jackson MD, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jauregui A, Javanbakht M, Jeemon P, Johansson LRK, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemmer L, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kieling C, Kim JY, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek KA, Kivimaki M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kromhout H, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lee PH, Lee A, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Levy TS, Li Y, Li Y, Liang X, Liben ML, Linn S, Liu P, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Macarayan ERK, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Mathur MR, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mohammad KA, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mueller UO, Mullany EC, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pacella RE, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pillay JD, Piradov MA, Pishgar F, Plass D, Pletcher MA, Polinder S, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad N, Purcell C, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rawaf S, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Reynales-Shigematsu LM, Rezaei S, Ribeiro AL, Rivera JA, Roba KT, Rojas-Rueda D, Roman Y, Room R, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rushton L, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sahathevan R, Salama J, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shen J, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shields C, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shishani K, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Slepak EL, Smith DL, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Strub B, Subart M, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tanner M, Tarekegn YL, Tavakkoli M, Tegegne TK, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Terkawi AS, Tesssema B, Thakur JS, Thamsuwan O, Thankappan KR, Theis AM, Thomas ML, Thomson AJ, Thrift AG, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tobollik M, Tollanes MC, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre A, Tortajada M, Touvier M, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Veerman LJ, Venkateswaran V, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Workicho A, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yaseri M, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang X, Zimsen SRM, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1345-1422. [PMID: 28919119 PMCID: PMC5614451 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32366-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1554] [Impact Index Per Article: 222.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2017] [Revised: 08/07/2017] [Accepted: 08/21/2017] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. FINDINGS Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. INTERPRETATION Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. FUNDING The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.
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Naghavi M, Abajobir AA, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Agrawal A, Ahmadi A, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour MTE, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali SD, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkaabi JM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber N, Andersen HH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari H, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFG, Awasthi A, Babalola TK, Bacha U, Balakrishnan K, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Baune BT, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Bell ML, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Bisanzio D, Bourne RRA, Breitborde NJK, Bulto LNB, Bumgarner BR, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cameron E, Campuzano JC, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Charlson FJ, Chibueze CE, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colombara D, Cooper C, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, de Courten B, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Deribe K, Deribew A, Dey S, Dicker D, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doku DT, Douwes-Schultz D, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Echko M, El-Khatib ZZ, Ellingsen CL, Enayati A, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Foigt N, Frank T, Fraser M, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Gakidou E, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremichael DY, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gold AL, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gouda HN, Goulart AC, Griswold M, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Gupta PC, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hambisa MT, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, He F, Hedayati MT, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Herteliu C, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Ikeda C, Ileanu BV, Irenso AA, Irvine CMS, Islam SMS, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jeemon P, Jha V, John D, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Karch A, Karimi SM, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Kassaw NA, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khoja ATA, Khosravi MH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kieling C, Kievlan D, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kissoon N, Kivimaki M, Knudsen AK, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kulikoff XR, Kumar GA, Kumar P, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lambert TLN, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Li Y, Li Kappe D, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim SS, Liu PY, Liu A, Liu Y, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Maddison ER, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Manguerra H, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marczak LB, Markos D, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, McAlinden C, McGaughey M, McGrath JJ, Mehata S, Meier T, Meles KG, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mengesha MM, Mengistu DT, Menota BG, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Millear A, Miller TR, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mohamed IA, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mola GLD, Mollenkopf SK, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montañez JC, Montico M, Mooney MD, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morozoff C, Morrison SD, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mruts KB, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Nasher JT, Natarajan G, Negoi I, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nong VM, Noubiap JJN, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Olagunju AT, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong K, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osman M, Ota E, PA M, Pacella RE, Pakhale S, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Papachristou C, Park EK, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Paulson K, Pereira DM, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Plass D, Pletcher MA, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Purcell C, Qorbani M, Quintanilla BPA, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rai RK, Ranabhat CL, Rankin Z, Rao PC, Rath GK, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Rokni MB, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Ruhago GM, SA R, Saadat S, Sachdev PS, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Salama J, Salamati P, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schulhofer-Wohl S, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shey M, Shi P, Shields C, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirude S, Shiue I, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silpakit N, Silva JP, Singh JA, Singh A, Skiadaresi E, Sligar A, Smith DL, Smith A, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Strong M, Strub B, Subart M, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Talongwa RT, Tarawneh MR, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tegegne TK, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Thakur JS, Thamsuwan O, Thankappan KR, Thomas KE, Thompson AH, Thomson AJ, Thrift AG, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Torre A, Tortajada M, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tsoi D, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Updike R, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, van Boven JFM, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wakayo T, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whetter B, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Workicho A, Xavier D, Xiao Q, Xu G, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yimam HH, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zegeye EA, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang AL, Zhang X, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1151-1210. [PMID: 28919116 PMCID: PMC5605883 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32152-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2992] [Impact Index Per Article: 427.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2017] [Revised: 06/30/2017] [Accepted: 07/04/2017] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. METHODS We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. FINDINGS The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. INTERPRETATION The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulkader RS, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adedeji IA, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Ansari H, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TM, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bannick MS, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barrero LH, Basu S, Battle KE, Baune BT, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bidgoli HH, Bikbov B, Bilal AI, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bizuayehu HM, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Bose D, Bou-Orm IR, Brauer M, Breitborde NJK, Brugha TS, Bulto LNB, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cameron E, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chew A, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Cirillo M, Cooper C, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davitoiu DV, de Courten B, De Steur H, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Deribe K, deVeber GA, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donkelaar AV, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebel BE, Ebrahimi H, El-Khatib ZZ, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frank T, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad JJ, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Gakidou E, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleijnse JM, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gething PW, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glenn SD, Godwin WW, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goryakin Y, Griswold M, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, He J, Hendrie D, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Holmberg M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Huang JJ, Huang H, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Ikeda C, Inoue M, Irvine CMS, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jauregui A, Javanbakht M, Jeemon P, Jha V, John D, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemmer L, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim JY, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek KA, Kivimaki M, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kulikoff XR, Kumar GA, Kumar Lal D, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Lalloo R, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lazarus JV, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Liben ML, Linn S, Liu PY, Liu S, Lodha R, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marks GB, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, Mathur MR, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGaughey M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Meles KG, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistie MA, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mitchell PB, Mohammad KA, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Moses MW, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mueller UO, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong K, Oren E, Ortiz A, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Papachristou C, Park EK, Patton GC, Paulson K, Pereira DM, Perico DN, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Piradov MA, Pishgar F, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rawaf S, Reidy P, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rios Blancas MJ, Rivas JC, Roba KT, Rojas-Rueda D, Rokni MB, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Salama J, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan MI, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schneider MT, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shields C, Shifa GT, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shirude S, Shishani K, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Slepak EL, Sligar A, Smith DL, Smith A, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soljak M, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Strub B, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tandon N, Tao T, Tarekegn YL, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tegegne TK, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Torre A, Tortajada M, Tran BX, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tsoi D, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang X, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1423-1459. [PMID: 28916366 PMCID: PMC5603800 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32336-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 190] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2017] [Revised: 08/07/2017] [Accepted: 08/08/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. METHODS We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. FINDINGS Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. INTERPRETATION GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Barber RM, Fullman N, Sorensen RJD, Bollyky T, McKee M, Nolte E, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abdurahman AA, Abera SF, Abraham B, Abreha GF, Adane K, Adelekan AL, Adetifa IMO, Afshin A, Agarwal A, Agarwal SK, Agarwal S, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadi A, Ahmed KY, Ahmed MB, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam SS, Alemu ZA, Alene KA, Alexander L, Ali R, Ali SD, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amo-Adjei J, Amoako YA, Anderson BO, Androudi S, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Assadi R, Astatkie A, Atey TM, Atique S, Atnafu NT, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Quintanilla BPA, Awasthi A, Ayele NN, Azzopardi P, Saleem HOB, Bärnighausen T, Bacha U, Badawi A, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Barrero LH, Basu S, Baune BT, Baye K, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Bernal OA, Beyene AS, Beyene TJ, Bhutta ZA, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Bose D, Brainin M, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Butt ZA, Cárdenas R, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Car J, Carrero JJ, Casey D, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cecilio P, Cercy K, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Chew A, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coggeshall MS, Cooper LT, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Dalal K, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De Leo D, Del Gobbo LC, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Dubey M, Ehrenkranz R, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar I, Enayati A, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fürst T, Faghmous IDA, Fanuel FBB, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Feyissa TR, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Forouzanfar MH, Franklin RC, Frostad J, G/hiwot TT, Gakidou E, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gao W, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael MW, Gebru AA, Gelaye AA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gibney KB, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gold A, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Graetz N, Greaves F, Griswold M, Guban PI, Gugnani HC, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Habtewold TD, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Hakuzimana A, Hamadeh RR, Hambisa MT, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Hendrie D, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang H, Huang JJ, Huntley BM, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Ileanu BV, Innos K, Irenso AA, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, John D, Johnson C, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimi SM, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kazanjan K, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Kerbo AA, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil I, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khoja ATA, Khonelidze I, Khubchandani J, Kibret GD, Kim D, Kim P, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Kokubo Y, Kolk A, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krishnaswami S, Krohn KJ, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kumsa FA, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Lager ACJ, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leshargie CT, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Liang X, Lim SS, Lind M, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu P, Liu Y, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lopez AD, Lorch SA, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, El Razek HMA, El Razek MMA, Mahdavi M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Marks GB, Marquez N, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Massano J, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McNellan C, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Mekonnen AB, Meles KG, Memish ZA, Mengesha MM, Mengiste DT, Mengistie MA, Menota BG, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Mills EJ, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammed S, Mohanty SK, Mokdad AH, Mola GLD, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Mori R, Moses M, Mueller UO, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagata C, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Negoi I, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen G, Ningrum DNA, Nolte S, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osborne RH, Osman M, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pain AW, Pakhale S, Castillo EP, Pana A, Papachristou C, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patton GC, Paudel D, Paul VK, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Polinder S, Pond CD, Prakash V, Purwar M, Qorbani M, Quistberg DA, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rai RK, Ram U, Rana SM, Rankin Z, Rao PV, Rao PC, Rawaf S, Rego MAS, Reitsma M, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMNN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro AL, Roba HS, Rokni MB, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy NK, Sachdev PS, Sackey BB, Saeedi MY, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Saleh MM, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sandar L, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Saylan MI, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Seid AM, Seifu CN, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Setegn T, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Shamsipour M, Islam SMS, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shi P, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Sibamo ELS, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinke AH, Sinshaw AE, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Smith A, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Soriano JB, Sousa TCM, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Stranges S, Strong M, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sun J, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Taffere GR, Talongwa RT, Tarajia M, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Teeple S, Tegegne TK, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Tekle DY, Shifa GT, Terkawi AS, Tesema AG, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Tillmann T, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Tortajada M, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tura AK, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Van Dingenen R, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner JA, Wakayo T, Waller SG, Walson JL, Wang H, Wang YP, Watkins DA, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Wen CP, Werdecker A, Wesana J, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Workicho A, Workie SB, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zapata T, Zenebe ZM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2017; 390:231-266. [PMID: 28528753 PMCID: PMC5528124 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30818-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 307] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2016] [Revised: 02/26/2017] [Accepted: 02/28/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. METHODS We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. INTERPRETATION This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Nast A, Rosumeck S, Erdmann R, Alsharif U, Dressler C, Werner RN. Methods report on the development of the European evidence-based (S3) guideline for the treatment of acne - update 2016. J Eur Acad Dermatol Venereol 2017; 30:e1-e28. [PMID: 27514933 DOI: 10.1111/jdv.13783] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2016] [Accepted: 04/25/2016] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- A Nast
- Division of Evidence-Based Medicine (dEBM), Klinik für Dermatologie, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - S Rosumeck
- Division of Evidence-Based Medicine (dEBM), Klinik für Dermatologie, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - R Erdmann
- Division of Evidence-Based Medicine (dEBM), Klinik für Dermatologie, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - U Alsharif
- Division of Evidence-Based Medicine (dEBM), Klinik für Dermatologie, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - C Dressler
- Division of Evidence-Based Medicine (dEBM), Klinik für Dermatologie, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - R N Werner
- Division of Evidence-Based Medicine (dEBM), Klinik für Dermatologie, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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Alsharif U, Al-Moraissi E, Alabed S. Systemic antibiotic prophylaxis for preventing infectious complications in maxillofacial trauma surgery. Hippokratia 2017. [DOI: 10.1002/14651858.cd012603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ubai Alsharif
- Charite-Universitatsmedizin Berlin; Chariteplatz 1 Berlin Germany 10117
| | - Essam Al-Moraissi
- Thamar University; Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery; Radaa Street Thamar Thamar Yemen
| | - Samer Alabed
- University of Sheffield; Academic Unit of Radiology; Sheffield UK
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Moradi-Lakeh M, Forouzanfar MH, Vollset SE, El Bcheraoui C, Daoud F, Afshin A, Charara R, Khalil I, Higashi H, Abd El Razek MM, Kiadaliri AA, Alam K, Akseer N, Al-Hamad N, Ali R, AlMazroa MA, Alomari MA, Al-Rabeeah AA, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Atique S, Badawi A, Barrero LH, Basulaiman M, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Bensenor IM, Buchbinder R, Danawi H, Dharmaratne SD, Zannad F, Farvid MS, Fereshtehnejad SM, Farzadfar F, Fischer F, Gupta R, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Horino M, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Husseini A, Javanbakht M, Jonas JB, Kasaeian A, Khan EA, Khubchandani J, Knudsen AK, Kopec JA, Lunevicius R, Abd El Razek HM, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Mate K, Mehari A, Meltzer M, Memish ZA, Mirarefin M, Mohammed S, Naheed A, Obermeyer CM, Oh IH, Park EK, Peprah EK, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Shiri R, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rana SM, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, Shiue I, Sibai AM, Silva DAS, Singh JA, Skogen JC, Terkawi AS, Ukwaja KN, Westerman R, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Lim SS, Wang H, Vos T, Naghavi M, Lopez AD, Murray CJL, Mokdad AH. Burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Ann Rheum Dis 2017; 76:1365-1373. [PMID: 28209629 PMCID: PMC5738600 DOI: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2016-210146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2016] [Revised: 09/28/2016] [Accepted: 01/19/2017] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Objectives We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 to report the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). Methods The burden of musculoskeletal disorders was calculated for the EMR's 22 countries between 1990 and 2013. A systematic analysis was performed on mortality and morbidity data to estimate prevalence, death, years of live lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results For musculoskeletal disorders, the crude DALYs rate per 100 000 increased from 1297.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 924.3–1703.4) in 1990 to 1606.0 (95% UI 1141.2–2130.4) in 2013. During 1990–2013, the total DALYs of musculoskeletal disorders increased by 105.2% in the EMR compared with a 58.0% increase in the rest of the world. The burden of musculoskeletal disorders as a proportion of total DALYs increased from 2.4% (95% UI 1.7–3.0) in 1990 to 4.7% (95% UI 3.6–5.8) in 2013. The range of point prevalence (per 1000) among the EMR countries was 28.2–136.0 for low back pain, 27.3–49.7 for neck pain, 9.7–37.3 for osteoarthritis (OA), 0.6–2.2 for rheumatoid arthritis and 0.1–0.8 for gout. Low back pain and neck pain had the highest burden in EMR countries. Conclusions This study shows a high burden of musculoskeletal disorders, with a faster increase in EMR compared with the rest of the world. The reasons for this faster increase need to be explored. Our findings call for incorporating prevention and control programmes that should include improving health data, addressing risk factors, providing evidence-based care and community programmes to increase awareness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.,Department of Community Medicine, Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad H Forouzanfar
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.,Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway.,Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Charbel El Bcheraoui
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Farah Daoud
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Ashkan Afshin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Raghid Charara
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Ibrahim Khalil
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | | | - Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Orthopedics, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Khurshid Alam
- Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Nadia Akseer
- Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Nawal Al-Hamad
- Food and Nutrition Administration, Ministry of Health, Safat, Kuwait
| | | | | | - Mahmoud A Alomari
- Division of Physical Therapy, Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | | | | | | | - Suleman Atique
- Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Alaa Badawi
- Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Lope H Barrero
- Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogota, Colombia
| | | | - Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi
- Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science, Los Angeles, California, USA.,David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), California, USA
| | - Neeraj Bedi
- College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Rachelle Buchbinder
- Monash Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Cabrini Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Hadi Danawi
- Walden University, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Samath D Dharmaratne
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
| | - Faiez Zannad
- Clinical Investigation Centre INSERM (the National Institute for Health and Medical Research), Université de Lorraine, Vandoeuvre les Nancy, France
| | - Maryam S Farvid
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.,Harvard/MGH Center on Genomics, Vulnerable Populations, and Health Disparities, Mongan Institute for Health Policy, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrine and Metabolic Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Rahul Gupta
- West Virginia Bureau for Public Health, Charleston, West Virginia, USA
| | | | - Samer Hamidi
- Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - Masako Horino
- Nevada Division of Behavior and Public Health, Carson City, Nevada, USA.,Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Damian G Hoy
- Public Health Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia
| | | | - Abdullatif Husseini
- Institute of Community and Public Health, Birzeit University, Birzeit, Palestine
| | - Mehdi Javanbakht
- Health Economics Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.,Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Ann Kristin Knudsen
- Department of Health Registries, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway
| | - Jacek A Kopec
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- Aintree University Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK.,School of Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | | | | | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran Universities of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kedar Mate
- McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Alem Mehari
- College of Medicine, Howard University, Washington DC, USA
| | - Michele Meltzer
- Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Ziad A Memish
- Saudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.,College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Shafiu Mohammed
- Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria.,Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Aliya Naheed
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Center for Research on Population and Health, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - In-Hwan Oh
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Eun-Kee Park
- Department of Medical Humanities and Social Medicine, College of Medicine, Kosin University, Busan, South Korea
| | | | | | - Mostafa Qorbani
- Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan.,Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rahman Shiri
- Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | | | - Saleem M Rana
- Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan.,Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Ivy Shiue
- Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.,Alzheimer Scotland Dementia Research Centre, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Abla Mehio Sibai
- Department of Epidemiology & Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | | | - Jasvinder A Singh
- University of Alabama at Birmingham, and Birmingham Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Birmingham, Alabama, USA
| | - Jens Christoffer Skogen
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway.,Alcohol and Drug Research Western Norway, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway
| | - Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi
- Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA.,Outcomes Research Consortium, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.,Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Kingsley N Ukwaja
- Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - Ronny Westerman
- Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany.,German National Cohort Consortium, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Seok-Jun Yoon
- Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | | | | | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Haidong Wang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Alan D Lopez
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.,Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Alahdab F, Alabed S, Al-Moujahed A, Al Sallakh MA, Alyousef T, Alsharif U, Fares M, Murad MH. Evidence-based medicine: a persisting desire under fire. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2016; 22:9-11. [PMID: 27965267 DOI: 10.1136/ebmed-2016-110608] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Healthcare infrastructure and medical schools in Syria have been greatly compromised by military conflict and humanitarian disaster. Medical students and healthcare professionals reached out for remote learning opportunities. Surprisingly, they desired a curriculum in evidence-based medicine. We report on a curriculum that was delivered to 126 learners using an online remote delivery platform. This experience demonstrates the feasibility of this approach in disaster-stricken areas and underscores the importance of evidence-based medicine even under such conditions.
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Khalil I, Colombara DV, Forouzanfar MH, Troeger C, Daoud F, Moradi-Lakeh M, Bcheraoui CE, Rao PC, Afshin A, Charara R, Abate KH, Razek MMAE, Abd-Allah F, Abu-Elyazeed R, Kiadaliri AA, Akanda AS, Akseer N, Alam K, Alasfoor D, Ali R, AlMazroa MA, Alomari MA, Al-Raddadi RMS, Alsharif U, Alsowaidi S, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Ammar W, Antonio CAT, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Awasthi A, Bacha U, Badawi A, Barac A, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bensenor IM, Betsu BD, Bhutta Z, Abdulhak AAB, Butt ZA, Danawi H, Dubey M, Endries AY, Faghmous IDA, Farid T, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Gibney KB, Ginawi IAM, Gishu MD, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Harb HL, Hedayati MT, Hsairi M, Husseini A, Jahanmehr N, Javanbakht M, Jibat T, Jonas JB, Kasaeian A, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khoja TAM, Kinfu Y, Kissoon N, Koyanagi A, Lal A, Latif AAA, Lunevicius R, Razek HMAE, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Mehari A, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Misganaw A, Mohamed LAI, Nachega JB, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Peprah EK, Platts-Mills JA, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rao SR, Refaat AH, Riddle M, Roshandel G, Ruhago GM, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sawhney M, Sepanlou SG, Setegn T, Sliwa K, Sreeramareddy CT, Sykes BL, Tavakkoli M, Tedla BA, Terkawi AS, Ukwaja K, Uthman OA, Westerman R, Wubshet M, Yenesew MA, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Rabeeah AAA, Wang H, Naghavi M, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL, Mokdad AH. Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2016; 95:1319-1329. [PMID: 27928080 PMCID: PMC5154365 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2016] [Accepted: 07/03/2016] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibrahim Khalil
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Danny V Colombara
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | | | - Christopher Troeger
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Farah Daoud
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Department of Community Medicine, Gastrointestinal and Liver Disease Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.,Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Charbel El Bcheraoui
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Puja C Rao
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Ashkan Afshin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Raghid Charara
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | | | | | | | | | - Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri
- Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.,Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Orthopedics, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | | | - Nadia Akseer
- University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.,The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada
| | - Khurshid Alam
- University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.,University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.,Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Raghib Ali
- University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Mahmoud A Alomari
- Division of Physical Therapy, Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | | | | | - Shirina Alsowaidi
- Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | | | | | | | - Carl Abelardo T Antonio
- Department of Health Policy and Administration, College of Public Health, University of the Philippines, Manila, Philippines
| | - Hamid Asayesh
- Department of Medical Emergency, School of Paramedic, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
| | | | - Suleman Atique
- Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Ashish Awasthi
- Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India
| | - Umar Bacha
- School of Health Sciences, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Alaa Badawi
- Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, Canada
| | | | - Neeraj Bedi
- College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | | | - Zulfiqar Bhutta
- Medical Center, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.,The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada
| | | | - Zahid A Butt
- Al Shifa Trust Eye Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | | | - Manisha Dubey
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | | | - Imad D A Faghmous
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Talha Farid
- University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky
| | - Maryam S Farvid
- Institute for Health Policy, Boston, Massachusetts.,University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Katherine B Gibney
- Melbourne Health, Parkville, Australia.,Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Melkamu Dedefo Gishu
- Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Harar, Ethiopia.,Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
| | - Harish Chander Gugnani
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Saint James School of Medicine, Anguilla, British West Indies.,Department of Microbiology, Saint James School of Medicine, Anguilla, British West Indies
| | - Rahul Gupta
- West Virginia Bureau for Public Health, Charleston, West Virginia
| | - Gessessew Bugssa Hailu
- Kilte Awlaelo Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Ethiopia.,Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | | | - Samer Hamidi
- Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | | | - Mohammad T Hedayati
- Department of Medical Mycology and Parasitology, School of Medicine, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Mohamed Hsairi
- Department of Epidemiology, Salah Azaiz Institute, Tunis, Tunisia
| | | | - Nader Jahanmehr
- Department of Public Health, School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Tariku Jibat
- Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands.,Addis Ababa University, Debre Zeit, Ethiopia
| | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.,Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Gulfaraz Khan
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | | | - Yohannes Kinfu
- Centre for Research and Action in Public Health, Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia
| | | | - Ai Koyanagi
- Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Deu (CIBERSAM), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Aparna Lal
- Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | | | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- School of Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.,Aintree University Hospital, National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Alem Mehari
- Howard University College of Medicine, Washington, District of Columbia
| | | | - Yohannes Adama Melaku
- School of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.,School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | - Ziad A Memish
- College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.,Saudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Awoke Misganaw
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | | | - Jean B Nachega
- Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.,University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Quyen Le Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | | | | | | | | | - Mostafa Qorbani
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan.,Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Saleem M Rana
- Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan.,Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Chhabi L Ranabhat
- Institute for Poverty Alleviation and International Development, Yonsei University, Wonju, South Korea.,Wonju College of Medicine, Yonsei University, Wonju, South Korea
| | - Sowmya R Rao
- Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Amany H Refaat
- Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.,Walden University, Minneapolis, Minnesota
| | - Mark Riddle
- Naval Medical Research Center, Silver Spring, Maryland
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran.,Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Juan R Sanabria
- Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.,Department of Surgery and Comprehensive Cancer Center, Joan C. Edwards School of Medicine, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia
| | | | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Karen Sliwa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | | | - Bryan L Sykes
- Departments of Criminology, Law and Society, Sociology, and Public Health, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, California
| | | | - Bemnet Amare Tedla
- James Cook University, Cairns, Australia.,University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Abdullah S Terkawi
- Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.,Outcomes Research Consortium, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio.,Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia
| | - Kingsley Ukwaja
- Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - Olalekan A Uthman
- Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Ronny Westerman
- German National Cohort Consortium, Heidelberg, Germany.,Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
| | - Mamo Wubshet
- Addis Continental Institute of Public Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.,University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | | | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | | | | | | | - Haidong Wang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Alan D Lopez
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.,Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
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Lim SS, Allen K, Bhutta ZA, Dandona L, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Hay SI, Holmberg M, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lopez AD, Lozano R, McNellan CR, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Olsen HE, Pigott DM, Salomon JA, Vos T, Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed KY, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam U, Alasfoor D, AlBuhairan FS, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alkhateeb MAB, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barber R, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barrero LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez T, Basu S, Bayou TA, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Bernal OA, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff KA, Bikbov B, Binagwaho A, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore J, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Broday DM, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey D, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cecílio P, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Che X, Chen AZ, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cohen AJ, Cooke GS, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damtew SA, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Neves JD, Davis AC, Davletov K, de Castro EF, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Gobbo LC, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Deshpande A, deVeber GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Felicio MM, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt N, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Fraser M, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Gabbe B, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Gessner BD, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin W, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Graetz N, Greenwell KF, Griswold M, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Haakenstad A, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang H, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Inoue M, Islami F, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Jansen HAFM, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karunapema P, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim S, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krueger H, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Kyu HH, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lan Q, Langan SM, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Lind M, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, El Razek MMA, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mapoma CC, Margolis DJ, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensink GBM, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, de la Cruz Monis J, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mueller UO, Murdoch ME, Murimira B, Murray J, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Neal B, Nejjari C, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ngalesoni FN, Nguhiu P, Nguyen G, Le Nguyen Q, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolte S, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osborne RH, Ota E, Owolabi MO, PA M, Park EK, Park HY, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patel V, Caicedo AJP, Patil ST, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Ranganathan K, Rao PC, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Blancas MJR, Roba HS, Roberts B, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy N, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Santos JV, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Sawyer SM, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford K, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Levy TS, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shey M, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Sligar A, Soneji S, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stahl HC, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stöckl H, Stranges S, Strong M, Sun J, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tarawneh MR, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Tedla BA, Tefera W, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Shifa GT, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Donkelaar A, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Veerman JL, Venketasubramanian N, Verma RK, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Volkow P, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Wanga V, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wolfe I, Won S, Woolf AD, Workie SB, Wubshet M, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zapata T, Zegeye EA, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Murray CJL. Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1813-1850. [PMID: 27665228 PMCID: PMC5055583 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31467-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 250] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2016] [Revised: 08/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). METHODS We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. FINDINGS In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. INTERPRETATION GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, Anderson HR, Bhutta ZA, Biryukov S, Brauer M, Burnett R, Cercy K, Charlson FJ, Cohen AJ, Dandona L, Estep K, Ferrari AJ, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Gething PW, Godwin WW, Griswold M, Hay SI, Kinfu Y, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lim SS, Liu PY, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Marczak L, Mensah GA, Mokdad AH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Naghavi M, Neal B, Reitsma MB, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sur PJ, Vos T, Wagner JA, Wang H, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Aasvang GM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Abraham B, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akinyemiju TF, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Batis C, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Broday DM, Brugha TS, Brunekreef B, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Coates MM, Colquhoun SM, Manzano AGC, Cooper LT, Cooperrider K, Cornaby L, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davis AC, Davletov K, de Castro EF, De la Cruz-Góngora V, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Gobbo LC, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribew A, Jarlais DCD, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Fleming T, Foigt N, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Goenka S, Gomez-Cabrera MC, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Guillemin F, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernández-Llanes NF, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hutchings SJ, Huybrechts I, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Ileanu BV, Inoue M, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jansen HAFM, Jassal SK, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Kromhout H, Krueger H, Ku T, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Li X, Li Y, Liang J, Liu S, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, MacIntyre M, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manamo WAA, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehari A, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensink GBM, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Mumford JE, Murthy GVS, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Nangia V, Nassiri N, Newton JN, Ng M, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olsen H, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Orozco R, Ortiz A, Ota E, PA M, Pana A, Park EK, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Caicedo AJP, Patil ST, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Polinder S, Pond CD, Pope CA, Pope D, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranganathan K, Rao P, García CAR, Refaat AH, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reinig N, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Rivera JA, Roba HS, Rodriguez A, Rodriguez-Ramirez S, Rojas-Rueda D, Roman Y, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Riera L, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Sandar L, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Levy TS, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Slepak EL, Soljak M, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stöckl H, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Takahashi K, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye BW, Taylor HR, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Thakur JS, Thomas BA, Thomas ML, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tobollik M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimparis N, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Donkelaar A, van Os J, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Veerman JL, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wang JL, Wang L, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Woolf AD, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zhu J, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1659-1724. [PMID: 27733284 PMCID: PMC5388856 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31679-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2646] [Impact Index Per Article: 330.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2016] [Revised: 08/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/19/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Wang H, Naghavi M, Allen C, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fraser MS, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Huynh C, Johnson CO, Kassebaum NJ, Kinfu Y, Kulikoff XR, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lind M, Lozano R, Marquez N, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Silpakit N, Sligar A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Thomas BA, Troeger C, VanderZanden A, Vollset SE, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Wolock T, Zoeckler L, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abreu DMX, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adelekan AL, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Lami FHA, Alabed S, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Alasfoor D, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amegah AK, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Aregay AF, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Belay HA, Bell B, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biroscak BJ, Biryukov S, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Bohensky MA, Borschmann R, Bose D, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brayne CEG, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Brown A, Brown J, Brugha TS, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cercy K, Cerda J, Chen W, Chew A, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortinovis M, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damsere-Derry J, Danawi H, Dandona R, Daoud F, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Davitoiu DV, de Castro EF, de Jager P, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, dos Santos KPB, Dossou E, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ellenbogen RG, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faghmous IDA, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Flaxman A, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gall SL, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Ganguly P, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Ghoshal AG, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Gilmour S, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glaser E, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Greaves F, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Heckbert SR, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hilderink HBM, Hoek HW, Hogg RS, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Hu G, Huang C, Huang H, Huiart L, Husseini A, Huybrechts I, Huynh G, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Iyer VJ, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jonas JB, Joshi TK, Kabir Z, Kamal R, Kan H, Kant S, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karletsos D, Karthikeyan G, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissela BM, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krog NH, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leigh J, Levi M, Li Y, Lindsay MP, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Machado VMP, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Razek HMAE, Magdy M, Razek AE, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manamo WAA, Mandisarisa J, Mangalam S, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Martin GR, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montero P, Montico M, Montine TJ, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Morgan K, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naik N, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nash D, Nejjari C, Neupane S, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norman PE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Ogbo FA, Ohkubo T, Ojelabi FA, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osman M, Ota E, Ozdemir R, PA M, Pain A, Pandian JD, Pant PR, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pearce N, Pedro JM, Stokic LP, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Platts-Mills JA, Polinder S, Pope CA, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Qorbani M, Quame-Amaglo J, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajavi Z, Rajsic S, Raju M, Rakovac I, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rangaswamy T, Rao P, Rao SR, Refaat AH, Rehm J, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Blancas MJR, Roberts B, Roca A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy NK, Ruhago GM, Sagar R, Saha S, Sahathevan R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sanchez-Riera L, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schaub MP, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shen Z, Shepard DS, Sheth KN, Shetty BP, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soriano JB, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Have MT, Terkawi AS, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tirschwell DL, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Traebert J, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uthman OA, Dingenen RV, van Donkelaar A, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Vijayakumar L, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Wagner JA, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, White RA, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Wong JQ, Woolf AD, Xavier D, Xiao Q, Xu G, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Younis MZ, Yu S, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zannad F, Zavala DE, Zeeb H, Zeleke BM, Zhang H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1459-1544. [PMID: 27733281 PMCID: PMC5388903 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31012-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4031] [Impact Index Per Article: 503.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. METHODS We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. INTERPRETATION At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kassebaum NJ, Arora M, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Brown J, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cornaby L, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Johnson CO, Kemmer L, Khalil IA, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lozano R, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Rankin Z, Reinig N, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Smith A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Troeger C, Truelsen T, VanderZanden A, Wagner JA, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Zhou M, Zoeckler L, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agarwal SK, Ahmed MB, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Anderson GM, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Bayou TA, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Choudhury L, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Gobbo LCD, Derrett S, Jarlais DCD, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Ellenbogen RG, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gabbe B, Gankpé FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman DJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Huang H, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Inoue M, Jacobsen KH, Jauregui A, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kajungu DK, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lavados PM, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Li Y, Li Y, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Razek HMAE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Marcenes W, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Mumford JE, Murdoch ME, Murthy GVS, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolla JM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Oyekale AS, PA M, Park EK, Parsaeian M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai D, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Ranganathan K, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Reynolds A, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Skogen JC, Soljak M, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Gool CH, van Os J, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1603-1658. [PMID: 27733283 PMCID: PMC5388857 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31460-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1387] [Impact Index Per Article: 173.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2016] [Revised: 08/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Mokdad AH, Forouzanfar MH, Daoud F, El Bcheraoui C, Moradi-Lakeh M, Khalil I, Afshin A, Tuffaha M, Charara R, Barber RM, Wagner J, Cercy K, Kravitz H, Coates MM, Robinson M, Estep K, Steiner C, Jaber S, Mokdad AA, O'Rourke KF, Chew A, Kim P, El Razek MMA, Abdalla S, Abd-Allah F, Abraham JP, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Al-Nehmi AA, Akanda AS, Al Ahmadi H, Al Khabouri MJ, Al Lami FH, Al Rayess ZA, Alasfoor D, AlBuhairan FS, Aldhahri SF, Alghnam S, Alhabib S, Al-Hamad N, Ali R, Ali SD, Alkhateeb M, AlMazroa MA, Alomari MA, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Al-Sheyab N, Alsowaidi S, Al-Thani M, Altirkawi KA, Amare AT, Amini H, Ammar W, Anwari P, Asayesh H, Asghar R, Assabri AM, Assadi R, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bakfalouni T, Basulaiman MO, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Bhakta AR, Bhutta ZA, Bin Abdulhak AA, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Danawi H, Das J, Deribew A, Ding EL, Durrani AM, Elshrek Y, Ibrahim ME, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Faghmous IAD, Farzadfar F, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Filip I, Fischer F, Gankpé FG, Ginawi I, Gishu MD, Gupta R, Habash RM, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hamadeh RR, Hamdouni H, Hamidi S, Harb HL, Hassanvand MS, Hedayati MT, Heydarpour P, Hsairi M, Husseini A, Jahanmehr N, Jha V, Jonas JB, Karam NE, Kasaeian A, Kassa NA, Kaul A, Khader Y, Khalifa SEA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khoja T, Khosravi A, Kinfu Y, Defo BK, Balaji AL, Lunevicius R, Obermeyer CM, Malekzadeh R, Mansourian M, Marcenes W, Farid HM, Mehari A, Mehio-Sibai A, Memish ZA, Mensah GA, Mohammad KA, Nahas Z, Nasher JT, Nawaz H, Nejjari C, Nisar MI, Omer SB, Parsaeian M, Peprah EK, Pervaiz A, Pourmalek F, Qato DM, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rana SM, Rao SR, Refaat AH, Resnikoff S, Roshandel G, Saade G, Saeedi MY, Sahraian MA, Saleh S, Sanchez-Riera L, Satpathy M, Sepanlou SG, Setegn T, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Sheikhbahaei S, Shishani K, Sliwa K, Tavakkoli M, Terkawi AS, Uthman OA, Westerman R, Younis MZ, El Sayed Zaki M, Zannad F, Roth GA, Wang H, Naghavi M, Vos T, Al Rabeeah AA, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet Glob Health 2016; 4:e704-13. [PMID: 27568068 PMCID: PMC6660972 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(16)30168-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 123] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2016] [Revised: 06/29/2016] [Accepted: 07/11/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Background The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | | | - Farah Daoud
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Charbel El Bcheraoui
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Community Medicine, Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ibrahim Khalil
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ashkan Afshin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marwa Tuffaha
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Raghid Charara
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ryan M Barber
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Joseph Wagner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kelly Cercy
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Hannah Kravitz
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew M Coates
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Margaret Robinson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kara Estep
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Caitlyn Steiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sara Jaber
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ali A Mokdad
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA
| | - Kevin F O'Rourke
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Adrienne Chew
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Pauline Kim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Safa Abdalla
- Sudanese Public Health Consultancy Group, Solihull, UK
| | | | - Jerry P Abraham
- Family Medicine Residency Program at California Hospital, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA; Institute for Global Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar, Doha, Qatar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Zulfa A Al Rayess
- The Saudi Center for Evidence Based Healthcare, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Fadia S AlBuhairan
- King Abdullah Specialized Children's Hospital, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Saleh F Aldhahri
- King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Suliman Alghnam
- King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Samia Alhabib
- King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz University Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | - Syed Danish Ali
- University of London, London, UK; Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Oxford, UK
| | - Mohammad Alkhateeb
- Pediatric Department, King Khalid University Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Mahmoud A Alomari
- Division of Physical Therapy, Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, Irbid, Jordan
| | - Rajaa Al-Raddadi
- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | - Shirina Alsowaidi
- Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | | | | | - Azmeraw T Amare
- Discipline of Psychiatry, School of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Heresh Amini
- Environmental Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran; Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | | | | | - Hamid Asayesh
- Department of Medical Emergency, School of Paramedic, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
| | - Rana Asghar
- South Asian Public Health Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Ali M Assabri
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - Reza Assadi
- Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Umar Bacha
- School of Health Sciences, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Alaa Badawi
- Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | | | | | - Neeraj Bedi
- College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | - Amit R Bhakta
- National Institute of Mental Health, Montgomery Village, MD, USA
| | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Karachi, Pakistan; Centre for Global Child Health, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | - Soufiane Boufous
- Transport and Road Safety (TARS) Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | | | - Jai Das
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Amare Deribew
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford, UK; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Eric L Ding
- Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Yousef Elshrek
- Food Science Department, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tripoli, Tripoli, Libya
| | - Mohamed E Ibrahim
- Cardiovascular Diseases Control and Prevention Program, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Babak Eshrati
- Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran; Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
| | - Alireza Esteghamati
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Andrea B Feigl
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Irina Filip
- Kaiser Permanente Psychiatry Residency Program, Fontana, CA, USA
| | | | | | - Ibrahim Ginawi
- College of Medicine, University of Hail, Hail, Saudi Arabia
| | - Melkamu Dedefo Gishu
- Haramaya University, Dira Dawa, Ethiopia; Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Rahul Gupta
- West Virginia Bureau for Public Health, Charleston, WV, USA
| | - Rami M Habash
- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nima Hafezi-Nejad
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Hayet Hamdouni
- Direction des Soins de Santé de Base, Ministry of Health, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Samer Hamidi
- Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | | | - Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand
- Center for Air Pollution Research, Institute for Environmental Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad T Hedayati
- Department of Medical Mycology and Parasitology, School of Medicine, Mazndaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Pouria Heydarpour
- Multiple Sclerosis Research Center, Neuroscience Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Nader Jahanmehr
- School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Vivekanand Jha
- The George Institute for Global Health India, University of Oxford, New Delhi, India
| | - Jost B Jonas
- Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany
| | | | - Amir Kasaeian
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Anil Kaul
- Oklahoma State University Center for Health Sciences, Tulsa, OK, USA
| | - Yousef Khader
- Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | | | - Ejaz A Khan
- Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Gulfaraz Khan
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | - Tawfik Khoja
- Health Ministers' Council for Cooperation Council States, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ardeshir Khosravi
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yohannes Kinfu
- Centre for Research & Action in Public Health, Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Barthelemy Kuate Defo
- Department of Demography and Public Health Research Institute, University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | | | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- Aintree University Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK; School of Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer
- Center for Research on Population and Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Morteza Mansourian
- Department of Health Education and Promotion, School of Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Alem Mehari
- Howard University College of Medicine, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Abla Mehio-Sibai
- Department of Epidemiology & Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Ziad A Memish
- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - George A Mensah
- Center for Translation Research and Implementation Science, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Montgomery Village, MD, USA
| | | | - Ziad Nahas
- Medical Center, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | | | - Haseeb Nawaz
- Southern Illinois University, Springfield, IL, USA
| | | | | | | | - Mahboubeh Parsaeian
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Dima M Qato
- College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Mostafa Qorbani
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Amir Radfar
- A T Still University of Health Sciences, Kirksville, MO, USA
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Rajesh K Rai
- Society for Health and Demographic Surveillance, Suri, India
| | - Saleem M Rana
- Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan; Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Sowmya R Rao
- Department of Surgery, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Amany H Refaat
- Walden University, Minneapolis, MN, USA; Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt
| | - Serge Resnikoff
- Brien Holden Vision Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; International Health and Development, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Georges Saade
- Lebanese University, Beirut, Lebanon; Bellevue Medical Center, Mansourieh El Metn, Lebanon
| | | | - Mohammad Ali Sahraian
- Multiple Sclerosis Research Center, Neuroscience Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Shadi Saleh
- Department of Health Management and Policy, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Lidia Sanchez-Riera
- Institut d'Investigacio Biomedica de Bellvitge (IDIBELL), L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Amira Shaheen
- Department of Public Health, An-Najah University, Nablus, Palestine
| | | | - Sara Sheikhbahaei
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Karen Sliwa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | | | - Abdullah S Terkawi
- Department of Anesthesiology, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | | | - Ronny Westerman
- Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany; German National Cohort Consortium, Heidelberg, Germany
| | | | | | - Faiez Zannad
- Clinical Investigation Centre INSERM, Université de Lorraine, Vandoeuvre les Nancy, France; CHU de Nancy, Vandoeuvre les Nancy, France
| | - Gregory A Roth
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Haidong Wang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Alan D Lopez
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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Wang H, Wolock TM, Carter A, Nguyen G, Kyu HH, Gakidou E, Hay SI, Mills EJ, Trickey A, Msemburi W, Coates MM, Mooney MD, Fraser MS, Sligar A, Salomon J, Larson HJ, Friedman J, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbas KM, Razek MMAE, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adelekan AL, Adofo K, Adou AK, Ajala ON, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Lami FHA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Alasfoor D, Aldhahri SFS, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Mohammad R, Al-Raddadi S, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atique S, Atkins LS, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Bacha U, Badawi A, Barac A, Bärnighausen T, Basu A, Bayou TA, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhatia E, Bhutta ZA, 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JR, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Sawhney M, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Sigfusdottir ID, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soti DO, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Talongwa RT, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Tedla BA, Tekle T, Shifa GT, Temesgen AM, Terkawi AS, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thapa K, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimparis N, Tura AK, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, Venketasubramanian N, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wang L, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Wong JQ, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yu S, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zhang H, Zhao Y, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Zuhlke LJ, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet HIV 2016; 3:e361-e387. [PMID: 27470028 PMCID: PMC5056319 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(16)30087-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 405] [Impact Index Per Article: 50.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2016] [Revised: 06/09/2016] [Accepted: 06/17/2016] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. INTERPRETATION Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.
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Fitzmaurice C, Dicker D, Pain A, Hamavid H, Moradi-Lakeh M, MacIntyre MF, Allen C, Hansen G, Woodbrook R, Wolfe C, Hamadeh RR, Moore A, Werdecker A, Gessner BD, Te Ao B, McMahon B, Karimkhani C, Yu C, Cooke GS, Schwebel DC, Carpenter DO, Pereira DM, Nash D, Kazi DS, De Leo D, Plass D, Ukwaja KN, Thurston GD, Yun Jin K, Simard EP, Mills E, Park EK, Catalá-López F, deVeber G, Gotay C, Khan G, Hosgood HD, Santos IS, Leasher JL, Singh J, Leigh J, Jonas JB, Jonas J, Sanabria J, Beardsley J, Jacobsen KH, Takahashi K, Franklin RC, Ronfani L, Montico M, Naldi L, Tonelli M, Geleijnse J, Petzold M, Shrime MG, Younis M, Yonemoto N, Breitborde N, Yip P, Pourmalek F, Lotufo PA, Esteghamati A, Hankey GJ, Ali R, Lunevicius R, Malekzadeh R, Dellavalle R, Weintraub R, Lucas R, Hay R, Rojas-Rueda D, Westerman R, Sepanlou SG, Nolte S, Patten S, Weichenthal S, Abera SF, Fereshtehnejad SM, Shiue I, Driscoll T, Vasankari T, Alsharif U, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Vlassov VV, Marcenes WS, Mekonnen W, Melaku YA, Yano Y, Artaman A, Campos I, MacLachlan J, Mueller U, Kim D, Trillini M, Eshrati B, Williams HC, Shibuya K, Dandona R, Murthy K, Cowie B, Amare AT, Antonio CA, Castañeda-Orjuela C, van Gool CH, Violante F, Oh IH, Deribe K, Soreide K, Knibbs L, Kereselidze M, Green M, Cardenas R, Roy N, Tillmann T, Tillman T, Li Y, Krueger H, Monasta L, Dey S, Sheikhbahaei S, Hafezi-Nejad N, Kumar GA, Sreeramareddy CT, Dandona L, Wang H, Vollset SE, Mokdad A, Salomon JA, Lozano R, Vos T, Forouzanfar M, Lopez A, Murray C, Naghavi M. The Global Burden of Cancer 2013. JAMA Oncol 2016; 1:505-27. [PMID: 26181261 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2015.0735] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1962] [Impact Index Per Article: 245.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies. OBJECTIVE To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013. EVIDENCE REVIEW The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. FINDINGS In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100 000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10% in 12 of 188 countries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Christina Fitzmaurice
- Division of Hematology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle2Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Daniel Dicker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Amanda Pain
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hannah Hamavid
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle3Gastrointestinal and Liver Disease Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Michael F MacIntyre
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Christine Allen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Gillian Hansen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Rachel Woodbrook
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Andrea Werdecker
- Institute of Medical Sociology and Social Medicine, Marburg, Germany
| | | | - Braden Te Ao
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Psychosocial Studies, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Brian McMahon
- Liver Disease and Hepatitis Program, Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, Anchorage, Alaska
| | - Chante Karimkhani
- College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York, New York
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | | | - David C Schwebel
- Department of Psychology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama
| | - David O Carpenter
- Institute for Health and the Environment, University at Albany, Rensselaer, New York
| | - David M Pereira
- Laboratório de Farmacognosia, Departamento de Ciências Químicas, Faculdade de Farmácia, University do Porto, REQUIMTE/LAQV, Porto, Portugal
| | - Denis Nash
- School of Public Health, Hunter College Campus, City University of New York, New York
| | | | | | - Dietrich Plass
- Federal Environment Agency Section on Exposure Assessment and Environmental Health Indicators, Berlin, Germany
| | - Kingsley N Ukwaja
- Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - George D Thurston
- Nelson Institute of Environmental Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, Tuxedo, New York
| | - Kim Yun Jin
- Faculty of Chinese Medicine, Southern University College, Johor, Malaysia
| | - Edgar P Simard
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | | | - Eun-Kee Park
- Department of Medical Humanities and Social Medicine, Kosin University College of Medicine, Busan, South Korea
| | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency (AEMPS), Ministry of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Carolyn Gotay
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Gulfaraz Khan
- Department of Microbiology & Immunology, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | | | - Itamar S Santos
- Centre for Clinical and Epidemiological Research, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Jasvinder Singh
- Division of Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama
| | | | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | | | - Juan Sanabria
- Department of Surgery, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio38Nutrition and Preventive Medicine, Chicago Medical School at Cancer Treatment Centers of America, Rosalind Franklin University, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Justin Beardsley
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Kathryn H Jacobsen
- Department of Global and Community Health, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
| | - Ken Takahashi
- Department of Environmental Epidemiology, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan
| | - Richard C Franklin
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
| | - Luca Ronfani
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
| | - Marcella Montico
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
| | - Luigi Naldi
- Azienda Ospedaliera papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy
| | | | - Johanna Geleijnse
- Division of Human Nutrition, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Max Petzold
- Centre for Applied Biostatistics, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden48School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | | | | | | | | | - Paul Yip
- The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Farshad Pourmalek
- Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Paulo A Lotufo
- Centre for Clinical and Epidemiological Research, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Alireza Esteghamati
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Graeme J Hankey
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, School of Medicine and Pharmacology, Perth, Australia
| | - Raghib Ali
- Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, England
| | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- Department of Neuropsychopharmacology, Aintree University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, England
| | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Robert Dellavalle
- Veterans Affairs Eastern Colorado Health Care System, Denver61Department of Dermatology, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Denver
| | - Robert Weintraub
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia63Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Robyn Lucas
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Roderick Hay
- International Foundation for Dermatology, London, England
| | - David Rojas-Rueda
- Centre of Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Shariati Hospital, Tehran, Iran
| | - Sandra Nolte
- Charité University Medicine Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Scott Patten
- Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | | | | | | | - Ivy Shiue
- Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, England75University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Tim Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Tommi Vasankari
- UKK Institute for Health Promotion Research, Tampere, Finland
| | | | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Vasiliy V Vlassov
- National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
| | - W S Marcenes
- Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of London, London, England
| | | | - Yohannes Adama Melaku
- College of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | - Yuichiro Yano
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois
| | | | | | - Jennifer MacLachlan
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory (VIDRL), The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, WHO Collaborating Centre for Viral Hepatitis, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Daniel Kim
- Department of Health Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Matias Trillini
- Mario Negri Institute for pharmacological Research, Ranica, Italy
| | - Babak Eshrati
- Arak University of Medical Sciences and Health Affairs, Arak, Iran
| | | | | | - Rakhi Dandona
- Public Health Foundation of India, National Capital Region, India
| | - Kinnari Murthy
- Public Health Foundation of India, National Capital Region, India
| | - Benjamin Cowie
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory (VIDRL), The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, WHO Collaborating Centre for Viral Hepatitis, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Azmeraw T Amare
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | | | | | - Coen H van Gool
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Francesco Violante
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - In-Hwan Oh
- Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Kedede Deribe
- School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia100Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Brighton, England
| | - Kjetil Soreide
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway102University of Bergen, Stavanger, Norway
| | - Luke Knibbs
- Department of Clinical Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Maia Kereselidze
- National Centre for Diseases Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | - Mark Green
- University of Sheffield, Sheffield, England
| | | | - Nobhojit Roy
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Mumbai, India
| | | | | | - Yongmei Li
- Genentech Inc, San Francisco, California
| | - Hans Krueger
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
| | - Subhojit Dey
- Indian Institute of Public Health, National Capital Region, India
| | - Sara Sheikhbahaei
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Nima Hafezi-Nejad
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, National Capital Region, India
| | | | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle93Public Health Foundation of India, National Capital Region, India
| | - Haidong Wang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway113Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway
| | - Ali Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Rafael Lozano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle115National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Alan Lopez
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Christopher Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
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Forouzanfar MH, Alexander L, Anderson HR, Bachman VF, Biryukov S, Brauer M, Burnett R, Casey D, Coates MM, Cohen A, Delwiche K, Estep K, Frostad JJ, Astha KC, Kyu HH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Ng M, Slepak EL, Thomas BA, Wagner J, Aasvang GM, Abbafati C, Abbasoglu Ozgoren A, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abraham B, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburto TC, Achoki T, Adelekan A, Adofo K, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Al Khabouri MJ, Al Lami FH, Alam SS, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Ali MK, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen PJ, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Ameli O, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Argeseanu Cunningham S, Arnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Atkinson C, Avila MA, Awuah B, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Bakfalouni T, Balakrishnan K, Balalla S, Balu RK, Banerjee A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez T, Basto-Abreu AC, Basu A, Basu S, Basulaiman MO, Batis Ruvalcaba C, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Benzian H, Bernabé E, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bin Abdulhak AA, Blore JD, Blyth FM, Bohensky MA, Bora Başara B, Borges G, Bornstein NM, Bose D, Boufous S, Bourne RR, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJ, Brenner H, Briggs ADM, Broday DM, Brooks PM, Bruce NG, Brugha TS, Brunekreef B, Buchbinder R, Bui LN, Bukhman G, Bulloch AG, Burch M, Burney PGJ, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Cantoral AJ, Caravanos J, Cárdenas R, Cardis E, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Çavlin A, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chen W, Chen Z, Chiang PP, Chimed-Ochir O, Chowdhury R, Christophi CA, Chuang TW, Chugh SS, Cirillo M, Claßen TKD, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Contreras AG, Cooper C, Cooperrider K, Cooper LT, Coresh J, Courville KJ, Criqui MH, Cuevas-Nasu L, Damsere-Derry J, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Davis A, Davitoiu DV, Dayama A, de Castro EF, De la Cruz-Góngora V, De Leo D, de Lima G, Degenhardt L, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, deVeber GA, Devries KM, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Durrani AM, Ebel BE, Ellenbogen RG, Elshrek YM, Endres M, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farzadfar F, Fay DFJ, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Ferrari AJ, Ferri CP, Flaxman AD, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Paleo UF, Franklin RC, Gabbe B, Gaffikin L, Gakidou E, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpé FG, Gansevoort RT, García-Guerra FA, Gasana E, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething P, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goginashvili K, Gomez Dantes H, Gona P, Gonzalez de Cosio T, González-Castell D, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Guerrant RL, Gugnani HC, Guillemin F, Gunnell D, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Hagstromer M, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haregu TN, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernandez L, Heuton KR, Heydarpour P, Hijar M, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hornberger JC, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Hu H, Huang C, Huang JJ, Hubbell BJ, Huiart L, Husseini A, Iannarone ML, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Ikeda N, Innos K, Inoue M, Islami F, Ismayilova S, Jacobsen KH, Jansen HA, Jarvis DL, Jassal SK, Jauregui A, Jayaraman S, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang F, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Kany Roseline SS, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Karthikeyan G, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khalifa SEAH, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khonelidze I, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim S, Kim Y, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kissela BM, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kose MR, Kosen S, Kraemer A, Kravchenko M, Krishnaswami S, Kromhout H, Ku T, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lai T, Lakshmana Balaji A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Lavados PM, Lawrynowicz AE, Leasher JL, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lindsay MP, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, London SJ, Lopez N, Lortet-Tieulent J, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Ma J, Ma S, Machado VMP, MacIntyre MF, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdi AA, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Mangalam S, Mapoma CC, Marape M, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Margono C, Marks GB, Martin RV, Marzan MB, Mashal MT, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, McKay AC, McKee M, McLain A, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen W, Melaku YA, Meltzer M, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Misganaw A, Mishra S, Mohamed Ibrahim N, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Moore AR, Morawska L, Mori R, Moschandreas J, Moturi WN, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Mullany EC, Murthy KS, Naghavi M, Nahas Z, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nand D, Nangia V, Narayan KMV, Nash D, Neal B, Nejjari C, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ngalesoni FN, Ngirabega JDD, Nguyen G, Nguyen NT, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Nisar MI, Nogueira JR, Nolla JM, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olusanya BO, Omer SB, Opio JN, Orozco R, Pagcatipunan RS, Pain AW, Pandian JD, Panelo CIA, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Paternina Caicedo AJ, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pedraza LS, Pedroza A, Pejin Stokic L, Pekericli A, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Perry SAL, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Phua HP, Plass D, Poenaru D, Polanczyk GV, Polinder S, Pond CD, Pope CA, Pope D, Popova S, Pourmalek F, Powles J, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Qato DM, Quezada AD, Quistberg DAA, Racapé L, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman SU, Raju M, Rakovac I, Rana SM, Rao M, Razavi H, Reddy KS, Refaat AH, Rehm J, Remuzzi G, Ribeiro AL, Riccio PM, Richardson L, Riederer A, Robinson M, Roca A, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Romieu I, Ronfani L, Room R, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Rushton L, Sabin N, Sacco RL, Saha S, Sahathevan R, Sahraian MA, Salomon JA, Salvo D, Sampson UK, Sanabria JR, Sanchez LM, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Sanchez-Riera L, Sandar L, Santos IS, Sapkota A, Satpathy M, Saunders JE, Sawhney M, Saylan MI, Scarborough P, Schmidt JC, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shahraz S, Levy TS, Shangguan S, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soljak M, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stapelberg NJC, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stephens N, Stöckl H, Straif K, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tanner M, Tavakkoli M, Te Ao BJ, Teixeira CM, Téllez Rojo MM, Terkawi AS, Texcalac-Sangrador JL, Thackway SV, Thomson B, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobollik M, Tonelli M, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Toyoshima H, Traebert J, Tran BX, Trasande L, Trillini M, Trujillo U, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Uzun SB, van de Vijver S, Van Dingenen R, van Gool CH, van Os J, Varakin YY, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Vavilala MS, Veerman LJ, Velasquez-Melendez G, Venketasubramanian N, Vijayakumar L, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wallin MT, Wan X, Wang H, Wang J, Wang L, Wang W, Wang Y, Warouw TS, Watts CH, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Wessells KR, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Williams TN, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Wong JQ, Woolf AD, Wright JL, Wurtz B, Xu G, Yan LL, Yang G, Yano Y, Ye P, Yenesew M, Yentür GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Younoussi Z, Yu C, Zaki ME, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zhu S, Zou X, Zunt JR, Lopez AD, Vos T, Murray CJ. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2015; 386:2287-323. [PMID: 26364544 PMCID: PMC4685753 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(15)00128-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1719] [Impact Index Per Article: 191.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. METHODS Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. FINDINGS All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. INTERPRETATION Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Haagsma JA, Graetz N, Bolliger I, Naghavi M, Higashi H, Mullany EC, Abera SF, Abraham JP, Adofo K, Alsharif U, Ameh EA, Ammar W, Antonio CAT, Barrero LH, Bekele T, Bose D, Brazinova A, Catalá-López F, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Derrett S, Dharmaratne SD, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Petrovich Ermakov S, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Franklin RC, Gabbe B, Gosselin RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hamadeh RR, Hijar M, Hu G, Jayaraman SP, Jiang G, Khader YS, Khan EA, Krishnaswami S, Kulkarni C, Lecky FE, Leung R, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Majdan M, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos R, Meaney PA, Mekonnen W, Miller TR, Mock CN, Norman RE, Orozco R, Polinder S, Pourmalek F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Refaat A, Rojas-Rueda D, Roy N, Schwebel DC, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Skirbekk V, Søreide K, Soshnikov S, Stein DJ, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Temesgen AM, Tenkorang EY, Theadom AM, Tran BX, Vasankari TJ, Vavilala MS, Vlassov VV, Woldeyohannes SM, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Murray CJL, Vos T. The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013. Inj Prev 2015; 22:3-18. [PMID: 26635210 PMCID: PMC4752630 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2015-041616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 779] [Impact Index Per Article: 86.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2015] [Accepted: 07/30/2015] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juanita A Haagsma
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA ErasmusMC, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Nicholas Graetz
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Ian Bolliger
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Hideki Higashi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Erin C Mullany
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Semaw Ferede Abera
- Mekelle University, College of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Mekelle, Tigray, Ethiopia Kilte Awlaelo-Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Mekelle, Tigray, Ethiopia
| | - Jerry Puthenpurakal Abraham
- University of Southern California (USC) Family Medicine Residency Program at California Hospital, a Dignity Health member, Los Angeles, California, USA Harvard School of Public Health/Harvard Institute for Global Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Koranteng Adofo
- Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ashanti, Ghana
| | | | | | | | - Carl Abelardo T Antonio
- Department of Health Policy and Administration, College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
| | - Lope H Barrero
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogota, Cundinamarca, Colombia
| | - Tolesa Bekele
- Madawalabu University, Ethiopia, Bale Goba, Oromia, Ethiopia
| | | | - Alexandra Brazinova
- Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia
| | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency (AEMPS), Ministry of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Paul I Dargan
- Guy's and St. Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Diego De Leo
- Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Sarah Derrett
- Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand School of Public Health, College of Health, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | | | - Tim R Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Leilei Duan
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, China
| | - Sergey Petrovich Ermakov
- The Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrine and Metabolic Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Valery L Feigin
- National Institute for Stroke and Applied Neurosciences, AUT University, Auckland, New Zealand
| | | | | | - Richard A Gosselin
- University of California in San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Nima Hafezi-Nejad
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Martha Hijar
- Fundacion Entornos AC, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Guoqing Hu
- Central South University, School of Public Health, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | | | - Guohong Jiang
- Tianjin Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China
| | | | - Ejaz Ahmad Khan
- Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Punjab, Pakistan Expanded Programme on Immunization, Islamabad, Punjab, Pakistan
| | | | - Chanda Kulkarni
- Rajrajeswari Medical College & Hospital, Bangalore, Karnataka, India
| | - Fiona E Lecky
- EMRiS, Health Services Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, UK
| | | | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- Aintree University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK School of Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | | | - Marek Majdan
- Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Department of Public Health, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia
| | | | - Richard Matzopoulos
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Peter A Meaney
- Pereleman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA Children's Hospital of Philadelphia
| | | | - Ted R Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland, USA Curtin University Centre for Population Health, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | | | - Rosana E Norman
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Ricardo Orozco
- National Institute of Psychiatry, Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico
| | | | - Farshad Pourmalek
- University of British Columbia, School of Population and Public Health, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - David Rojas-Rueda
- Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Nobhojit Roy
- BARC Hospital, HBNI University, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Sergey Soshnikov
- Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation was founded in 1999 by the order of Ministry of Health of Russia, Moscow, Russia
| | - Dan J Stein
- University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Province, South Africa MRC Unit on Anxiety & Stress Disorders, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
| | | | - Karen M Tabb
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, USA
| | | | | | | | - Bach Xuan Tran
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | | | | | | | - Paul Yip
- The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodaira, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan, Hubei, China Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | | | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Murray CJL, Barber RM, Foreman KJ, Abbasoglu Ozgoren A, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Alam SS, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almazroa MA, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson HR, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsic Arsenijevic VS, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Avila MA, Awuah B, Bachman VF, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barker-Collo SL, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Basulaiman MO, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bekele T, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Bernabé E, Bertozzi-Villa A, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Biryukov S, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Blyth FM, Bohensky MA, Bolliger IW, Bora Başara B, Bornstein NM, Bose D, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Boyers LN, Brainin M, Brayne CE, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briggs AD, Brooks PM, Brown JC, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Budke CM, Bulchis A, Bulloch AG, Campos-Nonato IR, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Çavlin A, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chen W, Chiang PP, Chimed-Ochir O, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christophi CA, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Coffeng LE, Coggeshall MS, Colistro V, Colquhoun SM, Cooke GS, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Coppola LM, Cortinovis M, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dansereau E, Dargan PI, Davey G, Davis A, Davitoiu DV, Dayama A, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Diaz-Torné C, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Duber HC, Ebel BE, Edmond KM, Elshrek YM, Endres M, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farzadfar F, Fay DF, Feigin VL, Felson DT, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Forouzanfar MH, Fowkes FGR, Paleo UF, Franklin RC, Fürst T, Gabbe B, Gaffikin L, Gankpé FG, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething P, Gibney KB, Giroud M, Giussani G, Gomez Dantes H, Gona P, González-Medina D, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Haagsma J, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamavid H, Hammami M, Hancock J, Hankey GJ, Hansen GM, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hay RJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Heuton KR, Heydarpour P, Higashi H, Hijar M, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hosgood HD, Hossain M, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang C, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Huynh C, Iannarone ML, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jarvis DL, Jassal SK, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karthikeyan G, Kassebaum NJ, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khalifa SEA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim S, Kim Y, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Krishnaswami S, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kyu HH, Lai T, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Levitz CE, Li B, Li Y, Li Y, Lim SS, Lind M, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lofgren KT, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lortet-Tieulent J, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Macintyre MF, Mackay MT, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Margono C, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Mashal MT, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, Mcgill NW, Mcgrath JJ, Mckee M, Mclain A, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen W, Melaku YA, Meltzer M, Memish ZA, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohamed Ibrahim N, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Montine TJ, Mooney MD, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moran AE, Mori R, Moschandreas J, Moturi WN, Moyer ML, Mozaffarian D, Msemburi WT, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Mullany EC, Murdoch ME, Murray J, Murthy KS, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nand D, Nangia V, Narayan KMV, Nejjari C, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen G, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Ohno SL, Olusanya BO, Opio JN, Ortblad K, Ortiz A, Pain AW, Pandian JD, Panelo CIA, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Phillips BK, Phillips DE, Piel FB, Plass D, Poenaru D, Polinder S, Pope D, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Pullan RL, Qato DM, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahman SU, Raju M, Rana SM, Razavi H, Reddy KS, Refaat A, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Richardson L, Richardus JH, Roberts DA, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rothstein DH, Rowley JT, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Saeedi MY, Saha S, Sahraian MA, Sampson UKA, Sanabria JR, Sandar L, Santos IS, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Scarborough P, Schneider IJ, Schöttker B, Schumacher AE, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serina PT, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shamah Levy T, Shangguan S, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh L, Skirbekk V, Slepak EL, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner C, Steiner TJ, Stevens A, Stewart A, Stovner LJ, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tanner M, Tavakkoli M, Taylor HR, Te Ao BJ, Tediosi F, Temesgen AM, Templin T, Ten Have M, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thomson B, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tonelli M, Topouzis F, Toyoshima H, Traebert J, Tran BX, Trillini M, Truelsen T, Tsilimbaris M, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uzun SB, Van Brakel WH, Van De Vijver S, van Gool CH, Van Os J, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wagner J, Waller SG, Wan X, Wang H, Wang J, Wang L, Warouw TS, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Wenzhi W, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Williams TN, Wolfe CD, Wolock TM, Woolf AD, Wulf S, Wurtz B, Xu G, Yan LL, Yano Y, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaki ME, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zonies D, Zou X, Salomon JA, Lopez AD, Vos T. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition. Lancet 2015; 386:2145-91. [PMID: 26321261 PMCID: PMC4673910 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(15)61340-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1284] [Impact Index Per Article: 142.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. METHODS We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. FINDINGS Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. INTERPRETATION Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Murray CJL, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, Lim SS, Wolock TM, Roberts DA, Dansereau EA, Graetz N, Barber RM, Brown JC, Wang H, Duber HC, Naghavi M, Dicker D, Dandona L, Salomon JA, Heuton KR, Foreman K, Phillips DE, Fleming TD, Flaxman AD, Phillips BK, Johnson EK, Coggeshall MS, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Achoki T, Adeyemo AO, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Akena D, Al Kahbouri MJ, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alcalá-Cerra G, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alla F, Allen PJ, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Basu S, Beardsley J, Bekele T, Bell ML, Bernabe E, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Abdulhak AB, Binagwaho A, Blore JD, Basara BB, Bose D, Brainin M, Breitborde N, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chuang TW, Colomar M, Cooper LT, Cooper C, Courville KJ, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Dandona R, Dayama A, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Pozo-Cruz B, Deribe K, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, Dharmaratne SD, Dilmen U, Ding EL, Driscoll TR, Durrani AM, Ellenbogen RG, Ermakov SP, Esteghamati A, Faraon EJA, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fijabi DO, Forouzanfar MH, Fra Paleo U, Gaffikin L, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpé FG, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gibney KB, Ginawi IAM, Glaser EL, Gona P, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hedayati MT, Pi IBH, Hoek HW, Hornberger JC, Hosgood HD, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Jacobsen KH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Kankindi I, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khalifa SEAH, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khonelidze I, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Knibbs L, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Defo BK, Kulkarni VS, Kulkarni C, Kumar K, Kumar RB, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lai T, Balaji AL, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung R, Li Y, Li Y, De Lima GMF, Lin HH, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lotufo PA, Machado VMP, Maclachlan JH, Magis-Rodriguez C, Majdan M, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Mashal MT, Mason-Jones AJ, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, Mckay AC, Meaney PA, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, Montico M, Moore AR, Mori R, Moturi WN, Mukaigawara M, Murthy KS, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Narayan KMV, Nash D, Nejjari C, Nelson RG, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Nowaseb V, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olusanya BO, Omer SB, Opio JN, Orisakwe OE, Pandian JD, Papachristou C, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Pourmalek F, Qato D, Quezada AD, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Ur Rahman S, Raju M, Rana SM, Razavi H, Reilly RQ, Remuzzi G, Richardus JH, Ronfani L, Roy N, Sabin N, Saeedi MY, Sahraian MA, Samonte GMJ, Sawhney M, Schneider IJC, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shiue I, Shivakoti R, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva AP, Simard EP, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Soshnikov SS, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou VK, Stroumpoulis K, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Towbin JA, Traebert J, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Uzun SB, Vallely AJ, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Waller S, Wallin MT, Wang L, Wang X, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Westerman R, White RA, Wilkinson JD, Williams TN, Woldeyohannes SM, Wong JQ, Xu G, Yang YC, Yano Y, Yentur GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis M, Yu C, Jin KY, El Sayed Zaki M, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zou XN, Lopez AD, Vos T. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2014; 384:1005-70. [PMID: 25059949 PMCID: PMC4202387 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60844-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 662] [Impact Index Per Article: 66.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - D Allen Roberts
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Nicholas Graetz
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ryan M Barber
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Haidong Wang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Herbert C Duber
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Daniel Dicker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Kyle R Heuton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Jerry P Abraham
- University of Texas School of Medicine San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA
| | | | | | - Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh
- Institute of Community and Public Health-Birzeti University, Ramallah, West Bank, Occupied Palestinian Territory
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Gabriel Alcalá-Cerra
- Grupo de Investigación en Ciencias de la Salud y Neurociencias (CISNEURO), Cartagena de Indias, Colombia
| | - Miguel Angel Alegretti
- Facultad de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Social, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | | | | | | | | | - Francois Alla
- School of Public Health, University of Lorraine, Nancy, France
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Azmeraw T Amare
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Hassan Amini
- Kurdistan Environmental Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Kurdistan, Iran
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Rana J Asghar
- South Asian Public Health Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Reza Assadi
- Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Lydia S Atkins
- Ministry of Health, Wellness, Human Services and Gender Relations, Castries, St. Lucia
| | - Alaa Badawi
- Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ashish Bhalla
- Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | | | | | | | - Jed D Blore
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency (AEMPS), Ministry of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | | | - Ting-Wu Chuang
- Department of Parasitology, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Center for International Tropical Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | | | | | - Cyrus Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | | | - Benjamin C Cowie
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, North Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | | | - Anand Dayama
- Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Muluken Dessalegn
- Africa Medical and Research Foundation in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | | | | | - Eric L Ding
- Harvard School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | | | | | | | - Sergey Petrovich Ermakov
- The Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
| | - Alireza Esteghamati
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | | | - Lynne Gaffikin
- Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Philimon Gona
- University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USA
| | - Atsushi Goto
- Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hebe N Gouda
- University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | | | | | - Rahul Gupta
- Kanawha Charleston Health Department, Charleston, WV, USA
| | - Nima Hafezi-Nejad
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Mouhanad Hammami
- Wayne County Department of Health and Human Services, Detroit, MI, USA
| | - Graeme J Hankey
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
| | | | - Josep Maria Haro
- Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, University of Barcelona, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | | | | | | | - Hans W Hoek
- Parnassia Psychiatric Institute, The Hague, Netherlands
| | | | | | | | - Damian G Hoy
- School of Population Health, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Public Health Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia
| | | | | | | | - Kaire Innos
- National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia
| | | | | | | | - Vivekanand Jha
- Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - Guohong Jiang
- Tianjin Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China
| | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim of the University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Knud Juel
- The National Institute of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | | | | | - André Karch
- Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hannover-Braunschweig site, Germany
| | | | - Anil Kaul
- Oklahoma State University, Tulsa, OK, USA
| | | | - Dhruv S Kazi
- University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | | | - Andre Pascal Kengne
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
| | - Andre Keren
- Cardiology, Hadassah Ein Kerem University Hospital, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Maia Kereselidze
- National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | | | | | | | - Young-Ho Khang
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Irma Khonelidze
- National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | | | | | - Luke Knibbs
- University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Yoshihiro Kokubo
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiologic Informatics, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, Japan
| | - S Kosen
- Center for Community Empowerment, Health Policy & Humanities, NIHRD, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | | | | | - Chanda Kulkarni
- Rajrajeshwari Medical College & Hospital, Bangalore, Karnataka, India
| | - Kaushalendra Kumar
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - Ravi B Kumar
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, Haryana, India
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Taavi Lai
- Fourth View Consulting, Tallinn, Estonia
| | | | - Hilton Lam
- Institute of Health Policy and Development Studies, National Institutes of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Qing Lan
- National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA
| | | | - Heidi J Larson
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Bloomsbury, UK
| | | | | | - James Leigh
- University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Mall Leinsalu
- National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Ricky Leung
- University at Albany, The State University of New York, Rensselaer, NY, USA
| | - Yichong Li
- Genentech, Inc, South San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Yongmei Li
- Genentech, Inc, South San Francisco, CA, USA
| | | | - Hsien-Ho Lin
- Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
| | | | - Shiwei Liu
- National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Liu
- Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Belinda K Lloyd
- Eastern Health Clinical School, VIC, Australia; Turning Point, Eastern Health, Fitzroy, VIC, Australia
| | | | | | | | | | - Marek Majdan
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia
| | | | | | | | - Joseph R Masci
- Elmhurst Hospital Center, Mount Sinai Services, Elmhurst, NY, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ted R Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton MD, USA; Centre for Population Health Research, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
| | | | | | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health-IRCCS "Burlo Garofolo," Trieste, Italy
| | - Marcella Montico
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health-IRCCS "Burlo Garofolo," Trieste, Italy
| | | | - Rintaro Mori
- National Center for Child Health and Development, Setagaya, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | | | | | - Aliya Naheed
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Kovin S Naidoo
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Luigi Naldi
- Azienda Ospedaliera papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy
| | | | | | - Denis Nash
- School of Public Health, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA
| | | | - Robert G Nelson
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Sudan Prasad Neupane
- Norwegian Center for Addiction Research (SERAF), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Charles R Newton
- Kenya Medical Research Institute Wellcome Trust Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Marie Ng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Sandra Nolte
- Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - John Nelson Opio
- Lira District Local Government, Lira Municipal Council, Northern Uganda, Uganda
| | - Orish Ebere Orisakwe
- Toxicology Unit, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Neil Pearce
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Bloomsbury, UK
| | - David M Pereira
- 3B's Research Group-Biomaterials, Biodegradables and Biomimetics, University of Minho, Headquarters of the European Institute of Excellence on Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine and ICVS/3B's-PT Government Associate Laboratory, Braga, Portugal
| | - Aslam Pervaiz
- Postgraduate Medical Institute, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
| | | | - Max Petzold
- Centre for Applied Biostatistics, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | - Dima Qato
- College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Amado D Quezada
- National Institute of Public Health of Mexico, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | | | | | | | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Saleem M Rana
- Department of Public Health, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - Homie Razavi
- Center for Disease Analysis, Louisville, CO, USA
| | | | - Giuseppe Remuzzi
- IRCCS Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Centro Anna Maria Astori, Bergamo, Italy
| | | | - Luca Ronfani
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health-IRCCS "Burlo Garofolo," Trieste, Italy
| | | | | | | | | | - Genesis May J Samonte
- National HIV/AIDS & STI Surveillance and Strategic Information Unit, National Epidemiology Center, Department of Health, Manila, National Capital Region, Philippines
| | | | | | | | - Soraya Seedat
- Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
| | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Sara Sheikhbahaei
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Ivy Shiue
- Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Rupak Shivakoti
- Center for Clinical Global Health Education, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | | | - Andrea P Silva
- Instituto Nacional de Epidemiología Dr Juan H Jara, Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Edgar P Simard
- Surveillance and Health Services Research Program American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | | | - Karen Sliwa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
| | | | - Sergey S Soshnikov
- Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
| | | | | | - Konstantinos Stroumpoulis
- KEELPNO (Centre for Disease Control, Greece, dispatched to "Alexandra" General Hospital of Athens), Athens, Greece
| | - Soumya Swaminathan
- National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Bryan L Sykes
- Department of Criminology, Law and Society (and Sociology), University of California-Irvine, Chicago, IL, USA
| | | | | | | | - Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi
- Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA; Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | - Jeffrey A Towbin
- Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | | | - Bach X Tran
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene
- Department of Population Sciences and Development, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | | | | | - Kingsley N Ukwaja
- Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki, Abakailiki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway; University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Stephen Waller
- Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Mitchell T Wallin
- VA Medical Center and Georgetown University Neurology Department, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Linhong Wang
- National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - XiaoRong Wang
- Shandong University Affiliated Jinan Central Hospital, Jinan, China
| | - Yanping Wang
- National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China
| | | | | | - Robert G Weintraub
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | - Richard A White
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Division of Infectious Disease Control and Department of Health Statistics, Division of Epidemiology, Oslo, Norway
| | | | | | | | - John Q Wong
- Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health, Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines
| | - Gelin Xu
- Nanjing University School of Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, China
| | - Yang C Yang
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Yuichiro Yano
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke, Tochigi, Japan
| | | | - Paul Yip
- The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodira, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | | | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Kim Yun Jin
- TCM MEDICAL TK SDN BHD, Nusajaya, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
| | | | - Yong Zhao
- Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yingfeng Zheng
- Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Zhu
- National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China
| | - Xiao Nong Zou
- Cancer Institute/Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Alan D Lopez
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
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Kassebaum NJ, Bertozzi-Villa A, Coggeshall MS, Shackelford KA, Steiner C, Heuton KR, Gonzalez-Medina D, Barber R, Huynh C, Dicker D, Templin T, Wolock TM, Ozgoren AA, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abubakar I, Achoki T, Adelekan A, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Akena D, Alasfoor D, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Al Kahbouri MJ, Alla F, Allen PJ, AlMazroa MA, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzmán N, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Amini H, Ammar W, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asad MM, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Basu A, Basu S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bell ML, Bernabe E, Beyene TJ, Bhutta Z, Bin Abdulhak A, Blore JD, Basara BB, Bose D, Breitborde N, Cárdenas R, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavlin A, Chang JC, Che X, Christophi CA, Chugh SS, Cirillo M, Colquhoun SM, Cooper LT, Cooper C, da Costa Leite I, Dandona L, Dandona R, Davis A, Dayama A, Degenhardt L, De Leo D, del Pozo-Cruz B, Deribe K, Dessalegn M, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dilmen U, Ding EL, Dorrington RE, Driscoll TR, Ermakov SP, Esteghamati A, Faraon EJA, Farzadfar F, Felicio MM, Fereshtehnejad SM, de Lima GMF, Forouzanfar MH, França EB, Gaffikin L, Gambashidze K, Gankpé FG, Garcia AC, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Giroud M, Glaser EL, Goginashvili K, Gona P, González-Castell D, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Pi IBH, Hoek HW, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Husseini A, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Inoue M, Jacobsen KH, Jahangir E, Jee SH, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kabagambe EK, Kan H, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Kazi DS, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khalifa SEAH, Khan EA, Khang YH, Knibbs L, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Defo BK, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kumar K, Kumar RB, Kwan G, Lai T, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung R, Li X, Li Y, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lin HH, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, London SJ, Lotufo PA, Ma J, Ma S, Machado VMP, Mainoo NK, Majdan M, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Marzan MB, Mason-Jones AJ, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, de la Cruz Monis J, Hernandez JCM, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Nand D, Nangia V, Nash D, Nejjari C, Nelson RG, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olusanya BO, Omer SB, Opio JN, Orisakwe OE, Pandian JD, Papachristou C, Park JH, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Poenaru D, Polanczyk GV, Polinder S, Pope D, Pourmalek F, Qato D, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, ur Rahman S, Raju M, Rana SM, Refaat A, Ronfani L, Roy N, Pimienta TGS, Sahraian MA, Salomon JA, Sampson U, Santos IS, Sawhney M, Sayinzoga F, Schneider IJC, Schumacher A, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shakh-Nazarova M, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva AP, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soshnikov SS, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tan F, Teixeira CM, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thorne-Lyman AL, Tirschwell DL, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Tsilimbaris M, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uzun SB, Vallely AJ, van Gool CH, Vasankari TJ, Vavilala MS, Venketasubramanian N, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vos T, Waller S, Wang H, Wang L, Wang X, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Westerman R, Wilkinson JD, Woldeyohannes SM, Wong JQ, Wordofa MA, Xu G, Yang YC, Yano Y, Yentur GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Jin KY, El Sayed Zaki M, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zou XN, Lopez AD, Naghavi M, Murray CJL, Lozano R. Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2014; 384:980-1004. [PMID: 24797575 PMCID: PMC4255481 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60696-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1004] [Impact Index Per Article: 100.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. METHODS We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. FINDINGS 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland. INTERPRETATION Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas J Kassebaum
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; Pediatric Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Seattle Children's Hospital, School of Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | | | | | | | - Caitlyn Steiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kyle R Heuton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Ryan Barber
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chantal Huynh
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Daniel Dicker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Tara Templin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | | | - Semaw Ferede Abera
- School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Tigray, Ethiopia
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - François Alla
- School of Public Health, University of Lorraine, Nancy, France
| | | | | | | | - Elena Alvarez
- Spanish Observatory on Drugs, Government Delegation for the National Plan on Drugs, Madrid, Spain; Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality, Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | - Azmeraw T Amare
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands; College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Hassan Amini
- Kurdistan Environmental Health Research Centre, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Kurdistan, Iran
| | | | - Carl A T Antonio
- College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Rana J Asghar
- Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Reza Assadi
- Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Lydia S Atkins
- Ministry Of Health, Wellness, Human Services and Gender Relations, Sans Souci, Castries, Saint Lucia
| | - Alaa Badawi
- Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | - Arindam Basu
- School of Health Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | | | | | - Neeraj Bedi
- College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Jed D Blore
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency, Madrid, Spain
| | - Alanur Cavlin
- Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ankara, Turkey
| | | | - Xuan Che
- National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Cyrus Cooper
- Medical Research Council Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | | | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Muluken Dessalegn
- Africa Medical and Research Foundation in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | | | | | - Uğur Dilmen
- General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Eric L Ding
- Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | | | - Sergei Petrovich Ermakov
- The Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
| | - Alireza Esteghamati
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Centre, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Centre, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ketevan Gambashidze
- National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health of Georgia, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | | | - Ana C Garcia
- Public Health Unit of Primary Health Care Group of Almada-Seixal, Almada, Setúbal, Portugal
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Philimon Gona
- University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USA
| | | | - Atsushi Goto
- Department of Diabetes Research, National Centre for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hebe N Gouda
- University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | | | - Rahul Gupta
- Kanawha Charleston Health Department, Charleston, WV, USA
| | | | - Nima Hafezi-Nejad
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Centre, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Mouhanad Hammami
- Wayne County Department of Health and Human Services, Detroit, MI, USA
| | - Graeme J Hankey
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
| | | | | | | | | | - Hans W Hoek
- Parnassia Psychiatric Institute, The Hague, Netherlands
| | | | - Damian G Hoy
- School of Population Health, QLD, Australia; Public Health Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia
| | | | | | - Kaire Innos
- National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia
| | | | | | | | - Sun Ha Jee
- Graduate School of Public Health, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Vivekanand Jha
- Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - Guohong Jiang
- Tianjin Centres for Diseases Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China
| | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Knud Juel
- National Institute of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | | | | | - André Karch
- Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany
| | | | - Anil Kaul
- Oklahoma State University, Tulsa, OK, USA
| | | | - Konstantin Kazanjan
- National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health of Georgia, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | - Dhruv S Kazi
- University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | | | | | - Maia Kereselidze
- National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health of Georgia, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | | | | | | | - Young-Ho Khang
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Luke Knibbs
- University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Yoshihiro Kokubo
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiologic Informatics, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Centre, Suita, Japan
| | - Soewarta Kosen
- Centre for Community Empowerment, Health Policy and Humanities, National Institute of Health Research and Development, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | | | - Chanda Kulkarni
- Rajrajeshwari Medical College and Hospital, Bangalore, India
| | | | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Ravi B Kumar
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, India
| | - Gene Kwan
- Boston Medical Centre, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Taavi Lai
- Fourth View Consulting, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Ratilal Lalloo
- Australian Research Centre for Population Oral Health (ARCPOH), School of Dentistry, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Hilton Lam
- Institute of Health Policy and Development Studies, National Institutes of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Van C Lansingh
- International Agency for the Prevention of Blindness and Vision 2020, Weston, FL, USA
| | | | | | | | - Mall Leinsalu
- National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia
| | | | - Xiaohong Li
- National Centre for Birth Defects Monitoring of China, Chengdu, China
| | - Yichong Li
- National Centre for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | | | - Juan Liang
- National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xiaofeng Liang
- Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | - Shiwei Liu
- National Centre for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Liu
- University of the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Centre, Quezon City, Philippines
| | | | - Stephanie J London
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | | | - Jixiang Ma
- National Centre for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Stefan Ma
- Ministry of Health Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | | | | | - Marek Majdan
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ted R Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, MD, USA
| | | | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
| | | | | | | | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; Iran University of Medical Sciences, Department of Community Medicine, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rintaro Mori
- National Centre for Child Health and Development, Setagaya, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | | | - Aliya Naheed
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | | | | | - Denis Nash
- School of Public Health, State University of New York, New York, NY, USA
| | | | - Robert G Nelson
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Sudan Prasad Neupane
- Norwegian Centre for Addiction Research (SERAF), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Charles R Newton
- Kenya Medical Research Institute Wellcome Trust Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Marie Ng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | - Sandra Nolte
- Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - John Nelson Opio
- Lira District Local Government, Lira Municipal Council, Lira, Uganda
| | - Orish Ebere Orisakwe
- Toxicology Unit, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Nigeria
| | | | | | - Jae-Hyun Park
- Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, South Korea
| | | | | | - Vinod K Paul
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India
| | | | - Neil Pearce
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - David M Pereira
- 3B's Research Group in Biomaterials, Biodegradables and Biomimetics, University of Minho, Headquarters of the European Institute of Excellence on Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine, and ICVS/3B's PT Government Associate Laboratory, Braga Portugal
| | | | - Max Petzold
- Centre for Applied Biostatistics, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | | | - Suzanne Polinder
- Erasmus Medical Center, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Dan Pope
- University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | | | - Dima Qato
- College of Pharmacy, Chicago, IL, USA
| | | | | | | | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Centre, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Saleem M Rana
- Department of Public Health, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - Luca Ronfani
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
| | - Nobhojit Roy
- Bhaba Atomic Research Center Hospital, Mumbai, India
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Sara Sheikhbahaei
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Centre, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Ivy Shiue
- Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | | | - Andrea P Silva
- Instituto Nacional de Epidemiología Dr Juan H Jara, Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | | | | | - Karen Sliwa
- Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, Faculty of Health Sciences, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Sergey S Soshnikov
- Federal Research Institute for Health Organisation and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
| | - Luciano A Sposato
- Department of Clinical Neurological Sciences, Western University, London, ON, Canada
| | | | | | - Lela Sturua
- National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health of Georgia, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | - Bryan L Sykes
- Department of Criminology, Law and Society (and Sociology), University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
| | | | | | - Feng Tan
- National Institute of Occupational Health and Poison Control, Beijing, China
| | | | | | - Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi
- Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA; Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | - Jeffrey A Towbin
- Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Centre, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | - Bach X Tran
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | | | - Kingsley N Ukwaja
- Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | | | | | | | - Coen H van Gool
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Stephen Waller
- Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Haidong Wang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Linhong Wang
- National Centre for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - XiaoRong Wang
- Shandong University Affiliated Jinan Central Hospital, Jinan, China
| | - Yanping Wang
- National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | | | | | - Robert G Weintraub
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | | | | | - John Q Wong
- Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health, City of Pasig, Manila, Philippines
| | | | - Gelin Xu
- Nanjing University School of Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, China
| | - Yang C Yang
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Yuichiro Yano
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke, Japan
| | | | - Paul Yip
- University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | | | | | | | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Kim Yun Jin
- TCM Medical Tk, Nusajaya, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
| | | | - Yong Zhao
- Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yingfeng Zheng
- Zhongshan Ophthalmic Centre, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Centre for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Zhu
- National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xiao Nong Zou
- Cancer Institute and Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Alan D Lopez
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Rafael Lozano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
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