Future burden of ischemic stroke in Australia: impact on health outcomes between 2019 and 2038

BACKGROUND

Projections of the future burden of ischemic stroke (IS) has not been extensively reported for the Australian population; the availability of such data would assist in health policy planning, clinical guideline updates, and public health.

METHODS

First, we estimated the lifetime risk of IS (from age 40 to 100 years) using a multi-state life table model. Second, a multistate dynamic model was constructed to project the burden of IS for the whole Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a twenty-year period (2019-2038). Data for the study were primarily sourced from a large, representative Victorian linked dataset based on the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset and National Death Index. The model projected prevalent and incident cases of non-fatal IS and fatal-IS, and years of life lived (YLL) with and without IS. The YLL outcome was discounted by 5% annually; we varied the discounting rate in scenario analyses.

RESULTS

The lifetime risk of IS from age 40 years was estimated as 15.5% for males and 14.0% for females in 2018. From 2019-2038, 644 208 Australians were projected to develop incident IS (564 922 non-fatal and 79 287 fatal). By 2038, the model projected there would be 358 534 people with prevalent IS, and in 2038 there would be 35 554 incident non-fatal IS and 5 338 incident fatal-IS, a 14.2% (44 535), 72.9% (14 988) and 106.3% (2 751) increase compared to 2019 estimations, respectively. Projected YLL (with a 5% discount rate) accrued by the Australian population were 174 782 672 (84 251 360 in males and 90 531 312 in females), with 4 053 794 YLL among people with IS (2 320 513 in males, 1 733 281 in females).

CONCLUSION

The burden of IS was projected to increase between 2019 to 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to design strategies to reduce stroke burden.

Ambient PM2.5 and productivity-adjusted life years lost in Brazil: a national population-based study

Enormous health burden has been associated with air pollution and its effects continue to grow. However, the impact of air pollution on labour productivity at the population level is still unknown. This study assessed the association between premature death due to PM2.5 exposure and the loss of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs), in Brazil. We applied a novel variant of the difference-in-difference (DID) approach to assess the association. Daily all-cause mortality data in Brazil were collected from 2000-2019. The PALYs lost increased by 5.11% (95% CI: 4.10-6.13%), for every 10 µg/m3 increase in the 2-day moving average of PM2.5. A total of 9,219,995 (95% CI: 7,491,634-10,921,141) PALYs lost and US$ 268.05 (95% CI: 217.82-317.50) billion economic costs were attributed to PM2.5 exposure, corresponding to 7.37% (95% CI: 5.99-8.73%) of the total PALYs lost due to premature death. This study also found that 5,005,306 PALYs could be avoided if the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guideline (AQG) level was met. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that ambient PM2.5 exposure is associated with a considerable labour productivity burden relating to premature death in Brazil, while over half of the burden could be prevented if the WHO AQG was met. The findings highlight the need to reduce ambient PM2.5 levels and provide strong evidence for the development of strategies to mitigate the economic impacts of air pollution.

Health economics of detection and treatment of children with familial hypercholesterolemia: to screen or not to screen is no longer the question

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH) is one of the most common monogenic disorders and is safely treatable with lipid-lowering medication. However, most individuals with HeFH remain untreated and undetected, especially in paediatric populations where the potential for long-term therapeutic benefit is higher. Here, we review the recent literature on health economic outcomes for the detection and management of FH in children.

RECENT FINDINGS

A targeted literature review identified eight studies evaluating detection and management strategies for paediatric FH populations in the last 25 years. Most studies conducted modelled cost-effectiveness analyses to understand the long-term impact of these strategies on health outcomes and the financial impact on the healthcare system. All studies reported that detection and management of HeFH in paediatric populations was cost-effective, regardless of the age of the children. However, cost-effectiveness varied depending on the method of case ascertainment - targeted screening was generally cheaper overall, but less effective, than whole-of-population screening, although both methods were generally cost-effective.

SUMMARY

Detection and management of HeFH in paediatric populations is a cost-effective way to significantly lower the burden of disease later in life for these individuals. These strategies should be implemented across healthcare systems.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Strategies for Familial Hypercholesterolaemia: An Updated Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to systematically synthesise the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies to detect heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH).

METHODS

We searched seven databases from inception to 2 February , 2023, for eligible cost-effective analysis (CEA) that evaluated screening strategies for FH versus the standard care for FH detection. Independent reviewers performed the screening, data extraction and quality evaluation. Cost results were adapted to 2022 US dollars (US$) to facilitate comparisons between studies using the same screening strategies. Cost-effectiveness thresholds were based on the original study criteria.

RESULTS

A total of 21 studies evaluating 62 strategies were included in this review, most of the studies (95%) adopted a healthcare perspective in the base case, and majority were set in high-income countries. Strategies analysed included cascade screening (23 strategies), opportunistic screening (13 strategies), systematic screening (11 strategies) and population-wide screening (15 strategies). Most of the strategies relied on genetic diagnosis for case ascertainment. The most common comparator was no screening, but some studies compared the proposed strategy versus current screening strategies or versus the best next alternative. Six studies evaluated screening in children while the remaining were targeted at adults. From a healthcare perspective, cascade screening was cost-effective in 78% of the studies [cost-adapted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranged from dominant to 2022 US$ 104,877], opportunistic screening in 85% (ICERs from US$4959 to US$41,705), systematic screening in 80% (ICERs from US$2763 to US$69,969) and population-wide screening in 60% (ICERs from US$1484 to US$223,240). The most common driver of ICER identified in the sensitivity analysis was the long-term cost of lipid-lowering treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on reported willingness to pay thresholds for each setting, most CEA studies concluded that screening for FH compared with no screening was cost-effective, regardless of the screening strategy. Cascade screening resulted in the largest health benefits per person tested.

Work productivity, quality of life, and care needs: An unfolding epilepsy burden revealed in the Australian Epilepsy Project pilot study

OBJECTIVE

Epilepsy is a common and serious neurological disorder. This cross-sectional analysis addresses the burden of epilepsy at different stages of the disease.

METHODS

This pilot study is embedded within the Australian Epilepsy Project (AEP), aiming to provide epilepsy support through a national network of dedicated sites. For this analysis, adults aged 18-65 years with first unprovoked seizure (FUS), newly diagnosed epilepsy (NDE), or drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) were recruited between February-August 2022. Baseline clinicodemographic data were collected from the participants who completed questionnaires to assess their quality of life (QOLIE-31, EQ-5D-5L), work productivity (Work Productivity and Activity Impairment [WPAI]), and care needs. Univariate analysis and multivariate regression was performed.

RESULTS

172 participants formed the study cohort (median age 34, interquartile range [IQR]: 26-45), comprising FUS (n = 44), NDE (n = 53), and DRE (n = 75). Mean QOLIE-31 score was 56 (standard deviation [SD] ± 18) and median EQ-5D-5L score was 0.77 (IQR: 0.56-0.92). QOLIE-31 but not EQ-5D-5L scores were significantly lower in the DRE group compared to FUS and NDE groups (p < 0.001). Overall, 64.5% of participants participated in paid work, with fewer DRE (52.0%) compared with FUS (76.7%) and NDE (72.5%) (p < 0.001). Compared to those not in paid employment, those in paid employment had significantly higher quality of life scores (p < 0.001). Almost 5.8% of participants required formal care (median 20 h/week, IQR: 12-55) and 17.7% required informal care (median 16 h/week, IQR: 7-101).

SIGNIFICANCE

Epilepsy is associated with a large burden in terms of quality of life, productivity and care needs.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

This is a pilot study from the Australian Epilepsy Project (AEP). It reports health economic data for adults of working age who live with epilepsy. It found that people with focal drug-resistant epilepsy had lower quality of life scores and were less likely to participate in paid employment compared to people with new diagnosis epilepsy. This study provides important local data regarding the burden of epilepsy and will help researchers in the future to measure the impact of the AEP on important personal and societal health economic outcomes.

The Burden of Type 2 Diabetes on the Productivity and Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Life Table Modelling Analysis from a South African Perspective

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is rapidly increasing in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). T2D increases the risk of premature death and reduces quality of life and work productivity. This population life table modelling analysis evaluated the impact of T2D in terms of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) on the South African working-age population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Life table modelling was employed to simulate the follow-up of individuals aged 20-65 with T2D in South Africa (SA). Two life table models were developed to simulate health outcomes for a SA cohort with and without diabetes. The difference in the number of deaths, years of life lost (YLL), and PALYs lost between the two cohorts represented the burden of diabetes. Scenarios were simulated in which the proportions of gross domestic productivity (GDP), productivity indices, labour force dropout, and mortality risk trends were adjusted to lower and upper uncertainty bounds. Data were sourced from the International Diabetes Federation, Statistics SA, and both publicly available and published sources. We utilised the World Health Organization (WHO) standard annual discount rate of 3% for YLL and PALYs.

RESULTS

In 2019, an estimated 9.5% (7.68% men and 11.37% women) or 3.2 million total working-age people had T2D in SA. Simulated follow-up until retirement predicted 669,427 excess mortality, a loss of 6.2 million years of life (9.3%) and 13 million PALYs (30.6%) in SA. On average, this resulted in 3.1 PALYs lost per person. Based on the GDP per full-time employee in 2019, the PALYs loss equated to US$223 billion, or US$69,875 per person.

CONCLUSIONS

This study emphasises the significant impact of T2D on society and the economy. Relatively modest T2D prevention and treatment management enhancement could lead to substantial economic benefits in SA.

Current and Future Cost Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Dynamic Model

BACKGROUND

Stroke remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Australia. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and future cost burden of ischemic stroke (IS) in Australia.

METHOD

First, chronic management costs following IS were derived for all people aged ≥ 30 years discharged from a public or private hospital in Victoria, Australia between July 2012 and June 2017 (n = 34 471). These costs were then used to project total costs following IS (combination of acute event and chronic management cost) over a 20-year period (2019-2038) for people aged between 30 and 99 years in Australia using a dynamic multistate lifetable model. Data for the dynamic model were sourced from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED) and supplemented with other published data.

RESULT

The estimated annual total chronic management cost following IS was 13 525 Australian dollars (AUD) per person (95%CI: AUD 13 380, AUD 13 670) for cohorts in the VAED between July 2012 and June 2017. The annual chronic management cost was estimated to decline following IS. The highest cost was incurred in the first year of follow-up post-IS (AUD 14 309 per person) and declined to AUD 9 776 in the sixth year of follow-up post-IS. The total healthcare cost for people aged 30-99 years was projected to be AUD 47.7 billion (95% UI: AUD 44.6 billion, AUD 51.0 billion) over the 20-year period (2019-2038) Australia-wide, of which 91.3% (AUD 43.6 billion) was attributed to chronic management costs and the remaining 8.7% (AUD 4.2 billion) were due to acute IS events.

CONCLUSION

IS has and will continue to have a considerable financial impact in the next two decades on the Australian healthcare system. Our estimated and projected cost burden following IS provides important information for decision making in relation to IS.

No effect of remoteness on clinical outcomes following myocardial infarction: An analysis of 43,729 myocardial infarctions in Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND

Remoteness has been shown to predict poor clinical outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI). This study investigated 1-year clinical outcomes following MI by remoteness in Victoria, Australia.

METHODS

We included all admissions for people discharged from hospital following MI between July 2012 and June 2017 (n = 43,729). Remoteness was determined using the Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA). The relationship between remoteness and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality over 1-year was evaluated using adjusted Poisson regression, stratified by type STEMI and NSTEMI.

RESULTS

For NSTEMI, adjusted rates of MACE were 77.5[95% confidence interval 65.1-92.1] for the most remote area versus 83.4[65.5-106.3] for the least remote area per 1000 person-years. For STEMI, rates of MACE were 28.5[18.3-44.6] for the most versus 33.5[18.9-59.4] for the least remote areas per 1000 person-years. With respect to all-cause mortality, NSTEMI mortality rates were 82.2[67.0-100.9] for the most versus 100.8[75.2-135.1] for the least remote areas per 1000 person-years. For STEMI, mortality rates were 24.7[13.7-44.7] for the most versus 22.3[9.8-50.8] for the least remote per 1000 person-years.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of MACE and all-cause mortality were similar in regardless of degree of remoteness, suggesting that initiatives to increase access to cardiology care in more remote areas succeeded in reducing previous disparities.

Lipid-Lowering Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease in the UK: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

AIM

We aimed to assess the cost effectiveness of four different lipid-lowering strategies for primary prevention of coronary heart disease initiated at ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years from the UK National Health Service perspective.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model comparing the initiation of a lipid-lowering strategy to current standard of care (control). We included 458,692 participants of the UK Biobank study. The four lipid-lowering strategies were: (1) low/moderate-intensity statins; (2) high-intensity statins; (3) low/moderate-intensity statins and ezetimibe; and (4) inclisiran. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for each lipid-lowering strategy compared to the control, with 3.5% annual discounting using 2021 GBP (£); incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were compared to the UK willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000-£30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year.

RESULTS

The most effective intervention, low/moderate-intensity statins and ezetimibe, was projected to lead to a gain in quality-adjusted life-years of 0.067 per person initiated at 30 and 0.026 at age 60 years. Initiating therapy at 40 years of age was the most cost effective for all lipid-lowering strategies, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £2553 (95% uncertainty interval: 1270, 3969), £4511 (3138, 6401), £11,107 (8655, 14,508), and £1,406,296 (1,121,775, 1,796,281) per quality-adjusted life-year gained for strategies 1-4, respectively. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were lower for male individuals (vs female individuals) and for people with higher (vs lower) low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. For example, low/moderate-intensity statin use initiated from age 40 years had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £5891 (3822, 9348), £2174 (772, 4216), and was dominant (i.e. cost saving; -2,760, 350) in female individuals with a low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol of ≥ 3.0, ≥ 4.0 and ≥ 5.0 mmol/L, respectively. Inclisiran was not cost effective in any sub-group at its current price.

CONCLUSIONS

Low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol lowering from early ages is a more cost-effective strategy than late intervention and cost effectiveness increased with the increasing lifetime risk of coronary heart disease.

Societal health and economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population with type 2 diabetes in Qatar. A 10-year forecasting model

AIMS

To predict the future health and economic burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Qatar.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A dynamic multistate model was designed to simulate the progression of fatal and non-fatal CVD events among people with T2D in Qatar aged 40-79 years. First CVD events [i.e. myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke] were calculated via the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent CVD events were sourced from the REACH registry. Key model outcomes were fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years, total direct medical costs and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost model inputs were drawn from published sources. The model adopted a Qatari societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of estimates.

RESULTS

Over 10 years among people with T2D, model estimates 108 195 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 104 249-112 172] non-fatal MIs, 62 366 (95% UI 60 283-65 520) non-fatal strokes and 14 612 (95% UI 14 472-14 744) CVD deaths. The T2D population accrued 4 786 605 (95% UI 4 743 454, 4 858 705) total years of life lived and 3 781 833 (95% UI 3 724 718-3 830 669) total quality-adjusted life years. Direct costs accounted for 57.85% of the total costs, with a projection of QAR41.60 billion (US$11.40 billion) [95% UI 7.53-147.40 billion (US$2.06-40.38 billion)], while the total indirect costs were expected to exceed QAR30.31 billion (US$8.30 billion) [95% UI 1.07-162.60 billion (US$292.05 million-44.55 billion)].

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest a significant economic and health burden of CVD among people with T2D in Qatar and highlight the need for more enhanced preventive strategies targeting this population group.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of short-stay programmes for total hip and knee replacement, focusing on safety and optimal patient selection

BACKGROUND

Short-stay joint replacement programmes are used in many countries but there has been little scrutiny of safety outcomes in the literature. We aimed to systematically review evidence on the safety of short-stay programmes versus usual care for total hip (THR) and knee replacement (KR), and optimal patient selection.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental studies including a comparator group reporting on 14 safety outcomes (hospital readmissions, reoperations, blood loss, emergency department visits, infection, mortality, neurovascular injury, other complications, periprosthetic fractures, postoperative falls, venous thromboembolism, wound complications, dislocation, stiffness) within 90 days postoperatively in adults ≥ 18 years undergoing primary THR or KR were included. Secondary outcomes were associations between patient demographics or clinical characteristics and patient outcomes. Four databases were searched between January 2000 and May 2023. Risk of bias and certainty of the evidence were assessed.

RESULTS

Forty-nine studies were included. Based upon low certainty RCT evidence, short-stay programmes may not reduce readmission (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.12-7.43); blood transfusion requirements (OR 1.75, 95% CI 0.27-11.36); neurovascular injury (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.01-7.92); other complications (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.26-1.53); or stiffness (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.53-2.05). For registry studies, there was no difference in readmission, infection, neurovascular injury, other complications, venous thromboembolism, or wound complications but there were reductions in mortality and dislocations. For interrupted time series studies, there was no difference in readmissions, reoperations, blood loss volume, emergency department visits, infection, mortality, or neurovascular injury; reduced odds of blood transfusion and other complications, but increased odds of periprosthetic fracture. For other observational studies, there was an increased risk of readmission, no difference in blood loss volume, infection, other complications, or wound complications, reduced odds of requiring blood transfusion, reduced mortality, and reduced venous thromboembolism. One study examined an outcome relevant to optimal patient selection; it reported comparable blood loss for short-stay male and female participants (p = 0.814).

CONCLUSIONS

There is low certainty evidence that short-stay programmes for THR and KR may have non-inferior 90-day safety outcomes. There is little evidence on factors informing optimal patient selection; this remains an important knowledge gap.

Stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs: results from a national cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The capacity to meet anticipated growth in joint replacement demand requires safe, efficient models of care. While short-stay joint replacement programs are being used internationally, they have not been widely implemented in many countries. Importantly, the critical challenges that need to be addressed ahead of large-scale program implementation remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs, including perceived barriers and enablers to implementation and sustainability, and understand current practices in Australia.

METHODS

Four key stakeholder groups were invited to participate in this national study: (1) health professionals who provide joint replacement care; (2) hospital administrators involved in joint replacement provision; (3) patients with recent joint replacement; and (4) carers of people with recent joint replacement. Data on perceived feasibility (0 (not at all feasible) - 10 (highly feasible), appeal (0 (not at all appealing) - 10 (highly appealing), current practices, and barriers and enablers were collected using visual analogue scales, multiple response option and open-ended questions, via an online platform. Descriptive analysis and free-text content analysis was undertaken.

RESULTS

Data were available from 1,445 participants including 360 health professionals, 20 hospital administrators, 1,034 patients, and 31 carers. Short-stay program implementation was considered moderately feasible by health professionals (median 6, interquartile range (IQR) 3-8) and hospital administrators (median 5, IQR 5-6). Short-stay programs were moderately appealing to patients (median 7, IQR 2-9) but of little appeal to carers (median 3, IQR 1-7). Prominent implementation barriers included perceived limited appropriateness of short-stay programs, inadequate home supports, and issues around reimbursement models or program funding. Not having daily physiotherapy access and concerns about pain and mobility at home were common barriers for patients. Concern about patients' ability to manage daily activities was the most common barrier for carers. Access to post-discharge services, better funding models, improved staffing, and consistent protocols and national care standards were prominent enablers.

CONCLUSIONS

This national study has uniquely captured multiple stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs. The findings can guide future quality improvement and implementation initiatives and the development of resources to best support patients, carers, clinicians, and hospitals.

Combined population genomic screening for three high-risk conditions in Australia: a modelling study

Background

No previous health-economic evaluation has assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of offering combined adult population genomic screening for mutliple high-risk conditions in a national public healthcare system.

Methods

This modeling study assessed the impact of offering combined genomic screening for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, Lynch syndrome and familial hypercholesterolaemia to all young adults in Australia, compared with the current practice of clinical criteria-based testing for each condition separately. The intervention of genomic screening, assumed as an up-front single cost in the first annual model cycle, would detect pathogenic variants in seven high-risk genes. The simulated population was 18-40 year-olds (8,324,242 individuals), modelling per-sample test costs ranging AU$100-$1200 (base-case AU$200) from the year 2023 onwards with testing uptake of 50%. Interventions for identified high-risk variant carriers follow current Australian guidelines, modelling imperfect uptake and adherence. Outcome measures were morbidity and mortality due to cancer (breast, ovarian, colorectal and endometrial) and coronary heart disease (CHD) over a lifetime horizon, from healthcare-system and societal perspectives. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), discounted 5% annually (with 3% discounting in scenario analysis).

Findings

Over the population lifetime (to age 80 years), the model estimated that genomic screening per-100,000 individuals would lead to 747 QALYs gained by preventing 63 cancers, 31 CHD cases and 97 deaths. In the total model population, this would translate to 31,094 QALYs gained by preventing 2612 cancers, 542 non-fatal CHD events and 4047 total deaths. At AU$200 per-test, genomic screening would require an investment of AU$832 million for screening of 50% of the population. Our findings suggest that this intervention would be cost-effective from a healthcare-system perspective, yielding an ICER of AU$23,926 (∼£12,050/€14,110/US$15,345) per QALY gained over the status quo. In scenario analysis with 3% discounting, an ICER of AU$4758/QALY was obtained. Sensitivity analysis for the base case indicated that combined genomic screening would be cost-effective under 70% of simulations, cost-saving under 25% and not cost-effective under 5%. Threshold analysis showed that genomic screening would be cost-effective under the AU$50,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold at per-test costs up to AU$325 (∼£164/€192/US$208).

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that offering combined genomic screening for high-risk conditions to young adults would be cost-effective in the Australian public healthcare system, at currently realistic testing costs. Other matters, including psychosocial impacts, ethical and societal issues, and implementation challenges, also need consideration.

Funding

Australian Government, Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, Genomics Health Futures Mission (APP2009024). National Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellowship (102604).

Use of secondary prevention medications in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas: an analysis of 41,925 myocardial infarctions in Australia

BACKGROUND

People in remote areas may have more difficulty accessing healthcare following myocardial infarction (MI) than people in metropolitan areas. We determined whether remoteness was associated with initial and 12-month use of secondary prevention medications following MI in Victoria, Australia.

METHOD

We included all people alive at least 90 days post-discharge following MI between July 2012 and June 2017 in Victoria, Australia (n=41,925). We investigated dispensing of P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12i), statins, ACE-inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEI/ARBs), and beta-blockers within 90 days post-discharge. We estimated 12-month medication use using proportion of days covered (PDC). Remoteness was determined using the Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA). Data were analyzed using adjusted parametric regression models stratified by STEMI and NSTEMI.

RESULTS

There were 10,819 STEMI admissions and 31,106 NSTEMI admissions. Following adjustment across NSTEMI and STEMI, there were no medication classes dispensed in the 90-days post-discharge that differed in a clinically significant way from the least remote (ARIA=0) to the most remote (ARIA=4.8) areas. The largest difference for NSTEMI were ACEi/ARB, with 71%(95%CI 70-72%) versus 80%(76%-83%). For STEMI, it was statins with 89%(88-90%) versus 95%(91-97%). Predicted PDC for STEMI and NSTEMI were not clinically significant across remoteness, with the largest difference in NSTEMI being P2Y12i with 48%(47-50%) versus 55%(51-59%), and in STEMI it was ACEi/ARB with 68%(67-69%) versus 76%(70-80%).

CONCLUSION

Remoteness does not appear to be a clinically significant driver for medication use following MI. Possible differences in cardiovascular outcomes in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas are not likely to be explained by access to secondary prevention medications.

Guideline concordant prescribing following myocardial infarction in people who are frail: A systematic review

AIMS

The risk-to-benefit ratio of cardioprotective medications in frail older adults is uncertain. The objective was to systematically review prescribing of guideline-recommended cardioprotective medications following myocardial infarction (MI) in people who are frail.

DATA SOURCES

Ovid Medline, PubMed and Cochrane were searched from inception to October 2022 for studies that reported prescribing of one or more cardioprotective medication classes post-MI or acute coronary syndromes in people with frailty.

STUDY SELECTION

We included observational studies that reported prescribing of cardioprotective medications post-MI stratified by frailty status.

RESULTS

Overall, 16 cohort studies published from 2013 to 2022 that used seven different frailty scales were included. Prescribing of all cardioprotective medication classes following MI was lower in frail compared to non-frail people, with absolute rates of prescribing varying substantially across studies. Median prescribing in frail and non-frail people, respectively, was 88.9% (IQR 81.5-96.2) and 93.1% (IQR 92.0-98.9) for aspirin; 68.1% (IQR 61.9-91.2) and 86.7% (IQR 79.5-92.8) for P2Y12-inhibitors; 83.1% (IQR 76.9-91.3) and 94.0% (IQR 87.1-95.9) for lipid-lowering therapy; 67.9% (IQR 60.6-74.0) and 74.7% (IQR 71.3-84.5) for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin II receptor blockers; and 74.1% (IQR 69.2-79) and 77.6% (IQR 71.8-85.9) for beta-blockers.

CONCLUSION

People who were frail were less likely to be prescribed guideline recommended medication classes post-MI than those who were non-frail. Further research is needed into treatment benefits and risks in frail people to avoid unnecessarily withholding treatment in this high-risk population, while also minimising potential for medication related harm.

Estimating Australian Hospitalization Ratios and Costs for Wildtype SARS-CoV-2 in 2020

Utilizing a retrospective cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 wildtype (Wuhan) strain, we aimed to 1) utilize the unique Australian experience of temporarily eliminating SARS-CoV-2 to document and estimate the hospitalization demand; and 2) estimate the inpatient hospital costs associated with treatment. Case data was based on Victoria Australia from March 29 to December 31, 2020. Outcomes measures included hospitalization demand and case fatality ratio and inpatient hospitalization costs. Population adjusted results indicated that 10.2% (CI 9.9%-10.5%) required ward only admission, 1.0% (CI 0.9%-1.1%) required ICU admission plus 1.0% (CI 0.9%-1.1%) required ICU with mechanical ventilation. The overall case fatality ratio was 2.9% (CI 2.7%-3.1%). Mean ward only patient costs ranged from $22,714 to $57,100 per admission whilst ICU patient costs ranged from $37,228 to $140,455. With delayed, manageable outbreaks and public health measures leading to temporary elimination of community transmission, the Victorian COVID-19 data provides insight into initial pandemic severity and hospital costs.

Future burden of myocardial infarction in Australia: impact on health outcomes between 2019 and 2038

BACKGROUND

Myocardial infarction (MI) remains a major health burden in Australia. Yet the future burden of MI has not been extensively studied for the Australian population.

METHODS

A multistate lifetable model was constructed to estimate the lifetime risk of MI and project the health burden of MI for the Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a 20-year period (2019-2028). Data for the model was primarily sourced from the Victorian linked dataset and supplemented with other national data.

RESULTS

The lifetime risk of MI from age 40 years was estimated as 24.4% for males and 13.2% for females in 2018. From 2019-2038, 891 142 Australians were projected to develop incident MI. By 2038, the model estimated there would be 702 226 people with prevalent MI, 51 262 incident non-fatal MI and 3 717 incident fatal MI; these numbers represent a significant increase compared to the 2019 estimates, with a 27.0% (148 827), 62.0% (19 629), and 104.7% (1 901) rise, respectively. Projected years of life lived (YLL) (5% discount) accrued by the Australian population were 174 795 232 (84, 356 304 in males and 90 438 928 in females), with 7 657 423 YLL among people with MI (4 997 009 in males and 2 660 414 in females).

CONCLUSION

The burden of MI was projected to increase between 2019 to 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to prioritise population-wide prevention strategies to reduce the burden of MI.

Considering equity and cost-effectiveness in assessing a parenting intervention to promote early childhood development in rural Vietnam

Considering equity in early childhood development (ECD) is important to ensure healthy development for every child. Equity-informative cost-effectiveness analysis can further guide decision makers to maximize outcomes with limited resources while promoting equity. This cost-effectiveness study aimed to examine the equity impacts of a multicomponent ECD intervention in rural Vietnam. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of the intervention with a 30-month time horizon from the service provider and household perspectives with equity considerations. Data were from a cluster-randomized controlled trial comparing the intervention with the local standard of care. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per child cognitive development score gained were estimated by household wealth quintile and maternal education level, adjusted for cluster effects and baseline characteristics such as maternal parity and age. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs, and non-parametric cluster bootstrapping was used to examine uncertainty around ICERs. Children in the intervention had higher cognitive development scores than those in the control arm across all subgroups. Based on intervention recurrent cost, the ICER per cognitive development score gained was lower in children from the poorest quintile (-US$6) compared to those from the richest quintile (US$16). Similarly, the ICER per cognitive development score gained was lower in children whose mothers had the lowest education level (-US$0.02) than those with mothers who had the highest education level (US$7). Even though our findings should be interpreted with caution due to the insufficient study power, the findings suggest that the intervention could promote equity while improving child cognitive development with greater cost-effectiveness in disadvantaged groups.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Siltuximab for Australian Public Investment in the Rare Condition Idiopathic Multicentric Castleman Disease

OBJECTIVES

This paper presents an Australian model that formed part of the health technology assessment for public investment in siltuximab for the rare condition of idiopathic Multicentric Castleman Disease (iMCD) in Australia.

METHODS

Two literature reviews were conducted to identify the appropriate comparator and model structure. Survival gain based on available clinical trial data were modelled using an Excel-based model semi-Markov model including time-varying transition probabilities, an adjustment for trial crossover and long-term data. A 20-year horizon was taken, and an Australian healthcare system perspective was adopted, with both benefits and costs discounted at 5%. The model was informed with an inclusive stakeholder approach that included a review of the model by an independent economist, Australian clinical expert opinion and feedback from the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC). The price used in the economic evaluation reflects a confidential discounted price, which was agreed to with the PBAC.

RESULTS

An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$84,935 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was estimated. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of A$100,000 per QALY, siltuximab has a 72.1% probability of being cost-effective compared with placebo and best supportive care. Sensitivity analyses results were most sensitive to the length of interval between administrations (from 3- to 6-weekly) and crossover adjustments.

CONCLUSION

Within a collaborative and inclusive stakeholder framework, the model submitted to the Australian PBAC found siltuximab to be cost-effective for the treatment of iMCD.

Promoting early childhood development in Viet Nam: cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Economic evaluations are critical to ensure effective resource use to implement and scale up child development interventions. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a multicomponent early childhood development intervention in rural Viet Nam.

METHODS

We did a cost-effectiveness study alongside a cluster-randomised trial with a 30-month time horizon. The study included 669 mothers from 42 communes in the intervention group, and 576 mothers from 42 communes in the control group. Mothers in the intervention group attended Learning Clubs sessions from mid-pregnancy to 12 months after delivery. The primary outcomes were child cognitive, language, motor, and social-emotional development at age 2 years. In this analysis, we estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of the intervention compared with the usual standard of care from the service provider and household perspectives. We used non-parametric bootstrapping to examine uncertainty, and applied a 3% discount rate.

FINDINGS

The total intervention cost was US$169 898 (start-up cost $133 692 and recurrent cost $36 206). The recurrent cost per child was $58 (1 341 741 Vietnamese dong). Considering the recurrent cost alone, the base-case ICER was $14 and mean ICER of 1000 bootstrap samples was $14 (95% CI -0·48 to 30) per cognitive development score gained with a 3% discount rate to costs. The ICER per language and motor development score gained was $22 and $20, respectively, with a 3% discount rate to costs.

INTERPRETATION

The intervention was cost-effective: the ICER per child cognitive development score gained was 0·5% of Viet Nam's gross domestic product per capita, alongside other benefits in language and motor development. This finding supports the scaling up of this intervention in similar socioeconomic settings.

FUNDING

Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Grand Challenges Canada.

TRANSLATION

For the Vietnamese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Estimating the Health Care Expenditure to Manage and Care for Type 2 Diabetes in Nepal: A Patient Perspective

Background. This study aimed to estimate the health care expenditure for managing type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the community setting of Nepal. Methods. This is a baseline cross-sectional study of a heath behavior intervention that was conducted between September 2021 and February 2022 among patients with T2D (N = 481) in the Kavrepalanchok and Nuwakot districts of Nepal. Bottom-up and micro-costing approaches were used to estimate the health care costs and were stratified according to residential status and the presence of comorbid conditions. A generalized linear model with a log-link and gamma distribution was applied for modeling the continuous right-skewed costs, and 95% confidence intervals were obtained from 10,000 bootstrapping resampling techniques. Results. Over 6 months the mean health care resource cost to manage T2D was US $22.87 per patient: 61% included the direct medical cost (US $14.01), 15% included the direct nonmedical cost (US $3.43), and 24% was associated with productivity losses (US $5.44). The mean health care resource cost per patient living in an urban community (US $24.65) was about US $4.95 higher than patients living in the rural community (US $19.69). The health care costs per patient with comorbid conditions was US $22.93 and was US $22.81 for those without comorbidities. Patients living in rural areas had 16% lower health care expenses compared with their urban counterparts. Conclusion. T2D imposes a substantial financial burden on both the health care system and individuals. There is a need to establish high-value care treatment strategies for the management of T2D to reduce the high health care expenses.

Highlights

More than 60% of health care expenses comprise the direct medical cost, 15% direct nonmedical cost, and 24% patient productivity losses. The costs of diagnosis, hospitalization, and recommended foods were the main drivers of health care costs for managing type 2 diabetes.Health care expenses among patients living in urban communities and patients with comorbid conditions was higher compared with those in rural communities and those with without comorbidities.The results of this study are expected to help integrate diabetes care within the existing primary health care systems, thereby reducing health care expenses and improving the quality of diabetes care in Nepal.

Targeting Diabetes Prevention to More Disadvantaged Groups Improves Cost-Effectiveness: Implications of Inequality in Type 2 Diabetes From Theoretical Interventions

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effect of socioeconomic status on efficacy and cost thresholds at which theoretical diabetes prevention policies become cost-effective.

METHODS

We designed a life table model using real-world data that captured diabetes incidence and all-cause mortality in people with and without diabetes by socioeconomic disadvantage. The model used data from the Australian diabetes registry for people with diabetes and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare for the general population. We simulated theoretical diabetes prevention policies and estimated the threshold at which they would be cost-effective and cost saving, overall, and by socioeconomic disadvantage, from the public healthcare perspective.

RESULTS

From 2020 to 2029, 653 980 people were projected to develop type 2 diabetes, 101 583 in the least disadvantaged quintile and 166 744 in the most. Theoretical diabetes prevention policies that reduce diabetes incidence by 10% and 25% would be cost-effective in the total population at a maximum per person cost of Australian dollar (AU$) 74 (95% uncertainty interval: 53-99) and AU$187 (133-249) and cost saving at AU$26 (20-33) and AU$65 (50-84). Theoretical diabetes prevention policies remained cost-effective at a higher cost in the most versus least disadvantaged quintile (eg, a policy that reduces type 2 diabetes incidence by 25% would be cost-effective at AU$238 [169-319] per person in the most disadvantaged quintile vs AU$144 [103-192] in the least).

CONCLUSIONS

Policies targeted at more disadvantaged populations will likely be cost-effective at higher costs and lower efficacy compared to untargeted policies. Future health economic models should incorporate measures of socioeconomic disadvantage to improve targeting of interventions.

Impact of epilepsy surgery on quality of life: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Improved quality of life (QoL) is an important outcome goal following epilepsy surgery. This study aims to quantify change in QoL for adults with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) who undergo epilepsy surgery, and to explore clinicodemographic factors associated with these changes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. All studies reporting pre- and post-epilepsy surgery QoL scores in adults with DRE via validated instruments were included. Meta-analysis assessed the postsurgery change in QoL. Meta-regression assessed the effect of postoperative seizure outcomes on postoperative QoL as well as change in pre- and postoperative QoL scores. A total of 3774 titles and abstracts were reviewed, and ultimately 16 studies, comprising 1182 unique patients, were included. Quality of Life in Epilepsy Inventory-31 item (QOLIE-31) meta-analysis included six studies, and QOLIE-89 meta-analysis included four studies. Postoperative change in raw score was 20.5 for QOLIE-31 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.9-30.1, I2  = 95.5) and 12.1 for QOLIE-89 (95% CI = 8.0-16.1, I2  = 55.0%). This corresponds to clinically meaningful QOL improvements. Meta-regression demonstrated a higher postoperative QOLIE-31 score as well as change in pre- and postoperative QOLIE-31 score among studies of cohorts with higher proportions of patients with favorable seizure outcomes. At an individual study level, preoperative absence of mood disorders, better preoperative cognition, fewer trials of antiseizure medications before surgery, high levels of conscientiousness and openness to experience at the baseline, engagement in paid employment before and after surgery, and not being on antidepressants following surgery were associated with improved postoperative QoL. This study demonstrates the potential for epilepsy surgery to provide clinically meaningful improvements in QoL, as well as identifies clinicodemographic factors associated with this outcome. Limitations include substantial heterogeneity between individual studies and high risk of bias.

Exploring the Health and Economic Burden Among Truck Drivers in Australia: A Health Economic Modelling Study

Background The transport and logistics industry contributes to a significant proportion of the Australian economy. However, few studies have explored the economic and clinical burden attributed to poor truck driver health. We therefore estimated the work-related mortality burden among truck drivers over a 10-year period. Methods Dynamic life table modelling was used to simulate the follow-up of the Australian male working-age population (aged 15-65 years) over a 10-year period of follow-up (2021-2030). The model estimated the number of deaths occurring among the Australian working population, as well as deaths occurring for male truck drivers. Data from the Driving Health study and other published sources were used to inform work-related mortality and associated productivity loss, hospitalisations and medication costs, patient utilities and the value of statistical life year (VoSLY). All outcomes were discounted by 5% per annum. Results Over 10 years, poor truck driver health was associated with a loss of 21,173 years of life lived (discounted), or 18,294 QALYs (discounted). Healthcare costs amounted to AU$485 million (discounted) over this period. From a broader, societal perspective, a total cost of AU$2.6 billion (discounted) in lost productivity and AU$4.7 billion in lost years of life was estimated over a 10-year period. Scenario analyses supported the robustness of our findings. Conclusions The health and economic consequences of poor driver health are significant, and highlight the need for interventions to reduce the burden of work-related injury or disease for truck drivers and other transport workers.

Projecting the Health and Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Among People with Type 2 Diabetes, 2022-2031

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to project the health and economic outcomes of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people with type 2 diabetes from Australian public healthcare and societal perspectives over the next decade.

METHODS

A dynamic multistate model with yearly cycles was developed to project cardiovascular events among Australians with type 2 diabetes aged 40-89 years from 2022 to 2031. CVD risk (myocardial infarction [MI] and stroke) in the type 2 diabetes population was estimated using the 2013 pooled cohort equation, and recurrent cardiovascular event rates in the type 2 diabetes with established CVD population were obtained from the global Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry. Costs and utilities were derived from published sources. Outcomes included fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total healthcare costs, and total productivity losses. The annual discount rate was 5%, applied to outcomes and costs.

RESULTS

Between 2022 and 2031, a total of 83,618 non-fatal MIs (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 83,170-84,053) and 58,774 non-fatal strokes (95% UI 58,458-59,013) were projected. Total years of life lived and QALYs (discounted) were projected to be 9,549,487 (95% UI 9,416,423-9,654,043) and 6,632,897 (95% UI 5,065,606-7,591,679), respectively. Total healthcare costs and total lost productivity costs (discounted) were projected to be 9.59 billion Australian dollars (AU$) (95% UI 1.90-30.45 billion) and AU$9.07 billion (95% UI 663.53 million-33.19 billion), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

CVD in people with type 2 diabetes will substantially impact the Australian healthcare system and society over the next decade. Future work to investigate different strategies to optimize the control of risk factors for the prevention and treatment of CVD in type 2 diabetes in Australia is warranted.

Economic impact of clinical pharmacist interventions in a general tertiary hospital in Qatar

BACKGROUND

With an increasingly strained health system budgets, healthcare services need to continually demonstrate evidence of economic benefits. This study sought to evaluate the economic impact of interventions initiated by clinical pharmacists in an adult general tertiary hospital.

METHODS

A retrospective review of clinical pharmacist interventions was carried out throughout follow-up durations in March 2018, July/August 2018, and January 2019 in Hamad General Hospital (HGH) at Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC) in Qatar. The study included clinical pharmacy interventions data of patients admitted to the internal medicine, critical care, and emergency wards. Included interventions were documented by clinical pharmacists or clinical pharmacy specialists, and approved by physicians. Interventions by non-clinical pharmacists or with missing data were excluded. Adopting the perspective of HMC, we calculated the total economic benefit, which is the sum of the cost savings and the cost avoidance associated with the interventions. Cost savings was defined as the reduced cost of therapy associated with therapy changes minus the cost of intervention and cost avoidance was the cost avoided by eliminating the occurrence of adverse drug events (ADEs). Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of results against uncertainties.

RESULTS

A total of 852 interventions, based on 340 patients, were included. The analysis projected an annual total benefit of QAR 2,267,036 (USD 621,106) based on a negative cost-savings of QAR-175,139 (USD-47,983) and a positive cost avoidance of QAR741,898 (USD203,260) over the 3-month follow-up period. The uncertainty analysis demonstrated the robustness of outcomes, including a 100% probability of positive economic benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical pharmacist intervention was associated with an increased cost of resource use, which was overtaken by the cost avoidance generated. The pharmacy intervention, therefore, is an overall economically beneficial practice in HGH, reducing ADEs with considerable consequential positive economic savings.

Reducing hip and non-vertebral fractures in institutionalised older adults by restoring inadequate intakes of protein and calcium is cost-saving

BACKGROUND

older adults in aged care account for 30% of the population burden of hip fractures. Nutritional interventions to correct under nutrition reduce these debilitating fractures, perhaps partly by reducing falls and slowing deterioration in bone morphology.

OBJECTIVE

to determine whether a nutritional approach to fracture risk reduction in aged care homes is cost-effective.

DESIGN

cost-effectiveness was estimated based on results from a prospective 2-year cluster-randomised controlled trial and secondary data. Intervention residents consumed a total of 3.5 daily servings of milk, yoghurt and/or cheese, resulting in 1,142 mg of calcium and 69 g of protein compared with the daily intakes of 700 mg of calcium and 58 g of protein consumed by the control group.

SETTING

fifty-six aged care homes.

PARTICIPANTS

residents for 27 intervention (n = 3,313) and 29 control (n = 3,911) homes.

METHODS

ambulance, hospital, rehabilitation and residential care costs incurred by fracture were estimated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per fracture averted within a 2-year time horizon were estimated from the Australian healthcare perspective applying a 5% discount rate on costs after the first year.

RESULTS

intervention providing high-protein and high-calcium foods reduced fractures at a daily cost of AU$0.66 per resident. The base-case results showed that the intervention was cost-saving per fracture averted, with robust results in a variety of sensitivity and scenario analyses. Scaling the benefits of intervention equates to a saving of AU$66,780,000 annually in Australia and remained cost-saving up to a daily food expenditure of AU$1.07 per resident.

CONCLUSIONS

averting hip and other non-vertebral fractures in aged care residents by restoring nutritional inadequacy of protein and calcium is cost-saving.

Productivity-adjusted life years lost due to non-optimum temperatures in Brazil: A nationwide time-series study

Non-optimal temperatures are associated with premature deaths globally. However, the evidence is limited in low- and middle-income countries, and the productivity losses due to non-optimal temperatures have not been quantified. We aimed to estimate the work-related impacts and economic losses attributable to non-optimal temperatures in Brazil. We collected daily mortality data from 510 immediate regions in Brazil during 2000 and 2019. A two-stage time-series analysis was applied to evaluate the association between non-optimum temperatures and the Productivity-Adjusted Life-Years (PALYs) lost. The temperature-PALYs association was fitted for each location in the first stage and then we applied meta-analyses to obtain the national estimations. The attributable fraction (AF) of PALY lost due to ambient temperatures and the corresponding economic costs were calculated for different subgroups of the working-age population. A total of 3,629,661 of PALYs lost were attributed to non-optimal temperatures during 2000-2019 in Brazil, corresponding to 2.90 % (95 % CI: 1.82 %, 3.95 %) of the total PALYs lost. Non-optimal temperatures have led to US$104.86 billion (95 % CI: 65.95, 142.70) of economic costs related to PALYs lost and the economic burden was more substantial in males and the population aged 15-44 years. Higher risks of extreme cold temperatures were observed in the South region in Brazil while extreme hot temperatures were observed in the Central West and Northeast regions. In conclusion, non-optimal temperatures are associated with considerable labour losses as well as economic costs in Brazil. Tailored policies and adaptation strategies should be proposed to mitigate the impacts of non-optimal temperatures on the labour supply in a changing climate.

Use of Decision-Analytic Modelling to Assess the Cost-Effectiveness of Diagnostic Imaging of the Spine, Shoulder, and Knee: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Limited evidence is available on the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic imaging for back, neck, knee, and shoulder complaints. Decision analytic modelling may be an appropriate method to synthesise evidence from multiple sources, and overcomes issues with trial-based economic evaluations.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to describe the reporting of methods and objectives utilised in existing decision analytic modelling studies that assess the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic imaging for back, neck, knee, and shoulder complaints.

METHODS

Decision analytic modelling studies investigating the use of any imaging modality for people of any age with back, neck, knee, or shoulder complaints were included. No restrictions on comparators were applied, and included studies were required to estimate both costs and benefits. A systematic search (5 January 2023) of four databases was conducted with no date limits imposed. Methodological and knowledge gaps were identified through a narrative summary.

RESULTS

Eighteen studies were included. Methodological issues were identified relating to the poor reporting of methods, and measures of effectiveness did not incorporate changes in quantity and/or quality of life (cost-utility analysis in only ten of 18 studies). Included studies, particularly those investigating back or neck complaints, focused on conditions that were of low prevalence but have a serious impact on health (i.e. cervical spine trauma, cancer-related back pain).

CONCLUSIONS

Future models should pay particular attention to the identified methodological and knowledge gaps. Investment in the health technology assessment of these commonly utilised diagnostic imaging services is needed to justify the current level of utilisation and ensure that these services represent value for money.

Cost-effectiveness and Return on Investment of a Nationwide Case-Finding Program for Familial Hypercholesterolemia in Children in the Netherlands

Importance

The Netherlands is one of the few countries that has a long-term history of active screening for familial hypercholesterolemia (FH), enabling health-economic analyses.

Objective

To investigate cost-effectiveness and the return on investment (ROI) of a nationwide cascade case-finding and preventive treatment program starting with identification of FH in children and treatment, from both a societal and health care perspective.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Cascade case-finding and early preventive treatment were modeled to simulate the progression of disease and costs of 10-year-olds suspected of having heterozygous FH over a lifetime. The model consisted of 3 health states: alive without coronary heart disease (CHD), alive with CHD, and deceased. Mendelian randomization analysis was used to quantify the risk of a first CHD event as a function of age and total lifetime exposure to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Cost-effectiveness was defined as €20 000 ($21 800) per QALYs (quality-adjusted life-years) gained, using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). All future benefits and costs were discounted annually by 1.5% and 4%, respectively.

Interventions

The study compared 2 strategies: (1) cascade screening and initiation of treatment with statins in children (mean age, 10 years) and (2) no screening, later detection, and treatment.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcome of interest included cost, detection, and successful treatment of FH in terms of life-years gained and QALYs. The clinical and cost outputs for each model in the 2 scenarios (early detection and treatment and later detection and treatment) were totaled to determine the overall cost-effectiveness and ROI attributed to implementation of the Dutch FH program.

Results

In this model constructed to simulate the progression of FH in 1000 hypothetical 10-year-olds, from a health care perspective, the program would gain 2.53 QALYs per person, at an additional cost of €23 365 ($25 468) (both discounted). These equated to an ICER of €9220 ($10 050) per QALY gained. From the societal perspective, the detection and treatment program were cost saving over a lifetime compared with no cascade screening for FH. The ROI for the detection and treatment program for FH in children was €8.37 ($9.12).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study suggest that the early detection and treatment program for FH in children may offer a good value for investment, being both health and cost saving. The findings and interpretations are conditional on assumptions inherent in the health economic model.

Treatment costs for patients with Streptococcus suis infection in Northern Thailand: a hospital-based observational study of 14-year data

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus suis (S.suis) is a neglected zoonotic disease that imposes a significant economic burden on healthcare and society. To our knowledge, studies estimating the cost of illness associated with S.suis treatment are limited, and no study focuses on treatment costs and potential key drivers in Thailand. This study aimed to estimate the direct medical costs associated with S.suis treatment in Thailand and identify key drivers affecting high treatment costs from the provider's perspective.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the 14-year data from 2005-2018 of confirmed S.suis patients admitted at Chiang Mai University Hospital (CMUH) was conducted. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the data of patients' characteristics, healthcare utilization and costs. The multiple imputation with predictive mean matching strategy was employed to deal with missing Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) data. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were used to forecast costs model and identify determinants of costs associated with S.suis treatment. The modified Park test was adopted to determine the appropriate family. All costs were inflated applying the consumer price index for medical care and presented to the year 2019.

RESULTS

Among 130 S.suis patients, the average total direct medical cost was 12,4675 Thai baht (THB) (US$ 4,016), of which the majority of expenses were from the "others" category (room charges, staff services and medical devices). Infective endocarditis (IE), GCS, length of stay, and bicarbonate level were significant predictors associated with high total treatment costs. Overall, marginal increases in IE and length of stay were significantly associated with increases in the total costs (standard error) by 132,443 THB (39,638 THB) and 5,490 THB (1,715 THB), respectively. In contrast, increases in GCS and bicarbonate levels were associated with decreases in the total costs (standard error) by 13,118 THB (5,026 THB) and 7,497 THB (3,430 THB), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

IE, GCS, length of stay, and bicarbonate level were significant cost drivers associated with direct medical costs. Patients' clinical status during admission significantly impacts the outcomes and total treatment costs. Early diagnosis and timely treatment were paramount to alleviate long-term complications and high healthcare expenditures.

Enhancing the Detection and Care of Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia in Primary Care: Cost-Effectiveness and Return on Investment

BACKGROUND

Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH) is under-detected and undertreated. A general practitioner-led screening and care program for HeFH effectively identified and managed patients with HeFH. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness and the return on investment of an enhanced-care strategy for HeFH in primary care in Australia.

METHODS

We developed a multistate Markov model to estimate the outcomes and costs of a general practitioner-led detection and management strategy for HeFH in primary care compared with the standard of care in Australia. The population comprised individuals aged 50 to 80 years, of which 44% had prior cardiovascular disease. Cardiovascular risk, HeFH prevalence, treatment effects, and acute and chronic health care costs were derived from published sources. The study involved screening for HeFH using a validated data-extraction tool (TARB-Ex), followed by a consultation to improve care. The detection rate of HeFH was 16%, and 74% of the patients achieved target LDL-C (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Quality-adjusted life years, health care costs, productivity losses, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and return on investment ratio were evaluated, outcomes discounted by 5% annually, adopting a health care and a societal perspective.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime horizon, the model estimated a gain of 870 years of life lived and 1033 quality-adjusted life years when the general practitioner-led program was employed compared with standard of care. This resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AU$14 664/quality-adjusted life year gained from a health care perspective. From a societal perspective, this strategy, compared with standard of care was cost-saving, with a return on investment of AU$5.64 per dollar invested.

CONCLUSIONS

An enhanced general practitioner-led model of care for HeFH is likely to be cost-effective.

Equity in Economic Evaluations of Early Childhood Development Interventions in Low-and Middle-Income Countries: Scoping Review

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine how equity is integrated into economic evaluations of early childhood development interventions in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), and to narratively synthesize the study characteristics and findings.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review by searching three electronic databases with terms including equity, early childhood development intervention, economic evaluation, and LMICs. Interventions that aimed to improve child cognitive, physical, language, motor, or social and emotional development through health, nutrition, security and safety, responsive caregiving, and early learning interventions between conception and age 8 years were considered. Studies published in English peer-reviewed journals in the year 2000 and later were included.

RESULTS

The review included 24 cost-effectiveness studies out of 1460 identified articles based on eligibility criteria. The included studies addressed health, nutrition, social protection, and water, sanitation and hygiene interventions for child development. The common type of intervention was immunization. Mostly, equity was measured using household wealth or geographic areas, and the study findings were presented through subgroup analyses. The study settings were LMICs, but most studies were conducted by research teams from high-income countries. Overall, 63% of included studies reported that early childhood development interventions improved equity with greater intervention benefits observed in disadvantaged groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Consideration of equity in evaluations of early childhood interventions provides a more complete picture of cost-effectiveness, and can improve equity. Greater focus on promoting equity consideration, multi-sectoral interventions, and researchers in LMICs would support evidence-based interventions and policies to achieve equity in child development.

The preventable productivity burden of sleep apnea in Australia: a lifetime modelling study

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder. OSA is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and depression, among other comorbidities. We aim to determine the productivity burden of OSA in Australia using productivity-adjusted life-years (PALYs). Using life table modelling, we built a multistate Markov model to estimate the impact of moderate to severe OSA on the whole working-age Australian population in 2021 (aged 20-65 years) with OSA until retirement (aged 66 years). The model also captured the impact of OSA on CVD, T2DM, depression, and vehicle-related accidents. Data for OSA and comorbidities and Australian specific labour data, were extracted from published sources. A second cohort was then modelled to test the effect of a hypothetical intervention, assuming a 10% reduction in OSA prevalence and a 10% reduction in comorbidities in patients with OSA. The primary outcome of interest were PALYs accrued. All outcomes were discounted 5% annually. Over a lifetime, the Australian population with OSA accrued 193,713,441 years of life lived and 182,737,644 PALYs. A reduction of 10% in OSA prevalence and comorbidities would result in 45,401 extra years of life lived and 150,950 extra PALYs. This resulted in more than AU$25 billion of gained gross domestic product over the lifetime of the working population. Our study highlights the substantial burden of OSA on the Australian population and the need to tailor interventions at the population level to reduce the health and economic impacts.

Effect of Brief Counseling by Allied Health Professionals on Step Count of People With Peripheral Artery Disease: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

It is unclear how to effectively promote walking in people with peripheral artery disease (PAD).

Objective

To test whether brief counseling delivered by allied health professionals increases step count in participants with PAD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this randomized clinical trial, participants with symptomatic PAD were recruited from sites in Australia and randomly allocated 1:1 to the counseling intervention or an attention control. Data were collected from January 2015 to July 2021, and data were analyzed from March to November 2022.

Interventions

Two 1-hour face-to-face and two 15-minute telephone counseling sessions designed to increase walking.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the between-group difference in change in daily step count estimated by accelerometer recordings over 7 days at baseline and 4 months, using imputation for missing values. Other outcomes at 4, 12, and 24 months included step count, 6-minute walk distance, and disease-specific and generic measures of health-related quality of life. Risk of major adverse limb events was assessed over 24 months.

Results

Of 200 included participants, 144 (72.0%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 69.2 (9.3) years. The planned sample of 200 participants was allocated to the counseling intervention group (n = 102) or attention control group (n = 98). Overall, 198 (99.0%), 175 (87.5%), 160 (80.0%) and 143 (71.5%) had step count assessed at entry and 4, 12, and 24 months, respectively. There was no significant between-group difference in the primary outcome of change in daily step count over 4 months (mean steps, 415; 95% CI, -62 to 893; P = .07). Participants in the counseling group had significantly greater improvement in the secondary outcome of disease-specific Intermittent Claudication Questionnaire score at 4 months (3.2 points; 95% CI, 0.1-6.4; P = .04) and 12 months (4.3 points; 95% CI, 0.5-8.1; P = .03) but not at 24 months (1.2 points; 95% CI, -3.1 to 5.6; P = .57). Findings were similar for mean PAD Quality of Life Questionnaire component assessing symptoms and limitations in physical functioning (4 months: 1.5 points; 95% CI, 0.3-2.8; P = .02; 12 months: 1.8 points; 95% CI, 0.3-3.3; P = .02; 24 months: 1.3 points; 95% CI. -0.5 to 3.1; P = .16). There was no significant effect of the intervention on change in mean 6-minute walking distance (4 months: 9.3 m; 95% CI, -3.7 to 22.3; P = .16; 12 months: 13.8 m; 95% CI, -4.2 to 31.7; P = .13; 24 months: 1.2 m; 95% CI, -20.0 to 22.5; P = .91). The counseling intervention did not affect the rate of major adverse limb events over 24 months (12 [6.0%] in the intervention group vs 11 [5.5%] in the control group; P > .99).

Conclusions and Relevance

This randomized clinical trial found no significant effect of brief counseling on step count in people with PAD. Alternate interventions are needed to enable walking.

Trial Registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry Identifier: ACTRN12614000592640.

Lost Therapeutic Benefit of Delayed Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Control in Statin-Treated Patients and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Lipid-Lowering Intensification

OBJECTIVES

Attainment of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) therapeutic goals in statin-treated patients remains suboptimal. We quantified the health economic impact of delayed lipid-lowering intensification from an Australian healthcare and societal perspective.

METHODS

A lifetime Markov cohort model (n = 1000) estimating the impact on coronary heart disease (CHD) of intensifying lipid-lowering treatment in statin-treated patients with uncontrolled LDL-C, at moderate to high risk of CHD with no delay or after a 5-year delay, compared with standard of care (no intensification), starting at age 40 years. Intensification was tested with high-intensity statins or statins + ezetimibe. LDL-C levels were extracted from a primary care cohort. CHD risk was estimated using the pooled cohort equation. The effect of cumulative exposure to LDL-C on CHD risk was derived from Mendelian randomization data. Outcomes included CHD events, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), healthcare and productivity costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). All outcomes were discounted annually by 5%.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime horizon, compared with standard of care, achieving LDL-C control with no delay with high-intensity statins prevented 29 CHD events and yielded 30 extra QALYs (ICERs AU$13 205/QALY) versus 22 CHD events and 16 QALYs (ICER AU$20 270/QALY) with a 5-year delay. For statins + ezetimibe, no delay prevented 53 CHD events and gave 45 extra QALYs (ICER AU$37 271/QALY) versus 40 CHD events and 29 QALYs (ICER of AU$44 218/QALY) after a 5-year delay.

CONCLUSIONS

Delaying attainment of LDL-C goals translates into lost therapeutic benefit and a waste of resources. Urgent policies are needed to improve LDL-C goal attainment in statin-treated patients.

Projecting the incidence and costs of major cardiovascular and kidney complications of type 2 diabetes with widespread SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA use: a cost-effectiveness analysis

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Whether sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) are cost-effective based solely on their cardiovascular and kidney benefits is unknown. We projected the health and economic outcomes due to myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among people with type 2 diabetes, with and without CVD, under scenarios of widespread use of these drugs.

METHODS

We designed a microsimulation model using real-world data that captured CVD and ESKD morbidity and mortality from 2020 to 2040. The populations and transition probabilities were derived by linking the Australian Diabetes Registry (1.1 million people with type 2 diabetes) to hospital admissions databases, the National Death Index and the ESKD Registry using data from 2010 to 2019. We modelled four interventions: increase in use of SGLT2is or GLP-1 RAs to 75% of the total population with type 2 diabetes, and increase in use of SGLT2is or GLP-1 RAs to 75% of the secondary prevention population (i.e. people with type 2 diabetes and prior CVD). All interventions were compared with current use of SGLT2is (20% of the total population) and GLP-1 RAs (5% of the total population). Outcomes of interest included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total costs (from the Australian public healthcare perspective) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We applied 5% annual discounting for health economic outcomes. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at AU$28,000 per QALY gained.

RESULTS

The numbers of QALYs gained from 2020 to 2040 with increased SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA use in the total population (n=1.1 million in 2020; n=1.5 million in 2040) were 176,446 and 200,932, respectively, compared with current use. Net cost differences were AU$4.2 billion for SGLT2is and AU$20.2 billion for GLP-1 RAs, and the ICERs were AU$23,717 and AU$100,705 per QALY gained, respectively. In the secondary prevention population, the ICERs were AU$8878 for SGLT2is and AU$79,742 for GLP-1 RAs.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

At current prices, use of SGLT2is, but not GLP-1 RAs, would be cost-effective when considering only their cardiovascular and kidney disease benefits for people with type 2 diabetes.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of implementing a lifestyle intervention during pregnancy to reduce the incidence of gestational diabetes and type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to determine the long-term cost-effectiveness and return on investment of implementing a structured lifestyle intervention to reduce excessive gestational weight gain and associated incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

A decision-analytic Markov model was used to compare the health and cost-effectiveness outcomes for (1) a structured lifestyle intervention during pregnancy to prevent GDM and subsequent type 2 diabetes; and (2) current usual antenatal care. Life table modelling was used to capture type 2 diabetes morbidity, mortality and quality-adjusted life years over a lifetime horizon for all women giving birth in Australia. Costs incorporated both healthcare and societal perspectives. The intervention effect was derived from published meta-analyses. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to capture the impact of uncertainty in the model.

RESULTS

The model projected a 10% reduction in the number of women subsequently diagnosed with type 2 diabetes through implementation of the lifestyle intervention compared with current usual care. The total net incremental cost of intervention was approximately AU$70 million, and the cost savings from the reduction in costs of antenatal care for GDM, birth complications and type 2 diabetes management were approximately AU$85 million. The intervention was dominant (cost-saving) compared with usual care from a healthcare perspective, and returned AU$1.22 (95% CI 0.53, 2.13) per dollar invested. The results were robust to sensitivity analysis, and remained cost-saving or highly cost-effective in each of the scenarios explored.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This study demonstrates significant cost savings from implementation of a structured lifestyle intervention during pregnancy, due to a reduction in adverse health outcomes for women during both the perinatal period and over their lifetime.

Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Surgical and Neurostimulation Treatments for Drug-Resistant Epilepsy in Adults

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Surgical and neurostimulator treatments are effective for reducing seizure burden in selected individuals living with drug resistant epilepsy (DRE). We aimed to determine the presence and key model determinants for cost-effectiveness of these interventions, compared to medical management alone, to assist with decisions about resource allocation.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted on June 1, 2022, using Medline, Embase, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis database. Included studies were economic evaluations in adult DRE cohorts; comparing surgical and neurostimulator treatments (vagus nerve stimulation (VNS), responsive neurostimulation (RNS), and deep brain stimulation (DBS)) vs medical management alone; and reporting cost-benefit analysis, cost-utility, or cost-effectiveness. Exclusion criteria were studies with pediatric cohorts and those published in a language other than English. Three independent reviewers screened, extracted, and assessed data against the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist, and a fourth reviewer adjudicated discrepancies.

RESULTS

Ten studies met inclusion criteria. Seven studies evaluated epilepsy surgery, and three evaluated neurostimulation treatments. All relevant studies established that epilepsy surgery is a cost-effective intervention compared to medical management alone, with regards to quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and seizure freedom at 2- and 5 years. All relevant studies found neurostimulator treatments to be potentially cost-effective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), with lower ICER indicating greater cost-effectiveness, was reported for nine studies, and varied between GBP £3,013 and US $61,333. Cost adaptation revealed ICERs from US $170 to US $121,726. Key model determinants included, but were not limited to, improved surgical outcomes and quality of life, reduced surgical and presurgical evaluation costs, higher rates of surgical eligibility after referral and evaluation, epilepsy subtype, less expensive neurostimulator devices with improved longevity, and cost analysis strategy used in the analysis.

DISCUSSION

There is consistent evidence that epilepsy surgery is a cost-effective treatment for eligible candidates with DRE. Limited evidence suggests that VNS, RNS, and DBS may be cost-effective therapies for DRE, although more health economic evaluations alongside prospective clinical trials are needed to validate these findings.

Economic Evaluation of the Community Benefit of the Australian Pregnancy Register of Antiseizure Medications

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The Raoul Wallenberg Australian Pregnancy Register (APR) was established to collect, analyze, and publish data on the risks to babies exposed to antiseizure medications (ASMs) and to facilitate quality improvements in management care over time. It is one of the seveal prospective observational pregnancy registers of ASMs that has been established around the world. Although the APR and other registries have contributed to knowledge gain that has been applied to decrease adverse pregnancy outcomes, their cost-effectiveness remains unknown. Here, we aimed to evaluate the economic impacts of the APR from both societal and health care system perspectives.

METHODS

Using decision analytic modeling, we estimated the effectiveness (prevention of adverse pregnancy outcomes) and costs (costs of adverse pregnancy outcomes and the register itself) of the APR over a 20-year time horizon (2000-2019). The comparator was set as the adverse pregnancy outcomes collected by the APR between 1998 and 2002 (i.e., no APR derived improvements in care). In the scenario analysis, we conservatively assumed a 2.5% and 5% contribution of the APR to the savings in health care and societal costs. Adverse pregnancy outcomes included stillbirth, birth defects, and induced abortion. All cost data were derived from published sources. Health and economic outcomes were extrapolated to the total target Australian epilepsy population. The primary outcomes of interest were the return of investment (ROI) for the APR and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for cost per adverse outcome avoided.

RESULTS

Over the 20-year time horizon, the ROI from the APR from a societal perspective was Australian dollars (AUD) 2,250 (i.e., every dollar spent on the program resulted in a return of AUD2,250). Over this time, it was estimated that 9,609 adverse pregnancy outcomes were avoided, and health care and societal costs were reduced by AUD 191 million and AUD 9.0 billion, respectively. Hence, from a health economic point of view, the APR was dominant, providing cost saving ICERs from both perspectives.

DISCUSSION

Following its inception 20+ years ago, the APR has represented excellent value for investment for Australia, being also health-saving and cost saving from a societal and a health care perspective. With the growing number of marketed ASMs, the APR is expected to continue to have a major impact in the foreseeable future.

Loss of Productivity-Adjusted Life-Years in Working-Age Australians Due to Knee Osteoarthritis: A Life-Table Modeling Approach

OBJECTIVE

Productivity-adjusted life-years (PALYs) offers a novel approach for quantifying the productivity burden of chronic conditions at the population level over the working lifespan. This study was undertaken to estimate the productivity burden of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) among working-age Australians, defined as lost PALYs and lost gross domestic product (GDP).

METHODS

A static life-table model was constructed to simulate the experiences of working Australians (between the ages of 15-64 years) with KOA and those without KOA, with follow-up to 65 years (retirement age), a 1-year cycle length, and an annual discount rate of 5%. KOA prevalence data were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study. Demographic and mortality data were sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Health utilities and productivity indices were derived from published sources. Population-level losses in years of life, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and PALYs attributable to KOA were estimated by comparing estimates in the KOA cohort to the no KOA cohort.

RESULTS

In 2019, a total of 913,539 working-age Australians were estimated to have KOA, with an overall prevalence of 5.5% (4.5% in men and 6.5% in women). By retirement age, KOA was associated with 39,602 excess deaths, 125,651 years of life lost, 1,938,059 QALYs lost, and 1,943,287 PALYs lost. The economic impact of lost productivity due to KOA amounted to 424 billion Australian dollars in lost GDP.

CONCLUSION

Our modeling demonstrates a significant economic burden of KOA among the working Australian population, with marked productivity loss. Our findings highlight the need for public health funding and scalable population-level strategies for effective KOA prevention and support to maintain productive working.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Tobacco Control Strategies in Indonesia

OBJECTIVES

In Indonesia, tobacco smoking is a significant public health problem that continues to grow, with a prevalence among the highest worldwide. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of government-funded varenicline, smoking bans in public places, and an additional 10% tobacco tax in Indonesia.

METHODS

Markov modeling of Indonesians aged 15 to 84 years was undertaken, with simulated follow-up until age 85 years. Data on demographics, smoking prevalence, and mortality were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Data regarding the efficacy and costs of the 3 interventions were gathered from published sources. Costs and benefits accrued beyond one year were discounted at 3% per annum. The year value of costing data was 2020.

RESULTS

Government-funded varenicline, smoking bans in public places, and an additional 10% tobacco tax were predicted to save 5.5 million, 1.6 million, and 1.7 million years of life, respectively (all discounted). In terms of quality-adjusted life-years, 3 tobacco interventions were predicted to gain 11.9 million, 3.47 million, and 3.78 million in quality-adjusted life-years, respectively. The savings in smoking-related healthcare costs amounted to US $313.8 billion, US $97.5 billion, and US $106 billion, respectively. Hence, from the perspective of the healthcare system, all 3 interventions were cost saving (dominant).

CONCLUSIONS

In Indonesia, tobacco control measures are likely to be highly cost-effective and even cost saving from the healthcare system's perspective. These cost savings can be balanced against economic losses that would result from the impact on the sizable Indonesian tobacco industry.

Integrating the Biology of Cardiovascular Disease into the Epidemiology of Economic Decision Modelling via Mendelian Randomisation

Health economic analyses are essential for health services research, providing decision-makers and payers with evidence about the value of interventions relative to their opportunity cost. However, many health economic approaches are still limited, especially regarding the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this article, we discuss some limitations to current health economic models and then outline an approach to address these via the incorporation of genomics into the design of health economic models for CVD. We propose that when a randomised clinical trial is not possible or practical, health economic models for primary prevention of CVD can be based on Mendelian randomisation analyses, a technique to assess causality in observational data. We discuss the advantages of this approach, such as integrating well-known disease biology into health economic models and how this may overcome current statistical approaches to assessing the benefits of interventions. We argue that this approach may provide the economic argument for integrating genomics into clinical practice and the efficient targeting of newer therapeutics, transforming our approach to the primary prevention of CVD, thereby moving from reactive to preventive healthcare. We end by discussing some limitations and potential pitfalls of this approach.

Dutch Nationwide Implementation Program for familial hypercholesterolemia case finding in children: a cost-effectiveness and return on investment analysis

Background

The Netherlands is one of the few countries in the world that actively screen for familial hypercholesterolemia (FH).

Objectives

We investigated the return on investment (ROI) and cost-effectiveness of the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and preventive treatment in children compared to later detection and treatment from both a societal and healthcare perspective in the Netherlands.

Methods

Cascade case finding and early preventive treatment were modelled to simulate the progression of disease and costs of ten-year-olds suspected of having heterozygous FH (HeFH) over a lifetime. The model consisted of three health states: alive without coronary heart disease (CHD), alive with CHD, and dead. The decision was to compare the nationwide implementation program for FH cascade case-finding in children and immediate treatment with statins compared to “usual care” later detection and treatment. The prevalence of HeFH in this target population was 51.2% as per the Dutch Health Program for FH case-finding, and the sensitivity and specificity of testing was 100%. Contemporary Mendelian Randomisation Analysis data was used to quantify the risk of a first coronary heart disease event as a function of age and total lifetime exposure to low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol. Costs and outcome were sourced from the Dutch data and other published sources. ROI for the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and cost-effectiveness analyses using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) (cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained), compared with current usual care were the main outcomes of interest. All future benefits and costs were discounted annually by 1.5% and 4% respectively.

Results

Over the lifetime horizon, the ROI for the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding was €16.52 (i.e. every euro spent on the program resulted in a return of €16.52). From the societal perspective, the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and early treatment with statins was the dominant strategy (health improvement and cost saving) compared to usual care. From a healthcare perspective, the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and early treatment with statins would gain 2.64 QALYs per person, at an additional cost of €7,178 (both discounted). These equated to an ICER of €2,668 per QALY gained.

Conclusions

From the societal perspective, the the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding represented excellent value for investment for Netherlands, being not only health saving but also cost saving form a societal perspective and cost effective from a healthcare perspective.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

The hospitalisations for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, and emergency department presentations and economic burden of bushfires in Australia between 2021 and 2030: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

The health and environmental impacts of bushfires results in substantial economic costs to society. The present analysis sought to estimate the burden of bushfires in Australia over ten years from 2021 to 2030 inclusive.

METHODS

A dynamic model with yearly cycles was constructed to simulate follow-up of the entire Australian population from 2021 to 2030, capturing deaths and years of life lived. Estimated numbers of bushfire-related-deaths, costs of related-hospitalisations, and broader economic costs were derived from published sources. A 5% annual discount rate was applied to all costs incurred and life years lived from 2022 onwards.

RESULTS

Over the ten years from 2021 to 2030, the modelled analysis predicted that 2418 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2412 - 2422] lives would be lost to bushfires, as well as 8590 [95% CI 8573 - 8606] years of life lost (discounted). Healthcare costs arising from deaths for smoke-related conditions, hospitalisations amounted to AUD $110 million [95% CI 91-129 million] (discounted). The impact on gross domestic product (GDP) totalled AUD $17.2 billion. A hypothetical intervention that reduces the impact of bushfires by 10% would save $11 million in healthcare costs and $1.7 billion in GDP.

CONCLUSIONS

The health and economic burden of bushfires in Australia looms large during 2021 and 2030. This underscores the importance of actions to mitigate bushfire risk. The findings are useful for the future design and delivery and help policy makers to make informed decisions about investment in strategies to reduce the incidence and severity of future bushfires.

Personal healthcare costs borne by younger people living with arthritis in Australia: An exploratory observational study

Arthritis is a long-term musculoskeletal disease, requiring ongoing management. However, the financial burden of managing arthritis is under-explored and is yet to be quantified from the perspective of individuals with the condition. Using an exploratory observational design, this study aimed to quantify arthritis-related costs borne by a sample of working-age adults aged 18-50 years who responded to the study advertisement. Participants completed a weekly cost diary for 6 weeks, detailing their personal non-reimbursed (out-of-pocket) arthritis-related costs. Financial distress was measured using the InCharge Financial Distress/Financial Well-Being Scale. Costs data were analysed descriptively. Mann-Whitney U tests were used to examine relationships between residential location or employment status and out-of-pocket costs. Linear regression and Spearman's rho were used to estimate relationships between age or years since diagnosis and out-of-pocket costs, and between out-of-pocket costs and financial distress respectively. Sixteen adults (median age 40 years, 100% female) with a range of arthritis conditions (median (IQR): 8 (7.5) years since diagnosis) including rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, and ankylosing spondylitis completed the six-week cost diary. All participants reported out-of-pocket expenditure related to arthritis. The median per-person expenditure across the 6 weeks was AUD 1635. The highest reported costs per participant across the 6 weeks were for medical expenses (median AUD 197) and allied health appointments (median AUD 190). In total, the cohort spent AUD 15,272 across the study period. Perceived financial distress was high: median (IQR) financial distress 7 (2.25) on a 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest) scale. Positive relationships between age and costs, and between costs and financial distress were identified. These findings help us understand fiscal expenditure and related distress relevant to younger individuals with arthritis, and can be used to raise awareness of their financial concerns.

Projected Return on Investment From Implementation of a Lifestyle Intervention to Reduce Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes

IMPORTANCE

Structured antenatal diet and physical activity interventions have been shown to be associated with reduced adverse pregnancy outcomes and recommended to be routinely offered to all pregnant women. The health cost implications of population-level implementation are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the budget impact associated with integrating structured diet and physical activity interventions into routine antenatal care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This economic evaluation was conducted from the perspective of Australian health funders. An open-source decision-tree model was constructed to compare the projected budget outcomes of implementing lifestyle intervention vs usual care. Scenario, deterministic, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were completed. The study setting was Australian health services, and the study population was all Australian women projected to give birth in the years 2022 to 2026 (approximately 330 000 per year).

INTERVENTIONS

Structured diet and physical activity intervention provided by trained health professionals, integrated into routine antenatal care. Comparator was usual care, which currently in Australia does not include routine structured lifestyle interventions.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Return on investment (ROI) ratio for lifestyle intervention (cost of intervention divided by cost savings attributable to reduced maternal and infant adverse events) from the perspective of Australian health care funders. Adverse events were obtained from a published meta-analysis and population data. Costs were estimated from aggregate trial data and clinical pathways and valued at the year incurred.

RESULTS

Intervention offered an ROI ratio of 4.75 over the 5-year program; hence every Australian dollar spent on implementation produced an estimated return of A$4.75. The projected total 5-year intervention cost was A$205 million ($151 million), with cost offsets (from reduced incidence of adverse pregnancy outcomes) of A$1022 million ($755 million), and health budget savings of A$807 million (95% CI, A$129 million to A$1639 million) ($596 million [95% CI, $95 million to $1211 million]); 93.3% of the 10 000 iterations were within cost saving, and results were robust to scenario and sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This economic evaluation found that providing access to structured diet and physical activity lifestyle interventions for all pregnant Australian women was estimated to provide strong return on investment for health funders. The open-source model developed can be used by other jurisdictions and health services to explore cost implications of implementation within their patient population.