Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by glaucoma: A meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

OBJECTIVES

To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by glaucoma and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and grey literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends in number of people with vision loss due to glaucoma. Moderate or severe vision loss (MSVI) was defined as visual acuity of 6/60 or better but <6/18 (moderate) and visual acuity of 3/60 or better but <6/60 (severe vision loss). Blindness was defined as presenting visual acuity <3/60.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2020, 3.61 million people were blind and nearly 4.14 million were visually impaired by glaucoma. Glaucoma accounted for 8.39% (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]: 6.54, 10.29) of all blindness and 1.41% (95% UI: 1.10, 1.75) of all MSVI. Regionally, the highest proportion of blindness relating to glaucoma was found in high-income countries (26.12% [95% UI: 20.72, 32.09]), while the region with the highest age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness and MSVI was Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2020, global age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness among adults ≥50 years decreased by 26.06% among males (95% UI: 25.87, 26.24), and by 21.75% among females (95% UI: 21.54, 21.96), while MSVI due to glaucoma increased by 3.7% among males (95% UI: 3.42, 3.98), and by 7.3% in females (95% UI: 7.01, 7.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Within the last two decades, glaucoma has remained a major cause of blindness globally and regionally.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effectiveness of single intra-bursal injection of platelet-rich plasma against corticosteroid under ultrasonography guidance for shoulder impingement syndrome: a randomized clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of intra-bursal injection of single-dose platelet-rich plasma (PRP) against corticosteroids under ultrasonography guidance in shoulder impingement syndrome (SIS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This single-blind randomized controlled trial was conducted on 60 participants with a clinical diagnosis of SIS from a selected orthopedic clinic. Thirty participants in each arm were given a single dose of either PRP or triamcinolone acetonide into the subacromial sub-deltoid bursa (SASD) under ultrasonography guidance. The outcome variables assessed were the severity score of pain and the degree of shoulder abduction. Post-treatment follow-up was done in 1 week, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year.

RESULTS

At 1 week, the triamcinolone arm showed a statistically significant reduction of pain (p = 0.039) when compared to PRP. In the long term, PRP showed statistically significant improvement in shoulder abduction, compared to the triamcinolone injection (p = 0.012).

CONCLUSION

PRP and triamcinolone in the SASD bursa could be considered as safe treatment options for SIS under ultrasonography guidance. While triamcinolone was effective in short-term pain reduction, PRP was effective in long-term improvement in shoulder abduction.

Effectiveness of an educational intervention to promote psychosocial well-being of school-going adolescents in Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND

One-fifth of the Sri Lankan population consists of adolescents, with 71% of them schooling. An extreme need exists in the country for the introduction of evidence-based interventions for the psychosocial well-being of adolescents. The present study assessed the effectiveness of an educational intervention to promote the psychosocial well-being of school-going adolescents in grade nine in Western Province, Sri Lanka.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A quasi-experimental study was conducted among grade nine students in Western Province in 2019. Panadura Medical Officer of Health (MOH) area was selected as the interventional area (IA), and Kelaniya MOH area was identified as the control area (CA). Teachers at schools in the IA received training on psychosocial health promotion of adolescents. They delivered the activity-based educational intervention package to the grade nine students as 20-min classroom sessions for three months. Pre- and post-intervention assessments of attitudes and practices related to the psychosocial well-being of adolescents were conducted using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Categorical data were compared using Chi-Square or Fisher's exact test. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to determine the difference between the medians of the pre-and post-intervention scores on attitude and practices for psychosocial well-being.

RESULTS

A total of 1040 grade nine students were enrolled. There was a statistically significant increase in median score on attitudes [81.8 (IQR:75.5-85.5) to 82.3(IQR:78.6-87.2] and practices [81.7(IQR: 76.1-85.7) to 83.1(IQR: 79.1-86.9)] in the IA while there was no significant difference in the CA. The proportion of bullied adolescents in the past 30 days reduced significantly from 14.8% (n = 38) to 7.9% (n = 20) in IA(p = .03), whereas there was a slight reduction from 17.1% (n = 44) to 11.3% (n = 26) in CA (p = .17).

CONCLUSIONS

The present psychosocial intervention is effective in improving the psychosocial well-being of school adolescents, though long-term effectiveness was not assessed. It is recommended to utilise study findings in deciding to introduce the present intervention to basic and in-service teacher training packages and school curricula with necessary modifications.

Global, regional, and national burden of spinal cord injury, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a major cause of health loss due to premature mortality and long-term disability. We aimed to report on the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for SCI from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

Using GBD 2019 data pooled in DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, we systematically derived numbers and age-standardised rate changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI from 1990 to 2019 for the whole world, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We report trends based on age, sex, year, cause of injury, and level of injury.

FINDINGS

Globally, 20·6 million (95% UI 18·9 to 23·6) individuals were living with SCI in 2019. The incidence of SCI was 0·9 million (0·7 to 1·2) cases with an estimated 6·2 million (4·5 to 8·2) YLDs. SCI rates increased substantially from 1990 to 2019 for global prevalence (81·5%, 74·2 to 87·1), incidence (52·7%, 30·3 to 69·8), and YLDs (65·4%, 56·3 to 76·0). However, global age-standardised rates per 100 000 population showed small changes in prevalence (5·8%, 2·6 to 9·5), incidence (-6·1%, -17·2 to 1·5), and YLDs (-1·5%, -5·5 to 3·2). Data for 2019 shows that the incidence of SCI increases sharply until age 15-19 years, where it remains reasonably constant until 85 years of age and older. By contrast, prevalence and YLDs showed similar patterns to each other, with one peak at around age 45-54 years. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of SCI have consistently been higher in men than in women globally, with a slight and steady increase for both men and women from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, SCI at neck level was more common than SCI below neck level in terms of incidence (492 thousand [354 to 675] vs 417 thousand [290 to 585]), prevalence (10·8 million [9·5 to 13·9] vs 9·7 million [9·2 to 10·4]), and YLDs (4·2 million [3·0 to 5·8] vs 1·9 million [1·3 to 2·5]). Falls (477 thousand [327 to 683] cases) and road injuries (230 thousand [122 to 389] cases) were the two leading causes of SCI globally in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI changed only slightly, absolute counts increased substantially from 1990 to 2019. Geographical heterogeneity in demographic, spatial, and temporal patterns of SCI, at both the national and regional levels, should be considered by policy makers aiming to reduce the burden of SCI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Out-of-Pocket Expenditure for Antenatal Care Amid Free Health Care Provision: Evidence From a Large Pregnancy Cohort in Rural Sri Lanka

INTRODUCTION

Global evidence suggests that high out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure negatively affects health service utilization and creates an economic burden on households during pregnancy. This study aimed to estimate the magnitude and associated factors of OOP expenditure for antenatal care (ANC) in a rural Sri Lankan setting by following up with a large pregnancy cohort (The Rajarata Pregnancy Cohort [RaPCo]) in Anuradhapura District, Sri Lanka.

METHODS

Data were collected from July 2019 to May 2020. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect socioeconomic data and OOP expenditures in the first trimester. Self-administered questionnaires were used monthly to collect OOP expenditures in the second and third trimesters. In-depth financial information of 1,558 pregnant women was analyzed using descriptive statistics, nonparametric statistics, and a multiple linear regression model.

RESULTS

The majority of participants used both government and private health facilities for ANC. The mean (standard deviation [SD]) OOP expenditure per ANC visit was US$4.18 (US$4.19), and the mean (SD) OOP expenditure for total ANC was US$57.74 (US$80.96). Pregnant women who used only free government health services also spent 28% and 14% of OOP expenditure on medicines and laboratory investigations. Household income (P<.001), household expenditure (P<.1), used health care mode (P<.05), maternal morbidities (P<.05), and the number of previous pregnancies (P<.1) were the statistically significant independent predictors of OOP expenditure. OOP expenditure per visit for ANC equals half of the daily household expenditure.

CONCLUSION

Despite having freely available government health facilities, most pregnant women tend to use both government and private health facilities and incur higher OOP expenditure. Free government health care users also incur a direct medical OOP expenditure for medicines and laboratory investigations. Monthly household income, expenditure, used health care mode, maternal morbidities, and the number of previous pregnancies are independent predictors of OOP expenditure.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating mortality and disability in Peru before the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of the Disease Study 2019

Background

Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance.

Methods

Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region.

Results

The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region.

Conclusion

In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability.

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on health service utilisation and household economy of pregnant and postpartum women: a cross-sectional study from rural Sri Lanka

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to describe how household economies and health service utilisation of pregnant and postpartum women were affected during the pandemic.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study.

SETTING

This study was conducted in the Anuradhapura district, Sri Lanka.

PARTICIPANTS

The study participants were 1460 pregnant and postpartum women recruited for the Rajarata Pregnancy Cohort during the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Household economic (income, poverty, nutritional and health expenditures) and health service utilisation details during the COVID-19 pandemic were gathered through telephone interviews. Sociodemographic and economic data were obtained from the cohort baseline and analysed with descriptive and non-parametric analysis.

RESULTS

Out of the 1460 women in the sample, 55.3% (n=807) were pregnant and 44.7% (n=653) were postpartum women. Of the total sample, 1172 (80.3%) women participated in the economic component. The monthly household income (median (IQR)=212.39 (159.29-265.49)) reduced (median (IQR)=159.29 (106.20-212.39)) in 50.5% (n=592) families during the pandemic (Z=-8.555, p<0.001). Only 10.3% (n=61) of affected families had received financial assistance from the government, which was only 46.4% of the affected income. The nutritional expenditure of pregnant women was reduced (Z=-2.023, p=0.043) by 6.7%. During the pandemic, 103 (8.8%) families with pregnant or postpartum women were pushed into poverty, and families who were pushed into poverty did not receive any financial assistance. The majority of women (n=1096, 83.3%) were satisfied with the free public health services provided by the public health midwife during the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

During the early stages of the pandemic, healthcare utilisation of pregnant women was minimally affected. Even before the country's current economic crisis, the household economies of pregnant women in rural Sri Lanka were severely affected, pushing families into poverty due to the pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 and the aftermath on pregnant women will have many consequences if the policies and strategies are not revised to address this issue.

'We do not rush to the hospital for ordinary wounds (suḷu tuvāla)': A qualitative study on the early clinical manifestations of cutaneous leishmaniasis and associated health behaviours in rural Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of early clinical manifestations, people's perceptions and behaviours is crucial in preventing and controlling neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Cutaneous leishmaniasis is an NTD that causes skin lesions and affects millions worldwide. Delayed healthcare-seeking behaviour leading to prolonged treatment periods and complications is rife among people with cutaneous leishmaniasis. This study examined the patient-reported early clinical manifestations of cutaneous leishmaniasis, local interpretations and associated health behaviours within the socio-cultural context of rural Sri Lanka.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We conducted a qualitative study among people with cutaneous leishmaniasis in three rural communities in the Anuradhapura district, Sri Lanka. Participants' experiences were explored through a study-bespoke participant experience reflection journal and in-depth interviews. We analysed the data using a narrative-thematic approach. The study included 30 people with cutaneous leishmaniasis (12 females and 18 males) aged between 18 and 75 years. We identified four major themes during the analysis: 1) patient-reported early clinical manifestations of cutaneous leishmaniasis, 2) local interpretations of the early skin lesion(s), 3) associated actions and behaviours, and 4) the time gap between the initial notice of symptoms and seeking healthcare for cutaneous leishmaniasis. Early clinical manifestations differed among the participants, while the majority misinterpreted them as a mosquito/ant bite, pimple, wart, eczema, macule, or worm infestation. Participants undertook different context-specific self-management actions to cure cutaneous leishmaniasis. We identified an average time gap between the notice of symptoms and the first visit to the healthcare facility ranging from three to twelve months.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Diverse early clinical manifestations, local interpretations, and associated behaviours of people with cutaneous leishmaniasis have led to a substantial delay in healthcare-seeking. The study sheds light on the importance of understanding the manifestations of NTDs within the social context. Our findings will inform designing context-specific health interventions to improve awareness and healthcare-seeking in cutaneous leishmaniasis in rural settings.

Hypertrophied posterior longitudinal ligament and ligamentum flavum causing myelopathy: a case report and literature review

INTRODUCTION

The occurrence of concurrent hypertrophied posterior longitudinal ligament (HPLL) and hypertrophied ligamentum flavum (HLF) in the thoracic spine is a very rare presentation. This case report describes a young female who developed thoracic myelopathy secondary to a combination of both thoracic HPLL and HLF.

CASE PRESENTATION

A 30-year-old previously well female was referred for an MRI scan of the thoraco-lumbar spine. She was having lower limb weakness and difficulty in walking, which had progressed over 3 months. On examination, she was found to have spastic lower limbs with associated motor weakness. Her biochemical investigations were unremarkable. The MRI scan showed HPLL, which was uniformly hypointense on T2W images and was isointense on T1W images. The hypertrophied segment was extending from T2 level to T7 level. Similarly, the ligamentum flavum was hypertrophied from T1 level to T8 level. The thoracic spinal cord was seen compressed between the hypertrophied ligaments. The compressed cord showed central hyperintense signal pattern in T2W images. CT scan of the thoracic spine did not show any calcifications or ossifications along the ligaments. Patient underwent posterior decompressive surgery and she had an uneventful recovery.

DISCUSSION

Although few cases of HPLL and HLF were reported in older patients in literature, both these conditions were found in this patient at a younger age. HPLL and HLF are thought to be precursors of ossification of these ligaments and these patients need long-term follow-up.

Serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in early pregnancy and changes during the pregnancy

Renal functions in pregnancy undergo rapid changes, and the thresholds for normal values are a major research gap and are still debatable. The lack of prospective population-based studies with early pregnancy recruitment hampered the decision-making process on the best thresholds to be used in clinical practice. We present the serum creatinine (sCr) and sCr-based estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) in early pregnancy with changes over the gestational period in a large prospective, community-based cohort, the Rajarata Pregnancy Cohort (RaPCo). We carried out a community-based prospective cohort study with 2,259 healthy pregnant women with a gestation period of less than 13 weeks and without pre-existing medical conditions. Gestational period-specific sCr and sCr-based eGFR were calculated for different age strata, and the participants were followed up until the second trimester. Renal functions of pregnant women were compared with 2.012 nonpregnant women from the same geographical area. The mean (SD) sCr of the 2,012 nonpregnant women was 62.8(12.4) μmol/L, with the 97.5th percentile of 89.0 μmol/L. Among the pregnant women, mean (SD) sCr was 55.1(8.3), 52.7(8.1), 51.1(9.1), 47.1(7.2), and 49.3 (9.9), while the 97.5th percentile for sCr was 72.4, 69.1, 70.0, 63.6, and 66.0 μmol/L respectively during the 4-7, 8-9, 10-12, 24-27 and 28-30 weeks of gestation. The average sCr value was 84.7% and 76.4% of the nonpregnant group, respectively, in the first and second trimesters. The mean eGFR was 123.4 (10.7) mL/min/1.73 m2 in the first trimester and increased up to 129.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the 24th week of gestation. The analysis of cohort data confirmed a significant reduction in sCr with advancing pregnancy (p<0 .001). This study provides thresholds for renal functions in pregnancy to be used in clinical practice. Clinical validation of the proposed thresholds needs to be evaluated with pregnancy and newborn outcomes.

The magnitude of out-of-pocket expenditure for antenatal care in low and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Owing to the lack of compiled global evidence on out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) for antenatal care (ANC), this systematic review and meta-analysis estimated the magnitude of OOPE for ANC in low and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

An electronic search was conducted using 10 databases and a hand search of the eligible studies' reference lists. Studies on OOPE for ANC in LMICs, published in English without time restriction, were included. The comparability of OOPE values was improved using inflation and exchange rate adjustment to the year 2019. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed to generate pooled estimates.

RESULTS

Among the 9766 articles retrieved, 32 were selected. Only 13/137 (9.5%) countries reported evidence of OOPE during pregnancy in LMICs. The majority of the studies (n = 2779.4%) were from lower-middle-income settings. Ten (31.3%) studies from African region, 21 (65.6%) studies from South-East-Asian region, 1 (3.1%) study from region of Americas and none from the other regions were included. The average OOPE for ANC and single ANC visit ranged from United States Dollar (USD) 2.41 to USD 654.32 in LMICs, the lowest in Tanzania and the highest in India. The pooled OOPEs were USD 63.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 51.93-74.65) and USD 12.93 (95%CI = 4.54-21.31) for ANC and single ANC visit in LMICs, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The study revealed that the pooled estimates of OOPE for ANC throughout pregnancy and per visit were high in some countries, with a wide variability observed across countries. There was a lack of evidence on OOPE for ANC from many LMICs, and filling the evidence gap in LMICs is highlighted.

Quality of life among community-dwelling older adults: evidence from a large population-based study in rural Sri Lanka

PURPOSE

Against the backdrop of the ever-increasing aging population in Sri Lanka and the scarcity of local evidence on quality of life (QoL) among rural elderly, this study was conducted to assess the QoL of the community-dwelling older adults in rural Sri Lanka.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted among community-dwelling older adults (60-74 years) in a selected rural setting in Sri Lanka. K-means cluster analysis was used to stratify participants into 'low' and 'high' levels of QoL and then significant associations between these clusters and underlying socio-demographic and self-reported health related factors were estimated using bivariate and subsequent multivariable binary logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The final sample consisted of 3573 community-dwelling older adults (response rate 97.8%). The mean (SD) age of the sample was 66.7 (4.3) years and the majority were females (n = 2130, 59.6%). Amongst the six QoL domains assessed (physical, psychological, social, functional, environmental and spiritual domains), the highest and the lowest mean (SD) scores were reported for the functional [63.4 (16.9)] and the physical [52.9 (15.0)] domains, respectively. Aged 70 years or more, either unmarried/widowed/divorced, lower educational levels and having chronic illnesses were statistically significant associations of QoL (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The QoL among community-dwelling older adults in rural Sri Lanka is moderate. As having social support, absence of chronic diseases and good education level were found to be associated with better QoL, strengthening community-based interventions to improve these aspects by incorporating the evidence generated by other longitudinal studies is recommended.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

The accuracy of nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) in detecting human intestinal nematode infections: A protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Human intestinal nematode infections are a global public health issue as they can result in considerable morbidity in infected individuals, mainly in developing countries. These infections continue to go undiagnosed, as they tend to be mainly endemic in resource-poor communities where there is a shortage of experienced laboratory staff and relevant diagnostic technologies. This is further exacerbated by the nature of intermittent shedding of eggs and larvae by these parasites. Diagnostic methods range from simple morphological identification to more specialised high-throughput sequencing technologies. Microscopy-based methods, although simple, are labour-intensive and considerably less sensitive than molecular methods which are rapid and have high levels of accuracy. Molecular methods use nucleic acid amplification (NAA) to amplify the deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) or ribonucleic acid (RNA) fragments of the parasite to detect and determine its presence using different technologies (NAAT). They have increased the sensitivity of detection and quantitation of intestinal nematode infections, especially in low infection intensity settings. The absence of a gold standard test limits current diagnosis and, in turn, restricts intervention measures and effective control efforts. The objective of this review is to determine the accuracy of NAATs in detecting human intestinal nematode infections using Kato-Katz as the reference test for the most common soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections and the scotch tape test for enterobiasis and Baermann method for strongyloidiasis. Relevant studies will be identified by searches in electronic databases. Two reviewers will independently screen the literature against eligibility criteria. The methodological quality of studies will then be appraised by two reviewers using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Discrepancies will be addressed by a third reviewer. The true positives, false positives, true negatives and false negatives of all the studies will be extracted into contingency tables. In paired forest plots, study-specific sensitivity and specificity with a 95 per cent confidence interval will be displayed. The systematic review of this protocol will report the diagnostic accuracy of currently available NAATs for the detection of human intestinal nematode infections. This will help healthcare providers and administrators determine the diagnostic method to be used in different clinical and preventive settings. Trial registration: PROSPERO registration number for this protocol is CRD42022315730.

Social determinants of health pave the path to maternal deaths in rural Sri Lanka: reflections from social autopsies

BACKGROUND

Ending preventable maternal deaths remains a challenge in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Society perceived causes and real-life observations can reveal the intangible causes of maternal deaths irrespective of formal maternal death investigations. This study reports complex patterns in which social determinants act towards paving the path to maternal deaths in a rural Sri Lankan setting.

METHODS

We conducted social autopsies for 15/18 maternal deaths (in two consecutive years during the past decade) in district A (pseudonymized). In-depth interviews of 43 respondents and observations were recorded in the same field sites. During thematic analysis, identified themes were further classified according to the World Health Organization framework for social determinants of health (SDH). The patterns between themes and clustering of social determinants based on the type of maternal deaths were analyzed using mixed methods.

RESULTS

Discernable social causes underpinned 12 out of 15 maternal deaths. Extreme poverty, low educational level, gender inequity, and elementary or below-level occupations of the husband were the characteristic structural determinants of most deceased families. Social isolation was the commonest leading cause manifesting as a reason for many other social factors and resulted in poor social support paving the path to most maternal deaths. A core set of poverty, social isolation, and poor social support acted together with alcohol usage, and violence leading to suicides. These core determinants mediating through neglected self-health care led to delay in health-seeking. Deficits in quality of care and neglect were noted at health institutions and the field.

CONCLUSION

Social autopsies of maternal deaths revealed complex social issues and social determinants of health leading to maternal deaths in Sri Lanka, indicating the need for a socially sensitive health system.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Does Being Diagnosed As Anemic in Early Pregnancy Have an Impact on the Household Expenditure for Food? Evidence From a Maternal Cohort in Rural Sri Lanka

Objectives

Anemia, commonly attributed to nutritional issues, affects more than one third of pregnancies worldwide. Early screening for anemia in pregnancy aims to provide appropriate treatment, including lifestyle modifications, to prevent the morbidity and mortality of the condition on both mother and the baby. We investigated the impact of the “diagnosis of anemia” in early pregnancy on household food expenditure in rural Sri Lanka.

Methods

All first-trimester pregnant women registered at the public health midwives in Anuradhapura district, Sri Lanka, during the third quarter of 2019 were invited to participate in a pregnancy Cohort. Hemoglobin level was assessed at the baseline. Self-administrated questionnaires were used to collect data on the household economic status, household food expenditure, and pregnancy-related food expenditure during the first (T1), second (T2), and third (T3) trimesters. Descriptive statistics and Mann-Whitney U tests were used for data analysis.

Results

The mean (SD) age of participants (n = 1573) was 28.3 (5.6) years and 21.2% (n = 295) were employed. Mild (Hb < 100g/l) and moderate anemia (Hb < 110g/l) were observed in 11.1% (n = 161) and 3.5% (n = 51), in T1 respectively. Monthly household income (median [IQR]) = USD 226.8 [170.09–328.84]) was not significantly different in women with and without anemia (U = 92,365.00, p = 0.85). The median (IQR) household food expenditure was USD 56.70 (39.69–85.04) in both T1 and T2, and the pregnancy-related food expenditure in T2 and T3 were USD 11.34 (5.67–17.01) and USD 8.50 (5.24–11.34), respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in the household food expenditure during T1 (p = 0.85) and T2 (p = 0.98), and the pregnancy-related food expenditure in T2 (p = 0.09) and T3 (p = 0.62) between anemic and non-anemic women. The percentage of household food expenditure spent as pregnancy-related food expenditure in T2 (p = 0.65) and T3 (p = 0.25) were also not significantly different between anemic and non-anemic women.

Conclusions

Household and pregnancy-related food expenditure were not significantly different in women diagnosed with anemia in early pregnancy. Possible explanations for this observation, including effectiveness of nutritional education given to anemic pregnant women, need to be explored further.

Funding Sources

AHEAD Operation, Ministry of Higher Education, Sri Lanka.

Placing Leishmaniasis in the Limelight through the Communicable Disease Surveillance System: An Experience from Sri Lanka

Having an effective surveillance system is imperative to take timely and appropriate actions for disease control and prevention. In Sri Lanka, leishmaniasis was declared as a notifiable disease in 2008. This paper presents a comprehensive compilation of the up-to-date documents on the communicable disease and leishmaniasis surveillance in Sri Lanka in order to describe the importance of the existing leishmaniasis surveillance system and to identify gaps that need to be addressed. The documents perused included circulars, reports, manuals, guidelines, ordinances, presentations, and published articles. The disease trends reported were linked to important landmarks in leishmaniasis surveillance. The findings suggest that there is a well-established surveillance system in Sri Lanka having a massive impact on increased case detection, resulting in im-proved attention on leishmaniasis. However, the system is not without its short comings and there is room for further improvements.

Protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis: magnitude, reasons, associated factors, and implications of the out-of-pocket expenditure during pregnancy

OBJECTIVES

Health-related out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) impedes utilization for maternal health care. We aim to systematically review the magnitude, reasons, associated factors, and implications of OOPE during pregnancy.

STUDY DESIGN

The study design is a protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search will be conducted with the electronic databases of PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane, Trip, Social care online, IDEAS, EconPapers, ERIC, and EconStor. A manual search will be carried out for the reference lists of eligible studies and reviews. The search strategy will include combining two key blocks of terms, namely: 'pregnancy' and 'OOPE,' using database-specific subject headings and text words. Two independent reviewers will screen and assess data quality and extract data for synthesis. Any disagreements during any stage will be determined by consensus with the involvement of a third reviewer. The 'Mixed methods appraisal tool' will be adapted for the quality appraisal of the eligible studies. A narrative synthesis will be provided for the reasons, associated factors, and implications of OOPE, and a meta-analysis will be conducted for the magnitude of OOPE. Furthermore, a subgroup analysis will be done with countries with different income levels and health care policies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO 2020 CRD42020168566.

Economic burden of out-of-pocket expenditure, productivity cost during pregnancy and COVID-19 impact on household economy in a cohort of pregnant women in Anuradhapura District, Sri Lanka; A study protocol

Background: Investigating the out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) associated with maternal health is important since OOPE directly affects the affordability of health services. Global evidence suggests the importance of capturing the productivity cost during pregnancy in terms of absenteeism and presenteeism. Furthermore, the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on the household economy needs to be further evaluated as pregnant women are one of the most vulnerable groups. This study aims at determining the economic burden of OOPE, productivity cost, and COVID-19 impact on pregnant women's household economy in a cohort of pregnant women in Anuradhapura District, Sri Lanka.

Methods: The study setting is all 22 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in Anuradhapura district, Sri Lanka. The study has three components; a follow-up study of a cohort of pregnant women to assess the magnitude and associated factors of OOPE and to assess the productivity cost (Component 1), a qualitative case study to explore the impact and causes of the OOPE under free health services (Component 2) and a cross-sectional study to describe the effects of COVID-19 outbreak on household economy (Component 3). The study samples consist of 1,573 and 1,460 participants for components one and three, respectively, and 25 pregnant women will be recruited for component two. The data will be analyzed using descriptive, parametric, and non-parametric statistics for the first and third components and thematic analysis for the second component.

Discussion: With the lack of evidence on OOPE, productivity loss/cost in terms of maternal health, and COVID-19 impact on household economy in Sri Lanka, the evidence generated from this study would be valuable for policymakers, health care administrators, and health care practitioners globally, regionally, and locally to plan for future measures for reducing the OOPE, productivity loss/cost, and minimizing the economic hardship of the COVID-19 outbreak during pregnancy.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Portal Venous and Mesenteric Wall Calcifications along with Intra-Splenic Vascular Calcification: A Rare Case Report and Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Cross-sectional imaging finding of portal vein calcification were found to be an indicator of portal vein thrombosis. Calcification of the portal vein and its tributaries in portal hypertension is an uncommon finding and the mechanical stress due to long-standing portal hypertension on the vessel wall is considered leading to sclerosis and calcification in the intima and media of the vessel wall. Intra-splenic vascular calcification is a rare occurrence and has been seen in patients with portal hypertension.

CASE PRESENTATION

A 60-year-old male was referred for an ultrasound scan of the abdomen, as he was found to have mild elevation of liver enzymes during a routine medical investigation. His ultrasound scan showed features of cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Furthermore, there were intra-splenic calcifications with branching pattern. Subsequent CT confirmed intra-splenic vascular calcification and calcifications in the wall of the thrombosed portal vein and its tributaries.

CONCLUSION

Pre-operative identification of portal venous calcification is important, as this might adversely affect surgical interventions for cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Furthermore, to our best knowledge, there have not been any cases reported with concurrent calcification of the portal venous system and intra-splenic vascular calcification in association with portal hypertension in literature.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

'Why are you not dead yet?' - dimensions and the main driving forces of stigma and discrimination among COVID-19 patients in Sri Lanka

OBJECTIVES

To explore the experiences, and main driving forces of stigma and discrimination among COVID-19 patients, following hospital discharge, in Sri Lanka.

STUDY DESIGN

A qualitative study was used in order to gain insight and explore the depth and complexity of COVID-19 patients' experiences.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted via telephone in a purposively selected sample of 139 COVID-19 patients. Participants were interviewed during the first 3 weeks following discharge from four main state hospitals that were treating COVID-19 patients during the early phase of the pandemic. Questions on stigma and discrimination were open-ended, enabling patients to provide responses about their different experiences and settings; results were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

The majority of participants were men (n = 80; 57.6%), with a mean age of 43 years (SD = 11.2). In total, up to one-third of the study participants experienced stigma related to COVID-19 and were discriminated against by the community, co-workers and healthcare workers in Sri Lanka. Social discrimination included barriers in accessing basic needs, insulting, blaming, defaming, spreading rumours and receiving no support during emergencies. Workplace discrimination included loss of jobs, not allowing re-entry and loss of earnings due to self-employment. Discrimination by healthcare workers included breaching of confidentiality, lack of respect, not providing health services and communication barriers. Discrimination has led to social isolation, not seeking help and severe psychosocial issues impacting their family relationships. Irresponsible media reporting and sensationalism of news coverage leading to breaching of privacy and confidentiality, defaming, false allegations and reporting household details without consent were perceived as the main factors underlying the views and opinions of the general public.

CONCLUSIONS

Stigma and discrimination experienced by COVID-19 patients in society, workplaces and healthcare facilities have serious negative consequences at the individual and family level. Regulations on responsible media reporting, including an effective risk communication strategy to counteract its effects, are strongly recommended.

How costly is the first prenatal clinic visit? Analysis of out-of-pocket expenditure in rural Sri Lanka - a country with free maternal health care

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the magnitude of and factors associated with out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) during the first prenatal clinic visit among pregnant women in Anuradhapura district, Sri Lanka, which provides free maternal healthcare.

METHODS

The study design was a cross-sectional study, and the study setting was 22 Medical Officers of Health (MOOH) areas in Anuradhapura District, Sri Lanka. Data of 1389 pregnant women were analyzed using descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests.

RESULTS

The mean OOPE of the first prenatal clinic visit was USD 8.12, which accounted for 2.9 and 4.5% of the household income and expenditure, respectively. Pregnant women who used only government-free health services (which are free of charge at the point of service delivery) had an OOPE of USD 3.49. A significant correlation was recorded between household expenditure (rs = 0.095, p = 0.002) and the number of pregnancies (rs = - 0.155, p < 0.001) with OOPE. Education level less than primary education is positively contributed to OOPE (p < 0.05), and utilizing government-free maternal health services lead to a decrease in the OOPE for the first prenatal clinic visit (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Despite having free maternal services, the OOPE of the first prenatal clinic visit is high in rural Sri Lanka. One-fifth of pregnant women utilize private health services, and pregnant women who used only government-free maternal health services also spend a direct medical cost for medicines/micronutrient supplements.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Economic burden of out-of-pocket expenditure, productivity cost during pregnancy and COVID-19 impact on household economy in a cohort of pregnant women in Anuradhapura District, Sri Lanka; A study protocol

Background: Investigating the out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) associated with maternal health is important since OOPE directly affects the affordability of health services. Global evidence suggests the importance of capturing the productivity cost during pregnancy in terms of absenteeism and presenteeism. Furthermore, the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on the household economy needs to be further evaluated as pregnant women are one of the most vulnerable groups. This study aims at determining the economic burden of OOPE, productivity cost, and COVID-19 impact on pregnant women's household economy in a cohort of pregnant women in Anuradhapura District, Sri Lanka. Methods: The study setting is all 22 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in Anuradhapura district, Sri Lanka. The study has three components; a follow-up study of a cohort of pregnant women to assess the magnitude and associated factors of OOPE and to assess the productivity cost (Component 1), a qualitative case study to explore the impact and causes of the OOPE under free health services (Component 2) and a cross-sectional study to describe the effects of COVID-19 outbreak on household economy (Component 3). The study samples consist of 1,573 and 1,460 participants for components one and three, respectively, and 25 pregnant women will be recruited for component two. The data will be analyzed using descriptive, parametric, and non-parametric statistics for the first and third components and thematic analysis for the second component. Discussion: With the lack of evidence on OOPE, productivity loss/cost in terms of maternal health, and COVID-19 impact on household economy in Sri Lanka, the evidence generated from this study would be valuable for policymakers, health care administrators, and health care practitioners globally, regionally, and locally to plan for future measures for reducing the OOPE, productivity loss/cost, and minimizing the economic hardship of the COVID-19 outbreak during pregnancy.

Sri Lanka's early success in the containment of COVID-19 through its rapid response: Clinical & epidemiological evidence from the initial case series

Background

Despite the rising global burden, Sri Lanka reported a relatively low caseload and mortality (13 deaths as of 20 October 2020) for COVID-19. This warrants exploration of the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of the case series during the initial passive case detection phase in Sri Lanka, in order to understand the success in containment of the disease for more than nine months in the country through its initial early and rapid pandemic response.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted using secondary data (hospital records and investigation reports) extracted from all laboratory-confirmed patients admitted to the three main state-sector hospitals in Sri Lanka from 11 March to 7 April 2020. Clinical outcomes were categorized as mild, severe and critical, as per the international classification. Kruskal-Wallis H, Mann Whitney U and Fisher’s exact tests compared differences between the variables.

Results

The case series comprised 146 live discharges and six deaths. Majority were males (63.2%); mean age of 40.9 (SD = 17.9); and symptomatic (72.4%). Sixty-one (40.1%) had co-morbidities, the commonest being diabetes (20.4%) and hypertension (17.8%). Mild (93.4%), severe (2.6%) and critical (4.0%) disease outcomes were noted. Disease severity was significantly higher with older age (p = 0.037), co-morbidities (p = 0.026); and higher white-cell (p = 0.045) and lymphocyte (p = 0.043) counts; but not with being symptomatic (p = 0.683). The commonest symptoms were fever (62.5%), dry cough (48.0%) and sore throat (26.9%). The median duration (IQR) was 3.0 (1.0–5.0) and 18.0 (15.0–29.5) days, respectively before and during hospitalization.

Conclusions

In contrast to high-risk countries, the younger age, milder disease and low mortality observed in local patients during the initial phase of the pandemic, reflect the early success in containment of the pandemic in Sri Lanka. However, once the disease becomes severe, the factors determining disease fatality remain the same as in other countries. This highlights the value of establishing strong public health systems and disease surveillance in a country, which could provide long-term effects on disease control.

The hidden burden of adolescent pregnancies in rural Sri Lanka; findings of the Rajarata Pregnancy Cohort

BACKGROUND

Adolescent fertility is a main indicator of the Sustainable Developmental Goal (SGD) three. Although Sri Lanka is exemplary in maternal health, the utilization of Sexual and Reproductive Health services (SRH) by adolescents is less documented. We describe the hidden burden, associated biological and psychosocial factors and utilization patterns of pre-conceptional services among pregnant adolescents in rural Sri Lanka.

METHODS

The study is based on the baseline assessment of the Rajarata Pregnancy Cohort (RaPCo) in Anuradhapura. Pregnant women newly registered from July to September 2019 were recruited to the study. The period of gestation was confirmed during the second follow-up visit (around 25-28 weeks of gestation) using ultra sound scan data. A history, clinical examination, anthropometric measurements, blood investigations were conducted. Mental health status was assessed using the Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale (EPDS).

RESULTS

Baseline data on gestation was completed by 3,367 pregnant women. Of them, 254 (7.5%) were adolescent pregnancies. Among the primigravida mothers (n = 1037), 22.4% (n = 233) were adolescent pregnancies. Maternal and paternal low education level, being unmarried, and less time since marriage were statistically significant factors associated with adolescent pregnancies (p < 0.05). Contraceptive usage before pregnancy, utilization of pre-conceptional health care services, planning pregnancy and consuming folic acid was significantly low among adolescents (p < 0.001). They also had low body mass index (p < 0.001) and low hemoglobin levels (p = 0.03). Adolescent mothers were less happy of being pregnant (p = 0.006) and had significantly higher levels of anxiety (p = 0.009).

CONCLUSION

One fifth of women in their first pregnancy in this study population are adolescents. Nulli-parous adolescents exert poor social stability and compromised physical and mental health effects. The underutilization and/or unavailability of SRH services is clearly associated with adolescent pregnancies.

Value-Added Roles of Medical Students During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessment of Medical Students' Perceptions and Willingness in Sri Lanka

Purpose

Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an opportune time to introduce the value-added roles of medical students, this study assessed medical students’ perceptions and willingness to assist in COVID-19 health sector preparedness and response via value-added roles in Sri Lanka.

Methods

A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among all medical students studying in six batches of the Faculty of Medicine and Allied Sciences, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, in June 2020. A Google form in English with 10 statements about individual perceptions of medical students’ roles and their willingness to assist in the COVID-19 health sector response via value-added roles was used to collect data. The responses were recorded on a five-point Likert scale. The chi-squared test for independence was used to explore the associations between the academic year and the responses to each statement.

Results

Out of 856 (response rate 79.6%) study participants, the majority were females (n=601, 70.2%). The majority (n=804, 93.9%) reported that they have a responsibility to contribute to the country’s COVID-19 health sector response. There was a statistically significant association between medical students’ perceived level of clinical knowledge, having the clinical skills to assist in the COVID-19 health sector response and academic year (p<0.001). The commonly identified value-added roles were developing (n=770, 89.9%) and disseminating (n=744, 86.9%) health education messages, and field contact tracing activities (n=653, 76.3%). Other value-added roles were assisting the curative health sector in COVID-19 patient management (n=380, 44.4%) and other non-COVID-19 patient management (n=463, 54.1%).

Conclusion

Medical students are mostly willing to engage in preventive health sector value-added roles and, to a lesser extent, in curative health sector value-added roles during the COVID-19 outbreak. However, medical educators need to clearly define the value-added roles and provide adequate training and supervision for medical students across academic years to enable them to combine learning with making meaningful contributions to the health-care system during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.

FINDINGS

The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Public health programmes to promote mental health in young people: a systematic integrative review protocol

INTRODUCTION

In light of the ever-growing mental health disease burden among young people worldwide, we aim to systematically review the global literature to identify the public health programmes targeted at promoting mental health and well-being in young people, the reported/anticipated mental health-related outcomes of the implemented public health programmes and the reported facilitators and barriers in relation to the implementation of those public health programmes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A comprehensive literature search will be carried out in the following electronic bibliographic databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Scopus, ASSIA, Web of Science, Global Health, AMED, Health Source and The Cochrane Library. Further, a manual search of the reference lists of eligible studies and reviews will be carried out. The search strategy will include combinations of three key blocks of terms, namely: 'young people', 'mental health' and 'public health programme', using database-specific subject headings and text words. Two reviewers will independently screen, assess data quality and extract data for synthesis. Disagreements at any stage will be resolved by consensus with the involvement of a third reviewer. Given the anticipated methodological pluralism of the potential eligible studies, we will provide a narrative synthesis of the findings on public health programmes aimed at promoting the mental health and well-being of young people according to identified thematic areas. Furthermore, a narrative synthesis of the reported facilitators and barriers in relation to the implementation of public health programmes will be provided.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Given that the review findings will be focused on understanding the breadth and depth of the global research into public health programmes to promote mental health in young people with a particular emphasis on the facilitators and barriers of programmatic implementation, the findings will be of great value to inform future interventions, programmes and approaches to promote mental health and well-being of young people worldwide.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018099551.

The Rajarata Pregnancy Cohort (RaPCo): study protocol

Background

Ending preventable maternal deaths remains a global priority and in the later stages of obstetric transition, identifying the social determinants of maternal health outcomes is essential to address stagnating maternal mortality rates. Countries would hardly achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SGD) targets on maternal health, unless the complex and context-specific socio-economic aetiologies associated with maternal mental health and suicide are identified. The Rajarata Pregnancy Cohort (RaPCo) is a prospective cohort study, designed to explore the interactions between social determinants and maternal mental health in determining pregnancy and new-born outcomes.

Methods

The study will recruit all eligible pregnant women in the maternal care programme of Anuradhapura district, Sri Lanka from July to September 2019. The estimated sample size is 2400. We will assess the socio-demographic and economic status, social capital, gender-based violence and mental health, including a clinical examination and biochemical investigations during the first trimester. Participants will undergo four follow-ups at 2nd and 3rd trimesters, at delivery and in early postpartum. The new-borns will be followed up at birth, neonatal period, at 6 six months and at 1 year. Pregnancy and child outcome data will be collected using direct contact. Qualitative studies will be carried out to understand the complex social factors and behavioural dimensions related to abortion, antenatal depression, maternal deaths and near misses.

Discussion

This is the first reported maternal cohort in Sri Lanka focusing on social determinants and mental health. As a country in stage four of obstetric transition, these findings will provide generalizable evidence on achieving SGD targets in low- and middle-income countries. The study will be conducted in a district with multi-cultural, multi-ethnic and diverse community characteristics; thus, will enable the evidence generated to be applied in many different contexts. The study also possesses the strength of using direct participant contact, data collection, measurement, examination and biochemical testing to minimise errors in routinely collected data. The RaPCo study will be able to generate evidence to strengthen policies to further reduce maternal deaths in the local, regional and global contexts particularly focusing on social factors and mental health, which are not optimally addressed in the global agenda.