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Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00757-8. [PMID: 38642570 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00757-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Revised: 03/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021. INTERPRETATION Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Avan A, Feigin VL, Bennett DA, Steinmetz JD, Hachinski V, Stranges S, Owolabi MO, Aali A, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abd-Allah F, Abdollahzade S, Abidi H, Abolhassani H, Abualhasan A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abu-Zaid A, Ahmad A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed LA, Ajami M, Al Hamad H, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alimohamadi Y, Aljunid SM, Al-Raddadi RM, Amiri S, Arabloo J, Arulappan J, Arumugam A, Asadi-Pooya AA, Athar M, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari Jafari A, Azzam AY, Baghcheghi N, Bagherieh S, Baltatu OC, Bazmandegan G, Bhojaraja VS, Bijani A, Bitaraf S, Calina D, Darwish AH, Djalalinia S, Doheim MF, Dorostkar F, Eini E, El Nahas N, El Sayed I, Elhadi M, Elmonem MA, Eskandarieh S, Faghani S, Fallahzadeh A, Farahmand M, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari SH, Gholami A, Ghozy S, Goleij P, Hadei M, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halwani R, Hamidi S, Hasaballah AI, Hassan A, Hedna K, Hegazy MI, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Hosseini MS, Hoveidamanesh S, Jahrami H, Jamshidi E, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamiab Z, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khan M, Khan MAB, Khatatbeh, Khayat Kashani HR, Khosravi A, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Larijani B, Lasrado S, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Malekpour MR, Malik AA, Mansournia MA, Mardi P, Maroufi SF, Masoudi S, Mayeli M, Mehrabi Nasab E, Menezes RG, Mirmoeeni S, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mobarakabadi M, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi S, Mohan S, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Montazeri F, Moradi Sarabi M, Moraga P, Morovatdar N, Motaghinejad M, Naghavi M, Natto ZS, Nejadghaderi SA, Noroozi N, Okati-Aliabad H, Pazoki Toroudi H, Perna S, Piradov MA, Pourahmadi M, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rao CR, Rashidi MM, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghian-Jahromi I, Redwan EMM, Rezaee M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rikhtegar R, Saad AMA, Saddik B, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian S, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Sahebkar A, Salahi S, Salahi S, Samy AM, Sanadgol N, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Saylan M, Shahbandi A, Shahrokhi S, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shanawaz M, Sharifi-Rad J, Sheikhi RA, Shetty JK, Shobeiri P, Shorofi SA, Siabani S, Tabatabaei SM, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Temsah MH, Vakilian A, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Vaziri S, Vo B, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yesiltepe M, Zaki N, Zare I, Zare Dehnavi A, Zoladl M. The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Glob Health 2024:S2214-109X(24)00093-7. [PMID: 38604203 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(24)00093-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Revised: 01/25/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making. METHODS In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution. FINDINGS In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled. INTERPRETATION The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Ejigu BA, Shiferaw S, Moraga P, Seme A, Yihdego M, Zebene A, Amogne A, Zimmerman L. Spatial analysis of modern contraceptive use among women who need it in Ethiopia: Using geo-referenced data from performance monitoring for action. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0297818. [PMID: 38573989 PMCID: PMC10994403 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/06/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The challenge of achieving maternal and neonatal health-related goals in developing countries is significantly impacted by high fertility rates, which are partly attributed to limited access to family planning and access to the healthcare systems. The most widely used indicator to monitor family planning coverage is the proportion of women in reproductive age using contraception (CPR). However, this metric does not accurately reflect the true family planning coverage, as it fails to account for the diverse needs of women in reproductive age. Not all women in this category require contraception, including those who are pregnant, wish to become pregnant, sexually inactive, or infertile. To effectively address the contraceptive needs of those who require it, this study aims to estimate family planning coverage among this specific group. Further, we aimed to explore the geographical variation and factors influencing contraceptive uptake of contraceptive use among those who need. METHOD We used data from the Performance Monitoring for Action Ethiopia (PMA Ethiopia) survey of women of reproductive age and the service delivery point (SDP) survey conducted in 2019. A total of 4,390 women who need contraception were considered as the analytical sample. To account for the study design, sampling weights were considered to compute the coverage of modern contraceptive use disaggregated by socio-demographic factors. Bayesian geostatistical modeling was employed to identify potential factors associated with the uptake of modern contraception and produce spatial prediction to unsampled locations. RESULT The overall weighted prevalence of modern contraception use among women who need it was 44.2% (with 95% CI: 42.4%-45.9%). Across regions of Ethiopia, contraceptive use coverage varies from nearly 0% in Somali region to 52.3% in Addis Ababa. The average nearest distance from a woman's home to the nearest SDP was high in the Afar and Somali regions. The spatial mapping shows that contraceptive coverage was lower in the eastern part of the country. At zonal administrative level, relatively high (above 55%) proportion of modern contraception use coverage were observed in Adama Liyu Zone, Ilu Ababor, Misrak Shewa, and Kefa zone and the coverage were null in majority of Afar and Somali region zones. Among modern contraceptive users, use of the injectable dominated the method-mix. The modeling result reveals that, living closer to a SDP, having discussions about family planning with the partner, following a Christian religion, no pregnancy intention, being ever pregnant and being young increases the likelihood of using modern contraceptive methods. CONCLUSION Areas with low contraceptive coverage and lower access to contraception because of distance should be prioritized by the government and other supporting agencies. Women who discussed family planning with their partner were more likely to use modern contraceptives unlike those without such discussion. Thus, to improve the coverage of contraceptive use, it is very important to encourage/advocate women to have discussions with their partner and establish movable health systems for the nomadic community.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Solomon Shiferaw
- School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Assefa Seme
- School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | | | | | | | - Linnea Zimmerman
- Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
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Naghavi M, Ong KL, Aali A, Ababneh HS, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abebe SS, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abhilash ES, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abolmaali M, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Accrombessi MMK, Adal TG, Adamu AA, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adebiyi AO, Adekanmbi V, Adepoju AV, Adetunji CO, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adeyinka DA, Adeyomoye OI, Admass BAA, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afolabi AA, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agampodi SB, Agasthi P, Aggarwal M, Aghamiri S, Agide FD, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Akara EM, Akbarialiabad H, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemiju T, Akkaif MA, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, Alalalmeh SO, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam N, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Al-Azzam S, Albakri A, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Aldawsari KA, Aldhaleei WA, Aldridge RW, Alema HB, Alemayohu MA, Alemi S, Alemu YM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhabib KF, Alhalaiqa FAN, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali S, Ali SSS, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Alikhani R, Alimohamadi Y, Aliyi AA, Aljasir MAM, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri SAA, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almidani L, Almidani O, Alomari MA, Al-Omari B, Alonso J, Alqahtani JS, Alqalyoobi S, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Sabah SK, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvis-Guzman N, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amani R, Amare AT, Amegbor PM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angus C, Anil A, Anil S, Anoushiravani A, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anvari S, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyasodor AE, Aqeel M, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Aremu A, Aremu O, Ariffin H, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Asaad M, Asadi-Lari M, Asgedom AA, Asghariahmadabad M, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf M, Aslani A, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atinafu BTT, Atlaw HW, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Awedew AF, Aweke AM, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Azzam AY, B DB, Babu AS, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadorikhalili S, Bahmanziari N, Bai R, Baig AA, Baker JL, Bako AT, Bakshi RK, Balakrishnan S, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik PC, Bansal H, Bansal K, Barbic F, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barrero LH, Barrow A, Barteit S, Barua L, Basharat Z, Bashiri A, Basiru A, Baskaran P, Basnyat B, Bassat Q, Basso JD, Basting AVL, Basu S, Batra K, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Beaney T, Bedi N, Beghi M, Behboudi E, Behera P, Behnoush AH, Behzadifar M, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Béjot Y, Belay SA, Belete CM, Bell ML, Bello MB, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bender RG, Bensenor IM, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Berhie AY, Berice BN, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhandari D, Bhangdia K, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Bisulli F, Biswas A, Biswas B, Bitaraf S, Bitew BD, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Boachie MK, Boampong MS, Bobirca AV, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bogale KA, Bohlouli S, Bolarinwa OA, Boloor A, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora K, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Borzutzky A, Bouaoud S, Boustany A, Boxe C, Boyko EJ, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Brazo-Sayavera J, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton G, Brown J, Brugha T, Bulamu NB, Bulto LN, Buonsenso D, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Cao Y, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carugno A, Carvalheiro CG, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Cederroth CR, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Cevik M, Chadwick J, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty PA, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandika RM, Chandrasekar EK, Chang CK, Chang JC, Chanie GS, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chaurasia A, Chen AW, Chen AT, Chen CS, Chen H, Chen MX, Chen S, Cheng CY, Cheng ETW, Cherbuin N, Cheru WA, Chien JH, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho WCS, Chong B, Chopra H, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Christopher DJ, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung E, Chung E, Chung SC, Chutiyami M, Cindi Z, Cioffi I, Claassens MM, Claro RM, Coberly K, Cogen RM, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Cortese S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Costanzo S, Cousin E, Couto RAS, Cowden RG, Cramer KM, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Cuadra-Hernández SM, Culbreth GT, Cullen P, Cunningham M, Curado MP, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai S, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalli LL, Damiani G, Darega Gela J, Das JK, Das S, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dastiridou A, Davey G, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, Davletov K, De Leo D, de Luca K, Debele AT, Debopadhaya S, Degenhardt L, Dehghan A, Deitesfeld L, Del Bo' C, Delgado-Enciso I, Demessa BH, Demetriades AK, Deng K, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deravi N, Dereje N, Dervenis N, Dervišević E, Des Jarlais DC, Desai HD, Desai R, Devanbu VGC, Dewan SMR, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, Dhulipala VR, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Ding H, Dinis-Oliveira RJ, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Do THP, do Prado CB, Doaei S, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Dohare S, Dokova KG, Dolecek C, Dominguez RMV, Dong W, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorostkar F, Dorsey ER, dos Santos WM, Doshi R, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Du M, Dube J, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, E'mar AR, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Echieh CP, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi D, Efendi F, Effendi DE, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed I, Elbarazi I, Elema TB, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, Elgendy IY, ElGohary GMT, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Elilo LT, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Esezobor CI, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Espinosa-Montero J, Esubalew H, Etaee F, Fabin N, Fadaka AO, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Fahimi S, Fakhri-Demeshghieh A, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faris PS, Faro A, Fasanmi AO, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fauk NK, Fazeli P, Feigin VL, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferrante D, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Feyisa BR, Filip I, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flood D, Florin BT, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Foroutan B, Foroutan M, Forthun I, Fortuna D, Foschi M, Fowobaje KR, Francis KL, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Friedman J, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fux B, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Gakidou E, Galali Y, Galles NC, Gallus S, Ganbat M, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Garg J, Garg N, Gautam RK, Gbadamosi SO, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremeskel TG, Georgescu SR, Getachew T, Gething PW, Getie M, Ghadiri K, 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Hankey GJ, Hanna F, Hannan MA, Haque MN, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasan MT, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hashi A, Hasnain MS, Hassan I, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, He J, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Helfer B, Hendrie D, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Hesami H, Hezam K, Hill CL, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hossain S, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hosseinzadeh Adli A, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hsu RL, Hu C, Huang J, Hultström M, Humayun A, Hundie TG, Hussain J, Hussain MA, Hussein NR, Hussien FM, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ibrahim KS, Iftikhar PM, Ijo D, Ikiroma AI, Ikuta KS, Ikwegbue PC, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Immurana M, Inamdar S, Indriasih E, Iqhrammullah M, Iradukunda A, Iregbu KC, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyamu IO, Iyer M, J LM, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, 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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00367-2. [PMID: 38582094 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00367-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 02/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Steinmetz JD, Seeher KM, Schiess N, Nichols E, Cao B, Servili C, Cavallera V, Cousin E, Hagins H, Moberg ME, Mehlman ML, Abate YH, Abbas J, Abbasi MA, Abbasian M, Abbastabar H, Abdelmasseh M, Abdollahi M, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abd-Rabu R, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abedi A, Abedi V, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Aboyans V, Abrha WA, Abualhasan A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Adamu LH, Addo IY, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adekiya TA, Adikusuma W, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework T, Afolabi AA, Afraz A, Afzal S, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed JQ, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Ajumobi O, Akade SE, Akbari M, Akbarialiabad H, Akhlaghi S, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemi RO, Akonde M, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, AL-Ahdal TMA, Al-amer RM, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Aldawsari KA, Alemi H, Alemi S, Algammal AM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alhassan RK, Ali A, Ali EA, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali MM, Ali R, Ali S, Ali SSS, Ali Z, Alif SM, Alimohamadi Y, Aliyi AA, Aljofan M, Aljunid SM, Alladi S, Almazan JU, Almustanyir S, Al-Omari B, Alqahtani JS, Alqasmi I, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Shahi Salman R, Altaany Z, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amani R, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Amzat J, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Angappan D, Angesom TW, Anil A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anwer R, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Ariffin H, Arifin H, Arkew M, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Artanti KD, Aruleba RT, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asena TF, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf M, Ashraf T, Atalell KA, Athari SS, Atinafu BTT, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Avan A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayinde OO, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azizi Z, Azizian K, Azzam AY, Babaei M, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagherieh S, Bai R, Baig AA, Balakrishnan S, Balalla S, Baltatu OC, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banerjee I, Baran MF, Barboza MA, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrow A, Bashash D, Bashiri H, Bashiru HA, Basiru A, Basso JD, Basu S, Batiha AMM, Batra K, Baune BT, Bedi N, Begde A, Begum T, Behnam B, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Béjot Y, Bekele A, Belete MA, Belgaumi UI, Bemanalizadeh M, Bender RG, Benfor B, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berice B, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Bhadra A, Bhagat DS, Bhangdia K, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti R, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilalaga MM, Biswas A, Bitaraf S, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Boloor A, Braithwaite D, Brayne C, Brenner H, Briko A, Bringas Vega ML, Brown J, Budke CM, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Bustanji Y, Butt MH, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Cabral LS, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carvalho AF, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Casulli A, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cenderadewi M, Cerin E, Chacón-Uscamaita PRU, Chan JSK, Chanie GS, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chekol Abebe E, Chen H, Chen J, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chidambaram SB, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chitheer A, Chong YY, Chopra H, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury EK, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Coberly K, Columbus A, Comachio J, Conde J, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Dabbagh Ohadi MA, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai X, Dai Z, D'Amico E, Danawi HA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darwish AH, Das S, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, De la Hoz FP, de la Torre-Luque A, De Leo D, Dean FE, Dehghan A, Dehghan A, Dejene H, Demant D, Demetriades AK, Demissie S, Deng X, Desai HD, Devanbu VGC, Dhama K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dibas M, Ding DD, Dinu M, Dirac MA, Diress M, Do TC, Do THP, Doan KDK, Dodangeh M, Doheim MF, Dokova KG, Dongarwar D, Dsouza HL, Dube J, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dutta S, Dziedzic AM, Edinur HA, Eissazade N, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Nahas N, El Sayed I, Elahi Najafi MA, Elbarazi I, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, Elgendy IY, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, Elilo LT, Ellenbogen RG, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emamverdi M, Emeto TI, Endres M, Esezobor CI, Eskandarieh S, Fadaei A, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Faramarzi A, Fares J, Farjoud Kouhanjani M, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fatehizadeh A, Fathi M, Fathi S, Fatima SAF, Feizkhah A, Fereshtehnejad SM, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Firouraghi N, Fischer F, Fonseca AC, Force LM, Fornari A, Foroutan B, Fukumoto T, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Galali Y, Galehdar N, Gan Q, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Gardner WM, Garg N, Gau SY, Gautam RK, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremeskel GG, Gebreslassie HG, Getacher L, Ghaderi Yazdi B, Ghadirian F, Ghaffarpasand F, Ghanbari R, Ghasemi M, Ghazy RM, Ghimire S, Gholami A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghotbi E, Ghozy S, Gialluisi A, Gill PS, Glasstetter LM, Gnedovskaya EV, Golchin A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gomes-Neto M, Goulart AC, Goyal A, Gray RJ, Grivna M, Guadie HA, Guan B, Guarducci G, Guicciardi S, Gunawardane DA, Guo H, Gupta B, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Hachinski V, Haddadi R, Hadei M, Hadi NR, Haep N, Haile TG, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Halwani R, Hameed S, Hamiduzzaman M, Hammoud A, Han H, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Hao J, Harapan H, Hareru HE, Hargono A, Harlianto NI, Haro JM, Hartman NN, Hasaballah AI, Hasan F, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hassan A, Hassan S, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hassen MB, Haubold J, Hay SI, Hayat K, Hegazy MI, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Hesami H, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoffman HJ, Holla R, Hopf KP, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hossain MB, Hossain S, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hu C, Huang J, Huda MN, Hussain J, Hussein NR, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ilaghi M, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Iravanpour F, Islam SMS, Ismail F, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu 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MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kivimäki M, Kochhar S, Kolahi AA, Koly KN, Kompani F, Koroshetz WJ, Kosen S, Kourosh Arami M, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kuddus MA, Kumar A, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kumsa NB, Kundu S, Kurniasari MD, Kusuma D, Kuttikkattu A, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Ladan MA, Lahariya C, Laksono T, Lal DK, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lami FH, Landires I, Langguth B, Lasrado S, Latief K, Latifinaibin K, Lau KMM, Laurens MB, Lawal BK, Le LKD, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, Leonardi M, Lerango TL, Li MC, Li W, Ligade VS, Lim SS, Linehan C, Liu C, Liu J, Liu W, Lo CH, Lo WD, Lobo SW, Logroscino G, Lopes G, Lopukhov PD, Lorenzovici L, Lorkowski S, Loureiro JA, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lutzky Saute R, Ma ZF, Mabrok M, Machoy M, Madadizadeh F, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghazachi AA, Maghbouli N, Mahjoub S, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Malagón-Rojas JN, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Mallhi TH, Malta DC, 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A, Mulita F, Musaigwa F, Mustafa A, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Nainu F, Nair TS, Najmuldeen HHR, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nambi G, Namdar Areshtanab H, Nargus S, Nascimento BR, Naser AY, Nashwan AJJ, Nasoori H, Nasreldein A, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Nayak BP, Nazri-Panjaki A, Negaresh M, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nematollahi MH, Nesbit OD, Newton CRJ, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen HQ, Nguyen NTT, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nikolouzakis TK, Niranjan V, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Noroozi N, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Oancea B, Odetokun IA, O'Donnell MJ, Ogunsakin RE, Oguta JO, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olana MD, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Omar Bali A, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Ordak M, Orji AU, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Osuagwu UL, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Owolabi MO, P A MP, Pacheco-Barrios K, 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Ramazanu S, Rancic N, Rao IR, Rao SJ, Rapaka D, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rashidi MM, Rashidi Alavijeh M, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rawaf S, Razo C, Redwan EMM, Rekabi Bana A, Remuzzi G, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Riad A, Robinson SR, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rogowski ELB, Romoli M, Ronfani L, Roy P, Roy Pramanik K, Rubagotti E, Ruiz MA, Russ TC, S Sunnerhagen K, Saad AMA, Saadatian Z, Saber K, SaberiKamarposhti M, Sacco S, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Saeed U, Safdarian M, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Sagoe D, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahraian MA, Sajedi SA, Sakshaug JW, Saleh MA, Salehi Omran H, Salem MR, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanadgol N, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Santomauro DF, Santri IN, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saravanan A, Sarveazad A, Satpathy M, Saylan M, Sayyah M, Scarmeas N, Schlaich MP, Schuermans A, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Selvaraj S, Sendekie AK, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Serban D, Sergindo MT, Sethi Y, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seylani A, Shabani M, Shabany M, Shafie M, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid S, Shahraki-Sanavi F, Shahsavari HR, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shaji KS, Sham S, Shama ATT, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Sharath M, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharma M, Sharma R, Shashamo BB, Shayan M, Sheikhi RA, Shekhar S, Shen J, Shenoy SM, Shetty PH, Shiferaw DS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shivakumar KM, Shokri F, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Siankam Tankwanchi AB, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Sinaei E, Singh BB, Singh G, Singh P, Singh S, Sirota SB, Sivakumar S, Sohag AAM, Solanki R, Soleimani H, Solikhah S, Solomon Y, Solomon Y, Song S, Song Y, Sotoudeh H, Spartalis M, Stark BA, Starnes JR, Starodubova AV, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Sunkersing D, Sunny A, Susianti H, Swain CK, Szeto MD, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabai S, Tabish M, Taheri M, Tahvildari A, Tajbakhsh A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JJLL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tareke M, Tarigan IU, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Tavasol A, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temesgen WA, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Tesfaye AH, Tesfaye EG, Tesler R, Thakali O, Thangaraju P, Thapa R, Thapar R, Thomas NK, Thrift AG, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Toghroli R, Tonelli M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran NM, Tran NH, Tran PV, Tromans SJ, Truelsen TC, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Tsermpini EE, Tualeka AR, Tufa DG, Ubah CS, Udoakang AJ, Ulhaq I, Umair M, Umakanthan S, Umapathi KK, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Vaithinathan AG, Vakilian A, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Villani L, Vinueza Veloz AF, Viskadourou M, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Volovat SR, Vu LT, Vujcic IS, Wagaye B, Waheed Y, Wahood W, Walde MT, Wang F, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Waqas M, Waris A, Weerakoon KG, Weintraub RG, Weldemariam AH, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Willekens B, Wilner LB, Winkler AS, Wolfe CDA, Wu AM, Wulf Hanson S, Xu S, Xu X, Yadollahpour A, Yaghoubi S, Yahya G, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yehualashet SS, Yeshaneh A, Yesiltepe M, Yi S, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yusuf H, Zadey S, Zahedi M, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zali A, Zamagni G, Zand R, Zandieh GGZ, Zangiabadian M, Zarghami A, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zegeye ZB, Zeukeng F, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhou H, Zhu B, Zhumagaliuly A, Zielińska M, Zikarg YT, Zoladl M, Murray CJL, Ong KL, Feigin VL, Vos T, Dua T. Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Neurol 2024; 23:344-381. [PMID: 38493795 PMCID: PMC10949203 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(24)00038-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2023] [Revised: 01/23/2024] [Accepted: 01/26/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Amaral AVR, Rubio FJ, Quaresma M, Rodríguez-Cortés FJ, Moraga P. Extended excess hazard models for spatially dependent survival data. Stat Methods Med Res 2024; 33:681-701. [PMID: 38444377 DOI: 10.1177/09622802241233767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/07/2024]
Abstract
Relative survival represents the preferred framework for the analysis of population cancer survival data. The aim is to model the survival probability associated with cancer in the absence of information about the cause of death. Recent data linkage developments have allowed for incorporating the place of residence into the population cancer databases; however, modeling this spatial information has received little attention in the relative survival setting. We propose a flexible parametric class of spatial excess hazard models (along with inference tools), named "Relative Survival Spatial General Hazard," that allows for the inclusion of fixed and spatial effects in both time-level and hazard-level components. We illustrate the performance of the proposed model using an extensive simulation study, and provide guidelines about the interplay of sample size, censoring, and model misspecification. We present a case study using real data from colon cancer patients in England. This case study illustrates how a spatial model can be used to identify geographical areas with low cancer survival, as well as how to summarize such a model through marginal survival quantities and spatial effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- André Victor Ribeiro Amaral
- CEMSE Division, Department of Statistics, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Manuela Quaresma
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Paula Moraga
- CEMSE Division, Department of Statistics, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
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Schumacher AE, Kyu HH, Aali A, Abbafati C, Abbas J, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasi MA, Abbasian M, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abdurehman AM, Abebe M, Abedi A, Abedi A, Abegaz TM, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Abhilash ES, Abiodun OO, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abrigo MRM, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Acuna JM, Adair T, Addo IY, Adebayo OM, Adegboye OA, Adekanmbi V, Aden B, Adepoju AV, Adetunji CO, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adeyomoye OI, Adha R, Adibi A, Adikusuma W, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework A, Afolabi AA, Afraz A, Afyouni S, Afzal S, Agasthi P, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmadzade M, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Ajumobi O, Akalu GT, Akara EM, Akinosoglou K, Akkala S, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Al Homsi A, Al Qadire M, Ala M, Aladelusi TO, 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Ramazanu S, Rana J, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rani S, Ranjan S, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rasali DP, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rastogi P, Rasul A, Ravangard R, Ravikumar N, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghian-Jahromi I, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Rehman FU, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Reyes LF, Rezaee M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Riaz MA, Ribeiro AI, Ribeiro DC, Rickard J, Rios-Blancas MJ, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rohilla R, Rohloff P, Romadlon DS, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roshanzamir S, Rostamian M, Roy B, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Rwegerera GM, Rynkiewicz A, S M, S N C, S Sunnerhagen K, Saad AMA, Sabbatucci M, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, Sacco S, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Saeedi M, Safi S, Sagar R, Saghazadeh A, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahoo SS, Sahraian MA, Sajedi SA, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salahi S, Salahi S, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samara KA, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanadgol N, Sanganyado E, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Sanna F, Santri IN, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar C, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saulam J, Sawyer SM, Saxena S, Saya GK, Sayadi Y, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Saylan M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Šekerija M, Selvaraj S, Semreen MH, Senapati S, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Sertsu A, Sethi Y, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seyedi SA, Shafaat A, Shafaat O, Shafie M, Shafiee A, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shakil H, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshad H, Shamshirgaran MA, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Shariff M, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shaw DH, Shayan AM, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shen J, Shenoy MM, Shetty BSK, Shetty RS, Shey RA, Shiani A, Shibuya K, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shool S, Shrestha S, Shuja KH, Shuval K, Si Y, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simões JP, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh B, Singh M, Singh M, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Sitas F, Sivakumar S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Slepak ELN, Sohrabi H, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Solmi M, Solomon Y, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy CT, Starnes JR, Starodubov VI, Starodubova AV, Stefan SC, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Sunkersing D, Susanty S, Swain CK, Sykes BL, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabb KM, Tabish M, Taborda-Barata LM, Tabuchi T, Tadesse BT, Taheri A, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Tajbakhsh A, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tang HK, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tebeje TM, Tefera YM, Teimoori M, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Tesfaye SH, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapa R, Thapar R, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thum CCC, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tiruye TY, Tohidast SA, Tonelli M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tram KH, Tran NM, Trico D, Trihandini I, Tromans SJ, Truong VT, Truyen TTTT, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tung K, Tyrovolas S, Ubah CS, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ulhaq I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umar TP, Umeokonkwo CD, Umesh A, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Vacante M, Vahdani AM, Vaithinathan AG, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Varavikova E, Varga O, Varma SA, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Veerman LJ, Venketasubramanian N, Venugopal D, Verghese NA, Verma M, Verma P, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Vieira RJ, Villafañe JH, Villani L, Villanueva GI, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Visontay R, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Volovici V, Vongpradith A, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic R, Wado YD, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang D, Wang F, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Watson S, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weiss DJ, Weldemariam AH, Wells KM, Wen YF, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wijeratne T, Wilson S, Wojewodzic MW, Wool EE, Woolf AD, Wu D, Wulandari RD, Xiao H, Xu B, Xu X, Yadav L, Yaghoubi S, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Ye P, Yesera GE, Yesodharan R, Yesuf SA, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zafari N, Zahedi M, Zahid MN, Zahir M, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zakzuk J, Zamagni G, Zaman BA, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandi M, Zandieh GGZ, Zanghì A, Zare I, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zeng Y, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang Z, Zhang Z, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu Z, Ziaeefar P, Zielińska M, Zou Z, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00476-8. [PMID: 38484753 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Sharma R, Abbastabar H, Abdulah DM, Abidi H, Abolhassani H, Abrehdari-Tafreshi Z, Absalan A, Ali HA, Abu-Gharbieh E, Acuna JM, Adib N, Sakilah Adnani QE, Aghaei A, Ahmad A, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed LA, Ajami M, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Alanezi FM, Saeed Al-Gheethi AA, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali BA, Alimohamadi Y, Aljunid SM, Ali Al-Maweri SA, Alqahatni SA, AlQudah M, Al-Raddadi RM, Al-Tammemi AB, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Ariffin H, Artaman A, Arulappan J, Ashraf T, Askari E, Athar M, Wahbi Atout MM, Azadnajafabad S, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagherieh S, Bai R, Bajbouj K, Baliga S, Bardhan M, Bashiri A, Baskaran P, Basu S, Belgaumi UI, Nazer C Bermudez A, Bhandari B, Bhardwaj N, Bhat AN, Bitaraf S, Boloor A, Hashemi MB, Butt ZA, Chadwick J, Kai Chan JS, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Cho WC, Darwesh AM, Dash NR, Dehghan A, Dhali A, Dianatinasab M, Dibas M, Dixit A, Dixit SG, Dorostkar F, Dsouza HL, Elbarazi I, Elemam NM, El-Huneidi W, Elkord E, Abdou Elmeligy OA, Emamian MH, Erkhembayar R, Ezzeddini R, Fadoo Z, Faiz R, Fakhradiyev IR, Fallahzadeh A, Faris MEM, Farrokhpour H, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fekadu G, Fukumoto T, Gaidhane AM, Galehdar N, Garg P, Ghadirian F, Ghafourifard M, Ghasemi M, Nour MG, Ghassemi F, Gholamalizadeh M, Gholamian A, Ghotbi E, Golechha M, Goleij P, Goyal S, Mohialdeen Gubari MI, Gunasekera DS, Gunawardane DA, Gupta S, Habibzadeh P, Haeri Boroojeni HS, Halboub ES, Hamadeh RR, Hamoudi R, Harorani M, Hasanian M, Hassan TS, Hay SI, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Hessami K, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Hoseini M, Hossain MM, Hossain S, Hsieh VCR, Huang J, Hussein NR, Hwang BF, Iravanpour F, Ismail NE, Iwagami M, Merin J L, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jahani MA, Jahrami H, Jaiswal A, Jakovljevic M, Jalili M, Jamshidi E, Jayarajah U, Jayaram S, Jha SS, Jokar M, Joseph N, Kabir A, Kabir MA, Kadir DH, Kakodkar PV, Kalankesh LR, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kaliyadan F, Kamal VK, Kamal Z, Kamath A, Kar SS, Karimi H, Kaur N, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khan EA, Khan MN, Khan M, Khan MA, Khan YH, Khanmohammadi S, Khatatbeh MM, Khateri S, Khayamzadeh M, Khayat Kashani HR, Kim MS, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Kumar N, Kumar N, Kutluk T, Kuttikkattu A, Ching Lai DT, Lal DK, Lami FH, Lasrado S, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee YY, Lee YH, Leong E, Li MC, Liu J, Madadizadeh F, Mafi AR, Mahjoub S, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Malik I, Mallhi TH, Mansournia MA, Martini S, Mathews E, Mathur MR, Meena JK, Menezes RG, Mirfakhraie R, Mirinezhad SK, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mithra P, Mohamadkhani A, Mohammadi S, Mohammadzadeh M, Mohan S, Mokdad AH, Al Montasir A, Montazeri F, Moradi M, Sarabi MM, Moradpour F, Moradzadeh M, Moraga P, Mosapour A, Motaghinejad M, Mubarik S, Muhammad JS, Murray CJ, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Nargus S, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Nejadghaderi SA, Nguyen PT, Niazi RK, Noroozi N, Okati-Aliabad H, Okekunle AP, Ong S, Oommen AM, Padubidri JR, Pandey A, Park EK, Park S, Pati S, Patil S, Paudel R, Paudel U, Pirestani M, Podder I, Pourali G, Pourjafar M, Pourshams A, Syed ZQ, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Rahman M, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Ramesh PS, Rana J, Rao IR, Rao SJ, Rashedi S, Rashidi MM, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei S, Rezaeian M, Roshandel G, Chandan S, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Sabzmakan L, Saddik B, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Sharif-Askari FS, Sahebkar A, Sahoo H, Sajedi SA, Sajid MR, Salehi MA, Farrokhi AS, Sarasmita MA, Sargazi S, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Semwal P, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Shafeghat M, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahraki-Sanavi F, Shaikh MA, Shannawaz M, Sheikhi RA, Shobeiri P, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Siabani S, Singh G, Singh P, Singh S, Sinha DN, Siwal SS, Sreeram S, Suleman M, Abdulkader RS, Sultan I, Sultana A, Tabish M, Tabuchi T, Taheri M, Talaat IM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Thangaraju P, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Tiyuri A, Tobe-Gai R, Toghroli R, Tovani-Palone MR, Ullah S, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Tahbaz SV, Valizadeh R, Varthya SB, Waheed Y, Wang S, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Xiao H, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zahir M, Zaki N, Zamanian M, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zitoun OA, Zoladl M. Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Lancet Reg Health Southeast Asia 2024; 21:100333. [PMID: 38361599 PMCID: PMC10866992 DOI: 10.1016/j.lansea.2023.100333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2023] [Revised: 11/08/2023] [Accepted: 11/15/2023] [Indexed: 02/17/2024]
Abstract
Background Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades. Methods The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates. Findings All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019. Interpretation With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control. Funding The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Gómez-González S, Miranda A, Hoyos-Santillan J, Lara A, Moraga P, Pausas JG. Afforestation and climate mitigation: lessons from Chile. Trends Ecol Evol 2024; 39:5-8. [PMID: 37891076 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.09.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Revised: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023]
Abstract
The Chilean Climate Change Law excludes tree monocultures as a solution to the climate crisis, offering an opportunity for resilience and climate mitigation in Latin America. The Chilean experience with mega-fires in extensive, homogeneous forest plantations provides important lessons that could inform climate policies in other countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Gómez-González
- Departamento de Biología-IVAGRO, Universidad de Cádiz, Puerto Real, 11510, Spain; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)(2), Santiago, 8370448, Chile; Center for Fire and Socioecological Systems (FireSES), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5110566, Chile.
| | - A Miranda
- Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)(2), Santiago, 8370448, Chile; Center for Fire and Socioecological Systems (FireSES), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5110566, Chile; Laboratorio de Ecología del Paisaje y Conservación, Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, 4811230, Chile
| | - J Hoyos-Santillan
- Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)(2), Santiago, 8370448, Chile; Environmental Biogeochemistry Laboratory, GAIA Antarctic Research Centre, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, 6200000, Chile; School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington, Loughborough, LE12 5RD, UK; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Ancón, 0843-03092, Panamá
| | - A Lara
- Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)(2), Santiago, 8370448, Chile; Center for Fire and Socioecological Systems (FireSES), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5110566, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile; Fundación Centro de los Bosques Nativos (FORECOS), Isla Teja, Valdivia, 5110206, Chile
| | - P Moraga
- Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)(2), Santiago, 8370448, Chile; Centro de Derecho Ambiental, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 6640022, Chile
| | - J G Pausas
- Center for Fire and Socioecological Systems (FireSES), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5110566, Chile; Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación (CIDE-CSIC), Valencia, 46113, Spain
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Pavani J, Bastos LS, Moraga P. Joint spatial modeling of the risks of co-circulating mosquito-borne diseases in Ceará, Brazil. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2023; 47:100616. [PMID: 38042535 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2023.100616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Revised: 08/06/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 12/04/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and chikungunya have been co-circulating in the Americas, causing great damage to the population. In 2021, for instance, almost 1.5 million cases were reported on the continent, being Brazil the responsible for most of them. Even though they are transmitted by the same mosquito, it remains unclear whether there exists a relationship between both diseases. In this paper, we model the geographic distributions of dengue and chikungunya over the years 2016 to 2021 in the Brazilian state of Ceará. We use a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model for the joint analysis of two arboviruses that includes spatial covariates as well as specific and shared spatial effects that take into account the potential autocorrelation between the two diseases. Our findings allow us to identify areas with high risk of one or both diseases. Only 7% of the areas present high relative risk for both diseases, which suggests a competition between viruses. This study advances the understanding of the geographic patterns and the identification of risk factors of dengue and chikungunya being able to help health decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica Pavani
- Department of Statistics, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
| | - Leonardo S Bastos
- Scientific Computing Program, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
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Cunha ARD, Compton K, Xu R, Mishra R, Drangsholt MT, Antunes JLF, Kerr AR, Acheson AR, Lu D, Wallace LE, Kocarnik JM, Fu W, Dean FE, Pennini A, Henrikson HJ, Alam T, Ababneh E, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdoun M, Abidi H, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Adane TD, Addo IY, Ahmad A, Ahmad S, Ahmed Rashid T, Akonde M, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Al-Maweri SA, Alsharif U, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anwar SL, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Aruleba RT, Asaad M, Ashraf T, Athari SS, Attia S, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Badar M, Baghcheghi N, Banach M, Bardhan M, Barqawi HJ, Bashir NZ, Bashiri A, Benzian H, Bernabe E, Bhagat DS, Bhojaraja VS, Bjørge T, Bouaoud S, Braithwaite D, Briko NI, Calina D, Carreras G, Chakraborty PA, Chattu VK, Chaurasia A, Chen MX, Cho WCS, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Darwesh AM, Debela SA, Derbew Molla M, Dessalegn FN, Dianati-Nasab M, Digesa LE, Dixit SG, Dixit A, Djalalinia S, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Enyew DB, Erku DA, Ezzeddini R, Fagbamigbe AF, Falzone L, Fetensa G, Fukumoto T, Gaewkhiew P, Gallus S, Gebrehiwot M, Ghashghaee A, Gill PS, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gomez RS, Gorini G, Guimaraes ALS, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Halwani R, Hanif A, Hariyani N, Harorani M, Hasani H, Hassan AM, Hassanipour S, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Herrera-Serna BY, Holla R, Horita N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hussain S, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Isola G, Jaiswal A, Jani CT, Javaheri T, Jayarajah U, Jayaram S, Joseph N, Kadashetti V, Kandaswamy E, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khanali J, Khatib MN, Khayat Kashani HR, Khazeei Tabari MA, Kim MS, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Kumar GA, Kurmi OP, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Ledda C, Lee YH, Libra M, Lim SS, Listl S, Lopukhov PD, Mafi AR, Mahumud RA, Malik AA, Mathur MR, Maulud SQ, Meena JK, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mestrovic T, Mirfakhraie R, Misganaw A, Misra S, Mithra P, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi M, Mohammadi E, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Moraga P, Morrison SD, Mozaffari HR, Mubarik S, Murray CJL, Nair TS, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negru SM, Nggada HA, Nouraei H, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Olagunju AT, Omar Bali A, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pandey A, Pardhan S, Patel J, Pezzani R, Piracha ZZ, Rabiee N, Radhakrishnan V, Radhakrishnan RA, Rahmani AM, Rahmanian V, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rath GK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghinia MS, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Riad A, Roberts TJ, Romero-Rodríguez E, Roshandel G, S M, S N C, Saddik B, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safaei M, Sahebazzamani M, Sahebkar A, Salek Farrokhi A, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Šekerija M, Senthilkumaran S, Seylani A, Shafaat O, Shahsavari HR, Shamsoddin E, Sharew MM, Sharifi-Rad J, Shetty JK, Shivakumar KM, Shobeiri P, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Singh P, Singh JA, Singh G, Sinha DN, Solomon Y, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Taheri Abkenar Y, Talaat IM, Tan KK, Tbakhi A, Thiyagarajan A, Tiyuri A, Tovani-Palone MR, Unnikrishnan B, Vo B, Volovat SR, Wang C, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Xiao H, Yu C, Yuce D, Yunusa I, Zadnik V, Zare I, Zhang ZJ, Zoladl M, Force LM, Hugo FN. The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. JAMA Oncol 2023; 9:1401-1416. [PMID: 37676656 PMCID: PMC10485745 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.2960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023]
Abstract
Importance Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning. Objective To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. Evidence Review The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019. Findings In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia. Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kelly Compton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Rixing Xu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Data and Tooling, Sage Bionetworks, Seattle, Washington
| | - Rashmi Mishra
- Department of Oral Medicine, School of Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mark Thomas Drangsholt
- Department of Oral Medicine, School of Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle
- Oral Medicine Clinic, School of Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Alexander R Kerr
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Pathology, Radiology, and Medicine, College of Dentistry, New York University, New York, New York
| | - Alistair R Acheson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Dan Lu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lindsey E Wallace
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Jonathan M Kocarnik
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Weijia Fu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Frances E Dean
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Mathematics, University of California, Berkeley
| | - Alyssa Pennini
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Tahiya Alam
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Emad Ababneh
- Pathology and Laboratory Medicine Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Sherief Abd-Elsalam
- Tropical Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt
| | - Meriem Abdoun
- Department of Medicine, University of Setif Algeria, Setif, Algeria
| | - Hassan Abidi
- Laboratory Technology Sciences Department, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran
| | - Hiwa Abubaker Ali
- Department of Banking and Finance, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Eman Abu-Gharbieh
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Tigist Demssew Adane
- Department of Clinical and Psychosocial Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Isaac Yeboah Addo
- Centre for Social Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Quality and Systems Performance Unit, Cancer Institute NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Aqeel Ahmad
- Department of Medical Biochemistry, Shaqra University, Shaqra, Saudi Arabia
| | - Sajjad Ahmad
- Department of Health and Biological Sciences, Abasyn University, Peshawar, Pakistan
| | - Tarik Ahmed Rashid
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Kurdistan Hewler, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Maxwell Akonde
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia
| | - Hanadi Al Hamad
- Geriatric and Long Term Care Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Rumailah Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Fares Alahdab
- Evidence-Based Practice Center Program, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, Minnesota
| | - Yousef Alimohamadi
- Health Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Vahid Alipour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Health Economics, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Zahedan, Iran
| | - Sumadi Lukman Anwar
- Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | | | - Jalal Arabloo
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Aleksandr Y Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Applied Mathematics, College of Arts & Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Raphael Taiwo Aruleba
- Department of Molecular and Cell Biology, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Malke Asaad
- Department of Plastic Surgery, University of Texas, Houston
| | - Tahira Ashraf
- University Institute of Radiological Sciences and Medical Imaging Technology, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - Sameh Attia
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany
| | - Sina Azadnajafabad
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Muhammad Badar
- Gomal Center of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan
| | - Nayereh Baghcheghi
- Department of Nursing, Saveh University of Medical Sciences, Saveh, Iran
| | - Maciej Banach
- Department of Hypertension, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
- Polish Mothers' Memorial Hospital Research Institute, Lodz, Poland
| | - Mainak Bardhan
- Department of Molecular Microbiology and Bacteriology, National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases, Kolkata, India
- Department of Molecular Microbiology, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Hiba Jawdat Barqawi
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Nasir Z Bashir
- School of Oral and Dental Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, England, United Kingdom
| | - Azadeh Bashiri
- Health Information Management, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Habib Benzian
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, College of Dentistry, New York University, New York, New York
| | - Eduardo Bernabe
- Faculty of Dentistry, Oral & Craniofacial Sciences, King's College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Devidas S Bhagat
- Department of Forensic Chemistry, Government Institute of Forensic Science, Aurangabad, India
| | - Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja
- Department of Anatomy, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland Medical, University of Bahrain, Busaiteen, Bahrain
| | - Tone Bjørge
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | - Souad Bouaoud
- Department of Medicine, University Ferhat Abbas of Setif, Setif, Algeria
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, University Hospital Saadna Abdenour, Setif, Algeria
| | - Dejana Braithwaite
- Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions and College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville
- Cancer Control and Population Sciences Program, University of Florida Health Cancer Center, Gainesville
| | - Nikolay Ivanovich Briko
- Department of Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Daniela Calina
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
| | - Giulia Carreras
- Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network, Florence, Italy
| | - Promit Ananyo Chakraborty
- School of Population and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Vijay Kumar Chattu
- Department of Community Medicine, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Sawangi, India
- Saveetha Medical College and Hospitals, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences (SIMATS), Chennai, India
| | - Akhilanand Chaurasia
- Department of Oral Medicine and Radiology, King George's Medical University, Lucknow, India
| | - Meng Xuan Chen
- Department of Oral Biological and Medical Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - William C S Cho
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong, China
| | - Dinh-Toi Chu
- Center for Biomedicine and Community Health, International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Eunice Chung
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Natália Cruz-Martins
- Department of Therapeutic and Diagnostic Technologies, Polytechnic and University Higher Education Cooperative, Gandra, Portugal
- Institute for Research and Innovation in Health, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Omid Dadras
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Section Global Health and Rehabilitation, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Bergen, Norway
| | - Xiaochen Dai
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
- Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Rakhi Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland
- Department of Pathology, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | | | - Aso Mohammad Darwesh
- Department of Information Technology, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | | | | | - Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Madda Walabu University, Bale Goba, Ethiopia
| | - Mostafa Dianati-Nasab
- Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Lankamo Ena Digesa
- Department of Comprehensive Nursing, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia
| | - Shilpi Gupta Dixit
- Department of Anatomy, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Abhinav Dixit
- Department of Physiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Shirin Djalalinia
- Development of Research and Technology Center, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Iman El Sayed
- Department of Biomedical Informatics and Medical Statistics, Medical Research Institute, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Maha El Tantawi
- Department of Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health, Faculty of Dentistry, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | | | - Daniel Asfaw Erku
- Centre for Applied Health Economics, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - Rana Ezzeddini
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- The Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Luca Falzone
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit, National Cancer Institute IRCCS Fondazione G. Pascale, Naples, Italy
- Department of Biomedical and Biotechnological Sciences, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Getahun Fetensa
- Department of Nursing, College of Medical and Health Sciences, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
| | | | - Piyada Gaewkhiew
- Department of Community Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Thailand
- Population and Patient Health Group, King's College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Silvano Gallus
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Milan, Italy
| | - Mesfin Gebrehiwot
- Department of Environmental Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
| | - Ahmad Ghashghaee
- School of Public Health, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
| | - Paramjit Singh Gill
- Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, England, United Kingdom
| | - Mahaveer Golechha
- Department of Health Systems and Policy Research, Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, India
| | - Pouya Goleij
- Department of Genetics, Sana Institute of Higher Education, Sari, Iran
| | - Ricardo Santiago Gomez
- Department of Oral Surgery and Pathology, School of Dentistry, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Giuseppe Gorini
- Oncological Network, Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Bhawna Gupta
- Department of Public Health, Torrens University Australia, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sapna Gupta
- Toxicology Department, Shriram Institute for Industrial Research, Delhi, India
| | - Veer Bala Gupta
- School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Vivek Kumar Gupta
- Faculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Arvin Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Obesity Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Esam S Halboub
- College of Dentistry, Jazan University, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
- School of Dentistry, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - Rabih Halwani
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
- College of Medicine, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Asif Hanif
- University Institute of Public Health, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Ninuk Hariyani
- Department of Dental Public Health, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia
- Australian Research Centre for Population Oral Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Mehdi Harorani
- Department of Nursing, School of Nursing, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
| | - Hamidreza Hasani
- Department of Ophthalmology, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Abbas M Hassan
- Department of Plastic Surgery, University of Texas, Houston
| | - Soheil Hassanipour
- Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
- Caspian Digestive Disease Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Mohammed Bheser Hassen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- National Data Management Center for Health (NDMC), Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Khezar Hayat
- Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
- Department of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | | | - Ramesh Holla
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Nobuyuki Horita
- Department of Pulmonology, Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Japan
- National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
- Department of Computer Science, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Salman Hussain
- Czech National Centre for Evidence-Based Healthcare and Knowledge Translation, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
- Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi
- Department of Community Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Department of Community Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Irena M Ilic
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Milena D Ilic
- Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
| | - Gaetano Isola
- Department of General Surgery and Surgical-Medical Specialties, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Abhishek Jaiswal
- Centre for Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Chinmay T Jani
- Department of Internal Medicine, Mount Auburn Hospital, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
| | - Tahereh Javaheri
- Health Informatics Lab, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Umesh Jayarajah
- Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka
- Department of Surgery, National Hospital of Sri Lanka, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Shubha Jayaram
- Department of Biochemistry, Government Medical College, Mysuru, India
| | - Nitin Joseph
- Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Vidya Kadashetti
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Pathology, Krishna Vishwa Vidyapeeth (Deemed to be University), Karad, India
| | - Eswar Kandaswamy
- Department of Periodontics, School of Dentistry, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans
| | | | - Ibraheem M Karaye
- School of Health Professions and Human Services, Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York
| | - Joonas H Kauppila
- Surgery Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Mohammad Keykhaei
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Students' Scientific Research Center (SSRC), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yousef Saleh Khader
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | - Himanshu Khajuria
- Amity Institute of Forensic Sciences, Amity University, Noida, India
| | - Javad Khanali
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib
- Global Consortium for Public Health Research, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education and Research, Wardha, India
| | | | - Mohammad Amin Khazeei Tabari
- Department of Medicine, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- MAZUMS Office, Universal Scientific Education and Research Network, Tehran, Iran
| | - Min Seo Kim
- Department of Genomics and Digital Health, Samsung Advanced Institute for Health Sciences & Technology (SAIHST), Seoul, South Korea
- Public Health Center, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Wando, South Korea
| | - Farzad Kompani
- Children's Medical Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hamid Reza Koohestani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Saveh University of Medical Sciences, Saveh, Iran
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Om P Kurmi
- Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Coventry University, Coventry, England, United Kingdom
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Carlo La Vecchia
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | | | - Iván Landires
- Unit of Genetics and Public Health, Institute of Medical Sciences, Las Tablas, Panama
- Ministry of Health, Herrera, Panama
| | - Savita Lasrado
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Father Muller Medical College, Mangalore, India
| | - Caterina Ledda
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Yo Han Lee
- Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Massimo Libra
- Department of Biomedical and Biotechnological Sciences, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Stefan Listl
- Department of Dentistry, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
- Department of Translational Health Economics, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Platon D Lopukhov
- Department of Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Ahmad R Mafi
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rashidul Alam Mahumud
- NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Ahmad Azam Malik
- University Institute of Public Health, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
- Rabigh Faculty of Medicine, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Manu Raj Mathur
- Department of Health Policy Research, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
- Institute of Population Health Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, England, United Kingdom
| | - Sazan Qadir Maulud
- Department of Biology, College of Science, Salahaddin University, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Jitendra Kumar Meena
- Department of Preventive Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Tomislav Mestrovic
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- University Centre Varazdin, University North, Varazdin, Croatia
| | - Reza Mirfakhraie
- Department of Genetics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Awoke Misganaw
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- National Data Management Center for Health, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Sanjeev Misra
- Department of Surgical Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Prasanna Mithra
- Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Yousef Mohammad
- Internal Medicine Department, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mokhtar Mohammadi
- Department of Information Technology, Lebanese French University, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Esmaeil Mohammadi
- Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Faculty of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mohammad Ali Moni
- School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Shane Douglas Morrison
- Division of Facial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hamid Reza Mozaffari
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Medicine, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Sumaira Mubarik
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Hasan Nassereldine
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Zuhair S Natto
- Department of Dental Public Health, Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Oral Health Policy and Epidemiology, School of Dental Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | - Serban Mircea Negru
- Department of Oncology, Victor Babes University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Timisoara, Romania
| | - Haruna Asura Nggada
- Department of Histopathology, University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, Maiduguri, Nigeria
- Department of Human Pathology, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria
| | - Hasti Nouraei
- Department of Medical Mycology and Parasitology, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Virginia Nuñez-Samudio
- Unit of Microbiology and Public Health, Institute of Medical Sciences, Las Tablas, Panama
- Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Herrera, Panama
| | - Bogdan Oancea
- Department of Applied Economics and Quantitative Analysis, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Andrew T Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Clinical Science, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Ahmed Omar Bali
- Diplomacy and Public Relations Department, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | | | - Jagadish Rao Padubidri
- Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | | | - Shahina Pardhan
- Vision and Eye Research Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
| | - Jay Patel
- Global Health Governance Programme, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
- School of Dentistry, University of Leeds, Leeds, England, United Kingdom
| | - Raffaele Pezzani
- Endocrinology Unit, Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
- Associazione Italiana Ricerca Oncologica di Base (AIROB), Padova, Italy
| | | | - Navid Rabiee
- School of Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea
| | | | | | - Amir Masoud Rahmani
- Future Technology Research Center, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Yunlin, Taiwan
| | - Vahid Rahmanian
- Department of Public Health, Torbat Jam Faculty of Medical Sciences, Torbat Jam, Iran
| | - Chythra R Rao
- Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Manipal, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Sowmya J Rao
- Department of Oral Pathology and Microbiology, Sharavathi Dental College and Hospital, Shimogga, India
| | - Goura Kishor Rath
- Department of Radiation Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - David Laith Rawaf
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training, Imperial College London, London, England, United Kingdom
- Inovus Medical, St Helens, England, United Kingdom
| | - Salman Rawaf
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, England, United Kingdom
- Academic Public Health England, Public Health England, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Reza Rawassizadeh
- Department of Computer Science, College of Arts & Sciences, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia
- Department of Immunology and Laboratory Sciences, Sirjan School of Medical Sciences, Sirjan, Iran
- Department of Immunology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Nazila Rezaei
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Negar Rezaei
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Nima Rezaei
- Research Center for Immunodeficiencies, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Network of Immunity in Infection, Malignancy and Autoimmunity (NIIMA), Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN), Tehran, Iran
| | - Aziz Rezapour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abanoub Riad
- Department of Public Health, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
- Czech National Centre for Evidence-based Healthcare and Knowledge Translation, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Thomas J Roberts
- Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Esperanza Romero-Rodríguez
- Clinical and Epidemiological Research in Primary Care (GICEAP), Maimonides Biomedical Research Institute of Cordoba (IMIBIC), Cordoba, Spain
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Manjula S
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, JSS Academy of Higher Education and Research, Mysore, India
| | - Chandan S N
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, JSS Academy of Higher Education and Research, Mysore, India
| | - Basema Saddik
- Sharjah Institute for Medical Research, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Mohammad Reza Saeb
- Department of Polymer Technology, Faculty of Chemistry, Gdańsk University of Technology, Gdańsk, Poland
| | - Umar Saeed
- International Center of Medical Sciences Research, Islamabad, Pakistan
- Multidisciplinary Laboratory Foundation University School of Health Sciences (FUSH), Foundation University, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Mohsen Safaei
- Advanced Dental Sciences Research Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Maryam Sahebazzamani
- Department of Medical Biochemistry, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran
- Medical Laboratory Sciences, Sirjan School of Medical Sciences, Sirjan, Iran
| | - Amirhossein Sahebkar
- Applied Biomedical Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
- Biotechnology Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | | | - Abdallah M Samy
- Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
- Medical Ain Shams Research Institute (MARSI), Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Milena M Santric-Milicevic
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
- School of Public Health and Health Management, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Brijesh Sathian
- Geriatric and Long Term Care Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Faculty of Health and Social Sciences, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, England, United Kingdom
| | - Maheswar Satpathy
- UGC Centre of Advanced Study in Psychology, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, India
- Udyam-Global Association for Sustainable Development, Bhubaneswar, India
| | - Mario Šekerija
- Department of Medical Statistics, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
- Department of Epidemiology and Prevention of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases, Croatian Institute of Public Health, Zagreb, Croatia
| | | | - Allen Seylani
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Omid Shafaat
- Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland
- Department of Radiology and Interventional Neuroradiology, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Hamid R Shahsavari
- Department of Chemistry, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Zanjan, Iran
| | - Erfan Shamsoddin
- Department of Oral Health, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center (NCDRC), Tehran, Iran
- Non-Communicable Diseases Committee, National Institute for Medical Research Development (NIMAD), Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Jeevan K Shetty
- Department of Biochemistry, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland Medical University of Bahrain, Busaiteen, Bahrain
| | - K M Shivakumar
- Department of Public Health Dentistry, Krishna Vishwa Vidyapeeth (Deemed to be University), Karad, India
| | - Parnian Shobeiri
- Faculty of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of International Studies, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center (NCDRC), Tehran, Iran
| | - Seyed Afshin Shorofi
- Department of Medical-Surgical Nursing, Nasibeh School of Nursing and Midwifery, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Sunil Shrestha
- School of Pharmacy, Monash University, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia
| | | | - Paramdeep Singh
- Department of Radiodiagnosis, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bathinda, India
| | - Jasvinder A Singh
- Heersink School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham
- Department of Medicine Service, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Birmingham, Alabama
| | - Garima Singh
- Department of Community Medicine, Lady Hardinge Medical College, New Delhi, India
- Department of Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Dhirendra Narain Sinha
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Preventive Oncology, Patna, India
- Department of Epidemiology, Healis Sekhsaria Institute for Public Health, Mumbai, India
| | - Yonatan Solomon
- Department of Nursing, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
| | - Muhammad Suleman
- Center for Biotechnology and Microbiology, University of Swat, Mingora, Pakistan
- School of Life Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | | | | | - Iman M Talaat
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
- Pathology Department, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Ker-Kan Tan
- Department of Surgery, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Abdelghani Tbakhi
- Department of Cell Therapy and Applied Genomics, King Hussein Cancer Center, Amman, Jordan
| | - Arulmani Thiyagarajan
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology, Bremen, Germany
| | - Amir Tiyuri
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone
- Saveetha Dental College and Hospitals, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences (SIMATS), Chennai, India
- Modestum LTD, Eastbourne, England, United Kingdom
| | - Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Bay Vo
- Faculty of Information Technology, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HUTECH), Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Simona Ruxandra Volovat
- Department of Medical Oncology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Grigore T Popa" Iaşi, Iaşi, Romania
- Department of Medical Oncology, Regional Institute of Oncology, Iaşi, Romania
| | - Cong Wang
- Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Ronny Westerman
- Competence Center of Mortality-Follow-Up of the German National Cohort, Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
| | - Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Allied Sciences, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, Anuradhapura, Sri Lanka
| | - Hong Xiao
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang, China
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Deniz Yuce
- Hacettepe University Cancer Institute, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, College of Pharmacy, University of South Carolina, Columbia
| | - Vesna Zadnik
- Epidemiology and Cancer Registry Sector, Institute of Oncology Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Iman Zare
- Research and Development Department, Sina Medical Biochemistry Technologies, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Zhi-Jiang Zhang
- School of Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Mohammad Zoladl
- Department of Nursing, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences, Yasuj, Iran
| | - Lisa M Force
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Division of Hematology-Oncology, Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Fernando N Hugo
- Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
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Kim MS, Hwang J, Yon DK, Lee SW, Jung SY, Park S, Johnson CO, Stark BA, Razo C, Abbasian M, Abbastabar H, Abhari AP, Aboyans V, Adane DEA, Adebayo OM, Alahdab F, Almustanyir S, Aly H, Ameyaw EK, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Aryan Z, Aujayeb A, Bagherieh S, Baltatu OC, Banach M, Bayileyegn NS, Bearne LM, Behnoush AH, Bensenor IM, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bhat V, Bikbov B, Bintoro BS, Burkart K, Cámera LA, Catapano AL, Chandrasekar EK, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chi G, Chukwu IS, Chung SC, Cirillo M, Coberly K, Costa VM, Dadras O, Dai X, Do TC, Doshi R, Ekholuenetale M, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, Fagbamigbe AF, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Gill PS, Goldust M, Golechha M, Guan SY, Gupta VK, Hadei M, Hadi NR, Hammoud A, Hankey GJ, Harlianto NI, Hasaballah AI, Hassan S, Hassen MB, Heidari G, Hostiuc M, Ilesanmi OS, Iwagami M, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Kazemian S, Keykhaei M, Khalaji A, Khan MAB, Khateri S, Kibret BG, Korzh O, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Kumar A, Kumar M, Kuttikkattu A, Laksono T, Larijani B, Le TTT, Lim SS, Liu X, Lorkowski S, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Malhotra K, Manla Y, Maugeri A, Mentis AFA, Mestrovic T, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra M, Mohammad Y, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Montasir AA, Moradi Y, Moraga P, Morovatdar N, Mousavi-Aghdas SA, Murray CJL, Naghavi M, Nair TS, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HQ, Nguyen VT, Noubiap JJ, Oancea B, Oliveira GMM, Owolabi MO, Padron-Monedero A, Perico N, Petcu IR, Radfar A, Rafferty Q, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Ram P, Rashedi S, Rashid AM, Rawaf S, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Rezaee M, Roever L, Saad AMA, Saadatagah S, Sadeghi M, Sahebkar A, Saleh MA, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Sharfaei S, Shorofi SA, Singh JA, Singh P, Spartalis M, Sundström J, Tan KK, Teramoto M, Tharwat S, Tyrovolas S, Valadan Tahbaz S, Van den Eynde J, Vart P, Wang C, Wang F, Westerman R, Xia J, Xu S, Yada DY, Yamagishi K, Yonemoto N, Zahir M, Zangiabadian M, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zoladl M, Hay SI, Shin JI, Roth GA. Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Glob Health 2023; 11:e1553-e1565. [PMID: 37734799 PMCID: PMC10522777 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00355-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2023] [Revised: 07/11/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures. METHODS Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed. FINDINGS In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles. INTERPRETATION The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Gómez MJ, Barboza LA, Vásquez P, Moraga P. Bayesian spatial modeling of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence in Costa Rica. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:651. [PMID: 37016373 PMCID: PMC10074779 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-15486-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2023] [Indexed: 04/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Childhood overweight and obesity levels are rising and becoming a concern globally. In Costa Rica, the prevalence of these conditions has reached alarming values. Spatial analyses can identify risk factors and geographical patterns to develop tailored and effective public health actions in this context. METHODS A Bayesian spatial mixed model was built to understand the geographic patterns of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence in Costa Rica and their association with some socioeconomic factors. Data was obtained from the 2016 Weight and Size Census (6 - 12 years old children) and 2011 National Census. RESULTS Average years of schooling increase the levels of overweight and obesity until reaching an approximate value of 8 years, then they start to decrease. Moreover, for every 10-point increment in the percentage of homes with difficulties to cover their basic needs and in the percentage of population under 14 years old, there is a decrease of 7.7 and 14.0 points, respectively, in the odds of obesity. Spatial patterns show higher values of prevalence in the center area of the country, touristic destinations, head of province districts and in the borders with Panama. CONCLUSIONS Especially for childhood obesity, the average years of schooling is a non-linear factor, describing a U-inverted curve. Lower percentages of households in poverty and population under 14 years old are slightly associated with higher levels of obesity. Districts with high commercial and touristic activity present higher prevalence risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mario J Gómez
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
| | - Luis A Barboza
- Centro de Investigación en Matemática Pura y Aplicada-Escuela de Matemática, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica
| | - Paola Vásquez
- Centro de Investigación en Matemática Pura y Aplicada, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
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Masrani AS, Nik Husain NR, Musa KI, Moraga P, Ismail MT. The Changing Trend of Paediatric Emergency Department Visits in Malaysia Following the COVID-19 Pandemic. Cureus 2023; 15:e36512. [PMID: 36968682 PMCID: PMC10038692 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.36512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/22/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted the emergency department (ED) due to the surge in medical demand and changes in the characteristics of paediatric visits. Additionally, the trend for paediatric ED visits has decreased globally, secondary to implementing lockdowns to stop the spread of COVID-19. We aim to study the trend and characteristics of paediatric ED visits following Malaysia's primary timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and materials A five-year time series observational study of paediatric ED patients from two tertiary hospitals in Malaysia was conducted from March 17, 2017 (week 11 2017) to March 17, 2022 (week 12 2022). Aggregated weekly data were analysed using R statistical software version 4.2.2 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) against significant events during the COVID-19 pandemic to detect influential changepoints in the trend. The data collected were the number of ED visits, triage severity, visit outcomes and ED discharge diagnosis. Results Overall, 175,737 paediatric ED visits were recorded with a median age of three years and predominantly males (56.8%). A 57.57% (p<0.00) reduction in the average weekly ED visits was observed during the Movement Control Order (MCO) period. Despite the increase in the proportion of urgent (odds ratio (OR): 1.23, p<0.00) and emergent or life-threatening (OR: 1.79, p<0.00) cases, the proportion of admissions decreased. Whilst the changepoints during the MCO indicated a rise in respiratory, fever or other infectious diseases, or gastrointestinal conditions, diagnosis of complications originating from the perinatal period declined from July 19, 2021 (week 29 2021). Conclusion The incongruent change in disease severity and hospital admission reflects the potential effects of the healthcare system reform and socioeconomic impact as the pandemic evolves. Future studies on parental motivation to seek emergency medical attention may provide insight into the timing and choice of healthcare service utilisation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Afiqah Syamimi Masrani
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kota Bharu, MYS
| | - Nik Rosmawati Nik Husain
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kota Bharu, MYS
| | - Kamarul Imran Musa
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kota Bharu, MYS
| | - Paula Moraga
- Division of Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, SAU
| | - Mohd Tahir Ismail
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Pulau Pinang, MYS
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Arango-Londoño D, Ortega-Lenis D, Moraga P, Torres M, Rodríguez-Cortés FJ. Spatial modeling and socioeconomic inequities of COVID-19 in the urban area of the city of Cali, Colombia. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2023; 44:100561. [PMID: 36707197 PMCID: PMC9756648 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2022.100561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2022] [Revised: 09/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
COVID-19 has spread worldwide with a high variability in cases and mortality between populations. This research aims to assess socioeconomic inequities of COVID-19 in the city of Cali, Colombia, during the first and second peaks of the pandemic in this city. An ecological study by neighborhoods was carried out, were COVID-19 cases were analyzed using a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model that includes potential risk factors such as the index of unsatisfied basic needs and socioeconomic variables as well as random effects to account for residual variation. Maps showing the geographic patterns of the estimated relative risks as well as exceedance probabilities were created. The results indicate that in the first wave, the neighborhoods with the greatest unsatisfied basic needs and low socioeconomic strata, were more likely to report positive cases for COVID-19. For the second wave, the disease begins to spread through different neighborhoods of the city and middle socioeconomic strata presents the highest risk followed by the lower strata. These findings indicate the importance of measuring social determinants in the study of the distribution of cases due to COVID-19 for its inclusion in the interventions and measures implemented to contain contagions and reduce impacts on the most vulnerable populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Arango-Londoño
- Faculty of Engineering and Science, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Cali, Colombia.
| | - Delia Ortega-Lenis
- Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Cali, Colombia.
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia.
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Haeuser E, Serfes AL, Cork MA, Yang M, Abbastabar H, Abhilash ES, Adabi M, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adeyinka DA, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Akalu Y, Akinyemi RO, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alene KA, Alhassan RK, Alipour V, Almasi-Hashiani A, Alvis-Guzman N, Ameyaw EK, Amini S, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anvari D, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Asemahagn MA, Jafarabadi MA, Awedew AF, Quintanilla BPA, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azene ZN, Darshan BB, Babalola TK, Baig AA, Banach M, Bärnighausen TW, Bell AW, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bijani A, Bitew ZW, Bohlouli S, Bolarinwa OA, Boloor A, Bozicevic I, Butt ZA, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chowdhury MAK, Chu DT, Cowden RG, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Darteh EKM, Darwesh AM, das Neves J, Weaver ND, De Leo D, De Neve JW, Deribe K, Deuba K, Dharmaratne S, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Didarloo A, Djalalinia S, Dorostkar F, Dubljanin E, Duko B, El Tantawi M, El-Jaafary SI, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Eyawo O, Ezeonwumelu IJ, Ezzikouri S, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fauk NK, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gebregiorgis BG, Gebremedhin KB, Getacher L, Ghadiri K, Ghashghaee A, Golechha M, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guimarães RA, Haider MR, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hashi A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hayat K, Herteliu C, Ho HC, Holla R, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Islam RM, Iwu CCD, Jakovljevic M, Jha RP, Ji JS, Johnson KB, Joseph N, Joshua V, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamyari N, Kanchan T, Matin BK, Karimi SE, Kayode GA, Karyani AK, Keramati M, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan MN, Khatab K, Khubchandani J, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Laxminarayana SLK, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Defo BK, Kugbey N, Kulkarni V, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Landires I, Larson HJ, Lasrado S, Lee PH, Li S, Liu X, Maleki A, Malik P, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mirica A, Moazen B, Mohamad O, Mohammad Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moradi M, Moraga P, Mubarik S, Mulu GBB, Mwanri L, Nagarajan AJ, Naimzada MD, Naveed M, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Negoi I, Ngalesoni FN, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nwatah VE, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Bali AO, Onwujekwe OE, Orisakwe OE, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, Mahesh PA, Padubidri JR, Pana A, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Kan FP, Patton GC, Pawar S, Peprah EK, Postma MJ, Preotescu L, Syed ZQ, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahmani AM, Ramezanzadeh K, Rana J, Ranabhat CL, Rao SJ, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Regassa LD, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Riaz MA, Ribeiro AI, Ross JM, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Rwegerera GM, Moghaddam SS, Sagar R, Sahiledengle B, Sahu M, Salem MR, Kafil HS, Samy AM, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Seidu AA, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shamsizadeh M, Shiferaw WS, Shin JI, Shrestha R, Singh JA, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soltani S, Sufiyan MB, Tabuchi T, Tadesse EG, Taveira N, Tesfay FH, Thapar R, Tovani-Palone MR, Tsegaye GW, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Villafañe JH, Violante FS, Vo B, Vu GT, Wado YD, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang Y, Ward P, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilson K, Yaya S, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Hay SI, Dwyer-Lindgren L. Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018. BMC Med 2022; 20:488. [PMID: 36529768 PMCID: PMC9760541 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02639-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/26/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA. METHODS We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. CONCLUSIONS As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily Haeuser
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Audrey L Serfes
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michael A Cork
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Mingyou Yang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Hedayat Abbastabar
- Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - E S Abhilash
- Department of Botany, Sree Narayana Guru College Chelannur, Kozhikode, India
| | - Maryam Adabi
- Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
| | | | - Victor Adekanmbi
- Department of Population Medicine, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka
- Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
- Department of Public Health, Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Saira Afzal
- Department of Community Medicine, King Edward Memorial Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan
- Department of Public Health, Public Health Institute, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Bright Opoku Ahinkorah
- The Australian Centre for Public and Population Health Research (ACPPHR), University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Keivan Ahmadi
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Muktar Beshir Ahmed
- Department of Epidemiology, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
- Australian Center for Precision Health, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Yonas Akalu
- Department of Medical Physiology, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Rufus Olusola Akinyemi
- Institute for Advanced Medical Research and Training, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Institute of Neuroscience, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna
- Department of Public Health, The Intercountry Centre for Oral Health (ICOH) for Africa, Jos, Nigeria
- Department of Public Health, Federal Ministry of Health, Garki, Nigeria
| | - Fares Alahdab
- Mayo Evidence-based Practice Center, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, MN, USA
| | | | - Turki M Alanzi
- Health Information Management and Technology Department, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | - Kefyalew Addis Alene
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
- Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Robert Kaba Alhassan
- Institute of Health Research, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana
| | - Vahid Alipour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Health Economics, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Nelson Alvis-Guzman
- Research Group in Hospital Management and Health Policies, Universidad de la Costa (University of the Coast), Barranquilla, Colombia
- Research Group in Health Economics, University of Cartagena, Cartagena, Colombia
| | - Edward Kwabena Ameyaw
- The Australian Centre for Public and Population Health Research (ACPPHR), University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Saeed Amini
- Department of Health Services Management, Khomein University of Medical Sciences, Khomein, Iran
| | - Dickson A Amugsi
- Department of Maternal and Child Wellbeing, African Population and Health Research Center, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Robert Ancuceanu
- Pharmacy Department, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Davood Anvari
- Department of Parasitology, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- Department of Parasitology, Iranshahr University of Medical Sciences, Iranshahr, Iran
| | - Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah
- Department of Sociology and Social Work, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
- Center for International Health, Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich, Germany
| | - Jalal Arabloo
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olatunde Aremu
- Department of Public Health, Birmingham City University, Birmingham, UK
| | | | - Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
| | | | | | - Martin Amogre Ayanore
- Department of Health Policy Planning and Management, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana
- Department of Health Economics, Centre for Health Policy Advocacy Innovation & Research in Africa (CHPAIR-Africa), Accra, Ghana
| | | | - Samad Azari
- Hospital Management Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - B B Darshan
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Tesleem Kayode Babalola
- Discipline of Public Health Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Community Health and Primary Care, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Atif Amin Baig
- Unit of Biochemistry, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (Sultan Zainal Abidin University), Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Maciej Banach
- Department of Hypertension, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
- Polish Mothers' Memorial Hospital Research Institute, Lodz, Poland
| | - Till Winfried Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Arielle Wilder Bell
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Social Services, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula
- Department of Social and Clinical Pharmacy, Charles University, Hradec Kralova, Czech Republic
- Institute of Public Health, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | - Nikha Bhardwaj
- Department of Anatomy, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Pankaj Bhardwaj
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
- School of Public Health, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Krittika Bhattacharyya
- Department of Statistical and Computational Genomics, National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani, India
- Department of Statistics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India
| | - Ali Bijani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Zebenay Workneh Bitew
- Nutrition Department, St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Somayeh Bohlouli
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran
| | | | - Archith Boloor
- Department of Internal Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Ivana Bozicevic
- WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Strategic Information, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
- Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Zahid A Butt
- School of Public Health and Health Systems, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
- Al Shifa School of Public Health, Al Shifa Trust Eye Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Rosario Cárdenas
- Department of Health Care, Metropolitan Autonomous University, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Felix Carvalho
- Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences (UCIBIO), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Jaykaran Charan
- Department of Pharmacology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Vijay Kumar Chattu
- Department of Community Medicine, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Sawangi, India
- Saveetha Medical College, Saveetha University, Chennai, India
| | - Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury
- James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Dinh-Toi Chu
- Center for Biomedicine and Community Health, VNU-International School, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Richard G Cowden
- Department of Psychology, University of the Free State, Park West, South Africa
| | - Saad M A Dahlawi
- Environmental Health Department, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | - Giovanni Damiani
- IRCCS Istituto Ortopedico Galeazzi (Galeazzi Orthopedic Institute IRCCS), University of Milan, Milan, Italy
- Department of Dermatology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | | | - Aso Mohammad Darwesh
- Department of Information Technology, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - José das Neves
- Institute for Research and Innovation in Health, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Institute of Biomedical Engineering (INEB), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Nicole Davis Weaver
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Diego De Leo
- Australian Institute for Suicide Research and Prevention, Griffith University, Mount Gravatt, QLD, Australia
| | - Jan-Walter De Neve
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Kebede Deribe
- Wellcome Trust Brighton and Sussex Centre for Global Health Research, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Brighton, UK
- School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Keshab Deuba
- National Centre for AIDS and STD Control, Save the Children, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Samath Dharmaratne
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Mostafa Dianatinasab
- Department of Epidemiology, Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Daniel Diaz
- Center of Complexity Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Autonomous University of Sinaloa, Rosales, Culiacán, Mexico
| | - Alireza Didarloo
- Department of Community Medicine and Public Health, Urmia University of Medical Science, Urmia, Iran
| | - Shirin Djalalinia
- Development of Research and Technology Center, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Fariba Dorostkar
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Eleonora Dubljanin
- Institute of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Bereket Duko
- School of Public Health, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Maha El Tantawi
- Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health Department, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | | | - Babak Eshrati
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Sharareh Eskandarieh
- Multiple Sclerosis Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu
- Institute for Health Science Research Germans Trias i Pujol, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Badalona, Spain
- IrsiCaixa AIDS Research Institute, Badalona, Spain
| | - Sayeh Ezzikouri
- Department of Virology, Pasteur Institute of Morocco, Casablanca, Morocco
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Nazir Fattahi
- Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Nelsensius Klau Fauk
- Torrens University Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia
- Institute of Resource Governance and Social Change, Kupang, Indonesia
| | - Eduarda Fernandes
- Associated Laboratory for Green Chemistry (LAQV), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Irina Filip
- Psychiatry Department, Kaiser Permanente, Fontana, CA, USA
- School of Health Sciences, A.T. Still University, Mesa, AZ, USA
| | - Florian Fischer
- Institute of Public Health, Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin (Charité Medical University Berlin), Berlin, Germany
| | - Nataliya A Foigt
- Institute of Gerontology, National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
| | - Masoud Foroutan
- Department of Medical Parasitology, Abadan University of Medical Sciences, Abadan, Iran
- Faculty of Medicine, Abadan University of Medical Sciences, Abadan, Iran
| | | | - Mohamed M Gad
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA
- Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | | | | | | | - Lemma Getacher
- Department of Public Health, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
| | - Keyghobad Ghadiri
- Infectious Disease Research Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
- Pediatric Department, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Ahmad Ghashghaee
- School of Public Health, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
| | - Mahaveer Golechha
- Health Systems and Policy Research, Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, India
| | | | - Harish Chander Gugnani
- Department of Microbiology, Saint James School of Medicine, The Valley, Anguilla
- Department of Epidemiology, Saint James School of Medicine, The Valley, Anguilla
| | | | | | - Arvin Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Obesity Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Samer Hamidi
- School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - Abdiwahab Hashi
- Department of Public Health, Jigjiga University, Jijiga, Ethiopia
| | - Soheil Hassanipour
- Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
- Caspian Digestive Disease Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Hadi Hassankhani
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Independent Consultant, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Khezar Hayat
- Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
- Department of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, Xian Jiaotong University, Xian, China
| | - Claudiu Herteliu
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
- School of Business, London South Bank University, London, UK
| | - Hung Chak Ho
- Department of Urban Planning and Design, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Ramesh Holla
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Mostafa Hosseini
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
- Department of Computer Science, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Bing-Fang Hwang
- Department of Occupational Safety and Health, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | | | - Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Department of Community Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Irena M Ilic
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Milena D Ilic
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
| | - Rakibul M Islam
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Chidozie C D Iwu
- School of Health Systems and Public Health, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Mihajlo Jakovljevic
- Institute of Advanced Manufacturing Technologies, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russia
- Institute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Ravi Prakash Jha
- Department of Community Medicine, Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Medical College & Hospital, Delhi, India
- Department of Community Medicine, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
| | - John S Ji
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Kimberly B Johnson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nitin Joseph
- Department of Community Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Vasna Joshua
- National Institute of Epidemiology, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, India
| | - Farahnaz Joukar
- Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
- Caspian Digestive Disease Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Opole, Opole, Poland
| | - Leila R Kalankesh
- School of Management and Medical Informatics, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Rohollah Kalhor
- Institute for Prevention of Non-communicable Diseases, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
- Health Services Management Department, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
| | - Naser Kamyari
- Department of Biostatistics, Abadan University of Medical Sciences, Abadan, Iran
| | - Tanuj Kanchan
- Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Behzad Karami Matin
- Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Salah Eddin Karimi
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Gbenga A Kayode
- International Research Center of Excellence, Institute of Human Virology Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria
- Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Ali Kazemi Karyani
- Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | | | - Ejaz Ahmad Khan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Gulfaraz Khan
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Immunology, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | - Md Nuruzzaman Khan
- Department of Population Science, Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh
| | - Khaled Khatab
- Faculty of Health and Wellbeing, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, UK
- College of Arts and Sciences, Ohio University, Zanesville, OH, USA
| | | | - Yun Jin Kim
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xiamen University Malaysia, Sepang, Malaysia
| | - Adnan Kisa
- School of Health Sciences, Kristiania University College, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Sezer Kisa
- Department of Nursing and Health Promotion, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway
| | - Jacek A Kopec
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Arthritis Research Canada, Richmond, Canada
| | | | | | - Ai Koyanagi
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network (CIBERSAM), San Juan de Dios Sanitary Park, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Kewal Krishan
- Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India
| | - Barthelemy Kuate Defo
- Department of Demography, University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Montreal, Montreal, Canada
| | - Nuworza Kugbey
- University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya, Ghana
| | - Vaman Kulkarni
- Department of Community Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Manasi Kumar
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
- Division of Psychology and Language Sciences, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nithin Kumar
- Department of Community Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Dian Kusuma
- Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia
| | - Carlo La Vecchia
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | | | - Iván Landires
- Unit of Genetics and Public Health, Institute of Medical Sciences, Las Tablas, Panama
- Ministry of Health, Herrera, Panama
| | - Heidi Jane Larson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Savita Lasrado
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Father Muller Medical College, Mangalore, India
| | - Paul H Lee
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Shanshan Li
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Xuefeng Liu
- Lerner Research Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA
- Department of Quantitative Health Science, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Afshin Maleki
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Environmental Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Preeti Malik
- Department of Pediatrics, Montefiore Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Mohammad Ali Mansournia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Walter Mendoza
- Peru Country Office, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Lima, Peru
| | - Ritesh G Menezes
- Forensic Medicine Division, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Tuomo J Meretoja
- Breast Surgery Unit, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
- University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Tomislav Mestrovic
- Clinical Microbiology and Parasitology Unit, Dr. Zora Profozic Polyclinic, Zagreb, Croatia
- University Centre Varazdin, University North, Varazdin, Croatia
| | - Andreea Mirica
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Babak Moazen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Institute of Addiction Research (ISFF), Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Frankfurt, Germany
| | - Osama Mohamad
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Yousef Mohammad
- Internal Medicine Department, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | - Salahuddin Mohammed
- Department of Biomolecular Sciences, University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS, USA
- Department of Pharmacy, Mizan-Tepi University, Mizan, Ethiopia
| | - Shafiu Mohammed
- Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
- Department of Health Care Management, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Masoud Moradi
- Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical, and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Sumaira Mubarik
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Getaneh Baye B Mulu
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
| | - Lillian Mwanri
- College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adeaide, SA, Australia
| | - Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan
- Research and Analytics Department, Initiative for Financing Health and Human Development, Chennai, India
- Department of Research and Analytics, Bioinsilico Technologies, Chennai, India
| | - Mukhammad David Naimzada
- Laboratory of Public Health Indicators Analysis and Health Digitalization, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russia
- Experimental Surgery and Oncology Laboratory, Kursk State Medical University, Kursk, Russia
| | - Muhammad Naveed
- Department of Biotechnology, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Javad Nazari
- Department of Pediatrics, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
| | - Rawlance Ndejjo
- Department of Disease Control and Environmental Health, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Ionut Negoi
- Department of General Surgery, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
- Department of General Surgery, Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Frida N Ngalesoni
- Ministry of Health, Community Development, Gender, Elderly and Children, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | | | | | - Cuong Tat Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Chukwudi A Nnaji
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Jean Jacques Noubiap
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Virginia Nuñez-Samudio
- Unit of Microbiology and Public Health, Institute of Medical Sciences, Las Tablas, Panama
- Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Herrera, Panama
| | - Vincent Ebuka Nwatah
- Department of Pediatrics, National Hospital, Abuja, Nigeria
- Department of International Public Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Bogdan Oancea
- Administrative and Economic Sciences Department, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya
- Department of Community Health and Primary Care, University of Lagos, Idi Araba, Nigeria
- Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | - Andrew T Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | | | | | | | - Ahmed Omar Bali
- Diplomacy and Public Relations Department, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Obinna E Onwujekwe
- Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Enugu, Nigeria
| | | | - Nikita Otstavnov
- Laboratory of Public Health Indicators Analysis and Health Digitalization, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russia
| | - Stanislav S Otstavnov
- Laboratory of Public Health Indicators Analysis and Health Digitalization, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russia
- Department of Project Management, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
| | - Mayowa O Owolabi
- Department of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Department of Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - P A Mahesh
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Jagadguru Sri Shivarathreeswara Academy of Health Education and Research, Mysore, India
| | - Jagadish Rao Padubidri
- Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Adrian Pana
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Health Metrics, Center for Health Outcomes & Evaluation, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Ashok Pandey
- Research Department, Nepal Health Research Council, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Research Department, Public Health Research Society Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | | | | | - George C Patton
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Population Health Theme, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Shrikant Pawar
- Department of Genetics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Emmanuel K Peprah
- School of Global Public Health, New York University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Maarten J Postma
- University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
- School of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
| | - Liliana Preotescu
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Bucuresti, Romania
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Zahiruddin Quazi Syed
- Department of Community Medicine, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, India
| | - Navid Rabiee
- School of Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea
| | - Amir Radfar
- College of Medicine, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA
| | - Alireza Rafiei
- Department of Immunology, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- Molecular and Cell Biology Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Fakher Rahim
- Metabolomics and Genomics Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Amir Masoud Rahmani
- Future Technology Research Center, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Yunlin, Taiwan
| | - Kiana Ramezanzadeh
- Department of Pharmacology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Juwel Rana
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
- Research and Innovation Division, South Asian Institute for Social Transformation (SAIST), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Chhabi Lal Ranabhat
- Research Department, Policy Research Institute, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Health and Public Policy Department, Global Center for Research and Development, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Sowmya J Rao
- Department of Oral Pathology, Sharavathi Dental College and Hospital, Shimogga, India
| | - David Laith Rawaf
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training, Imperial College London, London, UK
- University College London Hospitals, London, UK
| | - Salman Rawaf
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Academic Public Health England, Public Health England, London, UK
| | | | | | - Nima Rezaei
- Research Center for Immunodeficiencies, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Network of Immunity in Infection, Malignancy and Autoimmunity (NIIMA), Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN), Tehran, Iran
| | - Aziz Rezapour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mavra A Riaz
- Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (Sultan Zainal Abidin University), Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Ana Isabel Ribeiro
- Epidemiology Research Unit (EPIUnit), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Jennifer M Ross
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Enrico Rubagotti
- African Genome Center, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Ben Guerir, Morocco
- Centro de Investigaciones en Anomalías Congénitas y Enfermedades Raras (Center for Research in Congenital Anomalies and Rare Diseases), Universidad ICESI (ICESI University), Cali, Colombia
| | - Susan Fred Rumisha
- Malaria Atlas Project, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Australia
- Department of Health Statistics, National Institute for Medical Research, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | | | - Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rajesh Sagar
- Department of Psychiatry, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Maitreyi Sahu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marwa Rashad Salem
- Public Health and Community Medicine Department, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
| | - Hossein Samadi Kafil
- Drug Applied Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Abdallah M Samy
- Department of Entomology, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Benn Sartorius
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Brijesh Sathian
- Geriatric and Long Term Care Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Faculty of Health & Social Sciences, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, UK
| | - Abdul-Aziz Seidu
- Department of Population and Health, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, QLD, Townsville, Australia
| | - Amira A Shaheen
- Public Health Division, An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine
| | | | - Morteza Shamsizadeh
- Faculty of Caring Science, Work Life, and Social Welfare, University of Borås, Borås, Sweden
| | | | - Jae Il Shin
- College of Medicine, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Roman Shrestha
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Jasvinder A Singh
- School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
- Medicine Service, US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), Birmingham, AL, USA
| | | | - Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology, Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Shahin Soltani
- Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | | | - Takahiro Tabuchi
- Cancer Control Center, Osaka International Cancer Institute, Osaka, Japan
| | | | - Nuno Taveira
- University Institute "Egas Moniz", Monte da Caparica, Portugal
- Research Institute for Medicines, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Fisaha Haile Tesfay
- School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
- Southgate Institute for Health and Society, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Rekha Thapar
- Department of Community Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone
- Department of Pathology and Legal Medicine, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, Brazil
- Modestum LTD, London, UK
| | | | - Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo
- Department of Community Medicine, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital Abakaliki, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | | | | | - Francesco S Violante
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
- Occupational Health Unit, Sant'Orsola Malpighi Hospital, Bologna, Italy
| | - Bay Vo
- Faculty of Information Technology, HUTECH University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Giang Thu Vu
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Yohannes Dibaba Wado
- Population Dynamics and Sexual and Reproductive Health, African Population and Health Research Center, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Yasir Waheed
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Richard G Wamai
- Department of Cultures, Societies and Global Studies, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
- School of Public Health, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Yanzhong Wang
- School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Paul Ward
- Centre for Health Policy Research, Torrens University Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | | | - Katherine Wilson
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sanni Yaya
- School of International Development and Global Studies, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- The George Institute for Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Paul Yip
- Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Department of Social Work and Social Administration, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Neuropsychopharmacology, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodaira, Japan
- Department of Public Health, Juntendo University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin
- Department of Bioengineering and Therapeutic Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
- Addictology Department, Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education, Moscow, Russia
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
- Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | | | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Laura Dwyer-Lindgren
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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Amaral AVR, González JA, Moraga P. Spatio-temporal modeling of infectious diseases by integrating compartment and point process models. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 2022; 37:1519-1533. [PMID: 36530377 PMCID: PMC9746591 DOI: 10.1007/s00477-022-02354-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Infectious disease modeling plays an important role in understanding disease spreading dynamics and can be used for prevention and control. The well-known SIR (Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) compartment model and spatial and spatio-temporal statistical models are common choices for studying problems of this kind. This paper proposes a spatio-temporal modeling framework to characterize infectious disease dynamics by integrating the SIR compartment and log-Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) models. The method's performance is assessed via simulation using a combination of real and synthetic data for a region in São Paulo, Brazil. We also apply our modeling approach to analyze COVID-19 dynamics in Cali, Colombia. The results show that our modified LGCP model, which takes advantage of information obtained from the previous SIR modeling step, leads to a better forecasting performance than equivalent models that do not do that. Finally, the proposed method also allows the incorporation of age-stratified contact information, which provides valuable decision-making insights. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-022-02354-4.
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Affiliation(s)
- André Victor Ribeiro Amaral
- CEMSE Division, Statistics Program, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Jonatan A. González
- CEMSE Division, Statistics Program, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Paula Moraga
- CEMSE Division, Statistics Program, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
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Mahmood M, Amaral AVR, Mateu J, Moraga P. Modeling infectious disease dynamics: Integrating contact tracing-based stochastic compartment and spatio-temporal risk models. Spat Stat 2022; 51:100691. [PMID: 35967269 PMCID: PMC9361636 DOI: 10.1016/j.spasta.2022.100691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2022] [Revised: 06/15/2022] [Accepted: 07/15/2022] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
Major infectious diseases such as COVID-19 have a significant impact on population lives and put enormous pressure on healthcare systems globally. Strong interventions, such as lockdowns and social distancing measures, imposed to prevent these diseases from spreading, may also negatively impact society, leading to jobs losses, mental health problems, and increased inequalities, making crucial the prioritization of riskier areas when applying these protocols. The modeling of mobility data derived from contact-tracing data can be used to forecast infectious trajectories and help design strategies for prevention and control. In this work, we propose a new spatial-stochastic model that allows us to characterize the temporally varying spatial risk better than existing methods. We demonstrate the use of the proposed model by simulating an epidemic in the city of Valencia, Spain, and comparing it with a contact tracing-based stochastic compartment reference model. The results show that, by accounting for the spatial risk values in the model, the peak of infected individuals, as well as the overall number of infected cases, are reduced. Therefore, adding a spatial risk component into compartment models may give finer control over the epidemic dynamics, which might help the people in charge to make better decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mateen Mahmood
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division. King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - André Victor Ribeiro Amaral
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division. King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Jorge Mateu
- Department of Mathematics, Universitat Jaume I, Spain
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division. King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
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19
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Abstract
BACKGROUND More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. METHODS We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. FINDINGS Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. INTERPRETATION Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2022; 400:563-591. [PMID: 35988567 PMCID: PMC9395583 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01438-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 189] [Impact Index Per Article: 94.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2022] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]). INTERPRETATION The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Moraga P, Baker L. rspatialdata: a collection of data sources and tutorials on downloading and visualising spatial data using R. F1000Res 2022; 11:770. [PMID: 36016994 PMCID: PMC9363973 DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.122764.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatial and spatio-temporal data are used in a wide range of fields including environmental, health and social disciplines. Several packages in the statistical software R have been recently developed as clients for various databases to meet the growing demands for easily accessible and reliable spatial data. While documentation on how to use many of these packages exist, there is an increasing need for a one stop repository for tutorials on this information. In this paper, we present rspatialdata a website that provides a collection of data sources and tutorials on downloading and visualising spatial data using R. The website includes a wide range of datasets including administrative boundaries of countries, Open Street Map data, population, temperature, vegetation, air pollution, and malaria data. The goal of the website is to equip researchers and communities with the tools to engage in spatial data analysis and visualisation so that they can address important local issues, such as estimating air pollution, quantifying disease burdens, and evaluating and monitoring the United Nation’s sustainable development goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Laurie Baker
- College of the Atlantic, 105 Eden St, Bar Harbor, ME, 04609, USA
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22
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Sharma R, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd-Rabu R, Abidi H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Acuna JM, Adhikari S, Advani SM, Afzal MS, Aghaie Meybodi M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alkhayyat M, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvand S, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini S, Ancuceanu R, Anoushiravani A, Anoushirvani AA, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Arabloo J, Aryannejad A, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Athari SS, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Awedew AF, Awoke MA, Ayana TM, Azadnajafabad S, Azami H, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari Jafari A, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Bahadory S, Baig AA, Baker JL, Banach M, Barrow A, Berhie AY, Besharat S, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhattacharyya K, Bhojaraja VS, Bibi S, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bjørge T, Bodicha BBA, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Calina D, Cao C, Cao Y, Carreras G, Carvalho F, Cerin E, Chakinala RC, Cho WCS, Chu DT, Conde J, Costa VM, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Danielewicz A, Demeke FM, Demissie GD, Desai R, Dhamnetiya D, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Didehdar M, Doaei S, Doan LP, Dodangeh M, Eghbalian F, Ejeta DD, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed I, Elhadi M, Enyew DB, Eyayu T, Ezzeddini R, Fakhradiyev IR, Farooque U, Farrokhpour H, Farzadfar F, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fattahi N, Fereidoonnezhad M, Fernandes E, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroutan M, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Gallus S, Garg T, Getachew T, Ghamari SH, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gholamalizadeh M, Gholizadeh Navashenaq J, Gizaw AT, Glasbey JC, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gonfa KB, Gorini G, Guha A, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haddadi R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halwani R, Haque S, Hariri S, Hasaballah AI, Hassanipour S, Hay SI, Herteliu C, Holla R, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Househ M, Huang J, Humayun A, Iavicoli I, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Islami F, Iwagami M, Jahani MA, Jakovljevic M, Javaheri T, Jayawardena R, Jebai R, Jha RP, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kalhor R, Kamath A, Kapoor N, Karaye IM, Karimi A, Kauppila JH, Kazemi A, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalilov R, Khanali J, Khayamzadeh M, Khodadost M, Kim H, Kim MS, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kolahi AA, Koohestani HR, Kopec JA, Koteeswaran R, Koyanagi A, Krishnamoorthy Y, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar V, La Vecchia C, Lami FH, Landires I, Ledda C, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YY, Leong E, Li B, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Loureiro JA, Lunevicius R, Madadizadeh F, Mahmoodpoor A, Majeed A, Malekpour MR, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mantovani LG, Martorell M, Masoudi S, Mathur P, Meena JK, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mendoza W, Mentis AFA, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Mijena GFW, Mirmoeeni S, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei H, Misra S, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi S, Mohammadi SM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mohammed TA, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Mokhtari Z, Molokhia M, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morgado-da-Costa J, Mubarik S, Mulita F, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Nam HS, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Nazemalhosseini-Mojarad E, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen SH, Noor NM, Noori M, Noori SMA, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nzoputam CI, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Oguntade AS, Okati-Aliabad H, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Ong S, Ostroff SM, Padron-Monedero A, Pakzad R, Pana A, Pandey A, Pashazadeh Kan F, Patel UK, Paudel U, Pereira RB, Perumalsamy N, Pestell RG, Piracha ZZ, Pollok RCG, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prashant A, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei S, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Rahmanian V, Rajai N, Rajesh A, Ramezani-Doroh V, Ramezanzadeh K, Ranabhat K, Rashedi S, Rashidi A, Rashidi M, Rashidi MM, Rastegar M, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghinia MS, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei S, Rezaeian M, Rezazadeh-Khadem S, Roshandel G, Saber-Ayad MM, Saberzadeh-Ardestani B, Saddik B, Sadeghi H, Saeed U, Sahebazzamani M, Sahebkar A, Salek Farrokhi A, Salimi A, Salimzadeh H, Samadi P, Samaei M, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saqib MAN, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Schneider IJC, Šekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Sha F, Shafiee SM, Shaghaghi Z, Shahabi S, Shaker E, Sharifian M, Sharifi-Rad J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shetty JK, Shirkoohi R, Shobeiri P, Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Silva DAS, Silva Julian G, Singh AD, Singh JA, Siraj MS, Sivandzadeh GR, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Socea B, Solmi M, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Song S, Szerencsés V, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabibian E, Taheri M, TaheriAbkenar Y, Taherkhani A, Talaat IM, Tan KK, Tbakhi A, Tesfaye B, Tiyuri A, Tollosa DN, Touvier M, Tran BX, Tusa BS, Ullah I, Ullah S, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Veroux M, Vo B, Vos T, Wang C, Westerman R, Woldemariam M, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yang L, Yazdanpanah F, Yu C, Yuce D, Yunusa I, Zadnik V, Zahir M, Zare I, Zhang ZJ, Zoladl M. Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2022; 7:627-647. [PMID: 35397795 PMCID: PMC9192760 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(22)00044-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 154] [Impact Index Per Article: 77.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2021] [Revised: 01/30/2022] [Accepted: 02/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. METHODS Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. FINDINGS Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019. INTERPRETATION The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Burkart K, Causey K, Cohen AJ, Wozniak SS, Salvi DD, Abbafati C, Adekanmbi V, Adsuar JC, Ahmadi K, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alipour V, Alvis-Guzman N, Amegah AK, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Ansari F, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Aripov T, Babaee E, Banach M, Barnett A, Bärnighausen TW, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bernstein RS, Bhattacharyya K, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bohlouli S, Breitner S, Brenner H, Butt ZA, Cámera LA, Cantu-Brito C, Carvalho F, Cerin E, Chattu VK, Chauhan BG, Choi JYJ, Chu DT, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Davletov K, de Courten B, Demeke FM, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Duncan BB, El Sayed Zaki M, Eskandarieh S, Fareed M, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fazlzadeh M, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Freitas M, Ghashghaee A, Gill PS, Ginawi IA, Gopalani SV, Guo Y, Gupta RD, Habtewold TD, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hankey GJ, Hasanpoor E, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Heibati B, Hole MK, Hossain N, Househ M, Irvani SSN, Jaafari J, Jakovljevic M, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Kasaeian A, Kaydi N, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khan EA, Khan J, Khan MN, Khatab K, Khater AM, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kivimäki M, Knibbs LD, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kuate Defo B, Kugbey N, Lauriola P, Lee PH, Leili M, Lewycka S, Li S, Lim LL, Linn S, Liu Y, Lorkowski S, Mahasha PW, Mahotra NB, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Martini S, Meharie BG, Menezes RG, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohajer B, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moraga P, Morrison SD, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naik G, Nangia V, Ndwandwe DE, Negoi RI, Ningrum DNA, Noubiap JJ, Ogbo FA, Olagunju AT, Onwujekwe OE, Ortiz A, Owolabi MO, P A M, Panda-Jonas S, Park EK, Pashazadeh Kan F, Pirsaheb M, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Ranabhat CL, Raoofi S, Rawal L, Renzaho AMN, Rezapour A, Ribeiro D, Roever L, Ronfani L, Sabour S, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salimzadeh H, Salvi SS, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sathish T, Schmidt MI, Schutte AE, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shuval K, Soyiri IN, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Thankappan KR, Topor-Madry R, Tudor Car L, Ullah I, Vacante M, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Violante FS, Waheed Y, Wolfe CDA, Yamada T, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zaman SB, Zhang Y, Zodpey S, Lim SS, Stanaway JD, Brauer M. Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM 2·5 air pollution, 1990-2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e586-e600. [PMID: 35809588 PMCID: PMC9278144 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00122-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2019] [Revised: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 05/12/2022] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution. METHODS We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure-response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals. FINDINGS In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68-4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117-223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49-17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73-17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22-9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81-8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5. INTERPRETATION Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Ingole V, Dimitrova A, Sampedro J, Sacoor C, Acacio S, Juvekar S, Roy S, Moraga P, Basagaña X, Ballester J, Antó JM, Tonne C. Local mortality impacts due to future air pollution under climate change scenarios. Sci Total Environ 2022; 823:153832. [PMID: 35151734 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153832] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Revised: 01/27/2022] [Accepted: 02/08/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The health impacts of global climate change mitigation will affect local populations differently. However, most co-benefits analyses have been done at a global level, with relatively few studies providing local level results. We aimed to quantify the local health impacts due to fine particles (PM2.5) under the governance arrangements embedded in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs1-5) under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5) in local populations of Mozambique, India, and Spain. We simulated the SSP-RCP scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was linked to the TM5-FASST model to estimate PM2.5 levels. PM2.5 levels were calibrated with local measurements. We used comparative risk assessment methods to estimate attributable premature deaths due to PM2.5 linking local population and mortality data with PM2.5-mortality relationships from the literature, and incorporating population projections under the SSPs. PM2.5 attributable burdens in 2050 differed across SSP-RCP scenarios, and sensitivity of results across scenarios varied across populations. Future attributable mortality burden of PM2.5 was highly sensitive to assumptions about how populations will change according to SSP. SSPs reflecting high challenges for adaptation (SSPs 3 and 4) consistently resulted in the highest PM2.5 attributable burdens mid-century. Our analysis of local PM2.5 attributable premature deaths under SSP-RCP scenarios in three local populations highlights the importance of both socioeconomic development and climate policy in reducing the health burden from air pollution. Sensitivity of future PM2.5 mortality burden to SSPs was particularly evident in low- and middle- income country settings due either to high air pollution levels or dynamic populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vijendra Ingole
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, Parc de Salut Mar, Spain; King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering Division, Saudi Arabia
| | - Asya Dimitrova
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, Parc de Salut Mar, Spain
| | - Jon Sampedro
- Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Sede Building 1, 1st Floor Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Spain
| | | | | | - Sanjay Juvekar
- Vadu Rural Health Program, KEM Hospital Research Centre, Pune, India
| | - Sudipto Roy
- Vadu Rural Health Program, KEM Hospital Research Centre, Pune, India
| | - Paula Moraga
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering Division, Saudi Arabia
| | - Xavier Basagaña
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, Parc de Salut Mar, Spain
| | - Joan Ballester
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, Parc de Salut Mar, Spain
| | - Josep M Antó
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, Parc de Salut Mar, Spain
| | - Cathryn Tonne
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, Parc de Salut Mar, Spain.
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Sheena BS, Hiebert L, Han H, Ippolito H, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abbastabar H, Abdoli A, Abubaker Ali H, Adane MM, Adegboye OA, Adnani QES, Advani SM, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Aghaie Meybodi M, Ahadinezhad B, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Akalu GT, Aklilu A, Akram T, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alem AZ, Alem DT, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alhassan RK, Ali L, Ali MA, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Alkhayyat M, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Altawalah H, Amini S, Amu H, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anoushiravani A, Ansar A, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Argaw AM, Argaw ZG, Arshad M, Artamonov AA, Ashraf T, Atlaw D, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari Jafari A, Azarian G, Bagheri S, Bahadory S, Baig AA, Banach M, Barati N, Barrow A, Batiha AMM, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Belgaumi UI, Berhie AY, Bhagat DS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhojaraja VS, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bodicha BBA, Bojia HA, Boloor A, Bosetti C, Braithwaite D, Briko NI, Butt ZA, Cámera LA, Chakinala RC, Chakraborty PA, Charan J, Chen S, Choi JYJ, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury FR, Chu DT, Chung SC, Cortesi PA, Cowie BC, Culbreth GT, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, De la Hoz FP, Debela SA, Dedefo MG, Demeke FM, Demie TGG, Demissie GD, Derbew Molla M, Desta AA, Dhamnetiya D, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Didehdar M, Doan LP, Dorostkar F, Drake TM, Eghbalian F, Ekholuenetale M, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, Elhadi M, Elmonem MA, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Enyew DB, Erkhembayar R, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilzadeh F, Ezzikouri S, Farrokhpour H, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Foroutan M, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gaidhane S, Galles NC, Gallus S, Gebremeskel TG, Gebreyohannes EAA, Ghadiri K, Ghaffari K, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari SH, Ghashghaee A, Gholami A, Gholizadeh A, Gilani A, Goel A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gorini G, Goshu YA, Griswold MG, Gubari MIM, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haddadi R, Halwani R, Hamid SS, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Haque S, Harapan H, Hargono A, Hariri S, Hasaballah AI, Hasan SMM, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Herteliu C, Heyi DZ, Hezam K, Holla R, Hosseini MS, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Househ M, Huang J, Hussein NR, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irham LM, Islam JY, Ismail NE, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Javadi Mamaghani A, Jayaram S, Jayawardena R, Jebai R, Jha RP, Joseph N, Joukar F, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalhor R, Kandel H, Kanko TKT, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Kassa BG, Kemp Bohan PM, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khan G, Khan IA, Khan J, Khan MAB, Khanali J, Khater AM, Khatib MN, Khodadost M, Khoja AT, Khosravizadeh O, Khubchandani J, Kim GR, Kim H, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kocarnik JM, Kolahi AA, Koteeswaran R, Kumar GA, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lazarus JV, Ledda C, Lee DW, Lee SW, Lee YY, Levi M, Li J, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lopukhov PD, Loureiro JA, MacLachlan JH, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majeed A, Makki A, Malekpour MR, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Matthews PC, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AG, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Minh LHN, Mirica A, Mirmoeeni S, Mirrakhimov EM, Misra S, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohamadkhani A, Mohammadi M, Mohammed S, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Moludi J, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradzadeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Mostafavi E, Mubarik S, Muniyandi M, Murray CJL, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Narasimha Swamy S, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Negoi I, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen HLT, Ngwa CH, Niazi RK, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nowroozi A, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Ochir C, Odukoya OO, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Omar Bali A, Omer E, Otstavnov SS, Oumer B, Padubidri JR, Pana A, Pandey A, Park EC, Pashazadeh Kan F, Patel UK, Paudel U, Petcu IR, Piracha ZZ, Pollok RCG, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Rafiei A, Rafiei S, Raghuram PM, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Rahmawaty S, Rajesh A, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rashidi M, Rashidi MM, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Rezazadeh-Khadem S, Rodriguez JAB, Rwegerera GM, Sabour S, Saddik B, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Salahi S, Salimzadeh H, Sampath C, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Seidu AA, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Shahabi S, Shaikh MA, Shaker E, Shakhmardanov MZ, Shannawaz M, Shenoy SM, Shetty JK, Shetty PH, Shibuya K, Shin JI, Shobeiri P, Sibhat MM, Singh AD, Singh JA, Singh S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sohrabpour AA, Song S, Tabaeian SP, Tadesse EG, Taheri M, Tampa M, Tan KK, Tavakoli A, Tbakhi A, Tefera BN, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tesfaw HM, Thapar R, Thavamani A, Tohidast SA, Tollosa DN, Tosti ME, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran MTN, Trihandini I, Tusa BS, Ullah I, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Varthya SB, Vo B, Waheed Y, Weldesenbet AB, Woldemariam M, Xu S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yaseri M, Yeshaw Y, Yiğit V, Yirdaw BW, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zahir M, Zaki L, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Vos T, Ward JW, Dirac MA. Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2022; 7:796-829. [PMID: 35738290 PMCID: PMC9349325 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(22)00124-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 174] [Impact Index Per Article: 87.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Revised: 04/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Background Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kocarnik JM, Compton K, Dean FE, Fu W, Gaw BL, Harvey JD, Henrikson HJ, Lu D, Pennini A, Xu R, Ababneh E, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Elsalam SM, Abdoli A, Abedi A, Abidi H, Abolhassani H, Adedeji IA, Adnani QES, Advani SM, Afzal MS, Aghaali M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed Rashid T, Ahmed Salih Y, Akalu GT, Aklilu A, Akram T, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Ali S, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alkhayyat M, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Al-Maweri SAA, Almustanyir S, Alonso N, Alvis-Guzman N, Amu H, Anbesu EW, Ancuceanu R, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antwi MH, Anvari D, Anyasodor AE, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aremu O, Ariffin H, Aripov T, Arshad M, Artaman A, Arulappan J, Asemi Z, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Ashraf T, Atorkey P, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Awedew AF, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayenew T, Azab MA, Azadnajafabad S, Azari Jafari A, Azarian G, Azzam AY, Badiye AD, Bahadory S, Baig AA, Baker JL, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barra F, Barrow A, Behzadifar M, Belgaumi UI, Bezabhe WMM, Bezabih YM, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharyya K, Bhojaraja VS, Bibi S, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bisignano C, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Blyuss O, Bolarinwa OA, Bolla SR, Braithwaite D, Brar A, Brenner H, Bustamante-Teixeira MT, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cao Y, Carreras G, Catalá-López F, Cembranel F, Cerin E, Cernigliaro A, Chakinala RC, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chimed-Ochir O, Cho DY, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Chung MT, Conde J, Cortés S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Cunha AR, Dadras O, Dagnew AB, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darwesh AM, das Neves J, De la Hoz FP, Demis AB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dhamnetiya D, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doaei S, Dorostkar F, dos Santos Figueiredo FW, Driscoll TR, Ebrahimi H, Eftekharzadeh S, El Tantawi M, El-Abid H, Elbarazi I, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, El-Jaafary SI, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilzadeh F, Etemadi A, Ezzikouri S, Faisaluddin M, Faraon EJA, Fares J, Farzadfar F, Feroze AH, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Gadanya MA, Gallus S, Gaspar Fonseca M, Getachew Obsa A, Ghafourifard M, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gholamalizadeh M, Gilani SA, Ginindza TG, Gizaw ATT, Glasbey JC, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gomez RS, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Grosso G, Gubari MIM, Guerra MR, Guha A, Gunasekera DS, Gupta B, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haider MR, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Haque S, Harlianto NI, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hassanipour S, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari M, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Hezam K, Holla R, Hossain MM, Hossain MBH, Hosseini MS, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsairi M, Huang J, Hugo FN, Hussain R, Hussein NR, Hwang BF, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ida F, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irham LM, Islam JY, Islam RM, Islam SMS, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, Jacob L, Jain V, Jakovljevic MB, Javaheri T, Jayaram S, Jazayeri SB, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kahrizi D, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kaliyadan F, Kalkonde Y, Kamath A, Kameran Al-Salihi N, Kandel H, Kapoor N, Karch A, Kasa AS, Katikireddi SV, Kauppila JH, Kavetskyy T, Kebede SA, Keshavarz P, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khalilov R, Khan G, Khan M, Khan MN, Khan MAB, Khang YH, Khater AM, Khayamzadeh M, Kim GR, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kopec JA, Koteeswaran R, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Kucuk Bicer B, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kutluk T, La Vecchia C, Lami FH, Landires I, Lauriola P, Lee SW, Lee SWH, Lee WC, Lee YH, Leigh J, Leong E, Li J, Li MC, Liu X, Loureiro JA, Lunevicius R, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majeed A, Makki A, Male S, Malik AA, Mansournia MA, Martini S, Masoumi SZ, Mathur P, McKee M, Mehrotra R, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei HR, Misra S, Mithra P, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohammad KA, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi M, Mohammadi SM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moosavi MA, Moradi Y, Moraga P, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Mubarik S, Mwanri L, Nagarajan AJ, Nagaraju SP, Nagata C, Naimzada MD, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negoi I, Negru SM, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Niazi RK, Nnaji CA, Noor NM, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nzoputam CI, Oancea B, Ochir C, Odukoya OO, Ogbo FA, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Omar E, Omar Bali A, Omonisi AEE, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Orru H, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Pana A, Panagiotakos D, Panda-Jonas S, Pardhan S, Park EC, Park EK, Pashazadeh Kan F, Patel HK, Patel JR, Pati S, Pattanshetty SM, Paudel U, Pereira DM, Pereira RB, Perianayagam A, Pillay JD, Pirouzpanah S, Pishgar F, Podder I, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Prashant A, Preotescu L, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Rafiee A, Rahim F, Rahimzadeh S, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rajai N, Rajesh A, Rakovac I, Ram P, Ramezanzadeh K, Ranabhat K, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghinia MS, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Roberts TJ, Rodriguez JAB, Rohloff P, Romoli M, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rwegerera GM, S M, Sabour S, Saddik B, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Sahoo H, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salimzadeh H, Samaei M, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sankararaman S, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sardiwalla Y, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Saylan M, Schneider IJC, Sekerija M, Seylani A, Shafaat O, Shaghaghi Z, Shaikh MA, Shamsoddin E, Shannawaz M, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Shetty A, Shetty JK, Shetty PH, Shibuya K, Shirkoohi R, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Siabani S, Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Silva DAS, Singh JA, Sintayehu Y, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soeberg MJ, Sofi-Mahmudi A, Sotoudeh H, Steiropoulos P, Straif K, Subedi R, Sufiyan MB, Sultan I, Sultana S, Sur D, Szerencsés V, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadbiri H, Taherkhani A, Takahashi K, Talaat IM, Tan KK, Tat VY, Tedla BAA, Tefera YG, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thapar R, Thavamani A, Thoguluva Chandrasekar V, Thomas N, Tohidinik HR, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tran MTN, Tripathy JP, Tusa BS, Ullah I, Ullah S, Umapathi KK, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Vacante M, Vaezi M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Velazquez DZ, Veroux M, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vo B, Volovici V, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Ward P, Wen YF, Westerman R, Winkler AS, Yadav L, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yang L, Yaya S, Yazie TSY, Yeshaw Y, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yuce D, Yunusa I, Zadnik V, Zare F, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang J, Zhong C, Zhou L, Zhu C, Ziapour A, Zimmermann IR, Fitzmaurice C, Murray CJL, Force LM. Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. JAMA Oncol 2022; 8:420-444. [PMID: 34967848 PMCID: PMC8719276 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2021.6987] [Citation(s) in RCA: 585] [Impact Index Per Article: 292.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Kelly Compton
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Frances E. Dean
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Weijia Fu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Brian L. Gaw
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - James D. Harvey
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson
- Department of Global Health, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Dan Lu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Alyssa Pennini
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Rixing Xu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Emad Ababneh
- Pathology and Laboratory Medicine Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hedayat Abbastabar
- Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Amir Abdoli
- Zoonoses Research Center, Jahrom University of Medical Sciences, Jahrom, Iran
| | - Aidin Abedi
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
| | - Hassan Abidi
- Laboratory Technology Sciences Department, Yasouj University, Yasuj, Iran
| | - Hassan Abolhassani
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital, Huddinge, Sweden
- Research Center for Immunodeficiencies, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani
- Department of Midwifery, Karya Husada Institute of Health Sciences, Kediri, Indonesia
- Department of Midwifery, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Shailesh M. Advani
- Terasaki Institute for Biomedical Innovation, Los Angeles, California
- School of Medicine, Georgetown University, Washington, DC
| | - Muhammad Sohail Afzal
- Department of Life Sciences, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Mohammad Aghaali
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
| | - Bright Opoku Ahinkorah
- The Australian Centre for Public and Population Health Research, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Sajjad Ahmad
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Tauseef Ahmad
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Ali Ahmadi
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran
- Department of Epidemiology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Sepideh Ahmadi
- School of Advanced Technologies in Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Tarik Ahmed Rashid
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Kurdistan Hewler, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Yusra Ahmed Salih
- Database Technology Department, Sulaimani Polytechnic University, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
- College of Informatics, Sulaimani Polytechnic University, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Gizachew Taddesse Akalu
- Microbiology, Immunology and Parasitology Department, St Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Microbial, Cellular and Molecular Biology, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Addis Aklilu
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia
| | - Tayyaba Akram
- School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Science Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia
| | - Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna
- Department of Public Health, Intercountry Centre for Oral Health for Africa, Jos, Nigeria
- Department of Public Health, Federal Ministry of Health, Garki, Nigeria
| | - Hanadi Al Hamad
- Geriatric and Long-Term Care Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Rumailah Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Fares Alahdab
- Mayo Evidence-Based Practice Center, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, Minnesota
| | - Ziyad Al-Aly
- John T. Milliken Department of Internal Medicine, Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, Missouri
- Clinical Epidemiology Center, Department of Veterans Affairs, St Louis, Missouri
| | - Saqib Ali
- Department of Information Systems, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman
| | - Yousef Alimohamadi
- Pars Hospital, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Vahid Alipour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Health Economics, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Syed Mohamed Aljunid
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Kuwait University, Safat, Kuwait
- International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, National University of Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Malaysia
| | | | | | | | - Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri
- College of Dental Medicine, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Faculty of Dentistry, Sana'a University, Sana’a, Yemen
| | - Sami Almustanyir
- College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nivaldo Alonso
- Department of Surgery, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Nelson Alvis-Guzman
- Research Group in Hospital Management and Health Policies, Universidad de la Costa, Barranquilla, Colombia
- Research Group in Health Economics, University of Cartagena, Cartagena, Colombia
| | - Hubert Amu
- Department of Population and Behavioural Sciences, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana
| | | | - Robert Ancuceanu
- Pharmacy Department, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Fereshteh Ansari
- Research Center for Evidence Based Medicine, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Razi Vaccine and Serum Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organization, Tehran, Iran
| | - Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Zahedan, Iran
| | - Maxwell Hubert Antwi
- Clinical Laboratory Department, Ghana Health Service, Kumasi, Ghana
- Department of Molecular Medicine, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Davood Anvari
- Department of Parasitology, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- Department of Parasitology, Iranshahr University of Medical Sciences, Iranshahr, Iran
| | | | - Muhammad Aqeel
- Department of Psychology, Foundation University Islamabad, Rawalpandi, Pakistan
| | - Jalal Arabloo
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Morteza Arab-Zozani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran
| | - Olatunde Aremu
- Department of Public Health, Birmingham City University, Birmingham, England
| | - Hany Ariffin
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- University of Malaya Medical Centre, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Timur Aripov
- Public Health and Healthcare Management, Tashkent Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
- Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Muhammad Arshad
- Allied Health Sciences, Khyber Medical University, Timergara, Lower Dir, Pakistan
| | - Al Artaman
- Zayed University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Judie Arulappan
- Department of Maternal and Child Health, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman
| | - Zatollah Asemi
- Research Center for Biochemistry and Nutrition in Metabolic Diseases, Kashan University of Medical Sciences, Kashan, Iran
| | - Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
| | - Tahira Ashraf
- Institute of Radiological Sciences and Medical Imaging Technology, University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Prince Atorkey
- School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia
- Hunter New England Population Health, Wallsend, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Avinash Aujayeb
- Northumbria HealthCare National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust, NHS England, Newcastle upon Tyne, England
| | - Marcel Ausloos
- School of Business, University of Leicester, Leicester, England
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
| | | | | | - Temesgen Ayenew
- Department of Nursing, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
| | | | | | | | - Ghasem Azarian
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
| | - Ahmed Y. Azzam
- Faculty of Medicine, October 6 University, 6th of October City, Egypt
| | - Ashish D. Badiye
- Department of Forensic Science, Government Institute of Forensic Science, Nagpur, India
| | - Saeed Bahadory
- Department of Parasitology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Parasitology, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Atif Amin Baig
- Unit of Biochemistry, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jennifer L. Baker
- Center for Clinical Research and Prevention, Bispebjerg University Hospital, Frederiksberg, Denmark
| | | | - Maciej Banach
- Department of Hypertension, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
- Polish Mothers' Memorial Hospital Research Institute, Lodz, Poland
| | - Till Winfried Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | - Fabio Barra
- Academic Unit of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
| | - Amadou Barrow
- Department of Public and Environmental Health, University of the Gambia, Brikama, The Gambia
- Epidemiology and Disease Control Unit, Ministry of Health, Kotu, The Gambia
| | - Masoud Behzadifar
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
| | - Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi
- Department of Oral Pathology and Microbiology, Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences, Karad, India
| | | | - Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih
- Department of Internal Medicine, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
- One Health, University of Nantes, Nantes, France
| | - Devidas S. Bhagat
- Department of Forensic Chemistry, Government Institute of Forensic Science, Aurangabad, India
| | - Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula
- Department of Social and Clinical Pharmacy, Charles University, Hradec Kralova, Czech Republic
- Institute of Public Health, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | - Nikha Bhardwaj
- Department of Anatomy, Government Medical College Pali, Pali, India
| | - Pankaj Bhardwaj
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
- School of Public Health, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Sonu Bhaskar
- Neurovascular Imaging Laboratory, New South Wales Brain Clot Bank, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Department of Neurology and Neurophysiology, South West Sydney Local Heath District and Liverpool Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Krittika Bhattacharyya
- Department of Statistical and Computational Genomics, National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani, India
- Department of Statistics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India
| | | | - Sadia Bibi
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Ali Bijani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Antonio Biondi
- Department of General Surgery and Medical-Surgical Specialties, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Catherine Bisignano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Tone Bjørge
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | - Archie Bleyer
- Department of Radiation Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland
- McGovern Medical School, University of Texas, Houston
| | - Oleg Blyuss
- School of Physics, Engineering and Computer Science, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, England
- Institute for Women's Health, University College London, London, England
| | | | - Srinivasa Rao Bolla
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Nazarbayev University, Nur-Sultan City, Kazakhstan
| | - Dejana Braithwaite
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, Gainesville
- Cancer Population Sciences Program, University of Florida Health Cancer Center, Gainesville
| | - Amanpreet Brar
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Hermann Brenner
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany
| | | | - Nadeem Shafique Butt
- Department of Family and Community Medicine, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Zahid A. Butt
- School of Public Health and Health Systems, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
- Al Shifa School of Public Health, Al Shifa Trust Eye Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | | | - Yin Cao
- Department of Surgery, Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, Missouri
| | - Giulia Carreras
- Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network, Florence, Italy
| | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- National School of Public Health, Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
- Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Francieli Cembranel
- Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil
| | - Ester Cerin
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Achille Cernigliaro
- Regional Epidemiological Observatory Department, Sicilian Regional Health Authority, Palermo, Italy
| | | | | | - Vijay Kumar Chattu
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Saveetha Medical College, Saveetha University, Chennai, India
| | - Pankaj Chaturvedi
- Center for Cancer Epidemiology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Navi Mumbai, India
- Department of Head Neck Surgery, Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India
| | - Odgerel Chimed-Ochir
- Department of Public Health and Health Policy, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan
| | | | | | - Dinh-Toi Chu
- Center for Biomedicine and Community Health, VNU International School, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Michael T. Chung
- Department of Otolaryngology, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan
| | - Joao Conde
- Nova Medical School, Nova University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Sanda Cortés
- Department of Public Health, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Research Line in Environmental Exposures and Health Effects at Population Level, Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable, Santiago, Chile
| | | | - Vera Marisa Costa
- Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Amanda Ramos Cunha
- Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Omid Dadras
- School of Public Health, Walailak University, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand
- Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | - Saad M. A. Dahlawi
- Environmental Health Department, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | - Xiaochen Dai
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
- Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Rakhi Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
| | - Aso Mohammad Darwesh
- Department of Information Technology, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - José das Neves
- Institute for Research and Innovation in Health, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Institute of Biomedical Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis
- Department of Nursing, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
- School of Nursing, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
| | - Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez
- Center for Nutrition and Health Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Deepak Dhamnetiya
- Department of Community Medicine, Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Medical College and Hospital, Delhi, India
| | - Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal
- Policy Research Institute, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Global Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Meghnath Dhimal
- Health Research Section, Nepal Health Research Council, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Mostafa Dianatinasab
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran
- Department of Epidemiology, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Daniel Diaz
- Center of Complexity Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Autonomous University of Sinaloa, Culiacán Rosales, Mexico
| | - Shirin Djalalinia
- Development of Research and Technology Center, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Huyen Phuc Do
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Saeid Doaei
- School of Health, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
- Department of Community Nutrition, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Fariba Dorostkar
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Tim Robert Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Hedyeh Ebrahimi
- Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Liver and Pancreaticobilliary Disease Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Sahar Eftekharzadeh
- Division of Urology, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
| | - Maha El Tantawi
- Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health Department, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Hassan El-Abid
- Direction de L'épidémiologie et la Lutte Contre les Maladies, Ministry of Health, Rabat, Morocco
| | - Iffat Elbarazi
- Institute of Public Health, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | | | | | | | - Babak Eshrati
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Sharareh Eskandarieh
- Multiple Sclerosis Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Firooz Esmaeilzadeh
- Department of Public Health, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
| | - Arash Etemadi
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Sayeh Ezzikouri
- Department of Virology, Pasteur Institute of Morocco, Casablanca, Morocco
| | - Mohammed Faisaluddin
- Department of Internal Medicine, Rochester General Hospital, Rochester, New York
| | - Emerito Jose A. Faraon
- Department of Health Policy and Administration, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
| | - Jawad Fares
- Department of Neurological Surgery, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abdullah Hamid Feroze
- Department of Neurological Surgery, University of Washington, Seattle
- Human Biology Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Simone Ferrero
- Department of Neurosciences, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
| | | | - Irina Filip
- Psychiatry Department, Kaiser Permanente, Fontana, California
- School of Health Sciences, A.T. Still University, Mesa, Arizona
| | - Florian Fischer
- Institute of Gerontological Health Services and Nursing Research, Ravensburg-Weingarten University of Applied Sciences, Weingarten, Germany
| | | | - Masoud Foroutan
- Department of Medical Parasitology, Abadan University of Medical Sciences, Abadan, Iran
- Faculty of Medicine, Abadan University of Medical Sciences, Abadan, Iran
| | | | - Peter Andras Gaal
- Health Services Management Training Centre, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
- Department of Applied Social Sciences, Sapientia Hungarian University of Transylvania, Târgu-Mureş, Romania
| | - Mohamed M. Gad
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio
- Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill
| | - Muktar A. Gadanya
- Community Medicine Department, Bayero University, Kano, Kano, Nigeria
- Department of Community Medicine, Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano, Nigeria
| | - Silvano Gallus
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Milan, Italy
| | | | | | - Mansour Ghafourifard
- Department of Medical Surgical Nursing, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Ahmad Ghashghaee
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Student Research Committee, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Nermin Ghith
- Research Group for Genomic Epidemiology, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Maryam Gholamalizadeh
- Cancer Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Syed Amir Gilani
- Faculty of Allied Health Sciences, University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
- Afro-Asian Institute, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Themba G. Ginindza
- Discipline of Public Health Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | | | - James C. Glasbey
- National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit on Global Surgery, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, England
| | - Mahaveer Golechha
- Health Systems and Policy Research, Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, India
| | - Pouya Goleij
- Department of Genetics, Sana Institute of Higher Education, Sari, Iran
| | - Ricardo Santiago Gomez
- Department of Oral Surgery and Pathology, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Sameer Vali Gopalani
- Hudson College of Public Health, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City
- Department of Health and Social Affairs, Government of the Federated States of Micronesia, Palikir, Federated States of Micronesia
| | - Giuseppe Gorini
- Oncological Network, Prevention and Research Institute, Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network, Florence, Italy
| | - Houman Goudarzi
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
- Center for Environmental and Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Giuseppe Grosso
- Department of Biomedical and Biotechnological Sciences, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | | | | | - Avirup Guha
- Harrington Heart and Vascular Institute, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Ohio State University, Columbus
| | | | - Bhawna Gupta
- Department of Public Health, Torrens University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Veer Bala Gupta
- School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Vivek Kumar Gupta
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Reyna Alma Gutiérrez
- Department of Epidemiology and Psychosocial Research, Ramón de la Fuente Muñiz National Institute of Psychiatry, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Nima Hafezi-Nejad
- Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
- School of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Arvin Haj-Mirzaian
- Department of Pharmacology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Obesity Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rabih Halwani
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
- College of Medicine, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Randah R. Hamadeh
- Department of Family and Community Medicine, Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain
| | - Sajid Hameed
- University Institute of Public Health, University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Samer Hamidi
- School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - Asif Hanif
- University Institute of Public Health, University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Shafiul Haque
- Research & Scientific Studies Unit, Jazan University, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | - Netanja I. Harlianto
- Faculty of Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Department of Radiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Josep Maria Haro
- Research Unit, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Soheil Hassanipour
- Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
- Caspian Digestive Disease Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Roderick J. Hay
- International Foundation for Dermatology, London, England
- St John's Institute of Dermatology, King's College London, London, England
| | - Simon I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Khezar Hayat
- Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
- Department of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, Xian Jiaotong University, Xian, China
| | | | - Mohammad Heidari
- Community-Oriented Nursing Midwifery Research Center, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran
| | | | - Claudiu Herteliu
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
- School of Business, London South Bank University, London, England
| | - Kamal Hezam
- Department of Applied Microbiology, Taiz University, Taiz, Yemen
- Department of Microbiology, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
| | - Ramesh Holla
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Md Mahbub Hossain
- Social and Environmental Health Research, Nature Study Society of Bangladesh, Khulna, Bangladesh
- Department of Health Promotion and Community Health Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station
| | | | | | - Mostafa Hosseini
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
- Department of Computer Science, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Mihaela Hostiuc
- Internal Medicine Department, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Sorin Hostiuc
- Department of Legal Medicine and Bioethics, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
- Clinical Legal Medicine Department, National Institute of Legal Medicine Mina Minovici, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Mowafa Househ
- College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Mohamed Hsairi
- Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Junjie Huang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Fernando N. Hugo
- Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Rabia Hussain
- School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Science Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia
| | - Nawfal R. Hussein
- Department of Biomolecular Sciences, University of Zakho, Zakho, Iraq
| | - Bing-Fang Hwang
- Department of Occupational Safety and Health, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Ivo Iavicoli
- Department of Public Health, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy
| | | | - Fidelia Ida
- Pharmacoepidemiology Department, Sanofi, Cambridge, Massachusetts
| | - Kevin S. Ikuta
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Department of Community Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Irena M. Ilic
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Milena D. Ilic
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
| | - Lalu Muhammad Irham
- School of Pharmacy, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Faculty of Pharmacy, Ahmad Dahlan University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Jessica Y. Islam
- H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, Florida
| | - Rakibul M. Islam
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam
- Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia
- Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Gaetano Isola
- Department of General Surgery and Surgical-Medical Specialties, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Masao Iwagami
- Department of Health Services Research, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
- Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, England
| | - Louis Jacob
- Research and Development Unit, Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, France
| | - Vardhmaan Jain
- Department of Internal Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Mihajlo B. Jakovljevic
- Institute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei University, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Global Health, Economics and Policy, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
| | | | - Shubha Jayaram
- Department of Biochemistry, Government Medical College, Mysuru, India
| | | | - Ravi Prakash Jha
- Department of Community Medicine, Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Medical College and Hospital, Delhi, India
- Department of Community Medicine, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
| | - Jost B. Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Tamas Joo
- Health Services Management Training Centre, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Nitin Joseph
- Department of Community Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Farahnaz Joukar
- Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
- Caspian Digestive Disease Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
| | - Mikk Jürisson
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ali Kabir
- Minimally Invasive Surgery Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Danial Kahrizi
- Department of Genetics, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Leila R. Kalankesh
- School of Management and Medical Informatics, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Rohollah Kalhor
- Institute for Prevention of Non-communicable Diseases, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
- Health Services Management Department, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
| | - Feroze Kaliyadan
- Dermatology Department, King Faisal University, Hofuf, Saudi Arabia
| | - Yogeshwar Kalkonde
- Public Health Division, Society for Education, Action and Research in Community Health, Gadchiroli, India
| | - Ashwin Kamath
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
- Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | | | - Himal Kandel
- Save Sight Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Sydney Eye Hospital, South Eastern Sydney Local Health District, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Neeti Kapoor
- Department of Forensic Science, Government Institute of Forensic Science, Nagpur, India
| | - André Karch
- Institute for Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Münster, Germany
| | - Ayele Semachew Kasa
- Department of Adult Health Nursing, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- Medical Research Council/Chief Scientist Office Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland
| | - Joonas H. Kauppila
- Surgery Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Taras Kavetskyy
- Department of Surface Engineering, John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, Lublin, Poland
- Drohobych Ivan Franko State Pedagogical University, Drohobych, Ukraine
| | - Sewnet Adem Kebede
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Faroe Islands
| | - Pedram Keshavarz
- School of Science and Technology, University of Georgia, Tbilisi, Georgia
- Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, New Hospitals LTD, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | - Mohammad Keykhaei
- Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Students Scientific Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yousef Saleh Khader
- Department of Public Health, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | - Rovshan Khalilov
- Department of Biophysics and Biochemistry, Baku State University, Baku, Azerbaijan
- Russian Institute for Advanced Study, Moscow State Pedagogical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Gulfaraz Khan
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | - Maseer Khan
- Epidemiology Department, Jazan University, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | - Md Nuruzzaman Khan
- Department of Population Science, Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh
| | - Moien A. B. Khan
- Family Medicine Department, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
- Primary Care Department, NHS North West London, London, England
| | - Young-Ho Khang
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Amir M. Khater
- National Hepatology and Tropical Medicine Research Institute, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Maryam Khayamzadeh
- Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- The Iranian Academy of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Gyu Ri Kim
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Yun Jin Kim
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xiamen University Malaysia, Sepang, Malaysia
| | - Adnan Kisa
- School of Health Sciences, Kristiania University College, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana
| | - Sezer Kisa
- Department of Nursing and Health Promotion, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Jacek A. Kopec
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Arthritis Research Canada, Richmond, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | - Parvaiz A. Koul
- Department of Internal and Pulmonary Medicine, Sheri Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences, Srinagar, India
| | | | - Ai Koyanagi
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network, San Juan de Dios Sanitary Park, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Nuworza Kugbey
- University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya, Ghana
| | | | - Narinder Kumar
- Department of Orthopaedics, Medanta Hospital, Lucknow, India
| | - Nithin Kumar
- Department of Community Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Om P. Kurmi
- Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Coventry University, Coventry, England
- Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Tezer Kutluk
- Department of Pediatric Oncology, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Carlo La Vecchia
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Faris Hasan Lami
- Department of Community and Family Medicine, University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq
| | - Iván Landires
- Unit of Genetics and Public Health, Institute of Medical Sciences, Las Tablas, Panama
- Ministry of Health, Herrera, Panama
| | - Paolo Lauriola
- Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Research Council, Pisa, Italy
| | - Sang-woong Lee
- Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning Lab, Gachon University, Seongnam, South Korea
| | - Shaun Wen Huey Lee
- School of Pharmacy, Monash University, Bandar Sunway, Malaysia
- School of Pharmacy, Taylor's University Lakeside Campus, Subang Jaya, Malaysia
| | - Wei-Chen Lee
- Office of Health Policy & Legislative Affairs, University of Texas, Galveston
| | - Yo Han Lee
- Graduate School of Public Health, Ajou University, Suwon-si, South Korea
| | - James Leigh
- Asbestos Diseases Research Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Elvynna Leong
- Faculty of Science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei
| | - Jiarui Li
- Department of Medical Oncology, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Ming-Chieh Li
- Department of Health Promotion and Health Education, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Xuefeng Liu
- Lerner Research Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio
- Department of Quantitative Health Science, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Joana A. Loureiro
- Laboratory for Process Engineering, Environment, Biotechnology and Energy, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- School of Health, Polytechnic Institute of Porto, Portugal
| | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- Department of General Surgery, Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, England
- Department of Surgery, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, England
| | | | - Azeem Majeed
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, England
| | - Alaa Makki
- Mass Communication Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Shilpa Male
- Department of Ophthalmology, M M Joshi Eye Institute, Hubli, India
| | - Ahmad Azam Malik
- University Institute of Public Health, University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
- Rabigh Faculty of Medicine, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohammad Ali Mansournia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Santi Martini
- Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia
- Indonesian Public Health Association, Surabaya, Indonesia
| | | | - Prashant Mathur
- National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research, Indian Council of Medical Research, Bengaluru, India
| | - Martin McKee
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, England
| | - Ravi Mehrotra
- India Cancer Research Consortium, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Walter Mendoza
- Peru Country Office, United Nations Population Fund, Lima, Peru
| | - Ritesh G. Menezes
- Forensic Medicine Division, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Mohamed Kamal Mesregah
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Menoufia University Faculty of Medicine, Shebin El-Kom, Egypt
| | - Tomislav Mestrovic
- Clinical Microbiology and Parasitology Unit, Polyclinic “Dr. Zora Profozic”, Zagreb, Croatia
- University Centre Varazdin, University North, Varazdin, Croatia
| | - Junmei Miao Jonasson
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Bartosz Miazgowski
- Center for Innovation in Medical Education, Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland
- Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland
| | - Tomasz Miazgowski
- Department of Propedeutics of Internal Diseases and Arterial Hypertension, Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland
| | | | - Ted R. Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Hamed Mirzaei
- Research Center for Biochemistry and Nutrition in Metabolic Diseases, Kashan University of Medical Sciences, Kashan, Iran
| | - Hamid Reza Mirzaei
- Department of Medical Immunology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Sanjeev Misra
- Department of Surgical Oncology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | - Prasanna Mithra
- Department of Community Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Masoud Moghadaszadeh
- Biotechnology Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Molecular Medicine Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | | | - Yousef Mohammad
- Internal Medicine Department, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mokhtar Mohammadi
- Department of Information Technology, Lebanese French University, Erbil, Iraq
| | | | | | - Shafiu Mohammed
- Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
- Department of Health Care Management, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nagabhishek Moka
- Oncology Department, Appalachian Regional Healthcare, Hazard, Kentucky
- Internal Medicine, University of Kentucky, Lexington
| | - Ali H. Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mariam Molokhia
- Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King's College London, London, England
| | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Mohammad Ali Moni
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Pabna University of Science and Technology, Pabna, Bangladesh
| | - Mohammad Amin Moosavi
- Department of Molecular Medicine, National Institute of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yousef Moradi
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical, and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | - Abbas Mosapour
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Sumaira Mubarik
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Lillian Mwanri
- College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adeaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan
- Research and Analytics Department, Initiative for Financing Health and Human Development, Chennai, India
- Department of Research and Analytics, Bioinsilico Technologies, Chennai, India
| | | | - Chie Nagata
- Department of Education for Clinical Research, National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mukhammad David Naimzada
- Laboratory of Public Health Indicators Analysis and Health Digitalization, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russia
- Experimental Surgery and Oncology Laboratory, Kursk State Medical University, Kursk, Russia
| | | | - Atta Abbas Naqvi
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
- Discipline of Social and Administrative Pharmacy, University of Science, Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia
| | | | - Rawlance Ndejjo
- Department of Disease Control and Environmental Health, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Sabina O. Nduaguba
- Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy Department, University of Florida, Gainesville
| | - Ionut Negoi
- Department of General Surgery, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
- Department of General Surgery, Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Serban Mircea Negru
- Department of Oncology, Victor Babes University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Timisoara, Romania
| | | | - Cuong Tat Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | | | - Chukwudi A. Nnaji
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Nurulamin M. Noor
- Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit, University College London, London, England
- Department of Gastroenterology, Cambridge University Hospitals, Cambridge, England
| | - Virginia Nuñez-Samudio
- Unit of Microbiology and Public Health, Institute of Medical Sciences, Las Tablas, Panama
- Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Herrera, Panama
| | | | - Bogdan Oancea
- Administrative and Economic Sciences Department, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Chimedsuren Ochir
- Department of International Cyber Education, Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
- Advisory Board, Ministry of Health, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya
- Department of Community Health and Primary Care, University of Lagos, Idi Araba, Nigeria
- Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City
| | - Felix Akpojene Ogbo
- Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Andrew T. Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | | | - Emad Omar
- Mass Communication Department, Ajman University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - Ahmed Omar Bali
- Diplomacy and Public Relations Department, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
| | - Abidemi E. Emmanuel Omonisi
- Department of Anatomic Pathology, Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria
- Department of Anatomic Pathology, Ekiti State University Teaching Hospital, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria
| | - Sokking Ong
- Noncommunicable Disease Prevention Unit, Ministry of Health, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei
- Early Detection and Cancer Prevention Services, Pantai Jerudong Specialist Centre, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei
| | - Obinna E. Onwujekwe
- Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Enugu, Nigeria
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
- Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umea, Sweden
| | | | - Nikita Otstavnov
- Laboratory of Public Health Indicators Analysis and Health Digitalization, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russia
| | - Stanislav S. Otstavnov
- Laboratory of Public Health Indicators Analysis and Health Digitalization, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russia
- Department of Project Management, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
| | - Mayowa O. Owolabi
- Department of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
- Department of Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Mahesh P A
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Jagadguru Sri Shivarathreeswara Academy of Health Education and Research, Mysore, India
| | - Jagadish Rao Padubidri
- Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Keyvan Pakshir
- Department of Medical Mycology and Parasitology, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Adrian Pana
- Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Health Metrics, Center for Health Outcomes and Evaluation, Bucharest, Romania
| | | | | | - Shahina Pardhan
- Vision and Eye Research Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, England
| | - Eun-Cheol Park
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute of Health Services Research, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Eun-Kee Park
- Department of Medical Humanities and Social Medicine, Kosin University, Busan, South Korea
| | | | - Harsh K. Patel
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ochsner Medical Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
| | - Jenil R. Patel
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston School of Public Health, Dallas
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock
| | - Siddhartha Pati
- Centre of Excellence, Khallikote University, Berhampur, India
- Research Division, Association for Biodiversity Conservation and Research, Balasore, India
| | | | - Uttam Paudel
- Research Section, Nepal Health Research Council, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - David M. Pereira
- Associated Laboratory for Green Chemistry, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Arokiasamy Perianayagam
- Department of Development Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | - Julian David Pillay
- Basic Medical Sciences Department, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa
| | - Saeed Pirouzpanah
- Department of Biochemistry and Dietetics, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Farhad Pishgar
- Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Urooncology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Indrashis Podder
- Department of Dermatology, College of Medicine and Sagore Dutta Hospital, Kolkata, India
| | - Maarten J. Postma
- University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
- School of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
| | - Hadi Pourjafar
- Department of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
- Dietary Supplements and Probiotic Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Akila Prashant
- Department of Biochemistry, Jagadguru Sri Shivarathreeswara University, Mysuru, India
| | - Liliana Preotescu
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Bucuresti, Romania
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Mohammad Rabiee
- Biomedical Engineering Department, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
| | - Navid Rabiee
- Department of Physics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
| | - Amir Radfar
- College of Medicine, University of Central Florida, Orlando
| | | | | | - Ata Rafiee
- Department of Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Fakher Rahim
- Metabolomics and Genomics Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Shadi Rahimzadeh
- Department of Natural Science, Middlesex University, London, England
| | - Mosiur Rahman
- Department of Population Science and Human Resource Development, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh
| | - Muhammad Aziz Rahman
- School of Nursing and Healthcare Professions, Federation University Australia, Berwick, Victoria, Australia
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Amir Masoud Rahmani
- Future Technology Research Center, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Yunlin, Taiwan
| | - Nazanin Rajai
- Department of Internal Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Aashish Rajesh
- Department of Surgery, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, San Antonio
| | - Ivo Rakovac
- European Office for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases, World Health Organization, Moscow, Russia
| | - Pradhum Ram
- Department of Cardiology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Kiana Ramezanzadeh
- Department of Pharmacology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kamal Ranabhat
- Health Emergency Operation Center, Ministry of Health and Population, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Central Department of Public Health, Institute of Medicine, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | | | - Chythra R. Rao
- Department of Community Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Sowmya J. Rao
- Department of Oral Pathology, Srinivas Institute of Dental Sciences, Mangalore, India
| | - Reza Rawassizadeh
- Department of Computer Science, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia
- Department of Immunology and Laboratory Sciences, Sirjan School of Medical Sciences, Sirjan, Iran
- Department of Immunology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Andre M. N. Renzaho
- School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Campbelltown, New South Wales, Australia
- Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Campbelltown, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Negar Rezaei
- Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Nima Rezaei
- Research Center for Immunodeficiencies, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Network of Immunity in Infection, Malignancy and Autoimmunity, Universal Scientific Education and Research Network, Tehran, Iran
| | - Aziz Rezapour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Peter Rohloff
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
- Center for Indigenous Health Research, Wuqu' Kawoq Maya Health Alliance, Tecpan, Guatemala
| | | | - Luca Ronfani
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | | | - Manjula S
- Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Jagadguru Sri Shivarathreeswara University, Mysore, India
| | - Siamak Sabour
- Department of Epidemiology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Basema Saddik
- Sharjah Institute for Medical Research, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Umar Saeed
- Research and Development, Islamabad Diagnostic Center Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan
- Biological Production Development, National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Amirhossein Sahebkar
- Applied Biomedical Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
- Biotechnology Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Harihar Sahoo
- Department of Development Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | - Sana Salehi
- Department of Radiology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
| | - Marwa Rashad Salem
- Public Health and Community Medicine Department, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
| | - Hamideh Salimzadeh
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mehrnoosh Samaei
- Emergency Department, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
| | | | - Juan Sanabria
- Department of Surgery, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia
- Department of Nutrition and Preventive Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Senthilkumar Sankararaman
- Department of Pediatrics, University Hospitals Rainbow Babies & Children's Hospital, Cleveland, Ohio
- Department of Pediatrics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Milena M. Santric-Milicevic
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
- School of Public Health and Health Management, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Yaeesh Sardiwalla
- Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Arash Sarveazad
- Colorectal Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Brijesh Sathian
- Geriatric and Long-Term Care Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Faculty of Health & Social Sciences, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, England
| | - Monika Sawhney
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte
| | | | | | - Mario Sekerija
- Department of Medical Statistics, Epidemiology and Medical Informatics, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
- Department of Epidemiology and Prevention of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases, Croatian Institute of Public Health, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Allen Seylani
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Omid Shafaat
- Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
- Department of Radiology and Interventional Neuroradiology, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Zahra Shaghaghi
- Clinical Research Development Unit of Farshchian Heart Center, Hamedan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
| | | | - Erfan Shamsoddin
- Department of Oral Health, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran, Iran
- Noncommunicable Diseases Committee, National Institute for Medical Research Developmen, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammed Shannawaz
- Symbiosis Medical College for Women, Symbiosis International University, Pune, India
| | - Rajesh Sharma
- University School of Management and Entrepreneurship, Delhi Technological University, Delhi, India
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Centre for Medical Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Sara Sheikhbahaei
- Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Adithi Shetty
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Jeevan K. Shetty
- Department of Biochemistry, Manipal University College Melaka, Melaka, Malaysia
| | - Pavanchand H. Shetty
- Department of Forensic Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | | | - Reza Shirkoohi
- Cancer Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Cancer Biology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - K. M. Shivakumar
- Public Health Dentistry Department, Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences, Karad, India
| | - Velizar Shivarov
- Clinical Immunology and Hematology, Sofiamed University Hospital, Sofia, Bulgaria
- Department of Genetics, Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridiski, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Soraya Siabani
- Department of Health Education and Health Promotion, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
- School of Health, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | | | - Jasvinder A. Singh
- School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham
- Medicine Service Department of Veterans Affairs, Birmingham, Alabama
| | | | | | | | - Matthew J. Soeberg
- Asbestos Diseases Research Institute, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi
- Department of Oral Health, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran, Iran
- Cochrane Iran Associate Centre, National Institute for Medical Research Development, Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Houman Sotoudeh
- Department of Radiology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham
| | | | - Kurt Straif
- Schiller Institute, Boston College, Boston, Massachusetts
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | | | - Iyad Sultan
- Pediatric Services, King Hussein Cancer Center, Amman, Jordan
- Pediatrics, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
| | - Saima Sultana
- Maternal and Child Health, Projahnmo Research Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Daniel Sur
- Department of Medical Oncology, The Oncology Institute “Prof Dr Ion Chiricuţă” Cluj-Napoca, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
- Department of Medical Oncology, Iuliu Hatieganu University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Viktória Szerencsés
- Health Services Management Training Centre, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Miklós Szócska
- Faculty of Health and Public Administration, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos
- Department of Medicine, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
- Carlos III Health Institute, Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network, Madrid, Spain
| | - Takahiro Tabuchi
- Cancer Control Center, Osaka International Cancer Institute, Osaka, Japan
| | | | - Amir Taherkhani
- Research Center for Molecular Medicine, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
| | - Ken Takahashi
- Asbestos Diseases Research Institute, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Iman M. Talaat
- Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
- Pathology Department, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Ker-Kan Tan
- Department of Surgery, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Vivian Y. Tat
- Department of Pathology, University of Texas, Galveston
| | - Bemnet Amare A. Tedla
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia
- University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | | | - Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Community and Family Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Fisaha Haile Tesfay
- School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
- Southgate Institute for Health and Society, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Gizachew Assefa Tessema
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Rekha Thapar
- Department of Community Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
| | - Aravind Thavamani
- Department of Pediatrics, University Hospitals Rainbow Babies & Children's Hospital, Cleveland, Ohio
- Division of Pediatric Gastroenterology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | | | - Nihal Thomas
- Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Christian Medical College and Hospital, Vellore, India
| | - Hamid Reza Tohidinik
- HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center and World Health Organization Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Mathilde Touvier
- Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team, National Institute for Health and Medical Research Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale, Paris, France
- Department of Health, Medicine and Human Biology, Sorbonne Paris Nord University, Bobigny, France
| | - Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone
- Department of Pathology and Legal Medicine, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, Brazil
- Modestum LTD, London, England
| | - Eugenio Traini
- Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit, Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Bach Xuan Tran
- Department of Health Economics, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Khanh Bao Tran
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Pathology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Clinical Hematology and Toxicology, Maurice Wilkins Centre, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Mai Thi Ngoc Tran
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Health Informatics Department, Nursing and Midwifery Faculty, Hanoi Medical University, Ha Noi, Vietnam
| | - Jaya Prasad Tripathy
- Department of Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Nagpur, India
| | - Biruk Shalmeno Tusa
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Haramaya University, Haramaya, Ethiopia
| | - Irfan Ullah
- Department of Allied Health Sciences, Iqra National University, Peshawar, Pakistan
- Pakistan Council for Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Saif Ullah
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | | | | | - Era Upadhyay
- Amity Institute of Biotechnology, Amity University Rajasthan, Jaipur, India
| | - Marco Vacante
- Department of General Surgery and Medical-Surgical Specialties, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Maryam Vaezi
- Alzahra Teaching Hospital, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Women's Reproductive Health Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Sahel Valadan Tahbaz
- Clinical Cancer Research Center, Milad General Hospital, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Microbiology, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Diana Zuleika Velazquez
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Autonomous University of Sinaloa, Culiacán Rosales, Mexico
| | - Massimiliano Veroux
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences and Advanced Technologies, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
| | - Francesco S. Violante
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
- Occupational Health Unit, Sant'Orsola Malpighi Hospital, Bologna, Italy
| | - Vasily Vlassov
- Department of Health Care Administration and Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
| | - Bay Vo
- Faculty of Information Technology, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Victor Volovici
- Department of Neurosurgery, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
- Center for Experimental Microsurgery, Iuliu Hațieganu University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Giang Thu Vu
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Yasir Waheed
- Foundation University Medical College, Foundation University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Richard G. Wamai
- Cultures, Societies and Global Studies, Integrated Initiative for Global Health, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts
- School of Public Health, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Paul Ward
- College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Yi Feng Wen
- Key Laboratory of Shaanxi Province for Craniofacial Precision Medicine Research, Stomatological Hospital (College) of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Ronny Westerman
- Competence Center of Mortality-Follow-Up of the German National Cohort, Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
| | - Andrea Sylvia Winkler
- Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Neurology, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Lalit Yadav
- Adelaide Medical School, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- Research and Development Division, The George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Lin Yang
- Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, British Columbia, Canada
- Department of Oncology, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Sanni Yaya
- School of International Development and Global Studies, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- George Institute for Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, England
| | | | - Yigizie Yeshaw
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Neuropsychopharmacology, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodaira, Japan
- Department of Public Health, Juntendo University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mustafa Z. Younis
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Jackson State University, Jackson, Mississippi
- School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Zabihollah Yousefi
- Department of Environmental Health, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Deniz Yuce
- Cancer Institute, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Ismaeel Yunusa
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia
| | - Vesna Zadnik
- Epidemiology and Cancer Registry Sector, Institute of Oncology Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Fariba Zare
- Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran
| | - Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin
- Laboratory of Genetics and Genomics, Moscow Research and Practical Centre on Addictions, Moscow, Russia
- Addictology Department, Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education, Moscow, Russia
| | - Anasthasia Zastrozhina
- Pediatrics Department, Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education, Moscow, Russia
| | - Jianrong Zhang
- Department of General Practice, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Chenwen Zhong
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Linghui Zhou
- Bone Marrow Transplantation Center, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Cong Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics, and Environmental Sciences, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston
| | - Arash Ziapour
- Department of Health Education and Health Promotion, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | | | - Christina Fitzmaurice
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Division of Hematology, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Christopher J. L. Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Lisa M. Force
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Division of Pediatric Hematology-Oncology, University of Washington, Seattle
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Ingole V, Sheridan SC, Juvekar S, Achebak H, Moraga P. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature in Pune city, India: A time series analysis from 2004 to 2012. Environ Res 2022; 204:112304. [PMID: 34743894 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112304] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2021] [Revised: 10/24/2021] [Accepted: 10/26/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures is associated with morbidity and mortality across the globe. Most of these studies assessing the effects of non-optimum temperatures on health and have been conducted in the developed world, whereas in India, the limited evidence on ambient temperature and health risks and has focused mostly on the effects of heat waves. Here we quantify short term association between all temperatures and mortality in urban Pune, India. METHODS We applied a time series regression model to derive temperature-mortality associations based on daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality records of Pune city from year January 2004 to December 2012. We estimated high and low temperature-mortality relationships by using standard time series quasi-Poisson regression in conjunction with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We calculated temperature attributable mortality fractions for total heat and total cold. FINDINGS The analysis provides estimates of the total mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature. Overall, 6∙5% [95%CI 1.76-11∙43] of deaths registered in the observational period were attributed to non-optimal temperatures, cold effect was greater 5.72% [95%CI 0∙70-10∙06] than heat 0∙84% [0∙35-1∙34]. The gender stratified analysis revealed that the highest burden among men both for heat and cold. CONCLUSION Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden. Our findings could benefit national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vijendra Ingole
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia.
| | - Scott C Sheridan
- Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH, 44242, USA
| | - Sanjay Juvekar
- Vadu Rural Health Program, KEM Hospital Research Centre, Pune, India
| | | | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
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Mourier T, Shuaib M, Hala S, Mfarrej S, Alofi F, Naeem R, Alsomali A, Jorgensen D, Subudhi AK, Ben Rached F, Guan Q, Salunke RP, Ooi A, Esau L, Douvropoulou O, Nugmanova R, Perumal S, Zhang H, Rajan I, Al-Omari A, Salih S, Shamsan A, Al Mutair A, Taha J, Alahmadi A, Khotani N, Alhamss A, Mahmoud A, Alquthami K, Dageeg A, Khogeer A, Hashem AM, Moraga P, Volz E, Almontashiri N, Pain A. SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Saudi Arabia implicate nucleocapsid mutations in host response and increased viral load. Nat Commun 2022; 13:601. [PMID: 35105893 PMCID: PMC8807822 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28287-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2021] [Accepted: 01/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 spread and evolution through genome sequencing is essential in handling the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we sequenced 892 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from patients in Saudi Arabia from March to August 2020. We show that two consecutive mutations (R203K/G204R) in the nucleocapsid (N) protein are associated with higher viral loads in COVID-19 patients. Our comparative biochemical analysis reveals that the mutant N protein displays enhanced viral RNA binding and differential interaction with key host proteins. We found increased interaction of GSK3A kinase simultaneously with hyper-phosphorylation of the adjacent serine site (S206) in the mutant N protein. Furthermore, the host cell transcriptome analysis suggests that the mutant N protein produces dysregulated interferon response genes. Here, we provide crucial information in linking the R203K/G204R mutations in the N protein to modulations of host-virus interactions and underline the potential of the nucleocapsid protein as a drug target during infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tobias Mourier
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Muhammad Shuaib
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Sharif Hala
- Infectious Disease Research Department, King Abdullah International Medical Research Centre, Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
- King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Sara Mfarrej
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Fadwa Alofi
- Infectious Diseases Department, King Fahad Hospital, Madinah, MOH, Saudi Arabia
| | - Raeece Naeem
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Afrah Alsomali
- Infectious Diseases Department, King Abdullah Medical Complex, Jeddah, MOH, Saudi Arabia
| | - David Jorgensen
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, Norfolk Place, St Mary's Campus, London, United Kingdom
| | - Amit Kumar Subudhi
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Fathia Ben Rached
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Qingtian Guan
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Rahul P Salunke
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Amanda Ooi
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Luke Esau
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Olga Douvropoulou
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Raushan Nugmanova
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Sadhasivam Perumal
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Huoming Zhang
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Issaac Rajan
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Awad Al-Omari
- Dr. Suliman Al-Habib Medical Group, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Samer Salih
- Dr. Suliman Al-Habib Medical Group, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abbas Shamsan
- Dr. Suliman Al-Habib Medical Group, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Jumana Taha
- Department of Neuroscience, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abdulaziz Alahmadi
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nashwa Khotani
- Infectious Diseases Medical Department, Al Noor Specialist Hospital Makkah, Makkah, MOH, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abdelrahman Alhamss
- Gastroenterology Department, King Abdul Aziz Hospital Makkah, Makkah, MOH, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ahmed Mahmoud
- College of Applied Medical Sciences, Taibah University, Madinah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Khaled Alquthami
- Infectious Diseases Medical Department, Al Noor Specialist Hospital Makkah, Makkah, MOH, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abdullah Dageeg
- Department of Medicine, King Abdulaziz University Jeddah, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Asim Khogeer
- Plan and Research Department, General Directorate of Health Affairs Makkah Region, Makkah, MOH, Saudi Arabia
| | - Anwar M Hashem
- Vaccines and Immunotherapy Unit, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Paula Moraga
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering Division (CEMSE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Eric Volz
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, Norfolk Place, St Mary's Campus, London, United Kingdom
| | - Naif Almontashiri
- College of Applied Medical Sciences, Taibah University, Madinah, Saudi Arabia
- Center for Genetics and Inherited Diseases, Taibah University, Almadinah Almunwarah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Arnab Pain
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Pathogen Genomics Laboratory, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE), Thuwal-Jeddah, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia.
- Research Center for Zoonosis Control, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education (GI-CoRE), Hokkaido University, N20 W10 Kita-ku, Sapporo, 001-0020, Japan.
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Alvarez EM, Force LM, Xu R, Compton K, Lu D, Henrikson HJ, Kocarnik JM, Harvey JD, Pennini A, Dean FE, Fu W, Vargas MT, Keegan THM, Ariffin H, Barr RD, Erdomaeva YA, Gunasekera DS, John-Akinola YO, Ketterl TG, Kutluk T, Malogolowkin MH, Mathur P, Radhakrishnan V, Ries LAG, Rodriguez-Galindo C, Sagoyan GB, Sultan I, Abbasi B, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abbastabar H, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdoli A, Abebe H, Abedi A, Abidi H, Abolhassani H, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Achappa B, Acuna JM, Adedeji IA, Adegboye OA, Adnani QES, Advani SM, Afzal MS, Aghaie Meybodi M, Ahadinezhad B, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi S, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Ahmed Salih Y, Aiman W, Akalu GT, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, AlAmodi AA, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alem AZ, Alem DT, Alemayehu Y, Alhalaiqa FN, Alhassan RK, Ali S, Alicandro G, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alkhayyat M, Alluri S, Almasri NA, Al-Maweri SA, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Ameyaw EK, Amini S, Amu H, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anvari D, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Argaw AM, Arshad M, Arulappan J, Aryannejad A, Asemi Z, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Atashzar MR, Atorkey P, Atreya A, Attia S, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awedew AF, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele AD, Ayen SS, Azab MA, Azadnajafabad S, Azami H, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari Jafari A, Azarian G, Azzam AY, Bahadory S, Bai J, Baig AA, Baker JL, Banach M, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barra F, Barrow A, Basaleem H, Batiha AMM, Behzadifar M, Bekele NC, Belete R, Belgaumi UI, Bell AW, Berhie AY, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharyya K, Bhojaraja VS, Bibi S, Bijani A, Biondi A, Birara S, Bjørge T, Bolarinwa OA, Bolla SR, Boloor A, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Bulamu NB, Burkart K, Bustamante-Teixeira MT, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cao C, Cao Y, Carreras G, Catalá-López F, Cembranel F, Cerin E, Chakinala RC, Chakraborty PA, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chaurasia A, Chavan PP, Chimed-Ochir O, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Chung MT, Conde J, Costa VM, Da'ar OB, Dadras O, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Damiani G, D'Amico E, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darwish AH, Daryani A, De la Hoz FP, Debela SA, Demie TGG, Demissie GD, Demissie ZG, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Derbew Molla M, Desai R, Desta AA, Dhamnetiya D, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Dianatinasab M, Didehdar M, Diress M, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doaei S, Dorostkar F, dos Santos WM, Drake TM, Ekholuenetale M, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, El-Abid H, Elbahnasawy MA, Elbarazi I, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, El-Jaafary SI, Enyew DB, Erkhembayar R, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Faisaluddin M, Fares J, Farooque U, Fasanmi AO, Fatima W, Ferreira de Oliveira JMP, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Gaewkhiew P, Gallus S, Garg T, Gebremeskel TG, Gemeda BNB, Getachew T, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari SH, Ghashghaee A, Ghassemi F, Ghith N, Gholami A, Gholizadeh Navashenaq J, Gilani SA, Ginindza TG, Gizaw AT, Glasbey JC, Goel A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Gubari MIM, Guerra MR, Guha A, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haddadi R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hambisa MT, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Haque S, Hariri S, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan SMM, Hashemi SM, Hassan TS, Hassanipour S, Hay SI, Hayat K, Hebo SH, Heidari G, Heidari M, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Heyi DZ, Hezam K, Hole MK, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hossain MB, Hosseini MS, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh A, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsairi M, Huang J, Hussein NR, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Innos K, Irham LM, Islam RM, Islam SMS, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, Jacob L, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jain V, Jakovljevic M, Janghorban R, Javadi Mamaghani A, Jayaram S, Jayawardena R, Jazayeri SB, Jebai R, Jha RP, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jürisson M, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kamal Z, Kamath A, Kandel H, Kar SS, Karaye IM, Karimi A, Kassa BG, Kauppila JH, Kemp Bohan PM, Kengne AP, Kerbo AA, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalili N, Khalili N, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan M, Khan MN, Khan MAB, Khanali J, Khayamzadeh M, Khosravizadeh O, Khubchandani J, Khundkar R, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kolahi AA, Kopec JA, Koteeswaran R, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kwarteng A, La Vecchia C, Lan Q, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Ledda C, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YY, Lee YH, Leigh J, Leong E, Li B, Li J, Li MC, Lim SS, Liu X, Lobo SW, Loureiro JA, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Makki A, Male S, Malekpour MR, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Mamun MA, Manafi N, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martini S, Masoumi SZ, Matei CN, Mathur MR, McAlinden C, Mehrotra R, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mentis AFA, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AG, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski B, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mingude AB, Mirmoeeni S, Mirzaei H, Misra S, Mithra P, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadi SM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed A, Mohammed S, Mohammed TA, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moradi G, Moradi Y, Moradzadeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morrison SD, Mostafavi E, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Mubarik S, Mwanri L, Nabhan AF, Nagaraju SP, Nagata C, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Naldi L, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nazari J, Nduaguba SO, Negoi I, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nepal S, Neupane Kandel S, Nggada HA, Nguyen CT, Nnaji CA, Nosrati H, Nouraei H, Nowroozi A, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nwatah VE, Nzoputam CI, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olakunde BO, Oluwasanu MM, Omar E, Omar Bali A, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Oumer B, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Pana A, Pandey A, Pardhan S, Pashazadeh Kan F, Pasovic M, Patel JR, Pati S, Pattanshetty SM, Paudel U, Pereira RB, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourshams A, Prashant A, Pulakunta T, Qadir MMFF, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, Rafiee A, Rafiei A, Rafiei S, Rahim F, Rahimzadeh S, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rajesh A, Ramezani-Doroh V, Ranabhat K, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rashedi S, Rashidi M, Rashidi MM, Rath GK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghinia MS, Regasa MT, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rezapour A, Rezazadeh-Khadem S, Riad A, Rios Lopez LE, Rodriguez JAB, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rwegerera GM, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Sajadi SM, Salahi S, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanmarchi F, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Sawyer SM, Saylan M, Schneider IJC, Seidu AA, Šekerija M, Sendo EG, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Seyoum K, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shaikh MA, Shamsoddin E, Shannawaz M, Sharma R, Sheikhbahaei S, Shetty A, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Shin JI, Shirkoohi R, Shivakumar KM, Shobeiri P, Siabani S, Sibhat MM, Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Sidemo NB, Silva DAS, Silva Julian G, Singh AD, Singh JA, Singh JK, Singh S, Sinke AH, Sintayehu Y, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Smith L, Sofi-Mahmudi A, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Song S, Spurlock EE, Steiropoulos P, Straif K, Subedi R, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana S, Szerencsés V, Szócska M, Tabaeian SP, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabary M, Tabuchi T, Tadbiri H, Taheri M, Taherkhani A, Takahashi K, Tampa M, Tan KK, Tat VY, Tavakoli A, Tbakhi A, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesfay FH, Tesfaye B, Thakur JS, Thapar R, Thavamani A, Thiyagarajan A, Thomas N, Tobe-Gai R, Togtmol M, Tohidast SA, Tohidinik HR, Tolani MA, Tollosa DN, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tran MTN, Tripathy JP, Tusa BS, Ukke GG, Ullah I, Ullah S, Umapathi KK, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Ushula TW, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Varthya SB, Veroux M, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Wang N, Ward P, Weldesenbet AB, Wen YF, Westerman R, Winkler AS, Wubishet BL, Xu S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yang L, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yazie TS, Yehualashet SS, Yeshaneh A, Yeshaw Y, Yirdaw BW, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zadnik V, Zahir M, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zandian H, Zare F, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang J, Zhang ZJ, Ziapour A, Zoladl M, Murray CJL, Fitzmaurice C, Bleyer A, Bhakta N. The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Oncol 2022; 23:27-52. [PMID: 34871551 PMCID: PMC8716339 DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(21)00581-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 87] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2021] [Revised: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 09/29/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. METHODS Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. FINDINGS There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. INTERPRETATION Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.
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Moraga P, Dean C, Inoue J, Morawiecki P, Noureen SR, Wang F. Bayesian spatial modelling of geostatistical data using INLA and SPDE methods: A case study predicting malaria risk in Mozambique. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2021; 39:100440. [PMID: 34774255 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2021.100440] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2020] [Revised: 05/25/2021] [Accepted: 07/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Bayesian spatial models are widely used to analyse data that arise in scientific disciplines such as health, ecology, and the environment. Traditionally, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been used to fit these type of models. However, these are highly computationally intensive methods that present a wide range of issues in terms of convergence and can become infeasible in big data problems. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method is a computational less-intensive alternative to MCMC that allows us to perform approximate Bayesian inference in latent Gaussian models such as generalised linear mixed models and spatial and spatio-temporal models. This approach can be used in combination with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach to analyse geostatistical data that have been collected at particular sites to predict the spatial process underlying the data as well as to assess the effect of covariates and model other sources of variability. Here we demonstrate how to fit a Bayesian spatial model using the INLA and SPDE approaches applied to freely available data of malaria prevalence and risk factors in Mozambique. We show how to fit and interpret the model to predict malaria risk and assess the effect of covariates using the R-INLA package, and provide the R code necessary to reproduce the results or to use it in other spatial applications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia.
| | - Christopher Dean
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath, Somerset, BA2 7AY, UK
| | - Joshua Inoue
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath, Somerset, BA2 7AY, UK
| | - Piotr Morawiecki
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath, Somerset, BA2 7AY, UK
| | - Shahzeb Raja Noureen
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath, Somerset, BA2 7AY, UK
| | - Fengpei Wang
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath, Somerset, BA2 7AY, UK
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Bates AE, Primack RB, Biggar BS, Bird TJ, Clinton ME, Command RJ, Richards C, Shellard M, Geraldi NR, Vergara V, Acevedo-Charry O, Colón-Piñeiro Z, Ocampo D, Ocampo-Peñuela N, Sánchez-Clavijo LM, Adamescu CM, Cheval S, Racoviceanu T, Adams MD, Kalisa E, Kuuire VZ, Aditya V, Anderwald P, Wiesmann S, Wipf S, Badihi G, Henderson MG, Loetscher H, Baerenfaller K, Benedetti-Cecchi L, Bulleri F, Bertocci I, Maggi E, Rindi L, Ravaglioli C, Boerder K, Bonnel J, Mathias D, Archambault P, Chauvaud L, Braun CD, Thorrold SR, Brownscombe JW, Midwood JD, Boston CM, Brooks JL, Cooke SJ, China V, Roll U, Belmaker J, Zvuloni A, Coll M, Ortega M, Connors B, Lacko L, Jayathilake DRM, Costello MJ, Crimmins TM, Barnett L, Denny EG, Gerst KL, Marsh RL, Posthumus EE, Rodriguez R, Rosemartin A, Schaffer SN, Switzer JR, Wong K, Cunningham SJ, Sumasgutner P, Amar A, Thomson RL, Stofberg M, Hofmeyr S, Suri J, Stuart-Smith RD, Day PB, Edgar GJ, Cooper AT, De Leo FC, Garner G, Des Brisay PG, Schrimpf MB, Koper N, Diamond MS, Dwyer RG, Baker CJ, Franklin CE, Efrat R, Berger-Tal O, Hatzofe O, Eguíluz VM, Rodríguez JP, Fernández-Gracia J, Elustondo D, Calatayud V, English PA, Archer SK, Dudas SE, Haggarty DR, Gallagher AJ, Shea BD, Shipley ON, Gilby BL, Ballantyne J, Olds AD, Henderson CJ, Schlacher TA, Halliday WD, Brown NAW, Woods MB, Balshine S, Juanes F, Rider MJ, Albano PS, Hammerschlag N, Hays GC, Esteban N, Pan Y, He G, Tanaka T, Hensel MJS, Orth RJ, Patrick CJ, Hentati-Sundberg J, Olsson O, Hessing-Lewis ML, Higgs ND, Hindell MA, McMahon CR, Harcourt R, Guinet C, Hirsch SE, Perrault JR, Hoover SR, Reilly JD, Hobaiter C, Gruber T, Huveneers C, Udyawer V, Clarke TM, Kroesen LP, Hik DS, Cherry SG, Del Bel Belluz JA, Jackson JM, Lai S, Lamb CT, LeClair GD, Parmelee JR, Chatfield MWH, Frederick CA, Lee S, Park H, Choi J, LeTourneux F, Grandmont T, de-Broin FD, Bêty J, Gauthier G, Legagneux P, Lewis JS, Haight J, Liu Z, Lyon JP, Hale R, D'Silva D, MacGregor-Fors I, Arbeláez-Cortés E, Estela FA, Sánchez-Sarria CE, García-Arroyo M, Aguirre-Samboní GK, Franco Morales JC, Malamud S, Gavriel T, Buba Y, Salingré S, Lazarus M, Yahel R, Ari YB, Miller E, Sade R, Lavian G, Birman Z, Gury M, Baz H, Baskin I, Penn A, Dolev A, Licht O, Karkom T, Davidzon S, Berkovitch A, Yaakov O, Manenti R, Mori E, Ficetola GF, Lunghi E, March D, Godley BJ, Martin C, Mihaly SF, Barclay DR, Thomson DJM, Dewey R, Bedard J, Miller A, Dearden A, Chapman J, Dares L, Borden L, Gibbs D, Schultz J, Sergeenko N, Francis F, Weltman A, Moity N, Ramírez-González J, Mucientes G, Alonso-Fernández A, Namir I, Bar-Massada A, Chen R, Yedvab S, Okey TA, Oppel S, Arkumarev V, Bakari S, Dobrev V, Saravia-Mullin V, Bounas A, Dobrev D, Kret E, Mengistu S, Pourchier C, Ruffo A, Tesfaye M, Wondafrash M, Nikolov SC, Palmer C, Sileci L, Rex PT, Lowe CG, Peters F, Pine MK, Radford CA, Wilson L, McWhinnie L, Scuderi A, Jeffs AG, Prudic KL, Larrivée M, McFarland KP, Solis R, Hutchinson RA, Queiroz N, Furtado MA, Sims DW, Southall E, Quesada-Rodriguez CA, Diaz-Orozco JP, Rodgers KS, Severino SJL, Graham AT, Stefanak MP, Madin EMP, Ryan PG, Maclean K, Weideman EA, Şekercioğlu ÇH, Kittelberger KD, Kusak J, Seminoff JA, Hanna ME, Shimada T, Meekan MG, Smith MKS, Mokhatla MM, Soh MCK, Pang RYT, Ng BXK, Lee BPYH, Loo AHB, Er KBH, Souza GBG, Stallings CD, Curtis JS, Faletti ME, Peake JA, Schram MJ, Wall KR, Terry C, Rothendler M, Zipf L, Ulloa JS, Hernández-Palma A, Gómez-Valencia B, Cruz-Rodríguez C, Herrera-Varón Y, Roa M, Rodríguez-Buriticá S, Ochoa-Quintero JM, Vardi R, Vázquez V, Requena-Mesa C, Warrington MH, Taylor ME, Woodall LC, Stefanoudis PV, Zhang X, Yang Q, Zukerman Y, Sigal Z, Ayali A, Clua EEG, Carzon P, Seguine C, Corradini A, Pedrotti L, Foley CM, Gagnon CA, Panipakoochoo E, Milanes CB, Botero CM, Velázquez YR, Milchakova NA, Morley SA, Martin SM, Nanni V, Otero T, Wakeling J, Abarro S, Piou C, Sobral AFL, Soto EH, Weigel EG, Bernal-Ibáñez A, Gestoso I, Cacabelos E, Cagnacci F, Devassy RP, Loretto MC, Moraga P, Rutz C, Duarte CM. Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment. Biol Conserv 2021; 263:109175. [PMID: 34035536 PMCID: PMC8135229 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2021] [Accepted: 05/07/2021] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus, initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda E Bates
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, 0 Marine Lab Road, St. John's A1K 3E6, Canada
| | - Richard B Primack
- Biology Department, Boston University, 881 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, United States
| | - Brandy S Biggar
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, 0 Marine Lab Road, St. John's A1K 3E6, Canada
| | - Tomas J Bird
- Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, 80 E White Hills Rd, St. John's A1A 5J7, Canada
| | - Mary E Clinton
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, 0 Marine Lab Road, St. John's A1K 3E6, Canada
| | - Rylan J Command
- School of Ocean Technology, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, 155 Ridge Rd, St. John's, NL A1C 5R3, Canada
| | - Cerren Richards
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, 0 Marine Lab Road, St. John's A1K 3E6, Canada
| | - Marc Shellard
- Red Sea Research Center and Computational Bioscience Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 23955 Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nathan R Geraldi
- Red Sea Research Center and Computational Bioscience Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 23955 Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Valeria Vergara
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Orlando Acevedo-Charry
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Claustro de San Agustín, Villa de Leyva, Boyacá, Colombia
| | | | - David Ocampo
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Claustro de San Agustín, Villa de Leyva, Boyacá, Colombia
| | - Natalia Ocampo-Peñuela
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Paseo Bolívar 16-20, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
| | - Lina M Sánchez-Clavijo
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Paseo Bolívar 16-20, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
| | - Cristian M Adamescu
- Research Center for Systems Ecology and Sustainability, University of Bucharest, 050095 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Sorin Cheval
- National Meteorological Administration, 013686 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Tudor Racoviceanu
- Research Center for Systems Ecology and Sustainability, University of Bucharest, 050095 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Matthew D Adams
- Department of Geography, Geomatics and Environment, University of Toronto, 3359 Mississauga Road, Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6, Canada
| | - Egide Kalisa
- Department of Geography, Geomatics and Environment, University of Toronto, 3359 Mississauga Road, Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6, Canada
| | - Vincent Z Kuuire
- Department of Geography, Geomatics and Environment, University of Toronto, 3359 Mississauga Road, Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6, Canada
| | - Vikram Aditya
- Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, PO, Royal Enclave, Bengaluru, Karnataka 560064, India
| | - Pia Anderwald
- Swiss National Park, Chastè Planta-Wildenberg, Runatsch 124, 7530 Zernez, Switzerland
| | - Samuel Wiesmann
- Swiss National Park, Chastè Planta-Wildenberg, Runatsch 124, 7530 Zernez, Switzerland
| | - Sonja Wipf
- Swiss National Park, Chastè Planta-Wildenberg, Runatsch 124, 7530 Zernez, Switzerland
| | - Gal Badihi
- Origins of Mind, School of Psychology, University of St Andrews, St Marys Quad, St Andrews, Fife KY16 9JP, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew G Henderson
- Origins of Mind, School of Psychology, University of St Andrews, St Marys Quad, St Andrews, Fife KY16 9JP, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Hanspeter Loetscher
- Office for Nature and Environment of the Grisons, Ringstrasse 10, 7001 Chur, Switzerland
| | - Katja Baerenfaller
- Swiss Institute of Allergy and Asthma Research (SIAF), University of Zurich and Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics (SIB), 7265 Davos, Switzerland
| | | | - Fabio Bulleri
- Department of Biology, University of Pisa, Via Derna 1, I-56126 Pisa, Italy
| | - Iacopo Bertocci
- Department of Biology, University of Pisa, Via Derna 1, I-56126 Pisa, Italy
| | - Elena Maggi
- Department of Biology, University of Pisa, Via Derna 1, I-56126 Pisa, Italy
| | - Luca Rindi
- Department of Biology, University of Pisa, Via Derna 1, I-56126 Pisa, Italy
| | - Chiara Ravaglioli
- Department of Biology, University of Pisa, Via Derna 1, I-56126 Pisa, Italy
| | - Kristina Boerder
- Biology Department, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4J1, Canada
| | - Julien Bonnel
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering Department, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
| | - Delphine Mathias
- Société d'Observation Multi-Modale de l'Environnement, 115 Rue Claude Chappe, 29280 Plouzané, France
| | - Philippe Archambault
- ArcticNet, Département de Biologie, Québec-Océan, Université Laval, 2325 Rue de l'Université, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Laurent Chauvaud
- Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement Marin (LEMAR), UMR 6539 CNRS, UBO, IRD, Ifremer, Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), LIA BeBEST, rue Dumont D'Urville, 29280 Plouzané, France
| | - Camrin D Braun
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
| | - Simon R Thorrold
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
| | - Jacob W Brownscombe
- Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
| | - Jonathan D Midwood
- Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
| | - Christine M Boston
- Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7S 1A1, Canada
| | - Jill L Brooks
- Fish Ecology and Conservation Physiology Laboratory, Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Steven J Cooke
- Fish Ecology and Conservation Physiology Laboratory, Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Victor China
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
| | - Uri Roll
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
| | - Jonathan Belmaker
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, P.O. Box 39040, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel
- The Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, P.O. Box 39040, Tel Aviv 6139001, Israel
| | - Assaf Zvuloni
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, 95463 Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science (CSIC), Passeig Maritim de la Barceloneta 37-49 & Ecopath International Initiative (EII), Barcelona 08003, Spain
| | - Miquel Ortega
- Fundació ENT, Carrer Josep Llanza, 1-7, 2-3, Vilanova i la Geltrú, Barcelona, 08800 & Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambiental, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Cerdanyola del Valles, Spain
| | - Brendan Connors
- Quantitative Assessment Methods Section, Stock Assessment and Research Division, Pacific Region, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 401 Burrard St Suite 200, Vancouver, BC V6C 3L6, Canada
| | - Lisa Lacko
- Quantitative Assessment Methods Section, Stock Assessment and Research Division, Pacific Region, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 401 Burrard St Suite 200, Vancouver, BC V6C 3L6, Canada
| | | | - Mark J Costello
- Faculty of Biosciences and Aquaculture, Nord University, Bodo 1049, Norway
| | - Theresa M Crimmins
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - LoriAnne Barnett
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Ellen G Denny
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Katharine L Gerst
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - R L Marsh
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Erin E Posthumus
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Reilly Rodriguez
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Alyssa Rosemartin
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Sara N Schaffer
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Jeff R Switzer
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Kevin Wong
- USA National Phenology Network, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, 1200 E. University Blvd, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Susan J Cunningham
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Petra Sumasgutner
- Core Facility Konrad Lorenz Research Center for Behaviour and Cognition, University of Vienna, Fischerau 11, A-4645 Grünau im Almtal, Austria
| | - Arjun Amar
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Robert L Thomson
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Miqkayla Stofberg
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Sally Hofmeyr
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Jessleena Suri
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Rick D Stuart-Smith
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Paul B Day
- Carijoa - Marine Environmental Consulting, 29 Sydenham Street, Rivervale, Perth, Western Australia 6103, Australia
| | - Graham J Edgar
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Antonia T Cooper
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Fabio Cabrera De Leo
- Ocean Networks Canada, University of Victoria, Canada
- Department of Biology, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Grant Garner
- Department of Biology, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Paulson G Des Brisay
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, 150-123 Main St, Winnipeg, MB R3C 4W2, Canada
| | - Michael B Schrimpf
- Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba, 66 Chancellors Cir, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada
| | - Nicola Koper
- Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba, 66 Chancellors Cir, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada
| | | | - Ross G Dwyer
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Queensland 4558, Australia
| | - Cameron J Baker
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Craig E Franklin
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Ron Efrat
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
| | - Oded Berger-Tal
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
| | - Ohad Hatzofe
- Science Division, Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, 95463 Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Víctor M Eguíluz
- Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), E07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
| | - Jorge P Rodríguez
- Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), 07190 Esporles, Spain
| | - Juan Fernández-Gracia
- Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), E07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
| | - David Elustondo
- Instituto de Biodiversidad y Medioambiente (BIOMA), Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona 31080, Spain
| | - Vicent Calatayud
- Fundación CEAM, C/Charles R. Darwin 14, Parque Tecnológico, Paterna, Valencia 46980, Spain
| | - Philina A English
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd, Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7, Canada
| | - Stephanie K Archer
- Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, 8124 LA-56, Chauvin, LA 70344, United States
| | - Sarah E Dudas
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd, Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7, Canada
| | - Dana R Haggarty
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd, Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7, Canada
| | | | | | | | - Ben L Gilby
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Queensland 4558, Australia
| | - Jasmine Ballantyne
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Queensland 4558, Australia
| | - Andrew D Olds
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Queensland 4558, Australia
| | - Christopher J Henderson
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Queensland 4558, Australia
| | - Thomas A Schlacher
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Queensland 4558, Australia
| | - William D Halliday
- Wildlife Conservation Society Canada, P.O. Box 606, 202 B Ave, Kaslo, British Columbia V0G 1M0, Canada
| | - Nicholas A W Brown
- Department of Biology, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Mackenzie B Woods
- Department of Biology, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Sigal Balshine
- Department of Psychology, Neuroscience, and Behaviour, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L8, Canada
| | - Francis Juanes
- Department of Biology, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Mitchell J Rider
- Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 1320 S Dixie Hwy, Coral Gables, FL 33146, United States
| | - Patricia S Albano
- Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 1320 S Dixie Hwy, Coral Gables, FL 33146, United States
| | - Neil Hammerschlag
- Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 1320 S Dixie Hwy, Coral Gables, FL 33146, United States
| | - Graeme C Hays
- Deakin University, 75 Pigdons Road, Waurn Ponds, Geelong, VIC, Australia
| | - Nicole Esteban
- Department of Biosciences, Swansea University, Swansea SA2 8PP, Wales, UK
| | - Yuhang Pan
- Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong
| | - Guojun He
- Division of Environment and Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong
| | - Takanao Tanaka
- Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong
| | - Marc J S Hensel
- Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Sadler Center, 200 Stadium Dr, Williamsburg, VA 23185, United States
| | - Robert J Orth
- Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Sadler Center, 200 Stadium Dr, Williamsburg, VA 23185, United States
| | - Christopher J Patrick
- Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Sadler Center, 200 Stadium Dr, Williamsburg, VA 23185, United States
| | - Jonas Hentati-Sundberg
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Turistgatan 5, 453 30 Lysekil, Sweden
| | - Olof Olsson
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Nicholas D Higgs
- Cape Eleuthera Institute, Cape Eleuthera Island School, PO Box EL-26029, Rock Sound, Eleuthera, The Bahamas
| | - Mark A Hindell
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, TAS 7005, Australia
| | - Clive R McMahon
- Sydney Institute of Marine Science, 19 Chowder Bay Rd, Mosman, NSW 2088, Australia
| | - Rob Harcourt
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Balaclava Rd, Macquarie Park, NSW 2109, Australia
| | - Christophe Guinet
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, Station d'Écologie de Chizé-La Rochelle Université, CNRS UMR7372, Villiers-en-Bois, France
| | - Sarah E Hirsch
- Loggerhead Marinelife Center, 14200 US-1, Juno Beach, FL 33408, United States
| | - Justin R Perrault
- Loggerhead Marinelife Center, 14200 US-1, Juno Beach, FL 33408, United States
| | - Shelby R Hoover
- Loggerhead Marinelife Center, 14200 US-1, Juno Beach, FL 33408, United States
| | - Jennifer D Reilly
- Loggerhead Marinelife Center, 14200 US-1, Juno Beach, FL 33408, United States
| | - Catherine Hobaiter
- Origins of Mind, School of Psychology, University of St Andrews, St Marys Quad, St Andrews, Fife KY16 9JP, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Thibaud Gruber
- Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, Swiss Center for Affective Sciences, Chemin des Mines 9, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Charlie Huveneers
- College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA 5042, Australia
| | - Vinay Udyawer
- Arafura Timor Research Facility, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Darwin, NT 0810, Australia
| | - Thomas M Clarke
- College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA 5042, Australia
| | - Laura P Kroesen
- Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Dr, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - David S Hik
- Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Dr, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - Seth G Cherry
- Parks Canada Agency, 5420 Highway 93, Radium Hot Springs, BC V0A 1M0, Canada
| | | | | | - Shengjie Lai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Hartley Library B12, University Rd, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom
| | - Clayton T Lamb
- Department of Biology, University of British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - Gregory D LeClair
- University of Maine, 168 College Ave, Orono, ME 04469, United States
| | - Jeffrey R Parmelee
- University of New England, Department of Biology, Biddeford, ME 04005, United States
| | | | | | - Sangdon Lee
- Ewha Womans University, 52 Ewhayeodae-gil, Daehyeon-dong, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Hyomin Park
- Ewha Womans University, 52 Ewhayeodae-gil, Daehyeon-dong, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Jaein Choi
- Ewha Womans University, 52 Ewhayeodae-gil, Daehyeon-dong, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Frédéric LeTourneux
- Département de Biologie, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 2325 Rue de l'Université, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Thierry Grandmont
- Département de Biologie, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 2325 Rue de l'Université, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Frédéric Dulude de-Broin
- Département de Biologie, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 2325 Rue de l'Université, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Joël Bêty
- Département de Biologie, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des Ursulines, QC G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Gilles Gauthier
- Département de Biologie, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 2325 Rue de l'Université, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Pierre Legagneux
- Département de Biologie, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 2325 Rue de l'Université, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, Station d'Écologie de Chizé-La Rochelle Université, CNRS UMR7372, Villiers-en-Bois, France
| | - Jesse S Lewis
- College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University, Mesa, AZ 85212, United States
| | - Jeffrey Haight
- School of Life Science, Arizona State University, 1151 S. Forest Ave, Tempe, AZ 85281, Canada
| | - Zhu Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Jarod P Lyon
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - Robin Hale
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Ian MacGregor-Fors
- Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Niemenkatu 73, FI-15140 Lahti, Finland
| | - Enrique Arbeláez-Cortés
- Grupo de Estudios en Biodiversidad, Escuela de Biología, Universidad Industrial de Santander, Ciudad Universitaria Carrera 27 Calle 9, Bucaramanga, Santander, Colombia
| | - Felipe A Estela
- Departamento de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana-Cali, Cl. 18 #118-250, Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
| | - Camilo E Sánchez-Sarria
- Departamento de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana-Cali, Cl. 18 #118-250, Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
| | - Michelle García-Arroyo
- Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Niemenkatu 73, FI-15140 Lahti, Finland
| | - Giann K Aguirre-Samboní
- Departamento de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana-Cali, Cl. 18 #118-250, Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
| | - Juan C Franco Morales
- Facultad de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Autónoma de Occidente, Calle 25, Vía Cali - Puerto Tejada 115-85 Km 2, Jamundí, Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
| | - Shahar Malamud
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, P.O. Box 39040, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel
| | - Tal Gavriel
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, P.O. Box 39040, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel
| | - Yehezkel Buba
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, P.O. Box 39040, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel
| | - Shira Salingré
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, P.O. Box 39040, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel
| | - Mai Lazarus
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, P.O. Box 39040, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel
| | - Ruthy Yahel
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Yigael Ben Ari
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Eyal Miller
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Rotem Sade
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Guy Lavian
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Ziv Birman
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Manor Gury
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Harel Baz
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Ilia Baskin
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Alon Penn
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Amit Dolev
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Ogen Licht
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Tabi Karkom
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Sharon Davidzon
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Avi Berkovitch
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Ofer Yaakov
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem 95463, Israel
| | - Raoul Manenti
- Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, via Celoria 26, I-20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Emiliano Mori
- Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca sugli Ecosistemi Terrestri, Via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Italy
| | - Gentile Francesco Ficetola
- Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, via Celoria 26, I-20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Enrico Lunghi
- Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beichen West Road 1, 100101 Beijing, China
| | - David March
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Brendan J Godley
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Cecilia Martin
- Red Sea Research Center and Computational Bioscience Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 23955 Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Steven F Mihaly
- Ocean Networks Canada, University of Victoria Queenswood Campus, 2474 Arbutus Road, Victoria, BC V8N 1V8, Canada
| | - David R Barclay
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford St., Halifax, Nova Scotia B4H 4R2, Canada
| | - Dugald J M Thomson
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford St., Halifax, Nova Scotia B4H 4R2, Canada
| | - Richard Dewey
- Ocean Networks Canada, University of Victoria Queenswood Campus, 2474 Arbutus Road, Victoria, BC V8N 1V8, Canada
| | - Jeannette Bedard
- Ocean Networks Canada, University of Victoria Queenswood Campus, 2474 Arbutus Road, Victoria, BC V8N 1V8, Canada
| | - Aroha Miller
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Amber Dearden
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Jennifer Chapman
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Lauren Dares
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Laura Borden
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Donna Gibbs
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Jessica Schultz
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Nikita Sergeenko
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Fiona Francis
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Amanda Weltman
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Nicolas Moity
- Charles Darwin Research Station, Charles Darwin Foundation, Av. Charles Darwin, Santa Cruz, Galapagos, Ecuador
| | - Jorge Ramírez-González
- Charles Darwin Research Station, Charles Darwin Foundation, Av. Charles Darwin, Santa Cruz, Galapagos, Ecuador
| | - Gonzalo Mucientes
- Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas (IIM-CSIC), Eduardo Cabello 6, 36208 Vigo, Spain
| | | | - Itai Namir
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, P.O. Box 39040, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel
| | - Avi Bar-Massada
- Department of Biology and Environment, University of Haifa at Oranim, 36006 Tivon, Israel
| | - Ron Chen
- Hamaarag, The Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, P.O. Box 39040, Tel Aviv 6139001, Israel
| | - Shmulik Yedvab
- The Mammal Center, Society for the Protection of Nature in Israel, Israel
| | - Thomas A Okey
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, PO Box 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
| | - Steffen Oppel
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | | | - Samuel Bakari
- BirdLife International, Africa Partnership Secretariat, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Solomon Mengistu
- Ethiopia Wildlife and Natural History Society, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia/Dilla University, Natural and Computational Sciences, Department of Biology, P.O. Box, 419, Dilla, Ethiopia
| | | | - Alazar Ruffo
- Faculty of Natural Science, Department of Zoological Science, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | | | - Mengistu Wondafrash
- Ethiopia Wildlife and Natural History Society, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia/Dilla University, Natural and Computational Sciences, Department of Biology, P.O. Box, 419, Dilla, Ethiopia
| | | | - Charles Palmer
- Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK
| | - Lorenzo Sileci
- Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK
| | - Patrick T Rex
- Dept of Biological Sciences, California State University Long Beach, Long Beach, CA, USA
| | - Christopher G Lowe
- Dept of Biological Sciences, California State University Long Beach, Long Beach, CA, USA
| | - Francesc Peters
- Institute of Marine Sciences (CSIC), Pg. Marítim de la Barceloneta 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Catalunya, Spain
| | - Matthew K Pine
- Department of Biology, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Craig A Radford
- Institute of Marine Science, University of Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Louise Wilson
- Institute of Marine Science, University of Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Lauren McWhinnie
- School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Alessia Scuderi
- Marine and Environmental Science Faculty, University of Cádiz, Cádiz, Spain
| | - Andrew G Jeffs
- Institute of Marine Science, University of Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Kathleen L Prudic
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Maxim Larrivée
- Montreal Space for Life, Insectarium, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | | | - Rodrigo Solis
- Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
| | - Rebecca A Hutchinson
- School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
| | - Nuno Queiroz
- Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos/Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, Campus Agrário de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-668 Vairão, Portugal
| | - Miguel A Furtado
- Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos/Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, Campus Agrário de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-668 Vairão, Portugal
| | - David W Sims
- Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
| | - Emily Southall
- Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
| | | | | | - Ku'ulei S Rodgers
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Kāne'ohe, HI 96744, USA
| | - Sarah J L Severino
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Kāne'ohe, HI 96744, USA
| | - Andrew T Graham
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Kāne'ohe, HI 96744, USA
| | - Matthew P Stefanak
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Kāne'ohe, HI 96744, USA
| | - Elizabeth M P Madin
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Kāne'ohe, HI 96744, USA
| | - Peter G Ryan
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Kyle Maclean
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Eleanor A Weideman
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Çağan H Şekercioğlu
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, 257 S 1400 E, Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0840, USA
| | - Kyle D Kittelberger
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, 257 S 1400 E, Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0840, USA
| | - Josip Kusak
- Department of Veterinary Biology, Veterinary Faculty, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Jeffrey A Seminoff
- NOAA-National Marine Fisheries Service, 8901 La Jolla Shores Dr., La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Megan E Hanna
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 8622 Kennel Way, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Takahiro Shimada
- Red Sea Research Centre (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mark G Meekan
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre (M096), University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia
| | - Martin K S Smith
- Rondevlei Scientific Services, South African National Parks, Garden Route 6570, South Africa
| | - Mohlamatsane M Mokhatla
- Rondevlei Scientific Services, South African National Parks, Garden Route 6570, South Africa
| | - Malcolm C K Soh
- National Parks Board, 1 Cluny Rd, Singapore Botanic Gardens, Singapore 259569, Singapore
| | - Roanna Y T Pang
- National Parks Board, 1 Cluny Rd, Singapore Botanic Gardens, Singapore 259569, Singapore
| | - Breyl X K Ng
- National Parks Board, 1 Cluny Rd, Singapore Botanic Gardens, Singapore 259569, Singapore
| | - Benjamin P Y-H Lee
- National Parks Board, 1 Cluny Rd, Singapore Botanic Gardens, Singapore 259569, Singapore
| | - Adrian H B Loo
- National Parks Board, 1 Cluny Rd, Singapore Botanic Gardens, Singapore 259569, Singapore
| | - Kenneth B H Er
- National Parks Board, 1 Cluny Rd, Singapore Botanic Gardens, Singapore 259569, Singapore
| | - Gabriel B G Souza
- Postgraduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Av. Pedro Calmon, 550 Cidade Universitária da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, RJ 21941-901, Brazil
| | | | - Joseph S Curtis
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - Meaghan E Faletti
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - Jonathan A Peake
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - Michael J Schram
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - Kara R Wall
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - Carina Terry
- Biology Department, Boston University, 881 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, United States
| | - Matt Rothendler
- Biology Department, Boston University, 881 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, United States
| | - Lucy Zipf
- Biology Department, Boston University, 881 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, United States
| | - Juan Sebastián Ulloa
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Paseo Bolívar 16-20, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
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- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Paseo Bolívar 16-20, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
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- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Paseo Bolívar 16-20, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
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- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Paseo Bolívar 16-20, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
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- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Paseo Bolívar 16-20, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
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- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Paseo Bolívar 16-20, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
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- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Paseo Bolívar 16-20, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
| | - Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Avenida Paseo Bolívar 16-20, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
| | - Reut Vardi
- The Albert Katz International School for Desert Studies, Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
| | - Víctor Vázquez
- Department of Research and Development, Coccosphere Environmental Analysis, C/Cruz 39, 29120 Alhaurín el Grande, Málaga, Spain
| | - Christian Requena-Mesa
- Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Straße 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Miyako H Warrington
- Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba, 317 Sinnott Bldg., 70 Dysart Rd., Winnipeg, MB R3T 2M6, Canada
| | - Michelle E Taylor
- School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey LL59 5AB, UK
| | - Lucy C Woodall
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Zoology Research and Administration Building, 11a Mansfield Road, Oxford OX1 3SZ, United Kingdom
| | - Paris V Stefanoudis
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Zoology Research and Administration Building, 11a Mansfield Road, Oxford OX1 3SZ, United Kingdom
| | - Xiangliang Zhang
- Computational Biosciences Research Center (CBRC), Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 23955 Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Qiang Yang
- Computational Biosciences Research Center (CBRC), Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 23955 Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Yuval Zukerman
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
| | - Zehava Sigal
- Science Division, Israel Nature and Parks Authority, Am V'Olamo 3, 95463 Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Amir Ayali
- School of Zoology, Tel aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997802, Israel
| | - Eric E G Clua
- PSL Research University CRIOBE USR3278 EPHE-CNRS-UPVD BP1013, 98729 Papetoai, French Polynesia
| | - Pamela Carzon
- PSL Research University CRIOBE USR3278 EPHE-CNRS-UPVD BP1013, 98729 Papetoai, French Polynesia
| | - Clementine Seguine
- PSL Research University CRIOBE USR3278 EPHE-CNRS-UPVD BP1013, 98729 Papetoai, French Polynesia
| | - Andrea Corradini
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, via Calepina, 14, 38122 Trento, Italy
| | | | - Catherine M Foley
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Kāne'ohe, HI 96744, USA
| | - Catherine Alexandra Gagnon
- Département de Biologie, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 2325 Rue de l'Université, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
| | | | - Celene B Milanes
- Civil and Environmental Department, Universidad de La Costa, Cl. 58 #55 - 66, Barranquilla, Atlántico, Colombia
| | - Camilo M Botero
- School of Law, Universidad Sergio Arboleda, Santa Marta, Colombia
| | - Yunior R Velázquez
- Multidisciplinary Studies Center of Coastal Zone, Universidad de Oriente, Avenida Patricio Lumumba S/N, Santiago de Cuba 90500, Cuba
| | - Nataliya A Milchakova
- Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas, Russian Academian Science, Sevastopol 299011, Russia
| | - Simon A Morley
- British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire CB30ET, UK
| | - Stephanie M Martin
- Government of Tristan da Cunha, Jamestown STHL 1ZZ, Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha
| | - Veronica Nanni
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell'Ambiente e della Vita, Università degli Studi di Genova, Corso Europa 26, 16132 Genova, Italy
| | - Tanya Otero
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver, BC V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Julia Wakeling
- Ocean Wise Conservation Association, 845 Avison Way, Vancouver, BC V6B 3X8, Canada
| | - Sarah Abarro
- WWF-Canada, 60 St Jacques St, Montreal, Quebec H2Y 1L5, Canada
| | - Cyril Piou
- CIRAD, UMR CBGP, INRAE, IRD, Montpellier SupAgro, Univ. Montpellier, F-34398 Montpellier, France
| | - Ana F L Sobral
- Okeanos Research Centre of the University of the Azores, Rua Prof. Dr. Frederico Machado, 9901-862 Horta, Azores, Portugal
| | - Eulogio H Soto
- Centro de Observación Marino para Estudios de Riesgos del Ambiente Costero (COSTAR), Facultad de Ciencias del Mar y de Recursos Naturales, Universidad de Valparaíso, Viña del Mar, Chile
| | - Emily G Weigel
- School of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA
| | - Alejandro Bernal-Ibáñez
- MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Agência Regional para o Desenvolvimento da Investigação Tecnologia e Inovação, Funchal, Portugal
| | - Ignacio Gestoso
- MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Agência Regional para o Desenvolvimento da Investigação Tecnologia e Inovação, Funchal, Portugal
| | - Eva Cacabelos
- MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Agência Regional para o Desenvolvimento da Investigação Tecnologia e Inovação, Funchal, Portugal
| | - Francesca Cagnacci
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, via Mach 1, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | - Reny P Devassy
- Red Sea Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 23955 Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Matthias-Claudio Loretto
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Am Obstberg 1, 78315 Radolfzell, Germany
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia
| | - Christian Rutz
- Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, Sir Harold Mitchell Building, St Andrews KY16 9TH, UK
| | - Carlos M Duarte
- Red Sea Research Center and Computational Bioscience Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 23955 Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
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Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lan Q, Landires I, Lansingh VC, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Lauriola P, Lee PH, Lee SWH, Leigh J, Leonardi M, Leung J, Levi M, Lewycka S, Li B, Li MC, Li S, Lim LL, Lim SS, Liu X, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Maddison R, Mahasha PW, Mahdavi MM, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martinez G, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Mason-Jones AJ, Masoumi SZ, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, McGrath JJ, Mehndiratta MM, Mehri F, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Moazen B, Mohammad DK, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mueller UO, Muriithi MK, Murray CJL, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Nangia V, Nayak VC, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Netsere HB, Nguefack-Tsague G, Nguyen DN, Nguyen HLT, Nie J, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Nuñez-Samudio V, Ogbo FA, Oghenetega OB, Oh IH, Oladnabi M, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omar Bali A, Omer MO, Onwujekwe OE, Ortiz A, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Panelo CIA, Park EK, Patten SB, Peden AE, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira J, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Phillips MR, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Postma MJ, Pottoo FH, Pourjafar H, Pourshams A, Prada SI, Pupillo E, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee MH, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiee A, Raggi A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Ramezanzadeh K, Ranabhat CL, Rao SJ, Rashedi V, Rastogi P, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roth GA, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Rwegerera GM, Sabour S, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salem MR, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sarrafzadegan N, Sarveazad A, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saxena D, Saxena S, Schiavolin S, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shahabi S, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shakiba S, Shamsi M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Shetty BSK, Shi P, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shuval K, Siabani S, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Simonetti B, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinke AH, Skryabin VY, Slater H, Smith EUR, Sobhiyeh MR, Sobngwi E, Soheili A, Somefun OD, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Stein DJ, Stokes MA, Sudaryanto A, Sultan I, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Taherkhani A, Tamiru AT, Tareque MI, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Thomas N, Titova MV, Tonelli M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Travillian RS, Tsai AC, Tsatsakis A, Tudor Car L, Uddin R, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vos T, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Wu AM, Wu C, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yeshitila YG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yousefinezhadi T, Yu C, Yu Y, Yuce D, Zaidi SS, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zarafshan H, Zarei A, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao XJG, Zhu C, Patton GC, Viner RM. Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2021; 398:1593-1618. [PMID: 34755628 PMCID: PMC8576274 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01546-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2021] [Revised: 05/07/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). FINDINGS In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. INTERPRETATION Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Amoah B, McCann RS, Kabaghe AN, Mburu M, Chipeta MG, Moraga P, Gowelo S, Tizifa T, van den Berg H, Mzilahowa T, Takken W, van Vugt M, Phiri KS, Diggle PJ, Terlouw DJ, Giorgi E. Identifying Plasmodium falciparum transmission patterns through parasite prevalence and entomological inoculation rate. eLife 2021; 10:65682. [PMID: 34672946 PMCID: PMC8530514 DOI: 10.7554/elife.65682] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2020] [Accepted: 09/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Monitoring malaria transmission is a critical component of efforts to achieve targets for elimination and eradication. Two commonly monitored metrics of transmission intensity are parasite prevalence (PR) and the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Comparing the spatial and temporal variations in the PR and EIR of a given geographical region and modelling the relationship between the two metrics may provide a fuller picture of the malaria epidemiology of the region to inform control activities. Methods Using geostatistical methods, we compare the spatial and temporal patterns of Plasmodium falciparum EIR and PR using data collected over 38 months in a rural area of Malawi. We then quantify the relationship between EIR and PR by using empirical and mechanistic statistical models. Results Hotspots identified through the EIR and PR partly overlapped during high transmission seasons but not during low transmission seasons. The estimated relationship showed a 1-month delayed effect of EIR on PR such that at lower levels of EIR, increases in EIR are associated with rapid rise in PR, whereas at higher levels of EIR, changes in EIR do not translate into notable changes in PR. Conclusions Our study emphasises the need for integrated malaria control strategies that combine vector and human host managements monitored by both entomological and parasitaemia indices. Funding This work was supported by Stichting Dioraphte grant number 13050800.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Amoah
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics (CHICAS), Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Robert S McCann
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.,Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi.,Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, United States
| | - Alinune N Kabaghe
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi.,Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Monicah Mburu
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.,Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Michael G Chipeta
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi.,Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Blantyre, Malawi.,Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Paula Moraga
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics (CHICAS), Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.,Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Steven Gowelo
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.,Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Tinashe Tizifa
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi.,Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Henk van den Berg
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Themba Mzilahowa
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Willem Takken
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Michele van Vugt
- Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Kamija S Phiri
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Peter J Diggle
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics (CHICAS), Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Dianne J Terlouw
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi.,Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Blantyre, Malawi.,Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Emanuele Giorgi
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics (CHICAS), Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
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Paulson KR, Kamath AM, Alam T, Bienhoff K, Abady GG, Abbas J, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abd-Elsalam SM, Abdoli A, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abushouk AI, Adamu AL, Adebayo OM, Adegbosin AE, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adeyinka DA, Adsuar JC, Afshari K, Aghaali M, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Aji B, Akalu Y, Akinyemi OO, Aklilu A, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali T, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alumran AK, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Ameyaw EK, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aripov T, Ärnlöv J, Artanti KD, Arzani A, Asaad M, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Athari SS, Athari SM, Atnafu DD, Atreya A, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Awan AT, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azarian G, Azene ZN, B DB, Babaee E, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Banach M, Banik PC, Barker-Collo SL, Barqawi HJ, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beghi E, Beghi M, Bell ML, Bendak S, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bezabih YM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Bragazzi NL, Breusov AV, Brunoni AR, Burkart K, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Camargos P, Cámera LA, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Cerin E, Chang JC, Chanie WF, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Chen S, Cho DY, Choi JYJ, Chu DT, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Conde J, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dachew BA, Dahlawi SMA, Dai H, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darmstadt GL, Das JK, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis AC, Davletov K, De la Hoz FP, De Leo D, Deeba F, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Desalew A, Deuba K, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhingra S, Dhungana GP, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dorostkar F, Doshmangir L, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Eagan AW, Edinur HA, Efendi F, Eftekharzadeh S, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elgendy IY, El-Jaafary SI, Emami A, Enany S, Eyawo O, Ezzikouri S, Faris PS, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fauk NK, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Ferede TY, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Freitas M, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gaidhane S, Gaihre S, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gaspar Fonseca M, Gebremedhin KB, Getacher L, Ghashghaee A, Gholamian A, Gilani SA, Gill TK, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Godinho MA, Goel A, Golechha M, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Goudarzi H, Grivna M, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guimarães RA, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haider MR, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Hankey GJ, Hargono A, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasan SS, Hassan A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Havmoeller RJ, Hayat K, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Hole MK, Holla R, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Huang J, Humayun A, Hwang BF, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inamdar S, Inbaraj LR, Iqbal K, Iqbal U, Islam MM, Islam SMS, Iso H, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jagnoor J, Jain V, Janodia MD, Javaheri T, Javanmardi F, Jayaram S, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Ji JS, John O, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kamyari N, Kanchan T, Kapoor N, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karimi SE, Kassahun G, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Kemmer L, Khalid N, Khalilov R, Khammarnia M, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan M, Khan MN, Khang YH, Khatab K, Khater AM, Khater MM, Khayamzadeh M, Khosravi A, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissoon N, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kulkarni V, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lalloo R, Lami FH, Landires I, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Lauriola P, Lee PH, Lee SWH, Lee YH, Leigh J, Leonardi M, Lewycka S, Li B, Li S, Liang J, Lim LL, Limenih MA, Lin RT, Liu X, Lodha R, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Mackay MT, Madhava Kunjathur S, Magnani FG, Mahadeshwara Prasad DR, Maheri M, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Maled V, Maleki A, Maleki S, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martinez G, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Maulik PK, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, Medina-Solís CE, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mini GK, Miri M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Moazen B, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohajer B, Mohamad O, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi SM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Moore CE, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Mosser JF, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mustafa G, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nagaraju SP, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Naimzada MD, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Nascimento BR, Naveed M, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nena E, Nepal S, Netsere HB, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CTY, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nigatu YT, Nigussie SN, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Noor NM, Noubiap JJ, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nwatah VE, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Ogbo FA, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omar Bali A, Onwujekwe OE, Ortiz A, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pakshir K, Pal PK, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Pardo-Montaño AM, Park EK, Patel SK, Patton GC, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peden AE, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira J, Pérez-Gómez J, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Pilgrim T, Pinheiro M, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Platts-Mills JA, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Prada SI, Prakash S, Pupillo E, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiee A, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Rahimzadeh S, Rahman MHU, Rahmani AM, Ramezanzadeh K, Rana J, Ranabhat CL, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rastogi P, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawasia WF, Rawassizadeh R, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Riahi SM, Ribeiro D, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Ryan PM, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Salahshoor MR, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sarker AR, Sarrafzadegan N, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saxena S, Saya GK, Saylan M, Schiavolin S, Schlaich MP, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shahabi S, Shahbaz M, Shaheen AA, Shahid I, Shaikh MA, Shakiba S, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shuval K, Siddiqi TJ, Sidemo NB, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Silverberg JIS, Simonetti B, Singh BB, Singh JA, Singhal D, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Sobaih BH, Sobhiyeh MR, Soltani S, Soriano JB, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Steiropoulos P, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sulo G, Swope CB, Sykes BL, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadesse EG, Taherkhani A, Tamiru AT, Tareque MI, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Tolani MA, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tripathy JP, Tsapparellas G, Tsatsakis A, Tudor Car L, Uddin R, Ullah A, Umeokonkwo CD, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Usman MS, Vacante M, Vaezi M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Verma M, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vu GT, Wado YD, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilner LB, Wiysonge CS, Wu AM, Wu C, Xie Y, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yandrapalli S, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yousefinezhadi T, Yu C, Yusuf SS, Zaidi SS, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao XJG, Ziapour A, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Wang H, Kassebaum NJ. Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2021; 398:870-905. [PMID: 34416195 PMCID: PMC8429803 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01207-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 183] [Impact Index Per Article: 61.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2021] [Revised: 05/25/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. METHODS We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. FINDINGS Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. INTERPRETATION Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Al-Salem W, Moraga P, Ghazi H, Madad S, Hotez PJ. The emergence and transmission of COVID-19 in European countries, 2019-2020: a comprehensive review of timelines, cases and containment. Int Health 2021; 13:383-398. [PMID: 34333650 PMCID: PMC8385807 DOI: 10.1093/inthealth/ihab037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2020] [Revised: 03/14/2021] [Accepted: 07/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
When it emerged in late 2019, COVID-19 was carried via travelers to Germany, France and Italy, where freedom of movement accelerated its transmission throughout Europe. However, effective non-pharmaceutical interventions introduced by European governments led to containment of the rapid increase in cases within European nations. Electronic searches were performed to obtain the number of confirmed cases, incident rates and non-pharmaceutical government measures for each European country. The spread and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions throughout Europe were assessed and visualized. Specifically, heatmaps were used to represent the number of confirmed cases and incident rates for each of the countries over time. In addition, maps were created showing the number of confirmed cases and incident rates in Europe on three different dates (15 March, 15 April and 15 May 2020), which allowed us to assess the geographic and temporal patterns of the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Waleed Al-Salem
- Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Paula Moraga
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Hani Ghazi
- School of Medicine, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Syra Madad
- Special Pathogens Program, NYC Health, New York, USA
- Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, New York, USA
| | - Peter J Hotez
- Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, Texas Children's Hospital, Houston, Texas, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
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Galles NC, Liu PY, Updike RL, Fullman N, Nguyen J, Rolfe S, Sbarra AN, Schipp MF, Marks A, Abady GG, Abbas KM, Abbasi SW, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdoli A, Abolhassani H, Abosetugn AE, Adabi M, Adamu AA, Adetokunboh OO, Adnani QES, Advani SM, Afzal S, Aghamir SMK, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Ahmed Salih Y, Akalu Y, Aklilu A, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Albano L, Alemayehu Y, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Alhassan RK, Ali L, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir S, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amu H, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Ansar A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonazzo IC, Antony B, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Artanti KD, Arulappan J, Awan AT, Awoke MA, Ayza MA, Azarian G, Azzam AY, B DB, Babar ZUD, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Bante SA, Bärnighausen TW, Barqawi HJ, Barrow A, Bassat Q, Bayarmagnai N, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bekuma TT, Belay HG, Belgaumi UI, Bhagavathula AS, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharyya K, Bibi S, Bijani A, Biondi A, Boloor A, Braithwaite D, Buonsenso D, Butt ZA, Camargos P, Carreras G, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Chakinala RC, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chowdhury FR, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Chung SC, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dadras O, Dagnew AB, Dagnew B, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, De Neve JW, Derbew Molla M, Derseh BT, Desai R, Desta AA, Dhamnetiya D, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Dorostkar F, Edem B, Edinur HA, Eftekharzadeh S, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, Elhadi M, El-Jaafary SI, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Erkhembayar R, Esezobor CI, Eskandarieh S, Ezeonwumelu IJ, Ezzikouri S, Fares J, Faris PS, Feleke BE, Ferede TY, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrara P, Filip I, Fischer F, Francis MR, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Gaidhane S, Gallus S, Garg T, Geberemariyam BS, Gebre T, Gebregiorgis BG, Gebremedhin KB, Gebremichael B, Gessner BD, Ghadiri K, Ghafourifard M, Ghashghaee A, Gilani SA, Glăvan IR, Glushkova EV, Golechha M, Gonfa KB, Gopalani SV, Goudarzi H, Gubari MIM, Guo Y, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gutiérrez RA, Haeuser E, Halwani R, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Haque S, Harapan H, Hargono A, Hashi A, Hassan S, Hassanein MH, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hay SI, Hayat K, Hegazy MI, Heidari G, Hezam K, Holla R, Hoque ME, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Househ M, Hsieh VCR, Huang J, Humayun A, Hussain R, Hussein NR, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inamdar S, Iqbal U, Irham LM, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Ismail NE, Itumalla R, Jha RP, Joukar F, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalhor R, Kamal Z, Kamande SM, Kandel H, Karch A, Kassahun G, Kassebaum NJ, Katoto PDMC, Kelkay B, Kengne AP, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan J, Khan M, Khan MAB, Khang YH, Khoja AT, Khubchandani J, Kim GR, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Korshunov VA, Kosen S, Kuate Defo B, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kwarteng A, La Vecchia C, Lami FH, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Lee H, Lee YY, Levi M, Lewycka S, Li S, Liu X, Lobo SW, Lopukhov PD, Lozano R, Lutzky Saute R, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Makki A, Malik AA, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Martins-Melo FR, Matthews PC, Medina JRC, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AG, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Milne GJ, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei HR, Misra S, Mithra P, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohamed TA, Mohammad KA, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed A, Mohammed S, Mohapatra A, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moni MA, Montasir AA, Moore CE, Moradi G, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Mueller UO, Munro SB, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Negoi I, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen TH, Nikbakhsh R, Ningrum DNA, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nwatah VE, Oancea B, Ochir C, Ogbo FA, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Onwujekwe OE, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Park EC, Pashazadeh Kan F, Pathak M, Paudel R, Pawar S, Pereira J, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Pinheiro M, Pirestani M, Podder V, Polibin RV, Pollok RCG, Postma MJ, Pottoo FH, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Rahmawaty S, Rajesh A, Ramshaw RE, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezai MS, Rios-Blancas M, Rogowski ELB, Ronfani L, Rwegerera GM, Saad AM, Sabour S, Saddik B, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salam N, Salimzadeh H, Samaei M, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Saxena D, Saxena S, Seidu AA, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Shamsizadeh M, Shetty PH, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Sidemo NB, Singh A, Singh JA, Sinha S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soheili A, Tadesse EG, Tamiru AT, Tan KK, Tekalegn Y, Temsah MH, Thakur B, Thapar R, Thavamani A, Tobe-Gai R, Tohidinik HR, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tripathi M, Tsegaye B, Tsegaye GW, Ullah A, Ullah S, Ullah S, Unim B, Vacante M, Velazquez DZ, Vo B, Vollmer S, Vu GT, Vu LG, Waheed Y, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Yiğit V, Yirdaw BW, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Yuce D, Yunusa I, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zewdie DT, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zumla A, Murray CJL, Lim SS, Mosser JF. Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1. Lancet 2021; 398:503-521. [PMID: 34273291 PMCID: PMC8358924 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00984-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2021] [Revised: 04/16/2021] [Accepted: 04/22/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. METHODS For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. FINDINGS By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. INTERPRETATION After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Sartorius B, VanderHeide JD, Yang M, Goosmann EA, Hon J, Haeuser E, Cork MA, Perkins S, Jahagirdar D, Schaeffer LE, Serfes AL, LeGrand KE, Abbastabar H, Abebo ZH, Abosetugn AE, Abu-Gharbieh E, Accrombessi MMK, Adebayo OM, Adegbosin AE, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adeyinka DA, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Akalu Y, Akinyemi OO, Akinyemi RO, Aklilu A, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam N, Alamneh AA, Alanzi TM, Alemu BW, Alhassan RK, Ali T, Alipour V, Amini S, Ancuceanu R, Ansari F, Anteneh ZA, Anvari D, Anwer R, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Asemahagn MA, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Asmare WN, Atnafu DD, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Ausloos M, Awedew AF, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Ayza MA, Azari S, Azene ZN, Babar ZUD, Baig AA, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Bayati M, Bedi N, Bekuma TT, Bezabhe WMM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Bikbov B, Birhan TA, Bitew ZW, Bockarie MJ, Boloor A, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Briko AN, Briko NI, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chowdhury MAK, Chu DT, Cook AJ, Cormier NM, Cowden RG, Culquichicon C, Dagnew B, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Daoud F, Daryani A, das Neves J, Davis Weaver N, Derbew Molla M, Deribe K, Desta AA, Deuba K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Doku PN, Dubljanin E, Duko B, Eagan AW, Earl L, Eaton JW, Effiong A, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elayedath R, El-Jaafary SI, Elsharkawy A, Eskandarieh S, Eyawo O, Ezzikouri S, Fasanmi AO, Fasil A, Fauk NK, Feigin VL, Ferede TY, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Geberemariyam BS, Gebregiorgis BG, Gebremichael B, Gesesew HA, Getacher L, Ghadiri K, Ghashghaee A, Gilani SA, Ginindza TG, Glagn M, Golechha M, Gona PN, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guled RA, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Handiso DW, Hargono A, Hashi A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hayat K, Herteliu C, Hidru HDD, Holla R, Hosgood HD, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irvani SSN, Iwu CCD, Iwu CJ, Iyamu IO, Jain V, Jakovljevic M, Jalilian F, Jha RP, Johnson KB, Joshua V, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamath A, Kamyari N, Kanchan T, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karimi SE, Kasa AS, Kassahun G, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Keiyoro PN, Kelkay B, Khalid N, Khan G, Khan J, Khan MN, Khatab K, Khazaei S, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kochhar S, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kugbey N, Kulkarni V, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, Kuupiel D, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Lam JO, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lazarus JV, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lee PH, Leshargie CT, Li B, Liu X, Lopukhov PD, M. Amin HI, Madi D, Mahasha PW, Majeed A, Maleki A, Maleki S, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Mayala BK, Meharie BG, Meheretu HAA, Meles HG, Melku M, Mendoza W, Mengesha EW, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mirica A, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Mohamad O, Mohammad Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed JA, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mokonnon TM, Molokhia M, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Mosser JF, Munro SB, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naveed M, Nayak VC, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Nepal S, Netsere HB, Ngalesoni FN, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nigatu YT, Nigussie SN, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Ogbo FA, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omer MO, Omonisi AEE, Onwujekwe OE, Orisakwe OE, Otstavnov N, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pana A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Patel UK, Pathak M, Patton GC, Pawar S, Peprah EK, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Pottoo FH, Pourjafar H, Pribadi DRA, Quazi Syed Z, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahman MHU, Rahmani AM, Ram P, Rana J, Ranabhat CL, Rao S, Rao SJ, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Renjith V, Reta MA, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Ribeiro AI, Ross JM, Rumisha SF, Sagar R, Sahu M, Sajadi SM, Salem MR, Samy AM, Sathian B, Schutte AE, Seidu AA, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shahbaz M, Shaikh MA, Shaka MF, Sheikh A, Shibuya K, Shin JI, Shivakumar KM, Sidemo NB, Singh JA, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soheili A, Soltani S, Somefun OD, Sorrie MB, Spurlock EE, Sufiyan MB, Taddele BW, Tadesse EG, Tamir Z, Tamiru AT, Tanser FC, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalegn Y, Tesfay FH, Tessema B, Tessema ZT, Thakur B, Tolani MA, Topor-Madry R, Torrado M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tsai AC, Tsegaye GW, Ullah I, Ullah S, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Vardavas C, Violante FS, Vo B, Wado YD, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang Y, Ward P, Werdecker A, Wickramasinghe ND, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wondmeneh TG, Yamada T, Yaya S, Yeshaw Y, Yeshitila YG, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yosef T, Yusefzadeh H, Zaidi SS, Zaki L, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zewdie DT, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Ziapour A, Hay SI, Dwyer-Lindgren L. Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study. Lancet HIV 2021; 8:e363-e375. [PMID: 34087097 PMCID: PMC8187986 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(21)00051-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2020] [Revised: 03/05/2021] [Accepted: 03/09/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. FINDINGS The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. INTERPRETATION Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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McCann RS, Kabaghe AN, Moraga P, Gowelo S, Mburu MM, Tizifa T, Chipeta MG, Nkhono W, Di Pasquale A, Maire N, Manda-Taylor L, Mzilahowa T, van den Berg H, Diggle PJ, Terlouw DJ, Takken W, van Vugt M, Phiri KS. The effect of community-driven larval source management and house improvement on malaria transmission when added to the standard malaria control strategies in Malawi: a cluster-randomized controlled trial. Malar J 2021; 20:232. [PMID: 34022912 PMCID: PMC8140568 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-021-03769-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2021] [Accepted: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Current standard interventions are not universally sufficient for malaria elimination. The effects of community-based house improvement (HI) and larval source management (LSM) as supplementary interventions to the Malawi National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) interventions were assessed in the context of an intensive community engagement programme. METHODS The study was a two-by-two factorial, cluster-randomized controlled trial in Malawi. Village clusters were randomly assigned to four arms: a control arm; HI; LSM; and HI + LSM. Malawi NMCP interventions and community engagement were used in all arms. Household-level, cross-sectional surveys were conducted on a rolling, 2-monthly basis to measure parasitological and entomological outcomes over 3 years, beginning with one baseline year. The primary outcome was the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Secondary outcomes included mosquito density, Plasmodium falciparum prevalence, and haemoglobin levels. All outcomes were assessed based on intention to treat, and comparisons between trial arms were conducted at both cluster and household level. RESULTS Eighteen clusters derived from 53 villages with 4558 households and 20,013 people were randomly assigned to the four trial arms. The mean nightly EIR fell from 0.010 infectious bites per person (95% CI 0.006-0.015) in the baseline year to 0.001 (0.000, 0.003) in the last year of the trial. Over the full trial period, the EIR did not differ between the four trial arms (p = 0.33). Similar results were observed for the other outcomes: mosquito density and P. falciparum prevalence decreased over 3 years of sampling, while haemoglobin levels increased; and there were minimal differences between the trial arms during the trial period. CONCLUSIONS In the context of high insecticide-treated bed net use, neither community-based HI, LSM, nor HI + LSM contributed to further reductions in malaria transmission or prevalence beyond the reductions observed over two years across all four trial arms. This was the first trial, as far as the authors are aware, to test the potential complementary impact of LSM and/or HI beyond levels achieved by standard interventions. The unexpectedly low EIR values following intervention implementation indicated a promising reduction in malaria transmission for the area, but also limited the usefulness of this outcome for measuring differences in malaria transmission among the trial arms. Trial registration PACTR, PACTR201604001501493, Registered 3 March 2016, https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/ .
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert S McCann
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, USA
| | - Alinune N Kabaghe
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
- Center for Tropical Medicine & Travel Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Division of Internal Medicine, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Paula Moraga
- CHICAS, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
- Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Steven Gowelo
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Monicah M Mburu
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Tinashe Tizifa
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
- Center for Tropical Medicine & Travel Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Division of Internal Medicine, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Michael G Chipeta
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
- CHICAS, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Program, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - William Nkhono
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Aurelio Di Pasquale
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Nicolas Maire
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Lucinda Manda-Taylor
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Themba Mzilahowa
- MAC Communicable Diseases Action Centre, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Henk van den Berg
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Peter J Diggle
- CHICAS, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - Dianne J Terlouw
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
- Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Program, Blantyre, Malawi
- Clinical Sciences Department, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
| | - Willem Takken
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Michèle van Vugt
- Center for Tropical Medicine & Travel Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Division of Internal Medicine, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Kamija S Phiri
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paula Moraga
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)
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da Silva WJ, Cardoso DT, Morais MHF, Carneiro M, Moraga P, Barbosa DS. Spatiotemporal patterns and integrated approach to prioritize areas for surveillance and control of visceral leishmaniasis in a large metropolitan area in Brazil. Acta Trop 2020; 211:105615. [PMID: 32621931 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105615] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2020] [Revised: 06/17/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease with worldwide distribution. Brazil is the country with the largest number of cases in the Americas, and the state of Minas Gerais presents a high VL-related burden and a high case fatality rate. We aimed to analyse the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of VL occurrence and to identify priority risk areas for surveillance and control in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte-MG, the third largest metropolitan area in Brazil. An ecological study was conducted considering all cases of VL in humans confirmed from 2006 to 2017. The crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyse the distribution patterns of the disease (dispersed, random, or clustered) based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found between incidence rates. It was possible to observe a high concentration of VL cases in the metropolitan core area, with the identification of two high-risk clusters in strictly urban areas, showing an urban association with the disease. Ten municipalities were categorised as high risk for VL occurrence. Our results provide evidence for making decisions in surveillance programs, suggesting the prioritisation of the municipalities with more risk of transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wellington Junior da Silva
- Department of Parasitology, Institute of Biological Sciences, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Diogo Tavares Cardoso
- Department of Parasitology, Institute of Biological Sciences, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Maria Helena Franco Morais
- Belo Horizonte Health Department, Avenida Afonso Pena 2336, 30130-012, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Mariângela Carneiro
- Department of Parasitology, Institute of Biological Sciences, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Paula Moraga
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, North Rd, Claverton Down, BA2 7AY, Bath, United Kingdom
| | - David Soeiro Barbosa
- Department of Parasitology, Institute of Biological Sciences, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of London, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, WC1E 7HT, London, United Kingdom.
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Lozano R, Fullman N, Mumford JE, Knight M, Barthelemy CM, Abbafati C, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdollahi M, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Abosetugn AE, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abu Haimed AK, Abushouk AI, Adabi M, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adelson J, Adetokunboh OO, Adham D, Advani SM, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agasthi P, Aghamir SMK, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Akinyemi RO, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Albertson SB, Alemu YM, Alhassan RK, Ali M, Ali S, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Almadi MAH, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almulhim AM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Amiri F, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aravkin AY, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Asaad M, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Ashbaugh C, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Aynalem GL, Ayza MA, Azari S, Azzopardi PS, B DB, Babaee E, Badiye AD, Bahrami MA, Baig AA, Bakhshaei MH, Bakhtiari A, Bakkannavar SM, Balachandran A, Balassyano S, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Banik PC, Bante AB, Bante SA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Baye BA, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Bekuma TTT, Bell ML, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj P, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Bockarie MJ, Bohlouli S, Bojia HA, Bolla SRR, Boloor A, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Briant PS, Briggs AM, Briko NI, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cámera LA, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Causey K, Cederroth CR, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chandan JS, Chang AY, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Chin KL, Cho DY, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Chu DT, Chung MT, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Comfort H, Compton K, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Cousin E, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darega Gela J, Darwesh AM, Daryani A, Dash AP, Davey G, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, De Neve JW, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Desai R, Dharmaratne SD, Dhungana GP, Dianatinasab M, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dippenaar IN, Do HT, Dorostkar F, Doshmangir L, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Eagan AW, Edvardsson D, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elgendy IY, Elyazar IRF, Eskandari K, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilnejad S, Esteghamati A, Ezekannagha O, Farag T, Farahmand M, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faris PS, Faro A, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Fu W, Fukumoto T, Furtado JM, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gakidou E, Galles NC, Gallus S, Gardner WM, Geberemariyam BS, 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Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020; 396:1250-1284. [PMID: 32861314 PMCID: PMC7562819 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30750-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 251] [Impact Index Per Article: 62.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2019] [Revised: 03/05/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. METHODS Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. FINDINGS Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia. INTERPRETATION The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Zandian H, Zangeneh A, Zastrozhin MS, Zewdie KA, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao JT, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhou M, Ziapour A, Zimsen SRM, Naghavi M, Murray CJL. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020; 396:1204-1222. [PMID: 33069326 PMCID: PMC7567026 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30925-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6299] [Impact Index Per Article: 1574.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2019] [Revised: 02/27/2020] [Accepted: 04/14/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. METHODS GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. FINDINGS Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. INTERPRETATION As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Mullany EC, Musa KI, Muthupandian S, Nabhan AF, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Naimzada MD, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Naserbakht M, Nayak VC, Negoi I, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen M, Nigatu YT, Nikbakhsh R, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Nunez-Samudio V, Oţoiu A, Oancea B, Odell CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okunga EW, Oladnabi M, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omer MO, Ong KL, Onwujekwe OE, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Ostroff SM, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Parry CDH, Pasovic M, Pasupula DK, Patel SK, Pathak M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peden AE, Pennini A, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Phillips MR, Piccinelli C, Pilz TM, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Plass D, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Poznańska A, 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Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saxena S, Schaeffer LE, Schiavolin S, Schlaich MP, Schmidt MI, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Serre ML, Shadid J, Shafaat O, Shahabi S, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhtaheri A, Shibuya K, Shield KD, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shuval K, Siabani S, Sierpinski R, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Simpson KE, Singh JA, Singh P, Skiadaresi E, Skou ST, Skryabin VY, Smith EUR, Soheili A, Soltani S, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soshnikov S, Soyiri IN, Spencer CN, Spotin A, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Straif K, Stubbs JL, Sufiyan MB, Suleria HAR, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sulo G, Sultan I, Szumowski Ł, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tabuchi T, Taherkhani A, Tajdini M, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Tamiru AT, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesema GA, Tessema ZT, Thurston GD, Titova MV, Tohidinik HR, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MRR, Tran BX, Travillian R, Tsatsakis A, Tudor Car L, Tyrovolas S, Uddin R, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Vacante M, Valdez PR, van Donkelaar A, Vasankari TJ, Vasseghian Y, Veisani Y, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vukovic R, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Wang Y, Wang YP, Watson A, Wei J, Wei MYW, Weintraub RG, Weiss J, Werdecker A, West JJ, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Whiteford HA, Wiens KE, Wolfe CDA, Wozniak SS, Wu AM, Wu J, Wulf Hanson S, Xu G, Xu R, Yadgir S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yaminfirooz M, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yeheyis TY, Yilgwan CS, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Younker TP, Yousefi B, Yousefi Z, Yousefinezhadi T, Yousuf AY, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zandian H, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao JT, Zhao XJG, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Ziapour A, Zimsen SRM, Brauer M, Afshin A, Lim SS. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020; 396:1223-1249. [PMID: 33069327 PMCID: PMC7566194 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30752-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3208] [Impact Index Per Article: 802.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2019] [Revised: 03/21/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. METHODS GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older. INTERPRETATION Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Wang H, Abbas KM, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abushouk AI, Adabi M, Adair T, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adekanmbi V, Adeoye AM, Adetokunboh OO, Advani SM, Afshin A, Aghaali M, Agrawal A, Ahmadi K, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam T, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Ali M, Alicandro G, Alijanzadeh M, Alinia C, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Allebeck P, Almadi MAH, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi KA, Alumran AK, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini-Rarani M, Aminorroaya A, Amit AML, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Angus C, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansari I, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Anvari D, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aravkin AY, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Aryal KK, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asgari S, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azarian G, Babaee E, Badiye AD, Bagli E, Bahrami MA, Bakhtiari A, Balassyano S, Banach M, Banik PC, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barzegar A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bazmandegan G, Bedi N, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bertolacci GJ, Bhageerathy R, Bhala N, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bisanzio D, Bisignano C, Biswas RK, Bjørge T, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Bolla SRR, Borzì AM, Borzouei S, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Briko AN, Briko NI, Bumgarner BR, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cai T, Callender CSKH, Cámera LLAA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castelpietra G, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cederroth CR, Cerin E, Chattu VK, Chin KL, Chu DT, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Comfort H, Costa VM, Cowden RG, Cromwell EA, Croneberger AJ, Cunningham M, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, D'Amico E, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Darwesh AM, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Davletov K, De Leo D, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Desai R, Dhungana GP, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dippenaar IN, Djalalinia S, Do HT, Dokova K, Doku DT, Dorostkar F, Doshi CP, Doshmangir L, Doyle KE, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Edvardsson D, Effiong A, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, El-Jaafary SI, Emamian MH, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilzadeh F, Estep K, Farahmand M, Faraj A, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fazaeli AA, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferreira ML, Filip I, Fischer F, Flohr C, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Freitas M, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Furtado JM, Gad MM, Gakidou E, Gallus S, Gebrehiwot AM, Gebremedhin KB, Gething PW, Ghamari F, Ghashghaee A, Gholamian A, Gilani SA, Gitimoghaddam M, Glushkova EV, Gnedovskaya EV, Gopalani SV, Goulart AC, Gugnani HC, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta SS, Haagsma JA, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halvaei I, Hamadeh RR, Hamagharib Abdullah K, Han C, Handiso DW, Hankey GJ, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hay SI, Heibati B, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Henny K, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hole MK, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hoy DG, Hu G, Huda TM, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imani-Nasab MH, Islam M, Iso H, Iwu CJ, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jahagirdar D, Jahanmehr N, Jalali A, Jalilian F, James SL, Janjani H, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kalani H, Kalankesh LR, Kamiab Z, Kanchan T, Kapoor N, Karch A, Karimi SE, Karimi SA, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Keiyoro PN, Keller C, Khader YS, Khalid N, Khan EA, Khan M, Khang YH, Khater AM, Khater MM, Khazaei S, Khazaie H, Khodayari MT, Khubchandani J, Kianipour N, Kim CI, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Komaki H, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kumar V, Kusuma D, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lami FH, Lansky S, Larson SL, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Lazarus JV, Lee PH, Lee SWH, Leever AT, LeGrand KE, Leonardi M, Li S, Lim LL, Lim SS, Linn S, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lopez AD, Lopukhov PD, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lu A, Lunevicius R, Madadin M, Maddison ER, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahasha PW, Mahdavi MM, Malekzadeh R, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Mastrogiacomo CI, Mathur MR, May EA, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehndiratta MM, Mehri F, Mehta KM, Meitei WB, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Michalek IM, Mihretie KM, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Milne GJ, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Misganaw AT, Moazen B, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohamadi E, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Y, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadbeigi A, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed H, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mohseni Bandpei MA, Mokari A, Mokdad AH, Momen NC, Monasta L, Mooney MD, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Joo M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Mosser JF, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mueller UO, Musa KI, Muthupandian S, Nabavizadeh B, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Naik G, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Ndwandwe DE, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen TH, Nigatu YT, Nikbakhsh R, Nikpoor AR, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Noubiap JJ, Nouraei Motlagh S, Nowak C, Oţoiu A, Odell CM, Oh IH, Oladnabi M, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omar Bali A, Ong KL, Onwujekwe OE, Ortiz A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Park J, Pasupula DK, Patel JR, Patel SK, Patton GC, Paulson KR, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pilz TM, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poznańska A, Prada SI, Prakash S, Preotescu L, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Rahman MA, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Ram P, Ranabhat CL, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rashedi V, Rastogi P, Rathi P, Rawal L, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei N, Rezai MS, Rezapour A, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostamian M, Rubagotti E, Rwegerera GM, Sabour S, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari Y, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salahshoor MR, Salama JS, Salamati P, Salem MRR, Salimi Y, Salomon JA, Salz I, Samad Z, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saylan M, Schaeffer LE, Schiavolin S, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Sekerija M, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shabani M, Shahabi S, Shahbaz M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sharafi Z, Sharara F, Sharma R, Shaw DH, Sheikh A, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shrime MG, Shuval K, Siabani S, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva DAS, Simonetti B, Simpson KE, Singh JA, Skiadaresi E, Skryabin VY, Soheili A, Sokhan A, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stubbs JL, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadakamadla SK, Taherkhani A, Tang M, Taveira N, Taylor HJ, Teagle WL, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Teklehaimanot BF, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Titova MV, Tohidinik HR, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tovani-Palone MRR, Traini E, Tran BX, Travillian R, Trias-Llimós S, Truelsen TC, Tudor Car L, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Vacante M, Vakilian A, Valdez PR, Valli A, Vardavas C, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Vasseghian Y, Veisani Y, Venketasubramanian N, Vidale S, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic A, Vukovic R, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walters MK, Wang H, Wang YP, Watson S, Wei J, Weiss J, Weldesamuel GT, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wiangkham T, Wiens KE, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wojtyniak B, Wolfe CDA, Wondmieneh AB, Wool EE, Wu AM, Wu J, Xu G, Yamada T, Yamagishi K, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yearwood JA, Yeheyis TY, Yilgwan CS, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yoosefi Lebni J, York HW, Younis MZ, Younker TP, Yousefi Z, Yousefinezhadi T, Yousuf AY, Yusefzadeh H, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zakzuk J, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zandian H, Zhang ZJ, Zheng P, Zhou M, Ziapour A, Murray CJL. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020; 396:1160-1203. [PMID: 33069325 PMCID: PMC7566045 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30977-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 701] [Impact Index Per Article: 175.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2019] [Revised: 03/10/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. METHODS 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. FINDINGS The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. INTERPRETATION Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Deshpande A, Miller-Petrie MK, Lindstedt PA, Baumann MM, Johnson KB, Blacker BF, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abegaz KH, Abejie AN, Abreu LG, Abrigo MR, Abualhasan A, Accrombessi MMK, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhikari TB, Afarideh M, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Ahmed AE, Akalu TY, Akanda AS, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam S, Alam N, Alamene GM, Alanzi TM, Albright J, Albujeer A, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alebel A, Alemu ZA, Ali M, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amit AML, Amul GGH, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Ansariadi A, Antonio CAT, Antony B, Antriyandarti E, Arabloo J, Aref HMA, Aremu O, Armoon B, Arora A, Aryal KK, Arzani A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asmelash D, Atalay HT, Athari SM, Athari SS, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Awasthi S, Awoke N, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azman AS, Babaee E, Badawi A, Bagherzadeh M, Bakkannavar SM, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Banoub JAM, Barac A, Barboza MA, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Bay VD, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beheshti M, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Benzian H, Berbada DA, Bernstein RS, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Boufous S, Brady OJ, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton GB, Brown A, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Cámera LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro F, Cerin E, Chalise B, Chattu VK, Chin KL, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Cormier NM, Costa VM, Cromwell EA, Dadi AFF, Dahiru T, Dahlawi SMA, Dandona R, Dandona L, Dang AK, Daoud F, Darwesh AM, Darwish AH, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, Dash AP, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, De la Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Demissie DB, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Desalew A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon P, Dhimal M, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Dipeolu IO, Do HT, Dolecek C, Doyle KE, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Edinur HA, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, El Nahas N, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elhabashy HR, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Endalew DA, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Etemadi A, Ezekannagha O, Faraon EJA, Fareed M, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fasil AF, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Fekadu W, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Flohr C, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Frostad JJ, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Garcia GM, Gatotoh AM, Gayesa RT, Gebremedhin KB, Geramo YCD, Gesesew HA, Gezae KE, Ghashghaee A, Ghazi Sherbaf F, Gill TK, Gill PS, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Gizaw Z, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goulart BNG, Goulart AC, Grada A, Green MS, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guimarães RA, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Ha GH, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile DH, Haile MT, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Handiso DW, Haririan H, Hariyani N, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasanzadeh A, Hassen HY, Hayelom DH, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari B, Hendrie D, Henok A, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hidru HDD, Hird TR, Hoang CL, Hollerich GI, Hoogar P, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Hu G, Humayun A, Hussain SA, Hussen MAA, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic MD, Imani-Nasab MH, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Ivers RQ, Iwu CJ, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Jalali A, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kanchan T, Karch A, Karki S, Kasaeian A, Kasahun GG, Kasaye HK, Kassa GG, Kassa GM, Kayode GA, Kebede MM, Keiyoro PN, Ketema DB, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khan J, Khan MN, Khatab K, Khater MM, Khater AM, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaei M, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri A, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa S, Kisa A, Kochhar S, Kolola T, Komaki H, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kugbey N, Kumar P, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal A, Lal DK, Lam H, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lasrado S, Lebedev G, Lee PH, LeGrand KE, Leili M, Lenjebo TL, Leshargie CT, Levine AJ, Lewycka S, Li S, Linn S, Liu S, Lopez JCF, Lopukhov PD, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahadeshwara Prasad D, Mahasha PW, Mahotra NB, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Martinez G, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Mathur MR, Mayala BK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, Meharie BG, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mehta KM, Mekonnen T, Mekonnen TC, Meles GG, Meles HG, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Metekiya WM, Metekiya WM, Miazgowski B, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohajer B, Mohammad Y, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadibakhsh R, Mohammed S, Mohammed JA, Mohammed H, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Moodley Y, Moradi M, Moradi G, Moradi-Joo M, Moraga P, Morales L, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mozaffor M, Munro SB, Muriithi MK, Murray CJL, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naik G, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Nazari J, Ndwandwe DE, Negoi I, Netsere HB, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen QP, Nigatu SG, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nojomi M, Norheim OF, Noubiap JJ, Oancea B, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olusanya JO, Olusanya BO, Onwujekwe OE, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pana A, Park EK, Patel SK, Pathak A, Patle A, Paulos K, Pepito VCF, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pescarini JM, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pirsaheb M, Poljak M, Pollock I, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Prada SI, Preotescu L, Quintana H, Rabiee N, Rabiee M, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi S, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MA, Rahman MHU, Rajati F, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rasella D, Rath GK, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawasia WF, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AM, Resnikoff S, Riahi SM, Ribeiro AI, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Rubagotti E, Rubino S, Saad AM, Sabour S, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari Y, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Saleem A, Salem H, Salem MR, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Saraswathy SYI, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Sathish T, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Sayyah M, Sbarra AN, Schaeffer LE, Schwebel DC, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shahid I, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Shetty BSK, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shivakumar KM, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Silva DAS, Singh V, Singh NP, Singh BBS, Singh JA, Singh A, Sinha DN, Sisay MM, Skiadaresi E, Smith DL, Soares Filho AM, Sobhiyeh MR, Sokhan A, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Suleria HAR, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadesse DB, Tarigan IU, Taye B, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelemedhin SW, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Tesfay BE, Tesfay FH, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, ThekkePurakkal AS, Thomas N, Thompson RL, Thomson AJ, Topor-Madry R, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ullah I, Unnikrishnan B, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Veisani Y, Violante FS, Vollmer S, W/hawariat FG, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Wang Y, Wangdi K, Weiss DJ, Weldesamuel GT, Werkneh AA, Westerman R, Wiangkham T, Wiens KE, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolde HF, Wondafrash DZ, Wonde TE, Worku GT, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yaseri M, Yatsuya H, Yeshaneh A, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousof HASA, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zadey S, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zandian H, Zar HJ, Zerfu TA, Zhang Y, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Zuniga YMH, Hay SI, Reiner RC. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17. Lancet Glob Health 2020; 8:e1162-e1185. [PMID: 32827479 PMCID: PMC7443708 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30278-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2020] [Revised: 05/01/2020] [Accepted: 06/04/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. METHODS We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. FINDINGS Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. INTERPRETATION Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Bates AE, Primack RB, Moraga P, Duarte CM. COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown as a "Global Human Confinement Experiment" to investigate biodiversity conservation. Biol Conserv 2020; 248:108665. [PMID: 32549587 PMCID: PMC7284281 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 111] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2020] [Revised: 06/03/2020] [Accepted: 06/05/2020] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Efforts to curtail the spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) have led to the unprecedented concurrent confinement of nearly two-thirds of the global population. The large human lockdown and its eventual relaxation can be viewed as a Global Human Confinement Experiment. This experiment is a unique opportunity to identify positive and negative effects of human presence and mobility on a range of natural systems, including wildlife, and protected areas, and to study processes regulating biodiversity and ecosystems. We encourage ecologists, environmental scientists, and resource managers to contribute their observations to efforts aiming to build comprehensive global understanding based on multiple data streams, including anecdotal observations, systematic assessments and quantitative monitoring. We argue that the collective power of combining diverse data will transcend the limited value of the individual data sets and produce unexpected insights. We can also consider the confinement experiment as a "stress test" to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses in the adequacy of existing networks to detect human impacts on natural systems. Doing so will provide evidence for the value of the conservation strategies that are presently in place, and create future networks, observatories and policies that are more adept in protecting biological diversity across the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda E. Bates
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL A1C 5S7, Canada
- Corresponding author.
| | - Richard B. Primack
- Biology Department, Boston University, 5 Cummington Mall, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Paula Moraga
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK
| | - Carlos M. Duarte
- Red Sea Research Center (RSRC) and Computational Biosciences Research Center (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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Reiner RC, Wiens KE, Deshpande A, Baumann MM, Lindstedt PA, Blacker BF, Troeger CE, Earl L, Munro SB, Abate D, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe G, Abegaz KH, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adabi M, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Afarideh M, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi M, Ahmed AE, Ahmed MB, Ahmed R, Ajumobi O, Akal CG, Akalu TY, Akanda AS, Alamene GM, Alanzi TM, Albright JR, Alcalde Rabanal JE, Alemnew BT, Alemu ZA, Ali BA, Ali M, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amare AT, Amini S, Amit AML, Andrei CL, Anegago MT, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Antonio CAT, Antriyandarti E, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Armoon B, Aryal KK, Arzani A, Asadi-Lari M, Ashagre AF, Atalay HT, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awasthi A, Awoke N, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Ayele AA, Aynalem YAA, Azari S, Babaee E, Badawi A, Bakkannavar SM, Balakrishnan S, Bali AG, Banach M, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Bayati M, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele YA, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Berbada DA, Beyranvand T, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Biswas RK, Bogale KA, Bohlouli S, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Briko NI, Briko AN, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Castro F, Chansa C, Chatterjee P, Chattu VK, Chauhan BG, Chin KL, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Claro RM, Cormier NM, Costa VM, Damiani G, Daoud F, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darwish AH, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, Dasa TT, Davila CA, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, De Neve JW, Demeke FM, Demis AB, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Desalew A, Dessie GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon P, Dhimal M, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Ding EL, Diro HD, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doku DT, Dolecek C, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duko Adema B, Dunachie SJ, Durães AR, Duraisamy S, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elemineh DA, El-Jaafary SI, Elkout H, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Endalamfaw A, Endalew DA, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Etemadi A, Farag TH, Faraon EJA, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Farioli A, Faro A, Farzam H, Fazaeli AA, Fazlzadeh M, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Franklin RC, Frostad JJ, Fukumoto T, Gayesa RT, Gebremariam KT, Gebremedhin KBB, Gebremeskel GG, Gedefaw GA, Geramo YCD, Geta B, Gezae KE, Ghashghaee A, Ghassemi F, Gill PS, Ginawi IA, Goli S, Gomes NGM, Gopalani SV, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guimares RA, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile MT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Handiso DW, Haririan H, Hariyani N, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasanzadeh A, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Hayelom DH, Heidari B, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hidru HDD, Hoang CL, Hoogar P, Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi M, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Hu G, Humayun A, Hussain SA, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Iwu CJ, Jaca A, Jafari Balalami N, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Jalali A, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jia P, Johnson KB, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kahsay A, Kalani H, Kanchan T, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karki S, Kasaeian A, Kasahun GG, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Keiyoro PN, Ketema DB, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khalil AT, Khalil I, Khalilov R, Khan MN, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan J, Khatab K, Khater A, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaei M, Khazaei S, Khodamoradi E, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa S, Kisa A, Kissoon N, Kondlahalli SKMKMM, Kosek MN, Koyanagi A, Kraemer MUG, Krishan K, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal A, Lal DK, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lasrado S, Lee PH, Leili M, Lenjebo TTLL, Levine AJ, Lewycka S, Li S, Linn S, Lodha R, Longbottom J, Lopukhov PD, Magdeldin S, Mahasha PW, Mahotra NB, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Manafi F, Manda AL, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Marczak LB, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Masaka A, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mayala BK, McAlinden C, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Meles GG, Melese A, Memish ZA, Mena AT, Menezes RG, Mengesha MM, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Meretoja TJ, Miazgowski B, Mihretie KMM, Miller-Petrie MK, Mills EJ, Mir SM, Mirabi P, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohamadi-Bolbanabad A, Mohammad KA, Mohammad Y, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Darwesh A, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed AS, Mohammed S, Mohammed JA, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moradi M, Moradi G, Moradi-Joo M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Mosapour A, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mozaffor MMM, Muluneh AG, Muriithi MK, Murray CJL, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nazari J, Ndwandwe DE, Negoi I, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen QP, Nguyen TH, Nguyen CT, Nigatu D, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nojomi M, Noubiap JJ, Oh IH, Okpala O, Olagunju AT, Omar Bali A, Onwujekwe OE, Ortega-Altamirano DDV, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pana A, Pashaei T, Pati S, Patle A, Patton GC, Paulos K, Pepito VCF, Pereira A, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Pigott DM, Piroozi B, Platts-Mills JA, Poljak M, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prada SI, Preotescu L, Quintana H, Rabiee N, Rabiee M, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MA, Rajati F, Ramezanzadeh K, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rasella D, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rawal L, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AMN, Reta MA, Rezaei S, Ribeiro AI, Rickard J, Rios González CM, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roro EM, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rubino S, Saad AM, Sabour S, Sadeghi E, Safari S, Safdarian M, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salehi F, Salehi Zahabi S, Salem MRR, Salem H, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santos IS, Saraswathy SYI, Sarker AR, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sbarra AN, Schaeffer LE, Schwebel DC, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Shabaninejad H, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shallo SA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharif M, Shey MS, Shibuya K, Shiferaw WSS, Shigematsu M, Shil A, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Si S, Siabani S, Singh JA, Singh NP, Sinha DN, Sisay MM, Skiadaresi E, Smith DL, Sobhiyeh MR, Sokhan A, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Suleria HAR, Sykes BL, Tamirat KS, Tassew AA, Taveira N, Taye B, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesfay BE, Tesfay FH, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Tlaye KG, Tlou B, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran KB, Trihandini I, Ullah I, Unnikrishnan B, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Veisani Y, Violante FS, Vollmer S, Vos T, Wada FW, Waheed Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weldesamuel GT, Welgan CA, Westerman R, Wiangkham T, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CSS, Wolde HF, Wondafrash DZ, Wonde TE, Wu AM, Xu G, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yaseri M, Yenesew MA, Yeshaneh A, Yilma MT, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousof HASA, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zamani M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zandian H, Zeleke AJ, Zepro NB, Zewale TA, Zhang D, Zhang Y, Zhao XJ, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395:1779-1801. [PMID: 32513411 PMCID: PMC7314599 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30114-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2019] [Revised: 10/24/2019] [Accepted: 01/10/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. METHODS We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. FINDINGS The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. INTERPRETATION By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Moraga P, Ketcheson DI, Ombao HC, Duarte CM. Assessing the age- and gender-dependence of the severity and case fatality rates of COVID-19 disease in Spain. Wellcome Open Res 2020; 5:117. [PMID: 33954263 PMCID: PMC8063525 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15996.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The assessment of the severity and case fatality rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the determinants of its variation is essential for planning health resources and responding to the pandemic. The interpretation of case fatality rates (CFRs) remains a challenge due to different biases associated with surveillance and reporting. For example, rates may be affected by preferential ascertainment of severe cases and time delay from disease onset to death. Using data from Spain, we demonstrate how some of these biases may be corrected when estimating severity and case fatality rates by age group and gender, and identify issues that may affect the correct interpretation of the results. Methods: Crude CFRs are estimated by dividing the total number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases. CFRs adjusted for preferential ascertainment of severe cases are obtained by assuming a uniform attack rate in all population groups, and using demography-adjusted under-ascertainment rates. CFRs adjusted for the delay between disease onset and death are estimated by using as denominator the number of cases that could have a clinical outcome by the time rates are calculated. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to compare CFRs obtained using different levels of ascertainment and different distributions for the time from disease onset to death. Results: COVID-19 outcomes are highly influenced by age and gender. Different assumptions yield different CFR values but in all scenarios CFRs are higher in old ages and males. Conclusions: The procedures used to obtain the CFR estimates require strong assumptions and although the interpretation of their magnitude should be treated with caution, the differences observed by age and gender are fundamental underpinnings to inform decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paula Moraga
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath, Somerset, BA2 7AY, UK
| | - David I. Ketcheson
- Computer, Electrical, and Mathematical Sciences & Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Hernando C. Ombao
- Computer, Electrical, and Mathematical Sciences & Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Carlos M. Duarte
- Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
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Polonsky JA, Baidjoe A, Kamvar ZN, Cori A, Durski K, Edmunds WJ, Eggo RM, Funk S, Kaiser L, Keating P, de Waroux OLP, Marks M, Moraga P, Morgan O, Nouvellet P, Ratnayake R, Roberts CH, Whitworth J, Jombart T. Outbreak analytics: a developing data science for informing the response to emerging pathogens. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2020; 374:20180276. [PMID: 31104603 PMCID: PMC6558557 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0276] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite continued efforts to improve health systems worldwide, emerging pathogen epidemics remain a major public health concern. Effective response to such outbreaks relies on timely intervention, ideally informed by all available sources of data. The collection, visualization and analysis of outbreak data are becoming increasingly complex, owing to the diversity in types of data, questions and available methods to address them. Recent advances have led to the rise of outbreak analytics, an emerging data science focused on the technological and methodological aspects of the outbreak data pipeline, from collection to analysis, modelling and reporting to inform outbreak response. In this article, we assess the current state of the field. After laying out the context of outbreak response, we critically review the most common analytics components, their inter-dependencies, data requirements and the type of information they can provide to inform operations in real time. We discuss some challenges and opportunities and conclude on the potential role of outbreak analytics for improving our understanding of, and response to outbreaks of emerging pathogens. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control‘. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A Polonsky
- 1 Department of Health Emergency Information and Risk Assessment, World Health Organization , Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva , Switzerland.,3 Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva , 1 rue Michel-Servet, 1211 Geneva , Switzerland
| | - Amrish Baidjoe
- 4 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London , Medical School Building, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place London W2 1PG , UK
| | - Zhian N Kamvar
- 4 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London , Medical School Building, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place London W2 1PG , UK
| | - Anne Cori
- 4 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London , Medical School Building, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place London W2 1PG , UK
| | - Kara Durski
- 2 Department of Infectious Hazard Management, World Health Organization , Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva , Switzerland
| | - W John Edmunds
- 5 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK.,6 Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK
| | - Rosalind M Eggo
- 5 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK.,6 Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK
| | - Sebastian Funk
- 5 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK.,6 Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK
| | - Laurent Kaiser
- 3 Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva , 1 rue Michel-Servet, 1211 Geneva , Switzerland
| | - Patrick Keating
- 5 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK.,8 UK Public Health Rapid Support Team , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK
| | - Olivier le Polain de Waroux
- 5 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK.,8 UK Public Health Rapid Support Team , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK.,9 Public Health England , Wellington House, 133-155 Waterloo Road, London SE1 8UG , UK
| | - Michael Marks
- 7 Clinical Research Department, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK
| | - Paula Moraga
- 10 Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics (CHICAS), Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University , Lancaster LA1 4YW , UK
| | - Oliver Morgan
- 1 Department of Health Emergency Information and Risk Assessment, World Health Organization , Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva , Switzerland
| | - Pierre Nouvellet
- 4 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London , Medical School Building, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place London W2 1PG , UK.,11 School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex , Sussex House, Brighton BN1 9RH , UK
| | - Ruwan Ratnayake
- 5 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK.,6 Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK
| | - Chrissy H Roberts
- 7 Clinical Research Department, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK
| | - Jimmy Whitworth
- 5 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK.,8 UK Public Health Rapid Support Team , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK
| | - Thibaut Jombart
- 4 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London , Medical School Building, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place London W2 1PG , UK.,5 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK.,8 UK Public Health Rapid Support Team , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT , UK
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Moraga P. Species Distribution Modeling using Spatial Point Processes: a Case Study of Sloth Occurrence in Costa Rica. The R Journal 2020. [DOI: 10.32614/rj-2021-017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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