Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Clinical and laboratory characteristics of children with severe and nonsevere COVID-19 in Kermanshah, west of Iran: A retrospective study

Background and Aims

The study aimed to collect and compare clinical and laboratory findings of children with severe and nonsevere COVID-19 in Kermanshah City, located in the west of Iran.

Methods

The study was conducted on 500 children with COVID-19 hospitalized in Mohammad-Kermanshahi Hospital in Kermanshah City. Pediatric COVID-19 was confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test using respiratory secretion samples. Medical records were reviewed and information related to demographic characteristics, underlying diseases, clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, and chest computed tomography (CT) scans were all extracted from electronic and paper records. Patients were divided into three groups according to the severity of the disease: mild, moderate, and severe. Clinical and laboratory findings were compared between the groups and the collected data were analyzed by statistical methods.

Results

Out of 500 patients, 286 were boys and 214 were girls. Of the patients, 321 cases were only COVID-19, while 179 patients were diagnosed as Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) positive. The average age of COVID-19 patients was 3.85 ± 4.48 and of MIS-C patients was 3.1 ± 3.5. In order, fever, cough, and heart disorders were the most common symptoms in patients with COVID-19 and MIS-C, respectively. In terms of disease severity, 246 patients had mild disease, 19 patients had moderate disease, and 56 patients had severe disease. In severe patients, the average number of white blood cells (WBC) was higher, while the average number of lymphocytes was lower. Also, in these patients, the average age was lower, and most of them had respiratory distress. In mild patients, often cough, diarrhea, and vomiting were observed.

Conclusion

The results of our study showed that laboratory factors such as WBC count, lymphocyte count, CT findings, Respiratory distress, cough, diarrhea, and vomiting can be used to evaluate the severity of COVID-19 in children.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparison of Therapeutic Effect and Safety of Oral and Rectal Use of Acetaminophen on Patent Ductus Arteriosus in Preterm Infants: Clinical Randomized Trial

The prevalence of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in preterm infants is high. There is little information about the therapeutic effect and safety of rectal acetaminophen in the treatment of PDA. We aimed to compare the therapeutic effect and safety of oral and rectal acetaminophen on PDA in preterm infants. This study was a single-blind randomized clinical trial using 40 preterm infants. The cases were hospitalized in the neonatal intensive care unit of Mohammad Kermanshahi and Imam Reza hospitals of Kermanshah. Subjects were randomly divided into 2 groups, the first group was treated with oral acetaminophen and the second group was treated with rectal acetaminophen. The presence of PDA and response to treatment was assessed based on pre- and post-treatment echocardiographic criteria. The likelihood of complications or prohibition of acetaminophen use was assessed with paraclinical tests before and after treatment. The neonates were in the age range of 30 to 35 weeks. Twenty-one cases (52.5%) were boys and 19 cases (47.5%) were girls. Two cases in the oral-acetaminophen group and 1 case in the rectal-acetaminophen group needed the second round of treatment. There was no difference between the success of treatment and the type of treatment. The study showed that there was no difference between PDA treatment of preterm infants with oral and rectal acetaminophen. Also, no side effects were observed in treatment with any of the treatments. Therefore, it could be suggested that in infants who are intolerant to oral acetaminophen, the rectal form can be used.

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Kermanshah, west of Iran from 2014 to 2021

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the implementation of the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of the HIV-PMTCT program in Kermanshah, west of Iran, from 2014 to 2021.

METHODS

The data of all HIV-infected mothers and their infants who were monitored by the Kermanshah behavioral diseases counseling center was extracted and recorded in a checklist.

RESULTS

Out of 95 included infant, 45 (47.4%) were girls and 50 (52.6%) were boys. The mothers were mostly infected with HIV via their infected spouse. The pregnancies of 77 cases (82.1%) were in accordance with the national guideline. The average length of treatment for this group was 185 days. Of the 18 mothers who did not receive treatment, nine were diagnosed during childbirth and nine had no available information. All infants born from infected mothers underwent after-birth-antiretroviral prophylaxis, and all remained healthy. There was no statistically significant relationship between the birth weight and height of neonates with maternal age, maternal last viral load, disease stage, education, and maternal CD4 levels. Only a statistically significant relationship was observed between the duration of treatment and the infants' weight.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest the feasibility and effectiveness of the PMTCT program for HIV-positive mothers in Kermanshah. It seems that if pregnant HIV-positive women are diagnosed early and covered by a good prevention program on time, the risk of HIV to their babies will be reduced, significantly.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Survival-related factors in HIV/AIDS patients: A retrospective cohort study from 2011 to 2019 in Kermanshah, Iran

INTRODUCTION

Accurate evaluation of the survival rate among HIV-positive populations is pivotal for HIV management.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the survival rate and potential survival-related factors in HIV/AIDS patients from 2011 to 2019 in the city of Kermanshah in the west of Iran.

METHOD

In this study, 915 HIV-positive patients registered by the Kermanshah Behavioral diseases counseling center, were surveyed from 2011 to 2019. By reading the patients' files, the proper data related to the survival factors were extracted and statistically analyzed.

RESULTS

Of 915 patients, 220 (24%) died. The one-year, five-year, and ten-year survival rates were 84%, 72%, and 62%, respectively. There was a significant relationship between the survival rate and many other parameters, including treatment variables, CD4+ T cell count, the way of HIV transmission, level of education, gender, and marital status. Over time, timely initiation of treatment has increased. The data also showed that HIV transmission through drug injection has decreased, while the sexual transmission of HIV has increased.

CONCLUSIONS

The results showed that in recent years, due to the appropriate treatment, the survival rate of HIV patients has increased. The highest risk factor of death was for people with low CD4+ T cell count, lack of antiretroviral therapy, low level of education, male gender, and people who inject drugs. These people need more attention to get tested for HIV- related indexes and to receive proper treatment.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A systematic review and meta-analysis on the antibiotic resistance of Neisseria meningitidis in the last 20 years in the world

BACKGROUND

Neisseria meningitidis is one of the most important causes of meningitis and pathogens-associated deaths in developing and developed countries. Effective anti-microbial agents are pivotal to treat and control N. meningitidis infections. The aim of the present study was to systematically review published studies on the antibiotic resistance of N. meningitidis in the last 20 years (2000-2020) in the world.

METHODS

Published researches were identified through a literature search using reputable databases including PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Finally, 24 studies were included for a random-effects model meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The overall resistance to most commonly used antibiotics such as ceftriaxone, cefotaxime, ciprofloxacin and rifampin was low, ranging from 1 to 3.4%. However, non-sensitivity to penicillin, as the first-line antibiotic against N. meningitidis, was higher (27.2%). Altogether, the resistance to the first-line antibiotics (except penicillin) is still low indicating these drugs are effective against meningococcal meningitis. We also found a significant gap between MIC and disk diffusion for evaluating resistance to antibiotics in which disk diffusion overestimate the resistance rate.

CONCLUSIONS

To properly management and prevent the spread of N. miningitidis isolates resistant antibiotics, it is necessary to monitor the pattern of antibiotic susceptibility regionally and globally using the MIC methods.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spectrum of MEFV gene mutations in 4,256 familial Mediterranean fever patients from Iran: a comprehensive systematic review

Background

Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), known as a disease with a high prevalence rate among Armenian, Turkish, Jewish, and Arab descent populations, occurs as a result of pathogenic variants in mediterranean fever (MEFV) gene. The aim of this study was to review the spectrum and frequency of MEFV gene mutations reported among Iranian FMF patients.

Methods

After performing a systematic review of the literature and implementation of inclusion and exclusion criteria, 16 articles published between 2004 and 2020, involving 4,256 Iranian FMF patients, were included.

Results

A total of 38 different MEFV gene mutations were identified. The most common mutations among Iranian FMF patients were: p.M694V (c.2080A > G) (20.27%), p.E148Q (c.442G > C) (10.27%), p.V726A (c.2177T > C) (8.24%), p.M680I (both c.2040G > C and c.2040G > A) (7.20%), p.R761H (c.2282G > A) (2.1%), and p.M694I (c.2082G > A) (2. 1%). The frequencies of these mutations were significantly different in different parts of the country.

Conclusions

The ranks and frequencies of p.M694V, p.E148Q, p.V726A, p.M680I, and p.M694I in our population were closer to those observed in the Mediterranean countries, especially in the Middle Eastern Arab populations. Although some comprehensive studies have been performed on Azeri Turkish patients living in northwestern Iran, studies in other areas, especially in eastern Iran, have been very limited. One reason for this observation could be due to the low frequency of FMF patients in those areas. Regardless of the reason for this, the exact spectrum and frequency of MEFV gene mutations in Iranian FMF patients remain unclear. Therefore, comprehensive future studies in different parts of the country are recommended.

Epidemiological data of national Kawasaki disease registry in Iran, 2007-2019

INTRODUCTION

Kawasaki disease(KD) is a vasculitis of childhood that tends to influence the coronary arteries. There is no national data about the prevalence of KD in Iran. This study aimed to perform a national registry in Iran for 13 years.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, the data for KD extracted from medical records of <19 year-old patients admitted to tertiary hospitals in Iran between 2007 and 2019 were recorded in the national KD registry system. Age, admission date, gender, location, and presence of KD criteria, laboratory and echocardiography findings, and treatment modalities were evaluated. Complete KD was considered if ≥4 clinical criteria of the KD existed and otherwise, incomplete KD was considered.

RESULTS

Data from 1,682 KD patients including 999(59.39%) boys and 683(40.61%) girls and male/female ratio of 1.46 were evaluated. The mean age was 3.08 ± 2.49 years and 1465(87%) were living in urban regions. The yearly incidence of the disease was between 2.62 to 3.03 from 2015 to 2019. The highest age-specific incidence was observed in children <1-year-old. Incomplete and resistant KD included 1,321(78.54%) and 9(0.54%) patients, respectively. Abnormal echocardiography was detected in 619(36.80%) patients. Leukocytosis, with dominancy of neutrophils, anemia, thrombocytosis and increased ESR and CRP were the most noticeable laboratory findings. No death due to KD disease was reported.

CONCLUSION

Based on this study, most of the KD cases are presented with atypical presentation in Iran. So, increasing awareness of primary healthcare workers by educating and updating their data is very important in timely diagnosis and management of the disease.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

BACKGROUND

Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

METHODS

For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.

FINDINGS

By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.

FINDINGS

The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The effects of natural disasters on leishmaniases frequency: A global systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Natural disasters (NDs) may increase the outbreaks and transmissions of vector-borne diseases such as cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and visceral leishmaniasis (VL). However, the relationship between leishmaniases and NDs has not yet been clearly established. Here, we systematically reviewed all reported articles in this field to answer whether NDs increase the frequency of leishmaniases.

METHODS

All the related articles published during January 2000 till January 2020 were reviewed. Moreover, all NDs and the associated leishmaniases frequencies reports in 17 leishmaniases endemic countries were searched to find any ND-leishmaniases relationship.

RESULTS

After the initial screening, 39 articles on ND-leishmaniases were selected and systematically reviewed. These articles showed different frequencies of CL in the endemic areas before and after NDs in some regions of Pakistan and Iran and in case of VL in Brazil, Ethiopia, and Sudan. After thorough deliberation, four studies for CL-ND and five studies for VL-ND relationships were selected for meta-analysis. The results showed increases in the leishmaniases incidences after NDs, although not robustly.

CONCLUSION

The lack of a strong leishmaniases-ND relationship could be attributed to the local compilations of such data in scattered regions of the endemic countries. Therefore, currently a substantial knowledge gap on leishmaniases-ND relationship is apparent.

Prevalence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Iran: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Leishmania infantum is the main cause of human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL; also known as kala-azar) in the Middle East and may be fatal if left untreated. This disease was first reported in 1949 in Iran. Despite marked improvements in hygiene and sanitation conditions, the disease is still endemic in some parts of Iran. It is difficult to determine the current prevalence of HVL in Iran due to the scarcity of comprehensive studies in this regard. In response to this gap, a systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to gain better understanding of HVL epidemiology in the general population of Iran. English and Persian databases were searched for studies reporting the prevalence and risk factors associated with HVL in the Iranian people from January 1995 to December 2019. The reported data were selected according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. The pooled prevalence of HVL infection and its 95 % confidence intervals were calculated. Quality assessment, heterogeneity testing and publication bias assessment were also done. Literature search revealed 3634 studies, of which 35 studies met our eligibility criteria, with a total of 50,716 individuals. The meta-analysis was performed on 31 out of 35 included studies. The estimated pooled prevalence of HVL infection according to seropositivity was 2% (95 % CI: 1-2%) in the general population of Iran in which western and northern provinces had the lowest and the highest prevalence, 0.5 % (95 %CI, 0.2-0.7%) and 3% (95 %CI, 1-5 %), respectively. The seroprevalence of HVL among females (2%; 95 %CI, 1-2 %) was more than males (1%; 95 %CI, 1-2 %). The ≤10 and >10 years age groups had similar seroprevalence rates (1%, 95 %CI, 1-2 % versus 1%, 95 %CI, 0-1 %, respectively). There was no significant difference in terms of geographic area, age and sex. Of 31 studies included in the meta-analysis, the most common diagnostic test was the direct agglutination test (96.77 %). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic review of the prevalence of HVL in Iran. The results showed a low seroprevalence of HVL infection. However, the lack of published reports of HVL in an area does not exclusively mean the absence of the disease or carrier. We therefore recommend further studies in this regard.

B Cell Epitopes of Four Fimbriae Antigens of Klebsiella pneumoniae: A Comprehensive In Silico Study for Vaccine Development

Klebsiella pneumoniae is one of the major causes of nosocomial infections worldwide which can cause several diseases in children and adults. The globally dissemination of hyper-virulent strains of K. pneumoniae and the emergence of antibiotics-resistant isolates of this pathogen narrows down the treatment options and has renewed interest in its vaccines. Vaccine candidates of Klebsiella pneumoniae have not been adequately protective, safe and globally available yet. In K. pneumoniae infection, it is well known that B cells that induce robust humoral immunity are necessary for the host complete protection. Identifying the B cell epitopes of antigens is valuable to design novel vaccine candidates. In the present study using immunoinformatics approaches we found B cell epitopes of four K. pneumoniae type 1 fimbriae antigens namely FimA, FimF, FimG, and FimH. Linear and conformational B cell epitopes of each antigen were predicted using different programs. Subsequently, many bioinformatics assays were applied to choose the best epitopes including prediction antigenicity, toxicity, human similarity and investigation on experimental records. These assays resulted in final four epitopes (each for one Fim protein). These final epitopes were modeled and their physiochemical properties were estimated to be used as potential vaccine candidates. Altogether, we found four B cell epitopes of K. pneumoniae Fim antigens that are immunogen, antigenic, not similar to human peptides, not allergen and not toxic. Also, they have suitable physiochemical properties to administrate as vaccine, although their complete efficacy should be also shown in vitro and in vivo.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Immunoinformatics and molecular dynamics studies to predict T-cell-specific epitopes of four Klebsiella pneumoniae fimbriae antigens

Klebsiella pneumoniae (K. pneumoniae) is a causative agent of severe infections in humans. There is no publically available vaccine for K. pneumoniae infections yet. Here, using comprehensive immunoinformatics methods, T-cell-specific epitopes of four type 1 fimbriae antigens of K. pneumoniae were predicted and evaluated as potential vaccine candidates. Both CD8+ (class I) and CD4+ (class II) T-cell-specific epitopes were predicted and the epitopes similar to human proteome were excluded. Subsequently, the windows of class-II epitopes containing class-I epitopes were determined. The immunogenicity, IFN-γ production and population coverage were also estimated. Using the 3D structure of HLA and epitopes, molecular docking was carried out. Two best epitopes were selected for molecular dynamics studies. Our prediction and analyses resulted in the several dominant epitopes for each antigen. The docking results showed that all selected epitopes can bind to their restricted HLA molecules with high affinity. The molecular dynamics results indicated the stability of system with minimum possible deviation, suggesting the selected epitopes can be promising candidates for stably binding to HLA molecules. Altogether, our results suggest that the selected T-cell-specific epitopes of K. pneumoniae fimbriae antigens, particularly the two epitopes confirmed by molecular dynamics, can be applied for vaccine development. However, the in vitro and in vivo studies are required to authenticate the results of the present study.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Effect of Vigna radiata, Tamarix ramosissima and Carthamus lanatus extracts on Leishmania major and Leishmania tropica: An in vitro study

Objective

Current therapy strategies of leishmaniasis have some problems such as high cost, toxicity and side effects. Plant extracts can be a source of drugs to control leishmaniasis. In this study, the effect of hydroalcoholic and chloroformic extracts of Vigna radiata, Tamarix ramosissima, and Carthamus lanatus on Leishmania major and L. tropica was studied.

Methods

The plant samples were collected from west of Iran and their extracts were prepared. Anti-promastigote activity assay of all extracts was done using tetrazolium-dye assay.

Results

Only high concentrations of V. radiata and C. lanatus were able to inhibit Leishmania, while both high and low concentrations of T. ramosissima had antileishmanial effect. No difference was observed between hydroalcoholic with chloroformic extract of each plant.

Conclusion

Altogether, the results revealed the antileishmanial activity of T. ramosissima extracts against L. major and L. tropica, indicating its potential as an antileishmanial agent.

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years.

FINDINGS

Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1-87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1-74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2-15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6-10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8-8·4).

INTERPRETATION

Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Toxoplasma gondii And Neospora caninum In Brain Tissue Of Rodents In North-West Iran

Purpose

Rodents live in proximity to humans and domestic animals. These creatures can serve as reservoir hosts for many zoonotic parasites; therefore, they increase the risk of human infections. The aim of this study was to investigate Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum in rodents caught in Meshgin-Shahr District, Iran.

Patients and methods

In a cross-sectional study, brain samples were collected from 70 rodents caught in Meshgin-Shahr District during March and December 2015. The specimens were examined for exposure to T. gondii and N. caninum with molecular methods.

Results

Seventy rodents were caught, including 50 Meriones persicus, 11 Mus musculus and 9 Cricetulus migratorius. Thirty rodents were female and 40 were males. Using PCR (B1 gene), T. gondii was detected in 7.1% (5/70) of the rodents while N. caninum was not detected. The prevalence of Toxoplasma infection was higher in female rodents (4.28%) compared to male rodents (2.86%), but the difference was not significant.

Conclusion

The results showed a low risk of T. gondii and N. caninum among rodents. Finally, further research is needed to understand the role of these rodent species in the transmission of the above protozoan pathogens to humans and livestock in this area.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

The status of PAH gene-VNTR alleles and mini-haplotypes associations with PAH gene mutations in Iranian Kurdish PKU patients

Background: The analysis of haplotypes/mini-haplotypes in the PAH gene has been used as an informative tool in several genetic anthropology studies. Considering the notion that Iranian population is one of the most heterogeneous i the world, this study was conducted to evaluate the association of VNTR-STR mini-haplotypes with the PAH gene mutations in PKU patients in Kermanshah province. Methods: A total of 24 unrelated Kurdish PKU patients with the known PAH gene causing mutations and 72 healthy controls were selected. The DNA fragments containing VNTR and STR systems were amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For VNTR system, PCR products were separated using electrophoresis on 2.5% agarose gel. For STR system, the samples were analyzed using DNA sequencing analysis version 5.2 software. Results: Overall, 5 PAH-VNTR-alleles, including VNTR3, 7, 8, 9, 12, and 3 PAH-STR-alleles, including STR238, 242, and 250, were detected in this study. VNTR3 and 8 alleles had the most frequency among healthy controls. Also, 6 different mini-haplotype alleles were found to be associated with PKU chromosomes. The 2 most prevalent mutations in Kermanshah province, IVS2+5G>C and IVS9+5G>A, were strongly linked to mini-haplotypes 9/242 and 8/238, respectively. Conclusion: The distributions and frequencies of VNTR alleles in Kurdish population have the most similarity to alleles previously described in European Caucasian families. Moreover, since the most common mutations in Kermanshah PKU chromosomes are rare and this was the first study on mini-haplotypes VNTR/STR among Iranian Kurdish PKU patients, given that this study was the first of its kind, it was not possible to compare its results with that of other studies on Iranian and non-Iranian populations.

Identification of HLA-I restricted epitopes in six vaccine candidates of Leishmania tropica using immunoinformatics and molecular dynamics simulation approaches

In spite of numerous studies on vaccination for various species of Leishmania, research on the development of an effective vaccine for L. tropica is very scarce. In silico epitope prediction is a new way to survey the best vaccine candidates. Here, we predicted the best epitopes of six L. tropica antigens with vaccine capability against this pathogen, using highly frequent HLA-I alleles. Based on the frequent HLA alleles, the protein sequences were screened individually using four different MHC prediction applications, namely SYFPEITHI, ProPredI, BIMAS, and IEDB. Several in silico assays including clustering, human similarity exclusion, epitope conservancy prediction, investigating in experimental records, immunogenicity prediction, and prediction of population coverage were performed to narrow the results and to find the best epitopes. The selected epitopes and their restricted HLA-I alleles were docked and the final epitopes with the lowest binding energy (the highest binding affinity) were chosen. Finally, the stability and the binding properties of the best epitope-HLA-I combinations were analyzed using molecular dynamics simulation studies. We found ten potential peptides with strong binding affinity to highly frequent HLA-I alleles that can be further evaluated as vaccine targets against L. tropica.

An Outbreak of ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in an Iranian Referral Hospital: Epidemiology and Molecular Typing

INTRODUCTION

Klebsiella pneumoniae is a common cause of nosocomial infections; however, there is limited information in Iran regarding nosocomial outbreaks due to extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) producing K pneumoniae strains, particularly using molecular methods. The present study focused on the molecular mechanism of ESBL resistance and genetic relatedness in K. pneumoniae isolates causing nosocomial infections in an Iranian referral hospital.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This study evaluated the antimicrobial resistance and molecular epidemiology of K. pneumoniae causing nosocomial infections in children between October 2013 and March 2014. The ESBL detection was carried out for all the isolates by the CLSI method and PCR was carried out for the detection of the blaSHV, blaTEM, and blaCTX-M genes among ESBL-producing K. pneumonia. Molecular typing of the K. pneumoniae was performed using random amplification of polymorphic DNA-polymerase chain reaction (RAPD-PCR).

RESULTS

A total of 30 isolates of K. pneumoniae were used for epidemiological analysis. High rates of resistance to cefotaxime (n=29, 97%), cefazolin (n=29, 97%), cefepime (n=25, 83%) and gentamicin (n=23, 77%) were observed. A total of 29 strains (97%) produced ESBLs. The frequency of blaSHV, blaCTX-M and blaTEM genes among these isolates was 83% (n=25), 70% (n=21) and 57% (n=17), respectively. Surprisingly 11 isolated (37%) carried blaSHV, blaCTX-M and blaTEM genes simultaneously. Moreover, the concurrent presence of "blaSHV and blaCTX-M" and "blaSHV and blaTEM" was seen in 8 (27%) and 4 (13%) isolates, respectively. RAPDPCR analyses revealed that K. pneumoniae isolates belonged to 2 RAPD-PCR types among which one cluster counted for 28 isolates.

CONCLUSION

To our knowledge, this is the first published report of a nosocomial outbreak of ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae in children in Iran. Although the epidemiology of nosocomial infections with ESBL-producing organisms has not yet been explored in depth in Iran, our findings suggest that ESBL-producing organisms are already an established public health threat in our country.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Surveillance of Antibiotic Consumption Point Prevalence Survey 2014: Antimicrobial Prescribing in Pediatrics Wards of 16 Iranian Hospitals

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics are among the most commonly prescribed drugs in pediatrics. Due to lack of uniformity in pediatric antimicrobial prescribing and the emergence of antibiotic resistance, appropriate drug utilization studies have been found to be crucial to evaluate whether these drugs are properly used.

METHODS

Data were collected between January 2014 and February 2014 in 16 Iranian pediatric hospitals using a standardized method. The point prevalence survey included all inpatient beds.

RESULTS

Of 858 children, 571 (66.6%) received one or more antimicrobials. The indications were therapeutic in 60.6%. The parenteral route was used in 92.5% of therapeutic indications. Ceftriaxone was the most prescribed antimicrobials for therapeutic indications (32.4%) and combination-therapy was the most type of therapy in pediatric intelligent care unit (PICU).

CONCLUSION

According to results of this study, antibiotics' prescribing in pediatrics wards of Iranian hospitals is empirical. Therefore, for quality improvement of antimicrobial use in children continuous audit process and antibiotic prescriptions require further investigation.

Allele specific-PCR and melting curve analysis showed relatively high frequency of β-casein gene A1 allele in Iranian Holstein, Simmental and native cows

There are two allelic forms of A1 and A2 of β-casein gene in dairy cattle. Proteolytic digestion of bovine β-casein A1 type produces bioactive peptide of β-casomorphin-7 known as milk devil. β-casomorphin-7 causes many diseases, including type 1 diabetes, cardiovascular disease syndrome, sudden death and madness. The aim of the present study was to determine the different allelic forms of β-casein gene in Iranian Holstein, Simmental and native cattle in order to identify A1 and A2 variants. The blood samples were collected randomly and DNA was extracted using modified salting out method. An 854 bp fragment including part of exon 7 and part of intron 6 of β-casein gene was amplified by allele specific polymerase chain reaction (AS-PCR). Also, the accuracy of AS-PCR genotyping has been confirmed by melting temperature curve analysis using Real-time PCR machinery. The comparison of observed allele and genotype frequency among the studied breeds was performed using the Fisher exact and Chi-squared test, respectively by SAS program. Obtained results showed the A1 allele frequencies of 50, 51.57, 54.5, 49.4 and 46.6% in Holstein, Simmental, Sistani, Taleshi and Mazandarani cattle populations, respectively. The chi-square test was shown that no any populations were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium for studied marker locus. Comparison and analysis of the test results for allelic frequency showed no any significant differences between breeds (P&gt;0.05). The frequency of observed genotypes only differs significantly between Holstein and Taleshi breeds but no any statistically significant differences were found for other breeds (P&gt;0.05). A relatively high frequency of β-casein A1 allele was observed in Iranian native cattle. Therefore, determine the genotypes and preference alleles A2 in these native and commercial cattle is recommended.

Lack of association between the TNF-α-1031genotypes and generalized aggressive periodontitis disease

Periodontal disease is one of the most prevalent inflammatory illnesses and is a main cause of tooth loss in human population. Tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) gene is one of pro-inflammatory cytokines which has important role in pathogenesis of periodontal disease. The main purpose of this study is to determine genotype abundance of TNF-α-1031 gene in both groups of patients and controls, and also investigation of relation of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) these genotypes with periodontal disease risk. DNA was extracted from blood tissue of 31 patients and 54 controls. The TNF-α-1031 polymorphism was evaluated by polymerase chain reaction- confronting two-pair primer (PCR-CTPP) method. In the GAP group, the frequencies of TT, TC and CC genotypes were 35.48%, 61.29 and 3.23%, respectively. In controls the frequencies of TT, TC and CC genotypes were 22.22%, 72.22%, and 5.56%, respectively. Results of this study showed that there was no significant association between TNF-α (-1031 T/C promoter) gene polymorphisms and the risk of generalized aggressive periodontitis disease.

Meta-analysis of studies comparing adjuvant dexamethasone to glycerol to improve clinical outcome of bacterial meningitis

Background:

Neurological complications are a problematic factor in acute bacterial meningitis; hence, its prevention is the key to ensure the success of meningitis treatment. Glycerol and dexamethasone are both applied in this regard. Oral glycerol is an appropriate alternative instead of intravenous dexamethasone because it does not have problems related to intravenous injection, the high cost, and drug complications. The main objective of this study was to compare the efficacy of adjuvant dexamethasone versus glycerol in order to improve the clinical outcome of bacterial meningitis.

Materials and Methods:

We conducted a search on the available resources including PubMed, Ovid, Elsevier, Cochrane, and another search engines such as Google till 2014. All clinical trials that were performed in the field of comparing the effectiveness of the two drugs and met the inclusion criteria were gathered and after extraction the relative risk (RR) values, the pooled RR was calculated. The main outcome was neurological complications. Meta-analysis of the data was performed in Stata version 11.2 using both fixed and random effect models, weighting each study by inverse of variance.

Results:

In 5 comparative studies (1,340 patients), the rate of neurological complications of glycerol compared to that of dexamethasone was 1.02 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.98 compared to 1.12]. The rate of neurological complications of dexamethasone compared to dexamethasone + glycerol was 1 (95% CI, 0.97 compared to 1.03), dexamethasone compared to placebo was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.97 compared to 1.03), glycerol compared to glycerol + dexamethasone was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.94 compared to 1.02), and glycerol compared to placebo was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94 compared to 1.01). In these studies, no difference was reported between dexamethasone and glycerol in terms of reducing neurological complications.

Conclusion:

Although there were some weak evidences for the nonstatistical significant effect of glycerol in the prevention of neurologic complication after meningitis, there was no difference between glycerol and dexamethasone.

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PD) as a risk factor of male neonatal sepsis

Introduction.Neonatal sepsis is a disease process, which represents the systemic response of bacteria entering the bloodstream during the first 28 days of life. The prevalence of sepsis is higher in male infants than in females, but the exact cause is unknown. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) is an enzyme in the pentose phosphate pathway, which leads to the production of NADPH. NADPH is required for the respiratory burst reaction in white blood cells (WBCs) to destroy microorganisms. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of G6PD deficiency in neonates with sepsis. Materials and methods.This study was performed on 76 neonates with sepsis and 1214 normal neonates from February 2012 to November 2014 in the west of Iran. The G6PD deficiency status was determined by fluorescent spot test. WBCs number and neutrophils percentages were measured and compared in patients with and without G6PD deficiency. Results.The prevalence of the G6PD deficiency in neonates with sepsis was significantly higher compared to the control group (p=0.03). WBCs number and neutrophils percentages in G6PD deficient patients compared with patients without G6PD deficiency were decreased, but were not statistically significant (p=0.77 and p=0.86 respectively). Conclusions.G6PD deficiency is a risk factor of neonatal sepsis and also a justification for more male involvement in this disease. Therefore, newborn screening for this disorder is recommended.

Mutation analysis of PAH gene in patients with PKU in western Iran and its association with polymorphisms: identification of four novel mutations

Phenylketonuria (PKU) is an autosomal recessive disorder characterized by a mutation in the phenylalanine hydroxylase (PAH) gene. Untreated PKU can lead to mental retardation, seizures, and other serious medical problems. This study was designed to investigate the status of molecular defects in the PAH gene and their association with polymorphisms in Kurdish patients with PKU in the Kermanshah province, western Iran. The study was conducted on 27 unrelated patients with PKU over a 2-year period (from 2010 to 2012). All 13 exons plus exon-intron boundaries of the PAH gene were analyzed and we identified 15 different mutations, including two novel mutations, in 51 of the 54 mutant alleles (diagnostic efficiency of 94.4 %). IVS4 + 1G > C (c.441 + 1G > C) and IVS7 - 5 T > C (c.843 - 5 T > C) are novel mutations that have not been reported in the academic literature or the PAH locus database ( http://www.pahdb.mcgill.ca ); therefore, they may be specific to the Kurdish population. IVS2 + 5G > C and IVS9 + 5G > A were the two most prevalent mutations in our sample, with frequencies of 26 % and 17 %, respectively. The second most common mutations were p.R261X, IVS10 - 11G > A, p.K363 > Nfs and IVS7 - 5 T > C, with each showing a relative frequency of 7.4 %. All other detected mutations, including p.F55 > Lfs, p.R176X, p.R243Q, p.V230I, p.R243X, p.R261Q, IVS8 - 7A > G and p.E390G had frequencies of less than 4 %. The present study showed that there is a distinct difference in the characteristics of PAH mutations between the Kermanshah province and other parts of Iran, suggesting that Kermanshah may have a unique population distribution of PAH gene mutations. Iran lies on the route of major ancient movements of the Caucasian people toward the Mediterranean basin, and Kermanshah has previously been called the gateway to Asia. Most of the mutations identified in this study are common in the Mediterranean region. Therefore, our findings are consistent with the historical and geographical links between the Iranian population and the populations of Mediterranean region.

Mutation Analysis of Exons 10 and 17a of CFTR Gene in Patients with Cystic Fibrosis in Kermanshah Province, Western Iran

BACKGROUND

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common genetic disorder with autosomal recessive inheritance among Caucasian populations. So far, more than 1950 different mutations were identified in cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. CFTR gene has 27 exons. The type and distribution of mutations vary widely among different countries and/or ethnic groups. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis was performed on exon10 and exon17a of CFTR gene in CF patients in the Kermanshah province, western Iran.

METHODS

We tested 27 patients admitted to the medical genetics laboratory of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences. The patients were from different cities of Kermanshah province. All the patients had the clinical signals and two positive sweat tests. After filling agreement forms and questionnaire, the peripheral blood sampling and DNA extraction were done. DNA samples were extracted. PCR and sequencing special PCR were done. Finally analysis of the results with DNA sequencing analysis version 5.2 software was performed.

RESULTS

CFTR mutations analysis identified 4 different mutations in our CF patients. The disease-causing mutations were p.F508del (ΔF508) (14.81%), p.S466X (1.85%), and p.T1036I (1.85%). M470V polymorphism with frequency of 74.1% was found in 23 patients (17 homozygous and 6 heterozygous).

CONCLUSION

Three disease-causing mutations in CF patients in the present study account for approximately 18.51% of mutations. The frequency of p.F508del, the most common mutation was 16-18.1% in Iranian population. The results of the present study can be applied for genetic counseling, population screening and prenatal diagnosis.

Comparison of 25-hydroxy vitamin D, calcium and alkaline phosphatase levels in epileptic and non-epileptic children

OBJECTIVE

There is evidence for the existence of bone disease in epileptic patients. The goal of this study was the comparison of serum levels calcium, alkaline phosphatase (ALKP) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D in ambulatory epileptic children in order to evaluate the bone metabolism in epileptic patients.

METHODS

In this prospective analytical study 48 ambulatory epileptic children who were treated by antiepileptic drugs for atleast 6 months as case group compared with 48 children who were age and gender matched as control group. Patients with any neurological deficits and other systemic diseases were excluded. Data was collected by questionnaire and analyzed by spss software version 18.

RESULTS

Mean of calcium level in case and control groups was 9.91 ±0.675 and 10.08 ±0.331 mg/dl respectively, means of ALKP in case were 703 and 607.75 IU/L respectively. Only difference between the ALKP were significant. Calcium levels, ALKP and vitmain D in any of the two groups were not associated with age and a sex but ALKP level in patients was higher and it was statistically siginificant. Calcium levels, ALKP and vitamin D in patients with drug type, dosage and duration of treatment were irrelevant.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study showed that calcium and vitamin D levels were in normal ranges in epileptic and control groups but ALKP levels were significantly higher in epileptic group which can be a valuable indicator of bone metabolism in these patients.

Molecular analysis of exons 6 and 7 of phenylalanine hydroxylase gene mutations in Phenylketonuria patients in Western Iran

BACKGROUND:

Phenylketonuria (PKU) is an inborn error of amino acid metabolism that results from a deficiency of phenylalanine hydroxylase (PAH). According to PAH database, exons 6 and 7 and their flanking introns of PAH gene contain the greatest number of mutant alleles. Therefore, as a preliminary study, nucleotide sequence analysis of exons 6 and 7 of the PAH gene has been performed in 25 PKU patients whose ancestors lived in Kermanshah province of Iran. To date, there has been no mutation data describing the genotypes of the PKU disease in this Kurdish ethnic region background.

MATERIALS AND METHODS:

Twenty-five patients (aged between 2 and 23 years) participated in this study. The DNA fragments containing two exons of the PAH gene [6 and 7] and their exon-flanking intronic sequences were amplified and sequenced.

RESULTS:

The total of detected mutations were R261X (8%), R176X (4%), R243Q (4%), R243X (2%) and R261Q (2%), as they accounted for 20% of all mutant alleles in this study. The identified polymorphisms are: IVS5 -54 G > A (22%), Q232Q (8%) and V245V (4%). All of the detected mutations in this study are related to CpG dinucleotides in the PAH gene sequence.

CONCLUSION:

The frequency of R261X, the most common mutation in our study, in Iranian population is <5%. Furthermore, there is no report of detection of R176X and R243Q in Isfahan and Azeri Turkish populations. These findings confirm the common Mediterranean mutations in this local population, although with more or lower frequencies than those reported in other related studies in Iran. Therefore, it may be necessary to study the PAH gene mutations in other provinces of Iran separately.

Comparison of the accelerated and standard vaccination schedules against hepatitis B in healthcare workers

BACKGROUND

For healthcare workers, sometimes the conventional hepatitis-B virus (HBV) vaccination schedule might not provide seroconversion rapidly enough. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of conventional HBV vaccination with an accelerated schedule (days 0-1-21).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this randomized clinical trial, 161 healthcare workers were divided into two vaccination groups; group A underwent the conventional schedule (0-1-6 months) and group B received the accelerated program (0-10-21 days) of hepatitis B virus vaccine. The anti-HBs antibody was determined 30 days after completion of the third vaccine injection in both groups by enzyme immunoassay (EIA) (Abbot, Aux SYMsys). By using the Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests, the results were analyzed. The protective level of anti-HBS was defined as titer ≥10 MIU/ml.

RESULTS

The seroprotection rate, 30 days after vaccination, were similar in both groups A and B; 96.3% of the participants in group A and 92.6% in group B had anti-HBS antibody ≥10 MIU/ml.

CONCLUSION

Our data indicated that compared to the classic HBS vaccination program an accelerated schedule could also be effective and achieve seroprotection more rapidly.