Cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analysis of disease-modifying drugs of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, autoimmune, and inflammatory disease. The economic burden of MS is substantial, and the high cost of Disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) prices are the main drivers of healthcare expenditures. We conducted a systematic review of studies evaluating the cost-utility and cost-effectiveness of DMDs for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS).

MATERIALS AND METHOD

Searches were conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase. The search covered articles published between May 2001 and May 2023. Studies that were written in English and Persian and examined the cost-utility and cost-effectiveness of DMDs in patients with MS were included in our review. Data extraction was guided by the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist, and the quality of economic evaluations was assessed using the Quality of Health Economics Studies Instrument (QHES). All costs were converted to 2020 U.S. dollars using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).

RESULTS

The search yielded 1589 studies, and 49 studies were eligible for inclusion. The studies were mainly based on a European setting. Most studies employed Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness. The lowest and highest numerical value of outcome measures were -1,623,918 and 2,297,141.53, respectively. Furthermore, the lowest and highest numerical value of the cost of DMDs of RRMS were $180.67, and $1474840.19, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results of all studies, it can be concluded that for the treatment of patients with MS, care-oriented strategies should be preferred to drug strategies. Also, among the drug strategies with different prescribing methods, oral disease-modifying drugs of RRMS should be preferred to injectable drugs and intravenous infusions.

Exploring the landscape of health technology assessment in Iran: perspectives from stakeholders on needs, demand and supply

BACKGROUND

The evaluation of health technologies plays a crucial role in the allocation of resources and the promotion of equitable healthcare access, known as health technology assessment (HTA). This study focuses on Iran's efforts to integrate HTA and aims to gain insights into stakeholder perspectives regarding capacity needs, demand and implementation.

METHODS

In this study, we employed the HTA introduction status analysis questionnaire developed by the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI), which has been utilized in various countries. The questionnaire consisted of 12 questions divided into three sections: HTA need, demand and supply. To identify key informants, we conducted a literature review and consulted with the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME), as well we experts in policy-making, health service provision and HTA. We selected stakeholders who held decision-making positions in the healthcare domain. A modified Persian version of the questionnaire was administered online from September 2022 to January 2023 and was pretested for clarity. The analysis of the collected data involved quantitative methods for descriptive analysis and qualitative methods for thematic analysis.

RESULTS

In this study, a total of 103 questionnaires were distributed, resulting in a favourable response rate of 61% from 63 participants, of whom 68% identified as male. The participants, when assessing the needs of HTA, rated allocative efficiency as the highest priority, with a mean rating of 8.53, thereby highlighting its crucial role in optimizing resource allocation. Furthermore, healthcare quality, with a mean rating of 8.17, and transparent decision-making, with a mean rating of 7.92, were highly valued for their impact on treatment outcomes and accountability. The importance of budget control (mean rating 7.58) and equity (mean rating 7.25) were also acknowledged, as they contribute to maintaining sustainability and promoting social justice. In terms of HTA demand, safety concerns were identified as the top priority, closely followed by effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, with an expanded perspective on the economy. However, limited access to local data was reported, which arose from various factors including data collection practices, system fragmentation and privacy concerns. The priorities of HTA users encompassed coverage, payment reform, benefits design, guidelines, service delivery and technology registration. Evidence generation involved the participation of medical universities, research centres and government bodies, albeit with ongoing challenges in research quality, data access and funding. The study highlights government support and medical education as notable strengths in this context.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of Iran's HTA landscape, considering its capacity, demand and implementation aspects. It underlines the vital role of HTA in optimizing resources, improving healthcare quality and promoting equity. The study also sheds light on the strengths of evidence generation in the country, while simultaneously identifying challenges related to data access and system fragmentation. In terms of policy priorities, evidence-based decision-making emerges as crucial for enhancing healthcare access and integrating technology. The study stresses the need for evidence-based practices, a robust HTA infrastructure and collaboration among stakeholders to achieve better healthcare outcomes in Iran.

Economical Evaluation of Prostate Cancer Treatment Using Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy, 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy and Radical Prostatectomy: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

Prostate cancer is a common form of cancer among men worldwide. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the economic evaluations of prostate cancer treatment strategies.

METHODS

This systematic review was conducted using multiple electronic databases up to May 2021. English-language economic evaluation studies that compared intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT), and radical prostatectomy (RP) were included. The studies were evaluated using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist. The search yielded 1151 potentially relevant publications, which were screened based on the title and abstract. After the removal of duplicates, 55 studies remained, and 9 studies were screened in full text. Finally, textual data were analyzed manually using by-content analysis method.

RESULTS

All studies were cost-effective and evaluated quality-adjusted life year as the efficacy indicator. The studies were conducted from either payers' or health systems' perspectives, and the time horizon varied from 5 to 20 years. We included only full economic evaluation studies. The use of IMRT in comparison with 3DCRT was evaluated in 6 studies, based on which IMRT increased health and reduced side effects of treatment. According to incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) results, IMRT was more cost-effective than 3DCRT. Three studies evaluated the use of RP in comparison with radiotherapy. Based on these studies, radiotherapy was more effective than RP.

CONCLUSION

IMRT was found to be more cost-effective than 3DCRT in all 6 studies compared with the threshold. Radiotherapy was found to be more effective than RP. However, long-term clinical trial studies are needed to confirm these findings and to provide more definitive conclusions.

Psychological impact of the Spring 2019 flood among adult population of Iran

BACKGROUND

From March to April 2019, a flood occurred in several regions of Iran. The most affected provinces were Golestan, Lorestan, and Khuzestan.

AIMS

The present study aimed to determine the prevalence and determinants of psychological distress and depression among the affected adult population 6 months after the event.

METHODS

A cross-sectional household survey with face-to-face interview was carried out on a random sample of 1,671 adults aged above 15 years living in the flood-affected areas from August to September 2019. We applied GHQ-28 and PHQ-9 for the assessment of psychological distress and depression, respectively.

RESULTS

The prevalence of psychological distress and depression were 33.6% (95% CI [29.5, 37.7]) and 23.0% (95% CI [19.4, 26.7]), respectively. Determinants of psychological distress were a history of mental disorders (Adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.7), primary (AOR = 2.9) or high school (AOR = 2.4) education (vs. university), no compensation received (AOR = 2.1), high damage to assets (AOR = 1.8), the house flooded more than 1 m (AOR = 1.8), female gender (AOR = 1.8), and limited access to health care services (AOR = 1.8). Determinants of depression were unemployment (AOR = 5.3) or being a housewife (AOR = 2.7), a history of mental disorders (AOR = 4.1), high damage to assets (AOR = 2.5), no compensation received (AOR = 2.0), the house flooded more than 1 m (AOR = 1.8), limited access to health care services (AOR = 1.8), and high wealth index (AOR = 1.7).

CONCLUSION

The results of this study revealed a high prevalence of psychological distress and depression in the flood-affected adult population. The high-risk group, particularly flood victims who had a history of mental disorders, and those exposed to severe damages of flood, should be prioritized for screening, and mental health services.

The impact of the Iranian health transformation plan policy on equitable access to medical imaging services in West Iran

OBJECTIVE

Equity in the delivery of health services, including diagnostic imaging, is crucial to achieving universal health coverage. The Health Transformation Plan (HTP), launched in 2014, represents a major healthcare policy to improve the quality and accessibility of healthcare services. This study aimed to explore the impact of the HTP on equity in the access to medical imaging in Lorestan province, located in west Iran, from 2014 to 2023. Annual growth rates (AGR) of imaging devices were calculated, whilst equity assessment of medical imaging distribution was carried out by means of the Gini coefficient and the Lorenz curve per 100,000 population. The latter was generated using the cumulative distribution of imaging devices, as well as the cumulative population ratio.

RESULTS

Between 2014 and 2023, the number of imaging devices has increased threefold. The AGR of installing CT and MRI scanners in Lorestan province increased between 2014 and 2023. The Gini coefficients increased from 0.12 for CT and 0.16 for MRI in 2014 to 0.33 in 2023 for both devices. This indicates a decrease in equity in access to these fundamental health technologies despite the increase in their figures. Policymakers should better allocate medical equipment based on the specific health needs of different regions throughout Iran.

Factor associated with willingness to pay for prevention of cancer: a study of prostate cancer screening

INTRODUCTION

This study investigates Iranian men's willingness to pay (WTP) for prostate cancer (PCa) screening and influencing factor, along with the impact of information.

METHOD

We assessed preferences for prostate cancer screening in 771 Iranian men aged 40 and above using an internet-based questionnaire survey. Participants received basic and complementary information, and their willingness to pay was determined through a payment card approach. A Wilcoxon test assessed the impact of information. We also analyzed prostate cancer screening demand and employed Heckman's two-step model to evaluate factors influencing the willingness to pay. Additionally, reasons for unwillingness to pay were explored.

RESULTS

Willingness to pay significantly decreased with complementary information relative to basic information (16.3$ vs 17.8$). Heckman model, using WTP based on basic information shows age, education, and monthly household expenditure positively influenced the decision to pay. In contrast, health status, expectations of remaining life and prostate problems history positively affect amount of WTP for PCa screening, and insurance coverage has a negative impact on it. Majority of respondents (91%) supported PCa screening, with 82% expressing a willingness to pay. Common reasons for not paying include seeing screening as a public good (43%), financial constraints (35%), and having insurance (20%). The screening demand is price-sensitive.

CONCLUSION

The basic mindset of Iranian men exaggerates the risk of prostate cancer. Reduced willingness to pay after receiving information reassures the reliability of their financial expectation. Taking into account the factors that influence PCa screening is essential for accurate planning and the successful implementation of this program.

Cost-effectiveness of brentuximab vedotin in Hodgkin lymphoma: a systematic review

PURPOSE

This study aimed to systematically review and critically appraise cost-effectiveness studies on Brentuximab vedotin (BV) in patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL).

METHODS

The PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science core collection, and Embase databases were searched until July 3, 2022. We included published full economic evaluation studies on BV for treating patients with HL. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed using the Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) checklist. Meanwhile, we used qualitative synthesis to analyze the findings. We converted the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) to the value of the US dollar in 2022.

RESULTS

Eight economic evaluations met the study's inclusion criteria. The results of three studies that compared BV plus doxorubicin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (BV + AVD) front-line therapy with doxorubicin, bleomycin, vincristine, and dacarbazine (ABVD) showed that BV is unlikely to be cost-effective as a front-line treatment in patients advanced stage (III or IV) HL. Four studies investigated the cost-effectiveness of BV in patients with relapsed or refractory (R/R) HL after autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). BV was not cost-effective in the reviewed studies at accepted thresholds. In addition, the adjusted ICERs ranged from $65,382 to $374,896 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The key drivers of cost-effectiveness were medication costs, hazard ratio for BV, and utilities.

CONCLUSION

Available economic evaluations show that using BV as front-line treatment or consolidation therapy is not cost-effective based on specific ICER thresholds for patients with HL or R/R HL. To decide on this orphan drug, we should consider other factors such as existence of alternative treatment options, clinical benefits, and disease burden.

Cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging compared to common strategies in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease: a systematic review

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) has established exceptional diagnostic utility and prognostic value in coronary artery disease (CAD). An assessment of the current evidence on the cost-effectiveness of CMR in patients referred for the investigation of CAD is essential for developing an economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CMR in CAD. We conducted a comprehensive search of multiple electronic databases, including PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science core collection, Embase, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), and health technology assessment, to identify relevant literature. After removing duplicates and screening the title/abstract, a total of 13 articles were deemed eligible for full-text assessment. We included studies that reported one or more of the following outcomes: incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALYs), cost per life year gained, sensitivity and specificity rate as the primary outcome, and health utility measures or health-related quality of life as the secondary outcome. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the CHEERS 2022 guidelines. The findings of this study demonstrate that in patients undergoing urgent percutaneous coronary intervention, CMR over a one-year and lifetime horizon leads to higher quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared to current strategies in cases of multivessel disease. The systematic review indicates that the CMR-based strategy is more cost-effective when compared to standard methods such as single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), and coronary angiography (CA) (CMR = $19,273, SPECT = $19,578, CCTA = $19,886, and immediate CA = $20,929). The results also suggest that the CMR strategy can serve as a cost-effective gatekeeping tool for patients at risk of obstructive CAD. A CMR-based strategy for managing patients with suspected CAD is more cost-effective compared to both invasive and non-invasive strategies, particularly in real-world patient populations with a low to intermediate prevalence of the disease.

Correction: Cost-effectiveness of fixed-dose combination pill (Polypill) in primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease: A systematic literature review

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271908.].

Economic Burden of Vision Loss and Eye Disorders in Iran

Background

Globally, population growth and ageing are expected to increase the risk of vision impairment for more people. Eye disorders impose heavy social and economic burdens on communities through increased poverty, reduced quality of life, and decreased employment. We aimed to calculate the economic burden of eye diseases in Iran.

Methods

Prevalence-based and top-down cost estimation methods were used with a sociological approach. Data were collected from the Northeastern Ophthalmology Center Institute for Health Assessment, and Evaluation, besides the 2017 census. Eye diseases were classified according to the ICD10. Data were analyzed using Excel 2016 software.

Results

Survey data were collected from 19,113 patients with vision loss and eye disorders. The average cost of vision loss/eye disorders was estimated to be $250.3. The findings indicated that the economic burden of visual diseases was $2,844 million a year, with direct medical costs comprising 87% (66% of inpatient and 21% of outpatient) and direct non-medical and indirect costs estimated at 6% and 7%, respectively. Furthermore, 72.8% of direct medical costs was paid by insurance companies, 20.6% by patients, and 6.6% by the government.

Conclusion

Eye diseases and vision loss in Iran, as in other countries, are costly for the health system and society. Instituting effective policies and measures to address this rising burden should be a national priority. Another suggestion in this area would be to focus on preventive care and policies such as health education, highlighting the role of reorientation of health services and advocacy (for policies that promote eye health), where relevant.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

Factors Explaining the Change in Socioeconomic Inequality of Disability in Iran: A Repeated Cross-sectional Study

Background

More than 15% of the world's population live with some form of disability. Assessing socioeconomic inequalities in disability and monitoring its change over time can help policymakers to design and implement targeted interventions to reduce these inequalities. This study aimed to assess the change in socioeconomic inequality in disability in Iran from 2000 to 2010.

Methods

Data for this cross-sectional study were obtained from 2 waves of Iran's demographic and health surveys (2000 and 2010). The Wagstaff normalized concentration index was used to measure the socioeconomic inequality of disability. Contributing factors to the inequality in 2000 and 2010 were investigated by concentration index decomposition. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method was used to determine contributing factors of change in disability inequality. All analyses were conducted in Stata14.

Results

The negative and statistically significant concentration indices (-0.132 in 2000 and -0.165 in 2010, P < 0.001) suggested more concentration of disability among poor people. The absolute value of inequality was increased by 0.034 between the 2 points of time (P = 0.025). Level of education (123.5%), household size (12.9%), age (-35.1%), and residency (in terms of Iran's provinces) (-19.3%) were the contributing factors to the measured disability inequality in 2000. In 2010, level of education (105.8%), household size (30.5%), and urban residency (-46.3%) explained the measured inequality. Change in disability inequality was explained by household size (99.4%), province of residence (54.8%), education (36.9%), socioeconomic status (20%), urban residency (-90.3%), and age (-47.7%).

Conclusion

Iran suffers from significant socioeconomic inequality in disability, and it significantly increased over time. Interventions such as increasing health literacy and providing suitable job opportunities for people with low education level, improving the socioeconomic status of extended households, and paying more attention to the balanced development in the provinces and urban and rural areas, and attending to prevention, treatment, and mitigation of disability adversities among poor young and elderly people could be recommended to tackle increased socioeconomic inequality in disability and its unfavorable consequences in Iran.

Cost-benefit Analysis of Breast Cancer Screening with Digital Mammography: A Systematic Review

Background

Breast cancer is a non-communicable and common disease that accounts for a high percentage of deaths. Early diagnosis of this disease reduces the death rate. Screening methods such as digital mammography can help prevent or identify the disease earlier. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the cost-benefit of breast cancer using digital mammography.

Methods

This systematic review was conducted based on PRISMA 2020 checklist. PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar were searched without any time limitation on June 2022. The quality of the studies was evaluated with the CHEERS checklist. After data extraction, the results were synthesized by thematic content analysis.

Results

During the search, 3468 records were identified, of which 1061 were duplicates. 2407 titles and abstracts screened in terms of inclusion criteria. Finally, after studying 20 fulltexts, three of them were included in the study. The quality of these articles was scored between 10 and 16. These studies were from Spain, Denmark, and the United States from 2000 to 2019. Two studies showed that digital mammography is not as effective as other screening methods.

Conclusion

The results of this study showed that digital mammography is not very cost-benefit for the health care system. An increase in its repetition frequency imposes more costs on the health system and doesn't have more benefits for it.

Economical Evaluation of Cancer Types Using Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy Compared to 3D Conformal Radiation Therapy: A Systematic Review

Background

Cancer is the second most common cause of death worldwide. Economic evaluation of cancer treatment to reduce costs can save the health care system millions of dollars while optimizing care. Therefore, this systematic review aimed to study the economic evaluation of cancer treatment using intermediate intensity radiation therapy (IMRT) compared to conventional 3D conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT).

Methods

Literatures from PubMed, Embase, Cochran Library, Google scholar, Scopus and Iranian databases were retrieved since Jan 2000 to Apr 2020 for eligible English studies. The quality of the studies was evaluated using Cheers' checklist and then the textual data were analyzed manually by content analysis method.

Results

Overall, 1790 articles were retrieved, of which 12 studies were reviewed. The article quality score ranged from 14.5 to 23 out of a maximum of 24 points. Eleven studies referred to cost-effectiveness analysis and one study referred to cost-utility analysis. Studies have been conducted in the United States, Canada, Australia, Brazil, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Hungary. IMRT appears to be a cost-effective treatment strategy for rectal cancer, soft tissue sarcoma, and localized carcinoma of the pharynx, and for prostate cancer in terms of prolonging survival, but it is a cost-effective treatment strategy for head cancer. In addition, the neck was not in India's cancer control program.

Conclusion

The results can help to decide whether to use radiation therapy and radiotherapy in the standard treatment path. Furthermore, they underline that IMRT treatment technique was cost effective for a long-time care service.

Comparison of the clinical efficacy of surgical versus medical method for first trimester pregnancy termination in Iran: A quasi-experimental research

BACKGROUND

The surgical and medical options for management of pregnancy termination procedures are acceptable in practice but differ in clinical efficacy, costs, and patient experiences, and deciding what the best method is not clear always. This study aimed to compare clinical efficacy, outcomes, and patient acceptance of dilatation and curettage (D and C) versus medical abortion using misoprostol for first trimester of gestation in Iranian context.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A prospective, multicenter, quasi-experimental research conducted from July 2021 to January 2022. The primary outcomes were the rate of composite complications or complete abortion. Data were analyzed with SPSS 18 using descriptive statistics, independent t-test, analysis of variance and non-parametric tests. Secondary outcomes were quality of life using EQ5D questionnaire, estimated blood loss, pelvic infection, pain level, hospital stay, and acceptability of intervention and relative risk as the effect size.

RESULTS

Finally, 168 patients were included in this study. The composite complication rate among medical abortion patients is significantly more than that of surgical abortion patients (39.3% vs. 4.76%). The relative risk calculated 8.25 (3.05-22.26 CI). Medical abortion patients have experienced higher levels of ongoing bleeding, pain, and symptoms of pelvic infection. The higher level of acceptance has been reported by surgical group patients in comparison to the medical group patients (85.7% vs. 59.5%). Quality of life scores for surgical and medical group estimated 0.6605 and 0.5419, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Surgical method of abortion using D and C is a very safe and highly successful option in comparison to the medical method using misoprostol alone and is associated with better clinical outcomes, acceptance, and quality of life in first trimester of pregnancy among Iranian women.

Cost-effectiveness of remdesivir for the treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Remdesivir is being studied and used to treat coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aimed to systematically identify, critically evaluate, and summarize the findings of the studies on the cost-effectiveness of remdesivir in the treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

In this systematic review, PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, SCOPUS, and the Cochrane Library were searched for studies published between 2019 and 2022. We included all full economic evaluations of remdesivir for the treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Data were summarized in a structured and narrative manner.

RESULTS

Out of 616 articles obtained in this literature search, 12 studies were included in the final analysis. The mean score of the Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) for the studies was 87.66 (high quality). All studies were conducted in high-income countries (eight studies in the USA and one study in England), except for three studies from middle-to-high-income countries (China, South Africa, and Turkey). Six studies conducted their economic analysis in terms of a health system perspective; five studies conducted their economic analysis from a payer perspective; three studies from the perspective of a health care provider. The results of five studies showed that remdesivir was cost-effective compared to standard treatment. Furthermore, the therapeutic strategy of combining remdesivir with baricitinib was cost-effective compared to remdesivir alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results of the present study, remdesivir appears to be cost-effective in comparison with the standard of care in China, Turkey, and South Africa. Studies conducted in the United States show conflicting results, and combining remdesivir with baricitinib is cost-effective compared with remdesivir alone. However, the cost-effectiveness of remdesivir in low-income countries remains unknown. Thus, more studies in different countries are required to determine the cost-effectiveness of this drug.

Cost-Effectiveness of Atrial Fibrillation Screening Strategies: A Systematic Review

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia. AF is associated with an increased risk of stroke. We aimed to review systematically the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies for patients with AF.

Methods

To find related research and articles, articles published in Iranian and international databases by using a combination of MeSH (Medical Subject Headings) terms and based on inclusion and exclusion criteria were searched and reviewed until Dec 2020. The main outcome measures of the final articles were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) per gained or additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), additional case detected, and avoided stroke.

Results

Out of 3,360 studies found, finally, fifteen studies were included in the research. The lowest ICER numerical value was 78.39 for AF screening using ECG for 65-85 yr old Japanese women. The highest value of this index is equal to 70864.31 for performing ECG monitoring for more than 60 d for Canadians over 80 yr without AF history. In two studies, the results were expressed with the years of life gained (YLG measure. Of course, in one study, the results were not reported with this measure, and in one study, the results were reported with ICER.

Conclusion

Most of the studies acknowledged the cost-effectiveness of different AF screening strategies. However, studies that confirmed the cost-effectiveness of population-based screening were more than studies that confirmed the cost-effectiveness of other screening strategies.

Cost-Effectiveness of Remote Cardiac Monitoring With the CardioMEMS Heart Failure System: A Systematic Review

Background

Heart Failure (HF) imposes a relevant burden and a considerable health concern, with high prevalence and mortality rates. This study was conducted to assess the cost-effectiveness of remote cardiac monitoring with the CardioMEMS Heart Failure System.

Methods

In the present systematic review, several scholarly databases were searched and updated from inception up to September 20, 2022. The objective of the present review was formulated according to the patient/population, intervention, comparison and outcomes format. Mortality rate, hospitalization rate, quality-adjusted life year (QALY), total costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio regarding the use of the CardioMEMS System were the key outcomes of the present study. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022 (CHEERS) checklist.

Results

Finally, 5 articles were retained and analyzed in the present systematic review. All studies employed the Markov and decision tree models. Results show that the CardioMEMS system reduced mortality and hospitalization rate and created a higher QALY. In all selected countries the CardioMEMS method is a more expensive method than the standard of care (SoC), with the highest cost in the United States (US) ($201,437) and the lowest cost in the United Kingdom ($25,963), respectively. the highest willingness to pay in the US and the lowest in Italy ($100,000 and $33,000 per QALY), respectively. Results showed that the most cost per QALY for the CardioMEMS system was in the US and the lowest was in the Netherlands ($46,622 and $26,615 per QALY), respectively.

Conclusion

In all selected countries, CardioMEMS is a cost-effective method for monitoring and managing pulmonary artery pressures in HF patients. Strategies such as CardioMEMS, which decrease the rate of hospitalization, are likely to be only more cost-effective in the future.

Cost Effectiveness of Adding Dapagliflozin to Standard Care in Heart Failure Patients with Reduced Ejection Fraction: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Dapagliflozin, a new treatment option for heart failure, leads to a significant reduction in the hospitalization of patients with heart failure. We aimed to review studies on the economic evaluation of adding dapagliflozin to standard care compared with standard care alone in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

METHODS

For this systematic review, the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane, Scopus, and CEA Registry scientific databases were searched from 1 January 2020 to 25 March 2022. Two of the present researchers screened titles and abstracts, extracted data from full-text articles, and evaluated their quality using the Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) checklist for the quality assessment of health economic studies.

RESULTS

Of the 456 abstracts screened, 19 studies met the inclusion criteria. The mean QHES score for the studies was 0.87 (high quality). Eight studies on cost-effectiveness analysis, ten studies on cost-utility analysis, and one study on cost-minimization analysis were conducted. Based on the available evidence and the present findings, the addition of dapagliflozin to standard care in patients with HFrEF was cost effective in most countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results of the present study, the addition of dapagliflozin to standard care in patients with HFrEF was cost effective. More studies investigating the cost effectiveness of dapagliflozin in patients with HFrEF are required in light of the actual epidemiological data of countries in the relevant input parameters. It is also recommended to conduct cost-effectiveness studies of dapagliflozin taking into account costs and benefits from a societal perspective.

Economic evaluation of next-generation sequencing techniques in diagnosis of genetic disorders: A systematic review

In recent years, massively parallel sequencing or next generation sequencing (NGS) has considerably changed both the research and diagnostic fields, and rapid developments have led to the combination of NGS techniques in clinical practice, ease of analysis, and detection of genetic mutations. This article aimed at reviewing the economic evaluation studies of the NGS techniques in the diagnosis of genetic diseases. In this systematic review, scientific databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane, Scopus, and CEA registry) were searched from 2005 to 2022 to identify the related literature on the economic evaluation of NGS techniques in the diagnosis of genetic diseases. Full-text reviews and data extraction were all performed by two independent researchers. The quality of all the articles included in this study was evaluated using the Checklist of Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES). Out of 20 521 screened abstracts, 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. The mean score of the QHES checklist for the studies was 0.78 (high quality). Seventeen studies were conducted based on modeling. Cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-utility analysis, and cost-minimization analysis were done in 26 studies, 13 studies, and 1 study, respectively. Based on the available evidence and findings, exome sequencing, which is one of the NGS techniques, could have the potential to be used as a cost-effective genomic test to diagnose children with suspected genetic diseases. The results of the present study support the cost-effectiveness of exome sequencing in diagnosing suspected genetic disorders. However, the use of exome sequencing as a first- or second-line diagnostic test is still controversial. Most studies have been conducted in high-income countries, and research on the cost-effectiveness of NGS methods is recommended in low- and middle-income countries.

Economic evaluation of ferric carboxymaltose compared with placebo in iron-deficient patients with heart failure: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

It has been shown that ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) improves symptoms and quality of life in iron-deficient patients with heart failure (HF).

AIM

We aimed to systematically review studies conducted on the cost-effectiveness of FCM compared to placebo in iron-deficient patients with HF.

METHOD

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science to find the relevant studies. After removing duplicates, two authors independently evaluated the titles, abstracts, and full texts. We included studies that investigated the full economic evaluations of FCM in HF patients with iron deficiency (cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-utility analysis, and cost-benefit analysis) and used the CHEERS tool to evaluate the quality of the studies.

RESULTS

Seven studies were included which evaluated the economic analysis of treatments with FCM in iron-deficient patients with HF. The CHEERS scores for most of the studies (n = 6) were 0.77 or higher (very good quality). The lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) of FCM ($1801.96) was from Italy, and the highest ICER per QALY of FCM ($25,981.28) South Korea. Results of the studies showed that FCM, compared to placebo, was cost-effective in iron-deficient patients with HF.

CONCLUSION

FCM is a cost-effective treatment for iron-deficient patients with HF. Considering the fact that all the included studies in the present systematic review took place in high-income countries, we recommend further studies investigating the cost-effectiveness of FCM in low- and middle-income countries.

Safety and Effectiveness of Endodermal Radiofrequency for Skin Rejuvenation: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

With the advent of new technologies, the demand for non-invasive and effective procedures to treat skin laxity has increased. In this research, we aimed to review studies conducted on the safety and effectiveness of endodermal radiofrequency (ER) for skin rejuvenation.

METHODS

We searched the databases of Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar from 2000 to 2020 to conduct a systematic review based on the PRISMA statement. Screening of titles, abstracts, and full-text articles was performed independently by two reviewers according to inclusion and exclusion criteria.

RESULTS

This study showed that ER resulted in improvement in wrinkles and sagging, reduction of fat, tightening of skin of the face, neck, and jawline, improvement in skin elasticity, pigmentation, contouring of the body, and epidermal thickness decrease. ER technology leads to a significant and satisfactory improvement in skin rejuvenation, lower contouring of skin of the face and neck, as well as patients' satisfaction. Side effects of ER are temporary, and usually disappear spontaneously after a few days to one month.

CONCLUSION

Cosmetic services providers can use this effective and safe technology to treat skin laxity and skin rejuvenation as a substitute for surgery. Level of evidence III This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Factors associated with health-related quality of life in patients with Crohn's disease in Iran: A prospective observational study

This was a 1-year prospective observational study of the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of moderate to severe crohn's disease (CD) patients in Iran. Patients' HRQoL were measured using the EQ-5D 3L, EQ-VAS, and IBDQ-9 tools. HRQoL among CD patients were compared using the T-test, Mann-Whitney, Chi-square, and Fisher's exact tests. To discover factors influencing patients' HRQoL, multivariate linear regression and multivariate logistic regression tests were utilized. The study included 222 CD patients, with a mean age of 34.67 and mean disease duration of 7.32 years. The dimensions with the worst reported "relatively or extreme problems" were P/D: 77.5% and A/D: 63.1%. Employment, having "other chronic diseases," and ADA consumption were the most important independent predictors of HRQoL in CD patients, [β = 0.21 (EQ-5D index), β = 19.61 (EQ-VAS), β = 12.26 (IBDQ-9), OR: 0.09 (MO), OR: 0.12 (UA), OR: 0.21 (P/D), OR: 0.22 (A/D)], [β = -0.15 (EQ-5D index), β = -5.84 (IBDQ-9), β = -11.06 (EQ-VAS), OR: 4.20 (MO), OR: 6.50 (UA)], and [OR: 2.29 (A/D)], respectively. Unemployment, presence of "other chronic conditions" had the greatest negative impact on HRQoL of CD patients. There were significant differences in the probability of reporting "relatively or extreme problems" in the SC and A/D dimensions between patients using adalimumab (ADA) and infliximab (IFX).

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Willingness to Pay for Down Syndrome Screening: A systematics Review

Background:Financial ability to pay has a unique role in the accessibility of health care services, which indicates the necessity of raising enough funds by governments. However, how much households are willing to pay (WTP) for receiving a particular service? And what factors influence their WTP? The current systematic review aimed to, firstly, review studies on the WTP for Down syndrome (DS) screening, and, secondly, to identify factors that affect WTP for DS screening. Methods:We systematically searched the Scopus, PubMed, Web of Sciences (ISI), and Embase databases to identify relevant studies from their inception to June 2020; the search strategy was updated on December 2021. Initially, 157 articles were identified, and 5 were found eligible for full-text review. In event of any disagreement, a third reviewer was used. Extracted WTPs were converted to US dollars in 2018 using exchange rate parity and the present value formula to make a comparison. The quality assessment of the selected studies was done using the "Lancsar and Louvier" and Smith checklist; also, vote counting was used to assess the influence of factors. Results:Five eligible studies, published from 2005 to 2020, were fully reviewed. All final studies were scored as good quality. The extracted WTPs varied from $169 to $1118 in UK and Canada, respectively. Income and information/knowledge about screening tests were the most frequently investigated factors. Education level, detection rate, women's age, cost, and family history were significantly associated with higher levels of WTP for DS screening. Conclusion:This study demonstrated a significant gap in WTP for DS screening in various countries. Women are WTP higher costs for tests with higher screenings. Also, a unique role was identified for income, occupation, information, and family history of DS in WTP for DS screening. In addition, a positive association was found for the variable of age.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Economic Evaluation of Palliative Care for Patients with Cancer Disease: A Systematic Review

Background: With the increase in the population of cancer patients and the importance of reducing the economic burden of disease, it is very important to offer solutions that can provide the services needed by this group of patients in the most appropriate way. In recent years, palliative care services have been provided in a wide range of countries for this purpose, and many studies have been conducted to assess its economic and clinical aspects. The current study aimed to systematically review economic evaluation studies that investigate the costs of end-of-life care for cancer patients. Methods: Electronic search was performed in multiple databases and different resources between 2000-2021 based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Inclusion criteria were Studies consisting of a complete EE, including CEA, CUA, and CBA regarding the EE of palliative care for patients with cancer disease, EE studies carried out by decision analysis models following the EE approach, full-text articles in the English language, and published during 2000 and 2021 and According to our search strategy, the following articles were removed: studies conducted as a partial EE (like those intended to evaluate the effectiveness, cost evaluation, QoL evaluation), articles with poor methodological quality based on the CHEERS checklist, non-English studies, study protocols, articles presented to a conference, and letters to the editor. The quality of the articles was evaluated using a CHEERS checklist. Results: 29 studies were included based on inclusion criteria. Most articles were published during the past decade. All studies were performed in high-income countries (UK= 6 studies, Canada= 5 studies). Most studies (n=7) focused on the health sector. Results of quality evaluation showed that 10 articles had excellent quality (score higher than 85%). Most studies (27 out of 29 studies) concluded that palliative medicine interventions were cost-effective and yielded positive cost-effectiveness results. 20 studies confidently concluded about the costs and benefits of providing palliative care services on cost-effectiveness and cost savings, and 2 studies made such a conclusion with uncertainty. Therefore, palliative care for cancer patients is cost-effective or cost-saving in 85% of studies. Conclusion: Although there are a wide variety of studies, characteristics, and quality of the final studies included in the present study, there are relatively favorable and stable patterns regarding the results. Palliative care is usually less expensive than comparator groups, and the cost difference is statistically significant in most cases, and this treatment is a relatively cost-effective option. However, making the right relevant decision and applying it as a dominant therapy approach in different countries requires further study in larger populations and over a longer period.

Iran's Struggling Health System in the Policy of Managing the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Infectious diseases are one of the most important problems that affect the whole world. The World Health Organization (WHO), an active health organization, has identified coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) as a public health emergency and advises governments not to waste time on effective measures and interventions to attack and suppress the virus. In Iran, so far, the total number of screening tests has exceeded 21 million tests and more than 5 million doses of vaccine have been injected. However, we are still far from controlling the epidemic wave. Given the current situation, it is necessary to identify the challenges of managing the new coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) in the country's medical universities.

METHODS

This qualitative study was conducted from January 2020 to January 2021 to explore the views of a group of service providers and staff managers of medical universities who were selected via purposeful sampling (n = 47). Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed using Graneheim and Lundman's conventional content analysis methods. The trial version of MAXQDA 16 software was used to manage the coding process.

RESULTS

Upon analysis of data by service providers and staff managers of medical universities, five main themes including governance and leadership, service delivery, human resources, medicine and technology, and financing and 15 sub-themes including management and leadership, culture and society, process, infrastructure, manpower, training and skills, mental pressure, work pressure, nutrition, safety, employee motivation, medical equipment, medicine, payment, and funds were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Identification of the most important challenges of service providers and staff managers can play an important role in improving the management of the new coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19). It seems that in order to solve some of these challenges, coordination is needed outside the field of health, and considering the formation of the National Corona Headquarters at the national level, it is possible to use this infrastructure to provide the necessary policies and strategies.

Cost-Effectiveness of Sacubitril/Valsartan Compared with Enalapril in Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction: A Systematic Review

Background

To assess the cost-effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan compared with enalapril in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection (HFrEF).

Methods

A systematic literature search was conducted searching in major electronic databases from inception to January 1, 2021. All relevant full economic evaluation studies of sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril for the treatment of patients with HFrEF were identified using ad hoc search strategies. Mortality, hospital admissions, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), life-years (LYQs), annual drug costs, total lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were considered as the outcomes. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the CHEERS checklist. This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the "Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses" (PRISMA) guidelines.

Results

The initial search yielded a pool of 1026 articles, of which 703 unique articles were screened, 65 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility and 15 studies finally included in the qualitative synthesis. Studies show that sacubitril/valsartan reduces mortality and hospitalization rate. The mean of death risk ratio and hospitalization were computed at 0.843 and 0.844, respectively. Sacubitril/valsartan produced higher annual and total lifetime costs. The lowest and highest lifetime costs for sacubitril/valsartan were found in Thailand ($4,756) and Germany ($118,815), respectively. The lowest ICER was reported in Thailand ($4857/QALY) and the highest in the USA ($143,891/QALY).

Conclusion

Sacubitril/valsartan is associated with better outcomes and may be cost-effective compared to enalapril for the management of HFrEF. However, in developing countries such as Thailand, sacubitril-valsartan costs must be reduced to yield an ICER below the threshold.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Economic evaluation of single-photon emission-computed tomography versus stress echocardiography in stable chest pain patients

The timely diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) is an important medical problem. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of Single-Photon Emission-Computed Tomography (SPECT) compared with stress echocardiography in stable chest pain patients. An economic evaluation study was conducted to assess the cost-effectiveness of SPECT versus stress echocardiography in stable chest pain patients without known CAD between April 1, 2017, and September 1, 2018 in Tehran, Iran. This study was performed from a societal perspective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated using a decision tree model. In addition, the robustness of results was examined by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. This study showed that the expected cost and expected QALY for Stress echocardiography was $1106.75 and 0.83 respectively. Also, SPECT had expected cost and expected QALY equal to $1622.39 and 0.80 respectively. Finally, Stress echocardiography was the dominant strategy for CAD, with a lower cost and greater effectiveness than SPECT. The stress echocardiography can saved $18,528.17 per QALY. A deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the results. Stress echocardiography was a more cost-effective method for diagnosing CAD disease in stable chest pain patients without known CAD compared to SPECT.

A Systematic Review on the Economic Evaluations Evidence of Enhanced External Counter-Pulsation (EECP) for Managing Chronic Stable Angina

Background: Chronic Stable Angina (CSA) does not respond to clinical interventions always. Therefore, enhanced external counter pulsation (EECP) has been approved by the Food and Administration Drug (FDA) as an effective technology. This study aimed to synthesize evidence on the economic evaluation of EECP in managing CSA through a systematic approach. Methods: In this systematic review study, PubMed/Medline, Cochrane Library, Web of Sciences, Scopus, National Institute for Health Research Journals Library, and the University of York Centre for Review and Dissemination (CRD) were searched. The targeted population was people who suffered from CSA, and the main therapeutic intervention was EECP. The comparators were not limited to any particular ones. Outcomes were changes in the Canadian Cardiovascular Society grading of angina pectoris, quality of life, and any other investigated relevant outcomes in the retrieved studies. The quality of studies was assessed through Philips et al and Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal tools. We synthesized data through a narrative approach. Results: We retrieved 7821 studies; among which 3 studies were included in the final phase. Two studies were systematic reviews and the Markov model economic evaluation. Another study was a partial economic evaluation. Conclusion: All studies only considered direct costs. EECP is a cost-effective technology in managing CSA, however, the sensitivity analysis of the studies showed the cost-effectiveness ratio is varied considerably and further studies are needed to extrapolate its economic value.

Adalimumab versus Infliximab Treatment Outcome in Ulcerative Colitis: Application of EQ-5D, Visual Analogue Scale, and IBDQ-9 Measures: A Prospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic global disease, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing worldwide.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to compare the secondary outcome of treatment with Infliximab (IFX) and Adalimumab (ADA) in the UC patients.

METHODS

This was a one-year prospective observational study of moderate- to -severe UC patients treated with ADA or IFX. Patients' secondary health outcomes were measured using the EQ-5D 3L, EQ-VAS, and IBDQ-9 tools. T-test, Mann-Whitney, chi-square, and Fisher's exact tests were used to compare health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among UC patients. HRQoL predictor variables were identified by multivariate linear regression and multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 238 UC patients (patients taking IFX: 78, patients taking ADA: 160) with a mean age of 37.66 and a mean disease duration of 9.29 years were enrolled. The EQ-5D index, EQ-VAS, and IBDQ-9 scores of patients taking IFX were 0.65, 55.93 and, 37.42, respectively. Similarly, patients taking ADA were 0.68, 59.27 and, 36.61, respectively. The highest problem reports were in P/D: 86.1% and A/D: 73.5%. The main independent predictors of HRQoL were: education over 12 years (β = 0.054 [EQ-5D index], β = 13.63 [EQ-VAS], OR: 0.28 [MO], OR: 0.07 [SC]), education between 6-12 years (β = 11.23 [EQ-VAS]), and having "other chronic diseases" (β = -0.074 [EQ-5D index], β = -5.29 [IBDQ-9], OR: 2.84 [UA], OR: 3.80 [A/D]).

CONCLUSION

There was no significant difference between the effect of ADA and IFX on secondary health outcomes in patients with moderate-to-severe UC.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-effectiveness of fixed-dose combination pill (Polypill) in primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease: A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

A significant proportion of cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality could be prevented via the population-based and cost-effective interventions. A fixed-dose combination treatment is known as the polypill for the primary and secondary prevention of CVD has come up in recent years.

PURPOSE

In order to provide recommendations for future economic evaluations, this systematic review aimed to review and assess the quality of published evidence on the cost-effectiveness of polypill in primary and secondary prevention of CVD, to identify the key drivers that impact the cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

A systematic review of literature, following the PRISMA guidelines, was undertaken in the electronic databases. Two researchers identified the relevant studies according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist was used to quality assessment of included studies. ICERs value adjusted to 2020 United States Dollar using consumer price index (CPI) and purchasing power parity (PPP). Finally, data were summarized via a narrative synthesis.

RESULTS

In total, 24 articles were identified based on the determined inclusion criteria. All studies met more than 50% of the CHEERS criteria. Adjusted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios varied from 24$ to 31000$(2020 US dollar) among the studies. The polypill resulted in the improved adherence and quality of life, at a price equal to or lower than multiple monotherapies. This price is typically below the commonly accepted thresholds or cost saving in both, primary and secondary prevention of CVD. The main identified cost-effectiveness drivers were the polypill price, adherence, age, CVD risk, and drug combination.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review found that the polypill seemed to be a cost-effective intervention in primary and secondary prevention of CVD. However, it is necessary to conduct more economic evaluation studies based on the long-term clinical trials with large populations. Also, studies should consider how the polypill interacts with other primary and secondary preventive strategies as a complementary health strategy.

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990-2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.

METHODS

We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure-response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68-4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117-223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49-17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73-17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22-9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81-8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5.

INTERPRETATION

Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Economic evaluation of medical versus surgical strategies for first trimester therapeutic abortion: A systematic review

Pregnancy termination and abortion-related complications are well-established problems among women at reproductive age and resulted in significant morbidity and mortality. Accordingly, a systematic study was performed to investigate the economic evaluation studies results on costs and benefits of medical and surgical abortion methods. PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, Cochrane library, ProQuest, and ScienceDirect databases as well as Google scholar were searched through June 2021. Original full-text English language studies that performed an economic evaluation analysis comparing medical and surgical methods of pregnancy termination were included in this review. A critical quality assessment was conducted utilizing the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Standards checklist. The latest web-based tool adjusted the estimates of costs expressed in one specific currency and price year into a specific target currency (the year 2020 $US). Overall, 538 records were retrieved, and 20 studies were deemed eligible for qualitative synthesis. Among the reviewed studies, three studies investigated cost-minimization analysis, three studies investigated cost-utility analysis, and 14 studies investigated cost-effectiveness analysis. The directly comparison of medical with surgical abortion was most frequently studied. Medical abortion saved US$ 6 to US$ 2373 per patient's costs. Medical abortion was cost-effective and cost-saving option in compare to the surgical abortion across all perspectives (the incremental cost effectiveness ratio ranged from US$ 419 to US$ 4,044). Quality scores of included studies ranged from 54% to 100%, and 70% of studies received a score of above 85% and had "excellent" quality. According to the results, based on various economic and clinical effectiveness decision-making criteria used in different studies of health economic evaluation, the majority of research provided evidence on the advantage of pharmaceutical methods compared to surgical methods, as well as the advantages of using combinations therapy compared to single therapeutic interventions.

Women's Preference for Cervical Cancer Screening Methods in Iran: A Contingent Valuation Survey

Background: Cervical cancer is the fifth most deadly cancer in women in Iran. The present study aimed to investigate the monetary value of cervical cancer screening benefits from a social perspective. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 480 women aged 30 to 59 years in Mazandaran province, Iran, from 2020-21. The willingness to pay (WTP) for screening tests- Pap smear and simultaneous tests- was investigated using a researcher-made questionnaire based on the contingent valuation method (CVM) in 2 separate sample groups. The first group received basic information regarding cervical cancer (Scenario 1), while the second received complementary information in addition to basic knowledge (Scenario 2). Multivariate regression was applied to examine factors affecting WTP and the difference between the mean WTP in 2 scenarios was analyzed by a t-test. Results: The mean WTP of Pap smear and simultaneous tests was estimated at US$135.08 and US$160.19, respectively. There were significant and negative relationships between age and household size with the WTP of the Pap smear test. The number of people with income, household expenses, a chronic illness, and suggested base price indicated significant and positive effects on WTP of the Pap smear test. The number of people with income and household expenses showed significant and positive relationships with the WTP of simultaneous tests. There was no significant difference between the mean WTP of each group and the demand for screening tests was not elastic. Conclusion: The mean WTP of screening tests is notable when compared to their cost, demonstrating the need of concentrating on screening programs.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

Cost-Effectiveness of Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Targeted Biopsy Versus Systematic Transrectal Ultrasound-Guided Biopsy for Prostate Cancer Diagnosis: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to systematically review the cost-effectiveness studies of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI)-guided biopsy (MRGB) compared with systematic transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS)-guided biopsy for diagnosing prostate cancer (PCa).

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science core collection, Embase and Scopus, and reference lists of the included studies were searched with no date and language restrictions through January 2020 for full economic evaluation studies (cost-effectiveness, cost-utility analysis, cost-benefit analysis) that assessed mpMRI and MRGB compared with systematic TRUS-guided biopsy or other sequential biopsy strategies in men undergoing initial prostate biopsy or men with previous negative prostate biopsy, with clinical suspicion of PCa based on abnormal prostate-specific antigen or digital rectal examination increase or both. Data were tabulated and analyzed using narrative synthesis. The reporting quality of included studies was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist. This systematic review was performed in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement.

RESULTS

Finally, 9 studies were included. All studies were conducted in high-income countries. All studies found that mpMRI and MRGB was cost-effective in the initial and before repeat biopsy in men with previous negative biopsy. The cognitive-targeted TRUS-guided biopsy was cost-effective in the initial biopsy (dominant or cost-effective at willingness-to-pay threshold of the countries); it was not evaluated for repeat biopsy in men. The direct in-bore magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-guided biopsy was cost-effective for the initial biopsy (€323 per quality-adjusted life-year gained). The superiority of one of the targeted biopsy approaches (fusion, cognitive, or in-bore) over other approaches has not yet been established.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that pre-TRUS-guided biopsy MRI is more cost-effective than TRUS-guided biopsy alone. Furthermore, the use of MRI-ultrasound fusion targeted biopsy in the diagnosis of PCa in the initial biopsy and repeat biopsy and cognitive-targeted TRUS-guided biopsy in the initial biopsy is cost-effective.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

The cost-effectiveness of B-type natriuretic peptide-guided care in compared to standard clinical assessment in outpatients with heart failure in Tehran, Iran

BACKGROUND

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is commonly used as a diagnostic method for patients with heart failure. This study was designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of BNP compared to standard clinical assessment in outpatients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in Tehran, Iran.

METHODS

This study was a cost-effectiveness analysis carried on 400 HFrEF outpatients > 45 years who were admitted to Rasoul Akram General Hospital of Tehran, Iran. A Markov model with a lifetime horizon was developed to evaluate economic and clinical outcomes for BNP and standard clinical assessment. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), direct, and indirect costs collected from the patients.

RESULTS

The results of this study indicated that mean QALYs and cost were estimated to be 2.18 QALYs and $1835 for BNP and 2.07 and $2376 for standard clinical assessment, respectively. In terms of reducing costs and increasing QALYs, BNP was dominant compared to standard clinical assessment. Also, BNP had an 85% probability of being cost-effective versus standard clinical assessment if the willingness to pay threshold is higher than $20,800/QALY gained.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of the present study, measuring BNP levels represents good value for money, decreasing costs and increasing QALYs compared to standard clinical assessment. It is suggested that the costs of the BNP test be covered by insurance in Iran. The result of the current study has important implications for policymakers in developing clinical guidelines for the diagnosis of heart failure.

Private Demand for Covid-19 Vaccine: A Contingent Assessment from a Low-and Middle-income Country

This study aimed to estimate Iranian willingness to pay (WTP) for a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine and its determinants. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted from May 2^nd to 20^th, 2020 among the general population of Iran to estimate WTP for hypothetical COVID-19 vaccines. Four scenarios with different levels of efficacy and duration of protection were presented to respondents in the payment card scale of the contingent valuation method (CVM). With the corresponding WTPs under different scenarios, mean, trimmed mean, median WTP values, and vaccine demand was estimated. A semi-log regression model was employed to identify key factors. The vaccine acceptance rate and positive WTP were about 70% and 80%, respectively. The reluctant individuals believed free vaccination is a government responsibility. The highest trimmed mean and median WTP values were the US $15 and $4 for the vaccine with more than 80% efficacy and one-time vaccination. The median decreased to the US $2 in less effective scenarios. The vaccine demand was price-inelastic. Price, self-assessment virus risk, age, gender, education, income, and working in the health sector were significant factors. Given the price inelasticity of the COVID-19 vaccine, providing free vaccination by the Iranian government is highly recommended, particularly for low-income and vulnerable individuals.

Cost-effectiveness of osimertinib in the treatment of advanced EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The most common type of lung cancer is advanced and mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Although targeted tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) have reconstructed the care of these patients, the resistance of TKIs to the secondary EGFR-T790M mutation in advanced or metastatic NSCLC led to the introduction of the third generation of them, like osimertinib. Osimertinib has represented a remarkable increase in progression-free survival (PFS) and a decrease in death and hazard ratios in patients with required T790 mutation and sensitizing EGFR mutation without T790M. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of osimertinib for the treatment of these patients compared to chemotherapy or immunotherapy with the last generations of EGFR-TKIs.

AREAS COVERED

Electronic searches were conducted on PubMed, Embase, Science Direct, Scopus, , Web of Knowledge, NHSEED, NHS Health Technology assessment (CRD), and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry databases. Related articles were reviewed from January 2015 to the end of August 2020. Out of 2708 initial studies, 10 articles had the inclusion criteria.

EXPERT OPINION

Although osimertinib improves the quality of life and PFS for the mentioned patients based on its greater efficacy compared to standard EGFR-TKIs and chemotherapy, its high cost prevents considering it a cost-effective option. And, since most entered studies have been done in developed countries, it certainly does not true to extend these results to low-income and developing countries. Therefore, further studies in those countries are needed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of osimertinib for sensitizing EGFR mutation without T790M and required T790M in advanced or metastatic NSCLC.

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions against COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Non-Pharmaceutical Public Health Interventions (NPHIs) have been used by different countries to control the spread of the COVID-19. Despite available evidence regarding the effectiveness of NPHSs, there is still no consensus about how policymakers can trust these results. Studies on the effectiveness of NPHSs are single studies conducted in specific communities. Therefore, they cannot individually prove if these interventions have been effective in reducing the spread of the infection and its adverse health outcomes. In this systematic review, we aimed to examine the effects of NPHIs on the COVID-19 case growth rate, death growth rate, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, and reproduction number in countries, where NPHIs have been implemented. We searched relevant electronic databases, including Medline (via PubMed), Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science, etc. from late December 2019 to February 1, 2021. The key terms were primarily drawn from Medical Subject Heading (MeSh and Emtree), literature review, and opinions of experts. Peer-reviewed quasi-experimental studies were included in the review. The PROSPERO registration number is CRD42020186855. Interventions were NPHIs categorized as lockdown, stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and other interventions (mask-wearing, contact tracing, and school closure). We used PRISMA 2020 guidance for abstracting the data and used Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Practice (EPOC) Risk of Bias Tool for quality appraisal of the studies. Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random-effects model was performed. Main outcomes included COVID-19 case growth rate (percentage daily changes), COVID-19 mortality growth rate (percentage daily changes), COVID-19 ICU admission (percentage daily changes), and COVID-19 reproduction number changes. Our search strategies in major databases yielded 12,523 results, which decreased to 7,540 articles after eliminating duplicates. Finally, 35 articles qualified to be included in the systematic review among which 23 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Although studies were from both low-income and high-income countries, the majority of them were from the United States (13 studies) and China (five studies). Results of the meta-analysis showed that adoption of NPHIs has resulted in a 4.68% (95% CI, -6.94 to -2.78) decrease in daily case growth rates, 4.8% (95 CI, -8.34 to -1.40) decrease in daily death growth rates, 1.90 (95% CI, -2.23 to -1.58) decrease in the COVID-19 reproduction number, and 16.5% (95% CI, -19.68 to -13.32) decrease in COVID-19 daily ICU admission. A few studies showed that, early enforcement of lockdown, when the incidence rate is not high, contributed to a shorter duration of lockdown and a lower increase of the case growth rate in the post-lockdown era. The majority of NPHIs had positive effects on restraining the COVID-19 spread. With the problems that remain regarding universal access to vaccines and their effectiveness and considering the drastic impact of the nationwide lockdown and other harsh restrictions on the economy and people's life, such interventions should be mitigated by adopting other NPHIs such as mass mask-wearing, patient/suspected case isolation strategies, and contact tracing. Studies need to address the impact of NPHIs on the population's other health problems than COVID-19.