Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of high-dose Spirulina supplementation on hospitalized adults with COVID-19: a randomized controlled trial

Objective

Spirulina (arthrospira platensis) is a cyanobacterium proven to have anti-inflammatory, antiviral, and antioxidant effects. However, the effect of high-dose Spirulina supplementation on hospitalized adults with COVID-19 is currently unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of high-dose Spirulina platensis for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Study Design

We conducted a randomized, controlled, open-label trial involving 189 patients with COVID-19 who were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to an experimental group that received 15.2g of Spirulina supplement plus standard treatment (44 non-intensive care unit (non-ICU) and 47 ICU), or to a control group that received standard treatment alone (46 non-ICU and 52 ICU). The study was conducted over six days. Immune mediators were monitored on days 1, 3, 5, and 7. The primary outcome of this study was mortality or hospital discharge within seven days, while the overall discharge or mortality was considered the secondary outcome.

Results

Within seven days, there were no deaths in the Spirulina group, while 15 deaths (15.3%) occurred in the control group. Moreover, within seven days, there was a greater number of patients discharged in the Spirulina group (97.7%) in non-ICU compared to the control group (39.1%) (HR, 6.52; 95% CI, 3.50 to 12.17). Overall mortality was higher in the control group (8.7% non-ICU, 28.8% ICU) compared to the Spirulina group (non-ICU HR, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.97; ICU, HR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.48). In non-ICU, patients who received Spirulina showed a significant reduction in the levels of IL-6, TNF-α, IL-10, and IP-10 as intervention time increased. Furthermore, in ICU, patients who received Spirulina showed a significant decrease in the levels of MIP-1α and IL-6. IFN-γ levels were significantly higher in the intervention group in both ICU and non-ICU subgroups as intervention time increased. No side effects related to Spirulina supplements were observed during the trial.

Conclusion

High-dose Spirulina supplements coupled with the standard treatment of COVID-19 may improve recovery and remarkably reduce mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Clinical Trial Registration

https://irct.ir/trial/54375, Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials number (IRCT20210216050373N1).

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by glaucoma: A meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

OBJECTIVES

To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by glaucoma and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and grey literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends in number of people with vision loss due to glaucoma. Moderate or severe vision loss (MSVI) was defined as visual acuity of 6/60 or better but <6/18 (moderate) and visual acuity of 3/60 or better but <6/60 (severe vision loss). Blindness was defined as presenting visual acuity <3/60.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2020, 3.61 million people were blind and nearly 4.14 million were visually impaired by glaucoma. Glaucoma accounted for 8.39% (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]: 6.54, 10.29) of all blindness and 1.41% (95% UI: 1.10, 1.75) of all MSVI. Regionally, the highest proportion of blindness relating to glaucoma was found in high-income countries (26.12% [95% UI: 20.72, 32.09]), while the region with the highest age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness and MSVI was Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2020, global age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness among adults ≥50 years decreased by 26.06% among males (95% UI: 25.87, 26.24), and by 21.75% among females (95% UI: 21.54, 21.96), while MSVI due to glaucoma increased by 3.7% among males (95% UI: 3.42, 3.98), and by 7.3% in females (95% UI: 7.01, 7.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Within the last two decades, glaucoma has remained a major cause of blindness globally and regionally.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of heroin-assisted treatment in Norway: protocol for a mixed methods study

BACKGROUND

Opioid agonist treatment (OAT) for patients with opioid use disorder (OUD) has a convincing evidence base, although variable retention rates suggest that it may not be beneficial for all. One of the options to include more patients is the introduction of heroin-assisted treatment (HAT), which involves the prescribing of pharmaceutical heroin in a clinical supervised setting. Clinical trials suggest that HAT positively affects illicit drug use, criminal behavior, quality of life, and health. The results are less clear for longer-term outcomes such as mortality, level of function and social integration. This protocol describes a longitudinal evaluation of the introduction of HAT into the OAT services in Norway over a 5-year period. The main aim of the project is to study the individual, organizational and societal effects of implementing HAT in the specialized healthcare services for OUD.

METHODS

The project adopts a multidisciplinary approach, where the primary cohort for analysis will consist of approximately 250 patients in Norway, observed during the period of 2022-2026. Cohorts for comparative analysis will include all HAT-patients in Denmark from 2010 to 2022 (N = 500) and all Norwegian patients in conventional OAT (N = 8300). Data comes from individual in-depth and semi-structured interviews, self-report questionnaires, clinical records, and national registries, collected at several time points throughout patients' courses of treatment. Qualitative analyses will use a flexible inductive thematic approach. Quantitative analyses will employ a wide array of methods including bi-variate parametric and non-parametric tests, and various forms of multivariate modeling.

DISCUSSION

The project's primary strength lies in its comprehensive and longitudinal approach. It has the potential to reveal new insights on whether pharmaceutical heroin should be an integral part of integrated conventional OAT services to individually tailor treatments for patients with OUD. This could affect considerations about drug treatment even beyond HAT-specific topics, where an expanded understanding of why some do not succeed with conventional OAT will strengthen the knowledge base for drug treatment in general. Results will be disseminated to the scientific community, clinicians, and policy makers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was approved by the Norwegian Regional Committee for Medical and Health Research Ethics (REK), ref.nr.:195733.

Prevalence and correlates of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose among adults in Afghanistan: Insights from a national survey

Objectives

Afghanistan is experiencing an escalating burden of noncommunicable diseases, with diabetes and impaired fasting glucose being of particular concern. To explore the prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose and associated factors among adult Afghans.

Methods

This cross-sectional study used secondary data from a nationally representative survey, conducted in 2018 in Afghanistan. A blood sample was collected from the fingertip and tested through a strip to measure blood glucose. The complex sampling design and sampling weights were accounted for in all analyses to produce representative estimates of the target population in Afghanistan.

Results

Of 3890 Afghan adults aged 18-69 years who participated in this survey, 11.07% and 10.32% had diabetes and impaired fasting glucose, respectively. For overweight individuals with abdominal obesity, the risk for diabetes became significantly elevated, with an adjusted relative risk ratio of 2.12 (95% CI: 1.10-4.09). However, the most pronounced effect was observed among individuals classified as having obesity with abdominal obesity with an adjusted relative risk ratio of 2.54 (95% CI: 1.37-4.70). Moreover, high cholesterol level was significantly associated with both impaired fasting glucose (ARRR: 2.52, 95% CI: 1.55-4.12) and diabetes (ARRR: 4.12, 95% CI: 2.59-6.56), whereas high blood pressure was significantly associated with only diabetes (ARRR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.16-2.86).

Conclusions

This investigation provides critical insight into the prevalence of diabetes and IFG among Afghan adults aged 18-69 years. Relative to the global average, the higher prevalence observed calls for specifically designed interventions targeting individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, such as elevated body mass index, abdominal obesity, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Predictor of smoking cessation among school-going adolescents in Indonesia: a secondary analysis based on the transtheoretical model of behavioral change

Introduction

This study elucidates the complex journey of adolescents toward smoking cessation, investigating the association of relevant demographic factors, advertising, promotion, anti-cigarette messages, and individual knowledge and attitudes with being in different smoking cessation stages.

Methods

Utilizing data from the 2019 Indonesia Global Youth Tobacco Survey, this secondary analysis included adolescents who reported ever smoking. The Transtheoretical Model (TTM) guided the categorization of the outcome variable into three smoking cessation stages based on the responses to two questions related to the intention and timing of the smoking cessation. This included contemplation, action, and maintenance stages. Multinomial logistic regression analyzed the associations between each independent variable and being in each stage of smoking cessation. The study comprised 3596 Indonesian adolescents from grades 7-12, of which 2484 responded to two questions related to intention and timing of smoking cessation and were included in regression analysis.

Results

Findings indicate that males and those aged ≥16 were predominantly in contemplation phase. Early smoking initiation, usage of other tobacco products, and exposure to various forms of smoke increased the likelihood of being in contemplation and action phases. Parental smoking, school smoking exposure, and second-hand smoke were significant contemplation phase predictors. Exposure to tobacco advertising was linked to an increased likelihood of being in contemplation and action phases, whereas anti-cigarette messages showed no significant impact. Awareness of cigarette and second-hand smoke harms reduced the odds of being in the contemplation phase, while enjoying smoking and willingness to accept cigarettes from friends increased the odds of being in contemplation and action phases rather than in maintenance phase.

Conclusion

Addressing age, gender, cultural influences, environmental factors, and attitudes towards smoking through tailored interventions is vital for aiding smoking cessation in Indonesian adolescents. Strengthened tobacco control in schools and public places is recommended to bolster these efforts. Longitudinal studies are required to explore the evolving patterns of smoking cessation behaviors over time, enhancing our understanding of the factors influencing sustained cessation.

Comparison of Omicron and Delta Variants of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review of Current Evidence

INTRODUCTION

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in late 2019 in Wuhan, China. In early 2020, the disease spread rapidly around the world. Since the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has evolved dramatically into a wide variety of variants endowed with devastating properties. As of March 6, 2022, five SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron strains have been identified. Due to the crucial importance of understanding the differences between the Omicron and Delta variants, this systematic review was conducted.

METHODS

This systematic review investigated new variants of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 based on cur-rent studies. Online databases were searched for English articles as of January 03, 2023. Selection of publications was a two-step process of title/abstract and full-text assessment against eligibility crite-ria. The relevant data from the included articles were systematically collected and organized in a designed table for analysis. To ensure the quality of the review, the PRISMA checklist and Newcas-tle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) of quality assessment were utilized.

RESULTS

The data extracted from 58 articles were analyzed, including 10003 pieces of evidence. Lower risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality after vaccination were reported in the Omicron variant compared to the Delta variant. Additionally, the Delta variant led to more severe clinical symptoms in comparison to the Omicron variant.

CONCLUSION

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 results in less severe disease outcomes as com-pared to Delta. Nevertheless, it remains crucial to maintain ongoing monitoring, implement contain-ment measures, and adapt vaccination protocols to effectively address the evolving variants.

Traditional, cyberbullying, and suicidal behaviors in Argentinian adolescents: the protective role of school, parental, and peer connectedness

Introduction

Bullying, both in person and online, is a significant risk factor for a range of negative outcomes including suicidal behaviors among adolescents and it is crucial to explore the protective effects of parental, school, and peer connectedness on suicidal behaviors among victims.

Methods

This study is a secondary analysis of the Argentina Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS 2018). Logistic regression analysis, adjusting for age and sex, determines the likelihood of suicidal thoughts and attempts among bullying victims. To explore the modifying effect of school, parental, and peer connectedness on the association between bullying and suicide behaviors, the interaction term was included. Sampling design and weights were applied in all analyses in STATA 17.

Results

The study included 56,783 students in grades 8-12, with over half being female. Adolescents aged 14-15 exhibited the highest prevalence of bullying, cyberbullying, suicidal thoughts, and attempts, with females displaying a higher prevalence in all measured categories. The study found that adolescents who reported being bullied or cyberbullied demonstrated a significantly higher likelihood of experiencing suicidal thoughts and attempting suicide. Furthermore, protective factors such as school, parental, and peer connectedness were found to play a critical role in mitigating the adverse impacts of bullying and cyberbullying on suicidal thoughts and attempts.

Conclusion

The findings underscore the critical prevalence of both bullying and cyberbullying among school-going Argentinian adolescents and their profound association with suicidal behaviors. The study emphasizes the importance of supportive family environments and peer and school connectedness in mitigating the negative effects of bullying and cyberbullying on mental health and suicide risk among adolescents.

Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

METHODS

Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9-42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Perceived discrimination and its association with self-rated health, chronic pain, mental health, and utilization of health services among Syrian refugees in Norway: a cross-sectional study

Background

There is a scarcity of research on discriminatory experiences and their association with health outcomes among Syrian Refugees in Norway. Thus, this study aims to examine the relationship between perceived discrimination, self-rated health (SRH), chronic pain, poor mental health, and healthcare utilization among Syrian refugees resettled in Norway.

Methods

Cross-sectional data from the Integration for Health project were analyzed, including 154 Syrian refugees who resettled in Norway in 2018-19. Perceived discrimination, SRH, chronic pain, psychological distress, post-traumatic stress symptoms, and healthcare visits were assessed. Statistical analyses, including Poisson regression and multinomial logistic regression, were conducted. The significant statistical level was set at 0.05.

Results

Approximately 30% of participants reported experiencing discrimination, with no significant associations between sociodemographic factors and perceived discrimination. Perceived discrimination was significantly associated with psychological distress (adjusted PR: 2.07, 95%CI: 1.21-3.55), post-traumatic stress symptoms (adjusted PR: 11.54, 95%CI: 1.25-106.16), and 4 or more psychologist visits (adjusted OR: 12.60, 95%CI: 1.72-92.16). However, no significant associations were found between perceived discrimination and SRH; pain symptoms, or general healthcare utilization.

Conclusion

Experienced discrimination is highly prevalent and seems to be associated with mental health outcomes, but not clearly with SRH, pain, or general healthcare visits among Syrian refugees living in Norway. Efforts should focus on reducing discrimination, promoting social inclusion, and improving access to mental health services for refugees. Public awareness campaigns, anti-discrimination policies, and cultural training for healthcare professionals are recommended to address these issues and improve the well-being of Syrian refugees in Norway.

Ocular manifestations of COVID-19: A systematic review of current evidence

Introduction

COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2, commonly presents with symptoms such as fever and shortness of breath but can also affect other organs. There is growing evidence pointing to potential eye complications. In this article, we aim to systematically review the ocular manifestations of COVID-19.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review to explore the ocular manifestations of COVID-19. We searched online databases including PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science up to September 4, 2023. After a two-stage screening process and applying inclusion/exclusion criteria, eligible articles were advanced to the data extraction phase. The PRISMA checklist and Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) were used for quality and bias risk assessments.

Results

We selected and extracted data from 42 articles. Most of the studies were cross-sectional (n = 33), with the highest number conducted in Turkey (n = 10). The most frequent ocular manifestation was conjunctivitis, reported in 24 articles, followed by photophobia, burning, chemosis, itching, and ocular pain. Most studies reported complete recovery from these manifestations; however, one study mentioned visual loss in two patients.

Conclusion

In general, ocular manifestations of COVID-19 appear to resolve either spontaneously or with supportive treatments. For more severe cases, both medical treatment and surgery have been employed, with the outcomes suggesting that complete recoveries are attainable.

The effect of macronutrient and micronutrient supplements on COVID-19: an umbrella review

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A healthy diet play an important role in the prevention and even treatment of various diseases. Proper nutrition plays an important role in boosting of immune system. These include the consumption of macronutrients such as proteins, lipids, carbohydrates, and also micronutrients including vitamins. Here, we aimed to systematically review the effects of macronutrients and micronutrients on the prevention and treatment of COVID-19.

METHODS

We searched the databases of PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science on December 23, 2023. The records were downloaded into an EndNote file, the duplicates were removed, and the studies underwent a two-phase screening process based on their title/abstracts and full texts. The included articles were screened and underwent inclusion and exclusion criteria. We included the English systematic reviews and meta-analyses that concurred with the aim of our study. The selected articles were assessed by Cochrane's Risk of Bias in Systematic Reviews for the quality check. The data of the eligible studies were extracted in a pre-designed word table and were used for the qualitative synthesis.

RESULTS

A total of 28 reviews were included in this study. Most studies have shown that micronutrients are effective in morbidity and mortality controlling in viral respiratory infections such as COVID-19 but some studies have shown that micronutrients are sometimes not effective in controlling severity. On the other hand, calcifediol was by far the most successful agent in reducing intensive care needs and mortality between studies.

CONCLUSION

Individuals without malnutrition had a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease. The administration of Vitamin D is effective in reducing the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 patients. Patients with vitamin D deficiency were more prone to experience severe infection, and they were at higher risk of morbidities and mortality. Other micronutrients such as Vitamin A, Vitamin B, and Zinc also showed some benefits in patients with COVID-19. Vitamin C showed no efficacy in COVID-19 management even in intravenous form or in high doses.

The Upper-gastrointestinal Endoscopic Findings of People Living with HIV: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

This article aimed to analyze upper endoscopic findings in the HIV patient population to elucidate the upper-gastrointestinal complications related to HIV infection. Gastrointestinal (GI) disorders in individuals living with HIV/AIDS exhibit diverse and often nonspecific manifestations, imposing substantial morbidity and mortality burdens. Endoscopic evaluation with biopsies is essential in the diagnosis and management of these conditions. Delayed treatment due to undetected GI abnormalities during endoscopic examinations can lead to poorer health outcomes.

METHODS

This systematic review has determined the findings of upper-GI endoscopy of HIV-infected patients. Online databases of PubMed, Web of Science, Jisc Library Hub Discover, and Library of Congress have been searched using relevant keyword combinations. We have retrieved all the pertinent papers and reports published in English and screened them against inclusion/exclusion criteria for data extraction in two steps. First, titles/abstracts have been evaluated and then full-text screening has been performed by independent researchers. This study has adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist.

RESULTS

In this review, 24 articles have been included in the final analysis. The study has focused on the characteristics of participants and the findings of endoscopic evaluations. The participants of the study have been HIV-positive patients, and the majority of them have undergone endoscopy due to gastrointestinal symptoms. The biopsy regions primarily targeted have been observed to be the esophagus, stomach, and duodenum. The most common result of the biopsy specimens has been chronic active gastritis.

CONCLUSION

To improve clinical practice, this systematic review sought to provide an up-to-date reference for upper gastrointestinal endoscopic findings of HIV-infected persons. Our results are in line with earlier research showing how effective endoscopy is for determining a precise diagnosis and directing care. The majority of HIV patients with gastrointestinal symptoms have been found to have opportunistic infections and persistent active gastritis as well as mucosal abnormalities of the upper gastrointestinal tract. Studies have shown that endoscopic and histological assessment can aid in the early detection and management of issues involving the upper gastrointestinal tract.

Marijuana use and its correlates among school-going Jamaican adolescents: a finding from a national survey

Introduction

The recent data indicate almost a fifth of Jamaican adolescents used marijuana in the past 30 days. To ensure the optimal allocation of resources, a country-specific understanding of factors associated with marijuana use among adolescents is essential. Therefore, this study aimed to address this gap among adolescents aged 13-17 years in Jamaica.

Methods

We analyzed data from the recent Jamaica Global School-Based Student Health Survey conducted in 2017. The sample consists of school-going Jamaican adolescents of 7th-12th grades. The prevalence of recent marijuana use was assessed and compared across different demographics, substance use, and risk behaviors using bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses.

Results

Older adolescents and men had a higher likelihood of recent marijuana use. Psychosocial risks, such as loneliness, frequent worry, suicidal ideation, physical attacks, and school absenteeism, were associated with higher marijuana usage. Parental smoking increased the odds, whereas strong parental support and awareness decreased it. Other substance uses, especially amphetamine and tobacco products, had strong associations with marijuana use. Early initiation of substances was associated with a higher risk of marijuana use. Sexually active adolescents, especially those initiated before the age of 14 years, had higher rates of marijuana use.

Conclusion

The intricate link between harmful and supportive psychosomatic and risk behaviors with recent marijuana use highlights the importance of holistic interventions and policies focusing on emotional health, parental guidance, substance education, and sexual activity implications.

The individual- and community-level women's empowerment and utilization of maternity care services in Afghanistan: a multilevel cross-validation study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to explore the relationship between women's empowerment and utilization of maternity care for married Afghan women aged 15-49 y in Afghanistan, assessing the convergence validity of the Survey-based Women's Empowerment Index in Afghanistan (SWEI-A).

METHODS

The study used data from the 2015 Afghanistan Demographic Health Survey to examine the association of different domains of women's empowerment with the utilization of maternity care using multilevel Poisson regression at both individual and community levels.

RESULTS

The utilization of maternity services was considerably higher among women with high scores compared with those with low scores in almost all domains of the SWEI-A, except for property owning, in which women with high scores appeared to have lower rates of utilization of such services compared with those with low scores. At the community level, those communities with high participation of women in the labor force were less likely to have adequate antenatal care (ANC), institutional delivery and postnatal care (PNC). Individual-level literacy was associated with higher utilization of ANC, institutional delivery and PNC, contrary to community-level literacy.

CONCLUSIONS

Except for property owning, the high score in almost all other domains was associated with higher utilization of maternity care, which indicates an acceptable level of convergence validity for the developed index (i.e. the SWEI-A) in measuring women's empowerment among married Afghan women aged 15-49 y.

Global, regional, and national burden of spinal cord injury, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a major cause of health loss due to premature mortality and long-term disability. We aimed to report on the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for SCI from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

Using GBD 2019 data pooled in DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, we systematically derived numbers and age-standardised rate changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI from 1990 to 2019 for the whole world, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We report trends based on age, sex, year, cause of injury, and level of injury.

FINDINGS

Globally, 20·6 million (95% UI 18·9 to 23·6) individuals were living with SCI in 2019. The incidence of SCI was 0·9 million (0·7 to 1·2) cases with an estimated 6·2 million (4·5 to 8·2) YLDs. SCI rates increased substantially from 1990 to 2019 for global prevalence (81·5%, 74·2 to 87·1), incidence (52·7%, 30·3 to 69·8), and YLDs (65·4%, 56·3 to 76·0). However, global age-standardised rates per 100 000 population showed small changes in prevalence (5·8%, 2·6 to 9·5), incidence (-6·1%, -17·2 to 1·5), and YLDs (-1·5%, -5·5 to 3·2). Data for 2019 shows that the incidence of SCI increases sharply until age 15-19 years, where it remains reasonably constant until 85 years of age and older. By contrast, prevalence and YLDs showed similar patterns to each other, with one peak at around age 45-54 years. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of SCI have consistently been higher in men than in women globally, with a slight and steady increase for both men and women from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, SCI at neck level was more common than SCI below neck level in terms of incidence (492 thousand [354 to 675] vs 417 thousand [290 to 585]), prevalence (10·8 million [9·5 to 13·9] vs 9·7 million [9·2 to 10·4]), and YLDs (4·2 million [3·0 to 5·8] vs 1·9 million [1·3 to 2·5]). Falls (477 thousand [327 to 683] cases) and road injuries (230 thousand [122 to 389] cases) were the two leading causes of SCI globally in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI changed only slightly, absolute counts increased substantially from 1990 to 2019. Geographical heterogeneity in demographic, spatial, and temporal patterns of SCI, at both the national and regional levels, should be considered by policy makers aiming to reduce the burden of SCI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Current ART, determinants for virologic failure and implications for HIV drug resistance: an umbrella review

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to investigate the incidence of determinants for virologic failure and to identify predisposing factors to enhance treatment efficacy. Tackling this global public health issue is the key to reducing the rate of virological failure and increasing the success of treatment for those living with HIV.

METHODS

This umbrella review delves into various aspects of current anti-retroviral therapy (ART) which is the primary treatment for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Comprehensive searches were conducted in online databases including PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science, up to May 26, 2023. Following the screening and selection of relevant articles, eligible articles were included in the data extraction. This study adhered to the PRISMA guideline to report the results and employed the NIH quality and bias risk assessment tool to ensure the quality of included studies.

RESULTS

In total, 40 review studies published from 2015 to 2023 were included. The bulk of these studies concurred on several major factors contributing to HIV drug resistance and virological failure. Key among these were medication adherence, baseline and therapeutic CD4 levels, the presence of co-infections, and the advanced clinical stage of the infection.

CONCLUSION

The resistance to HIV drugs and instances of determinants for virologic failure have a profound impact on the life quality of those infected with HIV. Primary contributors to this scenario include insufficient adherence to treatment, decreased CD4 T-cell count, elevated viral levels, and certain treatment regimens. Implementing appropriate interventions could address these issues. Sub-Saharan Africa exhibits elevated rates of determinants for virologic failure, attributed to the delay in HIV testing and diagnosis, and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). It is essential to undertake further research aimed at enhancing the detection of resistance in HIV patients and mitigating viral failure by addressing these underlying causes.

The relationship of hip fracture and thyroid disorders: a systematic review

Introduction

Bone density regulation is considered one of the systems affected by thyroid hormones, leading to low bone density that can result in pathologic fractures, including hip fractures. This review aimed to update clinicians and researchers about the current data regarding the relationship between hip fractures and thyroid disorders.

Methods

English papers were thoroughly searched in four main online databases of Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and Embase. Data extraction was done following two steps of screening/selection using distinct inclusion/exclusion criteria. This study used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) checklist and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) as bias assessment.

Results

In total, 19 articles were included in the research. The risk of hip fractures in women with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is higher than hip fractures caused by osteoporosis. Men with hyperthyroidism and subclinical hyperthyroidism are at higher risk for hip fracture. Also, a decrease in serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) may be associated with an increased risk of hip fracture.

Conclusion

Reaching a consensus conclusion regarding the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and hip fracture is not feasible due to the heterogenicity of evidence; however, there may be a higher risk of fracture in individuals with subclinical hyperthyroidism.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.

METHODS

Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.

Findings

In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8-241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7-15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40-2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41-0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5-29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6-45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3-81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6-10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8-39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050.

Interpretation

Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021-30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050.

Methods

In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model.

Findings

Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535-656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8-8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3-134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4-89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9-67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7-105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1-135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7-557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6-10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3-510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8-6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0-9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI -1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling.

Interpretation

Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Suicidal behaviours and their correlates in school-going Lebanese adolescents: findings from a national survey

BACKGROUND

Adolescent suicide is regarded as a serious phenomenon that affects the well-being of the youth. This study aims to investigate the prevalence of suicidal behaviours and their association with physical/psychological harm and substance use in a nationally representative sample of adolescents in Grades 7-12 in Lebanon.

METHODS

Data from the latest Global School-Based Student Health Survey conducted in 2017 were used in this study. The prevalence and correlates of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts among those who had considered committing suicide, at least once, were explored.

RESULTS

An estimated 13.45% of Lebanese adolescents, particularly females in Grades 7-12 had considered suicide at least once in the past 12 months. More importantly, almost half of them had attempted it at least once in the past 12 months. Those who frequently felt lonely or worried (previous year), were involved in physical fights or assaults (previous year), had been verbally or physically bullied (previous month), had missed more school days, experienced food insecurity, and had a history of substance abuse (marijuana, amphetamine, alcohol, and tobacco products) were more likely to exhibit suicidal behaviours. Parental support and older age at drug initiation appeared to be protective factors.

DISCUSSION

The findings characterise the correlates of suicidal behaviours among school-going Lebanese adolescents and determine the attributes of the risk group susceptible to engaging in suicide attempts. Future interventions and policies should consider these attributes when monitoring target groups, particularly those with the alarming behaviours identified in this study. In addition, awareness campaigns that engage all stakeholders, particularly parents, should be prioritised by the authorities.

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Effectiveness of Face Masks in Preventing COVID-19 Transmission: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, face masks have been among the cornerstones of COVID-19 prevention. Therefore, evaluating their preventive effects against COVID-19 is crucial. This review aimed to systematically search for the systematic review articles that explored the role of various types of face masks in preventing COVID-19.

METHODS

We browsed the keywords of this study in the online databases of Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and Cochrane on 10th January 2023 and retrieved all the relevant systematic review articles. The records were downloaded into an Endnote file, and the duplicates were removed. A two-step screening process consisting of title/abstract and full-text screenings was conducted to select the most relevant articles. To ensure the validity and reliability of the results, this study adhered to the PRISMA protocol.

RESULTS

A total of 28 systematic reviews were included in this review. Most studies found that face masks are beneficial against viral respiratory infections, such as COVID-19. Different types of masks were evaluated in included studies. It appeared that mask efficacy depends on the material, layers, fitting on the face and user compliance. N 95 respirator had maximum efficacy, especially when used continuously.

CONCLUSION

Face masks have a beneficial effect against COVID-19. Home masks are less protective than surgical masks or N95 personal breathing masks. Besides, the use of masks may elicit a false sense of security in people, which may lead to poor hand hygiene and violation of social distancing. Therefore, the necessary training should be provided to the public to increase awareness and encourage the right practice of using the mask, emphasizing the preventive effects of washing hands, social distancing, and using a face mask against COVID-19.

Intimate Partner Violence and Children Under 5 Morbidities and Mortality in Afghanistan: Findings From a National Survey

Limited knowledge exists concerning the prevalence and drivers of intimate partner violence (IPV) against Afghan women and its association with child morbidity and mortality in Afghanistan. The study used data from the 2015 Afghanistan Demographic and Health Survey (ADHS 2015). The prevalence and associated sociodemographic factors of IPV were described by analyzing the data from Afghan women aged 15 to 49 years selected for the IPV module in ADHS 2015 (n = 24,070) whose children under 5 (n = 22,927) were included in the further analysis to estimate the morbidity and mortality of children and its association with IPV. It appeared that more than half of the Afghan women aged 15 to 49 years experienced IPV in the past year. Illiteracy (odds ratio [OR] = 1.69; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.39), living in rural areas (OR = 1.47; [1.19, 1.82]) being from the Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek, and Pashai ethnic backgrounds were associated with a higher risk of IPV exposure. In general, the likelihood of child mortality within the first 5 years was higher among children born to mothers exposed to IPV, particularly physical and sexual even after adjustment for sociodemographic inequalities, the number of antenatal care, and marriage age. In addition, the odds of diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and fever in the past 2 weeks were significantly higher among the children of victimized mothers in both adjusted and unadjusted models. Moreover, low birth weight and small birth size were more likely to be observed among the children of a mother who either experienced sexual or physical violence. The findings emphasized the elevated risk of morbidity and mortality among children under 5 born to mothers exposed to IPV and incorporating IPV screening into maternity and child care could reduce these adverse outcomes among Afghan women.

Post-Exposure Prophylaxis for COVID-19: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

SARS-CoV-2 cause pneumonia can spread across the lung and lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in severe cases. Post-exposure prophylaxis has shown great potential to prevent the transmission of some viral infections; however, such results for COVID-19 are still inconclusive.

METHODS

Therefore, the aim of this study was to systematically review the resources that utilized postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) for COVID-19 and the possible clinical benefits of such drugs. An organized search of relevant literature was done using the keywords and search queries on public databases of Cochrane, PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus from December 2019 to August 23, 2021. Original resources that had the inclusion criteria were included after two-phase title/abstract and full-text screenings. This review adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and MetaAnalysis (PRISMA) statement.

RESULTS

Out of 841 retrieved records 17 resources were appropriate to include in the systematic review. Hydroxychloroquine with a daily dose of 400-800 mg and a duration of 5-14 days was the most frequently used agent for PEP. Chloroquine was recommended to use to control treatment in patients with mild to severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Other agents like Lopinavir-ritonavir (LPV/r), angiotensinconverting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), Vitamin D, arbidol, thymosin drugs, and Xin guan no.1 (XG.1, a Chinese formula medicine) have also been applied in some studies.

CONCLUSION

Current evidence demonstrated no established clinical benefits of any drug as PEP in individuals with COVID-19. However, scarce indication occurs for the beneficial effects of some agents, but more studies are needed to explore such effects.

A systematic review of sarcopenia prevalence and associated factors in people living with human immunodeficiency virus

People living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH) appear to be at an increased risk of sarcopenia, which can have a devastating effect on their life due to consequences such as physical disability, poor quality of life, and finally death. This systematic review examined sarcopenia prevalence and its associated factors in PLWH. A systematic search was conducted using the keywords in the online databases including Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and Cochrane databases from the dates of inception up to May 2022. The retrieved articles underwent a two-step title/abstract and full-text review process, and the eligible papers were selected and included in the qualitative synthesis. Data relating to the study population, purpose of study, gender, age, race, body mass index, medical history, paraclinical results and antiretroviral therapy as associated factors of sarcopenia were extracted. In addition, the prevalence of sarcopenia in PLWH and its promoting and reducing factors were also extracted. We reviewed the 14 related studies for identifying of sarcopenia prevalence and its associated factors in PLWH. The total number of PLWH in all the reviewed studies was 2592. There was no criterion for the minimum number of people with HIV and the lowest number of PLWH was 27, and the highest number was 860. Some studies reported a significantly higher prevalence of sarcopenia in HIV-infected individuals compared with HIV-negative controls as follows: 24.2-6.7%, 15-4% and 10-6%, respectively. We showed that, age (30-50 years), being female, >5 years post-HIV diagnosis, multiple vertebral fractures, cocaine/heroin use and lower gamma-glutamyl transferase level were the main promoting factors of sarcopenia. Higher educational level, employment, physical exercise, calf circumference >31 cm, and gait speed >0.8 m/s were also factors to reduce sarcopenia. Sarcopenia prevalence in PLWH is higher than HIV-negative population. Given the importance and prevalence of sarcopenia among PLWH and its associated consequences (i.e., mortality and disability), determining its risk factors is of great importance.

Prevalence of and risk factors for HCV among incarcerated people at Great Tehran Prison: a cross-sectional study

PURPOSE

Hepatitis C is one of the major health issues in both developed and developing countries. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is more common in prisoners than in the general population. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of HCV and its associated risk factors in Iranian male prisoners in Tehran.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

In this cross-sectional study, the authors investigated the frequency and risk factors of hepatitis C infection among male prisoners in the Great Tehran Prison. Information on risk factors including the length of imprisonment, previous history of imprisonment, history of drug injection, history of tattooing, history of piercing, history of high-risk sex and family history of hepatitis C were extracted from patients' records. To evaluate HCV status, blood samples were collected and tested.

FINDINGS

In this study, 179 participants were included. Nine participants (5.0%, 95% CI, 2.3-9.3) were positive for hepatitis C. HCV infection was not significantly associated with age, marital status, education, previous history of imprisonment, length of imprisonment, piercing and high-risk sex; however, there was a significant association between a history of tattooing and a history of injecting drug use and Hepatitis C.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

The prevalence of hepatitis C among male prisoners in Great Tehran Prison was 5% in this study, similar to recent studies on prisoners in Tehran. A history of drug injections as well as tattooing were the most important risk factors for hepatitis C in male prisoners.

Gut microbiota and COVID-19: A systematic review

Background and Aims

Alteration in humans' gut microbiota was reported in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The gut and upper respiratory tract (URT) microbiota harbor a dynamic and complex population of microorganisms and have strong interaction with host immune system homeostasis. However, our knowledge about microbiota and its association with SARS-CoV-2 is still limited. We aimed to systematically review the effects of gut microbiota on the SARS-CoV-2 infection and its severity and the impact that SARS-CoV-2 could have on the gut microbiota.

Methods

We searched the keywords in the online databases of Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, and Cochrane on December 31, 2021. After duplicate removal, we performed the screening process in two stages; title/abstract and then full-text screening. The data of the eligible studies were extracted into a pre-designed word table. This study adhered to the PRISMA checklist and Newcastle-Ottawa Scale Bias Assessment tool.

Results

Sixty-three publications were included in this review. Our study shows that among COVID-19 patients, particularly moderate to severe cases, the gut and lung microbiota was different compared to healthy individuals. In addition, the severity, and viral load of COVID-19 disease would probably also be influenced by the gut, and lung microbiota's composition.

Conclusion

Our study concludes that there was a significant difference in the composition of the URT, and gut microbiota in COVID-19 patients compared to the general healthy individuals, with an increase in opportunistic pathogens. Further, research is needed to investigate the probable bidirectional association of COVID-19 and human microbiome.

Estimating methods of the undetected infections in the COVID-19 outbreak: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

The accurate number of COVID-19 cases is essential knowledge to control an epidemic. Currently, one of the most important obstacles in estimating the exact number of COVID-19 patients is the absence of typical clinical symptoms in a large number of people, called asymptomatic infections. In this systematic review, we included and evaluated the studies mainly focusing on the prediction of undetected COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates as well as the reproduction numbers, utilizing various mathematical models.

METHODS

This systematic review aims to investigate the estimating methods of undetected infections in the COVID-19 outbreak. Databases of PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane, and Embase, were searched for a combination of keywords. Applying the inclusion/ exclusion criteria, all retrieved English literature by April 7, 2022, were reviewed for data extraction through a two-step screening process; first, titles/ abstracts, and then full-text. This study is consistent with the PRISMA checklist.

RESULTS

In this study, 61 documents were retrieved using a systematic search strategy. After an initial review of retrieved articles, 6 articles were excluded and the remaining 55 articles met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final review. Most of the studies used mathematical models to estimate the number of underreported asymptomatic infected cases, assessing incidence and prevalence rates more precisely. The spread of COVID-19 has been investigated using various mathematical models. The output statistics were compared with official statistics obtained from different countries. Although the number of reported patients was lower than the estimated numbers, it appeared that the mathematical calculations could be a useful measure to predict pandemics and proper planning.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, our study demonstrates the effectiveness of mathematical models in unraveling the true burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of more precise, and accurate infection and mortality rates, and reproduction numbers, thus, statistical mathematical modeling could be an effective tool for measuring the detrimental global burden of pandemic infections. Additionally, they could be a really useful method for future pandemics and would assist the healthcare and public health systems with more accurate and valid information.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the levels of physical activity: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Earlier studies demonstrated a decreased level of physical activity (PA) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, we aimed to systematically review the relevant studies among various age groups and explore the impact on physical and mental health.

METHODS

We searched and retrieved all relevant articles using the keywords on the online databases of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane from the start of the pandemic until May 3rd, 2021. A two-phase screening process of identified records was carried out to shortlist the most relevant studies. First, the studies were evaluated based on their title/abstract, and then the full-text of included studies was thoroughly read. The eligible studies based on the eligibility criteria were included in this review.

RESULTS

A total of 57 studies were included based on the eligibility criteria. Lockdowns and infection with SARS-CoV-2 have led to a decreased level of PA in the general population compared to the pre-pandemic era. Men had significantly less PA compared to women in some studies, probably due to higher pre-pandemic PA. The level of PA among those with chronic diseases also significantly diminished, putting them at a higher risk of cardiovascular incidents. Sedentary lifestyles have dominated people's life, including adolescents and university students. The increased levels of mental health issues, such as depression, anxiety, and occupational stress, have been suggested to contribute to the decreased PA. On the other hand, the decreased PA appeared to lead to more mental health issues. Fortunately, the decreasing trend of PA seemed to taper towards the end of the quarantines.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent quarantines reduced PA among all age groups and both sexes and had detrimental effects on people's physical and mental health. We suggest countries implement strategies to alleviate restrictions and encourage people to exercise in safe environments and prepare healthy routines for themselves.

Evaluating the effects of air disinfectants in decontamination of COVID-19 aerosols

Introduction

Airborne transmission is the most  crucial mode of COVID-19 transmission. Therefore, disinfecting the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) aerosols float can have important implications in limiting COVID-19 transmission. Herein, we aimed to review the studies that utilized various disinfectants to decontaminate and inactivate the SARS-CoV-2 aerosols.

Methods

This study was a review that studied related articles published between December 1, 2019 and August 23, 2022. We searched the online databases of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane, on August 23, 2021. The studies were downloaded into the EndNote software, duplicates were removed, and then the studies were screened based on the inclusion/exclusion criteria. The screening process involved two steps; first, the studies were screened based on their title and abstract and then their full texts. The included studies were used for the qualitative analysis.

Results

From 664 retrieved records, only 31 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final qualitative analysis. Various materials like Ozone, H₂O₂, alcohol, and TiO₂ and methods like heating and using Ultraviolet were described in these studies to disinfect places contaminated by COVID-19. It appeared that the efficacy of these disinfectants varies considerably depending on the situation, time, and ultimately their mode of application.

Conclusion

Following reliable protocols in combination with the proper selection of disinfectant agents for each purpose would serve to achieve desired elimination of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on service delivery and treatment outcomes in people living with HIV: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 epidemic and various control and mitigation measures to combat the widespread outbreak of the disease may affect other parts of health care systems. There is a concern that the COVID-19 pandemic could disrupt HIV services. Therefore, this study aimed to systematically evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on service delivery and treatment outcomes in people with HIV.

METHODS

In this study, a systematic search was conducted using the keywords in the online databases including Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases. The retrieved articles underwent a two-step title/abstract and full-text review process, and the eligible papers were selected and included in the qualitative synthesis.

RESULT

We selected 16 studies out of 529 retrieved records that met the inclusion criteria for this review. Study populations of the selected studies were either HIV-positive patients or HIV clinics and healthcare providers. Most studies were focused on adhering to and obtaining medication and attending clinical appointments and their decrement during the pandemic. Other aspects of HIV care (alternative healthcare settings, viral suppression, psychological care, etc.) were discussed to a lesser extent by the included studies.

CONCLUSION

Interruption in in-person visits and medical follow-up services, loss of adherence to treatment, and subsequent increase in mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic complications in PLHIV have led to growing concerns. Other challenges were psychological disorders such as anxiety and depression, an increase in substance abuse, and a rise in experienced stigma and discrimination. However, the use of telemedicine in some countries helps to alleviate the situation to some extent and is recommended in similar settings in the future.

The association of child marriage with morbidities and mortality among children under 5 years in Afghanistan: findings from a national survey

BACKGROUND

There is still a gap in knowledge of the impact that child marriage could have on the mortality and morbidity of children in Afghanistan. This study used the data from the latest Afghanistan demographic health survey conducted in 2015 (ADHS) to address this gap and advance the current knowledge.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of the 2015 ADHS, including the births in the past 5 years to ever-married women aged 15-24 years old, was carried out. Logistic regression analyses were employed to examine the association of child marriage (< 18y) with morbidities (diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and fever in the last 2 weeks), mortality (neonatal, infant, child), and size at birth among the children under 5 born to women aged 15-24 years, before and after adjusting for the effect of sociodemographic and structural inequalities.

RESULTS

Approximately two-thirds of births in the past 5 years belong to 15-24 years old mothers who married at ages < 18. The majority of them were born to mothers residing in rural areas (75.67%) with no education (51.68%) from poor households (39.39%). As compared to the births to women married at ages ≥ 18, there was a significantly higher likelihood of neonatal mortality among births to women married at ages < 18 (crude OR = 2.30, 95% CI: 1.52-3.49 & adjusted OR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.25-3.01) and higher infant mortality among the births to the women married at ages ≤ 14y (crude OR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.06-3.53). However, it disappeared for neonatal mortality after adjustment for adequacy of antenatal care (ANC) and infant mortality after adjustment for sociodemographic inequalities.

CONCLUSION

Although the births to women married as a child (< 18) were more likely to die at an early age, this association disappeared after adjustment for the adequacy of ANC. Given the unavoidable practice of child marriage in Afghanistan, this finding emphasizes the importance of providing adequate ANC for young brides to prevent child mortality. In addition, strong global advocacy is required to empower and support young Afghan women in negotiating their reproductive and maternity rights with their partners by reducing social and gender-based inequalities.

Internal migration and utilization of reproductive and maternity care among women in Pakistan: evidence from a recent National Survey

Background

During the last decades, migratory behavior has had a key role in population growth and redistribution in Pakistan. Migration has far-reaching socioeconomic implications for individuals and society at large that could influence the health integrity of Pakistani women. This study aimed to describe the migration patterns and drivers as well as their association with adequate access to reproductive and maternal care among married Pakistani women aged 15-49.

Methods

The data from the 2017-18 Pakistan Demographic Health Survey (PDHS) was used to extract the information on the explanatory (sociodemographic and migration backgrounds) and outcome variables (unmet needs for family planning, adequate antenatal care, and delivery at health facilities). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to examine the relationship between these explanatory and outcome variables before and after adjustment for sociodemographic inequalities.

Results

In unadjusted models, the odds of having adequate ANC and delivery at health facilities were approximately 2 to 4 times higher in those living (urban non-migrant), moving to (urban to urban, rural to urban), or leaving the urban areas (rural to urban) as compared to rural non-migrants; likewise, the odds of the unmet needs for family planning was about 20-50% lower in the same migration streams compared to rural non-migrant. However, after adjustment for sociodemographic inequalities, most of these associations attenuated and only the association of urban to urban migration with unmet needs for family planning and the association of urban non-migrant with delivery at health facilities remained significant.

Conclusion

Although the findings suggest that Internal migration flows, particularly those to urban areas (urban to urban and rural to urban), could be associated with better access to reproductive and maternity care among married Pakistani women aged 15-49 years; adjustment for sociodemographic inequalities, particularly education and wealth, nullified this association to a great extent. This has important implications for current policies and interventions in Pakistan and calls for policy reform and women's rights advocacy to enhance the literacy level of young Pakistani girls through well-tailored interventions, maintaining them at school.

The Determinants of Treatment Delay and Quality of Life among the Newly Diagnosed Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients in Northeastern Thailand: A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Delays in diagnosing pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) are linked to financial difficulties, employment limits, dependency, and symptomatic treatment, all of which have an impact on the patient's quality of life. Patients' psychological, economic, and social well-being are also harmed by delayed therapy. The goal of this research was to evaluate sociodemographic characteristics and quality of life in new pulmonary TB patients and determine the associated factors with delayed TB diagnosis.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study conducted in the Choke Chai Community Hospital, in Northeastern Thailand between 2016 and 2018. The information related to the patient's medical history and laboratory tests were gathered from 332 newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients at the hospital's tuberculosis clinic; of those 15 died and were excluded from the final analysis. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 17.0.

RESULTS

The cases included new cases (94%) and those returning to receive treatment after discontinuation of treatment, relapse, or recurrence of the disease (6%). The sample consisted of 68.7% males and 31.3% females. The average age was 52.7 years (S.D = 15.64). The majority of patients were married (60.5%), employed (68.6%), received a low income (66.6%), had a history of chronic diseases (73%), drank alcohol (31.7%), and smoked (85.7%). Approximately half of PTB experienced treatment delay and had a low quality of life (QoL) (46.6%). The treatment delay was associated with age > 50 years (p <0.05), low self-care (p <0.05), long distance to facility (p <0.05), unavailable caretaker to treat (p <0.05), no caregiver in family (p <0.05), high expenses (p <0.01), and lack of information (p <0.001).

CONCLUSION

It appeared that the patients' health-related quality of life could be deteriorated as a result of pulmonary tuberculosis. Treatment delays can be significantly reduced by changing the understanding of family caregivers, increasing awareness, providing adequate support for patients, and guaranteeing early diagnosis and treatment by implementing an efficient surveillance system.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Severity in Patients with Hematologic Malignancies: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Earlier reports described the possibility of higher SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity in patients with hematological malignancies. Given the importance and incidence of these malignancies, we aimed to systematically review SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity in patients with hematologic cancers.

METHODS

We retrieved the relevant records by searching the keywords in online databases of PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane, and Scopus on December 31st, 2021. A two-step screening; title/abstract and full-text screening, was employed to select the eligible studies. These eligible studies entered the final qualitative analysis. The study is adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist to ensure the reliability and validity of the results.

RESULTS

Forty studies concerning different hematologic malignancies and the effect of COVID-19 infection on them were included in the final analysis. The findings showed that in general, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the severity of the disease are often higher in hematologic malignancies and the patients could experience higher morbidity and mortality compared to general populations.

CONCLUSION

It appeared that individuals with hematologic malignancies are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infection and they experience more severe disease with higher mortality rates. The presence of other comorbidities could also deteriorate this situation. Further investigation is recommended to evaluate the outcome of COVID-19 infection in different subtypes of hematologic malignancies.

Prevalence and risk factors for HIV infection in truck drivers: a systematic review of global evidence

Transporting and driving long distances might be associated with an increased risk of contracting HIV in truck drivers, which is recognized as a link to network transmission of HIV among this population. The present study aims to systematically review the prevalence and risk factors of HIV infection in truck drivers globally. A comprehensive search of the databases of Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science was carried out. The original papers reporting statistics on the prevalence and risk factors of HIV infection among truck drivers were included. In this study, 23 original articles that met the eligibility criteria were reviewed. All articles were cross-sectional studies in which a total number of 16,315 truck drivers were studied to estimate the prevalence and risk factors of HIV infection. Findings indicated high HIV seroprevalence among truck drivers, with the highest prevalence of 56% in South Africa. HIV/AIDS awareness and condom use among truckers were reported low. Having sex with other men, circumcision status, time away from home, marital status, years working as a truck driver, education, income, and drug/alcohol use are the most important risk factors for HIV in truck drivers. Longer time on the road can increase the risk of infection by creating conditions for unsafe sex, in particular, having sex with other men. Low socioeconomic status exacerbates the condition. HIV risk-reduction interventions for long-distance truck drivers are necessary to enhance the awareness of sexually transmitted infections and introduce protective measures such as condoms.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

COVID-19 mortality in patients with immunodeficiency and its predictors: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Patients with immunodeficiency are usually more prone to worse outcomes of infectious diseases. However, there are some disagreements in the context of COVID-19, for example, in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Herein, we aimed to systematically review the risk and predictors of COVID-19 mortality in people with primary or secondary immunodeficiency.

METHODS

PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct were searched. We followed a two-step screening process to identify eligible results. We first reviewed the title and abstract of the records and the unqualified studies were removed. Then, their full texts were evaluated based on their coherence with the purpose and inclusion/exclusion criteria, and those eligible for qualitative synthesis were included.

RESULTS

Twenty-two articles were included, which investigated a total of 109,326 with primary or secondary immunodeficiencies. Three studies investigated the pediatric and infant population, while other studies were conducted on the adult population. Overall, studies on both primary and secondary immunodeficiency conflicted as some reported higher and some mentioned lower mortality rates in patients with immunodeficiency.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, there were two points of view in both types of immunodeficiencies. The first is the classical viewpoint that all immunodeficient patients are at a higher risk of infection leading to a higher mortality rate. The second types of studies found that immunodeficiency might play a less important or even an inverse role in mortality rates by lowering the severity of the inflammatory response. However, it is important to take note to comorbidities, such as DM, HTN, CAD, ESRD, history of lower respiratory infection, etc., and demographic factors, such as obesity and age > 70 years, as they appear to influence the mortality rate, especially in patients with secondary immunodeficiency.