Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of HIV transmission risk behaviors, genetic variations, and antiretroviral (ARV) resistance in LGBT populations

Background

Currently, human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) has become one of the major health problems worldwide, including Indonesia. East Java is one of the provinces in Indonesia with the highest prevalence of HIV infection. One of the causes of HIV infection transmission is lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) practice. Furthermore, the treatment using antiretroviral (ARV) drugs in HIV-1 patients can fail due to the presence of HIV drug resistance.

Objective

The aim of this study is to identify the behavior at risk of HIV transmission among LGBT, patterns of genetic variation and antiretroviral (ARV) resistance.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis based on the PRISMA guidelines was conducted. We searched three databases including PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Google scholar for studies investigating the non-heterosexual behavior as risk factor of HIV infection and antiretroviral resistance. Only studies published in English are considered. The adjusted estimates of the risk were carried out using best-adjusted OR with 95% confidence interval (CI) and significant p value < 0.05.

Results

In the quantitative analysis of HIV infection risk factors, a total of 13 studies were included, which investigated non-heterosexual behavior as a potential factor. The studies involved a total of 37,129 participants, comprising 10,449 individuals in the non-heterosexual behavior group (LGBTQ+) and 26,680 individuals in the heterosexual group. The majority of the participants in this study were from the USA, Japan, China, and Brazil, and the main HIV subgenotypes were B and CRF. Additionally, the antiretroviral resistance of HIV patients was examined, involving a total of 3062 individuals, with 1296 individuals in the non-heterosexual behavior group and 1766 individuals in the heterosexual group. Our calculation showed that non-heterosexual behavior was significant as risk factor of HIV infection (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.94-2.43, p < 0.001) and antiretroviral resistance (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.00-1.71, p = 0.05).

Conclusion

This study concludes that non heterosexual behavior is significant risk factor of HIV infection. A quite prevalent of antiretroviral resistance were found among non heterosexual behavior. The main subgenotype of HIV are B and CRF.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Socioeconomic Disparity in the Effect of SARS-CoV-2 on Outpatient Visits among People with Type 2 Diabetes in Taiwan

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak posed impact on healthcare. This study evaluated the effect of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak on the outpatient visits of patients with type 2 diabetes and determined the most affected groups. We analyzed Taiwan's National Health Insurance data, including 1,922,702 patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes from 2018 to 2021. Group-based trajectory modelling identified four distinct outpatient visit patterns, namely, consistently high (Group 1, 74.2%), low-to-high (Group 2, 8.1%), high-to-low (Group 3, 6.0%) and consistently low (Group 4, 11.7%) utilization. Logistic regression was used to analyze correlations between trajectory types and patients' demographics and health statuses. Group 3 members had higher odds of being male [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.05] and earning below 20,000 New Taiwan Dollar monthly (aOR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.26-1.31) than those in Group 1. However, they were less likely to be under 80 years old (aOR = 0.70-0.97), from lower median family income regions (aOR = 0.81-0.89) or possess a Charlson Comorbidity Index score > 2 (aOR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.66-0.68). Patients with lower income in affluent areas displayed the highest likelihood of falling into Group 3. Patients with type 2 diabetes and low income from wealthy areas were vulnerable during the pandemic. This result emphasizes the need to target resources and support for this subgroup during such crises.

The 30 Years of Shifting in The Indonesian Cardiovascular Burden-Analysis of The Global Burden of Disease Study

IMPORTANCE

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality and morbidity. Compared with disease burden rates in 1990, significant reductions in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) burden rates for CVD have been recorded. However, general DALYs rates have not changed in Indonesia in the past 30 years. Thus, assessing Indonesian CVD burdens will be an essential first step in determining primary disease interventions.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the national and province-level burden of CVD from 1990 to 2019 in Indonesia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective observational study was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, provided by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), to analyze trends in the burden of CVD, including mortality, morbidity, and prevalence characteristics of 12 underlying CVDs.

EXPOSURES

Residence in Indonesia.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mortality, incidence, prevalence, death, and DALYs of CVD.

RESULTS

CVD deaths have doubled from 278 million in 1990 to 651 million in 2019. All CVDs recorded increased death rates, except for rheumatic heart disease (RHD) (- 69%) and congenital heart disease (CHD) (- 37%). Based on underlying diseases, stroke and ischemic heart disease (IHD) are still the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in Indonesia, whereas stroke and peripheral artery disease (PAD) are the most prevalent CVDs. Indonesia has the second worst CVD DALYs rates compared to ASEAN countries after Laos. At provincial levels, the highest CVD DALY rates were recorded in Bangka Belitung, South Kalimantan, and Yogyakarta. In terms of DALYs rate changes, they were recorded in West Nusa Tenggara (24%), South Kalimantan (18%), and Central Java (11%). Regarding sex, only RHD, and PAD burdens were dominated by females.

CONCLUSIONS

CVD mortality, morbidity, and prevalence rates increased in Indonesia from 1990 to 2019, especially for stroke and ischemic heart disease. The burden is exceptionally high, even when compared to other Southeast Asian countries and the global downward trend. GBD has many limitations. However, these data could provide policymakers with a broad view of CVD conditions in Indonesia.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody status in unvaccinated and 2-dose vaccinated Indonesians by AstraZeneca

Indonesia began deploying a COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021, prioritising vaccination for high-risk groups such as healthcare workers, the elderly and those with comorbidities, and ending with the general public due to limited vaccine availability. Our study aimed to evaluate antibody response in Indonesians who had received two doses of the vaccine vs. those who had not. The study design was a cohort study involving 46 unvaccinated people and 23 people who had received the second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine in three months. Methods used for the qualitative and quantitative detection of IgG antibodies included rapid RI-GHA and ELISA tests. Findings showed that positive IgG antibodies qualitatively detected by the rapid RI-GHA test were significantly higher in those vaccinated (60.9%) than in unvaccinated people (26.1%). Using the ELISA assay, all vaccinated individuals qualitatively showed positive antibodies (cut-off ≥4.33 BAU/ml), and the average quantitative titer of anti-SARS-CoV-2 s-RBD IgG was significantly higher in vaccinated (157.06±238.68 BAU/ml) than in unvaccinated (51.90±87.60 BAU/ml) individuals. Some unvaccinated individuals with no history of infection were found to have anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that may have been previously asymptomatic, although their mean antibody titers were certainly lower than those in the 2-dose group. Approximately 56% of vaccinated individuals had antibody titers above 60 BAU/ml as a cut-off for protective threshold, a significantly higher proportion than unvaccinated individuals. In conclusion, vaccination with two doses AstraZeneca increased anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies which resulted in enhanced immunity against symptomatic COVID-19.

Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021-30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050.

Methods

In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model.

Findings

Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535-656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8-8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3-134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4-89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9-67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7-105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1-135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7-557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6-10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3-510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8-6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0-9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI -1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling.

Interpretation

Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Age and Smoking Duration as the Risk Factors for Hypertension among Indonesian Males

Highlights: Data from the Indonesian Family Live Survey 5 were utilized to analyze the incidence of hypertension among males. The most common risk factors of hypertension among Indonesian males are age and smoking duration. Abstract : Hypertension is a silent killer because most people with hypertension are asymptomatic. The global hypertension prevalence among males aged over 18 years increased by 22.8% and 31.34% in 2013 and 2018, respectively. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between age and smoking duration with hypertension incidence among Indonesian males. Studies related to hypertension risk factors have been conducted extensively, but few focus on males. This study included a cross-sectional survey, in which the data were collected through the Indonesian Family Life Survey 5 with a total of 835 participants. The dependent variable was the hypertension incidence among males. The independent variables were age and smoking duration. The data were analyzed through univariate analysis; bivariate analysis using the Chi-square test, simple logistic regression to calculate prevalence ratio (PR) with 95% confidence interval (CI), and Mann-Whitney test; and multivariate analysis using multiple logistic regression. Among the 835 participants, 10.7% (89) were hypertensive. Most of them were working (739), non-Javanese (489), aged over 40 years, and had been smoking for longer (mean=35.30 years). The multivariate regression demonstrated that age (p=0.000; PR=4.715; CI=2.272-8.154) and smoking duration (p=0.000; PR=1.071: CI=1.049-1.094) were significantly related to hypertension incidence. In conclusion, age and smoking duration are variables associated with hypertension incidence among Indonesian males. This indicates that it is very important for the public to know how to take precautions against hypertension in males by knowing its risk factors.

Medium-term outcome of liver recipients from COVID-19 donors

Background

COVID-19 is associated with thrombotic complications and can result in hepatobiliary injury. Excellent early outcomes have been reported in recipients of solid non-lungs organs from SARS-CoV-2-infected donors, however longer follow-up data are lacking. We aimed to describe the medium-term outcome of our liver transplants (LT) from COVID-19 donors.

Methods

From 11/2020 to 03/2022, we consecutively enrolled all patients who received a graft from COVID-19 donor in our Centre. Protocol liver biopsy and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) after 1-year from LT were reported.

Results

In the study period 12/213 (5.6%) adult LT patients received a COVID-19 donor (11 active, 1 resolved COVID-19)¹. Eleven patients underwent end-to-end biliary anastomosis and 1 biliodigestive anastomosis. Recipients’ and donors’ characteristics are reported in table 1. Two recipients tested SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive on nasopharyngeal swab at LT and one was treated with sotrovimab on day-1 after LT. None of the patients developed COVID-19 after LT. One patient underwent hepatic artery thrombectomy at day-1 and died after 320 days for HCC recurrence. Until now: -10 patients underwent protocol MRCP (median time from LT 562 days, IQR 245-614), which showed: 7 no visible abnormalities, 1 donor-recipient's bile duct size discrepancy, 2 caliber changes <50% at the anastomotic level (untreated for the absence of cholestasis); -7 patients underwent protocol liver biopsy (median time from LT 553 days, IQR 311-557) which showed 1 acute cellular rejection (RAI 4/9) successfully treated with steroids; no signs of fibrosis, rejection or biliopathy in the other 6 patients.

Conclusions

11/12 patients who received a LT from COVID-19 donors are alive, without evidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. At a median follow-up of 1.5 years, protocol liver biopsy and MRCP did not show biliopathy, supporting the utilization of COVID-19 donors to expand the donor pool and reduce the waiting list mortality.

Death risk among COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus

Deaths from COVID-19 are increasing in patients with comorbidities. One of the most common comorbidities is diabetes mellitus. The researchers wanted to see how having diabetes affected the mortality rate of COVID-19 participants. This investigation is a case control observational analytical study. Different types of people, called “cases,” and “controls,” complete the research sample. Each group had 68 responders, for a grand total of 136. Medical records from COVID-19 patients treated at Airlangga University Hospital, Surabaya, between March 2020 and September 2021 serve as the study’s secondary data source. The purpose of this study’s data analysis is to calculate an odds ratio. Patients with COVID-19 with concomitant diabetes mellitus had an increased risk of death, and this risk increased with age, gender, and COVID-19 symptoms. In contrast, education, occupation, and laboratory results were not significantly related to mortality among COVID-19 individuals with concomitant diabetes mellitus (GDA status). The results of this study show that COVID-19 patients with concomitant diabetes mellitus are at a higher risk of death if they are over the age of 65, if they are male, and if they have severe symptoms.

Association between percentage of smokers and prevalence of smoking attributable morbidity in Indonesia: one decade after implementation of smoke-free area regulation

BACKGROUND

For more than ten years, Indonesia has health law, one of which states that local governments are mandated to establish Smoke Free Area (SFA). The results of 2018 National Basic Health Research shows tobacco consumption is still quite high and increasing compared to the results of 2007 and 2013 National Basic Health Research. The burden of disease in Indonesia is increasing every year.  METHODS: This study aims to describe SFA regulation and analyze the relationship between the percentage of smokers and the prevalence of smoking attributable morbidity. Data from the 2018 Basic Health Research in Indonesia with the number of units of analysis were 514 districts and cities level. The design of the study was cross-sectional study. The variables analyzed were the percentage of smokers, the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), pneumonia, lung tuberculosis, asthma, and mental emotional disorders. Geographical mapping of the distribution of District/City with Smoking-Free Areas was made using QGIS 3·16.  RESULTS: Around 72% of districts/cities in Indonesia already had local regulations of SFA after more than ten years implementation of the regulation of the health law. There was a significant relationship between the high percentage of smokers and the high prevalence of diabetes (p value: 0·000, PR: 1·342, 95%CI 1·135 to 1·587), hypertension (p value: 0·000, PR 1·631, 95%CI 1·252 to 2·124), and lung tuberculosis (p value: 0·008, PR 1·219, 95%CI 1·049 to 1·417) at the District/City level. However, there was no significant association between URTI, pneumonia, asthma, and mental emotional disorders.

CONCLUSION

The percentage of smokers in an area was associated with diabetes, hypertension, and lung tuberculosis. The implementation of Smoke Free Area should be evaluated.

Secular trend in prevalence and socioeconomic correlates of diabetes in pregnancy in Taiwan

OBJECTIVE

To assess the trend in prevalence and socioeconomic correlates of diabetes in pregnancy (DIP) in Taiwan from 2007 to 2014.

METHODS

In all, 1 606 344 pregnancies, including 199 383 DIP (1693 with pre-pregnancy type 1 diabetes [T1DM], 17 171 with pre-pregnancy type 2 diabetes [T2DM], and 180 519 with gestational diabetes mellitus [GDM]) were investigated. Logistic regression models were performed to identify the covariates significantly associating with DIP.

RESULTS

Over the study period, the prevalence of pre-pregnancy T2DM increased by 568.44%; the prevalence of T1DM and GDM also increased but with a smaller magnitude. However, only the prevalence of pre-pregnancy T2DM showed an increase after socioeconomic variables were considered. Compared with immigrant mothers, native-born mothers had a significantly higher adjusted odds ratio of DIP, particularly pre-pregnancy T1DM (3.33, 95% confidence interval 1.57-7.05). Additionally, indigenous mothers and those from rural areas had a higher prevalence of pre-pregnancy T2DM but lower prevalence of GDM. Lower maternal education and income were associated with higher prevalence of pre-pregnancy T1DM but lower prevalence of pre-pregnancy T2DM and GDM.

CONCLUSION

Socioeconomic variables largely accounted for the increased secular trend in pre-pregnancy T1DM and GDM, but the prevalence of pre-pregnancy T2DM still doubled, which was independent of socioeconomic covariates.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk Factors of Central Obesity in Indonesian Men: A Cross-Sectional Data Study of The Indonesia Family Life Survey 5 (IFLS 5)

Highlights: Low levels o physical activity are the major risk factor of central obesity among Indonesian men. There was a relationship between smoking status,  smoker type, cigarette type, physical activity, and meat consumption frequency and the incidence of central obesity.   Abstract: Obesity is one of the leading health problems in both developed and developing countries. Central obesity can be defined as a condition where excess fat has accumulated in the abdominal area. There are several risk factors that may cause central obesity in men such as smoking habits, physical activity, and dietary habits. This study aimed to analyse the risk factors of central obesity in Indonesian men. This was an analytical observational study using a cross-sectional design. It used secondary data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS 5) with a sample size of 4,648 respondents. The variables studied here were smoking status, type of smoker, type of cigarette, physical activity, and meat consumption frequency. Logistic regression analysis was used. The results of this study showed that the mean age of the respondents was 51 years old. There was a relationship between smoking status (p=0.000), type of smoker (p=0.002), type of cigarette (p=0.000), physical activity (p=0.000), and meat consumption frequency (p=0.024) and the incidence of central obesity. The conclusion of the study was that there was a relationship between smoking status, type of smoker, type of cigarette, physical activity, meat consumption frequency, and the incidence of central obesity, all of which were risk factors of central obesity in Indonesian men. A low level of physical activity was the most prominent risk factor associated with central obesity among Indonesian men. From this study, we suggested controlling the risk factors of central obesity by providing education on the dangers of smoking and the importance of physical activity and a balanced nutritional diet.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990-2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.

METHODS

We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure-response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68-4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117-223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49-17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73-17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22-9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81-8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5.

INTERPRETATION

Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

THE EFFECT OF SMOKING BEHAVIOR ON STROKE CASES IN SURABAYA CITY

Background: Stroke is a disease condition caused by the sudden stopping of the blood supply to the brain, either because of a blockage or ruptured blood vessels. The prevalence of stroke in Indonesia based on Basic health research in 2013 was 7‰ and increased in 2018 to 10.9‰. Purpose: This research aims to determine the effect of smoking behaviour on the prevalence of stroke in Surabaya, Indonesia. Methods: It was a cross-sectional study. The study population included all visitors to nerve poly at Haji Hospital Surabaya. Data were collected from respondents through interviews and patient medical record data from August to September 2019. Univariate and bivariate analyses were done to identify the association between smoking and stroke incidence. Results: A total of 187 people participated in the study. The majority of them were aged ≥ 55 years (78.16%), with 55.17% being male. There is 32.18% active smoker and 28.74% passive smoker for stroke patients. There is an association of the type of non-filter cigarettes with the prevalence of stroke p = 0.01, PR = 4.02; 95% Cl = 1.38-11.67), and duration of exposure ≥30 years (p = 0.01, PR = 7.84; 95% Cl = 2.75-22.32) Conclusion: there is an influence of types of non-filter cigarettes and exposure time ≥ 30 years with the incidence of stroke in the city of Surabaya.

Risk Factors for Adolescent Pregnancy in the New Normal Era of the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Case-Control Study

Cases of early marriage are reported to have increased during the pandemic due to stressed teenagers with the pressure of online learning. The increase in this number plays a role in increasing the risk of teenage pregnancy. This study aimed to analyse the risk factors for adolescent pregnancies during the new normal era of the COVID-19 pandemic. A case-control design using a simple random sampling technique involved 40 pregnant adolescents aged 15-19 years and 80 non-pregnant adolescents during the online learning period (July 2021 to January 2022) in Ngawi Regency, Indonesia. Data obtained from interviews were analysed to find Odds Ratio (OR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI). Results showed factors associated with adolescent pregnancies were underpaid parental income (OR 4.00, 95%CI 1.64–9.74), authoritarian and permissive parenting (OR 12.75, 95%CI 4.71–34.46), lack of exposure to media about reproductive health (OR 7.91, 95%CI 3.32–18.84), risky dating behaviour (OR 37.09, 95%CI 4.86–283.25), and smoking habit (OR 5.57, 95%CI 1.03–30.12). Preventing adolescent pregnancies could be done through public health education focusing on adolescent communities, parent-child discussion on reproductive health, as well as exposure to educative media related to reproductive health and the impacts of juvenile delinquency.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Determinants of hepatitis A infection among students: A case study of an outbreak in Jember, Indonesia

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis A often occurs in school among students in the form of an outbreak. The transmission was through fecal-oral (Common Source) provided that the epidemic curve is close to propagated. The aim of the current study was to analyze the determinants of Hepatitis A Infection among students. Design and methods: This study was a case-control study which was conducted at SMAN Plus with a sample size of 80 students chosen by using simple random sampling. The data obtained were then analyzed using logistic regression with 95% confidence level (α = 0.05), while the strength of the relationship between variables was identified using Odds Ratio (OR).

RESULTS

 Most of the students were at the age of 17 to 19 years old (65%) and male (57.5%). The average age in the case group was 17.1 years old, while in the control group was 16.75 years old. The habit of consuming raw foods (p = 0.001) as well as eating and drink at the same time during an activity (p = 0.000) had a significant influence on the outbreak of Hepatitis A in the curve epidemic of common source.

CONCLUSIONS

 The outbreak is confirmed as a transmission occurs through fecal-oral which the common source epidemic curve. Risk factors that have been proven to be related to Hepatitis A include consuming raw food, eating shared meals during an activity, and drinking with shared drinking utensils.

Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Taiwan From 1998 Through 2014

Background

To investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Taiwanese patients with type 1 diabetes.

Methods

A cohort of 17,203 patients with type 1 diabetes were identified from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance claims in the period of 1998–2014. Person-years were accumulated for each individual from date of type 1 diabetes registration to date of death or the last day of 2014. Age, sex, and calendar year standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated with reference to the general population.

Results

In up to 17 years of follow-up, 4,916 patients died from 182,523 person-years. Diabetes (30.15%), cancer (20.48%), circulatory diseases (13.14%), and renal diseases (11.45%) were the leading underlying causes of death. Mortality rate (26.93 per 1,000 person-years) from type 1 diabetes in Taiwan was high, the cause of death with the highest mortality rate was diabetes (8.12 per 1,000 person-years), followed by cancer (5.52 per 1,000 person-years), and circulatory diseases (3.54 per 1,000 person-years). The all-cause SMR was significantly elevated at 4.16 (95% confidence interval, 4.04–4.28), with a greater all-cause SMR noted in females than in males (4.62 vs 3.79). The cause-specific SMR was highly elevated for diabetes (SMR, 16.45), followed by renal disease (SMR, 14.48), chronic hepatitis and liver cirrhosis (SMR, 4.91) and infection (SMR, 4.59). All-cause SMRs were also significantly increased for all ages, with the greatest figure noted for 15–24 years (SMR, 8.46).

Conclusions

Type 1 diabetes in both genders and all ages was associated with significantly elevated SMRs for all-cause and mostly for diabetes per se and renal disease.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Durability of Dolutegravir-Based Regimens: A 5-Year Prospective Observational Study

This study evaluates the frequency and causes of dolutegravir (DTG) discontinuation along 5 years of follow-up, in both antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naive and experienced people living with HIV (PLWH). This is a prospective multi-center cohort study enrolling PLWH on DTG from July 2014 until November 2020. DTG-durability was investigated using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve. The Cox proportional-hazards model was used for estimating the hazard ratio (HR) of DTG discontinuation for any cause, and for adverse events (AEs). Nine hundred sixty-three PLWH were included, 25.3% were women and 28.0% were ART-naive. Discontinuations for any causes were 10.1 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 8.9-11.5] per 100 person-years, similar in most regimens, with the apparent exception of tenofovir alafenamide/emtricitabine+DTG (p < 0.0001). In the multivariable Cox regression model, non-Caucasian ethnicity, age ≥50 years, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were associated with a higher probability of DTG interruption. The incidence rate of virological failure was 0.4 (95% CI 0.2-0.7) per 100 person-years, while the estimated discontinuation rate for AEs was 4.0 (3.2-4.9) per 100 person-years. Thirty-four DTG interruptions were due to grade ≥3 events (10 central nervous system, 6 hypersensitivity, 3 renal, 3 myalgia/asthenia, 3 abdominal pain, 2 gastrointestinal, and 7 other events). People with lower body mass index, age ≥50 years, and lower eGFR were at higher risk of AEs, while dual combinations were protective (HR 0.41 compared with abacavir/lamivudine/DTG, 95% CI 0.22-0.77). In this prospective observational study, we found high DTG durability and a low rate of virological failures. Dual therapies seemed protective toward AEs and might be considered, when feasible, a suitable option to minimize drug interactions and improve tolerability.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Smoking from a Younger Age Is the Dominant Factor in the Incidence of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Case-Control Study

Background: Indonesia ranks 7th highest in the world for the number of deaths caused by tobacco use including those caused by Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of initial smoking age and habit on the incidence of COPD. Methods: This research was a case-control study. The sampling in this research took a systematic random sampling method. The samples of this study were 56 respondents of a case group and 56 respondents of a control group. This study was conducted at Ngudi Waluyo Hospital, Wlingi, Blitar from October to November 2017. Results: The factors that influenced the incidence of COPD were being male (p = 0.00; OR = 6.333; 95%CI = 2.776–14.450), a smoker (p = 0.00050; OR = 5.1318; 95%CI = 1.9004–13.8958), initially smoking at <15 years old (p = 0.00; OR = 11,769; 95%CI = 4.086–33.903), initially getting into a smoking habit at the age of <15 years old (OR = 12; CI = 1346–106,950), initially getting into a smoking habit at the age of ≥15 years old (OR = 3647; CI = 1625–8183) and having smoked for ≥30 years (OR = 8857; CI = 3298–23,787). Conclusion: There are three factors of smoking behavior that influence COPD: smoking habit, initial smoking age and smoking duration. Of all factors, forming a smoking habit at the age of <15 years old has the biggest risk (OR = 12; CI = 1346–106,950).

A Study on Community Economic Resilience in Response to Earthquakes in Jailolo Sub-District, North Maluku

Background: The earthquake that hit the Jailolo sub-district in 2015 caused massive damage and loss. This catastrophic event affected not only impacted the local government's economy but also affected many communities, households and individuals living in these communities. Purpose: Aim of this study is to assess the economic resilience of communities in the Jailolo sub-district in response to earthquakes. Methods: This research was based on a descriptive observational study and employed a survey method to assess the economic resilience of communities in the Jailolo sub-district. The study was conducted in five villages, namely Tedeng, Payo, Saria, Matui, and Buku Maadu. The cut-off point for each indicator was classified as very high criteria (>1.05), high (0.95–1.05), moderate (0.85–0.94), low (0.74–0.84), and very low (≤0.73). Results: The proportion of community home ownership was found to be 100% (Resilience Factor Index (RFI)=1.67). The proportion of community work was 33.75% (RFI=0.68). The proportion of dual-income sources of communities in the Jailolo sub-district was 50.89% (RFI=1.02). The proportion of community income that exceeded the provincial minimum wage (PMW) was 8.71% (RFI=0.10). Based on the results of these indicators, the economic resilience of people in the Jailolo sub-district, which was obtained by considering the average RFI of each indicator, was 0.86. Conclusion: Community economic resilience in the Jailolo sub-district was found to be in the medium category. The highest and lowest resilience factors resulted from home ownership and income, respectively.

Relationship between Exposure to Cigarette Smoke in Houses and The Incidence of Hypertension in Housewives

Background: Hypertension is still a major health problem in the world. One of the factors causing hypertension is exposure to cigarette smoke. Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between cigarette smoke exposure and the incidence of hypertension in housewives in houses in Dampit village. Methods: This research adopted an analytical observational approach. This was a cross-sectional design study. The population for this study was all housewives in Dampit village in March 2020. A total number of 115 housewives was selected using the cluster proportional random sampling technique. The dependent variable was the incidence of hypertension; the independent variables were the duration of cigarette smoke exposure in houses, the number of instances contact was made by being in close proximity to smokers, and the contact duration with smokers. Data collection was done by interviewing respondents using a questionnaire. Data analysis was carried out using frequency tables and Epi Info. Results: The study indicated that there was a relationship between the duration of cigarette smoke exposure (over 33 years) in houses with the incidence of hypertension in housewives (p=0.01; OR=3.52; 95%CI=1.53–8.05). Similarly, there was a relationship established between the number of occasions contact was made by being in close proximity to smokers every day (over three times every day) (p=0.01; OR=36; 95%CI=7.64–168.76) and the contact duration with smokers (p=0.01; OR=8.09; 95%CI=3.13–20.87) with the incidence of hypertension in housewives. Conclusion: There was a link between the duration of cigarette smoke exposure in houses, the number of instances of being in close proximity to smokers every day, and the contact duration with smokers with the incidence of hypertension in housewives in Dampit village.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of three sticky traps to monitor four species of cockroaches (Hexapoda: Blattaria) with simulated use tests

Background

Cockroaches are the pest of major concern for the disinfestation programs of the sanitary system in Italy. Hygienic-sanitary interest is linked to the role of mechanical vectors of pathogens and to their allergological potential. Sticky traps are the best tool to monitor the presence of these insects and several types of them are available on the market. In most of the cases the traps are not indicated for a given species, but, instead, generically for cockroaches. Domestic cockroaches differ in morphology, size and habits. Consequently, the effectiveness of the trap can change in relation to the target species.

Materials and methods

In this study three of the most employed traps in Italy were compared: the INDIA trap with and without its attractant tablet (hereafter mentioned as INDIA-A and INDIA-E, respectively), the ZAPI Simply trap and the CATCHMASTER Spider & Insect Glue trap. We chose the four most common species of cockroach (Blattodea) in Italy, Blatta orientalis (L.), Periplaneta americana (L.) (Blattidae), Blattella germanica (L.) and Supella longipalpa (F.) (Blattellidae). Each species of cockroach was tested separately inside arenas containing one of the traps. Each test (one species with one kind of trap) was replicated five times.

Results and discussion

The INDIA-A trap collected more cockroaches of every species, followed by the INDIA-E. The ZAPI trap caught less specimens of each species in respect to the INDIA traps, with the only exception of B. orientalis, for which the ZAPI trap caught more than the INDIA-E. The CATCHMASTER trap performed significantly less for all the species. B. orientalis was the species most abundantly caught by all traps, followed by B. germanica, S. longipalpa and P. americana. No significant difference was observed in the catch according to the developmental stage. In general, there was no particular predisposition of any trap to catch a particular species.

Conclusions

It is not possible to indicate a model of trap for each species of cockroach, but it is clear that different traps have different performances in terms of attractiveness and capture. Therefore, the choice of the trap affects the results of the monitoring, and as consequence, the evaluation of the infesting population of the pest.

Insects and SARS-CoV-2: Analysis of the Potential Role of Vectors in European Countries

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus responsible for the pandemic that developed in China in late 2019. Transmission of the virus is predominantly direct, through exposure to infected respiratory secretions. As far as we know, arthropods play a key role in the transmission and spread of several viruses, and thus their role in the spread of COVID-19 deserves to be studied. The biological transmission of viral agents through insects is very complex. While mechanical transmission is more likely to happen, biological transmission is possible via blood-sucking arthropods, but this requires a high grade of compatibility between the vector and the pathogen. If the biological and mechanical transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by blood-sucking arthropods is excluded, a mechanical transmission by urban pests could take place. This risk is very low but it could be important in isolated environmental conditions, where other means of transmission are not possible. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 in non-blood-sucking arthropods in infected buildings, like hospitals and retirement homes, should be investigated.

COMPARING SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF MOTHER AND CHILDREN WITH LEPROSY IN ENDEMIC AND NON-ENDEMIC AREAS IN EAST JAVA, INDONESIA

Background

Leprosy is a disease that causes social, psychological, and economic issues. Failure to treat the causes of the immune system dysregulation in endemic areas of leprosy conditions makes the transmission of the bacteria easier. This paper aims to analyze the comparison of family income, occupation types of mothers and fathers, number of children, access to health facilities, and education of mothers, fathers, and children in mothers and children with leprosy in endemic and non-endemic areas.

Materials and Methods

A cross sectional study by survey was done in both an endemic and a non-endemic area of leprosy in Tuban Regency, East Java, Indonesia. Retrieval of research data was done using interview techniques. Respondents who participated in this study were 106 pairs of mother and child respondents who met the research restriction criteria. Subjects were divided into 5groups based on diagnosis of leprosy and area of living. Bivariate analysis was performed by comparing the independent variables in each group A, B, C, and D with group E.

Results

It was found that the variables that differed significantly between the endemic and non-endemic areas were the variable number of children with a p-value=0.004, family income with a p-value=0.049 and the variable mother's education with a p-value=0.016. Meanwhile, other variables do not have significant difference.

Conclusions

We found significant difference on the number of children, father's education, mother's education, and family income. These variables can be a risk factor for leprosy. To make efforts to prevent the transmission of leprosy, stakeholders should consider these factors.

Association between trajectory of severe hypoglycemia and dementia in patients with type 2 diabetes: A population-based study

Background

We aimed to investigate associations between exposure to various trajectories of severe hypoglycemic events and risk of dementia in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Methods

In 2002–2003, 677,618 patients in Taiwan were newly diagnosed as having type 2 diabetes. Among them, 35,720 (5.3%) experienced severe hypoglycemic events during the 3-year baseline period following diagnosis. All patients were followed from the first day after baseline period to the date of dementia diagnosis, death, or the end of 2011. A group-based trajectory model was used to classify individuals with severe hypoglycemic events during the baseline period. Cox proportional hazard models with the competing risk method were used to relate dementia risk to various severe hypoglycemia trajectories.

Results

After a median follow-up 6.70 and 6.10 years for patients with and without severe hypoglycemia at baseline, respectively, 1,952 (5.5%) individuals with severe hypoglycemia and 23,492 (3.7%) without developed dementia during follow-up, for incidence rates of 109.80 and 61.88 per 10,000 person-years, respectively. Four groups of severe hypoglycemia trajectory were identified with a proportion of 18.06%, 33.19%, 43.25%, and 5.50%, respectively, for Groups 1 to 4. Groups 3 (early manifestation but with later decrease) and 4 (early and sustained manifestation) were associated with a significantly increased risk of dementia diagnosis, with a covariate-adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio of 1.22 (95% confidence interval, 1.14–1.31) and 1.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.54), respectively.

Conclusion

Our analysis highlighted that early manifestation of severe hypoglycemic events may contribute more than does late manifestation to the risk of dementia among individuals newly diagnosed as having type 2 diabetes.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Incidence of idiopathic cardiomyopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes in Taiwan: age, sex, and urbanization status-stratified analysis

Background

The epidemiology of diabetes and idiopathic cardiomyopathy have limited data. We investigated the overall and the age-, sex-, and urbanization-specific incidence and relative hazard of idiopathic cardiomyopathy in association with type 2 diabetes and various anti-diabetic medications used in Taiwan.

Methods

A total of 474,268 patients with type 2 diabetes were identified from ambulatory care and inpatient claims in 2007–2009 from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance (NHI) database. We randomly selected 474,266 age-, sex-, and diagnosis date-matched controls from the registry of NHI beneficiaries. All study subjects were linked to ambulatory care and inpatient claims (up to the end of 2016) to identify the possible diagnosis of idiopathic cardiomyopathy. The person-year approach with Poisson assumption was used to estimate the incidence, and Cox proportional hazard regression model with Fine and Gray’s method was used to estimate the relative hazards of idiopathic cardiomyopathy in relation to type 2 diabetes.

Results

The overall incidence of idiopathic cardiomyopathy for men and women patients, respectively, was 3.83 and 2.94 per 10,000 person-years, which were higher than the corresponding men and women controls (2.00 and 1.34 per 10,000 person-years). Compared with the control group, patients with type 2 diabetes were significantly associated with an increased hazard of idiopathic cardiomyopathy (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.60, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.45–1.77] in all age and sex stratifications except in those men aged > 64 years. Patients with type 2 diabetes aged < 45 years confronted the greatest increase in the hazard of idiopathic cardiomyopathy, with an aHR of 3.35 (95% CI 2.21–5.06) and 3.48 (95% CI 1.60–7.56) for men and women, respectively. The usage of some anti-diabetic medications revealed lower risks of idiopathic cardiomyopathy.

Conclusions

In Taiwan, diabetes increased the risk of idiopathic cardiomyopathy in both sexes and in all age groups, except in men aged > 64 years. Younger patients were vulnerable to have higher HRs of idiopathic cardiomyopathy. Some anti-diabetic medications may reduce the risks of cardiomyopathy.

Cavitation clusters in lipid systems - Ring-up, bubble population, and bifurcated streamer lifetime

The processing of oils is vital to their ultimate use within the food industry. Control over the physical properties of such materials could be achieved through the application of high-intensity ultrasound (HIU). However, the exact mechanism, centred upon acoustic cavitation, is currently unclear. To investigate the cavitation environment in oils further, the ring-up of a HIU source in an oil media is studied in the presence and absence of a pre-existing bubble population. High-speed imaging and acoustic measurements within the system is demonstrated to be extremely useful in characterising the dynamics present under non steady-state conditions. The behaviour of the clusters generated in the first 1000 ms under these conditions is shown to be significantly different depending on the bubble population. A bifurcated streamer (BiS), originating from a unique bi-cluster event, is only observable in the presence of a bubble population during the ring-up process to higher cluster orders. In addition, the lifetime of this BiS event is highly temperature dependent and is shown to be a good marker for the viscosity of the oil employed.