A comprehensive SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 review, Part 2: host extracellular to systemic effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection

COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, has caused significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. The betacoronavirus continues to evolve with global health implications as we race to learn more to curb its transmission, evolution, and sequelae. The focus of this review, the second of a three-part series, is on the biological effects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on post-acute disease in the context of tissue and organ adaptations and damage. We highlight the current knowledge and describe how virological, animal, and clinical studies have shed light on the mechanisms driving the varied clinical diagnoses and observations of COVID-19 patients. Moreover, we describe how investigations into SARS-CoV-2 effects have informed the understanding of viral pathogenesis and provide innovative pathways for future research on the mechanisms of viral diseases.

Optimizing ancestral trait reconstruction of large HIV Subtype C datasets through multiple-trait subsampling

Large datasets along with sampling bias represent a challenge for phylodynamic reconstructions, particularly when the study data are obtained from various heterogeneous sources and/or through convenience sampling. In this study, we evaluate the presence of unbalanced sampled distribution by collection date, location, and risk group of human immunodeficiency virus Type 1 Subtype C using a comprehensive subsampling strategy and assess their impact on the reconstruction of the viral spatial and risk group dynamics using phylogenetic comparative methods. Our study shows that a most suitable dataset for ancestral trait reconstruction can be obtained through subsampling by all available traits, particularly using multigene datasets. We also demonstrate that sampling bias is inflated when considerable information for a given trait is unavailable or of poor quality, as we observed for the trait risk group. In conclusion, we suggest that, even if traits are not well recorded, including them deliberately optimizes the representativeness of the original dataset rather than completely excluding them. Therefore, we advise the inclusion of as many traits as possible with the aid of subsampling approaches in order to optimize the dataset for phylodynamic analysis while reducing the computational burden. This will benefit research communities investigating the evolutionary and spatio-temporal patterns of infectious diseases.

Sequential viral introductions and spread of BA.1 across Pakistan provinces during the Omicron wave

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 waves caused by specific SARS-CoV-2 variants have occurred globally at different times. We focused on Omicron variants to understand the genomic diversity and phylogenetic relatedness of SARS-CoV-2 strains in various regions of Pakistan.

METHODS

We studied 276,525 COVID-19 cases and 1,031 genomes sequenced from December 2021 to August 2022. Sequences were analyzed and visualized using phylogenetic trees.

RESULTS

The highest case numbers and deaths were recorded in Sindh and Punjab, the most populous provinces in Pakistan. Omicron variants comprised 93% of all genomes, with BA.2 (32.6%) and BA.5 (38.4%) predominating. The first Omicron wave was associated with the sequential identification of BA.1 in Sindh, then Islamabad Capital Territory, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK), Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Balochistan. Phylogenetic analysis revealed Sindh to be the source of BA.1 and BA.2 introductions into Punjab and Balochistan during early 2022. BA.4 was first introduced in AJK and BA.5 in Punjab. Most recent common ancestor (MRCA) analysis revealed relatedness between the earliest BA.1 genome from Sindh with Balochistan, AJK, Punjab and ICT, and that of first BA.1 from Punjab with strains from KPK and GB.

CONCLUSIONS

Phylogenetic analysis provides insights into the introduction and transmission dynamics of the Omicron variant in Pakistan, identifying Sindh as a hotspot for viral dissemination. Such data linked with public health efforts can help limit surges of new infections.

Accelerating Bayesian inference of dependency between mixed-type biological traits

Inferring dependencies between mixed-type biological traits while accounting for evolutionary relationships between specimens is of great scientific interest yet remains infeasible when trait and specimen counts grow large. The state-of-the-art approach uses a phylogenetic multivariate probit model to accommodate binary and continuous traits via a latent variable framework, and utilizes an efficient bouncy particle sampler (BPS) to tackle the computational bottleneck-integrating many latent variables from a high-dimensional truncated normal distribution. This approach breaks down as the number of specimens grows and fails to reliably characterize conditional dependencies between traits. Here, we propose an inference pipeline for phylogenetic probit models that greatly outperforms BPS. The novelty lies in 1) a combination of the recent Zigzag Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (Zigzag-HMC) with linear-time gradient evaluations and 2) a joint sampling scheme for highly correlated latent variables and correlation matrix elements. In an application exploring HIV-1 evolution from 535 viruses, the inference requires joint sampling from an 11,235-dimensional truncated normal and a 24-dimensional covariance matrix. Our method yields a 5-fold speedup compared to BPS and makes it possible to learn partial correlations between candidate viral mutations and virulence. Computational speedup now enables us to tackle even larger problems: we study the evolution of influenza H1N1 glycosylations on around 900 viruses. For broader applicability, we extend the phylogenetic probit model to incorporate categorical traits, and demonstrate its use to study Aquilegia flower and pollinator co-evolution.

Global dissemination of influenza A virus is driven by wild bird migration through arctic and subarctic zones

Influenza A viruses (IAV) circulate endemically among many wild aquatic bird populations that seasonally migrate between wintering grounds in southern latitudes to breeding ranges along the perimeter of the circumpolar arctic. Arctic and subarctic zones are hypothesized to serve as ecologic drivers of the intercontinental movement and reassortment of IAVs due to high densities of disparate populations of long distance migratory and native bird species present during breeding seasons. Iceland is a staging ground that connects the East Atlantic and North Atlantic American flyways, providing a unique study system for characterizing viral flow between eastern and western hemispheres. Using Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we sought to evaluate the viral connectivity of Iceland to proximal regions and how inter-species transmission and reassortment dynamics in this region influence the geographic spread of low and highly pathogenic IAVs. Findings demonstrate that IAV movement in the arctic and subarctic reflects wild bird migration around the perimeter of the circumpolar north, favouring short-distance flights between proximal regions rather than long distance flights over the polar interior. Iceland connects virus movement between mainland Europe and North America, consistent with the westward migration of wild birds from mainland Europe to Northeastern Canada and Greenland. Though virus diffusion rates were similar among avian taxonomic groups in Iceland, gulls play an outsized role as sinks of IAVs from other avian hosts prior to onward migration. These data identify patterns of virus movement in northern latitudes and inform future surveillance strategies related to seasonal and emergent IAVs with potential public health concern.

COVID-19 Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT): Exposure quantification based on ventilation, infection prevalence, group characteristics, and behavior

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT) allows users to compare respiratory relative risk to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) for various scenarios, providing understanding of how combinations of protective measures affect risk. CEAT incorporates mechanistic, stochastic, and epidemiological factors including the (i) emission rate of virus, (ii) viral aerosol degradation and removal, (iii) duration of activity/exposure, (iv) inhalation rates, (v) ventilation rates (indoors/outdoors), (vi) volume of indoor space, (vii) filtration, (viii) mask use and effectiveness, (ix) distance between people (taking into account both near-field and far-field effects of proximity), (x) group size, (xi) current infection rates by variant, (xii) prevalence of infection and immunity in the community, (xiii) vaccination rates, and (xiv) implementation of COVID-19 testing procedures. CEAT applied to published studies of COVID-19 transmission events demonstrates the model's accuracy. We also show how health and safety professionals at NASA Ames Research Center used CEAT to manage potential risks posed by SARS-CoV-2 exposures.

Origins and Evolution of Seasonal Human Coronaviruses

Four seasonal human coronaviruses (sHCoVs) are endemic globally (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1), accounting for 5-30% of human respiratory infections. However, the epidemiology and evolution of these CoVs remain understudied due to their association with mild symptomatology. Using a multigene and complete genome analysis approach, we find the evolutionary histories of sHCoVs to be highly complex, owing to frequent recombination of CoVs including within and between sHCoVs, and uncertain, due to the under sampling of non-human viruses. The recombination rate was highest for 229E and OC43 whereas substitutions per recombination event were highest in NL63 and HKU1. Depending on the gene studied, OC43 may have ungulate, canine, or rabbit CoV ancestors. 229E may have origins in a bat, camel, or an unsampled intermediate host. HKU1 had the earliest common ancestor (1809-1899) but fell into two distinct clades (genotypes A and B), possibly representing two independent transmission events from murine-origin CoVs that appear to be a single introduction due to large gaps in the sampling of CoVs in animals. In fact, genotype B was genetically more diverse than all the other sHCoVs. Finally, we found shared amino acid substitutions in multiple proteins along the non-human to sHCoV host-jump branches. The complex evolution of CoVs and their frequent host switches could benefit from continued surveillance of CoVs across non-human hosts.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in a pediatric cohort of unvaccinated children in Mérida, Yucatán, México

The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in children during the global COVID-19 pandemic has been underestimated due to lack of testing and the relatively mild symptoms in adolescents. Understanding the exposure rates in the pediatric population is essential as children are the last to receive vaccines and can act as a source for SARS-CoV-2 mutants that may threaten vaccine escape. This cross-sectional study aims to quantify the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 serum antibodies in children in a major city in México in the Spring of 2021 and determine if there are any demographic or socioeconomic correlating factors. We obtained socioeconomic information and blood samples from 1,005 children from 50 neighborhood clusters in Mérida, Yucatán, México. We then tested the sera of these participants for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM antibodies using lateral flow immunochromatography. We found that 25.5% of children in our cohort were positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and there was no correlation between age and antibody prevalence. Children that lived with large families were statistically more likely to have antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Spatial analyses identified two hotspots of high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the west of the city. These results indicate that a large urban population of unvaccinated children has been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and that a major correlating factor was the number of people within the child's household with a minor correlation with particular geographical hotspots. There is also a larger population of children that may be susceptible to future infection upon easing of social distancing measures. These findings suggest that in future pandemic scenarios, limited public health resources can be best utilized on children living in large households in urban areas.

Ecological divergence of wild birds drives avian influenza spillover and global spread

The diversity of influenza A viruses (IAV) is primarily hosted by two highly divergent avian orders: Anseriformes (ducks, swans and geese) and Charadriiformes (gulls, terns and shorebirds). Studies of IAV have historically focused on Anseriformes, specifically dabbling ducks, overlooking the diversity of hosts in nature, including gull and goose species that have successfully adapted to human habitats. This study sought to address this imbalance by characterizing spillover dynamics and global transmission patterns of IAV over 10 years at greater taxonomic resolution than previously considered. Furthermore, the circulation of viral subtypes in birds that are either host-adapted (low pathogenic H13, H16) or host-generalist (highly pathogenic avian influenza—HPAI H5) provided a unique opportunity to test and extend models of viral evolution. Using Bayesian phylodynamic modelling we uncovered a complex transmission network that relied on ecologically divergent bird hosts. The generalist subtype, HPAI H5 was driven largely by wild geese and swans that acted as a source for wild ducks, gulls, land birds, and domestic geese. Gulls were responsible for moving HPAI H5 more rapidly than any other host, a finding that may reflect their long-distance, pelagic movements and their immuno-naïve status against this subtype. Wild ducks, long viewed as primary hosts for spillover, occupied an optimal space for viral transmission, contributing to geographic expansion and rapid dispersal of HPAI H5. Evidence of inter-hemispheric dispersal via both the Pacific and Atlantic Rims was detected, supporting surveillance at high latitudes along continental margins to achieve early detection. Both neutral (geographic expansion) and non-neutral (antigenic selection) evolutionary processes were found to shape subtype evolution which manifested as unique geographic hotspots for each subtype at the global scale. This study reveals how a diversity of avian hosts contribute to viral spread and spillover with the potential to improve surveillance in an era of rapid global change.

Our study provides novel insights into the biology of influenza A virus (IAV), which is timely in view of the unusually large number of animal and human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 across Europe, Asia, Africa and North America. Currently we face challenges with predicting how the avian reservoir will influence IAV spread because the mechanisms by which different subtypes disperse are not well understood. Our study sought to address this knowledge gap by systematically comparing the evolutionary dynamics that drive IAV transmission across subtypes and bird hosts with the goal of identifying spillover pathways at the wild-domestic interface. By analyzing the evolution of IAV over 10 years at greater taxonomic resolution than previously considered, we uncovered a complex transmission network that relied on ecologically divergent bird hosts. Domestic birds were responsible for slow but steady range expansion of HPAI H5, while wild birds such as geese, swans, gulls and ducks contibuted to rapid but episodic dispersal via uniquely different pathways. By assessing how virus-host systems are coupled, findings from this study have the potential to refine and enhance global surveillance and outbreak prediction.

A comprehensive SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 review, Part 1: Intracellular overdrive for SARS-CoV-2 infection

COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, has claimed approximately 5 million lives and 257 million cases reported globally. This virus and disease have significantly affected people worldwide, whether directly and/or indirectly, with a virulent pathogen that continues to evolve as we race to learn how to prevent, control, or cure COVID-19. The focus of this review is on the SARS-CoV-2 virus' mechanism of infection and its proclivity at adapting and restructuring the intracellular environment to support viral replication. We highlight current knowledge and how scientific communities with expertize in viral, cellular, and clinical biology have contributed to increase our understanding of SARS-CoV-2, and how these findings may help explain the widely varied clinical observations of COVID-19 patients.

Epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Africa

There is a dearth of information on COVID-19 disease dynamics in Africa. To fill this gap, we investigated the epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the continent. We retrieved 5229 complete genomes collected in 33 African countries from the GISAID database. We investigated the circulating diversity, reconstructed the viral evolutionary divergence and history, and studied the case and death trends in the continent. Almost a fifth (144/782, 18.4%) of Pango lineages found worldwide circulated in Africa, with five different lineages dominating over time. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that African viruses cluster more closely with those from Europe. We also identified two motifs that could function as integrin-binding sites and N-glycosylation domains. These results shed light on the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of the circulating viral diversity in Africa. They also emphasize the need to expand surveillance efforts in Africa to help inform and implement better public health measures.

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SARS-CoV-2 viruses from Africa cluster predominantly with European strains

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Lower viral diversity observed in Africa is likely due to genomic under-surveillance

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Number of cases, deaths, and testing show substantial heterogeneity across Africa

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Two motifs could function as integrin-binding sites and N-glycosylation domains

Evolutionary History and Introduction of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha VOC/B.1.1.7 in Pakistan Through International Travelers

SARS-CoV-2 variants continue to emerge, and their identification is important for the public health response to COVID-19. Genomic sequencing provides robust information but may not always be accessible and therefore rapid mutation-based PCR approaches can be used to identify known variants. International travelers arriving in Karachi between December 2020 and February 2021 were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR. A subset of positive samples was tested for S-Gene Target Failure (SGTF) on TaqPathTM COVID-19 (Thermo Fisher Scientific) and for mutations using the GSD NovaType SARS-CoV-2 (Eurofins Technologies) assays. Sequencing was conducted on the MinION platform (Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT). Bayesian phylogeographic inference was performed integrating the patients’ travel history information. Of the thirty-five COVID-19 cases screened, thirteen had isolates with SGTF. The travelers transmitted infection to sixty-eight contact cases. The B.1.1.7 lineage was confirmed through sequencing and PCR. Phylogenetic analysis of sequence data available for six cases included four B.1.1.7 strains and one B.1.36 and B.1.1.212 lineage isolate, respectively. Phylogeographic modeling estimated at least three independent B.1.1.7 introductions into Karachi, Pakistan, originating from the UK. B.1.1.212 and B.1.36 were inferred to be introduced either from the UK or the travelers’ layover location. We report the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 and other lineages in Pakistan by international travelers arriving via different flight routes. This highlights SARS-CoV-2 transmission through travel, importance of testing and quarantine post-travel to prevent transmission of new strains, as well as recording detailed patients’ metadata. Such results help inform policies on restricting travel from destinations where new highly transmissible variants have emerged.

Covid-19 Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT): Easy-to-use tool to quantify exposure based on airflow, group behavior, and infection prevalence in the community.. [PMID: 35291295 PMCID: PMC8923112 DOI: 10.1101/2022.03.02.22271806] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

The COVID-19 Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT) allows users to compare respiratory relative risk to SARS-CoV-2 for various scenarios, providing understanding of how combinations of protective measures affect exposure, dose, and risk. CEAT incorporates mechanistic, stochastic and epidemiological factors including the: 1) emission rate of virus, 2) viral aerosol degradation and removal, 3) duration of activity/exposure, 4) inhalation rates, 5) ventilation rates (indoors/outdoors), 6) volume of indoor space, 7) filtration, 8) mask use and effectiveness, 9) distance between people, 10) group size, 11) current infection rates by variant, 12) prevalence of infection and immunity in the community, 13) vaccination rates of the community, and 14) implementation of COVID-19 testing procedures. Demonstration of CEAT, from published studies of COVID-19 transmission events, shows the model accurately predicts transmission. We also show how health and safety professionals at NASA Ames Research Center used CEAT to manage potential risks posed by SARS-CoV-2 exposures. Given its accuracy and flexibility, the wide use of CEAT will have a long lasting beneficial impact in managing both the current COVID-19 pandemic as well as a variety of other scenarios.

The Emergence and Transmission Dynamics of HIV-1 CRF07_BC in Mainland China

A total of 1155 partial pol gene sequences of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 CRF07_BC were sampled between 1997 and 2015, spanning 13 provinces in Mainland China and risk groups [heterosexual, injecting drug users (IDU), and men who have sex with men (MSM)] to investigate the evolution, adaptation, spatiotemporal and risk group dynamics, migration patterns, and protein structure of HIV-1 CRF07_BC. Due to the unequal distribution of sequences across time, location, and risk group in the complete dataset (‘full1155’), subsampling methods were used. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis as well as discrete trait analysis of geographical location and risk group were carried out. To study mutations of a cluster of HIV-1 CRF07_BC (CRF07-1), we performed a comparative analysis of this cluster to the other CRF07_BC sequences (‘backbone_295’) and mapped the mutations observed in the respective protein structure. Our findings showed that HIV-1 CRF07_BC most likely originated among IDU in Yunnan Province between October 1992 to July 1993 [95 per cent hightest posterior density (HPD): May 1989–August 1995] and that IDU in Yunnan Province and MSM in Guangdong Province likely served as the viral sources during the early and more recent spread in Mainland China. We also revealed that HIV-1 CRF07-1 has been spreading for roughly 20 years and continues to cause local transmission in Mainland China and worldwide. Overall, our study sheds light on the dynamics of HIV-1 CRF07_BC distribution patterns in Mainland China. Our research may also be useful in formulating public health policies aimed at controlling acquired immune deficiency syndrome in Mainland China and globally.

Genetic lineage characterization and spatiotemporal dynamics of classical insect-specific flaviviruses: outcomes and limitations

The genus Flavivirus incorporates bona fide arboviruses, as well as others viruses with restricted replication in insect cells. Among the latter, a large monophyletic cluster of viruses, known as cISF (classical insect-specific flaviviruses), has been sampled in many species of mosquitoes collected over a large geographic range. In this study, we investigated nucleotide and protein sequences with a suite of molecular characterization approaches including genetic distance, Shannon entropy, selective pressure analysis, polymorphism identification, principal coordinate analysis, likelihood mapping, phylodynamic reconstruction, and spatiotemporal dispersal, to further characterize this diverse group of insect-viruses. The different lineages and sub-lineages of viral sequences presented low sequence diversity and entropy (though some displayed lineage-specific polymorphisms), did not show evidence of frequent recombination and evolved under strong purifying selection. Moreover, the reconstruction of the evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dispersal was highly impacted by overall low signals of sequence divergence throughout time but suggested that cISF distribution in space and time is dynamic and may be dependent on human activities, including commercial trading and traveling.

Molecular characterization of respiratory syncytial viruses circulating in a paediatric cohort in Amman, Jordan

Respiratory syncytial viruses (RSVs) are an important cause of mortality worldwide and a major cause of respiratory tract infections in children, driving development of vaccine candidates. However, there are large gaps in our knowledge of the local evolutionary and transmission dynamics of RSVs, particularly in understudied regions such as the Middle East. To address this gap, we sequenced the complete genomes of 58 RSVA and 27 RSVB samples collected in a paediatric cohort in Amman, Jordan, between 2010 and 2013. RSVA and RSVB co-circulated during each winter epidemic of RSV in Amman, and each epidemic comprised multiple independent viral introductions of RSVA and RSVB. However, RSVA and RSVB alternated in dominance across years, potential evidence of immunological interactions. Children infected with RSVA tended to be older than RSVB-infected children [30 months versus 22.4 months, respectively (P value = 0.02)], and tended to developed bronchopneumonia less frequently than those with RSVB, although the difference was not statistically significant (P value = 0.06). Differences in spatial patterns were investigated, and RSVA lineages were often identified in multiple regions in Amman, whereas RSVB introductions did not spread beyond a single region of the city, although these findings were based on small sample sizes. Multiple RSVA genotypes were identified in Amman, including GA2 viruses as well as three viruses from the ON1 sub-genotype that emerged in 2009 and are now the dominant genotype circulating worldwide. As vaccine development advances, further sequencing of RSV is needed to understand viral ecology and transmission, particularly in under-studied locations.

Epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Africa

COVID-19 disease dynamics have been widely studied in different settings around the globe, but little is known about these patterns in the African continent. To investigate the epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Africa, more than 2400 complete genomes from 33 African countries were retrieved from the GISAID database and analyzed. We investigated their diversity using various clade and lineage nomenclature systems, reconstructed their evolutionary divergence and history using maximum likelihood inference methods, and studied the case and death trends in the continent. We also examined potential repeat patterns and motifs across the sequences. In this study, we show that after almost one year of the COVID-19 pandemic, only 143 out of the 782 Pango lineages found worldwide circulated in Africa, with five different lineages dominating in distinct periods of the pandemic. Analysis of the number of reported deaths in Africa also revealed large heterogeneity across the continent. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that African viruses cluster closely with those from all continents but more notably with viruses from Europe. However, the extent of viral diversity observed among African genomes is closest to that of the Oceania outbreak, most likely due to genomic under-surveillance in Africa. We also identified two motifs that could function as integrin-binding sites and N-glycosylation domains. These results shed light on the evolutionary dynamics of the circulating viral strains in Africa, elucidate the functions of protein motifs present in the genome sequences, and emphasize the need to expand genomic surveillance efforts in the continent to better understand the molecular, evolutionary, epidemiological, and spatiotemporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.

Genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 during early introduction into the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area

The early COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by rapid global spread. In Maryland and Washington, DC, United States, more than 2500 cases were reported within 3 weeks of the first COVID-19 detection in March 2020. We aimed to use genomic sequencing to understand the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19 — in the region. We analyzed 620 samples collected from the Johns Hopkins Health System during March 11–31, 2020, comprising 28.6% of the total cases in Maryland and Washington, DC. From these samples, we generated 114 complete viral genomes. Analysis of these genomes alongside a subsampling of over 1000 previously published sequences showed that the diversity in this region rivaled global SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity at that time and that the sequences belong to all of the major globally circulating lineages, suggesting multiple introductions into the region. We also analyzed these regional SARS-CoV-2 genomes alongside detailed clinical metadata and found that clinically severe cases had viral genomes belonging to all major viral lineages. We conclude that efforts to control local spread of the virus were likely confounded by the number of introductions into the region early in the epidemic and the interconnectedness of the region as a whole.

The Evolutionary Dynamics of Influenza A Viruses Circulating in Mallards in Duck Hunting Preserves in Maryland, USA

Duck hunting preserves (DHP) have resident populations of farm-raised mallard ducks, which create potential foci for the evolution of novel influenza A viruses (IAVs). Through an eleven-year (2003–2013) IAV surveillance project in seven DHPs in Maryland, USA, we frequently identified IAVs in the resident, free-flying mallard ducks (5.8% of cloacal samples were IAV-positive). The IAV population had high genetic diversity, including 12 HA subtypes and 9 NA subtypes. By sequencing the complete genomes of 290 viruses, we determined that genetically diverse IAVs were introduced annually into DHP ducks, predominantly from wild birds in the Anatidae family that inhabit the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways. The relatively low viral gene flow observed out of DHPs suggests that raised mallards do not sustain long-term viral persistence nor do they serve as important sources of new viruses in wild birds. Overall, our findings indicate that DHPs offer reliable samples of the diversity of IAV subtypes, and could serve as regional sentinel sites that mimic the viral diversity found in local wild duck populations, which would provide a cost-efficient strategy for long-term IAV monitoring. Such monitoring could allow for early identification and characterization of viruses that threaten bird species of high economic and environmental interest.

Genomic Diversity of SARS-CoV-2 During Early Introduction into the United States National Capital Region

BACKGROUND

The early COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by rapid global spread. In the United States National Capital Region, over 2,000 cases were reported within three weeks of its first detection in March 2020. We aimed to use genomic sequencing to understand the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in the region. By correlating genetic information to disease phenotype, we also aimed to gain insight into any correlation between viral genotype and case severity or transmissibility.

METHODS

We performed whole genome sequencing of clinical SARS-CoV-2 samples collected in March 2020 by the Johns Hopkins Health System. We analyzed these regional SARS-CoV-2 genomes alongside detailed clinical metadata and the global phylogeny to understand early establishment of the virus within the region.

RESULTS

We analyzed 620 samples from the Johns Hopkins Health System collected between March 11-31, 2020, comprising 37.3% of the total cases in Maryland during this period. We selected 143 of these samples for sequencing, generating 114 complete viral genomes. These genomes belong to all five major Nextstrain-defined clades, suggesting multiple introductions into the region and underscoring the diversity of the regional epidemic. We also found that clinically severe cases had genomes belonging to all of these clades.

CONCLUSIONS

We established a pipeline for SARS-CoV-2 sequencing within the Johns Hopkins Health system, which enabled us to capture the significant viral diversity present in the region as early as March 2020. Efforts to control local spread of the virus were likely confounded by the number of introductions into the region early in the epidemic and interconnectedness of the region as a whole.

Human-Origin Influenza A(H3N2) Reassortant Viruses in Swine, Southeast Mexico

The genetic diversity of influenza A viruses circulating in swine in Mexico complicates control efforts in animals and presents a threat to humans, as shown by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus. To describe evolution of swine influenza A viruses in Mexico and evaluate strains for vaccine development, we sequenced the genomes of 59 viruses and performed antigenic cartography on strains from 5 regions. We found that genetic and antigenic diversity were particularly high in southeast Mexico because of repeated introductions of viruses from humans and swine in other regions in Mexico. We identified novel reassortant H3N2 viruses with genome segments derived from 2 different viruses that were independently introduced from humans into swine: pandemic H1N1 viruses and seasonal H3N2 viruses. The Mexico swine viruses are antigenically distinct from US swine lineages. Protection against these viruses is unlikely to be afforded by US virus vaccines and would require development of new vaccines specifically targeting these diverse strains.

Evolution of rotavirus C in humans and several domestic animal species

Rotavirus C (RVC) causes enteric disease in multiple species, including humans, swine, bovines, and canines. To date, the evolutionary relationships of RVC populations circulating in different host species are poorly understood, owing to the low availability of genetic sequence data. To address this gap, we sequenced 45 RVC complete genomes from swine samples collected in the United States and Mexico. A phylogenetic analysis of each genome segment indicates that RVC populations have been evolving independently in human, swine, canine, and bovine hosts for at least the last century, with inter-species transmission events occurring deep in the phylogenetic tree, and none in the last 100 years. Bovine and canine RVC populations clustered together nine of the 11 gene segments, indicating a shared common ancestor centuries ago. The evolutionary relationships of RVC in humans and swine were more complex, due to the extensive genetic diversity and multiple RVC clades identified in pigs, which were not structured geographically. Topological differences between trees inferred for different genome segments occurred frequently, including at nodes deep in the tree, indicating that RVC's evolutionary history includes multiple reassortment events that occurred a long time ago. Overall, we find that RVC is evolving within host-defined lineages, but the evolutionary history of RVC is more complex than previously recognized due to the high genetic diversity of RVC in swine, with a common ancestor dating back centuries. Pigs may act as a reservoir host for RVC, and a source of the lineages identified in other species, including humans, but additional sequencing is needed to understand the full diversity of this understudied pathogen across multiple host species.

On the importance of negative controls in viral landscape phylogeography

Phylogeographic reconstructions are becoming an established procedure to evaluate the factors that could impact virus spread. While a discrete phylogeographic approach can be used to test predictors of transition rates among discrete locations, alternative continuous phylogeographic reconstructions can also be exploited to investigate the impact of underlying environmental layers on the dispersal velocity of a virus. The two approaches are complementary tools for studying pathogens' spread, but in both cases, care must be taken to avoid misinterpretations. Here, we analyse rice yellow mottle virus (RYMV) sequence data from West and East Africa to illustrate how both approaches can be used to study the impact of environmental factors on the virus’ dispersal frequency and velocity. While it was previously reported that host connectivity was a major determinant of RYMV spread, we show that this was a false positive result due to the lack of appropriate negative controls. We also discuss and compare the phylodynamic tools currently available for investigating the impact of environmental factors on virus spread.

The emergence and evolution of influenza A (H1α) viruses in swine in Canada and the United States

Swine are a key reservoir host for influenza A viruses (IAVs), with the potential to cause global pandemics in humans. Gaps in surveillance in many of the world's largest swine populations impede our understanding of how novel viruses emerge and expand their spatial range in pigs. Although US swine are intensively sampled, little is known about IAV diversity in Canada's population of ~12 million pigs. By sequencing 168 viruses from multiple regions of Canada, our study reveals that IAV diversity has been underestimated in Canadian pigs for many years. Critically, a new H1 clade has emerged in Canada (H1α-3), with a two-amino acid deletion at H1 positions 146-147, that experienced rapid growth in Manitoba's swine herds during 2014-2015. H1α-3 viruses also exhibit a higher capacity to invade US swine herds, resulting in multiple recent introductions of the virus into the US Heartland following large-scale movements of pigs in this direction. From the Heartland, H1α-3 viruses have disseminated onward to both the east and west coasts of the United States, and may become established in Appalachia. These findings demonstrate how long-distance trading of live pigs facilitates the spread of IAVs, increasing viral genetic diversity and complicating pathogen control. The proliferation of novel H1α-3 viruses also highlights the need for expanded surveillance in a Canadian swine population that has long been overlooked, and may have implications for vaccine design.

Origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in swine in Mexico

Asia is considered an important source of influenza A virus (IAV) pandemics, owing to large, diverse viral reservoirs in poultry and swine. However, the zoonotic origins of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic virus (pdmH1N1) remain unclear, due to conflicting evidence from swine and humans. There is strong evidence that the first human outbreak of pdmH1N1 occurred in Mexico in early 2009. However, no related swine viruses have been detected in Mexico or any part of the Americas, and to date the most closely related ancestor viruses were identified in Asian swine. Here, we use 58 new whole-genome sequences from IAVs collected in Mexican swine to establish that the swine virus responsible for the 2009 pandemic evolved in central Mexico. This finding highlights how the 2009 pandemic arose from a region not considered a pandemic risk, owing to an expansion of IAV diversity in swine resulting from long-distance live swine trade.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16777.001

In 2009 a new influenza virus jumped from pigs to humans and spread very rapidly, causing an initial outbreak in Mexico and becoming a global pandemic in just a few months. Although the most straightforward explanation is that the virus originated in swine in Mexico, several studies suggested that this was unlikely because key genetic components of the virus had never been detected in the Americas. Determining the source of the disease is critical for predicting and preparing for future influenza pandemics.

Mena, Nelson et al. sought to better characterize the genetic diversity of influenza viruses in Mexican swine by obtaining the entire genetic sequences of 58 viruses collected from swine in Mexico, including some from previously unsampled regions in central Mexico. The sequences revealed extensive diversity among the influenza viruses circulating in Mexican swine. Several viruses included genetic segments that originated from viruses from Eurasia (the landmass containing Europe and Asia) and had not previously been detected in the Americas. The new sequences contained key genetic components of the 2009 pandemic virus. Furthermore, the sequences suggest that viruses with a similar genetic composition to the 2009 pandemic virus have been circulating in pigs in central-west Mexico for more than a decade. Thus, this region is the most likely source of the virus that started the 2009 pandemic.

Mena, Nelson et al. also found that the movement of viruses from Eurasia and the United States into Mexico closely follows the direction of the global trade of live swine. This highlights the critical role that animal trading plays in bringing together diverse viruses from different continents, which can then combine and generate new pandemic viruses.

A potential next step is to perform experiments that investigate how well the swine viruses can replicate and pass between different animal models. Comparing the results of such experiments with the findings presented by Mena, Nelson et al. could identify factors that make the viruses more likely to spread to humans and produce a pandemic.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16777.002