Application of phylodynamics to identify spread of antimicrobial-resistant Escherichia coli between humans and canines in an urban environment

The transmission of antimicrobial resistant bacteria in the urban environment is poorly understood. We utilized genomic sequencing and phylogenetics to characterize the transmission dynamics of antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli (AMR-Ec) cultured from putative canine (caninep) and human feces present on urban sidewalks in San Francisco, California. We isolated a total of fifty-six AMR-Ec isolates from human (n = 20) and caninep (n = 36) fecal samples from the Tenderloin and South of Market (SoMa) neighborhoods of San Francisco. We then analyzed phenotypic and genotypic antimicrobial resistance (AMR) of the isolates, as well as clonal relationships based on cgMLST and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the core genomes. Using Bayesian inference, we reconstructed the transmission dynamics between humans and caninesp from multiple local outbreak clusters using the marginal structured coalescent approximation (MASCOT). Our results provide evidence for multiple sharing events of AMR-Ec between humans and caninesp. In particular, we found one instance of likely transmission from caninesp to humans as well as an additional local outbreak cluster consisting of one caninep and one human sample. Based on this analysis, it appears that non-human feces act as an important reservoir of clinically relevant AMR-Ec within the urban environment for this study population. This work showcases the utility of genomic epidemiology to reconstruct potential pathways by which antimicrobial resistance spreads.

Intense P.1 (Gamma) diversification followed by rapid Delta substitution in Southern Brazil: a SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology study

The analyses of genetic traits, dispersion patterns and phylogenomics are essential for understanding the evolutionary forces driving SARS-CoV-2 viruses in these three years of COVID-19 pandemics. Brazil is one of the most affected countries in the world and not sufficient genomic studies have been performed. The emergence of P.1 lineage led to one of the most serious public health crises on record. Our study presents the genomic sequencing and characterization of 412 samples from Rio Grande do Sul state, in the Brazilian Southern region, during Gamma and Delta epidemic waves, in 2021. Additionally, molecular evolution tests were performed to identify positively selected sites in Brazil between 2020 and 2022, as well as offer some evolutionary perspective about the maintenance of multiple spike mutations in Omicron lineages. Genomic epidemiology analysis has indicated an intense P.1 (Gamma) diversification followed by rapid Delta substitution in Southern Brazil.

Phylodynamic characteristics of reassortant DS-1-like G3P[8]-strains of rotavirus type A isolated in Nizhny Novgorod (Russia)

Since 2013, there has been an increase in reports of the spread of a double intergroup reassortant strain of rotavirus type A (RVA) with the genotype G3P[8] and other genes belonging to the second genogroup I2-R2-C2-M2-A2-N2-T2-E2-H2. In our study, we provide a molecular genetic characterization of rotaviruses with genotype G3P[8]-I2 isolated in Nizhny Novgorod. In our study, we used RT-PCR, Sanger sequencing, RNA-PAGE methods. Phylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis were performed using the Bayesian approach. According to our study, there was a significant increase in the proportion of G3P[8] from 15% during the period of 2020-2021 to 53% during the period of 2021-2022 in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia. Phylogenetic analysis based on the VP4 gene revealed that DS-1-like RVAs isolated in Nizhny Novgorod belong to different clusters of the P[8]-3.1 lineage, with a level of variation ranging from 1.1% to 1.3%. Based on the VP6 gene, the equine-like RVAs identified by us carry genetic variants belonging to three distinct clusters of the lineage I2-V, with a variation level ranging from 2.0% to 4.5%. These data indicate the genotypic diversity of circulating DS-1-like G3 RVAs. Phylogenetic analysis of the VP7 gene allowed us to assign the isolates identified in our study to the G3-1 lineage. We estimated that the circulation of the most recent common ancestor of the spreading strains dates back to 2002. Additionally, we determined the typical level of mutations in the VP7 gene, which amounted to 2.14*10-3 substitutions/per site/per year.

Phylodynamic approaches to studying avian influenza virus

Avian influenza viruses can cause severe disease in domestic and wild birds and are a pandemic threat. Phylodynamics is the study of how epidemiological, evolutionary, and immunological processes can interact to shape viral phylogenies. This review summarizes how phylodynamic methods have and could contribute to the study of avian influenza viruses. Specifically, we assess how phylodynamics can be used to examine viral spread within and between wild or domestic bird populations at various geographical scales, identify factors associated with virus dispersal, and determine the order and timing of virus lineage movement between geographic regions or poultry production systems. We discuss factors that can complicate the interpretation of phylodynamic results and identify how future methodological developments could contribute to improved control of the virus.

Phylodynamics of dengue virus 2 in Nicaragua leading up to the 2019 epidemic reveals a role for lineage turnover

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease posing a significant threat to public health. Dengue virus (DENV) evolution is often characterized by lineage turnover, which, along with ecological and immunological factors, has been linked to changes in dengue phenotype affecting epidemic dynamics. Utilizing epidemiologic and virologic data from long-term population-based studies (the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study and Nicaraguan Dengue Hospital-based Study), we describe a lineage turnover of DENV serotype 2 (DENV-2) prior to a large dengue epidemic in 2019. Prior to this epidemic, Nicaragua had experienced relatively low levels of DENV transmission from 2014 to 2019, a period dominated by chikungunya in 2014/15 and Zika in 2016.

RESULTS

Our phylogenetic analyses confirmed that all Nicaraguan DENV-2 isolates from 2018 to 2019 formed their own clade within the Nicaraguan lineage of the Asian/American genotype. The emergence of the new DENV-2 lineage reflects a replacement of the formerly dominant clade presiding from 2005 to 2009, a lineage turnover marked by several shared derived amino acid substitutions throughout the genome. To elucidate evolutionary drivers of lineage turnover, we performed selection pressure analysis and reconstructed the demographic history of DENV-2. We found evidence of adaptive evolution by natural selection at the codon level as well as in branch formation.

CONCLUSIONS

The timing of its emergence, along with a statistical signal of adaptive evolution and distinctive amino acid substitutions, the latest in the NS5 gene, suggest that this lineage may have increased fitness relative to the prior dominant DENV-2 strains. This may have contributed to the intensity of the 2019 DENV-2 epidemic, in addition to previously identified immunological factors associated with pre-existing Zika virus immunity.

Hepatitis C Virus in people with experience of injection drug use following their displacement to Southern Ukraine before 2020

BACKGROUND

Due to practical challenges associated with genetic sequencing in low-resource environments, the burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in forcibly displaced people is understudied. We examined the use of field applicable HCV sequencing methods and phylogenetic analysis to determine HCV transmission dynamics in internally displaced people who inject drugs (IDPWID) in Ukraine.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we used modified respondent-driven sampling to recruit IDPWID who were displaced to Odesa, Ukraine, before 2020. We generated partial and near full length genome (NFLG) HCV sequences using Oxford Nanopore Technology (ONT) MinION in a simulated field environment. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods were used to establish phylodynamic relationships.

RESULTS

Between June and September 2020, we collected epidemiological data and whole blood samples from 164 IDPWID (PNAS Nexus.2023;2(3):pgad008). Rapid testing (Wondfo® One Step HCV; Wondfo® One Step HIV1/2) identified an anti-HCV seroprevalence of 67.7%, and 31.1% of participants tested positive for both anti-HCV and HIV. We generated 57 partial or NFLG HCV sequences and identified eight transmission clusters, of which at least two originated within a year and a half post-displacement.

CONCLUSIONS

Locally generated genomic data and phylogenetic analysis in rapidly changing low-resource environments, such as those faced by forcibly displaced people, can help inform effective public health strategies. For example, evidence of HCV transmission clusters originating soon after displacement highlights the importance of implementing urgent preventive interventions in ongoing situations of forced displacement.

Phylodynamics Uncovers the Transmission of Antibiotic-Resistant Escherichia coli between Canines and Humans in an Urban Environment

The role of canines in transmitting antibiotic resistant bacteria to humans in the urban environment is poorly understood. To elucidate this role, we utilized genomic sequencing and phylogenetics to characterize the burden and transmission dynamics of antibiotic resistant Escherichia coli (ABR-Ec) cultured from canine and human feces present on urban sidewalks in San Francisco, California. We collected a total of fifty-nine ABR-Ec from human (n=12) and canine (n=47) fecal samples from the Tenderloin and South of Market (SoMa) neighborhoods of San Francisco. We then analyzed phenotypic and genotypic antibiotic resistance (ABR) of the isolates, as well as clonal relationships based on cgMLST and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the core genomes. Using Bayesian inference, we reconstructed the transmission dynamics between humans and canines from multiple local outbreak clusters using the marginal structured coalescent approximation (MASCOT). Overall, we found human and canine samples to carry similar amounts and profiles of ABR genes. Our results provide evidence for multiple transmission events of ABR-Ec between humans and canines. In particular, we found one instance of likely transmission from canines to humans as well as an additional local outbreak cluster consisting of one canine and one human sample. Based on this analysis, it appears that canine feces act as an important reservoir of clinically relevant ABR-Ec within the urban environment. Our findings support that public health measures should continue to emphasize proper canine feces disposal practices, access to public toilets and sidewalk and street cleaning. Importance: Antibiotic resistance in E. coli is a growing public health concern with global attributable deaths projected to reach millions annually. Current research has focused heavily on clinical routes of antibiotic resistance transmission to design interventions while the role of alternative reservoirs such as domesticated animals remain less well understood. Our results suggest canines are part of the transmission network that disseminates high-risk multidrug resistance in E. coli within the urban San Francisco community. As such, this study highlights the need to consider canines, and potentially domesticated animals more broadly, when designing interventions to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in the community. Additionally, it showcases the utility of genomic epidemiology to reconstruct the pathways by which antimicrobial resistance spreads.

The evolutionary dynamics history of canine distemper virus through analysis of the hemagglutinin gene during 1930-2020

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a lethal viral disease of carnivores which is considered to be a serious threat to domestic and wild species. Despite the widespread use of vaccines, CDV still occurs in vaccinated animals and current vaccines does not guarantee complete protection. In this study, a total of 286 hemagglutinin (H) gene sequences of the virus isolated in 25 countries during 90 years (1930-2020) were analyzed by Bayesian maximum likelihood analysis to estimate the population dynamics. We identified the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of the virus in 1868 in the USA which arrived in continental Europe in 1948, and from there, the virus spread rapidly to other continents. The Canidae family was identified as the original host as well as a source of the subsequent spread. We identified 11 lineages of geographic co-circulating strains globally. The effective population size experienced a two-phase-exponential growth between 2000-2005 and 2010-2012. Our findings provide a novel insight into the epidemic history of canine distemper virus which may facilitate more effective disease management. This study uses a large set of sequencing data on the H gene of CDV to identify distinct lineages of the virus, track its geographic spread over time, analyze its likelihood of transmission within and between animal families, and provide suggestions for improved strategies to combat the virus.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10344-023-01685-z.

Identifiability and inference of phylogenetic birth-death models

Recent theoretical work on phylogenetic birth-death models offers differing viewpoints on whether they can be estimated using lineage-through-time data. Louca and Pennell (2020) showed that the class of models with continuously differentiable rate functions is nonidentifiable: any such model is consistent with an infinite collection of alternative models, which are statistically indistinguishable regardless of how much data are collected. Legried and Terhorst (2022) qualified this grave result by showing that identifiability is restored if only piecewise constant rate functions are considered. Here, we contribute new theoretical results to this discussion, in both the positive and negative directions. Our main result is to prove that models based on piecewise polynomial rate functions of any order and with any (finite) number of pieces are statistically identifiable. In particular, this implies that spline-based models with an arbitrary number of knots are identifiable. The proof is simple and self-contained, relying mainly on basic algebra. We complement this positive result with a negative one, which shows that even when identifiability holds, rate function estimation is still a difficult problem. To illustrate this, we prove some rates-of-convergence results for hypothesis testing using birth-death models. These results are information-theoretic lower bounds which apply to all potential estimators.

Bayesian phylodynamics reveals the transmission dynamics of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus at the human-live bird market interface in China

In 2013 to 2017, avian influenza A(H7N9) virus has caused five severe epidemic waves of human infections in China. The role of live bird markets (LBMs) in the transmission dynamics of H7N9 remains unclear. Using a Bayesian phylodynamic approach, we shed light on past H7N9 transmission events at the human-LBM interface that were not directly observed using case surveillance data-based approaches. Our results reveal concurrent circulation of H7N9 lineages in Yangtze and Pearl River Delta regions, with evidence of local transmission during each wave. Our results indicate that H7N9 circulated in humans and LBMs for weeks to months before being first detected. Our findings support the seasonality of H7N9 transmission and suggest a high number of underreported infections, particularly in LBMs. We provide evidence for differences in virus transmissibility between low and highly pathogenic H7N9. We demonstrate a regional spatial structure for the spread of H7N9 among LBMs, highlighting the importance of further investigating the role of local live poultry trade in virus transmission. Our results provide estimates of avian influenza virus (AIV) transmission at the LBM level, providing a unique opportunity to better prepare surveillance plans at LBMs for response to future AIV epidemics.

The importance of vaccinated individuals to population-level evolution of pathogens

Virus evolution shapes the epidemiological patterns of infectious disease, particularly via evasion of population immunity. At the individual level, host immunity itself may drive viral evolution towards antigenic escape. Using compartmental SIR-style models with imperfect vaccination, we allow the probability of immune escape to differ in vaccinated and unvaccinated hosts. As the relative contribution to selection in these different hosts varies, the overall effect of vaccination on the antigenic escape pressure at the population level changes. We find that this relative contribution to escape is important for understanding the effects of vaccination on the escape pressure and we draw out some fairly general patterns. If vaccinated hosts do not contribute much more than unvaccinated hosts to the escape pressure, then increasing vaccination always reduces the overall escape pressure. In contrast, if vaccinated hosts contribute significantly more than unvaccinated hosts to the population level escape pressure, then the escape pressure is maximised for intermediate vaccination levels. Past studies find only that the escape pressure is maximal for intermediate levels with fixed extreme assumptions about this relative contribution. Here we show that this result does not hold across the range of plausible assumptions for the relative contribution to escape from vaccinated and unvaccinated hosts. We also find that these results depend on the vaccine efficacy against transmission, particularly through the partial protection against infection. This work highlights the potential value of understanding better how the contribution to antigenic escape pressure depends on individual host immunity.

Comparing the transmission potential from sequence and surveillance data of 2009 North American influenza pandemic waves

Technological advancements in phylodynamic modeling coupled with the accessibility of real-time pathogen genetic data are increasingly important for understanding the infectious disease transmission dynamics. In this study, we compare the transmission potentials of North American influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 derived from sequence data to that derived from surveillance data. The impact of the choice of tree-priors, informative epidemiological priors, and evolutionary parameters on the transmission potential estimation is evaluated. North American Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequences are analyzed using the coalescent and birth-death tree prior models to estimate the basic reproduction number (R ₀ ). Epidemiological priors gathered from published literature are used to simulate the birth-death skyline models. Path-sampling marginal likelihood estimation is conducted to assess model fit. A bibliographic search to gather surveillance-based R ₀ values were consistently lower (mean ≤ 1.2) when estimated by coalescent models than by the birth-death models with informative priors on the duration of infectiousness (mean ≥ 1.3 to ≤2.88 days). The user-defined informative priors for use in the birth-death model shift the directionality of epidemiological and evolutionary parameters compared to non-informative estimates. While there was no certain impact of clock rate and tree height on the R ₀ estimation, an opposite relationship was observed between coalescent and birth-death tree priors. There was no significant difference (p = 0.46) between the birth-death model and surveillance R ₀ estimates. This study concludes that tree-prior methodological differences may have a substantial impact on the transmission potential estimation as well as the evolutionary parameters. The study also reports a consensus between the sequence-based R ₀ estimation and surveillance-based R ₀ estimates. Altogether, these outcomes shed light on the potential role of phylodynamic modeling to augment existing surveillance and epidemiological activities to better assess and respond to emerging infectious diseases.

Temporal and geographic dynamics of bovine viral diarrhea virus in American countries

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is a worldwide distributed pathogen of livestock classified into three species, BVDV-1 (Pestivirus A), BVDV-2 (Pestivirus B), and HoBi-like pestivirus (HoBiPeV; Pestivirus H). Despite being considered endemic in several regions of the Americas, the spatiotemporal distribution of BVDV is scarcely known. This study aimed to reconstruct the population dynamics of BVDV in American countries. The analyses performed with the partial 5´UTR gene showed that BVDV-1 and -2 would have started their diversification in the 1670s and 1790s in the United States, whereas HoBiPeV probably emerged in the 1980s in Brazil. No evident geographic clustering was observed in the Bayesian trees, which may indicate that multiple introductions events would have occurred following the first introduction. This study provides new insights into BVDV dynamics, although further analyses including sequences from other American countries and continents will help to expand the knowledge of BVDV evolution and transmission.

Genomic epidemiology of Salmonella Typhi in Central Division, Fiji, 2012 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Typhoid fever is endemic in some Pacific Island Countries including Fiji and Samoa yet genomic surveillance is not routine in such settings. Previous studies suggested imports of the global H58 clade of Salmonella enterica var Typhi (Salmonella Typhi) contribute to disease in these countries which, given the MDR potential of H58, does not auger well for treatment. The objective of the study was to define the genomic epidemiology of Salmonella Typhi in Fiji.

METHODS

Genomic sequencing approaches were implemented to study the distribution of 255 Salmonella Typhi isolates from the Central Division of Fiji. We augmented epidemiological surveillance and Bayesian phylogenomic approaches with a multi-year typhoid case-control study to define geospatial patterns among typhoid cases.

FINDINGS

Genomic analyses showed Salmonella Typhi from Fiji resolved into 2 non-H58 genotypes with isolates from the two dominant ethnic groups, the Indigenous (iTaukei) and non-iTaukei genetically indistinguishable. Low rates of international importation of clones was observed and overall, there were very low levels an antibiotic resistance within the endemic Fijian typhoid genotypes. Genomic epidemiological investigations were able to identify previously unlinked case clusters. Bayesian phylodynamic analyses suggested that genomic variation within the larger endemic Salmonella Typhi genotype expanded at discreet times, then contracted.

INTERPRETATION

Cyclones and flooding drove 'waves' of typhoid outbreaks in Fiji which, through population aggregation, poor sanitation and water safety, and then mobility of the population, spread clones more widely. Minimal international importations of new typhoid clones suggest that targeted local intervention strategies may be useful in controlling endemic typhoid infection. These findings add to our understanding of typhoid transmission networks in an endemic island country with broad implications, particularly across Pacific Island Countries.

FUNDING

This work was supported by the Coalition Against Typhoid through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [grant number OPP1017518], the Victorian Government, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, the Australian Research Council, and the Fiji Ministry of Health and Medical Services.

The bounded coalescent model: Conditioning a genealogy on a minimum root date

The coalescent model represents how individuals sampled from a population may have originated from a last common ancestor. The bounded coalescent model is obtained by conditioning the coalescent model such that the last common ancestor must have existed after a certain date. This conditioned model arises in a variety of applications, such as speciation, horizontal gene transfer or transmission analysis, and yet the bounded coalescent model has not been previously analysed in detail. Here we describe a new algorithm to simulate from this model directly, without resorting to rejection sampling. We show that this direct simulation algorithm is more computationally efficient than the rejection sampling approach. We also show how to calculate the probability of the last common ancestor occurring after a given date, which is required to compute the probability density of realisations under the bounded coalescent model. Our results are applicable in both the isochronous (when all samples have the same date) and heterochronous (where samples can have different dates) settings. We explore the effect of setting a bound on the date of the last common ancestor, and show that it affects a number of properties of the resulting phylogenies. All our methods are implemented in a new R package called BoundedCoalescent which is freely available online.

Different evolutionary dynamics of hepatitis B virus genotypes A and D, and hepatitis D virus genotypes 1 and 2 in an endemic area of Yakutia, Russia

Background

The geographic distribution of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and the hepatitis D virus (HDV) genotypes is uneven. We reconstructed the temporal evolution of HBV and HDV in Yakutia, one of the regions of Russia most affected by HBV and HDV, in an attempt to understand the possible mechanisms that led to unusual for Russia pattern of viral genotypes and to identify current distribution trends.

Methods

HBV and HDV genotypes were determined in sera collected in 2018–2019 in Yakutia from randomly selected 140 patients with HBV monoinfection and 59 patients with HBV/HDV. Total 86 HBV and 88 HDV genomic sequences isolated in Yakutia between 1997 and 2019 were subjected to phylodynamic and philogeographic Bayesian analysis using BEAST v1.10.4 software package. Bayesian SkyGrid reconstruction and Birth–Death Skyline analysis were applied to estimate HBV and HDV population dynamics.

Results

Currently, HBV-A and HDV-D genotypes are prevalent in Yakutia, in both monoinfected and HDV-coinfected patients. Bayesian analysis has shown that the high prevalence of HBV-A in Yakutia, which is not typical for Russia, initially emerged after the genotype was introduced from Eastern Europe in the fifteenth century (around 600 (95% HPD: 50–715) years ago). The acute hepatitis B epidemics in the 1990s in Yakutia were largely associated with this particular genotype, as indicated by temporal changes in HBV-A population dynamics. HBV-D had a longer history in Yakutia and demonstrated stable population dynamics, indicating ongoing viral circulation despite vaccination. No correlation between HBV and HDV genotypes was observed for coinfected patients in Yakutia (r = − 0.016069332). HDV-2b circulates in Russia in Yakutia only and resulted from a single wave of introduction from Central Asia 135 years ago (95% HPD: 60–350 years), while HDV-1 strains resulted from multiple introductions from Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and different parts of Russia starting 180 years ago (95% HPD: 150–210 years) and continuing to the present day. The population dynamics of HDV-1 and HDV-2 show no signs of decline despite 20 years of HBV vaccination. The Birth–Death Skyline analysis showed an increase in the viral population in recent years for both HDV genotypes, indicating ongoing HDV epidemics.

Conclusions

Taken together, these data call for strict control of HBV vaccination quality and coverage, and implementation of HBV and HDV screening programs in Yakutia.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07444-w.

Markov genealogy processes

We construct a family of genealogy-valued Markov processes that are induced by a continuous-time Markov population process. We derive exact expressions for the likelihood of a given genealogy conditional on the history of the underlying population process. These lead to a nonlinear filtering equation which can be used to design efficient Monte Carlo inference algorithms. We demonstrate these calculations with several examples. Existing full-information approaches for phylodynamic inference are special cases of the theory.

Multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.214 lineages from mainland Japan preceded the third wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hokkaido

BACKGROUND

The third wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in the island of Hokkaido, the second largest island in Japan, began abruptly in October 2020.

METHODS

We conducted a phylodynamic analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences obtained from tertiary medical centers in the Greater Tokyo Area and Sapporo, the largest city in the island of Hokkaido, and genome sequences published by GISAID, an international SARS-CoV-2 genome database. We also analyzed the statistics on the person-nights of travelers in the island of Hokkaido from the Greater Tokyo Area in 2019 versus 2020.

RESULTS

At least eight sub-lineages belonging to the B.1.1.214 lineage were introduced to the island of Hokkaido from the island of Honshu, the mainland of Japan from late July to November 2020, during the governmental travel promotion program. Five of the eight sub-lineages originated from the Greater Tokyo Area. Comparison of the monthly ratios of the person-nights of travelers in the island of Hokkaido from the Greater Tokyo Area in 2019 and 2020 revealed that the highest value occurred in October 2020.

CONCLUSION

We contend that the Japanese governmental travel promotion program contributed to the introduction of the B.1.1.214 sub-lineages from the main island of Honshu to the island of Hokkaido, and drove the third wave in Hokkaido, even if we are unable to establish the causality.

Transmission dynamics of an antimicrobial resistant Campylobacter jejuni lineage in New Zealand's commercial poultry network

Understanding the relative contribution of different between-farm transmission pathways is essential in guiding recommendations for mitigating disease spread. This study investigated the association between contact pathways linking poultry farms in New Zealand and the genetic relatedness of antimicrobial resistant Campylobacter jejuni Sequence Type 6964 (ST-6964), with the aim of identifying the most likely contact pathways that contributed to its rapid spread across the industry. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on 167C. jejuni ST-6964 isolates sampled from across 30 New Zealand commercial poultry enterprises. The genetic relatedness between isolates was determined using whole genome multilocus sequence typing (wgMLST). Permutational multivariate analysis of variance and distance-based linear models were used to explore the strength of the relationship between pairwise genetic associations among the C. jejuni isolates and each of several pairwise distance matrices, indicating either the geographical distance between farms or the network distance of transportation vehicles. Overall, a significant association was found between the pairwise genetic relatedness of the C. jejuni isolates and the parent company, the road distance and the network distance of transporting feed vehicles. This result suggests that the transportation of feed within the commercial poultry industry as well as other local contacts between flocks, such as the movements of personnel, may have played a significant role in the spread of C. jejuni. However, further information on the historical contact patterns between farms is needed to fully characterise the risk of these pathways and to understand how they could be targeted to reduce the spread of C. jejuni.

Investigating the first stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine using epidemiological and genomic data

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in China in December 2019 and has rapidly spread around the globe. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic in March 2020 just three months after the introduction of the virus. Individual nations have implemented and enforced a variety of social distancing interventions to slow the virus spread, that had different degrees of success. Understanding the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 transmission in different settings is highly important. While most such studies have focused on China, neighboring Asian counties, Western Europe, and North America, there is a scarcity of studies for Eastern Europe. The aim of this epidemiological study is to fill this gap by analyzing the characteristics of the first months of the epidemic in Ukraine using agent-based modelling and phylodynamics. Specifically, first we studied the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence and mortality and explored the impact of epidemic NPIs. Our stochastic model suggests, that even a small delay of weeks could have increased the number of cases by up to 50%, with the potential to overwhelm hospital systems. Second, the genomic data analysis suggests that there have been multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Ukraine during the early stages of the epidemic. Our findings support the conclusion that the implemented travel restrictions may have had limited impact on the epidemic spread. Third, the basic reproduction number for the epidemic that has been estimated independently from case counts data and from genomic data suggest sustained intra-country transmissions.

Genetic and evolutionary analysis of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the region surrounding Islamabad, Pakistan

Genomic epidemiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has provided global epidemiological insight into the COVID-19 pandemic since it began. Sequencing of the virus has been performed at scale, with many countries depositing data into open access repositories to enable in-depth global phylogenetic analysis. To contribute to these efforts, we established an Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) sequencing capability at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), Pakistan. This study highlights multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages co-circulating during the peak of a second COVID-19 wave in Pakistan (Nov 2020-Feb 2021), with virus origins traced to the United States of America and Saudi Arabia. Ten SARS-CoV-2 positive samples were used for ONT library preparation. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis determined that the patients were infected with lineage B.1.1.250, originally identified in the United Kingdom and Bangladesh during March and April of 2020, and in circulation until the time of this study in Europe, USA and Australia. Lineage B.1.261 was originally identified in Saudi Arabia with widespread local dissemination in Pakistan. One sample clustered with the parental B.1 lineage and the other with lineage B.6 originally from Singapore. In the future, monitoring the evolutionary dynamics of circulating lineages in Pakistan will enable improved tracing of the viral spread, changing trends of their expansion trajectories, persistence, changes in their demographic dynamics, and provide guidance for better implementation of control measures.

Genetic lineage characterization and spatiotemporal dynamics of classical insect-specific flaviviruses: outcomes and limitations

The genus Flavivirus incorporates bona fide arboviruses, as well as others viruses with restricted replication in insect cells. Among the latter, a large monophyletic cluster of viruses, known as cISF (classical insect-specific flaviviruses), has been sampled in many species of mosquitoes collected over a large geographic range. In this study, we investigated nucleotide and protein sequences with a suite of molecular characterization approaches including genetic distance, Shannon entropy, selective pressure analysis, polymorphism identification, principal coordinate analysis, likelihood mapping, phylodynamic reconstruction, and spatiotemporal dispersal, to further characterize this diverse group of insect-viruses. The different lineages and sub-lineages of viral sequences presented low sequence diversity and entropy (though some displayed lineage-specific polymorphisms), did not show evidence of frequent recombination and evolved under strong purifying selection. Moreover, the reconstruction of the evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dispersal was highly impacted by overall low signals of sequence divergence throughout time but suggested that cISF distribution in space and time is dynamic and may be dependent on human activities, including commercial trading and traveling.

Temporal phylogeny and molecular characterization of echovirus 30 associated with aseptic meningitis outbreaks in China

BACKGROUND

An outbreak of aseptic meningitis occurred from June to August 2016, in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China.

METHODS

To determine its epidemiological characteristics, etiologic agent, and possible origin, specimens were collected for virus isolation and identification, followed by molecular epidemiological analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 363 patients were clinically diagnosed from June 1st to August 31st 2016, and most cases (63.1%, n = 229) were identified between June 22nd and July 17th, with children aged 6 to 12 years constituting the highest percentage (68.9%, n = 250). All viral isolates from this study belonged to genotype C of echovirus 30 (E30), which dominated transmission in China. To date, two E30 transmission lineages have been identified in China, of which Lineage 2 was predominant. We observed fluctuant progress of E30 genetic diversity, with Lineage 2 contributing to increased genetic diversity after 2002, whereas Lineage 1 was significant for the genetic diversity of E30 before 2002.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified the epidemiological and etiological causes of an aseptic meningitis outbreak in Inner Mongolia in 2016, and found that Lineage 2 played an important role in recent outbreaks. Moreover, we found that Gansu province could play an important role in E30 spread and might be a possible origin site. Furthermore, Fujian, Shandong, Taiwan, and Zhejiang provinces also demonstrated significant involvement in E30 evolution and persistence over time in China.

Quantifying transmission fitness costs of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis

As multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) continues to spread, investigating the transmission potential of different drug-resistant strains becomes an ever more pressing topic in public health. While phylogenetic and transmission tree inferences provide valuable insight into possible transmission chains, phylodynamic inference combines evolutionary and epidemiological analyses to estimate the parameters of the underlying epidemiological processes, allowing us to describe the overall dynamics of disease spread in the population. In this study, we introduce an approach to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) phylodynamic analysis employing an existing computationally efficient model to quantify the transmission fitness costs of drug resistance with respect to drug-sensitive strains. To determine the accuracy and precision of our approach, we first perform a simulation study, mimicking the simultaneous spread of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) strains. We analyse the simulated transmission trees using the phylodynamic multi-type birth-death model (MTBD, (Kühnert et al., 2016)) within the BEAST2 framework and show that this model can estimate the parameters of the epidemic well, despite the simplifying assumptions that MTBD makes compared to the complex TB transmission dynamics used for simulation. We then apply the MTBD model to an M. tuberculosis lineage 4 dataset that primarily consists of MDR sequences. Some of the MDR strains additionally exhibit resistance to pyrazinamide - an important first-line anti-tuberculosis drug. Our results support the previously proposed hypothesis that pyrazinamide resistance confers a transmission fitness cost to the bacterium, which we quantify for the given dataset. Importantly, our sensitivity analyses show that the estimates are robust to different prior distributions on the resistance acquisition rate, but are affected by the size of the dataset - i.e. we estimate a higher fitness cost when using fewer sequences for analysis. Overall, we propose that MTBD can be used to quantify the transmission fitness cost for a wide range of pathogens where the strains can be appropriately divided into two or more categories with distinct properties.

Pitfalls of barcodes in the study of worldwide SARS-CoV-2 variation and phylodynamics

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome variation using a minimal number of selected informative sites conforming a genetic barcode presents several drawbacks. We show that purely mathematical procedures for site selection should be supervised by known phylogeny (i) to ensure that solid tree branches are represented instead of mutational hotspots with poor phylogeographic proprieties, and (ii) to avoid phylogenetic redundancy. We propose a procedure that prevents information redundancy in site selection by considering the cumulative informativeness of previously selected sites (as a proxy for phylogenetic-based criteria). This procedure demonstrates that, for short barcodes (e.g., 11 sites), there are thousands of informative site combinations that improve previous proposals. We also show that barcodes based on worldwide databases inevitably prioritize variants located at the basal nodes of the phylogeny, such that most representative genomes in these ancestral nodes are no longer in circulation. Consequently, coronavirus phylodynamics cannot be properly captured by universal genomic barcodes because most SARS-CoV-2 variation is generated in geographically restricted areas by the continuous introduction of domestic variants.

Pitfalls of barcodes in the study of worldwide SARS-CoV-2 variation and phylodynamics

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome variation using a minimal number of selected informative sites conforming a genetic barcode presents several drawbacks. We show that purely mathematical procedures for site selection should be supervised by known phylogeny (i) to ensure that solid tree branches are represented instead of mutational hotspots with poor phylogeographic proprieties, and (ii) to avoid phylogenetic redundancy. We propose a procedure that prevents information redundancy in site selection by considering the cumulative informativeness of previously selected sites (as a proxy for phylogenetic-based criteria). This procedure demonstrates that, for short barcodes (e.g., 11 sites), there are thousands of informative site combinations that improve previous proposals. We also show that barcodes based on worldwide databases inevitably prioritize variants located at the basal nodes of the phylogeny, such that most representative genomes in these ancestral nodes are no longer in circulation. Consequently, coronavirus phylodynamics cannot be properly captured by universal genomic barcodes because most SARS-CoV-2 variation is generated in geographically restricted areas by the continuous introduction of domestic variants.

Increasing prevalence and local transmission of non-B HIV-1 subtypes in the French Antilles and French Guiana between 1995 and 2018

The Caribbean and South American French Overseas Territories (CSAFOT) are the regions most heavily affected by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic in France. Although dominated by HIV-1 subtype B, the detection of non-B subtypes and the great proportion of HIV-positive persons born abroad demonstrated the potential for local spread of non-B subtype strains in CSAFOT. To reconstruct the epidemiologic dynamics of major non-B subtype clusters spreading in CSAFOT, we conducted phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses of 2,523 HIV-1 pol sequences collected from patients living in Martinique, Guadeloupe, and French Guiana from 1995 to 2018. A large variety of HIV-1 non-B subtype strains (eight subtypes, twelve CRFs, and multiple URFs) have been introduced in CSAFOT and their prevalence significantly increases over time in Martinique and Guadeloupe. We identified twelve major transmission networks of non-B subtypes (CRF02_AG and subtypes A3, C, D, and F1) that probably arose in Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, and mainland France between the late 1970s and the middle 2000s. Phylogeographic analyses support frequent non-B subtype viral transmissions within CSAFOT as well as transatlantic transmission between CSAFOT and mainland France. Domestic transmission networks of non-B subtype variants in CSAFOT comprise both men having sex with men and heterosexual individuals from different age groups. Different HIV-1 non-B subtype variants were sequentially introduced in CSAFOT between the late 1970s and the middle 2000s and are currently spreading through domestic, regional, and/or transatlantic networks of individuals from different age and risk groups.

Genetic diversity of Nipah virus in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Nipah virus (NiV) infection, often fatal in humans, is primarily transmitted in Bangladesh through the consumption of date palm sap contaminated by Pteropus bats. Person-to-person transmission is also common and increases the concern of large outbreaks. This study aimed to characterize the molecular epidemiology, phylogenetic relationship, and the evolution of the nucleocapsid gene (N gene) of NiV.

METHODS

We conducted molecular detection, genetic characterization, and Bayesian time-scale evolution analyses of NiV using pooled Pteropid bat roost urine samples from an outbreak area in 2012 and archived RNA samples from NiV case patients identified during 2012-2018 in Bangladesh.

RESULTS

NiV-RNA was detected in 19% (38/456) of bat roost urine samples and among them; nine N gene sequences were recovered. We also retrieved sequences from 53% (21 out of 39) of archived RNA samples from patients. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that all Bangladeshi strains belonged to NiV-BD genotype and had an evolutionary rate of 4.64 × 10^-4 substitutions/site/year. The analyses suggested that the strains of NiV-BD genotype diverged during 1995 and formed two sublineages.

CONCLUSION

This analysis provides further evidence that the NiV strains of the Malaysian and Bangladesh genotypes diverged recently and continue to evolve. More extensive surveillance of NiV in bats and human will be helpful to explore strain diversity and virulence potential to infect humans through direct or person-to-person virus transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: A genetic, epidemiological, and evolutionary perspective

In less than five months, COVID-19 has spread from a small focus in Wuhan, China, to more than 5 million people in almost every country in the world, dominating the concern of most governments and public health systems. The social and political distresses caused by this epidemic will certainly impact our world for a long time to come. Here, we synthesize lessons from a range of scientific perspectives rooted in epidemiology, virology, genetics, ecology and evolutionary biology so as to provide perspective on how this pandemic started, how it is developing, and how best we can stop it.

Adaptive Metropolis-coupled MCMC for BEAST 2

With ever more complex models used to study evolutionary patterns, approaches that facilitate efficient inference under such models are needed. Metropolis-coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) has long been used to speed up phylogenetic analyses and to make use of multi-core CPUs. Metropolis-coupled MCMC essentially runs multiple MCMC chains in parallel. All chains are heated except for one cold chain that explores the posterior probability space like a regular MCMC chain. This heating allows chains to make bigger jumps in phylogenetic state space. The heated chains can then be used to propose new states for other chains, including the cold chain. One of the practical challenges using this approach, is to find optimal temperatures of the heated chains to efficiently explore state spaces. We here provide an adaptive Metropolis-coupled MCMC scheme to Bayesian phylogenetics, where the temperature difference between heated chains is automatically tuned to achieve a target acceptance probability of states being exchanged between individual chains. We first show the validity of this approach by comparing inferences of adaptive Metropolis-coupled MCMC to MCMC on several datasets. We then explore where Metropolis-coupled MCMC provides benefits over MCMC. We implemented this adaptive Metropolis-coupled MCMC approach as an open source package licenced under GPL 3.0 to the Bayesian phylogenetics software BEAST 2, available from https://github.com/nicfel/CoupledMCMC.

Phylodynamics of G4P[8] and G2P[4] strains of rotavirus A isolated in Russia in 2017 based on full-genome analyses

Rotavirus A is a dynamically evolving pathogen causing acute gastroenteritis in children during the first years of life. In the present study, we conducted a phylodynamic analysis based on the complete sequences of 11 segments of rotaviruses with the G4P[8] and G2P[4] genotypes isolated in Russia in 2017. Since rotavirus has a segmented genome, our analysis was performed using the Bayesian approach based on separate samples of nucleotide sequences for each gene of the strains studied. For the strain with the genotype G4P[8], the most likely geographical locations of the nearest common ancestor were Russia (VP7, VP4, VP6), China (VP1), Thailand (VP3), Belgium (NSP1), Hungary (VP2, NSP2, NSP3), Italy (NSP4) and Japan (NSP5). For the strain with the G2P[4] genotype, India (VP7, VP4, VP6, NSP1, NSP4), Malawi (VP2, NSP2, NSP3), Australia (VP1), Italy (NSP5) and Bangladesh (VP3). The closest common ancestor of the strain with the genotype G4P[8] circulated in 2001-2012, depending on the gene being analyzed. For the strain with the G2P[4] genotype, the closest common ancestor dates from 2006 to 2013.

Phylodynamics of sunflower chlorotic mottle virus, an emerging pathosystem

Distribution and epidemiological patterns of sunflower chlorotic mottle virus (SCMoV) in sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) growing areas in Argentina were studied from 2006 to 2017. The virus was detected exclusively in the Pampas region (Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, Córdoba, La Pampa and Buenos Aires provinces). Phylodynamic analyses performed using the coat protein gene of SCMoV isolates from sunflower and weeds dated the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) back to 1887 (HPD95% = 1572-1971), which coincides with the dates of sunflower introduction in Argentina. The MRCA was located in the south of Buenos Aires province and was associated with sunflower host (posterior probability for the ancestral host, ppah = 0.98). The Bayesian phylodynamic analyses revealed the dispersal patterns of SCMoV, suggesting a link between natural host diversity, crop displacement by human activities and virus spread.

Phylodynamic analysis of HIV-1 subtypes B, C and CRF 02_AG in Senegal

Surveillance of HIV epidemics in key populations and in developing countries is often challenging due to sparse, incomplete, or low-quality data. Analysis of HIV sequence data can provide an alternative source of information about epidemic history, population structure, and transmission patterns. To understand HIV-1 dynamics and transmission patterns in Senegal, we carried out model-based phylodynamic analyses using the structured-coalescent approach using HIV-1 sequence data from three different subgroups: reproductive aged males and females from the adult Senegalese population and men who have sex with other men (MSM). We fitted these phylodynamic analyses to time-scaled phylogenetic trees individually for subtypes C and CRF 02_AG, and for the combined data for subtypes B, C and CRF 02_AG. In general, the combined analysis showed a decreasing proportion of effective number of infections among all reproductive aged adults relative to MSM. However, we observed a nearly time-invariant distribution for subtype CRF 02_AG and an increasing trend for subtype C on the proportion of effective number of infections. The population attributable fraction also differed between analyses: subtype CRF 02_AG showed little contribution from MSM, while for subtype C and combined analyses this contribution was much higher. Despite observed differences, results suggested that the combination of high assortativity among MSM and the unmet HIV prevention and treatment needs represent a significant component of the HIV epidemic in Senegal.

Molecular epidemiology of canine parvovirus type 2 in Italy from 1994 to 2017: recurrence of the CPV-2b variant

Background

Canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) is the most important enteric virus infecting canids. It is a rapidly evolving virus; after its emergence in the 1970s, new antigenic variants (called CPV-2a, 2b and 2c) emerged and replaced the original antigenic type. The three antigenic variants are globally distributed with different frequencies and levels of genetic variability. This study focused on VP2 gene sequence analysis and the phylodynamics of CPV-2 which were detected in 123 dogs showing clinical signs of gastroenteritis collected in Italy from 1994 to 2017.

Results

For the most part, the sick dogs were young, and a third of them (32.5%) had been vaccinated. No statistical association was found between the CPV-2 antigenic variants, and sex, age, breed and vaccination status. Sequence analysis showed that all three antigenic types circulated in Italy; the CPV-2a type was the prominent genotype, followed by CPV-2c and CPV-2b, with notable differences regarding regional bases and significant fluctuations over time. Nucleotide sequence data showed high genetic heterogeneity with 67 nucleotide sequence types (ntSTs) identified, corresponding to 21 amino acid sequence types (aaSTs). The aaSTs and ntSTs obtained were distributed differently among the three CPV-2 antigenic variants: CPV-2a grouped 12/21 (57.1%) aaSTs and 41/67 (61.2%) ntSTs; CPV-2b grouped 5/21 (23.8%) aaSTs and 6/67 (8.9%) ntSTs, and CPV-2c grouped 4/21 (19.1%) aaSTs and 20/67 (29.9%) ntSTs. Canine parvovirus 2a was characterised by the highest genetic variability while CPV-2c was characterised by notable stability with a predominant amino acid profile during the entire sampling time. Canine parvovirus 2b re-emerged in recent years, showing a new and distinctive amino acid profile of the VP2 protein.

Conclusions

The findings of the present study provided new insights regarding the phylodynamics and evolution of CPV-2 in Italy, pointing out notable differences at the local level in the distribution of the CPV-2 variants and the selection of genetic subtypes. The evolution of CPV-2 has raised questions regarding the efficacy of vaccination; therefore, continuous monitoring regarding the evolution and spread of new CPV-2 variants should be a key aim of ongoing research.

Time-scaled phylogeography of complete Zika virus genomes using discrete and continuous space diffusion models

Zika virus (ZIKV), a vector-borne infectious agent that has recently been associated with neurological diseases and congenital microcephaly, was first reported in the Western hemisphere in early 2015. A number of authors have reconstructed its epidemiological history using advanced phylogenetic approaches, and the majority of Zika phylogeography studies have used discrete diffusion models. Continuous space diffusion models make it possible to infer the possible origin of the virus in real space by reconstructing its ancestral location on the basis of geographical coordinates deduced from the latitude and longitude of the sampling locations. We analysed all the ZIKV complete genome isolates whose sampling times and localities were available in public databases at the time the study began, using a Bayesian approach for discrete and continuous phylogeographic reconstruction. The discrete phylogeographic analysis suggested that ZIKV emerged to become endemic/epidemic in the first decade of the 1900s in the Ugandan rainforests, and then reached Western Africa and Asia between the 1930s and 1950s. After a long period of about 40 years, it spread to the Pacific islands and reached Brazil from French Polynesia. Continuous phylogeography of the American epidemic showed that the virus entered in north-eastern Brazil in late 2012 and started to spread in early 2013 from two high probability regions: one corresponding to the entire north-east Brazil and the second surrounding the city of Rio de Janeiro, in a mainly northwesterly direction to Central America, the north-western countries of south America and the Caribbean islands. Our data suggest its cryptic circulation in both French Polynesia and Brazil, thus raising questions about the mechanisms underlying its undetected persistence in the absence of a known animal reservoir, and underline the importance of continuous diffusion models in making more reliable phylogeographic reconstructions of emerging viruses.

Global phylodynamics of Echovirus 30 revealed differential behavior among viral lineages

Echovirus 30 (E30) is an important causative agent of aseptic meningitis worldwide. Despite this, the global and regional dispersion patterns, especially in South America, are still largely unknown. We performed an in-depth analysis of global E30 population dynamics, by using the VP1 sequences of 79 strains isolated in Argentina, between 1998 and 2012, and 856 sequences from GenBank. Furthermore, the 3D^pol regions of 329 sequences were analyzed to study potential recombination events. E30 evolution was characterized by co-circulation and continuous replacement of lineages over time, where four lineages appear to circulate at present and another four lineages appear to have stopped circulating. Five lineages showed a global distribution, whereas three other lineages had a more restricted circulation pattern. Strains isolated in South America belong to lineages E and F. Analysis of the 3D^pol region of Argentinean strains indicated that recombination events occurred in both lineages.

Inferring the global phylodynamics of influenza A/H3N2 viruses in Taiwan

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Influenza A/H3N2 viruses are characterized by highly mutated RNA genomes. In this study, we focused on tracing the phylodynamics of Taiwanese strains over the past four decades.

METHODS

All Taiwanese H3N2 HA1 sequences and references were downloaded from public database. A Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) and phylogenetic tree were used to analyze the evolutionary history, and Bayesian phylogeographic analysis was applied to predict the spatiotemporal migrations of influenza outbreaks.

RESULTS

Genetic diversity was found to have peaked near the summer of 2009 in BSP, in addition to the two earlier reported ones in summer of 2005 and 2007. We predicted their spatiotemporal migrations and found the summer epidemic of 2005 from Korea, and 2007 and 2009 from the Western United States. BSP also predicted an elevated genetic diversity in 2015-2017. Quasispecies were found over approximately 20% of the strains included in this time span. In addition, a first-time seen N31S mutation was noted in Taiwan in 2016-2017.

CONCLUSION

We comprehensively investigated the evolutionary history of Taiwanese strains in 1979-2017. An epidemic caution could thus be raised if genetic diversity was found to have peaked. An example showed a newly-discovered cluster in 2016-2017 strains featuring a mutation N31S together with HA-160 quasispecies. Phylogeographic analysis, moreover, provided useful insights in tracing the possible source and migrations of these epidemics around the world. We demonstrated that Asian destinations including Taiwan were the immediate followers, while U.S. continent was predicted the origin of two summer epidemics in 2007 and 2009.

The diversity, evolution and epidemiology of plant viruses: A phylogenetic view

During the past four decades, the scientific community has seen an exponential advance in the number, sophistication, and quality of molecular techniques and bioinformatics tools for the genetic characterization of plant virus populations. Predating these advances, the field of Phylogenetics has significantly contributed to understand important aspects of plant virus evolution. This review aims at summarizing the impact of Phylogenetics in the current knowledge on three major aspects of plant virus evolution that have benefited from the development of phylogenetic inference: (1) The identification and classification of plant virus diversity. (2) The mechanisms and forces shaping the evolution of plant virus populations. (3) The understanding of the interaction between plant virus evolution, epidemiology and ecology. The work discussed here highlights the important role of phylogenetic approaches in the study of the dynamics of plant virus populations.

Inferring demographic parameters in bacterial genomic data using Bayesian and hybrid phylogenetic methods

Background

Recent developments in sequencing technologies make it possible to obtain genome sequences from a large number of isolates in a very short time. Bayesian phylogenetic approaches can take advantage of these data by simultaneously inferring the phylogenetic tree, evolutionary timescale, and demographic parameters (such as population growth rates), while naturally integrating uncertainty in all parameters. Despite their desirable properties, Bayesian approaches can be computationally intensive, hindering their use for outbreak investigations involving genome data for a large numbers of pathogen isolates. An alternative to using full Bayesian inference is to use a hybrid approach, where the phylogenetic tree and evolutionary timescale are estimated first using maximum likelihood. Under this hybrid approach, demographic parameters are inferred from estimated trees instead of the sequence data, using maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference, or approximate Bayesian computation. This can vastly reduce the computational burden, but has the disadvantage of ignoring the uncertainty in the phylogenetic tree and evolutionary timescale.

Results

We compared the performance of a fully Bayesian and a hybrid method by analysing six whole-genome SNP data sets from a range of bacteria and simulations. The estimates from the two methods were very similar, suggesting that the hybrid method is a valid alternative for very large datasets. However, we also found that congruence between these methods is contingent on the presence of strong temporal structure in the data (i.e. clocklike behaviour), which is typically verified using a date-randomisation test in a Bayesian framework. To reduce the computational burden of this Bayesian test we implemented a date-randomisation test using a rapid maximum likelihood method, which has similar performance to its Bayesian counterpart.

Conclusions

Hybrid approaches can produce reliable inferences of evolutionary timescales and phylodynamic parameters in a fraction of the time required for fully Bayesian analyses. As such, they are a valuable alternative in outbreak studies involving a large number of isolates.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-018-1210-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evolutionary dynamics of Hepatitis C virus in a chronic HIV co-infected patient and its correlation with the immune status

The HCV evolutionary dynamics play a key role in the infection onset, maintenance of chronicity, pathogenicity, and drug resistance variants fixation, and are thought to be one of the main caveats in the development of an effective vaccine. Previous studies in HCV/HIV co-infected patients suggest that a decline in the immune status is related with increases in the HCV intra-host genetic diversity. However, these findings are based on single point sequence diversity measures or coalescence analyses in several virus-host interactions. In this work, we describe the molecular evolution of HCV-E2 region in a single HIV-co-infected patient with two clearly defined immune conditions. The phylogenetic analysis of the HCV-1a sequences from the studied patient showed that he was co-infected with three different viral lineages. These lineages were not evenly detected throughout time. The sequence diversity and coalescence analyses of these lineages suggested the action of different evolutionary patterns in different immune conditions: a slow rate, drift-like process in an immunocompromised condition (low levels of CD4+ T lymphocytes); and a fast rate, variant-switch process in an immunocompetent condition (high levels of CD4+ T lymphocytes).

Phylodynamic analysis and molecular diversity of the avian infectious bronchitis virus of chickens in Brazil

Avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is the etiological agent of a highly contagious disease, which results in severe economic losses to the poultry industry. The spike protein (S1 subunit) is responsible for the molecular diversity of the virus and many sero/genotypes are described around the world. Recently a new standardized classification of the IBV molecular diversity was conducted, based on phylogenetic analysis of the S1 gene sequences sampled worldwide. Brazil is one of the biggest poultry producers in the world and the present study aimed to review the molecular diversity and reconstruct the evolutionary history of IBV in the country. All IBV S1 gene sequences, with local and year of collection information available on GenBank, were retrieved. Phylogenetic analyses were carried out based on a maximum likelihood method for the classification of genotypes occurring in Brazil, according to the new classification. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were performed with the Brazilian clade and related international sequences to determine the evolutionary history of IBV in Brazil. A total of 143 Brazilian sequences were classified as GI-11 and 46 as GI-1 (Mass). Within the GI-11 clade, we have identified a potential recombinant strain circulating in Brazil. Phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that IBV GI-11 lineage was introduced in Brazil in the 1950s (1951, 1917-1975 95% HPD) and population dynamics was mostly constant throughout the time. Despite the national vaccination protocols, our results show the widespread dissemination and maintenance of the IBV GI-11 lineage in Brazil and highlight the importance of continuous surveillance to evaluate the impact of currently used vaccine strains on the observed viral diversity of the country.

Phylodynamics of Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in South Russia

Phylodynamics of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) genotype V in South Russia was analyzed using 244 partial (452-571 nt) sequences in all three genomic segments and 38 complete genomic sequences. Despite increased number of sequences, the Russian lineage of the European genotype V (commonly termed GtVa) was distinct from GtV isolates from Turkey and the Balkan countries. No geographic pattern was observed in phylogenetic subgrouping of CCHFV within South Russia. Identical isolates could be found at distant locations spaced by hundreds of kilometers, while relatively divergent viruses circulated in the same region. Full genome analysis indicated that reassortment events within GtVa occurred every few decades (median half-life of a non-reassortant node 30-40 years) and involved M and S segments. Therefore, in South Russia CCHFV represents a highly dynamic population of frequently reassorting viruses.

In-depth phylodynamics, evolutionary analysis and in silico predictions of universal epitopes of Influenza A subtypes and Influenza B viruses

This study applied High-Performance Computing to explore the high-resolution phylodynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses (IVs) A and B and their subtypes in-depth to identify peptide-based candidates for broad-spectrum vaccine targets. For this purpose, we collected all the available Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA) nucleotide and amino acid sequences (more than 100,000) of IVs isolated from all the reservoirs and intermediate hosts species, from all geographic ranges and from different isolation sources, covering a period of almost one century of sampling years. We highlight that despite the constant changes in Influenza evolutionary dynamics over time, which are responsible for the generation of novel strains, our study identified the presence of highly conserved peptides distributed in all the HA and NA found in H1-H18 and N1-N11 IAV subtypes and IBVs. Additionally, predictions through computational methods showed that these peptides could have a strong affinity to bind to HLA-A∗02:01/HLA-DRB1∗01:01 major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I and II molecules, therefore acting as a double ligand. Moreover, epitope prediction in antigens from pathogens responsible for secondary bacterial infection was also studied. These findings show that the regions mapped here may potentially be explored as universal epitope-based candidates to develop therapies leading to a broader response against the infection induced by all circulating IAVs, IBVs and Influenza-associated bacterial infections.

Dynamics of widespread foot-and-mouth disease virus serotypes A, O and Asia-1 in southern Asia: A Bayesian phylogenetic perspective

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is, arguably, the animal disease with the most devastating global economic impact owing in part, to the severe trade restrictions imposed upon affected countries and regions. South Asia is one of the regions where widespread lineages of the FMDV virus (FMDV) have emerged. Here, we performed an integrative phylogenetic analysis of all FMDV serotypes (A, O and Asia-1) circulating in southern Asia, including viral sequences collected until 2013. Our results describe the occurrence of FMD caused by different serotypes and lineages, focusing in the cycles where a specific lineage predominates within a region for a protracted period and then are rapidly or progressively replaced by an emergent or re-emergent strain that is introduced from an adjacent region. Transmission between the two main regions in southern Asia (the Indian subcontinent and the region comprised by Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan) has been limited. Results of time divergence estimation of lineages that currently circulate in this region indicate that the most recent common ancestor of endemic lineages are: 1992 [1989-1995] for lineage O/PanAsia; 1997 [1995-1999] for PanAsia2; 2001 [1998-2004] for O/Ind2001; 2001 [2000-2002] for A/Iran-05; 1990 [1988-1991] for A/G-18 (G-VII); 2003 [2000-2006] for Asia-1 Sindh08 and 2002 [1999-2004] for Asia-1 G-VIII. We estimated the mean of the overall substitution rate of the VP1 coding region (substitution/site/year) for serotype O (5.95 × 10^-3 ), serotype A (1.19 × 10^-2 ) and serotype Asia-1 (3.08 × 10^-3 ). The potential factors driving the lineage turnover are discussed. Our results provide insights into the ecological and evolutionary factors driving the emergence of FMDV.

Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases

Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors. We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Brazil during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was responsible for the first global flu pandemic in 21st century affecting all the world. In Brazil, A(H1N1)pdm09 is still circulating as a seasonal virus, causing deaths every year. Nevertheless, the viral diffusion process that yearly seeds new influenza strains in the country was not investigated yet. The aim of the current study was to describe the phylodynamics and phylogeography of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Brazil between 2009 and 2014. Neuraminidase sequences from Brazil and other regions of the World were retrieved and analyzed. Bayesian phylogeographic and phylodynamic model approaches were used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal and demographic history of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Brazil (divided in subtropical and tropical regions) and related countries. Our analyses reveal that new influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 lineages are seeded in Brazil in almost each year and the main sources of viral diversity are North America, Europe and East Asia. The phylogeographic asymmetric model also revealed that Brazil, mainly the subtropical region, seeds viral lineages into other countries. Coalescent analysis of the compiled dataset reconstructed the peak of viral transmissions in the winter months of Southern hemisphere. The results presented in this study can be informative to public health, guide intervention strategies and in the understanding of flu virus migration, which helps to predict antigenic drift and consequently the developing of new vaccines.

Phylodynamic applications in 21st century global infectious disease research

BACKGROUND

Phylodynamics, the study of the interaction between epidemiological and pathogen evolutionary processes within and among populations, was originally defined in the context of rapidly evolving viruses and used to characterize transmission dynamics. The concept of phylodynamics has evolved since the early 21st century, extending its reach to slower-evolving pathogens, including bacteria and fungi, and to the identification of influential factors in disease spread and pathogen population dynamics.

RESULTS

The phylodynamic approach has now become a fundamental building block for the development of comparative phylogenetic tools capable of incorporating epidemiological surveillance data with molecular sequences into a single statistical framework. These innovative tools have greatly enhanced scientific investigations of the temporal and geographical origins, evolutionary history, and ecological risk factors associated with the growth and spread of viruses such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Zika, and dengue and bacteria such as Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

CONCLUSIONS

Capitalizing on an extensive review of the literature, we discuss the evolution of the field of infectious disease epidemiology and recent accomplishments, highlighting the advancements in phylodynamics, as well as the challenges and limitations currently facing researchers studying emerging pathogen epidemics across the globe.

The multi-faceted dynamics of HIV-1 transmission in Northern Alberta: A combined analysis of virus genetic and public health data

Molecular epidemiology has become a key tool for tracking infectious disease epidemics. Here, the spread of the most prevalent HIV-1 subtypes in Northern Alberta, Canada, was characterized with a Bayesian phylogenetic approach using 1146 HIV-1 pol sequences collected between 2007 and 2013 for routine clinical management purposes. Available patient metadata were qualitatively interpreted and correlated with onwards transmission using Fisher exact tests and logistic regression. Most infections were from subtypes A (n=36), B (n=815) and C (n=211). Africa is the dominant origin location for subtypes A and C while the subtype B epidemic was seeded from the USA and Middle America and, from the early 1990s onwards, mostly by interprovincial spread. Subtypes A (77.8%) and C (74.0%) were usually heterosexually transmitted and circulate predominantly among Blacks (61.1% and 85% respectively). Subtype B was mostly found among Caucasians (48.6%) and First Nations (36.8%), and its modes of transmission were stratified by ethnic origin. Compared to subtypes A (5.6%) and C (3.8-10.0%), a larger portion of subtype B patients were found within putative provincial transmission networks (20.3-29.5%), and this almost doubled when focusing on nationwide transmission clusters (37.9-57.5%). No clear association between cluster membership and particular patient characteristics was found. This study reveals complex and multi-faceted transmission dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in this otherwise low HIV prevalence population in Northern Alberta, Canada. These findings can aid public health planning.

Time-scale of minor HIV-1 complex circulating recombinant forms from Central and West Africa

Background

Several HIV-1 circulating recombinant forms with a complex mosaic structure (CRFs_cpx) circulate in central and western African regions. Here we reconstruct the evolutionary history of some of these complex CRFs (09_cpx, 11_cpx, 13_cpx and 45_cpx) and further investigate the dissemination dynamic of the CRF11_cpx clade by using a Bayesian coalescent-based method.

Results

The analysis of two HIV-1 datasets comprising 181 pol (36 CRF09_cpx, 116 CRF11_cpx, 20 CRF13_cpx and 9 CRF45_cpx) and 125 env (12 CRF09_cpx, 67 CRF11_cpx, 17 CRF13_cpx and 29 CRF45_cpx) sequences pointed to quite consistent onset dates for CRF09_cpx (~1966: 1958–1979), CRF11_cpx (~1957: 1950–1966) and CRF13_cpx (~1965: 1958–1973) clades; while some divergence was found for the estimated date of origin of CRF45_cpx clade [pol = 1970 (1964–1976); env = 1960 (1952–1969)]. Phylogeographic reconstructions indicate that the HIV-1 CRF11_cpx clade most probably emerged in Cameroon and from there it was first disseminated to the Central Africa Republic and Chad in the early 1970s and to other central and western African countries from the early 1980s onwards. Demographic reconstructions suggest that the CRF11_cpx epidemic grew between 1960 and 1990 with a median exponential growth rate of 0.27 year⁻¹, and stabilized after.

Conclusions

These results reveal that HIV-1 CRFs_cpx clades have been circulating in Central Africa for a period comparable to other much more prevalent HIV-1 group M lineages. Cameroon was probably the epicenter of dissemination of the CRF11_cpx clade that seems to have experienced a long epidemic growth phase before stabilization. The epidemic growth of the CRF11_cpx clade was roughly comparable to other HIV-1 group M lineages circulating in Central Africa.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0824-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The global spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome: an analysis fusing traditional epidemiological tracing and molecular phylodynamics

Background

Since its discovery in 2012, over 1700 confirmed cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) have been documented worldwide and more than a third of those cases have died. While the greatest number of cases has occurred in Saudi Arabia, the recent export of MERS-coronavirus (MERS-CoV) to Republic of Korea showed that a pandemic is a possibility that cannot be ignored. Due to the deficit of knowledge in transmission methodology, targeted treatment and possible vaccines, understanding this virus should be a priority. Our aim was to combine epidemiological data from literature with genetic information from viruses sequenced around the world to present a phylodynamic picture of MERS spread molecular level to global scale.

Methods

We performed a qualitative meta-analysis of all laboratory confirmed cases worldwide to date based on literature, with emphasis on international transmission and healthcare associated infections. In parallel, we used publicly available MERS-CoV genomes from GenBank to create a phylogeographic tree, detailing geospatial timeline of viral evolution.

Results

Several healthcare associated outbreaks starting with the retrospectively identified hospital outbreak in Jordan to the most recent outbreak in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia have occurred. MERS has also crossed many oceans, entering multiple nations in eight waves between 2012 and 2015. In this paper, the spatiotemporal history of MERS cases, as documented epidemiologically, was examined by Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. Distribution of sequences into geographic clusters and interleaving of MERS-CoV sequences from camels among those isolated from humans indicated that multiple zoonotic introductions occurred in endemic nations. We also report a summary of basic reproduction numbers for MERS-CoV in humans and camels.

Conclusion

Together, these analyses can help us identify factors associated with viral evolution and spread as well as establish efficacy of infection control measures. The results are especially pertinent to countries without current MERS-CoV endemic, since their unfamiliarity makes them particularly susceptible to uncontrollable spread of a virus that may be imported by travelers.