The development of future thinking: Young children’s ability to construct event sequences to achieve future goals

Three- and four-year-old children represent mutually exclusive possible identities

How do children think about and plan for possible outcomes of events that could happen in the future? Previous work that has investigated children's ability to think about mutually exclusive possibilities has largely focused on children's reasoning about one type of possibility-the possible locations of an object. Here, we investigated children's reasoning about another type of possibility-mutually exclusive possible identities. In two experiments (N = 201 U.S. 3- and 4-year-olds), children were told that two animal characters (e.g., a bunny and a monkey) were going to take turns sliding down a playground slide. Children were told that the animals wanted to eat their favorite foods (e.g., carrots and bananas, respectively) as soon as they got to the bottom of the slide. In an Unambiguous Identity condition, we told children the identity of the animal that would slide down. In an Ambiguous Identity condition, we told children that which animal would slide down first was unknown. To examine children's representations of possible identities, we asked children to "get snack ready." We found that children in the Unambiguous Identity condition selected only one of the snacks (i.e., the favorite snack of the animal they were told would slide down), whereas children in the Ambiguous Identity condition selected both snacks, suggesting that they were accounting for both possible identities. These results extend the literature on the development of modal reasoning to include reasoning about possible identities and suggest that this ability may be available to children as young as 3 years.

Three-year-olds' ability to plan for mutually exclusive future possibilities is limited primarily by their representations of possible plans, not possible events

The ability to prepare for mutually exclusive possible events in the future is essential for everyday decision making. Previous studies have suggested that this ability develops between the ages of 3 and 5 years, and in young children is primarily limited by the ability to represent the set of possible outcomes of an event as "possible". We tested an alternative hypothesis that this ability may be limited by the ability to represent the set of possible actions that could be taken to prepare for those possible outcomes. We adapted the inverted y-shaped tube task of Redshaw and Suddendorf (2016), in which children are asked to catch a marble that is dropped into the top of the tube and can emerge from either the left or right branch of the tube. While 4-year-olds typically place their hands under both openings to catch the marble, preparing for both possible outcomes (optimal action), 3-year-olds often cover only one opening, preparing for only one possible outcome (suboptimal action). In three Experiments, we asked whether first showing children the set of possible actions that could be taken on the tube would enable them to recognize the optimal action that should be used to catch the marble (Experiments 1 and 3, total n = 99 US 3- and 4-year-olds) and enable them to use the optimal action themselves (Experiment 2, n = 96 US 3- and 4-year-olds). We found that 3- and 4-year-olds performed similarly when they were given the opportunity to observe the set of possible actions beforehand. These findings suggest that 3-year-olds' competence at representing mutually exclusive possibilities may be masked by their developing ability to represent and deploy plans to act on these possibilities.

"Plan chunking" expands 3-year-olds' ability to complete multiple-step plans

The ability to use knowledge to guide the completion of goals is a critical cognitive skill, but 3-year-olds struggle to complete goals that require multiple steps. This study asked whether 3-year-olds could benefit from "plan chunking" to complete multistep goals. Thirty-two U.S. children (range = 35.75-46.59 months; 18 girls; 9 white, 3 mixed race, 20 unknown; tested between July 2020 and April 2021) were asked to complete "treasure maps," retrieving four colored map pieces by pressing specific buttons on a "rainbow box." Children completed more of the four-step sequence correctly when the steps were presented in a way that encouraged chunking the steps into pairs. These findings suggest a potential mechanism supporting memory-guided planning abilities in early childhood.

Two-year-olds use past memories to accomplish novel goals

Memory-guided planning involves retrieving relevant memories and applying that information in service of a goal. Previous studies have shown substantial development in this ability from 3 to 4 years of age. We investigated the emergence of memory-guided planning by asking whether 2-year-olds could draw on episodic memories of past experiences to generate and execute plans. In Experiments 1 and 2 (N = 32, ds > .7), 2-year-olds successfully did so, and this ability developed significantly across the third year of life. Furthermore, in Experiment 3 (N = 19, d = 0.63), 2-year-olds successfully applied episodic memories to guide plans in a novel problem context, suggesting flexibility in this ability. Together, these results suggest that some form of memory-guided planning emerges during the third year of life and may form the cognitive basis for episodic prospection later in development.

Targeted self-regulation interventions in low-income children: Clinical trial results and implications for health behavior change

Self-regulation, known as the ability to harness cognitive, emotional, and motivational resources to achieve goals, is hypothesized to contribute to health behaviors across the lifespan. Enhancing self-regulation early in life may increase positive health outcomes. During pre-adolescence, children assume increased autonomy in health behaviors (e.g., eating; physical activity), many of which involve self-regulation. This article presents results from a clinical trial (NCT03060863) that used a factorial design to test behavioral interventions designed to enhance self-regulation, specifically targeting executive functioning, emotion regulation, future-oriented thinking, and approach biases. Participants were 118 children (9-12 years of age, M = 10.2 years) who had a history of living in poverty. They were randomized to receive up to four interventions that were delivered via home visits. Self-regulation was assayed using behavioral tasks, observations, interviews, and parent- and child-report surveys. Results were that self-regulation targets were reliably assessed and that interventions were delivered with high fidelity. Intervention effect sizes were very small to moderate (d range = .02-.65, median = .14), and most were not statistically significant. Intercorrelation analyses indicated that associations between measures within each target varied based on the self-regulation target evaluated. Results are discussed with regard to the role of self-regulation-focused interventions in child health promotion. Implications of findings are reviewed for informing next steps in behavioral self-regulation interventions among children from low-income backgrounds.

Back to the future: relating the development of episodic future thinking to cognitive and affective individual differences and to motivational relevance in preschoolers

Episodic future thinking (EFT) represents the ability to mentally simulate scenarios that will occur in our personal future. In the current study, we used the item choice paradigm, which puts chidren in a problematic situation and requires them to envision a solution by selecting one of various items. This ability was assessed in a sample of 92 preschoolers (3-6 years old), taking into account individual differences in age, gender, cognitive (verbal abilities, EFT memory) and affective (anxiety) factors, as well as contextual factors (motivational relevance). Findings indicate developmental progress in preschoolers' foresight and in their retrospective memory for the item choice problems. The motivational valence of the EFT task played a significant role, as children performed better in the motivationally positive condition, as compared to the neutral and negative ones. However, older children had better performance than younger ones on the motivationally aversive tasks, becoming comparable to their performance in the motivationally appetitive condition. Finally, higher social anxiety was negatively related to children's EFT performance in the aversive condition, when they anticipated negative social exposure. In conclusion, EFT was explained by age-related improvements, the motivational valence of the situation and by individual differences in social anxiety, which is highly relevant for educational and therapeutic practices.

Friendship is more than strategic reciprocity: Preschoolers' selective sharing with friends cannot be reduced to strategic concerns

The current study investigated whether children share especially much with their friends when sharing can be reciprocated (strategic sharing) or whether friendship and strategic reciprocity are independent factors in predicting children's sharing. If the former is the case, children should prefer their friend relatively more in a situation where the friend can reciprocate than in a situation without the possibility for reciprocity. In two experiments, 3- and 5-year-old participants (N = 270) could distribute stickers between themselves and three recipients: a friend, a child who would join the kindergarten group the next day, and a stranger. Half of the children were led to believe that their generosity could be reciprocated, and the other half were not. In Experiment 1, this was implemented by anonymous and nonanonymous sharing. In Experiment 2, the possibility of reciprocity or lack thereof was explicitly mentioned. The results show that participants across both age groups shared more resources with their friend than with less familiar recipients. Potential reciprocity affected 5-year-olds' sharing but not 3-year-olds' sharing-but only if reciprocity was explicitly mentioned (Experiment 2). Importantly, the preference for the friend was independent of the possibility to be reciprocated for all children. The current study shows that friendship and strategic reciprocity are relevant but probably largely independent factors for children's sharing. That is, the preference to share with friends cannot be reduced to strategic considerations.

Improving prospective memory in school-aged children: Effects of future thinking and performance predictions

Recently, event-based prospective memory (PM) performance of children has been shown to benefit from different encoding strategies such as imagining the execution of a future PM task (i.e., future thinking) and making performance predictions (i.e., metacognitive monitoring). This study aimed to investigate whether and how these two encoding strategies affect PM performance alone and in combination. For this purpose, 127 children aged 8-11 years were assigned to four encoding conditions: (a) standard, (b) performance predictions, (c) future thinking, and (d) future thinking + performance predictions. The ongoing task performance costs (i.e., attentional monitoring), working memory (WM) span, and metacognitive monitoring judgments, such as task difficulty expectations, performance postdictions, confidence judgments, and strategy use, were also evaluated among participants. The results show that combining future thinking instructions with performance predictions considerably improved children's PM performance without incurring additional attentional monitoring costs. Moreover, whereas children generally tended to overestimate their PM performance, more realistic lower-performance predictions were related to higher PM scores for children in the combined condition. Finally, age, WM, and strategy use significantly predicted PM performance independent of the encoding condition. This study is the first to demonstrate that combining future thinking instructions with performance predictions enhances children's PM performance compared with each encoding strategy alone. Moreover, this work is the first to show that by simply imagining the execution of a PM task, children's prediction accuracy can be improved, which is significantly related to the PM performance advantage.

Why do preschoolers perpetuate inequalities? Theoretical perspectives on inequity preferences in the face of emerging concerns for equality

Recent research has shown that preschool children tend to preferentially allocate resources to rich than to poor others. The findings that young children tend to perpetuate inequalities are puzzling given classical developmental theories that largely focused on the emergence of equality and equity in childhood. In this review, we first sketch the early ontogeny of fairness concerns before providing an overview on studies reporting perpetuation of inequality in young children. We review four classical theories (Piaget, Kohlberg, Damon, Social Domain Theory) and discuss how they would account for this phenomenon. We then introduce four recent theoretical models that directly speak to the underlying psychological processes; the affective preference model, the reciprocity-based strategic model, the numerical matching model, and the normative model. We highlight the key tenets of each model, their relation to other developmental processes, and the strength of the empirical evidence. From each model, we derive specific hypotheses. Finally, in an integrative section we discuss how the models might relate to each other, highlight connections to other research areas, and present avenues for future research.

Examining the limits of Memory-Guided Planning in 3- and 4-year olds

Stored memories may be drawn upon when accomplishing goals. In two experiments, we investigated limits on the ability to use episodic memories to support planning in 3- and 4-year-old children. We designed a new memory-guided planning task that required children to both retrieve memories and apply those memories to accomplish multiple, nested goals. We manipulated the difficulty of the task by varying the number of steps required to achieve the goals, and examined the impact of this manipulation on both memory retrieval and planning. We found that, overall, 4-year-olds outperformed 3-year-olds, but as task difficulty increased, all children made more errors. Analysis of these errors suggested that retrieval and planning processes might impose separate limits on memory-guided planning in early childhood, but that these limits may ease across early childhood.

It is about time: Conceptual and experimental evaluation of the temporal cognitive mechanisms in mental time travel

Mental time travel (MTT) is the ability that allows humans to mentally project themselves backwards in time to remember past events (i.e., episodic memory) or forwards in time to imagine future events (i.e., future thinking). Despite empirical evidence showing that animals might possess MTT abilities, some still claim that this ability is uniquely human. Recent debates have suggested that it is the temporal cognitive mechanism (i.e., ability to represent the sense of past and future) that makes MTT uniquely human. Advances in the field have been constrained by a lack of comparative data, methodological shortcomings that prevent meaningful comparisons, and a lack of clear conceptualizations of the temporal cognitive mechanism. Here I will present a comprehensive review into MTT in humans and animals-with a particular focus on great apes. I will examine three of the most prominent and influential theoretical models of human MTT. Drawing on these accounts, I suggest that a basic way of understanding time might be shared across species, however culture and language will play a critical role at shaping the way we elaborate mental representations about past and future events. This article is categorized under: Cognitive Biology > Evolutionary Roots of Cognition Psychology > Comparative Psychology.

"What Should You Bring with You to This Place?": Examining Children's Episodic Foresight Using Open-Ended Questions

Children's episodic foresight, the ability to mentally project oneself into the future to pre-experience an event (e.g., Atance & O'Neill, 2005), begins to emerge early in the preschool years. Results from the Picture-book task (Atance & Meltzoff, 2005) have shown that children are generally capable of selecting an item needed in the future (from provided options), but young preschoolers have difficulty justifying their choice with future-oriented explanations. Because episodic foresight has typically been measured using forced-choice questions (such as the Picture-book task) less is known about children's more naturalistic and "open-ended" future thinking (i.e., more spontaneous forms of episodic foresight). Forty-eight 3-to 5-year-olds completed a new, open-ended version of the Picture-book task. Using a descriptive approach, we found that children were able to generate an appropriate item to bring with them to a future location, and that this ability improved with age. Temporal focus as well as internal (episodic) and external (semantic) details were explored in the context of children's explanations. Children's explanations were mostly present-oriented and included episodic and semantic details equally. Our findings extend our knowledge of children's episodic foresight by highlighting children's ability to solve future-oriented problems in an open-ended manner.

Kindergarten children's event memory: the role of action prediction in remembering

In two studies, kindergarteners participated in a series of staged events immediately preceded by pre-event interactions that were designed to identify factors relevant to improving recall. The events were based on preschool science-related activities and the experimental pre-event involved predicting actions to occur during a target event, manipulating types of cues available to support these predictive inferences. Action prediction did improve free recall, and effects may have influenced attentional processes evoked by actions generated and enacted. Although children effectively used outcome cues to predict actions, a one-to-one relation between pre-event action prediction patterns and recall did not occur. In combination with other findings, this result may suggest that increased attention during the target event may have supported the pre-event effect rather than integration of information between the pre-event and target event. Early childhood teachers engaging children in science activities should provide explicit cues to enhance usefulness of preparatory activities for recall.

A content analysis of hand hygiene materials targeting elementary-age children

Millions of dollars have been spent on the design and dissemination of educational materials to improve handwashing to prevent infectious diseases. School-age children have been the focus of many of these efforts; yet little is known about the content of these materials. This study uses content analysis to examine the theoretical and motivational trends as well as the communication approach used in a sample of hand hygiene intervention materials targeting elementary-age children. Two trained coders analyzed 144 communication materials. Study results indicate that educational materials infrequently exhibit information consistent with theories of communication for behavior change, commonly use fear-based messaging, and rarely recommend using technology in the design of the interventions. Implications for future research and the design of more strategic, child-focused hand hygiene interventions are discussed.

Past is prologue: The role of memory retrieval in young children's episodic prospection

Prior research has revealed a strong link between the ability to remember one's past (i.e., episodic memory) and the ability to envision one's future (i.e., episodic prospection). Indeed, the past holds valuable learning experiences that can inform future choices and plans. Although these abilities both emerge during preschool years, there exist few theoretical accounts of how memory processes might support developmental improvements in prospection abilities. We developed a novel paradigm to determine whether young children (3 and 4 years of age) use past knowledge to inform future choices. Experiment 1 revealed that children find it more difficult to retrieve relevant information from their past when they envision the future versus reflect on the past. Experiment 2 facilitated children's access to past event components and, thereby, eased retrieval of relevant components from memory for future event construction. We discuss results in light of recent proposals on the development of episodic prospection.

Semantic future thinking and executive functions at age 4: The moderating role of frontal brain electrical activity

Previous studies provide conflicting results regarding the relation between future thinking and executive functioning during early childhood. Furthermore, little is known of the neural mechanisms involved in future thinking during early childhood. We examined the moderating role of frontal electroencephalogram (EEG) activity on the relation between executive functioning and semantic future thinking performance in a sample of 4-year-old children. Our results suggest that frontal EEG moderates the relation between executive functioning and semantic future thinking performance, but only for medium to high levels of frontal EEG power values. These results provide emerging evidence regarding the role of both executive functioning and frontal brain electrical activity on semantic future thinking in 4-year-olds.

Working Memory Deficit as a Risk Factor for Severe Apathy in Schizophrenia: A 1-Year Longitudinal Study

Apathy, described as impaired motivation and goal-directed behavior, is a common yet often overlooked multidimensional psychopathological state in schizophrenia. Its underlying cognitive processes remain largely unexplored. Data was drawn from a longitudinal hospital study of patients with a DSM-IV diagnosis of schizophrenia; 137 (82.5%) participated at the 1-month follow-up and 81 (59.1%) at the 1-year follow-up. Apathy was assessed with the Lille Apathy Rating Scale, validated in French and in schizophrenia. Severe apathy, overall (total score > -13) and on 4 previously identified distinct dimensions, was considered. Episodic verbal learning was assessed with the California Verbal Learning Test, executive functioning with the Trail Making Test, the Six Element Test and the Stop Signal Paradigm and working memory with the Letter-Number Sequencing Test. After controlling for confounding variables, only episodic verbal learning was associated with severe overall apathy in the cross-sectional study. At 1 year, working memory was associated with an increased risk of severe overall apathy, adjusting for baseline apathy. Using a dimensional approach to apathy, specific types of cognition were found to be associated with specific dimensions of apathy. Our findings confirm the need for a multidimensional approach of negative symptoms in schizophrenia. Moreover, cognitive functioning could be a risk factor for developing severe apathy. Cognitive remediation may thus be a useful non-pharmacological intervention for treating apathy in schizophrenia patients.

The emergence of cognitive short-term planning : performance of preschoolers in a problem-solving task

The aim of this study is to identify patterns of the cognitive planning process of young children emerging in the context of a problem solving task. Using a complex dynamic systems approach, this paper depicts the main features of cognitive planning in the short term. Participants were 45 preschool children (aged 3.5 and 3.6 years) of which two case studies are described in detail. The microgenetic method was used to capture, in two months, the planning process in real time during six sessions of data collection. Thus, 96 measuring points were obtained for each child of the sample. The instrument used was a problem solving task in a virtual format, which requires the development of a plan to attain the goal. The first part of the analysis characterizes the children’s planning performance by means of cluster analysis. Two clusters were identified as a result of this analysis. In order to illustrate the performance of the sample, one child from each cluster was randomly selected as a case study. The second part of the analysis describes the two case studies. The State Space Grids (SSG) technique was used to show the short-term emergence of cognitive planning. Results of the case studies revealed two types of performance: a reduction pattern and a stable pattern of cognitive planning. These patterns indicate the ability of children to integrate the constraints of the task and consider future states in their actions. In contrast to the literature, the findings of this study reveal the resources in planning skills of preschoolers, such as self-regulation of actions aimed at attaining a goal and anticipation of future states.

Play or learn: European-American and Chinese kindergartners' perceptions about the conflict

BACKGROUND

Kindergarten is the age at which children's future time perspective emerges. This capacity enables them to form goals based on past and ongoing experiences and project themselves in the future. This development may play an important role in guiding children in self-regulated learning. When faced with the conflict between their need to learn and their desire to play (CLP), children make choices based on their perceptions of CLP. However, their CLP-related perceptions and responses are also influenced by the values their culture upholds. Research shows that Western learning emphasizes more mental activities and positive affect, whereas East Asian learning stresses more social/moral self-perfection. Children's CLP-related perceptions and responses are likely shaped by their respective cultures' values.

AIMS

This study examined kindergartners' emergent perceptions of and responses to CLP. Both commonalities and possible cultural differences were investigated.

SAMPLE

The sample was 130 middle-class European-American and Chinese kindergartners, balanced for culture and gender.

METHOD

Children each heard a story beginning with a picture of a protagonist who is practicing words at home but hears children playing outside. Children were asked to complete the story and were probed further when they mentioned ideas related to learning and play. All interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed for coding. Tests were conducted for group differences.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Most children from both groups identified CLP and shared similar views about their need to complete schoolwork, benefits of learning, negativity of neglecting learning, and ways to resist temptation to play. However, large cultural differences also emerged. Chinese children showed greater awareness of CLP and expressed more positive regard for learning, learning virtues, and receptivity to adult expectations.

Direct cost does not impact on young children's spontaneous helping behavior

The propensity of humans to engage in prosocial behavior is unlike that of any other species. Individuals will help others even when it comes at a cost to themselves, and even when the others are complete strangers. However, to date, scant empirical evidence has been forthcoming on young children's altruistic tendencies. To investigate this 45 4-year-olds were presented with a task in which they had opportunity to help an adult confederate retrieve a reward from a novel box. In a control condition children were given no information about the effect of potential helping behavior. Alternatively they were informed that helping would either cost them (i.e., they would miss out on getting the reward) or benefit them (i.e., they would get the reward). It was hypothesized that children would be less likely, and slower, to help in the cost condition, compared to the other two conditions. This hypothesis was not supported: children across all conditions provided help at near ceiling levels.