A multi-scale modelling approach for analysing landscape service dynamics

Restoration of linear disturbances from oil-and-gas exploration in boreal landscapes: How can network models help?

In western Canada, decades of oil-and-gas exploration have fragmented boreal landscapes with a dense network of linear forest disturbances (seismic lines). These seismic lines are implicated in the decline in wildlife populations that are adapted to function in unfragmented forest landscapes. In particular, anthropogenic disturbances have led to a decline of woodland caribou populations due to increasing predator access to core caribou habitat. Restoration of seismic lines aims to reduce the landscape fragmentation and stop the decline of caribou populations. However, planning restoration in complex landscapes can be challenging because it must account for a multitude of diverse aspects. To assist with restoration planning, we present a spatial network optimization approach that selects restoration locations in a fragmented landscape while addressing key environmental and logistical constraints. We applied the model to develop restoration scenarios in the Redrock-Prairie Creek caribou range in northwestern Alberta, Canada, which includes a combination of caribou habitat and active oil-and-gas and timber extraction areas. Our study applies network optimization at two distinct scales to address both the broad-scale restoration policy planning and project-level constraints at the level of individual forest sites. We first delineated a contiguous set of coarse-scale regions where restoration is most cost-effective and used this solution to solve a fine-scale network optimization model that addresses environmental and logistical planning constraints at the level of forest patches. Our two-tiered approach helps address the challenges of fine-scale spatial optimization of restoration activities. An additional coarse-scale optimization step finds a feasible starting solution for the fine-scale restoration problem, which serves to reduce the time to find an optimal solution. The added coarse-scale spatial constraints also make the fine-scale restoration solution align with the coarse-scale landscape features, which helps address the broad-scale restoration policies. The approach is generalizable and applicable to assist restoration planning in other regions fragmented by oil-and-gas activities.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ecosystem Services at Watershed and Landscape Scales: A Case Analysis of the Yellow River Basin (Henan Section)

The changes and interrelationships of ecosystem services at different global and regional scales have been actively investigated. Clarifying the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services from a multi-scale scientific perspective is vital to improve the coordinated and sustainable development of the watershed and ecological protection. As an important ecological barrier region of the Yellow River Basin, the Henan section provides a variety of important ecosystem services. This study analyzes the characteristics of land use changes in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1990 to 2020. Based on the InVEST model, four ecosystem services-water production, soil conservation, carbon storage and food supply have been evaluated. The Spearman correlation coefficient was used to further reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of the trade-offs and synergies at different levels of each service. The results showed that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the basin was dominated by farmland conservation. The construction land area mainly exhibited an inflow behavior, while other land use types were mainly related to outflow. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the water yield, soil conservation and carbon storage first increased and then decreased, while food supply gradually increased. The spatial distribution of these ecosystem services was lower in the southwest and slightly higher in the northeast and farmland had the highest capacity of water production and food supply, while woodland had the highest capacity for soil conservation and carbon storage. (3) The Spearman rank correlation coefficient indicated that the trade-offs for the ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) dominated before 2000, and the synergies gradually strengthened after 2000. (4) There were clear spatial heterogeneities in the ecosystem services of the basin; for instance, the functions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) were mainly trade-offs, while the higher elevations in the middle reaches exhibited synergistic relationships. This study aims to clarify the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services at the different levels. Based on our findings, countermeasures and suggestions for ecological protection and management are proposed to promote the coordinated development of social economy and ecological protection.

Analysis of Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ulansuhai Basin

As an important grain production base and ecological barrier zone in China, Ulansuhai Basin provides a variety of important ecosystem services and ensures human well-being, and it is essential to maintain the sustainable development of the regional ecology–economy–society. Therefore, in order to explore the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in Ulansuhai Basin, we first evaluated the spatio-temporal characteristics of five ecosystem services in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018 based on the InVEST model, including soil conservation, carbon storage, water production, water purification, and food supply. We then further analyzed the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services in Ulansuhai Basin and in different functional areas through using the Spearman correlation coefficient. The results show that different ecosystem services had obvious regional differences due to different land-use types in Ulansuhai Basin. Soil conservation, carbon storage, and water production were higher in the eastern region and lower in the central and western regions, while water purification and food supply were higher in the central region and lower in the eastern and western regions. Ecosystem services showed an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2018. Moreover, trade-off was the dominant relationship between different ecosystem services, and trade-offs and synergies showed strengthening trends to a certain extent. The trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services in different functional areas were obviously different. Our study aimed to clarify the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services and to propose ecological protection and management countermeasures and suggestions, which can provide decision-making reference for regional ecological protection and management.

Towards an enhanced indication of provisioning ecosystem services in agro-ecosystems

Provisioning ecosystem services play a vital role in sustaining human well-being. Agro-ecosystems contribute a significant share of these services, besides food and fodder and also fuel and fibre as well as regulating and cultural ecosystem services. Until now, the indication of provisioning ecosystem services of agro-ecosystems has been based almost only on yield numbers of agricultural products. Such an indication is problematic due to several reasons which include a disregard of the role of significant anthropogenic contributions to ecosystem service co-generation, external environmental effects and strong dependence on site conditions. We argue for an enhanced indication of provisioning ecosystem services that considers multiple aspects of their delivery. The conceptual base for such an indication has been made by prior publications which have been reviewed. Relevant points were taken up in this article and condensed into a conceptual model in order to develop a more holistic and expanded set of indictors, which was then exemplarily applied and tested in three case studies in Germany. The case studies represent different natural conditions, and the indicator set application showed that ecosystem services (ES) flow-in terms of output alone-does not characterise agro-ecosystems sufficiently. The proposed aspects of provisioning ecosystem services can give a fuller picture, for example, by input-output relationships, as it is possible by just using single indicators. Uncertainties as well as pros and cons of such an approach are elaborated. Finally, recommendations for an enhanced indication of provisioning ecosystem services in agro-ecosystems that can help to integrate agricultural principles with ideas of sustainability and site-specific land use are derived.

A Spatial Decision Support System for Multifunctional Landscape Assessment: A Transformative Resilience Perspective for Vulnerable Inland Areas

The concept of transformative resilience has emerged from the recent literature and represents a way to interpret the potential opportunities for change in vulnerable territories, where a socioeconomic change is required. This article extends the perspective of transformative resilience to an assessment of the landscape multifunctionality of inland areas, exploring the potential of identifying a network of synergies among the different municipalities that is able to trigger a process of territorial resilience. A spatial decision support system (SDSS) for multifunctionality landscape assessment aims to help local actors understand local resources and multifunctional values of the Partenio Regional Park (PRP) and surrounding municipalities, in the South of Italy, stimulating their cooperation in the management of environmental and cultural sites and the codesign of new strategies of enhancement. The elaboration of spatial indicators according to Landscape Services classification and the interaction between the “Analytic Network Process” (ANP) method, spatial weighted overly and geographic information system (GIS) support the identification of a preferable scenario able to activate a transformative resilience strategy in selected vulnerable inland areas, which can be scaled up in other similar contexts.

Driving Factors of Land Change in China’s Loess Plateau: Quantification Using Geographically Weighted Regression and Management Implications

Land change is a key topic in research on global environmental change, and the restoration of degraded land is the core component of the global Land Degradation Neutrality target under the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this study, remote-sensing-derived land-use data were used to characterize the land-change processes in China’s Loess Plateau, which is experiencing large-scale ecological restoration. Geographically Weighted Regression was applied to capture the spatiotemporal variations in land change and driving-force relationships. First, we explored land-use change in the Loess Plateau for the period 1990–2015. Grassland, cropland and forestland were dominant land cover in the region, with a total percentage area of 88%. The region experienced dramatic land-use transitions during the study period: degraded grassland and wetland, expansion of cropland and built-up land and weak restoration of forestland during 1990–2000; and increases in grassland, built-up land, forestland and wetland, concurrent with shrinking cropland during 2000–2015. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis revealed altitude to be the common dominant factor associated with the four major land-use types (forestland, grassland, cropland and built-up land). Altitude and slope were found to be positively associated with forestland, while being negatively associated with cropland in the high, steep central region. For both forestland and grassland, temperature and precipitation behaved in a similar manner, with a positive hotspot in the northwest. Altitude, slope and distance to road were all negatively associated with built-up land across the region. The GWR captured the spatial non-stationarity on different socioeconomic driving forces. Spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation of the impact of socioeconomic drivers indicate that the ecological restoration projects positively affected the region’s greening trend with hotspots in the center and west, and also improved farmer well-being. Notably, urban population showed undesired effects, expressed in accelerating grassland degradation in central and western regions for 1990–2000, hindering forestland and grassland restoration in the south during 2000–2015, and highlighting the long-term sustainability of the vegetation restoration progress. Such local results have the potential to provide a methodological contribution (e.g., nesting local-level approaches, i.e., GWR, within land system research) and spatially explicit evidence for context-related and proactive land management (e.g., balancing urbanization and ecological restoration processes and advancing agricultural development and rural welfare improvement).

The critical role of abiotic factors and human activities in the supply of ecosystem services in the ES matrix

In Western Europe, ecosystems have been shaped to maximise the supply of one specific biomass provisioning ecosystem service (ES), such as food or timber, with detrimental impacts on other ES. The ES approach has therefore been established to better understand the multiple interactions between human society and ecosystems. A variety of methods have been developed to assess ES and their relationships, for instance the ES matrix model based on land cover classes. This popular, flexible and simple method allows combining different data sources and easily comparing ES. However, in general, this method poorly takes into account landscape heterogeneity while abiotic factors and human activities seem to play an important role in ES supply. The objective of this paper is twofold: (1) to extent the methodology based on the ES matrix model by including abiotic factors and human activities and (2) to test the impacts of these two types of factors on ES supply and their relationships.

The assessment focused on the capacity of the forest to supply six ES depending on six types of soil ranging from productive soils to more constraining or less productive soils (i.e. abiotic factors) and two contrasting forest management strategies (i.e. human activities). This amended ES matrix was applied on one hand, to map the supply of ES and their relationships in four municipalities in the Ardenne ecoregion (Southern Belgium) and on the other hand, to investigate the impacts of three scenarios (i.e. three different management strategies) on ES supply and their relationships.

The amended ES matrix shows large differences in ES supply between the two forest management strategies on the more constraining and less productive soils, creating differences in the spatial pattern of ES. The changes in ES supply amongst the three scenarios and the current supply were quantified to identify the best management options.

In conclusion, one particular forest is not like another in terms of ES supply and their relationships. To capture this heterogeneity, we propose an amended ES matrix including abiotic factors and human activities. The maps, based on this matrix, allow identifying the hotspots (i.e. high capacity to supply different ES) and coldspots (i.e. low capacity to supply different ES or strong trade-offs between provisioning ES and regulating/cultural ES). Forest management should be adapted to the abiotic conditions, in particular in the coldspots, to ensure a more balanced supply of ES.

When multi-functional landscape meets Critical Zone science: advancing multi-disciplinary research for sustainable human well-being

Environmental degradation has become one of the major obstacles to sustainable development and human well-being internationally. Scientific efforts are being made to understand the mechanism of environmental degradation and sustainability. Critical Zone (CZ) science and research on the multi-functional landscape are emerging fields in Earth science that can contribute to such scientific efforts. This paper reviews the progress, similarities and current status of these two scientific research fields, and identifies a number of opportunities for their synergistic integration through functional and multi-functional approaches, process-based monitoring, mechanistic analyses and dynamic modeling, global long-term and networked monitoring and systematic modeling supported by scaling and deep coupling. These approaches proposed in this paper have the potential to support sustainable human well-being by strengthening a functional orientation that consolidates multi-functional landscape research and CZ science. This is a key challenge for sustainable development and human well-being in the twenty-first century.

Surplus or Deficit? Spatiotemporal Variations of the Supply, Demand, and Budget of Landscape Services and Landscape Multifunctionality in Suburban Shanghai, China

Landscape services are inevitably interlinked with human wellbeing. It is essential to assess landscape services and multifunctionality from both supply and demand points of view toward sustainable landscape management. This study focused on the spatiotemporal variations of the supply, demand, and budget of landscape services in suburban Shanghai, China, including crop production, nutrient regulation, air-quality regulation, soil-erosion regulation, water purification, and recreation and aesthetical value. A new index landscape multifunctionality budget (BMFI) was developed, integrating the budget status of surplus and deficit with landscape management. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and regression analysis were conducted to identify spatial agglomeration and influencing factors of BMFI. Pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity of landscape services was observed. BMFI was in surplus status in 2005 and 2010, but turned to deficit in 2015. Landscape service budgets generally followed the spatial pattern of positive in the west and negative in the east. Budget deficits covered half of the villages in 2015, which were mainly situated near central Shanghai with high population density, high average income, and a fragmented and less diverse landscape pattern. Rapid urban sprawl and the following land-cover changes are the main drivers for the spatiotemporal variations. Landscape function zoning with effective economic development and ecological conservation policies can comprehensively improve the competitiveness achieving sustainable future.

Assessment of the Spatial Dynamics and Interactions among Multiple Ecosystem Services to Promote Effective Policy Making across Mediterranean Island Landscapes

To manage multiple ecosystem services (ES) effectively, it is essential to understand how the dynamics of ES maintain healthy ecosystems to avoid potential negative impacts on human well-being in the context of sustainable development. In particular, the Ionian Islands in the central Mediterranean are characterized by high natural, ecological, and recreational value; however, the intensification of human activities over time has resulted in the loss of natural ecosystems, which might have negatively impacted ES. Here, we aimed to assess and understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of ES supply and how these components interact across the Ionian Islands to optimize future ES provision and mitigate current trade-offs. We quantified multiple ecosystem services and analyzed their interactions at a temporal scale across the four prefectures of the Ionian Islands. Seven ES were quantified covering all three ES sections (provisioning, regulating and maintenance, and cultural) of the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES). ES interactions were investigated by analyzing ES relationships, identifying ES bundles (sets of ES that repeatedly occur together across space and time), and specifying ES occurrence within bundles. The three ES groups exhibited similar patterns on some islands, but differed on islands with areas of high recreation in parallel to low provisioning and regulating ES. Temporal variations showed both stability and changes to the supply of ES, as well as in the interactions among them. Different patterns among the islands were caused by the degree of mixing between natural vegetation and olive orchards. This study identified seven ES bundles that had distinct compositions and magnitudes, with both unique and common bundles being found among the islands. The olive grove bundle delivered the most ES, while the non-vegetated bundle delivered negligible amounts of ES. Spatial and temporal variation in ES appear to be determined by agriculture, land abandonment, and increasing tourism, as well as the occurrence of fires. Knowledge about the spatial dynamics and interactions among ES could provide information for stakeholders and decision-making processes to develop appropriate sustainable management of the ecosystems on the Ionian Islands to secure ecological, social, and economic resilience.

Spatial Planning as a Tool for Effective Nature Conservation: A Conceptual Framework for Turkey’s Spatial Planning System

Protected areas can be parts of larger ecosystems, and land use changes in the unprotected part of the ecosystems may threaten the biological diversity by affecting the ecological processes. The relationship between protected areas and their surroundings has been influential in understanding the role of spatial planning in nature conservation. This article focuses on the problem that Turkey’s protected areas are vulnerable to pressure and threats caused by land use changes. Spatial planning serving as a bridge between nature conservation and land use is the solution for effective nature conservation in Turkey. Thereby, the aim of this article is to develop a conceptual framework which offers spatial planning as an effective tool to bridge the gap between land use change and nature conservation. In this context, first literature review is conducted, and systematic conservation planning, evidence-based conservation planning, bioregional planning and national system planning are presented as effective planning methods in nature conservation. In addition to literature review, official national statistics and Convention on Biological Diversity’s country reports are utilized to shed light on Turkey’s current state. Finally, a conceptual framework is defined, the main differences with the current situation are revealed. The results indicate that an effective planning system for Turkey’s protected areas incorporates a holistic, target-oriented system defining the spatial planning process for protected areas. The spatial planning system to be developed in this context is also used by decision-makers in evaluating the ecological effectiveness of existing plans.

Dynamics of Ecosystem Services during Forest Transitions in Reventazón, Costa Rica

The forest transition framework describes the temporal changes of forest areas with economic development. A first phase of forest contraction is followed by a second phase of expansion once a turning point is reached. This framework does not differentiate forest types or ecosystem services, and describes forests regardless of their contribution to human well-being. For several decades, deforestation in many tropical regions has degraded ecosystem services, such as watershed regulation, while increasing provisioning services from agriculture, for example, food. Forest transitions and expansion have been observed in some countries, but their consequences for ecosystem services are often unclear. We analyzed the implications of forest cover change on ecosystem services in Costa Rica, where a forest transition has been suggested. A review of literature and secondary data on forest and ecosystem services in Costa Rica indicated that forest transition might have led to an ecosystem services transition. We modeled and mapped the changes of selected ecosystem services in the upper part of the Reventazón watershed and analyzed how supply changed over time in order to identify possible transitions in ecosystem services. The modeled changes of ecosystem services is similar to the second phase of a forest transition but no turning point was identified, probably because of the limited temporal scope of the analysis. Trends of provisioning and regulating services and their tradeoffs were opposite in different spatial subunits of our study area, which highlights the importance of scale in the analysis of ecosystem services and forest transitions. The ecosystem services transition framework proposed in this study is useful for analyzing the temporal changes of ecosystem services and linking socio-economic drivers to ecosystem services demand at different scales.

Assessment of Life Cycle Impacts on Ecosystem Services: Promise, Problems, and Prospects

The analysis of ecosystem services (ES) is becoming a key-factor to implement policies on sustainable technologies. Accordingly, life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) methods are more and more oriented toward the development of harmonized characterization models to address impacts on ES. However, such efforts are relatively recent and have not reached full consensus yet. We investigate here on the transdisciplinary pillars related to the modeling of LCIA on ES by conducting a critical review and comparison of the state-of-the-art in both LCIA and ES domains. We observe that current LCIA practices to assess impacts on "ES provision" suffer from incompleteness in modeling the cause-effect chains; the multifunctionality of ecosystems is omitted; and the "flow" nature of ES is not considered. Furthermore, ES modeling in LCIA is limited by its static calculation framework, and the valuation of ES also experiences some limitations. The conceptualization of land use (changes) as the main impact driver on ES, and the corresponding approaches to retrieve characterization factors, eventually embody several methodological shortcomings, such as the lack of time-dependency and interrelationships between elements in the cause-effect chains. We conclude that future LCIA modeling of ES could benefit from the harmonization with existing integrated multiscale dynamic integrated approaches.

Ecosystem services from a degraded peatland of Central Kalimantan: implications for policy, planning, and management

Increasingly, landscapes are managed for multiple objectives to balance social, economic, and environmental goals. The Ex-Mega Rice Project (EMRP) peatland in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia provides a timely example with globally significant development, carbon, and biodiversity concerns. To inform future policy, planning, and management in the EMRP, we quantified and mapped ecosystem service values, assessed their spatial interactions, and evaluated the potential provision of ecosystem services under future land-use scenarios. We focus on key policy-relevant regulating (carbon stocks and the potential for emissions reduction), provisioning (timber, crops from smallholder agriculture, palm oil), and supporting (biodiversity) services. We found that implementation of existing land-use plans has the potential to improve total ecosystem service provision. We identify a number of significant inefficiencies, trade-offs, and unintended outcomes that may arise. For example, the potential development of existing palm oil concessions over one-third of the region may shift smallholder agriculture into low-productivity regions and substantially impact carbon and biodiversity outcomes. While improved management of conservation zones may enhance the protection of carbon stocks, not all biodiversity features will be represented, and there will be a reduction in timber harvesting and agricultural production. This study highlights how ecosystem service analyses can be structured to better inform policy, planning, and management in globally significant but data-poor regions.

Prospective and participatory integrated assessment of agricultural systems from farm to regional scales: Comparison of three modeling approaches

Evaluating the impacts of the development of alternative agricultural systems, such as organic or low-input cropping systems, in the context of an agricultural region requires the use of specific tools and methodologies. They should allow a prospective (using scenarios), multi-scale (taking into account the field, farm and regional level), integrated (notably multicriteria) and participatory assessment, abbreviated PIAAS (for Participatory Integrated Assessment of Agricultural System). In this paper, we compare the possible contribution to PIAAS of three modeling approaches i.e. Bio-Economic Modeling (BEM), Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and statistical Land-Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) models. After a presentation of each approach, we analyze their advantages and drawbacks, and identify their possible complementarities for PIAAS. Statistical LUCC modeling is a suitable approach for multi-scale analysis of past changes and can be used to start discussion about the futures with stakeholders. BEM and ABM approaches have complementary features for scenarios assessment at different scales. While ABM has been widely used for participatory assessment, BEM has been rarely used satisfactorily in a participatory manner. On the basis of these results, we propose to combine these three approaches in a framework targeted to PIAAS.