4
|
Solo-Gabriele HM, Fiddaman T, Mauritzen C, Ainsworth C, Abramson DM, Berenshtein I, Chassignet EP, Chen SS, Conmy RN, Court CD, Dewar WK, Farrington JW, Feldman MG, Ferguson AC, Fetherston-Resch E, French-McCay D, Hale C, He R, Kourafalou VH, Lee K, Liu Y, Masi M, Maung-Douglass ES, Morey SL, Murawski SA, Paris CB, Perlin N, Pulster EL, Quigg A, Reed DJ, Ruzicka JJ, Sandifer PA, Shepherd JG, Singer BH, Stukel MR, Sutton TT, Weisberg RH, Wiesenburg D, Wilson CA, Wilson M, Wowk KM, Yanoff C, Yoskowitz D. Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills. MARINE POLICY 2021; 131:1-18. [PMID: 37850151 PMCID: PMC10581399 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2023]
Abstract
Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach. This synthesis resulted in a causal loop diagram from which the interconnectivity of the system could be visualized. Results of this analysis indicate that the system naturally separates into two tiers, ocean environment and biological ecosystems versus socioeconomics and human health. As a result, ocean environment and ecosystem models could be used to provide input to explore human health and socioeconomic variables in hypothetical scenarios. At decadal-plus time scales, the analysis emphasized that human domains influence the natural domains through changes in oil-spill related laws and regulations. Although data gaps were identified in all four model domains, the socioeconomics and human health domains are the least established. Considerable future work is needed to address research gaps and to create fully coupled quantitative integrative assessment models that can be used in strategic decision-making that will optimize recoveries from future large oil spills.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Helena M. Solo-Gabriele
- Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA
| | | | - Cecilie Mauritzen
- Department of Climate, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
| | - Cameron Ainsworth
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - David M. Abramson
- School of Global Public Health, New York University, New York, NY 10003, USA
| | - Igal Berenshtein
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
- Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
| | - Eric P. Chassignet
- Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
| | - Shuyi S. Chen
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Robyn N. Conmy
- Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, OH 45268, USA
| | - Christa D. Court
- Food and Resource Economics Department, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - William K. Dewar
- Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l’Environnement, French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Grenoble, France 38000, and Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
| | | | - Michael G. Feldman
- Consortium for Ocean Leadership, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative, Washington, DC 20005, USA
| | - Alesia C. Ferguson
- Built Environment Department, College of Science and Technology, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, Greensboro, NC 27411, USA
| | | | | | - Christine Hale
- Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA
| | - Ruoying He
- Dept. of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA
| | - Vassiliki H. Kourafalou
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
| | - Kenneth Lee
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Ecosystem Science, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0E6, Canada
| | - Yonggang Liu
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - Michelle Masi
- Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Galveston, TX 77551, USA
| | | | - Steven L. Morey
- School of the Environment, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University, Tallahassee, FL 32307, USA
| | - Steven A. Murawski
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - Claire B. Paris
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
| | - Natalie Perlin
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
| | - Erin L. Pulster
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - Antonietta Quigg
- Department of Marine Biology, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77553, USA
| | - Denise J. Reed
- Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of New Orleans, 2000 Lakeshore Drive, New Orleans, LA 70148, USA
| | - James J. Ruzicka
- Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Oregon State University, Newport, OR 97365, USA
| | - Paul A. Sandifer
- Center for Coastal Environmental and Human Health, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC 29424, USA
| | - John G. Shepherd
- School of Ocean & Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK
| | - Burton H. Singer
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA
| | - Michael R. Stukel
- Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
| | - Tracey T. Sutton
- Guy Harvey Oceanographic Center, Halmos College of Arts and Sciences, Nova Southeastern University, Dania Beach, FL 33004, USA
| | - Robert H. Weisberg
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - Denis Wiesenburg
- School of Ocean Science and Engineering, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS 39406, USA
| | | | - Monica Wilson
- Florida Sea Grant, University of Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
| | - Kateryna M. Wowk
- Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA
| | - Callan Yanoff
- Consortium for Ocean Leadership, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative, Washington, DC 20005, USA
| | - David Yoskowitz
- Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA
| |
Collapse
|