The importance of socio-ecological system dynamics in understanding adaptation to global change in the forestry sector

From soil to health hazards: Heavy metals contamination in northern India and health risk assessment

Heavy metals contamination in soil is a global concern affecting the environment with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems and the health of human beings. Heavy metals contamination of soil entails a significant threat to the environment and human health. This research paper focuses on the quantification of heavy metals contamination in soil in Kanpur district, a highly industrialized and densely populated region in India. The study was aimed to identify the sources of heavy metals, map their spatial distribution, and evaluate the potential implications on the environment and human well-being. The prime intent of the current study was quantification of heavy metals in the soil as well as the comparison of risk on the health of human being using two different methods i.e., US EPA methodology for risk assessment and epidemiological study-based risk assessment. Heavy metals like Fe, Ni, Co, Cu, Mn, Cr, and Cd were analyzed in agricultural samples of soil with the help of inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy. On the basis of epidemiological data, the attributable and relative risk came out to be 0.001 and 1.060, respectively. On the basis of the calculation of Cr alone, the values of carcinogenic risk for adults came out to be 3.87 × 10-7 and for children it was 3.01 × 10- 6. In conclusion, this research paper highlights the alarming levels of heavy metals contamination in the soil of Kanpur district, emphasizing the urgent need for remediation and mitigation efforts, thereby guiding policy makers and stakeholders in developing targeted strategies for soil protection and safeguarding human health.

Transitional forestry in New Zealand: re-evaluating the design and management of forest systems through the lens of forest purpose

Forestry management worldwide has become increasingly effective at obtaining high timber yields from productive forests. In New Zealand, a focus on improving an increasingly successful and largely Pinus radiata plantation forestry model over the last 150 years has resulted in some of the most productive timber forests in the temperate zone. In contrast to this success, the full range of forested landscapes across New Zealand, including native forests, are impacted by an array of pressures from introduced pests, diseases, and a changing climate, presenting a collective risk of losses in biological, social and economic value. As the national government policies incentivise reforestation and afforestation, the social acceptability of some forms of newly planted forests is also being challenged. Here, we review relevant literature in the area of integrated forest landscape management to optimise forests as nature-based solutions, presenting 'transitional forestry' as a model design and management paradigm appropriate to a range of forest types, where forest purpose is placed at the heart of decision making. We use New Zealand as a case study region, describing how this purpose-led transitional forestry model can benefit a cross section of forest types, from industrialised forest plantations to dedicated conservation forests and a range of multiple-purpose forests in between. Transitional forestry is an ongoing multi-decade process of change from current 'business-as-usual' forest management to future systems of forest management, embedded across a continuum of forest types. This holistic framework incorporates elements to enhance efficiencies of timber production, improve overall forest landscape resilience, and reduce some potential negative environmental impacts of commercial plantation forestry, while allowing the ecosystem functioning of commercial and non-commercial forests to be maximised, with increased public and biodiversity conservation value. Implementation of transitional forestry addresses tensions that arise between meeting climate mitigation targets and improving biodiversity criteria through afforestation, alongside increasing demand for forest biomass feedstocks to meet the demands of near-term bioenergy and bioeconomy goals. As ambitious government international targets are set for reforestation and afforestation using both native and exotic species, there is an increasing opportunity to make such transitions via integrated thinking that optimises forest values across a continuum of forest types, while embracing the diversity of ways in which such targets can be reached.

Windstorm Impacts on Forest-Related Socio-Ecological Systems: An Analysis from a Socio-Economic and Institutional Perspective

Windstorms are considered among the most impacting natural events for European forests and related Socio-Ecological Systems (SES). Given that their intensity and frequency are increasing, an in-depth understanding of their impacts is crucial to mitigate risks and potential negative effects. However, so far, scientific research on windstorm impacts has mainly focused on environmental dimensions, while socio-economic and institutional ones are rarely taken into consideration. Our analysis aims at enriching the current scientific knowledge on windstorm impacts on forest SES by providing an overview of the state-of-the-art academic investigations on windstorm impacts on socio-economic and institutional dimensions. Overall, 46 papers were reviewed to identify the most recurrent post-windstorm dynamics and drivers that influence resilience and adaptation of socio-economic, institutional and related governance dimensions of European forest SES. Results show that the current scientific knowledge on socio-economic impacts of windstorms mainly concentrates on forest-related stakeholders and sectors, paying little attention to the broader social, cultural and institutional drivers that contribute to forest SES resilience. Further, cascade effects linking environmental, social and institutional dimensions are poorly analyzed. This restricted focus could lead to an incomplete understanding of the dynamics shaping socio-economic adaptability to windstorms, affecting long-term and sustainable recovery from extreme natural events. To correctly frame effective, intersectoral and coordinated recovery strategies gaining a deeper understanding of human–environment interactions is needed, as well as acknowledging the positive influence of causal relationships in improving forest-related SES resilience.

Improving the Representation of Climate Change Adaptation Behaviour in New Zealand’s Forest Growing Sector

To provide the forest industry with a better understanding of alternatives to simulate future adaptation pathways under evolving climatic and socio-economic uncertainty, we review the literature on how adaptation decisions are modelled in the context of plantation forests. This review leads to the conclusion that the representation of adaptation behaviour and decision-making remain very limited in most of the agent-based models in the forestry sector. Moreover, theoretical frameworks used to understand the adaptation behaviour of forest owners are also lacking. In this paper, we propose the application of protection motivation theory (PMT) as a framework to understand the motivation of forest owners to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on their forest plantations. Furthermore, the use of PMT allows factors affecting the maladaptive behaviour of forest owners to be examined. A survey of New Zealand foresters showed that less than 10% of smallholder forest owners adopted adaptation strategies. This result highlights the importance of addressing the research question “what motivates forest owners to take risk reduction measures?” Exploring this question is crucial to the future success of the New Zealand forestry sector and we suggest that it can be addressed by using PMT. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for an agent-based model as an alternative to simulating adaptation pathways for forest plantations in New Zealand.

Enhancing the application of organic fertilisers by members of agricultural cooperatives

Scientific literature has reported that participation in agricultural cooperatives has positive effects on small farmers' preference for organic fertilisers over chemical fertilisers. However, there is limited focus on enhancing the voluntary use of organic fertilisers by small farmers who have joined an agricultural cooperative. This paper describes an agent-based model for simulating small farmers' decision-making with regard to fertiliser selection. Ninety six farmers (members) of one of the largest strawberry production cooperatives in China were assessed to understand their willingness to use different fertilisers and their socioeconomic characteristics. Simulation results showed that for farmers belonging to the agricultural cooperative who earn higher marginal profits, variations in the prices of the agricultural produce had no significant effect on their behaviour in terms of the use of organic fertilisers. The number of farmers using organic fertilisers at the beginning of the first year has a positive relationship with the increase in the rate at which farmers use organic fertilisers. However, the count does not alter the final number of farmers who use organic fertilisers after several years. Moreover, farmers' willingness to use organic fertilisers enhances the increasing speed and final number of farmers using organic fertilisers simultaneously. The design of strategies (increasing the number of farmers using organic fertilisers at the beginning of the first year and enhancing farmers' willingness to use organic fertilisers) has a significant effect on the promotion of organic fertiliser application by agricultural cooperatives in China.

Vulnerability Comparison between Karst and Non-Karst Nature Reserves—With a Special Reference to Guizhou Province, China

Studying vulnerability has become one of the hot issues of ecological research under global change and sustainable development scenarios. However, there are few studies focusing on the vulnerability of karst areas, especially on the comparison between karst and non-karst areas. This study integrated climate factors, soil and vegetation factors, and social factors within a vulnerability evaluation framework that combined the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique to evaluate and compare the ecological environments of 10 karst nature reserves and five non-karst nature reserves in Guizhou Province, China. The evaluation results were divided into five categories: potential, light, moderate, severe, and extremely severe vulnerability. The results indicated that the general vulnerability of national nature reserves in Guizhou Province showed moderate vulnerability. The vulnerability index of karst nature reserves was significantly higher than that of non-karst nature reserves. The general vulnerability of karst nature reserves showed moderate vulnerability, while that of non-karst nature reserves showed light vulnerability. Average soil thickness, arable area, and the length of roads may be the factors contributing to the significant difference in the vulnerability between karst and non-karst nature reserves. Overall, this study is conducive to a comprehensive understanding of the ecological environment status of national nature reserves in Guizhou Province, and is of great significance to maintaining ecological security and sustainable development in karst areas.

Dynamic Feedback Analysis of Influencing Factors of Existing Building Energy-Saving Renovation Market Based on System Dynamics in China

Existing buildings energy-saving renovation is an important means to cope with global warming and an essential component of achieving China’s energy conservation and pollution emissions reduction strategy goals. The development of the energy-saving renovation market is closely related to its influencing factors, which determine the reasons and conditions for the development of the system; therefore, it is necessary to study the influencing factors of energy-saving transformations. System dynamics was applied to explore the feedback relationship between the service subsystem, the demand market subsystem, and the market regulation subsystem. Analysis was performed for the intrinsic influencing factors of the development of the existing building energy-saving renovation market and the interaction law of feedback relationship. This paper discusses the basic characteristics of government incentives, Energy Service Company (ESCO) technology innovation, ESCO’s revenue, and owner’s awareness to promote the development of the existing building energy-saving renovation market. Base on those, it puts forward suggestions for promoting the market development of existing buildings energy-saving reconstruction. The findings provided a theoretical basis and guiding role for the Chinese government to formulate support policies for existing building energy-saving renovation. At the same time, it also provides reference for other countries to develop existing buildings energy-saving renovation market.

Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models

Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.