Driving propensity and vehicle lifetime mileage: A quantile regression approach

Reduction of life-cycle CO2 emissions by expanding car-sharing services: A case study on Japan

Carbon neutrality is a growing concern for all global economies. We considered the number of new and used cars registered during 2009-2018 in Japan and estimated the total number of private and shared cars, assuming that when owners abandoned their old cars, a certain percentage of the owners chose to use a car-sharing service (i.e., car rental service), instead of buying a new private car. We estimated the CO2 emissions generated during the manufacturing, driving, and disposal stages of cars, to analyze the impact of car sharing on CO2 emissions. Then, we determined the changes in the life-cycle CO2 emissions of all the cars for three car-sharing penetration rates (0, 5, and 100%), assuming that all the cars were gasoline-powered. Additionally, we analyzed how electric vehicles can optimize the proposed strategy. An increase in car-sharing services significantly reduced vehicular CO2 emissions; the decrease in CO2 emissions from private cars when owners switched to car services significantly exceeded the increase in the CO2 emissions associated with the increased number of cars. The proposed model can serve as a reliable framework to analyze the current status of CO2 emissions and simulate the future changes in car-sharing services.

Impacts of shared mobility on vehicle lifetimes and on the carbon footprint of electric vehicles

Shared cars will likely have larger annual vehicle driving distances than individually owned cars. This may accelerate passenger car retirement. Here we develop a semi-empirical lifetime-driving intensity model using statistics on Swedish vehicle retirement. This semi-empirical model is integrated with a carbon footprint model, which considers future decarbonization pathways. In this work, we show that the carbon footprint depends on the cumulative driving distance, which depends on both driving intensity and calendar aging. Higher driving intensities generally result in lower carbon footprints due to increased cumulative driving distance over the vehicle’s lifetime. Shared cars could decrease the carbon footprint by about 41% in 2050, if one shared vehicle replaces ten individually owned vehicles. However, potential empty travel by autonomous shared vehicles—the additional distance traveled to pick up passengers—may cause carbon footprints to increase. Hence, vehicle durability and empty travel should be considered when designing low-carbon car sharing systems.

Shared cars are driven more, which could shorten their lifetimes. This could influence carbon dioxide emissions in car manufacturing. Sharing nonetheless reduces carbon footprints. Designing cars for durability can further enhance the benefits