Simulation and optimization of land use pattern to embed ecological suitability in an oasis region: A case study of Ganzhou district, Gansu province, China

Land-use simulation for synergistic pollution and carbon reduction: Scenario analysis and policy implications

Simulations of sustainable land use and management are required to achieve targets to reduce pollution and carbon emissions. Limited research has been conducted on synergistic pollution and carbon reduction (SPCR) in land-use simulations. This study proposed a framework for land-use simulation focused on SPCR. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ) and the entropy weight-based technique for order of preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) were used to optimize the land-use structure according to minimum net carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus emissions. The cellular automata (CA) Markov model was then utilized to simulate the land-use spatial pattern according to the optimal conditions. The proposed framework was applied to the Dongjiang River Basin, South China, and three other scenarios (natural development (ND), carbon minimization (CM), and pollution minimization (PM)) were designed to validate the effectiveness of pollution and carbon emissions reduction under the SPCR scenario. The land-use structure and the pollution and carbon emissions in the scenarios were compared. The results showed the following. (1) The proportions of cultivated land, woodland, grassland, water, and construction land In the SPCR scenario accounted for 14%, 72%, 4%, 3%, and 7% of the total area, respectively. The carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus emissions were 42.4%, 6.6%, and 7.8% lower, respectively, in the SPCR scenario than in the ND scenario, demonstrating the advantages of simultaneous pollution and carbon reduction. (2) The kappa coefficient of the CA-Markov model was 0.8729, indicating high simulation accuracy. (3) The simulated land-use spatial patterns exhibited low spatial heterogeneity under the CM, PM, and SPCR scenarios. However, there were significant disparities between the ND and SPCR scenarios. The cultivated and construction land areas were significantly smaller in the SPCR scenario than in the ND scenario. In contrast, the woodland and grassland areas were larger, with most differences in the central and southwestern regions of the Dongjiang River Basin. The results of the current study can be used to formulate effective land use policies and strategies in the Dongjiang Basin and similar areas to achieve the Coupling coordination between pollution reduction and carbon reduction. Policy recommendations include increasing the proportion of woodland and grassland, implementing reasonable constraints on expanding cultivated and construction lands, and establishing farmland red lines to promote synergistic pollution and carbon reduction.

Identifying and warning against spatial conflicts of land use from an ecological environment perspective: A case study of the Ili River Valley, China

Spatial conflicts of land use (SCLU) arise during land-use change, which causes an imbalance of land-use spatial patterns and negatively affects society, the economy, and ecology. Previous research has focused on identifying and measuring SCLU, with less attention on the negative effects. The incorporation of risk assessment methods to evaluate potential conflict risks has been limited. The current study presents methods for measuring SCLU and assessing potential conflict risks from the ecological environment perspective. The spatial comprehensive conflicts index and potential conflict risk index were used to identify and measure the SCLU and to assess and warn against potential conflict risks, respectively, based on a case study in the Ili River Valley in China. The impacts of terrain restriction and land-use change on the SCLU were explored. Results indicate that (1) the SCLU area in the Ili River Valley decreased by 2,608 km2 from 2010 to 2020, compared to the previous decade, the degree of conflict weakened, and the main body of the SCLU gradually shifted northwest. (2) The potential risk areas cover 20,268 km2 in 2020-2030 and are mainly distributed in the "Khorgas City-Huocheng County-Yining City-Yining County" group of towns, as well as along the Ili-Kunes rivers and in the ecological protection zone in the south of the Ili River Valley, which shows the clustering along the city and distribution along the river in the spatial pattern. (3) Topography had a significant impact on the SCLU, and the main types of land-use change in the severe-conflict zone were the reduction of grassland and the expansion of arable and built-up land. For future conflict mitigation in the Ili River Valley, cautioning against urban sprawl and safeguarding land ecological security is critical. This study systematically investigates and analyzes SCLU across three dimensions: theory, methodology, and application to produce a theoretical and practical framework to identify SCLU and assess potential conflict risks.

Connotation, status, and governance of land ecological security in China's new urbanization: recent advances and future prospects

The rapid development of China's new urbanization has created favorable conditions for economic growth and social development. Urbanization includes population urbanization and land urbanization, among which land urbanization leads to land ecological security problems. At present, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of land ecological security in China's new urbanization construction. This paper aims to fill the gap by systematically combing relevant literature on the connotation, status, and governance of land ecological security in China's new urbanization. Literature review shows that China's land ecological security is still at a low level, and the new urbanization construction has significant impacts on land ecological security. Land contamination is the most critical factor threatening land ecological security, and there are differences in the levels of land contamination and types of pollutants in different new urbanization construction forms. According to an example of land ecological security governance with enterprises as the main body and multiple subjects cooperating, the governance of land ecological security needs to integrate a variety of different subjects to coordinate governance. Future research directions should focus on the construction of land ecological security assessment index system, development of land contamination multi-level control technology, and construction of multi-subject collaborative governance model with "government-enterprise-social organization-residents."

The response of ecological security to land use change in east and west subtropical China

Regional land use change and ecological security have received considerable attention in recent years. The rapid economic development of Kunming and Fuzhou has resulted in environmental damage such as water pollution and urban heat island effect. It is thus important to conduct a comparative analysis of the ecological security response to land use/land cover change (LUCC) in different natural zones. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, random forest and support vector machine methods were used to classify land cover types in the study area, after which the ArcGIS platform was used to analyze LUCC. The driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model and entropy weight method were used to construct an ecological security evaluation system, and gray correlation was used to compare the ecological security responses to LUCC in Kunming and Fuzhou. The findings revealed that: (1) The average dynamic degrees of comprehensive land use in Kunming and Fuzhou from 1995 to 2020 were 1.05% and 0.55%, respectively; (2) From 1995 to 2020, the ecological security index values for Kunming and Fuzhou increased from 0.42 to 0.52 and from 0.36 to 0.68, respectively, indicating that Fuzhou's index is rising more rapidly; and (3)There is a strong correlation between LUCC and ecological security, the correlation between the woodland and the ecological security index is very strong in both places. The expansion of construction land may be an important reason for the reduced ecological security level in Fuzhou City, while water resources have a significant impact on the ecological security level of Kunming City.

Simulation of Land Use Pattern Based on Land Ecological Security: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China

The process of rapid urbanization has intensified the conversion of different land use types, resulting in a substantial loss of ecological land and ecological security being threatened. In the context of China’s vigorous advocacy of an ecological civilization, it is important to explore future land use patterns under ecological security constraints to promote sustainable development. The insufficient consideration of land ecological security in existing land use pattern simulation studies makes it difficult to effectively promote improvement in the ecological security level. Therefore, we developed a land use simulation framework that integrates land ecological security. Taking the sustainable development of land ecosystems as the core, the land ecological security index (LESI) and ecological zoning (EZ) were determined by the pressure–state–response (PSR) model and the catastrophe progression method (CPM). Natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios were then constructed taking the LESI and EZ into consideration. The CA–Markov model was used to simulate the land use pattern of Guangzhou for 2030 under the two scenarios. The results showed that (1) the study area was divided into four categories: ecological core zone, ecological buffer zone, ecological optimization zone, and urban development zone, with area shares of 37.53%, 31.14%, 16.96%, and 14.37%, respectively. (2) In both scenarios, the construction land around the towns showed outward expansion; compared with the ND scenario, the construction land in the EP scenario decreased by 369.10 km2, and the woodland, grassland, and farmland areas increased by 337.04, 20.80, and 10.51 km2, respectively, which significantly improved the ecological security level. (3) In the EP scenario, the construction land in the ecological core zone, ecological buffer zone, and ecological optimization zone decreased by 85.49, 114.78, and 178.81 km2, respectively, and no new construction land was added in the ecological core zone, making the land use pattern of the EP scenario more reasonable. The results of the study have confirmed that the land use pattern simulation framework integrating land ecological security can effectively predict land use patterns in different future scenarios. This study can provide suggestions and guidance for managers to use in formulating ecological protection policies and preparing territorial spatial planning.

Impacts of Land-Use Change on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Gansu Province, Northwest China

Land-use change is supposed to exert significant effects on the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem carbon storage in arid regions, while the relative size of land-use change effect under future environmental change conditions is still less quantified. In this study, we combined a land-use change dataset with a satellite-based high-resolution biomass and soil organic carbon dataset to determine the role of land-use change in affecting ecosystem carbon storage from 1980 to 2050 in the Gansu province of China, using the MCE-CA-Markov and InVEST models. In addition, to quantify the relative size of the land-use change effect in comparison with other environmental drivers, we also considered the effects of climate change, CO2 enrichment, and cropland and forest managements in the models. The results show that the ecosystem carbon storage in the Gansu province increased by 208.9 ± 99.85 Tg C from 1980 to 2020, 12.87% of which was caused by land-use change, and the rest was caused by climate change, CO2 enrichment, and ecosystem managements. The land-use change-induced carbon sequestration was mainly associated with the land-use category conversion from farmland to grassland as well as from saline land and desert to farmland, driven by the grain-for-green projects in the Loess Plateau and oasis cultivation in the Hexi Corridor. Furthermore, it was projected that ecosystem carbon storage in the Gansu province from 2020 to 2050 will change from −14.69 ± 12.28 Tg C to 57.83 ± 53.42 Tg C (from 105.62 ± 51.83 Tg C to 177.03 ± 94.1 Tg C) for the natural development (ecological protection) scenario. By contrast, the land-use change was supposed to individually increase the carbon storage by 56.46 ± 9.82 (165.84 ± 40.06 Tg C) under the natural development (ecological protection) scenario, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of ecological protection and restoration in enhancing ecosystem carbon storage for arid regions, especially under future climate change conditions.

Considering economic-environmental joint benefits of water-land resources allocation for supporting sustainable agricultural system development in northeastern China

Water and land are crucial natural resources for agricultural development. It is necessary to allocate water and land resources effectively in order to achieve the maximum economic profits and the minimum environmental costs. In this research, an inexact two-stage fractional programming model was developed for the allocation of water and land resources, which is integrated interval-parameters (IPP), two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), fractional programming (FP). This model could optimally allocate water and land resources at the same time under the scenario of the maximum economic profit and the minimum environmental cost; it was proved to be beneficial in (1) dealing with the conflicts between economic development and environmental protection and give insights in trade-off among the agricultural system; (2) allocating water and land resources for five crops under multiple flow level simultaneously; and (3) describing the uncertain inputs as interval-parameters to reduce model uncertainties. The developed model was applied to the northeast region of China. The optimal allocation schemes of water and land resources, the maximum economic profits, and the minimum environmental costs were obtained. The results showed that economic profits in the agricultural system in the northeast region of China would not definitely be connected with the allocation of water and land resources, and solid waste pollution would bear the largest environmental cost. The developed model could help decision-makers to get a deeper understanding of the agricultural system and manage water and land resources in an efficient and environment-friendly way.

Resource and Environmental Pressures on the Transformation of Planting Industry in Arid Oasis

Controlling environmental pollutant discharge and water resource demand is crucial for the sustainable development of agriculture and rural areas in arid oases. Taking Ganzhou, an arid oasis in Northwest China, as an example, we established an analysis framework for the relationship between the planting industry transformation and the resource and environmental pressures, from 2011 to 2020, through the methods of inventory, coefficient and quota accounting. The results showed that the planting scale of crops in oases has continuously expanded, with a structural dominance of corn seed production. Pollutant discharge showed a “Z”-type evolution trend, and the demand for water consumption continued to increase. The transformation of the planting industry and pollutant discharge showed coupled trade-offs and a synergetic alternating fluctuations coupling relationship, which was highly co-evolutionary with the demand for water resources. Crop planting exhibited four spatial patterns, namely the mixed planting area of grain and cash crops grown in mountain areas (GCPA), suburban scale vegetable planting (SVPA), planting of seed production corn (MSPA), and the compound planting area of grain crops, oil crops, vegetables, and other characteristic crops (CMPA). MSPA and SVPA had the highest total and average volume per unit area, respectively. The planting industry transformation and evolution of resource and environment pressures are closely related to changes in national strategies, regional agricultural policies, and environmental regulations. Therefore, studying their relationships provides a scientific basis for the formulation of suitable countermeasures, according to the development stage of a region.

Implications of land sparing and sharing for maintaining regional ecosystem services: An empirical study from a suitable area for agricultural production in China

The clarification of land use management in areas of potential land use conflict plays an important role in maintaining ecosystem services. However, the relationship between land use strategies and ecosystem services in potential conflict zones remains uncertain, lacking quantitative evidence. Therefore, to construct a healthy territorial space system, a spatial classification model for land use was built based on land sparing and sharing. In addition, the inherent characteristics of different modes in the landscape structure and functional heterogeneity were also resolved. Then, an empirical analysis was carried out with the coastal agricultural production area of Maoming City, Guangdong Province. Focusing on the potential area of land use conflicts in Maoming City, that is, the suitable area for agricultural production, this study determined the differences in ecosystem services under multiple land use patterns at the pixel level, explored the trade-offs of ecosystem services in the entire suitable area and a single model, and examined the gradient effect of ecosystem services with the intensity of cultivated land use. According to the results, ecosystem services significantly differed in land use patterns, and the comprehensive ecosystem service was the highest in the land sharing model. Ecosystem services exert a synergistic effect in the entire suitable area for agricultural production, whereas there exists no correlation within a single model. When the arable land area of intensive agriculture exceeds 84.84%, food supply and other ecosystem services will be reduced to varying degrees. The study bridges the gap in research on the relationship between land sparing and sharing and ecosystem services in Chinese regions, and proposes clear land remediation strategies in potential conflict zones, which can thus provide some guidance for achieving sustainable regional development.

Coupling Ecological Security Pattern Establishment and Construction Land Expansion Simulation for Urban Growth Boundary Delineation: Framework and Application

Reasonable delineation of the urban growth boundary (UGB) plays a vital role in guiding orderly urban space growth and ensuring urban environmental health. Existing methodologies for UGB delineation have failed to address the significance of ecological security. Therefore, this study presents a framework that couples ecological security pattern (ESP) establishment and construction land expansion (CLE) simulation to delineate the UGB. The proposed framework is applied to the Nanchang Metropolitan Area (NCMA) in southeastern China. First, we established the regional ESP of the NCMA in 2018 based on an improved minimum cumulative resistance model. The areas of low-, medium-, and high-level ESP were 1050.75, 736.42, and 720.59 km2, respectively. Second, we implemented a multi-scenario simulation of CLE in the NCMA in 2025 based on a cellular automata–Markov model. A natural development scenario was superior to urban growth and ecological protection scenarios for social, economic, and ecological development at the regional scale. Accordingly, we delineated the UGB of the NCMA in 2025 with a scale of 687.87 km2, based on dynamic adjustment using the results of ESP establishment and CLE simulation in the natural development scenario. The rationality and scientificity of the proposed framework were verified by comparing the scale and layout of the delineated UGB with the regional planning of Nanchang City. The framework incorporating dynamic adjustment with ESP establishment and multi-scenario CLE simulation provides a useful tool for the delineation of the UGB in similar urbanized cities. Its application is conducive to achieving a win–win outcome of regional ecological security and urban development.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecological Security Pattern of Urban Agglomerations in Yangtze River Delta Based on LUCC Simulation

Urbanization has not only promoted economic development, but also significantly changed land use and development strategy. The environmental problems brought by urbanization threaten ecological security directly. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce changes in land use when constructing an ecological security pattern. This study takes the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, one of the most economically developed regions in China, as the research area. Based on its land use status, the Cellular Automata–Markov model was used to predict the quantitative change and transfer of land-use types in 2025, and three types of land-use patterns were simulated under different scenarios. Combined with the pressure–state–response model, the Entropy TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation model is used to evaluate the three phases in the years of 2005, 2010, and 2015, and the results indicated that the safety level dropped from 85.45% to 82.94%. Five spatial associations were obtained from the spatial autocorrelation analysis using GeoDA, and the clustering distribution of the three phases was roughly the same. Based on the requirements of “Natural Growth” scenario, “Urban Sprawl” scenario, and “Ecological Protection” scenario, the transfer matrix of the various land-use types were modified rationally. The results of scenario simulations illustrated that the level of urbanization was inversely proportional to the level of ecological security. The surrounding cities in the northern part of Taihu Lake were developing rapidly, with low levels of ecological security. The hilly cities in the southern part, in contrast, developed slowly and had a high level of ecological security. Based on the temporal and spatial changes in the ecosystem, an ecosystem optimization model was proposed to determine the ecological functional areas. The nature of each functional area provided the basis to formulate urban construction and management plans and achieve sustainable urban development.

Simulating Urban Expansion Based on Ecological Security Pattern-A Case Study of Hangzhou, China

Disordered urban expansion has encroached on a large amount of ecological land, resulting in the steady degradation of urban ecology, which has an adverse effect on the sustainable development of the region. An ecological security pattern can effectively control urban expansion, and it is of great significance to balance urban development and ecological protection. In order to analyze the impact of ecological security patterns on urban expansion, Hangzhou was taken as an example, the CA-Markov model and FLUS model were used to simulate the urban expansion pattern in 2030 under the natural development scenario and the ecological security scenario. The results showed that (1) the ecological source area in the study area is 630.90 km² and was mainly distributed in the western mountainous area. There are 14 ecological corridors, primarily composed of valleys and rivers. Ecological nodes are mainly distributed on the north and south sides of the main urban area. (2) From 2000 to 2018, the annual increase index (AI) of construction land decreased in the northeast and southeast directions but increased in the northwest and southwest directions, and in the northeast direction the value was always the highest. Except for the southwest direction, the average annual growth rate (AGR) of construction land in the other directions decreased. At a distance from the city center of 30 km, AI was relatively higher and was increasing, while AGR was declining. At a distance of 30–45 km, both AI and AGR were increasing, indicating that the focus of construction land was moving outwards. (3) From 2018 to 2030, under both natural development scenario and ecological security scenario, construction land would keep expanding, but the construction land area, proportion, AI, and AGR of the latter would both be smaller than the former, indicating that the ecological security pattern can effectively curb urban expansion. Because of a large amount area of ecological sources, the expansion of construction land in the southwest direction would be constrained, especially under the ecological security scenario. The methods and results of this study can provide theoretical and application references for urban planning and green development in metropolises.