Multi-objective forest restoration planning in Costa Rica: Balancing landscape connectivity and ecosystem service provisioning with sustainable development

Modeling nature-based restoration potential across aquatic-terrestrial boundaries

Today, few watersheds remain untouched by global change processes arising from climate warming, impoundments, channelization, water extraction, pollution, and urbanization. The need for restoration has resulted in a myriad of interventions, generally performed at small scales, which have limited measurable impact in restoring biodiversity and ecosystem functions. We propose bringing nature-based restoration (also referred to as rewilding) principles to rivers and their watersheds to allow freshwater ecosystems to heal themselves and present a case study example for the Wolastoq, a transboundary watershed on North America's east coast. We aimed to identify key areas for the provision of the ecosystem function secondary productivity in the watershed and explored how the existing network of protected lands contributes to its conservation. We first developed species distribution models for 94 aquatic insects and 5 aerial insectivores and then considered human footprint and existing protected areas when employing spatial prioritization to meet 2 area-based targets (17% and 30% [i.e., Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 and Canada's 30×30, respectively]) for conservation or restoration of freshwater secondary production. Current conservation protection in the watershed was predicted to be insufficient to protect either ecosystem function providers or receivers of secondary production. By considering integrated conservation strategies, restoration and conservation actions can be better allocated throughout habitat patches to ensure sustained provision of ecosystem functions across the watershed. Nature-based restoration and conservation can help inform Canada's area-based targets, providing a framework for incorporating ecosystem functions into conservation planning and offering practical insights for policy and restoration efforts aimed at safeguarding biodiversity.

Quantifying the global stability and transition dynamics of a coupled human-environment system via a landscape-flux approach

Human and environmental systems should not be viewed in isolation from each other but as a complex integrated system since humans not only influence ecosystem services and functions but also respond to changes in the ecosystem. Additionally, stochastic perturbations play a crucial role in natural systems, and stochastic factors associated with social and ecological systems can significantly affect the dynamics of coupled models, such as noise-induced tipping. In this paper, we propose a coupled human-environment model with noisy disturbances that includes the dynamics of forest conservation opinions within a population and the natural expansion and harvesting of forest ecosystems. We investigate how stochasticity triggers critical transitions between high and low forest cover states (or a stable oscillatory state) using social and ecological fitting parameters from old-growth forests in Oregon. Based on landscape-flow theory from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, we quantify the global stability and robustness of equilibria and limit cycles using barrier height and average flux. We find that the stability of the high forest cover state weakens, and the low forest cover state becomes increasingly stable as noise intensity increases. Conversely, an increase in the intensity of injunctive social norms favors the global stability of the high forest cover state. Moreover, only a sufficiently small forest protection cost will allow forest cover to be maintained at a high level. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the coupled system is conducted, revealing the key factors affecting the global stability and critical transitions of high and low forest cover states.

Landscape fragmentation and regularity lead to decreased carbon stocks in basins: Evidence from century-scale research

Landscapes evolution have significantly altered the Earth's energy balance and biogeochemical cycles, thereby exacerbating climate change. This, in turn, affects surface characteristics and the provision of ecosystem services, especially carbon storage. While recent centuries have witnessed unprecedented landscape changes, limited long-term studies have offered insights into the comparison between present-day features and historical conditions. This study utilized historical reconstruction data and remote sensing imagery to assess landscape evolution and its consequences for carbon stocks over 300 years. Employing multiple regression and random forest models were selected to quantify the influence of key landscape metrics on carbon stocks in the Dongting Lake basin, allowing for a thorough analysis across different sub-basins and land types. The results revealed that intensified human disturbances led to increased landscape fragmentation (+82%), regularity (+56%), and diversity (+37%) within the basin. Moreover, carbon stocks decreased from 4.13 Gt to 3.66 Gt, representing an 11.4% loss, with soil carbon stock experiencing the most considerable reduction (0.24 Gt, 51%). These changes in carbon stock metrics corresponded to shifts in landscape patterns, both undergoing significant transitions at the turn of the 21st century. Meanwhile, fragmentation and regularity played a vital role in explaining carbon stock changes, as their increase contributes to greater carbon losses. Likewise, an increase in landscape diversity correlated with decreased carbon stocks, challenging the prevailing notion that enhanced diversity promotes carbon stocks. The influence of landscape patterns on carbon stocks varies notably across distinct land types. An increase in the dominance of farmland and built-up land led to decreased carbon stocks, while the opposite holds true for forestland. Similarly, a decrease in regularity for farmland, forestland, and built-up land benefits carbon storage, while grassland demonstrates the opposite trend. These findings offer insights for countries and regions in the early stages of development or approaching development, suggesting improvements in land use practices and strategies to address climate change. This involves offsetting land-based carbon emissions through changes in landscape spatial configuration.

A review of social-ecological system vulnerability in desertified regions: Assessment, simulation, and sustainable management

Desertified regions face considerable vulnerability due to the combined effects of climate change and human activities, which threaten regional ecological security and societal development. It is therefore necessary to assess, simulate, and manage the vulnerability of desertified regions from the perspective of the social-ecological system, to support desertification control and sustainable development. This study is a systematic review of the vulnerability of the social-ecological system in desertified regions (SESDR) based on a bibliometric analysis, and a summary of the research progresses in vulnerability assessment, simulation, and sustainable management is provided. It was found that SESDR vulnerability research started relatively late, but has developed rapidly in recent years, with an emphasis on the coupling between natural systems and human activities, and multi-scale interactions and dynamics. Using various indicators at different scales, SESDR vulnerability could be assessed in terms of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability. Modeling the complex interactions among natural and human factors across multiple scales is essential to simulate the vulnerability dynamics of the SESDR. The sustainable management of SESDR vulnerability focuses on rational spatial planning to achieve the maximum benefits, with the right measures in the right places. Four priority research directions were proposed to develop a better understanding of the mechanisms of vulnerability and smart restoration of desertified land. The findings of this study will enable researchers, land managers, and policymakers to develop a more comprehensive understanding of SESDR vulnerability, thereby enabling them to better address the challenges posed by complex resource and environmental issues.

Mapping climate adaptation corridors for biodiversity-A regional-scale case study in Central America

Climate adaptation corridors are widely recognized as important for promoting biodiversity resilience under climate change. Central America is part of the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot, but there have been no regional-scale analyses of potential climate adaptation corridors in Central America. We identified 2375 potential corridors throughout Central America that link lowland protected areas (≤ 500 m) with intact, high-elevation forests (≥ 1500 m) that represent potential climate change refugia. Whereas we found potential corridors in all Central American countries, potential corridors in Panama, Belize, and Honduras were most protected (medians = 64%, 49%, and 47%, respectively) and potential corridors in El Salvador were least protected (median = 10%). We also developed a corridor priority index based on the ecological characteristics and protected status of potential corridors and their associated start and end points. Compared to low- and medium-priority corridors, high-priority corridors (n = 160; top 7% of all corridors) were generally more protected, forested, and distributed across wider elevational gradients and more Key Biodiversity Areas, but also generally linked larger lowland protected areas to target areas that were larger, more protected, and spanned wider elevational gradients. For example, based on median values, high-priority corridors were 9% more protected and overlapped with 2-3 more Key Biodiversity Areas than low- and medium-priority corridors. Although high-elevation targets spanned considerably wider elevational gradients than lowland protected areas (medians = 695 vs. 142 m, respectively) and thus may be more likely to support refugia, they were considerably smaller than lowland protected areas (medians = 11 vs. 50 km2 respectively) and mostly unprotected (median = 4% protection). This initial, regional assessment can help prioritize locations for finer-scale research, conservation, and restoration activities in support of climate adaptation corridors throughout Central America and highlights the need for greater conservation of potential high-elevation refugia.

Multi-objective ecological restoration priority in China: Cost-benefit optimization in different ecological performance regimes based on planetary boundaries

In the context of the "United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration", optimizing spatiotemporal arrangements for ecological restoration is an important approach to enhancing overall socioecological benefits for sustainable development. However, against the background of ecological degradation caused by the human use of most natural resources at levels that have approached or exceeded the safe and sustainable boundaries of ecosystems, it is key to explain how to optimize ecological restoration by classified management and optimal total benefits. In response to these issues, we combined spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics at the national scale in China to construct five ecological performance regimes defined by indicators that use planetary boundaries and ecological pressures which served as the basis for prioritizing ecological restoration areas and implementing zoning control. By integrating habitat conservation, biodiversity, water supply, and restoration cost constraints, seven ecological restoration scenarios were simulated to optimize the spatial layout of ecological restoration projects (ERPs). The results indicated that the provinces with unsustainable freshwater use, climate change, and land use accounted for more than 25%, 66.7%, and 25%, respectively, of the total area. Only 30% of the provinces experienced a decrease in environmental pressure. Based on the ecological performance regimes, ERP sites spanning the past 20 years were identified, and more than 50% of the priority areas were clustered in regime areas with increased ecological stress. As the restoration area targets doubled (40%) from the baseline (20%), a multi-objective scenario presents a trade-off between expanded ERPs in areas with highly beneficial effects and minimal restoration costs. In conclusion, a reasonable classification and management regime is the basis for targeted restoration. Coordinating multiple objectives and costs in ecological restoration is the key to maximizing socio-ecological benefits. Our study offered new perspectives on systematic and sustainable planning for ecological restoration.

Improving climate and biodiversity outcomes through restoration of forest integrity

Targeting degraded areas in forested landscapes for restoration could deliver rapid climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation, improve resilience of forested lands to future climate change, and potentially reduce the trade-offs between nature recovery and agriculture. Although the importance of forest restoration for climate mitigation is acknowledged, current estimates of its climate mitigation potential may be underestimated because they focus predominantly on reforesting cleared areas. We built on recent analyses of forest integrity and unrealized forest biomass potential to examine the potential for restoring the integrity of degraded forests. There are over 1.5 billion ha of forests worldwide that retain 50-80% of their potential biomass. Prioritizing restoration in these areas could deliver rapid biodiversity and climate mitigation benefits, relative to restoring forest on cleared land. We applied a spatial planning approach to demonstrate how restoration interventions can be targeted to support the conservation of high-integrity forest, a potential pathway to the delivery of the 30×30 goal of the Convention on Biodiversity's Global Biodiversity Framework.

Planning a water-constrained ecological restoration pattern to enhance sustainable landscape management in drylands

Ecological restoration is an important approach to improving landscape sustainability. However, ecological restoration in drylands is strongly limited by water resources. Therefore, a technical route for ecological restoration in drylands that creates sustainable landscapes based on those water constraints is needed. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit framework named "Constraint-Pattern-Benefit" to plan ecological restoration patterns in Inner Mongolia, China. Based on a prediction of the ecosystem service (ES) increase under limited evapotranspiration as a water constraint, we constructed 5 landscape sustainability-related strategies with 100 ecological restoration scenarios, which considered fragmentation of restoration locations, distance to city, water consumption, and the allocation scale to determine the spatial arrangement of ecological restoration. Results show that the ES increase potential of ecological restoration under water constraints is distributed in the center of Inner Mongolia. The multi-objective scenario simultaneously achieves 59.1% water yield, 74.2% soil conservation, 57.2% sand fixation, and 52.8% carbon sequestration with 50% restored landscape. Considering the indicators of fragmentation, water consumption, and distance to city decreases the restored landscape fragmentation from 0.44 to 0.26, improves the restoration efficiency by 14.41%, and increases the beneficiary population by 35.5%, respectively. Small-scale allocation can further increase the ES realization efficiency, which is on average 4.8% higher at the city scale than at the provincial scale. Moreover, this approach focuses on the sustainable effect of the spatial arrangement on dryland landscapes at different scales, which provides methodological support for improving the sustainability of drylands.

Optimal restoration for pollination services increases forest cover while doubling agricultural profits

Pollinators are currently facing dramatic declines in abundance and richness across the globe. This can have profound impacts on agriculture, as 75% of globally common food crops benefit from pollination services. As many native bee species require natural areas for nesting, restoration efforts within croplands may be beneficial to support pollinators and enhance agricultural yields. Yet, restoration can be challenging to implement due to large upfront costs and the removal of land from production. Designing sustainable landscapes will require planning approaches that include the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of pollination services flowing from (restored) vegetation into crops. We present a novel planning framework to determine the best spatial arrangement for restoration in agricultural landscapes while accounting for yield improvements over 40 years following restoration. We explored a range of production and conservation goals using a coffee production landscape in Costa Rica as a case study. Our results show that strategic restoration can increase forest cover by approximately 20% while doubling collective landholder profits over 40 years, even when accounting for land taken out of production. We show that restoration can provide immense economic benefits in the long run, which may be pivotal to motivating local landholders to undertake conservation endeavours in pollinator-dependent croplands.

Land-planning management based on multiple ecosystem services and simulation in tropical forests

Forest losses can lead to severe damage to ecosystem services (ESs), especially in the tropics. Tropical forests are widespread in southwestern China, and they experience continual effects of human activities (e.g., rubber boom). However, forest simulations of land planning have not yet been systematically conducted. Based on a future land-use simulation model, here, the spatio-temporal characteristics of four ES (i.e., soil retention, water yield, carbon fixation, and habitat quality) were examined, and three scenarios (i.e., natural development, rubber development, and ecological protection) were designed and evaluated during 2000 for Xishuangbanna (XSBN), southwestern China. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the average values of the ESs declined by 449.1 t for soil retention, 13.4 mm for water yield, 0.1 for habitat quality, and 0.1 kg C/m² for carbon fixation; (2) the four ESs, with the exception of water yield, had synergistic relationships, and trade-off appeared on the margins of these synergistic relationships; (3) compared with the scenarios of natural development and rubber development, the environmental protection scenario was found to have high efficiency for protecting nature reserves and reducing fragmentation; and (4) the intensity of land-use change will accelerate the decrease of ESs, and it is essential for nature reserves and areas of northern XSBN to improve their level of environmental protection. This work not only further enriches the ES research from the ecological environment and land-planning points of view, but it also provides different planning perspectives for ES and forest scenarios. This is useful in methodical approaches to forest sustainability.

Exploring the Relationship between Ecosystem Services under Different Socio-Economic Driving Degrees

The large-scale transformation of natural ecosystems to socio-economic development land types under human activities was a primary reason for the decline of regional ecosystem services. It is a key issue for regional ecosystem planning and management to reveal the relationship between ecosystem services of different land use types under different socio-economic driving degrees. However, the current related research was not in-depth. Based on the land use data of Wuhan City in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study classified land use into three categories according to the different degrees of human activities on natural ecosystem development: the land use of a natural ecosystem (LUNE), the land use of a productive ecosystem (LUPE), and the land use of a socio-economic system (LUSE). The InVEST model was used to simulate five ecosystem services (grain yield, water yield, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water purification), and the spatio-temporal distribution and functional transformation of the three land use types were analyzed. Results showed that with the intensified urban expansion in Wuhan, the LUSE types increased to 2.7 times that of the original. However, the natural land types basically maintained a stable area, coupling with the large-scale transformation between the LUPE and LUSE types. Land use change resulted in significant spatial changes of five ecosystem services, especially carbon storage and habitat quality. The correlation analysis indicated that the five kinds of ecosystem services mainly showed a synergistic relationship, meanwhile the LUSE type denoted the most significant correlation with ecosystem services among these three category types. This study indicated that besides the protection of natural ecosystems, the LUSE type would become the key land use type in the planning and management of improving regional ecological function.

Landscape Conservation Assessment in the Latin American Tropics: Application and Insights from Costa Rica

Landscape quality is an important aspect of conservation and sustainable development, yet holistic assessments of landscapes in the Latin American tropics are scarce. Here we employ an onsite survey across Costa Rica using the Landscape Assessment Protocol (LAP), a rapid assessment method, to assess the conservation condition of landscape views. In a survey of 50 landscape view sites in different parts of the country, LAP’s 15 metrics (evaluation criteria) were effective in providing an index for landscape quality showing a gradient of degradation in response to various modern anthropogenic pressures. The response of the index over a variety of landscape types correlates well with the Human Footprint anthropogenic pressure assessment, an independent land degradation index. Urban and peri-urban landscape types showed the most degraded conditions relative to flatland, coastal, and upland types on all metrics. Despite certain subjective attributes, the assessment method seems effective in providing a quality condition index that may assist in quality characterization and in promoting participation in landscape interpretation, landscape literacy, and landscape-scale conservation initiatives, especially in a region where landscape views (scenic resources) are threatened by widespread land-use changes. Finally, recommendations are made for the further application and testing of LAP, specifically for use in the neotropics.