Efficient, parallelized global optimization of groundwater pumping in a regional aquifer with land subsidence constraints

Can river flow prevent land subsidence in urban areas?

Land subsidence, a silent death, occurs due to various factors like significant reduction in groundwater (GW) levels. It is a widespread phenomenon with irreparable consequences on buildings, infrastructures, and, in severe cases, groundwater aquifers. This study aims to assess the impact of river flow on the acceleration and control of land subsidence in an arid and semi-arid region. To achieve this goal, we analyze the interconnection between GW and SW and investigate the role of the Zayandeh-Rud River's drying up on land subsidence in the Isfahan-Borkhar aquifer in Iran's central plateau. To facilitate this assessment, we utilize the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique to estimate the vertical deformation velocity of the aquifer (average land subsidence rate). The results show that the Isfahan-Borkhar aquifer has experienced a significant annual decline of more than 25 m, with an alarming rate exceeding 0.8 m/year. Our analysis of 31 piezometric wells (P-Wells) from 2000 to 2022 reveals a downward monotonic (in 16 P-Wells) and nonmonotonic (in 12 P-Wells) trend in groundwater table changes. Moreover, the GW table in the P-Wells near the river depends entirely on river flow. Furthermore, our findings indicate that river regulation exerts a dominant role in the control of land subsidence. Consequently, when water flows in the Zayandeh-Rud River, the rate of land subsidence declines significantly, particularly in urban regions. Therefore, maintaining a constant flow of water in the river can prevent or reduce ongoing land subsidence in Isfahan.

Scrutinization of land subsidence rate using a supportive predictive model: Incorporating radar interferometry and ensemble soft-computing

Land subsidence is a huge challenge that land and water resource managers are still facing. Radar datasets revolutionize the way and give us the ability to provide information about it, thanks to their low cost. But identifying the most important drivers need for the modeling process. Machine learning methods are especially top of mind amid the prediction studies of natural hazards and hit new heights over the last couple of years. Hence, putting an efficient approach like integrated radar-and-ensemble-based method into practice for land subsidence rate simulation is not available yet which is the main aim of this research. In this study, the number of 52 pairs of radar images were used to identify subsidence from 2014 to 2019. Then, using the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm the key variables affecting land subsidence were identified among the topographical parameters, aquifer information, land use, hydroclimatic variables, and geological and soil factors. Afterward, three individual machine learning models (including Support Vector Machine, SVM; Gaussian Process, GP; Bayesian Additive Regression Tree, BART) along with three ensemble learning approaches were considered for land subsidence rate modeling. The results indicated that the subsidence varies between 0 and 59 cm in this period. Comparing the Radar results with the permanent geodynamic station exhibited a very strong correlation between the ground station and the radar images (R2 = 0.99, RMSE = 0.008). Parsing the input data by the SA indicated that key drivers are precipitation, elevation, percentage of fine-grained materials in the saturated zone, groundwater withdrawal, distance to road, groundwater decline, and aquifer thickness. The performance comparison indicated that ensemble models perform better than individual models, and among ensemble models, the nonlinear ensemble approach (i.e., BART model combination) provided better performance (RMSE = 0.061, RSR = 0.42, R2 = 0.83, PBIAS = 2.2). Also, the distribution shape of the probability density function in the non-linear ensemble model is much closer to the observations. Results indicated that the presence of significant fine-grained materials in unconsolidated aquifer systems can clarify the response of the aquifer system to groundwater decline, low recharge, and subsequent land subsidence. Therefore, the interaction between these factors can be very dangerous and intensify subsidence.

A data-driven approach to exploring the causal relationships between distributed pumping activities and aquifer drawdown

Groundwater depletion, typically caused by the distributed pumping activities of multiple stakeholders (i.e., water users) that share a hydrologically connected aquifer, has led to severe environmental and ecological problems in many river basins worldwide. Conventionally, the effects of pumping on aquifer depletion are quantified using well hydraulics or physically based hydrological models in groundwater management. However, the derivation of well hydraulics-based analytical solutions requires numerous simplifying assumptions, while the construction and calibration of a physically based groundwater flow model require detailed information about the subsurface properties, which are subject to large uncertainties. In this study, we develop a novel modeling framework that does not rely on well hydraulics or groundwater flow models. The proposed framework integrates (1) a deep learning model that captures the spatiotemporal variations in the aquifer in response to distributed pumping activities in multiple well fields and (2) a statistical causal inference model that identifies the causal networks among stakeholders to quantify the causal effects of individual pumping activities on aquifer depletion. The proposed framework is tested on a synthetic case study site with well fields that have various spatial distributions and pumping rates. The modeling results show that the deep learning method can effectively capture the water table dynamics influenced by distributed pumping activities with R² >90 % for all observation data. More importantly, our model is capable of assessing the causal networks between the drawdown of water table and the pumping activities of multiple well fields and quantifying their causal strengths. These results suggest that our modeling framework can be used to explicitly assess the extent to which each individual stakeholder's pumping activities contribute to aquifer depletion at the system level. The concepts and techniques developed in this study can be used to resolve classic externality problems in the context of common-pool groundwater management.

Comparison of parallel optimization algorithms on computationally expensive groundwater remediation designs

Contaminated groundwater resources threaten human health and destroy ecosystems in many areas worldwide. Groundwater remediation is crucial for environmental recovery; however, it can be cost prohibitive. Planning a cost-effective remediation design can take a long time, as it may involve the evaluation of many management decisions, and the corresponding simulation models are computationally demanding. Parallel optimization can facilitate much faster management decisions for cost-effective groundwater remediation design using complex pollutant transport models. However, the efficiency of different parallel optimization algorithms varies depending on both the search strategy and parallelism. In this paper, we show the performance of a parallel surrogate-based optimization algorithm called parallel stochastic radial basis function (p-SRBF), which has not been previously used on contaminant remediation problems. The two case problems involve two superfund sites (i.e., the Umatilla Aquifer and Blaine Aquifer), and one objective evaluation takes 5 and 30 min for the two problems, respectively. Exceptional speedup (superlinear) is achieved with 4 to 16 cores, and excellent speedup is achieved using up to 64 cores, obtaining a good solution at 80 % efficiency. We compare our p-SRBF with three different parallel derivative-free optimization algorithms, including genetic algorithm, mesh adaptive direct search, and asynchronous parallel pattern search optimization, in terms of objective quality, computational reduction and robust behavior across multiple trials. p-SRBF outperforms the other algorithms, as it finds the best solution in both the Umatilla and Blaine cases and reduces the computational budget by at least 50 % in both problems. Additionally, statistical comparisons show that the p-SRBF results are better than those of the alternative algorithms at the 5 % significant level. This study enriches theoretical real-world groundwater remediation methods. The results demonstrate that p-SRBF is promising for environmental management problems that involve computationally expensive models.